Latest / Stephanomics / What Will a Kamala Harris Economy Look Like?

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What Will a Kamala Harris Economy Look Like? · Stephanomics

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
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Speaker 2: I have that two thousand and eight feeling. The excitement
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Speaker 2: is real. I think it's happening from the ground up.
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Speaker 3: I feel two thousand and eight excitement right now, and
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Speaker 3: I think we have a real opportunity here America.
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Speaker 4: Hope is making a comeback. Welcome to our Democratic National
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Speaker 4: Convention edition of voter Nomics, the Bloomberg podcast where politics
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Speaker 4: and Markets collide. All year, we've been talking and talking
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Speaker 4: about how voters around the world have the ability to
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Speaker 4: move markets, countries, and economies like never before in twenty
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Speaker 4: twenty four, and we're focusing now on US voters ahead
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Speaker 4: of the November election. I'm Stephanie Flanders, hosting from Chicago,
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Speaker 4: where the convention is underway, and with me from the
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Speaker 4: Bloomberg White House team. Very glad to say senior reporter
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Speaker 4: Josh Wingrove, thanks for being here, Thank you for having me. Well,
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Speaker 4: we're taking this on Wednesday, we should say, so it's
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Speaker 4: more than halfway through the convention. I think we're knee
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Speaker 4: deep in vibes. There's been a lot of discussion about
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Speaker 4: the vibes. So it's not a week for policy wonts,
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Speaker 4: but we have been doing our best to resist that
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Speaker 4: with round tables with some key figures in the party
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Speaker 4: and advisors to Kamala Harris at the Bloomberg Hub where
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Speaker 4: we're sitting right now, which is just down the road
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Speaker 4: from the convention hall. But inside, I would say it's
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Speaker 4: been a week for Democrats to get all fired up
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Speaker 4: and potentially excite some voters sitting at home with this
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Speaker 4: just very recently improved ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walks. Josh,
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Speaker 4: you are very young, but you're not so young. I
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Speaker 4: think you probably still can remain the two thousand and
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Speaker 4: eight is making a comeback here.
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Speaker 2: Not as young as I used to be. I remember
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Speaker 2: two thousand and eight very well. Hope is making a
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Speaker 2: comeback if you talk to the people here, which is
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Speaker 2: to say, Democrats are indulging themselves and letting them speak aloud.
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Speaker 2: This thought that, oh my gosh, could the sort of
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Speaker 2: broad coalition that elected and swept Obama to power sixteen
2:24
Speaker 2: years ago come together again? And of course that's a
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Speaker 2: big change from a month ago when Democrats were pretty
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Speaker 2: despondent in sort of a public friendly war about whether
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Speaker 2: to you know, dump or pressure Joe Biden to step away.
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Speaker 2: But there is a sense that Harris has momentum, and
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Speaker 2: in particular, I think we're seeing that sort of change
2:43
Speaker 2: expectations depending on what you ask. Certainly, in the House,
2:47
Speaker 2: Democrats seem very confident that they're going to have a
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Speaker 2: really good shot at taking back the House of Representatives,
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Speaker 2: making Kakim Jeffries the speaker. And from there it gets
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Speaker 2: a little mess here. And so we you know, we've talked,
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Speaker 2: for instance here with the Pennsylvania governor. He thinks his
3:02
Speaker 2: state is both the tipping point state, which is, you know,
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Speaker 2: to say, the one that will decide things and a
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Speaker 2: toss up. And so it just goes to show you,
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Speaker 2: like how we're really down to the wire here. But
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Speaker 2: you're right, from a policy perspective, it's you know, it's
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Speaker 2: not just a ViBe's election at the convention. We're having
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Speaker 2: a ViBe's election in general.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I was very struck watching the former President
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Speaker 4: Obama on Tuesday night his speech here in Chicago, which
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Speaker 4: definitely had allusions to the electrifying one that he gave
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Speaker 4: in Boston in two thousand and four. As a little note,
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Speaker 4: Senator I was lucky enough to that was the last
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Speaker 4: convention I was at. But as you say, there's no
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Speaker 4: getting around the fact, even with all these great vibes,
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Speaker 4: the country is still split down the middle. And you
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Speaker 4: have maybe forty six percent of voters who had died
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Speaker 4: in the world supporters Donald Trump, maybe even a bit
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Speaker 4: more enthusiastic now than they were a month ago, and
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Speaker 4: something close to that, strongly supporting the Democrats and certainly
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Speaker 4: opposing Donald Trump. So just that small middle ground to
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Speaker 4: play for. You mentioned Governor Josh Shapiro. We had an
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Speaker 4: event with him that you were at here in the
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Speaker 4: Hub just this morning, and you know, he's the governor
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Speaker 4: of the must win swingy as state of all and
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Speaker 4: this is how he described the situation.
