Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 12

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NFL Gambling Recap | Week 12 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
0:15
Speaker 1: is our NFL Week twelve Sunday Recap. I am Chad Milman.
0:20
Speaker 1: I am joined by my bff, my companion, Michael Padre,
0:23
Speaker 1: my co host Professional Better Simon Hunter Ello. So I'm
0:29
Speaker 1: in a little bit late tonight, a little bit delayed
0:31
Speaker 1: because we've all been sweating the end of the Eagles bills.
0:35
Speaker 1: We had the Bills plus three and a half. It
0:38
Speaker 1: was an interesting day. What the God's he's going on today?
0:45
Speaker 2: Why was this game not flexed? This is such a
0:48
Speaker 2: great game. I cannot believe that they make this the
0:49
Speaker 2: Sunday night game. But yeah, we're all sweating our bets
0:52
Speaker 2: right now and hoping for the best trat. I'm a
0:55
Speaker 2: professional doing this show while keeping one eye on the TV.
0:59
Speaker 1: We are definitely lee a professional. You're so far ahead
1:04
Speaker 1: of me in this game, and you're watching it while
1:05
Speaker 1: I'm trying to read our script. Listen, next week you
1:09
Speaker 1: can experience all of this live exactly what's happening right now,
1:13
Speaker 1: the end of the wired tension, the sweat, the anxiety
1:16
Speaker 1: as Simon and I live through the end of our bets,
1:20
Speaker 1: we are going to be live The Shepherd and the
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Speaker 1: knuckle Mind God Hoboken, New Jersey. Free to get in,
1:26
Speaker 1: free drinks, free chance to bet with Me and Simon,
1:30
Speaker 1: get hugs after the game. You must RSVP next Sunday.
1:35
Speaker 1: Check out the link in the description here, both on
1:38
Speaker 1: the show's YouTube page and in the podcast episode. Also
1:41
Speaker 1: go to event bright dot com search the Favorites podcast
1:45
Speaker 1: for more info and to our SVP. Again, that's Shepherd
1:49
Speaker 1: in the Knucklehead. Next Sunday, doors open four pm for
1:52
Speaker 1: the afternoon games, show goes live seven thirty free entry,
1:55
Speaker 1: free drinks, fun betting with Me and Simon. As a
1:58
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Speaker 1: conditions restrictions apply. All right, So what do we know
2:41
Speaker 1: right now? Because I'm reading the script so I can't
2:43
Speaker 1: see the screen. No, what happened?
2:47
Speaker 2: Eagles had a field goal? It's going to ot.
2:50
Speaker 1: Are you freaking kidding me?
2:51
Speaker 2: Now? On fourth and seventeen they hit a field goal.
2:54
Speaker 2: I can't believe it.
2:55
Speaker 3: Fifty nine yard field goal in the pouring fucking rain
2:59
Speaker 3: that tucked itself into the corner of the upright.
3:03
Speaker 1: I am sick to my stomach as we do this show.
3:06
Speaker 1: We are seeing this live. I am so disgusted right now,
3:12
Speaker 1: I can't I can barely breathe while we're doing this.
3:16
Speaker 1: This is just fucking excruciating. Also excruciating. We had Houston
3:21
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. We had the Raiders plus
3:23
Speaker 1: eight and a half. We had the Rams minus two
3:26
Speaker 1: and a half. That was easy. Obviously, We've got Buffalo
3:29
Speaker 1: plus three and a half and then tonight we've got
3:32
Speaker 1: the Chargers plus three and a half on Sunday Night Football,
3:37
Speaker 1: Simon Sunday morning, we had a lot of switching. You
3:39
Speaker 1: were feeling really really good about the Rams, less good
3:42
Speaker 1: about the Giants, whose number had moved against us during
3:46
Speaker 1: the week, So we made the switch. Ended up switching
3:48
Speaker 1: out a win for a win. We also took out
3:50
Speaker 1: the Bears and put in the Bills. That's looking a
3:53
Speaker 1: little bit scarier than I would like because the Bills
3:56
Speaker 1: have freaking dominated this game. We can talk about this
3:59
Speaker 1: for a minute. Give me your take on like we
4:01
Speaker 1: didn't have to take out the Giants. It's sort of
4:04
Speaker 1: like we ended up taking out the Giants and taking
4:07
Speaker 1: out the Bears, And give me your take on the
4:10
Speaker 1: Rams and why all of a sudden, like the Giants
4:13
Speaker 1: last week were one of your biggest bets of the week.
4:15
Speaker 1: I loved them all week. I never wavered. I didn't
4:18
Speaker 1: even bet the four and a half because I felt
4:19
Speaker 1: so good about the three and a half, So I
4:21
Speaker 1: was a little surprised this morning we were grappling with that.
4:26
Speaker 2: Don't do that next time. I bet the four and
4:28
Speaker 2: a half. If you feel really good about the three
4:30
Speaker 2: and a half. Chaff that's a mistake by you, But
4:32
Speaker 2: uh no, I think there was a four and a half.
4:34
Speaker 2: We didn't get the four and a half in the contest.
4:36
Speaker 2: That's why we said, all right, we'll take a different
4:38
Speaker 2: game because we were getting a three and a half.
4:39
Speaker 2: So it's like, why do you want to take Why
4:41
Speaker 2: would we take a bad number when there's a better
4:43
Speaker 2: number out there in real life? I know it didn't matter,
4:49
Speaker 2: but usually it does when a number of moves like that,
4:51
Speaker 2: like from three and a half to four and a half,
4:53
Speaker 2: those are two very key numbers to move across. So, yeah,
4:58
Speaker 2: unfortunately didn't work out it. Yeah, it was just it
5:02
Speaker 2: was a back and forth morning, like I love Pittsburgh.
