Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NBA Best Bets Thursday 2/19/26
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
- 0:06Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
- 0:08Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
- 0:12Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
- 0:15Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
- 0:17Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
- 0:20Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
- 0:25Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, that's have
- 0:30Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
- 0:34Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
- 0:37Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man.
- 0:42Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
- 0:44Speaker 1: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even
- 0:47Speaker 1: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
- 0:51Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
- 0:53Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
- 0:56Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
- 0:59Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
- 1:03Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
- 1:07Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
- 1:11Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
- 1:13Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
- 1:15Speaker 1: the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
- 1:21Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
- 1:25Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:34Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Sewed back with you with Toadstool Sports.
- 1:38Speaker 1: It is Thursday, February nineteenth, two and oh. On the
- 1:43Speaker 1: show yesterday four and oh. Over the last two days,
- 1:46Speaker 1: a bunch of underdogs hitting for us again. We could
- 1:50Speaker 1: have had both hit outright, but that did not happen.
- 1:54Speaker 1: Butler did. Butler, I think was pretty much winning the
- 1:57Speaker 1: whole game outright. I know they had a double digit
- 1:59Speaker 1: lead in the second half. I believe they almost blew
- 2:03Speaker 1: the lead, but they still hung on for the win.
- 2:05Speaker 1: East Carolina did not get there, by the way, Both
- 2:09Speaker 1: those numbers did go up a little bit. Butler, I
- 2:12Speaker 1: think you could have gotten at six and a half
- 2:13Speaker 1: at some point before the game, and then East Carolina
- 2:17Speaker 1: I think was around eight, So not a huge difference,
- 2:21Speaker 1: no crossing through key numbers or anything. But yeah, East Carolina,
- 2:26Speaker 1: I mean they blew that game like they were in
- 2:28Speaker 1: the game the whole time, which, of course that is
- 2:30Speaker 1: what you want with the underdog. But then you go
- 2:33Speaker 1: into overtime and you're sitting you're sitting there and you
- 2:36Speaker 1: have the worst team. They're like, oh my god, there's
- 2:39Speaker 1: actually a chance they're not going to cover. Although luckily
- 2:41Speaker 1: Wichita is not a great offensive team, and it actually
- 2:45Speaker 1: wound up going into double overtime. East Carolina blew that
- 2:49Speaker 1: game in so many ways, dude, it was ridiculous. I
- 2:52Speaker 1: think it was in regulation they had a three point
- 2:55Speaker 1: lead with forty seconds left and they had the ball
- 2:58Speaker 1: and they turned the ball over or something like that,
- 3:03Speaker 1: or actually maybe they didn't have the ball at that point,
- 3:05Speaker 1: but they fouled stupidly. I don't know. I had it on,
- 3:08Speaker 1: but I can't even remember. It's all in my it's
- 3:11Speaker 1: all a mess in my brain right now, but I
- 3:12Speaker 1: know they fouled for no reason, gave Wichita free throws.
- 3:16Speaker 1: Wichita missed like one free throw. Then East Carolina basically
- 3:21Speaker 1: got down to a point where they were still winning
- 3:23Speaker 1: by I think two, and all they had to do
- 3:26Speaker 1: was inbound it and they were gonna get fouled again,
- 3:28Speaker 1: and they stepped out of bounds to turn the ball
- 3:31Speaker 1: over again, Wichita tied it, and I think that's what
- 3:34Speaker 1: sent it into the first overtime. Then East Carolina had
- 3:37Speaker 1: the lead in the first overtime as well. They're winning
- 3:41Speaker 1: by three points at the midway through that period, they
- 3:45Speaker 1: blew that. It went into double overtime, and the whole
- 3:48Speaker 1: time you're just thinking like they might actually lose this
- 3:50Speaker 1: thing by more than eight, like this is ridiculous. But
- 3:54Speaker 1: luckily they did not. They lost the game I think
- 3:57Speaker 1: by three or something. I mean, they definitely had chances
- 4:00Speaker 1: to win that game. Obviously it was the right call
- 4:03Speaker 1: and they did cover. And then my additional lean was
- 4:05Speaker 1: also correct. I believe with Marquette they were down two
- 4:09Speaker 1: in the final minute of that game. They wound up
- 4:12Speaker 1: losing because the intentionally fouled. They lost by more than that.
- 4:16Speaker 1: I think they lost by six or something. But I'm
- 4:18Speaker 1: pretty sure they indeed covered as well. So I was
- 4:22Speaker 1: right about a decent amount of the games yesterday. Oh
- 4:25Speaker 1: hang on, I gotta put I need to put the
- 4:28Speaker 1: rest of these banners in here for today. Let me
- 4:31Speaker 1: do that quickly, all right. I'm gonna have three plays today.
- 4:35Speaker 1: They're all in college basketball. I'm skipping the NBA. What
- 4:39Speaker 1: else is new? A lot of times I will do
- 4:42Speaker 1: that when the NBA returns from a break. I just
- 4:46Speaker 1: I don't know, there just aren't any angles that I
- 4:48Speaker 1: love that much. Here, Kyle, what's up? Thanks for hanging out,
- 4:52Speaker 1: Dirty Sock? What's up? Hell yeah, Marquette. I mean, as
- 4:59Speaker 1: I said, like, I'm just telling you exactly like what
- 5:02Speaker 1: I am playing, or what I would be playing if
- 5:04Speaker 1: I was doing this right now, Like that additional lean
- 5:08Speaker 1: that I'm giving out might be worth like a smaller
- 5:10Speaker 1: play or whatever. But it's like, you know, it's not
- 5:13Speaker 1: on my card because I don't feel that it's stronger
- 5:16Speaker 1: than the other ones or strong enough to actually elevate it.
- 5:21Speaker 1: But I don't know. I mean a lot of it
- 5:23Speaker 1: is just a feel about it. All right, Oh, let's
- 5:27Speaker 1: get into today. I mean that one kind of all
- 5:29Speaker 1: depended on how big that number or how big that
- 5:32Speaker 1: game that win was against Providence, I should say, all right,
- 5:36Speaker 1: let's get into today. We do start out with actually
- 5:40Speaker 1: kind of an indressing game six pm between Vermont and UNBC,
- 5:44Speaker 1: who are really the actual two best teams in the
- 5:47Speaker 1: American East, Because as you know, if you follow me,
- 5:50Speaker 1: NJIT is a complete fraud. They are not the best
- 5:53Speaker 1: team in this conference. Vermont, in fact is and Vermont
- 5:58Speaker 1: is actually a road favorite in this game. I believe
- 6:01Speaker 1: Vermont did already beat UNBC once this year. Yeah, they
- 6:03Speaker 1: did by nine at home, so I guess there is
- 6:06Speaker 1: a little bit of a revenge angle there for UNBC.
- 6:09Speaker 1: But I don't see either team overlooking this game. It's
- 6:12Speaker 1: a big game that has a lot of standing implications here.
- 6:16Speaker 1: I believe in this American East Conference, I'm pretty sure
- 6:19Speaker 1: the top seed gets home advantage in the conference tournament.
- 6:25Speaker 1: I believe up until recently they had it at like
- 6:28Speaker 1: a random one of the team's locations, which is really
- 6:32Speaker 1: stupid because you'd have like the three seed hosting the tournament.
- 6:35Speaker 1: It's like, well, why should the three seed get home advantage?
- 6:38Speaker 1: So they fix that so this conference is not as
- 6:42Speaker 1: stupid as that. UNBC is on a roll here with
- 6:45Speaker 1: four wins in a row. They just beat UNH doesn't
- 6:48Speaker 1: really matter coming back home for this game. Again, I
- 6:52Speaker 1: don't really see much of an angle on this. I
- 6:54Speaker 1: think it becomes the numbers play because both teams should
- 6:57Speaker 1: show up for it. Vermont is the better team or
- 7:00Speaker 1: one point road favor here, I suppose I would lean
- 7:04Speaker 1: to Vermont. When it comes down to a game like that,
- 7:06Speaker 1: you're picking the winner at that point, I think you
- 7:09Speaker 1: just pick whoever the better team is. But also I
- 7:12Speaker 1: think the public, if they're looking at this game, they
- 7:13Speaker 1: might be misled by looking at the team's records because
- 7:18Speaker 1: UNBC actually has the better record, but they are not
- 7:20Speaker 1: actually the better of the two teams. So slightly in
- 7:24Speaker 1: for me to Vermont in that game. This American East
- 7:28Speaker 1: Conference is just ugly though six pm. First televised game
- 7:33Speaker 1: is CBS Sports FIU at Liberty Liberty. I mean, they
- 7:37Speaker 1: just keep running through this bad conference USA Liberty. I
- 7:41Speaker 1: still am not really sold on Liberty. They should get
- 7:44Speaker 1: into the tournament, you know, they should be the representative
- 7:47Speaker 1: of this conference. Although they played so many close games,
- 7:50Speaker 1: there's definitely a chance they get knocked out in this
- 7:52Speaker 1: conference tournament. I don't think they're gonna lose the game
- 7:55Speaker 1: today against FIU. FIU actually had a close game against
- 8:01Speaker 1: Liberty the first time it was at FIU. FIU actually
- 8:04Speaker 1: took them into overtime. We'll call them Florida Illinois like
- 8:08Speaker 1: I used to call them Florida International. Liberty was a
- 8:12Speaker 1: big favorite in this or not a big favorite. They
- 8:14Speaker 1: were four and a half point favorite my mistake in
- 8:16Speaker 1: this first game, and FIU was able to take them
- 8:18Speaker 1: into overtime before losing. Of course, because Liberty is undefeated
- 8:23Speaker 1: in the conference. I think Liberty might remember that though,
- 8:26Speaker 1: might actually take them a little bit more seriously because
- 8:29Speaker 1: they know FIU took them into overtime that first time.
- 8:33Speaker 1: Liberty will be a double digit favorite this time. Liberty
- 8:37Speaker 1: does have the momentum still coming into this. They're coming
- 8:39Speaker 1: back home. The last time they were at home, they
- 8:41Speaker 1: weren't exactly great, barely getting by Missouri State, so they
- 8:44Speaker 1: might have more focus for that reason as well. And
- 8:47Speaker 1: they didn't play well in their last game on the
- 8:50Speaker 1: road against UTEP. They wound up winning by nine, but
- 8:53Speaker 1: UTEP was kind of hanging around in that game for
- 8:56Speaker 1: most of it. I watched some of the end of
- 8:58Speaker 1: that game Liberty. It was like, if you watch that game,
- 9:01Speaker 1: it was like inevitable that Liberty was gonna wind up
- 9:03Speaker 1: winning and winning by more than three, but it was like,
- 9:06Speaker 1: I don't know, it just wasn't a good game for Liberty.
- 9:10Speaker 1: I would probably have to lean to Liberty in this game.
- 9:12Speaker 1: If I was gonna do anything with it. The money
- 9:14Speaker 1: looks like it agrees with that. They're up from ten
- 9:16Speaker 1: and a half to eleven, fifty three percent of the
- 9:19Speaker 1: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on liberty. I'd
- 9:22Speaker 1: probably agree with laying it, but it's not a huge,
- 9:26Speaker 1: not a strong opinion for me at all, But it's
- 9:28Speaker 1: my TV game opinion in that one. South Carolina Upstate
- 9:34Speaker 1: at Winthrop is somewhat of an addressing game in the
- 9:37Speaker 1: Big South. These two teams are already played at usc Upstate
- 9:41Speaker 1: and Winthrop won the game. No surprise there, they did
- 9:44Speaker 1: win in a blowout by twenty one. Winthrop is pretty
- 9:48Speaker 1: clearly the second best team in this conference, like there
- 9:51Speaker 1: are huge gaps in this conference between the number one,
- 9:53Speaker 1: the number two, and then everybody else. High Point is
- 9:56Speaker 1: obviously the best, although Winthrop did actually beat them once.
- 10:00Speaker 1: Winthrop is the next best, and then there's like everybody else.
- 10:04Speaker 1: Winthrop might overlook USC Upstate though. Usc Upstate is coming
- 10:09Speaker 1: out of a decent performance on the road at Longwood,
- 10:12Speaker 1: second straight road game for them, but I think they
- 10:14Speaker 1: will show up for a game against Winthrop, and I
- 10:16Speaker 1: think the spot is worse for Winthrop here because again
- 10:19Speaker 1: they already blew this team out by twenty one on
- 10:21Speaker 1: the road. And Winthrop, of course, they have their biggest
- 10:24Speaker 1: game remaining on the season. Next they have to go
- 10:27Speaker 1: to high Point, and I think high Point is just
- 10:30Speaker 1: gonna wind up wiping them out. High Point lost to
- 10:33Speaker 1: them pretty badly at Winthrop and that's high Points only loss,
- 10:37Speaker 1: but that's still a huge game between those two teams.
- 10:40Speaker 1: So I think it's a look ahead spot for both
- 10:42Speaker 1: of those teams today. Pretty big look at for Winthrop.
- 10:45Speaker 1: Winthrop also just destroyed Gardner Webb, who is an atrocious
- 10:49Speaker 1: team this year, but Winthrop put up over one hundred
- 10:52Speaker 1: points in that game. They're playing a team they're already
- 10:54Speaker 1: been on the road by twenty plus and they have
- 10:56Speaker 1: their monster game on deck against high Point. It's not
- 11:00Speaker 1: a good spot for Winthrop. Man, So I would have
- 11:02Speaker 1: to fade Winthrop in this game if I was gonna
- 11:05Speaker 1: do anything with it. They're up to a fourteen point favorite.
- 11:08Speaker 1: But the only way I could look at this game
- 11:10Speaker 1: is to take the points with USC Upstate. I don't
- 11:14Speaker 1: love it, but you know it is an opinion. Nonetheless
- 11:17Speaker 1: for me. Usc Upstate in that game against long Wood.
- 11:21Speaker 1: They were six and a half point favorites, and they
- 11:23Speaker 1: actually did go into overtime in that game, So that
- 11:26Speaker 1: would be one reason to hesitate a little bit for
- 11:28Speaker 1: me there is that they played an overtime game as
- 11:31Speaker 1: an underdog, and a lot of times I want to
- 11:32Speaker 1: fade a team that did that, like fade them in
- 11:35Speaker 1: their next game, because that was a big effort from them,
- 11:38Speaker 1: and they're gonna have to put up another big effort
- 11:39Speaker 1: in this one. But yeah, I would still take the
- 11:43Speaker 1: points in that one. Marshall and app State Apple atchied
- 11:47Speaker 1: state in the Sun Belt. These two teams are both
- 11:50Speaker 1: near the top of the conference. App State is actually
- 11:53Speaker 1: tied at the top with Troy right now, although I
- 11:55Speaker 1: still think Troy is better than app State. Marshall is
- 11:59Speaker 1: coming up a pretty big win over at South Alabama,
- 12:01Speaker 1: who's also close to the top of the conference. They're
- 12:05Speaker 1: having to play a second big game in a row here.
- 12:07Speaker 1: They already beat app State at home, by the way,
- 12:10Speaker 1: by seven, So the spot to me doesn't look exactly
- 12:13Speaker 1: great for Marshall here, although you're gonna get up when
- 12:16Speaker 1: you're playing the team it's atop the conference. But app
- 12:19Speaker 1: State might be the team that gets a little bit
- 12:22Speaker 1: more motivated for this one. App State, might you know,
- 12:25Speaker 1: fix whatever went wrong in that first matchup. App State
- 12:28Speaker 1: is coming up of an ugly loss to James Madison.
- 12:31Speaker 1: Although I don't think James Madison is as bad as
- 12:33Speaker 1: the record might look. They're starting to actually play better recently.
- 12:36Speaker 1: But that wasn't a great loss for app State. So
- 12:39Speaker 1: for the most part, I lean to app State here,
- 12:42Speaker 1: but I don't like the fact that they just lost
- 12:44Speaker 1: a huge win streak. They lost a seven game win streak,
- 12:48Speaker 1: and you know I talk about that when a team
- 12:50Speaker 1: loses a win streak like that, a lot of times
- 12:52Speaker 1: they will lose the same game twice and we'll be
- 12:54Speaker 1: hung over into the next game. So this one is
- 12:57Speaker 1: a stay away as well. It's an interesting game'd be
- 13:00Speaker 1: fun to watch. App State is a two and a
- 13:02Speaker 1: half point favorite in that one. I'd probably lay the
- 13:05Speaker 1: points there. But Marshall is getting the money. Fifty three
- 13:08Speaker 1: percent of the tickets is seventy eight percent of the
- 13:10Speaker 1: cash on Marshall, so the money is coming in on
- 13:14Speaker 1: Marshall there. For what that's worth. I slightly disagree with it, though,
- 13:19Speaker 1: Rio what's up man? What happened to Auburn. I don't
- 13:25Speaker 1: even know. I didn't see much of that game. I
- 13:27Speaker 1: don't even know what happened in that game. Wait, who
- 13:30Speaker 1: did Auburn play? Yes, dude, I don't remember it all.
