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Will Bitcoin CRASH to $55K After the Super Bowl?! | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  What's up y'all, this is Dante cook with Bitcoin simply coming
• 0:02
  at y'all with a special Super Bowl edition.
• 0:04
  You're probably with family and friends.
• 0:06
  So many of you are going to be getting trolled because bitcoins
• 0:08
  AT701K. We will definitely see a Dos
• 0:10
  Eckes Bitcoin commercial. I don't always buy the Bitcoin
• 0:13
  dip, but when I do it dips even more.
• 0:16
  Not sure why I had a Spanish accent there, probably because
• 0:19
  I'm thinking about having to translate into Spanish with the
• 0:22
  bad Bunny halftime show. I know if you're like me, this
• 0:24
  is probably the least interested you've ever been in a Super
• 0:27
  Bowl. Let's start off with the simple
• 0:29
  fact that the ocean for this Super Bowl has been absolutely
• 0:32
  trash. Who did the design for this
• 0:34
  Super Bowl? I'm an Eagles fan, obviously,
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  and still salty. Seeing a Seahawk in the Super
• 0:39
  Bowl is like having your crackhead cousin or your drunk
• 0:42
  uncle come to your wedding. They made it, but you know that
• 0:45
  they shouldn't be there. Who picked this lineup?
• 0:47
  Ain't nobody trying to listen to Green Day for the opener and
• 0:50
  have Google Translate open to watch the halftime show.
• 0:53
  I was hating on the Seahawks earlier, but I used to love
• 0:55
  Russell Wilson. But the true national treasure
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  of the Seahawks, who I think are going to win tonight, is
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  Marshawn Lynch. And like Marshawn Lynch, Bitcoin
• 1:03
  is going to be the last thing standing at the end of the Fiat
• 1:05
  collapse. Proud.
• 1:06
  Silent now as opposed to when? The Saints have the ball.
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  Oh, look at this run. What a run.
• 1:13
  Marshawn Lynch still has blockers.
• 1:18
  Now he's dancing his way for the touchdown.
• 1:25
  Now, honestly, there's people at your Super Bowl party that still
• 1:28
  believe that Bitcoin is still $69,000 too high, like Aunt
• 1:32
  Jemima Kelly who wrote this article for the Financial Time.
• 1:35
  She's like many misinformed people that the only way to make
• 1:38
  truly outsize gains in any market is to have some sort of
• 1:41
  arbitrage and informational arbitrage.
• 1:44
  What we are experiencing right now, Danny, is an as an
• 1:48
  information or a knowledge arbitrage.
• 1:51
  And so people just do not yet understand how Bitcoin is
• 1:54
  different and why it is the ultimate store value and the
• 1:59
  ultimate debasement asset. They just don't understand it
• 2:02
  yet. There's a lot of confusion
• 2:04
  there. You know, the, the, the
• 2:06
  mainstream media puts out confusing and, and hit pieces
• 2:09
  about it all the time. They commingle it with all the
• 2:12
  other cryptocurrencies and they just call them all the same
• 2:16
  thing. And so I have friends who say,
• 2:17
  Oh yeah, I own that. I own Bitcoin, I own the, the,
• 2:20
  the Solana one. And it's like they just don't
• 2:23
  get it. And it's OK.
• 2:24
  It's not their fault. They're, they're just not
• 2:27
  interested in doing the doing the research themselves.
• 2:30
  And they're listening to mainstream media and getting
• 2:32
  their, their news off of Facebook or their research off
• 2:35
  of Facebook. They're just not getting it.
• 2:37
  And so there is an information arbitrage that you and I are
• 2:40
  experiencing right now. It feels bad and it makes you
• 2:44
  feel like, am I an idiot? Am I just stupid that I'm, how
• 2:49
  early am I here? And the answer is you're still
• 2:52
  pretty early because I, I think that that Bitcoin is going to
• 2:55
  trade above $1,000,000 in early 20 thirties, 20322033.
• 3:00
  I would be very surprised if we're not touching $1,000,000
• 3:04
  Bitcoin. That's me.
• 3:06
  That's my thesis. That's why I believe this thing
• 3:08
  is going. The gap between reality and
• 3:12
  perception, between what you know and understand about the
• 3:14
  world and what other people believe.
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  And that's exactly where we are in Bitcoin right now.
• 3:19
  If you believe there's no value, then Bitcoin should go to zero.
• 3:22
  There is no appropriate price. But the best Bitcoin analysts
• 3:25
  out there, and if you're like me and are a Bitcoiner, well, he
• 3:29
  says that we're near the end of this bear market.