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Speaker 5: Our last two presidential election races in Pennsylvania settled by
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Speaker 5: about a point or less forty four thousand votes and
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Speaker 5: eighty thousand votes in a state of thirteen million people
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Speaker 5: over nine million registered voters. So the fact that races
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Speaker 5: are close in Pennsylvania is really not something that is
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Speaker 5: surprising as we look forward with that history, I think
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Speaker 5: it's important to note that the gap that existed between
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Speaker 5: Trump and Biden has really been closed. I think your
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Speaker 5: outlets have all done polling, maybe it's plus one minus one.
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Speaker 5: I think we're statistically even at this point. And what
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Speaker 5: I think Vice President Harris and Governor Wallas have done
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Speaker 5: really effectively is build the coalition back together and be
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Speaker 5: in a position where we're what seventy seven days seventy
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Speaker 5: eight days out and really be, as I describe it,
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Speaker 5: on the forty nine yard line in Pennsylvania. You can
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Speaker 5: pick up forty eight or forty nine yards. It's that
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Speaker 5: last yard and a half to get on the other
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Speaker 5: side of the field that is really really tough. How
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Speaker 5: do you do that? Obviously, we've got important urban centers
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Speaker 5: in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The Philly suburbs are incredibly important,
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Speaker 5: and as we proved in my election and others have
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Speaker 5: as well, these rural areas are areas where Democrats have
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Speaker 5: to compete. We know in twenty sixteen we didn't do
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Speaker 5: as well as we needed to in those areas. I
5:40
Speaker 5: will tell you I think those rural areas are fired
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Speaker 5: up for Donald Trump. I don't think we should pretend
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Speaker 5: that they're not. But what I have experienced in just
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Speaker 5: the last few weeks that Kama Harris has been leading
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Speaker 5: the ticket is when I'm in those communities and I
5:57
Speaker 5: camp out there, I spend a lot of time there
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Speaker 5: as governor. They'll come over to me and say, hey,
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Speaker 5: what do you think of her? You know her, what's
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Speaker 5: the deal? And I say that in no way to
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Speaker 5: be disparaging. I say that because there's a genuine interest
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Speaker 5: and curiosity in her candidacy. And that's a good sign.
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Speaker 5: I'll tell you what else is a really good sign.
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Speaker 5: She and Tim showed up there. What was it three
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Speaker 5: four days ago? I think it was on Sunday, if
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Speaker 5: I'm not mistaken. In Beaver County. They went to one
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Speaker 5: of these rural communities, think like kind of rural area
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Speaker 5: outside of Pittsburgh, and they went and talked about cutting costs,
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Speaker 5: and they went and talked about economic issues. If you
6:35
Speaker 5: remember back, you know, we all remember Barack Obama having
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Speaker 5: huge rallies in Philly. What a lot of people don't
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Speaker 5: remember is his first rally was in Beaver County. That's
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Speaker 5: a county the Democrats have been losing for years. I won,
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Speaker 5: and that's an area where we have to be competitive.
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Speaker 5: And so the fact that people are curious about her candidcy,
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Speaker 5: the fact that she showed up there and talked about
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Speaker 5: issues on their minds. Really really gives me a lot
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Speaker 5: of hope and OPTI miser for that last that last
7:01
Speaker 5: yard and a half. It's so difficult to come by
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Speaker 5: in our stay.
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Speaker 4: Gummor Shapiro was was sort of cautiously optimistic. He saw
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Speaker 4: a lot of energy on the ground, but that there's
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Speaker 4: a lot more for them to do, right.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, And Harris herself is trying to pump the brakes
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Speaker 2: as well, because it's good to be confident, but complacency
7:19
Speaker 2: is a different animal. That's what they're worried about. You know,
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Speaker 2: I think this is all happening at unprecedented speed. I
7:28
Speaker 2: think we shouldn't lose sight of that. I mean, you know,
7:30
Speaker 2: one of the arguments a month and a half ago
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Speaker 2: was that they're simply for keeping Biden, was that there
7:34
Speaker 2: simply wasn't time to build the plane in mid air
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Speaker 2: that they are now building. And so the you know,
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Speaker 2: I think for Harris, she has inherited a party that
7:43
Speaker 2: has done a couple of things. Number One, rallied completely
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Speaker 2: around her in the matter of an hour, it felt
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Speaker 2: like on that Sunday. Another thing is that her position
7:53
Speaker 2: at the top of the ticket has also really taken
7:55
Speaker 2: a lot of states off board that were competitive now,
7:58
Speaker 2: so we're gonna have a more focused election, whereas previously
8:01
Speaker 2: Trump was thinking he was going to break through in
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Speaker 2: you know, Minnesota, Virginia, maybe New York, New Jersey and
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Speaker 2: what might be sort of a fantastical.
