Transcript

Credlin | 6 November · Credlin

0:02
Speaker 1: Queedlin Live, Von Sky Needs Australia.
0:08
Speaker 2: Good evening, welcome to show. Well, I'll tell you what
0:09
Speaker 2: It's been an extraordinary day in US politics. It's the
0:12
Speaker 2: biggest story in the world, certainly the biggest story in Australia.
0:16
Speaker 2: We expect Donald Trump to take the stage almost imminently.
0:19
Speaker 2: We'll bring you that live straight from the US. Is
0:22
Speaker 2: what's coming up on the program tonight. Historic is just
0:26
Speaker 2: one word. We use it a lot, but it certainly
0:28
Speaker 2: is that today. I'll get you all the coverage from
0:31
Speaker 2: the US. We'll talk to experts and we'll get you
0:34
Speaker 2: the final results of things are being declared as we speak.
0:37
Speaker 2: Very clearly, the present elect is now Donald Trump. We're
0:42
Speaker 2: expecting him to speak, as I said. But in our
0:44
Speaker 2: starting replay earlier today from Hillary Clinton's election night no
0:50
Speaker 2: show in twenty sixteen, Kamala Harris fails to front her
0:53
Speaker 2: crowd at the Democratic Victory Party. Now, if you want
0:56
Speaker 2: to be the commander in chief, you've got to have
1:00
Speaker 2: a courage to turn up when things are tough. What
1:03
Speaker 2: a shocker.
1:04
Speaker 3: We will continue over Nate to fight to make sure
1:09
Speaker 3: that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.
1:15
Speaker 3: So you won't hear from the Vice president tonight, but
1:21
Speaker 3: you will hear from her tomorrow.
1:27
Speaker 2: We're going to keep an eye on Trump HQ for
1:30
Speaker 2: when the President elect takes the stage with first what
1:33
Speaker 2: an AWLBUTO, I mean, this is the most consequential US election,
1:37
Speaker 2: and it appears we now have the re election of
1:40
Speaker 2: Donald Trump in the moment. I'll discuss what we know
1:43
Speaker 2: so far with all the experts, as I said, but
1:44
Speaker 2: already some things are clear. On early counting. It seems
1:49
Speaker 2: that the female vote is not nearly as strong as
1:51
Speaker 2: expected for Kamala Harris. Likewise, the black vote not as
1:56
Speaker 2: strong for the Democrat candidate as before, or the vote
1:59
Speaker 2: of the un worker all the Hispanic vote to historically
2:04
Speaker 2: a mainstain in Democrat states. What's more telling, given the
2:08
Speaker 2: heavy focus on the issue from Harris and her celebrity boosters,
2:12
Speaker 2: is that abortion rights do not appear to have produced
2:15
Speaker 2: a backlash against the Republicans in the states that post
2:19
Speaker 2: Row versus Wade have taken steps to restrict it. And
2:24
Speaker 2: what this says to me most though, is that regardless
2:27
Speaker 2: of so called identity issues, Americans voted on the mainstream
2:32
Speaker 2: issues of prosperity and security. The sure there were niche
2:36
Speaker 2: issues that the critical for noisy minority will see that
2:39
Speaker 2: play out in the inner urban vote, as we do
2:41
Speaker 2: here in Australia for people often who feel defined and
2:45
Speaker 2: programmed by their identity. But successful politics will remain where
2:50
Speaker 2: it should be a contest over who and what can
2:53
Speaker 2: make me and my family safer and better off and
2:56
Speaker 2: my country safer and better off. Put aside all the
3:01
Speaker 2: anti Trump invective in hysteria, this is where Trump, in
3:04
Speaker 2: my view, has always had the edge. Yes, he's over
3:08
Speaker 2: the top and his crude. I'm perhaps a little old fashioned.
3:12
Speaker 2: I want our politicians to hold the higher standards in
3:15
Speaker 2: public life, but I pay on results, and on his watch,
3:20
Speaker 2: taxes fell, regulations will repealed, The economy grew, employment expanded,
3:25
Speaker 2: and wages rose. People were better off, and they weren't
3:29
Speaker 2: just taking him at his word that they we'd be
3:32
Speaker 2: better off if they voted for him again under him
3:36
Speaker 2: before they had firsthand experience of it. And everything else
3:40
Speaker 2: pales into insignificance when your candidate is a known quantity,
3:45
Speaker 2: a proven performer on the issues that are driving the vote,
3:49
Speaker 2: and on his watch too. No new wars were started
3:52
Speaker 2: because America's folks feared just what he might do. We
3:56
Speaker 2: often say, don't we Weakness is provocative and right now
4:00
Speaker 2: the West needs strength. Whatever you might have thought of Trump,
4:04
Speaker 2: one look at the alternative and you can see Harris
4:08
Speaker 2: is not a vote for strength. As Trump is about
4:11
Speaker 2: to claim victory, there'll be domestic lessons and domestic consequences
4:16
Speaker 2: with cost of living propelling Trump back into the White House.
