Latest / FDD Morning Brief / Toppling Tehran | feat. Emily Schrader

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Toppling Tehran | feat. Emily Schrader · FDD Morning Brief

0:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Good morning, it's Monday, August 17th, the multi-front war in the Middle East is now 1,000 and 45 days old on your host Jonathan Chanzer.
0:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Hope everybody had a nice weekend.
0:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the F.G.D.
0:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Morning Brief.
0:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Some action this weekend out of Lebanon.
0:26
[SPEAKER_01]: A his ball attack wounded three IDF soldiers in the Navati region.
0:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Southern Lebanon, Israelis were not having any of that, so they responded with some serious airstrikes killed 11, including a reported force civilians.
0:38
[SPEAKER_01]: The government of Lebanon, which has been negotiating with Israel, has since issued a rather harsh statement, saying that this was in Israeli violation of the ceasefire.
0:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Never mind that his ball of violated the ceasefire before his realm responded.
0:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I think President Joseph Aoun knows this and his statements are intended to placate the Lebanese public, but now the head of his baller, nine cost him his piling on, saying that the Israeli Lebanese diplomatic framework is a quote, humiliation and quote.
1:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm fairly confident that the Lebanon Israel talks will continue regardless and that promises to keep further humiliation on his Bala with any luck that process will lead eventually to a military defeat of the Iran-back terror group in Lebanon.
1:21
[SPEAKER_01]: The saga continues in the West Bank village of Kostra near Nablus, or as these railings call it, Chlem, it's been dragging out for more than a week with Israeli extremists laying siege to Palestinian homes.
1:32
[SPEAKER_01]: The IDF intervened and yet the situation remains unresolved.
1:37
[SPEAKER_01]: These really government wants to downplay the actions of a small group of extremists, but it's hard to wash off the staying care of folks.
1:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Israel is a democratic country of laws.
1:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And while this territory is technically outside of Israel's geopolitical borders, it's still under Israeli military rule, West Bank's settlement proponents, like Israeli ambassador to the United States, E.L. Letter, and American ambassador to Israel, Mike Hawkeby have issued condemnations, and it's hard to disagree with them.
2:05
[SPEAKER_01]: one can assert that Israelis have the right to live in this area, which has centuries of historical significance for the Jewish people, but it's also more than justified to oppose unprovoked attacks against not combatants.
2:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me also add this.
2:19
[SPEAKER_01]: The longstanding dispute over the West Bank or Judea and Samaria, as the Israelis call it, is taking its toll.
2:25
[SPEAKER_01]: It has eroded political support for Israel in America.
2:29
[SPEAKER_01]: It may be time for Israel to make some painful decisions about the permanent status of these territories, one way or the other, annex or don't.
2:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Look, not all settlements hold the same value for Israel, so the calculus is not simple, but indecision is a recipe for continued violence, confusion, and diplomatic tension.
2:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And that benefits nobody in the end, except for maybe Hamas and its army of useful idiot propagandists.
2:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, for your headlines, headline one, the rump regime in Iran claims that the government of Qatar is holding three of its pilots that were shot down in the open stages of the most recent war.
3:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Qatar denies this, whoever's telling the truth, it's a fairly odd set of circumstances given that the Iranian regime on the one hand has been attacking Qatar with drones and missiles.
3:15
[SPEAKER_01]: On the other hand, it's been shaking down the Qataris for cash payoffs with promises that it would help the attacks.
3:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, and don't forget that Qatar and Iran remain the two primary patrons of Hamas, which is the terror group that set this entire war and motion back on October 7, 2023.
3:33
[SPEAKER_01]: As for the pilots, I don't think they should be released until the permanent end of the conflict has been reached.
3:38
[SPEAKER_01]: In the meantime, I hope US intelligence is pumping these pilots for all the information we can get.
3:44
[SPEAKER_01]: headline to the hoothees are still added in Yemen, the port city of Moka controlled by the good guys in southern Yemen, continues to get hammered with hoothe the missiles, the Iran-back terror group appears to be dragging Yemen back into civil war, which sounds terrible to me, but if there is a silver lining here, it could be that the South Yemenis, the Saudis, the Emirates, and others in the region,
4:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Finally, drop the gloves and knock out this nasty bunch of anti-western anti-Israel, anti-semite terrorists, once and for all.
