Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Trump Unchains Crypto?⛓️Weekend Outlook🚀
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Trump has unchained Crypto. Today, we're going to be breaking
- 0:02Speaker 1: down a whole bunch of news. You don't want to
- 0:04Speaker 1: miss it. Let's just jump right in. I do want
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- 0:40Speaker 1: I want to lead off with a couple of points
- 0:42Speaker 1: right here, and that is the S and P five
- 0:44Speaker 1: hundred futures have surged nearly one percent. This is new
- 0:47Speaker 1: record highs following a cooler than expected a September CPI.
- 0:52Speaker 1: That's right, we got a CPI report. This is a
- 0:54Speaker 1: rare exception during this shutdown, but it's in. And then,
- 0:58Speaker 1: of course, right here, Pop comes in and says the
- 1:01Speaker 1: government just reported on inflation three percent, but that's wrong.
- 1:05Speaker 1: Trueflation is showing an inflation that's actually two point three.
- 1:08Speaker 1: And if you look at the broken metric around CPI.
- 1:11Speaker 1: We've talked about this quite a bit on our show.
- 1:14Speaker 1: Is when you look at true faflation, right here is
- 1:17Speaker 1: the year trading down on that low which was back
- 1:21Speaker 1: here in April skyrocketing, if you want to call it that.
- 1:24Speaker 1: But this is considerably down and starting to go sideways.
- 1:28Speaker 1: So has it stabilized is the question? And if it has,
- 1:32Speaker 1: then this gets into the point of where the FED
- 1:34Speaker 1: can maybe start cutting or continuing cut rates to kind
- 1:38Speaker 1: of save the job market and make sure the economy
- 1:40Speaker 1: doesn't fall into harm's way. Another thing that it pushes
- 1:45Speaker 1: is how is this data going to be looked at
- 1:47Speaker 1: in the future.
- 1:48Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip with Tom Lee.
- 1:51Speaker 3: Do you throw it all out now and say we
- 1:53Speaker 3: can't use this or how do you view it?
- 1:55Speaker 2: Yes.
- 1:55Speaker 4: One of the issues is, of course, algorithmic systems and
- 1:58Speaker 4: quant systems take that survey result and they put on
- 2:00Speaker 4: trades and the FED has to react to that because
- 2:03Speaker 4: that's the FED cares about anchored expectations, and.
- 2:06Speaker 3: There's just three surveys. They look at that. The New
- 2:08Speaker 3: York Fed and Conference Board HUMISH changed their methodology. They
- 2:13Speaker 3: used to do telephone calls, they now do one hundred
- 2:16Speaker 3: percent online. They mail it out, email it to people.
- 2:21Speaker 3: Are the surveys only being emailed to certain people now
- 2:24Speaker 3: or are they only you know? Is there a finger
- 2:28Speaker 3: on the scale. We don't know, but it's the process.
- 2:30Speaker 3: Has I think become polluted? Yeah, and so do you
- 2:33Speaker 3: guys now just disqualified and don't look at that survey anyone.
- 2:36Speaker 4: Well, we still reflect it because, believe it or not,
- 2:41Speaker 4: most of our clients will point to the say, tum
- 2:43Speaker 4: inflation's out of control.
- 2:44Speaker 3: Look what the UMISH says.
- 2:45Speaker 4: And then if as I try to explain to them
- 2:47Speaker 4: the methodology from they're like, how come you're the only
- 2:50Speaker 4: one pointing this out?
- 2:51Speaker 3: So we're smart?
- 2:52Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think prediction markets are the answer. So
- 2:56Speaker 4: I think polymarkets of the world, where they're like, what
- 2:59Speaker 4: is the CPI a year from now? Might be better
- 3:02Speaker 4: signal than using these surveys. I mean, I think that's
- 3:06Speaker 4: it's going to push us towards alternative Like even using
- 3:08Speaker 4: trueflation is better than looking at CPI.
