Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW REPORT SUGGESTS THE BITCOIN SUPPLY SHOCK IS ACCELERATING?! | EP 1332

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NEW REPORT SUGGESTS THE BITCOIN SUPPLY SHOCK IS ACCELERATING?! | EP 1332 · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
A new report just revealed that a Bitcoin supply shock may be
0:04
brewing. Blackrock's Bitcoin buying spree
0:07
is accelerating as the ETS now hold over 1.1 million coins.
0:12
But this is. Happening at the same time that
0:15
we're seeing some of the biggest Bitcoin treasury companies
0:18
collapsing, it is. Brutal out there.
0:21
So what comes next and what does this mean for Bitcoin?
0:24
Is paper Bitcoin summer officially over?
0:28
Anyways, before we get into all of that, let's jump straight
0:30
into this Bitwise report. Of course, I got Sophie with me
0:34
today. Niko will be back tomorrow.
0:35
He literally just landed on the plane, so we'll get back to the
0:38
normal show tomorrow. Anyways, Bitwise dropped this
0:42
report yesterday and it's saying some interesting things.
0:45
First of all, remember last week, I believe it was Thursday
0:48
when I was mentioning the story about sharks?
0:51
It looks like smaller Bitcoin holders are coming back into the
0:55
market. The 100 to 1000 K range Bitcoin
0:58
buyers bought in bulk last week over around 65,000 coins, not
1:04
completely offsetting the hundreds of thousands of coins
1:07
that the whales have been sending to exchanges.
1:10
So there is still some amount of obviously coins that was not
1:16
being totally bought up by smaller investors.
1:19
But this Bitwise report is showing us something very
1:21
interesting and is that the institutions are starting to re
1:25
enter the market. And I think the timing
1:27
considering we're on the verge of seeing some rate cuts on
1:30
Wednesday, I think it is very interesting to show essentially,
1:35
as we've been showing you guys telling you guys, if they do cut
1:38
interest rates, it's basically a sign for people to look for
1:42
profits elsewhere. And usually that means that
1:45
assets and quote UN quote riskier investment start to take
1:49
lead. And we're seeing the data from
1:51
Bitwise showing us exactly this. So the headline is crypto asset
1:56
surged past equities as Fed rate cuts bet grow, Bitcoin ET EF
2:00
flow signal renewed bullish momentum.
2:03
So going into this a little bit, crypto asset outperformed global
2:06
equities again and rising risk appetite and increasingly
2:09
probability for Fed rate cuts this week.
2:12
This is probably why we're seeing this happen.
2:15
Our in highs crypto asset sentiment index has rebounded to
2:18
a new one month high, signaling a return to slightly bullish
2:22
sentiment. The chart of the week is the
2:25
risky. The rising risk appetite can
2:27
also be seen in the reversal in global Bitcoin ETP flows.
2:31
This is where it gets pretty interesting.
2:33
More specifically, flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed
2:36
new supply growth across different time frames again,
2:39
which has supported the latest recovery.
2:42
So check out this chart. Here's the bulk of what is going
2:46
on right now. Yes, we've been seeing some
2:48
outflows in the ETF markets the last month, but it seems like
2:52
they are reversing on that kind of position.
2:55
They are buying a lot of Bitcoin.
2:58
Well, through the ETF, they're buying a lot of Bitcoin.
3:00
Now depending on what side of the aisle you stand, you may be
3:04
thinking this is just paper Bitcoin.
3:06
But if you're more of the checkmate on chain Bitcoin
3:09
analytics perspective, you, you're kind of watching it and
3:13
saying, oh, they're actually buying and there's Bitcoin.
3:14
So you can see here that the last five days, let's actually
3:19
let's start with the last one day because, you know, then you
3:22
start to see how big this increase is going.
3:25
Of course, usually throughout a day, there's about 450 Bitcoin
3:30
that are released via, you know, bitcoins algorithm and right
3:33
here they have 478. So this is a day and some
3:36
change. The ETFs have bought 5000.
3:39
What is this 510 Bitcoin? That's like a 10X of the total
3:45
supply that is released today. These institutions are picking
3:49
up now. The last five days, about 2294
3:53
coins were released and they bought 20,507 coins.
3:58
The math is starting to get crazy.
4:00
They're coming in bulk and I think everyone is pricing in a
4:03
rate cut. Everyone is starting to, as I
4:05
was telling you last week, deploy their capital.
4:08
They're starting to get the market signals.
4:09
They're starting to realize, OK, if they are cutting rates,
4:13
probably don't want to be in the treasuries.
4:14
Let's go in a little riskier bet.
4:16
At least for us, Bitcoin isn't risky.
4:18
But for most people out there, Bitcoin is still risky.
4:21
And then the last 30 days, the last month, Bitcoin has released
4:24
about 14,000 and 56 coins and they bought a a total of 22,853
4:31
coins. So the institutions are stepping
4:34
back in. I think this is the price
4:36
signal. This is probably why we saw the
4:38
price recover over the weekend is because they're buying in
4:42
bulk. So we've been saying for a
4:44
while, few things to watch as we all look for a market reversal
4:49
and we all start to enter into Q4 and potentially rate cuts.
4:53
Happening this week is a few indicators.
4:56
One, of course, the volume coming in from retail that's
4:59
been non existent. The second is the medium sized
5:03
accumulator or as people like to call them sharks.
5:06
And then the whales. Now the whales have changed.
5:09
Now they're not just OG Bitcoin holders that are holding 10 to
5:13
100,000 coins. The new whale is on in in the
5:17
waters now. And of course that is the
5:19
institutions. And so they're stepping back in.
5:22
And as I said last week, once we see the institution step back
5:25
in, the whale start to accumulate again, that's I think
5:29
when we can get some clear signals that is going to get
5:32
extremely bullish out here. And this happened a lot quicker
5:35
than I thought I was saying last week.
5:37
I'm sure we'll see it in a week or so.
5:39
I, I tweeted on Friday, like what I say, like pump incoming
5:43
or something blast off next week.
5:45
And I know you guys have been calling me a bear because I I've
5:48
been watching these rate cuts and I, and I've been taking a
5:51
little more of a counter counter view on this.
5:53
And I will talk about this a little later in the culture
5:56
because Kobe Ossie letter dropped some good data in
5:59
regards to what happened directly after the rate cuts and
6:02
then what happens a year out. So we'll talk about that later,
6:05
but we're seeing the institutions now are coming in
6:09
the market strong. They want Bitcoin.
6:11
And so if you're sitting on the sidelines right now, I don't
6:16
know what you're doing because I've been saying I'm starting to
6:19
feel the vibe. It seems like they are, you
6:22
know, the the oracles are tingling here and it feels like
6:26
we are starting to get some lift off.
6:29
So actually here we go. Look, this is the ETFs and
6:33
exchanges, you know, kind of dropping off the exchanges here.
6:37
They have, you know, more than 1,000,000 coins now, and they're
6:41
not the only ones accumulating. I don't know if you guys saw,
6:44
but we also saw that strategy now holds 3% of the total
6:48
Bitcoin supply. So even though there's been
6:51
articles about bit Paper Bitcoin Summer being over, specifically
6:55
this one from Bitcoin Magazine, the end of Paper Bitcoin Summer,
7:00
I don't know if you guys have been looking at.
7:02
The the, you know, stock tickers.
7:04
For NACA, Metaplanet, even strategy itself, they're not
7:09
doing so hot right now. I think strategy.
