Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / More Trump Tariffs, McDonald's Strong Report
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- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
- 0:09Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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- 0:23Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the topic du jour, and
- 0:25Speaker 3: that's about Trump tariffs and how it actually could affect growth.
- 0:29Speaker 3: For example, we're looking at economists kind of reevaluating the
- 0:33Speaker 3: impact of policies on the US economy and then the sequencing, Right,
- 0:37Speaker 3: if you have tariffs now, but then you have tax
- 0:39Speaker 3: cuts later, what that winds up looking like then for growth?
- 0:41Speaker 3: And the current is Bloomberg's a global economy reporter and
- 0:45Speaker 3: he joins us now from DC. What's the scuttle butt
- 0:48Speaker 3: among economists when it comes to President Trump's tariffs policy.
- 0:53Speaker 1: I think moving faster and expected alex is one way
- 0:56Speaker 1: to think about it. I mean, to be clear, there
- 0:58Speaker 1: is no you know here that the President is either
- 1:01Speaker 1: imposing tariffs or that he believes in tariffs as a
- 1:04Speaker 1: tool of trade policy. But I think there is a
- 1:07Speaker 1: sense of a shock at the pace of the moves.
- 1:11Speaker 1: Remember a couple of things. His trade team isn't actually
- 1:13Speaker 1: a confirmed in office yet it converce actory Howard Lopnik
- 1:16Speaker 1: and Jameson Greers trade represent that of be formally appointed
- 1:19Speaker 1: to their roles there. There was an executive order on
- 1:22Speaker 1: day one of the organization setting out this the remit
- 1:25Speaker 1: for a study in the US trading policy with partners
- 1:27Speaker 1: around the world. But already we've had threats of tariffs
- 1:30Speaker 1: on Columbia, threats of tariff on Mexico and Kinada, actual
- 1:34Speaker 1: tariffs implemented on China ten percent across the board. Also
- 1:38Speaker 1: that's new territory, not just intermediate goods across the board.
- 1:40Speaker 1: And of course now we have the expected announcement of
- 1:44Speaker 1: tariffs and steel aluminium that the President took yesterday, and
- 1:48Speaker 1: the reciprocal tariff idea that he's also flooded, due for
- 1:51Speaker 1: detail again this week. So you know, it's easy to
- 1:54Speaker 1: say this isn't a shock. He spoke about it during
- 1:56Speaker 1: the campaign. But the breath and pace that I think
- 1:58Speaker 1: is catching people off guard.
- 2:00Speaker 4: So initially on Friday morning, when we got the report
- 2:02Speaker 4: from Reuters that Trump was considering reciprocal tariffs that day,
- 2:05Speaker 4: there wasn't really any indication of which country he was
- 2:08Speaker 4: referring to.
- 2:09Speaker 5: How are you all.
- 2:10Speaker 4: Thinking about this whole concept of reciprocal tariffs and what
- 2:13Speaker 4: the implications could be globally.
- 2:17Speaker 1: Well, reciprocal tariff idea is going to be a very
- 2:20Speaker 1: technical one. You know, we really need to see the
- 2:22Speaker 1: exact details of what the President is thinking about. But
- 2:25Speaker 1: the rough analysis from people following this trade expert is
- 2:29Speaker 1: essentially what President is saying is if a the US
- 2:33Speaker 1: puts the tariff on one country's goods of say two percent,
- 2:35Speaker 1: and that country puts a tariff on US goods of
- 2:37Speaker 1: say ten percent, the President wants to.
- 2:39Speaker 6: Level that up to level of playing field.
- 2:41Speaker 1: And I think is that this might be a replacement
- 2:44Speaker 1: to the universal tariff of ten percent that he spoke about.
- 2:47Speaker 1: So different different ideas there in the mix. But again
- 2:51Speaker 1: that's a technical one we're going to have to wait
- 2:53Speaker 1: and see in detail. Where it certainly adds to thee
- 2:55Speaker 1: of more tariffs coming.