- 3:13Speaker 1: All right, So I'm in agreement with this. It's what
- 3:15Speaker 1: we talk about on this channel probably for the last
- 3:18Speaker 1: couple of years, is that the CPI data typically is
- 3:21Speaker 1: either underreported or in many cases already wrong when you
- 3:26Speaker 1: get it. And in all cases with the FED, it's
- 3:28Speaker 1: always lagging data, which is another problem in itself. And
- 3:33Speaker 1: Tom goes in to talk about prediction markets, and I
- 3:35Speaker 1: would agree with that. I think prediction markets could be
- 3:38Speaker 1: a big bellweather to the future of data, but the
- 3:41Speaker 1: real data is going to come with some sort of oracle.
- 3:43Speaker 1: That's the link obviously with chain link, what's going on
- 3:46Speaker 1: with true inflation. I agree with that as well. I
- 3:48Speaker 1: think there's going to be something that gets integrated into
- 3:51Speaker 1: some of the key reporting systems around labor That would
- 3:54Speaker 1: be interesting because that opens up a whole new plethora
- 3:58Speaker 1: of data that we haven't seen outside ADP, and I
- 4:01Speaker 1: think Gusto would be another one that could be done.
- 4:03Speaker 1: But there is some opportunity here to get much better
- 4:06Speaker 1: and more refined data going forward, and prediction markets could
- 4:09Speaker 1: be the key forward for sure. Speaking of that poly market,
- 4:14Speaker 1: this is breaking because this is the CMO of poly
- 4:17Speaker 1: Market talking about there will be a poly market token
- 4:21Speaker 1: and an air drop to boot, so that itself is
- 4:25Speaker 1: going to explode what poly market is doing? All right,
- 4:28Speaker 1: So let's jump over to a poly market and take
- 4:30Speaker 1: a look at the FED raycut potential. This is federate
- 4:34Speaker 1: cuts in twenty twenty five what we're talking about right now.
- 4:37Speaker 1: Zoom in on that for you guys, we've already had
- 4:39Speaker 1: one quarterbasis point. So the point is is two more
- 4:42Speaker 1: October December. Likelihood of January is my question mark, and
- 4:48Speaker 1: right now it was around thirty five to forty percent
- 4:50Speaker 1: for January. That would be three consecutive rate cuts potentially
- 4:53Speaker 1: going into this. So again, this is the FED responding
- 4:56Speaker 1: to what is happening with inflation in general.
- 5:00Speaker 2: Other things you got to look at.
- 5:01Speaker 1: Of course, Peter Shift's out there talking about the annual
- 5:03Speaker 1: price increases by the CPI underestimates the magnitude of the
- 5:06Speaker 1: rise of the design and the index rows three percent
- 5:09Speaker 1: year over year. This is fifty percent above what the
- 5:12Speaker 1: Fed's target rate is. But I do believe, and Darius
- 5:16Speaker 1: and I have talked Darris Dale forty two Macro, go
- 5:17Speaker 1: out and research them. We talked about this before. Is
- 5:20Speaker 1: the likelihood is that the FED is most likely going
- 5:22Speaker 1: to raise their target rate. That would be big because
- 5:26Speaker 1: it would start to restructure the entire system and possibly
- 5:30Speaker 1: do it around collecting new data. That would be the
- 5:32Speaker 1: intriguing part going forward. I want to go to a
- 5:35Speaker 1: clip real quick because this clip will get into the
- 5:38Speaker 1: fact that government shutdown is continuing to impact what's going
- 5:43Speaker 1: on with crypto.
- 5:44Speaker 5: Take a look the SEC and the CFTC. They're operating
- 5:48Speaker 5: with less than ten percent of their staff. So the
- 5:51Speaker 5: technical assistance that the Senate Agriculture Committee needs from the
- 5:54Speaker 5: CFTC to draft this bill isn't there. They are on furlough.
- 5:59Speaker 5: Once we see the government shut down end, which hopefully
- 6:03Speaker 5: will be soon, it's going on quite long here, we'll
- 6:06Speaker 5: have more technical assistance available to help them craft the legislation.
- 6:11Speaker 5: But I do think the government shutdown is slowing down
- 6:13Speaker 5: that process right now.