5:04
Speaker 2: You didn't like Pittsburgh. You liked the Bills. I liked
5:07
Speaker 2: the Eagles, you liked you had another game you nailed
5:11
Speaker 2: where I was on the other side of it. That's
5:15
Speaker 2: gonna happen, Like we're gonna be on different sides. I
5:18
Speaker 2: was like, I'll let Chad drive the car here, and
5:20
Speaker 2: it's not looking great right now, But at the same time,
5:23
Speaker 2: it's like, what I've done that much better? I don't know,
5:27
Speaker 2: like the Steelers one was tough again where it's like
5:30
Speaker 2: I had a ton of money on the plus one
5:32
Speaker 2: ton of money in the minus one ton ton of
5:34
Speaker 2: money in the two, and I think it was two
5:37
Speaker 2: and a half in the contest, and it's like, again
5:39
Speaker 2: another key number. Probably should have fought harder for it,
5:42
Speaker 2: but you know, like you said, you like the other side,
5:46
Speaker 2: and it's like, am I gonna fight you on it? No?
5:49
Speaker 2: I just moved it along to the Rams game, which
5:51
Speaker 2: was a game that I stole the pick from someone else,
5:54
Speaker 2: someone that's way better than me, put a ton of
5:57
Speaker 2: money on it. So I joined them and put a
5:59
Speaker 2: lot of money on it, and I did a simple
6:01
Speaker 2: trick off, just hit Chad with an Evan stat and
6:04
Speaker 2: just kept them moving. I just said, here's Evans stat.
6:06
Speaker 2: This is why we're doing it. Because I didn't need to.
6:08
Speaker 2: I didn't want to go for a thirty minute story
6:09
Speaker 2: with Chad. I just wanted to get the RAMS pick
6:11
Speaker 2: in there. And you put it in. Literally took the bait.
6:14
Speaker 2: You took the Evan bait and let me put it
6:16
Speaker 2: in and easiest bet will make me made today, right,
6:19
Speaker 2: Like never never had doubt on the RAMS one. So yeah,
6:24
Speaker 2: terrible read by me on the taking the Giants out.
6:28
Speaker 1: Well, hold on with Seck. Hold on, Let's talk about
6:30
Speaker 1: the rams for a second, because I don't remember. I
6:32
Speaker 1: don't remember. We'll go through the games here. I don't
6:35
Speaker 1: remember the evanstat being the factor. I remember we were
6:38
Speaker 1: taking the Giants out. You loved the rams. I was like, really,
6:42
Speaker 1: we haven't even talked about the rams all week, And
6:45
Speaker 1: like you said, you had someone that you trusted who
6:48
Speaker 1: was heavy on the rams and it felt really chalky.
6:50
Speaker 1: But then I pressed you a little bit more and
6:52
Speaker 1: you did give me something that I thought was really interesting,
6:55
Speaker 1: and you followed it up, or you would, you would,
6:58
Speaker 1: you would sort of preface this. Unconvinced me earlier in
7:02
Speaker 1: the day, which was Kyrin Williams returning, playing against terrible
7:08
Speaker 1: rush defense. You kicked Kyrion Williams as an anytime touchdown
7:12
Speaker 1: on convinced me through two and a half quarters. The
7:15
Speaker 1: guy had thirteen carriages for one hundred and twenty five
7:17
Speaker 1: yards plus fifty six years receiving in a touchdown. Yeah,
7:20
Speaker 1: so this game was never like, this was never a
7:24
Speaker 1: sweat No, it's just so great.
7:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, just classic. I talked about with you a little bit.
7:31
Speaker 2: Just mcveigh's run scheme for some reason, matches up really
7:34
Speaker 2: well against Arizona. And I believe Devinstadt was there. They
7:38
Speaker 2: were eleven and one coming to this game ats against Arizona,
7:42
Speaker 2: and yeah, wish they were all that easy. Like even
7:46
Speaker 2: when we had to kick, I think the kicker I
7:48
Speaker 2: missed a kick or something happened. Yeah, but then no, no,
7:50
Speaker 2: the Arizona got the two pointer and it's like, all right,
7:53
Speaker 2: here we go. The two and a half was gonna matter.
7:56
Speaker 2: It's a weird number, there we go. McVeigh is twelve
7:58
Speaker 2: two and one at versus Arizona his career, So yeah,
8:03
Speaker 2: just a great Stafford evan, and it shows that they
8:06
Speaker 2: for some reason, they match up well with them divisionally.
8:10
Speaker 2: Not just a small sample either. It's like there's been
8:13
Speaker 2: coaching changes, regime changes, and it doesn't matter. For some
8:16
Speaker 2: reason that run blocking scheme that McVeigh does. Arizona just
8:21
Speaker 2: doesn't have the dogs on defense to stop it. So
8:24
Speaker 2: I talk to you about it. If you can run
8:25
Speaker 2: the ball and mcveigh's offense, it's all so much easier
8:29
Speaker 2: for Stafford, Like if you can start with the run,
8:31
Speaker 2: and that means they's gonna be play action, which means
8:33
Speaker 2: the linebackers are gonna step up, which opens up the
8:36
Speaker 2: middle of the field. You're dead. That's that's where Stafford thrives.
8:39
Speaker 2: So yeah, if that's our only win of the weekend,
8:42
Speaker 2: at least it was a.
8:43
Speaker 1: Blowout Houston and Jacksonville, jack we had Houston one and
8:47
Speaker 1: a half. This was a game that every single person
8:51
Speaker 1: in the Action Network universe loved, like all weekend, like
8:56
Speaker 1: the breas, We're coming in Houston plus one and a half.
