Latest / The SEANC View / Snow Kidding: It's Fiscal Forecast Time!

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Snow Kidding: It's Fiscal Forecast Time! · The SEANC View

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Music.
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Hello, and welcome to another edition of the Scenic View podcast.
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For those following along at home, it's February 18th, and we are no closer
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to knowing what Bitcoin is.
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But we're here again. We're recording a little early this week because of the approaching weather.
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I still have my doubts on whether it'll happen or not because I'm from North
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Carolina, and it never really happens.
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Something happens. Okay, Eeyore. It just doesn't matter. Jonathan Owens,
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communications director, joined today by Suzanne Beasley, the government relations
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director, Artis Watkins, the executive director, and Sam Klein, our producer.
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And I changed it up a little bit for you this week.
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That was great. That was creative. Welcome in. Are you guys keeping warm from
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the approaching weather?
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I'm a hot flash waiting to happen. This is hot flash friendly weather.
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I feel like it wasn't that cold this morning. I came in without a jacket.
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I was good. See, that's why I have doubts.
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It's always like, oh, we're going to get so much snow, and then it's like 42
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degrees, and we don't get snow.
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I mean, I know that the temperature is like freezing temperatures.
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However, it's just not windy, or it doesn't feel like it's freezing.
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But for this part of the country, I was always told our best chance of snow
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isn't when it goes down to 20. Yeah. Yeah. Because it gets too dry.
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That our best chance of snow is right in that 31 to 33 degree.
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Right. And it's all about what's going on at 3,000 feet, not on the ground anyway.
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But that's your meteorology for today. I feel like it snows more at night.
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Like if it's a storm that comes during the night, we're going to get an accumulation.
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Otherwise, here in North Carolina, it's too hot.
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So, hey, Roxborough, we have something to say to you in Raleigh.
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Yeah, it always snows there, don't it? Always. We're so jealous of y'all.
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I wonder if there's like a reason for that. There's a magic line.
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I mean, good snow, like snowman snow. Yeah, Roxborough really does.
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It's not that far away, right?
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No, it's not at all. Well, the cone of what's coming can shift just a little
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bit and make all the difference in whether we're going to get freezing rain,
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sleet, ice, snow, a mix, just snow. It is our turn, though.
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Even Wilmington. And, you know, God bless y'all in Wilmington.
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I know that's a big, unusual deal.
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And y'all got some snow. But we need the snow. And Roxborough,
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y'all don't need the whole thing this time.
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I know the first time we got snow, I put that in quotation marks,
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this year was I went outside and I was like, this is not snow.
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I'm literally just getting rained on and it's really cold.
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My daughter did manage to make a snowman. So that was good. I think that was
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the first one she can remember.
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My mom tells her it's too cold to snow sometimes.
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It is too cold to snow sometimes. And we're both like, what does that mean?
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Like, is that a thing? Because that Arctic air is too dry.
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Yeah, too dry. Okay, cool. So the impending weather did force us to postpone
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our board meeting coming up this week, but we're going to have that in a few weeks.
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We didn't want to endanger everyone across the state coming into Raleigh.
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They're good enough to give us their time, so we didn't want to put them in
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danger. But we did have some things at the General Assembly happening.
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Are things on hold down there? Well, everything's kind of on hold now.
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Yesterday, all of the appropriations committees were set to meet.
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Fiscal research would go over their presentations for upcoming budget negotiations.
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So I was excited to hear what's going on. But all of those meetings were canceled.
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House rules met yesterday. Senate rules met this morning. And those folks are
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out, headed back home to safety.
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Question for everybody, though, Suzanne.
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So I was reading that Governor Stein kind of previewed a little bit what he
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was hearing about the potential for what the revenue forecast was going to look
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like, basically, and that they anticipate that the fiscal year revenue will
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be a little bit above the forecast.
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Not enough, like it was like, you know, half a million dollars or 500 million
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dollars, half a billion.
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So not enough to do tremendous things, but to do things.
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But that afterwards we would face what he described as, and we've heard it described
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this way before at the legislature, a fiscal cliff in the years out from that,
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based on a variety of factors all coming together.
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So are you hearing anything at the legislature to indicate, yeah,
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for this year things are stable?
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I haven't heard those specific words.
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Okay. But, you know, we're just getting started. And maybe we would have heard
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some of that yesterday if we'd have been able to hear the factual presentations
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from Fiscal. So stay tuned.