- 6:15Speaker 1: While it is slowing it down, there are insiders and
- 6:19Speaker 1: people in DC that believe there is work going on
- 6:23Speaker 1: behind the scenes. And obviously we know that from just
- 6:26Speaker 1: what's been happening around the Clarity Act, but also just
- 6:29Speaker 1: the genius side of things when it comes to you know,
- 6:32Speaker 1: the bank lobby that's working overtime right now trying to
- 6:35Speaker 1: take your yield. Go watch our video on that. But
- 6:38Speaker 1: this clip goes into we may get a surprise market
- 6:41Speaker 1: structure bill and here's why.
- 6:42Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 6:44Speaker 6: But I got to ask, anyways, what do you think
- 6:46Speaker 6: in you know, as quickly.
- 6:47Speaker 5: As reasonable possible, reasonably possible.
- 6:49Speaker 6: Six months here, let's get the Democratic and Republican staff
- 6:53Speaker 6: members back in the room. You know, my Republican friends say, well, gosh,
- 6:56Speaker 6: we don't even want to meet with you guys until
- 6:58Speaker 6: you set a date. That seems to me to be backwards,
- 7:01Speaker 6: you know, because of this snap on with this document
- 7:04Speaker 6: getting out and being leaked again, and we lost two weeks.
- 7:08Speaker 6: That was a shame. Let's get them back in the room.
- 7:10Speaker 6: Like this is. I don't want to sound like I'm
- 7:11Speaker 6: a broken record, you know, this is kind of like
- 7:14Speaker 6: the same pitch I'm making right now. Please President Trump,
- 7:17Speaker 6: sit down and let's get the government reopened, and let's
- 7:19Speaker 6: get the healthcare cliff avoided. You're the great deal maker.
- 7:22Speaker 6: We can do it in a couple hours. I did
- 7:25Speaker 6: notice I didn't give you a definitive timeline. I said
- 7:27Speaker 6: that I am very optimistic that once we get folks
- 7:31Speaker 6: in the room. This is I think you're going to
- 7:33Speaker 6: be surprised because one thing about this, having done this
- 7:36Speaker 6: a long time, it's slow, slow, slow, slow, and then
- 7:38Speaker 6: it moves very quickly.
- 7:41Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with Warner is that there is a
- 7:44Speaker 1: somewhat of a pent up demand within our political sphere.
- 7:48Speaker 1: Is that a lot of these deals are still being discussed,
- 7:51Speaker 1: a lot of these UH situations that are causing such
- 7:54Speaker 1: divisiveness are possibly being resolved right now. And of course,
- 7:58Speaker 1: if President Trump can possibly closed the gap there, then
- 8:01Speaker 1: we could see a very big acceleration toward a reopening
- 8:05Speaker 1: and then of course a huge launch into ETF approvals. Obviously,
- 8:10Speaker 1: what we'll see on the Clarity Act all sorts of
- 8:12Speaker 1: things that we'll play into a positive nature on the
- 8:16Speaker 1: crypto market. Looking at the government shutdown ending date right now,
- 8:19Speaker 1: polymarket is pushing it out further to November nineteenth, and
- 8:24Speaker 1: that percentage has now gone up to forty four point
- 8:28Speaker 1: eight percent, So it's definitely climbing as we go into November.
- 8:33Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments, when you guys think
- 8:35Speaker 1: this is going to happen, you think we hit it
- 8:36Speaker 1: before Thanksgiving, Because I think this is going to happen
- 8:39Speaker 1: before Thanksgiving, And that's what Brian was talking about Armstrong
- 8:43Speaker 1: COO at Coinbase was talking about just the other day,
- 8:45Speaker 1: is he thinks that we could get market clarity before Thanksgiving?
- 8:48Speaker 1: And he had this weird smirk on his face. I'm
- 8:50Speaker 1: telling you that he knows something. I don't know what
- 8:52Speaker 1: he knows, but that's what I think.
- 8:54Speaker 2: All right.
- 8:54Speaker 1: So you guys, remember we were talking about this issue
- 8:57Speaker 1: yesterday's show about the three o'clock, which I still felt
- 9:00Speaker 1: like was going to be kind of a nothing burger anyway.