- 13:33Speaker 1: I had too many games. I was watching the Alabama
- 13:36Speaker 1: Arkansas game, which was the craziest game yesterday. That went
- 13:40Speaker 1: way over the total because it went to like three
- 13:42Speaker 1: overtimes and I'd said over in that game, which I
- 13:48Speaker 1: don't know if it went over in regulation. I have
- 13:50Speaker 1: to go back and look. But that was the craziest
- 13:52Speaker 1: game yesterday, seven pm ESPN two. Memphis at South Florida.
- 13:58Speaker 1: Decent game in the American Conference here. Memphis is not
- 14:00Speaker 1: as bad as their record looks. Memphis is coming off
- 14:03Speaker 1: a pretty ugly out of conference loss to a really
- 14:06Speaker 1: good Utah State team. Utah State looked really good last night,
- 14:10Speaker 1: blew out Boise. I watched a little bit of that game.
- 14:13Speaker 1: I was pretty surprised. I thought Boise would hang in
- 14:15Speaker 1: that game. Not at all. Utah State destroyed them. They
- 14:21Speaker 1: destroyed Memphis too. Memphis third straight road game here, though
- 14:24Speaker 1: kind of a weird travel spot because they had to
- 14:26Speaker 1: go to Logan, Utah or wherever Utah State is, and
- 14:30Speaker 1: now they're coming back out of elevation. So it is
- 14:33Speaker 1: a weird travel scenario for Memphis here. So I don't
- 14:36Speaker 1: love that, although I kind of lean towards them bouncing
- 14:40Speaker 1: back off that ugly loss. South Florida is coming off
- 14:43Speaker 1: a tough game themselves where they did almost lose as
- 14:45Speaker 1: a favorite, So sometimes you will want to look towards
- 14:48Speaker 1: the team that almost lost as a favorite. But that
- 14:51Speaker 1: was a tough game man against Florida Atlantic. It was
- 14:54Speaker 1: a Florida rivalry game. I still think that was kind
- 14:56Speaker 1: of a big game for both teams. It went into overtime.
- 14:59Speaker 1: I watched some of the into that game too. South
- 15:02Speaker 1: Florida did get through it with the win. They at
- 15:05Speaker 1: least have the better travel spot I guess here because
- 15:07Speaker 1: they're staying in Florida. I don't believe they played Memphis yet.
- 15:10Speaker 1: Know they play them again in March, but right towards
- 15:13Speaker 1: the end of the season there. This is a tough call.
- 15:18Speaker 1: It'll be an interesting TV game. I'll lean to Memphis
- 15:21Speaker 1: somewhat in this game, though the money looks like it
- 15:24Speaker 1: does agree with that. South Florida minus eight in this
- 15:27Speaker 1: game seventy percent of the tickets on South Florida sixty
- 15:30Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on Memphis. So it looks
- 15:32Speaker 1: like there is a pros versus Joe's split there. Public
- 15:37Speaker 1: doesn't want Memphis man just based on what their record
- 15:40Speaker 1: is this year. But again, I think they're a little
- 15:42Speaker 1: bit under the radar. I don't think they're as bad
- 15:43Speaker 1: as their record makes them look. So slightly for me
- 15:46Speaker 1: to Memphis plus the points there Hubbard Chubba Hubbard, Chuba Hoobard,
- 15:52Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers running back, the total drop four points
- 15:59Speaker 1: and more valuable on it. Then let me I'm gonna
- 16:03Speaker 1: look real quick and see if that game still went
- 16:06Speaker 1: over in regulation. That was a two overtime game, not
- 16:08Speaker 1: a three overtime game. So it was ninety five to
- 16:17Speaker 1: ninety five I think was that? What was? Yeah? Based
- 16:19Speaker 1: on am I doing math?
- 16:20Speaker 2: Right?
- 16:21Speaker 1: Yeah, it was ninety five ninety five at the end
- 16:23Speaker 1: of regulation, so the first half was really high scoring.
- 16:28Speaker 1: I think that still was enough to go over, right,
- 16:30Speaker 1: That was one ninety in regulation, right, so it still
- 16:34Speaker 1: went over in regulation? Yeah. I don't know what that
- 16:38Speaker 1: drop was before game time. I didn't see it happen,
- 16:42Speaker 1: but it wasn't one of my players or anything. I'm
- 16:44Speaker 1: not really a totals guy, but that's the way I
- 16:46Speaker 1: thought that it made sense to play that game, and
- 16:50Speaker 1: you know it was all right. Espn U at seven
- 16:54Speaker 1: pm unc Asheville at High Point. I already kind of
- 16:57Speaker 1: alluded to this game, you d Ashville is usually one
- 17:01Speaker 1: of the better teams in the Big South, but this
- 17:03Speaker 1: year they're not having a great season. They did already
- 17:06Speaker 1: lose to High Point by eighteen points at home, so
- 17:09Speaker 1: High Point might overlook them after that. Unc Asheville coming
- 17:14Speaker 1: off kind of an ugly home loss as a favorite
- 17:16Speaker 1: to Presbyterian, so I think they might have already been
- 17:19Speaker 1: looking ahead to this high Point game. I think you
- 17:21Speaker 1: would see Asheville definitely has this game circle at this point.
- 17:25Speaker 1: They'll try to show up for a game against the
- 17:27Speaker 1: best team in the in the conference. Here High Point.
- 17:30Speaker 1: They're coming off beating Gardner Webb and putting up over
- 17:33Speaker 1: a hundred because that's what everybody does against this horrible
- 17:37Speaker 1: Gardner Web team. But I think High Points just gonna
- 17:40Speaker 1: be looking ahead at this point. Man Winthrop is the
- 17:42Speaker 1: only team in the conference that beat them this year.
- 17:45Speaker 1: That's a huge game. Against Winthrop. That game will determine
- 17:48Speaker 1: who gets the one seed in the conference pretty much,
- 17:50Speaker 1: so they're gonna be looking ahead, man, So I would
- 17:53Speaker 1: fade high Point in this one. I would take the
- 17:55Speaker 1: points with unc Asheville, and again, high Point might not
- 17:58Speaker 1: take them seriously after already destroying them on the road.
- 18:03Speaker 1: The line's gone up a little bit to fourteen and
- 18:04Speaker 1: a half, But the only way that makes sense for
- 18:07Speaker 1: me to look at this game would be to take
- 18:08Speaker 1: the points with unc Asheville. I mean, I don't really
- 18:12Speaker 1: think high Point's gonna lose the game, but that's a
- 18:15Speaker 1: lot of points to be laying. Even though I know
- 18:17Speaker 1: high Point is a great offense, so they can definitely
- 18:20Speaker 1: cover large numbers like that. But still, I would take
- 18:23Speaker 1: the points in that one if I was gonna do
- 18:27Speaker 1: anything with it. All right, Stonehill and new Haven, this
- 18:32Speaker 1: game almost made my card. New Haven is coming off
- 18:34Speaker 1: a big win over Long Island. Long Island is the
- 18:38Speaker 1: best team in this Northeast Conference. They only had one
- 18:41Speaker 1: loss in conference, and New Haven was able to get
- 18:44Speaker 1: a little bit of revenge against them for an earlier
- 18:46Speaker 1: season loss. I believe nice win. Yeah, it was actually
- 18:49Speaker 1: a quick revenge spot too, because they played Long Island
- 18:53Speaker 1: three games prior, and I actually thought Long Island would
- 18:55Speaker 1: take them more seriously because New Haven played them close
- 18:58Speaker 1: that first game, but new even got the win. I
- 19:01Speaker 1: think they could be in a letdown spot here facing
- 19:03Speaker 1: a stone Hill team that they already beat seventy to
- 19:07Speaker 1: fifty five on the road, so they might not take
- 19:10Speaker 1: stone Hill that seriously here. Unfortunately, they only play Fairly
- 19:13Speaker 1: Dickinson next, and they already beat fairly Dickinson too. Fairly
- 19:17Speaker 1: Dickinson is not a good team this year. But still,
- 19:21Speaker 1: there is definitely a letdown component of this. I could
- 19:23Speaker 1: see them not taking stone Hill seriously here. Stone Hill's
- 19:27Speaker 1: on a four game losing streak, so I expect stone
- 19:29Speaker 1: Hill will show up, But they played a lot of
- 19:32Speaker 1: road games during that stretch. Man, this is gonna be
- 19:34Speaker 1: their fifth road game in the last six games, I think,
- 19:36Speaker 1: is what this is. That's not easy to do at all, Man,
- 19:39Speaker 1: traveling all over the place, and they had to go
- 19:41Speaker 1: out to Chicago in the middle of that before coming
- 19:45Speaker 1: back home, and now they're going back out to Connecticut.
- 19:47Speaker 1: Not exactly the greatest travel spot for Stonehill. So I'll
- 19:51Speaker 1: stay away. But if I was gonna play the game.
- 19:53Speaker 1: I would have to take the points with stone Hill
- 19:56Speaker 1: new Haven, who is blank still on pre game year.
- 20:00Speaker 1: They're up to a two and a half point favorite.
- 20:02Speaker 1: I mean a game like this, I think getting any
- 20:05Speaker 1: points that you can is probably a plus. The total
- 20:09Speaker 1: actually opened less than one twenty When do you ever
- 20:12Speaker 1: see that in college basketball? Man? It's up to one
- 20:15Speaker 1: twenty one now, But this is expected to be one ugly,
- 20:18Speaker 1: ugly game with two bad offenses. So those are my
- 20:24Speaker 1: thoughts on that game. You know, not a lot going
- 20:27Speaker 1: on there, But actually, you know, I was considering putting
- 20:29Speaker 1: stone Hill on my card, but I decided not to.
- 20:32Speaker 1: The travel spot for them is kind of what gave
- 20:35Speaker 1: me the most hesitation with it. But yeah, all right,
- 20:40Speaker 1: what else we got going on? I mean Albany and
- 20:42Speaker 1: nj T as I keep talking about NJIT is not
- 20:45Speaker 1: for real, man. I know they're top this American East
- 20:47Speaker 1: Conference right now, but they're not gonna win this conference,
- 20:50Speaker 1: mark my words. They're winning. They're on a six game
- 20:55Speaker 1: win streak, excuse me, which started by beating Albany, who
- 20:58Speaker 1: they're playing now tonight. They beat Albany on the road,
- 21:03Speaker 1: so they might look right past Albany here, man, because
- 21:06Speaker 1: guess who nj T plays next. Oh yeah, they gotta
- 21:08Speaker 1: play Vermont, which is gonna be a huge game, and
- 21:11Speaker 1: it's gonna be revenge for Vermont, believe it or not.
- 21:14Speaker 1: Nj T. I don't know how they went into Vermont
- 21:16Speaker 1: and beat them, but that's gonna be a big game
- 21:19Speaker 1: on deck. They might look past Albany here. I would
- 21:22Speaker 1: have to lean to Albany in this game. Man. Albany
- 21:25Speaker 1: just beat Binghamton, doesn't really matter. Binghamton sucks, but this
- 21:29Speaker 1: will at least continue their momentum into this game, and
- 21:33Speaker 1: it was a close call for Albany against a bad
- 21:35Speaker 1: Binghamton team. It will be a third road game in
- 21:39Speaker 1: four to eight four games though for Albany, So that's
- 21:42Speaker 1: the I guess the one kind of difficulty here. But
- 21:45Speaker 1: I would have to take the points of Albany if
- 21:48Speaker 1: I was gonna do anything with this game. N j
- 21:50Speaker 1: I T is up to a four point favorite. I mean,
- 21:52Speaker 1: come on, man, I don't think they deserve to be
- 21:55Speaker 1: a four point favorite against Albany. To be honest, Albany
- 21:58Speaker 1: is kind of a mediocre team in the conference here.
- 22:00Speaker 1: They're not the bottom of the barrel of the conference here,
- 22:03Speaker 1: So they're not Binghamton, So yeah, I don't know. That's yeah,
- 22:08Speaker 1: nj it at some point they're gonna get knocked off. Man.
- 22:13Speaker 1: Oh yes, I already did read that comment. Yes, I'm
- 22:15Speaker 1: all over the place today. Man, all right, what else
- 22:20Speaker 1: do we want to talk about here? Monmouth and un
- 22:23Speaker 1: to see Wilmington is actually an interesting game in the Colonial,
- 22:26Speaker 1: with Monmouth now in third place in the conference, believe
- 22:29Speaker 1: it or not, although I do not think they're actually
- 22:31Speaker 1: the third best team in the conference, but that is
- 22:35Speaker 1: what the standings have right now. You would see Wilmington's
- 22:37Speaker 1: coming off a stretch where they beat Charleston. Actually they
- 22:41Speaker 1: lost to William and Marry the game before that. Then
- 22:43Speaker 1: they beat Charleston, didn't fall into the sandwich, and I
- 22:47Speaker 1: took a loss on Elon. I'm about to sneeze. Oh god, man,
- 22:56Speaker 1: this winter weather man, it's awful, all right. But yes,
- 23:00Speaker 1: they were able to win in the sandwich spot against
- 23:02Speaker 1: Elon and cover somehow, and then they beat Hostra in
- 23:06Speaker 1: a big game in the next game. So they played
- 23:09Speaker 1: a bunch of big games in a row here. Man.
- 23:12Speaker 1: Three out of the last four games have been against
- 23:15Speaker 1: three of the top teams in the conference. So Wilmington
- 23:17Speaker 1: could be in a bit of a letdown spot here.
- 23:21Speaker 1: Don't know if they're really gonna take Monmath serious. I
- 23:23Speaker 1: don't think they faced Monmouth this year. I think this
- 23:26Speaker 1: might be the only time they played them this year.
- 23:28Speaker 1: But maybe they'll take them a little more seriously because
- 23:30Speaker 1: Monmouth is now three games behind them. But even so,
- 23:34Speaker 1: I still see this as a letdown spot for UNC
- 23:36Speaker 1: Wilmington here. After that big win over Hostra, they played
- 23:41Speaker 1: Campbell next, and Campbell did give them some problems last
- 23:45Speaker 1: time they played them, so it's possible they're gonna be
- 23:47Speaker 1: looking ahead to that a little bit. I guess Monmouth
- 23:49Speaker 1: is kind of snuck up in the conference. Man, it
- 23:51Speaker 1: might not be taken seriously. Monmouth is coming off a
- 23:54Speaker 1: win over a thousand, doesn't really matter that much. But
- 23:57Speaker 1: for Monmouth, they are playing a third road game in
- 23:59Speaker 1: four games, which is not that easy to do. Like
- 24:02Speaker 1: I have been saying, a lot of these road teams
- 24:04Speaker 1: today are playing a lot of road games in quick succession.
- 24:09Speaker 1: I would still lean to taking the points with mod
- 24:11Speaker 1: Meth here. Wilmington's down from eight to seven here, but
- 24:14Speaker 1: they look like they are getting the money now, and
- 24:15Speaker 1: I don't really agree with that fifty to fifty on
- 24:18Speaker 1: the tickets sixty percent of the cash on UNC Wilmington,
- 24:21Speaker 1: I would lean towards taking the points though it is
- 24:24Speaker 1: a pretty low total in the one forties. Wilmington is
- 24:27Speaker 1: not an offensive jugger, not really, and I believe they
- 24:29Speaker 1: play pretty slow pace, so they do play a lot
- 24:32Speaker 1: of low scoring games. All right, next up, I might
- 24:36Speaker 1: have to blow my nose again. Man, This sneezing is bad, man.
- 24:41Speaker 1: This next game is one of my plays. It is
- 24:43Speaker 1: one of the best bets. Hoo boy, let's do it.
- 24:52Speaker 1: Although I think it looks like I skipped one of
- 24:54Speaker 1: my best bets already. No, it's coming up. This will
- 24:57Speaker 1: be my first one though. We're gonna be on William
- 24:59Speaker 1: and Ma pick them. I found them at a pick
- 25:02Speaker 1: them at minus one ten. I would look at the
- 25:04Speaker 1: money line market on this too, like just find the
- 25:07Speaker 1: best number that you can on this. You might be
- 25:09Speaker 1: able to find a money line and minus one ten
- 25:11Speaker 1: as well. So again, look at the spread market, look
- 25:13Speaker 1: at the money line market too, and have as many
- 25:16Speaker 1: books as possible. This is why having as many books
- 25:19Speaker 1: as possible and looking at multiple markets also helps you
- 25:23Speaker 1: out because you can find a different number. Even the
- 25:25Speaker 1: same book might have a different number in a different
- 25:27Speaker 1: market because the money line market is a different market.
