Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 64 - 6/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 64 - 6/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 64 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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week. And did you know we have a draft
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tonight? That's right.
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The NBA draft is tonight kind of crept up on us.
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Unlike the NFL draft, which, you know, you're kind of tracking
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and monitoring 24/7 all year long with a ton of hype and
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attention, this one obviously kind of crept up out of nowhere
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on us. But I do love betting on drafts
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because to me, when it comes to betting on the draft, you don't
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have to know the players. You don't have to know there's
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strengths and weaknesses, you just have to be able to monitor
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the market and really identify and get down on trend lines,
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especially looking at mock drafts, as well as the odds
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movement in the juice movement based upon draft position.
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So I do have some updates here and some bets on the NBA Draft
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for tonight. I'm going to give you some
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updated odds on who the top three picks are likely to be.
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It looks like we know who one and two will be #3 there's a
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lien, but it's becoming a little bit more competitive.
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And then I do have a couple best bets for you in the NBA Draft,
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including two overall. And we're going to focus on some
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draft over under positions. So I'm liking a couple players
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here to actually go over their draft position.
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And also we're going to talk about shopping for the best line
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because especially when it comes to NBA drafts or any drafts in
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particular, you know you can have very different prices from
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one book to the next. SO2 bets overall can have a
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little fun tonight with the NBA draft from a data-driven
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perspective. And right back to baseball.
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I have a three pack of MLB bets for you guys tonight, including
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a dog, a favorite, and a total. So pretty much all different bet
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types we'll be covering here for time, including a total.
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With the wind blowing out and two high ERA pitchers, I'm
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hoping this total flies over and we get a high scoring game.
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Now looking back to her last night, Man, This is why sports
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betting is so frustrating and so difficult because on the one
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hand, we were awesome on Monday. 6 and O + 4.35 units.
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Then what happened yesterday? I think the gambling gods are
2:26
just toying with US1 in 5 -, 4.18 again.
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I think when it when it comes to betting on sports and you have a
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great night like 6 and O, you're never quite as good as you
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think. When you have a bad night, one
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and five, nothing goes your way. You're never as quite as bad as
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you think. So you're always somewhere in
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between. Frustrating part about last
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night is we beat some closing numbers and just a lot of these
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favourites got rolled. It was a weird day in baseball
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where I want to say 19-9 different dogs.
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One, I think dogs were like nine and three or nine, four and one
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or I forgot what the exact number was, but dogs were just,
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you know, barking, barking their heads off last night.
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Now, of course, as we lean on a lot of favorites, that's a bad
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thing for us. The reason that I lean quite a
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bit more favorites than dogs and baseball is that the data bears
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out favorites do better. Chalk does better than dogs.
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And I can give you the updated numbers here in a bit.
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But Nationals, you know, couldn't get it done.
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Dog to favorite. The Red Sox were booting the
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ball around like a Little League team.
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The Reds got rolled early. Even Philly losing to lowly, you
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know, lowly Detroit. The Orioles, yeah, they're down
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to had bases loaded. Nobody out in the seventh,
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couldn't get a single run across.
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So they lose to the the Guardians who continue to just
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be a machine. The only winner there was the
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Giants late night. They were lucky enough to come
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through for us. But that's betting.
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One day you're 6 and O next day you're 1:00 and 5:00.
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You got to keep grinding, keep sticking with it.
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But I'm looking forward to hopefully creating a new streak
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here for tonight. Now, without further ado, I want
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to start off with the NBA draft. Then we'll get into our baseball
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bets for tonight. So looking at the draft from a
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data-driven perspective, what does that mean?
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First of all, it means that we're focusing on numbers in the
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way they move. Now, will every single, you
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know, move be correct? No, I'll give you a perfect
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example. When it came to the awards
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market. Last game of the NBA Finals, you
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saw actually in the live market, Jason Tatum got up to, I want to
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say like a -, 150 favorite to win Finals MVP.
