Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/8/26: Trump Blinks On Iran Threat, Iran Ready For War To Resume, Hegseth Copes

Transcript

4/8/26: Trump Blinks On Iran Threat, Iran Ready For War To Resume, Hegseth Copes · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: the future of this show.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: dot com.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: All right, good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points.
• 0:36
  Speaker 4: All civilizations that were alive yesterday are alive today.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: It means it's a good day.
• 0:42
  Speaker 5: It's a great day for world peace, the great day.
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: For wars, told us according to the President Donald Trump.
• 0:47
  Speaker 5: Yes, the war is over or is it might be
• 0:51
  Speaker 5: the theme of today's over show over ish, right, That's probably
• 0:54
  Speaker 5: the best way to put it at this point. So
• 0:56
  Speaker 5: all kinds of breaking news overnight, the president was posted
• 1:00
  Speaker 5: on truth Social So we have response to the end
• 1:04
  Speaker 5: of the war that was declared last night, but continuing
• 1:07
  Speaker 5: to get details on what that actually means. What does
• 1:10
  Speaker 5: that mean for the straight of hor moves. Oil prices
• 1:12
  Speaker 5: have already dipped, but should they how far should they
• 1:15
  Speaker 5: actually fall? Ryan a lot to get into from the President.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: The Pentagon has had a press conference early this morning.
• 1:22
  Speaker 5: We're going to bring you comments from that and also
• 1:25
  Speaker 5: of course from the Iranian side, from the Israelis what's
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: actually on the table right now, There's so much to
• 1:31
  Speaker 5: go over just from the last twelve hours.
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: We have it all, yes, and we'll be joined in
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: a moment by my dropside colleague Jeremy Scahill to break
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: down how the Iranians are feeling about this two week
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: cease fire leading into negotiations toward a permanent end to
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: the war. New York Times out with a huge new
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: kind of TikTok about the way that net Yahoo on
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: February eleventh or twelfth went to the actually into the
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: situation room and with Masad and other military officials on
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: screen behind him, made the hard sell, as they describe it,
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: for the Iran War, and by the end of it
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: the next day, President Trump has said, I think we
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: should do it. Well, we'll unpack that, and also reactions
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: from Democrats on Capitol Hill. We'll have some flowers for
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: some of them.
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: Some little criticism for some others.
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: Not little.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: We got some.
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: We got Republicans Alex Jones, Marjorie Taylor Green and others
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: just losing their mind about Trump having lost.
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: His mind calling for the twenty fifth amendments.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: Some stronger reactions from some of them than some Democrats
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: in fact.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: And we got Professor Pape.
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: That's right. So big, big show, big show to get
• 2:49
  Speaker 5: to the news is happening actually while we're recording this today.
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: So we are gonna, oh.
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: Ben Shapiro, we're gonna have a little We're gonna have
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: a little.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: Bit of fun.
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: Well, it's it's fun, but it's also related to you
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: mentioned we have Jeremy on the show, but it's related
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: to the work that you guys are doing over at
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: drop site. Basically, if people are people are calling the
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: twenty fifth amendment Trump, people are calling to uh fo Yeah,
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: I'm just going to ask what you think the right
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: amendment is for that they want them going lock them up.
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: All right, let's get into the show because, as we
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: keep mentioning, there's so much to go through as a reminder,
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: Breaking Points dot com is where you can go to
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: get a premium subscription help us keep doing this independent
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: journalism here. We're so grateful to all of you. If
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: you can't subscribe, no problem, go ahead subscribe on YouTube
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: that's of course free, or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: Let's now go into the big news a one. Let's
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: put this up on the screen. A true social post
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: from Donald Trump where he said last night with how
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: how long to go until the deadline? Ryan? We were
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: right up on that, Ah, yeah, right about right rout there,
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: he said, based on conversations with Prime Minister Shabash shaar Reef.
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: He goes on and says Pakistan, wherein they had requested
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: that I hold off the destructive four being sent tonight
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: to Iran and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran,
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: agreed to the complete, immediate and safe opening of the
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: straight up hor moves. I agreed to suspend the bombing
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: He said. This will be a double sided ceasefire. The
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: reason for doing so is that we have already met
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: and exceeded all military objectives and are very far along
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: with a definitive agreement concerning long term peace with Iran
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: and peace in the Middle East. Now here's a really
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: important part, and we're going to get Ryan's explanation of
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: what it means. What we see, We received a ten
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: point proposal from Iran and believe it is a workable
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: basis on which to nego negotiate. Almost all of the
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: various points of past contention have been agreed to between
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: the US and Iran, but a two week period will
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: allow the agreement to be finalized and consummated. Ryan, you
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: posted a TikTok a couple of hours before Trump posted
• 4:56
  Speaker 5: that truth social Now you said you think he watches
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: you on TikTok.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: I don't he watched this show, because I made a
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: version of that point here too.
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: Yes, but basically what you were saying is that he
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: has a kind of public relations style off ramp on
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: the table, and this was as of yesterday. He kind
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: of took that No.
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So basically, the Iranians have for weeks now been
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: put forward and as we'll talk to Jeremy later about this,
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: since the early days of the war, put forward conditions
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: under which they would enter into negotiations to for a
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: permanent end to the war. The Ranians have been saying
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: that for a very long time, but as is the
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: want of the American media, we don't.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: Talk about that.
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: You have to go to dropsiders or hear to hear
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: about that, because they're just crazy mullus who are a
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: death cult, who just want to do like it's totally
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: irrational why they're even what are they even upset about.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: And so.
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: Looking into what kind of an off they're making to
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: end the war implies some rationality to your adversary, and
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: you just can't You're not allowed to do that in
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: American media. And so this peace proposal from the Iranians
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: has been on the table for a long time.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: It's it's variously.
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: Evolved into what people now call a ten point you know,
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: within the last few days we're starting to call a
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: ten point plan. So the point I made was because
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: the media has paid no attention to this, what Trump
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: could do is say I have gotten a ten point
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: proposal from the Iranians.
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: They're on bended.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: Knee, my bullying, you know, beat this out of them,
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: and we will now have world peace.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: And that's exactly what he did.
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: He said, He said, I got a ten point plan,
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: and the Israelis, of course, are now freaking out because
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: it's like, wait a minute, the ten point Like this,
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: the Iranians are setting the terms for a permanent end
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: to the war in which they will remain basically in
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: control of the Strait of Hormuz and in a better
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: position than they were in before Israel attack them. Of course,
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: you know many people died, that they attacked a lot
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: of their civilian infrastructure, their ballistic missile stockpiles way down.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: All of that is true, but strategically you have to
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: say they're in a much stronger position.
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: We have more on that. Let's put this next truth
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: Social up on the screen. This is twelve oh one
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: am from Donald Trump. He says, it's a big day
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: for world peace. Aron wants it to happen. They've had enough. Likewise,
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: so has everyone else. And then here's the here's the
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: bos part. So he says the United States of America
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: will be helping with the traffic build up in the
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: Strait of Hormuz. So just zeroing in on that line,
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: because last night, after Trump posts this truth Social ahead
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: of the eight pm deadline, everyone is wondering, what does
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: this actually mean what in this two week period has
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: been agreed to going forward, and that line itself, the
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: US will be helping with the traffic build up in
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: the Strait of Hormoz. That could mean anything or absolutely nothing, Brian.
