Latest / Combat Veteran News / Intel Leak: Putin Preparing 500k MASS MOBILIZATION

Transcript

Intel Leak: Putin Preparing 500k MASS MOBILIZATION · Combat Veteran News

0:00
It's an established fact at this point
0:01
that the Russian manpower crisis is
0:04
really putting the screws to Vladimir
0:06
Putin's war effort. The only question
0:08
is, how can he solve it? What can he do
0:12
to get more men into the field and
0:15
resolve his economic crisis at the same
0:17
time? Sounds like an impossible task,
0:19
but Vladimir Putin has escaped from
0:22
worse political crises before. Just what
0:25
solution is he gearing up for? Well, it
0:28
looks pretty bad. Let's talk about it.
0:31
So,
0:33
Zelenskyy is warning that Putin plans to
0:36
mobilize up to half a million Russians
0:39
and send them into the war.
0:41
Specifically, they estimate that between
0:43
300,000 and 500,000 people possibly will
0:46
be mobilized in late September or early
0:48
October. Now, I I want to point out that
0:51
this actually wouldn't require much of a
0:53
change at all from the actual Russian
0:56
government because, remember, Russia is
0:58
a country with mandatory service. And
1:02
what has happened thus far in the war is
1:05
that under Russian law, which Vladimir
1:08
Putin personally dictates, the a
1:11
conscript who is doing their mandatory
1:13
service can only be used to defend
1:16
Russian sovereign territory. And that
1:19
any individuals that fight in Ukraine
1:21
are volunteers who sign contracts. Now,
1:24
the pool of conscripts is a great source
1:28
of contract fighters because, well,
1:31
think about it. Often times in Russia,
1:33
individuals who are stuck in the
1:35
conscription pipeline are often times
1:37
very poor, very young, and often for the
1:40
first time away from their families.
1:42
It's pretty easy to coerce them to say,
1:44
"Listen, you got a steady paycheck,
1:46
maybe for the first time in your life
1:48
over the last 18 months. Plus, the
1:49
Russian military has just trained you in
1:51
how to fight. Why not sign a contract,
1:54
make 10 times as much, and just fight in
1:58
Ukraine.
1:59
It's a key source of manpower for the
2:02
Russian war effort, but
2:05
even now conscripts are getting wise to
2:07
the realities of the war and those units
2:12
that take the highest casualties are the
2:14
ones that receive the most young
2:15
conscripts. So, uh
2:18
it is not the source of manpower that it
2:21
used to be for the Russian government.
2:25
And
2:26
that's why it seems highly likely that
2:29
Putin is going to be actually conducting
2:32
a mobilization. Now, mobilization is a
2:34
third thing. It's not contract service
2:37
and it's not being a conscript.
2:38
Mobilization means that everyone who
2:40
completed their mandatory military
2:42
service as a conscript is now getting
2:45
activated and then sent to Ukraine. Now,
2:48
Putin tried this once before in 2022
2:51
when he did so, Russia experienced an
2:55
unprecedented
2:56
amount of both political upheaval, but
2:58
also brain drain as Russia's most
3:00
productive citizens, young men with
3:03
significant future prospects, fled the
3:06
country. And those those men that fled
3:09
were often times ones that Vladimir
3:11
Putin's economy needed. Not only would
3:14
he have preferred to have young military
3:15
age men
3:16
there for the war effort, but the
3:19
Russian economy actually just needs
3:20
productive workers. And the individuals
3:22
that fled the country were
3:24
disproportionately likely to be
3:27
ones who are able to work abroad. Uh
3:29
think like uh a a data analyst, a a
3:33
physician, uh a
3:36
uh uh
3:37
skilled tradesman. Those kind of
3:39
Russians who are badly needed inside of
3:41
Russia to work and pay taxes fled the
3:44
country and have not returned by almost
3:46
all accounts. And so,
3:49
the
3:51
the unpopularity of the first wave of
3:54
mobilization has stopped Vladimir Putin
3:56
from engaging in a second. And also, you
3:59
should store that in the back of your
4:01
mind because when Putin makes these
4:03
preposterous threats about nuclear war
4:05
or the full might of the Russian
4:06
military, remember, this is a guy who
4:08
hasn't even activated his regular normal
4:11
reservists, right? Even that is too
4:13
politically untenable for him. So, it's
4:16
unlikely that he's going to take some
4:17
even more absurd escalatory action.
