Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 102 - 8/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 102 - 8/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 102 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:33
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
0:36
week. We're winding down the month of
0:38
August, getting one day closer to the NFL and college football
0:41
returning. And did you guys know, kind of
0:44
creeping up on us here. But college football kicks off
0:47
on Saturday. That's right, Florida State,
0:50
Georgia Tech, SMU, Nevada, Delaware State.
0:53
Hawaii is actually a midnight game.
0:55
You know, it's always funny that, you know, stay up late and
0:58
watch the Hawaii sweat. You know, the night isn't over
1:00
until Hawaii plays. And I was actually reading
1:02
something about how Delaware State missed their flight to
1:05
Hawaii. And we've seen this line move
1:07
further to Hawaii. They open laying 38 1/2.
1:09
Now it's up to like 39 1/2 or 40.
1:12
So I don't have any bets for you yet, but just goes to show you
1:15
it. We're that much closer to
1:17
college football, which is again, best time of year,
1:20
including the NFL. So a lot to get to on today's
1:23
podcast. I have a 5 pack of sweats for
1:25
you. It's going to be all baseball.
1:27
I got four money lines here on the Major League Baseball slate
1:30
as well as one total. And if you guys know me, you
1:33
know that I try not to force totals.
1:34
To me, totals are the kind of bet that you don't go searching
1:37
for, you let it find you. And I found one game here
1:40
tonight that's juice to the under.
1:42
That's got two teams who are cash and unders left and right.
1:45
Hopefully they can get an under 7 1/2 here tonight.
1:47
So stay for that SO4 money lines one total and we'll be hitting
1:51
on at all in episode one O 2 of the all systems go pod powered
1:55
by rhythm. Now, as they say, all good
1:57
things must come to an end. Had a good winning streak going
2:00
sadly last night just didn't get the brakes to go our way One and
2:03
3 -, 2.13 units did have a nice hit with the Tampa Bay Rays late
2:08
night. That was a nothing, nothing
2:09
game. And Siri, no, not Siri to speak
2:12
into your iPhone, but Jose Siri hit a Homer to give the Rays A1
2:16
nothing win for us, which was nice.
2:18
But that was pretty much all we got.
2:20
Phillies let us down. Had a good sharp blind move,
2:22
even beat the closing line quite a bit.
2:24
And that one was frustrating to me because it got Philly.
2:27
What do we get? I'm like -145 think they close
2:30
like almost as high as -160 so sadly couldn't get anything
2:34
going with the bats. Phillies let us down.
2:36
The Nationals. Give me a break, man.
2:38
The Nats were sharp, his attack a big sharp steam and lost three
2:41
to 1 to the second worst Rd. team in baseball to Colorado.
2:44
So that was frustrating. And then just to, you know, put
2:47
a cherry on top of the frustration cake or frustration
2:50
ice cream cone store Mystics over 161.
2:54
It landed 160. So again, goes to show you how
2:57
good the odds makers are at setting the numbers.
2:59
But what I was frustrated about is the fact that the Mystics
3:02
went 13 of 19 from the free throw stripe, 68% Come on man,
3:07
you make two more free throws, we cash are over at least one
3:10
and we push, but sadly couldn't get that over either.
3:13
So of course in sports betting, every day is a challenge.
3:16
When you're winning, it's a challenge.
3:17
You hear me say it all the time. But I think it's important to
3:20
know and remember every day is a challenge.
3:22
When you're winning, it's a challenge to continue to win.
3:24
When you have a bad night, like last night, you know, tough
3:26
night, things don't go your way. It's a challenge to wake up the
3:29
next day with a positive attitude, an optimistic yet
3:33
disciplined approach and see if we can get back in the greens.
3:36
That's what I'm looking toward to today.
3:38
So let's see if we can get three out of five bets and eke out a
3:41
winning night on the Major League Baseball diamond.
3:43
So without further ado, let's get right to it.
3:46
First game on the board for me. If you want to sweat it,
3:48
Minnesota, Twinkies and the San Diego Padres.
3:51
Now this is kind of a early game, a little bit. 6:40 PM
3:54
Eastern Time, first pitch and really setting the stage here.
