Latest / Thinking Transportation: Engaging Conversations about Transportation Innovations / Channeling George Jetson: We could have flying cars sooner than we think.
Transcript
- 0:14Bernie Fette (host): Welcome.
- 0:15Bernie Fette (host): This is Thinking Transportation.
- 0:17Bernie Fette (host): Conversations about how we get ourselves and the things we need from one place to another.
- 0:23Bernie Fette (host): I'm Bernie Fette with the Texas A&M Transportation Institute.
- 0:28Bernie Fette (host): This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Jetsons, an animated television series about a space-age family and their futuristic conveniences that included-- among other things-- flying cars.
- 0:43Bernie Fette (host): Decades later, those airborne sedans have a more scientific label: Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles.
- 0:51Bernie Fette (host): And with billions of investment dollars to back up the idea, low-altitude urban air travel is now much closer to reality than many of us thought possible.
- 1:01Bernie Fette (host): Jeff Borowiec is a senior research scientist at TTI, and he has answers to a lot of the questions that we might have on this subject.
- 1:10Bernie Fette (host): Thanks for being our guest today, Jeff.
- 1:13Jeff Borowiec (guest): Yeah.
- 1:13Jeff Borowiec (guest): Happy to be here.
- 1:14Jeff Borowiec (guest): Thanks, Bernie.
- 1:15Bernie Fette: When we say flying cars, people might imagine a lot of different visions or ideas of what exactly we mean.
- 1:22Bernie Fette: Since we don't have the benefit of video at the moment, can you begin by describing exactly what an electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle is?
- 1:32Jeff Borowiec: Sure.
- 1:32Jeff Borowiec: So we're still a little bit aways from flying cars, although you may have seen some concepts out there.
- 1:38Jeff Borowiec: But when we refer to electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, or EV- TOL vehicles, we're talking about a new type of aircraft, electric-powered, battery-powered, that has capabilities really like a helicopter.
- 1:53Jeff Borowiec: And so these concepts really have been spoken about in terms of this other concept of urban air mobility or UAM that we're hearing a lot about.
- 2:02Bernie Fette: Okay, where exactly are we in the research and development phase?
- 2:06Bernie Fette: How long ago did work start in this area and how long before we see lots of them in the air?
- 2:12Jeff Borowiec: Well, it's tough for me to say how long the development has been going on, but certainly for quite a few years.
- 2:19Jeff Borowiec: We didn't get to where we are overnight.
- 2:21Jeff Borowiec: So there's a lot of companies in this space that are developing EV-TOL aircraft.
- 2:27Jeff Borowiec: And a lot of them have a lot of backing from some very big companies in the technology sector and also in the automobile sector, too.
- 2:35Jeff Borowiec: There are still some issues to be ironed out, mostly with respect to aircraft certification, you know, are these new aircraft going to be certified and certified for what?
- 2:45Jeff Borowiec: And, and then how are they gonna fly and be integrated into our existing airspace structure that we have today?
- 2:52Bernie Fette: Okay, you mentioned the different kinds of companies that are involved.
- 2:55Bernie Fette: The funding for this research is not limited to the venture capital firms that we often associate with high-risk investment.
- 3:03Bernie Fette: What should the list of interested companies-- the list that includes familiar names like Toyota and Hyundai-- what does that list tell us about the realistic prospects for this form of travel?
- 3:14Jeff Borowiec: Well, I think it certainly has gotten the attention of a lot of folks.
- 3:17Jeff Borowiec: You know, this isn't the first time we've seen new aviation technologies or concepts, you know, come to light.
- 3:23Jeff Borowiec: Not that long ago, we saw the small aircraft transportation system, SATs.
- 3:27Jeff Borowiec: We saw the VLJs, the very light jets, and they were supposed to darken the skies, you know, around us because of density of their use.
- 3:35Jeff Borowiec: Um, and that never really happened.
- 3:36Jeff Borowiec: But what we did see from that was we did see some new lighter jet aircraft emerge, but by and large, the whole concept of the small aircraft transportation system never materialized the way a lot of folks thought.
- 3:50Jeff Borowiec: This time, it appears to be different.