4:13
[SPEAKER_01]: The good Yemenis apparently took out 200 hoothees over the last two days, but don't pop the bubbly yet folks.
4:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Wash for the widening of this war beyond Yemen's borders, attacks on Saudi soil, not to mention ships,
4:30
[SPEAKER_01]: headline three a Hamas delegation led by chief psycho Khalil al-hayah began meeting with the Egyptian intelligence chief on Sunday.
4:38
[SPEAKER_01]: This is all part of a process through which Hamas may and let me just stress the word may here.
4:43
[SPEAKER_01]: It may be willing to lay down its weapons in an negotiated settlement brokered by Donald Trump's board of peace.
4:49
[SPEAKER_01]: From my perspective, the group doesn't have much choice in the matter.
4:52
[SPEAKER_01]: It controls
4:54
[SPEAKER_01]: of the Gaza Strip and its fighting force has been reduced to a bunch of poorly trained teenagers who are more adept at popping pimples than popping off rockets.
5:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Yesterday, Al-Arabia reported that Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner also met with Hamas representatives, his mother must be proud.
5:12
[SPEAKER_01]: As part of these talks, he then took a meeting with his really Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
5:16
[SPEAKER_01]: His father-in-law says he would prefer that Israel's
5:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think is anybody's completely buying that yet, but I do think we may be trending in the right direction.
5:29
[SPEAKER_01]: And headline four, okay, just two quick hitters.
5:32
[SPEAKER_01]: The Israeli's apparently struck a number of terror targets in Syria over the last several hours, and I'm also seeing reports that Iran used the 60-day ceasefire to prepare for an uptick and offensive attacks.
5:45
[SPEAKER_01]: No surprise there, but still, kind of scary, something that we're going to continue to watch.
5:49
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, it's time for today's interview, the main event.
5:52
[SPEAKER_01]: The main event is with Emily Schrader.
5:54
[SPEAKER_01]: She is in his rail-based journalist and activist, focused almost exclusively on Iran.
5:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Her social media presence is, as the kids say, lit.
6:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Highly recommended.
6:04
[SPEAKER_01]: She's an anchor on ILTV, and she's a regular on J.N.S.
6:07
[SPEAKER_01]: and she appears somewhat less regularly on this program, but to be clear, she is a repeat offender.
6:13
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's bring her back this morning to talk about what's happening in Iran and the chances of regime change in that embattled country.
6:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the FDD Morning Brief, Emily Schreier.
6:27
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, to be here.
6:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Good to have you all right.
6:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just start with kind of a top-line question.
6:33
[SPEAKER_01]: The basics, if you will.
6:35
[SPEAKER_01]: How is this war playing out from your perspective?
6:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Who's winning?
6:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Who's got the upper hand?
6:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I really, I don't really know who's winning.
6:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I know who's losing.
6:46
[SPEAKER_00]: First and foremost, the people of Iran.
6:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Secondly, I would say the people of Israel and the state of Israel as a whole.
6:53
[SPEAKER_00]: But in terms of who's winning on the entire issue between the United States and the Islamic Republic, it's a toss-up.
7:00
[SPEAKER_00]: There are definitely things that the administration is doing right.
7:03
[SPEAKER_00]: There's definitely things that they're missing and they're leaving a lot of room open for the Islamic Republic to rebuild, restock, rearm, and that's exactly what we're seeing.
7:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We know that they have even in recent weeks been plotting to carry out more attacks.
7:18
[SPEAKER_00]: They've been openly threatening.
7:20
[SPEAKER_00]: The most recent one was yesterday with the head of the armed forces that's
7:27
[SPEAKER_00]: openly stating that any Iran who kills or kidnaps an American service member will qualify for $30,000 US dollars.
7:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, for Iranians right now as the economy is in complete freefall, that's an insane amount of money.
7:41
[SPEAKER_00]: But it also speaks to the fact that the Islamic Republic
7:44
[SPEAKER_00]: for whatever method they've developed still has the ability to fund these kinds of things well the people are literally in some cases cannot put food on the table and we're not talking about very impoverished communities.
7:54
[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking about in some cases middle class or upper middle class communities inside of Iran that simply can't pay the bills.
