Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Bitcoin is RIPPING while things get worse in the Middle East... | EP 1451

Transcript

Bitcoin is RIPPING while things get worse in the Middle East... | EP 1451 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:01
  War broke out in the Middle East and the markets are going crazy.
• 0:06
  Bitcoin kissed 70K today as the markets open and this is the
• 0:10
  first time bitcoins pumped on bad news in years.
• 0:15
  I think we're all just wondering what exactly is happening.
• 0:19
  Of course, if you're watching equities and silver had to sell
• 0:23
  off, equities have been going crazy this morning.
• 0:25
  There was a huge sell off as the markets open.
• 0:28
  Now they've rebounded. It's it's very interesting to
• 0:32
  see how the markets are digesting this information of a
• 0:35
  war in Iran right now. Obviously, guys, I'm sure
• 0:39
  everyone is aware of what happened over the weekend.
• 0:43
  On Friday, there was a joint operation between the US and
• 0:46
  Israel. They bombed Iran, apparently.
• 0:51
  You know, there was confusion around what happened to the
• 0:54
  Ayatollah, the supreme leader of Iran.
• 0:56
  Apparently he did get killed in the first way or first day of
• 1:01
  attacks rather, not the first wave per SE.
• 1:04
  And over the weekend, everyone, I think, was monitoring the
• 1:07
  situation. We were all on Twitter wondering
• 1:09
  exactly what's going on further, how the markets will interact
• 1:14
  with the news that we are having a war in the Middle East.
• 1:18
  And there is a lot of, you know, there's a lot of discussion on
• 1:21
  whether this is a good thing for the US, whether this is a good
• 1:24
  thing for the world. What exactly is going on?
• 1:27
  I will start with, you know, just the most recent headline
• 1:30
  that I saw on corporate press here, this is CNBC and it goes
• 1:36
  Iran live updates, Trump outlines war objectives, says US
• 1:39
  will easily prevail. Now, the official kind of
• 1:43
  narrative around this was, hey, the Venezuela operation was the
• 1:49
  blueprint for what's going on in Iran.
• 1:52
  Now there has been this kind of trend.
• 1:55
  Maybe it's, it's a little bit of a troll essentially saying, hey,
• 1:58
  Trump does these projects, these operations, he bombs a country
• 2:02
  and then he wants it all wrapped up before the markets open on
• 2:05
  Monday. And This is why there's a lot of
• 2:07
  confusion going on in the markets right now because it it
• 2:10
  hasn't wrapped up and we're getting a lot of misleading
• 2:14
  information right now. We're hearing, hey, this could
• 2:17
  only be a couple of days. And then they're saying,
• 2:19
  actually, this could last a couple of weeks.
• 2:21
  There's been some talk, hey, this might be, you know, a
• 2:24
  couple of months. This could be like a lot of bit
• 2:27
  corners have been saying, and I don't know if this is the case,
• 2:31
  but of course, everyone goes to the extreme.
• 2:33
  Hey, this could be the new forever war in the Middle East
• 2:35
  that people are making a lot of connections with what's
• 2:39
  happening in Iran, with what happened in Iraq.
• 2:42
  And you know, well, us, we are Bitcoiners, we, we always say
• 2:46
  the same thing. You know, Fiat is the party of
• 2:50
  endless wars. Fiat is the party of wars.
• 2:54
  Bitcoin stops wars. If you don't have money, if you
• 2:56
  can't print money out of thin air, then eventually you find
• 3:00
  out who actually has the money to pay for this stuff.
• 3:03
  Now, the interesting part from my perspective as a bitcoiner
• 3:06
  here is obviously how Bitcoin reacted to this news.
• 3:11
  Most of the pundits have been saying, oh, look, this is going
• 3:13
  to be the bloodiest day in the stock market because of the
• 3:16
  uncertainty in the Middle East right now.
• 3:19
  And Bitcoin, like I said at the beginning of the show, it got up
• 3:23
  to 70 K. It's around 68 K right now.
• 3:26
  I think the last number I looked at was basically Bitcoin bounced
• 3:29
  up around 6% this morning. I think it's a little bit of a
• 3:32
  retrace. I haven't fully, you know, chart
• 3:34
  boyed it this morning, but we're all monitoring the situation.
• 3:38
  We're all wondering what's going on.
• 3:39
  It did look like it was going to be a bloody market, a bloody day
• 3:42
  for equities out there. S&P 500 tank, NASDAQ tank.
• 3:46
  This morning, Dow Jones was down.
• 3:49
  Now it seemed to have responded very strong on the back end.
• 3:53
  So at first, earlier in the morning, I was like, wow, did
• 3:56
  Bitcoin finally decouple? Are we finally seeing a
• 3:59
  decoupling event happening right now where equities are down,
• 4:03
  silver's down and Bitcoin respond very favorably?
• 4:07
  Turns out couple hours later, the stock market is pumping now.
• 4:10
  And I wouldn't say necessarily pumping, but it's not as weak as
• 4:13
  it looked this morning. And again, the reason we're
• 4:16
  talking about this from a Bitcoin perspective is the fact
• 4:19
  that Bitcoin for the first time in years, I think since 2023,
• 4:24
  has responded favorably in the face of really bad news, in the
• 4:28
  face of uncertainty, in the face of negative news headlines.
• 4:32
  Bitcoin is positive right now and again, the big question is
• 4:38
  I've been saying it for the last couple of weeks.
• 4:40
  It's like was the 60 K the Bitcoin bottom?
• 4:43
  Obviously we still we still won't know until we are able to
• 4:46
  look back in hindsight. But the joke going around right
• 4:50
  now is like everyone was expecting Bitcoin to dump right
• 4:53
  now, but it dumped last week on no news and here we are.
• 4:57
  Bitcoin is actually having a breakout right now, which is
• 5:00
  very interesting timing. I think the fact that Bitcoin is
• 5:03
  going up right now is super interesting considering all the
• 5:06
  news going on in the world, geopolitics, macro, lot more
• 5:10
  uncertainty and Bitcoin is acting very strong right now
• 5:15
  because Bitcoin has been looked at or rather been treated as a
• 5:19
  risk on asset that this I, I don't want to call it a full
• 5:23
  decoupling yet because this morning, like I said, it did
• 5:26
  look like a decoupling. But now it's just like, OK, hey,
• 5:29
  maybe the markets have already priced in the war in Iran.
• 5:33
  Maybe, you know, 60K was the Bitcoin bottom.
• 5:37
  Maybe all of the uncertainty in the world right now in
• 5:40
  geopolitics and macro is treating Bitcoin like the
• 5:44
  neutral scarce money that we believe it is that we know it to
• 5:48
  be. And in the face of all of this,
• 5:50
  again, the majority of people that are investing in Bitcoin
• 5:53
  currently, they view Bitcoin as a risk on asset.
• 5:57
  Therefore, when there when there's uncertainty in the
• 5:59
  world, when there's geopolitics skirmishes, when they're the
• 6:02
  macro landscape doesn't look that good.
• 6:05
  Usually Bitcoin has a very strong sell off.
• 6:07
  This is why this moment is so interesting because look, I
• 6:11
  don't necessarily know if we are on the verge of World War three.
• 6:16
  There's a lot of debate whether this is going to be the start of
• 6:19
  a World War Three scenario or is is this a political theater?
• 6:24
  I know the Tom Luongos and the Simon Dixons are saying, hey,
• 6:28
  all of this has been, you know, theater.
• 6:31
  This is all been rehearsed. They've already did
• 6:32
  negotiations. This is just to kind of have,
• 6:37
  you know, a, a theatrics out there so that we can get what we
• 6:41
  want after this, which depending on what side of the aisle you
• 6:45
  are, is essentially creating US becoming much more of a regional
• 6:50
  power. And I think this is where Simon
• 6:51
  Dixon and Tom Luongo do separate themselves.
• 6:55
  Simon Dixon is saying, hey, what we're seeing if you follow the
• 6:58
  money, this has all been negotiated.
• 7:00
  We're seeing the US be turned into a regional power and
• 7:04
  essentially losing their world superpower status.
• 7:07
  Currently, Tom Luongo is on the other side essentially saying,
• 7:11
  hey, this is actually going to make the USA lot stronger.
• 7:15
  There has been a lot of talk about the control of the British
• 7:18
  Empire in Iran using Iran. And therefore this attack is one
• 7:24
  of those moments that is separating the US from the
• 7:27
  British Empire from the Tom Luongo perspective, which would
• 7:30
  say that this is actually increasing EU s s power,
• 7:34
  increasing America first in that Tom Luongo perspective of the US
• 7:39
  administration away from the Davos globalist crowd.
• 7:42
  Or so the other side is it could be a little more hypo, you know,
• 7:48
  it could be a little more of engagement bait.
• 7:51
  It could be this perspective that, oh, look, now we we're
• 7:56
  going into World War three. That's kind of the, I think the,
• 8:00
  the hyperbolic view of what is happening right now.
• 8:03
  Obviously, only time will tell if this does become a global
• 8:08
  affair here. But the, the, the point remains
• 8:13
  the same. Things have changed after this
• 8:17
  weekend, after these attacks on Iran or this Operation Epic Fury
• 8:23
  in Iran. Things are changing.
• 8:26
  This is a huge moment in the world history, in macro, in
• 8:31
  geopolitics. It's going to be very
• 8:33
  interesting to follow along for the next few weeks.
• 8:36
  If we stay there for a long time and we have a prolonged war, I
• 8:40
  don't know. We saw this morning Arthur Hayes
• 8:42
  basically say, hey, this is gonna be the money printer.
• 8:45
  Hold that thought, 'cause I'm gonna get to that.
• 8:47
  Let's go. I'm gonna get to that during the
• 8:48
  numbers. But yeah, I mean, look, this is
• 8:54
  a kind of like a pivotal moment in American history.
• 9:00
  Trump specifically ran on a non war.
• 9:06
  No new. No new wars, no new.
• 9:08
  War campaign, right? It was part of the reason that,
• 9:13
  you know, so much of us were motivated to vote for him.
• 9:18
  And this kind of basically this 180 of the United States now
• 9:26
  entering into war with a major regional power.
• 9:30
  This is a country that has 100 million people.
• 9:33
  It's significantly bigger than Iraq.
• 9:36
  And you know, here we are two years into his second term and
• 9:42
  now we're entering into a major war where American service
• 9:46
  members have already been affected by it.
• 9:50
  Like this is this is crazy. And then that gets you to think
• 9:55
  and start asking like very hard questions.
• 9:58
  Because I think you guys all remember like the beginning of
• 10:01
  Trump's, of the beginning of Trump's term when Elon got in
• 10:05
  there and he signed all these executive orders and all this
• 10:09
  fanfare. And we were very excited about,
• 10:12
  you know, the Bitcoin bill, like Clarity Acts still hasn't been
• 10:16
  signed. It still hasn't passed the
• 10:17
  Senate. My assessment of the situation
• 10:21
  is quite simple. I think that elections, they
• 10:27
  function as a pressure release valve.
• 10:30
  They, they, they function as a mechanism to essentially get the
• 10:37
  plebs, get the citizens the United States to, to have to
• 10:42
  believe they have a, they have control over the destiny of the
• 10:48
  future of the country. And I think what happened over
• 10:52
  the weekend was literally the biggest evidence that you can
• 11:00
  run into that indicates that no, the American people have
• 11:04
  absolutely no say over what the federal government is doing.