• 3:31
  If you truly believe that Bitcoin is now dead and the path
• 3:34
  is towards 0, then this bear market has no flaw and therefore
• 3:38
  turn it all off, walk away, you know it's over.
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  Who cares, None of this matters. If on the other hand, and I
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  would wager the pretty much everyone listening to this
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  except for you, Peter Schiff, everyone listening to this
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  believes the other path, which is it's probably not dead, then
• 3:51
  you go, well, where are we in the bear?
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  We're in the bottom 20% based on every mean reversion model you
• 3:58
  can possibly imagine. Technical, on chain, the whole
• 4:00
  thing. Are we at the bottom?
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  Who knows? This is probably likely to
• 4:04
  inspire some capitulation based on the fear that we've got.
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  So like we've got a lot of the recipes in there for and the
• 4:08
  ingredients for creating that capitulation.
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  It'll take time. It'll probably go down more,
• 4:14
  it'll be choppy, it'll be painful.
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  You get bear market rallies, you get the hope back in, you'll buy
• 4:18
  it at that rally, then it will sell back off again.
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  It's going to be a process, but unless your decision trees of
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  Bitcoin is dead, this bear market has an end.
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  And we've done a lot of the work in my view, we've done a lot of
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  the work. I used it in my my piece
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  recently. I used 2 analogies 1.
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  I like the idea of like the the bison bison when the storm comes
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  a snowstorm or a storm, they turn and face it and they
• 4:42
  basically go through it because it's the fastest way to get to
• 4:44
  the other side or everything else runs away from the storm
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  and gets rinsed the whole way. And the other one is you've got
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  your, you know, your mate on a desert island and he swims 80%
• 4:53
  of the way back to shore, gets tired, decides to turn back
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  around. It's like go to the last 20%,
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  push through. I'll give you 2 reasons why I
• 5:00
  believe that we're at the end of this Bitcoin bear market.
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  People don't understand that we're at the end of a 70 year
• 5:05
  cycle after post World War 2 where the United States was able
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  to dominate the global financial markets.
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  And what they did to make the dollar supreme is that they
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  outsource American manufacturing to other countries in order to
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  prop up the dollar into the dollar debt.
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  They then use their military to protect sovereign nations in
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  countries and waterways to open up global trade.
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  This decreased manufacturing from the United States and
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  outsource it to other places in the world.
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  This also decreased the United States share of global GDP as
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  other nations have stolen IPS, stolen our information, stolen
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  our jobs, and gotten wealthy in the process.
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  Now, I'm not saying that in a negative way or facetious way.
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  I'm just looking at the number in the data and I'm speaking
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  from an American perspective. And so heavy is the head of the
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  king that wears the crown. The dollar has gotten so big
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  that it's now collapsing on itself.
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  And so now Trump is implementing policies in order to earn back
• 5:53
  revenue from partners via tariffs.
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  This is step one of his plan. Step 2, to increase the value of
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  the dollar in global markets, they're going to start to
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  decrease the value of the dollar so that the value of other
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  people's currencies goes up. And they don't want that.
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  That makes their debt more expensive and their markets less
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  attractive. So what they're going to do in
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  order to regain balance is they're going to have to buy
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  more long dated United States Treasury debt.
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  Step #3 decrease the United States's need to have other
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  countries own our own debt through United States Treasuries
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  in a traditional form. And what they're going to do is
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  they're going to create a new market entirely through stable
• 6:27
  coin in digital assets. A good compromise as everyone
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  leaves a little bit unhappy, right?
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  But I, I think what's going to happen is that after market
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  structure passes, the banks are going to get fully into the
• 6:37
  crypto industry. So we're not going to have a
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  separate banking industry and crypto industry.
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  It's going to be 1 digital assets industry.
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  And I think their opinions are going to evolve over time.
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  And I bet you over time, the banks like the idea of paying
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  yield because they're going to be in the stable coin.
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  Business, but will they also be regulated the same way?
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  And I guess that's a big, I mean, the banks will say, hey,
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  if they get to do all the same things we do, how come and they
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  don't get regulated the same way?
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  Well, I guess because they're offering slightly different
• 7:01
  products, right. So, but I mean everyone offering
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  the same products should be up, should be regulated in the same
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  way and we want to get to that harmonization.