- 25:30Speaker 1: So this I found in the spread market at a
- 25:32Speaker 1: pick them at minus one ten. But I think you
- 25:35Speaker 1: can find it on the money line somewhere too. Either
- 25:37Speaker 1: way you want to do it, I think you'll be
- 25:40Speaker 1: able to find it out there somewhere. We're going with
- 25:42Speaker 1: William and Mary here. If you can't find a minus
- 25:46Speaker 1: one ten anywhere, I would still probably go money line
- 25:48Speaker 1: with it, like probably minus one fifteen something in that ballpark.
- 25:53Speaker 1: But we're gonna do it. Even though I know William
- 25:55Speaker 1: and Mary is the better team here, there's no secret
- 25:58Speaker 1: about that. There's a reason why they're face on the road.
- 26:00Speaker 1: But the public will also, you know, I mean they'll
- 26:03Speaker 1: consider them to be the better team too, because they
- 26:05Speaker 1: have the better record. But this is a spot play
- 26:07Speaker 1: for me. This has a lot going for it. Campbell.
- 26:12Speaker 1: I think they're actually in a sandwich spot man. I
- 26:14Speaker 1: think they might actually not take William and Mary seriously
- 26:17Speaker 1: because Campbell's coming up a big game against Charleston, who
- 26:20Speaker 1: is right near the top of the conference. Campbell was
- 26:23Speaker 1: almost able to beat Charleston. They played them close, basically
- 26:26Speaker 1: took them to the y or only lost by five,
- 26:29Speaker 1: and that cost them a win streak, which by the way,
- 26:32Speaker 1: started with winning at William and Mary. So Campbell has
- 26:37Speaker 1: already beaten William and Mary on the road. So I
- 26:39Speaker 1: think William and Mary has kind of been one of
- 26:40Speaker 1: those road revenge spots now where they're actually the better team.
- 26:44Speaker 1: They lost at home as a pretty substantial favorite. I
- 26:47Speaker 1: think they're gonna be out for blood and this one,
- 26:50Speaker 1: even though I mean that's not the best way to
- 26:52Speaker 1: look at it, because revenge isn't really the whole deal.
- 26:55Speaker 1: It's really more that they're gonna be the team that
- 26:57Speaker 1: makes the adjustments. Whereas Campbell knows that ever worked for
- 27:00Speaker 1: them in that game against William and Mary, and they
- 27:03Speaker 1: just you know, might not have it this time. If
- 27:05Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, Yeah, Campbell
- 27:07Speaker 1: did out rebound them, but William and Mary lost the
- 27:09Speaker 1: rebound or lost the turnover battle, excuse me, which is
- 27:13Speaker 1: one of the reasons why they lost the game. It
- 27:15Speaker 1: was kind of a weird game where teams are just
- 27:17Speaker 1: going to the free throw line constantly, so I don't
- 27:20Speaker 1: know how to interpret this box score really, like usually, yeah,
- 27:24Speaker 1: I'll see, like, well, William and Mary had way more
- 27:26Speaker 1: free throws and I won't like that in the second
- 27:29Speaker 1: matchup because that's kind of an outlier. But in this case,
- 27:32Speaker 1: both teams did go to the free throw line a ton,
- 27:35Speaker 1: so that was kind of an outlier there too. Campbell
- 27:38Speaker 1: did hit a bunch of three pointers too. They were
- 27:40Speaker 1: plus twenty one from three point range, so that's another
- 27:43Speaker 1: reason why they won this game three point. You know,
- 27:45Speaker 1: there's a lot of variants with three pointers, so you
- 27:48Speaker 1: can't really look into that that much. They hit thirty
- 27:50Speaker 1: nine percent of their threes. They take more threes than
- 27:53Speaker 1: William and Mary does. But I don't like teams that
- 27:56Speaker 1: heavily rely on the three because they're just such high
- 27:58Speaker 1: variants and it's hard to repeat that in the next game.
- 28:03Speaker 1: That plus the spot that's going on with Campbell here,
- 28:05Speaker 1: they also have UNC Wilmington on decks. So that's why
- 28:08Speaker 1: I said I think this is a sandwich spot because
- 28:10Speaker 1: it's sandwiched in between the top two teams in the conference.
- 28:13Speaker 1: And even though William and Mary is ahead of them
- 28:15Speaker 1: by a half game, they beat William and Mary on
- 28:18Speaker 1: the road, man, like I said, and William and Mary
- 28:20Speaker 1: should have won the game, and we're eight and a
- 28:21Speaker 1: half point favorites in the game, so you know William
- 28:24Speaker 1: and Mary is going to take them seriously. I'd show
- 28:27Speaker 1: up for this one. And William and Mary's coming up
- 28:29Speaker 1: an ugly home loss. They've actually lost four of their
- 28:32Speaker 1: last six games too, so I think you're gonna get
- 28:35Speaker 1: an effort out of them here. Man. I know it's
- 28:38Speaker 1: a fourth road game in five games, which is difficult.
- 28:41Speaker 1: You know, I'm not gonna deny that, but at least
- 28:43Speaker 1: they did come back home for one game. Now they're
- 28:46Speaker 1: going to Campbell here, which is not that much of
- 28:49Speaker 1: a travel spot from you know, from Virginia to North Carolina. Here,
- 28:53Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up for it. They just
- 28:55Speaker 1: lost at home to Elon, not a great loss William
- 28:58Speaker 1: and Mary. They're definitely a fan in that game, So
- 29:01Speaker 1: I think the spot sets up a lot better for
- 29:03Speaker 1: William and Mary here. And if we look at ken
- 29:05Speaker 1: Bum's numbers on this, he does have William and Mary
- 29:07Speaker 1: as the better team. I believe on both sides of
- 29:10Speaker 1: the ball, he has them fairly unlucky too. They're in
- 29:12Speaker 1: the bottom third ken Bump's Luck Index. They do play
- 29:16Speaker 1: really fast, which is not something I love, that extreme
- 29:19Speaker 1: tempo out of William and Mary, but they do play
- 29:22Speaker 1: a really strong transition game. Campbell does also play fast,
- 29:27Speaker 1: it's just that Willyim and Mary is better at it
- 29:29Speaker 1: and Campbell is very, very bad defensively, and they're higher
- 29:33Speaker 1: and ken Bump's Luck Index at one hundred and thirty seventh,
- 29:35Speaker 1: so they're in the top third of luck. So ken
- 29:39Speaker 1: Bum is telling you that even with these records, William
- 29:42Speaker 1: and Mary is actually a little bit underrated and Campbell
- 29:44Speaker 1: is actually a bit overrated, and mostly it's because Campbell
- 29:47Speaker 1: is bad on defense. Again, both teams play fast, but
- 29:51Speaker 1: Willim and Mary is the better of the two teams
- 29:53Speaker 1: at doing it, and I believe he has William and
- 29:55Speaker 1: Mary better on offense too, not by as much, but
- 29:59Speaker 1: they have their better on both sides of the ball.
- 30:01Speaker 1: So we are definitely talking about the significantly better team here.
- 30:06Speaker 1: It looks like the money is coming in towards William
- 30:08Speaker 1: and Mary as well. They're up to one and a
- 30:09Speaker 1: half point favorite now, so again I would start looking moneyline,
- 30:13Speaker 1: find whatever the best price is that you can on
- 30:16Speaker 1: this eighty six percent of the tickets, ninety nine percent
- 30:18Speaker 1: of the cash on William and Mary. I'm gonna agree
- 30:21Speaker 1: with William and Mary in that one. Obviously, that is
- 30:24Speaker 1: one of my plays. All right, let's keep it going, man.
- 30:30Speaker 1: Next up is the next best bet. Two out of
- 30:33Speaker 1: the three, this is the best bet segment. We're gonna
- 30:35Speaker 1: take the Citadel the Shit a deell because they are shit.
- 30:39Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. They're horrible. They're actually probably
- 30:42Speaker 1: worse than the record looks. But this is a horrible
- 30:45Speaker 1: spot for Samford and we're getting a bunch of points
- 30:47Speaker 1: at home. So let's do it. Samford. They're coming into
- 30:52Speaker 1: this game on a really nice stretcher. They won five
- 30:54Speaker 1: games in a row. But look at that stretch of games, man,
- 30:58Speaker 1: They beat the Citadel at home by fourteen team. So
- 31:00Speaker 1: this is gonna be a revenge spot for Citadel, and
- 31:03Speaker 1: Samford might not totally focus on them this time. Then
- 31:07Speaker 1: at home they beat Mercer and Wafford. So again keeping
- 31:11Speaker 1: in mind, Sanford was at home for those games, two
- 31:15Speaker 1: huge wins against Mercer and Wafford. Those teams are running
- 31:19Speaker 1: two and three or three and two. I guess in
- 31:21Speaker 1: the conference right now in the Soacon, then what do
- 31:24Speaker 1: they do. They went on the road and they beat
- 31:26Speaker 1: East Tennessee State as well, who is the top team
- 31:29Speaker 1: in the conference. So Samford in the last three games
- 31:32Speaker 1: is beaten the top three teams in the conference. Now
- 31:35Speaker 1: they play the Citadel, second straight road game and they
- 31:38Speaker 1: already beat the Citadel once and up next they got
- 31:41Speaker 1: Mercer again, who's one of the top teams in the conference.
- 31:44Speaker 1: So this to me looks like a big time sandwich spot.
- 31:47Speaker 1: At the very least, it's a letdown spot. Plus it's
- 31:50Speaker 1: a revenge spot for the Citadel. And if we look
- 31:52Speaker 1: at what Samford has done on the road in conference
- 31:55Speaker 1: play this year, they beat Va Mile, although everybody does.
- 31:59Speaker 1: They lost to Green they lost to Chattanooga, they lost
- 32:02Speaker 1: to Watford, they lost to Furman. They did beat Western
- 32:06Speaker 1: Carolina and then most recently East Tennessee. Yeah, but they're
- 32:08Speaker 1: still they're below five hundred straight up in conference play
- 32:12Speaker 1: on the road, man, So it's not like they're exactly
- 32:14Speaker 1: road warriors here the Citadel. I know they're bad. They've
- 32:19Speaker 1: lost two games in a row here, but they are
- 32:21Speaker 1: staying at home now. They just had a road trip
- 32:23Speaker 1: they came back home, they lost to a pretty good
- 32:25Speaker 1: Mercer team. But people are probably gonna look at that
- 32:28Speaker 1: and think Sanford is just gonna wipe the floor with
- 32:31Speaker 1: the Citadel here because they already beat them by double
- 32:33Speaker 1: digits once. They just beat Mercer by twenty and Mercer
- 32:36Speaker 1: just beat the Citadel by sixty and so this looks
- 32:39Speaker 1: way too easy to play Samford here, man. And by
- 32:42Speaker 1: the way, that Sanford East Tennessee game, I watched the
- 32:46Speaker 1: end of that. That was a very intense game and
- 32:48Speaker 1: it went into overtime too, So Samford is not only
- 32:51Speaker 1: in a letdown spot off of that, but that was
- 32:53Speaker 1: a big game that you know, had extra effort involved
- 32:56Speaker 1: going into overtime to knock off the best in the conference.
- 33:00Speaker 1: So that was a huge game for the Citadel. I
- 33:05Speaker 1: expect them to show up, man. They're staying at home,
- 33:07Speaker 1: so the Travis spot works out better for them catching
- 33:10Speaker 1: a team that might not pay attention to them this time.
- 33:12Speaker 1: And if we look at the box scoring the first game, uh,
- 33:15Speaker 1: Samford were thirteen and a half point favorites there, so
- 33:18Speaker 1: I think the fact that they're ten and a half
- 33:19Speaker 1: on the road is a little bit of a stretch.
- 33:21Speaker 1: I think you got to give them at least a
- 33:23Speaker 1: little bit more for home court here, so I think
- 33:26Speaker 1: this line is slightly high based on that. But if
- 33:28Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, Samford had
- 33:31Speaker 1: a really really good shooting game in the game, fifty
- 33:33Speaker 1: one percent from the field and forty five percent from three.
- 33:37Speaker 1: They had eleven more free throw attempts as well, and
- 33:41Speaker 1: again they had five more threes made, So this game
- 33:45Speaker 1: was a pretty big outlier towards Samford if you look
- 33:48Speaker 1: at the actual stats that matter, the Citadel actually outrebounded
- 33:52Speaker 1: Samford in the game, so there were some stats here
- 33:55Speaker 1: that actually indicated this game was a lot closer than
- 33:58Speaker 1: the score made it look. Citadel was horrible from the
- 34:01Speaker 1: free throw line of the game too, which no team
- 34:04Speaker 1: shoots that badly. Even if you're a bad free throw
- 34:07Speaker 1: shooting team, you're not gonna shoot forty seven percent from
- 34:10Speaker 1: the free throw line every game. Maybe they'll have to
- 34:12Speaker 1: start taking granny shots like Wawford. But still, this is
- 34:17Speaker 1: a bad performance from the Citadel man all around, Like
- 34:21Speaker 1: shooting wise, I mean in a good shooting performance from Sanmford,
- 34:24Speaker 1: so I expect regression in both directions there, and the
- 34:27Speaker 1: Citadel actually had way more field goal attempts, even though
- 34:30Speaker 1: I know I talked about Wim and Mary had fewer
- 34:32Speaker 1: in their game against Campbell, but Citadel had twelve more
- 34:37Speaker 1: field goal attempts in the game match, so they had
- 34:39Speaker 1: more scoring opportunities in the game in a way, a
- 34:42Speaker 1: though again some of it was because they didn't go
- 34:44Speaker 1: to the free throw line as much. But there are
- 34:46Speaker 1: some indicators in that game that Citadel outplayed Samford in
- 34:50Speaker 1: the game. So we will be on the Citadel in
- 34:52Speaker 1: this one. Sanford's gonna be a public team. They're actually
- 34:55Speaker 1: up to eleven. Now, oh, no, eleven.
- 35:00Speaker 2: The top to you know what we use on stage.
- 35:02Speaker 2: But it's very very special because if you can see
- 35:06Speaker 2: the numbers, all go to eleven, look right across the board,
- 35:11Speaker 2: eleven or eleven, mostly eleven ams go up to ten.
- 35:15Speaker 2: Exactly Does that mean it's louder?
- 35:17Speaker 1: Is it any louder?
- 35:18Speaker 2: Well, it's one louder, isn't it? It's not ten? You
- 35:22Speaker 2: see most most blokes you're gonna be playing at ten.
- 35:24Speaker 2: You're on ten here, all the way up, all the
- 35:26Speaker 2: way up, all the way up. You're on ten on
- 35:28Speaker 2: your guitar where can you go from there?
- 35:31Speaker 1: Where? I don't know where exactly.
- 35:33Speaker 2: What we do is, if we need that extra push
- 35:36Speaker 2: over the cliff, you know what we do, put it
- 35:38Speaker 2: up to.
- 35:39Speaker 1: Eleven exactly one loud.
- 35:41Speaker 2: Why don't you just make ten louder and make ten
- 35:43Speaker 2: be the top number and make that.
- 35:45Speaker 1: A little louder.
- 35:49Speaker 2: These go to eleven.
- 35:52Speaker 1: Spinal Tap Baby excellent movie. But yes, Sam Verd is
- 35:59Speaker 1: up to an eleven favorite. Now they're looking like they're
- 36:01Speaker 1: gonna be public eighty seven percent of the tickets and
- 36:03Speaker 1: cash on them. And we got a low total of
- 36:06Speaker 1: one hundred and forty and a half here, So taking
- 36:09Speaker 1: the points does seem to make sense in that regard
- 36:12Speaker 1: as well. I think we're getting a Sanford team. It's
- 36:15Speaker 1: not that great on offense. I know they're still obviously
- 36:17Speaker 1: the way better team here. Actually their mid tier offense.
- 36:21Speaker 1: They're actually bad on defense, believe it or not, bottom
- 36:24Speaker 1: third and defense, and ken Bum does have them in
- 36:27Speaker 1: the top third and lucks they are somewhat lucky team.