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Yeah, we've already talked about the uncertainty of how our revenue projections
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are going to look. So, I mean, we've talked about the storm.
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Well, and taxes have gone down every year for the last few years.
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So the question is, how much does that impact since that's your chief source
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of revenue as a state? What's that going to do?
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I know I've said this before, but, you know, legislators are still going to
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have to address the issues that were there before Helene, which is still pay
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raises, something in the pockets of retirees, the state health plan, my God.
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All of those things are still here and have to be addressed.
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So good if the revenue is a little up this year to go ahead and address that,
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but it may be problematic going forward.
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So Governor Stein said on Friday, Valentine's Day, that it doesn't have anything
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to do with Valentine's Day, but that was the date. You're just a romantic, John.
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While today's consensus revenue forecast for this year is positive,
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North Carolina is approaching a fiscal cliff.
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That was his statement. I think everyone knows that we're facing some.
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Well, you can't keep pulling in less and having to do more at a higher cost
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because everything obviously costs more just by virtue of time marching on.
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And then a number of things at play at the federal level are going to push costs
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increases down at the state level. we're already seeing that.
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So I think that's a pretty good forecast. That's a common sense forecast for sure.
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So you can see one side saying this is because these tax cuts are going to mean
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lower collections, while on the other side, we have this possible doze-type
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cut plan that may come out.
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Yes, I represent Torbis, one of the chairs of that committee.
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He's super excited about it. I've been following his commentary on X,
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also known as the Twitter, still here in this building. Who's...
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Other than Representatives Torbett and Kidwell, have they appointed anybody to this yet?
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So, Speaker Hall created a new select committee. The select committee on government efficiency.
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I think John just dubbed that SOGE. Yeah, we'll call that SOGE.
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It doesn't have a little dog mascot, I don't think. But what are some of the aims of that committee?
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It would be SCOGE. Oh, it would be committee SCOGE. Oh, that's got possibilities.
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It has a better ring to it. Yeah. All I'm thinking of is Scrooge.
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I mean, obviously, taxpayer issues. DEI, I think he's on the list.
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Yes. Speaker Hall put out a press release about this select committee on government
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efficiency that said the panel will look at policies on diversity,
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education and inclusion, excess state property and potential wastes of taxpayer dollars.
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That's pretty broad. Yeah, I don't know exactly what the look at policies on
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diversity, equity, education and inclusion.
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Diversity, education and inclusion. OK, usually it's equity.
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So that threw me. Excess state property.
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That one always gets a lot of attention because excess state property,
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who's your buyer going to be, is always, you know, we've been around there a
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long time and that's always becomes a question. Who's the buyer for the property going to be?
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You know, how do you make sure you get enough for it? And then potential wastes
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of taxpayer dollars. Top of the list right there.
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We got lots of suggestions of things, too. Yeah, we had a whole report a few
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years back about possible savings, and maybe we can update that and get that back out.
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We should update that anyway.
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It was a good report, and I think legislators received it well.
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But sadly, I think a lot of it would still be the same content.
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There'd be some new things. But over the years, we've heard about these DOT contracts.
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And I know that we've asked legislators to ask in committee.
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Hey, we're hearing from employees that say they've seen contracts to private contractors.
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When you see people working on the roads and you see a ton of trucks,
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sometimes people get upset. state employees aren't doing anything,
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but you'll see every kind of name on these trucks because most of it,
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we've downsized DOT so much over the years.
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Most of that's bid out to contract, and that's all well and good,
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except we've heard over the years, and legislators have too,
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from people who work there that these contracts have some crazy stuff in them that are super,
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super excessive and really grossly enrich people in some cases in ways that
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would make taxpayers fume.
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Sounds like the state health plan and the retirement system,
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the same fights we're having there. Right.
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And then super secret contracts that nobody can see. So we don't know what we're paying.
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Taxpayers are paying for that. If you just went through state contracts and
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had somebody actually look at them, oh my goodness. Ton of money.
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Yeah. So I guess we're at the beginning stages, obviously, with all the revenue
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talk and everything, we're still far from a budget. Oh, gosh, yeah. Yeah.
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So, a lot to find out. Well, I mean, I think that we've been clear about.
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The idea of looking into turning over every stone in state government,
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and I think the Select Committee on Government Efficiencies,
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I think it's said state and local government.
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I'm not sure how that'll work, but I guess it would have to be limited to the
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money state sends to locals.
