Latest / 3 and Out with John Middlekauff / NFL & CFB Best Bets: NFL's Playoff Weekend & College Football Playoff's National Championship Game

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NFL & CFB Best Bets: NFL's Playoff Weekend & College Football Playoff's National Championship Game · 3 and Out with John Middlekauff

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: The volume.
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  Speaker 2: What is going on Everybody, John middlecop three and our
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: podcast How Are We Doing? Presented by my friends at
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Zone Pouches. Today we will be talking to Stucky. We
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: recorded on Wednesday. If you're listening to this, either headed
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: to the hospital in the hospital, maybe have a kid
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: by now. Maybe I don't yet. We'll see if we
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: get pushed back for emergencies, but we are. I don't
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: mean our emergency. I'm just saying if C section, if
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: there are other emergency bursts, we get pushed back. So
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  Speaker 2: it's a fluid situation. But we'll have Stucky on today
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  Speaker 2: talk about the games. We'll look back a little bit
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  Speaker 2: and talk about at the end the College Football National Championship.
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  Speaker 2: Also up on Netflix, Stucky's Netflix debut, and yeah, so
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: make sure you check that out. We have all of
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: our content up there obviously. If you're listening audio, Spotify, Apple,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the podcast. If you listen on Collins, I
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: appreciate you doing that. Tomorrow we recorded with Josh Pate.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: It looks like ESPN is about to build a show
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  Speaker 2: around the guy Fellow ball Brother. That will be tomorrow
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: and yeah, it's a game plan for the week. So
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: let's just you guys know him. He's here every week.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: Let's dive into my main man, Stucky. Okay, we've been
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  Speaker 2: doing this every week for years. For those of you
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  Speaker 2: watching that are new to this, this is my good
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  Speaker 2: friend Stucky. He is a fellow degenerate gambler, works for
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  Speaker 2: the Action Network. You can find him all over the place,
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  Speaker 2: big bets on campus, guys, dialed in on college football
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  Speaker 2: and basketball, and knows the National Football League from a
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  Speaker 2: gambling standpoint as well as anyone I've ever been associated with.
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  Speaker 2: So we do this all throughout the football season. And
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: he's he just had a baby as well, So he's
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: got a new baby, he's got basketball season in full swing,
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  Speaker 2: he's got the NFL playoffs. Probably slept, my guess would
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  Speaker 2: be over under eight hours this entire week and going
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  Speaker 2: right into a massive, massive weekend for the National Football League. Stuckey,
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  Speaker 2: how are you holding up?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah under on that and yeah, everything's going well. Had
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  Speaker 1: a rough I had a rough Wildcard weekend. I loved,
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  Speaker 1: loved my card and I mean JAG's first half was
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  Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets of the year, and Jack's
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  Speaker 1: first half money line had him I think plus one
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  Speaker 1: h two closed like minus one forty five, They missed
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  Speaker 1: a field goal, Parker Washingt gets hurt, Trevor Lawrence's shin
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  Speaker 1: goes down. That was rough. The Packers were one of
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  Speaker 1: my favorite bets. That was absolute pain. It was only
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  Speaker 1: the second time in playoff history a team has scored
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  Speaker 1: twenty five or more points in the four, fourth quarter
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  Speaker 1: ind or overtime in a fifteen plus point comeback. The
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  Speaker 1: other was the Falcons against the Patriots and the Super Bowl,
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  Speaker 1: or I should say the Patriots against the Falcons super
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  Speaker 1: Bowl when they were down twenty eight three. That was
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  Speaker 1: one of my biggest losses ever. I had the Falcons
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  Speaker 1: plus four and a half, one of the most painful
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  Speaker 1: losses and one of the biggest financially. So that was
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  Speaker 1: like reliving that.
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  Speaker 2: So how cocky were you at twenty eight three that day?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah? I thought it was over. And I mean this
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  Speaker 1: sequence of events that had to happen. I mean that
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  Speaker 1: this is what Bears games have been like all season.
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  Speaker 1: But you had McManus missing kicks left and right the
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  Speaker 1: fourth and eight that was the game you. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: you have to give Caleb credit for that throw on
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: fourth and eight, But if they don't call the false start,
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  Speaker 1: the ball snaps over his head. The game's over if
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  Speaker 1: they don't convert that fourth and eight. The Packers of
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  Speaker 1: the ball at midfield, up eleven with six to go.
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  Speaker 1: But yeah, I thought it was over. And then when
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  Speaker 1: they scored again, then I got a little nervous. Then
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  Speaker 1: when I scored again to go up eleven, I thought
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  Speaker 1: it was over. But then after that fourth and eight,
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  Speaker 1: I was like, you never know this Bear team. I've
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  Speaker 1: seen this story. And then they get the two point conversion.
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  Speaker 1: The Packers miss more kicks. I mean, if you think
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  Speaker 1: about it, if they just the margins are so thin
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  Speaker 1: in the NFL playoffs from a betting perspective and just
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  Speaker 1: in how these games are decided. And I mean the
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  Speaker 1: Jags they have an all Pro kicker, they make twenty
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  Speaker 1: kicks in a row. They miss a kick at the
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  Speaker 1: end of the first half, which is like a shock
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  Speaker 1: you miss even though it was from like fifty two. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: that ends up being the margin the Packers if they
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  Speaker 1: make any of those kicks, if Ecvanness makes any of
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  Speaker 1: those kicks at the extra point or any of the
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  Speaker 1: field goals, they miss a kick at the other the
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  Speaker 1: first half too. Then at the end when they're at
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  Speaker 1: the twenty yard line, I mean McManus would probably miss
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  Speaker 1: it again, but you could kick a fuel goal either
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  Speaker 1: tied or win it, and you don't need a touchdown there.
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  Speaker 1: So the margins are very thin. And then I had
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  Speaker 1: the Chargers, which I was just dead wrong on. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: Herbert was. He was bad, horrifying. I mean, you could
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  Speaker 1: blame the offensive line, you could blame the game plan.
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  Speaker 1: I don't care like that. In the first half, he
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  Speaker 1: had pockets to throw, he had clean pockets, and he
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  Speaker 1: couldn't make the throws. He looked gun shy. He looked
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  Speaker 1: like a rookie. I mean, that was the worst I've
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  Speaker 1: ever seen him play. And credit to the Patriots, apparently
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  Speaker 1: they were the charters. Offense was confused, but Herbert misthrows,
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  Speaker 1: missed wide open guys and just looked gunshy. So yeah,
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  Speaker 1: it didn't get much right on the weekend. Did have
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  Speaker 1: some Eagles forty nine ers under which I had a sweat.
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  Speaker 1: But yeah, a couple of bad breaks, but that that'll happen.
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  Speaker 2: What were you saying? A couple situations the Jags game
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  Speaker 2: when they only have the one time out and there's
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  Speaker 2: a minute left. Would you have knelt the ball, made
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  Speaker 2: him burn it and then you know, get it down
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  Speaker 2: or I guess they were out of timeout, so you
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  Speaker 2: kneel the ball, you get it to like what thirty
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  Speaker 2: second range to be safe, to give yourselves a little time,
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  Speaker 2: I thought, And I get it, you're on the road.
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  Speaker 2: But I it's like, man, this this team is a
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  Speaker 2: great kicker. The kickoff rule now shortens the field. I'm
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  Speaker 2: all for. I get it. You can't get tricky, but
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  Speaker 2: you have the best player you know on the planet
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  Speaker 2: who's dominating this game. The touch push had been working
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  Speaker 2: or the josh push or whatever you want to call it.
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  Speaker 2: That that was a pretty big risk by McDermott. That
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  Speaker 2: ended up paying off because they get the pick whatever
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  Speaker 2: a couple of plays later. But I was like, damn,
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  Speaker 2: that's that was crazy.
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  Speaker 1: I thought one thousand percent. I tweeted it out immediately.
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  Speaker 1: I said, you have to quick knee and then score.