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What happens, you know, it doesn't go to Tatum, it goes to
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Jalen Brown. However, there were countless
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examples from the NFL draft, if you guys remember, where we
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noticed some trend lines and got down and made quite a bit of
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money. Like I'll give you a perfect
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example, Bo Nicks. Do you remember we were able to
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cash Bo Nicks. Why were we able to cash Bo
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Nicks? I remember his over under was, I
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want to say 32 1/2 basically, would he be a first round pick?
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What we noticed the juice movement.
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So Nicks over 32 1/2 at one point was juiced up like over
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-200 then it flipped to under like I thought it was like -180
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something like that. So looking at the way the juice
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moves, that can really tell us where the sharp money is coming
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in, where the more informed bets are coming in.
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Now, I'll give you a cautionary tale because it was not last
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year. It was two years ago, or maybe
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it was a long time ago. Anyway, it was the Paolo Bancaro
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year with, with Smith. If you remember, Paolo Bancaro
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ended up going first overall. But if you looked at kind of
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what the, the, you know, insiders were saying, Roe
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Drorowski, he was banging the drum that it was not going to be
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Paulo Bang Carroll. It was actually going to be,
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wasn't it Smith as Jason's, what the heck was his name?
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Jabari Smith? That's right, Jabari Smith
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junior. Anyway, there was word leaking
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out was saying, hey, it's going to be Jabari Smith.
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The odds shifted big in his favor.
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This is actually two years ago or actually it was 20/22/23
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health because it was a teachable moment for me.
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Woj tweets out that it's going to be Smith number one.
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Overall, all the markets move towards Smith.
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What happens Woj was wrong. It ended up being being Caro.
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So even though the market moved, it was moving based on Intel
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thinking that hey, Woj's word is gold.
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Woj got it wrong. So I, I wouldn't ever just take,
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you know, these insiders, you know, word as gold like, you
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know, to me, Woj kind of gave up that that card of of being
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someone you can follow when he got that one wrong again, no
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one's perfect, but my whole point being is that majority of
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situations with juice movement and liability, it is going to
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point you in the right direction.
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So I'm going to give you some examples and if you want to do
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this on your own, he would be my advice.
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I did this when I woke up this morning.
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Basically I screenshotted all the different odds.
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So depending on your your sports book, you know you're going to
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have odds for first overall pick, second overall pick, 3rd,
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4th, 5th. Will they be a top five?
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Will they be a top ten? Then you have draft position
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over unders. Then you have head to heads who
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will be drafted ahead of one another.
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So what I would do if you haven't done it yet is just log
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into your account and screenshot all these odds.
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And then basically what you want to do is have a reference point
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and look at the movement, especially, you know, we always
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talk about game day movement when it comes to betting on, you
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know, any kind of sport. But whether it's like NFL, you
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know, from 11:00 AM to 1:00 that movement is really important
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because that's when the biggest bets come in and limits are
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raised. Well, same thing on draft day,
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words leaking out, you know, money's moving.
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So if you can find a reference point by screenshot in the odds
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and seeing how they move, it's going to give you an indication
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of where the the money is flowing.
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Like I'll give you a couple examples.
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Who will be the first overall pick tonight?
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Now it looks like it's going to be Zachary Risa Cher, Risa Cher.
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I can't even pronounce the kids name.
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Anyway, I woke up this morning, he was -400 to be the first
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overall pick. Now he's -500 So the Lions will
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be in his favor. Looks like he'll go one to the
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Hawks -500 of those too expensive for me.
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I'm not betting it. Second pick SAR, Alexander, SAR,
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he was -750 to go second overall this morning.
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Now he's -1000 so again, looking like SAR will go second.
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I believe that's the Wizards. But again, a price that is still
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too expensive for me. Now it gets interesting.
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Number third, number three overall pick.
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It looks like as of now it's going to be Reed Shepherd.
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If you remember, this was the the sharpshooter, the sharp,
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kind of like AJJ Reddit kind of guy who was on Kentucky.