4:21
But now it seems like mobilization might
4:23
be on the table. Zelenskyy is claiming
4:25
that the Kremlin may be expanding their
4:27
mobilization in September or early
4:29
October. This corresponds, of course,
4:32
with Russian elections that are likely
4:34
to occur on September 21st.
4:37
Now, remember, Russian elections are not
4:40
really competitive in the sense that you
4:42
or I would think of them.
4:43
Sometimes there will be
4:47
multiple Putin-approved candidates that
4:49
like kind of compete with each other,
4:51
but mostly what they're competing for is
4:53
access to power. They don't really
4:56
compete for
4:58
with different ideological bends because
5:01
the Russian State Duma exists primarily
5:04
to write the laws Vladimir Putin wants
5:06
to bring into existence. He has direct
5:09
personal control over the laws of the
5:11
Russian Federation. And when he wants
5:13
something to happen, he simply instructs
5:15
his Duma deputies to write laws to to
5:18
allow it to occur. This is interesting
5:20
because as we talked about with the the
5:23
conscripts, a great example is that when
5:26
Putin first invaded Ukraine, what he
5:28
said was that he was liberating an
5:31
independent country, the DPR and LPR.
5:34
These are the two oblasts, Luhansk and
5:36
Donetsk oblast, in Ukraine. Vladimir
5:38
Putin at first said, "Hey, we are
5:40
liberating
5:42
independent countries that just the
5:43
pesky West doesn't want to recognize."
5:46
And the State Duma said, "Yes, we
5:47
authorize Vladimir Putin to liberate our
5:49
neighbors, to save our neighbors from
5:51
the oppressive Ukrainian regime."
5:53
And then, about a year later,
5:55
Vladimir Putin said, "Actually, the DPR
5:57
and LPR, they're they're part of Russia.
6:00
They're part of Russian sovereign
6:01
territory." And the State Duma
6:03
immediately
6:04
right on cue, reversed course and said,
6:06
"Oh, we now annex these countries that
6:08
were independent. Now, we're annexing
6:10
them. Now, they're part of Russia."
6:11
Right? But obviously, that doesn't even
6:14
make sense either because, well,
6:16
conscripts should be fighting and
6:18
defending the motherland, right? But
6:20
they're not. So,
6:22
what gives?
6:23
And it's because obviously,
6:25
these laws are just sort of performances
6:27
put on by Vladimir Putin and
6:29
rubber-stamped by the Duma.
6:31
They don't carry any real legal
6:33
meaningful weight inside the country.
6:36
So,
6:37
the State Duma's going to greenlight
6:39
whatever they want, and those elections
6:40
will happen on the 21st. And then,
6:44
that
6:45
uh after the votes the votes are
6:48
tabulated, uh
6:50
Putin will announce his mobilization.
6:52
And
6:53
again, this isn't about the election,
6:56
but the election can become a
6:58
opportunity for opposition figures to uh
7:02
galvanize
7:04
discontent among the Russian public,
7:05
right? It's kind of like a
7:08
well, it's like a it's it's a fake
7:10
election,
7:11
but it's it really draws in a contrast
7:15
uh how
7:17
uh politically unfree Russia is. And,
7:19
you know, when you do something really
7:21
unpopular,
7:22
it risks getting people riled up
7:24
needlessly. So,
7:27
the
7:28
uh Ukrainian president is estimating
7:29
that a potential call-up could mobilize
7:31
about 3 to 500,000 people. That would
7:34
effectively increase by about 40 ish
7:37
percent uh the number of Russians in
7:41
Ukraine if that were to be successful.
7:43
Now, training Remember, the Russian
7:45
infrastructure to train 300,000 500,000
7:47
people already exists. They do it every
7:50
every 6 months.
7:51
And so,
7:53
this would not be that hard. It would
7:55
just be tough to get them to the front
7:57
lines. But remember, every single month
8:00
Ukraine Russia is likely experiencing a
8:03
net loss of 5 to 7,000 troops. And
8:09
in Ukraine, so the total number of
8:11
troops deployed in Ukraine is actually
8:12
going down. That's a huge [snorts]
8:15
crisis for a military. You really can't
8:17
afford to lose that many troops before
8:20
you start cannibalizing your formations
8:23
and degrading your combat power.