- 2:57Speaker 3: So the idea that the tariffs center them cells are
- 2:59Speaker 3: knows surprise, But it's the speed at which President Trump
- 3:02Speaker 3: is mood but moving on tariffs that is a surprise,
- 3:05Speaker 3: which then raises the question of the quote unquote positive
- 3:07Speaker 3: parts of the administration like deregulation and lower corporate taxes
- 3:12Speaker 3: to then offset the hit we might take from tariffs.
- 3:16Speaker 3: What do you guys expect in terms of the speed there.
- 3:19Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to clear to President and his team
- 3:22Speaker 1: say that this trade policy, this hole is trade policy
- 3:25Speaker 1: will drive investment in the US, will bring manufacturing back home,
- 3:28Speaker 1: It will raise revenue for the government, and it will
- 3:32Speaker 1: balance trading books.
- 3:32Speaker 6: With the rest of the world.
- 3:33Speaker 1: Along with, as you say, this deregulation policy, and you know,
- 3:37Speaker 1: making it easier to build things, make it easier to
- 3:39Speaker 1: extract resources and energy from the ground, getting infrastructure projects moving,
- 3:44Speaker 1: and you know, it's kind of a pro business deregularty
- 3:47Speaker 1: attitude writ large. So there is a case that the
- 3:50Speaker 1: new administration is will at least animal spirits. Economists haven't
- 3:54Speaker 1: yet down graded their forecast, right anything like that. You
- 3:58Speaker 1: know that I'm f single out to you experts perform
- 4:00Speaker 1: once back in January. But you know, nonetheless, there's also
- 4:02Speaker 1: feeling that, wait a minute, right now, we seem.
- 4:05Speaker 6: To be at the very least pain stage of this.
- 4:08Speaker 1: We're seeing those spending cuts this federal level of staff
- 4:10Speaker 1: lost staff, job cuts at federal level, the terriffs. Of course,
- 4:15Speaker 1: the sweeteners if you have too wrong in the economy,
- 4:17Speaker 1: that's the deregulation. Just mentioned that the tax cuts that,
- 4:21Speaker 1: of course haven't yet been agreed by Congress. So, you know,
- 4:24Speaker 1: supporters saying, look, this is a big program here, ultimately
- 4:28Speaker 1: will lead to a stronger and faster going economy, but
- 4:31Speaker 1: a lot of skeptics are saying that there's potential for
- 4:33Speaker 1: significant disruption and.
- 4:34Speaker 6: Pain along the way.
- 4:36Speaker 1: Very early saying yet, but certainly plenty of skepticism, unspecoid
- 4:41Speaker 1: support on both sides of this.
- 4:42Speaker 4: So there's a lot of conversation about what tariffs can
- 4:44Speaker 4: mean for different countries across the globe. But if we
- 4:47Speaker 4: were to bring it back to the consumer, how exactly
- 4:50Speaker 4: would that impact the consumer. Would we see countries just
- 4:53Speaker 4: passing off tariff costs onto consumers? What does that look like?
- 4:58Speaker 6: Yeah, it depends on the level of the tier and
- 5:00Speaker 6: depends on the type of goods.
- 5:02Speaker 5: Right.
- 5:02Speaker 1: So, for example, the last trade war between President Trump's
- 5:05Speaker 1: administration in China was mostly intermediate goods that components and
- 5:08Speaker 1: materials that factories are buying off of China, you know,
- 5:12Speaker 1: ultimately didn't have that much of an impact on the
- 5:14Speaker 1: mainStreet inflation this time around the president that's put ten
- 5:17Speaker 1: percent tariffs and all the goods coming out of China
- 5:19Speaker 1: and coming into the US, so that's like consumer goods,
- 5:22Speaker 1: typical household baskets. Similarly, from Mexico, a big portion of
- 5:26Speaker 1: exports from Mexico to the US was on food, food
- 5:30Speaker 1: stuff like fruit and veg and an apparel. So if
- 5:33Speaker 1: you start putting tariffs on those kind of products, then
- 5:35Speaker 1: the question becomes who's going to absorb it. Is the
- 5:37Speaker 1: seller going to cut their prices and absorb that tariff
- 5:41Speaker 1: or will the buy Will the buyer absorbed the tariff
- 5:43Speaker 1: in the US, and or will it be passed along
- 5:45Speaker 1: to consumers? And that's where Commas saying, hang on, some
- 5:49Speaker 1: of this will surely have to plats on the consumers,
- 5:51Speaker 1: and that's why they say in the first round, effect
- 5:53Speaker 1: at least will be inflationary.