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He's considered the best shooter in the draft.
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This morning I woke up, he was -190 he's down to -180 so he's
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still the favorite to go third overall.
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But Donovan Clinging, the big man from UConn, he's made a move
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here. He was plus 2:50 this morning.
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Now he's plus 165 S. Based upon the movement, it
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looks like Richer is one, SAR is number 2, and Shepherd is still
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the favorite. But Clinging is kind of getting
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a little bit closer here. So what I'm thinking is, you
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know there could be value on betting #3 just because if you
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like shepherd -180 isn't a bad price and everything it's going
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to be Kling on, you're going to be getting some plus one plus
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money there plus 165. But I would also look at the
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exact three. So top three.
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Remember we cashed this one in the in the NFL draft because we
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had Williams Daniels in May. Now, right now you have Rishi
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sure one, SAR two and Shepherd three at -150.
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However, if Klingon gets in there, it's Rishi sure SAR and
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Klingon at +200. Anyway, what I'm getting at is
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if you're going to bet on #3 because again, these first two
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numbers, we, we think it's going to be risk assure and SAR, but
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they're so high-priced that it's really not worth betting on it.
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You have to risk too much to win.
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Just, you know, too small of a price here on a bet to risk
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first bet to win proposition. So what I'm getting at is
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bookmark these odds. Let's see how these move.
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This is still early afternoon. When's the draft at 8:00
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tonight? I'm not sure because I got the
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Championship Beer League softball game tonight that I'll
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be attending and very excited about.
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So I can't even watch this draft tonight.
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Anyway, bookmark that because again, right now in these odds
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I'm giving you, they're coming from DraftKings.
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So as of right now, you know, will it be Shepherd?
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Will it be clinging? I keep saying Klingon like a
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like a Star Trek fan, but that's to me where I think you want to
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start paying attention. Like for example, if you see the
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number three overall pick, Reed shepherd -180 jump to -250 or
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maybe you see Shepherd, you know, flip and clinging becomes
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the favorite at -150 That's what you want to look at.
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Go with the late movement if you want to bet that third overall
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pick. Now I want to give you the best
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bets that I am making and holding in pocket.
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The first one here and I was looking at some over under draft
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positions and I was basically combining them with mock drafts.
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So the mock draft that I was referring to was ESPN.
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It's Jonathan Giovoni, who to me is, you know, kind of a pretty
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respectable guy. He's really dialed in.
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His whole thing is, you know, he's kind of like the Kuiper,
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the Mcshea. He's really all about prospects
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and knowing them for many years and and you know, putting out
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mock drafts that are typically pretty spot on.
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I noticed a couple here that line up with Javoni's mock draft
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along with the way the market is moving.
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So the first one, I have two bets, only two bets tonight.
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First one is Isaiah Collier. So Isaiah Collier, if you don't
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know, he was on USC, he played with Ronnie James.
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But if you look at Collier, we've seen some movement here in
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his over under draft position. Let me just pull it up here
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because Collier, when I woke up this morning, his draft position
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was 18 1/2. So if you bet the over, he's got
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to be 19 or, you know, 19 or later.
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If you bet the under, he's got to be 18 or or earlier.
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But that 18 1/2 has now been bet up to 20 1/2.
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So he's moved two spots up. And when it was 18 1/2, the over
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was -200 now it's 20 1/2 / -, 165.
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So this tells me that Collier, basically his stock is sinking a
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little bit. Unexpected or not expected to,
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you know, be a top 20 pick, really they're leaning on him
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being 21 or later. Now, I went to Javoni's mock
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draft and he has Collier going 26th to the Wizards, so there's
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a connection there. So what I'm getting at is
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Javoni's got him 26th, his number is rising 18 after 20 and
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a half. And not only is it rising, but
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the juice is still on the over. Now the other thing I want to
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mention when it comes to mock drafts, shop around, shop
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around, shop around because there's different prices out
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there. Like if you want to pay a little
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bit more juice, I noticed the book with Collier that is over
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19 1/2 at -200. And I did see another book
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that's still at over 18 1/2 at -250.
