Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 256 - 4/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 256 - 4/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 256 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:37
Happy Monday, a new week begins as we fly through the month of
0:41
April. Can you believe it?
0:43
Almost halfway through, before you know it, it'll be 4th of
0:45
July, It'll be summer. But we got a long ways to go
0:47
until then and we got got a lot of Major League Baseball to get
0:51
down on between now and then. Also, you know, it's kind of the
0:55
end of the NHL and NBA regular season.
0:57
So pretty soon we'll have some playoff games to get down on as
1:00
well as maybe some playoff series prices.
1:04
I'm waiting for my buddy John Ewing to hit me up with the data
1:07
for some of the series prices. I like to play at least a few
1:09
series. Just gives you something to, you
1:11
know, to root root for. If you're not betting game to
1:14
game, you can look for maybe a good price before a series
1:17
begins. And then, you know, maybe if you
1:18
have a dog and they're up, you can hedge and and play play the
1:21
favorite who's down at some plus money.
1:23
So stay tuned. We should have at least a few
1:26
serious prices for NHL and NBA coming up here shortly.
1:30
But anyway, guys, hope you had a great weekend.
1:33
I went back to visit the fam for a big Passover Seder.
1:36
Had a lot of fun there. But you know, I didn't enjoy, I
1:38
didn't enjoy our guy Woodson blowing it in the UFC because
1:43
Woodson, if you remember, younger, taller, longer reach
1:46
bet split line move. We got him around -175 I believe
1:50
he closed when I was watching the prelims.
1:52
I didn't pay for the the pay-per-view, but the prelims
1:55
run ESPN Plus and right before the when the when buffers
1:58
bringing everyone in, biting in this corner.
2:01
He was -220 so I'm like, OK, let's go.
2:04
Got some CLV entering the third and final round.
2:07
He was, I believe -285 on the live line.
2:10
Then what happens in the third round?
2:13
He gets hit, he gets knocked down, and then his opponent, EJ
2:17
starts wailing on him. But he was wailing on him.
2:20
And then the ref stepped in and ended the fight and it was Joe
2:23
Rogan. He was doing the call.
2:25
By the way, Joe Rogan's got a pretty good life.
2:27
You do UFC, you have a very incredibly popular podcast.
2:31
Rogan's living the Dream, I guess.
2:32
But anyway, Rogan called it the worst ending or referee, you
2:37
know, breaking it up and ending it that he's ever seen.
2:40
Because Woodson was, you know, coming up about to stand back
2:43
up. They called the fight off.
2:44
So I don't know what's worse, the ref ending that and screwing
2:47
us there with Woodson or, you know, obviously, you know, being
2:51
-285 in the live line and then losing to a guy who's much
2:54
shorter and older than you. Although I would say Woodson,
2:58
even though at the height advantage he was like a like a
2:59
Gumby guy. He was basically a stick figure.
3:01
I don't know if I've only seen someone with such thin calves.
3:05
And Rogan kept saying, yeah, keep lighting up his calves and
3:07
you get really didn't do that. So we're looking good on that
3:10
one. Of course, bad, bad news there
3:12
in the 3rd and final round. But either way, guys, as we
3:15
enter a new week here in the sports betting arena, we're
3:17
going to right going to get right back to Major League
3:19
Baseball. I have a three pack of sweats
3:22
for you, including two favorites and one dog.
3:25
We got both both favorites here, pretty relatively short numbers
3:29
here and then also with the dog, I can hopefully still get them
3:31
around even money. So let's see of course, as
3:34
always, we can go 2 and one and eek out a winning day.
3:37
Now, before we dive into our sweats for today, I just wanted
3:40
to kind of hit on a little bit of MLB betting system updates
3:45
here, because as you guys know, we talked betting systems, you
3:48
know, for all sports, you know, throughout the entire season.
3:51
But baseball to me, and I was joining where I joined stormy
3:55
and and Matt Brown on V cent earlier today on money moves.
3:58
And I kind of mentioned how baseball like it's one of my
4:00
favorite betting system sports just because there's so many
4:03
games. You know, it's such a huge
4:04
sample size. And really, if you can, you
4:07
know, kind of layer in the historically profitable betting
4:10
results in terms of a system match where it doesn't matter
4:13
what the teams are, as long as they fit the criteria.