- 5:55Speaker 4: Well, and that's the interesting part.
- 5:56Speaker 3: I was talking about this a little earlier with Isabelle
- 5:58Speaker 3: and Nora about commodities, is but commodities are efficient markets,
- 6:01Speaker 3: so they'll just rerate, So the price of the commodity
- 6:03Speaker 3: will rebrate to account for the tax. In order to
- 6:06Speaker 3: have the consumer or the company, whomever's buying it want
- 6:09Speaker 3: to buy it. If I'm buying a coat, that's not
- 6:11Speaker 3: the same thing, Like that's not an efficient market. I'm
- 6:13Speaker 3: just not going to buy the coat. And so there's
- 6:16Speaker 3: different distinctions based on what's actually.
- 6:18Speaker 6: Being taxed, very different distinctions.
- 6:20Speaker 1: And you hear some FED officials make the point that
- 6:22Speaker 1: even if FED officials have different views, like some make
- 6:24Speaker 1: the point it's a one off, we kind of look
- 6:27Speaker 1: through that impact. Others saying, wait a minute, this could
- 6:29Speaker 1: be the kind of start of setting off a longer
- 6:32Speaker 1: term consumer inflation Expectations that University of Michigan surveyed the
- 6:35Speaker 1: end of last week show that consumers.
- 6:37Speaker 6: Are a bit worried about inflation now, especially due to tires.
- 6:40Speaker 6: So it's you know, it's not a very clear cut
- 6:42Speaker 6: impact on this and for either side of the argument.
- 6:45Speaker 1: But remember again there's also a bigger picture of view
- 6:48Speaker 1: that you have those people who argue this will drive
- 6:51Speaker 1: investment and employment, but there are also those who say
- 6:53Speaker 1: will hurt consumer confidence and business confidence because they don't
- 6:57Speaker 1: have certainty, don't know how to invest. So there'll be
- 6:59Speaker 1: a lot of confusion in the meantime on tell this
- 7:01Speaker 1: trade policy to settle down.
- 7:03Speaker 4: So how are other global leaders responding to this? I know,
- 7:06Speaker 4: when I was watching the Super Bowl last night, I
- 7:08Speaker 4: actually saw an ad for from Canada about tariffs, and
- 7:12Speaker 4: I missed that. Really it was super interesting a cowboy hating.
- 7:16Speaker 7: No it was not.
- 7:17Speaker 4: There was no stash flying around, there was no mustaches,
- 7:20Speaker 4: but it was a really interesting ad. And I'm just curious.
- 7:23Speaker 4: What are you all seeing in terms of the response
- 7:25Speaker 4: from other world leaders.
- 7:28Speaker 1: Well, you know, again early days you get different response
- 7:32Speaker 1: from different capitals. But broadly speaking, when it comes to
- 7:35Speaker 1: merchandise goods trade, a lot of the messaging has been
- 7:37Speaker 1: you know, what do you want us to buy?
- 7:38Speaker 6: We're willing to step up.
- 7:39Speaker 1: Mexico stepped up with putting troops in the border for
- 7:43Speaker 1: that Fentanel and immigration issue, as in Canada, but Canada
- 7:47Speaker 1: has also made clear that you know, they're in the
- 7:48Speaker 1: market to buy US goods. The European Union has said
- 7:52Speaker 1: that they're willing to step up and buy maybe more
- 7:54Speaker 1: US gas or other products you have. Japan here last
- 7:57Speaker 1: week prominent s Orshiba talking about one trillion worth an
- 8:00Speaker 1: investment in the US. And this goes around. If all
- 8:03Speaker 1: of these world leaders make the point. They're willing to
- 8:04Speaker 1: invest in buy goods, but they're also making it clear
- 8:07Speaker 1: that they will retaliate in kind as well if the
- 8:09Speaker 1: US pushes this faith policy too far. China has already
- 8:13Speaker 1: retaliate literally today, those tariffs from China have gone into
- 8:17Speaker 1: fact on agricultural goods, agricultural machinery coming out of the
- 8:20Speaker 1: US into into China. And of course I've got some
- 8:23Speaker 1: anti trust measures going on against some US companies as well.