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Speaker 4: That's so we're going to see a lot of big
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Speaker 4: rallies in.
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Speaker 2: So we're snabbing right back down to what it was
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Speaker 2: about seven or eight swing states. I think broadly position
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Speaker 2: for Harris now. The question is how much meat do
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Speaker 2: I want to put on this bone. She has taken
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Speaker 2: steps to keep doors open, not close them, including if
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Speaker 2: that leaves egg on her face by saying forget what
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Speaker 2: I said five years ago, I actually believe the opposite now.
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Speaker 2: So I think that is the level set that we
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Speaker 2: should expect for the next seven years so days whatever
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Speaker 2: the campaign will be, which, by the way, in other states,
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Speaker 2: it's only half that with early voting kicking in something
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Speaker 2: soon here, I would expect her to continue to risk
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Speaker 2: embarrassment by backtracking on policies to open pathways for her
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Speaker 2: or leave open the question of what she things, rather
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Speaker 2: than her pinning a policy list on the wall and
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Speaker 2: saying this is what I stand for. It they don't
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Speaker 2: think that's their path.
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Speaker 4: That was interesting. So we had We're sitting in the
9:08
Speaker 4: room where we've had some of these events at the
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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Hub, and there were two quite senior policy advisers,
9:13
Speaker 4: d Kamala Harris who spoke to us, Harris who spoke
9:15
Speaker 4: to us just a few hours ago, one of whom
9:17
Speaker 4: had been her chief of staff when she was in
9:19
Speaker 4: the Senate. And it was striking how little information they
9:24
Speaker 4: could give when you talk about putting meat on the bones.
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Speaker 4: We had this kind of sketch of her economic proposals
9:31
Speaker 4: last week. When are we going to find out how
9:33
Speaker 4: she's going to pay for this renewal of the child
9:36
Speaker 4: tax credit and the support for homeowners? And then I
9:40
Speaker 4: realized that they were referring to that speech as their
9:43
Speaker 4: most detailed speech that they were going to give, really
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Speaker 4: and it just brought home to me how many questions
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Speaker 4: there are unanswered, and crucially this debate with Donald Trump
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Speaker 4: on September tenth. I mean, we were asking these advisers
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Speaker 4: about foreign policy, Josh, do you expect to have any
10:04
Speaker 4: substance on what President Kamala Harris how she would approach
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Speaker 4: foreign policy between now and the debate, I.
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Speaker 2: Think it's a coin flip about whether they're going to
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Speaker 2: try to put something in the window before the debate.
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Speaker 2: What they have said is look at her record, So
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Speaker 2: let's talk about a record on foreign policy. Hawk on Ukraine,
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Speaker 2: for sure, she would continue Biden's approach of seeing it
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Speaker 2: as a priority for the US not only to send
10:28
Speaker 2: support to Ukraine directly, but to continue to try to
10:31
Speaker 2: muster an alliance and sort of global coalition to support
10:36
Speaker 2: Ukraine in its fight against Russia. So I think that
10:39
Speaker 2: one is clear. I don't expect an in daylight on
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Speaker 2: that one. In Gaza, it's more murky. She has tried
10:45
Speaker 2: to sell the same policy as Biden in a different way.
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Speaker 2: For instance, she calls for a ceasefire and then says
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Speaker 2: Hamas has to agree to it, whereas Biden says Hamas
10:55
Speaker 2: has to agree to the ceasefire. So it's just little
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Speaker 2: differences like this. But yeah, difference not really a difference.
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Speaker 2: There's a rhetorical difference. But in their live's election, rhetoric
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Speaker 2: is perhaps everything. But you're right, we were sitting here
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Speaker 2: looking at, you know, this small bone with flicks of
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Speaker 2: meat on it and saying where's the rest of it?
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Speaker 2: And they're saying it's right in front of you. Enjoyed.
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Speaker 4: This is the detail to go back to where we started.
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Speaker 4: But you had raised a wild card in that conversation
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Speaker 4: with the advisors, which I have to admit I'd not
11:22
Speaker 4: been focusing so much on because it sounds so so
11:26
Speaker 4: much wishful thinking. But you know, this possibility that the
11:29
Speaker 4: Democrats could win the Senate and House of Representatives as
11:33
Speaker 4: well as the presidency, is that really plausible? I mean,
11:36
Speaker 4: certainly the people who had taught me through some of
11:39
Speaker 4: these races earlier in the year, it just looked like
11:44
Speaker 4: a big ass, particularly in the Senate, because every Senate
11:47
Speaker 4: seat being contested pretty much is democratic. They can't afford
11:50
Speaker 4: to lose even one.
11:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a bad map for them this year. They're
11:54
Speaker 2: going to lose West Virginia. They have fifty one seats.
11:56
Speaker 4: Now, I guess we should just remind people outside the
11:59
Speaker 4: states way the elections.
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Speaker 2: Wait, yeah, why the map is the crowd? This is
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Speaker 2: the grash course. They there are very few senators in
12:08
Speaker 2: America who represent a party other than the dominant party
12:13
Speaker 2: in that state. In other words, you got red states.
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Speaker 2: You have blue states. They didn't have two red senators
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Speaker 2: or two blue senators. Very few divided. West Virginia's divide
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Speaker 2: and Joe Manchiin isn't running again, and that is no
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Speaker 2: one expects that to seat to stick with the Democrats.
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Speaker 2: It'll flip hard to the Republicans.
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Speaker 4: Because many people didn't consider him to be a temper
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Speaker 4: correct correct.
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Speaker 2: He was sort of a dying breed of red state democrat.
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Speaker 2: And so now that the starting point is fifty to fifty,
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Speaker 2: it basically all comes down to more or less Ohio
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Speaker 2: and Montana, two red states where Democrats have incumbent senators
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Speaker 2: shared Brown and Ohio John Tester and Montana. We're trying
12:49
Speaker 2: to hold on basically running at arms length from Harris
12:52
Speaker 2: and even more and when it was Biden, they were
12:54
Speaker 2: running it miles length from Biden, trying to sort of
12:59
Speaker 2: squeak by still against Democratic headwinds that have been shifting.
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Speaker 2: So can it happened for Democrats? Can this wave that
13:09
Speaker 2: is maybe building or maybe cresting, It's unclear. If it's
13:13
Speaker 2: just a building wave that will continue as momentum, then
13:17
Speaker 2: Democrats might become the dog that caught the car and
13:19
Speaker 2: then suddenly they in that scenario would be almost certain
13:23
Speaker 2: that they would have the House by a fairly healthy margin.
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Speaker 2: Maybe Harris gets selected, and then of course, maybe they
13:28
Speaker 2: sweep by in the Senate with a fifty to fifty
13:30
Speaker 2: tie that the Vice President Tim Walls, Harris's running mate,
13:33
Speaker 2: could split ties in so they can ram stuff through.
13:36
Speaker 2: Suddenly they get what's called a reconciliation bill, which is
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Speaker 2: a grab bag of stuff that they can push through.
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Speaker 2: You can do one of those a year or so,
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Speaker 2: and this, you know, now it's a question of wish list.
13:47
Speaker 2: Right So right now they're like quite a long way
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Speaker 2: away from that, correct Right So, right now, beating Donald
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Speaker 2: Trump is enough. And we have seen not a hint
13:58
Speaker 2: really of policy dispute among Democrats at this convention. They
14:03
Speaker 2: are perfectly fine to break out the same song sheet
14:06
Speaker 2: and you have a show of unity. They can continue
14:10
Speaker 2: to do that quite easily if Republicans hold at least
14:12
Speaker 2: one chamber, because you have a boogeyman, and by definition
14:15
Speaker 2: you're constrained by what has to be a by part
14:17
Speaker 2: as an agreement. If they catch the car, if they
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Speaker 2: get all three, if this is some kind of wave
14:22
Speaker 2: that's been building, then Harris is going to have to
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Speaker 2: decide what she.
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Speaker 4: I think lack of opposition is probably a problem that
14:31
Speaker 4: they would like to face. But I'm struck that it's
14:35
Speaker 4: the one thing, even with all these good vibes, it's
14:37
Speaker 4: the one thing that they do seem to be superstitious
14:41
Speaker 4: about even thinking about. In the UK and actually I
14:44
Speaker 4: think quite a lot of other countries, the custom in
14:46
Speaker 4: any election is not to jinx it and never talk
14:48
Speaker 4: as if you assume.
14:49
Speaker 2: That you're going to win, or assume.
14:52
Speaker 4: Here it's mandatory even if you don't have a chance
14:54
Speaker 4: in hell. You have to talk describe yourself as the
14:56
Speaker 4: next president or the next senator. So we will see,
14:59
Speaker 4: but gosh, thank you very much.
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Speaker 2: Thank you.
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Speaker 4: So on the sidelines of the convention, in my continued
15:07
Speaker 4: efforts to inject substance into the vibes, I sat down
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Speaker 4: with Heather Bouchet, an economist who previously served as the
15:16
Speaker 4: president and CEO of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth
15:19
Speaker 4: and at the Center for American Progress, among other things.
