Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 175 - 12/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 175 - 12/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 175 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Wednesday. Another day here in the arena,
0:38
guys halfway through our work week, one day closer to college
0:42
Football Conference championship weekend and one day closer to
0:46
Thursday Night Football. And I do have a bet for you a
0:48
bet that I'm going to put in right now.
0:50
I actually put it in right before the pod began, Packers,
0:53
Detroit Lions. I saw this line moving and I
0:56
said, hey, if we want to play this team, we better get it
0:58
right now before we before we lose a very important number
1:02
here when it comes to tomorrow's matchup.
1:04
So end of the pod, I'll talk a best bet for Thursday Night
1:07
Football with you guys. But today it's all about college
1:11
basketball, which is fine by me. I feel like I can't win a hockey
1:14
bet to save my life. NBA, I always think is one of
1:17
the hardest sports to bet on, but I feel like some of my best
1:19
success comes from college hoops.
1:21
So we're going to have a full college hoops podcast today.
1:24
Five games overall, all big games, or at least you know,
1:28
three of the five I would say are big games.
1:30
I would spread out throughout the night starting at 6:30, last
1:33
one's at 10:30 and a lot of them are big, heavily bet matchups
1:37
with some really interesting sharp line moves.
1:39
Some fade, the trendy dogs, some contrarian dogs with line moves.
1:42
So get ready for a big night in college basketball.
1:46
Now looking back to our last night, guys 2 and 3 -, 1.2 units
1:50
had a couple fantastic hits and this is what really excited me
1:53
last night, even though it was a losing night overall.
1:56
Michigan getting it done for the team, the Wolverines, you love
2:00
to see it. But Michigan with that great
2:02
contrarian opportunity, Ken Palm edge as well, Rhythm edge.
2:06
Michigan was able to win outright, that fishy, you know,
2:09
short number, yet they were unranked versus Wisconsin being
2:12
ranked. They win the damn game.
2:14
You love to see it. So we cashed with the plus 3 1/2
2:17
and then stayed up late and boy, was it worth it.
2:20
Kentucky, Clemson Why was Clemson only a 1 1/2 point dog
2:24
against powerhouse Kentucky and everyone and their mother was on
2:27
Kentucky Yet you saw that line at one point move down toward
2:30
Clemson like plus 2 1/2 + 2 down to 1 1/2 or one.
2:34
And now remember sound the alarm, our first Ken Palm sound
2:38
the alarm of the year. Ken Palm had Clemson winning the
2:41
game yet they in the betting market they were a dog getting a
2:44
point and a half. So love to see Clemson come
2:46
through for the team. 2 great hits, Clemson and Michigan,
2:49
sadly that's all we got last night and it was really
2:51
frustrating not just losing both of our totals.
2:54
So the over in the Butler Eastern Illinois game, the over
2:57
in the Evansville Murray State game, both were losers, but it
3:01
was kind of like salt in the wound because we beat the
3:02
closing line in both games. If you remember Butler Eastern
3:05
Illinois over 138 1/2, it closed 141.
3:09
And if you're watching that game as I was, I was all excited.
3:12
It was an early game, like hey, let's get a win under our belt
3:14
to start our night. Freaking Eastern Illinois must
3:17
have missed, I don't even know, 15 layups, bunnies around the
3:21
hoop and actually made it close in the second-half.
3:23
I think it landed 131. But that was a tough one.
3:26
Beating the closing line and losing.
3:28
And then Evansville, Murray State over 144 1/2.
3:31
They closed 145 1/2. Yet they are completely ice cold
3:34
and can't catch the over. So even though losing night and
3:37
of course the Panthers get down 4 to one storm back make me
3:41
think they have a chance only to lose in overtime to the lowly
3:43
Penguins. Even though we're losing night,
3:46
Michigan, Clemson, pretty good hits and again, we're reading
3:49
the market correctly, but those totals did not come through for
3:51
us. So let's see if we can get right
3:53
back to it and produce a winning night for tonight.
