Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4004 Polling NIGHTMARE as Democrats PANIC over MIDTERMS!!!

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Ep. 4004 Polling NIGHTMARE as Democrats PANIC over MIDTERMS!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
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  [SPEAKER_02]: On Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: A bombshell poll just dropped that sending shockwaves through every Democrat campaign office
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: in America, and it's only gonna get worse.
• 0:31
  [SPEAKER_02]: For months, months, the legacy media has been telling you the same story.
• 0:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: Democrats are surging.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_02]: A blue wave is coming.
• 0:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: Trump's numbers are cradering Republicans are finished heading into November.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: CNN, MSNBC, New York Times, they've all been saying it over and over and over again, just like they did back in 2024.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_02]: but something just happened, something big.
• 0:55
  [SPEAKER_02]: And even the legacy media is being forced to admit it.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're openly sounding the alarm.
• 1:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: And when you look at these numbers, you understand exactly why the entire Democrat party is in a full blown panic.
• 1:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: Hey gang, it's me, Doc, to Steve Yorp, a major professor enjoying it another wonderful day in the glorious golden age that you made possible back in November of 2024.
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• 1:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's dive right in here.
• 1:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: The Economist Yuga poll just released their latest numbers.
• 1:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: for the congressional generic ballot, and the results are frankly a political disaster for the Democrats.
• 2:03
  [SPEAKER_02]: So just to put in context back in February of this year, the economist you have had Democrats up by seven points on the generic ballot.
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: Seven.
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: The blue wave was coming, they said, by May, that lead had shrunk to five points.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: In the latest poll conducted June 13th through the 15th of 1400 registered voters, Democrats are up by only two points.
• 2:35
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's Democrats 46 to Republicans 44 that's a five point swing toward Republicans in just four months, five points, and it's not just the economists you got.
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's happening across the board so much so.
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: that even CNN is being forced to sound the alarm.
• 2:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: And Harry, we're talking about this as time goes on.
• 2:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: You and I have kept on looking at these numbers and get just doesn't look like the numbers.
• 3:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: We've seen when there have been waves for our Democrats in the past.
• 3:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: What are the trends in the other folks?
• 3:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so this is not just one poll in which we are seeing this.
• 3:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: There is this group of pollsters that are out there that are just not showing the wave.
• 3:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: You might expect given where the president's approval rating is.
• 3:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, what are we talking about?
• 3:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're talking about NBC, Market University Law School in it.
• 3:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, look at where they were January and February and look at where they are, May and June.
• 3:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: MBC down a point, MU law down three points.
• 3:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: If so, basically staying the same.
• 3:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the Democrats hold these leads, but again, you have this group of pollsters that are out there with this lead simply put is not matching what you might expect if you're expecting a Democratic wave.
• 3:40
  [SPEAKER_02]: Translation, there is no blue wave.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's simply not the CNN is admitting it.
• 3:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's not, now when you look at the polling aggregate, not when you look at you gov and bc market pixels, it's not the, in fact, it's the opposite across the entire polling universe, the trend is identical.
• 4:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: The Democrats lead is collapsing and it's collapsing fast.
• 4:06
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now it actually gets worse.
• 4:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: These numbers are just the tip of the iceberg.
• 4:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: If you've been with this channel now over the years through a couple of election cycles, by the way, if not, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: But if you've been with me, say, in the last election cycle, or the last couple of election cycles,
• 4:25
  [SPEAKER_02]: You recall that there's something called a summer response bias for Democrats.
• 4:30
  [SPEAKER_02]: Do you remember that?
• 4:31
  [SPEAKER_02]: We talked about this while I guess, so at this time, two years ago, right?
• 4:35
  [SPEAKER_02]: In 2024, when Trump's poll numbers started taking a dip, it was very noticeable in July and August.
• 4:41
  [SPEAKER_02]: And I was telling you, don't worry, that's a classic response bias, bottom line historically
• 4:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: And every legacy outlet knows this by the way, they just don't tell you.
• 4:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: And by the way, frankly, I think this is why they're freaking out right now.
• 4:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: But historically, Republican polling drops during the summer and Democrat polling gets a bump.
• 5:03
  [SPEAKER_02]: And that's because basically Republicans have lives.
• 5:07
  [SPEAKER_02]: They have families.
• 5:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: They go on vacation.
• 5:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: They drop out of politics during the summer months.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're psychologically healthier.
• 5:15
  [SPEAKER_02]: Whereas Democrats are these, I'm sorry.
• 5:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: did a may a culpa with that, but Democrats and these cat ladies living alone in their apartments counting down the seconds to when they get to go to the next no kings protest.
• 5:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: So Democrats tend to get a bump in the summer months and Republicans tend to dip.
• 5:34
  [SPEAKER_02]: For example, we saw that most explicitly around the time back in 2022 in June.