3:57
We have the Padres red hot in the second-half.
3:59
They're 72 and 55. They've won the first two games
4:02
of this three-game interleague series.
4:04
They won the opener five to three, taking care of business
4:07
as a -, 175 home favorite. Then they won again yesterday,
4:10
7:00 to 5:00 as a plus one O 5 home dog.
4:13
So for tonight's series finale pitching matchup, we have the
4:16
Twins who are 70 and 56. They're going to go with Simeon
4:19
Woods Richardson. He's four and three with a 3.77
4:23
ERA. He'll be opposed by the righty
4:25
Matt Waldron, who's 7 and 10 with a 4.29 ERA.
4:29
What do we see across the board here?
4:31
Well, short number here, Opener for San Diego and the lines
4:35
going in their favor. So I'm gonna go San Diego to
4:37
hopefully earn the sweep and get another win here tonight.
4:40
Padres opened around a -, 120 home favorite.
4:43
Now we're seeing the Padres up to -125 and some shops even
4:46
inching toward -130 So pretty much consistent movement in
4:50
favor of San Diego. Also kind of tells me that, hey,
4:53
at that price, red hot San Diego team, especially at home.
4:56
And I'm gonna give you some more numbers why you'll be a little
4:59
bit more confident here playing San Diego.
5:01
But the lines only gone toward the Padres and a good kind of a
5:04
short number here to sweat the Padres on the money line.
5:07
So I got him at -125. Now the pods are getting around
5:11
65% of money line bets. So getting about 2/3 of bets.
5:15
Technically the public play. But when I look at public, you
5:18
know, pro versus Joe, you can always kind of just make a quick
5:22
distinction on the percentage of bets, how high or low and then
5:25
look at the line move, like 65% of bets, you know, 510 cent move
5:29
tells me it's not just public, it's also smart money moving
5:32
that number. Padres have the better bats.
5:35
I'm going to really hope the Padres bats continue to show up
5:39
here. They're hitting 265 on the year
5:41
versus 252 for the Twins. San Diego, seven and three.
5:45
Over the last 10 games, they're hitting 270.
5:48
Minnesota's five and five hitting 255.
5:51
But here's where it gets good. Padres in the month of August as
5:54
a favorite. They're 12 and 475 percent, 25%
5:58
ROI at home as a home favorite in the month of August 6 and
6:02
186% with a 37% ROI. Also, the Twins, really
6:08
interesting here with the twins, when they're favored, they're
6:10
one of the best favorites, best chalk teams in baseball.
6:12
But when they're a dog, they don't play great.
6:14
The twins are just 13 and 24 as a dog, 35% -, 24% ROI.
6:20
They're seven and 18 as a road dog, only 28% with the almost
6:25
-40% ROI. And by the way, San Diego, we
6:29
know they got a pretty good line up here.
6:31
They're hitting 273 against righty's, facing a righty today
6:35
and Simeon Woods Richardson, that's the best in baseball
6:38
batting average against righties.
6:39
So you add it all up here, guys. Feels like a short number here
6:42
to grab San Diego. It's not just public, it's
6:44
sharp. We got a line move.
6:45
We got some advantages here offensively as well as some some
6:49
dog favorite numbers that definitely point you toward the
6:52
Padres. So I'm going to hope that dad
6:54
gets a winner for us to start the day.
6:56
I'm going San Diego, I got the fathers at -125 keep on
7:01
cruising. I'm looking for some revenge
7:03
tonight down in hot Lana, Philadelphia, Atlanta Braves,
7:07
7:20 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
7:09
Braves come in 67 and 58. One last night, series opener, 3
7:13
to one, much to my chagrin, cashing as a + 135 home dog.
7:17
In tonight's rematch, though, the Phillies, who are 73 and 52,
7:21
they're going to go with the ready Aaron Nola.
7:23
He's 11:00 and 6:00 on the year 3.45 ERA.
7:26
Braves, meanwhile, are going to go with the lefty Max Freed,
7:29
who's seven and seven with a 3.62 ERA.
7:32
So what do we see across the market here?
7:34
Well, good sharp dog to fave line move in favor of
7:37
Philadelphia. This game opened with actually
7:39
Atlanta listed as a very short favorite.