8:59
Speaker 1: You loved him, Raybaun loved him in the Sunday six pack.
9:03
Speaker 1: It was his number one pick and the Sunday six.
9:05
Speaker 2: Pack U didn't even know that stole from him.
9:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, and uh and like, look, there are times where CJ.
9:11
Speaker 1: Stroud is just magical and it's it's kind of amazing.
9:16
Speaker 1: There's a difference between great quarterbacks who play with great
9:20
Speaker 1: players and elite quarterbacks who then turn everyone else around
9:25
Speaker 1: them into great players. Where he is doing with Nico Collins,
9:28
Speaker 1: what he is doing with tanked out. Even Devin Singletary
9:32
Speaker 1: like is a better running back when CJ. Stroud ye
9:35
Speaker 1: is the quarterback. But the truth is, if the Texans
9:39
Speaker 1: had covered in that game, it would have been the
9:42
Speaker 1: luckiest the back doors, like we didn't We didn't really
9:45
Speaker 1: earn the win there. If we had won it, we
9:47
Speaker 1: earned the loss for sure.
9:50
Speaker 2: I watched that I that was center TV for me.
9:53
Speaker 2: That was one of my bigger bets. Watched every minute
9:55
Speaker 2: of it. The refs, the the refs won that game
9:59
Speaker 2: for the Jaguars. The Jaguars on multiple third downs should
10:03
Speaker 2: have been off the field that they got first downs
10:06
Speaker 2: on that turn into seven so instead of getting threes,
10:09
Speaker 2: they got sevens which completely changed that game. And there
10:13
Speaker 2: was just a bunch of little tiki tech calls they
10:15
Speaker 2: made that were just egregious. And you know, when they
10:18
Speaker 2: can't find the penalty on TV, it's just a bad look.
10:21
Speaker 2: And then when it happens multiple times and it's on
10:23
Speaker 2: third downs, like it's big key third downs. They kept
10:26
Speaker 2: giving the Jacksonville the first downs. But yeah, CJ just
10:30
Speaker 2: never gives up. That's why we love them, and it's
10:32
Speaker 2: fun to bet on them. It's like you're never really
10:34
Speaker 2: out of it and they're in it. And the kicker
10:37
Speaker 2: missed two kicks. It's a guy they had to bring
10:39
Speaker 2: in because they're starting kickers hurt and you have a
10:41
Speaker 2: backup kicker missing two kicks, you lose by three. That's
10:44
Speaker 2: just the way it goes. So tough, tough loss, especially
10:48
Speaker 2: if you're a Houston backer. You know that would have
10:52
Speaker 2: changed everything, right, that would have been their driver's seat
10:56
Speaker 2: of the division. That had been just it's what everything like,
11:00
Speaker 2: you're you're you're like we say all the time, you're
11:02
Speaker 2: a year earlier right now, Houston, Like this shouldn't be
11:04
Speaker 2: happening for you right now. CJ is just Chad talked
11:06
Speaker 2: about it. It's just so he's so different that they're a
11:09
Speaker 2: year or two early in the spot and it just
11:13
Speaker 2: wasn't there. Like the refs made it tough for him.
11:16
Speaker 2: They did have the opportunities, they didn't capital end's opportunities.
11:19
Speaker 2: And yeah, it's a tough no cover just because it
11:22
Speaker 2: feels like it was there. But again, it's just these
11:26
Speaker 2: damn refs. Man, I can't take it. Like I watched
11:28
Speaker 2: that game. I had the volume on it too, and
11:30
Speaker 2: it's just if you make these big calls on third
11:33
Speaker 2: downs and he turned threes into sevens, it's so hard
11:36
Speaker 2: to win those games. And you know you can say
11:39
Speaker 2: cjd have the best game. I agree with that, but
11:42
Speaker 2: still he put them in a position to win and
11:44
Speaker 2: the guy that hit the kicks and that's that's just
11:45
Speaker 2: how it goes. So it's tough you lose those kind
11:47
Speaker 2: of games, especially for us. We needed that bad in
11:50
Speaker 2: the contest, and it's just didn't The coin flip didn't
11:52
Speaker 2: go our way.
11:53
Speaker 1: I do wonder, like Ben Slowick, who's the offensive Bobby Slowak,
11:58
Speaker 1: I mean, who's the offensive coordinator for the Texans. They
12:04
Speaker 1: had third and one at midfield late in the game,
12:08
Speaker 1: fourth and one at midfield, they were down by ten.
12:10
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, on both.
12:12
Speaker 1: Plays they went they went deep, like they didn't even
12:16
Speaker 1: they didn't think of Like that's how much Bobby Slowly
12:20
Speaker 1: believes in the magic of CJ. Stroud. Yeah, he's got
12:23
Speaker 1: to get one yard to get his team within a
12:26
Speaker 1: one score game, and he's going deep both times from midfield.
12:30
Speaker 2: I understood the first one. The second one I did
12:31
Speaker 2: not understand, because you already know you're going for a
12:33
Speaker 2: fourth down, so I got it. It's like, surprise him
12:35
Speaker 2: on third down here, But like you said, the fourth
12:38
Speaker 2: down one just didn't make sense. It's like, dude, pick
12:40
Speaker 2: up the first then you could take four shots downfield
12:42
Speaker 2: if you want. But yeah, yeah, that was a bizarre
12:45
Speaker 2: play call.
12:46
Speaker 1: And even when uh CJ. Stradd was sacked twice on
12:50
Speaker 1: that final drive, he still got him, you know, within
12:55
Speaker 1: five yards of having a legit shot at the field goal.