8:01
[SPEAKER_00]: They literally cannot afford bread.
8:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They're paying on installments.
8:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So the situation is catastrophic already for the Iranian
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: definitely they're losing the longer that this goes on the way it is.
8:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think their frustration, their core frustration is that the United States and also Israel, but primarily the United States, because Israel's into involved in the conflict right now is not finishing the job.
8:24
[SPEAKER_00]: That's been the request and the demand from day one.
8:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's simply not happening with all this preoccupation with making some kind of a deal, whether it's over the straight of hormones or whether it's over the
8:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, let me ask you, I mean, the deal, right, or the ongoing offers of deals, it appears to be born of a certain kind of weakness from the US.
8:49
[SPEAKER_01]: We hear a lot about munition shortages.
8:52
[SPEAKER_01]: We hear a lot about the price of oil.
8:55
[SPEAKER_01]: We hear a lot about the midterms coming up.
8:58
[SPEAKER_01]: How much stock do you put in these reports?
9:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that why we're negotiating or is there something else that's going on?
9:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's very difficult to know from the position of someone outside either administration exactly what's going on first and foremost, but I do think that all of those factors are impacting the decision making of the United States definitely the midterms are an issue.
9:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we can't pretend that they're not.
9:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And that may be a major fact or impacting President Trump's decision making, but my big problem is less about what actually is and more about what the appearances are.
9:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that the United States has allowed the perception to be a weakness.
9:38
[SPEAKER_00]: is very, very problematic.
9:41
[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't act as a deterrent.
9:43
[SPEAKER_00]: It's actually an incentive for authoritarian regimes and anti-America regimes to implement policies that are damaging to the United States because they see the areas of weakness.
9:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's exactly how the Islamic Republic has acted.
9:55
[SPEAKER_00]: They have it responded to the United States's desire to make a deal on any of these issues with reason or logic because they're not interested in that.
10:04
[SPEAKER_00]: They're interested in advancing this hominist ideology at the end of the day.
10:08
[SPEAKER_00]: It is the hardliners running the show right now when you run.
10:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, I'm including the chief negotiator of Ali Buff in that equation.
10:15
[SPEAKER_00]: This is not someone who's moderate.
10:16
[SPEAKER_00]: It would be a mistake to consider him as moderate despite the fact that he's negotiating on these issues.
10:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So the way that the United States has allowed the narrative to be framed is a strategic mistake.
10:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And frankly,
10:28
[SPEAKER_00]: This is consistent with U.S. policy from left to right that we've seen for many decades.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: The U.S. is behind in the information warfare game, and this is a huge part of it.
10:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that we're struggling so much with subversion, be it from Qatar, in the United States, or from the Islamic Republic itself, or from Turkey, and other oppressive regimes, the fact that this has gotten to the level it has, where the public opinion literally can't support.
10:49
[SPEAKER_00]: What's in America's interest militarily?
10:52
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a national security issue.
10:55
[SPEAKER_00]: and the United States isn't approaching it that way and that is a mistake.
10:57
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, it's also a mistake that the state of Israel has made.
11:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
11:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the Israelis have more PR problems than that.
11:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Public messaging has been, I believe the word is Fadihah in Hebrew.
11:10
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a disaster.
11:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that it's interesting just parenthetically that, you know, I saw a news item over the weekend that
11:17
[SPEAKER_01]: The IRGC is supportive of the diplomatic process being led by these so-called pragmatists, but that actually shows you as there are no pragmatists and hardliners.
11:26
[SPEAKER_01]: They're one in the same, and this distinction has always been false.
11:31
[SPEAKER_01]: It always has been in this idea that we want to support the good guys against the bad guys with any terrible regime that's been waging war against the United States and Israel on the West for all these years.
11:41
[SPEAKER_01]: It is really silly.
11:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, okay.
11:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to ask you about the status of the Iranian opposition.
11:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I know you talk with folks within the opposition.
11:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I know you follow this.
11:51
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been quiet since January.
11:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And I guess for good reason, because we saw a slaughter in January of 30, 40,000 people, but I think the question that seems to be on everybody's mind right now, and I will ask you,
12:02
[SPEAKER_01]: What are the odds of a resurgence here?