8:26
Now, Zelenskyy says, "Listen, they're
8:27
going to be poorly trained or untrained
8:29
people thrown onto the battlefield.
8:31
They're going to take heavy losses."
8:32
This is almost all true. But that will
8:36
give
8:37
uh Putin a short-term breathing room.
8:41
Because he has a two major problems that
8:44
he is trying to solve with this if he
8:46
does this mobilization. In fact, one of
8:48
the reasons I think mobilization is
8:49
going to occur is simply because the
8:51
problems Vladimir Putin is facing most
8:53
acutely will all be solved with a mass
8:55
mobilization.
8:57
What are they? The first is that the
8:59
special military operation has become
9:01
untenably expensive. The Russian
9:03
government is operating on a budget
9:05
deficit. Uh it is swiping the credit
9:08
card effectively to fund the special
9:10
military operation. And a huge part of
9:12
that is these exorbitant bonuses that
9:14
are required to attract fighters to sign
9:18
up as contract soldiers.
9:20
You could save a lot of money if instead
9:23
you simply forcibly mobilize these
9:25
troops and said, "Listen, you're just
9:27
going to be earning conscript level pay
9:29
if any pay at all." That would reduce
9:31
probably my estimate would be 90% of
9:34
salary and benefits payments that the
9:36
Russian government would have to make
9:38
and would greatly reduce the cost of the
9:40
special military operation.
9:42
You also
9:44
have a problem of
9:47
inflation in the Russian Federation,
9:50
which is also caused in part. Some of it
9:52
is because of shortages of things like
9:54
gasoline. Can't imagine how that
9:56
happened, but also because of these
9:58
exorbitant wages paid to service
10:01
members, right? And their families when
10:03
those service members are liquidated.
10:05
But also because of the exorbitant
10:07
military spending, it's required them to
10:10
pay workers really high wages both to
10:13
ensure that they
10:15
work and say a Shahed factory
10:18
where they're risking their lives.
10:20
There's a premium for that. Plus, they
10:21
just have to compete with the local
10:23
recruiter. And so, that has pushed wages
10:26
up faster than actual Russian economic
10:29
productivity.
10:31
And it may also
10:34
And so, by by mobilizing, you're going
10:36
to actually pull some of those high-wage
10:39
workers out of the workforce. It's going
10:40
to depress wages and make the cool
10:43
Russian inflation. It's also because the
10:46
Russian economy is slowing down, it may
10:48
have a surplus of military-age men who
10:52
cannot work, right? Particularly
10:53
industries like construction and
10:55
agriculture are very male heavy in
10:56
Russia. So, something has to absorb
11:00
these excess workers, and a mobilization
11:02
will do exactly that. And so, it's going
11:05
to likely it's going to help give
11:07
Vladimir Putin breathing room
11:10
in a lot of different aspects of his his
11:13
war effort. That's why I think you're
11:15
really likely to see it, but there's
11:17
other solutions that Vladimir Putin is
11:19
also toying with. Notably, this one
11:21
here. And because it is reportedly,
11:24
according to Ukrainian intelligence,
11:26
also asking North Korea for an
11:28
additional
11:30
influx of troops. Now, you might recall
11:33
that the North Koreans provided about 10
11:37
to 15,000 troops during the Ukrainian
11:40
incursion into Kursk. And I think what
11:43
happened is that North Korea seemed to
11:46
have said, "Listen,
11:47
we are not going to invade a third
11:48
country,
11:50
but we will absolutely help Russia
11:51
defend
11:53
its own territory." And so, the North
11:55
Koreans, almost certainly with Chinese
11:57
tacit approval,
11:58
deployed 10 to 15,000 troops. And at
12:01
first, the North Koreans
12:03
fared really terribly in the
12:04
battlefield.
12:05
But, they very quickly adapted and
12:08
actually did some innovations that
12:11
spread throughout the battlefield. I eat
12:13
the idea that you can use a small arm
12:15
rifle to shoot down an FPV drone. This
12:17
is something that really wasn't
12:19
considered to be
12:21
a viable strategy. It was considered a
12:22
desperation move. But, in fact, as
12:24
they've shown, it actually can work. The
12:26
North Koreans were able to pull it off
12:28
as a part of their their tactical
12:30
doctrine. And so, the North Koreans in
12:32
Kursk were very effective, and the North
12:36
Koreans initially denied that their
12:37
troops had been there at all. The
12:39
Ukrainians said, "No, we really think
12:41
they are. These are fake documents."