12:59
Speaker 2: He's once in every year guy. And the best part
13:02
Speaker 2: of it is they're going back and forth between him
13:04
Speaker 2: and Bryce Young and it is like, I can't believe
13:08
Speaker 2: I lost six figures on that. This this in the draft,
13:11
Speaker 2: Like I'll never get away to the fact that I
13:13
Speaker 2: nailed it. CJ. Ship was the number one pick. He
13:15
Speaker 2: was the guy. Everyone knew it. The Panthers knew it,
13:19
Speaker 2: and they took Bryce Young. I think what they had
13:21
Speaker 2: one win. I mean, Bears fans got to be elated.
13:23
Speaker 2: Could you imagine if you had their pick and they
13:26
Speaker 2: had taken CJ. You wouldn't even be talking. So pretty incredible.
13:30
Speaker 2: How all the things that are going to be affected
13:32
Speaker 2: the NFL going for the next ten years from this
13:34
Speaker 2: one draft. CJ just is every week you say what
13:38
Speaker 2: we say it on you, budd, He's the real deal.
13:40
Speaker 1: Well, meanwhile, you know who else is the real deal?
13:44
Speaker 1: Talking touchdown? Tommy Davida, the guy just wins. He just
13:51
Speaker 1: he just all right, let's talk a little bit about
13:58
Speaker 1: the Raiders and the Chiefs. Dude, I thought we had
14:02
Speaker 1: this one.
14:03
Speaker 2: I really yeah.
14:04
Speaker 1: Early in the game, Aiden O'Connell was slaying it in
14:07
Speaker 1: the first half, unreal, thirteen of sixteen for one hundred
14:11
Speaker 1: and thirty eight yards.
14:12
Speaker 2: He was he was like eleven of eleven or eleven
14:15
Speaker 2: of twelve, just was not missing.
14:17
Speaker 1: Every time he dropped back. He looked like he was
14:19
Speaker 1: so cool, so confident, so comfortable nailing third out conversions
14:24
Speaker 1: like balls he throws. The Chiefs could not do anything right.
14:30
Speaker 1: Then they scored on three straight drives to in the
14:33
Speaker 1: first half and the first one to start the third quarter,
14:36
Speaker 1: and they gave up three points after those first two
14:39
Speaker 1: scoring drives, like that was it. The rest of the game.
14:42
Speaker 1: They dominated that game.
14:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, it sucks. The game I had avoided all week,
14:47
Speaker 2: had no money on it, and I kind of was
14:50
Speaker 2: on it, like I liked the Raiders. I was just like,
14:52
Speaker 2: there's something funky about this number. And we talked this morning,
14:56
Speaker 2: like I just felt I agreed with you. It's just like,
14:58
Speaker 2: you know what big number. The Chiefs haven't showed it
15:02
Speaker 2: and we got burned. It's like we we should have
15:05
Speaker 2: jumped off the train. Last week was the week to
15:08
Speaker 2: get off. They should have won last week, Like they
15:11
Speaker 2: kind of turned things around, and yeah, O'Connell turned back
15:17
Speaker 2: into a pumpkin or whatever, like I don't know, like
15:20
Speaker 2: I don't want to put it on him because he
15:22
Speaker 2: really wasn't that terrible, But you're right, it's like he
15:25
Speaker 2: couldn't miss and all of a sudden he couldn't connect,
15:27
Speaker 2: Like he just just totally totally flipped on us in
15:30
Speaker 2: the second half. They made adjustments whatever it was, they
15:32
Speaker 2: made him uncomfortable. Stinks too. When we take a big
15:36
Speaker 2: spread like that, you're always in it. So I had
15:38
Speaker 2: to watch from start to finish because you're always in
15:40
Speaker 2: it and it's like, oh, the math works out here.
15:43
Speaker 2: They're only down fourteen. If he can get it here
15:45
Speaker 2: on fourth and twenty one, we could get a touchdown.
15:48
Speaker 2: Me and Chat can get back in this. But yeah,
15:51
Speaker 2: it sucks, like this is this is life is a better.
15:53
Speaker 2: We we take divisional dogs and long term it's gonna
15:58
Speaker 2: be a winner. But that's one of those games you
16:00
Speaker 2: just got burned, like you're up, like you said, you're
16:02
Speaker 2: up fourteen to nothing on an eight and a half
16:05
Speaker 2: or nine and a half. Dog, I forget what number we got.
16:07
Speaker 2: You're feeling good, like you're feeling like we're gonna get home.
16:11
Speaker 2: But you said it perfectly like they put up twenty one.
16:15
Speaker 2: Mahomes does, Mahome, Well, Mahomes does, puts up twenty one
16:17
Speaker 2: because you left to open, left them time and a
16:20
Speaker 2: chance to have some life in that first half, and
16:23
Speaker 2: we were dead. Like it's just it's what makes them
16:26
Speaker 2: so great. And when it's all clicking for Mahomes and
16:29
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, they're just I mean, there are two time
16:32
Speaker 2: Super Bowl champions for a reason. There's just an incredible team.
16:34
Speaker 2: So we got our field goal chat from the Bills,
16:37
Speaker 2: so we're not.
16:38
Speaker 1: Just watched the Bills got the field goal. So really
16:42
Speaker 1: essentially we're going to win this game because the you're right,
16:46
Speaker 1: we got the hook if they score a touchdown, Yeah,
16:49
Speaker 1: we got thirty seven thirty four, so we're gonna walk
16:53
Speaker 1: away winners.
16:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, nailed it.
16:58
Speaker 1: It's exactly what I think thought what happened signed the exactly.
17:02
Speaker 1: Here's one more thing I'll say, Like you talk about
17:05
Speaker 1: better like you were up fourteen nothing and you're like, oh,
17:08
Speaker 1: we got a good shot here. You know what I
17:09
Speaker 1: was doing in my head all right Over the rest
17:12
Speaker 1: of the game, the Chiefs have to they have to
17:15
Speaker 1: outscore the Raiders by four touchdowns and that's they want.