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: And then he adds we'll be loading up all We'll
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: be loading up all sorts of supplies just hanging around,
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: which comes after he says Iran can build, start reconstruction.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: But so is he talking about supplies reconstruction as he's saying, No,
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: We're going to use this time to resupply our armaments
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: and our AMMO, and then we're going to launch again.
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: Well, and this is let's put the next true social up.
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: There will be no enrichment us this morning, right, this
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: is no this one is from uh oh, yeah, it
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: is from this morning. He says. The US will work
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: what will be a very productive regime change. There will
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: be no enrichment of uranium, and the US will working
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: with Iran dig up and remove all of the deeply
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: buried nuclear quote dust. It is now and has been
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: under very exacting satellite surveillance. Nothing has been touched from
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: the date of attack. We are and will be taking
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: tariff and sanctions relief with Iran. So Ryan, does Iran
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: then end this war still in control of the Strait
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: of Hormuz with sanctions relief? Is that a possibility right now?
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: Absolutely is a possibility.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: In fact, it's a likelihood, because that's what happens when
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: you are in a military conflict. And I wouldn't say
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: they won in the sense that they didn't like conquer
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: other territory, but they showed that they're still able to
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: project force against the golf aully, against the America's golf
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: allies and Israel despite getting completely pounded. And so if
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: they can continue to block the straight with just a
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: few minds and a twenty thousand dollars drone from anywhere
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: in the in the country, then you have to enter
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: into negotiation. So yeah, it looks it looks like, you know,
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: if this moves forward, they're they're emerging from in a
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: position of you know, significant strength and a sign of
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: how badly the US won.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Is the one that wanted this agreement.
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: If this is something fun you can do at home.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: So Shabaz Sharif is the Pakistani Prime Minister. His Twitter
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: account is CM Shabaz sch e h b a Z.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: So go back and find his from yesterday afternoon. He
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: posted basically a proposal for a two week ceasefire. So
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: the thing that became the thing that Trump accepted. Then
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: Trump said, and the New York Times even reports Trump
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: responded to a Pakistani proposal of a two week ceasefire?
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: Is it a Pakistani proposal?
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: If you look into the edit history of the tweet.
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: Yes, you noticed this, it says it says.
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: Draft post for Pakistan's PM. So Shabaz Sharif copied the
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: entire thing he was handed and just pasted it on
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: a Twitter and then hit post. And then somebody was like,
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: hey boss, you left in the message at the top.
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: Now think about this. Would Shabaz Sharif's own staff refer
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: to him as Pakistan's Prime Minister? Like do Trump's staff
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: refer to him as the American president? Or they just
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: call him mister president? Like in Pakistan he's the prime minister.
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: He's not Pakistan's PM. Who is he Pakistan's PM? Two US? Right,
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: so we send him, so Trump send him like post
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: this on Twitter. I want you to post that you're
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: asking for two weeks and then Trump responds, I'm taking it,
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: and so you don't have to trust me. Just go
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: to his Twitter feed. You can just search and edit history.
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: It's a very funny feature. It's sitting right there.
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: Well, I want to get your take ond Iranian response,
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: so we can put the next element up on the screen.
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: This is a Rachi's statement on behalf of the Supreme
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: National Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which said
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: first offered appreciation to Pakistan, said in response to the
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: brotherly request of Pm Sharif in his tweet, and considering
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: the quest by the US for negotiations based on its
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: fifteen point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: acceptance of the general framework of Iran's ten point proposal,
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: taking ownership of it there as a basis for negotiations,
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: I hereby declare, on behalf of Iran Supreme National Security Council,
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: if attacks against Iran are halted, our powerful armed forces
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: will cease their defensive operations for a period of two
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: weeks save passage through the straight of horror moves will
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: be possible via coordination with Iran's armed forces and with
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: due consideration of technical limitations, so they are in control
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: of the straight up Hooe.
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: Moves yes, and the concession that he's making in there
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: is a reference to the fifteen point plan that Trump
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: had put forward Tony, as you notice, he's saying ten
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: point plan is the one.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: It's the basis for negotiations, and.
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: Can you help us understand how these different plans emerged
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: or the timeline. Basically, because you guys at drop site
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: had this ten point, you were aware of the ten point,
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: you were reporting on the ten point, and now you're
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: getting referenced all over the quote unquote mainstream press because
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: you guys were on this. What when did that come out?
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: And it's still and we'll talk to We'll talk to
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: Jerry about this a little bit more. The precise ten
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: points are still not out. So last week Jerry and
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: I reported a story over at drop Site that was
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: the first time where Iranian officials confirmed, basically officially that
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: they had in fact sent a proposal back to the
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: United States, because up until then it was mostly a
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: one way witcough kind of texting arak she texting others
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: like come on, come on, come on. So what had
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: been happening over the previous weeks is that Egypt, Turkey,
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: and Pakistan and Oman were all involved as either mediators
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: or intermediaries, depending on how you want to characterize it.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: And when you get into the diplomacy, like they care
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: because people be like they're not mediators, because we're not
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: negotiating the intermediaries.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: It's like stop, come on, you're trying to get to
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: a deal here.
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: So the Iranians would give a handful of conditions that
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: they similar conditions that they'd started giving it the beginn
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: in the war to these intermediaries of some to Turkey,
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: some to Egypt, some to omnd Uh, some to Pakistan,
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: and effectively they then got compiled together in what became
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: known and then internally and secretly for a while as
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: this like ten point plan, which we revealed that thing
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: six of the points we you know week last week,
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: uh and you can go you know, find.
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: That over drop site.
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: But the basic things that we understand that they have
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: to basically stop attacking Iran, stop attacking Lebanon, lift sanctions,
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: back off our nuclear program.
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: But we will get we will we will promise that
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: we will not.
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: Do a nuclear bomb, and we'll agree to different conditions
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: that that sort of thing, and so that so that's
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: the that's the deal. It then started becoming called a
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: ten point plan over the weekend slash Monday, uh and
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: then and then Trump.
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: Was like, okay, ten point plan. But but the point
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: is interesting.
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: It's been out there and Witkoff and his team have
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: been aware of versions of it for a very long time,
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: and Iran has been very consistent. Jeremy, I think reported
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: Monday again when they rejected this forty eight hour Trump
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: was like, give me, give us a forty eight hour pause,
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: and Ron said, no, you're just gonna rearm hit us again.
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: We want a permanent end to the war, and here
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: are the conditions.
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: So what changed?
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: What changed, I think is Trump made a threat that
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: he couldn't follow through on an end civilization.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: You not to do that.
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: But why did Iran go from the forty eight hour
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: saying no, we're not going to stop in forty eight hours,
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: it will stop for two.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: Well ask Jeremy about this too, But because Trump said
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: I accept the ten points, yep, that's it as the
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: framework for negotiations going forward.
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: And Iran's like, well, okay, I.
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: Don't want to laugh, but it's for the administration not
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: trying to claim this is a great day for like
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: quote world peace, and also that it wasn't. I don't
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: want to use the phrase taco either, because it's so
• 16:08
  Speaker 5: much more serious than a taco ridiculous sentence. Never thought
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: it would come out of my mouth, but truly absurd
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: to frame this as a win for the Trump administration.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: Although we've known from the very beginning that.