4:15
That's a match along with the current day data of, you know,
4:19
how's the line moving today for tonight's game.
4:21
Now I really that's when I get confidence in in making a play.
4:24
So I wanted to let you know a few things because we hit on
4:27
this a lot, as I mentioned, but I think this is going to bring
4:29
it into focus a little bit. Remember, betting systems don't
4:32
guarantee moving forward that everything you know will will
4:35
just have a beautiful, you know, a beautiful, you know, chart
4:39
that's just, you know, climbing like stairs and, you know,
4:41
consistently winning. So there's always room for
4:44
regression. But as right now, let me give
4:46
you a couple couple things that I've noticed in the Major League
4:49
Baseball season. So first thing, we had a very
4:53
chalky NFL season. We had a very chalky March
4:55
Madness. Not great for the dog betters
4:57
out there like myself, but or not, but I should say same thing
5:02
we've seen with Major League Baseball through about two weeks
5:05
of the MLB season, we've played about about 15 games, depending
5:08
on what what what team you're looking at.
5:10
Some teams have played like 16 games.
5:12
But anyway, so far, let's start with favorites and dogs.
5:15
Favorites have done very well, 141 and 9360%, you're up two
5:20
units, 1% ROI. You're not rich playing
5:22
favorites. Let's flip it the other way.
5:24
If you're playing all dogs, you're only winning 40%, you're
5:28
down 28 units because you're paying the juice, obviously.
5:33
So if you are risking 1 unit per dog, you are down $2800.
5:38
So it's not that favorites are are like, you know, setting the
5:41
world on fire, but the fact that favorites are just straight up
5:44
profitable and dogs are in a massive hole tells us we're in,
5:48
you know, for a chalky start to the season.
5:50
Let's take it a step further. How about if you're a favorite
5:53
at home versus on the Road home favorites this year, Very, very
5:56
good. One O 3 and 5366 percent, 16%
6:00
ROI, 10% or sorry, 16 units, 110% ROI.
6:05
So you go start with favorites, you layer it on and look at home
6:08
favorites, which have been great.
6:10
Rd. favorites, not so much. 36 and 4047% -, 15 units.
6:15
So we got favorites, we got home favorites.
6:17
Here's another one that I dug up.
6:19
If you're a favorite who made the playoffs last year, kind of
6:22
speaks to the fact that you're probably a good organization.
6:25
You know, you have the experience you made to the
6:27
postseason last year. You're probably a pretty good
6:28
team. Favorites who made the playoffs
6:30
the previous year this season are 74 and 4264%, five units,
6:36
one 4% ROI. How about favorites coming off a
6:39
loss or coming off a win? Do we see a distinction there?
6:42
Yes, we do. Favorites off a loss or quote UN
6:45
quote, bounce back system 60 and 33 this year, 65%, nine percent
6:52
ROI. Favorites off a win, not as
6:55
great, 71 and 53 winning record 57%.
6:59
But -7 units. You're not overcoming the juice
7:01
there. Favorites, let's talk about
7:04
favorites in which the line moves in their favor.
7:05
So you go from -120 to -130 versus favorites.
7:09
Where the line gets, you know, starts to drop you open -120 now
7:12
you're down to -115 -, 110 If you see a favorite with a line
7:16
move in their direction, 96 and 5962 percent, 3% ROI favorite
7:22
without the line move. 39 and 31 winning record 56% but -3 units
7:27
because of the juice. Lastly, interleague versus non
7:31
interleague, interleague favorites 49 and and 2665%
7:36
eleven percent ROI. You look at non interleague
7:39
favorites. So you're in the same same
7:42
league 92 and 6758% but -6 units because of the juice.
7:47
So I bring this up just to give you an update.
7:50
I like to kind of just keep people posted with these systems
7:53
and how they're performing. But I do have a lot of people
7:56
asking me like, you know, man, why aren't you playing more dogs
7:59
than MLB? And again, dogs will win.
8:01
It's like, hey, why didn't I play them?
8:03
But this is really why I try to grind out favorites because
8:06
favorites are winning 60% to start the year.