4:20
Speaker 2: That's bad news from Australian Prime minister who no longer
4:23
Speaker 2: seems to be the Westy battler he told us he was,
4:27
Speaker 2: or his government too, that, like Harris, has no record
4:31
Speaker 2: to run on and thinks that demonizing their opponent in
4:35
Speaker 2: Peter Dutton is all they need to do to win
4:39
Speaker 2: in Alliance terms, a re elected President Trump will certainly
4:43
Speaker 2: expect more defense effort than a series of announcements and
4:47
Speaker 2: then cancelations from the Albanesia government, and so they should.
4:51
Speaker 2: But more on all of that tomorrow, because tonight this
4:55
Speaker 2: win is not just vital for the United States but
4:58
Speaker 2: the wider world. All right, Let's go now to Tom
5:05
Speaker 2: Connell on standby to give us the latest breakdowns. As
5:10
Speaker 2: he called the result just a little bit earlier, for
5:12
Speaker 2: the Republican candidate President elect Donald Trump.
5:15
Speaker 4: Tom Yeah, thanks, Peter, Well, this really hinged on.
5:21
Speaker 5: Of course, we knew the Blue War.
5:23
Speaker 4: Once that first state cracked, this result was becoming obvious.
5:26
Speaker 5: Let's just take you through the seat of the state.
5:29
Speaker 4: I should say that got on Trump right to the
5:31
Speaker 4: casp of winning Pennsylvania.
5:33
Speaker 5: So you can see here this is still relatively tight.
5:35
Speaker 4: There's going to be quite a few results that will
5:37
Speaker 4: come down to one or two percent. So in many senses,
5:39
Speaker 4: the polls were right, but the margin is two point
5:41
Speaker 4: nine percent. The issue for the Democratic Party is nearly
5:44
Speaker 4: ninety five percent has been counted already.
5:46
Speaker 5: In other words, it's very little vote left.
5:48
Speaker 4: And this is another trend we saw as well, Pete
5:51
Speaker 4: last time around, with all that mail in ballot left.
5:54
Speaker 5: That meant there could be dramatic catch up at the
5:55
Speaker 5: end of the Democrats this time around.
5:57
Speaker 4: Look two point six million last time in twenty twenty.
6:00
Speaker 4: This is in Pennsylvania one point eight million, so few
6:03
Speaker 4: votes to catch if you like. So that was Pennsylvania.
6:07
Speaker 4: The other state that we've just called in the past
6:10
Speaker 4: half hour or so is Wisconsin. You can see here
6:12
Speaker 4: again four point two percent is the margin eighty eight percent,
6:16
Speaker 4: though has counted this time around.
6:17
Speaker 5: What's happening here is Milwaukee.
6:19
Speaker 4: This was the last hope for the Democrats that a
6:21
Speaker 4: big vote in Milwaukee would allow them.
6:23
Speaker 5: To catch up. Well, the way the rate that.
6:25
Speaker 4: That vote is coming in, it's not coming in fast enough.
6:28
Speaker 4: So again, this is going to be a Donald Trump
6:31
Speaker 4: victory in Wisconsin.
6:32
Speaker 5: So where that leaves things?
6:34
Speaker 4: Right now, if we go to let's have a look
6:36
Speaker 4: at our map, so I might just compare twenty twenty.
6:38
Speaker 4: First of all, this was the result for Joe Biden.
6:41
Speaker 4: He kept the blue wall intact. He even flipped Georgia,
6:44
Speaker 4: he won Arizona and Nevada.
6:47
Speaker 5: As we go to where and now this is the
6:48
Speaker 5: live count.
6:49
Speaker 4: You can see the blue wall has crumbled. Michigan looks
6:52
Speaker 4: onminous as well. George's flipped, and we think very likely
6:55
Speaker 4: Arizona and Nevada could flip as well. So the other
7:00
Speaker 4: interesting thing about all of this, Peter, is the popular vote.
7:03
Speaker 4: This is the one that we thought Carlala Harris would win.
7:06
Speaker 4: We'll look at the margin. Now, Donald Trump more than
7:08
Speaker 4: five million votes ahead. Yes, there's vote to come in California,
7:12
Speaker 4: but that will only catch Carl Maharris up about one
7:14
Speaker 4: and a half million. So Donald Trump is set to
7:16
Speaker 4: easily win the popular vote, which hasn't been done for
7:18
Speaker 4: more than two decades.
7:19
Speaker 5: In terms of the Republicans.
7:21
Speaker 4: And when we go to those battleground states as well,
7:23
Speaker 4: let's go to states flipped and you can see what's
7:26
Speaker 4: happened already Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and look at the
7:29
Speaker 4: Electoral College votes that go with it. And that has
7:31
Speaker 4: meant Donald Trump is going to again be the president
7:34
Speaker 4: of the United States.
7:38
Speaker 2: Tom how hid high do you think his tally will
7:40
Speaker 2: go to? Think it will be greater than two to eighty.
7:46
Speaker 5: I think it will, Peter.