15:23
Speaker 4: She does now currently serve as a member of President
15:25
Speaker 4: Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisors, but she spoke to
15:29
Speaker 4: me very much in her personal capacity, and what I
15:33
Speaker 4: wanted to hear from her was what she thought about
15:36
Speaker 4: this ticket and the emerging economic plan in so far
15:40
Speaker 4: as we've seen it from Vice President Harris Heather, thank
15:47
Speaker 4: you very much for doing this. I should also ask
15:50
Speaker 4: you with this your first convention.
15:52
Speaker 3: No, this is my second convention. But now I'm very
15:54
Speaker 3: excited to be here, and you know, God to hear
15:58
Speaker 3: the presidents speak last night and to see actually the
16:00
Speaker 3: Vice president speaking. You know, she talked a little bit
16:03
Speaker 3: about her economics. But it's very exciting to be able
16:06
Speaker 3: to be a part of this historic moment.
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Speaker 4: And did you always know you were coming? I just
16:09
Speaker 4: wondered whether if you, like me, were thinking a couple
16:11
Speaker 4: of months ago that this was not necessarily going to
16:13
Speaker 4: be a fun event to attend.
16:14
Speaker 3: I had made my reservations many many months ago. I
16:18
Speaker 3: think it's important, especially for those on the ECON team
16:22
Speaker 3: in general. You know, I think about economics, to see
16:25
Speaker 3: what people are talking about in terms of the economy,
16:27
Speaker 3: what are the questions on people's minds, and that helps
16:30
Speaker 3: us think about what kinds of policy issues we want
16:32
Speaker 3: to focus on.
16:32
Speaker 2: Now.
16:33
Speaker 4: I mean, you are you're sitting in the White House
16:35
Speaker 4: or I guess adjoining the White House because most people
16:38
Speaker 4: end up there's no room in the White House for
16:40
Speaker 4: most of the officials who work there. I'm fascinated just
16:42
Speaker 4: on a personal level, how it's been to be sitting
16:45
Speaker 4: there the last few weeks as the election has just
16:47
Speaker 4: been turned on its head. I mean, how has that
16:49
Speaker 4: felt like on the inside.
16:51
Speaker 3: Well, I can see a couple of things. I Mean,
16:54
Speaker 3: the reality is is that the economy is this huge
16:57
Speaker 3: HiT's this huge beast, and there's so much that has
16:59
Speaker 3: been moving forward, and so I have been really focused on,
17:03
Speaker 3: you know, watching where the numbers are coming in, what's
17:05
Speaker 3: happening with jobs and inflation and all of these sorts
17:08
Speaker 3: of questions, and you know, in thinking about how the
17:11
Speaker 3: policy agenda that the President and the Vice President put
17:14
Speaker 3: out many months ago when they put forth the budget,
17:18
Speaker 3: they are teeing up a whole set of policies that
17:21
Speaker 3: we want to do to make sure that we continue
17:23
Speaker 3: to see an economy that delivers for working families. So
17:28
Speaker 3: those are some of the questions that continue to be
17:31
Speaker 3: important in front and center.
17:33
Speaker 4: Regardless of he's on the top of the ticket. All Right,
17:35
Speaker 4: it sounds like I'm not gonna be able to get
17:36
Speaker 4: you on all the sort of personal misgivings or not
17:40
Speaker 4: of what's happened. But I mean on that point, and
17:44
Speaker 4: you sounded a little bit like it even just then.
17:46
Speaker 4: You know, one criticism that's been leveled at the was
17:49
Speaker 4: leveled at the Biden Harris campaign was that there was
17:52
Speaker 4: too much focus in those campaign speeches on the past achievements,
17:57
Speaker 4: and he almost seemed to be sometimes telling people they
18:00
Speaker 4: should feel better about the economy than they actually were.
18:03
Speaker 4: I mean, do you recognize that as a criticism.
18:06
Speaker 3: Gosh, looking back over the past four years, the United
18:09
Speaker 3: States and around the world, we've all been through the Ringer,
18:12
Speaker 3: this global pandemic. It upended economies. We saw how because
18:17
Speaker 3: of these global supply chains that were so fragile, we
18:21
Speaker 3: had these really big price bikes because you know, people
18:25
Speaker 3: couldn't get to work and things couldn't get made, and
18:27
Speaker 3: we saw all of these challenges, and I think what
18:29
Speaker 3: I've learned as an economist is that it takes a
18:32
Speaker 3: while for that to work through an economy. But it
18:36
Speaker 3: also you know, I think you hear people being frustrated
18:39
Speaker 3: that things aren't better as quickly as maybe they would like,
18:45
Speaker 3: or and I think this is really an important piece
18:47
Speaker 3: of the puzzle for a lot of people. The economy
18:50
Speaker 3: wasn't working before the pandemic. You know, here in the
18:52
Speaker 3: United States, we've had half century of rising economic inequality.