- 36:29Speaker 1: But they do play slow, so that's the thing. They
- 36:32Speaker 1: don't tend to score a ton of points because they
- 36:35Speaker 1: play a slow pace. This is going to be a
- 36:37Speaker 1: slow paced game. Citadel play even slower Citadel. Yeah, they're
- 36:42Speaker 1: close to where Sanford is in the luck index, so
- 36:45Speaker 1: that's not great, but it kind of negates itself. And yes,
- 36:48Speaker 1: I know the Citadel is a bottom fifteen team in
- 36:51Speaker 1: the entire country. I get it. They're terrible. They're really
- 36:54Speaker 1: about on both sides of the ball. But this is
- 36:57Speaker 1: about the spot, and I don't think you should be
- 36:59Speaker 1: laying this many points on the road with a team
- 37:02Speaker 1: in a bad spot. That's still not a great team,
- 37:05Speaker 1: laying double digits like this a team it's very deficient
- 37:08Speaker 1: on the defensive side. Yeah, we're gonna be on the
- 37:11Speaker 1: Citadel in that one. Hopefully we can we can continue
- 37:14Speaker 1: this run, man, But yeah, that's the next play. Whoops,
- 37:19Speaker 1: my apologies, I meant to take the banner down. I'm
- 37:22Speaker 1: all over the place today. Man, all right, what do
- 37:25Speaker 1: we have going on next year? If you want me
- 37:28Speaker 1: to talk about any of these other games, I will,
- 37:29Speaker 1: but you know, for time's sake and whatever, you know,
- 37:32Speaker 1: I hit all the TV games just because I know
- 37:35Speaker 1: people like to have some involvement in the TV games
- 37:38Speaker 1: for entertainment and whatever. And I try to talk about,
- 37:41Speaker 1: you know, the games that I think are the better games.
- 37:43Speaker 1: I apologize yesterday I forgot to talk about the Evansville game,
- 37:45Speaker 1: and I forget if I want up being right on
- 37:47Speaker 1: it or not. It wound up being a boring game though,
- 37:49Speaker 1: But I forget what my opinion was gonna be on
- 37:52Speaker 1: that game between Evansville and Illinois Chicago. I think I
- 37:56Speaker 1: might have been wrong on it anyway, CBS Sports at
- 37:59Speaker 1: eight pm. Hampton at Hofstra. Kind of a weird setup
- 38:03Speaker 1: in this game because Hampton, Hampton and North Carolina A
- 38:07Speaker 1: and T both just played in Law in Los Angeles.
- 38:11Speaker 1: They both went out to LA to play in the
- 38:14Speaker 1: whatever it was like, the Black College special event thing
- 38:19Speaker 1: that was going on out there. So Hampton and NCAA
- 38:22Speaker 1: T are both traveling across the country, which is a
- 38:25Speaker 1: little bit of a weird setup for them. Man, So
- 38:27Speaker 1: that's not great. Uh. Hampton did lose that game to
- 38:30Speaker 1: NCAA and T though, and NCAAT is not a great team.
- 38:34Speaker 1: I don't even know how NCAA TA won that game
- 38:36Speaker 1: because I was actually watching some of that game and
- 38:39Speaker 1: it looked like Hampton had the game put away at
- 38:41Speaker 1: the end of that game, So I don't know how
- 38:42Speaker 1: they lost. They were winning about like five late in
- 38:45Speaker 1: the game. Whatever happened. Now they're traveling back. They're gonna
- 38:49Speaker 1: play Afstra here. Now they should get up for Hofstra
- 38:52Speaker 1: because Hampton just lost to the last place team in
- 38:55Speaker 1: the conference NCAA and t our second to last. Now
- 38:59Speaker 1: Northeastern is HOSTRA is one of the top teams in
- 39:04Speaker 1: the conference, so I do expect Hampton will show up here.
- 39:07Speaker 1: And for HOSTRA, they just lost a four game win
- 39:10Speaker 1: streak and they just played the top two teams in
- 39:12Speaker 1: the conference in two straight games, Charleston and UNC Wilmington,
- 39:16Speaker 1: So they just had two huge games and they lost
- 39:19Speaker 1: a win streak. So to me, it looks like a
- 39:21Speaker 1: hangover spot for Hofstra there off of those two huge games.
- 39:25Speaker 1: So I would actually still lean to Hampton in this
- 39:27Speaker 1: one plus the points. This one obviously does not make
- 39:30Speaker 1: my card or anything. HOSTRO is up from eleven and
- 39:33Speaker 1: a half to twelve and a half here. It is
- 39:35Speaker 1: a low total in the one thirties, so taking the
- 39:37Speaker 1: points seems to make more sense there. But yeah, I
- 39:40Speaker 1: would lean to taking the points with Hampton. But I
- 39:42Speaker 1: don't love the fact that they're traveling across multiple time
- 39:46Speaker 1: zones by the way the Woyom and Mary Campbell game.
- 39:49Speaker 1: I also do agree with an over in that game,
- 39:52Speaker 1: by the way, I forgot to mention that, because it's
- 39:54Speaker 1: one of those games where both teams are super fast paced.
- 39:58Speaker 1: So I would agree with and over in that game
- 40:01Speaker 1: as well. Total in one hundred and sixty nine in
- 40:04Speaker 1: that one, all right, Texas State South Alabama is kind
- 40:09Speaker 1: of an interesting game in the Sun Belt. Texas State
- 40:13Speaker 1: just played a lackluster game against ULL Monroe and didn't cover.
- 40:17Speaker 1: And I told you I liked juol Monroe to cover
- 40:19Speaker 1: in that one. As horrible as they are. Texas State
- 40:23Speaker 1: had just beaten Troy the game before that, which was
- 40:25Speaker 1: a huge win in this conference, and then they had
- 40:27Speaker 1: this big game against South Alabama on deck, so they
- 40:31Speaker 1: were in a sandwich spot between two of the best
- 40:33Speaker 1: teams in this conference. So I think that's why they
- 40:37Speaker 1: got caught and didn't play that good of a game there,
- 40:39Speaker 1: although they still won. Because Ull Monroe is absolutely terrible.
- 40:44Speaker 1: Texas State they did beat South Alabama already at home
- 40:47Speaker 1: by two. I think it was a close spread in
- 40:51Speaker 1: that game, probably zoo so I don't know, but could
- 40:53Speaker 1: be maybe a little bit of revenge for South Alabama
- 40:55Speaker 1: here now, but Texas State, again, they are coming off
- 40:59Speaker 1: of that bad performance Ceuth. Alabama, meanwhile, is coming up
- 41:03Speaker 1: of a bigger game against Marshall and they beat Arkansas
- 41:06Speaker 1: State the game before that, so they had two big
- 41:09Speaker 1: games coming into this game against Texas State, who's actually
- 41:12Speaker 1: lower in the conference than Marshall is. And then South
- 41:15Speaker 1: Alabama does have Troy on deck, who I still think
- 41:17Speaker 1: is the best team in the conference, and they might
- 41:20Speaker 1: consider that to be a little bit of a bigger game.
- 41:21Speaker 1: Although maybe they won't overlook Texas State here because they
- 41:24Speaker 1: did lose to Texas State already and Texas State is
- 41:28Speaker 1: right behind them. But I think the spot is a
- 41:31Speaker 1: little bit better for Texas State here though, because they're
- 41:33Speaker 1: coming up of a much much easier game, where South Alabama,
- 41:37Speaker 1: you know, was in a hotly contested game, very competitive
- 41:42Speaker 1: game against Marshall. So I would have to lead to
- 41:46Speaker 1: Texas State in this game based on what these teams
- 41:48Speaker 1: just did. South Alabama is up to a four and
- 41:50Speaker 1: a half point favor for some reason, though I don't
- 41:53Speaker 1: know if there's an injury or what's going on there,
- 41:55Speaker 1: but I think you might be getting some line value
- 41:57Speaker 1: in Texas State. Now with that line moving, I mean,
- 42:00Speaker 1: that's kind of crazy. What was the line in the
- 42:03Speaker 1: first game? Let me see, this is at Texas State.
- 42:06Speaker 1: In the first game it was Texas State minus three
- 42:09Speaker 1: and a half, So I don't know. Man four and
- 42:11Speaker 1: a half on South Albama does seem slightly high, although
- 42:15Speaker 1: the one and a half or whatever where they open
- 42:17Speaker 1: two and a half seems slightly low. So I don't know,
- 42:21Speaker 1: but I'd probably lean towards Texas State in that game.
- 42:23Speaker 1: It's a pretty low total in the one thirties. I
- 42:26Speaker 1: would probably take the points there. Last best bet is
- 42:30Speaker 1: about to come up here, also in the Sun Belt,
- 42:38Speaker 1: we're gonna be on Georgia State. This one I found
- 42:40Speaker 1: on the money line, but again I would look at
- 42:42Speaker 1: the money line market, look at the spread market, see
- 42:45Speaker 1: where you can find the best number on this. I
- 42:47Speaker 1: did find a money line at minus one ten on
- 42:49Speaker 1: Georgia State. And I think if the public looks at
- 42:52Speaker 1: this game this is against Georgia Southern here, they're gonna
- 42:55Speaker 1: see this game and think, how is Georgia State favored
- 42:58Speaker 1: in this game when they have a horrible record. Georgia
- 43:01Speaker 1: Southern as the better record. But I was telling you,
- 43:03Speaker 1: like really early on, when Georgia Southern was really hot
- 43:07Speaker 1: to start conference play, I was telling you they're a
- 43:10Speaker 1: fake team, like they're not this good, and they have
- 43:12Speaker 1: fallen off since then. So I think that these records
- 43:16Speaker 1: are still a little bit misleading. Georgia Southern is not
- 43:18Speaker 1: as good as they look, and ken Bum will bear
- 43:21Speaker 1: that out for us here as he has Georgia Southern
- 43:26Speaker 1: only about thirty rankings spots higher than Georgia State, and
- 43:29Speaker 1: he has them fifty third in luck, so he has
- 43:31Speaker 1: them as a very lucky team. They played a very
- 43:34Speaker 1: weak schedule overall, one of the bottom forty schedules in
- 43:38Speaker 1: all of college basketball. They do play really really fast,
- 43:41Speaker 1: so Georgia State might actually succeed in slowing them down
- 43:45Speaker 1: a little bit. And Georgia Southern. The other thing about
- 43:47Speaker 1: them is they are horrific on defense. They're like a
- 43:50Speaker 1: bottom fifty defense pretty much, so horrible, horrible defense. And
- 43:55Speaker 1: Georgia State they are better defensively, they're more of a
- 43:58Speaker 1: mid tempo team. I think they will slow this game down.
- 44:01Speaker 1: They actually have played significantly more difficult schedule than Georgia Southern,
- 44:06Speaker 1: which probably means they're out of conference. Schedule was way
- 44:08Speaker 1: more difficult. So again ken Bum is telling you don't
- 44:12Speaker 1: believe the records here, Georgia State has been the way
- 44:14Speaker 1: unluckier team. They're bottom third luck team actually almost in
- 44:19Speaker 1: like the bottom sixty something in luck. Again, the strength
- 44:23Speaker 1: of scheduled there, their schedule is like one hundred ranking
- 44:28Speaker 1: spots stronger than Georgia southerns is I think Georgia State
- 44:32Speaker 1: again might slow the game down a bit to try
- 44:34Speaker 1: to take Georgia Southern out of what they want to do,
- 44:38Speaker 1: which is to just go fast and play chaotically. Georgia
- 44:42Speaker 1: State is really bad at scoring, There's no doubt about that.
- 44:45Speaker 1: Georgia Southern is the better offense, but Georgia State is
- 44:48Speaker 1: the better defense by about one hundred ranking spots. So
- 44:52Speaker 1: Georgia Southern is terrible defensively, we're getting the better defense
- 44:56Speaker 1: and the I think the undervalue commodity with Georgia State here.
- 45:00Speaker 1: So numbers wise, this looks like a great play on
- 45:03Speaker 1: Georgia State here. But we haven't even talked about the
- 45:07Speaker 1: situation yet, which I think makes this even better. Georgia
- 45:11Speaker 1: Southern they did just end a win losing streak. And
- 45:15Speaker 1: I know when you end a losing streak sometimes you
- 45:17Speaker 1: will play better in the next game. But look at
- 45:19Speaker 1: this run of games they just had against Texas State
- 45:22Speaker 1: app State and then they beat Marshall and put up
- 45:24Speaker 1: over one hundred points against Marshall. That's a huge win. Man.
- 45:29Speaker 1: They just played the top or they just played two
- 45:32Speaker 1: of the top four teams in the conference in the
- 45:34Speaker 1: last couple of games. All those games were at home,
- 45:37Speaker 1: by the way for Georgia Southern, So now they have
- 45:39Speaker 1: to go on the road coming off a huge win
- 45:41Speaker 1: against Marshall, or they put up over one hundred points.
- 45:43Speaker 1: They have a quick revenge game against app State on
- 45:46Speaker 1: deck in two days, and app State is at the
- 45:49Speaker 1: top of the conference, so they might be looking ahead
- 45:51Speaker 1: to that game. So that's a huge look at spot too.
- 45:55Speaker 1: And even though this is a rivalry game, I think
- 45:58Speaker 1: Georgia State is gonna be the team it's more motivated
- 46:00Speaker 1: here because Georgia Southern already beat Georgia State ninety to
- 46:04Speaker 1: sixty seven at Georgia Southern, so they might look right
- 46:10Speaker 1: past Georgia State here, man, after beating them that badly
- 46:12Speaker 1: the first time. And if you look at what happened
- 46:15Speaker 1: in this game. I believe there were some outliers going
- 46:17Speaker 1: on in this game. Both teams didn't shoot well in
- 46:21Speaker 1: the game, But look at the free throw disparity in
- 46:23Speaker 1: this game, dude, Georgia Southern had thirty five free throw
- 46:26Speaker 1: attempts and hit eighty nine percent of them, and Georgia
- 46:30Speaker 1: State only had fourteen free throw attempts, Like, you don't
- 46:33Speaker 1: see that much of a disparity, like hardly ever, plus
- 46:37Speaker 1: twenty one in free throw attempts and the team and
- 46:39Speaker 1: they were just making all of them. That never happens basically,
- 46:43Speaker 1: So I think something is going to balance out here. Man.
- 46:47Speaker 1: Georgia State also lost the turnover battle by seven in
- 46:50Speaker 1: the game. Yes, they'll lost the rebound in battle. I
- 46:53Speaker 1: know that's not a good sign, but that's one of
- 46:57Speaker 1: many things to look at in the box score here, Like, yeah,
- 46:59Speaker 1: I know, the rebounding should be the more predictive stat here.
- 47:03Speaker 1: And yes, I know Georgia State got a rebounded in
- 47:05Speaker 1: the game, but they lost the turnover battle badly and
- 47:09Speaker 1: that free throw disparity was a massive, massive outlier. So
- 47:12Speaker 1: this game was definitely not what it really looked like
- 47:15Speaker 1: on the scoreboard. So I think that is telling. And
- 47:19Speaker 1: then for Georgia State here, they have lost a bunch
- 47:21Speaker 1: of games in a row. They've lost six games in
- 47:23Speaker 1: a row, although four of them are on the road,
- 47:27Speaker 1: and the last couple of games they played at home,
- 47:28Speaker 1: they weren't that bad. They lost by eleven Detroit Troy
- 47:32Speaker 1: is really good, and then they lost by one. I
- 47:34Speaker 1: know it's a bad Northern Illinois team, but still Georgia
- 47:37Speaker 1: State has at least I think, been a little bit
- 47:39Speaker 1: better at home to some extent here, most of those
- 47:44Speaker 1: losses around the road, they're coming up an ugly road.
- 47:46Speaker 1: Lost to Old Dominion, who's not having a good season.
- 47:49Speaker 1: I think you're gonna get an effort out of Georgia
- 47:51Speaker 1: State here. Georgia State, by the way, they beat Marshall
- 47:53Speaker 1: at home. They lost by two at home to app State.
- 47:57Speaker 1: They beat Arkansas State at home. Beating Southern miss at
- 48:01Speaker 1: home isn't that bad either, So this is a team
- 48:03Speaker 1: that hasn't been that bad. Dude. They beat Apps State
- 48:06Speaker 1: on the road, too, So I think Georgia State is
- 48:09Speaker 1: not as bad as they look, man based on looking
- 48:12Speaker 1: at a lot of what they've done earlier in conference play.
- 48:15Speaker 1: They're just been a bad stretch right now. WHEREASO for
- 48:18Speaker 1: Georgia Southern, I think they like the fact that they
- 48:23Speaker 1: started out really hot in conference play was just very
- 48:26Speaker 1: misleading and they beat some of the bad teams in
- 48:29Speaker 1: the conference, and then when they started playing better teams,
- 48:31Speaker 1: they just started losing. So prior to that Marshall game,
- 48:35Speaker 1: the only conference game that they'd won, the only actually
- 48:40Speaker 1: the only teams they'd beaten they'd beaten in conference for
- 48:43Speaker 1: like the last month were U All Monroe and Old Dominion.
- 48:47Speaker 1: They had three wins against those two teams. So that's
- 48:50Speaker 1: not a good sign that Georgia Southern is just barely
- 48:53Speaker 1: beating these awful teams. That was before they beat Marshall,
- 48:55Speaker 1: of course, but other than that, they were just beating
- 48:58Speaker 1: the dregs of the conference and barely being a Yuel
- 49:01Speaker 1: Monroe at home. So yeah, I like it. Man. I'm
- 49:05Speaker 1: I'm you know, be laboring this too much, but yes,
- 49:07Speaker 1: we will be on Georgia State here. They're getting the money.