3:56
Now I want to start off with, and it's going to be all college
3:58
hoops today. I'm going to kind of go around
4:01
and in not exactly chronological order, but I want to go based
4:04
upon some really big games early that I want to mention first.
4:08
So the first one that mentioned that I want to hit on is the
4:11
most heavily bet game of the night.
4:13
Auburn against Duke baby. Auburn comes in second ranked
4:16
team in the country 7 and O the Dukies, the 9th ranked team in
4:20
the country. They're five and two and this is
4:22
a 9:15 PM Eastern Time game on ESPN.
4:25
So two top ten teams most heavily bet game of the night.
4:28
This is a great opportunity to fade a trendy dog.
4:32
Now going into this one, of course, Auburn second ranked
4:35
team in the country. Yes, they're on the road.
4:37
It's at the Cameron Crazies. But Auburn, they should be the
4:40
ranked team, right? Or they should be the favorite
4:42
team. The wrong team is favored, as a
4:44
lot of the, you know, novice bettors like to say, thinking
4:46
that they're smarter than the odds makers, who, again, are the
4:49
smartest people in the room. But anyway, Auburn getting
4:52
points. Take it all day.
4:53
Auburn's getting 3 1/2 again. They're the number two team.
4:56
Duke is number 9. That seems like an easy, obvious
4:59
bet, right? Well, not so fast.
5:01
This game actually opened Duke as low as -2 1/2 at home.
5:05
And even though the public is all over the Auburn Tigers
5:09
currently, they're getting upwards of 60% of bets.
5:12
I guess it's not that lopsided, but still nearly 2/3 clear
5:16
majority on Auburn. The line is actually moved
5:18
further toward Duke. Duke -2 1/2 now up to -3 1/2 if
5:23
you look at Circa, which really prides itself on catering to
5:26
sharp betters and having high limits.
5:28
And not, you know, saying no or denying smart money as other
5:31
books like to do. Which I think is a mistake
5:33
because wise guys, they give you Intel, which maybe they'll maybe
5:36
they'll win a bet and you got to pay them.
5:38
But that knowledge is worth something.
5:40
I think it's important. So I think the smartest
5:41
bookmakers welcome sharp action versus kind of just the people
5:44
who only care about the bottom line saying let's limit them.
5:48
If you know what I'm talking about, you know what I'm talking
5:50
about. Anyway, circa 5050 bet split.
5:53
Yet 89% of money, money, money, money is on Duke.
5:57
So great low bets, higher dollar split.
5:59
Then we get to not only that line move again public Auburn
6:03
line going to Duke also. We have a great system match and
6:07
I'm I'm money lining Duke. I, I play Duke to win the damn
6:09
game I got him at -160 again, I'm not going to have Duke win
6:13
by 1-2 or three and I lose my bet.
6:15
Crazy things happen. 3 pointers, you know, free throws, you never
6:19
know fouls and stuff like that late but this is a money line
6:22
play for me. Fade the trendy dog.
6:24
I'm playing Duke at -160 and here's a great system that I
6:27
love with Duke. 2 ranked teams take the home favorite.
6:31
Very simple, but it's three and one this year.
6:33
Again, this is straight up money line system.
6:35
And if you look all the way since, let me see how far back
6:38
this goes. This goes all the way back to
6:43
I'm just dial it up here for you.
6:45
I got the spinning wheel of death on my browser, so we'll
6:48
see how far it goes back here. It is actually since 2021.
6:52
So you're looking at 123. You know, the fourth year of
6:55
data, 2 ranked teams take the home favorite straight up is 137
6:59
and 3779 percent, 16% ROI. So whole point being again, you
7:05
know, homecourt is important. Two ranked teams take the home
7:08
favorite. It's been a great system
7:10
historically. It matches here with the Dukies.