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  Speaker 2: What would you run it down to like twenty five Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Twenty five seconds? Because you've also had a time out.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, so they had a couple.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, So like time was it an issue for you?
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  Speaker 1: But just think about it from a probability standpoint, Like
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  Speaker 1: if the chances of you scoring a touchdown on second, third,
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  Speaker 1: and fourth in goal, you can get three chances with
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  Speaker 1: Josh Allen and the Twitsch I mean is ninety nine percent,
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  Speaker 1: maybe ninety eight percent. Like you could have a false
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  Speaker 1: start right there could be a fumble and snap that
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  Speaker 1: could happen on first down too, but that those chances
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  Speaker 1: are so much higher than the chances of you scoring
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  Speaker 1: right away and then kicking off. There's a chance. The
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  Speaker 1: Jags started the thirty five that Cam Little was kicking,
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  Speaker 1: was making seventy yarders in pregame warmups. He's two of
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  Speaker 1: two from sixty seven plus in his career. The rest
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  Speaker 1: of the NFL. In NFL history, all of the kickers
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  Speaker 1: are oh of twenty two from sixty seven plus. You
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  Speaker 1: might only need one first down to get a fugel range.
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  Speaker 1: That probability is so much higher. So they they completely
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  Speaker 1: botched it that they got away with it because Lawrence
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  Speaker 1: threw a pick, but he also missed the touch There
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  Speaker 1: was a wide open guy on that play that could
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  Speaker 1: have ran for a touchdown. I thought McDermott completely botched
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  Speaker 1: that you have to go down there and the other
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  Speaker 1: there's two other reasons why you know that was the
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  Speaker 1: bad move. That was the incorrect move from a game
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  Speaker 1: theory perspective. One, the Jags money line where the Bills
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  Speaker 1: live money line in the live market. When they scored
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  Speaker 1: on first down, their odds went down to win the game,
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  Speaker 1: so like the market would say, okay, now, the probability
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  Speaker 1: then winning the game is lower than if they would
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  Speaker 1: have waited. And number two, the Jags let them score,
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  Speaker 1: so that the Jags knew that they needed to let
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  Speaker 1: the Bills score there to give them the best chance
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  Speaker 1: to tie the game into force overtime. So yeah, it
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  Speaker 1: was the wrong move. McDermot almost pulled a you know,
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  Speaker 1: a Chiefs thirteen second repeat from a couple of years
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  Speaker 1: ago when they messed up the kickoff and then they
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  Speaker 1: let Kelsey catch up pass up the seam to get
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  Speaker 1: a field goal range. Now, no one will ever talk
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  Speaker 1: about it again because Lawrence thro a pick. But I
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  Speaker 1: thought it was clearly the wrong move, but they got
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  Speaker 1: away with it. Allen was incredible, and I mean, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: you just have to go down there. There's no way
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  Speaker 1: that they're stopping Allen on three downs from the one.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean totally with you. Obviously the Eagle game,
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  Speaker 2: you know, to lose to that forty nine er team
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  Speaker 2: wallow from practice squads to Eric Kendricks, who was kind
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: of out of the league, you know, trending toward his
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: career being over making game winning plays against you, you
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  Speaker 2: know the time. You know, Kyle is not a trick
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  Speaker 2: play guy. You know, I can count on one hand
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  Speaker 2: the trick plays he's running the last five year. But
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: they've all come in big spots. Won the Super Bowl,
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  Speaker 2: won in that famous uh debo, threw a pass to
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  Speaker 2: Jennings against the Rams week eighteen. The Niners had to
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: win to get in the division. They were getting blown
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  Speaker 2: out in the first half. I was actually at that game.
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  Speaker 2: So he's not Kyle's you know, not some you know
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  Speaker 2: Ben Johnson with the trick play. So when he busts
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  Speaker 2: him out, you know he clearly he's on tilt, knowing
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: his season was, you know, on the line. Obviously in
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: a playoff game, it is, but the underdog mentality. We'll
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: get into that game a little bit later. Against Seattle,
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  Speaker 2: I think, you know, they might need like a fake
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: pun or a fake field goal. They should be using
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: some of that type stuff. This week potentially, but man,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: that was you know, looking back, it's one of those
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: I didn't have much faith just because and part of
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: it was recency biased. It wasn't even just the Seattle game.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: It was a week before against Chicago when they were
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: just scoring it will You're like, this defense just out
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: of bodies. But I mean, what you know, we talk
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: a lot about coaching performances, but Kyle and Sola coming
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: out of that, I mean, that's a pretty legendary performance
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  Speaker 2: by those two guys.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, unbelievable. They deserve all the credit, that's the beautiful
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: thing about and it makes it tough to bet on.
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  Speaker 1: You know, obviously lines are really efficient this time of
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  Speaker 1: the year, but this is you know, I'll spend all
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: week diving into tendencies and NFL teams change on a
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: week to week basis, but especially in the playoffs, you
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: can flip, right, and that's when you can flip everything
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: these highest leverage games. But I thought Sala did a
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: tremendous job with his fifth, sixth, and seventh string linebackers,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: and you know, part of what you know, like Salid,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: there's a ton of credit for what he's working with him,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: what he's done all year, but part of that was
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the story of the Eagles all year. Yeah, I mean,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: this is a team they went twenty they went to
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: stretch after they went on a ninety six yard touchdown drive,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: They went twenty seven plays for twenty four yards over.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: It just happened all year, no matter who they played,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: and it is just how many hitches can you run?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: They couldn't run the ball on anybody. But I thought
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Shanahan because that Eagles defense, which was healthy too, was
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: one of the most elite units in the NFL all year. Additionally,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you had wind going up against that defense, going up
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: against a Fangio defense that in foe head to head
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: meetings Shanahan never cleared fifteen points to average ten point
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: two five points per game, clearly had Shannan's number, so
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: he made I just thought he called a hell of
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: a game, used a trick play at the right time.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I didn't think they were gonna be able to hit
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: that many pass explosives. I mean, DeMarcus Robinson looked like
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: you know, Jerry Rice out there, So I thought Shanahan
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: was unbelievable to lose kittle two to go do that
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: drive to take the lead was awesome, but it also
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: was a fitting end and a micro cosm of the
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: entire season for the Eagles, although I didn't expect the
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  Speaker 1: defense to get torched like that, but the offense it
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: was a lot overdue that that's how they would that
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: they would end their season because Patula and that offense,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: it was just a disaster from from day one.
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  Speaker 2: Patula and you've been rattling off stats, like statistically he
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: is dramatically worse than the Ben Johnson offense, which was
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: obviously struggled. But the quarterback has to get some ship.
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  Speaker 2: I mean he he doesn't. He doesn't want to run anymore.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: That that would have been a game Lamar Jackson or
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen would have ran for eighty five to one
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: hundred yards. He could one play they got called back.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: He could have had that play all game long. Quarterback
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: sweeps quarterback. But he doesn't want to do it, clearly
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: because it's not like the staff's like, let's just out
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: run Jalen. They're not that dumb. It's the quarterback. I
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: told this to Colin on Sunday night. I think he
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: views himself like Russell did, like once they won the
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Super like I'm a pot quarterback. I'm not running anymore.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: And Russell was even less of a runner than like
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: Jalen is a natural runner in the open field. But
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: he just doesn't want to do it because you should
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: have called like minimum, like five quarterback powers. A couple
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: of the probably would have hit for like twenty yards.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah it was that was the defense that you do
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: it against. And yeah there's a patula, doesn't he gets it.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: He deserves a ton of blame, but certainly not all
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: of it. Heerts should get a lot. The offensive line
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: also is way worse. I mean, how many times gets
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: no matter who they played is Barkley. It's not like
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Barkley lost a step. You can see him once he
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: hit once he is a hole, still has the same explosives.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: How many times all year they hand the ball off
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: the Barkley and immediately he's.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: Led the league led? The league touches behind the backfield
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: line of scrimmage.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: And like the forty nine ers run defense a team
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: that doesn't get pressure. They were in the backfield all night.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: So the offensive line deserves some blame as well. And
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: then I think Siriani and how I don't know his
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the offense was almost it kind of took on like
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: his arrogance, like they would just they felt like they
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: were just like too cool for school sometimes and they
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: would put a drive together and then they would just
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: be lax days. There was no never any energy. But
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: when he went after he went after A J. Brown
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: for not getting off the sidelines, they get in each
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: other's face and then A J. Brown doesn't have to
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: catch the rest of the day like he A J.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Brown is. It seems like he's that type of guy
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: that is just like all right, I'm checking out of here, Like, yeah,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: you have to know how to handle the personalities of
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: your team. I would be shocked if he's back in
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Philly if is stuck you.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: But AJ Brown is a lock to be traded in
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: the next probably after the combine, it'll be announced he's
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: been has it has to.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Be, But like, yeah, what a waste you have? They
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: have talent like you have A J. Brown, Devonte Smith,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley, you know, Dallas Goddard on paper of one
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: of the better offensive lines and then what a waste
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: for that offense and a talented roster. But credits are
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers for going on the road and
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: getting a win that you know, not a lot of
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: people saw, including myself. Uh, it's all happening.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Do you consider yourself you know when people said the
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: sharps aron so and so, do you consider yourself as sharp?