- 9:02Speaker 1: In fact it was. But there was a part in
- 9:05Speaker 1: that interview, in that statement to the press, where Trump
- 9:08Speaker 1: addressed the situation with cz Take a look.
- 9:12Speaker 7: People say that, are you talking about the crypto person?
- 9:16Speaker 7: A lot of people say that he wasn't guilty of anything.
- 9:18Speaker 7: He served four months in jail, and they say that
- 9:21Speaker 7: he was not guilty of anything. That what he did, Well,
- 9:24Speaker 7: you don't know much about crypto. You know nothing about
- 9:27Speaker 7: you know nothing about nothing. You fake news. But let
- 9:30Speaker 7: me just tell you that he was somebody that, as
- 9:33Speaker 7: I was told, I don't know. I don't believe I've
- 9:36Speaker 7: ever met him, but I've been told a lot of support.
- 9:39Speaker 7: He had a lot of support. And they said that
- 9:42Speaker 7: what he did is not even a crime. It wasn't
- 9:45Speaker 7: a crime that he was persecuted by the Biden administration,
- 9:50Speaker 7: and so I gave him a partner at the request
- 9:52Speaker 7: of a lot of very good people.
- 9:53Speaker 1: Remember that CZ struck a deal and this was all
- 9:57Speaker 1: about where he would be in the crypto industry. And
- 10:00Speaker 1: I think that's going to probably end up going away
- 10:02Speaker 1: right now if you look at the possibility of him
- 10:04Speaker 1: Mary's resuming his role at Binance by the end of
- 10:08Speaker 1: the year. This has risen quite a bit since this pardon.
- 10:12Speaker 1: So what are we at thirty eight percent right now?
- 10:14Speaker 1: Zoom in on that for you guys, so you can
- 10:15Speaker 1: kind of see. But that's the kind of spike that
- 10:18Speaker 1: we're talking about right now in terms of polymarket. Now,
- 10:21Speaker 1: Rushard Adams kind of broke this down right here that
- 10:24Speaker 1: he was to the Trump's point, he was unfairly targeted.
- 10:27Speaker 1: But also I'm in agreement with Ryan on this is
- 10:30Speaker 1: that presidential pardons shouldn't be for sale, and we do
- 10:33Speaker 1: know that that is kind of the case that has
- 10:35Speaker 1: taken place. Other than that, you've got to look at
- 10:38Speaker 1: some other things around this pardon. One of course, is
- 10:42Speaker 1: CZ's doing the new bull, potentially a new bull run
- 10:45Speaker 1: for binance because remember bian still is the coinbase for
- 10:50Speaker 1: the rest of the world, so its impact on the
- 10:52Speaker 1: market can be real. And if you look at this
- 10:56Speaker 1: unexpected development obviously since BMB this was in reference to
- 10:58Speaker 1: the pardon percent now back over eleven hundred traders now
- 11:02Speaker 1: calling for this one to be the biggest catalyst.
- 11:04Speaker 2: Of the year.
- 11:05Speaker 1: If Finance can get back in the game, yes, it
- 11:08Speaker 1: would have an impact on the market in general. Other
- 11:11Speaker 1: points that this will roll into is the amount of
- 11:15Speaker 1: fight right now that is happening between DC and of course,
- 11:19Speaker 1: you know Senator Warren, she's got to take a note
- 11:22Speaker 1: of this and go after crypto again.
- 11:24Speaker 2: So what does she do.
- 11:25Speaker 1: She goes in right here and says, yeah, this is
- 11:27Speaker 1: where it's bad guys, you know, letting bad guys go.
- 11:30Speaker 1: And then she gets community noted as saying that you know,
- 11:33Speaker 1: this was the situation, but he did not plead guilty
- 11:37Speaker 1: to money laundering, which is what she was claiming. And
- 11:39Speaker 1: of course cz came back in and responded as well,
- 11:43Speaker 1: after many others had responded. But she can't get her
- 11:45Speaker 1: facts right. Typical things. But Senator Warren is a pro politician.