7:12
Ken Palm has Duke winning by two, which is why I want a money
7:16
line Duke and not worry about, you know, Duke winning by two
7:18
and me losing my -3 1/2. Our friends at Rhythm have Duke
7:22
-3.6. So that's good that the Rhythm
7:25
AI model is actually even more bullish on Duke and then also
7:28
you just get the opportunity of going contrarian in a prime time
7:32
game again, which is an angle that I always love taking as we
7:36
saw it cash with both Clemson and Michigan yesterday.
7:39
So you add it all up here guys, the most heavily bet game of the
7:41
night, a game that I'm sure you can't wait to sweat.
7:43
I can't wait to sweat Publix on Auburn Lions going to Duke.
7:47
We got great system matches, great bet splits, a rhythm and a
7:50
Ken Palm edge. I'm going Duke to win the damn
7:52
game. Let's go Cooper flag.
7:54
I got Duke on the money line at -160 all right, second most
7:59
heavily back game of the night, Baylor and UConn.
8:03
Now, this one's interesting because if you haven't been
8:04
paying attention, something's up with UConn.
8:07
They got injuries. There's a Danny Hurley, Bobby
8:10
Hurley. I never get the Hurley's right,
8:12
but their coach is going insane, throwing tantrums on the court.
8:15
Connecticut's struggling. They're five and three, ranked
8:17
25th in the country throughout. Home tonight against Baylor,
8:20
who's ranked 15th, 5:00 and 2:00 on the year.
8:23
What have we seen across the market here?
8:25
I think it's a good opportunity to grab the hook, shop around
8:28
and take Baylor in the points second most heavily back game of
8:31
the night. What really jumped out to me,
8:32
this is a 630 game early start FS1.
8:36
But I thought going into it, hey, you kind of struggled.
8:39
You know, they they they've lost a couple games, three in a row,
8:42
Dayton, Colorado, Memphis. I thought the public would be
8:45
off of Connecticut. Like I thought they'd say, oh,
8:47
you're struggling recently. I don't want to play you as a
8:49
favorite, but actually that's not not what's happening.
8:52
I think that's important, you know, not to just assume where
8:55
the public is, but verify. Remember Ronald Reagan said
8:58
trust but verify when it came to the the nuclear, you know,
9:02
arsenal of Russia. Don't just have Russia tell you
9:04
that they're not going to nuke us.
9:05
Have some verification. But anyway, the verification
9:09
here is that the public actually is still on the Yukon bandwagon
9:13
after again, you know, winning the championship, being a really
9:15
good team the last couple years. Currently, if you look at
9:19
DraftKings, 62% of bets are on Connecticut.
9:22
However, even though Publix go in Yukon, the line is falling
9:26
toward Baylor. This game open Connecticut as
9:28
high as AI want to say I saw -4 -, 4 1/2.
9:32
It's now down to 3 1/2 or three. Very important to get the hook
9:36
here. I was able to get the hook plus
9:38
3 1/2 at -115 at ESPN bet. Caesars and FanDuel both have
9:42
the hook as well, but a lot of books are getting down to three,
9:45
so again, lose by three. We want to cover with the hook
9:47
here. I'd love to see Baylor went
9:49
outright because I'd love to see Hurley squirm once again.
9:52
But here's where it gets good. Baylor's contrarian and heavily
9:55
back game reverse line move Publix, Connecticut, yet lines
9:58
going to Baylor. Ken Palm has Baylor only losing
10:01
by three. So again, you're kind of right
10:03
on the number. But still with that hook
10:05
actionable edge of of plus 3 1/2 lose by three, you cover Baylor.
10:09
I'm going to bank on a couple things.
10:10
One is their offensive rebounding.
10:14
They are rebound offensive re on percentage, 40% versus only 36%
10:19
for UConn. They also shoot the three 38%
10:22
versus 37% defensively. They're 74th in defensive
10:27
efficiency. Doesn't sound great, but UConn
10:29
is 84th. And then also we have an injury
10:32
for UConn. Alex Caraban, actually from
10:35
Massachusetts, Southborough, I'm a, I'm a New Englander, of
10:38
course, but he's their leading scorer, 16 points a game.