12:43
But, then what was interesting is that
12:45
the United States intelligence apparatus
12:47
said, "No, these really are North Korean
12:48
troops out here."
12:50
And what consequences did North Korea
12:52
face for sending their troops to expand
12:55
this war?
12:56
Nothing. They faced no consequences, no
12:58
additional sanctions, the
13:01
performative condemnations by European
13:03
countries. And so, the North Koreans
13:05
likely have turned around and said,
13:06
"Listen, we we can publicly admit this.
13:08
I mean, this is a real photo, by the
13:09
way, of Kim Jong-un. He constructed a a
13:13
memorial to the hundreds of troops that
13:16
were killed in Kursk.
13:19
Here they are. This is this is North
13:20
Korean troops, right? This is modern
13:21
battlefield armor.
13:23
This is him really
13:26
publicly not just acknowledging, but
13:28
praising the fact that they went, and
13:30
here they are literally, a North Korean
13:31
flag and a Russian flag, uh praising the
13:33
troops that went there and fought in
13:35
this
13:37
military operation.
13:38
And so, you have the North Koreans
13:40
saying, "Listen,
13:42
we went and did this. The international
13:43
community didn't have anything to say
13:45
about it. They just kind of took it."
13:47
And he says, "Great. So, now we would
13:49
really consider helping you again.
13:52
And maybe this time it'll be more
13:54
troops,
13:55
again, gaining more combat experience,
13:58
uh and likely
13:59
they are going to
14:01
do so with a fighting in Ukraine, where
14:03
where
14:04
again, North Korea says, "Listen,
14:06
the international community didn't do
14:07
anything to us when we fought in Kursk.
14:09
They're not going to do anything to us
14:11
when they fight in occupied Ukraine."
14:14
And 30,000 troops would be a massive
14:16
difference. It's the equivalent of about
14:17
1 month's worth of recruitment for the
14:20
Russian uh
14:22
Federation.
14:23
And so,
14:25
the
14:26
uh
14:28
they uh Zelenskyy's reporting actually
14:30
that there are now receiving stations in
14:32
Voronezh Oblast. This is a a huge deal
14:35
because again, the North Koreans,
14:38
remember, these green troops, well,
14:40
they're not as green as they were
14:41
because they have learned a bunch from
14:44
those North Koreans that survived the
14:46
fighting in Kursk. Those North Koreans
14:47
have returned. They have instilled in
14:50
their brethren new doctrine, new combat
14:53
tactics. Now they're going to arrive,
14:55
let's
14:56
into Russian reception areas, uh 80%
14:59
familiar with modern combat. They're
15:01
going to know what a drone is, they're
15:02
going to know how to maneuver, they're
15:03
going to know how to protect themselves
15:04
from observation, right? The Russians
15:06
will give them a little bit of a
15:06
battlefield update, they'll talk to them
15:08
about the AI drones and new tactics and
15:11
changes to the battlefield, but again,
15:13
it's far easier to move the North
15:14
Koreans from 2024 to 2026 than it is to
15:18
move them from 1960 uh 1964 to 2026.
15:23
And [snorts]
15:25
but again, North Korea doesn't do this
15:27
stuff for free. They want ballistic
15:29
missile technologies. They're going to
15:30
want a lot more. Um, they're going to
15:32
want rocket technologies. They're also
15:33
going to want, um, uh,
15:36
um, uh, economic assistance, right?
15:38
They're going to demand a lot from
15:39
Russia because they know Russia is
15:42
backed into a corner.
15:44
And
15:46
the, uh,
15:51
the,
15:53
North Koreans reportedly, again, sent a
15:56
bunch of I have been routinely sending
15:58
troops kind of rotating through, not
16:00
necessarily doing combat actions, but
16:02
doing a lot of of rear area work, um,
16:05
demining in Kursk, for example. Uh,
16:08
so, this is a really, really troubling
16:12
sign. Again, and I think it's also what
16:15
you should take away from this is that
16:18
this is much more international than we
16:21
are acknowledging. This is, remember,
16:23
North Korea relies entirely on China,
16:26
its patron.