- 49:11Speaker 1: They're up to one point favorite here. I would start
- 49:13Speaker 1: looking money line on this one. I mean, I'm giving
- 49:15Speaker 1: out a money line play on it as well. But yeah,
- 49:17Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets eighty six percent of the
- 49:19Speaker 1: cash on Georgia State. I think the money is agreeing
- 49:22Speaker 1: on this one. That's what we're doing. Yeah, Georgia State
- 49:28Speaker 1: is the play in that one money line. All right,
- 49:33Speaker 1: let's see what other games we want to talk about here,
- 49:38Speaker 1: I mean cal Baptist and A. Utah Valley is kind
- 49:41Speaker 1: of interesting in the Whack because, as I mentioned in
- 49:44Speaker 1: the comments in my bracketology video from Monday, which I
- 49:47Speaker 1: don't know, I might do a bracketology video tonight because
- 49:50Speaker 1: they're getting close to uh March here. I know. I've
- 49:52Speaker 1: been putting out the updated ones on Thursday, but haven't
- 49:55Speaker 1: been doing the video. Utah Valley is banned from postseason
- 50:00Speaker 1: play as of pretty recently, I think because they tried
- 50:03Speaker 1: to leave the Whack and they didn't play. They didn't
- 50:06Speaker 1: pay the exit fee, which is really really ridiculous. So
- 50:10Speaker 1: even though they're clearly the best team in the Whack
- 50:13Speaker 1: based on the power ratings and whatever, they can't make
- 50:16Speaker 1: the tournament, which is really really stupid. So I don't
- 50:18Speaker 1: know how that's gonna affect Utah Valley's level of play here,
- 50:22Speaker 1: but I actually like Utah Valley in this particular game.
- 50:25Speaker 1: Both teams did just lose to Utah Tech, but cal
- 50:28Speaker 1: Baptist was only about a two and a half way
- 50:31Speaker 1: favorite in that game on the road. And now Utah
- 50:33Speaker 1: Tech is actually second place in the conference, which is
- 50:37Speaker 1: not accurate. Utah Tech is not as good as either
- 50:40Speaker 1: cal Baptist or Utah Valley. I'll just tell you that
- 50:43Speaker 1: right now. But they just beat both teams. Cal Baptists
- 50:47Speaker 1: took that loss and they had not had a loss
- 50:49Speaker 1: for a long time. Dude, I did won. I don't
- 50:52Speaker 1: know what this is. Nine games in a row, eight
- 50:54Speaker 1: games in a row, whatever it was, including beating Utah
- 50:57Speaker 1: Valley in the middle of that stretch too. So now
- 51:00Speaker 1: that they lost a long win streak like that and
- 51:02Speaker 1: they're playing a third straight road game, you know, I
- 51:05Speaker 1: think that could be a hangover spot here, man for
- 51:07Speaker 1: cal Baptists. I think Utah Valley might be the team
- 51:10Speaker 1: to make the adjustments here after losing to cal Baptists.
- 51:14Speaker 1: They beat them earlier in the season. This is a
- 51:16Speaker 1: third meeting now and the most recent time they did
- 51:18Speaker 1: lose to them on the road. They did beat them
- 51:20Speaker 1: at home, but Utah Valley they also just lost to
- 51:24Speaker 1: Utah Attack, but they were like seven and a half
- 51:26Speaker 1: way favorites in that game, and I believe that I
- 51:29Speaker 1: leaned to Utah Attack in that one. I forget exactly
- 51:31Speaker 1: why I did, but yeah, I think Utah Valley is
- 51:36Speaker 1: more of the team. It's gonna be in the bounced
- 51:38Speaker 1: back spot here. They only lost a three game winning
- 51:40Speaker 1: streak there, so cal Baptist is coming off the bigger
- 51:44Speaker 1: losing the bigger win streak here, so I think the
- 51:46Speaker 1: hangover spot is gonna be possibly bad for them, whereas
- 51:50Speaker 1: Utah Valley losing is a big favorite. I think they're
- 51:52Speaker 1: gonna be in bounce back mode. So I prefer Utah
- 51:55Speaker 1: Valley in this game. Cal Baptist has seventy five percent
- 51:58Speaker 1: of the tickets in seventy six center the cash on them.
- 52:01Speaker 1: They look like they might wind up being a public
- 52:03Speaker 1: underdog here. I would lay it with Utah Valley. There
- 52:05Speaker 1: is a reason why they're seven and a half point
- 52:07Speaker 1: favorite here. Man. They're down from eight and a half
- 52:10Speaker 1: to seven and a half year and this will be
- 52:11Speaker 1: the last time they played cal Baptists because Utah Valley
- 52:14Speaker 1: can't play. I don't even think they could play in
- 52:16Speaker 1: the Whack Tournament, which is totally whack. So this is
- 52:21Speaker 1: their last chance to beat cal Baptists, so I think
- 52:24Speaker 1: they will show up here. I would lay it with them.
- 52:27Speaker 1: And again, the public might look at this and think, oh,
- 52:30Speaker 1: we're getting seven and a half points to the team
- 52:32Speaker 1: that actually has the better record, and they might want
- 52:34Speaker 1: to take the cal Baptist side the Lancers, But that
- 52:38Speaker 1: is not what I would do. I would go with
- 52:40Speaker 1: Utah Valley, the Wolverines, who are not as good as
- 52:43Speaker 1: the other Wolverines that are dominated college basketball. But you know,
- 52:49Speaker 1: Utah Valley would be the way I would lean in
- 52:50Speaker 1: that one. Kyle, what's up, man, I don't know. I
- 52:56Speaker 1: think it might just be this season. I have no
- 52:58Speaker 1: idea though. M h. It's dude. These rules are so stupid. Dude,
- 53:04Speaker 1: the NCAA just tries to screw these programs. I'm gonna
- 53:09Speaker 1: look right now, Utah Valley is actually suing the whack
- 53:17Speaker 1: as well. Uh let me see here. It's because Utah
- 53:25Speaker 1: Valley is saying they're gonna uh move over to the
- 53:27Speaker 1: Big West Conference after this year. Uh. They were supposed
- 53:30Speaker 1: to pay a million dollars in an exit fee and
- 53:33Speaker 1: they didn't do it. Now they're suing the Whack. It
- 53:41Speaker 1: seems like they're they're broadcasts are getting banned from. Uh, like,
- 53:45Speaker 1: I guess the conference, we will like televise like a
- 53:49Speaker 1: lot of the games and stuff, and they're actually refusing
- 53:51Speaker 1: to televise Utah Valley games too. Uh. This is insane, dude.
- 53:59Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out how long their postseason ban is.
- 54:04Speaker 1: I think it's just this year. Well, yeah, because the
- 54:07Speaker 1: Whack is doing it right, And if they're gonna be
- 54:09Speaker 1: in the Big West next year, then you know, that's
- 54:12Speaker 1: a totally different thing. It's a different conference. So the
- 54:14Speaker 1: Whack is the NCAAA isn't banning them. The Whack is
- 54:19Speaker 1: banning them. So the Whack is banning them from the
- 54:22Speaker 1: Whack Tournament, which then means that because they can't win
- 54:26Speaker 1: the Whack Tournament, that means they can't get into the
- 54:28Speaker 1: NCAA Tournament. But it's the Whack that's banning them. So
- 54:32Speaker 1: if they're in the Big West next year, unless the
- 54:34Speaker 1: Big West decides to ban them, I don't think they're
- 54:37Speaker 1: gonna have a postseason ban. I think it's just this
- 54:40Speaker 1: season because again, it's their conference is doing it and
- 54:43Speaker 1: they won't be in the conference next year, so at
- 54:46Speaker 1: least that seems to be the case, unless they somehow
- 54:50Speaker 1: wind up not switching conferences. Dude, the WHACK should disban
- 54:53Speaker 1: man like Utah Valley leaving would would make the Whack
- 54:58Speaker 1: be a sixteen conference. Come on, dude, like this, Yeah,
- 55:02Speaker 1: the conference should just break up. Like some of the
- 55:04Speaker 1: teams belong to the Southland ut or Arlington I think
- 55:07Speaker 1: belongs to the Southland. Abone Christian probably belongs over it.
- 55:11Speaker 1: That would be easy to do. Take the Texas teams
- 55:14Speaker 1: in this conference, have them go to the have them
- 55:18Speaker 1: go to the Southland. Take the Utah teams of this
- 55:21Speaker 1: conference and have them go to the maybe the Mountain West,
- 55:25Speaker 1: and then have the or even the Big West, and
- 55:29Speaker 1: then have you know, or actually Utah wants to go
- 55:31Speaker 1: to the Big West, so yeah, actually have all the
- 55:34Speaker 1: rest of the teams go to the Big West. Then whatever,
- 55:37Speaker 1: maybe put a couple of them in the Mountain West.
- 55:38Speaker 1: I don't know, or some of them could go to
- 55:42Speaker 1: the West Coast Conference too, if you want to like
- 55:44Speaker 1: split them up a bit more. The MAC no, I
- 55:50Speaker 1: mean geographically, that makes no sense. And the MAC is
- 55:54Speaker 1: already getting Sacramento State, which makes the least sense possible.
- 56:00Speaker 1: I hate these conferences that are now spanning the entire country.
- 56:05Speaker 1: It's so fucking stupid. Sacramento State being in the MAC
- 56:09Speaker 1: is gonna make less than zero sense. It's so fucking stupid.
- 56:15Speaker 1: This show is gonna take forever today, Man Utah Tech.
- 56:18Speaker 1: I already gave you all all my plays, though, but
- 56:20Speaker 1: we are late into the slate here though. I'm gonna
- 56:23Speaker 1: skip most of these games here. I'm gonna talk about
- 56:25Speaker 1: the TV games. But Utah Tech at ut Arlington is interesting.
- 56:29Speaker 1: Utah Tech has won six games in a row. I'm
- 56:32Speaker 1: gonna tell you right now. They're a fake team though.
- 56:34Speaker 1: They're not as good as the record looks. I mean,
- 56:36Speaker 1: we just saw they were seven and a half point
- 56:38Speaker 1: underdogs at home against Utah Valley, So this Utah Tech
- 56:42Speaker 1: team is not what they look like. They just beat
- 56:44Speaker 1: Utah Valley and cal Baptist and back to back games.
- 56:47Speaker 1: Now they're going back out on the road after those
- 56:51Speaker 1: two wins were at home and they're playing a ut
- 56:53Speaker 1: Arlington team they just beat at home. They're one and
- 56:55Speaker 1: one against ut Arlington. They did lose at home, by
- 56:59Speaker 1: the way, they ut Arlington earlier, so they actually haven't
- 57:02Speaker 1: even played at UT Arlington this year, and they're in
- 57:05Speaker 1: a double letdown spot here and it's gonna be revenge
- 57:09Speaker 1: for UT Arlington, So I would have to lean towards
- 57:11Speaker 1: UT Arlington here. Ut r Arlington's lost five games in
- 57:16Speaker 1: a row, including a horrible loss in their last game
- 57:18Speaker 1: to Southern Utah where UT Arlington were eight and a
- 57:24Speaker 1: half point favorites in this one. You know, I talk
- 57:25Speaker 1: about that when a team loses as a huge favorite
- 57:28Speaker 1: like that, I think they tend to bounce back in
- 57:30Speaker 1: the next game. Now, yeah, they do have Utah Valley
- 57:33Speaker 1: and cal Baptist on deck themselves, but I don't think
- 57:36Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook anybody when they're on a six game
- 57:39Speaker 1: losing streak, five game losing streak, whatever this is. And
- 57:42Speaker 1: there's a reason why they're laying five and a half
- 57:44Speaker 1: points here. Man. Like I said, Utah Tech is not good,
- 57:48Speaker 1: and the odds makers are telling you UT Arlington is
- 57:50Speaker 1: actually the better team. They're telling you to ignore what
- 57:53Speaker 1: these records might be indicating to you, because the records
- 57:56Speaker 1: can be misleading. Man, The odds makers are telling you
- 57:59Speaker 1: what you need to know here. I would lay the
- 58:02Speaker 1: points to the UT Arlington in this one of I
- 58:03Speaker 1: was gonna play it somewhat close to a play for me,
- 58:08Speaker 1: to be honest, ut Arlington up from three and a
- 58:10Speaker 1: half to five. Here eighty eight percent of the tickets
- 58:12Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on them. It is
- 58:14Speaker 1: a low total though, in the one thirties. But yeah,
- 58:17Speaker 1: the only way that I could play that is to
- 58:19Speaker 1: lay the points, So you have lost a little bit
- 58:20Speaker 1: of value on it. But there's a reason why they're favored. Man, No,
- 58:32Speaker 1: the Whack is not going to join the UH the MAC,
- 58:36Speaker 1: but the Big Sky could actually take some of the
- 58:38Speaker 1: Whack teams too. Like it would be so easy to
- 58:40Speaker 1: just split the Whack up across like four different conferences
- 58:44Speaker 1: and then those conferences that accept those teams that only
- 58:47Speaker 1: have to be accepting like one or two teams each,
- 58:50Speaker 1: and those conferences wouldn't get that much bigger, Like it
- 58:52Speaker 1: seems like the obvious move. And to do it geographically,
- 58:57Speaker 1: and yeah, maybe some of the Utah teams could go
- 58:59Speaker 1: into the Big Sky like that would actually make it.
- 59:01Speaker 1: I think maybe like Southern Utah might have been in
- 59:04Speaker 1: the Big Sky before. Actually I don't know, like a
- 59:06Speaker 1: team like that, it makes sense for them to be
- 59:08Speaker 1: in the Big Sky, So I don't know. The whole
- 59:12Speaker 1: thing is like so stupid Alabama A and M and
- 59:16Speaker 1: Florida A and M. I will mention this game briefly,
- 59:18Speaker 1: even though it's a swack game, which is terrible. But
- 59:21Speaker 1: Alabama A and M just beat Arkansas Pine Bluff, which
- 59:25Speaker 1: I don't think is as good as it looks. But
- 59:26Speaker 1: Arkansas Pine Bluff is near the top of the conference.
- 59:29Speaker 1: And Alabama A and M does have Bethune Cookman on deck,
- 59:32Speaker 1: who is the best team in this conference, and they
- 59:35Speaker 1: already lost to them once, whereas they already beat Florida
- 59:38Speaker 1: A and M once, So there is the possibility they
- 59:40Speaker 1: overlook Florida A and M this time. I would lean
- 59:43Speaker 1: towards Florida A and M. There's also a reason why
- 59:45Speaker 1: Florida A and M is favored here. They're coming back
- 59:48Speaker 1: home after beating Alcorn State on the road. Not a
- 59:52Speaker 1: big deal there with that win. But people are gonna
- 59:54Speaker 1: look at this and see Alabama A and M has
- 59:56Speaker 1: the winning record, Florida A and M has the losing record.
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: Why would Florida A and M be favored here? While
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: the oddsmakers again are telling you there's not that much
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: of a gap between these two teams, and I think
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: the spot is better for Florida A and M. So
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: that would be my opinion. In that game, Florida A
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: and M. Alabama A and M is up to one
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, teetering on two. So you'll
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: actually be getting a couple of points with f A
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: and M if that's what you want. Don't f them though,
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: because they're my lean in that game. All right, what
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: else we got going on? SIU Edwardsville and Tennessee Tech.
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: I took a look at this game because SIU Edwardsville
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: just lost a four game win streak and they played
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: at Southeastern Missouri beat them by almost twenty points. That
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: was a huge win because both of these teams are
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: close to the top of the conference. And then they
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: lost in a close game by five to the top
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: team in the conference, U Team Martin, who is still
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: atop the conference, although tied with Simo now who just
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: beat U T. Martin the other night, which was a
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: game I forgot to turn on. I think it was
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: a little bit of a blowout though, But SAU Edwardsville
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: just had two huge games there. Man, Now they're playing
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: a Tennessee Tech team they did already beat at home,
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: although they only beat them by four, So that would
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: be a bit of a hesitation here because they think
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: they were probably favored by about six and a half
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: in that game. So I do talk about how when
- 1:01:19Speaker 1: a team at home didn't play that well and they
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: almost got caught, they will usually be focused when they
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: play that team again, But in this case, I don't
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: think so, although that would be one hesitation I have
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: with it. That plus the fact that Tennessee Tech is awful,
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: although that's not really a great enough reason, but sau
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: Edwardsville did just lose a four game win Street. They
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: just played two big games. Like I said, they could
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: be hungover coming into this one for both of those reasons,
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: and they got Tennessee State on deck, which is a
- 1:01:47Speaker 1: bigger game, although they actually beat Tennessee State already, but yeah,
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: I mean that's a bigger game too, because Tennessee State
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: is close to the top of the conference too. Edwardsville
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: has actually played really well in the conference this year.