8:10
Home favorites are 66%. Favorites who made the
8:13
postseason the previous year, 64%.
8:15
Favorites awful loss are 65%. Favorites with a line move in
8:18
their favor are 62%. Interleague favorites are 65%.
8:23
So that's what's obviously cashing.
8:26
And we have at least two of the three games today that are
8:29
checking off a lot of these betting system matches.
8:31
So just an update and a little method to the madness here.
8:35
Leaning towards some chalk favorites.
8:37
So that being said, now we set the table, gave you an update on
8:40
systems and MLB. Let's talk some games for today.
8:43
Ironically enough, this is going to be a dog.
8:45
I gave you all those favorites. They're winning two out of
8:47
three, two out of three games. Well, hopefully this is the one
8:49
out of three games where a dog barks San Francisco G men and
8:53
the Philadelphia Phillies. This is a 6:45 PM Eastern Time
8:57
first pitch. So let's set the stage talk line
8:59
movement. I'll give you my play for this
9:01
one. The giants come in 11 and four
9:03
just took two out of three against the Yankees.
9:05
They won Sunday's interleague series finale 5 to 4 as a plus
9:09
one O 5 Rd. dog. Meanwhile, the Phil's 9:00 and
9:12
6:00 but did just lose 2 out of three against the Cardinals.
9:15
They got blanked 7 nothing yesterday as a -. 170 Rd.
9:18
favorite. So we'll be seeing across the
9:21
board here. Well, first talk about the
9:23
pitching matchup. We have the Giants going with
9:25
the ready Landon Roop. He's O and one 3.6 O ERA.
9:29
The Phills are going to go with the ready Taiwan Walker one and
9:31
O ERA of 0 hasn't given up an earn run this year.
9:35
Now where did this line open? It open with Philly, as I said,
9:38
as high as a -, 135 home favorite San Fran A + 115 Rd.
9:43
dog. Now the public is laying with
9:46
Philly across the market. Phills are getting upwards of
9:48
2/3 of spread money line bets at DraftKings.
9:52
However, even though the Phills are getting a big majority of
9:54
bets, the line isn't up to -140 -, 150 Philadelphia.
9:58
It is absolutely plummeting the other way.
10:01
Even though 2/3 are on Philly, Philly's gone from -135 all the
10:06
way now down to -115 So a big, big move here away from Philly
10:11
towards San Fran. Some shops down as low as Philly
10:14
-110 Why is this important? Because if the public's playing
10:18
Philly and they love them -135 -, 130 you know, why are the
10:22
books dropping the Philly price To make it easier and better and
10:25
more appealing for the public to play Philly when they already
10:28
liked him at -130 again, the old, the old better in me when I
10:32
was new to betting, didn't understand how how lines move
10:35
and what it means. I would, I would have doubled up
10:37
on Philly. Let's double down.
10:38
I love the -130 I love them now even more -110 -. 115 But if
10:44
you've been betting long enough, you realize, hey, if it looks
10:46
too good to be true, usually it is and there's a reason for it.
10:49
So the Philly line is is dropping, becoming a you know, a
10:52
cheaper price. Why?
10:54
Because a lot of respective money is loading up on san Fran
10:56
here, who went from plus 115 now down to around even money.
11:00
I got them at plus 100. I still think you can get around
11:04
-1 O2 at FanDuel, but a lot of books are now minus one O 5.
11:08
So we're basically becoming closer to a pick em game.
11:11
Now Giants are only getting a third of bets, but a little more
11:14
than half the money at DraftKings.
11:15
So good split. San Fran has the more explosive
11:18
offense. I know Philly's got a great
11:19
lineup, but San Fran? Eighteen home runs, 75 runs
11:23
scored. Philly, Fourteen home runs,
11:24
sixty runs scored. Also, did you know Giants have
11:28
one of the best bullpens in baseball?
11:30
1.82 ERA versus 4.27 for Philly. San Fran.
11:35
Some correlative betting value total in this game of nine.
11:38
So more expected run scored, more variants, more upset
11:41
opportunities, benefits the team getting plus money.
11:44
Now I did see some respected money hit the over here.
