Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Bouncing Back | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/24/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Bouncing Back | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/24/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues, I've reached a new pink. Actually, I'm going
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: to burn my browins hat Man, I don't know what
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: is going on with the bruins.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Arch hate. Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: with you after the worst day that I can possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Back with you as I always am.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: The worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: To the slumps, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you with toadstool Sports. It is Friday,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: March twenty fourth, No April twenty fourth. Holy crap them
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: out of it. I'm I was, I'm trying to put
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: my the ticker up. I'm like, oh my god, Yeah,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: I don't sleep obviously, stroke brain.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Here we go. Uh what do I even have to
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: say about this? One? One on one yesterday.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: The over was the easy win with Padres Rockies starting
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: pitching got us off on the right foot there.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: The bullpens didn't dwell either.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: San Diego actually did put up five runs in one
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: of the later innings of the game and won the
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: game somehow, even though they were losing the majority of
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: the game. But I didn't care about the side. Just
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: get me a lot of runs. I mean it wound
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: up being a ten to eight final. That number actually
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: had gone down a little bit. You could have gotten
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: a ten and a half at like minus one fifteen
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: or something, which is probably preferable to the eleven. I
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: didn't really think it was gonna go down like that,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: but whatever. We did have the comment from boring Bets,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: I think commented saying that the wind was blowing in
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: from the right. I wasn't too worried about that because
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: the majority of the hitters are right handed hitters anyway,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: so you're probably gonna be getting more balls towards left
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: field and right anyway.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know, even though I think the.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Right field porch or whatever is shorter in Colorado, but
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: were a distance. I mean, it didn't matter, though we
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: did need some late runs though, like that game was
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: it was sitting right at ten I think going into
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: like the six or seventh inning. But I wasn't too
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: concerned about it, even though the bullpens were probably better
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: than the starting pitchers coming into that game.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: But whatever, I don't want to talk about it for
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: too long anyway.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: The Knicks, they got into a huge hole because Atlanta
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: was hitting tons of threes, which that can just completely
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: throw off everything about your handicap.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: If the team that you go against is just drilling threes.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I'm sick of it happening.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: It's happened in both NBA losses in the playoffs that
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: I've had on the show so far. Like Atlanta was
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: shooting more than fifty percent from three into the second half,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: and then the Knicks still almost won the game, and
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: they probably should have. The Knicks had the lead. They're
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: winning in the final seconds of the game. And if
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: you didn't see it, Mike Brown, I don't know what
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: he's doing.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: He he keeps like refusing to leave his best.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Players in the game.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: So they're up one with I don't know, thirty seconds
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: left or so, so you know Atlanta's going to get
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: the ball. Atlanta has the ball, and you know the
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: Knicks are going to get at least one more possession.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: What does Mike Brown do? Oh yeah, let's just take
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Jalen bruntson. I think he took Anthony Carl Anthony Towns
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: out of the game as well, because what they're not
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: good enough on defense, So let's go with our defensive
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: line up here. Yeah, that worked out well because CJ
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: McCollums still just hit a shot. The dude who was
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: defending I forget who was defending him. He was. It
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: wasn't a horrible job on defense by the Knicks. I
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: mean it was a good shot, but still McCollum did
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: fake him out still, So yeah, Atlanta scored that shot
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: or hit that shot, and then the Knicks still had
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: a chance to win the game. They put Brunson back in.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: Obviously they got brunts in the ball and he tried
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: to drive the baseline, couldn't do it, passed it back
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: out and the Knicks threw the ball away and yeah,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: it went back court and that was it. The game ended,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: time ran out. It was unbelievable for the Knicks to
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: not even get a shot attempt off like that. I mean,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: I don't want the Knicks to win, but dude, it's
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: gonna be a double whamy. You know, it's gonna be
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: a double whammy, Like we lose that play on the
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: Knicks and what I thought was a good spot to
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: play the Knicks, and the Knicks are still gonna win
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: the series.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: You know, that's what's gonna happen. It's just so bad.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I'd prefer the Knicks to lose the series though, just.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Because I want to see them gone and I want
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: to laugh about it.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, Tyson, what's up? Yeah? Fuck New York.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Obviously, let's get into today's games here. I'm gonna have
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: two NBA plays today. I like the NBA, but I
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: have a strong opinion on all three NBA games today,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: and we're gonna play two of them. And yeah, I
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: only have one baseball player. I don't like this baseball board.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean, let's get into it. And I'm
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: skipping an AHL as well. I know I did not
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: have an NHL play last night either. I think Colorado won,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: and they were my strongest opinion yesterday.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Perhaps should have added as a play. I don't know.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I don't love those thick road on our road.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Favorites though, you know, all right, I'm just making sure
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: we get everything up here. All right, let's go baseball.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: It's all evening today, It's Friday, so.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: It's Friday Friday.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Gotta get down on Friday, all right, Detroit at Cincinnati.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: We have new series starting here. Cincinnati is returning home
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: from a road trip. Two series road trip. But you know,
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: generally I do not like teams returning on from road trips.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: I think the sweet spot though, I look for the
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: sweet spot where you have a team returning home from
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: a three game road trip and they have a disadvantage
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: of the pitching matchup, that would be better, and it
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: would be even better if the team against them had
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: a rest a rest advantage.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: That's not the case here, though.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati has the rest advantage, which is the case with
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: a couple of these teams are turning home today. Major
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: League Baseball does that, you know, for obvious reasons, because, oh,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: if this team's gonna be traveling.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think they really think.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: About the return home spot being bad, which it is,
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: but they think about, oh, this team is traveling, this
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: other team might have a little bit less travel, so
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: the other team will have played the previous day. That's
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: the case here. Detroit played yesterday, Cincinnati did not. Cincinnati
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: is returning home from Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Cincinnati did
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: lose a five game win streak in the final game
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay. So sometimes when a team loses a
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: win streak, it will hang them over a little bit.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: So this is a pretty negative spot situationally for Cincinnati here.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else I have to say about that,
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: but when teams are turned on from road trips, if
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: you watch me, you know, I talk about how they
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: have to get back to home life that can become
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: a distract and whatever needs to get done that wasn't
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: getting done while they were gone, the man's jobs around
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: the house. Detroit played yesterday though, so Detroit did just
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: win a series against Milwaukee. Pretty good win for them yesterday.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Now they're going on on the road. It's a much
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: easier travel spot for Detroit though, going from Milwaukee to Cincinnati.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: That's not a bad travel leg there. Really. Detroit did
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: use some relief pitchers yesterday. They used three.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: In fact, Detroit's bullpen has not been great this year either.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: They're twenty fifth.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: And bullpen Whip, which is pretty bad. Their ERA looks
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit better than that. They're at best right
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: now a mediocre bullpen though. I don't really think this
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: is a very trustworthy bullpen right now. Though I might
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: expect them to get a little bit better because they
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: have some of the same guys they hit last year,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: and last year they were not this bad. Cincinnati's had
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They are at eleventh and whip. Their
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: ra looks really good. I think they have the best
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: bullpen era, but that's gonna go up based on the
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: whip there and the fact that they play in a
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly ballpark. How did, dude, how did I forget
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati yesterday and I was listing hitter friendly ballparks. Cincinnati
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: is one of the most hitter friendly, So I forgot
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: about that.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Sorry, a dirty sock.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: As far as the offenses are concerned, Cincinnati's offense has
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: not been good this year. They're a bottom four offense
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: right now. Detroit's is the better offense. They're twelveth right now.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: I think there's no question about that from Bervaldez is
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: pitching for Detroit, though, he is definitely the pitcher who's
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: in the better form and has had the better season
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: so far. Three point three ERA, a one point two whip,
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Pretty good numbers here. Still, the walks are a little
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: bit of an issue with him. He's been very consistent
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: and walking exactly too in all of his last four routings.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: He's going deep into most of these outings. He's really
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: only had one bad start where Minnesota rocked him. Other
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: than that, he's been good, but he faced some pretty
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: weak offenses besides that, so he is gonna have to
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: step it up well actually, no, he's facing Cincinnati.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? He's playing in a hitter friendly park.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: But Cincinnati is not a good offense either. Twenty to
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: nine strike got walk ratio. Again, the walks are really kind.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Of the issue here.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Fewer than one hit a lot per inning. Not too
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: bad here in this ballpark. You got to you want
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: to be a ground ball pitcher in this ballpark, though,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: and he is in fact one of those.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: And he's only allowed one.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Home run this season, which was in Fenway, which is
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: a more home run he conduce the ballpark. But yeah,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: I mean he sets up to pitch, okay in a
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: ballpark like this. His numbers against Cincinnati are fine. They
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: actually have four hitters have seen him before five excuse me,
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: sixty five at bats, twenty one to ten strike out
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, But nine of the walks are Low and Suarez,
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: which looks like he kind of pitches around them.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Low is the only guy that really actually hits him. Well.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: He's a lot of two forty six batting average to
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: them and seven oh one ops. Overall, his numbers are
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: pretty good against Cincinnati. Andrew Abbott is pitching for Cincinnati.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: He's had a decent career so far. This season has
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: not gotten off well for him though, five point eight
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: four ERA, one point seven to four whip and well,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's really as good as what he
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: looked like maybe last year or the year before that.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: He's also not this bad, but his season has not
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: been good. He's walked multiple guys in every outing in April.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: That's not a good sign.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: He's only a He's failed to go five innings in
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: his last two starts too, and he's a lot a
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: lot of runs, so he is not a good form
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: right now. Allonging ten runs in whatever that is seven
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: and two thirds innings over the last two outings. That's
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: pretty bad. Fifteen to eleven strikeout walk ratio not good.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: He's not really a strikeout pitcher. This is in twenty
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: four and two thirds innings. But that walk number is
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: too high. Thirty two hits allowed his way too high.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: So he's got some issues right now, giving up too
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: many walks and being too hittable. None of that is
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: good facing Detroit. They haven't seen a whole lot of
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: them though, so he might have a little bit of
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: an advantage here because I talk about when pitchers are
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. The hitters sometimes struggle to
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: figure them out, so the pitcher might have a little
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: bit of an advantage. They're only a combined one for
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: eight Offen. The only hit is a double from Jamai Jones,
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Jones and Torres. There are only two hitters I've ever
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: faced them before. Three strikeouts, no walks. This is a
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: game that I just have to stay away from.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Mett, ma'am. I don't.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: I just don't see too much of an advantage, you know,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: just in this game generally.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be coming in a Detroit.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: A little bit seventy percent of tickets, seventy two percent
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. And while they do have
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: a disadvantage in the rest department here, you gotta give
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Valdez the upper hand in the starting pitching matchup.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Detroit maybe laying a little bit too much of a
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: price on the road here, and they are public, so
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: I don't love these public road favorites. We'll see if
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: the money shifts around at all here. Minus one twenty
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: nine is the price on Detroit right now. I think
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: if you want Detroit going first five inning makes more
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: sense here but it is possible that Abbott does pitch
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: well here, which almost has you wanting to recommend like
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: a first five under.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Here, but the total is flipped to eight and a
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: half juice.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: To the over, and the money is coming in on
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: the over sixty two ticket seventy nine percent of the.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Cash on the over. I'm gonna stay away, obviously, but.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: I could see this being a first five under, and
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: then you can just avoid Detroit's bullpen.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Again, I think if you want.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Detroit first five, that avoids their bullpen as well and
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: focuses on the starting pitching matchup. But I don't want
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: anything to do with it. Red Sox at Baltimore. Red
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Sox played yesterday. Baltimore did not, so Baltimore does have
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: a rest advantage here, but they're traveling home from Cleveland
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: and Kansas City, so they are returning over from a
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: road trip, and again that's not a good spot because
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: teams get back to home life, they might get distracted.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: Are they gonna overlook a divisional series against one of
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: the big market teams like Boston. I don't know, because
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox have been playing horribly, so maybe Baltimore
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: won't take them that seriously.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: But the Red Sox might be in a bad spot too.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Even though a lot of times I like to play
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: a team that's coming off getting swept. That was a
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: big series against the Yankees, and the games were close yesterday,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: dramatic game. The Red Sox can't fucking hit. The Red
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Sox pitching was fine in the series. The offense is
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: an absolute disaster, and we can look at that right now.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are the second worst offense in baseball
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: right now. It's a total joke, them in the Mets