7:42
A lot of books open Atlanta around -115 Philly plus one O 5.
7:46
Now we've pretty much flipped. Now it's Philly -110 even as
7:50
high as -115 at some shop. So you guys know the drill here.
7:53
Dog to fave line move Philly open as a dog flip to a favorite
7:57
tells us the bigger respected wagers here are going Philly in
8:00
a bounce back spot. Now the Phills are getting 71%
8:04
of bets but 81% of dollars. Nice low bets, higher dollars
8:08
bet split in addition to that steam move in their favor.
8:10
And they're matching quite a few systems here.
8:12
One would be short Rd. favorites -130 or less the sweet spot bet.
8:17
That's 186 and one 5654% with a 2% ROI.
8:22
Rd. favorites off a loss, playing an opponent off a win.
8:25
That's 148 and one O 259% with a 4% ROI.
8:30
Also didn't show up last night, but hopefully the bats can get
8:33
to Freed tonight because the Phillies have had the better
8:35
offense overall. They're hitting 257 with 607
8:39
runs scored. Braves are hitting 241 with 540
8:42
runs scored. And Max Freed, who's been a good
8:45
pitcher in his career, he struggled a bit here in the
8:47
month of August. He has a 7.9 O ERA.
8:50
He's given up twelve runs and 13.2.
8:52
And he's pitched and he's been, believe it or not, worse at home
8:55
than on the road. On the road, 3.23 ERA at home,
8:59
4.27 year right. Meanwhile, Phillies against
9:03
lefties this year, second best in baseball hitting 274.
9:06
So I'm going to go with the Phills here.
9:07
Dog to fave line move, low bets, higher dollars, bet split, bunch
9:11
of system matches. Hopefully the bats can wake up
9:13
against a lefty, which they performed pretty well this
9:15
season against lefty. So give me the Phills.
9:18
Shop around. I was able to get Philadelphia
9:20
at -110 next one for you. A classic reverse line move, a
9:25
great fade. The trendy dog opportunity.
9:27
I'm looking at a 7:45 PM Eastern Time, first pitch between the
9:30
Milwaukee Brew Crew and the Saint Louis Cardinals.
9:33
Now going to this one, Milwaukee 73 and 52.
9:37
They won last night's series opener three to two.
9:39
You look at Saint Louis, they've struggled 61 and 64.
9:43
And I'm going to give you some numbers here that create kind of
9:46
an incredible buy low, sell high opportunity.
9:49
But the first thing I noticed about this one is, OK, let's
9:52
start with a pitching match up. Tobias Myers, the righty, is
9:54
going from Milwaukee. He's six and five with a 2.81
9:58
ERA. He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson,
10:00
the veteran righty, seven and five, 4.26 ERA.
10:03
But the first thing that jumped out to me for this game is how
10:06
lopsided it was and the fact that public is all over
10:10
Milwaukee. Milwaukee Brew Crew are
10:12
currently getting 75% of money line bets.
10:16
Totally get it. You know, they got the better
10:17
record. They've actually gone, I believe
10:19
seven and one head to head against Saint Louis this year.
10:22
Saint Louis has really struggled.
10:24
They've lost what, seven of their last eight?
10:26
So it seems like an obvious bet to take Milwaukee, but the Lions
10:30
actually going towards Saint Louis.
10:31
This game opened the Cardinals a very short favorite or like a
10:34
pick em. It was like -1 O 5 -, 110 both
10:37
sides. Now we're seeing Saint Louis up
10:39
to -115 I see one shop maybe even go to going to -120.
10:44
So why is this line going to Saint Louis if the public is
10:47
hammering Milwaukee? I get it again, better record
10:50
played better as of late. But again, if you are a
10:52
data-driven better like myself, this is a indicator here of
10:56
reverse line movement when the betting line goes away from the
10:58
popular side Milwaukee toward the unpopular side Saint Louis.
11:02
So the fact that Saint Louis is only getting 25% bets, yet the
11:05
lines moving further in their direction again tells me smart
11:08
money on the Cardinals here. They would match favored off a
11:11
loss opponent off a win 59% this year, 1% ROI and then also just
11:16
a classic fade. The trendy dog opportunity.