7:47
Speaker 4: So let's look at what there is to go first
7:49
Speaker 4: of all, when we're looking at some of those states
7:51
Speaker 4: we haven't called just yet, Arizona, I'm quite confident will
7:54
Speaker 4: be a Donald Trump victory. Why when it's only one
7:56
Speaker 4: percent and fifty one percent can because we know the
8:00
Speaker 4: very early vote counted is Democrat leaning, it's early, and
8:03
Speaker 4: it's mail in ballots.
8:04
Speaker 5: They count them first in Arizona.
8:06
Speaker 4: Every state and has different rules, So as a result,
8:08
Speaker 4: you'd want to be three or four percent up.
8:10
Speaker 5: If you're Carmla Harris, that's not the case.
8:12
Speaker 4: She's actually behind, So I just want to see a
8:14
Speaker 4: little bit more trend to make sure that's the case.
8:16
Speaker 4: We don't have a lot of oversight in terms of
8:18
Speaker 4: some of these order of votes. That is set to
8:20
Speaker 4: be though, another Donald Trump victory in terms of this election.
8:23
Speaker 4: Nevada is the other one that's I think right now,
8:26
Speaker 4: I'd have to say.
8:26
Speaker 5: It's a real toss up.
8:27
Speaker 4: It's a pretty small state and the amount of vote
8:30
Speaker 4: coming and as you can see, Donald Trump's actually increased
8:32
Speaker 4: that margin four point six percent. I'll tell you what
8:34
Speaker 4: on that. With seventy eight percent counted, he'd be a
8:37
Speaker 4: reasonable favorite. Clark County dominates Nevada, so i'd want to
8:41
Speaker 4: see how the last twenty percent there is trending before
8:43
Speaker 4: declaring that. But that's a good sign now, i'd say
8:46
Speaker 4: for Donald Trump. So it'd be a reasonable chance of
8:48
Speaker 4: winning that and the other one as well in terms
8:50
Speaker 4: of that blue wall. So there's one at the moment
8:52
Speaker 4: that hasn't fallen, but it's extremely likely. To see what
8:56
Speaker 4: the latest figures are in Michigan. Okay, so seventy percent
8:58
Speaker 4: countdid at six point five percent. The issues so far
9:00
Speaker 4: as well. I've been looking at Wayne County. It's the
9:02
Speaker 4: biggest one there. Carma Harris way underperforming compared to Joe Biden,
9:06
Speaker 4: so on those numbers, she simply won't make that up.
9:09
Speaker 4: It's highly likely, almost certain Michigan goes that way again.
9:13
Speaker 4: When a look at the early vote two point eight million,
9:15
Speaker 4: it's actually up over all three.
9:16
Speaker 5: Point one million.
9:17
Speaker 4: But the problem is part of me the mail in
9:20
Speaker 4: ballots aren't going to arrive in Michigan the way they
9:22
Speaker 4: did last time. So where that puts us the likelihood
9:26
Speaker 4: in terms of what Donald Trump will actually get to
9:28
Speaker 4: two hundred and eighty As you mentioned right now, I'd
9:30
Speaker 4: be very confident he wins Michigan, which again gets him
9:33
Speaker 4: up to two hundred and ninety five. Highly likely Arizona
9:36
Speaker 4: as well. That takes him to three hundred three hundred
9:38
Speaker 4: and six. Nevada we're calling a toss up, so either
9:41
Speaker 4: three hundred and six or he gets to three hundred
9:43
Speaker 4: and twelve with Nevada.
9:45
Speaker 5: So this is not a narrow win.
9:46
Speaker 4: As I alluded to again before the popular vote, you
9:49
Speaker 4: can see a significant margin for Donald Trump, which hasn't
9:52
Speaker 4: been done for a long time by a Republican.
9:56
Speaker 2: Tom, give me a readout of the Congress too, please.
10:02
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, these two battle. Let's have a look at
10:03
Speaker 4: both of them. First of all, the House, this could
10:06
Speaker 4: take quite a while. We've seen one hundred and eighty
10:08
Speaker 4: nine to one hundred and sixty three. We haven't had
10:10
Speaker 4: the toss ups essentially decided right now. This could take
10:13
Speaker 4: the best part of a month with the nature of
10:16
Speaker 4: the House. So that's right now as we go to
10:19
Speaker 4: where unclear, Republicans have to be favorites in that, given
10:23
Speaker 4: where some of those top toss up races are going,
10:25
Speaker 4: and of course the overall election result.
10:27
Speaker 5: We do know what's going to happen in the.
10:29
Speaker 4: Senate though already we've had the Republicans flip.
10:32
Speaker 2: They're required two.
10:33
Speaker 5: They have control of the Senate.
10:34
Speaker 4: We still have six more races to call in that,
10:37
Speaker 4: but already they have the.
10:38
Speaker 5: Fifty one requisite, so they're going to control.
