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The Favorites - NBA Draft Betting · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume and Podcast Network.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: We're getting close to the NBA Draft, folks. It's mirror
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: hours away. This is Tuesday afternoon when we are recording.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: The draft is Thursday night. NBA Draft has become a
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: massive betting event. Ever since woad Bombs started becoming a
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: thing and he was telling everybody what was going to
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: happen before it could actually happen on television, and since
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: betting has become legal, people have loved to speculate as
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: they have with the NFL Draft on the NBA Draft,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: and this week Action Networks own Matter More is making
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: news that is driving NBA betting markets. So in a
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: couple of minutes we will welcome in Action Network analysts
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore as well as Action Network analyst Brandon Anderson,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: both of whom you can hear on the Buckets podcast,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: which is exploded during the NBA playoffs. There is a
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: new Buckets podcast up previewing the NBA Draft Simon Hunter,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, MIKEA Padre professional better. What's your
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: take on betting the NBA Draft. It's fun, like you
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: just said, it's it's definitely grown. But just like NFL,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: there's just so much noise in the last two three
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: days leading up to it. It's like what's legit and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: what's bs? So, I mean, it's fun, but I don't
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: know what you chat. I had a great weekend after
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: our Golden State win that covered a couple of beers
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: for your boy Ice Payday, so I was like relaxing
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: all the SUDD was like, holy shit, the NFL drafts next,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: I mean NBA drafts next week. The NBA is not
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: mess around. They're just like, no Mariage anyone else get
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: any type of spotlight. We're going right into our NBA draft.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Pretty wild. I mean, I can imagine these teams like
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Golden State. I know they have guys obviously prepping for
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: this draft. That must be an insane feeling to go
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: from an NBA championship parade to doing a draft in
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the same week. Number one. Yeah, NBA schedule is pretty tough,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: and Matt More can speak to that. You go from
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: NBA Finals to NBA Draft to free agency, and like
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: if they really don't give anybody a break? Uh, And yes, Simon,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you bring that up. You and I both
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: had the Warriors. I had the Warriors in six very
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: decidedly said that I had Steph to lead the Finals
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: in points per game and threes per game. Cash that
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: as well. You know, this is a good time to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: bring in Matt and Brandon. Do you guys remind me
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: who do you have in the finals at the Boston Celtics. Brandon,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: what was your take? I had Celtics and sex. Yeah.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you know what happens is the guys who just
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: sort of watched the game and look at it from
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: thirty feet We don't get confused, we don't. We just
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: believe what we see and anybody anybody watching those games
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: could see Steve Kerr is the best coach, Steph Curry
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  Speaker 1: is the best player. And if you watch the Celtics
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: all year, which I did watch a lot of Celtics game,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: you knew their fatal flaw was that Jalen Brown and
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum all they like to do was drive to
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: the basket without a plan in mind, and then hope
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: they can bully somebody or the athleticism will help them.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Mid air, we said, what happened? Too many turnovers from
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum because he couldn't figure out what to do
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: when he had the ball driving to the basket. Matt More, Sorry,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I didn't expect the Celtics to set records for turnovers.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: All that I did, I did over. But it's fine.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: It's fine. Congrats on your bets, boys. You wanna what
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: It's fine because I had Andrew Wiggins one to leave
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the series and rebounds, so I came out just fine.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: You can have your your paltry Warriors bets. Well, listen,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I'll give you a hard time about the Celtics um
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: and look every single this was a really interesting series
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: for that, and it is worth having a discussion in
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: abetting context because it very much was a public sharp
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: divide on this. For the most part, A lot of people,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of the public looked at the Warriors, saw
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the dynasty. They were betting on the Celtics, a lot
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: of wise guys, they loved their models having the Celtics,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: and I just thought that was a fascinating narrative. Brandon,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: for how the market publicly was looking at something versus
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: how the professionals were looking at something. Yeah, I agree,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: and I was really excited. Uh. I get accused by
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: my colleague Matt of being Mr. Public a lot of times.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I tend to be on the public side of a
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  Speaker 1: lot of bets, and and it's true. It's it's a
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: fair accusation. I was really excited to be on the
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: other side of this one, to to be on the Celtics.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: They were a team that we had been writing. I
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: was on Celtics preseason. We we both bet Matt and
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I both bet them during the season to come out
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: of the East, to to get the title. And it
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: just it felt like the right It felt like a
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: team that was looking really good. Chad, I'm not only
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: going to own Celtics in six. The last time I
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: was on the favorites was before the Western Conference Finals
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: and you asked me, Brandon, Warriors in five over the
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: maps Simon. You said, Warriors one of the easiest bets
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: that that your guys had ever made. Chad. You asked
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: me Warriors in five and I said I don't like it,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: and you told me I was fired. Well, my paychecks
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: are still coming in so I think that didn't happen yet,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: but you got me on Warriors in five and Warriors
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: in six on back to back. I literally have a
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Warrior's basketball over this shoulder and a Steph Curry book
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: over that shoulder. I'm wearing a Steph Curry shirt right now,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: and I bet against the Warriors, Chad. I am proud
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: to work for a person who knows the Warriors even
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: better than I, a shoe hoops fan knows them myself. Uh.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: It was great for his legacy, great for the team.