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: being the last two teams here and the Phillies being
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: down here. Never would have thought that would be the case.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: It's almost impossible. I'm not saying the Red Sox are
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: an offensive jug or not, but I expected them to
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: be like an average to above average offense here.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: This is ridiculous.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: Whatever, Baltimore has been hitting better than the Red Sox.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Their offense hasn't been great. They're at nineteenth, but you
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: gotta give them an offensive edge here. Baltimore has actually
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: had the better bullpen as well, at least in actually
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: in both era and in Whip Baltimore shockingly number two.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox bullpen has been one of the only
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: decent things about the team. They're seventh right now. But
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: the bullpen blew the game yesterday after totally had a
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: really good start yesterday and the Red Sox had the
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: fucking lead, and the only run off of totally was
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: a bullshit pesky poll home run. I told you hit
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: her friendly ballpark from the absolutely atrocious Jazz Chisholm. Absolutely ridiculous. Anyway,
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are both fine here. Red Sox did use
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: some of their bullpen yesterday, though they used four relief pitchers,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: So gotta get Baltimore a bullpen edge here. Just the
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: fact that bullpens are close and Baltimore has a rest
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: advantage here Brian BeO is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: I want no part of that shit. Six point seven
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: to five yr and one point nine to three whip.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: I keep telling you, man, people were saying, Oh, this
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Bayo guy, because he's Dominican and whatever, and he's you know,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: not particularly huge, whatever, Oh he's the next Pedro Martinez. Yeah,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: give me a fucking break, not even close Pedro Martinez.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: I grew up with that shit. I went to some
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: of his games.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: He was a guy that if he was pitching, you
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: like pretty much knew they're gonna win this game. Like,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: if they don't win this game, there's something really really
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: wrong happening the Red Socks. You can't even say that
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: about fucking Crochet at this point.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: What the fuck? You certainly can't say that about BeO.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: In fact, with Bo on the mound, it's pretty much
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: an automatic loss. So the Red Sox have won one
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: game with him on the mound on the road at
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis, he actually pitched okay, but he's got a
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: thirteen to twelve strike out walk ratio horrible, way too
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: many walks and eighteen and two thirds innings on top
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: of twenty four HiT's allowed.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: This is awful.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: He's a ground ball pitcher, which should you know, help
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: bail him out.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: But that's what he's been doing over the last couple
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: of years.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Round balls have been bailing him out and making his
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: overall numbers look better than they even should be.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: He puts way.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Too many guys on base, He blows. He sucks against
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: the Orioles. Though he actually does happen to have okayanne
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: numbers against them, they have a lot of experience against
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: him seventy five at bats, nineteen to nine strike out
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, two fifty three average, seven thirty three ops.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Those numbers are not horrible, not as bad as you
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: would think. They're not great.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: There's no real advantage between him or the Baltimore offense.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Brandon Young is pitching for Baltimore, though.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: He's made one start this season so far, and it
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: was pretty good. But it was against the White Sox,
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: who I mean, the White Socks have been hitting better recently,
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: but they're not really a good offense. He did shut
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: them out for five innings, two hits, two strikeouts, two walks.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Not a good strikeout raid in the game. Other than that,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: decent Brandon Young. I mean, he is not that young.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: He's twenty seven now in his career. He tried to
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: start his care late last year, and he did not
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: do particularly well last year. Twelve starts for Baltimore, six
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: point twenty four ERA, one point five to four WHIP.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate was pretty low, well below one per inning.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: His walk rate was way too high. There's not a
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: ton to like about Young here. Maybe he will do
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: better than last year.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's a reason why they have him in
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: their starting rotation, although one of those reasons might be
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: just because they need another arm in there. I don't
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: think he's quite as bad as that he had some
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: moments last year.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox have actually never faced him before.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: So there is that at least that there's that advantage
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: there that the Red Sox are unfamiliar with them, so
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: they might not hit him well for that reason. And
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: this is a bad Red Sox offense. But Baltimore is
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: a very public side there at minus one fifteen, seventy
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the tickets seventy two percent of the cash,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: so heavily public Baltimore side. You know, the returning over
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: from a road trip. I don't love that. I don't
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: want I don't want either side here, man.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Probably an over is what makes the most sense to me.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: I mean young. Obviously his numbers last year did not
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: look good. I just shit on Bayo enough, so you know,
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: over makes some sense to me. And this one it
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: means the Red Sox somehow need to actually fucking hit though,
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: which seems like an impossible task for this offense. Seventy
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: nine percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: on the over. Maybe it's a situation where the bats
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: actually break out a little bit. But both bullpens are
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: good too, although I did say yesterday, you know that
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: well in the Red Sox bullpen is actually at a
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: disadvantage because they used some of it yesterday. So I
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: actually probably lean to Baltimore on this game as well.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: I see fewer disadvantages for them here, but the over,
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: like I said yesterday, if the starters do bad, that
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: means you tend to get bullpens involved earlier in the game.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Worse bullpen pitchers come into the game and everything gets
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: kind of out of whack, just like it happened yesterday,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: even though we had an over going again an elite
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: San Diego bullpen, and it still happened.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: So you know, all right, Hindian, what's up? Thanks for
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Bobby Lee.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he's coming to Boston or not.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: I've never seen him live. I don't know he's a
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming he's pretty crazy live Cleveland at Toronto. Toronto
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: was also off yesterday. They're returning home from the Pacific Coast,
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: so this is a pretty bad spot. They've actually been
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: on the road for three straight road series Milwaukee, Arizona, Anaheim.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: So this is a pretty negative spot.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Here, very negative, I would say, returning home from a
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: road trip. They lost the last game on the trip,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: losing a three game win streak as well losing the
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: last game to Anaheim. But again, when you're traveling across
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: three time zones like this, even with a day off,
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: it's a bad spot, dude. And the day off might
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: actually exacerbate it a little bit because you get settled
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: in at home a little bit, you have to do
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: stuff at home. So yeah, this is definitely a very
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: negati spot for Toronto here. And Cleveland also had yesterday off,
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: so both teams are on rest here, so there's no
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: real rest advantage here. Cleveland is just traveling to Toronto
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: from Cleveland, so that's a much easier trip staying in
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: the Lakes region here, the Great Lakes starting a road
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: trip usually is a positive to start a road trip,
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: so usually that is a focused spot. So this is
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: a big time situational advantage for Cleveland here, So I
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: like that for Cleveland. Cleveland probably does have the better bullpen,
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: even though the bullpen whip is not that good. They're
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: at thirteenth Toronto's has been pretty bad so far, They're
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: at seventeenth. Neither bullpen has been fully trustworthy, but I
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: do think Cleveland probably has a little bit of an
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: edge there. Offensively, Cleveland is twenty second, Toronto's twentieth.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Here right now are tied in twentieth.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: For ops, I don't know, man, I mean, I think
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Toronto probably does have the better offense, though more talented
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: bats in that lineup. Starting pitching. Gavin Williams pitching for Cleveland.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: He's definitely in the better form out of these two pitchers.
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: Really good numbers on the season, two point one two ERA,
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: one point zero one WHIP.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: I've talked about him though.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is crazy forty strikeouts in twenty nine
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: to two thirds, only allowing thirteen hits, so he's been
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: virtually unhittable. But he's been really wild. He's walked seventeen guys,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: but Cleveland's won his last four outings. He's allowed no
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: more than two hour and runs than any of them,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: one or fewer in three of them, double digit strikeouts
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: in two of them, and his walk rate went down
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: in the last two outings as well, so he is
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: in pretty good form.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Right now.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: I you know, I think I would probably somewhat trust
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: him in this game, but maybe not enough because his
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: numbers against Toronto. Dude, I looked at this and I
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: was like thinking, I might give Cleveland out as a
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: play here. I gotta worry about it a little bit
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: because his numbers against Toronto's bats are actually pretty and
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: thirty four at bats ten to five strikeout walk ratio three,
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: twenty four batting average allowed oneentye sixteen ops. Those numbers
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: are not good. So yeah, I got to dial it
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: back a little bit. He is going up against Max Schurzer,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: who looks like, you know, he might be retiring. Uh,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: seven point one six ERA, one point two to nine
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: whip is not that bad though, so his ERA probably
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: should improve a bit off of what it.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Is right now.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: He had one start where he really got lit up,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: and it was against the Twins, which seems to be
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: the case with multiple people this year. He bounced back
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: with a decent outing at Arizona. Arizona very hitter friendly park.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: He started out his career there, so he is used
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: to pitching there. The one issue is he had one strikeout. Now,
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: shures are I mean, he's a veteran pitcher. He knows
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: how to use his pitches, so he kind of knows
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: how to pitch despite having like a drop in velocity
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: and stuff like that. He's not really much of a
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: strikeout guy anymore though, ten strikeouts and five walks this
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: season at sixteen to third innings, sixteen hits allowed. You know,
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a mediocre pitcher at best at this point.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: Don't know what we're gonna get get out of him
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: this time, but at least for the most part, his
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: last outing was not bad against Cleveland. He also does
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: have good numbers fifty nine at bats, twenty two strikeouts,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: four walks, one fifty three average allowed four to ten ops. Obviously,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: the problem here is that how much weight can you
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: really put into these numbers, right, And a huge part
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: of it is Hoskins being two for thirty offten with
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: fifteen strikeouts. So I don't know how much weight you
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: can really put into any of this because a lot
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: of these numbers were when Surez it was better than
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: he is now. I mean, he's really nearing the end
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: of his career here at forty one. I'm gonna lean
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: to Cleveland in this one. But the money is actually
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: kind of starting to disagree. It's really difficult to figure
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: out what the money is doing here.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: Cleveland dropped for minus one forty five to one fifty
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on them fifty percent of the cash
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: on Toronto. But I don't know how much we can
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: put into that right because both numbers are right near
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: fifty to fifty, so that's not really telling you much
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: at all. I'm gonna slightly lean Cleveland there. They got
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: the situational edge. I think they have a slight bullpen
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: edge based.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: On current form.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: I think you probably got to give them a starting
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: pitching edge here as well. Matchup numbers don't seem very
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: good at the starting pitching though, so I have concerns
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: about it. All right, Colorado at the Mets. Mets are
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: staying at home and Colorado is traveling in from Colorado.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: But I talk about how when teams start road trips
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: a lot of times.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: They will be focused.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: But Colorado just had a divisional series and almost won
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: the series. They were on the version of beating San
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: Diego yesterday and want to losing the game anyway, So
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: maybe not the greatest spot could be a little bit
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: of a hangover spot. But you know they're facing the Mats,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: who are still a big name team here and starting
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: a road trip, so I'm not about to say Colorado
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: is going to be totally unfocused here. Mets have some
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: new momentum though. Man Mets won the last two games
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota. They actually want a series after breaking like
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: a twelve game losing streak. I told you, and when
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: that happens, that can give you some momentum. And they
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: did win again yesterday. The bullpen had to come in.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: Now the Mets, I think you gotta kind of worry
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: about their bullpen a little bit, even though it wasn't.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Bad last year.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: But they added Williams and I think Weaver, who were
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: two huge.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Problems in the Yankees bullpen last year.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know why they would want to add either
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: of them, let alone both of them, but that has
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: been the case.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: So the Mets bullpen, I mean, you have to knock
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: him down a peg for that.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Yesterday it was very weird because the Mets brought in
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Brazubon and they played Williams walkout in music, and he
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: literally walked from the bullpen to the mound. But Brazubon
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: was actually the guy that wanted to bring in. It
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: was a very very strange situation. You can go see
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: it online.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that was.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: And then Williams had to walk all the way back
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: to the bullpen. Then they brought him in after brazen
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: bon It made no sense, dude, It was really really bizarre.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: I don't understand it. Not bizarre to oh, he's not
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: on the Mets. But yeah, the Mets used a lot
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: of relief pitchers yesterday. Well, they used four, which is
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: not great really Colorado though Colorado does not have a
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: trustworthy bullpen in my opinion, they used five relief pitchers yesterday.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: So despite the rockiness of the Mets bullpen pun intended
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: sort of, they're a little bit lower than the Rockies
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: bullpen in the rankings right now, but I think they're
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: probably the better bullpens still, even though I know Devin
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: Williams not good at all, and I think he wasn't.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Even good yesterday. But Rockies, I don't really trust their bullpen.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: Maybe they're a bit better on the road though, and
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: they do have the slightly better numbers this year. Hitting wise,
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: the Rockies have been the better offense, which is hilarious.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: They're not as good on the road.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: But the Mets been the worst offense, but their offense
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: has started to come around.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: It looks like Sodo is back.