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So that is a personal preference up to you.
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I'm going over 20 1/2 at -165 because I want to save a little
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bit more juice. But if you are willing to pay
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some more juice, you get the over 18 1/2 at -250 / 19 half at
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-200. Now, if he ends up going 19th,
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I'm going to say, wow, I should have paid more juice and gotten
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over 18 1/2 at -250. If he ends up going 20th, I'm
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going to say what an idiot. I was trying to save a little
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bit of juice going over 20 1/2 when I should have gone over 19
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1/2. So again, this is a preference
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that you need to make like I guess I would say like if
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Giovanni had him going, you know, 20th, 21st, maybe I'd pay
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a little more juice on the over 18 and a half 19 1/2.
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But the fact that he's got him 26, his stock seems to be
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falling a bit here. I'm going to go with over 20 1/2
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for Isaiah Collier. He is a guard out of USC at over
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20 1/2 at -165 The other bet that I make that I made is Tyler
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Smith. Now Tyler Smith.
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I'll I'll admit when I woke up this morning, I had never heard
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of this guy. He is a 19 year old who plays in
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the G League. So obviously skipping, skipping
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college and trying to take the path of, you know, who was it?
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Who was it? Not Jabari.
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Who's the shooting guard on the Rockets?
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Jalen Green. You know, we've seen these guys
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in the past, you know, skip college and go to the G League.
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Anyway, Tyler Smith, I did a little research on him.
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He's a small forward slash power forward.
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But I noticed a big move on Tyler Smith because Tyler Smith,
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in terms of his juice, Tyler Smith woke up this morning, he
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was over 27 1/2 at -150. Now he's over 27 1/2 at -180.
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So the juice is rising on him to go over or, you know, 28 or or
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later. Now, if you look at Giovanni's
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mock draft, he has him going 36 overall to the Pacers.
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So if the juice is rising on Tyler Smith again to be 28 or
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later over 27 1/2, Giovanni's got him going 36 again.
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I feel like we're creating an edge here in terms of the market
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aligning with what the top mock draft prognosticators have now.
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Shop around 2:00 because I did see a book at over 20 1/2 at
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-200 So that's basically a, a worst number and a worst price.
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So the whole point being is have multiple outs.
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You know, try to get the best position, but also the best
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price. And then, you know, if you have
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a difference between position and price, I think you got to
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just make a, a decision that you're comfortable with in terms
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of either getting a better number at a higher price or a
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worse number at a lower price. I'm going to leave that up to
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you. So Long story short, I'm going
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to go with two bets tonight. I'm going to go Collier over 20
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1/2 at -165 and Tyler Smith over 27 1/2 at -180.
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Now I will mention Bronny James, big topic of conversation.
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I did notice that he was at 49 1/2 this morning.
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Now he's at 54 1/2 / -, 140. You're asking yourself what?
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What's the deal with 54 1/2? The Lakers pick at 55.
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So basically, you know, Bronny could be, you know, very late in
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the second round. I didn't make a bet on Bronny
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James. I saw you open at 39 1/2.
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If you're holding over 39 1/2, I mean, you're feeling great right
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now, but no play for Bronny. We'll see if he goes late second
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round, maybe goes to the Lakers. But again, Collier over 20 1/2
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at -165 and Smith over 27 1/2 at -180 That's what I'm rocking
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with for tonight. Keep on cruising.
15:30
Let's go over to some Major League Baseball because we got
15:33
some sweats here in MLB and I want to go first Oakland against
15:37
the Los Angeles Angels. So Angels here coming to the
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game 32 and 46. They've taken the first two
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games of this three-game series. They won the opener 5 to one for
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us the other night -135 home favorite coming through.