11:47
The 8 1/2 are pretty much gone. It's mostly nine across the
11:49
board, but it will be a nice night in Philly.
11:51
Mid 60s, five to 10 mile per hour winds blowing out to dead
11:54
center. And the G men, by the way, are
11:56
10 and five to the over this year.
11:59
They are the third best over team in baseball, but we have a
12:02
line move in favor of San Fran, even though they're only getting
12:05
a third of bets looks fishy in favor of the the the giants
12:10
here. So I'm going to take the plus
12:11
money again. I got San Fran plus 100.
12:14
I can always follow the best bets on the juice reel app.
12:17
And I also like the fact that at our our juice reel, as we just
12:20
mentioned, there's a 10% sharp mush edge on San Fran. 10% more
12:26
of the sharper winning betters in the app are on the G men
12:29
versus the losing betters who are leaning more toward Philly.
12:32
So add it all up Publix Philly, but lines dropping a San Fran.
12:36
Let's see if we can get a dog to bark.
12:37
I'm on the G men at plus 100. Next one for you 7 O 5:00 PM
12:42
Eastern Time first pitch the Royals and the Yankees.
12:46
Let's go to the Bronx here Royals come in eight and eight.
12:49
Just lost two or three against the Guardians avoided the sweep,
12:52
though they won Sunday series finale 4 to 2 cashing as a - 140
12:57
Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, the Yankees 8:00 and
12:59
7:00 just lost, as we mentioned, 22 out of three at home against
13:02
the Giants. Lost yesterday 5 to 4 as a -,
13:05
115 home favorite. So pitching match up tonight.
13:09
Seth Lugo. I think it was a good good,
13:12
really good pick up a couple years ago.
13:13
Free agency for KC. He's off to a good start this
13:17
year. One and one 3.24 ERA.
13:20
He'll be opposed by the Yankees. Ready.
13:21
Carlos Carrasco, the ageless wonder.
13:24
One in one ERA, 7.77 not great. So what have you seen across the
13:28
market here? Well, this game open Yankees
13:31
listed as low as a -, 120 -, 120 home favorite and we've seen
13:36
smart money hammer hammer New York, NY -120 -, 125 now all the
13:42
way up to -140 some shops even closer like -145 S big steam in
13:48
favor of the Bronx Bombers. Now the Yankees at DraftKings
13:53
are getting 79% of money line bets, nearly 90% of money line
13:57
dollars. So looks to me like a both a pro
13:59
and Joe Bet split Public just says, hey, play the Yankees
14:02
because they're the pinstripes. Whereas wise guys really like
14:04
the, you know, the opening number they're closer to -120
14:07
both public and sharp support in favor of New York.
14:11
Now we let off the pod talking all those systems.
14:14
We got a lot matching here lighting up on the Yankees.
14:16
Let's rattle them off. Home favorites, one O 3 and 5366
14:21
percent, 10% ROI. Home favorites off a loss, The
14:24
bounce back system 38 and 1769 percent, 18% ROI.
14:30
Non division favorites with steam $0.10 or more 39 and 2363
14:34
percent, 5% ROI. And then if we isolate just
14:38
Mondays, Monday, home favorites with steam $0.10 or more, five
14:42
and two this year, 41 and 1771%. Nearly a 10% ROI since the start
14:48
of last year. So it's all lighting up on New
14:50
York now. The Yankees hopefully their bats
14:52
come to play because they're hitting 259 this year, 28
14:55
homers, 95 runs scored. Royals are only only hitting
14:59
282198 homers, 52 runs scored. Then we dig a little bit deeper
15:05
specific to this matchup. Couple righties on the bump home
15:08
Rd. splits. Yankees are hitting 264 at home
15:10
this year, 11th best in baseball, and they're hitting
15:13
250 against righties, 9th in baseball.
15:16
Meanwhile, KC is hitting two O 9 on the road, that ranks 21st,
15:19
and they're hitting 213 against righties that ranks 26th.
15:24
Did lean a little bit over here as well.
15:25
I didn't play it. I missed the 8 1/2, but it is up
15:27
to 9 and we have 68% bets, 86% dollars on the over at
15:32
DraftKings at circa 86% bets, 95% dollars on the over.