7:11
Looks the, Looks the. The best right now in, in terms
7:15
of price and I I think sailor out of any of them are going to
7:20
be able to weather the storm. But a lot of these Bitcoin
7:23
treasury companies are about, you know, 40 to 80% down from
7:27
all time high. They are getting absolutely
7:29
naked right now. So in hindsight, I'm feeling
7:32
pretty good that I've been just staying in Bitcoin.
7:34
But what does this all mean in in like, you know, together?
7:38
If you Add all of this information together, it's
7:41
starting to paint a very interesting picture.
7:43
One if quote UN quote paper Bitcoin summer is over.
7:47
If the sharks and the whales are coming back into the market to
7:50
accumulate, if we're going to get rate cuts and it looks like
7:53
investors are looking for a new investment because, hey, the
7:57
safe haven assets are no longer the place you want to park your
8:00
money and they got to look for an alternative.
8:02
It is starting to set. Up, I believe.
8:04
A bullish scenario for Q4, it's looking like Q4 is going to be
8:10
extremely great for us here in Bitcoin, especially considering
8:14
everything going on. So if there's no more paper
8:16
Bitcoin and people have to actually buy Bitcoin and the
8:19
appetite for the Bitcoin treasury plays are kind of going
8:23
out the window. If you guys remember during the
8:25
summer we were all wondering what's going on with the Bitcoin
8:28
price and it look like the interest in Bitcoin was headed
8:32
towards ETF and the Bitcoin treasury plays not many people
8:36
wanted to buy. Just.
8:37
Spot Bitcoin well, it looks like that that interest in that
8:41
appetite isn't there anymore and everyone's coming back to just
8:45
accumulate pure Bitcoin. So going further ending this up
8:50
actually we have one more little story let me let me show you
8:52
this guys so I'm sure you guys remember Vivek Ramaswamy's
8:55
company Strive, which is it's a fund a company that invest in
9:00
Bitcoin treasuries that was their whole play We are going to
9:04
invest in Bitcoin treasury companies it's pretty much a
9:06
fund of Bitcoin treasury companies.
9:08
Well, they just completed their merger and they accumulated, as
9:12
we've been talking about, they finished the $750 million Fiat
9:17
accumulation strategy. And I am pretty sure we know
9:20
where that money's going. It's either going to go straight
9:22
into Bitcoin or it's going to go into Bitcoin treasury companies
9:26
so that they can buy. Bitcoin.
9:27
So all of this. Together is starting to paint a
9:30
picture that the price is seemingly about to run
9:34
considering the institutions are back, the small, we would say
9:38
maybe high net worth individuals are accumulating Bitcoin.
9:42
I'm sure you guys are all out there stacking whatever you can
9:45
and the interest is no longer going into Bitcoin treasury
9:49
plays, at least not for the moment.
9:51
They they seem to be pivoting for long term profits versus the
9:54
short term profit gain we've seen.
9:57
So I'm, I'm starting to get absolutely bullish for what's
10:00
going to come maybe next week, maybe it starts this week, who
10:04
knows. So you're starting to see that
10:06
gold and Bitcoin are pricing in these rate cuts.
10:09
This is probably why we're seeing the Bitcoin price go up.
10:13
Not necessarily just that there's some phantom, you know,
10:16
pricing in of the rate cuts. It's essentially showing us that
10:20
the interest, these individuals are looking for an alternative
10:23
and they're like, OK, well, if no one wants to buy treasuries,
10:27
everyone's buying gold and the memetics of Bitcoin is going to
10:31
go up harder than gold. A lot of people are looking at
10:33
Bitcoin as a safe place. Even though it's been a risky
10:37
bet and it's looking like these rate cuts are inevitable.
10:42
It looks like it's going to happen and I will break down
10:45
what what I think might happen. I think long term it's going to
10:48
be extremely bullish. Obviously more loose money, more
10:51
easy money in the system means more liquidity.
10:54
Liquidity drives Bitcoin price. So long, long term, this is
10:57
going to be extremely bullish for price of Bitcoin and assets.
11:02
But it's looking like people are waking up.
11:05
It's looking like people are dropping treasuries, They're
11:08
dropping, or rather they're going into gold.
11:11
They don't want to be buying, you know, government debt right
11:14
now because it's not giving them the returns they want anymore.
11:17
So just looking over this for a little bit.
11:19
Bitcoin bulls have a clear resistant level to overcome at
11:21
1:17. We'll see if we can break 117 as
11:25
the week goes by. And then, of course, all eyes
11:28
are on the Fed as markets unanimously expect the first
11:30
interest rate cut of 2025 to come on Wednesday.
11:34
A historically accurate Bitcoin price forecasting tool demands
11:38
fresh all time highs for Bitcoin within weeks.
11:40
Again, this is what I've been saying.
11:42
Yes, I know you guys have been calling me a bear, but I think
11:46
if we don't, if the the rate cuts aren't a buy the rumor,
11:50
sell the new scenario within weeks, within a month, I think
11:53
the price is going to RIP. I'm still a little on the fence
11:57
of what's going to happen the day it actually gets announced.
12:01
And then, you know, the the the order books are hinting that
12:04
large buyers are active over the weekend.
12:06
Again, it looks like the large buyers are coming back into the
12:09
market, which is obviously a good sign for us because as the
12:13
tide goes up, it lifts all ships.
12:15
So us minnows out there, we should be set up pretty good for
12:19
AQ4. And then again, institutional
12:21
demand was nine times the mine Bitcoin supply last week, with
12:24
the trend seen pushing price. Higher SO guys.
12:28
Things are setting up pretty good here in Bitcoin land.
12:31
I know we've all been tried and tested and we're all wondering
12:35
what's going on. Is Bitcoin being suppressed?
12:38
Is, you know, the bull run? Not even here is the bull run
12:41
over. I'm starting to get bullish.
12:44
I think, as I've been saying for a while, the end of the year is
12:47
going to be great. We'll.
12:48
See what happens during this week that could be a little more
12:51
short term volatility, but long term, this is setting up a
12:54
bullish scenario for all global liquidity or even just more
12:59
liquidity in the US coming to Bitcoin.
13:01
So I'm starting to feel extremely bullish guys.
13:04
And you know, the anti opti, what's it interval, no indicator
13:09
we might be dumping, but the price is doing pretty good.
13:12
It's looking kind of healthy right now.
13:13
So hey, the reason I've been bringing a lot of this stuff.
13:18
Up to you. Guys is again, Bitcoin now has a
13:21
place in the macro markets. And so people that are
13:23
traditionally just macro focused are looking at Bitcoin as a new
13:27
player in the space. And This is why it's all
13:30
becoming interleaked. And This is why we, I think now
13:33
have to kind of at the very least know what they're doing so
13:37
we we can have or rather temper our expectations on the Bitcoin
13:40
price. We no longer are just cast into
13:43
the shadows and Bitcoin does its own thing and it's only
13:46
Bitcoiners in the market that drive the price.
13:48
We have new players here. And I think This is why it's
13:51
going to be a very interesting week for Bitcoin.
13:53
So anyway, Sophie, what's your thoughts on Uncle Larry out here
13:57
stacking all the coin? I mean, it's pretty predictable.
14:00
We've known that these potential rate cuts are gonna happen this
14:05
week for a really long time. A large majority of economists,
14:10
according to a Reuters poll, have said that they expect a 25
14:15
basis points cut. So, you know, I think they're
14:18
keeping expectations pretty tempered, to be honest with you.
14:22
In my heart of hearts, I feel like it might be a little bit
14:25
more. In the worst case scenario, we
14:27
don't get a rate cut at all. But then if that happens, if
14:31
that happens, I mean, Powell, Powell's going to get booted.