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: You declare victory in our nomenclature means to lose exactly,
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: so like it declared victory in Vietnam, and you know,
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: we spiked our helicopters in celebration, like, so how.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: We do it?
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: I loved when the mission was accomplished. Yes, that was Yeah, it's.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: Just a claire vert victory immediately.
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: Yes, it helps if you have a banner. Let's go
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: to a three here. This is what's happening elsewhere in
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: terms of how quote fragile this ceasefire is. That's what JD.
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: Vance used to describe it. He's in Europe, so we
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: had a little bit of time on the rest of
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: the world to make that declaration earlier this morning. Now,
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: despite the announcement of a ceasefire, the Israeli air force
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: continues to carry out strikes in Iran. I mean, well,
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: Fabian reports Iran meanwhile, it has several has fired several
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel since the ceasefire was
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: reportedly supposed to take effect.
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: What do you make of that, Ryan, Yes, Israel keeps
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: hitting them. Israel has also said, yeah, it won't cease fire.
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: In Lebanon, they celebrated the ceasefire. The first attack, it
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: seems like after the ceasefire and Lebanon was an attack
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: on an ambulance. What Israel has done in southern Lebanon
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: to medics the last several weeks is one of the
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: more horrifying war crimes that they've carried out over the
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: last several years. And that continued, and so there's certainly
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: a lot of concern that these tit for tat strikes,
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: combined with Israel's refusal to recognize that the ceasefire applies
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: to Lebanon, even though hesbela has said, Okay, we agree
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: to the ceasefire.
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: So Hesbel has agreed, Ron has agreed. Trump says.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: That they this is the framework, and the framework does
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: include that.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: We've reported.
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: We reported that last week the framework includes an end
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: to the war on Lebanon, but Israel is in the
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: middle of an invasion, like they're not just bombing, like
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: they have ground troops in there, and they have said
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: they're trying to take you know, and hold significant portions
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: of Lebanon up to the Latani River.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: And which is probably gas related.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: Actually, like if you draw if you draw a line
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: west from further up into Lebanon, you get much more
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: of the gas field in the Mediterranean. So it's not
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: just land, it's also natural gas. But that is a
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: huge risk that that it's going to fall apart. I
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: think Trump is going to have to step in.
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, So just on that point, worth noting that Lebanese
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: authorities say fourteen hundred, well actually almost fifteen hundred people
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: have been killed in Israeli strikes since March second, and
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: that includes at least one hundred and twenty four children.
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: The HRNA group said three five hundred and forty people
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: have been killed since the war erupted in Iran, and
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: about sixteen hundred of those were civilians, including at least
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: two hundred and forty four children. Death holes around the
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: Middle East, obviously in some of the Gulf States. So
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: not it makes no sense to talk about any of
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: this without mentioning there have been a lot of death
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: just in the last I mean, we have in the
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: United States double digit deaths among American service members. So
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: what Trump is claiming right now as a win for
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: the United States is came at a high cost. Came
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: at a high cost.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: Ran Yes, yeah, what did what did we get out
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: of this?
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: And let's to the point of what do we get
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: out of this? Go to the next element. Now it
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: looks like quote the two weeks seafire plan includes allowing
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: both Iran and Ahman to charge fees on chips transitting
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: through this Strait of horm Moves.
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: Although interesting, the Omani Foreign minister this morning, Omani Minister
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: of Transport, we have signed all agreements related to maritime
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: transport stipulating that no fees will be imposed for passage
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: to the Strait of hor Moves.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: So that's from Aman.
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: So that would be kind of interesting if Iran's like, yeah,
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: we and Oman are gonna charge a fee and Amn's
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: like now never mind, It's like it actually would really
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: reflect which countries are sovereign and which aren't.
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: We'll see what happens. But just that the fact that
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: that's even being reported right now is Yeah, at what cost?
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: At what cost?
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: Now we put the next element up on the screen.
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: This Joe Wisenthal post from yesterday dated Brent just hit
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: its highest level in history. That was US of yesterday afternoon.
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: CNBC after the market opened this morning has said oil
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: price is plunged back below ninety five dollars following the announcement.
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: Brent crude features are down more than thirteen percent this morning. Well,
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: US West Texas intermediate futures are more than sixteen percent lower.
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: So that's where we are with oil prices. Let's go
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: now to the next element. This is what we know
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: about the ten point conditions Ryan, complete cessation of any
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: aggression against Iran.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: Theser take these with a grain of salt.
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: That's what I was getting. Go ahead, So complete cessation
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: of any aggression against Iran and allied resistance groups. Yeah, check,
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: there you go. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region.
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: Well, we don't know, we don't know that might be
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: in there, but we'll talk to Jeremy about this.
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: We don't think so.
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: Okay, limited daily passage of ships through the strait for
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: two weeks. Cancelation of all primary sanctions, secondary sanctions, and
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: UN sanctions. Yeah, if they get that, it got to Yeah,
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: it sounds like they did compensation for Iran's damages through
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: the creation of an investment and financial fund.
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: That'll be through the that will get They'll say, no,
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: you don't have to do that, but we're going to
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: charge for the ships.
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, Iran's commitment to not building nuclear weapons.
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: Check acceptance by the United States of Iran's right to
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: enrichment and negotiation on the level of enrichment.
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: That is my understanding of the kind of thing the
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: Iranians were putting in this.
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: Now the US is saying that they're going to push
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: back on that.
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: Negotiate that Iran's agreement to negotiate bilateral and multilateral peace
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: treaties with regional countries and its own interests.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: No, if that's in there would make sense. How can
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: we be against that?
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's extension of non aggression to all resistance groups.
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: Yes, it's saying like cease fire against are Iraqi folks,
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: against Hesbelah, et cetera.
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: Termination of all resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: and the UN Security Council and approval of all commitments
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: in an official UN resolution.
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: We have heard that that they want some guarantees, whether
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: it's the UN or some other idea, and I don't
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: think the board of Piece counts. Okay, some promises that
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: you're going to actually live up to what you're saying,
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: but really in the end, they don't really trust any promises.
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: Like it's really the threat of their own ability to
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: defend themselves that they think is going to lock this
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: thing in place.
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: Okay, Now we have Lindsey Graham's reaction posted on x
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: last night as everyone was kind of trying to understand
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: what was going on this around seven twenty six pm.
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: Like everyone, he said, I hope we can end the
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: reign of terror of the Iranian regime through diplomacy. We
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: must remember the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: after the start of the war, deshoying freedom of navigation
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: going forward as imperative. Iran is not rewarded for this
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: hostile act against the world. As for the ten point
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: proposal the end the war, I look forward to reviewing
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: it at the appropriate time and its submission to Congress
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: for a vote like we did with the Obama JCPOA.
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: I want to reaffirm that from my point of view,
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: every ounce of the approximately nine hundred pounds of highly
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: enriched uranium has to be controlled by the US and
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: removed from Iran to prevent them in the future from
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: having a dirty bomb or returning to the Richmond enrichment
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: business livying model. For lack of a better phrase that
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: Lindsay Graham said. Ryan Trump said, also, we read this
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: post a tis of minutes ago about the nuclear dust.