10:41
Speaker 4: Obviously, they've got the President, the Senate, the House somewhat
10:44
Speaker 4: of a toss up, and they've won the majority vote
10:46
Speaker 4: in terms of the popular vote. So right now it's
10:49
Speaker 4: looking likely to be a clean suite for the Republican Party.
10:54
Speaker 2: All right, Well, leave it there, thank you, Tom Connell. Right,
10:57
Speaker 2: let's go to the US now disguise of Washington correspondent
11:00
Speaker 2: Analie Nielsen who spends a bit of time at the
11:02
Speaker 2: Congress building. Hey, it looks like there might be a
11:05
Speaker 2: Republican Senate. Too early to call the House, but that
11:09
Speaker 2: in itself will be a game changer for the new
11:11
Speaker 2: president elect because he didn't have that sort of support
11:14
Speaker 2: lifetime in the Congress. Didy analyse.
11:22
Speaker 6: Fifty five Republican seats in the Senate. So there's one
11:25
Speaker 6: hundred seats in the Senate. That gives them a clear majority.
11:29
Speaker 6: Right now, it's fifty to fifty. So Kamala Harris's vice
11:32
Speaker 6: president acts as President of the Senate, and in that role,
11:35
Speaker 6: she gets the casting vote if there's a tie in
11:38
Speaker 6: the Senate. What this is going to mean is there's
11:41
Speaker 6: going to be flexibility. If some of the more moderates
11:43
Speaker 6: want to try to block something, Republicans.
11:46
Speaker 2: Will have options.
11:47
Speaker 6: But also what this means is Senate confirmations for all
11:50
Speaker 6: those key cabinet positions administrative positions, sorry, administration positions, I
11:55
Speaker 6: should say, will go through the Senate, and if Republicans
11:58
Speaker 6: have control, it's all going to be much simpler for
12:02
Speaker 6: Donald Trump to get his way.
12:06
Speaker 2: We'll get to the Trump campaign in a moment, but
12:09
Speaker 2: I just couldn't believe in a replay of the twenty
12:11
Speaker 2: sixteen a debarcle from Hillary Clinton, the vice president, the candidate,
12:18
Speaker 2: she was a no show tonight.
12:22
Speaker 6: Look, the sense I really got from the Harris campaign
12:25
Speaker 6: from the start was they just thought there wasn't much
12:28
Speaker 6: they had to do other than not be Donald Trump.
12:31
Speaker 6: And they really thought that that was reflected in the polls,
12:33
Speaker 6: that the only reason Joe Biden was doing poorly was
12:36
Speaker 6: because of his clear cognitive decline. And apart from that,
12:39
Speaker 6: they were sweet. And I think this shows that there
12:43
Speaker 6: is just a deep distrust now from the American public
12:46
Speaker 6: and what they've been told from the media and what
12:49
Speaker 6: they've been told from their government. And it all comes
12:52
Speaker 6: back to everyone pretending like Joe Biden's been fine for
12:55
Speaker 6: years when he hasn't been. And so they didn't do
12:58
Speaker 6: traditional campaigning, they didn't do press she didn't.
13:01
Speaker 2: Do a single press conference.
13:03
Speaker 6: And when you have Axios writing up that she's the
13:06
Speaker 6: no comment candidate because she refused to clarify her policy
13:09
Speaker 6: positions from the last time she campaigned in twenty twenty
13:13
Speaker 6: for the Democratic primaries, we just heard it again and again.
13:17
Speaker 6: Voters didn't feel like they really had a good option
13:20
Speaker 6: this time around.
13:24
Speaker 2: And for all the talk of the pollsters, you know
13:26
Speaker 2: it was going to be a very tight rate, and
13:27
Speaker 2: it certainly was ted in the early counts afternoon something
13:31
Speaker 2: in our time, of course, three hundred and six to
13:34
Speaker 2: something like three hundred and twelve. That's where Tom Connell
13:36
Speaker 2: thinks the range will land. I have to say, yet again,
13:40
Speaker 2: it looks like the betting markets got it closer than
13:43
Speaker 2: the polsters. And that wipeout of Iowa that was predicted
13:48
Speaker 2: by the Democrat polster, well it was a walkover for
13:51
Speaker 2: the Republicans.
13:54
Speaker 6: And the timing of that Iowa poll is to have
13:56
Speaker 6: it released for Sunday morning for all the Sunday morning
13:59
Speaker 6: politics shows, so that they talked about it all of
14:01
Speaker 6: Sunday was dubious and as mcmulvaaney said earlier today, having
14:05
Speaker 6: a nine percent undecided factor in that poll and calling
14:09
Speaker 6: it as a win for Kamela when what we've seen
14:12
Speaker 6: play out now is all of those undecided voters when
14:16
Speaker 6: they got in the polling booth, they pinched their nose
14:19
Speaker 6: and voted for Donald Trump because they didn't like their
14:21
Speaker 6: options and they.
14:23
Speaker 2: Picked the better of the two.