14:36
I mean, I, that's just my opinion.
14:37
I think that there is no scenario where there won't be a
14:41
rate cut and we don't get a new chair of the Fed.
14:44
So, you know, the odds kind of are in our favor.
14:48
I think that the market is obviously showing that by, you
14:52
know, stacking all of these ETFs.
14:54
Remember that the majority of the players in the market are
14:58
boomers and they like to stick to what they know.
15:00
They're going to go on their Charles Schwab account and
15:03
they're going to want to buy the ETFs because that is what they
15:06
know. But those hedge fund companies,
15:10
those instruments are going to have to be backed up by real
15:14
Bitcoin at some point and at some point soon.
15:18
So because people are going to want to see the gains and they
15:21
expect it for Q4. So, you know, I love that
15:25
Bitcoin Magazine talked about the end of paper Bitcoin summer,
15:30
and for me, that just means that real Bitcoin autumn is on the
15:35
horizon. You know, get yourself a pumpkin
15:37
spice Bitcoin, if you will. I love that the the this this
15:42
next lift off is looking very orange.
15:45
It's it's with the times. It's very telling of the
15:49
seasons. You know, they say you, you
15:51
didn't, that, that Bitcoin was discovered and I, you know, this
15:55
is like the nature of how it goes with, with, you know, the
15:59
aesthetic and everything. That's just my girly
16:01
perspective. But on a serious note, I do
16:04
think that, you know, the, it's inevitable that we are going to
16:08
get a pump. We just, we, we don't know how
16:11
much and we don't know when and we have to be very, very
16:16
patient. Yeah, I'm a sorry guys, there's
16:21
a there's a good comment Kudis pump and spice lambos for
16:24
everyone for Christmas. We.
16:28
Love that. Yeah, no, guys like I know it's
16:31
been a. Slow 2025, it's been extremely
16:36
huge Bitcoin news surrounding our industry, probably the most
16:40
bullish news cycle we've seen in forever and the price has been
16:44
pretty stagnant and kind of diving into all of the data out
16:50
there, it is looking like it wasn't so much paper Bitcoin
16:54
summer. It's just a lot of people's
16:55
number was 100K and they're moving a lot of coin to the
16:57
exchanges. And now if the hype is leaving
17:00
the Bitcoin treasury plays and going straight into Bitcoin
17:03
right as Q 4 happens and these rate cuts happen.
17:08
I don't know, guys, I, you know, I, I, I don't want to do the
17:12
price predictions today because your, your boy is super cooked
17:15
and I can't think right now. But I think it's all all leading
17:22
towards a very, very bullish end of the year.
17:27
And as we've been seeing, there is a lot of economic uncertainty
17:30
going on in the world and there's a lot of people
17:33
transitioning from Tradfi thinking into a new modern
17:36
thinking. People have to modernize your
17:38
thinking right now because things are changing.
17:41
We're seeing things rapidly change.
17:43
And I think this is starting to permeate through people's
17:46
thinking that, right, we have to try something differently.
17:50
And of course, that different move is saving in Bitcoin.
17:54
So it's, it's happening. 2025 is the year that it's happening.
17:58
Now it's going to just be very interesting to see how Bitcoin
18:01
reacts to this in the next couple of weeks, or rather this
18:04
week. This week will be a very
18:06
important week to kind of recognize where Bitcoin is in
18:11
the whole macro landscape. If Bitcoin does react, if the
18:15
markets react bad and Bitcoin pukes on us, you know, then we
18:20
know, hey, we're still highly correlated.
18:22
If Bitcoin starts ripping just as gold was and it breaks away,
18:26
it's going to be very bullish. I think all scenarios are
18:29
bullish towards Bitcoin because we know what's coming down the
18:32
pipeline. They're easing the money
18:33
controls that there's going to be more liquidity in the system,
18:37
and that all just means Bitcoin is going to RIP, guys.
18:41
So, you know, buckle up. Now is not the time to be
18:44
selling your stack. Now is not the time to be
18:46
trading. You should not.
18:47
Be trading right now in such uncertain times.
18:50
Well, I think that shouldn't be trading that uncertainty and the
18:53
fact that people are buying gold at the levels that they are,
18:57
it's at an all time high is kind of indicative that Bitcoin is
19:03
about to follow next. So I think I think we just have
19:06
to be patient. I mean, all the cards are set,
19:10
all the obstacles have been moved out of the way for the
19:13
most part. Of course, we still have people
19:16
trying to fight Bitcoin like we covered on Friday, but at the
19:22
same time, the people with the money, the market is definitely
19:26
dictating that they are ready for Bitcoin Autumn.
19:33
Look who we have. Look who decided to show up.
19:40
Oh, just I thought you were going to say something.
19:42
I thought you were going to say something.
19:44
I thought you were going to, like, hype us up for, you know,
19:47
the coming week. I'm back two months of
19:53
tumultuous. Journey.
19:56
And it's good to be home, good to be home.
19:59
So yeah. Yeah, you sound dead.
20:03
You sound as dead as I feel right now.
20:05
Anyways, red eyes are not fun. All right, guys, All right, OK,
20:12
anyways, guys, right now is the time of the show where I want to
20:15
remind you guys to of course smash the like button comment on
20:18
the show. Let us know what you think and
20:20
of course, hit the subscriber button because because we're
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dropping the best content, the most content and put on your
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notifications. And then of course, got to give
20:33
a plug to our boys over at the Bitcoin.
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So on that note guys, let's get into the rest of the show.
21:24
We got some interesting news coming from my ex-girlfriend in
21:28
the ECB. She is tripling down on her CBDC
21:33
push. And then we got some even more
21:36
interesting news coming out of Thailand.
21:38
It seems like they are freezing people's accounts.
21:42
It seems like people are waking up and they're freezing
21:44
accounts. So 4th turning is in full effect
21:46
now, guys, if you still have money in the system and you
21:50
don't want to wake up one day and your money's gone, now is
21:53
the time to be buying some Bitcoin.
21:55
Or rather the best time to buy Bitcoin was yesterday.
21:57
And if it's not bought in from yesterday, you need to be buying
22:00
it now. Things are starting to heat up.
22:03
It is getting crazy out there. So we got a good show for you
22:06
guys. I'll be right back.
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And I'm sorry, guys. Yeah, my back super cooked
23:31
today. Not OK.
23:32
Right now I tweaked it in the. Thoughts and prayers, love and
23:36
healing and smash the like button.
23:38
Yeah, I'm low key dying on today's show, but the show goes
23:41
on anyways. OK, you're a professional.
23:44
Yeah, you're totally a professional.
23:45
Absolutely. Professional.
23:46
OK, I'm over here on Clark Moody's dashboard.
23:49
The current Bitcoin price is 114,700.
23:53
We're at a negative 7.8 decline from all time high.
23:57
The market cap is at 2.29 trillion.
24:00
The block high TikTok next block currently at 914,827.
24:07
OK guys, so we honestly, when I saw this, I thought this was
24:12
old. I was like, all right, we've
24:14
heard this. OK, You know she's already what?
24:17
Already told us the CBDC is coming.
24:20
She doubled down on the CBDC, told us it's coming in October,
24:24
we're two weeks away, and now she is tripling down on a CBDC,
24:29
basically saying, hey, we got to get this pushed through.
24:32
I wonder why? I wonder why they want to push
24:35
it through so quickly. So let's just hear the clip and
24:39
then we're going to roast her. One year on from the release of
24:44
Mario Draghi's report on the future of European
24:47
competitiveness, it remains essential to follow up on its
24:51
recommendations with further concrete action and to
24:55
accelerate implementation in line with the European
24:59
Commission's road map. Governments should prioritize
25:03
growth, enhancing structural reforms and strategic investment
25:07
while ensuring sustainable public finance.