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  In the big gap that's happening between that and where we are
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  now is the Clarity Act. And when that happens, there's
• 7:15
  not going to be a banking industry in a crypto, in digital
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  assets industry. There's going to be just the
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  digital assets industry, the big gatekeeper for bitcoins price
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  going to the moon. Well, it's going to be big
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  institutions getting into Bitcoin, and they're not not
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  going to do that without clarity.
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  That's why next week, this meeting on the Digital Clarity
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  Act and all of the open discussions between senators
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  like Senator Lummus and even the conversation she had with Scott
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  Besson are really telling that we are near the finish line of
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  getting this Clarity Act across the line.
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  It's important for the United States to rebuild the economic
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  system upon which they want to build their sovereignty in the
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  global sphere. The gatekeeper from trillions of
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  dollars flowing into the industry through big
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  institutions and banks is the Clarity Act.
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  One of the real gatekeepers here is it's the Clarity Act.
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  I think there's a lot of fence sitters, institutions,
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  commercial banks and otherwise that are really not going to
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  move on Bitcoin until they get clarity from the US government.
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  And so I think it's a coin toss now whether or not that gets
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  approved. Some of the Democratic senators
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  I've spoken to say that it will, but I think that's one of the
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  big gating factors here and and this is typical volatility for
• 8:21
  Bitcoin. There are trillions of dollars
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  waiting on the sideline, and if you had to dream up a perfect
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  scenario if you're a bitcoiner for mass adoption moving
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  forward, whether you believe that the bank should be involved
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  or not, it's a pro Bitcoin regulatory framework and it's a
• 8:35
  pro digital asset industry with United States banking systems on
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  our side. Listen to what Michael Saylor
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  had to say about the next two big catalysts.
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  The second topic is, is really one of the catalyst for for
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  Bitcoin price to improve like I, I think the the fundamental
• 8:52
  catalysts are regulatory support.
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  We have a very, we have the most constructive, constructive set
• 9:03
  of financial regulators in the history of the industry right
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  now. The head of the Fed, the head of
• 9:07
  the Treasury, the head of the CFTC, the head of the SEC and
• 9:12
  the White House has a digital assets czar, right?
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  Those five things are massive gold flags.
• 9:20
  They're all very positive and and generally you would expect
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  that something goodwill come probably out of the CFTC or the
• 9:30
  SEC as they are constructive about facilitating financial
• 9:34
  companies to innovate in the digital asset space, right.
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  I, I would been skeptical about that two years ago, but I think
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  I think for you to be skeptical about their support for digital
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  innovation today would be, would be ignoring all the words from
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  everybody in those positions. And I think that the second, the
• 9:56
  second catalyst will be banking adoption, the formation of the
• 10:00
  banking credit networks as, as the large banks and as companies
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  like Schwab, they start to allow you to trade Bitcoin, custody
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  crypt Bitcoin, borrow against Bitcoin.
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  They're going to legitimize the asset and, and they're going to
• 10:20
  decrease the volatility of the asset.
• 10:22
  They're going to improve the usefulness of the asset.
• 10:27
  You know, you're, you're aware of the announcement of the Black
• 10:31
  Rock Bitcoin volatility income fund that came like about a week
• 10:35
  ago where they said they were going to sell volatility or
• 10:37
  generate income. And a lot of people that
• 10:40
  speculate that will decrease the volatility of Bitcoin and and
• 10:43
  put more a more stable floor into the asset.
• 10:48
  So I think the actions by big finance, the actions by the big
• 10:53
  banks and the actions by the financial regulators are the
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  fundamentals. I mean, those are the
• 10:59
  fundamental things. And if you were to light a
• 11:01
  candle and pray, you know, to the gods of the crypto sphere,
• 11:06
  you know, you would say, I want pro digital assets regulators, I
• 11:11
  want pro digital assets banks, and I want pro digital assets
• 11:15
  financial innovations like Blackrock's bringing in the
• 11:19
  market like we're bringing to the market, right?
• 11:21
  You know, like STRC. But fundamentally, the
• 11:26
  industry's going to move forward because of enlightened
• 11:29
  regulation, engage thoughtful banking and then innovative
• 11:35
  finance. And that's what we're doing and
• 11:38
  that's what we see right now. Great.
• 11:43
  Thank you, Michael. Before we go any further on what
• 11:45
  the best analyst says is the bottom floor, which bitcoins
• 11:48
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  prepare yourself for a future as to when banks do get into
• 12:43
  Bitcoin and they might try to pull a 1934 gold act, which is
• 12:47
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• 12:49
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  keys. Schedule a free 30 minute
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  consultation with our team at the bitcoinway.com slash simply
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  Bitcoin. Well, where does Bitcoin go from
• 13:07
  here? I'm not a genie, but I do
• 13:09
  believe that it can go lower from here.