10:41
He's not going to play. And also the experience.
10:44
Baylor's got a lot of experience guys, their average experience
10:47
for Ken Palm, 2.91 years versus 1.63 for UConn.
10:52
And I was also looking at in particular the top scorers.
10:56
They have a guy something Omare, he was with my, I remember on
11:00
Miami last year. He's not that tall, but he's a
11:02
really good reminder. He transferred to Baylor.
11:05
Jeremy Roach, the point guard who was on Duke, he transferred
11:08
to Baylor. Their top three scorers are all
11:10
seniors versus UConn, who's got a ton of freshmen and
11:14
sophomores. So hopefully that's an advantage
11:16
to the, you know, the upperclassmen of Baylor.
11:19
We add it all up here, guys. I thought for sure public would
11:21
say Connecticut. You've been, you know,
11:23
struggling as of late. I don't want to play you, but no
11:26
public is still on Connecticut yet.
11:27
Lines going to Baylor. I'm going to go Baylor Bears
11:30
here, guys. Make sure you do your best to
11:32
get that hook. I got Baylor plus 3 1/2 at ESPN
11:35
Bet keep on cruising. Another big one tonight, 8:30 PM
11:40
Eastern Time. We got Kansas and Creighton now
11:43
going to this one. We all know Kansas, number one
11:45
team in the country, 7 and O on the season, undefeated Creighton
11:49
unranked, they're five and three.
11:51
What do we see across the market here?
11:53
Well, this game opened with Kansas around A5 point favorite
11:57
on the road. Some shops were 4 1/2.
11:59
Some fives kind of saw, you know, a bit of a mix there.
12:02
We'll call it 4 1/2 five. But anyway, public is saying
12:06
this line is way too low and this is going to be easily, you
12:09
know, Kansas in a blowout here, 80% of spread bets are going
12:13
Kansas. They think this line's too low.
12:16
However, Creighton opened or Kansas open as a 5.4 and a half
12:20
point favorite. Have we seen Kansas get up to -6
12:23
-? 7, which you would imagine
12:25
getting that heavy lopsided betting, right?
12:27
It's going to go toward Kansas? No, it's actually kind of stayed
12:29
where it's at. Those -5 Kansas's have gotten
12:32
down to four and a half. Those 4 1/2's have stayed 4 1/2.
12:35
And if you look at kind of the movement over the last, you
12:38
know, basically during the day today, you saw some books get
12:41
down to 3 1/2. So all movement liability has
12:44
been toward Creighton in this one.
12:46
And why is that notable? Because it's 8:30 Eastern Time
12:49
Tip Fox Sports 1. But this is the most contrarian
12:52
play of the day. Only 20% of bets on Creighton,
12:54
yet we have reverse line movement or a line freeze.
12:57
Again, why hasn't this line going up further to Kansas tells
12:59
me oddsmakers don't want to give out a better number to
13:01
Creighton. Contrarian betters.
13:03
Creighton also is an unranked versus ranked.
13:06
Buy low, sell high play. Ken Palm has Creighton losing by
13:09
5, which again is not good. I got plus 4 1/2 by the way, at
13:15
Bet MGM, either Bet MGM or ESPN bet, but those four and a halfs
13:19
are available. There's a lot of fours, but make
13:21
sure you get the hook. 4 1/2. I can't tell you how important
13:24
those half half points can be. But anyway, even though Ken
13:27
Palms got a 5 point game, our friends at Rhythm, I have two
13:30
rhythm models. One says we have creating that
13:34
plus 2.8 and another one that says creating plus 4.2.
13:39
So again, this should be hopefully a a tight game in this
13:42
spot. Obviously you're you're going
13:44
with the kind of the fishy narrative of Kansas is great.