18:56
Speaker 3: Families were struggling with affording care and education and in
19:00
Speaker 3: housing and all of these things pre pandemic. And there
19:03
Speaker 3: was this moment during the pandemic where policymakers gay families
19:07
Speaker 3: a lot of support, and a lot of people change jobs,
19:10
Speaker 3: and there's a lot of opportunity. We've actually seen three
19:13
Speaker 3: years now of historic new business startups. And yet I
19:18
Speaker 3: think you know now that much of that aid has
19:21
Speaker 3: started to fade or has been pulled back. I think
19:25
Speaker 3: people are sort of like, well, wait a minute, how
19:28
Speaker 3: is this new economy going to work for me and
19:30
Speaker 3: my family? And so I think the fact that a
19:32
Speaker 3: lot of investments have been made, but they aren't quite
19:35
Speaker 3: being being felt yet.
19:37
Speaker 4: Even in a normal circumstance, if you had vice president
19:39
Speaker 4: running for president, there's always that balance that he or
19:43
Speaker 4: she would have to strike between talking up the achievements
19:47
Speaker 4: of the administration they were involved with, but also pointing
19:50
Speaker 4: to the unfinished business. And I guess that I guess
19:53
Speaker 4: there's a feeling that with the Biden campaign that there
19:57
Speaker 4: was too much focus on all the great things you've done,
20:00
Speaker 4: the big bits of unfinished business. I mean, you've touched
20:02
Speaker 4: on some of them.
20:03
Speaker 3: So first of all, I think one big piece of
20:06
Speaker 3: unfinished business that I think does need to be mentioned
20:09
Speaker 3: is that so much of this administration has done has
20:12
Speaker 3: been about investing in the United States all across America,
20:16
Speaker 3: investing in communities, investing in new manufacturing capacity, investing in
20:21
Speaker 3: making and clean energy economy. All of that needs to continue.
20:24
Speaker 3: But there are these big ticket items that we haven't
20:27
Speaker 3: been able to that still need work. And so one
20:30
Speaker 3: of those, of course is housing. We've seen challenges in
20:34
Speaker 3: insufficient housing supply. We've seen that it just did cost
20:37
Speaker 3: too much for families. It was really exciting to see
20:40
Speaker 3: the Vice President come out with a set of policies
20:43
Speaker 3: it would increase housing supply. We also need to make
20:46
Speaker 3: sure that for those families that have kids that in particular,
20:51
Speaker 3: that they get the help and the support they need.
20:53
Speaker 3: And so I was also really excited to see that
20:55
Speaker 3: the Vice President came out with a pretty robust plan
20:58
Speaker 3: to provide an expansion the child tax credit. For children
21:02
Speaker 3: in their first.
21:03
Speaker 4: Year of RUSS but also quite expensive.
21:05
Speaker 3: Certainly well supporting families.
21:06
Speaker 4: You didn't talk about how it's going to be paid for.
21:08
Speaker 3: She did talk about, though, increasing the corporate tax rate
21:12
Speaker 3: to twenty eight percent, which has been a part of
21:14
Speaker 3: the budget that she and the President worked one.
21:16
Speaker 4: Pile of the budget before you committed to increasing the
21:19
Speaker 4: under the child tax credit.
21:21
Speaker 3: It was, but I think it's signals that she has
21:24
Speaker 3: committed to making sure that we fix the tax system
21:29
Speaker 3: in the United States so that it is more fair,
21:31
Speaker 3: so that corporations pay their fair share. And you know,
21:34
Speaker 3: we'll have to see where her campaign goes and everything
21:37
Speaker 3: that certainly is a part of the budget. In that
21:39
Speaker 3: process which she has been a part of in the
21:40
Speaker 3: White House, there has been a robust agenda to raise
21:43
Speaker 3: taxes at the top. The President has long made this
21:46
Speaker 3: commitment to not increase taxes on I mean, making anyone
21:49
Speaker 3: making less than four hundred thousand dollars a year. But
21:51
Speaker 3: what the President is shown through those budgets is that
21:54
Speaker 3: you actually can do that math. It is possible to
21:57
Speaker 3: have a robust tax agenda to be able to pay
21:59
Speaker 3: for things like making sure that families have that tax benefit.
22:04
Speaker 3: And of course that's in contrast to the proposals that
22:08
Speaker 3: you know, Donald Trump is put forward, which are just
22:11
Speaker 3: you know, again and again tax cuts for the very
22:13
Speaker 3: wealthiest on the backs of the middle class that are
22:17
Speaker 3: not going to lead to the kinds of growth or
22:19
Speaker 3: improvements in middle class well being that I think we
22:23
Speaker 3: will see under.