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know about some of the other guys that
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: had injured, but having Sodo back, you know, is pretty
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: good for them.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Rockies have been tenth in offense overall.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: But I think the gap between these two offenses is
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: less than what it makes it look like, even though
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: maybe you have to say Colorado is the better offense
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: right now.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: Michael Lorenz in his pitching, Dude, what the fuck?
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: I hate that when it opens it up in a
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: new pain. Fuck you, Firefox, that is a pain. Lorenz
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: in his pitching for the Rockies. Not good numbers here,
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: seven point four to eighty ra a two point one
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: two whip has just got awful. But you know, I mean,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, he's not quite as bad
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: as those numbers make him look. He's not good, but
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: it remains to me seeing what we're gonna get out
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: of him here. He pitched okay in his last outing
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: in Cores against the Dodgers. Five innings, give it three
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: on runs, strikeouts, one walk, Very tough offensive face that's
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: not too bad, and he is at least not quite
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: as bad on the road. So taking him out of course,
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: five point six y three ERA this year, that's horrible still,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: but not as horrible. Going against the Mets here, you
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: know this Mets offense that hasn't been good this year,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: he actually does due okay against them. In sixty eight
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: at bats, Soto has actually only one for ten off him,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: but overall in sixty eight at bats, seventeen to four
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio two twenty one average, six thirty two
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: ops allowed. Maybe this is an okay matchup for him,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: but he is going up against Freddy Peralta, who was
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: the Milwaukee Ace last year.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: His ERA this year four point oh five.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: That's not good really, but one point zero nine whip
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: is good, so his ERA probably should.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Be a little bit better than that. But he's been
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit shaky.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: I would say he hasn't had any bad start, but
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been going deep into most of his starts
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: this year, which is a little bit concerned.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: The number of walks is a little high.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: Multiple walks in every outing in April not really what you.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Want to see.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: We have another emergency broadcast system test over here. I
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: hate when that thing comes on. We have a twenty
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: to ten strikeout walk ratio from Peralta, which is it's
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: still too many walks.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: The strikeout rate is fine in twenty sixty two thirds innings,
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: nineteen hits allowed.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: That's fine. I mean, I'm not ready to say that
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: he's not still a good pitcher. I think he is.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: He's only twenty nine, so you know, I don't think
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: he's falling off a cliff here or anything like that.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: He's just been a little bit worse than we're used
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: to seeing recently going up against Colorado on the road.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: This offense is really not that prolific obviously, and his
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: numbers are kind of.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Weird against them.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: Thirty six at bats, twelve strikeouts, five walks. Again, that's
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: not really a good ratio. A lot of strikeouts though,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: but too many walks to twenty two batting average a
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: lot nine hundred ops. Very strang because he's allowed four
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: home runs to them, two from Tovar.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: He is one of their better hitters.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: But maybe you you might have to dial it back
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: a little bit on that ops there, because the home
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: runs are a little bit Fluky. I'm not ready to
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: say the Peralta is gonna be bad here, but after
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: the Mets had that horrible losing stretch, should they be
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: a minus two to ten favorite here up for.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Minus one to eighty, I don't know.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's because they're playing the Rockies and there
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: at home, and the Mets probably are better than their
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: record would suggest right now. I don't think he lay
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: a price like this though, even though I think Peralta,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: I mean overall, yeah, he's definitely the better pitcher over
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: Lorenz and seventy eight percent of tickets eighty one percent
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: of the.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Cash on the Mets.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: Probably the Mets do still have the slightly better bullpen
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: as well. I wouldn't be able to play the Mets
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: on the side here, man. I actually think maybe a
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: first five under might be in consideration.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Here. The money is hitting the under eighty seven.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: Percent of tickets on the over fifty six percent of
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. Total for the full game
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: is at seven and a half, which is really crazy.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: I don't see how a Lorenzen game could have a
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: total that low. But again I showed you his matchup
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: numbers are actually okay, so he I mean, he's the
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: real worry here, I think. But you know, if if
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: he's able to actually do okay against this Mets lineup,
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: I could see it going under first five. I don't
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: think I want to include the bullpens, though, I don't
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: want to do it anyway. I mean, the line is
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: too low, really, the line basically, that's a line that
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: you should get if it's Peralta against like a much
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: more capable pitcher.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I don't really get it.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: But some of it is probably because the Mets offense
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: has been so bad, but I think they're being underrated.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: Sodo's back now at least, and whatever. All right, Minnesota
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: at Tampa Bay, this is going way too slow. We're
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: in a half hour in and I'm nowhere close to
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: have way through these Tampa Bay they had yesterday off,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: I believe, after they beat Cincinnati, and they're staying at home.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: So that's a.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: Decent advantage for Tampa Bay here. Oh Cincinnati was off, yes,
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: Oh no, wait, they're not playing Cincinnati, they're playing Minnesota.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Minnesota was not off yesterday. Minnesota lost to the Mets.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: You know, maybe Minnesota will bounce back from that, but
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is not a very good team, so I don't
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: know they overperformed for a little bit, but yeah, maybe
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: not the greatest spot. Minnesota does not have a good bullpen.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: The only is two relief pitchers. Yesterday though Tampa was off,
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: so their bullpen is rested. But Tampa's bullpen has been
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: a problem as well. They're at twentieth in whip and
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: their ERA is well over five, which.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Is really bad.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's ERA is a little bit below five, but their
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: whip is horrible above one and a half. They're twenty
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: seventh there. So both these bullpens are very untrustworthy right now.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: The hitting Tampa Bay fifteenth, Minnesota fourteenth. I don't know
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: what to think, man.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: I think their offense is kind of overperformed a little bit.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: I think these are mediocre offenses year, but that is
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: kind of where they're at now, so it's probably close
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: to accurate. Taj Bradley pitching for Minnesota. Interesting case here
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: one point six y three era. That's probably not sustainable,
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: but one point, I mean one point two to three
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: whip is indicative that the ERA should be higher, but that's.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Not that bad. Overall.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: Thirty four to ten strikeout walk ratio is quite good
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: in twenty seven to two thirds innings, a nice high
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, fewer than one hit ale out per inning.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Bradley is allowed no more of the tour in runs
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: than any of his outings so far. Dude, I mean,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: maybe Bradley is taking the next step in his career man,
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: because he's always had pretty good strikeouts stuff. It's just
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: that he hasn't really become what maybe he could. Maybe
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: it's happening this year. He actually threw He's throwing one
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: hundred pitches in basically every outing this year, and he
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: seems to just be continuing to pitch pretty well.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: So very very interesting.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: And the more interesting thing is he spent most of
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: his career with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay traded him around
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: the trade deadline last year. This will be his first
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: time facing Tampa Bay, so I think he might get
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: up for this game. So this is the problem that
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: I have with liking Tampa Bay here, because Tampa has
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: arrest advantage today and whatever. So yeah, that's an advantage
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: for Tampa Bay. But Bradley might really get up for this, Like, Hey,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: you traded me away, I'm gonna come out there and
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: show you why you shouldn't have, you know what I mean.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: I think Bradley's gonna really get up for.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: It, even though Tampa Bay they probably know what he
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: throws and whatever because he was on their team, but
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: they might not hit him that well, and he might
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: have extra motivation here is what I'm saying. Tampa Bay,
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: they only have three hitters who have faced him before.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: They have actually hit him okay in eleven at bats
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: three sixty four average one thousand ops. Mullins has a
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: home run off him, but they do also have six
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: strikeouts against him and no walks, so it's been literally
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: hit or miss against them. I think he might do
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: pretty well here though he's going up against Drew Rasmussen,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: which you know he he is the guy that you
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: probably want if you do want Tampa Bay here because
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: they're starting pitching is really not terrific. But you know,
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: they have a lot of like decent pitchers in there,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: and he's obviously one of them. He's been better than
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: decent two point seventy five ERA point six to six whip,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: but with Rasmussen, they keep him on a pitch count,
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: so he goes way fewer pitches into these games than
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Bradley does. He's coming off his worst start of the season.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: He got knocked around by Pittsburgh, and that I think
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: was the game where we lost the first five under.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: I think that was Rasmussen's schemes and we somehow lost
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: the first five under.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Hopefully that's not gonna happen today. Hint hint. No, not
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: this game though.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: But maybe that was a little bit of a fluke
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: because his other starts were good. He was coming off
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: of a really good outing against the Yankees the outing
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: before that, so he might have been in a little
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: bit of a letdown spot. I guess that was kind
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: of a concern there, but I still I didn't think
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: that was gonna happen. I did not think he was
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: gonna be as bad as he was.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I think he probably bounces back though.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty consistent for Tampa and they know how
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: to use him without overworking him. He's going up against Minnesota.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: His numbers are okay against him. In thirty four at bats,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: eleven strikeouts, two walks. That's good two thirty five average
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: allowed seven to seventy eight ops.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: The ops is a little bit high.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: It's because Buckston has three home runs off him, though
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: basically nobody else in this lineup does a lot of
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: damage against him, so if he is able to pitch
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: around him, he should do okay. And overall this year,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: by the way, twenty to three strikeout walk ratio and
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: ten hits allowed in nineteen to two thirds innings.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: That's some good stuff. Uh.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: As far as the market read on the side here,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: the money is actually fading Tampa Bay. They're up to
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: minus one to twenty two, even though Tampa Bay has
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: a rest advantage.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Sixty six percent of tickets and only fifty.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Four percent of the cash on them, So the money
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: is fading the rest advantage here, which is pretty crazy.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: I like the first five under though, I think Bradley.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, at least the market the money seems to
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: be coming in backing Minnesota with Bradley here, so that's
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: a decent sign that they think he's gonna pitch.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Well. Total is low at seven and a half.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I think you could go back to the well with
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: this and go first five under here. Just their matchup
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: numbers do concern me a little bit here, but yeah,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: I think that's the best way to play it. Ninety
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets and eighty seven percent of the
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, So the over is very public here,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: and that kind of makes sense because the bullpens stink
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: and the offenses have been overperforming, so maybe they're getting
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: too much credit here from.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Like the public.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, but the bullpens are so bad I would
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: not want to include them in the under obviously, So
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: I would go first five under in this one.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: You know, they might get you there.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: With Bradley pitching really well this year, motivated spot for him,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Rasmussen bounce back spot probably pretty consistent. The matchup numbers
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: aren't who here, so I don't know. This is probably
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: one of my stronger opinions of the day. Actually, I
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: would go, yeah, first five under, but you're probably looking
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: at three and a half. But you know, I mean,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: these are not household pitching names, you know what I mean,
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: So that might help out because again the public doesn't
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: want anything to do with an under, like they don't
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: know who these pitchers are, you know what I mean?