13:47
Everyone's playing them, yet the lines stay the same or even dip
13:49
toward Creighton. I noticed the big advantage free
13:52
throw shooting. If this becomes a free throw
13:54
shooting contest, hopefully this benefits Creighton.
13:57
Creighton is shooting 78% from the free throw line, only 71%
14:02
for for Kansas and then also a dog who can score a system
14:06
match. We've talked about this in
14:07
college football. But if you can put up points in
14:09
a spread sport makes it more likely that you're going to
14:12
cover the number or makes it a little bit easier versus not
14:15
scoring it off and then not being able to cover.
14:17
But anyway, Creighton, they score 78 points a game.
14:21
So can we have a, you know, Kansas wins by three or four?
14:24
We cover with the four and a half.
14:26
This is a play where I got to go contrarian with that element of
14:29
sharp action. Hopefully we can get a tight
14:31
game here. Creighton at home.
14:33
Give me Creighton plus 4 1/2. Now let's get to some late games
14:38
a little bit. You know, smaller games, I would
14:40
say, but here is a 10/30 game, Oregon and USC.
14:45
So late night showdown here we have Oregon coming in 12th in
14:48
the country, 8 and O undefeated USC five and three and they've
14:53
lost two straight. So this is an Oregon blowout,
14:55
right? Not so fast.
14:57
I like USC and the points in this one.
14:58
Guys, we open this game Oregon as high as a 7 1/2 point Rd.
15:02
favorite, and the public is all over the Ducks.
15:06
They easily want to lay these points.
15:07
You know Oregon will win by double digits.
15:09
That sort of thought process. But even though 65% of bets are
15:12
going Oregon, we've seen this line really fall.
15:16
Oregon -7 1/2. It's all the way down to six or
15:19
even 5 1/2. I was able to get the +6 at
15:22
Caesar's, so at least try to get the six because there's 5 1/2's
15:25
out there, but only about a third, only about 1/3 of bets,
15:30
but at circa 77% of the money. And when I said a third of bets,
15:35
that was at circa at DraftKings, USC is only getting 18% of bets.
15:40
So if you like Creighton, you like USC.
15:43
Public Kansas line going to Creighton.
15:45
This one is public Oregon line going to USC.
15:48
It's the ultimate buy low, sell high, unranked versus ranked US
15:51
CS lost two straight. Oregon's undefeated.
15:54
And then add another angle here, our friends at Rhythm.
15:58
I have two models where first one says USC should be plus 3.9,
16:01
the other one is plus 5.2. Now Ken Palm has a 7 point game.
16:05
So it's not a Ken Palm edge, but it's just scream to me, you
16:08
know, everyone's playing Oregon. The sign keeps falling to USC.
16:12
Can we cover and lose by 5 or less?
16:14
I got USC at +6. And then, you know, we got to
16:19
fit in after all these big games, got to fit in a small
16:22
game, a game that probably is being completely overlooked but
16:26
looks like it might be hopefully a winner for us tonight.
16:28
You probably wouldn't expect this one, but this is 9:00
16:31
Eastern Time. Sacramento State and the Denver
16:34
Pioneers also going into this one, two teams who have
16:37
struggled. Sacramento State two and five.
16:39
Denver, 3:00 and 6:00. But what do we look toward?
16:43
You know, when you when you look at the games we just talked
16:45
about all these big ones, you know, Auburn, Duke, Baylor,
16:47
Connecticut, Kansas, Creighton, Oregon, USCI put a lot of stock
16:51
in a going contrarian because they're heavily bet games where
16:53
I want to bet against the public.
16:55
But as you know, Sacramento, Denver, there's really not much
16:58
contrarian value because there's not enough public bets and bias
17:01
to go against. So what do we lean on?
17:03
System matches, Ken Palm rhythm and line movement.
17:07
So again, small games are lean line movement.
17:09
Big games are lean a little bit more contrarian.