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: They are definitely one of the top teams in this conference.
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: They've been really competitive and won a bunch of games
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: against the best teams in the conference. So although they've
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: lost both games to UT Martin, but both in competitive games,
- 1:02:14Speaker 1: so they're not a bad team. But this is not
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: a good spot for them. And the line is pretty
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: telling in this game, by the way, with SAU edwards
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: only laying one and a half here where Tennessee Tech
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: has the considerably worst record so public if they look
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: at this game, they're gonna think it's so easy to
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: play SIU Edwardsville here, But that's not the way that
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: I would look at this game. Tennessee Tech. They bounced
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: back from that loss, unfortunate loss because I gave them
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: out against Morehead State and they almost came back to cover,
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: but they didn't. They ended their two game losing seagal
- 1:02:47Speaker 1: to win over Southern Indiana, which is not a big
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: win or anything. But now that they won that game
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: and they're coming back home here and they lost their
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: last home game in disgusting fashion to a bad Eastern
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: Illinois team, I think they should be focused in this
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: game man. And again, they did already lose to SAU
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: Edwardsville once, although I know it was close. They did
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: play them close. But the spot to me is definitely
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: worse for SIU Edwardsville here, so I would lean towards
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: Tennessee Tech, SAU and SIU Edwardsville to drop from two
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: and a half to two here. The money looks like
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: it is going to start coming in on Tennessee Tech.
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: I would agree with that side. And that one all right.
- 1:03:26Speaker 1: ESPN two at nine pm has Tulane at North Texas.
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: Both these teams are actually coming off upsets. Tulane got
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: the job done for us here on the show. I
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: think that was my only play. The other day they
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: upset UAB on Sunday, I believe is that one that
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: was That was a nice win for Tulane. Nice upset
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: Winever UAB. Now they got a second second straight road game,
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: they got to play North Texas. They did lose by
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: the way at home already to North Texas, so Tulane
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: might show up for this game. But they are still
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: in kind of a letdown spot here man, So there
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: are conflicting factors coming into this game for them. On
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: North Texas is starting to play a little bit better.
- 1:04:04Speaker 1: They're on a three game win stream, but they just
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: beat Memphis and then they turned around in the upset
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: Temple on the road, so they're coming off two pretty
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: big wins as well, and with the fact that they
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: already beat Tulane, they might not totally pay attention to
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: Tulane here. Man, they got FAU on deck Florida Atlantic,
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: who still has kind of name recognition there, even though
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: they have not been playing well as of late. That
- 1:04:25Speaker 1: still might be maybe because for a little bit of
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: a look ahead there, and you know, I mean again
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: Florida Atlanta, again, they just have that name recognition. I
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: don't think these teams have played this year though. North
- 1:04:37Speaker 1: Texas NFAU. I mean, so that's not going to be
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: a second meeting. This game is and again it would
- 1:04:43Speaker 1: be Tulane that's actually in the revenge spot there. So
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: even though Tulane is actually coming off the bigger upset,
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: I actually probably lean towards them in this game. North
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: Texas is lane six and a half, and you know,
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: I don't like laying points with North Texas because they
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: play really slow. They don't score well. Fifty percent of
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: the tickets and eighty five percent of the cash on
- 1:05:03Speaker 1: Tulane total did go up a little bit, but it's
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: still in the one thirties. It's a low total, which
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: is expected slightly for me to Tulane, Cal State Northridge
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: at you See Santa Barbara is an addressing game as well.
- 1:05:18Speaker 1: Northridge has won five games in a row and they
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: beat Hawaii in their last game, which is a nice
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: win against the top team in the conference here in
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: the Big West. Speaking of the Big West. Now, I
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook Santa Barbara though, because they're
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: also a really good team in this conference. They did
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: already beat them earlier this year though. Believe it or not,
- 1:05:37Speaker 1: Northridge beat Santa Barbara at home by nine points earlier
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: this year, and they could be in a letdown spot
- 1:05:43Speaker 1: off of Hawaii. So all that to keep in mind
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: here you see Santa Barbara. They just had an ugly
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: loss at cal Paly, so that's not a great loss
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: for them. So I do kind of expect them to
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: be bounce back here, especially because they lost to Northridge
- 1:05:58Speaker 1: earlier this year. They do have on deck, but I
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: don't think that's enough. So I like Santa Barbara in
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: this one. The initial line move dropped them from four
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: and a half to three and a half. I would
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: lay the points with U see Santa Barbara in that
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: game if I was gonna play it. What other games
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: we got? We have a Big Sky has a televised
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: game on espn U at nine pm between Idaho and
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: Portland State could maybe be an interesting game of the
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: Idaho's not playing well recently, they've kind of fallen off
- 1:06:27Speaker 1: a bit. Portland State is still sitting atop the Big
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: Sky here and they are the best defensive team in
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: the Big Sky. Idaho bounce back from a three game
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: losing streak nicely with a blowout win over an Idaho
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: State team it's not been playing well at all. Nice
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: rivalry win though for Idaho. That could be a pretty
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: satisfying win. And that was revenge actually because Idaho had
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: actually lost to Idaho State earlier this year. But they
- 1:06:53Speaker 1: did also end a losing streak for Idaho. And I
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook Portland State because they are
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: sitting atop the conference and Portland State already went into
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: Idaho and beat Idaho. So there are some reasons why
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: I think Idaho should still show up in this one.
- 1:07:09Speaker 1: Portland State. They just lost a four game win streak. Man,
- 1:07:14Speaker 1: you know I talk about sometimes that will hang you
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: over when you lose a longer win streak into the
- 1:07:18Speaker 1: next game, they lost to a Northern Colorado team that
- 1:07:22Speaker 1: is moving their way up, and like I said, they
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: are not to be overlooked in this conference in Northern
- 1:07:27Speaker 1: Colorado Portland State. Coming out of that game, they're coming
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: back home here now they do have Eastern Washington deck.
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: I don't know that that's really going to be a
- 1:07:36Speaker 1: look ahead, although they played a pretty competitive game against
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: them on the road the last time. This is a
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: tough handicap. I don't love the game by any means,
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: but I guess I would lean to taking the points
- 1:07:46Speaker 1: of Idaho. The money does seem to agree with that.
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: Portland State down from four and a half to four
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: here and again, you know, I don't like laying a
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: lot of points. It's not a lot of points, so
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: I don't love laying points in general with a team
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: that's way better on defense offense. Total's pretty low in
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: the one forties fifty seven percent of tickets around Portland State,
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: but ninety three percent of the cash on Idaho only
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: to Idaho. Slightly there, let me see, ken bum doesn't
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: have Idaho that bad. They're kind of a mid tier team,
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: although they are really lucky, but they also play really
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: really slow, and they are a balanced team. Portland State
- 1:08:23Speaker 1: is the more imbalanced team. Like I said, they're just
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: way way better on defense than offense, and they're a
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: pretty lucky team as well. So I don't like laying
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: points to the team that just can't score like that,
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: you know what I mean, in a game that might
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: wind up being slow, even though Portland State's a little
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: bit more of a mid tempo team there Cal State
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: Bakersfield and you See Riverside. The only interesting thing about
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: this is that cal State Bakersfield they've lost a bunch
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: of games in a row. They've lost like eight games
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: in a row, I think nine games in a row.
- 1:08:55Speaker 1: The last time they won was them beating UC Riverside.
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: But just kind of areas if they started a losing
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: streak right after beating Riverside, now they could end the
- 1:09:05Speaker 1: losing streak by beating You See Riverside. That would be
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: pretty ridiculous. But that's the only thing that I thought
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: was funny about this. Like, I don't really have an
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: opinion on this game. Three road games in four games
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: for Bakersfield isn't that easy, though, They're coming up playing Hawaii,
- 1:09:20Speaker 1: but the game wasn't really close. You see Riverside is
- 1:09:23Speaker 1: coming up actually a closer couple of games against Santa
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: Barbara and you see San Diego. You see Santa Barbara
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: and you see San Diego, So they're coming out with
- 1:09:33Speaker 1: two bigger games. They're actually on a five game losing
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: streak too, so one of these teams is gonna break
- 1:09:39Speaker 1: their losing streak. But I probably would take the points
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: with Bakersfield in that one. I think the spot for
- 1:09:45Speaker 1: Riverside's a little bit worse, but they have gone up
- 1:09:47Speaker 1: from a five point favorite to a six and a
- 1:09:49Speaker 1: half point favorite, so I guess there is some reason
- 1:09:52Speaker 1: why they've moved like that on the line, but I
- 1:09:54Speaker 1: don't know, all right, And then yeah, I guess that's
- 1:10:01Speaker 1: about it. As far as the games. I was gonna
- 1:10:02Speaker 1: talk about cal Poly in Hawaii's a little bit interessing
- 1:10:05Speaker 1: because cal Pauly is coming up that win over you
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: see Santa Barbara and they beat you see Irvine in
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: the game before that too, so they're having to play
- 1:10:13Speaker 1: three huge games in a row. Those first two games
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: are at home, and they pulled off big wins against
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: two of the top teams. In the conference. Now they're
- 1:10:20Speaker 1: gonna go to Hawaii. That's not gonna be that easy
- 1:10:24Speaker 1: for them, man, even though Hawaii did kind of embarrass
- 1:10:27Speaker 1: them by twenty points on their own floor earlier this
- 1:10:30Speaker 1: season at cal Poly, the travel spot plus it being
- 1:10:34Speaker 1: kind of a letdown spot, doesn't look that great to
- 1:10:36Speaker 1: me for cal Poly for Hawaii. Here. Hawaii's coming off
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: a loss to cal State Northridge coming back home from
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: that that did end a winning stream for them though,
- 1:10:45Speaker 1: and they do have you see Santa Barbara deck, which
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: is gonna be a bigger game, especially because Hawaii actually
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: lost to them on the road, so there is the
- 1:10:53Speaker 1: chance Hawaii is looking ahead to that game. So there's
- 1:10:56Speaker 1: a lot going on in this game. And that lost
- 1:10:58Speaker 1: to north Ridge. North Ridge is only one game behind Hawaii,
- 1:11:01Speaker 1: so that game, you know, they might not be in
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: a bounced back spot off a game like that, Hawaii
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: might not be you know what I mean, because that
- 1:11:08Speaker 1: was a big game. So you could make the argument
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: Hawaii is actually in a sandwich spot here and might
- 1:11:13Speaker 1: overlook a team they already clobbered on the road. But
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: the spot for cal Poly just doesn't look good to
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: me either. I think it's kind of a letdown spot.
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: They have to travel to the Islands for this, but
- 1:11:25Speaker 1: the money is coming in on cal Poly. For what
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: it's worth, Hawaii done for twelve to eleven here sixty
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets, ninety nine percent of the
- 1:11:32Speaker 1: cash on cal Paly. I won't disagree with taking the
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: points really in that one, but you know there's no
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: way that I could get there with either side in
- 1:11:42Speaker 1: that game. All Right, we're gonna talk about NBA in
- 1:11:44Speaker 1: a second. I'm gonna take a break and be right back.
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: I don't have any plays in the NBA today though,
- 1:11:48Speaker 1: but there are ten NBA games. I'll let you guys
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: peruse the the board here. Let me see if I can
- 1:11:56Speaker 1: get the whole thing on on the screen here studying
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: the market. I'll be right back. Yah, alright, NBA. NBA
- 1:13:00Speaker 1: resumes after the All Star break. And now I know
- 1:13:03Speaker 1: you've heard me say this before, but after a break
- 1:13:06Speaker 1: like this, the way that I do the handicap me
- 1:13:08Speaker 1: is I like to look to be on teams that
- 1:13:11Speaker 1: went into the break on a bad note, because if
- 1:13:14Speaker 1: they went into the break on like, especially on a
- 1:13:16Speaker 1: big losing streak, that break can like disrupt that bad momentum.
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: And on the other side of things, I like to
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: fade teams that went into the break on a good
- 1:13:24Speaker 1: note because they All Star break can disrupt that momentum.
- 1:13:28Speaker 1: It could disrupt their good momentum. So those are the
- 1:13:31Speaker 1: things I like to look at. Looking at this board here,
- 1:13:37Speaker 1: you know, I just didn't see anything that really was
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: strong enough for me here. We started out with Houston
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: at Charlotte, and one of the angles that I saw
- 1:13:47Speaker 1: in this game is this is a revenge game for Houston,
- 1:13:50Speaker 1: quick revenge because Houston just lost at home to Charlotte
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: by ten points back on February fifth, So I could
- 1:13:56Speaker 1: see Houston coming out with some motivation. And they also
- 1:14:00Speaker 1: went into the All Star break on kind of a
- 1:14:02Speaker 1: bad note, loosely to the Clippers. So some things that
- 1:14:06Speaker 1: I do like about Houston here. They might take Charlotte
- 1:14:08Speaker 1: seriously this time and fix what went wrong in that
- 1:14:11Speaker 1: other game. But I worry a little bit because they
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: do have the Knicks on deck in a huge TV
- 1:14:16Speaker 1: game on Saturday, so that is maybe one concern. And
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: then I do look at the Charlotte side. Charlotte, you know,
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: they went into the break on a decent note. I
- 1:14:25Speaker 1: guess beating Atlanta if Charlotte had gone in on a
- 1:14:29Speaker 1: huge win streak and they had it lost since January.
- 1:14:33Speaker 1: But unfortunately they did lose to Detroit in here. If
- 1:14:36Speaker 1: that loss to Detroit hadn't happened, I'd probably give you
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: Houston as a play here because Charlotte would have had
- 1:14:42Speaker 1: their huge wind streak totally disrupted by the All Star Game.
- 1:14:46Speaker 1: But I think it was good for Charlotte to actually
- 1:14:47Speaker 1: take a loss almost right before the All Star break
- 1:14:51Speaker 1: because that kind of helped disrupt that momentum for them.
- 1:14:56Speaker 1: Atlanta did still cover. That was one of my wins
- 1:14:58Speaker 1: on the show. Actually, Atlanta. They somehow came back and
- 1:15:01Speaker 1: covered that game. But overall, yes, I still like Houston
- 1:15:04Speaker 1: in this game. But I think Charlotte is still going
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: to show up for this game too. Man, the money
- 1:15:09Speaker 1: is coming in on Charlotte. I don't know why I
- 1:15:11Speaker 1: would lean to Houston in this one. Houston's up to
- 1:15:14Speaker 1: a four and a half point favorite, though, so I
- 1:15:16Speaker 1: guess we do have to look at who's actually playing
- 1:15:19Speaker 1: in this game. Why they move from two to four
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: and a half here. The NBA has all these wild
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: line moves. Man fifty eight percent of the tickets are
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: on Houston seventy five percent of the cash on the Hornets.
- 1:15:29Speaker 1: So there is like a pros versus Joe split here,
- 1:15:32Speaker 1: leaning towards the Hornets. I don't agree with it, though.
- 1:15:35Speaker 1: I would play Houston if I was gonna play it,
- 1:15:37Speaker 1: but I'm not. But let me see. Yeah, I mean White,
- 1:15:45Speaker 1: I don't think he's even played yet for Charlotte. They
- 1:15:47Speaker 1: got him from Chicago right near the All Star Bray,
- 1:15:49Speaker 1: but I don't even think he's played yet for them.
- 1:15:51Speaker 1: So and then Diabaate Harvey pronounce his name. He is
- 1:15:56Speaker 1: suspended and so is Bridges for I don't even know
- 1:15:59Speaker 1: what it was it was. Were they involved in that brawl? Yeah,
- 1:16:02Speaker 1: I think it was that brawl in that Detroit game.
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: That was another reason I forgot to even mention that
- 1:16:07Speaker 1: that was another reason to fade Charlotte in that game
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: against Atlanta because Charlotte in that Detroit game, they had
- 1:16:13Speaker 1: that brawl, and I think these two guys are involved
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: in it, and that's why they're suspended until February twenty four.
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: So that's probably why Houston's a little bit of a
- 1:16:22Speaker 1: bigger favorite. Here Man and Houston. Yeah, they lost Steven Adams.