12:04
[SPEAKER_01]: What are the odds of the people just talking about their frustration?
12:07
[SPEAKER_01]: You're talking about how they can't put food on the table.
12:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Talking about how they truly hate their regime.
12:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we always hear about 90 million Iranians and 75 million or more hate.
12:17
[SPEAKER_01]: their overlords.
12:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So at what point do they say enough already were coming back out?
12:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's not been a hot war for a while.
12:26
[SPEAKER_01]: We heard that, you know, well, they shouldn't, we shouldn't expect them to come out because the bombs are still dropping.
12:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the bombs are not dropping right now, at least not at the same pace, but we still see, you know, it's calm.
12:38
[SPEAKER_01]: But is it just calm on the surface and a lot happening beneath?
12:42
[SPEAKER_01]: How do we understand it?
12:44
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a lot happening underground.
12:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Definitely there will be a resurgence.
12:48
[SPEAKER_00]: The question is when?
12:50
[SPEAKER_00]: The biggest obstacle to seeing wide-scale protests in Iran is the fact that they're not armed.
12:57
[SPEAKER_00]: The fact that they don't have any form of protection and that the regime is absolutely brutal.
13:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Every single day, we're seeing executions of these protesters, we're seeing all kinds of sham trials and bogus allegations of everything from spying to terrorism to all kinds of stuff they're accusing Iranian civilians of just yesterday, there was another execution, there are multiple dozens who are on death row right now when they don't have a charge to bring forward, they will bring forward a charge of the enmity against God, which, of course, is a punishment of death.
13:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And we also saw, you said it's been quiet in the January, which is not entirely accurate.
13:33
[SPEAKER_00]: There have been some smaller scale protests.
13:36
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the most significant we saw was when there was public executions.
13:40
[SPEAKER_00]: There was a large protest that took place.
13:43
[SPEAKER_00]: The problem was, even that protest in the city, which
13:47
[SPEAKER_00]: carried out all night long because they were trying to stop the executions that were being carried out was met with bullets once again and there were people there was at least one who do who died in that protest and there were many who arrested as well so the level of brutality and cruelty against these people is a level that for most in the western world we couldn't possibly comprehend.
14:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that what's going to change that in the long term is if they have some form of protection, now that may be someone supplying arms to the Iranian people and a more organized opposition force in the form of a militia on the ground inside Iran.
14:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It may also look like having some combination of that in conjunction with, for example, the work that the state of Israel was doing to target the seas checkpoints, for example, or other IRGC forces that are on their way or are actively targeting the Iranian people in the process of protests.
14:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's one of the most important steps that we saw during the height of this war is that we started to see Israel right, right before Donald Trump.
14:46
[SPEAKER_00]: declared that there was a ceasefire, that is what Israel was focusing on while the United States was focusing on other targets and I think that that is crucial, whether it's Israel or another country that is crucial to the success of the Iranian people and standing up against this dictatorship.
15:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think we're going to see without some sort of large militia which might take several years at least to develop within Iran.
15:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think we're going to see a successful overthrow of the regime unless there is some kind of external support.
15:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't mean external support in the form of targeted assassinations or degrading the ballistic missile program or even targeting the nuclear program.
15:23
[SPEAKER_00]: None of those things help the people.
15:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean direct assistance to the people of Iran.
15:28
[SPEAKER_00]: In the form of what I was talking about targeting their oppressors in real time.
15:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
15:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I want to talk about Israel's role in all of this because I do think it's important.
15:36
[SPEAKER_01]: But I just want to follow up on one element of the opposition.
15:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I know you've interviewed raise a shot Pahabi, this so-called Crown Prince of Iran.
15:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Exciled Crown Prince.
15:47
[SPEAKER_01]: He's gone pretty quietly.
15:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And he was, I think at one point, identified as the guy that could, I don't know, rally the troops.
15:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Get people to come out.
15:57
[SPEAKER_01]: When I understand, he was opposed to arming the Kurdish opposition.
16:01
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got his own kind of demands for all of us.
16:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Is he a problem?
16:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Can he make a comeback?
16:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Does he have relevance?
16:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, tell us about what's going on here because at one point, he was a big story.
16:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Now he doesn't seem to be one.
16:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's very much still relevant.
16:17
[SPEAKER_00]: The biggest problem that I see with the Crown Prince is that a lot of the international community didn't really accept him, which is their prerogative, but at the same time we can't deny the fact that there is only one opposition figure that people inside of Iran are even familiar with and that the majority of them
16:34
[SPEAKER_00]: still support, at least for a transition leadership, even if they don't support him as a leader of Iran or they're not monarchists themselves.
16:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think that should be discounted.
16:43
[SPEAKER_00]: The will of the Iranian people is something that the international community has ignored for a very long time.
16:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's a strategic mistake.
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is a potential ally ship that can be built in order to undermine the Islamic Republic.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: and we're missing an opportunity with that.
16:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that a lot of the international community missed an opportunity by not doubling down on supporting the Crown Prince from day one because it is a very important tool that the international community can use to
17:11
[SPEAKER_00]: move the needle on the issue of Iran and the Islamic Republic.
17:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And we see even in terms of internet connectivity, we saw at the beginning of the protests when he did call for Iranians to go to the streets.
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw millions of them.
17:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And we also can see in his content that in the videos where he called people to go to the streets initially, I don't remember what the numbers are now in, but it was in the tens of millions of views.
17:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And the second the internet was cut off, all of a sudden, all of his views dropped to below two million.
17:39
[SPEAKER_00]: which tells you something that millions of people inside of Iran are very closely watching his calls to action.
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And that is something that we should use.
17:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a missed opportunity.
17:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, does that mean that he's the answer to everything?
17:51
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not for me to decide.
17:52
[SPEAKER_00]: That's for someone else to decide.
17:54
[SPEAKER_00]: The Iranian people, ideally.
17:55
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that he plays an important role that he has the ear and the love of many of the people inside of Iran.
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that that's something that the question should tap into a little bit more.
18:05
[SPEAKER_00]: He has been fairly quietly, although he has called explicitly to arm the Iranian people.
18:11
[SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't supported the Kurdish plan that was brought forward that ultimately Erdogan vetoed unfortunately.
18:18
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think there are other factors that play when it comes to that, such as separatism, so it gets into a lot of other issues, but he has called to arm the Iranian people.
18:26
[SPEAKER_00]: He is still speaking out, and it remains to be seen how much of a major player he will be in this equation, but I think that if he isn't, a major part of the solution, that would be a strategic mistake.
18:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I have to say the fact that he was, at least according to reports, opposed to arming the Kurds and that he was kind of on the same side as Erdogan and maybe the Iraqis and others gives me pause, but I also understand, you know, Middle East is a complicated place, so I mean, maybe I shouldn't judge, but I will say watching this landscape and trying to figure out how to get the people of Iran armed and ready to rise up.
19:03
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe beggars can't be choosers here and I do think that that, you know, maybe something that the running opposition may need to revisit.
19:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just put it that way for another time.
19:14
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's talk about Israel.
19:15
[SPEAKER_01]: That's where you're based and are you following what's going on over there.
19:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I know these rallies have been kind of they've been kept at arms length.
19:22
[SPEAKER_01]: in this war since the first 40 days, at least for now.
19:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it does look like, well, Iran may ramp back up attacks, and be shocked if Israel's not included, although I do get the sense that the Iranians don't want to hit Israel, because they know that as soon as Israel's hit,
19:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Israel's going to drop the gloves that are going to go bananas on the Iranian regime.
19:42
[SPEAKER_01]: They're probably going to take out top leaders again and they're going to go after infrastructure and maybe economic infrastructure, all the things that I think the Iranian regime would rather not see go boom, but I, you know, I get a sense that Donald Trump wants to keep the IDF out for now.
19:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Why do you think that is and tell us what's going on?
20:03
[SPEAKER_00]: There are a number of hypotheses in regards to why the president doesn't want the IDF involved right now on fighting Iran.
20:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure that part of that calculus is the domestic situation.
20:14
[SPEAKER_00]: The fact that Israel has a very bad reputation that Israel is very much struggling even in American public opinion.
20:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And there has been an accusation from day one that this war is being fought on behalf of Israel, which is of course objectively not true.