22:24
Speaker 4: I mean, one of his proposals which was not so
22:28
Speaker 4: directly focused on the rich and was many economists that
22:33
Speaker 4: just sort of greeted as being totally stupid, was about
22:37
Speaker 4: not taxing tips. And now Kamala Harris has also endorsed
22:41
Speaker 4: that proposal, So I mean, that is one that surely
22:44
Speaker 4: is an economist, you wouldn't necessarily think it was a
22:47
Speaker 4: good idea.
22:48
Speaker 3: Well, certainly, you know the vice president's come out for
22:51
Speaker 3: the President's come out for it. I think that there
22:53
Speaker 3: has long been a challenge for low wage workers in
22:56
Speaker 3: this country, and you know, certainly both the President and
22:59
Speaker 3: Vice President been very clear that we need to raise
23:01
Speaker 3: them inimum wage. We need to make sure that those
23:03
Speaker 3: workers that you know serve food for us in restaurants
23:08
Speaker 3: alocassic country, and you know, make sure that you're.
23:11
Speaker 4: Going to cut taxes just if it's called a tip,
23:13
Speaker 4: but not if it's called regular wages.
23:16
Speaker 3: This is part of a larger package to make sure
23:20
Speaker 3: that those workers are paid a fair and days pay.
23:23
Speaker 4: Another proposal that was in her speech in North Carolina recently,
23:27
Speaker 4: which was the sort of first hints at some of
23:30
Speaker 4: her economic proposals, was as a push against price gouging,
23:36
Speaker 4: which where she seemed to suggest certainly in the speech
23:38
Speaker 4: she talked about price controls in groceries and key goods.
23:43
Speaker 4: So I'm just again that's something where economists, even people
23:46
Speaker 4: who've done relatively little economists economics, just doesn't sound like
23:50
Speaker 4: a good idea when something is in short supply to
23:53
Speaker 4: stop producers from raising the price.
23:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean, I'll see a couple of things
23:58
Speaker 3: on this. I mean, first of all, now I think
24:00
Speaker 3: what she was, what I heard her talking about the
24:02
Speaker 3: speech and the fact she and the stuff that she
24:04
Speaker 3: wrote about there is that you know, we know that
24:06
Speaker 3: prices are too high.
24:08
Speaker 2: We know that.
24:08
Speaker 3: You know, we've seen over the past year grocery prices
24:10
Speaker 3: have increased by just over percent one point one percent.
24:13
Speaker 3: That's down from increasing by thirteen percent, you know, back
24:16
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two. So certainly there's been progress on that,
24:19
Speaker 3: but we have seen that the groceries have not brought
24:22
Speaker 3: prices down, And I think what she has been focused
24:25
Speaker 3: on is that there are too many corporate actors that
24:28
Speaker 3: have been acting in bad fate. They haven't been passing
24:31
Speaker 3: on their lower prices onto consumers. And of course it
24:34
Speaker 3: is the case that there are price gouging laws and
24:36
Speaker 3: states all across the country, including in Texas. And in fact,
24:41
Speaker 3: what she has proposed is similar to what Republicans in
24:45
Speaker 3: the Senate have proposed. Now we know that in this economy,
24:49
Speaker 3: making sure that markets are competitive so that they can
24:53
Speaker 3: benefit consumers and workers and families and communities is a
24:56
Speaker 3: really important part of the economic agenda. Things have become
24:59
Speaker 3: far tooconomically concentrated, and it does mean that making sure
25:03
Speaker 3: that bad faith actors can't take advantage of the situation
25:06
Speaker 3: is a really important part of the policy agenda.
25:08
Speaker 4: I guess that just seems a bit of a disconnect
25:10
Speaker 4: because a lot of the discussions, the sort of explanations
25:12
Speaker 4: we've had since you know, she talked in the speech
25:14
Speaker 4: about price controls, we talked about groceries. It was in
25:17
Speaker 4: the context of talking about the kind of things you've
25:19
Speaker 4: just talked about, you know, the big rise in grocery
25:21
Speaker 4: prices over the last few years. But then when when
25:24
Speaker 4: her advisors have spoken about the details, she suggested that
25:27
Speaker 4: it would really only be in very specific sort of
25:30
Speaker 4: natural disaster hurricane in the local market. You stop the
25:35
Speaker 4: local grocery from like gouging the people there, and that's
25:38
Speaker 4: that we're doing that, which arguably you could do anyway
25:41
Speaker 4: with the rules that are already in place. It is
25:43
Speaker 4: very different from addressing the overall rise in the grocery
25:47
Speaker 4: prices over the last couple of years. So it sort
25:49
Speaker 4: of feels like there's a disconnect between the rhetorics surrounding it,
25:52
Speaker 4: and then when cornered what the proposal actually is.