25:11
It is critical to complete the Savings and Investment Union and
25:16
the Banking Union to an ambitious timetable and to
25:20
rapidly establish the legislative framework for the
25:23
potential introduction of our digital euro.
25:28
Dude, read the room, Chrissy, read the room.
25:31
You know what? What is super interesting about
25:32
this? Well.
25:35
The room is like literally asylum coated.
25:37
With like that calm. That calm blue so that everyone
25:41
just remains calm and peaceful and it's like the world is
25:44
literally on fire with the things that she's talking about.
25:47
Yeah. And and also what what is most
25:50
funny about it is she keeps harping on this idea of
25:53
financial stability that, you know, oh, if we update our
25:57
payment system, if we update our euro to the digital euro, it's
26:01
going to give us more financial stability.
26:03
It's going to keep us ahead. It's not going to stop the
26:06
collapse we are seeing of the European Union's finances.
26:10
The more they try to control the money, the more it's starting to
26:14
become out of control, which is why you're starting to see her
26:17
continue to double, triple. I'm sure she's going to
26:19
quadruple down before October. But also, if you're reading the
26:22
room here, it sounds like they aren't even ready to launch it
26:26
and they've been saying October, you know, if they don't have the
26:29
regulatory framework, I'm guessing they don't have the
26:32
code, which shouldn't be too hard.
26:33
It's just an SQL basically. They already have the the Euro
26:37
digital. But you're starting to feel the
26:39
panic. You're starting to see that
26:41
they, they're absolutely terrified of what's coming and
26:44
they're just trying to move fast and of course they're going to
26:47
break some things. So look, if you are in the EU
26:51
right now, it is not looking too good.
26:54
Your leadership is just continuing to barrel down into a
26:58
dystopian technocratic future and they're trying to paint this
27:03
like a good thing. I don't know what's going on
27:07
from Chrissy's perspective. I think she is completely out of
27:11
touch with what's going on on mainstream, but they just don't
27:14
care. They just want to continue to
27:16
push the CBDC legislation. They want to get it launched
27:20
apparently in two weeks. It doesn't sound like it's ready
27:23
to be launched in two weeks. So there is a silver lining
27:26
here. Maybe they won't be hitting
27:27
their deadline. The more they screech about
27:29
hitting their deadline, the more I know that they are struggling
27:33
to hit this deadline. So hey, look, the more we're
27:36
seeing authoritarian rule over your finances, and this doesn't
27:40
even account for, I don't know if you guys saw in the Financial
27:42
Times, the Bank of England just proposed to essentially protect
27:48
the system that they're going to cap stablecoin limits from
27:53
10,000 to 20,000 lbs. So not only are they trying to
27:58
push us into, or rather you, our European brothers over there,
28:01
not only are they trying to push us into a wholly controlled
28:05
digital system, but they're capping the exit rooms.
28:09
They're, they're, they're capping the way you get out of
28:11
it. They're capping the valve.
28:12
So the more that they try capital controls, the more I
28:16
know they're terrified. So this push is not a good look
28:20
for the European Union. ECB completely out of touch.
28:23
You're starting to see there is a war going on right now from
28:25
the ECB and the Fed, or rather maybe you can say from Trump and
28:30
the European Union. And they are scrambling for
28:33
their control and you can start to sense that they're terrified.
28:36
And so they're trying to push this as quickly as possible.
28:39
Who knows when they can get this to launch, But hey, you heard it
28:43
from her. They're trying to get this
28:44
launched as soon as possible. I think that they are frankly
28:49
terrified because the reality is that the government in Europe
28:54
can pretty much make this happen whenever they want.
28:57
I think they haven't made it happen because of the
29:01
ramifications that they know could arise from making a move
29:08
like this. I mean, people aren't dumb.
29:10
A lot of people will push back against this.
29:14
We saw this weekend the protests that happened in the UK,
29:19
millions of people on the street.
29:22
And of course that's a cultural thing that has nothing to do
29:25
with with Bitcoin. But if you give these people one
29:31
more thing to be angry about, I think that the same sentiment is
29:36
just going to spread all over the other countries in, in
29:39
Europe. And I, I, I do not think that
29:43
that they are thinking about how to roll it out.
29:46
I think they're thinking about the reaction that it's going to
29:49
get from people. But yeah, I would completely
29:53
agree with that. And I think the more, as you
29:55
said, they are getting a lot of political protests right now.
29:59
There's a lot of chaos going on not only in the US or UK, but
30:03
around the world. I don't know if you guys saw
30:04
what happened in Nepal. These Jens ears went, you know,
30:08
kudos to them. They're they're, they're going
30:10
buck right now and. Honestly, like if they can pull
30:13
something off like that, what makes you think that a bunch of
30:17
not just Bitcoiners, but Pete, maybe, maybe there are people
30:20
who have never even heard of Bitcoin, but they don't like the
30:23
idea of the government overreaching and surveilling
30:27
them through their purchases. I mean, it's not like they can't
30:31
really do that now really with Fiat, but just making it, yeah,
30:37
this just makes it like a little bit easier and it it kind of
30:41
takes away one of the obstacles that they have to go through in
30:46
order to attain that information.
30:49
So I don't know, man. I think, you know, they have the
30:54
power to push this through tomorrow if they want to.
30:57
But a lot of the information that they're getting, you know,
31:02
from from advisors is probably cautioning them to keep the
31:07
temperature down. Right now the temperature is
31:10
very hot all over the world and this is something that might
31:14
break the camel's back. Yeah, 100%.
31:18
We're seeing this globally right now.
31:20
And as I was saying last week to wrap up the week, I think it's
31:24
more important than ever for us Bitcoiners to be just sitting
31:28
here, you know, with open arms waiting for everyone.
31:30
You know, it's taken a long time for people to catch up to
31:33
everything that Bitcoiners have understood and have believed for
31:36
a long time. But as we're starting to see
31:40
countries panic, individuals panic because no one really
31:44
knows what's going on. No, no one is really paying too
31:47
much attention. They're just trying to survive
31:50
at this point. I think it's going to be more
31:52
important than ever for bitcoiners to be ready to get,
31:55
you know, people saving in Bitcoin, taking Bitcoin into
31:58
cold storage. It it's starting to be just very
32:02
interesting to watch Bitcoin creators and inventors right
32:05
now. Like, I don't know if you guys
32:06
saw that bit Chat, the new Bluetooth chat app by Jack
32:12
Dorsey was one of the most downloaded apps right now in
32:15
this whole Nepal uprising. And so the tools that Bitcoiners
32:19
have been building and will continue to build are starting
32:22
to become some of the most important tools that we have at
32:26
our disposal. And so again, it's just super
32:29
important for us Bitcoiners to stay cool, calm and collected
32:32
and show, hey, look, there is a solution to these problems.
32:36
You don't have to go out there. You don't have to do anything
32:38
crazy like the tools are here. You need to start saving in
32:42
Bitcoin using Bitcoin wallets and communication apps.
32:47
They're here for us. It's just people haven't been
32:50
ready for them. But of course, when they feel
32:52
more pain, that's when they start looking for the solution.
32:55
And it looks like they're there's been pain and there
32:58
might be more pain on the horizon.
32:59
There might be as much pain on the horizon as I'm feeling in my
33:02
back right now, but it's it's getting, it's getting crazy out
33:07
there. So it's just very interesting to
33:10
watch that the world is kind of bubbling right now.