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: However he phrased it, it sounds like he's taking that
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: a bit from Lindsay Graham himself, but that he's trying
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: to give scraps to the Lindsay Grahams who are furious,
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: I'm sure internally furious with all this. Graham posted shortly
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: after that, just a couple of hours after that, he said,
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: as I sayd before, I preferred diplomacy if it leads
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: to the right outcome regarding the Iranian terrorist regime. At
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: this early stage, I am extremely cautious regarding what is
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: fact versus fiction or misrepresentation.
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: So Lindsey Graham preferring the plomacy incredible fact versus fiction.
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: I think we're going with fiction on that one.
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: Just one, let's just observe that Lindsey Graham, confronted with
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: the prospect of peace, demands, congressional.
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: Involvement, war, have at it, man, whatever.
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: Now I covered Obama's JCPOA, that's the Iran nuclear deal,
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: and he's being a little bit misleading when he describes
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: how it went to Congress. It was not submitted to
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: Congress for approval. It was submitted for a vote of disapproval.
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: And that that's key because to block something in the
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: Senate you only need forty one votes, and JCPOA got
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: forty two votes, and that's why it was able to
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: go through. And it did not get enough votes in
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: the House to block it either. And so okay, you
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: can go ahead put this cease fire deal before the Senate,
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: in the House if you want, but understand that it
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: will be under the same terms vote of disapproval, which
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: means you only need forty one senators. And if you
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: get ran Paul and forty Democrats, there are forty seven
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: of them, although if you want to count Fetterman forty
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: six of them, forty.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: Six plus Rampaul, you should be good. And maybe a
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: couple other Republicans who would support a peace deal at
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: this point.
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: So go ahead, send it to Congress if you want,
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: but let's understand it's going under the same terms.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: That's the one before.
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: Let's put the Israeli response up on the screen as well.
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: This is the next element based on political Achelon directives.
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: The Defense Army has ceased fire in the battle with
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: Iran and remains in a high state of defensive alert,
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: ready to respond to any breach. In Lebanon. The Defense
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: Army continues combat and ground operations against the terrorist has Belah.
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: What I like is how they say they have ceased
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: fire in the Battle of Iran, and then you scroll
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: down and they say they keep they're attacking Iran.
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: This is from the idea.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, same post.
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: The Defense Army has ceased fire in the Battle of
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: Iran and remains in a high state of defense realary
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: responder just central production infrastructure belonging to the Iranian regime
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: was targeted in several areas inside Iran.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: Wait a minute, what I thought you sing ceazed fire.
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: As part of these air strikes, Air Force fighter jets
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: attacked dozens of launch sites, which led to the thwarting
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: of a broader missile barrage that was directed toward the
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: state of Israel. So this reminds us, right, it reminds
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: everybody of the end of the Twelve Day War where
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: Trump announced to cease fire, yes, and then yaw who
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: launched another set of sorties to bomb Iran, and Trump
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: had to tweet out or truth out, turn the planes around. Right,
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: He's going to have to do that again because clearly
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: saying that the war is over and we're seizing fire
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: is not getting through to Israel.
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: Well, it's kind of interesting there how they're distinguishing between
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: Iran and has Baalah or attempting to distinguish between the iron.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: And I just love this line.
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: In addition, central production infrastructure belonging to the Iranian regime
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: was targeted in several areas inside Iran. In the same
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: statement where they say they've stopped bombing, yeah, well they
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: just it was just targeted with bombs, not bombed.
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: What what do you guys, you think we're all idiots?
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: Well, and again their entire argument about the fight against
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: HESBLO is predicated on the idea this proxyum wrong.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: M h, that's right too.
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: Yeah, right, Well, let's not bring your colleague Jeremy sky
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: Hill from drop Site News into the conversation. Both of
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: you have been reporting on this very closely. Jeremy's negotiations
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: reporting has been absolutely critical to understanding what's going on. Yeah,
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: so we're very lucky to have him here with us today.
• 28:32
  Speaker 5: Let's bring him in.
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: To talk through how we got here and where we're going.
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: Joined by my Dropsite colleague, Jeremy Skayhill. Jeremy, thanks for
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: taking some time this morning.
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: Really appreciate it. Thank you.
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: All Right, So this this ten point plan, well, where
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: did this come from? And what is your sense of
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: how we got from the brink of armageddon to Trump
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: saying I've gotten this ten point plan world p is
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: what he is now saying is upon us.
• 29:03
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think we need to set aside
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: any of the representations that Trump is making publicly right now.
• 29:10
  Speaker 6: I mean the idea that he mentioned the Iranian ten
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: point Plan and said that it was a solid basis,
• 29:18
  Speaker 6: in other words, framework for the beginning of real negotiations
• 29:23
  Speaker 6: was what allowed the Iranians to claim that Trump had
• 29:26
  Speaker 6: effectively capitulated to their demands. It's important to emphasize that
• 29:32
  Speaker 6: there's been a lot of reporting and claims about what
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: is in this ten point plan, and while it's true
• 29:36
  Speaker 6: that Iran has revealed some of it to US and
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: other news organizations, they have not publicly released the ten
• 29:44
  Speaker 6: point plan. What we know is contained in it because
• 29:46
  Speaker 6: the Iranians have confirmed this to US and others, is
• 29:50
  Speaker 6: that they want any agreement to be effectively a non
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: aggression pact where the United States is publicly agreeing, and
• 29:57
  Speaker 6: they want a UN Security Council resolution to this effect
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: that this era of periodic war against Iran by the
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: United States and Israel is over. They want the agreement
• 30:07
  Speaker 6: to apply to what they call all fronts of resistance,
• 30:09
  Speaker 6: meaning Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, as well as Iraq. There's also
• 30:14
  Speaker 6: some question of whether it would apply to anser A Lah,
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: also known as the Huthis in Yemen. The Iranians want
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: a lifting of all sanctions, They want compensation for the
• 30:24
  Speaker 6: damage that has been done by the US and Israeli
• 30:27
  Speaker 6: bombing campaigns, and, perhaps most significant to the US discourse
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: and Trump's obsessive focus on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran
• 30:35
  Speaker 6: is stating that they are going to maintain the control
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: that they had over the Strait of Hormuz prior to
• 30:41
  Speaker 6: the start of this war. There's other reports that it
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: includes the US withdrawing all military bases in US personnel
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: from the Middle East. I haven't gotten any confirmation that
• 30:52
  Speaker 6: that's actually in the ten point plan. Also, the Iranians
• 30:55
  Speaker 6: have told me that they have made some representations on
• 30:58
  Speaker 6: the issue of nuclear enrichment, but I would be cautious
• 31:03
  Speaker 6: in co signing the legitimacy of any of the details
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: that are being leaked in the media right now. What
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: I'm told by Iranians is that this is an incredibly
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: sensitive issue, that it is linked to sanctions relief and
• 31:15
  Speaker 6: the Non Aggression Pact, and that Iran is not going
• 31:17
  Speaker 6: to just be coming out and publicly stating its position.