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: Would be my opinion there. Philadelphia at Atlanta. This is
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: on Apple TV. All the rest of these games are
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: MLB except for one other game. There's an Apple doubleheader
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: and then ESPN Unlimited has the game that we're gonna
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: have a play on, but you probably already know what
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: it is.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's won the last two games here.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: They beat Washington the last two games they won three
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: out of four against them. Actually, Atlanta's still pretty hot, man,
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: and they're coming into Philadelphia and or coming home. Actually
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: my mistake, So Atlanta's actually returning home from Philadelphia and Washington.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Return home spot not the greatest spot, as I keep saying.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: Although this they're staying on the East Coast though, playing
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: all divisional opponents, so that's not as bad of a
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: return home spot, but still could be a bit of
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: a distraction, and they might actually overlook Philadelphia because this
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: is a quick revenge spot for Philadelphia after Atlanta just
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: went into Philadelphia and swept them two series ago.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: This is the type of spot I tend to look.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: For where the team that got swept at home starting
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: the next series on the road, like quick revenge against
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: that team. It usually is a pretty motivated spot for
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: that road team, and the home team might overlook that team,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So that has been looking
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: at Philadelphia. Situational spot does favor Philadelphia here both teams
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: did play yesterday. Philadelphia is coming in from playing the Cobs,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: so they're continuing a road trip here. Did not have
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: it well and you know, did not play well against
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: the Cobbs. Philadelphia has lost a bunch of games in
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: a row. They're the team with the longest losing street
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: now with nine. I think they do not to become
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: the Mats. You know you're gonna get an effort out
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: of them. But the problem is they played a big
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: game yesterday against the Cubs.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Zude.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: That was an extra inning game, that was a close game,
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if Philly they might be in
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: a hangover spot after that, So that worries me. Yeah,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: I think the situation is definitely negative for Atlanta, and
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: there are some positives for Philly here, but that's a negative.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: The fact they had a huge game yesterday and almost
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: beat the Cubs. I could see this being a little
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: bit of a hangover coming into this one. Bullpen usage,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: Atlanta does have the better bullpen. They used two relief
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Philadelphia had to go to extra innings and
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: they used five, So Atlanta does have a bullpen advantage here.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: They have the best ranked bullpen in baseball based on WHIP.
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: You know, I think they are one of the best bullpens,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: at least, probably not as good as San Diego still,
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: but good. Phillies have not done well out of the
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen last year. They weren't really that good either. They're eighteenth,
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: so yeah, Atlanta does have a better bullpen and the
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: more rested bullpen. And Atlanta has been hitting really well
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: this year too.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: All very shocking, dude, this is Atlanta team.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: They're doing all this with like three of their starting
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: pitchers injured too, so when those guys come back, this
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: is gonna be a very dangerous Atlanta team. Crazy and yeah,
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: of course, hitting wise, yeah, Phillies have really really struggled.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: They're at twenty sixth, even though obviously the Phillies have
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of talent in this lineup, and I don't
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: think they can continue.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Hitting this poorly.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: Andrew Payne or his pitching for Philadelphia, you know, I've
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: had good things to say about paining or his numbers
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: don't look great so far. Four point four two ERA,
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: one point three six WHIP. He's a young guy. He's
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: twenty three.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: He's a rookie.
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: You know, he made his Major league debut I think
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: two starts ago or something. But I think he's talented.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: You know, I talked about him in his major league debut.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: He's a very highly talented, highly touted prospect. I think
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: he does have major league stuff. He's been up and down.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: He's basically allnated good and bad starts. He's actually a
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: four starts so far, and he's been good, bad, good bad.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: That would mean that this start would be a good
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: one if that continues. But the problem is, in all
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: these starts so far, he's had an unfamiliarity advantage. You know,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: I talk about that when this young star or not
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: star pitcher, but young starting pitcher that has good stuff
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: is unfamiliar to the opposing hitters, a lot of times
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: they struggle to figure him out. Well, the problem with
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: that is that Atlanta just faced him and he actually
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: did not do great in that start. Went four innings,
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: give it, three in runs, five hits, four strikeouts, one walk.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: That's not bad.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Now, definitely he could potentially do better this time. That
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: is certainly possible that he does better than that this time.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: He's got good enough stuff that I think he can.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: But the problem is that Atlanta went into that game
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: not even having seen him before, did that and now
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: they're familiar with him, so that takes away his unfamiliarity
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: edge because Atlanta just saw him.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: So that's a little bit of an issue.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: That was seventeen at bats that these current Atlanta hit
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: had against him, two ninety four batting average, eight sixty
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: three ops, four to one strike at walk ratio. Like
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I said, so those are all those numbers. So Atlanta
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: was able to hit him, and that is I guess
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: that is the concern there.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: He is going up against grant homes.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Homes hasn't been that good at home this year, even
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: though last year he really thrived at home. Last year
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: he was really good at home and not very good
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: on the road, and that was a larger sample size,
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: so I put more weight into that than what we've
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: seen out of him so far this year.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: His numbers this year do look pretty good.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Three point four two ERA, one point one whip dig into.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: It a little bit though.
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: The walks are a concern. He's not a huge strike
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: up pitcher either. Twenty one strikeouts, eleven walks in twenty
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: six and a third innings, eighteen hits allowed. As good,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: he's allowed very few hits, but he's struggled in his
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: last couple of starts. He hasn't made it five innings
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: in either of the last two, and one of those,
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: of course, was in that Philadelphia series, so he pitched
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: at Philadelphia. He was very inefficient with his pitches in
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: that game. He only lasted four and thirds eighty one pitches.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: Not very inefficient, but inefficient enough either they took him
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: out of the game.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Uh you know, I mean, I.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: My Mendoza line is basically, you should throw fifteen pitches
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: an inning, which I guess that's not too bad. The
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: four and two thirds, I think is what's throwing me off,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: because that is close to five. If you get through
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: five innings through eighty you know, with eighty pitches, that's
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: actually not too bad.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: But I'm also old school.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: But anyway, he gave up two runs in four to
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: two thirds innings in that outing, four strikeouts, one walk.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: It wasn't like the worst outing going against Philadelphia.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good against the Phillies and thirty four
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: at bats twelve strikeouts is a lot. Seven walks though,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: is not good, so a little bit of wildness there,
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: but three walks to Bryce Harper, he might just pitch
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: around him. Two six batting average allowed overall to them
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: six sixty five ops. Not the worst numbers there. You know,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: the situation has to be liking Philly. The market read
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: does save Philly. Atlanta dropped for minus one seventy five
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: to minus one forty six. I think that price was
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: definitely too high at one seventy five. The money seems
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: to like Philadelphia here. I did say the situation does
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: favor them seventy three percent of tickets only fifty eight
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Atlanta.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: I agree with a slight lean.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: To Philadelphia, but I think if you go Philadelphia you
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: got to take the Bullpens out. Even though the situation
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: does look good, I do not want to trust the bullpens.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: So you could go first five with Philly and Painter
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: I think does have the ability to pitch grant homes here.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: Other than that, you know, first five under could make
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: some sense here, even though the total is fairly high
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: on the game at nine. It dropped from nine and
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: a half, but sixty seven percent of tickets eighty eight
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over money seems to
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: be backing the over a little bit, but I don't
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: want to trust Philly's bullpen. Again, it is possible, will
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: both starting pitchers get you there in the first five innings,
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: We'll probably get like a five on that, which seems
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: a bit high for this pitching matchup. So maybe there
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: is some value going under in the first five innings.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: And these teams are both seen as more offensive than pitching,
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: which I think is true for Philadelphia and not really
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: that true for Atlanta.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: So do with that information what you want.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: Anaheim at Kansas City, as this show is taking way
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: too long today. Kansas City is staying at home and
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: has rest. Anaheim also has rest, I believe. I think
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: neither team played yesterday, but Anaheim is traveling in from Anaheim.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: So they're starting a road trip.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: Kansas City does have a travel edge, but a lot
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: of times when the team starts a road trip, they
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: will be focused. And Anaheim beat Toronto in the last game,
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: which ended a four game losing streak for them, so
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: when teams in losing streets that sometimes.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Gives them momentum.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: So it does look like a positive momentum spot for Anaheim,
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: but with more travel, so the city travel advantage here.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens have been pretty bad so far.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Kansas City.
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: I was looking at hitting there, Kansas City, where are
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: they at?
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: What the hell is going on? He oh?
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they are second worst bullpen and whip worst
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: bullpen in era.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Very very surprising, man Like.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: That can't all be because they brought the walls and
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: in their stadium, even though it looks like their stadium
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: has had higher scoring in it than we've seen.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: In the past. But I don't know what's going on.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's just that.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: But the bullpen, based on last year, their bullpen should
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: be better than this, some of the same guys there,
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: but it's been a very bad bullpen. Angels not much
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: better at twenty first. So these are two bullpens you'd.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Be looking to fade.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: I would say, even though they're both rested, they're both
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: pretty untrustworthy.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: They're both bad.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's offense has also been bad at twenty fifth,
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: that makes more sense, so you know, the moving the
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: walls in and their stadium hasn't helped that aspect. So
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: they're getting the worst of everything right now. Anaheim has
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: been hitting pretty well. They're tied in seventh in ops. Yeah,
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: Anaheim does have the better offense here, probably they do
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: not have the better starting pitcher, though you say Kakuchi
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Anaheim. Not good numbers this year five
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: point six three ERA and one point six to three WHIP.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: That's some bad stuff. He usually is bad on the
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: road as well. Throughout his entire career, he's been a
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: lot better at home than on the road. That's been
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: the case with Anaheim as well. I think it's the
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: case this season too. Yeah, it's he has extreme splits
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: this season two home ERA three point twenty seven, road
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: ERA seven point six to two. So again it's continuing
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: he's bad on the road. His last start was really good,
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: but of course it was at home against San Diego,
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: who can't hit well, but neither King Kansas City. He
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: shut them out for six innings, eight strikeouts, one walk.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is good overall, twenty seven strikeouts and
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: twenty four innings, but eleven walks into twenty eight hits allowed.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: That's not gonna cut it. That was really his only
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: good start of the season, and Anaheim's lost his last
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: four outings.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: You can't trust Kakuchi.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: Here man, although he is going up against a pretty
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: weak offense here, and he also has actually really good
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: numbers against Kansas City and seventy three at bats twenty
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: four to two strikeout walk ratio one thirty seven average,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: three to ninety three ohps.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: So, you know, I was.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: Looking at this and thinking, maybe we want to fade
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Kokuchi because he's bad.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: He's bad on the road.