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They won again last night, 7:00 to 5:00 as a -, 115 home
15:53
favorite. So for this game, which first
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pitch is at 4 O 7:00 PM Eastern Time.
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So as soon as this pod drops, you probably want to get it in
16:01
anyway. We for the pitching match up
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here we have the A's 29 and 53 going with Joey Estes, who's two
16:09
and two 5.53 ERA Angels are going with Rady Rowan, C
16:14
Contreras, who's won and O with a 3.9 OERA.
16:16
What have we seen across the market here?
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Well, just good movement in favor of the Halos.
16:21
I'm liking the Halos to get the sweep here, guys.
16:23
I laid it with the angels got the Angels actually at -125
16:27
earlier today was a sharp report right up that I had for vc.com.
16:30
You can always follow me at Josh under score insights.
16:33
But anyway, this game open LA as low as -115 they're -125 this
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morning. Now they're up to -135 S
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continued movement in favor of LA tells us that we got a lot of
16:44
respect and money continuing to pour in on the Angels moving
16:47
this number further in their favor.
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Now they're getting around 65% of bets in dollars.
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So both pro and Joe support as well as a 10 cent steam move in
16:54
their favor LA. I'm going to bank on their
16:56
offense. They're hitting on the year, 236
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with 319 runs scored. Oakland's only hitting 221 with
17:03
294 runs scored. System match that I love for
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this one is 2 bad teams take the favorite.
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If you look at 2 sub 500 teams playing each other, the favorite
17:12
is 165 and one 1160% with a 2% ROI on a bet against SDS on the
17:18
road. He's been bad on the road. 8
17:19
point O2 ERA at home, 2.79 ERA. Oakland by the way is 11 and 30
17:25
on the road. They are the second worst Rd.
17:28
team in baseball. Only the White Sox are worse at
17:30
8 and 33. Also keep an eye on the total
17:33
here. I did notice it ticked up.
17:34
There were some, there were some books here that were 9 / -, 115.
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So we do have a pretty good, we do have a pretty good forecast
17:44
here for Angel Stadium. It's going to be low 80s winds
17:46
blowing out 10 mph. But I'm just going with the the
17:49
Angels here. I like this steam in their favor
17:51
with no buybacks. So I'm on the angels -125 again,
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if you're playing it right now, you're closer to -130 or -135
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keep on cruising. Next one up, we are looking at a
18:02
match up. Cleveland and Baltimore now.
18:05
Baltimore broke my heart last night.
18:06
It was on them. Could not get it done.
18:08
That was just ridiculous back and forth scoring.
18:10
If you had the over, you had no sweat there.
18:12
I did notice a big move toward Baltimore today.
18:14
There was those like -165 Now they're like -200 So it looks
18:19
like there's a lot of money on Baltimore, but I'm also like, do
18:21
I want to lay -200 with Grayson Rodriguez against Cleveland was
18:24
really good. So to me, if you're making me
18:26
bet, I'd lean Baltimore based on the line move, but I think it's
18:29
a big, big price there against the really good team.
18:32
So what I'm going to do is I'm going to root for a lot of runs
18:35
tonight. Give me the over the OVA
18:37
Cleveland and Baltimore over nine at -115.
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Now what I like about this one is that the total open at 8 1/2
18:44
at some shops got immediately got bet up to 9 and there has
18:48
been some nines or there have been nines that ticked up to 9
18:51
1/2 and then came back down to 9.
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So really all movement liability has been either the same or up
18:57
in favor of the total 70% of bets, 80% of dollars are on this
19:02
over. So it tells us that basically a
19:03
pro and Joe bet split as well as a juiced up over opportunity.
19:07
The pitching matchup hopefully will lead to a lot of runs here.
19:10
Carlos Carrasco is going for the Guardians.
19:12
He's three and six with a 5.4 OERA in the month of June.
19:16
He has an ERA nearly of six. And Grayson Rodriguez is 8 and
19:20
three with a 3.82 ERA. Sounds pretty good, but he has
19:23
an ERA of nearly five in four June starts.