• 11:13
  Trump had a mandate when he got voted in, and that mandate was
• 11:16
  simple. No new wars, America first.
• 11:22
  That was what we were sold on when we elected Trump and he's
• 11:28
  done a lot of good at the same time, like ending Operation
• 11:32
  Choke .2 point O was amazing. The executive orders, even
• 11:38
  though they're just executive orders for Bitcoin have amazing.
• 11:41
  If the clarity act gets passed, that would be great.
• 11:45
  So it's it's not all negative. Freeing Ross Ulbricht, that was
• 11:48
  fantastic. That was great.
• 11:50
  So it's not all negative, but simultaneously, you got to ask
• 11:54
  yourself, this is not popular. This is not something that we
• 11:59
  wanted. This is not going to help him in
• 12:01
  the midterms. The Repubs are going to now, I
• 12:04
  can tell you like as a matter of fact, they're going to get
• 12:07
  absolutely smoked. Like the Republicans will lose
• 12:11
  the House. So any type of opportunity, any
• 12:14
  type of window that they had to pass pro Bitcoin legislation,
• 12:19
  the time is the time is clicking the the clock is clicking.
• 12:23
  We're running out of time. We're running out of time for
• 12:27
  that stuff to get passed. And again, like this is, this is
• 12:32
  what we want. Like this is, this is exactly
• 12:36
  what we voted against. We wanted a a third party
• 12:41
  candidate. We wanted a candidate that
• 12:45
  wasn't going to represent the establishment, wasn't going to
• 12:48
  continue this trend of forever wars.
• 12:50
  Listen, guys, this is just a matter of fact.
• 12:54
  Every president since the end of World War 2 hasn't has involved
• 13:00
  the United States in one conflict or the other.
• 13:05
  Every single one. Trump specifically ran.
• 13:09
  This is what got him elected. He, I remember on the first
• 13:12
  debate stage when he was debating Jeb Bush, George W
• 13:17
  Bush's brother, he called them out on the lunacy of the Iraq
• 13:21
  war. On this specific election just
• 13:24
  now, he ran on if Kamala gets elected, they're going to start
• 13:29
  World War Three. That was his platform.
• 13:34
  That's why people went out, showed up and voted and he
• 13:39
  essentially broke that promise completely.
• 13:44
  Like and OK, they can say, Oh no, boots on the ground.
• 13:49
  And this isn't actually a regime change war.
• 13:52
  Like they literally took out the entire leadership of the
• 13:57
  country. They're creating a power vacuum.
• 14:01
  They're telling us stuff like, you know, oh, it's only going to
• 14:05
  take 4 weeks. Like ladies and gentlemen, we've
• 14:09
  heard this before. This is Iraq 2 point O, but with
• 14:14
  a much bigger country. The fact is, we don't know how
• 14:19
  this is going to end. We have no effing I, we have no
• 14:24
  effing idea. But the last time the United
• 14:28
  States went to war in Iraq, that created a power vacuum which led
• 14:35
  to ISIS. The last time the United States
• 14:39
  pulled out of Afghanistan, that created a power vacuum.
• 14:45
  And essentially, you know who runs Afghanistan today?
• 14:48
  The Taliban with US equipment. They're driving around the
• 14:51
  Humvees, your tax dollars with like, you know, with excitement.
• 14:56
  So like, imagine if all of that money, trillions of dollars,
• 15:02
  imagine if all the trillions of dollars that were spent funding
• 15:07
  these conflicts, just a crazy idea, were used instead on the
• 15:15
  American people. We always talk about how rent is
• 15:19
  is too expensive, how Healthcare is too expensive.
• 15:22
  They've spent trillions of dollars funding a war machine,
• 15:30
  full stop. And I said this over the weekend
• 15:33
  and the tweet blew up. Fiat incentivizes this.
• 15:39
  It incentivizes this type of behavior from politicians
• 15:42
  because they enrich themselves through this whole process.
• 15:46
  Like if you see some of the stocks that went up this
• 15:48
  morning, it was all the defense companies.
• 15:51
  I was watching CNBC in the morning and they had the ex CEO
• 15:56
  of of Goldman Sachs and they were just talking about this
• 16:00
  like it it like. And I, and I also tweeted this
• 16:02
  and I said, if you consume legacy media versus new media,
• 16:07
  you live in an entirely different reality.
• 16:10
  They were talking about it like it was just a matter of fact.
• 16:13
  Oh, we're just, you're just, it's just another, you know,
• 16:16
  it's operation Epic fury. It's just another thing we're
• 16:20
  doing. Like, and, and at the same time
• 16:23
  that you had the CEO of Goldman Sachs next to him, you had a
• 16:27
  Chiron of four defense companies and how their stocks are
• 16:33
  performing based on the news. So it doesn't matter who gets
• 16:42
  elected into office. I am convinced at this point,
• 16:45
  without a shadow of a doubt that the United States will continue
• 16:50
  to go to war. The only way to end this for
• 16:54
  good is the separation of money and state.
• 16:58
  And that political movement hasn't really started, hasn't
• 17:03
  really picked up steam. But I bet you as time
• 17:08
  progresses, specifically in the youth, more and more people are
• 17:12
  going to start asking questions. And remember the most powerful
• 17:20
  youth political organizer who unfortunately is not with us
• 17:26
  anymore, Charlie Kirk, which I think would have been a future
• 17:33
  U.S. President.
• 17:37
  He started asking questions. He started asking very difficult
• 17:40
  questions towards the very end, questioning this very system.
• 17:50
  And this is where we are. I, I don't think we live in a,
• 17:57
  you know, in a government that is by the people, for the
• 18:00
  people. I don't think that is feasible
• 18:05
  as long as the Federal Reserve exists.
• 18:09
  I, I just don't think it's possible.
• 18:13
  And, you know, at this point, you got to ask yourself, like,
• 18:26
  if elections don't really change the way that Washington works
• 18:32
  and functions, it just acts like a pressure release valve, you
• 18:37
  know, and the pendulum swings left and the pendulum swings
• 18:40
  right. And then, you know, the people
• 18:42
  on the right say whatever they have to say to get in power, and
• 18:44
  then they lose power and the people and left to say whatever.
• 18:47
  And it just keeps going back and forth and the, the core policy,
• 18:52
  which is let's focus on the United States and that doesn't
• 18:59
  change. Then elections really don't
• 19:02
  matter. They do matter to some extent.
• 19:06
  I think you can kind of change the, the things on the, on the
• 19:09
  peripherals, but the core doesn't really change.
• 19:13
  DC doesn't really change and it's an architectural problem.
• 19:20
  I think as long as a country has the ability to print its own
• 19:23
  money, they don't really have to listen to their citizens.
• 19:27
  Like it's as simple as that. So let's see how this ends up.
• 19:32
  Let's see how this turns out. But historically speaking, maybe
• 19:37
  he can pull magic. Maybe, maybe he can pull it off
• 19:41
  like what he did with Venezuela. Maduro was, was, was great, but
• 19:47
  it wasn't a full scale, you know, a, a, a full scale
• 19:52
  military operation to change the leadership of.
• 19:58
  I mean, technically it was, but they left the rest of the
• 20:01
  leadership in charge. And it's basically like, look,
• 20:03
  like if you don't do what we want, you know, this is going to
• 20:06
  happen again. This is inherently different.
• 20:09
  They literally took out the entire leadership.
• 20:11
  And then you see Trump go out on his speech and, like, tell the
• 20:16
  world. The the people of Iran, I I need
• 20:19
  you guys to rise up. You have the full support of the
• 20:22
  United States behind you. It's like, yeah, but like, they
• 20:26
  don't have guns. They don't have organization.
• 20:30
  The security apparatus in in Iran isn't going to change just
• 20:35
  because you drop a few bombs. Like, who do you think is going
• 20:38
  to fill that power vacuum in? We, we, we've seen this story
• 20:42
  play out time and time and time and time again.
• 20:46
  So when we say stuff like buy Bitcoin and wars, it's not a
• 20:51
  hyperbolic statement. If you are using the US dollar
• 20:56
  and you're part of the US dollar system, you are, you are
• 21:00
  indirectly paying for this stuff.
• 21:03
  You are indirectly paying for this type of behavior from your
• 21:07
  government. And 99% of people, if I were to
• 21:11
  ask them, hey, like what do you care about?
• 21:16
  I bet you they would say stuff like my Healthcare is too
• 21:21
  expensive, rent is too expensive, etcetera, etcetera,
• 21:27
  etcetera. That is what 99% of the
• 21:30
  population would argue. That's what they would say.
• 21:34
  And you know what makes things more expensive?
• 21:37
  Printing money. And you know why they print
• 21:40
  money to pay for this shit. That's why they print money.
• 21:45
  And we couldn't even get the most populist president of our
• 21:52
  lifetime who specifically ran on a no war platform to keep that
• 21:59
  promise. So I'm at a point where I'm
• 22:05
  saying like, look, they either must have something on him.
• 22:11
  They must be threatening him or he isn't actually the one
• 22:15
  running the country, or he just flat out lied.
• 22:20
  It could be either of those things, I don't know.
• 22:23
  But this is what Bitcoin is about.
• 22:29
  This is This is why this movement was born, is to opt out
• 22:35
  of this madness, right? Because I don't think it's going
• 22:38
  to end anytime soon. I I just have no hope for a
• 22:44
  political solution at this point.
• 22:49
  I think people are just too distracted with, you know,
• 22:52
  Netflix and chill and you know, what is it the sports ball?
• 22:59
  Brighton Circuses. That I, I just think, I, I just
• 23:02
  don't think that they have a kind of motivation to even
• 23:05
  inherently question the system. And then not only that, it's,
• 23:09
  it's the information itself. Like I was watching legacy media
• 23:14
  last night and they're just, it's like, it reminds me of like
• 23:20
  the Iraq war reporting. It was crazy.
• 23:23
  They were just talking about this.
• 23:24
  Like it like it was just, Oh yeah, you know, Operation Epic,
• 23:29
  Fury, you know, and then they would play the same like B roll
• 23:34
  that the Pentagon gave them of like, you know, cruise missiles
• 23:37
  getting launched from, you know, U.S.
• 23:41
  Navy destroyers like over and over and over again.
• 23:44
  And then like, you know, the aircraft carriers where the
• 23:46
  planes take off. Like, like, what is this like
• 23:50
  2003? It's like, it's like we're going
• 23:54
  back in time or something. And then like the populist
• 23:58
  movement that Trump created when he initially ran for office in
• 24:02
  2016, like that's dead, it's gone, it's over.
• 24:09
  This is a betrayal. That's what it is.
• 24:14
  It's not all that bad. We got some good things.
• 24:17
  We made movement. Most importantly, I think we
• 24:22
  exposed something that we all knew was true but didn't know
• 24:27
  for certain. And I think now we know for a
• 24:31
  fact that there's not even like a like a doubt anymore in my
• 24:36
  mind that hey, no matter who you vote for, this is what they're
• 24:42
  going to do. That is crazy.
• 24:48
  You don't change that system from within that system.
• 24:53
  You change that system by opting out of that system and living in
• 24:58
  an alternative system. And that alternative system is
• 25:03
  Bitcoin. That alternative system is
• 25:07
  freedom tech like Noster, like HEAT, peer-to-peer
• 25:10
  communications that will give individuals back sovereignty and
• 25:19
  then it will allow them to take control over their lives.