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: He has dominant numbers against these Kansas City hitters, though,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: so that is not something I really am interested in fading.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: This might be like a really good matchup for him here.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: He's going up against the much younger Noah Cameron.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: He pitched well.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: Last year, which I think was his debut season for
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: Kansas City.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: I like him.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I think he's pretty good, but his numbers are not
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: good this year. Five point four ERA, one point four
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: to five WHIP. He had two good starts to start
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: off the season. He's had two bad starts since then.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: One was kind of inexcusable at home against the White Sox.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: The other one is more excusable on the road.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Against the Yankees. I think you can excuse that overall.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, his numbers are.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Not horrible overall, seventeen to six strike up walk ratios,
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: I think that's fine, just given that he's not really
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: a strike up pitcher. But he's allowed twenty three hits
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: in twenty innings. That's not great. But I think he's
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: better than these numbers make him look. Right now, he's
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: going up against Anaheim, who have been hitting pretty well, though,
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: but he does have pretty good numbers against him, but
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: a very small eleven at bat sample size four to
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: four strike out walk ratio is not good. But they
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: only have a one to eighty two average against them
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: and five eighty two oh ps and zero extra base hits,
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: so I don't expect Cameron to really do that poorly here.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean too Kansas City here. I mean, they
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: do have a travel advantage, and I think overall, I think, yeah,
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: they should have the starting pitching advantage.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: They flipped from plus one of four to minus one
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: o eight Anaheim to a public side. I mean, the
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: public is pretty much always going to side with the
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: better hitting team, especially when they're an underdog.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Sixty tickets fifty nine.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: Percent of the cash on Anaheim, but they look like
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: a dreaded public road underdog here, which is not really
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: what you want. So the market read is saying Kansas City.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be indicating on the under. The
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: total was briefly at nine and a half but heavily
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: juice to the under. Now we're looking at eight and
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: a half juice to the under. I think some legitimate
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: movement towards the under here sixty percent of tickets on
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: the over nine to nine percent of the cash on
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: the under.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: But the good news about losing.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: That nine and a half there is I would not
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: recommend a full game under here because these bullpens suck
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: even though they're rested now.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: The rest also is twofold because.
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: It can cool off the bats, So I think the
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: fact that these teams are rested that does indicate towards
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: an under. But I would go first five under here,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: And you do have to worry about Kakuchi, that would
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: be my concern there. Maybe worrying about Cameron's current form
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit too, But the Matt number looks really
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: you know, Kakuchi's matchup numbers look really good, and Cameron
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: is capable of having a good performance here, so first
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: five undermakes some sense in that one as well. Those
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: will be my thoughts on that, and yeah, with the
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: full game you know, with Kansas City with the side
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: full game might make sense. I mean, their bullpen's bad,
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: but so is Anaheim, So I don't know if one
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: has that much of an advantage over the other. I
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: guess Kansas Cities is a bit worse, but that one,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: you know, I think it's a little bit of a
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: toss up in the bullpens, all right, best bets.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: This is the only play that I have.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: Oh in my mistake, by the way, I think I
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: I think I didn't update this right. I think this
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: is the last twenty days now, is that right? Sorry,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: I gotta fix the tick. Are you My heart has problems?
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: That's what I mean. It actually does congenital.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Heart defect, all right? But yes, the best bet is
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: coming in now.
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: It seems too obvious, but this is like a typical
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: play for me. Pittsburgh Milwaukee first five under the three
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: and a half is what we're going with here. I
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: saw this number right there at minus one ten at
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to remember which book it was, because the
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: other books had it slightly juiced, but maybe you could
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: still do it at minus one fifteen.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Whatever. I don't think that's that bad of an idea.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: You know, I wouldn't really want to go all the
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: way down to a three on this though to get
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: a better price, though, I think probably up to about
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: minus one fifteen on the under three and a half
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: is fine. Some of the books were juiced heavier than that.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: They were kind of all over the place. Hold on,
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: I can tell you what book it was. I mean,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: it depends on what you have available to you in
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: your state.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Of course. Let me see here.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: If the number is still available, it is It was
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: that the book that has the lie and starts with
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: an M. You know what I'm talking about, an FD.
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: If you have that available, their price is not much worse.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: DraftKings doesn't even seem to have a number up on
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: it yet. Oh sorry, I mean d kay, the Crown
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: doesn't seem to have it up yet. But anyway, yeah,
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: I think you'll be able to find a decent number
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: on this. It seems too obvious because this is a
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: Skeens game, and you know, the books obviously have to
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: skew the schemes Paul Skewns, they have to skew that
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: number towards an under. But I think that we're getting
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: still a decent number on this because Pittsburgh and Milwaukee
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: are both seen as having pretty good offenses, which is true.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's three relief pitchers yesterday, by the way, Milwaukee used five,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: but they used three of them for single digit pitches,
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: So including their closer, I think he's still their closer McGill,
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: so he might be available again today depending on how
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: the game goes. This is a new series as all
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: these are Milwaukee's returning on from a road trip, though,
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: so it's not a great spot for Milwaukee.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: They went to Miami in Detroit.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: Still, it's kind of a quick trip back from Detroit,
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: and they did lose the series to Detroit. But you know,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: I talk about teams struggle when they return home from
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: road trips, and now Milwaukee they do hit well at
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: home typically, but I think they've been hitting better on
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: the road this year. Actually, the road hitting has been
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: better this season. You can correct me if I'm wrong
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: about that, But again we're gonna counter that with the
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup here, you know what I mean. So, and
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: returning home sometimes the distractions bleed into the hitting, you
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. When teams come home, they get distracted,
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: have to get back to home life. That can kind
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: of affect the hitting a little bit. Now. I don't
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: think either team is going to be totally distracted here though,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: because it is a big divisional game or series. Both
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: these teams are above five hundred, even though they're at
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: the bottom of the division. That's just insane. I think
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: clearly Saint Louis is the worst team in this division though.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: It's just ridiculous. The entire division is above five hundred
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: right now. Pittsburgh, I believe, played yesterday as well. Yeah,
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: they're coming in from Texas, so they're traveling in from
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: losing the series in Texas. They played yesterday, Like I
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: showed you no real bullpen advantage or disadvantage. But we're
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: gonna take them out of this play because I don't
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: love the bullpens here and they're a little bit unrested.
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee has the twenty fourth best bullpen whip. They're putting
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: over one and a half guys on basin inning. That's
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: just something I can't really deal with, man, So I
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: don't want to include them here. Pittsburgh's bullpen is not great.
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: They're era looks pretty good in the threes, but their
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: whip is one point thirty nine they're in the middle
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: of the pack here. I don't really trust their bullpen fully,
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: so we'll just eliminate it from the equation and focus
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: on this what I think is a really good starting
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup. Offense has been good for Pittsburgh. They're at eleventh,
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: but I kind of expect a little bit of regression
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: out of them.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: I think there may be over performing a little bit.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is sixteenth, and yes, Milwaukee does have a good offense,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: but they are still dealing with some injuries in their
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: offense here. Yeah, it looks like they're still missing Vaughn
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: Yellick and Short Chorio I think has been out all season.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so a little bit of a weaker lineup
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: for Milwaukee than usual. And they're going up against Paul
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: Skeens obviously, so that is obviously a big part of
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: this equation, and usually you're not gonna get value with Skeens.
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: But I think going under here, given that the pitcher
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: on the other side of this is not a household name,
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: and the fact that both these offenses are seen as
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: decent offenses, I think this number is actually fine. It
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: makes sense for a Skeens game. Skeens has a three
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: point two to seven ERA point nine to one WIP
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: this season. What do you do in skeens three point
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: two seven. We're used to seeing him with a better
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: ERA than that. Obviously, his numbers are being skewed because
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: he had one bad start. Hilariously, it was against the
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: Mats first game of the season. Obviously you can just
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: throw that out because since then Skeens has allowed one
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: or zero earned runs and all of his other starts.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: Now you might be worried because, oh, he only had
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: four innings in his last start. What happened there? He
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: was shutting out Tampa Bay. That was the game I
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: was thinking of. There was a rain delay in the
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: middle of the game and we had We lost on
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: a first five under in that game too. Even though
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: Skeens was shutting out Tampa Bay there, Rasmussen did not
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: do his part in the game.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: That was what happened in that game.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: We lost it, but there was a rain delay in
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: the game, so that's why both pitchers I think exited
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: the game.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: At that point. Skeens would have continued pitching.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, he was only at sixty four pitches, but
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: that means Skeens is gonna be a little bit, a
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: little bit more rested coming into this game, and he's
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: pitching on regular rest too. Other than the fact that
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: he just threw fewer pitches in that game, he's getting
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: his regularly scheduled starts, So I think that's good. We
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: get a Skeens that he's clearly not overworked. I mean,
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: he hasn't thrown ninety pitches yet in any start, so
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: Pirates are doing a good job not throwing his arm
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: out here. No Dusty Baker stuff going on here, even
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: though I don't know. Man, if I was managing a team,
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: I'm he might let my pitchers work a little bit
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: more than that. Man, I'm too old school Skins against
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: the Brewers, he does have pretty good numbers and forty
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: three at bats, fourteen to three strike out walk ratio won,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: sixty three average.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: Allowed ops I guess higher than maybe you would think.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: At five eighty three, that's still really low, though it's
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: skewed a little high just because Frelic and tarrong I
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: both have home runs off him. But I'm not gonna
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: worry too much about that. It's Paul Skeins. He's been
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: in good form since the first start. I think he's
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: ready to go. Matchup numbers look good. He's going up
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: against Brandon Wood Driftin. He's the guy who I think
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: goes under the radar because he missed multiple seasons. He
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: started out, he was really good throughout his whole career,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: pretty much all of it with Milwaukee, and then he
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: did get injured. He had Tommy John surgery, missed all
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four, came back in the middle of
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five and pitched well again.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Had a really high strikeout rate last year.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio last year was five point nine,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: which was the best in his entire career. Granted it
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: was a little bit of a shorter season, but still
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: that indicates that he has not really lost his stuff,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: which is good, and this year seemingly it's continuing. Three
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: point four two era point nine to three whip really
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: nice looking twenty to four strike out walk ratio though
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: few are the ones strike up per inning, but very
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: few walks, and he's only allowed eighteen hits in twenty
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: three and two thirds inning, so he's been good. He
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: said one if he start, which was at Fenway, that
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: Red Sox team got five runs off him. Milwaukee still
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: won the game, but he's allowed two or fewer earned
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: runs and all of his other starts, and you know,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: even in that start against the Red Sox, I think
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: he got slightly unlucky. He did walk too well. I
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: don't know, he walked two guys, had eight hits a lot.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: He was a little bit too hittable, But whatever. Looks
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: like it was kind of a an outlier because he's
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: been good since then, and he's.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: Going up against Pittsburgh here.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: He does have good numbers against them to sixty three
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: career bats, really good, twenty eight to five strike out
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: on op ratio one ninety average allowed, five.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: Point thirty six ops.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: Ozuona has hit him well, he's four for ten of
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: the home run, but nobody else in this lineup has
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: really done damage against him. So you know, if he
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: can get around Ozoona, he should do fine. Otherwise, so
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: we're gonna do it first five under. Maybe it seems
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: too obvious. The money seems to be kind of disagreeing here.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: Full game totals at seven sixty three percent tickets seventy
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on the over. But you know,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: I mean I would not play an if I was
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: gonna go over in this game. Obviously I would do
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: it full game here because I would want to include
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: the bullpens.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: And try to get that advantage there.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: But obviously with the under, I think the advantage is
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: going with the starting pitching here. Hopefully it's gonna be
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: a pitching duel. Let's get it done. It looks like
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: I style of game. I like these pitching duels. The
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers look good.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: Let's do it.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: As far as the side, Pittsburgh has taken some of
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: the money here seventy two percent of tickets, eighty two
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash minus one twenty eight on pitts though.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I think you have to pay
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: attacks for Paul Skins. I don't know if I agree
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: with the money in that one.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: I might slightly lean Milwaukee because I think Woodruff could
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: definitely battle schemes here. I think it could be a
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: close game and then you know, anything could happen, and
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: getting Milwaukee is a dog and what's maybe a close,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: low scoring game here. Probably I would lean to the
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: home dog there, but obviously my preference is.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: First five under. Next game up.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: I almost gave out a play on this Washington at
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: the White Sox. This would be my second strongest opinion.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: White Sox are returning on from a road trip, which
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: worries me, and actually it worries me about my opinion
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: in this game too. The White Sox went to the
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: A's and then Arizona, so they're returning home from the West,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: which isn't great. You know, I don't like teams returning
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: home from road trips. I don't like them crossing time zones.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: So that's a bit of an issue there. I think
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: could be a little bit distracted.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Coming back home.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: White Sox offenses maybe looked a little too good recently,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: although the last couple of games will yesterday maybe not
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: so much. They only scored four runs, though they did
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: win in a shockingly low scoring game against Arizona yesterday.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Now the reason why.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Because my opinion here is to go over the total
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: in this game. I like the over here, but teams
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: are turning over from road trips. They're batting can be
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: a little bit off, you know, the timing can be.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: A little bit off. That's a little bit of a worry.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: Wouldn't totally keep me off of it, though Washington is
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: coming into this game traveling starting a road trip, so
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: they will have more focus here, which I think does