- 3:52Jeff Borowiec: There's hundreds of millions of dollars being invested by these companies and really billions when you expand it out across the horizon of companies.
- 3:59Jeff Borowiec: And so it has a different feel.
- 4:01Jeff Borowiec: The folks that are involved are folks that are not just the venture capital folks, but also folks that have a long history in manufacturing and in using the technologies.
- 4:10Jeff Borowiec: And so that's kind of how we get to this urban air mobility concept is kind of a confluence of the new technology, the new systems, a whole new vision of sustainable power, electric power.
- 4:20Jeff Borowiec: And we're seeing a, a lot more work being done by, uh, NASA and the FAA with respect to how this is gonna play out with respect to aircraft certification and airspace management.
- 4:30Jeff Borowiec: So it definitely has a different feel.
- 4:33Bernie Fette: You again mentioned that these are electric-powered vehicles.
- 4:36Bernie Fette: Why electric?
- 4:37Bernie Fette: Is it because of weight, air quality?
- 4:39Bernie Fette: Why is that?
- 4:40Jeff Borowiec: You know, electric just like with the challenges with vehicles on the surface, it presents its own set of challenges.
- 4:46Jeff Borowiec: But it's a more sustainable fuel.
- 4:49Jeff Borowiec: It does have its own challenges with battery disposal, not to mention, can we get to the power that we need to operate aircraft at any kind of a scale?
- 4:59Jeff Borowiec: But it's definitely cleaner.
- 5:00Jeff Borowiec: There are issues with some general aviation fuels.
- 5:04Jeff Borowiec: So there's been a lot of movement and research and advancements in more sustainable aviation fuels.
- 5:09Jeff Borowiec: So, it's battery because we're taking advantage of kind of where all of this is going on the surface side and the aviation side is going into that direction too.
- 5:18Jeff Borowiec: And we're starting to see some larger electric-powered aircraft, two small airliner type of vehicles, uh, be developed with options for purchase on them from some major airlines, too.
- 5:28Jeff Borowiec: So it's not just these smaller two- to five- passenger EV-TOL vehicles we're talking about.
- 5:34Jeff Borowiec: Electric is moving into larger scale, too.
- 5:36Jeff Borowiec: But like I said, the challenges persist as to, uh, whether you can get the power needed to go much larger.
- 5:42Jeff Borowiec: Like we've seen on the surface side, the battery power technology continues to improve.
- 5:47Jeff Borowiec: And so we're still looking to see what kind of advancements we can take advantage of and how much further we can go.
- 5:53Bernie Fette: And since you brought up the issue of challenges, let's just stay on that for a minute, if we can.
- 5:58Bernie Fette: You talked about how the actual development of technology is a challenge.
- 6:02Bernie Fette: What about other issues like public opinion, public acceptance, electric grid?
- 6:07Bernie Fette: You know, you must have a long list of those.
- 6:09Jeff Borowiec: Sure.
- 6:09Jeff Borowiec: Well, there's no shortage of concerns.
- 6:12Jeff Borowiec: The public opinion, you know, we're learning about and some folks a dapt t o technology and are fine with it.
- 6:18Jeff Borowiec: Others are a little more hesitant.
- 6:20Jeff Borowiec: So I think younger generations may be more inclined to adopt it.
- 6:24Jeff Borowiec: So there's different levels of public acceptance.
- 6:27Jeff Borowiec: You know, if we see them materialize the way a lot of folks have been talking about, then we're gonna see a lot of them.
- 6:33Jeff Borowiec: A lot of these companies are, are saying, well, we w ant t o save so much time per day to the average commuter.
- 6:39Jeff Borowiec: And if that's the case, then we're gonna see a lot of them flying.
- 6:43Jeff Borowiec: And so it's not just the potential noise i mpacts that people may be concerned about, but also the visual, this aesthetic impact of seeing so many of them flying where they're not used to seeing t hem.
- 6:53Jeff Borowiec: And so it's like any other new technology it's gonna take some time i t get used to, but public perception certainly, and public acceptance is certainly gonna be on the radar, so to speak, for a w hile.