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But we have said publicly, look, that's not a bad idea, but whether or not you're
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buying a certain number of pens for a $40,000 employee to use is what we fear
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everybody's going to look at.
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And in this case, it really is one where the pencils and paperclips aren't going
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to get you there. You need to start with the hundreds of millions and even billions.
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And that is in the contract. So we're really excited they're doing it.
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We've been waiting for years and years and years for somebody to do something like this.
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So we can't wait to talk to Representatives Torbett and Kidwell at length about
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what we're hearing from state employees.
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If they want to know where the waste is, get some state employees in there and
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they'll tell you straight up where the waste is.
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Well, I mean, we certainly know that there's no waste in staffing because we
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have a 25% vacancy rate, right?
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I mean, we can't cut any more staff, right? I mean, honestly.
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Well, here's the deal. You can cut everything you want, but you can't then turn around and provide.
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Yeah. And the only other option you have is to privatize things as you cut.
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It's been far more expensive. Yeah, there's nobody. You know,
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you could go back as far as you want in cases of municipal governments privatizing,
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state governments privatizing.
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It is almost never that long term they say that was a savings.
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In fact, almost always they say it's a risk to safety and a cost increase. But here's the kicker.
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The government retains the liability if the private contractor messes up and people get hurt.
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Guess who's also a defendant? Right. The state.
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So taxpayers pay for the goof ups. They just can't control the employees.
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You think about like something like private prisons, too. That just seems like a recipe for disaster.
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Well, I mean, we've been there, done that. We've done it in North Carolina.
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And they have to pull them back into, you know, in the state prisons,
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too. And we have some privatization in the prisons right now, certain aspects of it.
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I mean, say what you want about a prisoner, but you are responsible for them.
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You are. You know, I mean, you're holding them against their will.
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You are responsible for their... For human lives, yeah.
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And the human lives of the staff as well.
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And that's staff's big argument, always has been. You know, if I go in to fix
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something in the prison to do maintenance and I leave a screwdriver behind, it's just a mess up.
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And I'm not necessarily from that area. I don't know everybody there.
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It's a different duty of care, you know, that you're going to have if it's your
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neighbors that you're working with and your cousins and, you know,
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these rural communities where some of these prisons are.
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People don't just know each other from way back. Yeah.
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Oftentimes related by marriage or the duty of care is much bigger.
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They have a sense of responsibility to their co-workers that you just wouldn't
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get when you're doing it because you're paid by the job.
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And you're probably not going to get some sort of new AI software to protect your prisons, right?
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Have any of you guys ever watched Orange is the New Black?
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Yeah. Yeah. So I started that. I got it like four seasons in and I just couldn't do it.
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Yeah, I got tired of it. I feel like, yeah, and it really encapsulates what
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happens when you privatize because then they no longer had workers who cared about the prisoners.
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You no longer had them or the staff.
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Yeah. And they weren't trained properly. They were retired military who was
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using force and not understanding that this is a different situation than what they were in.
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And you your job is to run prisons for profit.
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You're not running it for charity if you're in business. So if you get the contract,
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you have a responsibility to your shareholders or to your board,
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to whoever, you know, you report that you're going to make sure you make money.
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And you can't do that by providing the kind of training that might be optimal or that you just can't.
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If you could, does everybody be doing it?
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Yeah. And I think they really highlighted how bad it can be because there was
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a riot in the season whenever it got changed to a private prison.
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I did find that show interesting that the storyline was. It was a very large
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riot in which prisoners and guards both were killed.
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But that's the kind of thing, and maybe they won't trot down that path at all.
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That's the kind of thing in the past when we've seen, oh, you know,
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we're going to streamline things.
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First thing anybody thinks is we're going to do more contracts when,
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in fact, nobody's ever looked at these contracts. So bringing it back full circle,
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thank heavens, somebody's finally going to look at these contracts and let the public know.
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And we're going to be the first in line to see. Yeah, I'm actually excited about this new committee.
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Anything else? There were a couple of bills filed that I thought were interesting.
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House Bill 124, adopt the official state cookie.
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You know that's going to be a knockdown, drag out in the base.
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Do you remember the fruit?
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Well, that's true. Or maybe it was just a fairy one. So the language says the Moravian Spice Cookie.
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Oh, I love those so much. I mean, who doesn't? They're so good.
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I've never heard of those. That's the only reason I went to the fair.
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Oh, they like melted away in your mouth? You go to the neighborhood?