• 25:23
  But this racket, because that's what it really is of red versus
• 25:31
  blue, right versus left, GOP versus Democrat, Like, dude,
• 25:39
  like it's not real, just not real.
• 25:44
  Like you, you're going to have slightly different flavors and,
• 25:48
  and, and, and different policies for sure, 100%.
• 25:54
  But the forever wars, I, I don't think you can vote yourself out
• 25:59
  of that. And you're paying for it.
• 26:03
  You're paying for it with inflation and with your taxes.
• 26:09
  Do you agree with it? Do you like paying for it?
• 26:13
  Because you are paying for it. So the United States was
• 26:19
  originally founded on no taxation without representation.
• 26:26
  Not only do we live in a world where it's no taxation without
• 26:30
  representation, it's no taxation without representation to fund a
• 26:34
  war that you don't want to be a part of.
• 26:40
  Like, were we, were we being attacked?
• 26:43
  Like, did something happen? No.
• 26:51
  And not only that, you lied, which is the crazy part.
• 26:56
  It was a lie. It was a lie.
• 27:00
  So that's where my, that's where my head's at Opti with all this.
• 27:05
  Well, the, the, I'm, I'm glad we're, we're, we're, we're
• 27:09
  starting to get on the same boat.
• 27:10
  The, the chat is applauding Nico a little bittersweet.
• 27:15
  You know, Nico had a lot of hope for it.
• 27:16
  I've been very cynical about it from the from the jump, but
• 27:20
  with, without going all the way back into what Nico's saying, I,
• 27:22
  I do kind of want to pivot this a little bit back into Bitcoin
• 27:26
  right now because the big question was, and Tommy said it
• 27:29
  and and this is what we're all kind of wondering like how did
• 27:33
  Bitcoin go up with war breaking out?
• 27:35
  That's the big question right now.
• 27:37
  And I did ask in the chat for you guys to vote.
• 27:40
  Do you think this is a Bitcoin breakout or is this a suckers
• 27:43
  rally? And 59, 9% of you guys right now
• 27:46
  are saying suckers rally right now, which is very interesting
• 27:50
  to to see. You know, if you look at if you
• 27:53
  look at the price action right now, it does feel like it's
• 27:56
  breaking out. Obviously we need a little more
• 27:59
  confirmation on the price, but that is the big question right
• 28:02
  now. The one that Tommy asks is like,
• 28:03
  how is Bitcoin pumping right now in the face of war?
• 28:09
  As the as the kind of conversation and the jokes were
• 28:11
  going on Twitter. It's like like Bitcoin crashed
• 28:14
  on no news last week. So it can't really go that much
• 28:17
  lower. And all of us Bitcoin is like,
• 28:19
  well, you know, it really could go a lot lower.
• 28:21
  I honestly, I was kind of expecting the Bitcoin price to
• 28:25
  to crash a lot harder on this, you know, war in the Middle East
• 28:29
  breaking out. I was really expecting it to
• 28:32
  crash really hard this morning and the fact that we got a very
• 28:36
  strong. I don't know.
• 28:37
  I don't want to call it a breakout yet, but it does look
• 28:39
  like a breakout. I saw some you know, some chart
• 28:41
  boys on Twitter saying it looks like a breakout.
• 28:43
  You know they were doing their descending wedges and all that
• 28:47
  TA stuff. It is looking like it might be a
• 28:50
  breakout though. I I I'm of two minds.
• 28:52
  It does feel like a suckers rally right now because, and I
• 28:57
  think the, you know, the, the, the thinking for most of us is
• 29:01
  like it should be crashing right now.
• 29:03
  Like in the face of everything we're seeing, Bitcoin should be
• 29:06
  crashing right now. But maybe maybe, you know, like
• 29:10
  what we've been saying, or rather what I've been saying,
• 29:12
  maybe the 60K was the bottom and we're seeing a lot of buying
• 29:15
  right now and it's holding up very strong in the face of all
• 29:18
  the uncertainty in the Middle East.
• 29:20
  Maybe the war was already priced in Bitcoin.
• 29:22
  Maybe that was the 60K crash. Maybe it was the pricing in of
• 29:25
  what is potentially coming down the pipeline.
• 29:27
  So really, we're all just looking at Bitcoin right now.
• 29:31
  We only know in a couple of weeks or you know, looking back
• 29:33
  a couple of days of wow, OK, you know, Bitcoin actually did break
• 29:37
  out. OK, this wasn't a suckers rally
• 29:40
  because from all of just kind of first principles view of this,
• 29:44
  just from like a basic heuristic view, I think everyone thought
• 29:48
  it was going to crash really hard this morning when the
• 29:50
  markets opened up And further to add another little wrinkle to
• 29:53
  this, we didn't get the 10 AM slam this morning either.
• 29:56
  So we didn't see the you know, quote UN quote Jane St. crash
• 30:01
  that everyone has been speculating is happening.
• 30:04
  People are saying that maybe they have pivoted into silver
• 30:07
  and that's why we saw silver crash.
• 30:09
  But in the face of all the things that we're seeing in the
• 30:12
  news right now, Bitcoin is acting and holding up very
• 30:15
  strong right now, which is I, I would say a pleasant surprise
• 30:18
  here. Hey, there is potentially, you
• 30:22
  know, we, we're potentially seeing a World War three
• 30:24
  scenario right now. We're seeing a, a new war in the
• 30:27
  Middle East, at least the very first innings of this.
• 30:30
  We'll see this probably ramp up. We'll probably see the markets
• 30:33
  react in whatever way. Again, if you looked at equities
• 30:36
  this morning, it was like whipsawing.
• 30:39
  It dumped, it opened way lower than last week, It dumped and
• 30:43
  then it whipsawed back up. The the markets I think are
• 30:46
  trying to digest what is actually happening right now.
• 30:48
  100% and now, well, let's, let's let's pivot the conversation
• 30:52
  away from politics back to Bitcoin.
• 30:55
  And then Arthur Hayes actually has a bullish take, which I want
• 30:58
  to get to Opti. Let's just get to it right now.
• 31:00
  Let's just fit it all in. It seems like the audience is
• 31:03
  liking what we're talking about. Let's just fit it all in.
• 31:06
  So Arthur Hayes actually has, he wrote an amazing article on
• 31:11
  Substack and he's essentially making the case that the longer
• 31:16
  the United States, this sounds so bad to say stuff like this,
• 31:20
  but the longer the United States is involved in Iran, the more
• 31:26
  likely the Fed is likely to print money.
• 31:30
  So let's check out the clip and we'll talk about it.
• 31:35
  I'm sticking with it. I think I said $250,000 Bitcoin
• 31:38
  and I am going to stick with that until December 31st. 11:59
• 31:45
  Pardon me, I tried to make it a little better for you there,
• 31:48
  Arthur. I tried to say it was 200,000
• 31:50
  knocked 50 grand off, but you're sticking with the 250 by by the
• 31:55
  end of 2026. What do you think?
• 31:59
  I think we're be, you know, 500 to 750,000 Bitcoin.
• 32:03
  I think 2026 and 2027. This is the meat of the money
• 32:07
  printing the the Trump administration is going to do
• 32:10
  what they know how to do best, whatever government knows how to
• 32:12
  do best. When in doubt, print the money.
• 32:14
  If the people are unhappy, print the money and hand them a goodie
• 32:16
  and they're gonna show up at the polls and hopefully vote for
• 32:19
  you. All right, everybody.
• 32:21
  So let's get into the the meat of it.
• 32:24
  So this is from Arthur Hayes Substack.
• 32:27
  He he posted this on let me get the actual date, March 1st.
• 32:30
  So yesterday, on Sunday and excellent article.
• 32:34
  Really recommend it. So this is at the behest of the
• 32:37
  most powerful president in U.S. history, Donald J Trump, the US
• 32:40
  Department of War and Open AI launched their offensive agenic
• 32:44
  AI weapon, a deadly new Apple iOS.
• 32:47
  The operating system, once uploaded into a nation's cyber
• 32:50
  infrastructure, attempts regime change.
• 32:53
  Regime change most often comes complete with indiscriminate
• 32:58
  bombing of military and civilian infrastructure causing
• 33:01
  widespread casualties at the minimum cost of hundreds of
• 33:04
  billions if not trillions of dollars.
• 33:05
  The destruction of the partisan resistance allows the new US
• 33:09
  controlled political elite to siphon money from American
• 33:12
  taxpayers and their what does that say opti ingenuous
• 33:20
  indigenous indigenous population and deposit said funds into
• 33:24
  their JP Morgan private wealth accounts.
• 33:27
  Popular discontent builds against the American Middle East
• 33:30
  Vichy S regime, culminating in the violent installation of a a
• 33:35
  reactionary, usually repressive and bloodthirsty homegrown
• 33:40
  political structure. The sales cycles complete and
• 33:43
  open AI could flog aloft flog off the next version.
• 33:47
  Aren't you pumped for the open AIIPO price at a Ford PE of
• 33:51
  Infinity? Pax Americana's righteous
• 33:54
  crusade against Middle Eastern oil producers and or weigh
• 33:58
  stations for geostrategic gas and oil pipelines has been going
• 34:02
  strong since my consciousness awoke and began imprinting
• 34:06
  experiences into the quantum continuum in the human year of
• 34:10
  1985. Feast your eyes on this beauty
• 34:12
  of a chart prepared using Perplexity's new computer model.
• 34:17
  So it breaks it down major war campaign, targeted strike,
• 34:20
  Republican President, Democratic president and overlaid is the
• 34:24
  Fed funds rate, total fed, federal budget, etcetera,
• 34:28
  etcetera. And you can just kind of break
• 34:31
  it down and you can see some some similarities.
• 34:36
  You could you could start connecting some dots.
• 34:39
  Anyways, my lottery ticket consigned me to emerge in this
• 34:42
  fictitious squirrely line defined landmass we call we
• 34:46
  humans call America. And over my 40 years of
• 34:48
  existence, every single Team Red Republican and Team Blue
• 34:52
  Democrat president launched a missile strike or full-fledged
• 34:56
  war against some deserving country in the Middle East.
• 35:00
  It's as if once you become president, high-ranking
• 35:03
  bureaucrats lead you into a super, super duper room, you're
• 35:09
  gonna put your balls in a vice and make you swear that at least
• 35:12
  one Middle Eastern country will feel the searing heat of
• 35:16
  democracy during your reign. Whether you believe the
• 35:19
  conspiracy theory, the juror explaining why America is
• 35:22
  bombing such and such country, in my lifetime at least, the
• 35:26
  graphic shows that every U.S. President since 1985 has engaged
• 35:30
  militarily with one or more Middle Eastern countries.
• 35:34
  Therefore, as President Trump Coos about the apparent
• 35:37
  assassination of the Iranian Supreme leader and endorsement
• 35:41
  of a popular revolution against the theocratic state, we
• 35:44
  investors must ponder what happens to our portfolios as
• 35:48
  Trump embarks on the rite of passage for every U.S.
• 35:51
  President before him. Given I'm just a simple minded
• 35:54
  crypto bro, Just all of us except for Bitcoin Bros with
• 35:58
  toxic masculinity, I adopt A very simple heuristic to
• 36:01
  determine whether Bitcoin number go up or down.