19:26
Also, two really good hitting teams here, if you look at the
19:30
Cleveland Guardians rating 246, they're #5 overall in terms of
19:34
runs, they're 12th. And batting average, Baltimore
19:37
is number one in terms of runs scored, 3254, that's 6th best in
19:41
baseball. So both teams are top five and
19:43
run scored top 12 in terms of batting average.
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And then little cherry on top. And if you're betting a total,
19:49
you at least have to be aware of what the weather is, especially
19:52
if it's obviously an outdoor game.
19:54
But weather looks pretty good for an over here tonight at
19:56
Camden Yards, which if you've never been, you got to get to
19:59
Camden Yards. My uncle and some of my
20:01
relatives live in Baltimore and me and my dad growing up, we
20:04
always take one one trip. We drive from from Massachusetts
20:07
down to Baltimore and see the family would go to this place
20:09
called Oh brekkies. My dad grew up in in Maryland in
20:13
Bethesda Chevy Chase and we would always spend like hours
20:17
eating crabs at oh brekkies. I don't even know if it's still
20:19
around anymore. It's right next to Camden Yards
20:21
where it used to be. Anyway, Camden Yards, beautiful
20:23
ballpark. Got to get there.
20:24
However, my point is that. The weather is important when it
20:29
comes to bedding totals, at least to be aware of kind of is
20:33
wind blowing in or out, what's the temperature, that sort of
20:35
thing. So tonight at Camden Yards, it's
20:37
going to be about 90°, pretty hot, dense air, you know, ball
20:42
traveling further or is it less dense?
20:44
I don't even know. I wasn't a very good science
20:46
teacher or science student back in the day.
20:48
But anyway, it's going to be hot and the wind is blowing out
20:50
about 10 mph blowing out to dead center.
20:53
So if you look historically when winds blowing out at least five
20:56
mph or more, the overs about 53% doesn't seem great, but you are
21:01
beating the 52.38% break even point.
21:04
So we have two pitchers with pretty high ER AS2 great
21:08
offenses. The totals been basically juiced
21:11
up and leaning over the whole time and we got hot temperatures
21:14
and wind blowing out. Add it all up here guys.
21:16
I think it's a worthwhile over here.
21:18
So let's try to get ten runs or more.
21:20
I'm on Cleveland, Baltimore, over nine runs at -115 last bet
21:26
of the night. We have a play here on a dog.
21:30
I'm going to see if a dog can bark for us.
21:32
I'm talking about the New York Yankees visiting the New York
21:35
Mets. So this is a 7:10 PM Eastern
21:37
Time, first pitch. I was actually actually kicking
21:40
myself for two bets that I did not make yesterday.
21:42
One was the Mets saw them move like things like plus 130 down
21:47
to plus 125. And then the other one that I
21:49
didn't play was Tampa Bay because they went from like plus
21:51
120 down to plus 1/10. They're both contrarian plays.
21:55
And that's the thing about sports betting.
21:56
Like, sometimes you have a bad night.
21:58
It's not just the games that you bet lose, but it's the ones that
22:00
you liked and for whatever reason laid off end up winning.
22:03
And you're like, why didn't I play that?
22:05
So anyway, why didn't I play the Rays or the Mets last night?
22:08
Those are mistakes by me. Anyway.
22:09
I'm not going to miss it tonight.
22:11
I'm going to root for the Mets once again as a dog.
22:14
Now, going into this one, the Mets are 38 and 39, but they're
22:17
playing good baseball recently. They won last night's opener
22:19
nine to seven as a + 125 home dog.
22:22
They almost blew it because they had a big lead early, but they
22:24
did cash Yankees. Meanwhile, 52 and 29, they are
22:28
sending out Luis Heel who's nine and two of the 2.77 ERA.
22:32
Mets are going with lefty Sean Minaya four and three 4.16 ERA.
22:37
Now, what are we seeing across the board here?