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  Speaker 1: I was glad to enjoy the win despite being wrong
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  Speaker 1: about Boston. Okay, I have a lot of stress this
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: week because of how much draft and tel I'm trying
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: to store through. Can we not maybe throw up on
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: top of it? Well, let's get to it. Let's do it,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: because Matt, to your credit, you did break some draft
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: news this week. UH, and you had a story on
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Action Network about uh Paolo Bancaro and the what's happening
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: with his draft odds? To set the scene, you know,
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  Speaker 1: the consensus number one basically since the um since the
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: lottery UH positions were announced, Jabari Smith number one, chet
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Homegren number two, chat Homegren from Gonzaga, Jabari Smith from Auburn,
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  Speaker 1: Paula ban Carrey from Duke number three. Matt Matt Moore,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: explain what's happening right now? So I started on sun Day.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: On Sunday, I started getting text about, Hey, hearing some
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: stuff that ban Caro is in play for number one. Now,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: we have been told pretty much repeatedly those of us
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: that like followed, try and follow these circles in the league,
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  Speaker 1: all the noise that the magic had not made up
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: their mind. That was true two weeks ago. It was
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: true on Saturday. The last time I checked was that
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I heard that the magic had not made up their
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: mind on who the number one pick is going to be.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: On Sunday, I started hearing that bank Caro might be
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: a possibility at number one, more so than he was before.
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  Speaker 1: And then the money starts coming in. On Sunday afternoon,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: palabank Caro was plus six six hundred sixteen to one
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: at most books to go number one. By Monday morning,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: he was plus nine hundred or shorter. By Monday afternoon
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: he was plus four hundred or shorter, and last night
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: and as of this morning when we're recording this on Tuesday,
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  Speaker 1: he is less than plus three hundred, often plus two
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  Speaker 1: fifty or shorter to go number one. It's across all
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: of the books. I talked to bed MGM that took
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: a four percent increase in handle. I start to win
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: bet that tracked thirty seven different bets on Bancaro to
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: go number one in a twenty four hour period. Every
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: book I've checked in with Superbook opened early on this
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: and and on Monday, and they immediately shot the odds down. Fandal,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: You've seen the exact same odds movement. The books have
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: all in syncrosity been moving Bancaro down and down and down,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: to the point where now chat Homegren has longer odds
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: than Bancaro. The question that you have is, okay, is
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: this because there's still no indication that Bancaro is actually
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the choice from Orlando. There's some rumors that he's in
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: play for it, but not the guy. My understanding is
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: that Bancarro has not worked out for Orlando. Jabari Smith
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: has worked out for Orlando. We don't know about chat Homegren.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Chat Homegren's medicals are in question. The big takeaway here
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: is that there's a lot of uncertainty between those three
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: guys for the number one pick, depending on what number
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: you get them, Matt, there's value on all three right now.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: There's a consensus that Jabari is probably still in the lead,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: but ban Caro is absolutely in play and home runs
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: odds of moves so much to where I have to
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: think there's a little bit of value on home grun
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: because many consider him to be as valuable as in
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the other two. This is a fascinating situation. I don't
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: remember seeing this much movement across every book in twenty
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: four hours the week of the draft. Simon professional better
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: when you see this happening, What is your take on
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: the moves? There's a lot that goes into it. It's
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: not just him to be their first pick of role,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: it's also people betting on him to be a top
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: three pick. I mean, again, that's a crazy amount of
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: movement for a twenty four hour period. But I'll tell
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: you what. I talked to a guy who does a
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: lot of our NBRA coverage, and he was talking to
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: a couple of scouts. Who has the upside here? I
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a great player in the NBA.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I like his upside, but is he gonna be ever
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: a top ten, top twenty player in the league. No,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think so, it's just it just doesn't work
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: that way. I think it's an interesting the movement, but honestly,
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: it's expected. It's just looking from are away, it's not
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: as crazy because it's kind of expected where these guys
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: seem like they don't know either. No one really knows
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: what the hell is Magic team is gonna really do.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So these these pros know something like that amount of
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: money to come in at that time. I talked to
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: you all the time, Chad, when is when do I
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: work from midnight to six am? That's not me. That's
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: the most professional groups. So they know something. There's something
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: going on here. So I love that these guys were
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: having these guys on today because it was so cool
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: reading Mattmore's article because it's like that's real time line movement,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: that's no bs so something. I want to get your
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: thoughts on this because one of the things that I
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: thought is okay, and there's probably value on Bank Caro,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Like this is what we kind of came to on
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the Buckets podcast, is like there's value, there was value
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: on bankcarre at one, like that number was wrong that
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: he was enough and play, and it's probably value on
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: him at nine one and seven to one. One of
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the things that I do kind of wonder about is