17:20
Speaker 1: The rest of the game. They won thirty one to three.
17:23
Speaker 2: Yeah. Terrible, terrible, It was terrible. It was terrible.
17:27
Speaker 1: Here's a cool staff from Evan. I don't want to miss.
17:29
Speaker 1: By the way, when it comes to teams like the
17:30
Speaker 1: Giants and the Bengals and the Steelers, totals of thirty
17:35
Speaker 1: seven or less are now twenty two, four and one
17:37
Speaker 1: to the under. Since twenty twenty oh thirty eight or
17:42
Speaker 1: less thirty two and eleven to the under. Also, Matt
17:45
Speaker 1: Mitchell just reminded me that a that a field goal
17:50
Speaker 1: from the Eagles and then a Philly touchdown is still
17:54
Speaker 1: in play, so we are not out of the woods.
17:58
Speaker 2: No, which I didn't do that math like damn.
18:00
Speaker 1: I didn't do it either. I was just thinking they'll
18:02
Speaker 1: go because I was just thinking, of course, they're gonna
18:04
Speaker 1: go down and score a touchdown. Why would the Eagles
18:08
Speaker 1: not go down and score a touchdown in a game?
18:10
Speaker 1: By the way, let me point something out in a
18:12
Speaker 1: game right now, do you know how many plays the
18:17
Speaker 1: Eagles have had versus the versus the Bills. Going into
18:24
Speaker 1: the Eagles had about fifty plays. The Bills at the
18:28
Speaker 1: end of the game had eighty plays. Eighty freaking place right.
18:33
Speaker 2: Now, a big play offense.
18:35
Speaker 1: Baby, It's unreal right now, ninety two plays for the Bills,
18:41
Speaker 1: fifty seven plays for the Eagles. It is five hundred
18:45
Speaker 1: yards for the Bills, three hundred and twelve yards for
18:49
Speaker 1: the Eagles. But Jalen Hurts had one period of the
18:54
Speaker 1: game where he threw three touchdown passes out of four
18:58
Speaker 1: straight passes.
19:00
Speaker 2: The Belichick defense. I talked to you anizing about this, Chad,
19:04
Speaker 2: and you have to stop caring about yards. They're irrelevant
19:06
Speaker 2: to this. This the way the league is. Teams give
19:09
Speaker 2: up the yards. It's just the way it is. They'll
19:10
Speaker 2: let you drive down the field, eat all the clock
19:13
Speaker 2: you want. If you kick three, you'll lose. It's just
19:17
Speaker 2: the way football is now. So I agree with you.
19:20
Speaker 2: I feels like they've been out played in ways, but
19:23
Speaker 2: this is I mean, can we say now the Eagles
19:26
Speaker 2: are nine to one after ten weeks. Isn't this not
19:28
Speaker 2: the style that they play? It's like they kind of
19:32
Speaker 2: you know, they lay there, they play possum, they look terrible,
19:36
Speaker 2: and then when they turn it on, it's like, oh
19:37
Speaker 2: they have AJ Green, Oh they have Devonte Smith, Oh
19:40
Speaker 2: they have all these guys like Smith is he's a
19:44
Speaker 2: number one on a lot of other teams. Like the
19:46
Speaker 2: fact they have him and Aj it gets them out
19:48
Speaker 2: of a lot of trouble. Where I agree, Like, I
19:49
Speaker 2: think the Eagles offense looks sloppy and they look dumb.
19:53
Speaker 2: Like the guy leoc I don't know, you know what
20:00
Speaker 2: he thinks and does on a weekly basis with his team,
20:03
Speaker 2: but he doesn't really change anything offensively, like our offense
20:06
Speaker 2: we run is basically the same thing we ran last year.
20:09
Speaker 2: Like he didn't really bring in his own touch. And
20:11
Speaker 2: that sounds all fun and good, but I think we've
20:14
Speaker 2: seen it before where it's like some of these play calling,
20:16
Speaker 2: some of the players that run, like you just said,
20:18
Speaker 2: they're not doing that much today and when they do
20:21
Speaker 2: do well, it's on a big play. So I'm with you,
20:25
Speaker 2: Like the Eagles, if people started power rating the forty
20:28
Speaker 2: nine ers ahead the Eagles now at this point, I
20:31
Speaker 2: honestly couldn't knock it. I really couldn't just because I
20:34
Speaker 2: think the forty ninits have been more consistent when they're
20:37
Speaker 2: not hurt, like when they don't you know, Perty wasn't
20:40
Speaker 2: banged up, and they have all their guys on offense.
20:42
Speaker 2: I totally get if people have the fortniteds power right
20:44
Speaker 2: right now above the Eagles. But this game is just
20:47
Speaker 2: the antithesis of this Eagles team, where it's just like
20:51
Speaker 2: you can't kill them, Like this year, you can be
20:54
Speaker 2: up double digits. They're just gonna hang in there and
20:56
Speaker 2: try to out last year and eventually have some of
20:58
Speaker 2: their superstars make plays. So the Eagles are just a
21:01
Speaker 2: very complete team. I think anyone that's bet against them
21:04
Speaker 2: or cheered for their team against them this year is
21:07
Speaker 2: just seeing it where it's just like they got the guys.
21:09
Speaker 2: It just seems like the only thing lacking for the
21:11
Speaker 2: Eagles right now is coaching.
21:12
Speaker 1: The field goal target line in this game is set
21:14
Speaker 1: at the forty two and Jalen Hurts just crossed it.