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: kind of help the offense. So that kind of negates
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: that a little bit, I guess. So where you might
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: get an offensive laps on one side, maybe you'll get
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: offense on the other side from the better offense. Washington,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: they're traveling off of losing to a Landa, they might
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: show up with some focus, man, because when things aren't
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: going well at home, even though I think Washington's a
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: bad team, but going on the road, focus on baseball,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: you know, bullpen wise, here, Washington used three relief pitchers
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: yesterday the White Sox used two. So another thing that
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: helps us with the over here is that the offenses
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: might continue to just be in rhythm because even though
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are traveling, neither team has a day
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: off here.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: But that's part of the reason why I like the over.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: The other reason, obviously, is the bullpens are not as rested,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: and these bullpens are bad. Like that's one of the
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: main components of this over opinion. Here we're looking at
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: bad bullpens. The White Sox have the worst bullpen whip
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: in baseball. One of the worst eras as well. Washington
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: is bottom five up I think in both as well.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: These are bad bullpens, dude, So these bullpens could definitely.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: Get taken for a ride here.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: Washington has the fifth best offense still based on ops,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: so they've been able to score runs. The White Sox
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: offense is getting better. They're at eighteenth now, so they're
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: not like a total dorm out of an offense thanks
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: to Murakami who is getting a lot of home runs there.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: For that White Sox team, I think they're no longer
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: at least like a total laughing stock on offense, so
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: that helps. And they're going up against Miles Mikolas, which
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: also probably helps because he's been awful. Nine point one
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: five YRA one point nine to eight whip.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: His career is going to be over soon. Man.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: He did have his best start of the season last
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: time out against San Francisco, shut them out for four innings.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: But San Francisco they've been a bad offense, and you know,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: it looks like more of a fluke to me. And
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: Mikolas has only gone five innings once this season. He
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: hasn't done it at all in April and overall, fifteen
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: to end strike a walk ratio that's really bad. Plus
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: twenty nine hits allout in nineteen or two thirds innings,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: that's not good. Those numbers are not going to cut it.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: He's going up against the White Sox done. This is
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: where I kind of have an issue with totally, you know,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: going over here. I mean, you don't want to put
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: that much weight into a very small sample size. But
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are not familiar with them. They only
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: three hitters have seen him before and they're one for
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: ten with no extra base hits, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: So that worries me a little bit, Like I wanted
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: to see Mikolas having really bad numbers against these guys,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: but that's just not the case.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: So that's a little bit worrisome.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: And then Chicago, I don't know what they're doing here, man,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: because on the big board here, uh you know the
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: actual oh, they have switched to Hudson. I was gonna
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: say FEddi was listed as the starter here, but now
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: it looks like.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: It is going to be Hudson.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: But I think what's gonna happen is Hudson is gonna
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: be an opener. And then Fedti is gonna come in
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: behind him. So if you're gonna play the over in
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: this game, I would make it action, because really we
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: don't know if the White Sox are actually gonna use
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: Hudson as the opener or if they're gonna.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: Go with Fedti just right out of the gate. But
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: it's going to be one of the two.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: I'm almost positive, And I don't think it really matters
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: as far as the over whichever one of the Chicago
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: pitchers comes in here. I think the handicap kind of
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: remains the same. So this is one of the players
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: where I would say go action, whereas the de fault
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: Baseball bet is that the list of starters must start.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: But this is one of the.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: Cases where I would just roll it go with action here.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: So Hudson is listed as a starter. Now he has
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: a one point six ninety RA, which is fine, but
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: he has a one point five to nine whip which
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: is really bad. He's pitching out of the bullpen, so
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think we want to go into his numbers
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: too much here, Like he's gonna be an opener, he's
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: probably gonna go one inning, and you know he's been
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: scoreless for a while now. He hasn't allowed any runs
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: in April, so yeah, he might go out there and throw.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: A scoreless inning.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: Obviously that's possible, but you know, I still don't really
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: trust it. And then the White Sox bullpen is gonna
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: be coming in at some point, which I don't like.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: But it does look like it will be Eric Fetti
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: probably getting pretty much a starter's workload.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Here, so you do have to factor that in.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: And that's kind of where I worry about the over here,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: because if you were gonna get an opener and then
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: it was just gonna be a bullpen game from the
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: White Sox, maybe that would push me over the edge
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: to doing it. But Feedti, he's actually been okay this year,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: three point nine two era, one point one to one whip.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: You know, his walk number is still pretty bad though,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: fifteen to seven strike up walk ratio, sixteen hits a
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: lot on twenty two thirds innings. But he's actually been
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: pretty decent. He's gone five or more innings in all
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: but one start, and that one start that was his
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: worst start where he did walk too many guys was
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: in that horrible as stadium, so you could maybe chalk
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: that up to being a little bit of an outlier.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: You know, it is possible that a change in scenery,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: Fetti going back to the White Sox where he used
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: to be a while ago, maybe that's helped him out.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, Because Fetti was like a complete
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: fade last year when he was on Saint Louis. I
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: think this year maybe that's not so much the case.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Although the White Socks have lost all four of his outings,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: but you know, some of that is because he got
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: no run support.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, it certainly is possible that he gets lit
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: up here, but some of this worries me. And he
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: does really well against Washington thirty four at bats to
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: decent sample, even though not all of their heroes have
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: faced him. But that might even help him a little
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: bit more. Six strikeouts, no walks, one forty seven average
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: left three twenty four ohps. And I think you because
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: he was listed as the starter up until like less
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: than an hour ago, I think that means we know, like,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: because you know that this Hudson guy, we pretty much
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: know he's an opener.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: He's gonna give you one inning. And I'm almost.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: Positive because they listed Fetti as the starter, he is
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: going to be the guy that comes in and probably
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: goes like five innings in this game, so you do
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: have to factor that in. That would be my assumption
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: that that's gonna happen here if he doesn't just start
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: the game out right, which he might. But you know,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: the last time I talked about that with Colorado, they
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: actually used a different pitcher. They actually used Dollander when
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: I thought it was gonna be Sugano coming in after
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: the opener. But you know, we don't know for sure.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: But that's how I'm looking at that game. I do
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: lean over. Doesn't quite make my card, but I like it.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: It's the totals at nine and a half, heavily juiced
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: to the under those, it looks like you might be
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: able to get a nine.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: That's what I would try to find.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: Go over nine in this game because nine is the
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: key number, you know, and definitely full game, because you
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: want to include these bullpens.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: The bullpens are awful.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: Or sixty five percent of tickets on the over, ninety
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: two percent of the cash on the over, so the
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: money seems.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: To support the over. Here, White Sox.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: Got up to a minus one twenty two favorite, but
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: the money's coming back on Washington. I don't know why
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: you would want to back mekal Us here though, I
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: don't know, Man, sixty percent of tickets are on the
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: White Sox, seventy one percent of the cash on Washington now. Situationally, yes,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: Washington is starting a road trip and the White Sox
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: are returning from one. So yeah, the situation does line
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: up better for Washington here.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: I agree with.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: That, but I can't back mekalus Man. There's just no way.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: So those are my thoughts there, Kyle, what's up? Thanks
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. I need to get a Kyle drop
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: from South Park just for you. All right, what do
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: we want to do here? We're well over an hour here.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: This is taking a while. We still have to do playoffs. Playoffs,
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: and I like the NBA board a lot today. I
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: think we get some really nice setups in the NBA today.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: I have two NBA plays, which I already bet both
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: of them, by the way, too, so I'm endorsing these
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: NBA plays quite a bit. Let me take a break,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: I'll be back. We'll finish off this baseball slate here,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: and then you know, I'll have some other kind of
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: weakish opinions in baseball, and then we'll do.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: We'll do the hockey and stuff.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: All right, I don't know if I can zoom out
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: and show the whole baseball board here. I guess like basically,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: ken might not be readable though, all right, I'll be
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: back in a second. Uh. Actually, yeah, I think I
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: think I got all of it. Ah, unreadable though, all right? Right,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: next game up is A's and Texas. A's and the
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: Rangers homeless at Texas. Texas played yesterday. They're staying at home,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: so at least there's that. But yes, they did play,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: whereas the A's did not. The A's are coming in
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: from playing in Seattle, so they're traveling across time zones here.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: But they do have rest.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: But their bullpen is not particularly good. Now, Texas did
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: use three relief pitchers yesterday, but their bullpen is pretty good.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: So Texas, I think you still give them a bullpen
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: edge year, even though they're a little bit less rested.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen is moving up the ranks. They're at sixth
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: in whip, their era might be the second best. Maybe
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: they're a good bullpen. Let's just leave it at that.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: The A is not so much twenty third and Whip
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: not a great era either, So yeah, Texas, despite the
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: lack of rest, they got the better bullpen. This is
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: a much more pitcher friendly park than the A's are
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: used to at their horrible Triple A stadium, so that's
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: something to keep in mind here as well. Hitting wise,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: the A's that they do have the better offense, even
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: though they've been actually a little bit worse than Texas.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: Thirteenth versus seventeenth. Texas above the A's here in ops,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: but I don't really find that to be accurate. I
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: think the A's are the better offense, although it's kind
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: of surprisingly they've been a little bit worse than Texas
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: this year. They're getting better though, But you think that
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: the A's the park that they play in versus Texas's,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: you know, should really skew the numbers in the direction
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: of the A's. Luis Severino is pitching for the A's
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: and we pretty much know the deal with him.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: At least last year.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: He was really good on the road and he was
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: terrible at home, terrible in that A's stadium, so he was.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: Like a different pitcher.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: This year it sort of seems to be going in
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: that direction too. He has a seven point one five
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: VRRA at home. It is better on the road five
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: point four, so he is better on the road again.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: Last year was even more extreme.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: This year is overall numbers are just pretty bad though,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: six point two ERA, one point seven whip. You know
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: his road starts. One of them was against Atlanta. I
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: mean he had them against Toronto, Atlanta, New York. I
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: mean those are not easy offenses to face.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: Really.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: He had a ton of walks though. The walks are
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: really a concern with him though. Twenty seven to twenty
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is insane. That is way too many
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: walks in twenty.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Four and two thirds innings. He's all have fewer than
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: one hit per inning.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: But the walks are a huge issue for him here
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: going up against Texas.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have good numbers against Texas either. So if
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: you think he's.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: Gonna be, you know, do well on the road, you
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: can make that argument. But he has not been good
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: against these Texas hitters in the past. Ninety two at batsworth,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: nineteen to nine, strike out walk ratio, three fifteen batting
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: average allowed, nine.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: Eighty six ops.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: Those are bad numbers and if you want player props
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: and whatever, Jake Berger seven for nineteen with two and
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: four home runs off him, three strikeouts on a walk,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: so maybe you could go grab a burger. I always
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: recommend hits plus runs plus RBIs though him doing it
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: that way.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: Nimo has also hit him pretty well.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: Five to thirteam with two doubles on a home or
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: four strike gouts two walks. Doesn't look great for seven
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: Reno coming into this, and he is going up against
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: Nathany Yavaldi, who, despite his season numbers here evolved, he's
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: definitely the better pitcher.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, we saw it last year.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: He was still really good last year, and I don't
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: think he's totally falling off yet.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: Five point zero six ERA, one point five for whip.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: I know that's not good, but overall this season twenty
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: nine strike outs in twenty six to two thirds innings,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: his strike gut stuff still appears.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: To be there.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: Ground ball rate is good higher than the fly balls,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: despite a looting five home runs that seems kind of
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: fluky to me though. And he's allowed too many hits though,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: which is kind of the problem. Thirty three hits in
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: twenty six to two thirds innings. That is an issue,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: but his last three starts have been good. He's gone
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: at least five innings and all three of them two
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: or fewer and runs allout in all of them. Granted,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: two of them were against Seattle and one of them
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: was in Seattle, and Seattle hasn't been hitting that well.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: One of them was at that horrible A's stadium, and
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: you know, he did really well in that start. Now,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: maybe the issue with that, though, was that the A's
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: just saw him. So I talk about that he shut
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: them out for seven innings, so he might regress a
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: little bit after that, and maybe the A's will because
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: they just saw him. Maybe the A's will have something
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: up their sleeve. We won on that game, by the way,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: I gave it a play in Texas. In that game,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure it was some really bad situational spot
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: for the A's and I like the pitching matchup, and
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: in fact, I think it was Evaldi against Severino probably.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: But you know, Evaldi might do worse in this game.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: But does that mean he's gonna do bad? Maybe not,
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: because you know, he could do worse than that and
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: still have a good outing here, obviously, because that was
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: a really good outing from him against the A's throughout
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: his career. These numbers are pretty good and seventy one
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: at bats twenty two to six strikeout walk race here,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: two fifty four batting average allowed and six seventy eight. Ohps,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: there's nothing really bad about this, so I think he
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: is definitely the more trustworthy pitcher here, even though we're
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: looking at a road game for seven Reno where he
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: should do a little bit better. But yeah, so seven
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: Reno was the picture in that game against Texas, so
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: I forgot to mention that. So both pitchers have that
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: same disadvantage where these opposing lineups did see both of
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: these pictures, you know, two starts ago, so that kind
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: of gets negated, right because also these pictures have been
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: around forever, so they're not unfamiliar to these hitters anyway,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: So it doesn't really matter.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: So what do we do with this game?