- 8:26Speaker 1: You have a playbook ready to retaliate if they want to.
- 8:29Speaker 1: Canada head threatend to Italian as in Mexico. So you know,
- 8:32Speaker 1: there's a there's a kind of a play nice we'll
- 8:34Speaker 1: we'll come and see what can we do deal all this,
- 8:35Speaker 1: but if that does mark out, they're willing to respond
- 8:37Speaker 1: as well.
- 8:38Speaker 3: All right, and I really appreciate always the best and
- 8:40Speaker 3: the current Bloomberg Global Economy reporter joining us on Trump
- 8:43Speaker 3: tariffs and what that does to growth.
- 8:46Speaker 2: You were listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the
- 8:50Speaker 2: program live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car
- 8:53Speaker 2: Play and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
- 8:56Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
- 8:59Speaker 2: flagship New York station just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
- 9:04Speaker 3: All right, I wanted to get a broader take on
- 9:06Speaker 3: the Trump administration and some deeper changes at taking place nationally,
- 9:11Speaker 3: particularly when it comes to diversity, equity and inclusion. Mark Morioll,
- 9:15Speaker 3: CEO of a National Urban League, joins us now on
- 9:18Speaker 3: this and side note. Mark was mayor of New Orleans
- 9:20Speaker 3: from nineteen ninety four to two thousand and two. Mark,
- 9:23Speaker 3: did you watch the Super Bowl?
- 9:25Speaker 4: Were you there?
- 9:26Speaker 6: Hey?
- 9:26Speaker 7: I was there, and I was an Eagles fan because
- 9:30Speaker 7: I lived in Philadelphia during my days in college at
- 9:33Speaker 7: U Penn.
- 9:34Speaker 5: And I tell you what, I didn't expect that outcome.
- 9:38Speaker 7: I felt Philadelphia would win, but I thought it was
- 9:40Speaker 7: going to be a competitive game all the way down
- 9:42Speaker 7: to the end. It wasn't really a competitive game. The
- 9:45Speaker 7: Eagles really really dominate.
- 9:47Speaker 4: Yeah, they took it.
- 9:49Speaker 5: It was surprising.
- 9:51Speaker 3: It was from somebody who like literally just started to
- 9:52Speaker 3: understand football yesterday. I'm actually not kidding.
- 9:55Speaker 4: I was like, what is this Jeeves?
- 9:57Speaker 6: Huh?
- 9:57Speaker 3: What what is that team? Anyway, side, I'm glad you went.
- 10:01Speaker 3: I'm glad you got to see it. Either way, it
- 10:03Speaker 3: was always a fun experience.
- 10:04Speaker 4: To watch. Mark.
- 10:07Speaker 3: You are CEO of the National Urban League. It's the
- 10:09Speaker 3: largest historical civil rights and urban advocacy organization in the country.
- 10:15Speaker 3: What are you guys doing right now to combat sort
- 10:17Speaker 3: of anti DEI rhetoric and policy from DC.
- 10:22Speaker 7: So, we are working very hard to get institutions, leaders,
- 10:27Speaker 7: corporations to reaffirm their commitment. Jamie Diamond and JP Morgan
- 10:31Speaker 7: Chase have done so. Roger Bigodell in the National Football
- 10:34Speaker 7: League have done so. Companies like Delta and Target, and
- 10:38Speaker 7: there's an entire list. Those that have reaffirmed their commitment
- 10:42Speaker 7: may not have gotten as much media attention as those
- 10:45Speaker 7: that have walked away. I'm dismayed by those who say
- 10:49Speaker 7: they have walked away. What every company in America should
- 10:53Speaker 7: be doing is living up to the meaning of the
- 10:57Speaker 7: Civil Rights Act of nineteen sixty four prevents non discrimination,
- 11:03Speaker 7: or rather is a non discrimination law which prevents discrimination
- 11:07Speaker 7: based on race, creed.