33:13
There is a lot of tension in the air everywhere.
33:16
And I think it's I think it's becoming very clear people are
33:19
waking up to that. There's very real problems and
33:22
they need some new, you know, some new solutions and obviously
33:26
Bitcoin is that solution. Bitcoin is hope.
33:29
Anyways, on that same note, let's get into the news because
33:33
we, we, we're seeing some other crazy stuff happen that I think
33:36
is a little under the radar because it's not as catastrophic
33:40
in in sense of, you know, protest and, you know, as as
33:45
dramatic and, and graphic as all the scenes we saw around the
33:50
weekend going on. But a lot of people woke up this
33:53
morning and realized that the money they have in the bank is
33:56
not actually their money and they can't get their money out.
33:59
And This is why we're bitcoiners.
34:01
This is why we constantly tell you, you need to at the very
34:04
least, have a small nest egg already set up because things
34:08
are going to continue to get crazy.
34:10
So on that new let's get into the news.
34:14
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36:05
All right, guys. Jamming out to our own music.
36:08
I'm just like here. Oh man, vibing.
36:12
Oh man. I'm vibing for you.
36:14
Update I feel your pain. I'm in pain guys.
36:16
I tweaked my back this morning dead lifting and I'm cooked
36:21
anyways. It was my fault though guys, I
36:23
had some bad technique and I am cooked anyways.
36:26
Anyways, enough enough complaining.
36:29
This is a crazy story that happened.
36:32
It is flying under the radar a little bit.
36:34
I'm sure maybe you heard about it, but it is obviously not
36:37
getting the same amount of fanfare that we're seeing of a
36:40
lot of different political uprisings happening currently
36:44
because it happened silently. And this is a trend that we've
36:47
been talking about for years on this show, that, hey, this might
36:51
happen in the US or in any Western country right now.
36:56
We've seen this happen in other countries and they happen every
37:01
once in awhile. This might be one of the bigger
37:03
ones that we saw. And of course, it's always under
37:05
the guise of, you know, protection from scams or this is
37:09
for your benefit or you know, KYC AM L laws.
37:13
But this one is pretty huge. So the headline from Coin
37:17
Telegraph is Thailand citizens are waking up to frozen bank
37:21
accounts. Bitcoin, anyone?
37:23
This is why we constantly tell you This is why you need
37:25
Bitcoin. So Thailand froze 3 million bank
37:29
accounts in an anti scam crackdown, ensnaring users and
37:33
prompting debate over whether Bitcoin offers a safer
37:36
alternative. I don't think it's a debate at
37:38
this point. Obviously there's people that
37:40
are skeptics, but going into this.
37:42
Innocent people and businesses have reportedly been caught in
37:45
the crossfire as Thai banks froze millions of accounts
37:48
suspected to be quote mules for scammers over the weekend.
37:52
The nationwide crackdown began in August and we can report
37:55
suggest that banks have frozen 3,000,000 accounts and imposed
37:58
daily transfer limits on all bank customers in the Kingdom,
38:02
according to the report. However, the Cybercrime
38:05
Investigation Investigation Bureau reported on Sunday that
38:08
bank accounts of innocent online vendors and merchants are being
38:11
frozen to after scammers adopted new methods to launder stolen
38:15
money, according to the Bangkok Post.
38:17
Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand warned that more people could
38:20
face freezes as authorities widen to dragnet and investigate
38:24
mule accounts. Quote We urge the public not to
38:26
panic. The suspension is only temporary
38:29
and will be lifted once checks confirm no wrongdoing, said
38:33
Digital Economy and Society Minister Secretary Whis Lissora
38:38
at on Monday, adding that commercial banks may suspend
38:41
suspect funds for up to three days, while the police may
38:45
extend the Super the suspension to seven days.
38:49
So Bank of Thailand freezes 3,000,000 accounts, sets daily
38:54
transfer limits of 50,000 and 200,000 baht to curb $6 billion
38:58
bot scam losses. Absolutely insane what we're
39:03
seeing right now. And of course you know it goes
39:06
on. Expatriates reside in the
39:08
country of taking the social media in online forms and drugs
39:11
to complain about being debanked or locked out of banking
39:13
services in the country. Recently, several have seen
39:16
their accounts at specific banks arbitrarily frozen or restricted
39:20
for weeks with no explanation. Resident foreigners now have to
39:24
register their biometrics at their local bank in person and
39:27
follow strict KYC procedures to make larger transactions with
39:31
the mobile app. Absolutely insane.
39:35
And of course, This is why we constantly say that you, if you
39:40
know the the old saying of don't put any money in Bitcoin, you
39:43
don't want to lose is starting to lose.
39:46
It's it's weight here because it's really don't leave any
39:51
money in the Fiat system. You don't want to lose because
39:54
as things start to get crazier, as we start to see more
39:58
societal, I don't know if collapse is the word, but more
40:01
societal turmoil. This is exactly what what
40:04
happened. We haven't seen this fully
40:07
happen in the West, except for what happened in Canada under
40:10
the trucker's protest. But we are seeing this happen
40:14
everywhere. And of course, it's very
40:16
interesting that they use the guise of, you know, there was
40:19
some scams. You guys are mules.
40:21
We're here to protect you guys. There's only temporary.
40:23
You'll get your money back. It could potentially be
40:26
temporary, but the point remains the same.
40:29
If you are leaving your money in a bank, it is no longer your
40:32
money. This is why we love Bitcoin
40:35
because it's truly sovereign money.
40:37
It's the only money you actually own as long as you take your
40:41
Bitcoin into custody. So absolutely insane what we're
40:46
seeing. And to answer the question of
40:47
the article, yes, Bitcoin is the alternative.
40:50
This is why we are bitcoiners. This is why we so fervently
40:54
believe in Bitcoin because we understand, hey, this may only
40:58
be happening in Thailand right now, but it's only a hop
41:02
skipping away from this happening in every Western
41:04
country. If things do go crazy, the first
41:07
thing they do is they shut off your money because, you know,
41:11
they don't really care about the citizens out there.
41:14
But as we're seeing, they are using a bunch of different
41:17
guises for this, whether it's the protection from scams,
41:20
whether it's the protection from Fiat stability, they will use
41:24
whatever excuse they can or want to to freeze your accounts.
41:29
So if you are just a normal person, you may be asking or
41:34
hearing this story and being like what?
41:36
Like, I'm not doing anything criminal.
41:38
I'm not connected to scammers. Doesn't matter.
41:41
As you can see, they're using a full dragnet, just a huge
41:45
surveillance opportunity to cut anyone and everyone off the
41:49
system. This is why we're Bitcoiners.
41:51
This is why we wholly advocate for Bitcoin because at some
41:54
point, unless things start to get figured out very quickly,
41:59
this is coming to every country near you.
42:01
We've seen them talk about this constantly.
42:04
The World Economic Forum has been talking about this.
42:07
We're seeing the US Treasury seemingly talking about
42:10
something similar. Here it is.
42:12
It's just it's starting to get insane.
42:15
And we all know once a country goes towards capital controls,
42:19
it doesn't end good. So yes, this might, just must be
42:22
happening in Thailand right now. We're seeing the UK is starting
42:26
to implement capital controls in the US, It's still up for debate
42:30
what's going to happen. But as these countries start to
42:34
lose control, the first thing they will do is they will try to
42:37
control your money. And of course, they're going to
42:39
use the term temporary. They're going to use these ideas
42:42
that, oh, you know, this is to protect you from scammers.
42:47
I'm sure if you woke up and your account was frozen, you'd
42:51
probably be thinking only one person was a scammer here.