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I've never heard of those. Oh, they're like super thin.
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They're so good. So good. I'm also not a big cookie person. I like making chocolate
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chip cookies every now and then. I do see some argument.
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I see some floor debate coming. It will be no matter.
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Snickerdoodle, y'all. Come on.
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I was going to say. Snickerdoodle was the official cookie of lunch rooms.
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And you know you'll have some contingents for, like, various fruits.
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Oh, it'll be out of control. It'll
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be out of control. It's going to be hysterical. I'm going to watch it.
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Yeah, something on light. Big strawberry is going to get involved.
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Big strawberry. I feel like a sweet potato is going to get involved,
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too. That's a big one. The pork industry.
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Bacon cookies. Sweet and savory. If you watch the baking shows,
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I'm telling you, the way to advance on these baking shows, should anybody ever
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go on one, slap some bacon on it and let you do that.
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Maple bacon? Bacon makes it better.
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And also Houseville 125. A dot star. Is there a Moravian star?
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Apparently so. Apparently so. This is impressive.
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The Moravians are on the move. Is Dan Falwell behind this?
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Maybe from up there. He's not Moravian, though. Is he working on Salem or something
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like that? No, his wife volunteers at Old Salem. But he's a Quaker.
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I see his fingerprints all over this.
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I am curious, though. Maybe check out if the Moravians would like to help with state employee raises.
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Yeah. They seem to have a lot of pull right now. To my list right now, yeah.
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I'm just confused on why we're focusing in the General Assembly getting a state
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cookie and a state star officially recognized when there are much bigger issues
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besides a cookie and a star? Oh, Sam. Oh.
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Sam. I'm talking about cookies and stars. Oh, well. We might cut that out. Cookies and stars.
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Does every other state have a state cookie and a state star?
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I mean, you know what? Probably. We don't want to upset people. Very likely.
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States like to have special things. People want to come to North Carolina I
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always thought that the state dog was... Hold up.
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Hold up. I'm sorry. But it just hit me.
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Alamance County is where they make those really good cookies like they give
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you on the plane. Oh, yeah. The Lotus.
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Yeah. Yeah. The Biscot. I love those cookies.
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Oh, I love those so much. Every time I get those on American Airlines,
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I do not eat it. I ask them for the pretzels. I want the pretzels.
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I love them. I'm not eating them on the plane. So Alamance might throw down over this.
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Actually, I know I'm interested in this. Florida Bates. This is going to be good. Big time.
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We're going to fill the gallery with cookie lovers. The gallery is filled with
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cookie lovers because us lobbyists like that. Speaking of, I have two thoughts.
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I always like the state dog, which is like the plot hound. Plot hound. It's pretty cool.
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I've never seen one of those before. It's not attractive, but it's very cool.
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I like hunting dogs like that. They're just big and gangly.
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Yeah. They have character. I technically have a hunting dog. Oh.
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He's part hunting dog. And then the other part is boxer, which just makes him a giant goofball.
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Say he's a goober. English Pointer. What does he hunt? His food?
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He's a Goober Pointer. English Pointers are like duck hunting dogs and retrievers.
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However, he would never do that. He hates the water.
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And then another cookie item I did buy my first box, Girl Scout cookies last
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week. Just one? Yeah, I only had $6.
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They're $6 now. Can you believe that? I have a neighbor across the street with
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a little girl. She sells them. I bought more than one.
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Listen. I bought the peanut butter chocolate ones. They're so good.
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And my wife was like, those are terrible.
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We should get the blah, blah, blah, blah. She had, like, opinions about it. Like, I mean, she.
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I got some of them. But it's still a deal compared to when my son was in Boy
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Scouts. Oh, yeah. Oh, the popcorn.
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Oh, that one is so expensive. Yeah.
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I mean, go Boy Scouts and I will buy the popcorn if any Boy Scout comes by the
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house selling it. But, Lord, now I'm going to have a bunch of them. That was good.
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You're on your own. They're going to find where you live. But I always felt
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kind of bad when he was selling that popcorn.
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Boy Scouts need their own lane. Like, Girl Scouts have really cornered the market on snack foods.
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Yeah, I mean, that's still not a bad deal for a box. They're the bomb. Those are good.
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And they used to be called Samoas, but they're the coconut delights or caramel delights.