- 11:08Speaker 5: Color, religion, and national origin.
- 11:10Speaker 7: Many of those who are promoting from behind the scenes
- 11:14Speaker 7: the antide and I movement are trying to roll back
- 11:17Speaker 7: progress this nation is made over the last seventy years. Women,
- 11:22Speaker 7: African Americans, latinos Asians, indigenous Americans, disabled Americans, LGBTQ Americans
- 11:29Speaker 7: have had a chance over the last seventy years to
- 11:32Speaker 7: participate in the mainstream of American life, in jobs and
- 11:37Speaker 7: business opportunities, around corporate board tables, in elected office. This
- 11:42Speaker 7: is a full scale attack on all of that progress
- 11:47Speaker 7: based on a false and misleading narrative that somehow diversity
- 11:54Speaker 7: equity and inclusion promotes quotas and undermines narritive. I take
- 12:00Speaker 7: great exception to that, because what diversity equity inclusion says
- 12:05Speaker 7: is give everyone with merit a chance, not just some,
- 12:10Speaker 7: not just men, not just white men. Give everybody, including
- 12:16Speaker 7: a chance for the opportunities that America represents.
- 12:20Speaker 5: That's what this is all about.
- 12:22Speaker 7: And so we are going to continue to work and
- 12:25Speaker 7: fight and advocate for continuation of this country's commitment to
- 12:29Speaker 7: equal opportunity.
- 12:31Speaker 4: Well, market sounds like last week was a really big
- 12:33Speaker 4: week for you. You were inducted into the Nola Wall
- 12:35Speaker 4: of Walk of Fame on Thursday, and you received a
- 12:38Speaker 4: Humanitarian Award the first time a non sports person was
- 12:42Speaker 4: chosen for this award at the Super Bowl party on Saturday.
- 12:46Speaker 4: So very big week for you. But back on the
- 12:48Speaker 4: notion of companies walking back their commitments. Do you think
- 12:52Speaker 4: this is really just a sigh of relief for companies
- 12:54Speaker 4: that weren't necessarily genuine about these commitments, or do you
- 12:56Speaker 4: think maybe corporations just want to have the freedom to
- 13:00Speaker 4: make their own decisions without having to necessarily report and
- 13:03Speaker 4: be held accountable in those ways.
- 13:05Speaker 7: Well, reporting being accountable is what the law requires, It's
- 13:10Speaker 7: always required that. That's our system of laws, our systems
- 13:15Speaker 7: of the constitution. But I think some companies are frankly
- 13:19Speaker 7: being intimidated. There's a behind the scenes ever to intimidate,
- 13:24Speaker 7: to deveain, to threaten companies. I heard one story where
- 13:28Speaker 7: a company was told that if they did not walk
- 13:30Speaker 7: back their Dee and I, this group would launch a
- 13:35Speaker 7: social media campaign and show some lewde and lascivious videos
- 13:39Speaker 7: that may have taken place at an event that the
- 13:42Speaker 7: company co sponsored.
- 13:43Speaker 5: This is what we're faced.
- 13:45Speaker 7: We're faced with a smear campaign, a campaign of attacks,
- 13:50Speaker 7: a campaign of division, and yes, it is a campaign
- 13:54Speaker 7: of hate. Major corporations in America operate under rubric of law.
- 14:00Speaker 7: They follow that law. That law makes things fair and
- 14:04Speaker 7: equitable for everyone. All diversity, equity, inclusion is is a
- 14:08Speaker 7: program to implement non discrimination laws.
- 14:12Speaker 5: That's what it represents, and this nation cannot walk back.
- 14:17Speaker 7: And we are going to battle and fight and work
- 14:20Speaker 7: in the courts and in every way, shape or form
- 14:23Speaker 7: possible to ensure that this nation remains committed to equal opportunity.
- 14:27Speaker 3: Hey, Mark, it's really good to catch up with you.