11:18
Trendy dog is Milwaukee, yet line is going to the contrarian
11:21
favorite Saint Louis and a great bet split on Saint Louis.
11:25
Saint Louis is only getting 25% of bets, but nearly 50% of
11:29
dollars. So that's really Rob.
11:31
We're seeing this line move further towards Saint Louis.
11:33
The big money in their favor now favorite low total Coral to
11:37
betting total. This one is 7 1/2 actually open
11:40
at AI think it fell the seven half, which is a good sign line
11:43
moving, you know, toward the favorite simultaneously with the
11:46
total dropping and then talking about that ultimate buy low sell
11:49
high. Milwaukee is 6 and oh, their
11:52
last six and Saint Louis is one and seven their last eight.
11:56
So that tells me that we have an opportunity here to really,
11:59
really buy low on Saint Louis and really sell high on
12:02
Milwaukee. And also our friends at Juice
12:05
Reel had a good sharp mush indicator here on Saint Louis, a
12:09
29% sharp mush discrepancy where the best betters in the app are
12:13
going Saint Louis, but the worst betters in the app are going
12:16
Milwaukee. So you add it all up here guys,
12:18
I'm going Saint Louis again. I know they've struggled.
12:20
Seems obvious. Just take Milwaukee.
12:22
You got to trust the market. If you bet long enough as a
12:25
data-driven better, you learn to trust the market.
12:27
Win, lose or draw. Sharp bet here is Saint Louis.
12:29
So give me the Cardinals. I was able to get the cards at
12:32
-110 Now they're again as high as -115 -, 120.
12:37
Keep on cruising. Couple late night sweats for
12:39
you. Here's the total that just
12:41
screamed to me Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics now going to
12:45
this one had a good win last night with the Tampa Bay Rays.
12:49
Thank you to Siri for cashing our ticket there with a Homer in
12:52
the 8th. But coming into this one, Tampa
12:54
Bay 63 and 62 again winning the opener, winning last night's
12:58
game one nothing You had Oakland actually win the opener 3
13:01
nothing. So you get the get the theme
13:03
here low scoring games. Oakland, by the way, now 54 and
13:07
72. So pitching match up for
13:09
tonight, we have Ryan Pepio. I used to call him Pepiot.
13:12
I think the T is silent. Pepio, six and five, 3.69 ERA.
13:16
He'll be opposed by fellow ready Mitch Spence, who's seven and
13:19
eight with a 4.64 ERA. Now, in terms of the money line,
13:23
it really hasn't moved much off of Tampa Bay -125 -, 130.
13:28
But I've noticed a big change in the total juice price.
13:32
So this game open with a total low total of 7 1/2 and a lot of
13:36
books were basically 7 1/2 -, 110 both sides.
13:40
Now we're 7 1/2 under -115 -, 120.
13:44
So right off the bat tells me we got under liability.
13:47
We're basically painted across the board.
13:49
Every book you're looking at is juiced up toward the under and a
13:52
fantastic bet split to the under.
13:54
This is what really kind of sold me here as well as some other
13:57
information I'm going to give you in a second.
13:58
But only 29% of bets are taking the under 7 1/2 raise and in the
14:04
A's, but 63% of dollars are on the under.
14:08
So that is a huge low bets, higher dollars, sharp contrarian
14:11
bet split. Flip it the other way, 71% of
14:14
bets are going over. If the odds makers are juicing
14:16
up the under again, that that's really telling us something
14:19
because if you look at the over under, you know, you can get 7
14:22
1/2 over even money 7 1/2 / + 1 O 5.
14:26
Why are the odds makers giving you, you know, basically, you
14:29
know, standard juice or not even standard, that's -110 just, you
14:32
know, reduced juice or even plus money juice on the over when
14:35
everyone's betting the over tells me if the smart money here
14:38
has come in on the under. So I love that juiced up under
14:41
as well as that juice flip and liability.
14:44
And now here's where it gets good.
14:46
If you look at Ryan Pepio, guy's been really, really great.
14:49
I hear recently, his last four starts, he has an ERA of 1.29.