• 36:04
  The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of
• 36:08
  Iranian nation building, the higher the likelihood the Fed
• 36:12
  lowers the price and increase increases the quantity of money
• 36:16
  to support Pax Americana's latest bout of Miss Middle
• 36:20
  Eastern Middle Eastern adventurism.
• 36:22
  To validate my hypothesis, let's examine the history of the Feds
• 36:26
  actions post major Middle Eastern war from 1985 to the
• 36:31
  present. In 1990, President George HW
• 36:36
  Bush, the Fed held interest rates steady in the first
• 36:40
  meeting after the onset of the war, but intimidated that if the
• 36:44
  war dragged on, monetary easing would likely be necessary. 2001
• 36:50
  The GWOT began directly after the World Trade Center towers in
• 36:54
  New York fell almost immediately.
• 36:56
  Iraq and Afghanistan were put to the question by the cruise
• 37:00
  missile inquisition. He's a great writer.
• 37:02
  The Fed wasted no time in accelerating rate cuts to help
• 37:06
  confidence in the economy recover 2009 the surge.
• 37:11
  The unfortunate plebs in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan might have
• 37:15
  assumed a Nobel Peace Prize winning president would not rain
• 37:19
  Hellfire down upon their countries, but they would sorely
• 37:23
  be mistaken. False hope is indeed a killer.
• 37:25
  While Obama didn't start any major Middle Eastern wars, he
• 37:29
  did upsize troop deployment in the Afghanistan war.
• 37:33
  Given that the Fed reduced interest rates to 0 and began
• 37:36
  money printing via QE in late 2008, there wasn't anything for
• 37:40
  them to do in response to Obama's surge of troop
• 37:43
  deployments in the Middle East theater money was free and
• 37:46
  supplied in infinite quantities. The US war machine and its
• 37:49
  contractor contractors feasted Iran 2006 and a perceived twist
• 37:55
  of fate, Trump practically rose from the dead after an
• 37:58
  assassination attempt during the 2024 presidential campaign.
• 38:03
  As Kanye says, Jesus walks. I can talk about Kanye now
• 38:07
  because he bent. Anyways, Trump's presidency and
• 38:14
  the number the November re election odds of his team red
• 38:17
  Republican legislators will depend on the success or failure
• 38:20
  defined by rising or failing financial asset markets or
• 38:24
  failing or or falling or rising oil prices.
• 38:27
  Retrospectively, given that sense, the Shah fell in 1979.
• 38:31
  Iranian regime change has been the wet dream of elite Pax
• 38:35
  Americana politicians from both Team Red and Team Blue. the Fed
• 38:40
  poses political cover to ease monetary policy significantly.
• 38:44
  To shrink their duty as the enabler of cheaper and more
• 38:47
  plentiful money to finance the reconstruction of Iran into an
• 38:51
  American vessel state is unpatriotic trading tactics.
• 38:56
  Sitting here today, we do not know how long Trump will remain
• 38:59
  interested in spending billions if not trillions of dollars
• 39:02
  reshaping Iran's politics to his liking, nor how much
• 39:06
  geopolitical and financial markets pain he can politically
• 39:09
  tolerate before he cuts and runs.
• 39:11
  The prudent action is to wait and see the time to back up the
• 39:15
  truck and buy Bitcoin and high quality shit coins.
• 39:18
  Don't agree with that part is immediately after the Fed cuts
• 39:22
  rates or print money to support the government's goal in Iran.
• 39:27
  I mean, this is what I was talking about tying this back
• 39:31
  into what I was saying in the beginning of the show.
• 39:33
  Like ultimately, ladies and gentlemen, doesn't matter if
• 39:37
  it's team blue doesn't matter if it's team red.
• 39:40
  Makes me question if elections even mean anything.
• 39:43
  Makes me question who's actually really in charge of the country.
• 39:47
  Doesn't matter if you elect the most popular, you know, populist
• 39:51
  president, you know, in record in, in my lifetime at least.
• 39:56
  Doesn't matter regardless, whoever the president is,
• 40:01
  they're going to bomb a country in the Middle East.
• 40:03
  That's Arthur Hayes's case Now from a Bitcoiners perspective,
• 40:07
  which is I'm assuming why your guys are tuned into the show in
• 40:10
  the 1st place, Arthur makes a very solid case.
• 40:13
  Historically speaking, in order to continue funding these
• 40:17
  forever wars, eventually the Fed is forced into a position where
• 40:22
  they have to turn on the. Money printers, right, Which
• 40:26
  again kind of connecting it, what I was saying in the
• 40:28
  beginning, it all, it all surrounds the money printing.
• 40:32
  Ladies and gentlemen, United States established the Federal
• 40:35
  Reserve in 1913. They established the federal
• 40:38
  income tax the same year. Within a couple years, the
• 40:41
  United States enters World War 2 the same century. the United
• 40:44
  States enters World War 2 the same.
• 40:46
  I mean, this century has had the most since the establishment of
• 40:51
  the Federal Reserve. We've had the most wars in this
• 40:54
  this country's history and some of the worst wars in this
• 40:57
  country's history. If we want to end the forever
• 41:00
  wars, we have to end the Fed. I don't think we can do that,
• 41:03
  politically speaking. I think the only way to do that,
• 41:07
  at least on an individual basis, is to opt out of the system
• 41:11
  entirely. And if things really get bad,
• 41:14
  vote with your feet. I think that's what it what what
• 41:17
  it's come down to. It's come down to you taking
• 41:20
  care of your family as an individual and you doing what's
• 41:23
  best for you, but thinking that you're going to be able to
• 41:26
  change this system. I mean, they've been pulling
• 41:29
  this bait and switch for the last 40 years.
• 41:33
  And as Arthur Hayes is saying, I don't know what they're doing.
• 41:37
  I don't know if they're they pulled Obama into a backroom or
• 41:40
  Trump into a backroom. And then they basically sent
• 41:43
  them down and they're like, listen, bro, like this is how
• 41:45
  things actually work over here. You know, I have no idea what is
• 41:50
  going on. But one thing's for certain.
• 41:54
  We're not going to vote ourselves out of these forever
• 41:56
  wars. That's my take.
• 41:58
  But, you know, silver lining was kind of fucked up.
• 42:02
  Silver Lining is a not Opti is the silver lining's kind of
• 42:05
  fucked up. It's it's super fucked up.
• 42:08
  The money printer is turning on it.
• 42:09
  That's the only way. That's the only way.
• 42:11
  Silver lining is kind of fucked up.
• 42:12
  The silver lining from a portfolio.
• 42:14
  I can't, I can't even believe I'm saying this, but like from a
• 42:17
  portfolio perspective, they might have to start printing
• 42:20
  money, which is why Bitcoin might have pumped in order to
• 42:25
  continue funding this campaign, this military campaign with
• 42:31
  Iran, right? And if they do that, if the
• 42:34
  money printer starts going Burr, guess what happens to Bitcoin?
• 42:38
  It goes up, right? So.
• 42:40
  Well, even and just to add like one more thing on top of that,
• 42:43
  you know, amongst the Trump base, a new war.
• 42:47
  I mean, some people will be sold on the idea of war being good.
• 42:50
  You know, maybe they get caught up in the nationalism and think
• 42:53
  and actually believe what Trump is saying as as the real goal
• 42:58
  and and a benefit to everyone. But from a younger perspective,
• 43:02
  it does feel like the Trump base is being betrayed by Trump
• 43:07
  himself with this war on Iran. And another wrinkle on the money
• 43:10
  printer idea is the midterms are coming up and if they want to
• 43:14
  maintain the power that they have, they want to maintain the
• 43:17
  House, they're going to have to print more money so that at
• 43:20
  least the perception of the economy is that people are doing
• 43:23
  better. Like essentially buying votes
• 43:25
  off, you know, buying your vote off by printing a lot of money
• 43:28
  so that people feel richer going into the midterm.
• 43:31
  So I think that's two kind of ideas of the money printers
• 43:34
  probably going on, whether it's for war or to buy off the, you
• 43:37
  know, the vote. It's, it's almost what like damn
• 43:41
  near guaranteed that it's, it's going to get turned on very soon
• 43:44
  and it might be a boatload of money.
• 43:47
  Yeah, but I mean, it's super fucked up that we even have to
• 43:49
  say that, right? Like it's super messed up.
• 43:52
  And like, like it's super, super messed up.
• 43:55
  Like this is such a crazy world, ladies and gentlemen.
• 43:58
  But I mean, it boils down to this.
• 44:00
  Like, you know, this is, this is central banking, ladies and
• 44:04
  gentlemen, this is central banking for you.
• 44:06
  Central banking, this is literally central banking.
• 44:09
  This is what central banking enables.
• 44:11
  This is what central banking enables governments to do.
• 44:15
  And I don't, and I think that the vast majority of the
• 44:17
  population, I think they're, they're is they're simple in the
• 44:21
  sense that, you know, they want to be able to make a decent
• 44:25
  living to feed their family. They want to be able to live a
• 44:28
  life with dignity. And I think that these types of
• 44:32
  actions are just like so disconnected with what the
• 44:36
  majority of the population wants.
• 44:39
  And it's going back to my initial point.
• 44:41
  Imagine if all of that money, all of that money that was all
• 44:45
  that, all that treasure that was spent in Afghanistan, in Iraq,
• 44:51
  in Iran was used to build up America.
• 44:55
  Like what, you know, you guys have seen that meme where it's
• 44:58
  like the future, future city. And it all looks like all
• 45:01
  futuristic and stuff. Like, you know, that's what the
• 45:04
  United States would look like today if they use those
• 45:07
  trillions of like, it's like people can't afford healthcare,
• 45:10
  but they're literally like, I don't know if you guys have seen
• 45:12
  the interceptor missiles. So like Iran's missiles cost
• 45:16
  like a quarter, $1,000,000 each, right?
• 45:18
  And each interceptor missile to shoot down one of these missiles
• 45:21
  cost like $11 million each, right?
• 45:24
  Think, think about how much of an 11,000,000, $1,000,000 is.
• 45:27
  And they shoot on average like 3 missiles.
• 45:29
  So it's like $30 million down the drain, right, to shoot down
• 45:35
  one of these $250,000 cruise missiles that are coming out of
• 45:39
  Iran. Like, I mean, the math on that
• 45:42
  ain't math then, bro. Like that's $30 million.
• 45:45
  Like, how much healthcare can you pay with that?
• 45:48
  Like, for how many people? Like, you can't convince me at
• 45:52
  this point that this is about freedom.
• 45:54
  You can't convince me at this point that this is about the
• 45:57
  protection of the country. Like, you can't convince me.
• 46:00
  I, I, I don't believe it. Like I remember the two 2008
• 46:04
  financial crisis. I remember how banks made
• 46:06
  terrible decisions nuke the American economy.
• 46:10
  And I remember how Main Street ended up bailing out Wall
• 46:13
  Street. And this is exactly why Bitcoin
• 46:16
  was born. Literally Bitcoin was born.
• 46:19
  It says it in the genesis block chance from the brink of the
• 46:22
  second bailout for banks, right? Washington does not represent
• 46:27
  the American people. Washington represents, as Arthur
• 46:31
  Hayes puts it, the PACs, Americana elite.
• 46:35
  That's what they represent. They, the, the Washington
• 46:38
  represents the interests of an elite class that clearly the
• 46:42
  vast majority of people are not in that.
