Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Dr Leon Goldsmith: Otago University Professor for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics on the capture of Bashar Al-Assad

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Dr Leon Goldsmith: Otago University Professor for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics on the capture of Bashar Al-Assad · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a route the sad Assad families. Decades long
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: reign in Syria came to an abrupt end over the
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: weekend when rebel forces captured Damascus. It was a stunning
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: lightning strike route right across the country. Russian officials have
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: said that Alisade has fled the country. They've called for
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: a peaceful transition of power. So to talk about this,
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  Speaker 1: we are now joined by doctor Leon Goldsmith, who works
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  Speaker 1: at the Ottaga University professor for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the program, Leon, good morning. Yes, it seems
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  Speaker 1: pretty definitive. It's happened, hasn't it. And was it a surprise, Well,
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  Speaker 1: I think it was.
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  Speaker 2: I think it was a bit of a shark in
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  Speaker 2: terms of just how hollow this regime was after like
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  Speaker 2: fifty years of iron forested rule in the heart of
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East. I think Syrians are in a state
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  Speaker 2: of euphoria as of last night that I can't quite
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  Speaker 2: believe that that this original was gone. It's quite a
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  Speaker 2: cataclysmic it's.
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  Speaker 1: Yes, it is, and it's almost like an Alisard who
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  Speaker 1: fought against us for so long and so hard, then
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  Speaker 1: took some time off and just lost the will.
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  Speaker 2: Well. I think what's happened is over in the last
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  Speaker 2: four years, he's actually lost his main support base of
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  Speaker 2: loyalists within the country, and I think there was a
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  Speaker 2: growing sense that what they had fought for there was
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  Speaker 2: no victory Vividen for all of the sacrifices that his
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  Speaker 2: supporters had made, and they were suffering more than ever
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  Speaker 2: under his rule, and he didn't seem to care.
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  Speaker 1: The other thing, of course, is that his major allies
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  Speaker 1: that were helping to fund him are helping to weaponize him.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, Russia and Iran, they've got their own problems,
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  Speaker 1: and so he was a bit abandoned.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, he was extremely vulnerable and exposed in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the Russian support that the Russians have been there
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  Speaker 2: since the fifties, and they ran has been a major
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  Speaker 2: batter of the region in percents the eighties. So this
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  Speaker 2: is a fundamental change of the regional order as well
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  Speaker 2: in terms of the main sort of power balance in
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  Speaker 2: the region as well. It's going to be a lot
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  Speaker 2: of change.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, of course. Now here's the thing. Meet the new boss.
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  Speaker 1: Is it the same as the old boss? What do
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  Speaker 1: we know about the rebel forces? Is is actually a liberation.
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  Speaker 1: Are these guys good guys?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah? And I say this is this is the once
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  Speaker 2: the euphoria, initial euphorias, that of dies down in the
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  Speaker 2: business of trying to see what a new Syria is
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  Speaker 2: going to look like. But I think we have to
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  Speaker 2: understand that Jilani or is going by his birth name
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  Speaker 2: now Athman Shar'ah's not Isais al Kaida anymore. In fact,
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  Speaker 2: they'll see a lot of what he's doing has been
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  Speaker 2: a sort of antithetical to their extremest failures. But at
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  Speaker 2: the same time, he is not someone that most Syrians actually,
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  Speaker 2: despite the fact that that I appreciate what's happened in
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  Speaker 2: terms of the liberation of the country, would want to
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  Speaker 2: see as kind of someone adopting a powerful possession. I
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  Speaker 2: think what you're going to see is a much broader
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  Speaker 2: effort to try and coordinate an inclusive government. And I
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  Speaker 2: think that's what we're seeing in the early stages. We're
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  Speaker 2: seeing a very orderly transition. We're seeing a lot of
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  Speaker 2: the existing institutions remaining in place. The Prime Minister Jilali
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  Speaker 2: Sad has gone. We don't know exactly where he's gone.
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  Speaker 2: There's rumors that he may even be have died in
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  Speaker 2: a plane crash or something like that. But I think
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  Speaker 2: that we shouldn't jump to conclusions. That's what I'm saying.
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  Speaker 2: This is not This is not the same as Kulliban
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  Speaker 2: takeover in Afghanistan for example.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no, that's good. Could it's not going to
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  Speaker 1: be as bad as we might imagine, But then again
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  Speaker 1: it might not be as good as that we might hope.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's why we'll think. It's very important to keep
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  Speaker 2: in mind. It wasn't just HTS liberated Syria over the
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  Speaker 2: last eleven days, set free Cerian army element from the
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  Speaker 2: from the south and from the from the east. Also
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  Speaker 2: just ordinary Syrians rising up in their towns and villages,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: overthrowing the local Baptist forces, and it's much broader coalition
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  Speaker 2: general Syrian uprising and overthrowing of this regime.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Good stuff, Leon Goldsworth, I thank you for your time today.
• 4:18
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• 4:21
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• 4:24
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