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Love those. Love those So I
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bought some of all of them We should go buy a bunch of them today And just lock
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ourselves in the house Any legislators listening I know you're probably all
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listening to this podcast To stay in touch But if a legislator is listening
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What you should do is ask for sampling Of all,
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like a committee meeting Where there's a sampling of all cookies Maybe I'm just
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not a big cookie person That's true, they do need They need to really research
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this Public input, yeah Yeah. It's important.
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I'm just not a big cookie person, and that's why I don't understand why cookie talk is so important.
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We've had a section of this podcast unintentionally multiple times now where
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we talk about some kind of food or cooking or baking. I think we shouldn't do it before lunch.
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Well, are there any other bills besides cookies and stars? Those were the two
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that just jumped out at me.
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There's a bill, House Bill 142, that has to do with zero-based budgeting.
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Representative Blust is back in the General Assembly now.
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So he was the primary sponsor. What's that, like, balanced budget?
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Is that what that means? Okay. So we'll see.
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You know, like I said, the week's been cut short. And obviously we want all
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of them to get home safely to their neck of the woods as well.
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Speaking of getting home safely, thank you to all the DOT workers out getting the roads ready.
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I drove from Sanford to Raleigh today and all the roads have been bright and ready.
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Just from Garner to Raleigh, my car is white now.
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I'm really worried. My car is red. I'm worried about down east.
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I think I sent y'all this, like the ice is going to be really bad.
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That'll be worse than the snow. Yeah, how round is this going to be extreme,
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it seems like. And it's going to be so cold. Oh, it's not good.
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One night's going to be like 13.
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So if you have loved ones who are elderly, we're thinking about you, and stay warm.
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Check on your neighbors. Check on your neighbors, yeah, definitely.
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That leads us to our question of the week. John's Wucky Weird.
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Music.
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In honor of the impending snowstorm and the treacherous roads,
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I want to ask you guys where... Do y'all have a problem with me saying you guys? Is that offending?
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Always, every time I pause. It's a northern thing. Is it? It is.
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It's so random for Mr. Sanford. I know, but I would say y'all,
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but I don't want to sound like a hick, right?
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Oh, so much of my family says y'all. I'll just say y'all from now on. Just say y'all.
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So much of my family says y'all, but my grandparents from the north
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rubbed off on my mom who rubbed off on me and i always say
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you guys you guys use guys but john if you're saying
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it you guys yeah i mean what's the difference that's a southern you guys say
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yeah that you can bless y'all's heart yours too so our question this week is
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what is your most treacherous driving experience and i'll start with generally
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or in the winter throughout your life in winter weather though.
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It doesn't have to be but it makes sense since we've got incoming weather So
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I think, do y'all remember, I don't know, maybe 15 years ago, we had that gridlock.
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It was before Snowmageddon. Oh, it was. You're right. Yeah, it was.
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We were still in our old building.
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But there was a gridlock all over Raleigh because they had let all the schools out at the same time.
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Everybody's getting off work, trying to get home and get your kids.
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I got stuck on Highwoods Boulevard.
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My car started sliding backwards. So I turned my wheels. So I'd bump up against the curb.
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I finally ended up jumping my little car over the curb, got out and walked over
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to the Holiday Inn and got a room. Wow. That's crazy. Sure did.
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Sure did. My dinner that night was an apple from the basket in the front of
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the hotel in the lobby. I would go out, too, and everything.
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Nope. At least not the hotel.
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But, you know, got up the next morning and drove right home.
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I hope you were able to expense that hotel room.
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It was crazy. What about you, Artis? Mine was a snowmobile. Oh!
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Yeah, because they give you, what, like a 10-minute, here's how you ride it.
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And this was in Colorado where mountains don't look right. They're too big.
22:46
And the trees are too thick. It's just thick with trees everywhere.
22:50
And so there's these thin areas you'd go through with no trees.
22:53
And it's like, oh, yeah, stay between the trees, you know, so you don't wreck.
22:57
But they did not explain if you started going backwards what you were supposed
23:02
to do with this extremely heavy thing. Yeah. And it's some gas.
23:07
Well, you're lucky to flip over backwards if it's going down.
23:10
Yeah, well, it got going good enough on that hill that I'm giving it gas,
23:15
but it was just kind of too much momentum.
23:17
I was weighing it down, I guess. But eventually it did make it up the hill,
23:21
but I thought, this is for the birds. I don't know about it.
23:24
What about you, Sam? At the moment, my car, Henry, his name is Henry, he is falling apart.