• 13:10
  One thing I know about real estate or other assets is people
• 13:13
  don't tend to sell their assets at a loss one everybody hates
• 13:17
  taxes and that's why you're putting it off right now when
• 13:19
  you should be doing them, but the other reason is it's largely
• 13:22
  psychological. We don't like to take else and
• 13:24
  that's why the best analysts in Bitcoin says that the realized
• 13:27
  cap in Bitcoin is 55 K and he doesn't believe that we're
• 13:30
  meaningfully going to fall below those levels.
• 13:32
  Listen to what he has to say about this, the real.
• 13:34
  Realized cap is actually, in my opinion, the most important
• 13:36
  metric in Bitcoin because it is a measure of how much people
• 13:40
  have saved. Actually dollar value saved in
• 13:43
  Bitcoin. The coins you bought back in
• 13:45
  2019 at 8K, they're saved at 8K, they're saved at the price when
• 13:49
  they were last moved on chain. Not a perfect measure, but even
• 13:53
  if you run the most magical entity adjustments and all that
• 13:57
  kind of stuff, the realized cap never deviates to more than 5%.
• 14:00
  It's one of those things where like at an individual level,
• 14:02
  there's error bars around it, but in aggregate, doesn't matter
• 14:05
  if finance is a consolidating staff, doesn't matter if you're
• 14:07
  moving from a cold card to a Ledger or back.
• 14:10
  The overall aggregate doesn't move by more than 5% over all
• 14:14
  its history. So that number, the amount of
• 14:17
  capital the Bitcoiners have saved in Bitcoin measurably is
• 14:21
  $1.1 trillion. That is about a 52.
• 14:25
  Oh no, sorry, be 5555 K. So if we go down to 55 K, you've
• 14:30
  got the 200 week moving average of like 57.
• 14:32
  That's like every bear market Wicks on that level.
• 14:34
  And by the way, there's no reason that every bear market of
• 14:36
  the past is indicative of the future.
• 14:39
  There are those classic things in markets.
• 14:41
  But if you just think about this from a core fundamental
• 14:43
  standpoint, it's kind of nice, the 200 week moving average.
• 14:47
  So all the technical boffins out there are going to look at that
• 14:49
  and say that's where it's going to bottom.
• 14:50
  The realized price of 55. That is where everyone has
• 14:54
  invested their capital. Let's think about this from a
• 14:56
  value investor perspective. You know a company like
• 15:00
  ExxonMobil is trading at an M NAV, right?
• 15:03
  An equivalent book value of 0.9. They've spent all this money
• 15:07
  building all of the infrastructure to pump oil.
• 15:11
  They've got all the smarts, all the people, all the the
• 15:13
  hardware, all the drilling rigs, all the pumps, everything.
• 15:17
  And you're going to sell that to me for less than what people
• 15:19
  paid for it. That's where Bitcoin is at 55 K.
• 15:23
  We as Bitcoiners have invested $1.1 trillion into this thing.
• 15:27
  AT55K you are buying Bitcoin at its all time book value, the
• 15:32
  actual book value for people who are real, like not Satoshi who
• 15:36
  doesn't transact and move and lost minor coins and all that
• 15:39
  stuff. That's the true market mean
• 15:40
  AT80K. So we're already below the
• 15:43
  average cost basis for normal people who are actually alive in
• 15:46
  the cycle and active. So we're in that I would say, I
• 15:50
  mean, in my opinion, personally, I think we're in the deep value
• 15:54
  zone below 70 I deemed to be deep value because we're in that
• 15:57
  bottom 20% of all price history across all models.
• 16:02
  Once you get down to the low fifties, you're now the
• 16:05
  territory where it's like, please make me a case that isn't
• 16:09
  a bottom. You are.
• 16:10
  You have to actually really go down the first path and say no,
• 16:13
  Bitcoin is dead. Once you get down to those low
• 16:16
  50s, you're now saying something is wrong with Bitcoin and we are
• 16:20
  truly going to 0. So that's kind of that's the
• 16:23
  framework here. Now if we go below 50, imagine
• 16:26
  the capitulation week, but you're still going to ask
• 16:28
  yourself that question, am I buying an asset that's truly
• 16:31
  going to 0 or are people just kind of overselling this thing
• 16:36
  and it comes back? Didn't stay humble.
• 16:38
  At this point, what am I doing? My closing remarks, the United
• 16:42
  States are sort of like the Patriots.