14:25
Speaker 6: And I think there's going to be a lot of
14:26
Speaker 6: people who couldn't fathom why anyone would think Donald Trump
14:30
Speaker 6: is the better of the two. But it all comes
14:32
Speaker 6: back to the basics. Cost of living is hurting people here,
14:36
Speaker 6: and you cannot tell people the economy is better because
14:39
Speaker 6: they've created so many jobs. When people have to work
14:41
Speaker 6: three jobs to pay the same bills they were paying
14:44
Speaker 6: four years ago, spot on.
14:47
Speaker 2: And when they want to demonize the bloke who says
14:49
Speaker 2: he can make it easier for them, they have the
14:51
Speaker 2: lived experience. He's a known quantity and that counts for
14:54
Speaker 2: a lot when you're putting him up to be re elected.
14:57
Speaker 2: I'll leave it their analyse. I need to get down
14:59
Speaker 2: to the Trump headquarters. Pete Stefanovic's on standby there. It
15:03
Speaker 2: looks like the crowd is being ready. The stage certainly
15:07
Speaker 2: is for the arrival of the president elect. What can
15:10
Speaker 2: you tell us, Pete? The mood must be electric.
15:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, very festive, Peter. So, about an hour ago, this
15:19
Speaker 3: flawed area.
15:20
Speaker 5: Behind me was half full.
15:23
Speaker 3: And once they announced Pennsylvania, when I say they fox news,
15:27
Speaker 3: because that's on the big screen. Once Pennsylvania was announced
15:31
Speaker 3: in the Republican column, a huge cheer erupted.
15:35
Speaker 5: And the floor filled.
15:37
Speaker 3: And then not too long ago, Trump was declared the
15:41
Speaker 3: winner of this election. And it was electric, Like you said,
15:45
Speaker 3: it was electric. There are thousands of people here, a
15:48
Speaker 3: lot in they're red, they've got their Maga hats on,
15:51
Speaker 3: they've got their beers and their wines. They're having a
15:55
Speaker 3: great time, and you know they've they've enjoyed themselves throughout
15:58
Speaker 3: the course of the evening, and it was seen as ambitious.
16:02
Speaker 3: I know you were just talking about this a few
16:04
Speaker 3: hours ago here at Trump HQ. A lot of the
16:07
Speaker 3: folks were telling me that they felt pretty good about
16:10
Speaker 3: the clean, sweet tonight, not just the presidency but also
16:13
Speaker 3: the House and the Senate. But sure enough, that may
16:17
Speaker 3: well be coming true. And so everybody's feeling pretty good
16:20
Speaker 3: about that. So not long ago. Now we suspect, because
16:25
Speaker 3: there was a few people who emerged from the blue
16:27
Speaker 3: curtains about a minute ago fixing up the teleprompter. We
16:31
Speaker 3: wonder if he's going to do the weave tonight, by
16:33
Speaker 3: the way, or maybe he'll just stick to scripted comments
16:36
Speaker 3: because it is past two o'clock in the morning, and
16:39
Speaker 3: Elon Musk is supposed to be here as well. We
16:41
Speaker 3: wonder if or what he might say, but they tweak
16:44
Speaker 3: the microphones and they tweak the teleprompter, which would suggest
16:48
Speaker 3: that he's not too far away now we hope not.
16:52
Speaker 2: Anyway, I think we've got a good shot of the
16:56
Speaker 2: flags there on the stage. There's no identity issues with
16:59
Speaker 2: the United States. They have one national flag. We're very
17:03
Speaker 2: happy to fly that one national flag. We see obviously
17:08
Speaker 2: there the mention of jd Vance on the podium with
17:12
Speaker 2: the President elect. Of course, now that he has won
17:15
Speaker 2: a second term, this will be his last term, Donald
17:19
Speaker 2: Trump's last term. What are the odds do you think
17:21
Speaker 2: that jd Vance will emerge during the next four year
17:24
Speaker 2: period as the real error apparent to Donald Trump.
17:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's pretty strong, Peter. I mean, I
17:34
Speaker 3: think that was part of the reason why he chose
17:37
Speaker 3: jd Vance. And jd Vance was once a never Trumper, remember,
17:41
Speaker 3: but he changed his dune when he needed Donald Trump's
17:45
Speaker 3: support and they were able to bury the hatchet.
17:47
Speaker 5: And here we are, so we suspect that he is.
17:49
Speaker 3: The heir apparent Donald Trump.
17:51
Speaker 5: Can't do another term.
17:53
Speaker 3: Vance has got many, many years on his side, and
17:56
Speaker 3: there's really a clear absence of anybody else, particularly with
18:01
Speaker 3: the profile, because JD. Evans has a very big profile,
18:05
Speaker 3: not just within the Republican Party. He's had that best
18:08
Speaker 3: selling memoir, there's the film that's been made about him
18:11
Speaker 3: and his family as well.
18:12
Speaker 5: And more the more.
18:14
Speaker 3: People, I think in the Republican side of the thing, the
18:16
Speaker 3: more the more people hear and see of him.
18:19
Speaker 5: I think, the more they like him. So he's got
18:23
Speaker 5: a long way to go.