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Uh? I would? I mean yeah, I would say so.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: And it's it's it's all round like there's gonna be when.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: One of the things that I will say is that
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: when like last week the books they said the sharp
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: sides were like the Jags, Pittsburgh Packers, Ye had the
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: steel I wasn't on the Steelers, but I was on
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: the Jags, the Packers, the Eagles at an early number,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: and so I tend to be on similar sides. But
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the number one. There's two two key points here. The
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: numbers matter. So like when sports mustile to come out
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: and say like are sharper accounts and these are accounts
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: that are that are respected and that they they'll move on.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: And you know, you could come in just a guy
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: off the street or Floyd Mayweather and bet even way
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: bigger than some of these respect accounts and they're not
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: going to move off it. But these sharp accounts that win,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: they'll they'll move the line or respect it. Based on
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: where some of these accounts are betting, but the number one.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: The numbers matter, So like there was there was sharp
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: money on the Eagles, but that was you know, it
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: opened three and a half, it got up to six.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: There all there will also was some sharp money that
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: came in on the forty nine ers. That's right, So
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: numbers matter, there's different entry points, and then there's also
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: gonna be conflicting. You know, some sharp groups might like
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: you know, like the Jags, but there was also some
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: short money that came into the Bills when they got
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: to plus two, plus two and a half. So all
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: that is just speaking in generals. But it was a
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: rough weekend for a lot of sharp betters and uh
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: including myself. But you know that's what happens in small,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: small sample size. You really just try to get the
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: best of the number, which I did so I can't
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: complain too much. And then you're you're you're betting on
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: football games with small margins at an oblong ball. Sometimes
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get bounces, sometimes you're not. But yeah, that's
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I would assume this week for the sharp sides, I
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: don't even know. I would assume, like New England that
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: under it opened under three. I'm there was probably some
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: sharp early money.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Rams.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Rams are probably gonna have more
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: sharp money there. And then Saturday, I don't I could see.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be sharp money on both the
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Buffalo and Denver and San fran Seattle. I think there
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: was early sharp money in Seattle, like just real early,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: and then I could see some sharp money on like
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: San fram whenever it gets above seven, and then I
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: think inevitably it's gonna settle it at seven. But I
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: don't you might have. I think you have some sharp
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: money on the Denver Buffalo under which I like. And yeah,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: other than that, there there obviously was sharp money on
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the Rams bears under because that to move it from
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: it was backing off to fifty one and a half
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: and it came down to forty eight and a half.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: It's a pretty substantial move, but these things can change
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: later in the week is limits could even higher, so we'll,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: but last week it was it was rough for sharp
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: betters'll that'll that'll have one weekend a lot of avariants.
• 20:13
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• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Well let's just start with the bills, and I think
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: it's fair to say when you get a number like
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: this that hovers between you know, bills right now in
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Hardrock Bet as if we're recording this on Wednesday, you
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: know are minus one on the road against Denver. The
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: numbers shifted around a little bit. But like you said
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: to me offline that the money line really reflects this
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: game as a coin flip game. You know, when you
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: look at Denver, even if I give them a pass,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: let's just say for sake of argument, we removed the
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Charger game. They're rolling out Trey Lance, who's probably not
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: two deep player in the NFL. The previous week they
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: played the Raiders on that whatever was it Christmas or
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: Christmas Eve division game, weird thing. Just let's say remove that.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: The previous time when they played Jacksonville, which was a
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: massive game at the time, they kind of got worked
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: not kind of that they did. And their defense, you know,
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: like when you watch the Eagles or you watch Seattle,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: there's a physicality to their defense. I think when you
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: watch Denver there's more speed oriented. And I just think
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: that like the question on Denver, Obviously, bo Nicks has
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: been the big kind of elephant in the room, but
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: if their defense isn't as dominant, like they don't look
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: like Houston or something. Right, now, did you go how
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: good is this team? The quarterback's never proven anything, and
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: he's been very iffy most of the season, and clearly
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: like he was trying in those last couple of games.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: It didn't look great the Bills. We talked about it
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: last week. I just took Josh. It's been on Josh
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: and it worked. And I mean the difference in that game.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: I thought Trevor was all over the place. Liam Cohen
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: probably should have ran the ball more. They were having
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: much success, I mean part of the deal against Buffalo.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: And you saw this last year with your squad Baltimore,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: like lean on physically they're not yea, yeah, what are
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: you guys doing? So I think this is a tough spot.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: You know, Denver just they had a lot of question marks.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: Now maybe just we look back in the year, they
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: answer them over the next couple of weeks and we
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: don't think about them like that. But I'm taking the Bills.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna hammer the money line in this game.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: And just like I said last week, if they beat
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: this Jacks team, I'm just gonna hammer them till they lose.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: And that's my mindset here. The other thing is, I
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: was at the dog park the other day and we
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: start talking to this lady and she comes up. She's like, Oh,
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: is your wife the one that's pregnant. I'm like yeah,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: and we's like the guy was wearing a Broncos sweatshirt.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, you're from Colorado. He's like, yeah, We've
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: lived there for forty years, right, we bought a house
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: here forever. We came over here during the winter, big
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: Bronco fans. I'm like, oh, it's probably cold, snowy week.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: He's like, actually, I just text my son. It's sixty
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: degrees and I look today, the sun's gonna be out
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: and it's like in the fifties. So this is not
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: some frigid, cold Denver Bronco Mile High game. It's not
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: quite Jacksonville where people are in the pool, but at least,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: based on what I saw, could be potentially a nice afternoon,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: you know, day game. So that to me benefits Josh Allen,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: does it not? So I'm taking the bills in this game.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I so I agree with that. The Broncos defense
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: is it's not as elite as Seattle and Houston. It's
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: very good, and they might get drag Green.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: Law back, which their physicality, yeah, which they need.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: I mean last year, So these teams met last year
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs and the Bills won thirty one seven
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: in the first round. The Broncos linebacker and corps. Linebacker
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: corps was decimated by injury that in game injuries, and
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: it wasn't as good as what it would be if
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: especially if Green laws back. And you know, they added Hufunga,
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: who provides some more physicality as well in the run game.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Now you're gonna have Locke, who is vulnerable at safety
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: because their start, their starting safety is out with an injury,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Brandon Jones. But yeah, this so and what happened in
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: that game is the Bills just ran all over them
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: and they just leaned on Denver. I don't think they'll
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: be able to do that as success successfully here. But
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I do think that they'll have success running.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: The ball because they didn't really against Jacksonville, right, Cook
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: was kind of a non factor in that game.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, Jason Rundy has been e lead all year.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: They had a top five Rundy. Now, on paper, the
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Broncos have a top five run dye. But when they
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: stepped up and faced some teams that can run the ball,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: like some of the top tier running teams, they didn't
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: face a lot they they weren't as dominant, so I
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: could see I think the Bills have to lean on
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: the ground game here. I'm so curious to see what
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: they do from because here, so for starters, I did
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: play the under. I don't blame you for taking I mean,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: if you just need to win a game historically, like
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: on the money line as a dog or as a
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: favorite under a fueld goal, Josh Allen is, you know,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the just to win the game. Is the most profitable
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: quarterback in NFL history, and he just might be the
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Mahomes of this year, right, like who cares I have
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen? Like? Right, but last year was you know,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: nearest prior was just who cares live Patrick Mahomes. It's
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: like it didn't matter. You just bet the bet the
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Chiefs to win the game. And that's basically what happened
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: last week, right, Like the Jags were they had the game,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: but Josh Allen just despite all the injuries, he just
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: made plays when he had to at the end. And
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: that could happen here.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: Now do you agree to if they if they win
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: this game? So they've I mean the Jags obviously the
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: hottest team coming in the playoffs potentially in the league.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: Then you go on the road to the number one seed,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: beat him, and more likely, I guess Houston will get
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: into that game. Who beat the shit out of the
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Bills early this season. Might be a tough matchup for him.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: So actually it's it might not be as easy to
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: just be like they're just gonna win the super Bowl.