• 5:41
  [SPEAKER_02]: of 2022 when the Dom's decision came out and the Supreme Court overturned Rovey wed, Democrats got a massive bump that lasted right through the summer.
• 5:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: But now, now, same time, June, I mean, you saw the pulse.
• 5:58
  [SPEAKER_02]: Where's the bump?
• 6:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're up to three low single digits.
• 6:06
  [SPEAKER_02]: There is no summer bump.
• 6:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's simply not there.
• 6:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: And you just historically speaking in terms of the past being precedent, you've got to understand how catastrophic that is.
• 6:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: Because again, historically Democrat numbers are always higher in the summer than they are ultimately on election day in November.
• 6:29
  [SPEAKER_02]: So if they're only up by two or three in June, what does that say for November?
• 6:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: On a massive surge, a double digit lead in the summer that would give them the breathing room they needed for the margin to shrink but still dominate in November.
• 6:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: But they're not getting it.
• 6:52
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're not getting the bump.
• 6:55
  [SPEAKER_02]: And that is a massive, massive warning sign for the Democrats.
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: So what's driving this Republican recovery?
• 7:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well, bottom line gas prices, they are still too high for sure, but they are actually lower than they were in 2022 in the last midterms.
• 7:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: And this UGA poll was conducted during the time, Trump announced the P steel with Iran that permanently opens the straight-a-horse moves.
• 7:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: And gang, in the end, that's the ultimate standard that voters are going to judge this whole operation by with Iran.
• 7:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, by Neil Kontalking points, now by Dumer podcaster tantrums, bottom line did that operation contribute to my bottom line.
• 7:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: Did it make my gas prices lower?
• 7:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: Did it make energy cheaper?
• 7:47
  [SPEAKER_02]: Did it make the cost of living cheaper?
• 7:49
  [SPEAKER_02]: If yes, thumbs up.
• 7:52
  [SPEAKER_02]: No screen from Carl Roe over Tucker Carlson is going to change that.
• 7:58
  [SPEAKER_02]: And it looks as if that cautious optimism is already breaking through among voters.
• 8:04
  [SPEAKER_02]: And the public is just seeing gas prices going down.
• 8:07
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're seeing a foreign policy win.
• 8:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're seeing the economy surging.
• 8:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're seeing the big America 250 celebrations, the World Cup excitement.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're like, this is cool.
• 8:17
  [SPEAKER_02]: I like this.
• 8:17
  [SPEAKER_02]: Let's keep this going.
• 8:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: But like I said, this polling is just the tip of the iceberg.
• 8:23
  [SPEAKER_02]: There's more.
• 8:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: And the news gets even worse for the Democrats.
• 8:29
  [SPEAKER_02]: The first right now, and estimated 31 million Americans are taking GOP one medications like OZEMPIC and WE GOV.
• 8:37
  [SPEAKER_02]: But as more people start using them, more concerns are starting to surface as well.
• 8:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: In just the past few months alone,
• 8:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: lawsuits tied to these drugs hadn't nearly doubled in the United States, jumping from around 2,000 cases at the beginning of the year to nearly 4,000 today.
• 8:55
  [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, look at these celebrities who succumbed at what's called ozempic face.
• 9:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: And it doesn't look like the picture health domain.
• 9:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, 70 side effects could be much more serious, including stomach paralysis, organ death, anxiety, depression, and sudden vision loss.
• 9:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: Some people are even reportedly dying.
• 9:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: For many people, weight gain may have less to do with willpower and more to do with what's happening in your gut.
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: Researchers are learning more every year about how much the gut microbiome impacts things like cravings, bloating, inflammation, digestion, mood, energy levels, and long-term weight management.
• 9:35
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• 9:43
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• 10:05
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• 10:12
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• 10:49
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• 10:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now the real nightmare here for the Democrats is how they're poultry lead in the generic ballot compares.
• 11:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: to the daunting, newly redistricted congressional maps.
• 11:06
  [SPEAKER_02]: So what you're seeing here are the three major congressional projection models.
• 11:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: And you'll notice all of them, all three have the Republicans beating the Democrats going into November.
• 11:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: So you got crystal ball with publicans have 213 safe or leaning seats, Democrats at 206 was 16 toss-ups.
• 11:27
  [SPEAKER_02]: Inside elections has a Republicans at the safe 217 remember they only need 218 to keep their majority.
• 11:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: They've got a safe 217 with Democrats at 204 of 14 toss-ups and cook.
• 11:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: has a republicans to 12 democrats to a five with 18 toss-ups.
• 11:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: So what you have to get here is that if we were looking at this map back in 2018, the last time democrats took control of the house, that map would be inverted.
• 11:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: The democrats were up with a safe 210 seats.