18:24
Speaker 3: He's got a long political career ahead of him, and yeah,
18:27
Speaker 3: he may well be the one to carry on the
18:29
Speaker 3: MAGA movement. There had been some suggestion that if Donald
18:33
Speaker 3: Trump lost Tonither that could spell the ends of the
18:37
Speaker 3: MAGA movement. Well, the people have voted very clearly that
18:41
Speaker 3: they don't want it to end just yet.
18:44
Speaker 2: I just made the point with the analyst, how comprehensive
18:47
Speaker 2: this result is. It it lands over the three hundred
18:50
Speaker 2: Electoral College votes. It's a much stronger result than was predicted.
18:54
Speaker 2: Do you think that's going to mean in civil terms?
18:58
Speaker 2: The American elector it will accept this result, that will
19:02
Speaker 2: not see outbreaks of predicted writing and things like that
19:06
Speaker 2: that was talked about if it had been on a
19:09
Speaker 2: knife edge tonight.
19:13
Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to eventuate now. I mean,
19:16
Speaker 3: it might well do, but I just don't get that
19:18
Speaker 3: sense not here anyway. I mean, I can only judge
19:21
Speaker 3: what's going on here, but even steering around the country
19:26
Speaker 3: Peter over the past couple of weeks, and even covering
19:30
Speaker 3: this story for the past couple of years, I wasn't
19:32
Speaker 3: quite sure that was going to happen anyway, and I
19:36
Speaker 3: think Trump's victory tonight will put a lot of that
19:39
Speaker 3: to bed. I mean, I know that the Democrats are
19:41
Speaker 3: probably going to have to go and do some soul
19:42
Speaker 3: searching and figure out what went wrong. But I think
19:46
Speaker 3: it's quite clear how this election was won. And as
19:50
Speaker 3: I mentioned to Chris a short time ago, it was
19:53
Speaker 3: based on one question, are you better off now than
19:57
Speaker 3: when you were four years ago? And I think use
20:00
Speaker 3: that to great effect in israelis more and more in
20:03
Speaker 3: recent weeks, because.
20:04
Speaker 7: I think there's not many people who can answer in
20:07
Speaker 7: the affirmative and that's a question that brought Stephen Miles
20:11
Speaker 7: undone and the Queensland election recently, and it's likely to
20:15
Speaker 7: be a question that Peter Dutton is going to use
20:17
Speaker 7: in the next federal election as well, because most people.
20:22
Speaker 3: And I've spoken to a lot here in America in
20:24
Speaker 3: recent days, have said, look, I've just got less.
20:27
Speaker 5: Money in my pocket now.
20:28
Speaker 3: I can't afford the fuel, I can't afford the bills.
20:31
Speaker 3: I can't afford childcare, not like I used to, which
20:36
Speaker 3: for them makes voting very simple.
20:41
Speaker 2: Peter, I'm going to leave you. He hasn't arrived.
20:43
Speaker 3: Gen.
20:43
Speaker 2: I want to check in if I can with Paul
20:45
Speaker 2: Murray and DC, but I will come back as soon
20:47
Speaker 2: as we see some more movement on the stage. Paul Murray,
20:50
Speaker 2: I'll bring you in now if I can. From Washington, DC.
20:53
Speaker 2: I just want to pick up some comments I made
20:55
Speaker 2: at the top of the show about all these predicted
20:58
Speaker 2: swings to Ama. Harrison never eventuated, so the female vote
21:02
Speaker 2: didn't turn out for her as strongly as it has
21:05
Speaker 2: been predicted. We certainly didn't see the same number of
21:09
Speaker 2: black vote turnout as we have had in the past,
21:12
Speaker 2: not just with Obama, which you might well expect, but
21:15
Speaker 2: also with Joe Biden. The Union numbers which were Joe
21:19
Speaker 2: Biden stallwart in Pennsylvania, they were not there in the
21:23
Speaker 2: key districts that I was watching closely this afternoon, and
21:26
Speaker 2: then you've got basically what I can see is divide.
21:30
Speaker 2: Wasn't gender, wasn't race. It was actually the haves and
21:35
Speaker 2: the have nots. And that's the defining issue, of course
21:38
Speaker 2: a play here in Australia. It will be the feature
21:40
Speaker 2: of our election campaign and policies that Donald Trump had,
21:44
Speaker 2: like no tax on overtime, no tax on tips, really
21:48
Speaker 2: going hard on immigration, which is not just a Fortress
21:53
Speaker 2: America sort of position. If you're a Hispanic voter in
21:57
Speaker 2: those southern states, you get the worst job usually on arrival.
22:01
Speaker 2: You're happy to work for the lower paid because you
22:04
Speaker 2: just want to work. New migrants tend to displace you
22:08
Speaker 2: from the jobs market. So a lot of their vote
22:10
Speaker 2: that shifted from the Democrats to the Republicans was also
22:15
Speaker 2: economically based. And I think this is what the pundits
22:18
Speaker 2: on the Democrats side, the strategists did not get. They
22:21
Speaker 2: thought it could just be don't vote for Donald Trump
22:25
Speaker 2: and that alone would get them over the line. But
22:29
Speaker 2: people voted, as Americans would say, with their pocketbook, didn't
22:32
Speaker 2: they pall.