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: The Houston thing, well, I guess we'll get to that
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: in a minute. No, never mind, that's Houston's a tough
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: matchup for the Bills.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean going to going to New England wouldn't
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be easy. I mean both of those games were
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: very close during the year as far like Allen will
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: have to earn it because I know, I know that
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: there's no Mahomes, no Lamar, no Burrow in it. But
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: going on the road to Jacksonville, it's a shame for
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: jack that those teams had to play each other, because
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: both those teams could went to Super Bowl, and the
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Jags got screwed. They win the division, they have to
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: play Buffalo Texans finished in second, get to play the Steelers,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: but the Texans pass.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Jags would have rather played the Steelers. They probably would
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: have won by the same margin.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, the Jags you know, when the the Bills played
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: the Falcons and lost the Texans, those pass rushers, they
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: they were able to get to Allen and give them
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: some issues. So maybe this Broncos pass rush can do
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: the same. Because it isn't a great matchup for the
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Bills offense, They're not. Allen's numbers this year are significantly
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: worse against man coverage. Now last week he got to
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: face a zone heavy defense, and the reason for that
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: is it's not Josh Allen. It's that he doesn't have
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: receivers that can get any separation. So it's hard for
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: me to see their receivers getting and their receiving core
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: is decimated now. Like Curtis Samuel just got designated to
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: come back off IR, they're probably gonna need him. They
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: only had three as yesterday, only had three healthy receivers
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: on the roster. One of them is a guy who've
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: been healthy scratching. You know, Shakier has been good, but
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: McMillan's pretty good in the slot. And then you have
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Certain I'm curious see what they do with him. I mean,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: you use him on, like Kincaid said, sometimes because there's
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: just they're gonna be able to man up, load the box,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: bring the blitz, and it's gonna be hard for Alan
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: to have enough time because his receivers just aren't gonna
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: get any separation because the Broncos are going to play
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: a ton of man. They blitz and it's just gonna
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: be tough. So the Bills are gonna lean on the
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: ground game here. It's gonna keep the clock moving. I'm
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: curious to see if they like completely switch it up,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: if they go three, if they go like two three
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: tight end sets and and try to attack the linebackers
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: and the safeties of Denver. So I'm super curious to
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: see how they what they do schematically. If you got
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: to remember Josh Allen's also dealing with some injuries. On
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: a short week, we'll see how banged up he is.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: He's gonna take hits against Denver. But the clock's gonna
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: be moving. I think they're gonna lean on the ground game,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: especially early on, and then on the other side of
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: the ball, they could get at Oliver back as well.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: He was just designated off. That would be big for
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: their defensive line. But McDermott usually does a good job
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: in game planning, scheming, disguising looks in these big, high
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: leverage games, they're gonna play a ton of too high.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: They take away the explosive play. That's kind of what
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: bo Nicks does. It's but bo Nix will you know,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: he's very inconsistent on a down the down basis. But
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: then we'll he'll hit the splash play every once in
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: a while. The Bills don't give that up. Play a
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: ton of too high against too high, Knicks doesn't really
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: take chances. He's the lowest yards per attempt in the league.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: He's gonna take those short passes. I also think Peyton
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: is gonna rely on his defense, which means he's gonna
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: heavy dose of run here. He knows that's where the
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: Bills are the weakest. He's usually smart about that. So
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are gonna be running a ton,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: relying on field position. Clock will be running.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: This is a great game. This is a great game.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be good. So I bet the under the Bill.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: I think the Bill's only goal is Knicks is gonna
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: use his legs here. The Bills struggle with can struggle
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: with mobile quarterbacks. I think the Bill's only goal is,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: you know, try to run the ball. Keep the game
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: close until the fourth quarter, and then you have Josh Allen.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: They have bow knicks, and uh, you just want to
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: be in a position where Josh Allen needs to go
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: win the game, and more times than not, he's gonna
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: go do that. But I think this will be lower
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: scoring field position battle, especially early on.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: One thing I was told and forty nine er players
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: have been saying, I mean it goes back to the
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons. That what one of Kyle's strengths is during
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: the week when he does these game plans, he's so
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: good at dissecting the defense. When he tells, you get
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: to this spot, it'll be wide open. Run this play
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: at this time, it'll work. And he's kind of a
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: genius like that because he's really he has a great
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: mind on the defensive side of the ball. So when
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: you do something like Fangio. One thing I think they
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: felt after the game is like we kind of knew
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: where they were going to line up. Obviously they have
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: good players, but we weren't getting tricked by stuff. And
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: the thing that happened in that Seattle game a couple
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago, you know, from just some some sources,
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: is and I think this is what makes Mike so
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: specially he's been doing it. You know, his whole career
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: is they dot they would get something, and guys would
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: be in completely different spots once the ball was snapped,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: and his deciphering and disguising shit was all over the place.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: But I'm not even talking about the D line whooping
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: the old line. I'm just talking about in coverage. Guys
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: are all over the map when the forty nine ers
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: have game planned against something else. So I mean, Perty's
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: going back there thinking X and he's getting why, and
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: it really threw them off ward. Against Fangio, they went
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: back to seeing X and they were getting X. He
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: they just had to execute it. So, you know, I
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: think they can prepare. You know, obviously they got screwed
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: a little bit by the timing. Right, ideally you'd play Sunday.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: They've kind of got a couple of short weeks, but
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: like they don't really have like the prep's already done, right,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: they just played him Sunday. The Seattle didn't play an
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: extra game, So really they can double down and like
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: what could we have done a little different and like
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: build off what we thought coming into that game and
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: make adjustment. It's kind of a unique spot for the
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers from a game plan perspective in a
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: shitty week, because they just probably had an incredible game
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: plan playing for the number one seed that didn't work,
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: and then they can kind of pivot off that where Seattle.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: You know, it's like you just you know you're gonna
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: get some different swings now from them that you just saw.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: So I I think the forty nine ers to have
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: a chance in this game. And to me, the key
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: is someone asked me, it's like, well, the two guys
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: ran for one hundred and seventy yards and there was
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: a point in that Eagle game when it was thirteen
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: to seven Eagles, they had the ball and the time
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: possession was like eighteen to six. I was like, the
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Niners are in trouble.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Eagles just went on a nine minute touchdown.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: If that takes place in Seattle, they will lose the
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: time possession thing again. So you just have to get
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: for some more punts and not just give them drives
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: even if they're not scoring points that just last seven
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: eight minutes, because then that puts so much pressure. If
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: you go three and out, it feels like a disastrous quarter.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: So I do think Kyle, this is a game again.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: It's like can you run a fake field goal or
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: fake punt? Like you're gonna have to do one of those.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: You probably can't run the wide receiver pass again. But
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: I do think the forty nine ers are pretty live
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: dog in this spot. And let's face it, you know,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: there is a ton of pressure on Sam in this
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: game to just like he played really well last week
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: or whenever they won thirteen to three. I know they
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: didn't score many points, but he was twenty twenty six.