• 46:46
  And Trump ran a whole campaign on representing the people on
• 46:51
  America first, on populism. And on Friday, whenever these,
• 46:56
  you know, whenever this war started, he completely betrayed
• 47:00
  that base 100%. And because of that, I think the
• 47:04
  Republicans are going to get absolutely wiped during the
• 47:08
  midterms. And as a bitcoiner, right, the
• 47:12
  only pro Bitcoin legislation that you know is, is getting
• 47:15
  passed through Congress, the Clarity Act.
• 47:18
  That is completely going to be stopped 100% if the Republicans
• 47:24
  lose the House. And then the cycle will have to
• 47:29
  repeat itself. And I guarantee you, you know,
• 47:32
  the Dems are going to run someone that is going to come
• 47:35
  out there and say, hey, we're not going to go to war.
• 47:38
  And I promise you that whoever they they elect into office, I
• 47:41
  promise you that same person, he's going to get tapped into
• 47:44
  the tapped on the shoulder, escorted into the room, get told
• 47:49
  some stuff we're not Privy to, and then boom, more bombs in the
• 47:53
  Middle East. Crazy stuff, bro, Crazy, crazy
• 47:58
  stuff. Anyways, Bitcoin fixes this, but
• 48:01
  enough people need to, you know, own it.
• 48:03
  Enough people need to take self custody.
• 48:05
  And I think if enough people opt out of this system, I think we
• 48:09
  we can actually win. But this is a movement.
• 48:12
  Without a shadow of a doubt, this is a movement when you're
• 48:15
  when you buy Bitcoin and you put your savings in Bitcoin and that
• 48:20
  Bitcoin's in self custody, you are voting against this system.
• 48:24
  You are voting against the war machine, you're voting against
• 48:28
  Fiat. So it's all I got to say about
• 48:32
  that. Guys.
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  We're going to start the show. It's going to be a great show.
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• 50:46
  These globalists want to squander all of America's
• 50:49
  strength, blood and treasure, chasing monsters and phantoms
• 50:55
  overseas. In addition, there must also be
• 50:58
  a complete commitment to dismantling the entire globalist
• 51:03
  neo con establishment that is perpetually dragging us into
• 51:07
  endless wars pretending to fight for freedom and democracy
• 51:11
  abroad. We should have never got into
• 51:13
  the Middle East. We should have never got into
• 51:15
  the Middle East. Under my leadership, we will
• 51:17
  turn the page forever. One of those foolish stupid days
• 51:22
  of never ending wars. We're rebuilding our military
• 51:25
  stronger than ever before and we are not going to deplete it
• 51:29
  again on stupid senseless endless wars.
• 51:36
  World War 3 has never been closer than it is right now.
• 51:40
  We need to clean House of all of the war mongers and America last
• 51:44
  globalist in the deep state. I am the president who delivers
• 51:48
  peace. I was the 1st president in
• 51:50
  decades who didn't start a war. And the worst, most incompetent,
• 51:54
  most corrupt president in history is going to drag us into
• 51:58
  World War three. And this horrible, horrible
• 52:01
  president is dragging us toward World War three.
• 52:05
  We're going to be in World War three soon because I think we
• 52:08
  would have been good with Iran. I don't want to do anything bad
• 52:10
  to Iran. Large sections of the Middle
• 52:13
  East. I mean look at the death and
• 52:14
  destruction. That's second place.
• 52:18
  Come on now, come on now, come on, come on.
• 52:26
  But but the only faith I have left, ladies and gentlemen, is
• 52:29
  Bitcoin. All right, so only faith I have
• 52:32
  left. I, I literally my faith in
• 52:34
  humanity is Bitcoin. That it's like Bitcoin is of
• 52:40
  course, Christ number one, but Bitcoin #2 because again, I, I,
• 52:46
  I just, I don't, I don't see, just don't see things changing.
• 52:50
  I don't like that montage he ran on that he ran on that.
• 52:57
  You guys have to remember that, right?
• 53:02
  Crazy stuff. Anyways, let's get to today's
• 53:05
  numbers, shall we? At the time of recording.
• 53:08
  Thank you Opti. The Bitcoin price is $69,150.
• 53:12
  That's per dollar 1446 block height 939,037 Realized monetary
• 53:18
  inflation .84% market capitalization 1.38 trillion
• 53:23
  Bitcoin versus gold market got 4.62% percentage issued 95.22%
• 53:28
  decline from all time high -45% so if you're buying Bitcoin
• 53:32
  right now, you're getting it at a 45% discount, which I think is
• 53:37
  a nice discount. It's a nice discount.
• 53:40
  Anyways, back to opening up the conversation, Opti.
• 53:43
  How fucking wild was that video bro?
• 53:46
  Well, you know, it's hard for me to not take a victory lap here
• 53:50
  today, Nico, because you know, I, I'm, I'm totally vindicated
• 53:53
  here. Take that victory lap.
• 53:54
  I am. I'm totally vindicated here.
• 53:56
  I've been saying for a long time, I, I mean, remember what
• 54:00
  was it? Opti gate 2 point O or Opti
• 54:03
  gate, the first one. I'm like, dude, it doesn't
• 54:05
  matter what president, they're going to print money, they're
• 54:07
  going to go to war. This is why I look.
• 54:10
  Maybe it's because I'm getting older now, maybe because I'm
• 54:13
  maturing a little bit, that now politics is very interesting to
• 54:17
  me. Geopolitics is probably the only
• 54:20
  thing that interests me at the current moment.
• 54:22
  Maybe it's because everything, excuse me, guys, maybe it cuts
• 54:25
  everything going on in the world that that's like the only thing
• 54:28
  I really care about. That's the only thing I'm really
• 54:30
  watching. Again, maybe it's because I'm a
• 54:31
  boomer now, I'm unk here. You know, I'm getting older and
• 54:34
  it's kind of one of those things as it, it seems to be that as
• 54:38
  like men get older, we start to care about politics.
• 54:41
  And so, you know, Nico and I had a lot of a lot of disagreements
• 54:46
  about politics when Trump was getting elected.
• 54:49
  Nico was yelling at me like, Yo, you got to vote for Trump
• 54:52
  because of, you know, Ross and because of Bitcoin stuff.
• 54:55
  He's the first Bitcoin president.
• 54:56
  And I'm like, I, I'm not falling for this.
• 54:58
  I, I voted once, I got scammed. I'm not doing it again.
• 55:02
  And now I'm like, aren't I so glad I didn't vote for it?
• 55:05
  Look, you can't blame me for this.
• 55:07
  No, he did get Ross free, right? The Genius Act passed, but
• 55:11
  that's the Stablecoin Act. Of course they're going to pass
• 55:13
  the Stablecoin Act because that propagates the US dollar.
• 55:18
  But the Clarity Act, which is the the act that I care about
• 55:22
  specifically because it protects the right to sell, it enshrines
• 55:26
  the right to self custody on a legislative level that that
• 55:32
  doesn't look too good. Well, I did see the Poly market
• 55:35
  odds did go up a little bit over the weekend, but I'm convinced
• 55:38
  it's not going to happen. Yeah, I, I I've been saying that
• 55:41
  since like October. I mean, yeah, like, I I think
• 55:44
  it's cooked. I mean, they they have been
• 55:46
  saying, hey, you know, the banks want this to pass.
• 55:49
  We're coming to the conversation.
• 55:51
  Here's. The tough part, Opti like,
• 55:53
  here's the tough part, right like.
• 55:55
  Wait, wait, someone said. So Opti voted Communist
• 55:57
  Democrat. No, you know there's a third
• 55:59
  option, not vote. But but but here's here's the
• 56:04
  here's here's like the tough, like here's the the quagmire
• 56:08
  that I guess we're all in right, which is like I'm very happy I
• 56:13
  voted for Trump because it ended operation choke .2 point O like
• 56:17
  I'm very happy that Ross Ulbricht was free.
• 56:20
  Just that in itself is a major victory.
• 56:24
  You know, so in that regard, like I'm very happy, but like
• 56:28
  where I'm kind of like bummed out on right is like like, OK,
• 56:32
  so we have to pick between, you know, the anti Bitcoin war party
• 56:39
  or the pro Bitcoin war party, right?
• 56:41
  Like those are two choices. Those aren't great choices.
• 56:45
  Bro well that's pseudo Bitcoin war party.
• 56:49
  Yeah, those aren't great. You know what I'm trying to say?
• 56:51
  It's like the anti anti war Bitcoin party and like the kind
• 56:54
  of Bitcoin war party. But it's like those aren't great
• 56:56
  choices. Like if you if you had, you have
• 56:59
  the choice between the two. Like they they aren't really
• 57:01
  good. Like they're kind of dog shit,
• 57:04
  to be honest. It's the.
• 57:07
  South Park, you're voting for a turd and a turd sandwich or
• 57:11
  whatever. Whatever that South Park clip
• 57:13
  is, yeah. Like you, you just like it's not
• 57:16
  a it's not a really good choice. Like I'm, I'm not like, Oh my
• 57:19
  God, like, you know, it's it's not that great.
• 57:24
  Like it's not that great. Like look like, let's talk about
• 57:27
  this for a second. Like Vietnam start there
• 57:35
  disaster. All right.
• 57:37
  I think that the only war that you can say was like somewhat
• 57:41
  successful after World War 2 was Korea.
• 57:45
  And that ended up with North Korea and South Korea.
• 57:49
  And then South Korea remains free and democratic in a
• 57:52
  capitalist country and it's very prosperous.
• 57:56
  And you could say, OK, I was kind of worth it right then
• 58:04
  Vietnam disaster. That was just, it was just a bad
• 58:09
  idea. It's a bad idea.
• 58:11
  Didn't work out what comes after that, all the like, little small
• 58:18
  incursions in between, but the next big one I would say is
• 58:21
  Iraq. What was the outcome of Iraq?
• 58:26
  ISIS disaster? Afghanistan 20 years.
• 58:33
  What was the outcome of Afghanistan?
• 58:36
  The Taliban ends up becoming the government.
• 58:39
  The US loses the war disaster. We lose we we leave a bunch of
• 58:45
  military equipment. 2026 Iran. Well, you we, we are.
• 58:56
  You are assuming it's going to be another forever war though.
• 59:00
  I mean, I'm. Look, OK fine, I'll take your
• 59:03
  argument. I'm just saying we, we don't
• 59:05
  know how long this is going to. Last is all I'm saying.
• 59:07
  I'll take, he said. Minimum 4 weeks.
• 59:09
  That's not a good sign. I mean, I agree, I think it is
• 59:11
  going to be a forever war, but I'm just saying but. 43 Here's
• 59:15
  the thing though. Here's the here's the here's the
• 59:17
  fundamental issue, right? So I saw someone in the rumble
• 59:21
  chat talk about Venezuela. Venezuela 1 is different.
• 59:25
  Let me tell you why the Venezuela 1 is different.
• 59:28
  They kidnapped Maduro, but they left the security apparatus in
• 59:32
  place, right? So Delci Rodriguez, which is the
• 59:36
  vice president, remains in power, and she's incentivized to
• 59:41
  cooperate with the United States.
• 59:43
  And now Venezuela is sending oil to the United States because the
• 59:46
  leadership essentially fears for their lives.
• 59:48
  And they're cooperating, right? But there is no power vacuum.