42:54
So like wait. I thought one of the hold on.
42:57
I thought one of the perks of having a bank account is that,
43:02
you know, to a certain extent your funds are protected
43:05
because, you know, let's, let's not kid ourselves, there are a
43:10
lot of scammers in Bitcoin and in the crypto space, right?
43:16
But the difference here is that Bitcoin empowers you to take
43:21
that responsibility into your own hands.
43:24
There is no hacker that's suddenly going to go into a
43:29
banking database and leak all of your, you know, passwords and
43:33
information and just drain your bank account.
43:35
And even if they did, supposedly the bank should cover you for a
43:39
certain amount, right? I thought that was one of the
43:41
perks. I don't know if Thai Central
43:44
Bank has FDIC insurance like U.S. bank.
43:46
I'm sure that's not. It damn then, then Thai, then
43:51
Thai people really need to get on their they need Bitcoin
43:56
because if you don't have that insurance, then literally not
44:01
like forget about, you know, the government being able to do what
44:05
they can do, because that's, I mean, any government can do
44:09
that. Any private institution, central
44:12
government can or central banking system can do that.
44:17
It's that's just like, you know, it is what it is.
44:20
But the fact that scammers can hack the system and just take
44:24
all of your money and you have no recourse in getting it back.
44:28
Like if you're already going to like bear that kind of
44:31
responsibility, you might as well be your own bank and have
44:35
your Bitcoin in self custody. Where hackers can't get to it
44:39
and you know scammers will only steal from you if you let them
44:43
like let's be real a lot of a lot of people you know they are
44:47
victims to it and and it's not their fault obviously,
44:49
especially elderly people who don't really know how all of
44:53
this works. But you're you at least have the
44:56
opportunity to learn, right? If you're asleep halfway across
45:01
the world and you know someone else is logging into your bank
45:05
account trying to hack all of your information and just
45:08
draining your bank account and you have no ability to stop
45:12
that. Like that's completely out of
45:14
your hands. At least with scammers, you can,
45:17
you know, educate yourself and learn how to avoid those types
45:22
of situations, especially if you have your Bitcoin in self
45:25
custody or have some sort of system like, you know, multi sig
45:30
or anything like that. There are ways to protect
45:33
yourself in ways that not even apparently these central banks
45:37
can do for you. So the fact that this happened
45:41
should be a huge wake up call for Thailand.
45:44
I mean, my heart is with everybody who had their bank
45:47
accounts frozen. Cash must be king right now over
45:52
there. I mean, I, I don't know how
45:54
these people are surviving, but if they have Bitcoin and if they
45:59
are, you know, trading peer-to-peer with other
46:02
Bitcoiners, they are, you know, probably in a better position
46:05
than most. Yeah, yeah, 100%.
46:11
And I think the scariest thing is like it just happens
46:14
overnight. You know, you can, you can think
46:18
your life is good and then the very next day you're just
46:21
completely shut out of the system and there's no warning.
46:24
And if you didn't prep beforehand, you're in shambles.
46:29
And that's what we're seeing happen.
46:30
And we've heard this happen for a lot of people in Western
46:34
countries. And This is why I think Bitcoin
46:38
is that revolutionary money is because once you hold that
46:41
money, you can't be stopped. And I think that's one of the
46:45
most important things for most people to understand.
46:48
I know in the West we are very comfortable and we think that
46:51
will never happen. But we've seen this happen a lot
46:54
of times throughout the history of man.
46:57
And we have a tool now. As I was saying earlier, we have
47:00
all kinds of tools now to protect us from this stuff.
47:02
And so you don't have to take this type of abuse from your
47:06
country, from your, from your local bank.
47:08
This this doesn't need to happen anymore.
47:11
There is an alternative and it is Bitcoin.
47:13
And so, you know, shout out to everyone in Thailand right now
47:18
that got their account froze for no reason.
47:21
I think this is only going to ramp up.
47:23
I think it's going to continue to increase until, you know,
47:27
morale around Bitcoin starts to increase.
47:30
Until people start waking up to Bitcoin.
47:32
This is going to continue very silently, very subtle.
47:36
And then once that big moment comes, once that watershed
47:39
moment comes, it will come down even more violently.
47:42
And so you want to make sure you have savings in Bitcoin or else
47:46
this could be one of us next. So that's like the most
47:49
important thing to be talking about.
47:51
And people in Europe, this should be your warning.
47:54
This should literally be what you are afraid of because this
47:59
is one of the, the many consequences that may arise if
48:05
Chrissy Lagarde gets her way and passes this CDBC and makes it,
48:10
you know, kind of a mandate for everybody to use it.
48:13
And Europe is is weird because cash is very, very widely used
48:20
in Europe. So imagine if that system just
48:23
changes overnight to where the government maybe doesn't mandate
48:29
ACBDC, but they like heavily push it.
48:33
I really do think that people in Europe will not stand for that.
48:37
And and this what what happened in Thailand should be a warning.
48:43
I don't know, It looks like the people of Europe like to get
48:46
pushed around. I don't mean to make light of
48:49
it, but I. Don't know.
48:51
I don't know there. Have been.
48:52
Certain revolutions that have happened.
48:55
A long time. Ago.
48:56
Well, they're very known for protesting, and I have a lot of
49:02
hope. I have a lot of hope in people.
49:04
I think that people have had enough of government overreach,
49:08
enough of the the policies that have led them to feeling this
49:17
disdain for for their politicians.
49:21
So you know, something's going to break the camel's back.
49:24
I hope whatever happens is peaceful.
49:27
And, and again, the best way to keep it peaceful is to just
49:30
defund these systems by opting out, buying Bitcoin, putting it
49:35
into self custody. I can't tell you how powerful
49:38
that is and how scared these people are of you doing that.
49:43
Because The thing is when people get violent, that's when the
49:48
government can use the excuse to be violent back.
49:52
So the best thing that you can do is literally be peaceful, opt
49:57
out and defund them by buying Bitcoin and putting it into self
50:02
custody. It's it's the most powerful
50:03
thing that you can do in this lifetime right now.
50:08
Bars. Absolute bars.
50:09
This is the way. OK, guys, let's well we're going
50:14
to wrap up the show and in one minute and talk about what
50:18
potentially these interest rates are going to do and what they
50:22
have done historically. So.
50:23
You got this. We're we're.
50:25
We're almost through. We're we're going to, we're
50:28
going to end on some macro stuff.
50:29
So hey, if you don't want to hear the macro stuff, we'll see
50:32
you tomorrow. But a lot of people have been
50:33
loving the macro stuff. A lot of people have been loving
50:36
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52:45
All right, guys. So you guys know, I've been on a
52:47
macro kick and you guys were trolling me on Friday, Thursday,
52:52
I think all of last week, basically because I was taking a
52:56
a potential view that when we get these rate cuts, it might
53:01
not do exactly what you think is going to do to the market.
53:04
Everyone has essentially been saying once these rate cut
53:06
comes, guys like it's all green Mac, all the markets are going
53:10
to start pumping like free money's coming back, money
53:13
printers back on guys, liquidity up the wazoo.
53:17
Bitcoin is pumping. And while I agree with that long
53:20
term, again Kobayashi letter has been doing a good, good thread
53:26
on what exactly is going with historical data here.
53:29
So first one is I'm going to cover kind of the what has
53:34
happened in the past and then we're going to go into gold
53:36
'cause I think that is what is probably all of the signal right
53:40
now. So Kobe, Austria later goes.