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: if there's been any what you think the likelihood of
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the pros coming in because my understanding is that a
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: lot of this was sharp movement. It wasn't public money
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: like this was sharp groups that these were taking money
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: from predictably, right, Why would the public all of a
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: sudden jump on one side. I think they tailed it
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: later and that's why we moved from like plus four
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: hundred plus seven hundred down to plus three hundred. But
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: is there a chance that the books also we're looking
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: to Steam Bank Caro because they thought there was a
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: good value there with the possibility of coming back on
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Jabari Smith now that his number has dropped from minus
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: three hundred down to a minus onet. That's exactly what
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: they did, Like you used, nailed it perfectly, So they
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: don't care. They don't care if he goes number one
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: now they already got the value. I'm right there with you.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I think it's the hardest part about especially about doing
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: these kind of shows where it's like, yeah, I'm with them,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I would bet that Steam I think that's a good
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: number still, But man, that's tough when you're telling something
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: to take the number. It was you plus two fifty
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: right now compared to when he was, you know, just
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: even three hours aghen I woke up, he was plus
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: four hundred plus five hundred some books. So it's again,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: it's tough position to tell people to bet that number.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: You just said it. These guys have already hit their
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: position and now they're just gonna hedge it because it's
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: ken what is a minus one twenty now for be
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: the first book overall? A Jabari is MIAs one fifty
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: apollos plus two number one. It just moved from my
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: It just moved from MIAs one florty MIAs one fifty
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: while we're recording. So that's what's gonna be so crazy
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: is the next couple of days. It's just like money
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: is gonna be keep coming in on these rumors. It
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: is interesting to me that the draft has become and
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I said this off the top, has become such a
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: big betting event entirely based on speculation. Simon, you're connected.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: You know, you are a professional better who pulls from
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: a lot of sources, and you work with a lot
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: of sources, work with a lot of other betters who
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: have different coverage areas, right, So how do your guys
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: know in the same way, Matt, how do you know
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: when you're getting legit information from people on NBA teams
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: and scouts and when you're getting smoke screens that you
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: know you've got to sort of separate what you are
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: hearing from what's real trial and error. I mean, there's
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of that, but I would say after a
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: couple of years, honestly, you don't. It's not like you
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: need a huge group of guys. You just need the
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: right guys. So I would say when NBA, there's certain
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: people that I talked to. When they speak, I listen
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: and then you see things certain fall into place, and
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: they said it a couple of weeks ago. That's when again,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: after years of doing that, you're just like, Okay, this
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: is I don't need to listen or read all these
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: other guys. I can literally talk to this one guy
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: and get pretty good information. Because the NBA is more unique,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: and again, the NFL is the NFL combine. That's where
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: a lot of good information comes on the draft. The
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: NBA has the Vegas League. They have all these parties
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: where they get together, especially the NBA final parties, so
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: apparently there's just so much information that's trafficked, like in
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks where that's different the NFL.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: The NFL has a long break until we have our draft.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: So that's why it's really cool watching this in a
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: lifetime because again we can just say it's all smoke.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think it is. I think someone knows something
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: clearly that this kid has risen up their draft for
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: because the magic, I've kept it so quiet and it's
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: again it's interest here met Moore was going to say,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: because it's a lot of information being thrown around right now,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: and I don't know how he's dealing with it, because
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: there's gotta be a lot of bus inside there for
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: the magic themselves are putting out there just throw people
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: off the scent. It's nerve wracking. Um, it's annoying a
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: lot of the time. The two things that I've kind
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: of tried to rely on is try and make sure
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: that you hear it from two people that you don't
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: think operating the same circles that you feel like, Okay,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: I don't think this guy heard something from the same
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: person that this other guy heard from. And then the
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: other thing that I try and focusing on is repeated information.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: So last year we hit Scottie Barnes going to Toronto.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: That was a good hit for the Action Network crew.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Um I heard Barnes killed the workout an interview in
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Toronto days after the lottery, and then they were Toronto
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: was mentioned again and then again and then again, And
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: it was in the midst of all this, like it
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: could be this, it could be this, it could be Toronto,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: could go here Toronto. Look at the trade the pick.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: But the one piece of information that kept coming through
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: as they really like Scottie Barnes, And you try and
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: hit those patterns, I think, especially in the betting space,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: that's where I try and focus on a lot is
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: can I find consistent information across sources that I can
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: piece together and go there seems to be a consistent