- 1:16:25Speaker 1: I hadn't really talked about that. He's having ankle surgery,
- 1:16:28Speaker 1: but that's not really I mean, he's not a player
- 1:16:30Speaker 1: that plays that much at this point. He's been a
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: staple in the NBA for a long time, but you know,
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: he definitely provides you some big man minutes off the
- 1:16:39Speaker 1: bench and stuff. But yeah, the reason why the line
- 1:16:41Speaker 1: moved is because of all these mostly because of the
- 1:16:44Speaker 1: suspensions on the Charlotte side, So that's why the line
- 1:16:47Speaker 1: did move like that. But those guys missed the last
- 1:16:50Speaker 1: game as well. They missed that game against Atlanta, So
- 1:16:53Speaker 1: if they were gonna step up for a game, you know,
- 1:16:55Speaker 1: with those guys suspended, it it would have been that
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: game more so. But then again, you're not going to
- 1:17:00Speaker 1: overlook Houston either, So again you can see why I
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: don't want to play this game. But if I was
- 1:17:04Speaker 1: going to, I would lean towards the Rockets. Brooklyn at Cleveland.
- 1:17:08Speaker 1: This is not a good game, and I don't love
- 1:17:12Speaker 1: the fact that Cleveland is sneaking up in the standings now,
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: and they're definitely one of the top teams in the
- 1:17:16Speaker 1: Eastern Conference. As I've been saying all along, they are,
- 1:17:19Speaker 1: But of course they got James Harden and now everybody's
- 1:17:23Speaker 1: all hyped about Cleveland. Maybe they're over hyped now. Brooklyn
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: went into the All Star Break with a pretty ugly
- 1:17:29Speaker 1: lost Indiana, which I believe that was a loss here
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: on the show too. For me, that was horrible. I
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: don't know how Indiana or excuse me, yeah, I don't
- 1:17:39Speaker 1: know how Indiana won again if they pulled off an
- 1:17:41Speaker 1: overtime upset of the Knicks the night before that, they
- 1:17:46Speaker 1: were on a back to back plus in a major
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: letdown spot and they still beat Brooklyn. Don't get it, man,
- 1:17:53Speaker 1: But Brooklyn coming off that loss, they've had the All
- 1:17:56Speaker 1: Star Break to kind of, you know, start working on
- 1:18:01Speaker 1: some things. I expect them to at least show up
- 1:18:03Speaker 1: in this game, and you know they're gonna be a
- 1:18:04Speaker 1: massive underdog in this game. Cleveland's probably overvalued at this
- 1:18:08Speaker 1: point because of Hard and Cleveland. And they went into
- 1:18:11Speaker 1: the break on a huge win streak. They had a
- 1:18:13Speaker 1: five game win streak going into the break, and they
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: have that hot Charlotte team on deck tomorrow and then
- 1:18:19Speaker 1: on Sunday they got a TV game against Oklahoma City.
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: Then they got a Peacock game against the Knicks after that,
- 1:18:25Speaker 1: so all of their upcoming games are bigger than this
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: Brooklyn game. You could make the argument this is a
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: Sandwich spot man, because they went into the break on
- 1:18:33Speaker 1: a winning note, but it was crushing Washington. So if
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: they had gone into the break on that huge comeback
- 1:18:40Speaker 1: win over Denver, I'd probably be giving you Brooklyn as
- 1:18:43Speaker 1: a play here. I do like Brooklyn here. I do
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: think that the All Star break could disrupt the Cavs
- 1:18:48Speaker 1: momentum there, so yeah, Still, overall, the only way that
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: I'd play this game is to take the points with
- 1:18:53Speaker 1: the nets fifty percent of tickets, fifty eight percent of
- 1:18:56Speaker 1: the cash on them, and they're up to sixteen and
- 1:18:58Speaker 1: a half win underdogs. Okay, I think it's too many points.
- 1:19:04Speaker 1: I would lean to the nets in that one. Cleveland
- 1:19:06Speaker 1: pretty major look ahead there, and their momentum could be
- 1:19:09Speaker 1: disrupted by the All Star break, so I do like that.
- 1:19:14Speaker 1: I probably like that one better than Houston Atlanta at
- 1:19:18Speaker 1: Philadelphia the seventies six ers. Atlanta is coming into this
- 1:19:23Speaker 1: game on a three game losing streak, so I think
- 1:19:26Speaker 1: that is actually good for them to have had the
- 1:19:28Speaker 1: All Star break because it can break they're losing momentum.
- 1:19:32Speaker 1: Now they can come into this game with some focus.
- 1:19:34Speaker 1: Playing the seventy six ers here, they should get up
- 1:19:37Speaker 1: for a game against Philly. Now, Philly in this game, though,
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: they're gonna be without their two best players now because
- 1:19:42Speaker 1: Paul George is suspended for PDS or something or whatever.
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: I don't even wasn't that, I forget what it was.
- 1:19:49Speaker 1: And Joel Embiid is also gonna miss this game. Philadelphia
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: went into the break on a really bad note too.
- 1:19:55Speaker 1: They got absolutely embarrassed by the Knicks going into the break,
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: and that was a weird spot because they were returning
- 1:20:00Speaker 1: home from a road trip going into the All Star Breaking.
- 1:20:03Speaker 1: They just had a real bad game there against the Knicks.
- 1:20:06Speaker 1: So you could see maybe Philadelphia showing up here in
- 1:20:09Speaker 1: this game, and they probably know they have to play harder.
- 1:20:11Speaker 1: With Embiid and George both not playing for them, This
- 1:20:17Speaker 1: game is a difficult handicap. I think it's kind of
- 1:20:19Speaker 1: a positive spot for both teams in a way. All
- 1:20:22Speaker 1: the money looks like it's coming in on the Hawks now.
- 1:20:25Speaker 1: The Sixers dropped from four and a half to one,
- 1:20:27Speaker 1: but you know that was mostly because of Embiid. Being
- 1:20:29Speaker 1: out like I think it was going to be four
- 1:20:31Speaker 1: and a half if he was gonna play, and his outage,
- 1:20:34Speaker 1: I guess affects the line that much, even though he
- 1:20:36Speaker 1: has a bad knee. Uh, sixty percent of tickets on
- 1:20:39Speaker 1: the Sixers, seventy percent of the cash on the Hawks.
- 1:20:42Speaker 1: I don't think i'd want to play the Hawks when
- 1:20:43Speaker 1: they're down to a one point dog. Now, I think
- 1:20:46Speaker 1: you've kind of lost the line value on that. But
- 1:20:48Speaker 1: the money is saying the Hawks in that game. So
- 1:20:52Speaker 1: there's the information for you on that game. Indiana at Washington.
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: Indiana went into the All Star Break with two wins
- 1:20:59Speaker 1: in a row. All Star break maybe could disrupt their
- 1:21:02Speaker 1: momentum a little bit. Maybe they won't really take Washington seriously,
- 1:21:06Speaker 1: as Washington has been one of the absolute worst teams
- 1:21:09Speaker 1: in the NBA, probably even worse than Indiana. They went
- 1:21:12Speaker 1: into the break on a bad note, losing three games
- 1:21:15Speaker 1: in a row. So again I will say that All
- 1:21:17Speaker 1: Star break might actually help them break that momentum where
- 1:21:21Speaker 1: it might hurt Indiana because it might break Indiana's positive momentum.
- 1:21:25Speaker 1: So just that alone, I would lean to Washington. Here.
- 1:21:29Speaker 1: Pacers are up from one and a half to two
- 1:21:31Speaker 1: and a half here, fifty three percent of tickets on them,
- 1:21:34Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on the Wizards. So
- 1:21:37Speaker 1: it looks like there is kind of a big ticket
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: versus cash disparity there, with the cash indicating on the Wizards.
- 1:21:44Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that. Like I said, Amazon Prime
- 1:21:49Speaker 1: as a doubleheader here, the biggest game of the night
- 1:21:51Speaker 1: is Detroit at the Knicks. This is a huge game,
- 1:21:54Speaker 1: and this is a bit of a quick revenge spot
- 1:21:58Speaker 1: for the Knicks because Detroit. Wait, actually, yeah, Detroit has
- 1:22:01Speaker 1: beaten the Knicks I think twice recently. They beat the
- 1:22:04Speaker 1: Knicks on February sixth at home by thirty eight points.
- 1:22:08Speaker 1: So you got to think the Knicks are going to
- 1:22:10Speaker 1: show up for this game for that reason, and Detroit
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: went into the break on a good note. They won
- 1:22:14Speaker 1: three games in a row, so the break could disrupt
- 1:22:17Speaker 1: their momentum a bit. The Knicks probably gonna show up
- 1:22:21Speaker 1: focus for this one man and the game before that,
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: Detroit also at home beat the Knicks by thirty plus again,
- 1:22:27Speaker 1: so Detroit the last two times both in Detroit have
- 1:22:31Speaker 1: beaten the Knicks by thirty plus in both of those games,
- 1:22:35Speaker 1: and the public's probably gonna look at this and think,
- 1:22:38Speaker 1: oh my god, And I'm getting points with Detroit here
- 1:22:42Speaker 1: with the better record and the team that destroyed the
- 1:22:44Speaker 1: Knicks twice in a row. I think the public's gonna
- 1:22:46Speaker 1: want the Knicks in this game, and I would not
- 1:22:48Speaker 1: agree with that. The Knicks. They did go into the
- 1:22:51Speaker 1: break on a good note, although it wasn't a win streak.
- 1:22:55Speaker 1: They had a huge win over the six Ers just
- 1:22:57Speaker 1: absolutely destroyed them. So I don't quite know if I
- 1:23:01Speaker 1: want to get there with the Knicks in this one.
- 1:23:03Speaker 1: But the only way that I could look at this
- 1:23:04Speaker 1: game is to play the Knicks, though. The Knicks are
- 1:23:08Speaker 1: out from two and a half to four and a
- 1:23:09Speaker 1: half though, so there might be some personnel change here
- 1:23:13Speaker 1: that we got to look at. Sixty percent of ticket,
- 1:23:15Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the cash on the Knicks. I
- 1:23:19Speaker 1: definitely agree with the Knicks. Like I said, let's see
- 1:23:22Speaker 1: who's in and who's out here. Annonnobe has been in
- 1:23:25Speaker 1: and out of the lineup for the Knicks. He's a
- 1:23:26Speaker 1: game time decision here. He's questionable. I think he's gonna play.
- 1:23:32Speaker 1: I mean, it's a big game. They've had a lot
- 1:23:33Speaker 1: of rest, so I expect that he will play, and
- 1:23:36Speaker 1: then Detroit does have a couple of suspensions, but I
- 1:23:39Speaker 1: think it's probably why that line did move a little
- 1:23:42Speaker 1: bit like that. Duran not Jaron Durray and Jalen. Duran
- 1:23:47Speaker 1: and Stuart are both suspended for that brawl I just
- 1:23:50Speaker 1: mentioned with the Charlotte Hornets, so those guys are suspended
- 1:23:55Speaker 1: for different time periods too. But at any rate, I
- 1:23:59Speaker 1: do like the Knicks in that game, though I would
- 1:24:01Speaker 1: still lay it with the Knicks if I was gonna
- 1:24:03Speaker 1: play the game, mostly because of that double revenge angle
- 1:24:08Speaker 1: there where they got absolutely embarrassed the last two times
- 1:24:11Speaker 1: A boy Detroit, and they're gonna want to give them
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: some payback in a TV game man, and they'll have
- 1:24:17Speaker 1: the adjustments to make most likely, although it didn't work
- 1:24:20Speaker 1: the last time they played them. Although I think I
- 1:24:24Speaker 1: did like Detroit in that game, I don't remember exactly why.
- 1:24:26Speaker 1: Something about the spot I did lean to Detroit The
- 1:24:29Speaker 1: last time they played the Knicks Toronto at Chicago. Toronto
- 1:24:33Speaker 1: lost to Detroit going into the All Star break kind
- 1:24:37Speaker 1: of a blowout loss. So Toronto might use that break
- 1:24:39Speaker 1: to fix some things that Toronto is actually a better
- 1:24:42Speaker 1: road team than home team, I believe, so Toronto, you
- 1:24:45Speaker 1: actually are better off playing them on the road because
- 1:24:49Speaker 1: you're usually gonna get them as a decent underdog for
- 1:24:52Speaker 1: the most part, although in this case they're not an
- 1:24:54Speaker 1: underdog their favorite because they're playing a pretty bad bulls
- 1:24:57Speaker 1: team here who unloaded some of their players at the
- 1:25:00Speaker 1: All Star Break. And I'm guessing that Giddy is still
- 1:25:02Speaker 1: out here, but I'm not sure. But Chicago did go
- 1:25:05Speaker 1: into the All Star Break on a six game losing streak,
- 1:25:08Speaker 1: so you know that that might help them. Actually having
- 1:25:11Speaker 1: the All Star break might help break that momentum. I
- 1:25:14Speaker 1: like playing on teams that went into the break on
- 1:25:16Speaker 1: a bad note, man, And most of those games were
- 1:25:18Speaker 1: on the road, and now they're back at home and
- 1:25:20Speaker 1: getting points. And by the way, one of those games
- 1:25:23Speaker 1: was lost to Toronto on the road at Toronto, So
- 1:25:26Speaker 1: Chicago might have a little bit of a you know,
- 1:25:29Speaker 1: zig zag aspect to them here. They might adjust and
- 1:25:32Speaker 1: play better here against Toronto this time. Josh Giddy is
- 1:25:37Speaker 1: a game time decision to me. The number makes it
- 1:25:39Speaker 1: look like he's not gonna play, though he has listed
- 1:25:42Speaker 1: as questionable, so maybe he will play. And you know,
- 1:25:46Speaker 1: I don't like playing on teams when their star player
- 1:25:49Speaker 1: comes back though, because you know I talk about the
- 1:25:51Speaker 1: reverse injured player theory all the time, where the line
- 1:25:53Speaker 1: will move usually too much towards that team. But it
- 1:25:58Speaker 1: remains to be seen. If he's gonna play, and then
- 1:26:00Speaker 1: a Smith is also listed, he's going to play, He's probable.
- 1:26:05Speaker 1: We'll see what happens in this game. For the Bulls man,
- 1:26:07Speaker 1: it's a different look Bulls team now, but I think
- 1:26:12Speaker 1: the only way that I would be able to look
- 1:26:13Speaker 1: at this game is to lean towards the Bulls. Here
- 1:26:15Speaker 1: though Toronto looks like they are getting the money though
- 1:26:18Speaker 1: they're up to a six point favorite, which based on
- 1:26:20Speaker 1: this line, it almost makes it look like Giddy is
- 1:26:22Speaker 1: not going to play though fifty eight percent of the
- 1:26:25Speaker 1: ticket seventy two of the cash on the Raptors. If
- 1:26:29Speaker 1: I was going to play the Bulls, I would probably
- 1:26:30Speaker 1: do it, and I might do it soon because I
- 1:26:34Speaker 1: think if it is announced that Giddy is going to play,
- 1:26:36Speaker 1: that line is going to drop towards the Bulls, so
- 1:26:39Speaker 1: you'll probably get more value on them closer to now.
- 1:26:44Speaker 1: I don't want to do it, but I would lean
- 1:26:45Speaker 1: to taking the points to the Bulls in that one.
- 1:26:47Speaker 1: Team like the Raptors, even though they are pretty good
- 1:26:50Speaker 1: on the road, laying that many points in a spot
- 1:26:52Speaker 1: like that on the road, I don't know if I
- 1:26:54Speaker 1: really love that idea. Phoenix at San Antonio is a
- 1:26:57Speaker 1: pretty good game. This game, I think is going to
- 1:26:59Speaker 1: be a fairly clean handicap. I don't think there are
- 1:27:01Speaker 1: that many injuries at this point. Phoenix went into the
- 1:27:04Speaker 1: All Star Break losing badly to Oklahoma City. I think
- 1:27:09Speaker 1: both teams will show up for this, but San Antonio
- 1:27:11Speaker 1: did go into the break on a big win streak
- 1:27:14Speaker 1: and then went into the break on a six game
- 1:27:16Speaker 1: winning streak, so that break might disrupt San Antonio's momentum
- 1:27:21Speaker 1: coming into this one. So I would probably have to
- 1:27:23Speaker 1: lean to Phoenix in this one. Phoenix, of course, did
- 1:27:26Speaker 1: go into the break on a bad note. The Spurs
- 1:27:28Speaker 1: are laying seven and a half here, eighty three percent
- 1:27:31Speaker 1: of the tickets and cash on the Spurs. They will
- 1:27:34Speaker 1: be a public side here. The Suns are definitely a
- 1:27:38Speaker 1: decent team, man, They're a competitive team. I believe they
- 1:27:41Speaker 1: do have Devin Booker back at this point. I don't
- 1:27:43Speaker 1: think we have to worry about injuries a whole lot
- 1:27:45Speaker 1: in this game. I think pretty much all the best
- 1:27:47Speaker 1: players will be playing in this one. I would take
- 1:27:50Speaker 1: the points with Phoenix in that one. Let me just
- 1:27:53Speaker 1: make sure of that. Yeah, there's not a whole lot
- 1:27:59Speaker 1: going on as far as who's out in this game.