17:11
But anyway, I like Denver in the spot.
17:13
I got The Pioneers on the money line to win this damn game at
17:16
-155 But what I like about this one is low bet obscure game.
17:21
It's extremely low bet, but it opened -1 1/2 Denver -1 1/2 -,
17:25
2. Now it's up to -2 1/2 now -3 and
17:29
I see one book, maybe even 3 1/2.
17:31
So it's been pretty clear that this line is moving toward
17:34
Denver, which right off the bat, alarm bells go off in my head.
17:38
There's no, you know, public betters playing this one.
17:39
It's it's probably mostly wise guys moving that number, but
17:43
it's an obscure sharp line move at DraftKings. 73% bets, 89%
17:48
money. Now you might say, oh, that's
17:49
public, right? But no, this is mostly 79, 73%
17:53
bets, 89% dollars from again sharp betters who have targeted
17:57
the game. Ken Palm only has Denver winning
17:59
by one, but our friends at Rhythm have this a little bit
18:04
bigger of an edge they have. I have two models here where
18:07
Denver should be -3.4 and -3.6. Huge discrepancy in terms of
18:13
free throw shooting, which could be important in a tight game
18:16
here. Short spread, but Denver is
18:18
shooting 79% from the free throw line versus only 66% for
18:23
Sacramento State. Denver's got the better offense,
18:26
74 points a game versus 69. Also, one thing I want to bet
18:30
against Sacramento State is they turn the ball over a lot.
18:34
They are ranked 343 in the country in terms of turning it
18:38
over, so they turn it over a lot.
18:40
They don't take care of the ball, which is great for betting
18:43
against them. And then also home Rd.
18:46
Denver's three and O at home. Sacramento State's one and three
18:48
on the road. And what do we need to know
18:51
about Denver? The elevation, of course,
18:53
elevation, you know, Mile High of which is what we always know
18:57
5240 something feet. I don't know if anyone watched
19:01
the hilarious Saturday Night Live, Nate Bargatzi where he's
19:04
George Washington and he's like, I want to create a country where
19:07
we measure things in liters and you know, but yards and like,
19:10
it's so funny. You should Google it.
19:12
But one of it is like one of them is like, oh, how many, you
19:15
know, feet in a yard? And then he's like, how many?
19:17
And he's like, we don't know. I'm butchering it.
19:19
But it's hilarious if you know what I'm talking about.
19:21
But he says how many feet in a mile, 55,240 years, whatever it
19:26
is. But anyway, point being Denver
19:29
elevation. I Googled it just for s s and GS
19:32
Sacramento State elevation in California, 26 feet above sea
19:36
level. So again, this should be a tough
19:38
spot for Sacramento State going to Denver where again, they're
19:42
one and three on the road. Denver's three and old home.
19:44
We got a lot of big games tonight.
19:46
Here's a small one, hopefully that we can cash.
19:48
I got the Denver Pioneers win the damn game -155 S Denver
19:53
money line USC plus 6, Creighton plus 4 1/2, Baylor plus 3 1/2
20:00
and Duke money line 5 pack. Can we scratch and claw and get
20:04
three of them? That's the goal now, to finish
20:07
up the pod. I buried the lead a little bit.
20:10
I was saying, hey, should I wait until the day of to talk
20:12
Thursday Night Football? And then I said to myself, man,
20:15
this number is moving, we should grab it now before it falls too
20:18
much. Green Bay and Detroit should be
20:21
a fantastic game to the best teams in the league happen to be
20:24
divisional opponents. Of course.
20:26
Detroit comes in 11 and one Super Bowl favorites, Green Bay
20:29
nine and three. Both are riding winning streaks.
20:32
But I noticed a couple things going on here.
20:34
This is what I would call a wheelhouse play.
20:35
For me, a wheelhouse play is when, as a data-driven better,
20:39
you combine going contrarian with sharp action with system
20:44
matches. So I'm on Green Bay, and the
20:47
reason why I said, hey, I better talk about on the pod today is
20:50
that the hook is available, Green Bay plus 3 1/2.