16:27
They are not going to send troops
16:28
without tacit Chinese approval. Uh, you
16:31
also have the
16:33
Russian Shahed, the Russian grant is a
16:36
Shahed drone. They are Iranian. And the
16:38
Iranians have purchased large amounts of
16:40
Russian air defense systems. This has
16:42
been a cooperation and we're seeing an
16:44
emerging axis, an anti-American axis,
16:47
um,
16:48
that are committed to destroying the
16:50
West. And the ignorance with which the
16:53
West seems to be aware of this, again,
16:55
look no further than the fact that that
16:58
Putin
16:59
brought in a third country into this
17:01
conflict on the ground and then has the
17:04
gall to seethe and cope and rage when he
17:07
claims NATO forces have it out for him.
17:10
Like, it's absurd. It's But it's not
17:12
absurd. It's It's realpolitik. It's
17:15
Vladimir Putin doing what he can get
17:17
away with and every time he escalates
17:19
the Europeans respond with nothing. Look
17:22
no further than the fact that in the
17:23
last 3 days three separate drones have
17:26
violated NATO airspace and every time a
17:29
Romanian F-16 shoots the drone down,
17:31
sure, but you have to understand how how
17:35
that drone was getting shot down anyway.
17:38
Like you have to think this isn't
17:41
Vladimir Putin faces no consequences.
17:43
The Romanian president said, "Quote, it
17:44
is inadmissible and intolerable for the
17:46
Russian Federation to continue violating
17:48
Romania's airspace, which is also NATO
17:50
and European Union airspace. Such
17:51
actions are unacceptable and we treat
17:52
them with the utmost seriousness
17:53
together with our allies."
17:55
But I want but but but here's the thing.
17:57
It's unacceptable, but it's happened 3
17:59
days in a row and you've accepted it
18:01
each time.
18:02
Every time
18:03
they come in it's
18:05
So at what point when does when does the
18:08
when do you deliver consequences?
18:11
It's like me telling my kids, "Hey, it's
18:12
unacceptable to hit your brother." But
18:14
every time she does it I simply move her
18:17
out of the way. If she hasn't faced
18:19
consequences, she's going to keep doing
18:21
it. Why would she stop? What incentive
18:23
does she have to stop?
18:24
What incentive does Putin have to
18:26
continue hitting NATO airspace? None.
18:28
None.
18:30
They get away with it every time. They
18:31
face no negative consequences.
18:33
And they're allowed to escalate the war
18:35
however and whenever they want.
18:37
It's
18:38
ghoulish, ridiculous.
18:41
But it makes perfect sense. It is
18:42
perfectly strategic. That is the thing.
18:45
You have to understand Vladimir Putin is
18:47
a strategic thinker.
18:49
He is a thinker and he moves
18:50
strategically based on a worldview that
18:53
he shares that is increasingly
18:54
disconnected from reality.
18:57
But
18:58
within that reality, he is making deeply
19:01
rational choices.
19:02
And unfortunately, the most rational
19:04
choice right now for him is clearly
19:06
escalation.
19:07
Anyway, guys, if you feel like Vladimir
19:08
Putin like you need to lock in, get it
19:10
done,
19:12
don't invade your neighbor, man. That's
19:13
not cool. But, you know what is cool?
19:15
Caffeine. Getting caffeinated. That's
19:18
why we I created Strike Gum, right? It's
19:19
a favorite of
19:21
everybody from elite gaming streamers to
19:24
Ukrainian drone pilots to athletes to
19:26
very tired YouTuber dads. Go to
19:28
strikegum.com.
19:29
It's got no sugar. It's made in the USA.
19:31
It's veteran owned. It's superior to an
19:33
energy drink in every way. You can also
19:34
get some on Amazon. Huge thank you to
19:36
our colonel tier members. Hit subscribe
19:38
if you haven't. Chris, Charles, Kevin,
19:39
Brent, Andres, Jim, John, CPC, Leonis,
19:41
Gabriel, Brendan, Alfred, Peter, as well
19:42
as our lieutenant tier folks. We
19:44
appreciate you and we'll see you.
19:45
Cheers.