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: He was efficient. He was just completely under control. If
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: he plays again like that and their defense plays, they'll win.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: But like we've seen Sam in a couple of these
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: high leverage spots and it didn't go as well. Now,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: did the forty nine ers have the defense to really,
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of put him on tilt? I don't know,
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: But to me, it starts with can you just neutralize
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: the run game? Because if you remove the first run
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: of the game or Saquon win, I think for like
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: thirty yards, he really had twenty five carries for like
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: seventy yards, Like you live with that all day. It
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: was just the over and over in that Saturday night
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: game of just the five seven five, It's like it
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: just kills you. So to me stop the run, It's like, Okay,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Sam throw for two hundred and fifty three hundred yards.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: I can't wait for this game now. My favorite part
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: about the playoffs is from a football fan perspective, is
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: the coaching matchup. And to look at the NFC, I mean,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: you have Ben Johnson versu mcaday, and you have Kyle
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: versus MacDonald.
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: And if we had a coaching draft, I mean, would
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: you say these four guys would go in the top six?
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, for sure?
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: After if you just if you just say, hey, age
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: doesn't matter. Let's say Andy goes one, would these get
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Would these be the next four picks in some order?
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: I get Mike's a defensive guy, but I think he
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: still ain't falling far.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let me look at the If Kevin.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: O'Connell would go high, Rabel would go in the top ten,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Demiko would be a sleeper defensive guy that would go high,
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: high level guy, all.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Four of them for anyone else, I think at the moment,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: although I do think now he's still new to the job,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: but I do think very, very highly of Liam Cohen.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: So he but I mean it's only one years.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: He'd go hid Sirianni go top twenty, you think, or.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, like what does what does
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: ser Like I struggle with how valuable is Sirianni? Like
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: what does he do? Right? Like he won a Super
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Bowl and you have to give him credit for that,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: but like he had, right, two really good coordinators. He
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: has one of the most talented rosters. Is the organization
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: is run very well. You have a great GM, so
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: much talent on that roster. What does he really do?
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: He's supposed to be an offensive guy, so you don't
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: have the coordinator this year and the offense falls apart.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Like if you remove him from that team last year,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: did they still win the Super Bowl? Maybe? I do
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: think he's pretty sharp with like some in game stuff
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: and understanding like game and time and clock management. But
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't have him near the top. So but yeah,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: these coaching matchups are awesome. So I kind of wanted
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: to when these two teams met in week eighteen. When
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: I was saw him on this game, I told you,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: I like the under it was that opened at like fifty.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: I was like, that's way too high for these teams,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: and it came down to like forty seven and a
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: half I think, But now this total is that like
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: forty four and a half. I'm thinking I kind of
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: want to bet the over. I think it's come down
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: a bit too much. But this will all come down
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: to the battle between Shanahan and McDonald. And what I
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: mean by that is that if McDonald dominates. Because McDonald
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: came out he said, well, he has some other looks
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: that he has in his back pocket that he didn't
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: show in the Week eighteen game. So there you're gonna
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: get some other looks here. So can Shanahan anticip based
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: on what they saw in week eighteen that they weren't expecting,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: what newde is McDonald have? What does Shanahan have to
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: kind of counteract that? And can the forty nine ers
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: hit some explosive plays and move the ball through the air. Right,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have Trent Williams this time around, but you're
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: not gonna have Kittle. You could have Ricky Pearsall, which
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: would be massive. Do you think he's gonna play.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I would not be confident.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I figured, But he was these two deer.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Remember these two teams played in Week one and both
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: the times they played, the scores are super low scoring,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: but there's been a bunch of scoring opportunities and where
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: no one scored.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Like Kittle missed the majority of that game.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, Kittle got hurt in that series and Party
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: threw for what three sixty I think.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: And good, what's the what's the weather this week? There?
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be fine. Okay, so piersall had
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: but Pearsall had a big Dad. I think you had
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: four catches for one to ten in that game. But
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: if the forty nine ers, so, what you can cross
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: all here is the forty nine ers will not be
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: able to run the ball. That's just gonna be a fact.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Number one. Seattle's run defense is historically good. They're the
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: best run defense in the NFL by a wide margin.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: You can't run on them. No one can run on them.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: It's almost impossible. Now you're gonna have to still do
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: it some. But they're not gonna success running ball, especially naw,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: they don't Kittle, who's one of your keys to your
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: run game. But you'll have Williams this time around. Party
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: should have a bit more time, can he avoid the mistakes, right,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: I think he has seven. I think he's made a
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: ton of mistakes whenever he's faced McDonald defense. Go back
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: to that Ravens Niners game that costs them then four picks. Yeah,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: So can he avoid the mistakes? Like we get teeny
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: throw a pick, but that was tipped and then bounced
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: off McCaffrey's arms. But can he move the ball through
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: the air against this complex changing that's gonna come down
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: to Shanahan has dialed up where he has identified the
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: potential weaknesses are in that coverage, Like there was definitely
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: some certain areas of the field that he identified against
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: that Fangio defense that they took advantage of on the
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: left side, and it was a beautiful game plan. And
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: I agree with you, they're gonna have to get aggressive
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: and then try some trick plays. And so if they're
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: able to do that and you know, score and put
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: touchdowns on the board, then that puts pressure on Sam
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Darnold to have to throw the ball and then he
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: could make mistakes. The problem is the fort As don't
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: get a ton of pressure. So I'm also curious to
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: see how to Sola play this. The Seahawks should should
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: have their left tackle back. They could get a Royal
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: back at tight end who kind of helps stretch defense
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: as a bunch. But the Seattle offense hasn't been great
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: for you know, a month and a half. Their offense
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: has been solved a bit. But this does Sala say,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna play. They played too high on sixty
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: seven percent of their snapskn Siquals played a ton of
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: quarters coverage. They we're just trying to take away the
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: explosive plays. They know their defense doesn't have a ton
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: of talent, so it's like prevent the explosive plays. Well,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: we're just gonna stop you in the red zone, hope
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: you make a mistake and then you know, we just
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: don't want to give up those big plays. Does he
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: take that same approach or does he bring his safeties
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: more down and try to stop that run game because
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: Seattle was doing whatever it wanted on the ground that so,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: but it all comes down to what that Kyle versus
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: McDonald chess match, Because if if Kyle's able to move
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the ball and is able, you know, to identify some
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: of those weaknesses, then this is gonna be I think
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: this game of wover and there could be like twenty seven.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: I could see being twenty seven to twenty. I could
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: see the forty nine's on the shot to pull off
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: the upset. But if Channan's, if they're not able to
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: move the ball and perty's under pressure, and I know
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to run the ball,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: what McDonald will do is park it, and he's gonna
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: tell he's he knows. I don't. I My defense is
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: dominating this game. I'm not letting Donald lose it. And
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: then they're just gonna run it, and then they're gonna
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have these long drives and then the over
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: is gonna have no chance, and they're just gonna say
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: look now.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: And he's the most conservative coach, doesn't go for it
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: on fourth downs, kicksfield goals.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: So this is all that's gonna dictate the side. If
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: the forty nine's had a chance, that's that chess match.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: How's it gonna play? I don't know.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: I'm taking that. I'm taking the Niners seven points and
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: that's I mean, this game was what two and a half,
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. I think obviously we witnessed
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: that game. It was like Jesus Now, Trent didn't play pleasants,
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: getting you know, spun like a draidal a party. By
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: the end of the game, it felt like, God is
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: He's gonna die in this game. So that's it's part
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: of it. Uh. The forty nine ers when they're O
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: line does play bad. It does feel like they can
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: get physically overwhelmed. And this is one of the units
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: that God, they've they've been good. So to me, it's like,
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: can you just neutralize that front a little bit. They