- 14:29Speaker 3: Congratulations on the host of the awards. Congratulations on the
- 14:32Speaker 3: Eagles winning as well. Thank you so much for your
- 14:35Speaker 3: time today. Mark Mariral joining us their CEO of the
- 14:38Speaker 3: National Urban League.
- 14:44Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 14:47Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern Apple car Play and Android
- 14:51Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
- 14:54Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 14:58Speaker 4: Today we are joined by Michael Hale, and he is
- 15:00Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence senior restaurant and food service analysts here to
- 15:04Speaker 4: talk about McDonald's earnings. So we have McDonald's sales that
- 15:08Speaker 4: improved on stronger international results. What is your broad read
- 15:12Speaker 4: on this, Michael?
- 15:14Speaker 8: You know, the most important piece of the report really
- 15:17Speaker 8: is the US recovery post E Coli, and we got
- 15:21Speaker 8: some good news on that front. So traffic was actually
- 15:24Speaker 8: positive in December, so I think that was much better
- 15:27Speaker 8: than anyone had expected. They cited kind of a choppy
- 15:31Speaker 8: January here, but the only region is still impacted by
- 15:36Speaker 8: E COLI seems to be the Rocky Mountain region where
- 15:39Speaker 8: the outbreak occurred. And they expect a full US recovery
- 15:42Speaker 8: by the beginning of the second quarter.
- 15:43Speaker 6: Which is good news.
- 15:45Speaker 3: What about the rest of the world versus the US,
- 15:47Speaker 3: It was the rest of the world that really performed
- 15:49Speaker 3: well yeah, yeah.
- 15:52Speaker 8: And a big part of that was just lapping like
- 15:55Speaker 8: pretty weak year ago results, right, so we wrapped the
- 15:59Speaker 8: start of the of the Israel Hamas war, and so
- 16:02Speaker 8: the Middle East was stronger. Countries with large Muslim populations
- 16:06Speaker 8: were also stronger. And then also China lapped a very
- 16:09Speaker 8: weak result last year and management cited some stabilization in
- 16:13Speaker 8: that market, which is encouraging for them. So the easy
- 16:17Speaker 8: comps was what really fueled international sales. You know, we're
- 16:22Speaker 8: kind of more bullish on the US moving forward than international,
- 16:27Speaker 8: you know, because outside of the Middle East, in China,
- 16:30Speaker 8: Europe we think is going to continue to kind of
- 16:32Speaker 8: be an issue for them. The Arizona is experienced it's
- 16:36Speaker 8: seeing much higher inflation than the US, and that's really
- 16:41Speaker 8: crimping low income and family spending on the continent.
- 16:45Speaker 4: Are people still buying the Big Mac?
- 16:48Speaker 8: They don't break out Big Mac sales, but they cited
- 16:51Speaker 8: pretty strong results out of the Chicken Big Mac, which
- 16:55Speaker 8: I was kind of surprised about. You know, my associate
- 16:57Speaker 8: tried it, he was not a big fan. But but yeah,
- 17:01Speaker 8: they cited you know, pretty strong results out of the
- 17:04Speaker 8: Chicken Big Mac in the United States and other markets.
- 17:06Speaker 8: I think France was who they called out specifically and
- 17:10Speaker 8: to the point where they're going to continue to to
- 17:13Speaker 8: you know, bring it back as a limited time offare
- 17:15Speaker 8: in the future.
- 17:16Speaker 3: So I was actually talking to an IB user, a
- 17:19Speaker 3: Bloomberg user about this. Why are McDonald's franchises elsewhere like
- 17:25Speaker 3: a rest of world so much better than in the US,
- 17:27Speaker 3: and that like you can get like super good food
- 17:30Speaker 3: that doesn't take like fast food.
- 17:32Speaker 4: Why is that?
- 17:34Speaker 8: Yeah, Jonathan Farrowe asked me the same thing this morning.
- 17:36Speaker 8: He said he wants them all to be like the
- 17:39Speaker 8: you know McDonald's in Italy, you know, And the answer
- 17:42Speaker 8: I had there was just more discerning tastes.