20:53
But a lot of these books are really juiced up toward Green
20:56
Bay plus 3 1/2 -, 115. And I see one book that's down
20:59
to three. So my whole idea here is that if
21:02
we wait until tomorrow, this could be down to three.
21:06
And if Detroit wins by three and we take Green Bay +3, we push
21:09
our bet. But if we're a little bit
21:11
proactive and we can jump on the hook today before it falls,
21:15
we'll be we'll be sitting pretty and looking good going into
21:17
tomorrow and hopefully beating the closing line.
21:19
So first part here is the line movement.
21:22
You had Detroit at some shops I saw in very early head early
21:25
lookout of like -5 -, 5 1/2. It quickly, very quickly got
21:30
down to four and a half. And now it's down to 3 1/2.
21:33
And now again, it's just up like it's going down to three.
21:35
So it's very clear that it's been 1 sided sharp movement in
21:38
favor of Green Bay now. It's also contrarian at
21:42
DraftKings. Green Bay is only getting 36% of
21:45
spread bets. So we're contrarian and heavily
21:48
bet primetime game primetime dog as well.
21:51
Circa bet splits only 49% are on Packers so it's a little bit
21:54
more even. But 87% of money is on Green
21:58
Bay. So a great bet split at Circa
22:01
and then divisional dog. Built in familiarity, leveling
22:04
the playing field, benefiting the team, getting points.
22:07
Rd. dogs in general have been, you know, 52% this year.
22:10
They've been 54% ATS last four or five years, conference or
22:15
sorry, prime time dogs getting three or more, that's been
22:18
really good, even 3, especially for 3 1/2 or more.
22:21
I said to myself, hey, great game.
22:24
Let's let's not wait too long on this one because again, we might
22:26
miss the hook. So I jumped on it right now.
22:29
I jumped on it right before the pod began.
22:31
Plus 3 1/2 Packers, let's go, go, pack, go.
22:34
Plus 3 1/2. So that about does it another
22:38
episode here of the ASG pod in the books, episode 175.
22:42
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
22:44
And I start by thanking you. I really appreciate you guys
22:47
taking the time out of your day listening, whether you're, I
22:51
don't know, in the car, in on a bus, on a train, going to work,
22:54
coming home from work, whatever the case may be, the fact that
22:57
you take the time out of your busy lives to save 30 minutes to
23:01
listen to some sharp breakdowns together, that means a lot to
23:03
me. So thank you for tuning in.
23:05
Secondly, if you enjoy the pod and you want to let me know you
23:09
enjoy the pod, that'll be awesome and it'll be great.
23:12
If you could please do one thing for me, give this podcast a five
23:16
star review. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
23:20
or sorry, go to Spotify or iTunes, find the ASG pod, go to
23:25
rate and review, give it five stars would mean a lot to me.
23:27
Help us to continue to grow as well as I think we're closing in
23:31
on. I want to say we're at 289,
23:32
almost 305 star reviews. So let's get the 300.
23:36
But anyway, guys would mean a lot If you want to leave a good
23:38
comment, that'll be great If you want to click the follow button
23:41
or recommend it to a friend. Word of mouth is also fantastic.
23:44
But please give this pot of five star review if you enjoy it.
23:48
Secondly, if you want to learn more about data-driven, sharp,
23:50
contrary and bedding and you are dying to figure out what the
23:54
heck am I going to get grandpa for Christmas, or my uncle or
23:57
your nephew or your cousin or whoever.
23:59
Secret Santa, You know what makes a great stocking stuffer
24:02
this year? The everything guide to sports
24:04
betting. That's right, my baby, my book,
24:06
it's called the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
24:08
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
24:11
betting. You'll see it right there.