53:42
The time has come. On Wednesday, the Fed will cut
53:44
rates for the first time in 2025 and quote, blame a weak labor
53:48
market. This will be just the third year
53:51
since 1996 when Fed rate cuts while the S&P 500 is at record
53:56
highs. So what happens next?
53:58
And this is where it gets interesting again.
54:00
You got to remember Fed rate cuts with S&P at all time high.
54:04
I don't know if you guys saw S&P 500 ripping as well.
54:07
And so in fact, U.S. stock valuations have reached their
54:10
highest level on record according to
54:12
bloombergthissurpassesthe.com bubble and 1929 peak before the
54:17
Great Depression. But it may be justified as the
54:19
world experiences its biggest technological revolution in 20
54:22
plus years. So if you're looking at this
54:25
just, you know, based on the data, this is probably why we're
54:29
seeing a lot of like Dumer stuff come out from from very
54:33
prominent bitcoiners, like, oh, the dollar is going to collapse
54:35
tomorrow. Because like look at this chart
54:38
where we're basically at a bigger bubblethanthe.com bubble,
54:42
the Great Depression. And then the opposite view is,
54:46
yeah, that's true if you're looking at the data, but also
54:49
we're seeing a technological revolution driven by, you know,
54:52
the Mag 7 and of course AI. And this is where you start to
54:56
really ask yourself, OK, are we in the middle of a Fiat debt
55:01
bubble or are we seeing, you know, the improvements via
55:05
technology that we're, we've always been promised?
55:08
And this is where it starts getting a little tricky because
55:11
I think we are seeing improvements via technology, but
55:14
we are also in the middle of, as Ray Dalio has been saying, a
55:18
debt crisis. And hence, while all these
55:20
valuations are getting super crazy anyways, it's a rather
55:24
unique situation for the Fed this this time around.
55:26
Typically the Fed cuts interest rates in a weak economy with
55:29
stocks well below record highs. While the strength of the
55:32
economy is up for debate, GDP growth remains robust.
55:36
GDP is growing at 3% per year, which is basically what they
55:40
like. This is this is like, good for
55:42
them. They're like, we're killing it
55:44
anyways. And inflation data is not
55:46
running hot again. This week's data showed core CPI
55:48
inflation at 3.1. It's kind of in there the
55:52
ballpark of the metrics they've been talking about in a broad
55:55
based horizon across the board. Core inflation is now 110 bits
55:58
above the feds long term target. Meanwhile, the debate is whether
56:01
to cut rates by 25 or 50 or even Trump was saying 100 bits this
56:05
time. So I don't think the debate is
56:08
anymore whether they're going to cut rates.
56:09
I think the debate we're seeing is how much are they going to
56:12
cut rates. And I that will tell us some
56:14
signals depending on how big they cut.
56:17
I know a lot of people been saying we're probably going to
56:19
see two rate cuts happen, you know, back-to-back months.
56:23
We'll see how deep they are. We'll see if they even do.
56:26
That's kind of where it starts to get interesting.
56:29
And as they wrap this thread up, here's why.
56:31
The labor market is cracking, forcing the Fed to cut rates.
56:34
The index of US customers saying jobs are plentiful declined to
56:38
34.1 in July, the lowest level since 2021.
56:41
This is down -20 or roughly 22 points over the last two years
56:45
as the labor market has materially slowed down.
56:48
I've been hearing a lot of rumors and speculation, second
56:50
hand accounts of people saying like, hey, I just graduated
56:54
college, you know, I have all of the requirements for a good job
56:57
and I still can't get a job. It's, it's getting a little
57:00
rough out there for a lot of people.
57:02
Anyways, amid GDP growth, hot inflation in the AI revolution,
57:06
stocks are partying. The S&P 500 just closed at its
57:09
24th record high of 2024 and is now up over 35% since April's
57:13
low. This marks one of the best five
57:15
month rally in S&P 5S and P500 history, in line with the 2008
57:20
recovery. Now this is where it gets
57:23
interesting. Rate cuts will add fuel to this
57:25
fire. We expect the Fed to cut
57:27
interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday with the S&P
57:30
500 at a record high. There have been two years since
57:33
96 where rate cuts have happened with stocks at a record high
57:37
2019 and 2024. So what comes next when the Fed
57:41
rate cuts within 2% of all time high?
57:44
The S&P 500 typically loves this and 20 of the last 20 times this
57:48
has happened, the S&P 500 has ended higher one year later.
57:53
Again, in a year we will probably be looking back at this
57:57
and laughing at about it because it's just going to basically add
58:00
rocket fuel. I've been seeing a Mel Madison,
58:03
I believe his name is on Twitter.
58:05
He's like everyone is forecasting A recession.
58:08
He's like SP500's an all time high.
58:09
It's going to be absolutely higher.
58:11
He's a bull on Bitcoin and gold. He's like, guys, assets are
58:14
going to go absolutely skyrocket here.
58:19
And I totally agree with that. Now it is interesting though
58:22
that this data from Kobayashi letter is showing us the short
58:26
term, you know, maybe a month out could be a little different
58:29
than we see 12 months out. So the S&P 500 has risen on
58:33
average of 13.9% over the following 12 months.
58:37
And then however, over the immediate term, this is where
58:40
I've been getting called a, a bear here because I'm like,
58:43
look, I, we might be in for a market correction, a short
58:47
market correction, but a correction nonetheless.
58:50
So over the immediate term, such as the next 30 days, results are
58:53
more mixed. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has
58:56
fallen in the following month. 11 out of 22 times that this has
59:00
happened, particularly in the late 80s and 90s stocks all
59:03
weakness over the short term. You can see here, it's going to
59:06
be, you know, if it does dump, it'll be a short dump and then
59:10
it's going to rally afterwards. So I'm not saying it's over here
59:13
all I'm saying this might be what plays out.
59:17
I know long term, a year out from now, we're going to be
59:20
looking back and we're going to be having a party because all
59:23
the liquidity, I'm totally on board with that.
59:26
I'm just saying when these, you know, come in and people finally
59:31
make up their mind and they start to invest or rather
59:34
pulling some investments, we will know who has, you know, no
59:37
clothes when the water recedes here.
59:40
So that's kind of what Kobayashi letter is saying.
59:43
They expect a similar outcome. There will be immediate short
59:47
term volatility, but long term asset owners are partying guys.
59:50
So look, I'm not saying that it's over here.
59:54
All I'm saying is there could be some volatility this week
59:58
because of the all the different stuff going on now.
1:00:00
I have been hearing a little more positive voices out there
1:00:03
that's saying, guys. Everyone that is planning for
1:00:06
the dollar to blow up or recession to be on the horizon
1:00:08
isn't looking at the right data. I think assets are going to RIP.
1:00:12
And with that, I, I am starting to lean towards that idea that
1:00:17
the mag 7 equities, you know, stocks, S&P 500, they're ripping
1:00:22
at all time high gold, everything is ripping right now.
1:00:25
And I think it's obviously this idea of a technological
1:00:29
revolution. Now I'm not the biggest AI guy,
1:00:32
but you are seeing there is a lot of capital going into AI and
1:00:36
that is fundamentally changing our world as we speak.
1:00:40
It is fundamentally shifting because of AI.
1:00:42
Now, will it completely take over everything?
1:00:45
I don't know. I've been I've been kind of
1:00:46
trolling and saying it's, you know, glorified search engine.
1:00:50
But as they're saying, you know, interest rate cuts are coming
1:00:53
into rising inflation and the AI revolution only adding fuel to
1:00:58
the fire. So gold and Bitcoin have known
1:01:00
this. This is why they're running the
1:01:02
straight line higher price action.