• 16:43
  You can go on winning for years and have a dynasty, but
• 16:46
  eventually that crown gets too heavy.
• 16:48
  You have big salary caps. You have big stars to get old.
• 16:51
  You have old systems that used to work that need to change.
• 16:54
  And that's what happened with the Patriots.
• 16:55
  They became the greatest. Tom Brady and Gronk left and
• 16:58
  they went to Tampa Bay and won some more.
• 17:00
  However, the Patriots were left in shambles.
• 17:03
  They went through several different quarterbacks, bad
• 17:05
  defenses, no stars on offense until they drafted Drake May out
• 17:08
  of North Carolina two years ago. And just like that, they had to
• 17:12
  collapse the system that worked for the past to create the
• 17:15
  system for the future. And that's what's going on.
• 17:18
  There's new blood, there's new leadership, there's a new change
• 17:20
  of direction in Mike Vrabel. And that's what's happening with
• 17:22
  the Patriots and that's what's happening in the US economic
• 17:25
  financial system. United States has dominated the
• 17:27
  global markets for 70 years under a certain regime.
• 17:30
  We're going to export jobs, we're going to export energy,
• 17:32
  we're going to protect everybody else without taking in any
• 17:35
  payment. And now we're reversing that
• 17:37
  with security payments, with tariffs, with onshoring
• 17:40
  manufacturing, with bringing down the price of oil, with
• 17:43
  having other currencies be valued higher against the
• 17:45
  dollar. And so what's that going to do?
• 17:47
  That's going to set up an opportunity to rebuild, rebuild
• 17:50
  under a new economic financial system.
• 17:52
  This is going to kick off around midterm elections in June of
• 17:55
  this year. So right now, I do believe
• 17:57
  Bitcoin is in deep value. This is the time to buy.
• 17:59
  When you buy low on the Patriots, when they have the
• 18:01
  number one or #2 overall pick. They're a great franchise.
• 18:04
  They're a great organization. Their system clearly works.
• 18:07
  Even though they do cheat, they did cheat in the past.
• 18:09
  They knew a lot of plays. I'm still a little bit salty
• 18:11
  about my guy Russ not winning his second Super Bowl in a row,
• 18:13
  which probably would have put him in the Hall of Fame versus a
• 18:15
  journeyman with the Giants where he is now.
• 18:17
  It's kind of weird if they didn't cheat and know the play
• 18:19
  that was going to happen at the 1 yard line.
• 18:20
  They didn't cheat, they just made a great play.
• 18:22
  Malcolm Butler, shout out and Congrats.
• 18:24
  That's a little football one-on-one for you here.
• 18:26
  This is a Super Bowl edition and I'm giving you the reasons why
• 18:29
  Bitcoin is in deep value right now and there are catos on the
• 18:32
  future that are going to propel Bitcoin even higher.
• 18:35
  Understand the big game. Understand that we are in an
• 18:37
  informational arbitrage between and what people believe.
• 18:41
  Some people believe that Bitcoin should go to zero.
• 18:42
  And if you do short it, well, the rest of us, we think it's
• 18:45
  going to $1,000,000 a coin. And one of the ways you can
• 18:47
  participate in that after Bitcoin has had one of its
• 18:50
  largest crashes in the history of Bitcoin over the past several
• 18:54
  days. Well, when that typically
• 18:55
  happens, miners capitulate. That's why the Bitcoin
• 18:59
  difficulty adjustment or how much Bitcoin you can get per
• 19:02
  mining hash that you put out there has gone down by 11%.
• 19:05
  That's the 10th largest in history.
• 19:06
  And that means that miners are going offline.
• 19:08
  And So what that means for people like you and me is that
• 19:10
  we can earn more Bitcoin sats if we were to get into Bitcoin
• 19:13
  mining. But how do you do that?
• 19:15
  Well, you don't set up a miner in your basement.
• 19:16
  You work with a company like SAS Mining who's able to help you
• 19:20
  mine Bitcoin with state-of-the-art mining machines
• 19:22
  and rigs. They look at them, they keep
• 19:23
  your uptime up above 99% and they just send you sats to your
• 19:26
  wallet. You get potential capital gains
• 19:28
  benefits like capital depreciation of those assets and
• 19:32
  you get sats flowing directly to your wallet, DCA ING every
• 19:35
  single month. Use the QR code on the screen to
• 19:37
  get started. This is down to cook with
• 19:39
  Bitcoin, Simply happy stacking and happy Super Bowl Go Eagles.