• 59:53
  Not only that, there's not an ideological component to this,
• 59:57
  right? Iran, they literally took out
• 1:00:00
  the entire leadership. And that the outcome of that is
• 1:00:06
  it will create a power vacuum. And historically speaking, those
• 1:00:11
  power vacuums that have been created, like look at what
• 1:00:14
  happened to Libya when they took out Gaddafi.
• 1:00:17
  It was a disaster. It was a disaster of a disaster
• 1:00:20
  of a disaster. So I mean like.
• 1:00:27
  Bro like, like you're looking at me and you're saying but Nico
• 1:00:30
  this time is different. No, all I'm saying is we're on
• 1:00:33
  day three. We, we, we're, we're assuming
• 1:00:36
  it's going to be another 20 year like a rock.
• 1:00:38
  I'm just saying it's day three. We don't know.
• 1:00:42
  We don't. Know minimum 4 weeks.
• 1:00:43
  And the most fucked up part of all about all this is like, as
• 1:00:48
  Arthur Hayes said, like the longer it continues, the more
• 1:00:53
  likelihood maybe this was Trump's plan all along for them
• 1:00:56
  to finally lower interest rates. That's stretch, dude.
• 1:01:01
  Trump 5D plan. That's a stretch.
• 1:01:03
  No, it's totally but. But you know, I think the first
• 1:01:06
  part of the sentence is probably right.
• 1:01:08
  What? Which part?
• 1:01:09
  Maybe this has been Trump's plan all along.
• 1:01:11
  I don't know. Anyways, all right guys, let's
• 1:01:19
  get to the next segment. We're going to be right back in
• 1:01:21
  just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
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  world use promo code simply to get 20% off anything on the
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  website. Let's jump into today's news
• 1:04:35
  story on a more positive light. Michael Saylor, Chad Saylor
• 1:04:40
  doesn't give a flying a flying F about what's going on in
• 1:04:44
  geopolitics and he is once again buying the debt.
• 1:04:49
  Sailor purchased more than $200 million in Bitcoin last week.
• 1:04:54
  The latest purchase funded through common and preferred
• 1:04:58
  stock sales lifted total holdings to 720,000 coins.
• 1:05:04
  He's very close to that one million coin level valued at
• 1:05:09
  more than $47 billion. Strategy, the world's largestly
• 1:05:14
  public largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin,
• 1:05:18
  expanded its position last week by acquiring 3015 BTC for
• 1:05:24
  approximately $204 million on an average price of $67,000 per
• 1:05:32
  coin. To fund the buys, Strategy
• 1:05:36
  raised roughly 229,000,000 through common stock sales,
• 1:05:42
  along with 7.1 million in net proceeds of its variable rate
• 1:05:47
  Series A perpetual stretch preferred stock, or the STRCI.
• 1:05:52
  Actually really like the STRC. Man that thing is badass. 11.75%
• 1:06:00
  return in, in dividends on a yearly basis, which is really,
• 1:06:05
  really cool. So instead of, and it, the, the
• 1:06:09
  stock prices seems to be holding at $100.00.
• 1:06:13
  So, so cool. And I mean, like what the
• 1:06:16
  implications of that are are, are crazy because essentially
• 1:06:21
  look, it currently pays an annual dividend of 11.5%.
• 1:06:26
  That's wild bro. Right now bonds are at 444.05
• 1:06:32
  percent. So STRC, again, if you need
• 1:06:38
  fixed income, right, you have $100,000, you know, laying
• 1:06:44
  around, but you, you can't put it in Bitcoin because of the
• 1:06:49
  volatility and you need that cash flow for whatever reason.
• 1:06:54
  You put it in STRC, you're getting an 11.5% return, meaning
• 1:06:58
  you're getting $11,000, $11,000 return on $100,000 investment.
• 1:07:04
  And that compounds if you leave the money in there, you don't
• 1:07:07
  take the cash out. I think for people that are kind
• 1:07:10
  of retired and are, are really into fixed income, I think this
• 1:07:16
  is like one of the best things you could buy right now to be
• 1:07:20
  honest with you. And of course it's powered by
• 1:07:23
  Bitcoin and it's powered by the assumption that Bitcoin is going
• 1:07:27
  to continue to have that 20 to 30% kagar.
• 1:07:32
  That's that's sailors philosophy.
• 1:07:34
  That's why he's offering that 11.5% dividend because
• 1:07:40
  essentially he's taking out the risk of the volatility and he's
• 1:07:44
  keeping the spread. So he's betting that
• 1:07:47
  MicroStrategy is going to outperform that 11.5% dividend
• 1:07:51
  or or Bitcoin is going to outperform that 11.5 annual
• 1:07:55
  dividend heading into the future.
• 1:07:58
  And it seems like the market agrees with him by the way,
• 1:08:02
  because this stock essentially since they launched it in July
• 1:08:07
  2025, and this is a stock that's paying a dividend.
• 1:08:10
  It launched at $88 and it's been trading flat essentially.
• 1:08:14
  It had a little bit of a downturn, but it's been trading
• 1:08:17
  flat for the better part of since August 11th, 2025.
• 1:08:23
  S the market even believes in this.
• 1:08:27
  This is pretty cool. This is pretty badass.
• 1:08:29
  This is this is going to this is going to give bonds a run for
• 1:08:35
  their money. This is more than double what a
• 1:08:39
  almost triple what a what a what AUS treasury bill would give a
• 1:08:43
  usually U.S. Treasury would give you right
• 1:08:45
  now at 4%. Obviously, there's more risk,
• 1:08:50
  Opti, I think that's on your side.
• 1:08:54
  No, it's a computer I think. I think it's Sophie's over
• 1:08:57
  there, but that implies, you know, that imply that implies
• 1:09:05
  that the market has confidence in this.
• 1:09:06
  I mean like here, let me share my screen from some.
• 1:09:12
  So when when it launched at 88% at $88 in 2025, it's up 100.
• 1:09:18
  It's not supposed to go up wildly, ladies and gentlemen.
• 1:09:21
  It's supposed to maintain. It's supposed to be relatively
• 1:09:24
  flat because it is playing that. If it is playing that dividend,
• 1:09:28
  that dividend is crazy, dude. Yeah, Yeah.
• 1:09:34
  I mean, that's crazy. I mean, let's see if, let's see.
• 1:09:38
  Because like Saylor would fundamentally, like I, I heard
• 1:09:41
  people calling this the iPhone moment, like if he's able to
• 1:09:44
  keep this up for like half a decade or a decade, dude, that's
• 1:09:48
  wild. That's fundamentally going to
• 1:09:50
  change the fixed income markets fueled by Bitcoin.
• 1:09:55
  Wild, wild, wild, wild. I'm not like, I'm not a, a stock
• 1:09:59
  guy, guys. Like I'm, you know, Opti and I
• 1:10:02
  come from the, you know, spot BIC.
• 1:10:04
  We don't own any, but we come from the spot Bitcoin and take
• 1:10:07
  it into self custody era in Bitcoin's history, like
• 1:10:10
  20/16/2017. But I'm looking at this and I'm
• 1:10:14
  like, you know, this is great. This is, this is, this is
• 1:10:17
  fantastic. Like think about it, like think
• 1:10:20
  about all the things you have to go through with real estate,
• 1:10:23
  like and real estate, what gives you like 8%, but you have to
• 1:10:25
  deal with the tenants, you have to deal with management if
• 1:10:28
  something breaks. And here you have a stock that
• 1:10:32
  literally you can buy and it gives you an 11.5% return on a
• 1:10:37
  yearly basis without you having to do any of that stuff.
• 1:10:41
  That's wild to me. That's wild.
• 1:10:46
  Yeah, I have AI, have a couple of friends that they tried to
• 1:10:50
  explain to me that's like stretch and all this stuff.
• 1:10:53
  And I'm just like, dude, spot Bitcoin.
• 1:10:55
  I'll simplify. But no, but the point is like, I
• 1:10:58
  have friends that are literally like living off of that 11% and
• 1:11:05
  they'll just like, they're basically, you know, pseudo
• 1:11:07
  retired now. They're just bitcoiners that
• 1:11:08
  been in it for a long time and they're 11 percent is, is paying
• 1:11:13
  their their cost of living. And I'm like, you know, that
• 1:11:15
  sounds really good. That sounds like a really good
• 1:11:17
  idea, but you know me, I'm I since I don't understand it, I'm
• 1:11:21
  just like wait, Bitcoin just just spot Bitcoin is all I need.
• 1:11:25
  I, I see people saying it will always be $100 per share.
• 1:11:28
  No, it won't like it. It, it, it's supposed to be 100.
• 1:11:32
  The if it's $100 per share, that means the market has confidence
• 1:11:35
  in it. I I bet you it's as soon as the
• 1:11:39
  market loses confidence in that share, it's not it's going to
• 1:11:44
  be, it's going to dip below $100 and as soon as the market sniffs
• 1:11:48
  that Sailor isn't going to be able to pay that 11.5% dividend
• 1:11:55
  or whatever it is, it's going to dip below $100 per share that I
• 1:12:00
  guarantee you. So and I see people in the chat,
• 1:12:06
  BTCMSTRMS and STRC is 90% of my income portfolio.
• 1:12:11
  Now the monthly distributions from S from STRC give me the
• 1:12:16
  freedom to watch this podcast on a random Monday and never having
• 1:12:20
  a boss again. Yeah.
• 1:12:22
  That's what my friends are doing.
• 1:12:23
  I got a couple of friends of. Custody and sovereign
• 1:12:25
  individually, these stocks aren't Bitcoin 100%, but guys
• 1:12:28
  like like realistically, like I'm telling you like that
• 1:12:32
  return. Is this is the game changer?
• 1:12:33
  That that return is wild. It's so wild.
• 1:12:36
  Like guys like, look, 'cause I, I you before, way before I got
• 1:12:40
  into Bitcoin, I worked in commercial real estate and 8%,
• 1:12:44
  eight to 10% return was wild. But to get that 8 to 10% return
• 1:12:49
  on a commercial property and a rental property, the hoops that
• 1:12:53
  you would need to jump through, like you have to manage tenants,
• 1:12:56
  you're going to have vacancies, things are going to break.
• 1:12:58
  You have to replace those things and it eats into that 8 to 10,
• 1:13:02
  eight to 10% return. Sailors coming out here and
• 1:13:05
  basically saying you don't need to do any of that shit.
• 1:13:09
  Basically, I'm going to give you a guaranteed 11.5% return on a
• 1:13:14
  yearly basis. And the way he's the mechanism
• 1:13:17
  of which he's doing that with is he's basically betting that
• 1:13:23
  Bitcoin is going to outperform that 11% dividend that he has to
• 1:13:29
  pay on a yearly basis. And then he keeps the spread.
• 1:13:32
  So essentially, he takes out the risk and he gives you a
• 1:13:35
  guaranteed return. But this is all assuming that
• 1:13:39
  Bitcoin's going to have that 20 to 30% kagar.
• 1:13:46
  If he goes below 100, he increases the yield.
• 1:13:49
  Yeah, bro, but things will break and things will break.
• 1:13:54
  Sailor's Gangster 10% of your own money back.
• 1:13:58
  The the other thing I do want to talk about is just the fact that
• 1:14:02
  he bought more Bitcoin. I don't know if you guys saw
• 1:14:04
  him. I, I think it was like a clip
• 1:14:07
  going around, but I saw it as a quote and it was something on
• 1:14:10
  the lines of Sailor basically saying like, look, if you guys
• 1:14:14
  keep selling this Bitcoin, I'm going to keep scooping it up.