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: message here. But so like you talk about smoke screen,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: yesterday the big news was like the King's basically came
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: out and held a press conference waving little Keegan Murray flags.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Like Gavoni from ESPN, one of the most respected, probably
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: the most respected draft expert in the World Formula of
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Draft Express rights on ESPN that the beck Ground DV
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: has taken alike in to Keyan Murray, and that Mike
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Brown has warmed up to Keenan Murray, and I hear
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: from people that Kegan Murray is going up spaces. But
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: then here's the consistent thing, though, is that what we've
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: heard all along is the Kings want to trade this pick.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: The Kings want a win now guy. And so that's
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: one where I'm like, do I think the Kings are
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: taking Keegan Murray? No, I think the Kings are probably
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: trading it to somebody who does want Kegan Murray, because
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I've heard the Spurs and the Pacers are both very
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: interested and want to trade off, and so they're trying
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to drive up that price. And trying to sort through
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: these things is really difficult because everyone is slinging something
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• 19:00
  Speaker 1: their topics I want to hit because I do want
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: to hit some of the trade rumors because that has
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: impact on the draft. And I do want to hit
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: some futures market stuff for NBA title because there's been
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of conversation about that in the last couple
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: of days. Um, but as we are thinking about Jabari Smith,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Paula Banko, chet home Grin, what are the bets down
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: the board? Brandon, you first that you're thinking about that
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: might have more value since the top of the board
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: is what's going to get all the attention. Yeah, so
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I I in this, you know, is regarding the the
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: intel and how do we sort through it all on
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: the NBA draft. I like to do kind of what
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: you and Simon do on the favorite. So I like
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: to bet on the unpredictability, the gross factor, Like whenever
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: something looks locked in and the number goes away up
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and it's like, oh, here we go a polo the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: number three, it's and at minus five minus the thousand
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: for much of the process, Jade and Ivy the sure
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: thing at number four. Nothing is a sure thing. Never
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: anything is a sure thing. You can't be sure at
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: number three and four when we don't know who's going
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: on one and two. It logically doesn't make sense. So
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: I end up getting a lot of things wrong because
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I'm willing to play a lot of these longer plus numbers.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: So one of that magic Taco. Matt said a lot
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: of things about Kegan Murray. I agree with all of them.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Kegan Murray is a really good player. He's a known commodity.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the over on Keegan Murray at five and
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm getting that a plus number something close
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: to two to one now because there's so much talk
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: about him going in the top five. But here's what
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: I think I know about the top five. There's those
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: three big guys. They're definitely going the top five. There's
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Jade and Ivy. We think that he's almost certainly going
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: to top five. That's four. There's only five picks in
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the top five. I'm pretty good at math that five
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: out of five? Is it? That only leaves one spot
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: for Kegan Murray. I think Keagan's a good play. He's
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: like a Tobias Harris to teach you Warren type, but
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: he's older. He would be the second oldest top five
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: draft pick in the last nine NBA drafts. We don't
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: draft older college players. You know, Sam, you talked about
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the the American thing that to me is a red flag.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: An old player, a junior basically by age, almost a senior,
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: that would be really rare here. So you look for Okay, well,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: if it doesn't happen, what's the reason Benedic Mathron could
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: go there? Dyson Daniels, Shaden Sharp, younger upside guys. That's
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: what we see in NBA drafts. I'm willing to bet
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: on uncertainty. Maybe it's the smoke screen, maybe it's the
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Kegan Murray thing. Maybe it's a team fell in love
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: with one of those young guys. But when when there's
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: a very narrow path. It's got to be this way.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Kegan Murray has to fit in this one slot to
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: hit the under. I know that's what we all think
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: is going to happen. I'll play the other side because
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: I'm getting better out there. I like that one. One other.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: My favorite pick on the board right now is Oakak
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Boggy over thirteen and a half. Boggy is another good
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: known commodity. He played at Kansas. He won the national
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: championship with them. He is twenty two years old. He's
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: a knockdown shooter. Every NBA team wants a guy like
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a Boggy who can shoot, who can come in and
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: play right away, easy case, done and done. Slot him
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: into your lineup again. The NBA draft at the top
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: is about youth and about upside. There are a lot
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: of wings in this draft. Is a really interesting wing draft.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Here guys on the wing like a Boggy that I
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: know we're gonna go ahead of him as far as
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: we know. Bennedic Matherin, Johnny Davis, Dyson Daniels, Shaden Sharp,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: A J. Griffin. Those are probably top ten picks. Those
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: are guys gonna go ahead of a Boggy. I like
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: MELOCHI Brainham from a house state, a lot usman jaying
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: the international guy is a guy getting a ton of
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: buzz lately. I am betting on those guys by fading
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: a Boggy because again, there's only thirteen picks in the
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: top thirteen and there's gonna be some big guys and