20:28
[SPEAKER_00]: As I started this interview saying, we just saw yesterday the head of the armed forces openly calling, putting a bounty on every single American soldier in the world.
20:37
[SPEAKER_00]: That is who the regime is.
20:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Their number one target, the Great Satan, is the United States, and it always has been.
20:43
[SPEAKER_00]: This regime came to power by holding Americans hostage for 444 days.
20:47
[SPEAKER_00]: This is what they're committed to.
20:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the fact that Americans don't quite understand that in public opinion is a very big problem.
20:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a very, very big problem because they don't see what the risk is to them and how the Islamic Republic poses a threat to the United States of America.
21:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's maybe, it may be.
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, maybe part of the reason that we see the White House not wanting Israel to take such a leading role when it comes to dealing with the Islamic Republic, especially given the fact that we have intelligent sharing with the United States that we're providing them with a lot of information and resources into in regards to dealing with the Islamic Republic.
21:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And also, of course, the issue of the state of foremost is something that the United States is handling and even from day one, that wasn't part of Israel's responsibility in the joint actions that they decided to do together.
21:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Israel was doing targeted assassinations, was eroding the ballistic missile program, a little bit of the nuclear program, although we don't have the same capacity as the United States to do that.
21:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So they play different roles, but I do think that part of it is domestic considerations.
21:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I am not sure about what will happen in the coming days and months.
22:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with your your guests, your assessment, that probably if these lawmaker public is planning something, they are going to be including Israel in that equation.
22:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's obvious based on their actions in the way they've stripped other countries, but not Israel, that there is an element of fear from the Islamic Republic when it comes to
22:18
[SPEAKER_00]: is Rose Capacities to take down this regime, and I hope that Israel does return to this equation because I think Israel's a very important player in bringing down this regime and also an empowering the Iranian people.
22:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not the sole answer.
22:32
[SPEAKER_00]: That alone will not bring about regime change, but I do think it's something that can definitely help move the needle on this issue.
22:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And I hope that that happens in the very near future.
22:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we'll see it after the midterms.
22:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, here's my theory.
22:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, tell me what you think.
22:47
[SPEAKER_01]: If we have a munition shortage, which, according to a lot of reports, we do.
22:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's defensive munitions, right?
22:53
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the the anti missile systems, FAD Patriot, etc.
23:00
[SPEAKER_01]: If the Israelis get in.
23:02
[SPEAKER_01]: they are gonna unleash and then the Iranians unleash in response and they probably start attacking the entire region at a faster clip, more intensity, et cetera, likely forcing us to have to defend the skies over Israel, over our ships, over our allies, and all of the sudden we find ourselves drawing down more on those munitions.
23:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe that's what Donald Trump is trying to avoid.
23:32
[SPEAKER_01]: If for the last 60 days the Iranians have been preparing for a big onslaught doesn't matter whether Israel's in it or not in it, we're likely going to see the same result.
23:41
[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to start just darkening the skies over the entire region with all the drones and missiles that they have and we're back to where we are anyway.
23:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So it could just be that at some point Trump says, hey, come on in guys, the water's warm.
23:54
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you think about that?
23:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's definitely possible.
23:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I think one of the mistakes of US foreign policy on Iran in general has been exactly what you described Donald Trump doing.
24:05
[SPEAKER_00]: We have other considerations.
24:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And so we think maybe there's a better solution.
24:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we can make a deal.
24:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we can modify their behavior with the carrot and stick.
24:13
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not who this regime is.
24:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And they proven it time and time again.
24:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And they will prove it again now.
24:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So it is inevitable.
24:20
[SPEAKER_00]: it's just a matter of time and we need to be prepared for that reality and we also need to be preparing the American public for that reality.
24:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we saw what happened.
24:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, it's going to be more difficult.
24:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Your gas prices may increase before they decrease, but this is something that's necessary for the safety and security first and foremost of all American citizens.
24:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And after that, for the rest of the world as well, I think it's a mistake to focus only on the military front.
24:45
[SPEAKER_00]: There's also the economic front and this is something the United States is still doing very well.
24:49
[SPEAKER_00]: The blockade is crucially important and it can very much degrade the regime, but ultimately we are going to see some kind of confrontations sooner or later, even if it doesn't happen until the next presidency, there will be confrontation because that's what this regime believes in and they're not going to modify their behavior and nothing has worked before and nothing will work in the future.
25:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think, given the fact that assuming the reports are true about a shortage of munitions, that an alternative thing that the United States and other allies could do is arming the Iranian people, which would put a different element into the equation that could assist the United States that could preoccupy the Islamic Republican could pose a very credible threat that then we can walk in and support them.
25:32
[SPEAKER_00]: on but it doesn't seem that Trump has that same vision of changing the regime and I genuinely believe that this is a strategic mistake and that we need to reconsider that one way or the other whatever way it happens it is what needs to happen because as I've said you can't change this regime's behavior on the basis of making a deal.
25:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I'm not sure that economic pressure will do it alone, and I do think that putting pressure on it militarily, especially forcing it to defend itself from way down sounds like a smart move that's I think we're probably in agreement on that.
26:05
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, before I let you go, just briefly, what are the Iranian people need when we keep talking about supporting the Iranian opposition.
26:13
[SPEAKER_01]: What does that mean in practicality?
26:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, first and foremost, somebody needs to arm these people.
26:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Someone needs to figure out a plan to be able to smuggle arms into some of the groups that are working underground.
26:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I know that there are some that are working, but they're just very, very ill-equipped.
26:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And we also need coordination.
26:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We need someone to take leadership.
26:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is another way hypothetically.
26:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that this is happening, but hypothetically, an idea that they could do is partnering with Reza Pahlevi.
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, that doesn't mean he's going to be the leader of Iran, but if we were able to formulate something to assist the people in practical terms, and as I stated, he's called for Army and Iranian people, we could have a very different reality.
26:52
[SPEAKER_00]: The fact that Israel already had partnerships with some of the Kurdish opposition that was within Iraq and also parts that were within Iran, that's perhaps one step, but it's missing a huge element of what's happening on the ground inside Iran, and I think that it would have been
27:09
[SPEAKER_00]: and probably very controversial and ultimately not successful because you have to understand that within Iran the issue of separatism is a huge huge issue for everyone from the majority of the country, whether religious or not, whether for the regime or against the regime.
27:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And so to not take that into account is a major mistake on that front.
27:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's okay to work with Kurdish groups within Iran.
27:31
[SPEAKER_00]: note that I said within Iran, not Iraqi Kurdish groups, and it's okay to work with the other ethnic minority groups that are within Iran, but they need to work together.
27:40
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what we need.
27:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Some sort of unity coalition that can bring these groups together, even if it's a militia to stand against the Islamic Republic and have the people do it themselves.
27:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And I also want to emphasize that
27:51
[SPEAKER_00]: The people of Iran from day one are not calling on someone else to liberate them.
27:56
[SPEAKER_00]: They have said repeatedly, we will do it ourselves, we want to do it ourselves.
28:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It's that they don't have the ability, they need assistance, they don't need someone else to do it for them.
28:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that the first order for resolving this is figuring out a solution to empowering them with arms, and then as a secondary solution,
28:14
[SPEAKER_00]: figuring out technical options for ensuring the internet access is available to these groups if and when they decide to lead the charge against the regime.
28:23
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, the saga continues.
28:25
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll have you back.
28:26
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure in another couple of weeks, a couple of months we'll see where we are with all of this, but not of it's simple, not of it's easy, never has been.
28:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you Emily Schrader for joining us again on the FTD Morning
28:41
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, and with that, this Monday episode is done.
28:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's hoping for a week of positive and inspiring news.
28:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not holding my breath, of course.
28:49
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you want to see for yourself, how things are going between now and Wednesday's episode, head on over to mptd.org for the latest updates from our experts.
28:57
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29:02
[SPEAKER_01]: will make you smarter than those kind of chic memes that everybody seems to be posting right now.
29:07
[SPEAKER_01]: God, I'm getting dumber with each one of them.
29:09
[SPEAKER_01]: They're definitely less formulaic on our sides.
29:12
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29:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, thank you from the bottom of our hearts.
29:19
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see you Wednesday.
29:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I hope we back with more headlines, more analysis, and another interview.
29:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Actually, this time out of Israel as well.
29:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Until then, I'm Jonathan Shanzer signing off as always for FD.