24:13
Grab a copy. It's got everything I've learned
24:14
in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
24:17
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
24:20
place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
24:23
how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
24:25
the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
24:27
So pick one up, bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you and
24:30
I'll buy you a beer next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
24:33
day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
24:36
My two favorite sports betting apps because it's all about the
24:38
data. Again, it's not opinion, it's
24:40
data. And we use data to win because
24:43
it removes our bias and tells us exactly where the market is
24:45
moving. So Rhythm, of course, great for
24:48
their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
24:50
player props. And then Juice Reel, fantastic
24:54
for one, following the ASG podcast best Bets, they're all
24:57
now posted to Juice Reel on a daily basis.
24:59
So if you missed the pod or you just want the plays or you want
25:02
to support the pod, it's 490-9499 a week, 5 bucks.
25:06
You'll get all the plays, get some early, hopefully beat some
25:09
closing lines. I've been putting them out, you
25:11
know, around like maybe noon, 1:00 pod comes out around 3:00
25:14
or 3:30 for it sometimes. I apologize if I'm late cuz I
25:18
got a lot going on here, but anyway, get some good numbers
25:21
early and think of it as a tip jar.
25:23
This pod is free. If I've been giving you good
25:25
insights over the years and you want to let me know you
25:27
appreciate it. Sign up 499 a week to support
25:30
the pod on juice reel. I'll tweet that out every day,
25:34
but you can also just go to juice reel, download the app,
25:37
click social, then click find juicers and then just type in
25:40
ASG under score podcast. But it's not just the pod best
25:44
bets there on juice reel. You can also get sharp mush
25:47
indicators, arbitrage opportunities, great to shop for
25:50
the best line, as well as game breakdowns, bets and dollars on
25:53
the spread money line in total for every game from everyone who
25:56
has synced up their sports books to the app, which is important,
26:00
but that about does it everybody another pot in the books so we
26:03
can grind our way to winning night.
26:05
I'm excited for a lot of college hoops here tonight.
26:08
And then of course, see if we can post some winners, which is
26:11
always the goal. But a couple things to leave you
26:13
with first, Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
26:17
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods
26:20
or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
26:22
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
26:26
neck of the woods and Massachusetts.
26:28
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
26:30
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
26:33
juice possible is found at the South Point.
26:35
Her sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
26:37
swim pool. When you catch a big ticket at
26:39
Circa wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me going to
26:43
show me a couple great hits last night.
26:44
Michigan baby, the Wolverines, the Clemson Tigers getting it
26:48
done. Just don't show me Panthers or
26:51
those totals beat the closing line.
26:52
We did our part. They couldn't hit the the broad
26:55
side of a barn. Sometimes that happens.
26:58
But either way, guys, first one's on me.
27:00
Next one's on you. We'll post about the book sweat
27:02
some sharp data-driven place together, but that about does it
27:05
everybody finish up with some words of wisdom that I've
27:09
learned over to over time. And I want you to know and
27:11
always remember 1 stay sharp, stay contrarian.
27:15
Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
27:17
house. Always be with the smart money
27:19
never against it will smart money when every time
27:22
unfortunately, it won't. We had smart money on those
27:24
totals going over. They both went under.
27:26
Sometimes that happens, but it means we're reading the market
27:29
correctly. So we got to continue to grind
27:31
stick with it. Bet games with our head and not
27:33
our heart. And if we can do that against
27:35
the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid
27:39
parlays and get that CLV, if we can do that consistently long
27:42
term, and I'm confident that we can, then we're going to come
27:45
out on top. So enjoy your Wednesday night,
27:47
everybody. Again, great night of college
27:50
hoops. Let's see if we can get some
27:51
winners. And we'll be right back at it
27:53
tomorrow for a big Thirsty Thursday edition of the All
27:56
Systems Go podcast, episode 175. Or actually tomorrow it'll be
28:00
176. And of course, always powered by
28:04
rhythm. Have a great Wednesday night,
28:05
everybody. I'll see you tomorrow.
28:07
Good luck.