22:39
Well, a pretty standard sharp reverse line move against New
22:42
York Yankees in favor of the New York Mets.
22:45
Now, how do we know this? Well, based on the percentages,
22:49
bet splits as well as the line movement, so the Yankees open
22:52
this game around -140 Now the Yankees are getting as of right
22:56
now at DraftKings, 83% of money line bets.
23:00
However, even though 83% of bets are going Yankees, the Yankees
23:04
lines dropping, they went from -140 down to -130 So you got to
23:08
step back and say if everyone's betting the Yankees, they're a
23:10
huge public play tonight. Yankees say there's.
23:12
No way they can use the Yankees. Bet is there's no way they can
23:15
lose again. Tonight.
23:16
They got to win. However, 83% of bets on Yankees,
23:20
yet they went for -140 down to -130 So basically, why are they?
23:24
Why is the Yankees price getting cheaper and better and more
23:27
appealing? If there's such a popular bet
23:29
like getting 83%, you would think the Yankees go -140 up to
23:34
you know -150 -, 160. But no, it's actually going the
23:37
other way, dropping in favor of the Mets, even though the Mets
23:40
are only getting at this point 17% of bets.
23:45
So they are actually the most top contrarian play of the day.
23:50
Basically everyone here is betting Yankees yet Lions going
23:53
to Mets. So I like this reverse line
23:54
movement on the Mets. They have good correlative
23:57
betting. Dog high total 8 1/2 here.
23:59
More expected run scored leading to more variance and upset
24:02
opportunities. Little cherry on top but Nick
24:05
Lentz who's the home play dump. He's 59% to the home team
24:08
historically, so he's been one of the better home mumps for the
24:11
home team. Also the Mets, look at the last
24:13
10 games they're playing really well.
24:14
They're eight and two over the last 10.
24:16
They're hitting three O 4 with a 3.48 ERA.
24:20
Yankees are three and seven over the last 10, hitting only 214
24:23
with a six point O3 ERA. So Mets are playing pretty good
24:26
ball right now as a dog at home, getting some reverse line
24:29
movement. Look at the flip side here.
24:32
Louise heel don't remind me. I was on Louise Heel's last
24:35
start. He got blew up, he has a 5.5
24:37
OERA in four June starts and he just got lit up by the Orioles.
24:41
Seven runs in 1.1 innings pitched.
24:43
But to me, as a day to play everyone.
24:45
'S betting Yankees. The Yankees.
24:47
Yet Lions fall into the Mets. Give me the Mets here guys shop
24:49
round. I got the Mets at plus 110.
24:52
So Mets, Cleveland, Baltimore over over nine and the Angels.
24:56
Can we get two out of three and have a winning day?
24:58
That is our goal. So that about does it for
25:01
episode 64 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast, talking
25:05
baseball and talking NBA draft. Now I'm going to ask something
25:09
of you. I always like to get to this
25:10
part of the pod and say #1 thank you for listening.
25:13
It means so much to me that you take the time out of your day
25:15
to, you know, sit back and listen to some sharp contrarian
25:17
breakdowns. But #2 can you help me to grow
25:20
this podcast? All I need you to do is give
25:22
this podcast a 5 star review. It would go a long way to rising
25:26
up the ranks, getting some credibility.
25:28
Can you also follow this pod? There should be a tab to click
25:32
so that you get alerted once it comes out each day.
25:34
That would be very helpful as well.
25:36
And of course, if you want to recommend it to a friend, word
25:39
of mouth is always great for something catching on.
25:41
Secondly, if you enjoy the breakdowns and you want to learn
25:44
more about data-driven sports betting, well, guess what?
25:47
I wrote a book, you should probably check it out.
25:49
I'm very proud of it, but it's got everything I've learned in
25:51
the industry. How lines are set, how and why
25:53
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
25:55
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
25:58
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
26:01
included in the everything guide to sports betting.