14:53
He's only given up three runs and 21 and he's pitched and
14:56
Spence hasn't been great, but he's been better at home, 3.86
15:00
ERA versus 5.63 on the road, and he's been better at night.
15:03
At night he has a 3.45 ERA, 6.81 in the day.
15:08
So he's at home and it's a night game.
15:10
That's where he's been better. Also, you look at both these
15:12
teams, they are two of the worst hitting teams in baseball.
15:15
Hopefully that continues. I don't want to jinx them, but
15:18
they're both hitting actually the same #231 and hitting 231.
15:23
That means they're tied for basically 26th or 27th.
15:26
And baseball and batting average, the unders 2 and O so
15:29
far this series, the unders 4 and one head to head between
15:32
these teams. And then I was doing a little
15:34
research in my database and here a couple things that I found.
15:37
Tampa Bay is actually the 4th best under team in baseball, 64
15:41
and 55 to the under 5054%. Oakland 66 and 57 to the under,
15:47
also 54%. They're actually 7th best and
15:51
here's where it gets even better.
15:52
A little cherry on top in the month of August, Oakland is 10
15:56
and six to the under and the month of August, Tampa Bay is 13
16:00
and four to the under. The Tampa Bay is actually the
16:02
number one under team in the month of August.
16:04
So you add it all up here, guys, we got public taking the over,
16:08
yet the seven and half is juiced up under.
16:10
You have a great bet split. You have a couple good pitchers
16:12
on the bump, two light hitting offenses, 2 under teams,
16:16
especially recently and on the year.
16:18
I got to take a shot on this under again, I think when it
16:20
comes to totals, don't go looking for totals.
16:23
Read the board, look at each game and every now and again one
16:26
just screams at you. This one's screaming at me.
16:28
I'm going Tampa Bay Oakland under 7 1/2.
16:31
I was able to find under 7 1/2 at -115 again, some shops now as
16:36
high as -120 even like I see a -, 122.
16:39
So try to find the best juice, but let's get another low
16:41
scoring game. Tampa, Oakland, under 7 1/2,
16:45
last bite of the night. Let's go to Hollywood, Seattle,
16:49
the Mariners visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers.
16:52
Now going into this one, we have the Dodgers 75 and 52.
16:56
They've taken the first two games of this three-game
16:57
interleague set, winning the opener. 3, nothing as a -, 145
17:01
home favorite. They won again last night, six
17:03
to three as a -, 155 home favorite.
17:06
So for the series finale tonight, the Mariners, who are
17:08
64 and 63, they're going to go with the ready Logan Gilbert.
17:12
He's 7:00 and 9:00 with a 2.96 ERA.
17:15
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are going to go with the fellow
17:17
righty Jack Flaherty. Remember, they picked him up at
17:19
the deadline. He's had a good year, nine and
17:21
five with a three-point O 6 ERA. So what are you seeing across
17:25
the market? Well, pretty standard sharp move
17:27
toward the Dodgers. I'm going Dodgers here, guys.
17:29
Dodgers open this game as low as a -, 150 -, 160 home favorite.
17:35
Now the Dodgers are up to -175 -, 180.
17:38
So a big steam move here hitting the Dodgers causing this
17:41
adjustment in their favor. They're getting around 85% of
17:44
bets in dollars. So it is kind of a public bet,
17:47
but not just the public saying Dodgers are good, take them at
17:50
home sub -200 but also smart money going Dodgers causing that
17:54
line move in their favor. Now system matches here that I
17:57
like with the Dodgers in the league.
17:58
Favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
18:01
Correlative betting favorite low total told this one is like
18:04
eight or seven and a half depending on the shop.
18:06
So kind of a bigger favorite with a lower total.
18:10
Good correlative betting, fewer amount of expected runs scored,
18:13
more likely to come from that better team who's expected to
18:15
win. Also, if you'll get LA
18:18
interleague home favorite who made the playoffs the previous
18:20
year, those teams are 102 and 6163% with a 4% ROI this season.
18:26
Dodgers have a big advantage offensively.