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: some other players in there. I think that is important there.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: But I like the over on Acreag Boggy. He's a
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: good player. We're not betting on will the player be
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: good or not. We're betting on the value and where
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: will the intel kind of force things? And I think
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: it's important on these bets. Look at the number. If
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: you think a guy has to go in the top
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: five or the top thirteen, count the players out. There's
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: only so many slots for guys to fit in. And
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: no too that books want you to bet books. No,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: we want to bet the unders. That's more fun. We
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: want to bet the guy to go high in the draft.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: So I usually try to trend toward the over if
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: I can. Because of that reason, I think that Bogy
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: is an interesting case study. Last year, Io Desumu had
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: a great year for the line. I All American consensus
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: top point guard in college basketball. Team went in with
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: the number one seed, didn't perform in the tournament. Io
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: drops to the second round, ends up being second team
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: All Rookie for the Bulls. Had an incredible year. Um,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: it was a little bit older, right, the ceiling might
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: not have been as high as some of the players
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: taken ahead of him in the first round. That's where
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: guys start to outsmart themselves, right, And like, look at
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: what Boggy did throughout the tournament winning a national title.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: He played well in the tournament. Like, sometimes you gotta
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: get a player who just knows how to play the
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: game and is ready to contribute. And I feel like
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: that You're probably right, Brandon. I also feel like this
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: is where people get a little too excited about potential. Yeah, absolutely,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: because you're looking at you know, Okay, well, Malachai Brandham,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: he's only nineteen. What will he be three years from
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: now when he is the age of Boggy already? Is
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: what's fine? But I also have to play the player
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the next three years, and I bog you can play
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: for me right now. You know, he's the exact sort
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: of guy that your Desmond Baine comes to mind, a
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: guy that a lot of people NBA draft loved a
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: few years ago, and he slipped and then what's he
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: doing Now? He's playing huge minutes in the playoffs for
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: the Grizzlies as like a key part of their their franchise.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: And and then we do a year or two later.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: How did Desmond being a fall? He hits shots, he
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: plays defense. How did it happen? Well, this is how
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: it happens. You're taking the upside and in the NBA
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: is interesting that number four teen is really important. You're
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: in the lottery because you missed the playoffs. When you
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: slip past the top four teen, now you are unless
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: the pick was traded. Now you're being added to a
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: team that doesn't probably need a franchise superstar. They need
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: an ox check boggy, a guy to just come in
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: and play a role. And so that's where suddenly you're
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: in a winning situation. You're not the guy, you're the
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: fourth guy. You're taking open shots, not creating your shots.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: So it's a much better team context too. So yeah,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: I'll take the over on a Boggy, and then I'll
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: take the under on on didn't we what do we
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: do with this guy? Like? How do we pass on him, Like,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: I'll take both sides of that equation because it's gonna
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: play into both angles. I think. Yeah, That's why I
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: love the draft though. It's like you never know the
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: rule upside these players. I mean, one of my favorite
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: stories ever always be this kid came out of college.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: He was an incredible three point shooter. He was skinny
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: as hell, he had really bad ankles, and he just
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: won his fourth NBA title last week. It's like you
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: never know, Like Steph Curry. I remember they talked about
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: it if he would have played just five years early
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: in the NBA. They didn't have the science for what
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: they figured out with is they literally fixed the way
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: he would land after he would shoot the ball, like
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: that was sparresually. His big weakness is that, like he
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: kept rolling ankles, and it's like incredible thing like these
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: these teams don't know, like it's it is a craft shoot.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Like That's what I always love these NBA drafts. I'm
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: a six years fan. We spent years trusting the process,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: tanking to win these drafts, and what did we end
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: up with? Really, we ended up with him beat. I
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: know when we got MAXI here down the road. But
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: it's like these teams we strike out constantly. Ben Simmons,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: we struck out Fulls, we struck out. It's like I
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: love the draft because it's like no one cares right now.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: It's just the high of highs. Like we have such high,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: happy hopes for these players right now, but we know
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: the deal. It's the NBA. There's what twenty really dominant players,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: and you're lucky, so lucky if you can just find
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: one of them. Steph Curry hard to argue right now
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: that he isn't a top ten all time NBA player.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: That is that is the only conversation that anyone has
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: had since the Warriors won the finals. I've been out
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: with friends. It's the constant conversation. I've seen it on Twitter.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: It's the constant conversation, Steph Curry, top ten player all time. Uh,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: you can't argue with it. It's like it's transformational. Matt
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Moore's rolling his eyes. You're with me, I'm with you. Look,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily know why we didn't have this conversation earlier.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: I've never been a Steph guy. I needed one more though.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Does he like he had three titles and is the