22:37
Speaker 1: Ends up losing an argument well, the Democrats have done
22:40
Speaker 1: it multiple times, and they screamed it from the rooftops.
22:43
Speaker 1: They assumed that the Donald Trump who had been rejected
22:46
Speaker 1: four years ago was the same politician with the same
22:49
Speaker 1: offering when he was coming back. He of course announced
22:52
Speaker 1: his candidacy two years ago. He went through the legal
22:57
Speaker 1: grind And you're one hundred percent right. And I've been
22:59
Speaker 1: talking about this as well all afternoon, that there's a
23:02
Speaker 1: way of viewing the world where it's sex and race
23:06
Speaker 1: and gender, and then there's another way, which is about
23:09
Speaker 1: life circumstances. And you know, you've practiced and championed decisiveness
23:15
Speaker 1: in politics, and I've seen you on election coverages and
23:18
Speaker 1: on election nights when the teams that win or lose,
23:22
Speaker 1: you can often reflect upon the decisiveness. And Trump is,
23:26
Speaker 1: if nothing else, decisive. He has a plan to deal
23:30
Speaker 1: with illegal immigration, he has a plan to deal with
23:33
Speaker 1: the economy, and he has the proven track record of
23:37
Speaker 1: being the bloke who will crash through. And this is
23:41
Speaker 1: yet another reminder to politics on the right in Western countries,
23:45
Speaker 1: be decisive, hold the line and ignore what the establishment says.
23:53
Speaker 2: I think Paul too. I mean the overkill from the
23:56
Speaker 2: Democrats and they do this every single time, and parties
24:00
Speaker 2: at risk of doing it here in Australia is the
24:03
Speaker 2: heavy play on the celebrity endorsement. When you're battling to
24:07
Speaker 2: put food on the table, when you're worried about your job,
24:10
Speaker 2: when you can't pay your rent or your mortgage, the
24:12
Speaker 2: last thing you need is someone like Oprah Winfrey or
24:15
Speaker 2: Beyonce telling you what to think, telling you what to vote.
24:20
Speaker 2: I think that's also a problem for the Democrats.
24:24
Speaker 1: No, I agree completely. The live shot right now here
24:27
Speaker 1: is Donald taking to the stage after winning the presidential election.
24:31
Speaker 2: Peter, Great, we'll go there now, Stefanovic, We've got you
24:36
Speaker 2: there for that moment of history. I was also looking
24:38
Speaker 2: the scan of the crowd. We can see there, we've
24:41
Speaker 2: got Avunker Trump and Joe Kushna. We haven't seen them
24:45
Speaker 2: much on the campaign trail, but it's a big cast
24:48
Speaker 2: of supporters and family on the stage. What did you
24:50
Speaker 2: make of the speech?
24:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I'll just soben you up because it's getting
24:59
Speaker 3: pretty lately and it looks like people are heading for
25:01
Speaker 3: the exes pretty quickly. But it's it's a bestive atmosphere,
25:06
Speaker 3: that's for sure. It's a little hard to hear you
25:08
Speaker 3: over the village people at the moment. That's look, they're
25:12
Speaker 3: having a good time, and now they've got Donald Trump
25:15
Speaker 3: for the next four years.
25:20
Speaker 2: I thought some of the lines that he was running
25:22
Speaker 2: there the campaign were rambling in part, I'll give him
25:25
Speaker 2: a break at three am in the morning. And I'm
25:27
Speaker 2: sure he's had a long couple of days leading into
25:30
Speaker 2: the campaign. I know what it's like on election night,
25:32
Speaker 2: even when you win. In part, it's the leaf that's
25:35
Speaker 2: already focused on what's happening the next day. That line
25:39
Speaker 2: promises made, promises kept. It doesn't get more emphatic than
25:43
Speaker 2: that piece definatly.
25:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, and so now we'll be re examining all of
25:52
Speaker 3: his policies, Peter, including his bed to reduced company tax
25:57
Speaker 3: cuts to fifteen percent. I mean, that was quite a
25:59
Speaker 3: staggering difference between him and Kamala Harris. She wanted to
26:04
Speaker 3: increase company tax rates and he wanted to drop them,
26:09
Speaker 3: which was interesting. And he's already made that threat to
26:12
Speaker 3: the Mexican government for them to do more work at
26:15
Speaker 3: the border to stop the flow of illegal migrants coming
26:18
Speaker 3: from Mexico into the United States. Over the coming hours
26:22
Speaker 3: and the coming days. Also here, it will be really
26:25
Speaker 3: interesting to see what European leaders make of Trump's return
26:30
Speaker 3: to the White House, because they've got concerns over to
26:33
Speaker 3: Ben's spending. What's this going to mean for Ukraine, What's
26:37
Speaker 3: this going to mean for Russia, What's this going to
26:40
Speaker 3: mean for China, What's this going to mean for Israel
26:43
Speaker 3: and Gaza, What's this going to mean for NATO? All
26:47
Speaker 3: of these areas had been talked about in the lead
26:52
Speaker 3: up to a potential Trump victory, and there had been some.