15:37
Wind is blowing out a little bit to left field.
15:40
And we do have the Yankees 10 four and one to the over this
15:42
year, 71%, second best over team in baseball.
15:46
So we got big steam on New York. We're lighting up here with
15:49
system matches and oh, by the way, our friends at Juice Real
15:52
have a 6% sharp mush edge in favor of New York.
15:57
So let's go Yankees. Also kind of like it's fishy
16:00
because again, Krasco area of seven plus Lugo's been pretty
16:04
good yet Krasco opens as a favorite, has become more of a
16:07
favorite. This game will be on MLB Network
16:09
if you if you want to sweat it, but I'm going to go Yankees.
16:13
I got New York -140 and that number should still be available
16:17
at Caesar's last night of the night.
16:20
Let's go to Minnesota Mets visiting the Twins, 7:40 PM
16:25
Eastern Time. First pitch.
16:27
Mets are coming in 10 and five, just one, two out of three
16:30
against the A's. Took yesterday's series finale 8
16:33
nothing as a -, 145 Rd. favorite.
16:35
Meanwhile, the Twinkies, they've really struggled to start the
16:38
Year 5 and 11. We're looking at getting swept
16:41
here in their last series at home against the Tigers, but did
16:45
win the finale yesterday 5 to 1 as a -, 115 home favorite.
16:49
So tonight's interleague series opener, we got the Mets going
16:51
with the Rady Clay Holmes. He's one and one. 4.3 OERA,
16:56
he'll be opposed by the Twins. Righty Joe Ryan, one and one.
16:59
2.65 year. All right, So what are you
17:02
seeing across the market here? Well, this game opened
17:04
Minnesota, a very short -110 home favorite.
17:07
New York about a + 100 even money Rd. dog and the public,
17:12
you know what they're saying? They're saying the wrong team is
17:14
favored. Yeah, the Mets.
17:16
The Mets are 10 and five. Why are they a dog against a
17:18
team that's 5 and 11? Publix loading up on the Mets
17:22
because again, they think the wrong team is favored.
17:24
However, even though 72% of money line bets are on the the
17:28
Mets here, the line hasn't fallen toward a pick them.
17:31
It hasn't hopped the fence and gone, you know, flip to the Mets
17:33
as a as a favorite. The lines actually gone further
17:36
toward the Twins. So Twins only getting 28%, yet
17:39
they went from -110 now up to -115 -, 120.
17:44
So that tells me a fade the trendy dog reverse line move.
17:47
Even though public's playing the Mets, the line went to the
17:50
Twins. Also, we have some good system
17:52
matches here. Twins are a home favorite 66
17:55
percent, 10% ROI this year. They're an interleague home
17:58
favorite 69 percent, 16% ROI and they're also an interleague home
18:03
favorite off a win 30 and 1567 percent 13% ROI.
18:08
Twins have that correlative betting value as a favorite low
18:12
total. So total this one is 8.
18:13
It's really just under if your amount of expected run scored
18:17
more likely to come from quote UN quote the better team, not
18:19
based on the record overall, but that particular head to head
18:22
matchup. And then just the fact that it's
18:24
fishy as hell and stinks and makes no sense.
18:27
A hazmat play as my old Michael, my old friend Michael Lombardi
18:30
likes to call it. It's so gross.
18:32
You need to you need a radioactive hazmat suit to play
18:34
it. But a fishy buy low value play
18:37
on an unpopular home favorite with a losing record against the
18:40
sell high popular Rd. dog with a winning record.
18:44
So Publix all over the Mets. Yet this line is steaming toward
18:49
Minnesota. I got Minnesota -118 at FanDuel
18:53
and we did have a 7% sharp mush edge on the Twins at Juice Rail.
18:58
So 3 plays tonight. See, we can go 2 and one, the G
19:01
men, the Yankees and the Twins. That's what I am sweating.
19:05
So that about does it for episode 256 of the All Systems
19:09
Go Sports Betting podcast, powered by Rhythm.
19:12
Of course. This is the part of the pod
19:13
where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
19:17
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
19:19
busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar.
19:21
And so it's some sharp, data-driven breakdowns with me.