• 31:20
  Speaker 6: So in short, what I would say is that Iran
• 31:25
  Speaker 6: was rejecting this temporary ceasefire proposal that Trump had been
• 31:31
  Speaker 6: floating with a very thin veneer, that it was the
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: pakistanis that came up with this idea. Trump's been desperate
• 31:36
  Speaker 6: for an off ramp. The Iranians had prior to yesterday,
• 31:39
  Speaker 6: and I think it remains their belief or their most
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: likely scenario was that Trump just wants a pause and
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: that eventually he and Israel intend to resume bombing Iran,
• 31:50
  Speaker 6: as they've done twice in the past year when they
• 31:52
  Speaker 6: claimed to be negotiating. But from the Iranian perspective, Iran,
• 31:56
  Speaker 6: when Trump then said I'm going to publicly announce and
• 32:00
  Speaker 6: reference this ten point plan, that was sort of the
• 32:02
  Speaker 6: trigger for the Iranian political and military echelons to say,
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: we're not declaring that the war is over. But if
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: the US publicly states that that's the basis for negotiations,
• 32:13
  Speaker 6: and the US states that it is going to cease
• 32:15
  Speaker 6: its fire against Iran, that we will, in the words
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: of Abbasarachi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, suspend our defensive operations.
• 32:24
  Speaker 6: But Iran is saying that it has its trigger remaining
• 32:27
  Speaker 6: on the finger, its finger remaining on the trigger. There's
• 32:30
  Speaker 6: a question of whether the Israelis are actually going to
• 32:33
  Speaker 6: continue their massive bombing and ground operations in Lebanon. Iran
• 32:37
  Speaker 6: has said that that could throw the entire deal into jeopardy,
• 32:41
  Speaker 6: and so you know, it's a very fragile situation. But
• 32:44
  Speaker 6: the Iranians, of course, are declaring a victory. Trump is
• 32:46
  Speaker 6: declaring a victory. Trump's track record is that he just
• 32:50
  Speaker 6: systematically lies about being in negotiations with Iran. The Iranians
• 32:54
  Speaker 6: recognized they're taking a gamble, which is why they're limiting
• 32:57
  Speaker 6: it the scope of this and saying that they remain
• 32:59
  Speaker 6: ready to conte you what they call their defensive operations.
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: Now, how critical is the straight of Horn moves. We
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: still don't actually know what's going to happen really with
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: the straight of Horror moves. How critical is a point
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: of leverage is that right now to the Iranians.
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: I think that what you know, perhaps the top level
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: headline in terms of the geopolitical realities of this is
• 33:18
  Speaker 6: that Iran put on full display in front of the
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: world how much economic damage and global panic it can
• 33:24
  Speaker 6: cause by simply they never closed formally the Straight of
• 33:28
  Speaker 6: Horn moves. They just said that it's only open to
• 33:30
  Speaker 6: ships that coordinate with the Iranian state. But you know,
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: Iran's most potent weapon for certain in this war was
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: twofold one was that they repeatedly gave lie to Trump
• 33:42
  Speaker 6: and Netanyahu's proclamations that the missile program had been you know, obliterated,
• 33:46
  Speaker 6: that their launchers had been obliterated, that their drone program
• 33:49
  Speaker 6: had been obliterated, Iran continued to strike, even when Pete
• 33:52
  Speaker 6: Hegseth would say, basically, they're finished and they've been bombed
• 33:55
  Speaker 6: back to the Stone ages in terms of their military.
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: Consueremy can I just add right there, hesa literally within
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: the last couple of minutes. It's just he's giving a
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: briefing right now, and he said, quote Iran begged for
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: the ceasefire, and we all know it.
• 34:08
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, you know this is you know, obviously
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: none of us are sitting there behind the scenes, but
• 34:13
  Speaker 6: I think it's pretty uh, you know, it's pretty clear
• 34:16
  Speaker 6: that it was Trump and his administration that were desperate
• 34:20
  Speaker 6: for an agreement. You know, we've talked about this on
• 34:23
  Speaker 6: the show before. It was Steve Whitkoff who was obsessively
• 34:26
  Speaker 6: texting the Iranian foreign minister and others. The Iranians said
• 34:30
  Speaker 6: at the beginning that they weren't going to go for
• 34:32
  Speaker 6: some kind of a short term deal, that they first
• 34:34
  Speaker 6: needed to ensure that they had represented that they're able
• 34:38
  Speaker 6: to strike back ferociously. I really think that that is
• 34:42
  Speaker 6: pure propaganda. I think that it was Trump desperate for
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: either a pause or an off ramp. The Israelis are
• 34:49
  Speaker 6: also in a in a pretty serious situation in terms
• 34:53
  Speaker 6: of their ability to stop Iran's ballistic missiles. Trump is
• 34:58
  Speaker 6: in big trouble politically, US economy and the global economy
• 35:01
  Speaker 6: is in big trouble. The Gulf States, the gccy, they
• 35:05
  Speaker 6: have never in their histories been in a greater state
• 35:08
  Speaker 6: of panic over the extent of damage that Iran has
• 35:11
  Speaker 6: been able to cause just by primarily hitting American military bases.
• 35:15
  Speaker 6: And I think at the end of the day, will
• 35:17
  Speaker 6: hear eventually that those countries, the GCC countries, these Arab
• 35:22
  Speaker 6: countries were absolutely irate at this and begging Trump because
• 35:26
  Speaker 6: they felt like he just left them to be completely
• 35:29
  Speaker 6: shellacked by Iran, and they had been given assurances that
• 35:32
  Speaker 6: none of this was going to happen, despite the fact
• 35:34
  Speaker 6: that the Iranian said it was going to. But to
• 35:36
  Speaker 6: directly answer your question, Emily on the Strait of Hormuz,
• 35:39
  Speaker 6: what Abbasarachi said last night was that Iran is going
• 35:43
  Speaker 6: to maintain control of it over these two weeks and
• 35:46
  Speaker 6: in perpetuity, and that any movement through this strait is
• 35:50
  Speaker 6: going to have to be coordinated with the Iranian military.
• 35:53
  Speaker 6: So you know, I don't I don't think that that
• 35:56
  Speaker 6: what Trump is announcing and is sort of projecting is
• 36:00
  Speaker 6: what his base seems to think it is. Trump is
• 36:02
  Speaker 6: not in control of the Strait of horror movez, and
• 36:04
  Speaker 6: that's probably the most potent weapon that Iran has deployed
• 36:07
  Speaker 6: in this was showing that they could actually wreak absolute
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: global economic havoc.
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: It feels like the reformist camp in Iran, which has
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: been arguing, you know, for decades, for engagement with the
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: United States, for diplomacy, We're going to work through these sanctions,
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: it's nuclear deal and so on and so forth, it
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: seems like they've been pretty thoroughly repudiated internally by the
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: way this has gone, because you've had the hardliners have
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: been saying, no, you know, the only thing in the
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: United States and Israel understand is force and raw power.
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: And now forty days of demonstrating force and raw power
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: has gotten them more than the kind of reformists and
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: the diplomats have been able to get for decades. But
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: I'm wondering how they transition then to the period of
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: diplomacy or are they there yet or do they believe
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: are they still an apostre that no, this is actually
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: probably another thing by the United States. So if it's
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: kind of reconfigured Iranian politics, does that shape how they
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: respond to these negotiations differently than they would have responded
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: all times previously.
• 37:11
  Speaker 6: I mean, I understand, and there isn't a lot of
• 37:13
  Speaker 6: reporting on this yet, but I suspect that it's going
• 37:15
  Speaker 6: to become a more prominent part of the story. My
• 37:18
  Speaker 6: understanding is that China actually quietly played a quite significant role,
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: particularly in its dealings with the Iranians. I had been
• 37:26
  Speaker 6: told many weeks ago that China had been a quiet
• 37:30
  Speaker 6: but extremely active player in this, and so I would
• 37:33
  Speaker 6: I would look for some stories to start emerging about
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: the role that China played in this deal.