- 17:45Speaker 3: Right, that might be it, no, but really, like is
- 17:49Speaker 3: it I mean, does it affect margins, Like, what are
- 17:52Speaker 3: the margins like in the US versus rest of the world.
- 17:55Speaker 8: We don't we don't have that information, you know what
- 17:58Speaker 8: I mean. It's a franchise business, right, So you know
- 18:04Speaker 8: what I mean, So we don't have a ton of
- 18:06Speaker 8: color on all the different franchise markets and what kind
- 18:09Speaker 8: of margins they pull in. You know, the US generally
- 18:14Speaker 8: is a lower margin for the franchise business, just because
- 18:20Speaker 8: they have a lot more franchisees and need a lot
- 18:23Speaker 8: more oversight. The international franchise business tends to generate wider margins.
- 18:30Speaker 4: So I always used to think about McDonald's is a
- 18:32Speaker 4: really cheap place, a discount fast food place, but prices
- 18:36Speaker 4: are getting higher. Are we still seeing demand from lower
- 18:39Speaker 4: income consumers for the brand?
- 18:42Speaker 8: You know, it continues to be the weak spot at
- 18:45Speaker 8: McDonald's and for anyone that has a lot of exposure
- 18:48Speaker 8: to low income consumers. So the entire QSR space, right,
- 18:51Speaker 8: Jack in the Box, Wendy's, Burger King, you know, a
- 18:55Speaker 8: lot a lot of chains, you know struggled last year
- 18:58Speaker 8: because of their inability to draw low income consumers. You know,
- 19:01Speaker 8: they're impacted most by inflation, right, We've had four plus
- 19:06Speaker 8: years of restaurant price hikes and higher costs across the board, right,
- 19:11Speaker 8: and so you know, chains that are exposed to low
- 19:15Speaker 8: income consumers are going to continue to press on value
- 19:17Speaker 8: to try to bring them into the fold. You know,
- 19:21Speaker 8: it seemed like it didn't seem like restaurants and sales
- 19:25Speaker 8: did improve for a quick service in the fourth quarter,
- 19:27Speaker 8: and we think a big part of that is just
- 19:29Speaker 8: a re establishing of their value proposition.
- 19:31Speaker 6: Right.
- 19:32Speaker 8: McDonald's early last year got a lot of shade about
- 19:35Speaker 8: the eighteen dollars big mac meal in Connecticut, right, and
- 19:38Speaker 8: so they decided to push hard on value, and prior
- 19:41Speaker 8: to the E Coli outbreak, you know, October had some
- 19:44Speaker 8: really good results. They were drawing customers in with that
- 19:47Speaker 8: five dollars meal deal, and traffic was positive for the
- 19:50Speaker 8: first time during the year. So value pushing on value
- 19:55Speaker 8: has been successful for McDonald's. That's not good for their
- 19:58Speaker 8: competitors because Donald's has the most scale, right, But we
- 20:02Speaker 8: think this is going to continue throughout twenty twenty five
- 20:05Speaker 8: in the quick service industry.
- 20:06Speaker 4: So just to confirm you're seeing, there was a meal
- 20:08Speaker 4: that came up to eighteen dollars. You totally missed this.
- 20:11Speaker 3: She totally missed this one.
- 20:13Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, it was one franchisee in Connecticut. Of course
- 20:18Speaker 8: it was Connecticut, right, no comment, no, fair enough, fair enough.
- 20:25Speaker 8: But he was he was pushing back because he, you know,
- 20:28Speaker 8: he was dealing with a lot of inflation and he
- 20:30Speaker 8: was just you know, he wanted to make some money
- 20:33Speaker 8: on the big mcneilie was trying to make a point in.
- 20:35Speaker 6: The frintage specialty.
- 20:37Speaker 3: Oh wow, so many things I think about on that.
- 20:40Speaker 4: All right, Michael, thanks a love. Were gonna leave it there.
- 20:42Speaker 3: Michael Halen, a Bloomberg Intelligence in Your Restaurant and Food
- 20:44Speaker 3: Service analyst, joining us on McDonald's.
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