- 1:28:01Speaker 1: Brooks is suspended for Phoenix. There are a lot of
- 1:28:04Speaker 1: guys suspended. Man. The second of the Amazon Prime doubleheader
- 1:28:09Speaker 1: is my Boston Celtics at Golden State. You know, I
- 1:28:14Speaker 1: don't love these East Coast teams going out to the
- 1:28:16Speaker 1: Pacific Coast for a late night game because they have
- 1:28:18Speaker 1: to shift their biological clock. But with the extra time
- 1:28:22Speaker 1: off of the break, maybe the Celtics will have more
- 1:28:26Speaker 1: time to get out there. I don't know. The Celtics
- 1:28:29Speaker 1: did go into the break on a blowout win against Chicago.
- 1:28:32Speaker 1: They went into the break on a pretty good note,
- 1:28:34Speaker 1: but they did They at least did not go into
- 1:28:36Speaker 1: the All Star Break on a seven game win streak
- 1:28:39Speaker 1: or whatever, because they did lose to the Knicks in
- 1:28:41Speaker 1: the middle there, so that might help them. You know,
- 1:28:44Speaker 1: they only went into the break on a one game
- 1:28:46Speaker 1: win streak, so at least there is that they're playing
- 1:28:49Speaker 1: Golden State here. Of course, Golden State. They've been a
- 1:28:53Speaker 1: mediocre team this year. They're an aging team, They've had
- 1:28:55Speaker 1: a lot of injuries to deal with. They went into
- 1:28:57Speaker 1: the break on a losing note against San Antonio. So
- 1:29:02Speaker 1: I think you're gonna get an effort out of the
- 1:29:03Speaker 1: Warriors here. But the Warriors also have a lot of
- 1:29:06Speaker 1: guys injured. Man, we know Butler's out for the season.
- 1:29:09Speaker 1: Steph Curry is still not going to play tonight. Porzingis
- 1:29:13Speaker 1: might play against his old team, the Celtics, but even
- 1:29:15Speaker 1: if he does, I don't know how effective he's going
- 1:29:17Speaker 1: to be. So you're looking at a pretty decimated Warrior
- 1:29:20Speaker 1: team here, which is why the Celtics are a five
- 1:29:22Speaker 1: and a half point favorite now, up from three and
- 1:29:25Speaker 1: a half. I think some of that move might be
- 1:29:26Speaker 1: because maybe they were thinking Curry might play here, and
- 1:29:30Speaker 1: it looks like he is definitely not playing now. Eighty
- 1:29:33Speaker 1: one percent of the tickets, eighty four percent of the
- 1:29:34Speaker 1: cash on the Celtics. I mean, I would probably take
- 1:29:38Speaker 1: the points of the Warriors if I was gonna play
- 1:29:41Speaker 1: that game. I don't know. I know the Celtics pretty well,
- 1:29:44Speaker 1: and I try to gauge in and based on the
- 1:29:47Speaker 1: fact that they did win going to the All Star Break.
- 1:29:49Speaker 1: The Warriors lost going to the All Star Break. It
- 1:29:51Speaker 1: looks like maybe too heavy of a line on the
- 1:29:53Speaker 1: Celtics there, maybe over adjusted to all the injuries. That's
- 1:29:58Speaker 1: probably the way I would look at that game, Orlando
- 1:30:00Speaker 1: at Sacramento. Orlando then went into the break on a
- 1:30:05Speaker 1: zigzag loss to Milwaukee. After they've beaten Milwaukee the game
- 1:30:09Speaker 1: prior to that. Maybe the break will help them a
- 1:30:13Speaker 1: little bit. But they're playing Sacramento here, man, Like, how
- 1:30:16Speaker 1: up could you get for the Kings when the Kings
- 1:30:19Speaker 1: just announced that Sibonus and Levine are both being shut
- 1:30:22Speaker 1: down for the season, So the Kings now are down
- 1:30:26Speaker 1: their best two players for the remainder of the season. However,
- 1:30:30Speaker 1: knowing that might actually help the Kings now, because you
- 1:30:34Speaker 1: never like to have that question mark hanging over your heads,
- 1:30:36Speaker 1: like you don't know what's going on where you have
- 1:30:40Speaker 1: your top two players, like will they come back? When
- 1:30:42Speaker 1: will they come back? You know now they have their answer,
- 1:30:44Speaker 1: they're not coming back, So the team might be able
- 1:30:46Speaker 1: to actually move forward now and have some you know,
- 1:30:49Speaker 1: semblance of I don't know if I want to call it, well, stability,
- 1:30:54Speaker 1: I guess is what I would say now, because you
- 1:30:56Speaker 1: don't have to think about like when are these guys
- 1:30:58Speaker 1: coming back anymore? You know, this is your team moving forward.
- 1:31:02Speaker 1: So I think that it might actually help Sacramento. Here
- 1:31:04Speaker 1: in Sacramento, you want to talk about going into the
- 1:31:06Speaker 1: All Star break on a losing streak, they went into
- 1:31:09Speaker 1: the All Star break on a fourteen game losing streak,
- 1:31:12Speaker 1: So there you go. You want to talk about disrupting
- 1:31:14Speaker 1: losing a momentum there, I would probably lean to the
- 1:31:18Speaker 1: Kings in this game, plus the points man Magic having
- 1:31:22Speaker 1: to go out to play a West Coast game here,
- 1:31:24Speaker 1: they already dropped from a ten to a half way favorite
- 1:31:26Speaker 1: to an eight and a half way favorite here seventy
- 1:31:28Speaker 1: percent of the ticket, sixty seven percent of the cash.
- 1:31:30Speaker 1: I think probably the Magic have some injury still going
- 1:31:34Speaker 1: on there, which is why that lie dropped like that.
- 1:31:35Speaker 1: But they were a very public side and going out
- 1:31:39Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast with a bigger game against Phoenix
- 1:31:41Speaker 1: on deck, Kings may have used that All Star break
- 1:31:44Speaker 1: to maybe just you know, forget about all those losses
- 1:31:48Speaker 1: and maybe actually show up. I know there's this whole
- 1:31:51Speaker 1: tanking thing everybody's talking about in the NBA, and I'm
- 1:31:54Speaker 1: telling you that the players that are on the court,
- 1:31:57Speaker 1: they don't tank unless they're like gambling against them. Like
- 1:32:00Speaker 1: you're on the court, you're not gonna like it's against
- 1:32:03Speaker 1: human nature, or just go out there and just you know,
- 1:32:05Speaker 1: intentionally fail, you know what I mean, Like you go
- 1:32:08Speaker 1: out there and it becomes like a fight and you
- 1:32:10Speaker 1: want to start actually playing and winning the game. The
- 1:32:13Speaker 1: tanking aspect is more organizational, where like you'll have coaches
- 1:32:17Speaker 1: that start benching their best players and stuff, and that's
- 1:32:19Speaker 1: where the tanking actually does happen. So you know, that's
- 1:32:23Speaker 1: I'm trying to clarify what my position is on that.
- 1:32:27Speaker 1: But yes, I do actually lead to Sacramento in this game.
- 1:32:30Speaker 1: It would be fading the public here as well with
- 1:32:32Speaker 1: a home dog here. I know, we know how many
- 1:32:36Speaker 1: of these guys are out for Sacramento. We get it.
- 1:32:39Speaker 1: Wagner is indeed still out for Orlando. I don't know
- 1:32:42Speaker 1: when he's even coming back. Man, this is crazy. It
- 1:32:45Speaker 1: looks like he might be out for another month now,
- 1:32:47Speaker 1: even though it looks like his return was going to
- 1:32:49Speaker 1: be imminent. But that's probably the reason why the Magic
- 1:32:51Speaker 1: dropped a little bit on the line there, but I
- 1:32:53Speaker 1: would still lean towards taking it with the Kings. And
- 1:32:57Speaker 1: then to finish it off, we have Denver at the Clippers.
- 1:33:01Speaker 1: Denver went into the All Star Break beating Memphis. Denver
- 1:33:05Speaker 1: did not actually go into the All Star Break hot though,
- 1:33:07Speaker 1: they lost four of their last six games, so I
- 1:33:10Speaker 1: think they're gonna show up for this game, but I
- 1:33:12Speaker 1: think the Clippers will also show up. I think you're
- 1:33:15Speaker 1: gonna get effort out of both teams here, so you
- 1:33:18Speaker 1: got to kind of handicap it from like a numbers perspective.
- 1:33:20Speaker 1: Although the Clippers did go into the break on a
- 1:33:22Speaker 1: win against Houston, which was a better way to go
- 1:33:25Speaker 1: into the break. That was a nice win. They do
- 1:33:27Speaker 1: have a Laker game tomorrow on TV, too, so they
- 1:33:30Speaker 1: do kind of have that looming there. But they did
- 1:33:33Speaker 1: lose at Denver one oh nine January thirty at the
- 1:33:37Speaker 1: last time they played them, so they might actually have
- 1:33:40Speaker 1: some adjustments to make it. Maybe will show up for
- 1:33:42Speaker 1: that reason, and maybe Denver will overlook the Clippers slightly
- 1:33:47Speaker 1: for that reason. Looking at who's in and out. Darius
- 1:33:52Speaker 1: Garland has not played since the Clippers made that trade.
- 1:33:56Speaker 1: I don't know when he's gonna play. I don't know
- 1:33:57Speaker 1: what's going on with that, So he'll be out and
- 1:34:00Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon, I guess, is the biggest injury still for
- 1:34:03Speaker 1: Denver here, But that's kind of I mean, we know
- 1:34:05Speaker 1: he's been out for a while. Nuggets will be with
- 1:34:08Speaker 1: Jokic and Murray, I presume in these in these in
- 1:34:11Speaker 1: this game here, So we got to figure out how
- 1:34:14Speaker 1: to handicap this game now. Given all that the Nuggets
- 1:34:17Speaker 1: are up from a three and a half point favorite
- 1:34:19Speaker 1: to a four point favorite here, they are on the
- 1:34:20Speaker 1: public side seventy four percent of tickets, fifty six percent
- 1:34:24Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I think it all comes
- 1:34:26Speaker 1: down to the Clippers just get a lot of respect
- 1:34:28Speaker 1: out of the market recently, because we just know that
- 1:34:31Speaker 1: they're not as bad as their awful start to the season,
- 1:34:34Speaker 1: Like they looked horrible to start the season, but they've
- 1:34:37Speaker 1: been a lot better over the last month or so.
- 1:34:39Speaker 1: Even though I know they traded James hard in a way,
- 1:34:41Speaker 1: but I kind of think Harden is a bit of
- 1:34:43Speaker 1: a chemistry killer man, so I don't think that was
- 1:34:45Speaker 1: that bad of a move. Although Garnland still has not
- 1:34:48Speaker 1: played for them. But even given all of that, I
- 1:34:51Speaker 1: probably do lean to taking the points of the Clippers
- 1:34:53Speaker 1: in that one. But that's all I got for you, man.
- 1:34:56Speaker 1: The best lean I think in the NBA, believe it
- 1:34:58Speaker 1: or not, is probably the net plus the points. And
- 1:35:01Speaker 1: I do like the Knicks too as well. Wherever the
- 1:35:03Speaker 1: Knicks are here. Yeah, I think the Knicks are not
- 1:35:06Speaker 1: a bad way to look either today for the NBA.
- 1:35:08Speaker 1: But I'm skipping it. That's gonna do it for me, man. Yeah,
- 1:35:14Speaker 1: I'll be back out tomorrow. Of course, NBA Friday usually
- 1:35:17Speaker 1: fairly big as well. There'll be a shorter college basketball
- 1:35:20Speaker 1: card to mahm. We're still without NHL for about a week.
- 1:35:23Speaker 1: We're going into the the hockey semifinals here now in
- 1:35:28Speaker 1: the US and Canada. Both survived yesterday in overtime. Both
- 1:35:33Speaker 1: almost lost, So we'll see. And then I believe who's
- 1:35:38Speaker 1: still in it now? I think it's Finland and Slovakia
- 1:35:41Speaker 1: I think are still in it. And at this point,
- 1:35:43Speaker 1: I mean, it looks like it's just clearly coming down
- 1:35:45Speaker 1: to a US versus Canada final, though I mean that's
- 1:35:48Speaker 1: basically what everybody wants. Maybe everything's just kind of rigged anyway.
- 1:35:52Speaker 1: But I haven't really been following it, but I presume
- 1:35:54Speaker 1: they're both gonna be heavy favorites against whichever opponents they're playing.
- 1:35:59Speaker 1: One of them is playing finn then one of them
- 1:36:00Speaker 1: is playing Slovakia. I presume that's the way the bracket
- 1:36:05Speaker 1: is set up. I don't think the US is playing
- 1:36:07Speaker 1: Canada in the semifinals, right, There's no way that would
- 1:36:10Speaker 1: wind up happening, right, So I don't know. Yeah, I
- 1:36:14Speaker 1: mean the USA, I mean, I don't know. I'm I'm
- 1:36:16Speaker 1: lukewarm towards these USA Olympic teams because the the stupid
- 1:36:21Speaker 1: you know, all the warmongers and all the people in
- 1:36:23Speaker 1: the government like hype up the US team. So I'm
- 1:36:26Speaker 1: just like fuck that. And then yeah, I don't know, man.
- 1:36:29Speaker 1: I think it's also stupid that Russia is banned from
- 1:36:32Speaker 1: the Olympics just because of politics. Dude, that that lets
- 1:36:37Speaker 1: you not experience like the miracle on ice anymore. Like
- 1:36:40Speaker 1: there's a new documentary about that online on Netflix. I
- 1:36:44Speaker 1: haven't watched it, but uh, you know, the miracle documentary.
- 1:36:48Speaker 1: So it's the real story of the US beating the USSR.
- 1:36:52Speaker 1: But like, why would why would the Olympics want to
- 1:36:54Speaker 1: take that away from everybody. Now that was one of
- 1:36:57Speaker 1: the most famous, like huge upsets in Olympic history, and
- 1:37:02Speaker 1: now you can't even get that anymore. I know. It's
- 1:37:04Speaker 1: not the Soviet Union anymore, which you know that's why
- 1:37:07Speaker 1: NATO should should not have, should not exist anymore. Oh god,
- 1:37:11Speaker 1: I'm gonna get this channel nuked. But Russia they should,
- 1:37:14Speaker 1: you know, they should be allowed in the Olympics. Man,
- 1:37:16Speaker 1: it's all fucking stupid, but that's gonna do it for
- 1:37:19Speaker 1: me once again. My place today are all in college basketball.
- 1:37:23Speaker 1: We're on William and Mary at a Pick Them Citadel
- 1:37:26Speaker 1: plus the Points and Georgia State money Line. But again
- 1:37:30Speaker 1: those money line and pick them ones. I mean, look
- 1:37:33Speaker 1: at both markets and see where you get the best
- 1:37:34Speaker 1: numbers spread versus money line. So that's gonna do it.
- 1:37:38Speaker 1: Learn it tone on Twitter you can subscribe to me there.
- 1:37:40Speaker 1: Learn it tone on Instagram, like subscribe, give me good
- 1:37:43Speaker 1: comments on the channel here. We're gonna boost this thing up. Man.
- 1:37:47Speaker 1: We got audio as well for the show. You know,
- 1:37:51Speaker 1: listen over there. Give me good reviews on Apple Spotify
- 1:37:54Speaker 1: covered in yuke like and subscribe give me comments over
- 1:37:57Speaker 1: there too. The Yuke channel that I got there on YouTube.
- 1:38:00Speaker 1: My voice has not been holding up for a few days,
- 1:38:03Speaker 1: so I haven't been doing you covers for a few days.
- 1:38:05Speaker 1: But we'll get back to it at some point. Patreon
- 1:38:08Speaker 1: dot com, slash learn to Toad for some bonus yuke
- 1:38:10Speaker 1: stuff and if you just want to throw me support,
- 1:38:12Speaker 1: I appreciate it. And Loser Cast, go check that out.
- 1:38:16Speaker 1: We had an episode a couple of nights ago with
- 1:38:19Speaker 1: Ellie Stockholm fun guests for us there, so go check
- 1:38:23Speaker 1: that out. That's every Tuesday night the New Comedy Show.
- 1:38:28Speaker 1: I think that was a pretty hilarious episode, to be honest.
- 1:38:32Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Man. It did feel almost Tower
- 1:38:34Speaker 1: Gang Ask in a way. But that'll do it for me.
- 1:38:36Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow to talk about the basketball. Sleep
- 1:38:41Speaker 1: for tomorrow, and that'll be it for now. Have a
- 1:38:43Speaker 1: good one. Let's keep the winning going. In peace for now.