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: But I think I think you're right to an extent.
• 37:41
  Speaker 6: You know, when an Iranian official I spoke to last
• 37:43
  Speaker 6: night said that that they don't take any of Trump's
• 37:47
  Speaker 6: actual words at face value, and that their working assumption
• 37:52
  Speaker 6: is that this is some kind of a ploy or
• 37:54
  Speaker 6: a trick, but that they calculate that because Trump has
• 37:58
  Speaker 6: come out and said that he accepts ten point planned
• 38:01
  Speaker 6: from Iran as a basis, a reasonable basis for discussions,
• 38:05
  Speaker 6: that because of their relationships with China, with Pakistan, with
• 38:09
  Speaker 6: other countries that have been oman that have been serving
• 38:11
  Speaker 6: in a mediator role, that the Iranians are willing to
• 38:15
  Speaker 6: reciprocate if the US stops bombing. It's very similar to
• 38:18
  Speaker 6: the agreement that the United States made with anser Allah
• 38:21
  Speaker 6: in Yemen. You know, it's Trump portrayed as a double
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: sided ceasefire, but the Iranians have portrayed this as Trump
• 38:29
  Speaker 6: essentially agreeing to the framework that the Iranians have demanded
• 38:32
  Speaker 6: from the third day of the war, and that they're
• 38:35
  Speaker 6: going to watch and see, but that their finger remains
• 38:37
  Speaker 6: on the trigger. The big risk that I'm told by
• 38:40
  Speaker 6: Iranians is that this is then used, like it's been
• 38:43
  Speaker 6: twice before in the past year, to give cover for
• 38:46
  Speaker 6: the planning of a massive bombing campaign or some kind
• 38:50
  Speaker 6: of attempted special operations deployment inside of Iran, or that
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: it's just going to be used as a temporary pause
• 38:57
  Speaker 6: to re arm Israel so that it can defend more
• 39:00
  Speaker 6: robustly against ballistic missile attacks and to bring more US
• 39:04
  Speaker 6: firepower into the region. You know, Trump has completely made
• 39:07
  Speaker 6: a mockery of the legitimacy of the word of the
• 39:10
  Speaker 6: United States in an unprecedented way. In the two hundred
• 39:13
  Speaker 6: and fifty years of the country, we have never had
• 39:16
  Speaker 6: a president that so brazenly and openly and blatantly lies
• 39:21
  Speaker 6: about the United States negotiating and then uses the full
• 39:25
  Speaker 6: force of the US military in a clandestine or you know,
• 39:28
  Speaker 6: covert operation that is barely covert or clandestine because he's
• 39:31
  Speaker 6: openly doing it.
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: Another HeiG Seth quote here from the briefing. You see,
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: had Iran refused our terms, the next targets would have
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: been their power plants, bridges, and oil and energy infrastructure,
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: targets they could not defend and could not realistically rebuild.
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: We were locked and loaded. President Trump had the power
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: to cripple Iran's entire economy in minutes, but he chose mercy.
• 39:53
  Speaker 6: Response to that, Jeremy, I mean, this is complete nonsense.
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: Look what happened in the past forty eight hours in Iran.
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: You had Iranians of various political stripes coming out and
• 40:03
  Speaker 6: saying that they were going to serve as human shields
• 40:06
  Speaker 6: around the energy infrastructure of Iran, gathering in the many,
• 40:09
  Speaker 6: many thousands around sites that Trump said that he was
• 40:12
  Speaker 6: going to bomb. At the same time, you had the
• 40:15
  Speaker 6: IRGC laying out maps of exactly what they were going
• 40:19
  Speaker 6: to bomb in the GCC Arab countries and in Israel
• 40:23
  Speaker 6: as well. So I really do think that this was
• 40:26
  Speaker 6: a case of Trump blinking. First. I didn't hear or
• 40:30
  Speaker 6: get any sense that the Iranians were in a state
• 40:32
  Speaker 6: of panic about this. They were resigned to the idea
• 40:34
  Speaker 6: that Trump may well go forward and try to do this.
• 40:37
  Speaker 6: They understood that that was a possibility, and I never
• 40:40
  Speaker 6: once got a sense talking to Iranian officials that they
• 40:43
  Speaker 6: were in a panic about it. I think they were
• 40:46
  Speaker 6: of the mindset that if that's our fate, it's our fate.
• 40:48
  Speaker 6: But we're going to continue to fight the United States.
• 40:52
  Speaker 6: So Hegseth has been bloviating and engaging in some kind
• 40:56
  Speaker 6: of really warped Christian nationalist rhetoric wrap this whole thing up,
• 41:01
  Speaker 6: but underpinning at all has been demonstrable lies. Every time
• 41:05
  Speaker 6: they tell us Iran has been wiped out, Iran intensifies
• 41:08
  Speaker 6: its attacks. The scale of damage that Iran had a
• 41:12
  Speaker 6: capacity to inflict if the United States began widely bombing
• 41:16
  Speaker 6: its energy infrastructure, would have dwarfed the scale of what
• 41:20
  Speaker 6: we're seeing in the Strait of Hormuz. In terms of
• 41:22
  Speaker 6: the damage it did to all of those golf Arab
• 41:24
  Speaker 6: countries that Trump and his son in law Jared Kushner
• 41:27
  Speaker 6: have cultivated deep financial relationships with. And I think Trump
• 41:32
  Speaker 6: blinked here, but I would not put it past him
• 41:34
  Speaker 6: to be plotting with Netanyahu a return to massive bombing
• 41:38
  Speaker 6: and using this as just a pause to rearm.
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: And yeah, last question for me, do you have a
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: sense of how the Iranians view Israel's ongoing role in this, Like,
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: do they believe that Israel is going to abide by
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: the seasefire? Are they going to stop hitting Israel if
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: Israel is continuing to hit Lebanon.
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: I mean this is I was texting with a source
• 41:59
  Speaker 6: this morning. I mean, I do think that the Iranians
• 42:02
  Speaker 6: take very seriously the statement that the Israelis made early
• 42:07
  Speaker 6: this morning that they were not going to cease their
• 42:10
  Speaker 6: fire in Lebanon. My guess would be that Trump's going
• 42:13
  Speaker 6: to have to intervene to some extent. But I you know,
• 42:15
  Speaker 6: the Israelis have a PhD in violating every single so
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: called ceasefire that they've ever signed, specifically in Lebanon, where
• 42:22
  Speaker 6: there was a ceasefire for more than a year. Where
• 42:23
  Speaker 6: the Israel Israeli is just repeatedly bombed and bombed and bombed.