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: always say party's gonna have to run around no matter
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: who they play, But like, if it's just if it
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: looks like Aaron Rodgers against the Texas, yeah they're gonna
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: get killed, right, and the score might not even reflect
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: quote unquote killed. It could be like seventeen to seven
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: final score, but it'll just be like a bludgeoning, you know, Yeah, and.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: You'll feel like they have no chance to win it.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Shanahan just has to draw. He has to
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: find a way like he did last week against a
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: team that doesn't give up exposed to plays like Seattle.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Find ways. It would be a big boost of pure
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: so could play and look healthy. But with Robinson Jennings.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: I'm sure there's gonna be a ton of designed stuff
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: for McCaffrey out of the backfield, and then Herdy just
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: has to avoid forcing throws. Now, it's a fine balance.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: You want to you got to hit some exposures. You're
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: not going to run the ball, but the Seattle defense
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: will take it away and they'll score. So uh yeah,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: early in this game will tell you because if the
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers are struggling, this game is gonna die
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: because the Shawks are just gonna run it totally and
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: then punt it and rely on their day and field
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: goals and no to.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: Shaheed too is a little bit of a curveball right
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: as a return many last week, Brian Robinson like barely
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: was making it to the twenty five like they were
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: kicking it to him. Sky Moore had won it. It did
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: not go well. I mean, part of it was like
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: they were starting like old school long NFL drives. They
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: didn't have any like oh, got to the forty you know.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: I was like that that they're gonna need a little
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: bit more juice on especially if Jason let's say Myers
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: kicks like three field goals, like you're gonna get some
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: kickoff return opportunities. The Robinson thing, I don't know what
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: was going on, but he was going nowhere. He was
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: running the back of guys like bro, this is this
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: is a game that's gonna be decided by a couple
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: of yards here. This is not gonna work out. And
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: if Shaheed gives them some explosive plays and all of
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: a sudden they gotta drive from the fifty. It's shit
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: like that you're talking about that these games all come
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: down to small margins. That something I noticed big time,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: Like this is not ideal here.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Jets somehow had a historically good special teams
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: this year. It's the only thing they did well. If
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Folk is a kicker, really good return units, coverage units.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: The Seahawks were right behind them. If you look at
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of the overall metrics, there are special teams
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: that are very very good. I think the forty nine
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: ers were around league average, but that could be some
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: hidden edge for Seattle. But Kyle has to be aggressive here.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: I can't wait for the chess match like whenever you
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: doubt like Chanaan, Yeah in the playoffs, Yeah, so I
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: don't blame you for taking the points here.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Nine and four in the playoffs, and a lot of those.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: This isn't like the Belichick you know, Brady Patriots. They
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: were underdogs and a lot of those wins. Right, Yeah,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: So it's and pretty not like you know, coin flip games.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: These were like over a field goal underdogs, you know,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: at Dallas, at Green Bay, at Philly. I mean those
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: were games that most Niner fans like, yeah, I'm probably
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: not gonna win. You know. It's like that's and that's
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: what makes a great coach when people like, yeah, I'm
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: probably not gonna win, and then you get to the
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: point where it's like you just can't doubt the guy
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: because his team. So I don't know mentally what the
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: preparation going into the game, there's like a belief and
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: then you just got to make the game weird. So
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: it's just a great game. It really is. To me,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: it's the best game of the weekend.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't I can't wait for it. The other
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: thing is Donald struggles more against too high, which you assume.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: So he ran a ton of That's usually what he
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: wants to do. Take away explosive, but then you'll leave
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: yourself vulnerable to the run game. So that you obviously
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: don't just run nothing. But to Islo, classic Can was
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent, but I'm curious to see that percentage.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: But if the forty nine is able to score, you
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: make Donald have to throw and be more aggressive, and
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: then in those zones he's more likely to make a mistake,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: and that's where you can really win this game. So
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: you'll know early on in this game how it's gonna go.
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: I'm not overthinking the same time, I'm taking the Texans. Obviously,
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: CJ makes you a little nervous. I was looking at
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: all the games they played and I was like, if
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: you remove the Chargers, who's the best defense that the
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: Patriots had played? I mean they got the Browns in
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: New England.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Brown's the stand away from home.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: No, so it's like not really anybody. And that game
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: was weird last week. If Herbert hadn't played, I mean,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: that's as bad as it gets. It was nine to
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: three going to the fourth quarter, and your quarterback, fifty
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: million dollar guy that a lot of people like myself defend,
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: it's just playing a game like he's fucking Deshaun Kaiser
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: or something. You're like, what is going on here? And
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: it was still nine to three. Vrabel has done an
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: incredible job. The future is bright. They're gonna have aj
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Brown on the team next year. Probably they'll be fine,
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: and they're gonna be legit sua well contender and yours.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: I just don't know if they are right now. And
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: Drake Drake was really good in the second half. And
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: obviously the home field advantage New England is the fans
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: show they're up, they're used to winning. Play's gonna be rocking.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: But that that Houston defense, I mean, if the Neil
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: Hunter is gonna look like Lawrence Taylor, and you also
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: have Will Anderson and the team speed they have in
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: the secondary, Petrie probably one of the more fun players
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: in the league. Throwback to a guy like we grew
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: up on. There are a bunch of guys like that
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: in the league that would just could do it all
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: and be fucking knock the shit out of you. Who
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: fungus kind of like that too, but Petrie feels like
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: a little bit more dynamic in the open field. This again, though,
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: I mean if their quarterback against the Patriots has four
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: fumbles and a half, loses a couple and throws a
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: pick that it's just hits a guy in the numbers, Yeah,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: they'll lose. And to me, Demko is sitting them down.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Like CJ. You the number two pick in the draft
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: to come from Ohio State, you were a star player.
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: We need you to play like trend Deil for a
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: Brad johnsonbody like, let's let's calm it down a little bit.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: It's on the offensive coordinator to Miko, just we don't
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: need you to play hero ball because our defense is
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: poised to just carry us. And if you're gonna run
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: the ball like that, it's like CJ. No turnovers. He
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: I feel like he plays like a guy trying to
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: prove he's a star. It's like, bro, they don't need
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: this right now. Perty got fifty million dollars a year
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: by just just do what the court coach tells you
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: to do. Also, it wasn't his fault when you run
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: a flee If I say, hey, a team runs a
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: flea flicker, don't you usually think about that like later
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: in the game after you establish the run. Isn't that
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: part of the play. Yes, you don't run in the
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: first quarter.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: No, that was bizarre. I had no idea on this game,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: to be honest, I part of it is I struggled
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: to what to make of the pass because of their schedule.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: They had the easiest schedule of any team over the
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: past thirty years. Now they finally so. They played no
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: defenses with a pulse until the Chargers, the first top
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: ten defense they played. Texans are another level and their
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: offense struggled like may fumbled it a couple times, throw
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: a pick. It wasn't the same smooth operation as you
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: would expect as when they stepped up in class. The
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: same to be set of their defense, which hasn't They
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: played like the only offense with a pole. Like the
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks they faced over the course of the season, it
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: was rookies, backups, guys who were benched in like eleven
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: of the of their womins. They faced Allen twice, they
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: split right and they got torched in the second game.
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: They didn't really face any other good quarterbacks. Then they
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: faced Herbert, and Herbert is a top ten back, many
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: have him the top five, and they shut him down. Now,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: was that the Chargers offensive line and Herbert? But that
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: could look the same here. The Texans offensive line isn't great,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: their running game isn't great, and you know Stroud could
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: struggle in the pocket. You could have a similar game
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: plan here, you know, blitz heavy. Stroud struggles against the blitz,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: and this Texans offense could look broken as it does
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: at times. You got to remember, I mean remember the
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Steelers defense has been pretty bad all year. But I
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: just don't know enough about it because I also saw
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Herbert missing throws and missing guys that were over.