21:18
Speaker 1: I'm just saying that right now. Reminder, you can catch
21:21
Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those
21:24
Speaker 1: enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like
21:26
Speaker 1: and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. All right,
21:30
Speaker 1: our other picks this week, we had at Houston plus
21:33
Speaker 1: one and a half. That was our foxhol Simon says
21:36
Speaker 1: was Giants plus three and a half. Nice work, Simon,
21:40
Speaker 1: executive decision, Las Vegas plus nine and a half. That
21:44
Speaker 1: one hurt, big balls. Cleveland plus two and a half.
21:48
Speaker 1: This was an interesting game. I never bet this game.
21:51
Speaker 1: As the week went on, I started feeling less and
21:54
Speaker 1: less confident about Cleveland, and the line had moved heavy
21:58
Speaker 1: in their direction.
22:00
Speaker 2: That's the only reason I didn't pitch it to you, because
22:02
Speaker 2: the line moved by Yeah, I liked it. I bet it,
22:04
Speaker 2: but yeah, line moved and there was just no value.
22:07
Speaker 1: I skipped it. And then Survivor. We had the Titans
22:10
Speaker 1: and the round robin. I could only remember four of
22:13
Speaker 1: the teams Houston, Cleveland, Chargers, Washington. I forgot who the
22:17
Speaker 1: fifth was. Does anybody remember.
22:22
Speaker 3: Round robin was Houston, Cleveland, Chargers, Washington, New York Giants.
22:27
Speaker 1: New York Giants. So we got two chances? Still, we
22:31
Speaker 1: got we got one more chance to go to get
22:33
Speaker 1: to one more chance, go Chargers. All right, Uh, we
22:38
Speaker 1: got a lean for tonight. We need the Chargers for
22:40
Speaker 1: our lungs. It's looking like so you know, we've been
22:44
Speaker 1: on them all week. We liked them last week at
22:45
Speaker 1: four and a half, the line has moved down to three,
22:49
Speaker 1: and you know, I think it's the reasons we've talked
22:54
Speaker 1: about the Chargers as dogs. The Chargers were so dreadful
22:59
Speaker 1: last week but got pretty unlucky. The Chargers have a
23:03
Speaker 1: lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball.
23:06
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert has been playing amazingly well. We don't like
23:09
Speaker 1: the Ravens when they are favorites.
23:14
Speaker 2: And this is it their Chargers season. If they lose this,
23:17
Speaker 2: it is officially over. And that's honestly why I was
23:20
Speaker 2: cool with backing it. It's like we're getting them as
23:21
Speaker 2: a dog in that kind of spot where you know,
23:26
Speaker 2: we will know pretty quick if this team's quit on
23:28
Speaker 2: their head coach, especially defensively, if they just get if
23:30
Speaker 2: they give up tons of yards, they do nothing to
23:32
Speaker 2: stop Lamar. They've totally given up on this head coach.
23:36
Speaker 2: But the guy, for me, Herbert, I can't quit him
23:41
Speaker 2: like in these kind of spots. I think we talked
23:43
Speaker 2: on the show a little bit right. It's his record
23:46
Speaker 2: as a dog since last year he's five and one
23:48
Speaker 2: as a three point dog or more so, we joke
23:52
Speaker 2: all the time we fade Herbert as a favorite and
23:54
Speaker 2: we like to back him as a dog, and we
23:57
Speaker 2: finally get a spot to back them. The value is
23:59
Speaker 2: dropped that low in her and this Chargers team. So crazy,
24:03
Speaker 2: how much line movement's happened despite all the money, all
24:06
Speaker 2: the tickets are bet on this sh Ravens team. Like
24:08
Speaker 2: Chad said, this was four and a half. Now it's
24:10
Speaker 2: all the way down to three. Pretty crazy the movement
24:14
Speaker 2: on this number, just because I could see them still
24:16
Speaker 2: getting a ton of money in the Ravens even fills
24:18
Speaker 2: minus three and a half. So clearly the professionals have
24:21
Speaker 2: come in and bet this one down. Again, not one
24:23
Speaker 2: of my biggest bets of the week, but I like
24:25
Speaker 2: it well. Me and Chad talked about today. It was
24:27
Speaker 2: three and a half. It's like, all right, we'll take
24:29
Speaker 2: the value on that. That's a good number.
24:30
Speaker 1: Eagle's still driving Matt Mitchell freaking out inside his head
24:36
Speaker 1: like you can't believe DeAndre Swift down to what looks
24:41
Speaker 1: like the twelve yard line on a long run. Monday
24:46
Speaker 1: Night Football Bears plus three and a half. That was
24:49
Speaker 1: the game we took out today. We still like it.
24:52
Speaker 1: I mean it's yeah, you know it's going to be
24:54
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Speaker 2: All right.
27:04
Speaker 1: One of the notes I made this week Simon, Well.
27:06
Speaker 2: Real quick, I'm not going to cut you off, but
27:08
Speaker 2: the game's over, Chad. Are you aware?
27:10
Speaker 1: No what happened? Did we win or lose?
27:13
Speaker 2: We won and the Eagles won. My life is perfect
27:15
Speaker 2: right now. Ego Bill's cover, Bill's.
27:20
Speaker 1: Cover, Yeah, Chad new dude, dude, We're all winners today.
27:30
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I was. I was like amazed. I
27:34
Speaker 1: got to say as I was reading to the two reads,
27:37
Speaker 1: this is the most excruciating podcast we've ever done. Like
27:42
Speaker 1: you to talk about all these games when all I
27:44
Speaker 1: want to do is watch and talk about this game
27:46
Speaker 1: number one, number two. I'm only to bet we have
27:49
Speaker 1: our lowest audience ever because everyone was watching the Eagles.