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: greatest shooter of all time in which the entire point
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: of the sport is to put the little round thing
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: in the hole with the net. Like, he's literally the
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: best at the number one most important thing ever. He's valid,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: he's he's verified and certified with three titles already now
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: he gets four. Like to me, he's already in that conversation, like,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: he's more impactful than this has been the thing. You know,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I judge everything on what's your impact on winning? Do
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: you do you impact the game in a way that
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: makes your team win. There's no question Steph Curry is
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: the most impactful offensive player since Michael Jordan's and his
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: offense is so impactful it makes up for the defensive
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: side of the things where he's not even bad, he's
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: just not very good. So uh, to me, I absolutely
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: think that Steph Curry is a top ten player of
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: all time. I think you can put a real argument
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: for him over Magic as good as as as amazing
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: as Magic was. I think when you get into these conversations,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: your person greatness and so it's okay to just say, like,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: these are all incredible players. You're not insulting anyone, but
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry is the greatest player of all time. He's
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: a consummate winner. He's willing to do with so many
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: guys that could have been great would not, which is
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: work off ball and move if you just move. If
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook was willing to be earlier before all the
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: knee injuries, was just willing to be like, yeah, no,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: I'll just cut, I'll cut to the rim and catch
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: lobs and do all these things. How different is it
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: rather than taking defense off and wanting to dribble, dare
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: out of the ball, curries, work ethic, his leadership. He's
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: such a magnetic personality for that team. I think you
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: cannot separate him from Draymond. Draymond's impact on him is huge,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: but steps the greatest shooter of all time and a
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: four time champion. He's top ten, no doubt. I do
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: think you hit on something really interesting, which is, to me,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna be a top ten player, there has
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: to be an element in your game that revolutionized the game, right.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: And you can say that about Michael Jordan's you can
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: say it about Magic, you can say it about Larry Bird,
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: you can say it about Wilt, you can say it
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: about Kareem You can say it about Lebron, and you
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: can say it about Staff, like all of them had
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: an element of their game that was entirely revolutionary and
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: had an impact on the way the game is played,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: the way the game is played on the court, how
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: teams draft, how teams defend. Steph did that a percent. Also,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I'm getting tired of the staff bashing on defense. The
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: guy played really well defensively in the finals. He is bigger,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: he's more physical. He stayed in front of his player
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: like his the guy he's defending. On offense, he shuffled
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: his feet like he was there, like he was in
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: the lane, taking physical poundings as much as Andrew Wiggins,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: who was extraordinary enough said I don't need a response.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Here's my question. Right now, two trades being discussed. One
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: everyone's saying it's a fatal company Rudy Gobert to the
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bulls. What I'm trying to unpack is, what's the
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: other side of that trade if the Bulls give up
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Patrick Williams. To me, that is insanity because he is
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: built for today's NBA. The ceiling on him is huge.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: He's twenty one years old, has so many physical gifts,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: and even in limited time, he could have a huge impact.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: You can see that when he got back. And if
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: you have Patrick Williams, a Lonzo Bald Damar zach Lavine
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: as a foursome that is incredibly powerful, that is long,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: it's defensive, it can run really fast, like they are
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: a powerful group. I don't want to give up Patrick
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Williams for Rudy Gobert. So to me, the trade is
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Rusovich Kobe the eight teenth overall pick for Rudy Gobert.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore and my writer, am I wrong? I think
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: you're wrong. I think Here's what Here's what I know
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: on Gilbert. The market for him was really strong when
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: it opened about a month ago, and Atlanta and Toronto
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: or two of the teams that were really interested, they've
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: backed off a little bit. That doesn't mean they can't
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: come back to the table, but they've backed off a
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: little bit, and so there's been a lot of momentum
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: that like it's gonna be Chicago. I've asked people that
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: are familiar with our tourist, carnasovis um I know a
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: little bit of him from him working in Denver, and
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the question I asked people was he's Gobert, a Carnas
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Sovis type of guy, and they were all emphatically yes
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: that he values length, defensive i Q and the ability
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: to really be a foundational piece, and Gobert checks all
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: those boxes. Okay, so this checks out logically that the
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: interest is real here. There has been a growing sense
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: around the league that the most likely destination is that
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: he's probably gonna end up with Chicago, and there has
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: been kind of this idea. I don't think any AGE
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: is gonna back off the Patrick Williams requirement. I don't
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: I personally don't think that's gonna happen. I think that
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a requirement that Patrick Williams is included
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: in the trade. AGE wants good talent, picks and prospects.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Chicago is one of the only teams that has that
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: combination of ailable where they can provide Vuchovich as a
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: as a win now player, Patrick Williams as a prospect,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: and some lower value draft picks. The fact they don't