- 7:04Bernie Fette: And you mentioned some parallels with other technologies like self-driving cars.
- 7:09Bernie Fette: Not all that long ago, those predictions about self-driving cars were that they would be common by now.
- 7:15Bernie Fette: But, that hasn't happened.
- 7:18Bernie Fette: Do you see any evidence of overhyping the promise of, and I, I hesitate to use the word flying cars, but is there any chance that we could be getting ahead of ourselves in this dream?
- 7:28Jeff Borowiec: Yeah.
- 7:28Jeff Borowiec: I mean, that's always a caution, is we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves.
- 7:33Jeff Borowiec: There clearly are issues that we need to work on, but from a technology standpoint, just to put this out there, I mean, we've had aircraft with auto-land technology for quite a while.
- 7:44Jeff Borowiec: The thought that an airplane would be able to land itself or take off by itself-- I don't think that's really as farfetched.
- 7:51Jeff Borowiec: I think that while we have a lot to concern ourselves with, of automated aircraft, automated vehicles on the ground have a lot more conflict points.
- 8:00Jeff Borowiec: In the air, oftentimes aircraft are flown by just turning a button on an autopilot or flight director so we can see it'll turn and climb by itself.
- 8:09Jeff Borowiec: And so there's a lot of automation already in the cockpit of an aircraft.
- 8:14Jeff Borowiec: To me, I personally, I think less of the technology being a limitation and more, of, you know, other things to be the limitations.
- 8:24Jeff Borowiec: We still have the airspace management issue, which is a big deal.
- 8:27Jeff Borowiec: And so if we're talking about these operating below five or 600 feet, then we have to talk about how we integrate them into the existing airspace system, especially in urban areas where we might have other airports or busy airports.
- 8:41Jeff Borowiec: There still are challenges that need to be worked out about how that happens safely, especially if we're in a low-visibility environment.
- 8:49Jeff Borowiec: And so we still have challenges in airspace management.
- 8:53Bernie Fette: Right.
- 8:53Bernie Fette: And I'm glad we're getting into the safety topic.
- 8:55Bernie Fette: 'Cause that's something I think that certainly belongs in this conversation.
- 8:59Bernie Fette: If we look back a hundred years or so, we see that the automobiles came first and traffic safety laws in lots of cases followed later.
- 9:09Bernie Fette: The result was sometimes rather messy.
- 9:13Bernie Fette: What's being done now to focus on the airborne traffic laws so that we can avoid some of the chaos that we saw in that example in the early 1900s?
- 9:22Jeff Borowiec: Well, the laws about airspace, if you ask the Federal Aviation Administration, I think they'll tell you that they govern the airspace down to the ground, but there's, there's still some debate from some perspectives on this is still something that's being sorted out and that will have to take place before we have any subsequent move forward on that.
- 9:43Jeff Borowiec: So it's probably not fair for me to comment on that because I'm sure there's still gonna be some legal conversations about this, but it'll be interesting to see where those airspace rights come down and, and who's gonna be able to operate these aircraft, uh, from where.
- 9:58Jeff Borowiec: You know, we're talking about highly dense urban areas flying in and out of maybe airports to drop people off at the airport instead of taking a cab.
- 10:06Jeff Borowiec: We're talking about landing on rooftops, on parking garages, things like this.
- 10:10Jeff Borowiec: So there's just still a lot to be ironed out, but it's gonna--
- 10:14Bernie Fette: Those conversations are under way, right?
- 10:15Jeff Borowiec: Those conversations are underway, not only with respect to how we're gonna deal with the airspace, but how we're going to govern their takeoff areas.
- 10:23Jeff Borowiec: The so-called vertiports-- a vertiport can range from anywhere from a concrete landing pad, like a helipad to a fancy rooftop pad with terminals and all kinds of other amenities.
- 10:35Jeff Borowiec: And so there is no official FAA guidance on vertiports right now.
- 10:39Jeff Borowiec: The FAA advisory circular on vertiports is under design right now.
- 10:43Jeff Borowiec: And so we don't have any official guidance on what those will look like, but that'll come soon.