- 11:49Speaker 1: She understands how to weaponize this stuff and use it
- 11:53Speaker 1: to try to move along talking points within mainstream media
- 11:56Speaker 1: not here, which, of course you know, Senator Warren, You're
- 11:58Speaker 1: welcome to come on any time to talk about crypto
- 12:01Speaker 1: and how good it is for the economy and people.
- 12:03Speaker 1: All right, So who's next, Well, it could be mister
- 12:05Speaker 1: Sam Bankman Freed holding it a ten percent, a little
- 12:08Speaker 1: bit of a wally, but definitely up off the floor
- 12:11Speaker 1: which was around three percent not very long ago.
- 12:14Speaker 2: So I don't know.
- 12:15Speaker 1: Let me have into the comments if you guys think
- 12:17Speaker 1: that SBF is next up on the pardon list coming
- 12:21Speaker 1: out of the White House.
- 12:22Speaker 2: Love to see that, all right.
- 12:23Speaker 1: So one other point that kind of flows into this,
- 12:26Speaker 1: this is Scott Melker kind of talking about Maxine Waters
- 12:29Speaker 1: on the pardon. Of course, Trump is doing massive favors
- 12:32Speaker 1: for crypto criminals who.
- 12:34Speaker 2: Have helped line his pockets.
- 12:37Speaker 1: Oh but we might have forgot something, yeah that, Oh
- 12:41Speaker 1: there was that thing. The Internet just never forgets, right guys,
- 12:44Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it never forgets, never forgets. There'll be memes
- 12:47Speaker 1: of this going on for a while, of course, with
- 12:49Speaker 1: miss Maxine Waters and SBF, and I just wonder how
- 12:53Speaker 1: much this is going to cost SBF to get this pardon.
- 12:57Speaker 1: All right, So with that, you've got Peter's shift going
- 13:00Speaker 1: into the market, trying to get a very thirsty debate
- 13:04Speaker 1: with CZ about gold versus bitcoin, and now.
- 13:08Speaker 2: He wants Elon Musk to do it or Joe Rogan.
- 13:11Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to happen, guys, but I
- 13:13Speaker 2: don't know.
- 13:14Speaker 7: Peter.
- 13:14Speaker 2: You can come on our show.
- 13:15Speaker 1: We're not a Joe Rogan, but we'd be happy to
- 13:18Speaker 1: talk about it because we're a crypto show.
- 13:20Speaker 2: Let's go over to other news.
- 13:21Speaker 1: JP Morgan is going to let clients use bitcoin and
- 13:23Speaker 1: ethereum as collateral for loans.
- 13:26Speaker 2: This will be big if it.
- 13:29Speaker 1: Lines up with what's out there now most likely, and
- 13:32Speaker 1: I would assume this is going to be over collateralized
- 13:34Speaker 1: like most crypto assets because of volatility.
- 13:38Speaker 2: But the fact that.
- 13:38Speaker 1: They're doing this starts to open things up a little bit.
- 13:41Speaker 2: Expected launch my end of this year.
- 13:44Speaker 1: This is going to rely on third party custodian, which
- 13:46Speaker 1: I imagine will be crypto related. And when you look
- 13:49Speaker 1: at this, which is it's building on JPM Morgan's earlier
- 13:52Speaker 1: decision in June to accept crypto exchange trade of fun
- 13:55Speaker 1: ETF says collateral as well. So all of this again
- 13:58Speaker 1: very very positive crypto in general, even though it is
- 14:01Speaker 1: the old guard trying to play into the game. One
- 14:05Speaker 1: other thing to consider here, and this was in reference
- 14:08Speaker 1: to Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statements this week, and this
- 14:13Speaker 1: is in reference to the skinny Master account. Okay, because
- 14:17Speaker 1: this basically gives stable coin issues the ability to bypass banks.
- 14:21Speaker 1: The only reason you need to Wells Pharaoh account is
- 14:24Speaker 1: to paychecks for paychecks and pay bills, right, Okay, most
- 14:26Speaker 1: of you we talked about this a lot. Is that
- 14:28Speaker 1: the minute we get a crypto friendly bank account, whether
- 14:32Speaker 1: it's coming from Robinhood or it's coming from coinbase or
- 14:34Speaker 1: whoever it might be, it will change the game. The
- 14:38Speaker 1: other thing that plays into this is the circumvention of
- 14:41Speaker 1: this issue around stable cooin yield, because the issuers can't
- 14:45Speaker 1: give it to you, but the exchanges right now can.