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: have high draft picks is part of this equation. That's
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: why you have to compensate with something like Williams. Do
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: I agree with you that they shouldn't trade Patrick Williams.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I do I agree with you on that, but there
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: has been kind of the idea that eventually Chicago is
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: likely to go ahead and commit to that deal. I
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: will tell you that Minnesota has in recent days, over
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks, really gotten involved with the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: idea of Gobert and has bandoned about a number of
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: different options that might help in terms of, you know,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: if Minnesota sets a lower bar that helps Chicago being like, hey,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is not offering you know whoever, We're not offering
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Patrick Williams in this deal. But it can work the
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: other way in terms of being like, look, if you're
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: not gonna give you Patrick Williams, I'm just calling up
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and taking that deal. So to me, if I
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: had to put odds on it, I would put the
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: Bulls at a small minus number to get go Bear.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: The only reason it's not large jurors Danny Ames drives
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: a really hard bargain and that's hard for anybody to
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: deal with. But as of right now, with where we're
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: talking about right now, I expect Ritty Gobert to be
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: a Chicago Bull by the time that the season starts,
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: and I do expect Patrick Williams to be part of
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: that deal with the caveat that if he can get
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: anged to back off. I haven't seen our tourists in
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: this situation. Maybe it doesn't happen, but right now I
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: think Patrick Williams winds up being part of that deal.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: I hate that trade. I hate it to me. It's
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: like he will shouldn't should be an untradeable asset at
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: this point, and then you find out is he Kyle
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Kuzma when he was untradeable from the Lakers like four
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: or five years ago, or is he Tyrese Maxie when
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: he was untradeable from the Sixers uh in the last
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: couple of years. I think that the ceiling is Tyrese Maxie,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: not Kyle Kuzma. I would hate to see Patrick Williams
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: leave the Bulls. Brandon, do you have any opinion on this?
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: I do so. I am famously a Chicago Bulls fan
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: that grew up in North Dakota as a Minnesota sports fan,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: so I think I also famously had a Utah Jazz
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: to win the West ticket that is still, by the way,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: only ten wins away from cashing. Rudy Gobert coming to
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: only one of two teams, both of whom are my teams.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: I feel like his penance for how terrible that bet
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: was that Rudy's gonna end up on either one of them.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: But Rudy is a great player, like Rudy is a elite,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: elite defensive player. I'm with Matt on the price. I
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: think when you look at the price of what Gilbert
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: gonna take, look vouch, Kobe and a draft pick is
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the sort of trade that we make as fans to say, well,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: here's some stuff like which is pretty good. Right, he
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: was an All Star and Kobe White he was a
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: high pick, even though we don't really want him anymore,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: but he was pretty good. And number eighteen, that's a
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: draft pick that could be anyone that could be, that
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: could be honest, someday, Just take the right guy. He'll
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: be right, have our stuff, give us the guy that
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: we want. That is kind of how that offer reads
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: to me. The Bulls are not rich in assets. The
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Bulls asset is Patrick Williams. That's it. If you're trading
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: with Chicago a great player like Rudy Gobert is in
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the regular season, you have to get a big asset.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: And I think Patrick Williams is the asset to get.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: I'll say this, Chad, I'm in Chicago Land. The Bulls
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: were a lot of fun to watch this year until
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: they all got hurt. If you get Rudy and then
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: you get Alex Cruso Alonzo ball healthy on the perimeter,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be a really, really good defense. Rudy is
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: valuable offensively, the way he opens up as a rim
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: runner with Tamar, with Levine hopefully back. I think that
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: that's an assumption at this point that team is gonna
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: win a lot of games next year. I think the
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: reason that you make the trade the reason you give
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: up Pat. Even though all that I agree with all
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: what you're saying, Chad, he's valuable. He's where the modern
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: game is going. This is a timeline thing. You're in
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: on tomorrow, You're in on Voch. This is the team
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: you've come did too. Rudy Gobert makes this version of
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: the team way better right now. This is the team
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: you committed to. Then I think you just go for
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: it all right, Well that's fair. Uh, we've only got
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: a couple of minutes left. Um. Two things that we
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: need to get to. One in thirty seconds. Tell me
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: where is Kyrie Irving playing next year? Each of you
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: gets to answer, and then we need to spend about
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: two minutes on NBA futures. Brandon, thirty seconds clock starts. Now,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: where is Kyrie playing next year? I'm taking Kyrie to
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: the next just because I don't know. I don't understand.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: I don't understand Kyrie. I don't understand the next I
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: don't understand how it's all gonna work. So sure, of course,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: Kyrie to the next. He's leaving Brooklyn. That seems to
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: be done. Maybe it's l a. I just feel like
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Kyrie belongs as a nick just dazzle Madison Square Garden
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: crowds every night and route to wins and a play
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: off non exit. I think it's a perfect match. Kyrie
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: to New York. Matt Moore, you've got thirty seconds. The
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: clock is going. Tell me now, where is Kyrie next year?