- 10:47Jeff Borowiec: And then I think they'll begin to tackle the airspace, and the airspace may be different like it is with our airports, the airspace issues and challenges are gonna be different for every site.
- 10:57Jeff Borowiec: They'll have to work those out to make sure that there's no interference from buildings or other obstructions and also any other interferences to the navigation systems and things like that.
- 11:07Bernie Fette: Yeah, and hearing you describe the different places where these vehicles would take off and land, makes me wonder a little about the infrastructure that we have now and how there have been some predictions that we might not need as much surface parking area in some places, depending on what happens with our traditional cars and pickups in the future.
- 11:30Bernie Fette: So how things unfold for where those vehicles take off and land might be influenced by what happens with the infrastructure we have for our other current forms of transportation, if I'm making any sense here.
- 11:46Jeff Borowiec: Well, I suppose it could, if we're starting to see some repurposing of some facilities, I mean, there's a, a vertiport company that's partnered with a company that focuses on parking and parking garages.
- 11:57Jeff Borowiec: And so we can kind of see those synergies there and what they're thinking.
- 12:01Jeff Borowiec: And so it's possible that we see existing parking garages, repurposed.
- 12:04Jeff Borowiec: I, I, it's interesting to note that a lot of these companies, the EV-TOL companies are looking to build their own aircraft, operate their own surface and own their own infrastructure.
- 12:13Jeff Borowiec: So that presents other issues.
- 12:15Jeff Borowiec: When we talk about infrastructure, if, if we've got two or three of these companies that are serving the same area, are we really gonna be having three different vertiports, complexes in the same area?
- 12:25Jeff Borowiec: And just like on the electric vehicle side, on the ground, we see issues emerging with the interoperability and all of them may have their own charging plugs, you know, that are, um, proprietary.
- 12:37Jeff Borowiec: They may have their own systems, their own power needs.
- 12:39Jeff Borowiec: And so everything could be different.
- 12:41Jeff Borowiec: And those are things that we need to sort out.
- 12:43Jeff Borowiec: If we have six operators in a downtown area, I don't know that we want to have six different vertiports downtown.
- 12:48Jeff Borowiec: That really complicates their space management issue.
- 12:51Jeff Borowiec: So you can see that we're still kind of early in this.
- 12:53Jeff Borowiec: We do have aircraft certification going on with some of them in the U.S., But we still have a long ways to go.
- 13:00Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 13:00Bernie Fette: Looking at this just a little more broadly for a moment, I'm, I'm curious about what's driving the whole idea.
- 13:06Bernie Fette: How much of it is driven by practical needs, for instance, as a remedy, as one remedy for roadway congestion, for instance, and how much of it is driven by other motivations, whatever those motivations might be.
- 13:21Bernie Fette: Can you talk about that just a minute?
- 13:22Jeff Borowiec: Well, initially this concept I think was really kind of brought to light by Uber and their Uber Elevate organization, which has since been sold off to Joby Aviation.
- 13:35Jeff Borowiec: And Uber Elevate was the first to publish a white paper, I think, five, six years ago on this topic and say, this is kind of what we expect, you know, that we can achieve.
- 13:45Jeff Borowiec: And we can do this to save you time.
- 13:47Jeff Borowiec: And we can also do it at the same cost, but those cost points were assuming that the vehicle and the service were fully automated.
- 13:55Jeff Borowiec: So there was no pilot on board, so you didn't have that pilot cost.
- 13:58Jeff Borowiec: So something kind of further on down the road.
- 14:01Jeff Borowiec: And so really it was to say,"Hey, we can save you this money.
- 14:04Jeff Borowiec: We can put you above the traffic and we can do it safely.
- 14:08Jeff Borowiec: And we can do it at the same cost." And there's different markets too, for this, not all of it is necessarily for commuting.
- 14:14Jeff Borowiec: Some of our work that we've done has shown that there's really kind of three initial markets that are being looked at.
- 14:20Jeff Borowiec: One is this air metro market, which is kind of like public transportation, if you look at it.
- 14:25Jeff Borowiec: So this is the, you know, would be regularly scheduled, predetermined routes type of thing.