23:29
So weather conditions have to be absolutely perfect for me to drive.
23:33
I can't drive in any weather.
23:34
If it's raining, it's going to fall apart. If it's snowing, it's going to fall
23:38
apart. I'm waiting for her to have, like, what are those things where you send money?
23:42
Oh, like a GoFundMe for the car. Just in a second.
23:48
But when I was in college, there
23:50
was one time that I was driving home from college with a very long drive.
23:53
So there was a chance that I would hit rain at one point or another or fog,
23:58
especially driving through Black Mountain.
24:00
And one time they both hit and I was driving through Black Mountain and it was so foggy.
24:05
I could not see maybe three foot eight in front of me. I had to go down this mountain.
24:10
And then once I got to like Greensboro, it was pouring so bad that I had to
24:14
pull over at a gas station and sit there for half an hour waiting for the rain
24:19
to lighten up because I couldn't see anything. Yeah, stressful drive.
24:22
Yeah, I think heavy rain is a bigger thing for us here in North Carolina. We get a lot.
24:27
And my parents were so concerned that they were calling me and they're like, where are you?
24:31
We don't like our babies to be driving in any weather. They were like,
24:36
you were supposed to be home an hour and a half ago.
24:38
And I was like, your dad could probably get like a Humvee and come get you, right?
24:42
He's got a Ford F-150. He would have came and got me if he needed to. He would cop her in.
24:46
It'd be cooler. It'd be cooler than the home. He would have attached the trailer
24:50
and been like, put your car on there.
24:51
Did we mention that we all picture your dad as like a superhero? I saw him.
24:56
I mean, we met him. Oh, cool. He's got the right look. That's it.
25:01
So I guess I have two answers. The first, the Snowmageddon from 2014,
25:06
I was trapped in that from leaving here, going home to Sanford,
25:10
and the I always got to give a plug to Sanford. You sure do.
25:14
And I did see the fire on Glenwood. I remember it took about six hours to get home.
25:19
It usually takes one. So that's not a huge one, but that was just like a monumental storm.
25:24
That's memorable, a six-hour trip to Sanford. Yeah.
25:27
But the one that I was thinking of when I came up with this question was when
25:31
I was like 10 or 11, we were in Blowing Rock where my aunts live.
25:35
And my mom and dad wanted to go up to the top of Grandfather Mountain, right?
25:40
And there was a storm approaching, apparently, but I'm 10 years old.
25:43
I don't know these things.
25:44
And so we get like halfway up the mountain and it starts like a huge ice storm
25:48
in my dad's old 1987 Chevrolet truck. And I was so terrified.
25:54
It's just completely traumatized, like sliding, sliding.
25:59
And there's like no, it's 1992, so there's no like guardrails anywhere.
26:04
And I still am traumatized. I still don't like going up mountains like that
26:08
because of that one drive. That would do it.
26:11
But, yeah, we actually made it to the top. I don't know why.
26:14
Why didn't we just turn around and go back?
26:16
It's really hard. Once you're starting up that, it's very hard to turn around.
26:22
And plus it was like the 80s and the 90s. So everybody's like,
26:25
oh, we're going to be fine. We're going to be.
26:28
And my dad's truck didn't have four-wheel drive either. Did y'all prance on
26:32
out on the Mile High Bridge? No, but my mom was so mad at my dad.
26:36
The whole way turn his name oh
26:39
get back to say good tower I'm still traumatized by
26:42
that so that's question of the week this week I guess we
26:45
need to we've created an email address for our
26:48
members to contact us we're going to call it
26:51
podcast at scenic.org if you have anything you want to contact us about if you
26:56
have any cost savings we can share with legislators who are doing the scoge
27:00
effort as we'll call it anything at all you want to contact us about please
27:04
email us It's a podcast at scenic.org. You're the experts.
27:08
Tell us where. Yeah, we'd love that input. State employees tell us where there's waste.
27:14
So if you want to answer some of our questions of the week, we would love to
27:17
hear your answers. Yeah, that's fun.
27:20
And we put this purposefully at the end of the episode. So you had to listen
27:24
to it to get it the first time.
27:26
So whoever sent us the first email gets a scenic swag piece of some item with
27:32
the scenic logo on it, except Cliff Johnson.
27:35
It's always hers Cliff you have enough It's like you said,
27:41
Thanks for listening this week And we'll be back next week Hey Roxborough Enjoy
27:45
the snow We're all coming Come visit.
27:50
Music.