19:24
If you do enjoy the pod and you will want to let me know you
19:27
appreciate the hard work that I put in coming up with these
19:30
plays and hosting the pod. Obviously I want them to win,
19:33
all of them to win. But I think we all know by now
19:35
betting is hard and we keep grinding.
19:37
We never get down when we're cold.
19:39
We never get cocky when we're hot.
19:41
But if you enjoy the pod, you want to make my day.
19:43
Could you please give this pod a five star review on Spotify or
19:47
iTunes if you want to leave a nice review or click the follow
19:50
button. That way you'll get alerted as
19:52
soon as it drops each day. Or recommend the pod to a
19:54
friend. That would be much appreciated
19:57
as well. Next, if you enjoy this style of
20:00
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting.
20:03
Not betting games based on what we think or want or hope will
20:06
happen or what our bias or gut instinct is telling us.
20:10
We're betting games based on data.
20:12
Does that mean every day to play, you know, wins and comes
20:14
through? No, but we're playing a long
20:15
game. Always trying to put ourselves
20:17
against the public, with the house, with the sharps, you
20:20
know, finding games that fit that model.
20:21
If this style appeals to you, you know, staring at your live
20:24
odds page, watching how the market moves, finding sharp
20:27
contrarian plays system matches, digging into bet splits.
20:31
If this is now appealed to you and you want to learn more about
20:34
data-driven betting, you know what you should do.
20:36
You should go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to
20:40
Sports Betting. It's a book that I wrote in
20:42
2019, very proud of it, but really lays out the data-driven
20:46
sharp, contrary and blueprint. So if you have someone in your
20:49
life who maybe could use a few tips or you know you just want
20:52
to support the pod, let me know you appreciate the pod.
20:54
Please pick up a copy from Amazon of the Everything Guide
20:58
to Sports Betting. It's got everything I've learned
21:01
in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
21:04
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go
21:06
contrarian, how to set up a bankroll management plan all
21:10
included in the everything guide to sports betting.
21:12
Also, if you really want to make my day, you want to get that
21:15
Gold Star, you know you should really do you should pre-order a
21:18
copy of my new book. That's right, I'm I'm pretty
21:22
close to being a two time author.
21:24
My new book is called the NFL sharp betting playbook.
21:27
You can search the NFL sharp betting playbook on Amazon and
21:31
pre-order a copy. It's 24 bucks and it will be
21:34
delivered to your door when the book comes out on August 12th.
21:38
And for those of you who maybe want to pick up a pre-order copy
21:42
or got the everything guy to sports betting you know you
21:44
should do for you or for a friend, meet me at the sports
21:48
book. I'll sign them for you.
21:49
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale or we'll get some mozzarella
21:52
sticks and sweat some games together.
21:53
How's that sound? Next, if you haven't done it
21:56
yet, what are you waiting for? Go download Rhythm and Juice
21:59
Real, my two favorite sports betting apps on the market
22:02
because they're data based. Rhythm does a great job powering
22:06
this podcast giving us AI backed models and predictions for game
22:09
bets and player props. We do have the brand new Rhythm
22:13
Lab with Josh Applebaum starting tomorrow.
22:16
So it's no more Tuesday college basketball live streams because
22:19
college hoops is over. But I will see you guys every
22:22
Tuesday still at 4 O clock talking all the different
22:25
sports. But as well as Rhythm you got to
22:28
download juice trail. You can follow the all systems
22:30
go best bet picks for $4.99 a week.
22:34
You can just click the link that I tweet each late afternoon,
22:37
early evening at Josh under score insights.
22:39
Or you can go to the it's the I believe it's the buy sell page
22:43
and you can search ASG under score podcast.
22:46
But I kind of always give you guys the joke that, you know, if
22:49
you go out to out to dinner, out to the bar, you know, you get
22:52
good service, you tip your bartender, you tip your server.
22:55
So if you enjoy this pod, maybe it's become a part of your
22:58
betting routine. Whether you're tail fade or
23:00
we're just value the insights. Please think of those $4.99 a
23:05
week plays on Juice Reel as the ASG tip jar.
23:09
If you want to get those in, hopefully you'll get them a
23:11
little bit earlier and hopefully beat some closing lines.