27:53
Speaker 1: Bill's Game number three. I'm I am supremely concerned about
27:58
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell right now because this is a devastating loss
28:01
Speaker 1: to the season for the Bills. And I say that
28:03
Speaker 1: with all sincerity. I feel terrible for the guy, but fuck,
28:08
Speaker 1: it feels good to cover. And this is a great
28:12
Speaker 1: segue into the week thirteen games because the biggest game
28:19
Speaker 1: of the week Niners visiting the Eagles, right before we
28:24
Speaker 1: came on the air, the number of move from Eagles
28:27
Speaker 1: plus two and a half to Eagles minus two and
28:29
Speaker 1: a half to Eagles minus one. Can someone tell me
28:32
Speaker 1: right now while while they have it up, or am
28:35
Speaker 1: I going to have to check myself? What is the
28:37
Speaker 1: current spread for that game?
28:40
Speaker 2: It was?
28:41
Speaker 1: It's still minus one? All right, let's talk about that
28:44
Speaker 1: game right now because we have what do we think?
28:49
Speaker 1: Do we want San Francisco? Do we want the Eagles?
28:53
Speaker 1: San Francisco is a It's basically a pick. Do we
28:56
Speaker 1: want the one going either way?
28:59
Speaker 2: More respect for this Eagles team. This Eagles team when
29:03
Speaker 2: trailing by ten or points or more this season are
29:06
Speaker 2: four and oh straight up, let me read that one
29:10
Speaker 2: more time. This Eagles team when trailing by ten points
29:13
Speaker 2: or more are four and oh straight up. Man, They're
29:15
Speaker 2: just They're just They're a team that played in the
29:19
Speaker 2: super Bowl last year. It's like the craziest thing as
29:21
Speaker 2: an Eagles fan. I just I'm so used to rooting
29:24
Speaker 2: for teams at disappoint and this team tries so hard
29:27
Speaker 2: every week to disappoint. They just can't stop winning. It's
29:30
Speaker 2: it's incredible. So what do you want me to do? Chad,
29:33
Speaker 2: we're getting the Eagles team that can't stop winning at home.
29:36
Speaker 2: Hurts as unbelievably statistically at home straight up as a winner.
29:39
Speaker 2: I think he's lost what is it happened one game
29:42
Speaker 2: in the past two seasons combined, and that was to
29:44
Speaker 2: Washington at home, when Washington was like a ten point underdog.
29:48
Speaker 2: It's just it's Hurts at home and we're catching a
29:51
Speaker 2: point I don't know, man, like the professional on me says,
29:56
Speaker 2: you want to you want to slam the forty nine
29:57
Speaker 2: ers here. I just talked about they look like they're
30:00
Speaker 2: the better team right now. Then the better in me,
30:03
Speaker 2: the guy loves trends, is like, you're catching Hurts as
30:07
Speaker 2: a one point favorite at home and he's their guy.
30:10
Speaker 2: And the guy's only lost one game in the last
30:12
Speaker 2: two years. So this number has moved, Chad. You said
30:16
Speaker 2: it was two during the game. It moved down to one. Yeah,
30:20
Speaker 2: So I think technically the value would be on the
30:24
Speaker 2: Eagles if it's two two and a half value is
30:27
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. But at this number, thankfully it's on
30:29
Speaker 2: the Eagles. So here we go from Evan Eagles fourteen
30:32
Speaker 2: to one straight up since the start of last season,
30:35
Speaker 2: at home with Hurts as a starter, so pretty incredible.
30:39
Speaker 1: I feel like I want to back the Niners in
30:40
Speaker 1: this game. I think I want to wait until this
30:43
Speaker 1: number goes back up, which I think it will. I
30:46
Speaker 1: think the public is going to come in on the
30:48
Speaker 1: Eagles after another win. They get by by the skin
30:51
Speaker 1: of their teeth every game, and I think that's incredible.
30:54
Speaker 1: And we've talked about it and we bet on them
30:57
Speaker 1: so many times this season, backing them.
30:59
Speaker 2: Because Chad, what.
31:03
Speaker 1: Sam Frus goes now minus one?
31:06
Speaker 2: I got to make sure this is the right number. Okay, No,
31:09
Speaker 2: never mind, I thought it. I thought it had moved.
31:11
Speaker 2: Luckily it hasn't.
31:12
Speaker 1: Well, there is, by the way, there is one book
31:14
Speaker 1: where San Francisco is now minus one. Evan is putting
31:17
Speaker 1: it in the chat.
31:18
Speaker 2: Yeah is that right? Yeah, that's okay. I did see that.
31:21
Speaker 2: It's the forty nine ers or minus one a fandel
31:23
Speaker 2: So the Proser with Chad.
31:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, uh I, Charlie, this is tough.
31:33
Speaker 2: Damn really yeah, I just saw that pop up. I
31:36
Speaker 2: thought that was just our app glitchen. But yeah, So
31:39
Speaker 2: the Proser with Chad, they agree they think the forty
31:42
Speaker 2: nine er should be favorite. That's wild.
31:45
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of Look, we can talk about
31:49
Speaker 1: the luck rankings the Eagles have been. This was the
31:52
Speaker 1: biggest luck rankings matchup of the week. Right. It's one
31:55
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I like the Bills so much
31:58
Speaker 1: this week. And we saw it again today. Like, first
32:01
Speaker 1: half of this game, Eagles drop a shirt, the Bills
32:04
Speaker 1: drop a shirt, touchdown pass, yeah, two consecutive false starts
32:08
Speaker 1: knocks him out of field goal range.
32:09
Speaker 2: I think they had a missfield goal too, right.
32:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then then they had a missfield goal like
32:17
Speaker 1: that that went wide. Right. The Eagles go down and score.