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I kind of like Texas with
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in on the a's here. Texas
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: does have the rest disadvantage. I know they're down to
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: minus one forty two, but this pitching matchup just looks
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: crazy to I mean, and then I still like Texas
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: as the better bullpend too. Fifty eight percent of tickets
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: on Texas sixty percent of the cash on the A's though,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: so the money's coming out in the A's. I don't know, dude.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: I don't want to disagree with them with market reads
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: like this though, so you got to take what I'm saying,
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: you know, just take it all in at once, and
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: I would keep watching the screen on pregame, like see
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: what the market does throughout the day, you know what
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: I mean. But obviously I'm not going to play this game,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: but the money is saying as I see multiple reasons
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: why I think Texas should be able to win that game,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: So you know, it's a game that is a pass.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Yankees at Houston.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: Of course, the Yankees are coming up sweeping the Red Sox.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: They won a bunch of games in a row, six
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: in a row, probably, now they're going to Houston. Houston
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: has a rest advantage here though. Houston is coming back
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: from Cleveland. But it was only a single series road trip,
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: so I'm not too concerned by that. It's kind of
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: a quick trip from Cleveland down to Houston, not too bad.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: But again, they were not on a prolonged road trip,
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: so I don't consider this to be a road trip
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: return spot.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: You're not gonna overlook the Yankees. With the Yankees coming
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: to town.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: Yankees had a slight rest disadvantage here that should help Houston.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: A little bit.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: Yankees only used one relief pitcher yesterday, so the Red
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: Sox offense is so bad they couldn't even get the
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: Yankees to use a bunch of their relief pitchers. It
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: is so bad coming.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: Into this game.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the Yankees do have the better bullpen, even though
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: it's not a great bullpen. They're nineteenth right now. In
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: Whip we have Houston is one of the worst bullpens.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: They're twenty eighth. They're really bad twenty eighth and Whip
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: and you know, one of the worst eras as well,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: So you gotta give the Yankees a bullpen edge still,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: even though generally Houston does have a rest advantage here.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: Both offenses have been good. Yankees have been moving up.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: They're sixth now in offense. Houston's been hitting a lot
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: better than expected at fourth, but the Yankees overall probably
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: have the better offense.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: It's close. Could definitely hit right now.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: Will Warren is pitching for the Yankees, and the thing
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: about Warren is he was not good at all on
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: the road last year, so he pitched well at home
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: with a three point five ERA, but it's five point
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: five two ERA on the road last year, so he
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: was a concern on the road. And I believe he
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: wasn't good at night either last year, I think is
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: what we just saw. So this is kind of the
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: bad of both of his swits here. I haven't really
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: been looking at night day splits much here, but yeah,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: actually no, he was better at night, my mistake. He
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: was worse during the day. But anyway, this year he's
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: been pretty good overall though, two point four to nine ERA,
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: one point one to one whip. But do we have
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: to dial that back a little bit? We might, because
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: he only made one start on the road so far.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: It was his first start. He didn't make it five innings.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: He got a little bit lucky and went four and
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: a third. Uh, he was facing a bad San Francisco offense.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: Any pitcher from the park in San Francisco had a
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: three to two strike out walk ratio there and did
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: allow five hits as well.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: So do we have to.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: Dial with back on Warren here because all of his
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: starts since then have been at home?
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: We might.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, he hasn't a lot more of the tour
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: and runs than any of them, But I just showed
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: you he was a lot better at home than on
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: the road last year. His numbers overall looked really good
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: this year though, thirty one to six strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: twenty two hits, a lot, and twenty five and a
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: third innings. You know, the spoiled bastard. Yankee fans like
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: hate this guy, and I'm telling you he's not that bad.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: His stuff is not that bad, but he might do
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: worse on the road. He is going to Houston here,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: and Houston has been able to hit this year. Houston
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: only has four hitters who've ever faced him before, but
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: they are three for eight with a double from Daz,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: two strikeouts, no walks. Overall, it's a three seventy five average,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: eight to seventy five ops. You can do the math there. Yeah,
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It's a question mark, dude, what we're
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: gonna get out of Warren here and Lance McCullers, Especially
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: for Houston, he's also a question mark. Overall bad numbers
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: this year six point two ERA one point three to
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: eight whip. Houston's lost his last three outings, he hasn't
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: been that good. He does have twenty one strikeouts in
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: twenty to third innings. He's only allowed nineteen hits, so
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: that's all good. The walks have been the issue, nine walks,
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: issuing too many walks, and he's failed to go five
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: innings in two of his four starts.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: That's not good.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: He's been better at home, though, so you got to
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: give him that. He's a three point seventy five home
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: ERA this year, nine point seven to two on the road,
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: including having to pitch in the A's stadium, but also
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: at Seattle, which is much more pitcher friendly.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: But still, I.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: Don't know what we're gonna get out of McCullers do
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: because he tried. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: He's looked really good at times.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: This includes last year as well.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: He's looked really good in some starts and looked really
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: bad in other starts.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what we're gonna get out of
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: him here. And this is not an easy lineup to
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: face the Yankees.
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: His numbers are okay against them in forty seven to bat,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: seventeen to nine strike up walk race here two fifty
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: five average allowed eight twenty two ops. That ops is
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: a little bit higher than I would like, so I'm
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: staying away from the game. But the Yankees are minus
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: one forty two. You know you're gonna pay too much
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: of a price with the Yankees usually. Yeah, they do
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of a bullpen edge here, but
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: Houston does have the rest edge. Yankees could be in
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot off of sweeping the rivalry, which it's
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: not even a rivalry anymore, dude, Like, there are way
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: too many Yankee fans in the stadium now at Fenway,
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: and fucking John Henry, the official Red Sox team store
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: is selling Yankees merchandise.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: Now, fuck off with that. Like what happened to you know?
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: When I was growing up nineties two thousands, nothing was
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: like that. It was all Red Sox, heavily Red Sox
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: favored crowd. No Yankees bullshit in the team store or whatever.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: You had vendors on the street selling Yankees sck T shirts, pisadas,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: a little bitch t sh it's Jeeter drinks wine coolers,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: a rod wears lipstick, all that shit, And now look
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: at this shit, What's what's even going on?