18:29
Dodgers are hitting 252 with 172 homers, 622 runs scored this
18:34
year. Mariners are hitting 216, 142
18:39
homers, 499 runs scored. Also good home Rd. splits in
18:43
favor of the Dodgers. They're 40 and 22 at home.
18:46
One of the best home teams in baseball.
18:48
Seattle is 27 and 37 on the road.
18:50
So it's a little bit higher of a price here, guys.
18:52
But from open to current, it's been all Dodgers steam.
18:55
I'm going to go with the steam move.
18:57
Give me the Dodgers. I was able to get LA at -175 S 5
19:02
pack tonight. Can we get four or sorry, can we
19:04
get three or more? Four would be fantastic, San
19:07
Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis, the Dodgers in the Tampa
19:11
Bay, Oakland under 7 1/2. So that about does it for
19:15
episode one O 2 of the all systems go sports betting pod
19:19
powered by rhythm. But of course it's the part of
19:21
the pod. But I'll leave you with a few
19:22
things #1 if you enjoy this pod, if you look forward to the
19:27
breakdowns each day, win, lose or draw, you like the kind of
19:30
the analysis and the data-driven approach, then can you do one
19:33
thing for me? Can you help me to grow this
19:35
podcast? That's always the goal to reach
19:37
more every everyday casual average Joe Betters, even some
19:41
wise guys who maybe want a different, different take on the
19:44
game. But really the goal here is to
19:46
help Betters win. That's why this pod is free.
19:48
That's why I always try to focus on teaching the data-driven
19:51
model. But if that's the case and you
19:52
want to let me know you appreciate the pod or help me
19:55
grow the pod, can you please do one thing for me?
19:57
Can you log in to the Spotify or iTunes?
20:02
Podcast that's showing the all systems go pod and can you
20:04
please give it a 5 star review? If you have the option there to
20:08
give it five stars, I'd really appreciate it if there's an
20:10
option to follow the pod that way you get alerted as soon as
20:14
it gets posted each day. That would be great as well.
20:16
If you want to recommend it to a friend, I'd much appreciate that
20:19
as as well. But really, a 5 star review
20:21
would go a long way to helping us to grow this pod organically.
20:24
So thank you all. If you want to leave a review,
20:27
if that's an option, you want to say, hey, love the data-driven
20:29
breakdowns, even better, I'd really appreciate that.
20:32
Also. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod
20:34
from the data-driven approach and you're intrigued by the
20:37
style of betting, maybe you really never knew this was an
20:40
approach, an option. I really didn't even know this
20:42
was an option, data-driven contrarian betting until I
20:45
actually got my first job in the industry at Sports Insights on
20:48
the North Shore of Boston back when I was, I think I was 21
20:51
years old. I'm now 37, if you can believe
20:53
it. So this is been a long time
20:55
coming for me honing this model, but I learned early when I got
20:59
my first job in the industry that if you can read the market,
21:02
they can really provide you a big advantage.
21:04
So if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, if
21:06
you want to support the pod and let me know you appreciate the
21:09
hard work that I put in grinding each day, the data-driven model,
21:13
putting out these pods each day for free, then do me a favor, go
21:17
buy my book. All you got to do is go to
21:19
Amazon.com and type in the everything Guide to Sports
21:22
betting. Just pick up a copy for you or
21:24
for a friend or that buddy of yours who parlays everything.
21:28
Or maybe your aunt or uncle, or your nephew, grand grandson,
21:31
granddad, doesn't matter. But if someone you know is
21:34
interested in betting on sports and has no freaking clue how to
21:38
approach it, you know, buy him a copy of my book.
21:40
It would mean a lot to me. Guys, it's got everything I've
21:42
learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
21:44
they move. How to read line movement.
21:45
How to locate sharp action, How to place a bet in person or
21:48
online. How to shop for the best line,
21:50
How to set up a bankroll management plan, chapters on all
21:53
the major sports. It's all there and the
21:55
everything guide to sports betting.
21:56
So pick up a copy, buy one when I see at the book, I'll sign my
21:59
book for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
22:02
and we'll sweat some plays together.
22:04
Lastly, have you taken advantage of Juice Reel and Rhythm?
22:08
Rhythm are my two. Rhythm and Juice Reel are my two
22:11
favorite data-driven apps on the market and they help me win and
22:15
they can help you win. So let's start with Rhythm.