32:21
Speaker 1: Like every single time something bad happens to a team,
32:25
Speaker 1: the Eagles wisely take advantage of it. The Bills get
32:28
Speaker 1: a pick of Jalen Hurts, and on the very first
32:31
Speaker 1: play after the pick, they get a holding call and
32:34
Speaker 1: they're all of a sudden, they're backed up ten more yards,
32:36
Speaker 1: like yeah, every like, the Eagles have been so lucky,
32:40
Speaker 1: and they they're smart, they take advantage of the lock.
32:42
Speaker 1: But it makes it very scared to back them against
32:46
Speaker 1: a very well rounded team. And this week on the
32:49
Speaker 1: Favorites YouTube film Room, my guy that I'm going to
32:53
Speaker 1: profile is going to be Deebo Samuel because this team
32:56
Speaker 1: is so good. He's the key for this team, Like
32:59
Speaker 1: they are just different tea when he's coming out of
33:00
Speaker 1: the backfield and he's split on the edge or he's
33:03
Speaker 1: split wide, like he can do anything, and so more
33:06
Speaker 1: than McCaffrey, more than pretty, more than anybody, Like he's
33:09
Speaker 1: been the difference between when they were winning and losing.
33:13
Speaker 2: No McCaffrey's look at their numbers when McCaffrey since he's
33:17
Speaker 2: gotten there's yeah.
33:18
Speaker 1: But look at their numbers this season without Deebo Samuel.
33:23
Speaker 1: They were three, but they were three and fading, and
33:26
Speaker 1: they were tied pretty they were tied for the NFC West,
33:30
Speaker 1: and then Deebo Samuel comes back and they're dominating again.
33:33
Speaker 1: I agree, like McCaffrey's great, but Samuel is drawing a
33:37
Speaker 1: lot of attention that makes MCA he's really good.
33:39
Speaker 2: I mean, no one's doubting that. But I'd put him forth.
33:41
Speaker 2: I'd go Trent Williams McCaffrey party, and I'll put Debo
33:47
Speaker 2: there at number four for my guy Chad.
33:49
Speaker 1: Well, Listen, this is going to be a very interesting
33:51
Speaker 1: conversation on Tuesday when we talk about this.
33:53
Speaker 2: I know where you're going you six, son of a gun.
33:58
Speaker 1: I wrote one note during the afternoon games. Are we
34:01
Speaker 1: gonna have to bet the New York Jets and Tim
34:03
Speaker 1: Boyle at plus two and a half against the Atlanta Falcons?
34:07
Speaker 2: Of course?
34:08
Speaker 1: Is that what you were thinking? I was gonna go to.
34:11
Speaker 2: No, but I mean it's a bet we're gonna make
34:13
Speaker 2: you want to run through my ugly bet since we
34:15
Speaker 2: really get kicked off here. Yeah, do it all right,
34:17
Speaker 2: Commanders plus nine. I'm sorry people, me and chatter like
34:20
Speaker 2: there's a ninety nine percent chance we're gonna be on
34:22
Speaker 2: that Green Bay Packers at home against the Chiefs plus
34:25
Speaker 2: seven right now, already grabbing it, gotta do it. Patriots
34:30
Speaker 2: plus five and a half. Oh no, I know. I'm
34:32
Speaker 2: so sorry people. I said I wouldn't do it, but
34:35
Speaker 2: I got it. That's that's crazy, crazy high number for
34:39
Speaker 2: that Chargers team. And last one, super Chalky, just grabbing
34:45
Speaker 2: it right now before it disappears. Is that Detroit minus
34:47
Speaker 2: three minus three and a half if you can find it.
34:50
Speaker 2: I just think it's gonna go up, like who's betting
34:52
Speaker 2: the Saints? Nobody? So I'll bet this now and I'll
34:55
Speaker 2: come back on the other side when the Saints got
34:57
Speaker 2: to like six or seven. So those are the quick
35:00
Speaker 2: bets people.
35:01
Speaker 1: I'm surprised we didn't talk about Arizona Pittsburgh. That's such
35:03
Speaker 1: an interesting one to me.
35:06
Speaker 2: I think it goes up. I mean, you can grab
35:08
Speaker 2: the six six and a half now if you want,
35:10
Speaker 2: but I could see it getting the seven. I just
35:13
Speaker 2: Arizona could be ran on. Pittsburgh wints to run the ball.
35:15
Speaker 2: I mean, you saw their offense first time in what
35:18
Speaker 2: three years? Four years? Some crazy stat right, since they
35:21
Speaker 2: put up four undred yards they did in their first
35:23
Speaker 2: game without Canada. Pretty hilarious.
35:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, amazing. We're a little condensed today. I apologize to folks,
35:32
Speaker 1: but we want to be able to let people go
35:34
Speaker 1: watch the Sunday night game, and we want to be
35:36
Speaker 1: able to sweat the Sunday night game as well. So
35:41
Speaker 1: some of our early spots that we're going to have
35:43
Speaker 1: a very hearty debate. I'm curious to hear where we
35:46
Speaker 1: land on Tuesday with Philly and San Francisco. Also, we
35:50
Speaker 1: talked about the Jets plus two and a half against Atlanta.
35:53
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the fact that Jets got
35:55
Speaker 1: blown out. We're going to talk about a Desmond ritter
35:57
Speaker 1: against the Jets defense one to back the Jets. Simon
36:01
Speaker 1: also talked about Washington plus nine, the Packers plus seven
36:06
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs at home, and the Patriots plus five
36:10
Speaker 1: and a half, which I will want no part of
36:13
Speaker 1: because there's no reason to bet mac Jones as a
36:17
Speaker 1: reminder or Bailey's Happy. The Favorites podcast is presented by
36:22
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do
36:24
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