• 42:27
  Speaker 6: So I think that's one flashpoint that could call into
• 42:30
  Speaker 6: question the overarching ceasefire deal, if you want to call
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: it that, over the next two weeks. But I think
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: the Iranians have a sense that they're in a long
• 42:39
  Speaker 6: war with Israel, and right now they're focused on what
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: kind of agreement Trump may or may not be willing
• 42:46
  Speaker 6: to engage in. I do have the sense that the
• 42:49
  Speaker 6: Iranians are fully prepared to resume, you know, a full
• 42:53
  Speaker 6: scale war, and I don't think they want it, but
• 42:57
  Speaker 6: you know, I think the US has really underestimated Iran's capacity,
• 43:01
  Speaker 6: and I think that the US has really cartoonized Iranian society,
• 43:07
  Speaker 6: the political diversity that exists in Iranian society, and the
• 43:11
  Speaker 6: extent to which it's a real story that Iranians of
• 43:14
  Speaker 6: various political stripes, including those opposed to the government, have
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: come out in opposition to this bombing. Those aren't minor issues.
• 43:23
  Speaker 6: And I think that, you know what, the effect of
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: this war in a broader sense, And this was reflected
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: in the comments posted this morning by Pozshkian, the President
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: of Iran where he said that going forward, we have
• 43:37
  Speaker 6: to try to function and operate as one nation. Yes,
• 43:41
  Speaker 6: Iran engages in propaganda like all other nations, but I
• 43:44
  Speaker 6: think there's some significant legitimacy to the idea that Iranians
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: were overwhelmingly opposed to what the US and Israel were doing,
• 43:51
  Speaker 6: and they understand that as long as Israel operates with
• 43:54
  Speaker 6: nuclear weapons and has the full backing of the US
• 43:57
  Speaker 6: to wage these kinds of wars, that it's just a
• 44:01
  Speaker 6: temporary pause, regardless of whatever agreement gets signed in terms
• 44:04
  Speaker 6: of the war against Israel.
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: And that's my final question, Jeremy. Is Donald Trump right
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: now is saying he has determined Iran has gone through
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: a regime change. Obviously the person at the very top
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: has changed, But what is your response to the claim
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: that actually the regime itself has been changed by this
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: forty day, thirty eight day, whatever it's been long war.
• 44:29
  Speaker 6: I think this is part of the combination of ignorance
• 44:32
  Speaker 6: and arrogance that we've seen when US officials, and it's
• 44:35
  Speaker 6: not just Trump, you hear this from the think tank crowd,
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: the people paid to think by the makers of tanks,
• 44:41
  Speaker 6: where they really oversimplify Iran's system. This they often talk
• 44:48
  Speaker 6: you know, Trump and others, Oh, for forty seven years,
• 44:50
  Speaker 6: the Iranians have that have been doing this well.
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: For forty seven years.
• 44:53
  Speaker 6: Iran has been building institutions knowing that the most powerful
• 44:57
  Speaker 6: country in the world wanted to change its regime and
• 44:59
  Speaker 6: wipe out its government and eliminate its effective sovereignty. So
• 45:03
  Speaker 6: what I would say is, I think these are greatly
• 45:06
  Speaker 6: exaggerated claims. Yes, it's true that some of the more
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: flexible known public figures have been assassinated. I think it
• 45:14
  Speaker 6: is true that to some degree, the IRGC, the lesson
• 45:18
  Speaker 6: it's learned from the past two and a half years
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: has been that it was a mistake not to pursue
• 45:23
  Speaker 6: a nuclear weapon, that it was a mistake to choreograph
• 45:26
  Speaker 6: its retaliatory strikes since the Gaza genocide began, rather than
• 45:30
  Speaker 6: actually smacking hard as they've done since February twenty eighth.
• 45:34
  Speaker 6: But I don't think there's been an actual change of regime.
• 45:37
  Speaker 6: I think this is wishful thinking and propaganda. I think
• 45:40
  Speaker 6: Iran's institutions have endured, and in asymmetric warfare, the less
• 45:45
  Speaker 6: powerful less mighty in terms of use of force side
• 45:49
  Speaker 6: in it wins by not losing, and so I think
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: this is a microcosmic situation that has some essence of
• 45:57
  Speaker 6: Vietnam or Afghanistan.
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: Me correspondent for Drop Site News, my colleague over there,
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: thank you so much for joining us.
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: Really appreciate it. Thank you, guys.
• 46:10
  Speaker 5: Just as we're sitting here, Ryan the Pentagon is doing
• 46:13
  Speaker 5: a briefing this morning, one of those early eight am
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: briefings with Dan Kin Truman, the Chief of Staff and
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, responding to the wild events,
• 46:24
  Speaker 5: the roller coaster of the last thirteen or so hours.
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: Here's a little bit from Secretary of War Hegseth.
• 46:30
  Speaker 7: Just moments ago, other presidents mark time and kicked the
• 46:33
  Speaker 7: can down the road. President Trump made history, from the
• 46:39
  Speaker 7: strike that took out Kasum Sulimani, to tearing up the
• 46:42
  Speaker 7: disastrous Obama Iran Deal, to the precision campaign that obliterated
• 46:47
  Speaker 7: Iron's nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer, to the decisive
• 46:51
  Speaker 7: military victory.
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: We just achieved in Operation Epic Fury.
• 46:55
  Speaker 7: This commander in Chief, President Trump, forged this moment. Iran
• 47:01
  Speaker 7: begged for this ceasefire, and we all know it, but
• 47:06
  Speaker 7: they can no longer build missiles, build rockets, build launchers,
• 47:11
  Speaker 7: or build UAVs. Their factories have been raised to the ground.
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: Iron begged for the ceasefire we're being told now. And actually,
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: as I was watching this news roll in, I wanted
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: to go back to White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt's
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: long post that people may remember. I remember recovered this
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: at the time, this back on March second. Clearly, there
• 47:30
  Speaker 5: was a lot of frustration in the White House, with
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: people on the right and in general criticizing the President
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: for not having a clear objective because what we were
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: hearing from everyone was all over the place. I mean,
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: at this point even the most die hard magas porter
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: would have to agree there was mixed messaging. The first
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: still continued throughout the entire war, but in the first
• 47:52
  Speaker 5: several days it was absolutely all over the place. So
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: Caroline Levitt came out with a post or said where
• 47:57
  Speaker 5: she said. President Trump released a statement laying out clear
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: objectives the American people for Operation Epic Fury. Let me
• 48:04
  Speaker 5: reiterate them, destroy the Iranian regimes missiles and raise their
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: missile industry to the ground, Annihilate the Iranian regimes Navy,
• 48:10
  Speaker 5: ensure the regimes terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region,
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: stop them from making and using IEDs or roadside bombs,
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: guarantee that Irun can never obtain a nuclear weapon. Preventing
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: this radical regime and it's terrorist leaders from threatening America
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: and our core national security interest is a clear eyed
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: and necessary objective, and went on to say the terrorist
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: Iranian regime would not say yes to peace. Their brutal
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: attacks and threats will finally end under President Trump, contrasting
• 48:37
  Speaker 5: where their clearest version, their clearest iteration of what the
• 48:41
  Speaker 5: objectives were just several days into the war hexeth right now,
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: saying the Iranians begged, begged for what just happened in
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: the last twelve or so hours. Ryan, It's remarkable. I mean,
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: it's not surprising, I don't think, but it's just remarkable
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: how the pr efforts to clean all this up are
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: going to be detached from the reality.
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, when you go into and we'll talk about this
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: in the next segment, when we talk about this New
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: New York Times article on then Yahoo, when you go
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: into the war with completely flawed assumptions about how it
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: will unfold, and then it unfolds completely differently than you expected.
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: Regime change.