26:03
Just type that in into into Amazon, pick up a copy for you
26:08
or a friend and I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or a
26:11
ginger ale when I see you at the sports book.
26:14
Of course, if you haven't done it yet, go sign up for a 7 day
26:17
free trial of Rhythm as well as a 7 day free trial of Juice
26:20
Reel, my two favorite data-driven sports betting apps.
26:23
The links are located within the podcast description of today's
26:27
pod and every pod that we have. But with rhythm going to give
26:30
you great AI backed data-driven picks and props as well as the
26:33
ability to create your own models and get system matches.
26:36
We're going to be leaning on WNBA for the summer as well as I
26:39
want to incorporate some golf get ready for obviously NFL when
26:42
that comes back. And then Juice Reel is great as
26:44
well. Actually was able to talk to my
26:45
buddy Ricky Gold who created Juice Reel earlier today.
26:49
And there are great opportunities in Juice Reel to
26:52
sync your sports books to the app.
26:54
Learn more about yourself as a better your strengths and
26:56
weaknesses. Sharp mush opportunities, the
26:59
top pro and Joe Betts. You know bet discrepancy plays
27:02
as well as arbitrage opportunities.
27:04
You know there's no such thing as a locker guarantee in
27:06
betting, but there actually is when it comes to arbitrage.
27:08
When you play basically the the both sides of a bet at different
27:11
books at different prices so that you guarantee you can come
27:14
out on top. Basically the you can win a cup
27:16
of coffee, win 3 bucks here 5 bucks there.
27:18
But if you grind that, it can be a decent money maker.
27:21
And then of course, you also get those robo Jackson AI backed
27:25
bets as well from juice reel. So go sign up for rhythm and
27:27
juice reel by clicking the custom link located within the
27:31
bio description of this podcast. Of course, that about does it
27:35
for episode 64, the all systems Gopod wish me luck in the
27:38
softball beer league championship game.
27:40
I heard that if we win tonight, we win some cool backpacks.
27:43
So that's that's what we're fighting for.
27:46
You know, when like the Super Bowl, you would get like, you
27:48
know, 300 grand if you win the Super Bowl, extra extra
27:50
incentive. Well, if you win the the
27:52
Cambridge, mass beer league softball, you get a you get a
27:54
backpack. So again, that's that's what
27:56
we're fighting for here tonight. But of course, whether I see you
27:59
at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
28:02
Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
28:04
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
28:07
Casino or MGM Springfield, and my neck of the woods in
28:10
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
28:12
true grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
28:14
number runners, where lowest juice possible is found at the
28:16
South Point. Sweat and Sharp can train plays
28:19
jumping in the stadium swim pool at Circa, wherever it may be.
28:22
You're going to walk up to me and you can show me a giant
28:24
stick at the rest. Rip up.
28:26
Recycle them just wasn't our night, but hey, you know you
28:29
have a night where everything goes your way.
28:31
I, I almost hinted at yesterday's pod that hey, we're
28:33
probably due for a night a night where nothing goes our way.
28:36
Sadly, it happened to be the very next night.
28:38
So let's see if we can start a new streak here tonight guys and
28:42
of course, let's see if we can cash some NBA draft props as
28:45
well as some MLB bets here for tonight.
28:48
So my parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrary and
28:51
bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
28:53
the house. Always be with the smart money,
28:55
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
28:57
Of course not. You can beat the closing line
28:59
and still lose the bet. But here's the thing, over the
29:01
course of the long haul, if we can consistently find games that
29:05
fit our model against the public with the house, with the pros,
29:08
flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
29:10
If we can do that, we're going to be successful long term
29:12
betters. So enjoy the sweats everyone
29:15
have a fantastic night. Let's enjoy the draft and some
29:18
MLB winners hopefully and and hopefully we can have a winning
29:23
day tonight as we steam into a big Thursday for tomorrow.
29:26
So I will see you on episode 65 tomorrow of the All Systems Go
29:30
Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
29:33
Have a good night everybody. Good luck.