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: Guys were open, he's over, He's airmailing them by like
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: ten feet.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Wasn't even close. So even that game is hard for
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: me to really measure what this Pats is. Now, they
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: do a good job of these guys and coverages and
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: changing things. Now, Christian Gonzalez, they don't have depth at corner.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: If he's out with concussion, and then you also have
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: the Nico Collins thing, I think it would hurt the
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: Pats more if Gonzalez is out. I think there's a
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: more higher chance that Collins is out short week. It
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: looked bad, but when he was out earlier this year,
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: they developed some depth at wide receiver. But this basically
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: just comes down to how dominant can the Texans defense be,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Like they have the defense that can carry them to
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl. Imagine if we get Houston Seattle Super
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: Bowl what that total would be. So but they have
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: the defense that can carry them to a super Bowl.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: How many plays can they make? I mean, had two
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: defensive touchdowns last week? Margins are thin. This totals forty one.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: This line's trending to three and a half at that point,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I think you have to look at Houston. I just
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: don't have a great feel on this Pats team just
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: because of the lack of data points against strong competition,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: and it just might be a struggle for this Houston
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: offense because the Pats can employ that same game plan
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: as last week, and you know, having Nego Collins will
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: not having Nico Collins would would definitely hurt their their
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: playmaking ability. But this will just come down to how
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: good I can't wait to watch another great chestments is Drake.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: May you know number one in e paper drop back
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: versus this Houston pass defense, which is historically good. Number
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: one ePaper drop back allowed how much pressure because the
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: pressure could just be overwhelming on that end as well.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: You saw the Chargers. The Chargers are not an elite
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: defense in terms of getting pressure, and they were in
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: the backfield all day I think they had five or
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: six stacks always looked like an All Pro, and their
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: rookie tackle Will Campbell looked.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: Rough shove him back a lot.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: You know, this is another step up in class the
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: Texans pass rush, So how may handles that will be
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: interesting to see. But yeah, if you want to take
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: the points here with you know that defense in which
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: should be a lower scoring affair, I will. I won't
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: talk you off, bit I just don't have a strong feel.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: My logic on the Bears is simple. They could be
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: down twenty in the second half and you look up
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: an hour later in the games in overtime. So I'm
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: just taking them in the points. I mean, it just
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: it feels like the football gods are just hanging out
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: in their locker room this year. I mean, they score
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: twenty five points in the fourth quarter, they're down twenty
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: one to three and a half, and then they come
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: back and win the game outright. I mean, it's just
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: that stadium, it's just a lover of atmospheres. Looks incredible
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: on television. I mean, that place is rocking. It just
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: feels a little more potent than like what we saw
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: with the Commanders. I think they're a little bit better,
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: but defensively, same type thing. They're just not very good.
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: They can't cover a soul, which you would think in
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: theory is not good against Puka. Nakua's probably the best
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: receiver in the league so far this year, and Davante's back.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: The tight ends can all catch. I mean, their running
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: backs are good, but stafford Man just has these weird stretches.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be cold. I'm just taking the Bears in
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: the points. Don't feel right about it, but how can
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: you go against them right now? With the way that
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: everything keeps shaking out every single game.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: It's it's insane. I what I played here, this total
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: came down a bit. It's hard for me to see
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: either one of these defenses getting stops. I played some
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: rams over twenty six and a half points, so over
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: twenty six and a half their team total. This is
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: a team versus if you remove the nine, if you
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: remove the top five defenses from their schedule, so Seattle,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Houston and Philly, I mean, then they scored twenty six
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: versus Philly and we missed two field goals. They averaged
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: thirty two and a half points per game. They got
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: the twenty seven and eleven of the fourteen and a
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: couple of them they just didn't have to and one
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: of them against Seattle, they put up thirty eight and.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: They led the league in scoring anyway, right with the factory,
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: and so I.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Think they get the twenty seven plus. I mean, this
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: is a Bears defense that's you know, twenty eighth PVOA,
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: twenty six, success rate, thirtieth and epa. If you remove turnovers,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: their turnover luck is extreme. It's not gonna last forever.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: They're twenty third points allowed despite leading the lead league
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: in turnover margin. Additionally, you know you have there is
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: some concern with the Stafford finger and then the in
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: the cold, the Adams handstring. In the cold, you're gonna
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: see a lot of stats of Stafford has struggled historically
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: in the cold, like his win loss recer. But a
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: lot of those games were when he was with a
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: bad Lions team. Remember last year he almost beat the
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl champion in Philly in the snow, and he
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: looked great. I don't it's hard for him.
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: Because he had the Ravens game a couple of years ago,
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: remember when he was unreal. I mean, it's like one
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: of the best games I've ever seen. Definitely the last
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: like five years is as good of a game as
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: you're gonna see. I know he didn't the end it
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: on a pick, but he was fantastic in that game.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they should have won that game. So I think
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: he'll be fine. This Bears defense, they don't get pressure.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: They're now missing t. J. Edwards as well at linebacker.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: Their depth of linebackers really shaky. They really just can't
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: get any Their rundy is really really bad. One of
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: my favorite props. I like some Korm props, but Korm
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: over eleven and a half longest rush he's I mean,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: he's had I think twenty three rushes of ten plus yards,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: one carry at least twelve yards, and ten of the
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: seventeen games that he's played, if you're a movie opener,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: only had one carry and that's despite not getting an
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: increased workload until like Week seven. But Kevin Dotson I
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: think is going to be back. That's huge. He's one
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: of the best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: They missed him down the stretch. That'll help their run game,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: and the Bears give up tons of run explosives. One
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: of the worst defenses in the league at giving up
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: big runs. So yeah, I think that they'll I like
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: that Korm. I think the Bears allowed a run of
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: twelve plus and fifteen of the eighteen games to non quarterbacks.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Multiple backs in the same game got a run of
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: twelve plus yards in seven of their eighteen games, and
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: like the teams that didn't were like the Browns. Even
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: though Shador standers said a twenty yard run, they just
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: I mean Gino Smith had a twenty yard run against them.