• 11:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: The Republicans are down with a safe 195 seats with 30 toss-ups.
• 12:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: And the democrats did not sweep those toss-ups.
• 12:04
  [SPEAKER_02]: The
• 12:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: Again, what the Democrats would need here, if there are any hope a significant gains, is they would need to have a super-duper double-digit lead in the generic ballot to guarantee that the win the vast majority of the tossups possibly even flip some of the lean red seats.
• 12:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: Which even if they did, again, according to inside elections forecast, Republicans just need one toss-up seat to retain their majority at 2.8.
• 12:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: The Democrats are simply in a bad position.
• 12:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: In the end, Democrats need to gain seats.
• 12:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: Republicans just need to not lose them.
• 12:47
  [SPEAKER_02]: That's the calculus right now, and it's clearly favoring the Republicans as we speak.
• 12:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: Here's yet another indicator out things are going.
• 12:56
  [SPEAKER_02]: vote a registration again if you've been with this channel now for some months.
• 12:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: You know we've been following this very closely as has the great historian Larry Schweiker in the 30 states that track voter registration by party affiliation.
• 13:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: Republicans are dominating in all 30 and I mean dominating not just for months we're talking now for years.
• 13:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: NBC news is reported the Republicans have reduced
• 13:23
  [SPEAKER_02]: the long-standing Democrat registration advantage by over one million voters, just since the 2024 elections alone, one million.
• 13:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: And it's happening across the board.
• 13:34
  [SPEAKER_02]: Look at what the National Republican congressional committee found when they analyzed 28 of the most competitive house districts in the country.
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_02]: Look at this.
• 13:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: So after the 2020 election, Democrats had a 733,000 voter registration edge over Republicans in those districts in those toss up districts fast forward to today.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: They have lost all 733,000 of those voters.
• 14:05
  [SPEAKER_02]: Republicans now actually have a small advantage.
• 14:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: That's an almost
• 14:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: 800,000 voter swing in the most competitive districts in America towards the GOP.
• 14:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: That is what voter registration outreach efforts get you.
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_02]: Thank you very much Scott Prussler.
• 14:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: And keep in mind, voter registration is one of the most accurate predictive indicators for how people actually vote.
• 14:30
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're not as volatile as poll numbers that can swing five points in a month.
• 14:35
  [SPEAKER_02]: These are real human beings.
• 14:37
  [SPEAKER_02]: who walked into a government office or went online and they officially declared their allegiance to in this case, the Republican party, and that's the most accurate predictor for how they're going to vote.
• 14:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: And as if things couldn't possibly get worse for the Democrats, low and behold, the Republicans are swimming in cash while the Democrats are wallowing in debt.
• 15:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: The Republican National Committee entered his spring with $109 million
• 15:07
  [SPEAKER_02]: While the DNC had just 15 million, but they were already 17 million in outstanding debt.
• 15:13
  [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, seriously, you couldn't script this better.
• 15:17
  [SPEAKER_02]: But that's just the party committees.
• 15:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: When you add in the full Republican ecosystem, the RNC, the NRCC, the NRSC, Allied Super PACs, like the Congressional Leadership Fund, and most importantly, Trump's MAGA Inc.
• 15:35
  [SPEAKER_02]: Republicans have upwards of $1 billion available to defend seats, expand the map, and go on offense.
• 15:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: Republicans can defend every single vulnerable income and flood marginal seats with cash to flip them.
• 15:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: Democrats have to make agonizing choices about which racist to fun and which ones to abandon.
• 15:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: That is not a position you wanna be going in,
• 16:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: would want to be in going into the most consequential midterms in a generation.
• 16:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: So let's bring this all together.
• 16:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: The economists you have has Democrats lead down to just two points, five point claps in four months with NBC, Marquette, Nipsos all showing the same trend.
• 16:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: The summer bump, the Democrats always count on, is simply not materializing.
• 16:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: CNN's own Ariandon compared this to 2018-2006 found it doesn't come close.
• 16:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: The House redistricting already gives Republicans a clear pat to holding the majority.
• 16:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: The voter registration numbers in the 30 states that track party affiliations show Republicans flipping nearly a million voters in the most competitive districts in America and the Republican war chess is filled with a billion dollars ready to deploy while Democrats are literally wallowing in debt.
• 16:56
  [SPEAKER_02]: The legacy media will still keep desperately trying to tell you that the blue wave is coming.
• 17:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: But the data, the real data, not the narrative, says something very different.
• 17:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: And it says the Democrats have every reason to panic.
• 17:13
  [SPEAKER_02]: So what do you guys think?
• 17:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: Let me know in the comments down below.
• 17:16
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• 17:21
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• 17:23
  [SPEAKER_02]: Love you guys, God bless.
• 17:24
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• 17:31
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