22:17
Rhythm has done a ton over the summer to revamp the website to
22:20
add a new matchups tab. Much more intuitive, completely
22:23
new layout. All the models are ready to go.
22:26
Matching here for week 1 of college football in the NFL.
22:30
Can't wait for the NFL props to get into our daily lives as well
22:34
as WNBA. I'm taking a day off from WNBA.
22:37
I've been a little bit frustrated here recently so I'm
22:39
just going to focus on baseball. But I know my guy Gary Garrison
22:42
and the grinders are going to be betting WNBA today.
22:45
But Rhythm does a great job with their AI backed models and
22:49
predictions for both game bets and props.
22:51
And then also juice reel great job with their sharp mush
22:54
indicators each day where they basically look at everyone who
22:57
has a a juice reel account and basically, you know, compiles,
23:02
Hey, the people with the highest win rate, they're on team A, you
23:06
know, find the games where the worst betters are on team B and
23:08
they let you know like last night was Tampa Bay a good
23:10
winner for us. But whether it's just following
23:13
the robo Jackson AI best bet picks, the sharp mush system
23:16
matches the arbitrage bets. Syncing up your sports books to
23:19
the app Juice Reel is a great advantage and a good good app to
23:24
add to your data-driven toolbox. So if you haven't done it yet,
23:27
juice reel rhythm go sign up for a 7 day free trial by clicking
23:31
the custom links that are located in the bio description
23:34
of this podcast. Lastly, of course, whether I see
23:37
you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode
23:40
Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
23:43
Sundown in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge
23:45
Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my neck of the woods in
23:48
Massachusetts, they're out in the desert where the two
23:51
grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
23:53
number runners where the lowest use possible is found, the South
23:55
Point or jumping in the stadium swimming pool at Circa.
23:59
When you cash a big ticket, wherever it may be, you're going
24:02
to show me, hey, we'll take the Rays winner, Phillies, Gnats,
24:05
Storm Mystics over 161, it lands 160.
24:08
Show me those tickets and we'll rip them up and recycle them.
24:11
Don't throw them in the trash. Be nice to the trees.
24:14
Let's see if we can bounce back here tonight, guys.
24:16
First one's on me, next one's on you.
24:17
We'll post about the book Sweatsharp contrarian plays all
24:20
night long. So my parting words as always,
24:23
stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
24:25
yourself on the side of the house.
24:27
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
24:29
Will smart money when every time, of course not again,
24:33
perfect example, Philly would beat the closing line.
24:35
They didn't show up for us. That's going to happen every now
24:37
and again, unfortunately. But if we can stay true to the
24:39
model that with our head and not our heart, against the public,
24:42
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get
24:46
that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
24:48
to be successful sports betters long term.
24:50
So enjoy the sweats. Everyone have a great Wednesday.
24:54
I got a big beer league softball game here tonight in Cambridge,
24:57
so I'm looking forward to that. But I won't be checking my my
25:00
scores until I get home. So I'll be a little antsy.
25:03
Hopefully. Hopefully the teams you bet on
25:04
will be winning or up by the time I look at the numbers.
25:08
But have a great Wednesday. Everyone back at it for a big
25:11
Thursday tomorrow. There are two NFL pre season
25:14
games tomorrow. Let's see, we do have one WNBA
25:17
game. That means we're one day closer
25:19
to biting, including one fighter or biter that I'm looking at
25:23
right now. But I want that confirmation for
25:25
my buddy John Ewing. But either way, guys, it's
25:28
starting to become the busy part of the of the sports betting
25:31
calendar and I'm very much excited for a big fall with you
25:34
guys this year. But of course, stay sharp, stay
25:37
contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
25:39
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
25:41
never against it, and we can do that against the public with the
25:43
house, with the pros, flat bet and avoid parlays and get that
25:47
CLV. We're going to be successful
25:48
sports bettors long term. So have a fantastic Wednesday
25:51
night, everyone. Good luck.
25:53
I'll see you tomorrow for episode one O 3 of the All
25:56
systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
25:59
Good luck everybody, have a great night.