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: That is, regime change are not going to be They're
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: not going to be able to close the straight up removes,
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: They're not going to be able to attack the Gulf allies,
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: all all of that turns out to be untrue.
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: Then yeah, you're going to be You're going to be stuck.
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: Then just trying to like put overwhelming force on a
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: run and at some point you come up against your
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: own physical limits of how much you can bomb and
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: the moral limits of how much you can get away
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: with destruction of civilian infrastructure and civilians themselves. And that
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: gets us to this really fascinating response from the Iranian public.
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: You know, we were told that the Runian public is
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: ready to overthrow the regime and they just need a little.
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: Bit of help.
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: Yep, Kurds were coming in.
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: The Kurds are coming in, the students are going to
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: all rise up. Instead, we bombed the universities, but if
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: we can roll b one here.
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: This is.
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: One of the more popular musicians in Iran, Ali Gasmari,
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: who has previously clashed significantly with the Iranian regime. Then
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: he got in a bunch of trouble because he brought
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: some women without head coverings up on stage and otherwise
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: has been he's the kind of person who's obviously going
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: to be critical of a conservative government, very extremely conservative government,
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: like the one in Iran. He positioned himself outside of
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: the power plant, saying that if you're going to plunge
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: my people into darkness, you're going to take me with them.
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: And then thousands of people at various power plants showed
• 50:57
  Speaker 4: up and stood on bridges and outside of power plants, saying,
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: if you're if you're going to take this bridge out,
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: you're going to take us out with it, which to
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: me was a an amount of courage, an amount of
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: confidence in Trump's humanity that I don't think I have.
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: I was like, oh God, I don't think this is
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: going to stop Trump.
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: This alone. Now, he didn't do it. He ended up
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: taking the deal that was on the table. Great glad
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: that they weren't killed. The Iranian said, you know that
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: they were going to be down there basically live streaming
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: and saying like, if you're really going to do this,
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: you're going to have to kill us too, And I
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: just don't think that. That was how nen Yahoo explained
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: to Trump. The Irunnian people would respond.
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: Yeah, clearly it wasn't. We'll get to that.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: Plus the plus the.
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: Joint Chiefs guy saying the other day, every Iranian with
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: a gun was shooting at it when we were trying
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: to rescue our down airman.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like, wait a minute, I thought thought they
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: were you were liberating them and they'd be welcoming you weird.
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: Well, ran this countdown clock on Israeli TV went right
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: down in the wire speaking.
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: Of humanity, let's move into inhumanity.
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: Was this channel thirteen oh for an Israel.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like a New Year's countdown clock?
• 52:23
  Speaker 5: Right?
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: Oh, Man, I wonder we should find out how was
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: it the ninety minute mark when they were like, was
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: there a giddiness and then just a deflation?
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, the meltdown.
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: On on Israeli Twitter and pro Israel US Twitter has
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: been something to be a whold, that's for sure.
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: Well, actually, speaking of what's happened internally in Iran, let's
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: go ahead and put now B five on the screen.
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: This is a video of Iranian Jews looking at this
• 52:59
  Speaker 5: synagogue in Tehran that had been bombed on Passover Ryan.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: Rubble one hundred synagogues and well, I guess there were
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: one hundred synagogues in Iran, Like, how are they like insane?
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: Yeah, if you're not, if you're listening to this, just
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: rabbis walking through complete rubble in Tehran a glimpse inside,
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: I mean, is a synagogue.
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: Who knows how old that synagogue is.
• 53:26
  Speaker 5: That's a good point as well. Tehran is a massive city,
• 53:29
  Speaker 5: ten million plus people. Utter destruction to the synagogue and
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: to many other places in the city obviously, So the
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: other thing I wanted to mention we mentioned a lot
• 53:42
  Speaker 5: of I mean, just not getting a lot of attention
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: in Western media at all, but looking at potentially, according
• 53:48
  Speaker 5: to human rights groups, like sixteen hundred civilian deaths two
• 53:52
  Speaker 5: hundred and forty four children in Iran since the beginning
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: of the war Ryan. The part of the element of
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: this that we have and even discussed is to what extent,
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: looking at the video of the human chain and the like,
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: all of this then proves the point the Mullahs we're
• 54:08
  Speaker 5: making that the United States will stop at nothing. You
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: have the President of the United States saying he's going
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: to destroy the entire civilization. We don't even need to
• 54:17
  Speaker 5: bring up the extent of that rhetoric or go back
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: into it because everyone is totally familiar with it and
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: how unhinged it was. That seems like it has a
• 54:27
  Speaker 5: pretty good chance of rallying Iranians around the IRGC at
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: a level that they weren't even before the war began.
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: The name that the Iranian government had for us was
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: the Great Satan. Tucker Carlson basically embraced that name for
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: Trump himself in his podcast was yesterday or the day before,
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: calling him effectively some version of Antichrist. It was, yeah,
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: we have certainly done ourselves no favors, but hopefully you know,
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: you heard from Iranian leaders the entire time that they
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: would say the same thing that we say about their leadership.
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: It would say, we know that the American government does
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: not represent the American people. We know the American people
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: voted to end the endless wars. We know the American
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: people voted for America first not to be dragged into
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: war by Israel. So that you kept hearing that from
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: Iranian leaders. So that's at least positive that the Iranian
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: people and the American people at least kind of finally
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: identify with each other that neither of us want these wars.
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: Yet here we are so and hopefully, you know, collectively,
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: we can get to a place where we're not doing it.
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: Well. Yeah, I mean when the war started, it's not
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: as though the majority of the country was behind the IRGC,
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: whether or not Netanyahu, I mean, whatever what Netanyahu was
• 55:54
  Speaker 5: telling our president, We're going to get to that in
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: just a moment. It's not as though the entire country
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: was behind the iergy. See, it was and genuinely divided,
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: and people and around genuinely were divided. I just think
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: there's a serious question on the table now to what
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: extent support may have increased for the more radical leadership
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: in Iran. After again, you have people say the United
• 56:14
  Speaker 5: States wants to wipe you off the map, take out
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: the entire civilization, and the parsid of the United States
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: comes out and says an entire civilization will end, children
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: are killed.
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah what I hate. Yeah, I'm one of these piece necks.
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: If I were Irunni and I'd be in that reformer camp. Yeah,
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: let's do diplomacy, let's do engage.
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: You're dirty hippie, let's talk to this.
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: I'm a dirty hippie.
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: Like just objectively speaking, the dirty hippies had their legs
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: cut out from under them, and the people arguing that
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: force and violence was a more effective path towards dignity, sovereignty,
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: and peace. On the other side, those folks are being validated,
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: and people like me are being invalidated, and that sucks
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: because the lesson that people are going to learn from
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: this is that in this world, violence actually is more
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: and is more likely to get you where you need
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: to go.
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: But it begets violence. It always begets more violence.
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: That's one of the plats, as the hardliners would argue, No,
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: it was actually appeasement, it was actually you know, it
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: was actually the diplomacy, the the attempt to reach peace
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: betrayed weakness then to the US and Israel, and US
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: and Israel would then just attack them constantly. I mean,
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: I don't want that to be true, but yeah, so
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: far it's not looking not looking good for my camp,
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: looking good for the hardliner camp, but.
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: The long term is not looking good for anyone.
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: No, that's that's very true. Also,