- 14:30Jeff Borowiec: Then there's the air taxi market, which is kind of like what you would use an Uber for is say, oh, I need to, you know, I'm gonna go out to dinner and we'll just take an Uber.
- 14:38Jeff Borowiec: That would be the air taxi.
- 14:39Jeff Borowiec: So it's a door-to-door service and it's not on a scheduled route.
- 14:43Jeff Borowiec: And then there's last-mile cargo delivery that folks are also looking into.
- 14:47Jeff Borowiec: And, of course, there are limitations on the weight for that too, but those are kind of three of the initial focus areas for these.
- 14:54Jeff Borowiec: And if you look at motivations across those three areas, you can start to see that what's about saving time without compromising the cost and also to reduce congestion both in terms of passenger and cargo movement, too.
- 15:10Bernie Fette: Okay.
- 15:11Bernie Fette: Is anybody against this idea?
- 15:14Jeff Borowiec: That's a good question.
- 15:16Jeff Borowiec: I'm sure that there are folks that don't wanna see more aircraft in their views.
- 15:21Jeff Borowiec: I think that the folks that are probably are against it are folks that may be the ones to be impacted the most by it, whether it's from noise or from additional traffic that it brings.
- 15:31Jeff Borowiec: But usually what I've seen is not folks that are opposed to it.
- 15:35Jeff Borowiec: It's just folks that wouldn't necessarily use it because they don't see themselves doing it for whatever reasons they, they don't like to fly or they think it's gonna cost too much or wouldn't benefit them.
- 15:45Jeff Borowiec: But I imagine that there are folks, just like with expansions of other modes, there are folks that are gonna be impacted.
- 15:52Jeff Borowiec: They may be against it.
- 15:53Jeff Borowiec: Yeah.
- 15:54Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 15:54Bernie Fette: And only a few years ago, TTI did a study that asked the question about self-driving cars.
- 16:00Bernie Fette: Would you, or would you not consider owning one of these or using one of these?
- 16:05Bernie Fette: And the responses were split exactly down the middle.
- 16:07Bernie Fette: Half said that they would, half said that they would not.
- 16:10Jeff Borowiec: And I think it probably changes as the concept evolves.
- 16:14Jeff Borowiec: You know, it's one thing, if this is an FAA-certified aircraft and the FAA's managing the airspace and it's safe and the pilot's on board, then there may be people that are all for it.
- 16:24Jeff Borowiec: And when you take the pilot out of it, then that could really change the the calculus a little bit too.
- 16:29Jeff Borowiec: So yeah.
- 16:31Bernie Fette: Right.
- 16:31Bernie Fette: Here's your chance to get in trouble.
- 16:35Bernie Fette: Give us a prediction.
- 16:37Bernie Fette: What do you think will be the next couple of big milestones that would be noticeable?
- 16:44Bernie Fette: Not just to the folks in the research and technology and R and D business, but milestones in the coming years, that would be noticeable to the general public.
- 16:52Jeff Borowiec: I, I think we're gonna see some of these aircraft actually certified by the FAA.
- 16:57Jeff Borowiec: And I don't know why we wouldn't, because they're going through the same process.
- 17:00Jeff Borowiec: Uh, they have the same equipment and I think that we're gonna see the FAA issue the vertiport guidance.
- 17:06Jeff Borowiec: And we're gonna see some cities who have been on the leading edge of this, try to, uh, move forward in developing vertiports.
- 17:11Jeff Borowiec: I'm cautiously optimistic that we're gonna see this materialize to some extent.
- 17:17Jeff Borowiec: And so I, I would say if we come back in 18 to 24 months, I would say that we would see some movement.
- 17:24Jeff Borowiec: Now are the skies gonna be darkened by EV-TOLs?
- 17:27Jeff Borowiec: Probably not.
- 17:28Jeff Borowiec: But I do think we're gonna see some steady progress towards this concept and system with respect to implementation.
- 17:35Bernie Fette: How many years before taking one of these vehicles instead of an Uber or a Lyft would be practical for you and your few guests?
- 17:47Jeff Borowiec: Wow.
- 17:48Jeff Borowiec: Really putting me on the spot here.
- 17:49Jeff Borowiec: .