1:01:04
We have seen in these asset classes pricing in what's
1:01:06
coming. Gold and Bitcoin, no lower rates
1:01:09
are on the horizon and it's only going to push push assets
1:01:13
higher. So it's great to own this long
1:01:15
term. This is what we're seeing long
1:01:17
term that it's, you know, you probably want to be buying
1:01:20
Bitcoin right now, you probably need to be holding Bitcoin right
1:01:23
now. But I think another interesting
1:01:25
thing we are seeing play out in the markets is what's going on
1:01:29
with gold. I've been covering the metric
1:01:31
for you guys that central banks have accumulated more gold than
1:01:35
Treasuries first time in 1996, and we're starting to see that
1:01:41
gold is starting to take Treasury's place as the reserve
1:01:44
asset. Now, do I think we're going back
1:01:46
to a gold standard? Absolutely not.
1:01:48
But if they are accumulating gold at the moment, it is
1:01:52
telling you something's going on in the system.
1:01:54
If they are kind of rewriting their playbook, it is showing
1:01:58
you there's a shift going on. And so this is a great tweet
1:02:01
here. In January 1980, gold reached
1:02:03
$850 per oz and equivalent to $3590.00 in today's dollars.
1:02:09
And during one of the most turbulent periods in the US
1:02:11
economic history, marked by a collapse in currency, runaway
1:02:15
inflation and recession. And today gold is trading above
1:02:19
that at a $3650 per per oz. I I think it's even higher this
1:02:23
morning. And it has surpassed that
1:02:26
milestone and is up $39.00 a year today, with rate cuts on
1:02:30
the horizon and inflation showing little sign of slowing,
1:02:33
the bull market for gold and other hard assets appear far
1:02:36
from over. And of course, the other hard
1:02:38
asset is Bitcoin. Now I think this is some of the
1:02:41
biggest signal here. Gold is money and sovereign debt
1:02:44
is no longer the reserve asset. Central banks are buying a lot,
1:02:48
but they need a lot more for gold to account for 60% of total
1:02:52
reserves, central banks would need to purchase an additional
1:02:54
40,000 to 60,000 tons of physical gold doubling or
1:02:59
tripling their current holders gold up averse debt index down.
1:03:03
You are starting to see there is a shift happening.
1:03:06
Well, whether this is going back, it's.
1:03:09
Like we're living in parallel. Literally, literally.
1:03:14
Like people are buying the ETFs. We need to back it up with real
1:03:17
Bitcoin. People are buying, you know,
1:03:20
paper gold or whatever, and they're going to have to pay
1:03:23
back it up with real gold at some point, right?
1:03:27
Yeah, Opti AI. Well, no dude, I'm I'm too.
1:03:33
I'm. Too too too language opti.
1:03:34
I'm too stupid to be a look. This is how I know I'm going to
1:03:37
have a job forever because ChatGPT can't be disregarded,
1:03:42
OK? It can't dumb itself down to
1:03:44
this level. But yeah, what we're seeing is
1:03:47
very interesting. I think all eyes are on the Fed
1:03:51
on Wednesday. We will be very clear by the end
1:03:55
of the week of what's going on. Again, I think bitcoins going to
1:03:59
start ripping. I think October is totally in
1:04:03
play, but this week could be very interesting.
1:04:06
I am, you know, maybe hedging my thinking here where on the one
1:04:10
hand I think the markets are going to RIP.
1:04:12
That's kind of the more bullish take.
1:04:14
I think markets are going to RIP with interest rate cuts because
1:04:16
everyone's already pricing this in.
1:04:19
They're probably just waiting for this to fully be announced
1:04:23
so that they can kind of take a take a deep breath and then make
1:04:27
their moves. Now, the smart money, as we're
1:04:30
seeing in gold and Bitcoin, is already pricing in rate cuts.
1:04:33
And so who knows if this is a sell the news or buy yeah buy
1:04:37
the room or sell the news scenario.
1:04:40
I think what what usually tends to happen or the way that I
1:04:43
would think if I was an investor in this position is like people
1:04:47
are, you know, buying a lot of assets right now, whether that
1:04:50
be Bitcoin or on the S&P 500, whatever, you know, whatever
1:04:55
floats your boat. And then they probably, you
1:04:58
know, the whatever they buy will probably like pump a little bit
1:05:02
upon the the news, whatever news we get and and then it'll and
1:05:08
then they sell because they just want the short return very
1:05:12
quickly. And I think that's why it dumps
1:05:15
because the majority of people tend to sell right when they see
1:05:19
that small increase. That's kind of what they're used
1:05:22
to and what makes those sorts of investors happy.
1:05:25
You know, the majority, the normies and you know, people
1:05:30
forget that Bitcoin is a long term investment.
1:05:33
So are you OK? Oh, I know, but people forget
1:05:38
that, you know, Bitcoin is a long term investment and you
1:05:41
know, while we might see some volatility this week, we might
1:05:44
see it for two weeks. You know, we, we've been through
1:05:47
worse bitcoiners. We, we, we, this is nothing for
1:05:50
us. If we just hold for a little bit
1:05:55
longer huddle, you know our famous mantra here.
1:06:00
I think we will be very fruitfully rewarded.
1:06:04
And, and, and the, the charts, the history just points that
1:06:08
out. You know, it's, it's happened
1:06:10
before. So you, you just got a, you got
1:06:13
a chill I'm getting. Cooked, I'm getting a.
1:06:18
Literal like shot of tequila. Right now.
1:06:20
Oh man, guys. I feel so bad.
1:06:23
Last week it was me, like I was having pain in my mouth last
1:06:27
week and I could barely talk and now he's having pain in his back
1:06:31
and he can't sit. So we're just like, it's a rough
1:06:34
Monday, it's a rough Monday, But yeah, to your point.
1:06:37
So we could be seeing something like that.
1:06:40
We could see the price rally and then maybe dump as people tried
1:06:45
to, you know, position themselves.
1:06:47
But I think as the data shows and as everyone's kind of been
1:06:51
thinking and look, you guys have been trolling me the last week
1:06:54
or so because I'm trying to rationally look at the market
1:07:01
versus just, you know, think of the memes here.
1:07:04
We know long term this is going to be extremely bullish, more,
1:07:08
more easy money in the system, more liquidity.
1:07:10
This is going to RIP. Now I'm just trying to, you
1:07:14
know, brush up my prediction mechanisms here and we'll see
1:07:17
who's right. On Wednesday, I will come on the
1:07:20
show or maybe it'll be Thursday, probably Thursday.
1:07:24
On Thursday, I will come on the show and we can, you know, go
1:07:27
all over this again and we'll we'll see what the markets are
1:07:31
actually doing. But it is very interesting
1:07:35
what's going on. You're starting to see a lot of
1:07:37
change go on in the system. You're seeing a reordering of
1:07:39
the monetary system or the monetary order around the world.
1:07:43
And, and I do believe Bitcoin has a place in the middle of all
1:07:47
this as we're seeing we're growing up here and people want
1:07:50
some Bitcoin. So on that note, guys, I got to,
1:07:56
I got to go lay on the couch, dude.
1:07:57
I got to, I got to, I got to sign off.
1:07:59
So I love you guys. We will be back tomorrow.
1:08:03
Nika will be back tomorrow. Same time as always on that
1:08:07
note, peace out, touch some grass.
1:08:09
Don't hurt your back. Get some sun, all that good
1:08:13
stuff. All right, later, guys.
1:08:14
We'll see you tomorrow. Today's episode was brought to
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you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
1:08:21
mission to enable financial independence.