- 14:47Speaker 1: But the banks they're over here fighting saying wait, no,
- 14:50Speaker 1: we don't want that loophole in there at all.
- 14:52Speaker 2: So maybe the route through this is.
- 14:55Speaker 1: In through these exchanges and right in to DeFi, and
- 14:58Speaker 1: that of course changes things upically, Remember that we're talking
- 15:03Speaker 1: about old banks for mortgages and loans, but now everything
- 15:06Speaker 1: else on coinbase that will tie into DeFi, and it's
- 15:11Speaker 1: the gateway drug which I think anybody under the age
- 15:13Speaker 1: of thirty five and probably people even more that will
- 15:18Speaker 1: go in to DeFi based on these kinds of scenarios.
- 15:21Speaker 1: And all of this is going to lie in one place, guys,
- 15:23Speaker 1: and that's ethereum. Ethereum is going to be the big
- 15:25Speaker 1: winner here. So the banks will fight this, but crypto
- 15:28Speaker 1: will win it.
- 15:29Speaker 2: And I agree.
- 15:29Speaker 1: I think we are at that point in time where
- 15:33Speaker 1: this thing is unstoppable and when it comes to the
- 15:36Speaker 1: dollar and the devaluation of it, nothing stops his train.
- 15:39Speaker 2: As len Alden would.
- 15:40Speaker 1: Say, other points I want to hit on right here,
- 15:43Speaker 1: and that is JP Morgan permitting bitcoin and eth as
- 15:46Speaker 1: loan collateral. They're talking about this. Having worked at Blackrock,
- 15:50Speaker 1: I've seen how these incremental steps from the launch of
- 15:54Speaker 1: the eth ETFs to the use of eth as a
- 15:56Speaker 1: collateral steadily build institutional confidence. So imagine how quickly that
- 16:01Speaker 1: has happened. That's this year twenty twenty five. You've had regulation,
- 16:06Speaker 1: You've had a complete flip by an administration and all
- 16:09Speaker 1: of the instruments that of dominated Wall Street are now
- 16:14Speaker 1: starting to make their way into crypto. And this is
- 16:16Speaker 1: less than one year. Imagine where we are in another
- 16:19Speaker 1: twelve months or possibly twenty four messages clear, high quality
- 16:23Speaker 1: digital assets like eth will become integral to the modern
- 16:27Speaker 1: financial system.
- 16:28Speaker 2: You guys know that.
- 16:28Speaker 1: Because you're ahead of the game, your way out there
- 16:31Speaker 1: in front. You're here at the beginning of the Internet.
- 16:35Speaker 1: Think about that, the beginning of the Internet. For the
- 16:38Speaker 1: first time in history, though, the major US stock trading
- 16:40Speaker 1: occurs off exchange. And this is where it gets interesting
- 16:44Speaker 1: because why because these buds are out there doing it
- 16:48Speaker 1: in these dark pools where you can't see anything.
- 16:51Speaker 2: That's how they're beating you. They're beating you in the
- 16:53Speaker 2: stock market because of that.
- 16:55Speaker 1: This is going to change, guys, and it's going to
- 16:57Speaker 1: change the finance industry and Wall Street forever.
- 17:00Speaker 2: And you finally are there.
- 17:01Speaker 1: It's much like the Internet, change commerce, change how you
- 17:04Speaker 1: consume content. This is where we are in the future
- 17:08Speaker 1: of crypto. All right, You guys know what to do.
- 17:09Speaker 1: Get in on the diamond circle. It's a great place
- 17:11Speaker 1: to get additional content from me. You can do that
- 17:14Speaker 1: for free. Just click the link down below, follow me
- 17:16Speaker 1: on x at Paul Baron. I'll catch you next time
- 17:20Speaker 1: right here on The Paul Baron Show.