- 17:49Bernie Fette: Yeah, I am.
- 17:49Jeff Borowiec: You know, I still think we're quite a few years away from this, replacing it.
- 17:54Jeff Borowiec: And I'll tell you, I think that where I'm not sold yet, on the cost, personally.
- 17:58Jeff Borowiec: I just, you know, the cost may still be a little bit prohibitive.
- 18:02Bernie Fette: Yeah.
- 18:02Jeff Borowiec: My hope is that it's somewhat improved to the point where it's not just the rich and famous taking them.
- 18:10Jeff Borowiec: And I think for it to be a viable service longer term to really have those impacts on congestion and everything, that price point does have to come down.
- 18:17Jeff Borowiec: But for me, I'd like to know a little bit more about that because all of this is being privately developed.
- 18:22Jeff Borowiec: We don't always know a lot of the costs or how they could escalate in the out years.
- 18:26Jeff Borowiec: So I think it's gonna be quite a years before it really takes off, so to speak.
- 18:32Jeff Borowiec: And I don't know that it'll ever replace the automobile.
- 18:35Jeff Borowiec: I'm not sure I see that.
- 18:37Jeff Borowiec: But as far as making an impact on it, I hope that 10 years from now we can look back and say, yeah, we got the price point down and we got enough people moving this way to help.
- 18:46Bernie Fette: Right.
- 18:46Bernie Fette: Perhaps instead of asking you that question in comparing it to an Uber or Lyft ride, maybe what I should have done was ask you in terms of comparing it to a limousine.
- 18:56Jeff Borowiec: Well, I think that those services will always be there.
- 19:01Jeff Borowiec: Yeah, I really do hope that it can evolve beyond that high-end market and that it can become accessible.
- 19:06Jeff Borowiec: And I know that's the objective of many in this industry, to make that happen.
- 19:10Jeff Borowiec: 'Cause I think they know that they're gonna rely on that being the case in order for them to survive.
- 19:15Bernie Fette: And when we get closer to that point, I'll hope you come back and tell us more about it.
- 19:18Jeff Borowiec: Yeah, absolutely.
- 19:20Jeff Borowiec: I'd love to.
- 19:21Bernie Fette: What keeps you motivated to show up to work every day?
- 19:27Jeff Borowiec: Well, there's a couple things that immediately come to mind.
- 19:30Jeff Borowiec: I, the first thing that sounds cliche, but the folks that I work with are just top-notch in my program and in TTI.
- 19:37Jeff Borowiec: But I always try to focus most of my work in aviation and in aviation, there's always something new going on.
- 19:45Jeff Borowiec: Everything is different.
- 19:46Jeff Borowiec: Every airport is different and so it never gets old.
- 19:50Jeff Borowiec: So I'd say that people and the interesting topics are probably what keep me going.
- 19:55Bernie Fette: Jeff Borowiec, senior research scientist at TTI.
- 19:59Bernie Fette: Coming to work every day and channeling George Jetson.
- 20:04Bernie Fette: Thanks for a very fascinating conversation, Jeff.
- 20:07Jeff Borowiec: Thanks, Bernie.
- 20:08Jeff Borowiec: Appreciate it.
- 20:11Bernie Fette: As urban streets and highways become ever more congested, the search for innovative mobility solutions will continue.
- 20:18Bernie Fette: And before too long, what we see could include vehicles that literally rise above that gridlock.
- 20:26Bernie Fette: Questions regarding infrastructure needs, safety considerations, and fuel sustainability will drive much of the discussion that determines how that lofty vision might unfold.
- 20:38Bernie Fette: Thanks for listening.
- 20:40Bernie Fette: Please join us again next time, when we visit with Ben Ettelman, and take a close look at the complex relationship between transportation and human health.
- 20:52Bernie Fette: Thinking Transportation is a production of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, a member of the Texas A&M University System.
- 21:00Bernie Fette: The show is edited and produced by Chris Pourteau.
- 21:04Bernie Fette: I'm your writer a nd host, Bernie Fette.
- 21:07Bernie Fette: Thanks a gain for listening.
- 21:08Bernie Fette: We'll see you next time.