23:14
But Juice Reel is also great for their Robo Jackson best bet
23:17
picks, their sharp mush indicators, as well as getting
23:21
the arbitrage plays and the shop for the best line features.
23:24
Also, NFL draft isn't far off. I think we're going to dabble in
23:27
some NFL draft. I'm still looking at some late
23:30
movement here. I think the last week is where
23:31
you can make some money on the NFL draft.
23:34
But aside from Drew's real and rhythm, you know, give them a
23:36
five star review download in the App Store.
23:38
Also, I want to let you guys know the importance of a live
23:41
odds page. You're betting on sports.
23:43
You have to know all the games that are going to be played that
23:46
day. What are your First off?
23:47
What are your options? What can you get down on?
23:49
Secondly, you got to know what the line opened at.
23:52
You get that open column on your live odds page.
23:54
It'll stay static. It'll just show you what it
23:56
opened at. Then you can quickly look to the
23:58
right all the different current books, see which direction that
24:01
it's moved. Pull up the complete line
24:02
history, Follow market setting books like Pinnacle and and
24:06
Circa, as well as the books that you bet bet at.
24:09
Shop for the best line, get the best price.
24:11
Grab numbers before they fall. You want to play an under 7 1/2
24:15
in baseball? Well, you look at the juice,
24:17
everyone's fallen to 7, you find that book still offering under 7
24:21
1/2 at -115 It can really be the difference between a win, a
24:24
loss, and a push. So if you need a live odds page,
24:28
you should give Odds Logic a shot.
24:30
And in particular, you got to go to thislinkoddslogic.com/josh
24:35
123. That'll give you a 7 day free
24:37
trial of Odds Logic and then 50% off your first month.
24:40
But as always, remember, if you have questions about juice, real
24:43
rhythm, you know, odds, logic, anything, you can always hit me
24:46
up on Twitter at Josh under score insights.
24:48
My DMS are always open. So that about does it for
24:52
episode 256 of the ASG Pod powered by rhythm.
24:56
As always, I'm gonna leave you with a couple things.
24:58
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
25:01
Rhode Island in the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
25:03
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
25:06
Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield or the Nash in
25:10
Nashville, New Hampshire in my neck of the woods.
25:12
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
25:14
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners with low as
25:17
true as possible is found at the South point or swim sharp
25:20
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
25:22
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
25:25
to me and I I didn't play Rory, but if you played Rory, show me
25:29
that winner and the Masters again.
25:32
I was hanging with the with the fam with the old man who is an
25:36
avid golfer and we were watching it and he was rooting for Rory.
25:39
So good for Rory to to finally win it, get that monkey off his
25:42
back. But flash that winner for me.
25:44
Next one's first one's on me. Next one's on you.
25:47
We'll post about the book. Sweat sharp contrarian plays all
25:50
night long. So winning day, losing day, hot
25:54
streak, cold streak up down grinding, treading water.
25:58
Betting is hard. I can't tell you how hard it is.
26:00
You know it's you'll you'll know you'll know for yourself how
26:03
difficult it is to consistently win.
26:05
But I think that's the part of the betting of betting that that
26:07
I love the challenge, knowing that it's not easy, knowing that
26:10
I'll never be perfect, but I'll strive for it.
26:12
We're really just trying to grind out as many winning days
26:14
as possible. I love the challenge and I love
26:16
the daily opportunity to to to stare at the numbers and I know
26:20
winners are out there. We just got to find the right
26:22
ones. But as always, guys, I'll leave
26:24
you with this betting, betting is pretty difficult, but we got
26:27
to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint, overcome the
26:30
juice, avoid bad beats, beat these razor sharp line set by
26:34
the odds makers. If we can find that sweet spot,
26:36
games that fit our model against the public with the house, with
26:39
the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line
26:42
value. If we can do that, then we're
26:44
going to then we're going to be successful sports bettors.
26:47
So have a great Monday, everyone.
26:49
I'll see you tomorrow for another big episode of the ASG
26:53
pod. That'll be episode 257 of the
26:56
All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
26:59
Good luck everyone and enjoy the sweats on the diamond tonight.