• 1:14:17
  And he has like single handedly bought.
• 1:14:19
  I think it's like 2/3 of all the Bitcoin in the in the last year
• 1:14:23
  or so. It's like it's literally just
• 1:14:25
  Sailor buying all the Bitcoin right now.
• 1:14:27
  It's absolutely insane to watch. Yeah, it's but but like dude,
• 1:14:31
  like if he nails it, it's going to.
• 1:14:34
  Be the richest guy ever. But not only that, it's going
• 1:14:36
  to, it's going to, it's it, it's going to fundamentally change
• 1:14:40
  the way the markets work. Guys, this is like I'm telling
• 1:14:43
  you that this is a game changer. And I'm not even a a stock guy.
• 1:14:46
  I'm not even like a, a trad FI guy like, but I'm telling you
• 1:14:51
  like if you are into fixed income and this guy's
• 1:14:56
  essentially, it's not a guarantee obviously, but like
• 1:15:00
  he's offering you 11 point and there's risks involved and all
• 1:15:03
  that stuff, but he's, he's offering you an 11% return.
• 1:15:07
  Like that's very, very attractive.
• 1:15:10
  I'm, I'm not going to lie to you and, and what I think you're
• 1:15:15
  going to start to see is I think you're going to start to see
• 1:15:17
  people like Bitcoiners, like wealthy Bitcoiners, they're
• 1:15:20
  just, they're just going to start living off that.
• 1:15:22
  Yeah, I mean, I I'm seeing that already like they're.
• 1:15:25
  Just going to start living off of that.
• 1:15:26
  They sell a portion of their Bitcoin, they put it into the
• 1:15:29
  STRC and they just, they essentially start collecting
• 1:15:33
  rent, you know, in the form of dividends.
• 1:15:35
  Yeah, I I'm seeing this happen right now.
• 1:15:38
  So you know, this is a game changer.
• 1:15:41
  Like this is literally a game changer.
• 1:15:43
  This is going to change how financial markets work.
• 1:15:45
  But it, it, it, this is the, and I'm, and I'm of course, guys,
• 1:15:48
  I'm oversimplifying all of this. This is, this is called simply
• 1:15:51
  Bitcoin after all, right? I'm oversimplifying all of this,
• 1:15:55
  but this is all based on Michael Saylor's bet that Bitcoin has a
• 1:16:01
  20 to 30% kagar heading into the future.
• 1:16:03
  If that maintains true, he can keep this up.
• 1:16:08
  So that's the big bet. And if that bet ends up becoming
• 1:16:14
  true, which we all think it is, yeah.
• 1:16:16
  I'm kind of on board with. Them we all think it is, you
• 1:16:19
  know, I think MicroStrategy is going to be one of the, you
• 1:16:22
  know, one of the wealth, one of one of the highest market cap
• 1:16:25
  companies in the world. Like, I really believe that.
• 1:16:29
  And basically becoming a bank. I, I don't even know that dude,
• 1:16:33
  like I don't even know what they'll do, but like this is
• 1:16:35
  crazy, man. Like so many people are going to
• 1:16:38
  be able to just like like bitcoiners, there's so many
• 1:16:40
  people are just going to be able to just like quit their jobs and
• 1:16:43
  just like live off of the, the dividends off of off this STRC
• 1:16:48
  or whatever. They're just going to be like, I
• 1:16:50
  don't want to work anymore. I mean, dude, the math maths,
• 1:16:52
  bro, look like you have $1,000,000.
• 1:16:57
  If you put it into this, you get 100, you get 110 KA year, you
• 1:17:01
  have $2,000,000, you get 210 KA year, you put $3,000,000, you
• 1:17:05
  get 330330KA year roughly. That's wild.
• 1:17:12
  That's wild, dude. Anyhow, all right, moving on to
• 1:17:16
  the last part of the show, the culture, ladies and gentlemen,
• 1:17:18
  we're going to be right back just a bit.
• 1:17:21
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  I hope to see you guys there Bitcoin 2026.
• 1:18:56
  Anyways, I want to open this up to Opti.
• 1:18:59
  I mean crazy cultural moment. What do you?
• 1:19:02
  What do you what what? What's on your mind, culturally
• 1:19:05
  speaking? I don't know, I mean, I, I'm,
• 1:19:11
  I'm like looking at what's going on with Bitcoin right now.
• 1:19:14
  Obviously the geopolitical stuff is, is insane to watch.
• 1:19:18
  That's that's definitely I think top of everyone's mind right
• 1:19:21
  now, you know, wondering where are we currently?
• 1:19:25
  What's going to happen in the markets?
• 1:19:27
  And if you're, you know, it's very easy to look at what's
• 1:19:31
  going on currently and getting pessimistic and really, you
• 1:19:35
  know, black pilled and doomer right now.
• 1:19:37
  Like some of my friends are just super black pilled right now,
• 1:19:40
  super just doomer. And I'm just like, bro, life's
• 1:19:43
  electric. Don't don't fall for this doom
• 1:19:45
  stuff like this is not the way to live it.
• 1:19:48
  It's really actually, someone asked like a pretty good
• 1:19:50
  question in the beginning of the show on the idea of like, OK, so
• 1:19:54
  like, So what if everything we're saying in the beginning of
• 1:19:57
  the show is true? Like, So what?
• 1:19:58
  Like, what can you do? And I'm kind of just still on
• 1:20:02
  the same same wave I've been on for a while.
• 1:20:05
  It's like, look, yes, there's a lot of stuff going on in the
• 1:20:08
  world, but most of it is out of my control.
• 1:20:11
  The only things that are really in my control is like what I
• 1:20:14
  eat. If I work out, if I stack stats,
• 1:20:18
  like my mentality going on right now.
• 1:20:20
  So yes, I am caught up like everyone else monitoring the
• 1:20:23
  situation, but a lot of it of what I'm personally doing is
• 1:20:27
  just like, continue what I'm doing, make sure I'm in the
• 1:20:31
  fittest I can be, make sure I'm eating well, make sure I'm
• 1:20:34
  working out, make sure I I'm able to stack some Bitcoin.
• 1:20:37
  It's like we're still on, you know, 2026 ascension, getting
• 1:20:42
  ourselves to be the best we can be.
• 1:20:43
  Yes, there's a lot of crazy stuff going on.
• 1:20:45
  Yes, the Bitcoin price is out of our control, but I don't think
• 1:20:50
  it's as bad in terms of Bitcoin that we all make it out to be.
• 1:20:55
  One of the things I've been kind of watching lately on Twitter is
• 1:20:58
  just, it does seem like there is a lot of engagement farming
• 1:21:01
  going on, especially in, in the context of what happened in the,
• 1:21:06
  you know, the attack on on Friday.
• 1:21:08
  I don't know if you guys were on Twitter over the weekend, but
• 1:21:11
  there was a lot of misinformation.
• 1:21:13
  There was a lot of misleading posts.
• 1:21:14
  There was a there's a lot of lot of money on the line right now
• 1:21:18
  to make you believe a certain thing.
• 1:21:21
  And people are rehashing old, you know, old videos, literal
• 1:21:27
  just straight up fake news stuff.
• 1:21:29
  And it's getting incredible engagement on Twitter right now.
• 1:21:32
  And so one of the things I'm kind of been thinking on is, is
• 1:21:35
  and and I hate using the term, but like your information
• 1:21:38
  hygiene right now is, is just like watch what you are
• 1:21:42
  watching. Watch the information that
• 1:21:44
  you're in taking right now because there is a lot of
• 1:21:47
  incentives, or rather there's a lot of people with the
• 1:21:49
  incentives to lead you to a certain, you know, end goal.
• 1:21:54
  And part of what I've been trying to do is obviously, look,
• 1:21:56
  I, I have two brain cells left. You guys know, I, I have a 42 IQ
• 1:22:00
  here. You know, people in the chat
• 1:22:01
  call me dumb all the time. It's like, yeah, I tell you that
• 1:22:03
  I am all the time. Like I'm I'm I'm not out here
• 1:22:06
  saying I'm smarter than I am, but what I do think I still
• 1:22:10
  somewhat maintain is some semblance of critical thinking.
• 1:22:15
  It might not be the best, I'm not the smartest person here,
• 1:22:17
  but I am always looking at what I am actually digesting, what
• 1:22:23
  media am I looking at, what are the sources telling me and what
• 1:22:26
  are their incentives and who are behind them.
• 1:22:29
  I think it's more important than ever right now to really hone in
• 1:22:32
  on who is saying what and maybe what their incentives are moving
• 1:22:37
  forward. And I think this is probably the
• 1:22:39
  most important thing that we could be doing culturally right
• 1:22:41
  now is kind of understanding like, like, you know, the
• 1:22:46
  saying, follow the money. Who are the people that are
• 1:22:50
  blowing up on social media right now?
• 1:22:52
  What are they telling you? What do they what are they, what
• 1:22:55
  are their incentives? What do they have to gain from
• 1:22:58
  you believing these certain narratives?
• 1:23:00
  And right now, I think a lot of us need to do our best to, you
• 1:23:04
  know, critically think and and try to read between the lines.
• 1:23:07
  Like where are they trying to lead us?
• 1:23:09
  What are we doing here? Like what, what is this message
• 1:23:11
  trying to do to me? Where is this this message
• 1:23:13
  coming from? That's a lot of the stuff I'm
• 1:23:16
  going and I'm thinking about constantly because, you know,
• 1:23:19
  you, you talk to your friends and family and they do get
• 1:23:22
  caught up in the headlines and, and everyone doesn't really know
• 1:23:25
  what's going on. Part of war is confusion.
• 1:23:28
  And I don't know about you guys, but over the weekend, I know I
• 1:23:31
  was refreshing my timeline and, and searching like, OK, is this
• 1:23:35
  actually happening? I, I know there was a lot of
• 1:23:37
  confusion over the, you know, the death of, of a supreme
• 1:23:41
  leader Kimani at the, at the, forgive me if I messed up the
• 1:23:44
  last name. And, you know, we got reports
• 1:23:47
  that, oh, you know, he got assassinated.
• 1:23:49
  And then it seemed like, oh, wait, he didn't.
• 1:23:52
  And then we had Trump come out and say, like, oh, confirmed.
• 1:23:55
  And there was still a lot of debate on whether this actually
• 1:23:59
  happened or not until, you know, an hour or so later when it was
• 1:24:02
  confirmed on Iranian state news. And so you're seeing there is a
• 1:24:07
  information war going on right now.
• 1:24:09
  And that is part of war, misdirection, not knowing what's
• 1:24:13
  what. But so I'm really kind of
• 1:24:15
  focusing back on just the basics, like what can I do?
• 1:24:18
  What can I actually do in this situation?
• 1:24:20
  Obviously we come out here and we talk about Bitcoin, we talk
• 1:24:22
  about a lot of cultural stuff, what's happening in the world,
• 1:24:25
  but always with this Bitcoin lens.
• 1:24:28
  Part of that is like, look, we're human.
• 1:24:30
  We don't know all the information, but with the
• 1:24:32
  information that we're working with, we try to give you the
• 1:24:35
  best, you know, analysis we can. We try to give you the best
• 1:24:38
  Bitcoin perspective on all this stuff.
• 1:24:40
  And when we get more information, you guys know me,
• 1:24:43
  I've been on the show for the last year or so and every time I
• 1:24:45
  get new information, I'm digesting that and putting that
• 1:24:48
  into my my framework, my perspective on the world.