25:55
Speaker 3: Well, I think that we start from understanding that the
25:57
Speaker 3: pandemic was different, right. We know that that led to
26:00
Speaker 3: a lot of supply side challenges, and we know that,
26:03
Speaker 3: you know, and again there's there are laws around the
26:05
Speaker 3: country on price gouging, because at some points in time,
26:09
Speaker 3: there are challenges in these markets, in various kinds of markets.
26:12
Speaker 3: But it sounds like her proposal is focused on making
26:15
Speaker 3: sure that there aren't bad faith actors and that the
26:18
Speaker 3: federal government has the capacity to take steps. And again
26:21
Speaker 3: this is consistent with Senate, with proposals that Republicans in
26:25
Speaker 3: the Senate have also put forward.
26:27
Speaker 4: You know, you look at some of these proposals, for
26:30
Speaker 4: example on housing, you know, many people would applaud it.
26:33
Speaker 4: They talk about it being a ymbi agenda, you know,
26:36
Speaker 4: saying yes in my backyard, pushing through building of housing
26:40
Speaker 4: and increasing the supply as well as helping on the
26:43
Speaker 4: demands of helping people of fort housing. It's a pretty
26:48
Speaker 4: activist agenda, and it involves kind of going into local
26:50
Speaker 4: areas and pushing through development plans. At the same time
26:55
Speaker 4: as you're putt quite a lot of money into people's
26:56
Speaker 4: pockets through the child tax credit. We don't know how
26:59
Speaker 4: it's going to be paid for. I mean, the criticism
27:01
Speaker 4: from the Republican side that this is a very progressive,
27:05
Speaker 4: quite interventionist, activist president, potentially Kamala Harris, that's right, isn't it.
27:12
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I wouldn't. I wouldn't accept that criticism, right,
27:16
Speaker 3: you know, coming from the Republican side. And you look
27:18
Speaker 3: at the policy agenda that Donald Trump is put forward,
27:21
Speaker 3: and you know, you see him using the tools of
27:24
Speaker 3: government to benefit those at the top of the income distribution,
27:27
Speaker 3: to benefit the wealthy, him using the power of government
27:30
Speaker 3: to put in place policies that will raise costs for
27:34
Speaker 3: consumers all across the country. So it's it's in whose
27:38
Speaker 3: interest are you using these these tools in these levers?
27:42
Speaker 3: And you know what, I what I see the Vice
27:45
Speaker 3: President putting together an agenda to do in in a
27:48
Speaker 3: very robust way and consistent with the work that she's
27:50
Speaker 3: done over the past four years as Vice president, is
27:53
Speaker 3: to make sure that government is working to build the
27:56
Speaker 3: middle class, to make sure that prices are fair, to
27:59
Speaker 3: make sure that people had economic opportunities. So it's not
28:02
Speaker 3: a question of whether government is intervening, it's on whose
28:05
Speaker 3: behalf and in whose interest they're intervening.
28:09
Speaker 4: Finally, very briefly, you said it was your second convention
28:12
Speaker 4: apart from Kamala Harris's speech, which I guess everyone's supposed
28:15
Speaker 4: to say, is that highlight the end of the week.
28:17
Speaker 4: Who are you looking forward to seeing?
28:19
Speaker 3: I mean, I will say I worked on Hillary Clinton's
28:23
Speaker 3: transition team, and so I got to see her speak
28:26
Speaker 3: last night, and it was it was really beautiful and amazing,
28:31
Speaker 3: and to see how far we've come since she ran
28:35
Speaker 3: for office, and to see how excited everybody is about
28:40
Speaker 3: what's to come was just it was really moving to
28:43
Speaker 3: hear her speak.
28:44
Speaker 4: I'm excited economist, Heatasha. Thank you very much, Thank you
28:48
Speaker 4: thanks for listening to this week's special Voter Nomics from Chicago.
28:51
Speaker 4: This episode was hosted by me Stephanie Flanders, who was
28:55
Speaker 4: produced by Samosadi, with production support and sound designed by
28:58
Speaker 4: Moses and Brendan Francis Noonan is our executive producer and
29:03
Speaker 4: Sage Bowman is head of Popcarve and special thanks in
29:07
Speaker 4: this episode goes to Josh Wingrove, Heather Bouchet, Christi Cally,
29:11
Speaker 4: and all of Bloomberg's team here in Chicago. Please, if
29:15
Speaker 4: you like the show, go rate and review it.