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: Venus where he's a fry cook? I'll say the Los
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Angeles Lakers. That's been rumored for months. There's been a
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: lot of smoke around Kyrie making up with Lebron over
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: his departure in two thousand and seventeen. There's been a
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: lot of conversations about that the Lakers obviously need an
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: injection of talent and reconfigure to get back on top.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Lebron will approve that move. That, to me is the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: simplest answer here, that he's gonna wind up as a
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Laker. Very good, Okay, all right, Nixon Lakers.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Which seems to be the consensus. How those trades we
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: put them into our mythical trade machine actually work out,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: nobody really knows. It's a lot of ifs to get there. Um,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: let's talk about NBA futures for a second. A lot
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: of conversations about how the market is moving right now. Um,
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: and Celtics Warriors at the top. Simon, if you've made
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: any NBA futures bets, have you heard about NBA futures
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: that where the value is right now? Warriors, uh five
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: to one, Celtics six and a half to one, Bucks,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Clippers nets seven to one. I wouldn't touch anything. I'll
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: just wait until January February. I bet the Warriors again.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, we all know this is gonna play out.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: That's just the way it is. I'm just a big
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: fan of what they are right now, Like a full
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: season to Clay Dre Steph, Matt Moore, NBA Futures, bet
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: three teams right and then the market opens, because that's
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: how I do things about Warriors last year plus twelve hundred.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: So I bet Clippers plus eight fifty sixers plus sixteen hundred,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: uh and the Bucks at plus eight hundred. I'll look
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: for a Warrior spot. But like Simon, I think there's
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: a shorter I think it's a longer spot somewhere after
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: free agency when everyone gets enamored with moves or whatever else.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: I took the three teams. I think that will probably
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: shorten and I'm waiting for Golden State to get a
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: longer number. Step will have an injury, Draymond al and injury,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: and everyone will freak out and then we'll bet them
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: then and live during the season at no longer number.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: There you're moving lines because the Bucks are a plus
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: seven hundred. I was wrong. The Clippers are a plus
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: seven fifty. Looking at vandel six are still a plus six. Brandon,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: one minute, give me your teams that you've bet. NBA
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: future Son, I'm just doing one. I like the Bucks.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: I think if you take the playoffs. So we just
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: watched and everything we knew going in and played out
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: a hundred times. I think the Milwaukee Bucks win the
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: championship the most times out of there, Chris Milton stays
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: healthy and they get past Boston and seven. I know
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Matt thinks they get past Boston seven if they get there,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: and I think the Bucks are a tough matchup for
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: the Warriors. Specifically, they don't have a Janice answer. Nobody
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: has a honest answer. I think the Bucks are still
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: the best team. Janna's is the best player. He's the
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: guy that is unstoppable in the playoffs. That was even
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: the case this year. They just ran out of other options.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: So I like Milwaukee. I'm not gonna go hard on it.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: What I learned with futures this year especially is you
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: can get up out o price later. You can await
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: because the season is eternal, and these numbers are going
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: to go up and down. Someone goes eighteen and two,
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: someone rips off a winning streak, someone gets injured. They're
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: gonna be chances to about the number later. It doesn't
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: matter that you're right now. It matters that you get
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: the best value. So I like the box, but I
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: think that there will be a chance to get them
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: at value later in the year. Two. Alright, guys, we've
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: covered it all. NBA futures, trade possibilities, betting the NBA
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: draft for Matt Moore, for Brandon Anderson, for my bff,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Noman.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: your podcast. Rate review, subscribe, leave us a five star review,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: I love you.