26:57
Speaker 5: Concerns from Europe hope that and what this might mean.
27:00
Speaker 3: So now they'll have to answer those questions and Trump
27:03
Speaker 3: may well have to assuage concerns about that. But yeah,
27:08
Speaker 3: I mean, it's gonna be about reducing inflation and getting
27:13
Speaker 3: the economy going again, and also cracking down on the
27:17
Speaker 3: illegal crossings. As I was talking to you last height
27:20
Speaker 3: about it's still up with the one hundred thousand encounters
27:24
Speaker 3: every month, which is absolutely staggering, and he does have
27:27
Speaker 3: a big job ahead of him. But like you said,
27:30
Speaker 3: there the pointed remarks he had tonight, he says he's
27:34
Speaker 3: committed to cracking down on that and getting on with
27:36
Speaker 3: the job.
27:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting. If he can stem the illegal arrivals
27:43
Speaker 2: into the United States, that puts pressure on Europe and
27:46
Speaker 2: the United Kingdom. Of course, if he does bring the
27:48
Speaker 2: tax rate down, the corporate tax rate down to fifteen percent,
27:51
Speaker 2: that puts a lot of pressure on Australia to drop
27:54
Speaker 2: our corporate tax rate to be competitive. We know what
27:57
Speaker 2: he wants to do on energy. That's a game change.
28:00
Speaker 2: He'll push back pretty hard on climate as he did before.
28:04
Speaker 2: So beyond just the foreign policy landscape, the defense landscape,
28:09
Speaker 2: I think in a lot of economic terms, there'll be
28:12
Speaker 2: some very interesting waves that come across the Pacific, our wave.
28:17
Speaker 2: I just want to mention something too, in relation to
28:20
Speaker 2: the Democrats. I mean, there'll be some blood letting there,
28:22
Speaker 2: that's for certain. Could Biden have won I doubt he could.
28:27
Speaker 2: Harris clearly did not. We go back to the Obamas,
28:31
Speaker 2: who took plenty of time to endorse Kamala Harris. They
28:36
Speaker 2: wanted an open convention, they didn't win out Will they
28:39
Speaker 2: now hold the whip hand inside the Democrats? Just a
28:42
Speaker 2: little bit of trivia, I suppose for people at home
28:47
Speaker 2: come January sixth, when the electoral College votes have to
28:51
Speaker 2: be formally endorsed and signed off. Kamala Harris will have
28:55
Speaker 2: to do that as the vice president because she's also
28:58
Speaker 2: the president of the Senate, so that'll hurt her, I suspect.
29:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you made a really good point. You
29:09
Speaker 3: touched on a good area there too, And we spoke
29:11
Speaker 3: about this last night as well, Peter. There had been
29:14
Speaker 3: a lot of people in the last week who I've
29:16
Speaker 3: spoken to about the primary process and the fact that
29:21
Speaker 3: the Democrats didn't have one, that Kamala Harris was basically anointed,
29:26
Speaker 3: and a lot of people thought that that was unfair
29:28
Speaker 3: and that may well have come back to buy them
29:30
Speaker 3: because perhaps perhaps she might have been exposed if they
29:35
Speaker 3: had a proper primary contest, and perhaps some other governors
29:41
Speaker 3: might have been a better pick, might they have been
29:43
Speaker 3: able to do or go further than Kamala Harris did
29:46
Speaker 3: this evening, And I'm looking at states such as Pennsylvania here,
29:50
Speaker 3: Pennsylvania obviously churning red this time. So again, this will
29:55
Speaker 3: all be part of that post mortem that will that
29:59
Speaker 3: the Democrat will obviously go through now in the days,
30:01
Speaker 3: weeks and months ahead.
30:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, And as I made the point at the top
30:06
Speaker 2: of the show too, Pete a loss in their traditional
30:09
Speaker 2: base across women, across the black vote. It would appear
30:12
Speaker 2: tonight across the Hispanic vote. She didn't get any of
30:16
Speaker 2: the ground that they had hoped she would hit, and
30:18
Speaker 2: I think that will be part of their big post mortem.
30:21
Speaker 2: I'll let you go. I'm conscious at the time, and
30:23
Speaker 2: I know you've got to get back at it all tomorrow.
30:25
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us tonight and enjoy as you
30:28
Speaker 2: are now being front and center in a moment of history.
30:31
Speaker 2: Right there is Pete Stefanovic. We'll throw it to Andrew
30:34
Speaker 2: bott in a moment, but tell what don't go anywhere
30:36
Speaker 2: tonight because the analysis of this result is what you
30:40
Speaker 2: want to hear here on Sky News. I'll leave it here.
30:43
Speaker 2: Here's Andrew Bolt see tomorrow.