• 1:24:52
  And some of you guys in the chat were like, Oh, you guys are flip
• 1:24:55
  flopping on on the story in the news.
• 1:24:57
  I'm like, look, I didn't have all the information, I didn't
• 1:25:00
  process the information. And now it's like, I think it is
• 1:25:04
  important right now to maybe take a step back, maybe monitor
• 1:25:08
  the situation less. You know, don't get caught up on
• 1:25:11
  the social media hype trends right now because it is going
• 1:25:14
  into OverDrive. There is a coordinated effort to
• 1:25:19
  hijack your brain and it's more important than ever to at times
• 1:25:23
  put the phone down. You know, what can you actually
• 1:25:26
  do to improve your lives? Probably not being on Twitter
• 1:25:29
  all the time, getting caught up in all of the doomer stuff.
• 1:25:32
  Now, I do want to hit on one thing real quick 'cause we did
• 1:25:35
  get some pretty important information this morning and I'm
• 1:25:39
  not saying that this necessarily means, you know bear market over
• 1:25:43
  per SE. I'm not necessarily saying we
• 1:25:45
  might not see another drop in Bitcoin price, but it is
• 1:25:49
  starting to leave the narrative that we might be seeing some
• 1:25:52
  bullish indicators building as we speak and of course, if you
• 1:25:56
  guys are on Twitter, then you probably know what I'm talking
• 1:25:59
  about. But the ISMPMI numbers came out
• 1:26:01
  and for the second month, it shows that the economy is in
• 1:26:05
  expansion right now. We got a a report of 52.4, a
• 1:26:10
  little higher than expectations. And of course ISM manufacturing
• 1:26:13
  PMI came in higher shots of Joe Consorti higher than expected
• 1:26:17
  today in expansion for the second month in a row.
• 1:26:19
  After three years of contraction, US manufacturing is
• 1:26:22
  back in expansion. Historically this has lined up
• 1:26:25
  with every start of a Bitcoin bull market, of course excluding
• 1:26:29
  2022. So there is some bullish
• 1:26:32
  indicators, you know, that's probably being lost right now in
• 1:26:36
  the face of the whole war in the Middle East, the whole, you
• 1:26:40
  know, US bombing or US, Israel joint bombing of of Iran.
• 1:26:44
  There is a lot of confusion right now.
• 1:26:46
  And again, we will only be able to look back at the price of
• 1:26:50
  Bitcoin in hindsight and realize, oh, that was the
• 1:26:52
  bottom. So in the meantime, it does look
• 1:26:55
  like we are still in a very deep value buying opportunity of
• 1:26:59
  Bitcoin. And Nick Bhatia, you know, went
• 1:27:02
  a little further on this same idea and he goes Bitcoin trading
• 1:27:05
  well and strong US manufacturing this morning and elevated prices
• 1:27:08
  paid last month above 50, 50 print confirmed today.
• 1:27:14
  Last month's above 50 print confirmed today.
• 1:27:17
  The manufacturing industry is back in expansion, of course,
• 1:27:20
  after three years of contraction.
• 1:27:21
  So it's not all doom and gloom. Yes, as I've been telling you
• 1:27:26
  guys and I, I think as we've all been feeling the last couple of
• 1:27:29
  weeks, there is a demoralization campaign right now and it's
• 1:27:34
  working pretty good sentiment around Bitcoin.
• 1:27:39
  It's probably as bad as I've ever seen it since I've been in
• 1:27:42
  Bitcoin in from 2017. We are on you know, 5 red
• 1:27:48
  months. It's been a brutal, brutal drop
• 1:27:51
  here. Even though we're above 60 K,
• 1:27:53
  we're potentially going to see, you know, who knows what happens
• 1:27:56
  in this month, But if we see another red month, this is like
• 1:27:59
  the longest streak of monthly consecutive red candles.
• 1:28:03
  So we might be getting towards the end of the bottom or rather
• 1:28:08
  the end of a bear market nearing bottom soon.
• 1:28:11
  The information isn't it isn't, you know, necessarily saying
• 1:28:14
  hey, bull market's back on the table.
• 1:28:16
  But the on chain metrics, all of the data, the indicators that we
• 1:28:20
  can all look at is starting to kind of say, hey, look, all
• 1:28:23
  right, maybe the worst is behind us.
• 1:28:26
  Maybe we're coming to the end here.
• 1:28:27
  Maybe we're starting to find a bottom here.
• 1:28:29
  So it's not all bad yet. Yes, there's a lot of crazy
• 1:28:32
  stuff going on in the world right now.
• 1:28:33
  It's it's, you know, hard to ignore.
• 1:28:36
  Like if you had any conversation with your friends and family and
• 1:28:39
  you are on Twitter for even a little bit, everyone is kind of
• 1:28:42
  saying the same thing. It's like, wow, are we going?
• 1:28:44
  Is this, is this the start of World War Three right now?
• 1:28:46
  Like, what is going on? Everyone's trying to figure out
• 1:28:48
  what's going on. So I would, I would just kind of
• 1:28:52
  say, you know, take a step back, focus on what you can do in your
• 1:28:56
  personal life to better your position, whether that's your
• 1:29:00
  health, whether that's your wealth, whether that's your
• 1:29:02
  relationships. Right now is the time to really
• 1:29:05
  focus on you because it's very easy to get caught up in the
• 1:29:08
  exterior and things that are happening outside of your
• 1:29:11
  control. And as, as I've always thought,
• 1:29:14
  you know, big corners are usually generally very level
• 1:29:17
  headed, but we're all human and we still get caught up in a lot
• 1:29:20
  of stuff and, and sometimes you get caught up in the hype.
• 1:29:23
  I think right now is the time. Hey, let's let's take a step
• 1:29:26
  back. Continue to stack sads, continue
• 1:29:30
  to get your health up. 2026 were what you know, the end of the
• 1:29:34
  second month. There's still a lot of time left
• 1:29:36
  in this year. Let's not get caught up in the
• 1:29:39
  doomer stuff. Well, you know, we're optimists
• 1:29:41
  here. This is why the, the pseudonym
• 1:29:43
  optimist is a thing. We got to make sure we are,
• 1:29:45
  we're maintaining the positivity here and not just delusional
• 1:29:48
  positivity. You got to always look for, for
• 1:29:51
  the good in things. And you know, I, I know I'm a
• 1:29:53
  little woo woo right now, but things are crazy.
• 1:29:57
  You know, you got to got to make sure that you are level headed
• 1:29:59
  throughout whatever comes, you know, whatever comes next,
• 1:30:02
  Whether we're seeing the greatest sigh up right now to
• 1:30:05
  demoralize Bitcoin, we'll only know in hindsight.
• 1:30:09
  Whether we're seeing psyops playing out on the geopolitical
• 1:30:13
  scale again, we'll only know in hindsight.
• 1:30:15
  But I would just say, you know, steal your mind.
• 1:30:17
  Be prepared right now 'cause things are getting absolutely
• 1:30:20
  crazy. Make sure you're getting some
• 1:30:21
  sun. All that good stuff.
• 1:30:23
  You, you guys know I say, I say basically the same thing all the
• 1:30:25
  time because really this, this whole show is usually just a lot
• 1:30:30
  of different ways to show you, hey, your health is important.
• 1:30:35
  You need to stack stats, you need to take care of yourself
• 1:30:38
  and your family for you need to put the oxygen mask on 1st.
• 1:30:42
  And the world is designed right now to, you know, make you very
• 1:30:46
  weak mentally and physically. But I want everyone out there to
• 1:30:49
  be freaking warriors, you know, tip top shape, got your finances
• 1:30:54
  right. We are all trying to objectively
• 1:30:56
  find the truth what is actually happening in the world.
• 1:31:00
  You know, we make mistakes we may we may not have all the
• 1:31:03
  information, maybe there's some hang ups that prevent us from
• 1:31:07
  seeing things clearly, but if we all you know, this is a back and
• 1:31:11
  forth thing here. You guys know I hang out with
• 1:31:13
  you guys in the chat every single day.
• 1:31:15
  I read the comments. You know I'm updating what what
• 1:31:18
  I'm thinking based on your feedback live on the show.
• 1:31:22
  I'm constantly thinking about what is going, what is
• 1:31:25
  happening, where are we going yes, I have a bias.
• 1:31:28
  I am I am always bullish. I'm a bull tarred.
• 1:31:31
  You know, that's that's just who I am.
• 1:31:34
  I'm I'm a constantly bullish on Bitcoin and I and I've been
• 1:31:36
  wrong and I've eaten, I've eaten those, you know, I've eaten
• 1:31:39
  those words multiple times, but let's make sure that we're not
• 1:31:44
  we're not getting emotional here.
• 1:31:46
  We got to be stoic, logical soldiers, warriors right now.
• 1:31:50
  It really is the most important time in history.
• 1:31:53
  And I know that gets thrown around a lot, but this is a
• 1:31:58
  historical moment that we're all going through right now without
• 1:32:01
  a doubt. So, you know, as Bitcoiners, we
• 1:32:04
  want to acquire more Bitcoin, we want to live a long, healthy
• 1:32:07
  life, make sure our families are good, make sure you're good.
• 1:32:10
  If you don't have a family yet, you know, we're building towards
• 1:32:13
  that. You know, I'm building towards
• 1:32:14
  that. But you know, I have my mother,
• 1:32:17
  I have my, I have my brother and my sister and my parents, you
• 1:32:21
  know, like we all have people that we're responsible for.
• 1:32:24
  So we show up every day, try to give as much value and, and
• 1:32:27
  whatever job you have, that's the goal.
• 1:32:29
  Be as productive as possible. That's kind of what I'm
• 1:32:32
  thinking. I'm, I'm really going back to
• 1:32:34
  basics of like, hey, what is in my control here?
• 1:32:37
  Because as, as we can all see, there's a lot of stuff outside
• 1:32:40
  of our control. And yes, it's our jobs to be
• 1:32:42
  talking heads, but let's not get caught up in the stuff that we
• 1:32:47
  can't control here. I, I think that's probably like
• 1:32:49
  my, you know, motivational opti ramp for, for, for the start of
• 1:32:55
  March. All right, can we do the outro?
• 1:32:58
  Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah.
• 1:32:59
  Do your outro and I got this, I got this.
• 1:33:01
  All right everybody, if you guys enjoyed the show, you know what
• 1:33:03
  to do smash that like button and consider subscribing to Simply
• 1:33:05
  Bitcoin. Shout out to the YouTube chat.
• 1:33:08
  Shout out to the Rumble chat, which was absolutely wild today.
• 1:33:10
  Shout out to the X chat as well. If you guys are watching us on
• 1:33:13
  your favorite live streaming platform, shout out to you.
• 1:33:15
  Thank you guys so much for tuning in to Simply Bitcoin.
• 1:33:17
  We wouldn't be here without you. Subscribe to the channel and we
• 1:33:22
  appreciate it. Smash the like button on
• 1:33:24
  whatever platform you're on. If you're listening to us on the
• 1:33:27
  audio platforms, shout out to you guys as well.
• 1:33:29
  We appreciate you guys. Thank you guys so much for
• 1:33:31
  tuning in to Simply Bitcoin Live.
• 1:33:33
  We'll see you guys tomorrow for a brand new episode.
• 1:33:40
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• 1:33:43
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