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: So I think Korm can have a big day here.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: I like his longest rush over eleven and a half.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: I like the Rams to score, but you're right, I
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: could the Bears match them is there's some Bears magic
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: and you have these two offensive gurus going up against
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: vulnerable defenses. I think it's gonna be a ton of
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: explosive plays, which is good for an over so I
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: don't I think this total has come down a bit
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: too much. Now. I get it's gonna be like freezing cold.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: Both teams could rely on the run a bit more,
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: but not enough people are talking about the Rams defense
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: has dropped off significantly over the first twelve weeks of
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: the year. They were number one in EPA per play,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: But I kept saying, like, I think this defense is
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: a bit overrated, because I don't believe we were saying this.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: We don't believe, really believe in their secondary, which is
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: the weak point. They were number one of the EPA
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: play But you gotta remember they played the Bucks, and
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: the Bucks offense was bad from Week seven off if
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: Baker got hurt, right and that game was just a joke.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: They played the Ravens when it was Cooper Rush. They
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: played Stroud when like two of his offensive in Week
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: one and two of his offensive linemen got ruled out
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: right before the game, they had to shuffle everyone around.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: They played cam Warden, the second start Spencer Rattler, so
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: like the first you know, half of the season, they
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: benefited from a lot of opposing quarterback and offensive line situations.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: And then over the final seven games. Over the last
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: seven games, including last week in the Wildcard, they're twentieth
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: in EPA per play. And they faced the Panthers twice
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: and the Cardinals twice, so it's not like they were
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: facing nothing, but these elite offensive teams, they're giving up
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: a ton of explosive plays. The secondary is vulnerable. The
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Bears can hit those, So yeah, I think the Rams
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: can do whatever they want here, Like they can run
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: the ball, they could go heavy personnel. The Bears struggle
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: in that aspect as well, but Caleb Williams keeps improving
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: this Ben Johnson offense. I think he's gonna be aggressive
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: as well in like fourth downs. I think the Bacon
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: hit explosives keep the pressure on Los Angeles. So yeah,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: don't don't doubt the Bears every one. I always sweet
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: Every Bears game is the same, but I did play
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: some Rams team total over some and then some corn
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: props should be a go on though again between two
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: awesome offensive mines.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: Well, I won't talk to you until after the National
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: Championship game. It feels like there are like two plays.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: Indiana blows out basically everybody except Ohio State. So it's
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: like just take down and the points eight and a
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: half and they'd win by fifteen twenty points. Or it's
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: like take Miami money line, like cause if the game's closed,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: like Miami would have a chance to win, right, But
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: it's like, do I trust Mario's team with a bunch
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: of penalties? I guess the players just take Indiana in
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: this spot though, It's like, is it just gonna turn
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: out to be? They played in the playoffs and blew
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: everyone out after playing that close game against Olio State.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a tough game. I mean, I make it.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: I make this spread down. I'm just I've been aggressively
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: up upgrading Indiana. I make this spread ten on a
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: neutral But I'm struggling to determine what do I make
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: the home field advantage here? So, like I don't think
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: it's a full home field advantage, so I don't know.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: I'm using like a point and a half, so like
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: I make it like eight and a half, which is
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: where it is. But I don't know how like what
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: the home field should be here, Like they are playing
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: at home, but I imagine, like this is Indiana's all in year.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: They have the largest alumni base of any school in
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: the country, so this crowd is going to be I
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: don't know, split, So Miami's technically the road team, which
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: was funny. So I don't really know what make home
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: field but this this just could be a scenario. Every
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: once in a while in college football, you have a
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: team where the market never catches up to twenty nineteen LSU.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: Every week you were talking about the sharps are you
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: would have sharps. The sharp's even bet against LSU and
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: the championship against Clemson, there was a lot of sharp
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: money against LSU again, and all this team would do
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: was cover, cover, cover. I lost a lot of money
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: betting against.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: F ther I don't even remember. They blew Clemson out
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: in that game.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: Blew them out. Yeah, they were blowing every They blew
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: everybody out, even though their defense was bad, and that's
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: what a lot of people are seeing. But their offense
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: was just so good it didn't matter.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: It turns out they had Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, like, yeah, pretty good combo.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Pretty decent. So but yeah, the market just could never
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: catch up to how good they were. And that just
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: might be the case for Indiana. That's my my fear
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: for I don't think Miami's gonna be able to like
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: they might be to run the ball a little bit.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: I played the under here. I played on some under
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: forty and a half under forty eight I did. Both
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: these teams are very slow. I do have a lot
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: of respect for the Miami defense. I do think that
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: they'll be able to get some pressure. That that right
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: side of the Indiana offensive line is a bit vulnerable.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: The Miami defense is real, and then the Indiana defense,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: they're so buttoned up it's very hard to consistently run
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: against them. Carson Beck has not been great in the playoff.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Why he doesn't gonna do much, It's really on the defense.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: But I think this will be more of a rock
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: fight type of game, lower scoring, there's no reason. There's
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: no need for Indiana to run it up at the
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: end like to show off, which sometimes comes into play
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: in their games. But I think I think this will
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: be more of a defensive game, field position game. The temph,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: the pace will be very slow. Miami's going to play
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: how Miami does. They're going to want to just run, run,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: control the clock, play field position, rely on that defense.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: But I think Indiana will get Beck into just too
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: many known passing downs and then their pressure packages. Miami
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: is a really good offensive line that's a great battle watch,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: but their pressure and blitz packages are incredible, and Beck
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: is not good under pressure. So I think it's going
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: to be a struggle for the Miami offense. So I
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: did play the under I think I'm spot on with
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: the number. I couldn't talk anyone out. I've heard good
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: cases for Miami and good cases for Indiana. It just
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: comes down to how historically dominant this Indiana team is.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: But my biggest fear is what you brought up. Indiana
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: is so buttoned up that they're just execution monsters. Yeah,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: and I mean on third down. Their third down offense
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: is historically good fifty five percent. That's a range you
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: rarely see, like five or six teams over the past
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: ten years. Their giveaway, they never turned the ball over,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: they never get penalized. And this is a Miami team
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: that's undisciplined, right outside the top one hundred penalties back
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: at times can put the ball on Harm's way.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: So that well, their whole thing is like violent or crazy,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: we're tough, where Signette's like, we're like the Navy Seals
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: were dialed. We execute, we don't fuck around. He doesn't
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: he doesn't use violent like Mario's uses violence every time
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: he talks. Signetti's much more like execution like Nick right,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: And then the violence is just part of that the
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: way they play, but they the coaches talk dramatically different
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: like Mario looks like he wants to get in at
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: this fight, where Signetti looks like he wants to get
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: into a chess match.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: Yep. So now it's very well put so that might
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: end up being the difference.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: But in fairness, Mario does have a Island team too,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: so it's like they can physically hang like they're not
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: going to be shoved around. They're like Ohio State, right
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: where physically they're not going to be intimidated by and
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: get shoved around by Indiana like Bam and Oregon did.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this game is gonna play out more
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: like Ohia. It's gonna play out similar to Ohio State Indiana.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: Then Miami would have a chance if they don't have
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: like ten penalties right.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: Yes, or Beck doesn't turn it over, like they have
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: to play clean to win this game, which you can't have,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: you know, one hundred and eight penalty yards and you
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: can't turn the ball over. So I think they're going
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: to be cautious as long as like this game is
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: close playfield position, I think both defenses will give each
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: opposing offense some issues. Now, Indiana seems they seemingly never
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: drop a contested catch. I mean Sarad is incredible. This
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: Becker kid has really come on as a fantask threat,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: which is added another layer to their offense. But yeah,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: I played some under. I played some Mendoza under rushing
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: yards like eighteen and a half. The you'll try to
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: scramble some, but I mean the Miami defense has allowed
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: They played fourteen games against FBS opponents. Opposing quarterbacks have
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: ran it one hundred and twenty seven times for fourteen yards,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: so that obviously includes sacks. But they've given up fourteen
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: total rushing yards. And they played you know, Watson and Drones.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: At Votec. They played Byron Brown, who had a thousand
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: yards rushing for USF. They played the Syracuse guys who
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: could run. They played Costianos of Florida State. They played Chamblis.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: I mean Chamblas had seven yards rushing. They played a
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: ton of Marcel Reid, so they played a ton of
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: mobile quarterbacks. They give up fourteen yards. That includes a
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: ton of sacks. Now Mendoza had but he averaged like
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: eight do you average like eighteen and a half per game,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: which is where this line is set. But he was
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: only sacked like one plus one point four times, per game.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: I think that could go up to like three or
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: four and you could get some major negative sack yard.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: I mean he went up against Wisconsin, he had six
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: rushes for negative twenty four yards. He was sacked five times.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Against Ohio State, he was sacked three times, ended with
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: negative three rushing yards. So yeah, I played some under
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: rushing yards there surat anytime touchdown if you're looking for
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: like a part of any time, probably pace. But that's
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: around even money. He got scores everything every week. I
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: think he scored like ten weeks in a row. Hit
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: that back shoulder. It's like a cheat code. But yeah,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: I'm struggling what to do with home field. So but
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: I think I'm close to the line. I won't bet Miami.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: They're like, I wouldn't even bet Miami if it's ten.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: I would need more than ten because I've just seen
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: I've seen Indiana and they just feel to me like
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: a team that you don't want to get in front of.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: So even if Miami went, I won't have any regret
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: if Miami covers or were wins that I didn't fade Indiana.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: So yeah, if you made me better, I bet Indiana.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: But I do like the under I like it.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna take Indiana. Okay, sucky. I got
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: my wife screaming. I mean I got to help get
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: ready for this, uh, this endeavor we're about to take
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: off on. So I'll be joining you soon into the
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: fatherhood category. And enjoy the rest of the week and
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: enjoy the games and I will talk to you soon.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, good luck which you all good health, And enjoy
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: the NFL playoffs from the hospital speed. It feels like
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: like like a camp. Yeah, so enjoy it, but I
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: hope everything goes well. And talk to you next week. Brother.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it. See it
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: The volume