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: They should have had Poisada pisses on his hands. That
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: would have been a good one too, because he does.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: Because if you don't remember, he was one of the
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: only guys in modern baseball who didn't wear batting gloves
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: and to avoid callouses, you literally you.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Piss on your hands.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: So yeah, anyway, Yankees are a super public side, ninety
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, ninety eight percent of the cash on them.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean to Houston here. I think it is
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot for the Yankees, and Houston as a
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: rest advantage, their bullpen is definitely worrisome, you know. That's
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: the way I'm gonna look, though. I wouldn't really disagree
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: with an over either. I could see both pitchers having
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: some issues here, and both offenses can hit. The bullpens
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: are not particularly good even though they're rested. Over kind
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: of makes sense to me here. Warren probably not as
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: good on the road either, But yeah, that's the game
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: I'm staying away from. The pitchers are too much of
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: a mystery. Seattle at Saint Louis. I mean, this should
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: be a mismatch in favor of Seattle here. Saint Louis
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: is also returning on from a road trip, but they
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: went to Houston and Miami, so you know, I talk
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: about that teams are turning on from road trips. A
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: lot of times. They get distracted being back home. They
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: don't focus. I don't know how much focus they're gonna
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: have against a team from the other league that has
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: a lot of name recognition behind them at this point.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: But maybe, you know, because they haven't been playing that well,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: maybe they get overlooked a little bit.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: Seattle.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: Seattle is starting a road trip here, which is usually
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: a positive. They just lost the series to the A's,
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: although they won the last game barely. Might be starting
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: this road trip with some momentum here. I believe both
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: teams are off yesterday, so both teams are rested coming
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: into this game today. Seattle has the better bullpen. Looking
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: at their bullpend, they've actually struggled a bit. They're at
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: fifteenth and bullpen whip. I think they have a pretty
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: strong bullpend though they have a lot of the same
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: guys the last year. Their eray is a lot better
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: than that, so I think you'll see Seattle move back
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: up a little bit in bullpen here. Saint Louis is
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: not good. They're at twenty second almost one and a
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: half whip.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: That's bad.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: Eray over five bad, So yeah, Seattle, you gotta give
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: him a bullpen edge. Offensively, Seattle really just hasn't come
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: around yet. They're at twenty third Saint Louis is only
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: a twentieth throw and I think overall Seattle probably does
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: have the better offense.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: Although it's been close this season.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: George Kirby is pitching for Seattle generally, Yeah, he's definitely
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher in this pitching matchup, So you could
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: make the argument Seattle has the advantage in every aspect
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: of this game situationally, because they're starting a road trip
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: against a team returning home, better starting pitcher, better bullpen,
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: potentially the better offense. The reason why I don't really
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: want to do this is the price in the market.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: Read Kirby also is not quite as good on the road,
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: but overall two point nine to seven ERA from him
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: one point h five whip.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: He's pitched well for Seattle this year.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: Man, He's allowed no more than three or runs in
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: all but one of his outings, which was against the Yankees.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: In in that one he allowed four, so he's been
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: solid overall.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: But he does tend to be a bit better at
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: home than on the road.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: This year twenty seven to eight strike out walk ratio
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: with twenty seven hits allowed in thirty three and a
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: third innings. It's a low hit rate, you know, pretty
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: low walk rate as well. He doesn't strike out in
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: that many guys. He induces a lot of ground balls.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis, by the way, is a fairly pitcher friendly
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: park as well. His numbers against Saint Louis, though, are
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: actually not that good in twenty five at bats, So
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: that's kind of the other reason why I'm worried about
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: the Mariners here. Six to one strike out walk ratio
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: is good, but three twenty batting average allowed to them
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: eight twenty six ops.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: That's not great.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: And Jordan Walker does actually have some at bats against
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: him already.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: Walker, I thought, was.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: Like the young guy who was hitting really well for
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis this year.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's only twenty three.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: He's from Stone Mountain, Georgia, where the Tower Gang guys
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: and I I stayed for the Georgia Convention when we
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: were there. Dude, this guy he does not look twenty three. Dude,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's got some Greg odin shit going on here,
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: even though you I mean, Black doesn't crack man, so
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: he's probably gonna look exactly the same when he's fifty.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: But you know, but Walker's been hitting really well this year.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: Two ninety two average is insane in this day and age.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: I'm used to it being like a good but not
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: great batting average, but batting averages have all gone down
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: the shitter. We need to bring back steroids and all
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: that shit.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: Anyway, Andre Payante is pitching for the Cardinals here.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: He's not very good.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: Four point zero five era is tolerable, but one point
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: four or five whip is pretty bad. He has a
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: really bad twelve to eleven strikeout walk ratio in twenty innings.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: That's bad.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: Eighteen hits the lout is pretty good, but way too
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: many walks. He's not a strikeout guy. He does induce
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: a decent amount of ground balls, but he's not a
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: trustworthy pitcher in my opinion. Against Seattle, his numbers are
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: not bad at all though, and twenty two at bats
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: and only five hitters who have faced him three to
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: four strike out walk ratio. But so I shouldn't say
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: at all that's not good. But to twenty seven batting
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: average alloted five to seventy.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: Three oh ps. So that does worry me a little bit.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: The matchup numbers seem to go in the face of
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: the situation and whatever, and it almost does look kind
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: of too easy to play Seattle at minus one thirty seven,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: even though they struggled a little bit. I don't know, man,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: like the public doesn't seem to want Saint Louis, even
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: though Saint Louis has the better record in their home
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: underdog here, Seattle is clearly the better team with the
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: better pitcher. Here though sixty six percent of tickets sixty
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash on Seattle. I'm gonna lean
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: Seattle here, but I don't want to do it, man,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: So that's a stay away from me. The money might
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: slightly be indicating on them. Apple TV has two pretty
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: good National League games here. The last game, as we
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: get really late into this show here, last game is
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: Cubs Dodgers.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: This might be the best series of the weekend. Man.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: This is a powerhouse series between two offenses that are good,
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: two teams that are almost certainties to make the playoffs.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: I would say already, I mean, obviously the Dodgers are
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: one of them.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: These teams did both play yesterday.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers, I believe, were returning home from a road trip,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: but they only used one relief pitcher yesterday.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: The Cubs used five.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: Or exonisly four, So the Cubs had to go to
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: extra innings yesterday, So that's not good. But of course
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: I said the Dodgers are returning on from a road trip.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: They did go to Colorado, but then they were in
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, so going from San Francisco down to La
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: that's not a huge deal. And they didn't do well
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: on the road trip. They lost four of the games
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: on the road trip. They actually lost the road trip,
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. They went three and four on
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: the road trip. So the Dodgers might show up with
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: some focus here man and have some new momentum after
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: they finally escaped with a win. I told you they
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: would win the final against the Giants yesterday, and I liked,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: you know, generally, I kind of liked under in that game,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: and I think the under probably did pan out in
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: that game in the first It definitely did in the
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: full game, but first five, I think probably two. Chicago
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: is coming up that tough extra inning game. Uh, they're
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: on a huge win streak right now. They've won nine
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: or ten games in a row. They just swept Philadelphia.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: But for Chicago, they're having to travel out west, and
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't love that when a team from
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: you know, a Central or Eastern time zone goes out west.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: It can kind of mess with their biological clock a
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: little bit. They're coming off of an extra inning game,
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: so even though the Dodgers are returning on from a
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: road trip, I don't love how this sets up for
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: the Cubs here really for the situation. As far as
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: the bullpens, both bullpens have been fine generally, Cubs use
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit more, and they do. I think
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: the Cubs do have the better bullpen. Their era is
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: definitely better in the threes Dodgers in the fours. Dodgers
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: have had the slightly better bullpen whip and they are
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: the more arrested bullpens, So you know, it is, I
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: guess close, but I think the Cubs do have a
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: slightly better bullpen. Cubs have been hitting really well. They're
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: third now, but the Dodgers obviously their best offense in baseball.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: But again we have two very powerful offenses, which maybe
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: that means there might be some value going under in
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: this game because these offenses are just so prolific. The
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup isn't really terrible here, and these are not
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: household names. Jameson tie On his pitching for the Cubs.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: He's having a decent season again, I mean again, he's
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: a guy that just goes overlooked, but he usually goes
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: out there and pitches decent three point nine to seven ERA,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: one point.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: Two eight whip. Overall, his numbers are fine.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: Maybe too many walks twenty one to nine strike out
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: walk right show. Yeah, definitely is too many walks and
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: too high a fly ball rate six home runs a lot.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: That's kind of the issue with him. Too many fly balls,
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: too many home runs. But he's allowed fewer than one
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: hit per inning, and yeah, the walks are concerned as well.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: So but he is coming off of a decent start
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: against the Mets. All of the Mets have not been
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: hitting well, but he did still walk three guys there.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean, tye On overall, he's fine.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: We'll see what he does against the Dodgers here. His
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: numbers overall are not horrible against the Dodgers in seventy
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: nine at bats, seventeen strikeouts, eight walks, two sixty six
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: average eight forty ops is a little bit high, so
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: that doesn't make me worry a little bit. Tay Oscar
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: Hernandez and Otani have both hit him pretty well, and
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: Tucker as well, so those three guys have done some damage.
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: Emmett she And is pitching for the Dodgers. He's the
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: much younger guy. His numbers don't look good, but I
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: do think he's much better than his numbers would suggest.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: Five point eight five yr, one point four whip. He
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: showed some signs of being pretty good last year than
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: this year. Really, he hasn't been that bad. He's allowed
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: four or fewer earned runs in every outing. He's getting
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit better as the season goes on. Did
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: just have a decent outing in course field, which isn't
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: really necessarily that easy of a thing to do. Eighteen
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: to eight strike up walk ratio is a little bit
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: concerning too many walks exactly one hit a lout per inning,
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: a little bit few of the one strike up per inning,
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: but I'm willing to live with that, except the walks
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: need to go down a little bit. And he also
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: is kind of a fly ball pitcher, so he's allowed
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: four home runs already. Too many fly balls. Again, that's
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: kind of the concern with him as well. Going up
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs. The Cubs have basically not seen him.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: They've two hitters have ever faced him before. They're one
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: for seven and the only hit is a double from Bregman,
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: two strike ups, three walks against him. From these guys,
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: only Bregman and could four to have ever faced him before,
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: one forty three average, allowed six eighty six ops overall. Yeah,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: you know, I might go under in this one. And
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: we did just have a pitching change, by the way,
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: in one of the games we talked about so I'll
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: hit that.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: I guess you know you want to hit that.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: I'll do that up before I finish the or yeah,
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: before I finish the the show, before I go to NHL.
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: I should say. Anyway, I'm gonna lean under in this game.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: The total is pretty high. It's at nine. You know,
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: we're looking at decent bullpends here.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe you want to go first five innings just because
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: the Cubs bullpen isn't that rested, but you're getting that
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: key number nine in the full game. I know these
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: offenses are good, but I think these pitchers are a
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: little bit under the radar here. Their matchup numbers are
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: not horrible. Sixty three percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: ninety eight percent of the cash on the under. I
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: also agree with the Dodgers' side, but they're up to
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: minus one sixty three. Now, probably you'd have to go
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: a minus one run line or make your own on
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: that sixty one percent of tickets ninety five percent of
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. It looks like the money does
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: agree with the Dodgers, So do with that information what
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: you want. But I agree with the money in that
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: one slight lean for me to the Dodgers and to
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: the under. But I'm not gonna want to play the game.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: But you can definitely argue that Shean as the upper
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: hand there. Arrested Dodgers bullpen could get them through that game.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: The cub's coming off that extra inning game. Shean, you know,
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: has the unfamiliarity edge there and is better than people
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: think he is. So that's what I'm thinking about that game,
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: all right. And then, as I said, there's a pitching change,
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: because Washington looks like they're now going with PJ Poohlan Poola.
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know man, and I don't mean the
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: French translation of his name. I mean, what is Washington
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: doing here? Because it was gonna be Michelus. Does this
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: mean Micholas is gonna come in behind him? Is he
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: gonna be an opener? I don't know what we're doing here?
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: Uh Poolan, Yeah. I mean he's basically not gone more
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: than one inning in any start. So, like I said,
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: that's why you go action in a game like this.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: When I was saying it was because of the White
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: Sox part of things, Pooland hasn't even been that good
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: four point nine to seventy R one point five to
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: eight whip. My handicap on this game remains, I think
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: probably he's gonna give you one inning and then Mikolas
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: comes in behind him. I would still say over in
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: that game and do it action because you have no
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: idea what these what these teams are doing with an
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: opener and then with the questionable starter coming in behind them,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: So you know, that's how I would look at it.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: Miami at San Francisco is the ESPN Unlimited game, the
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: last game on the board. Sar Francisco is staying at
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: home coming off a big series where they beat the
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: Dodgers though, so maybe they could be in a letdown spot,
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: but they are staying at home, so the travel spot
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: is worse for Miami. Miami is having to come in
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: from Miami, but then again starting a road troup. A
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: lot of times the team will be focused. But I
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: don't love these East teams going all the way out
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: west for a late game because it messes with your
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: biological clock. I think that plus the day off from
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: Miami could mess with their hitting. Even though yes, Miami
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: is unrest here, they didn't play yesterday and San Francisco
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: I believe did right yeah against the Dodgers, so Miami
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: does have a rest advantage here. Sar Francisco does have
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: a pretty good bullpen. They only just hid well out
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen. Yes, their bullpen is pretty good and
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: it's rested. San Francisco has the eighth ranked bullpen. Miami
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: actually has the fifth ranked bullpen, although I think that's
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: in whip. I think San Francisco probably does actually have
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen though, but the bullmen pretty good. So
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: the bullpens I think are all right here, Miami has
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: actually hit well this year at ninth, although I don't
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: really trust their offense. But San Francisco's twenty eighth, so
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: I think obviously you got to give Miami an offensive
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: edge to some extent here, do you give them the
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: starting pitching edgeyear? Maybe Sandy o Contra is pitching for
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: the Marlins. He still has good overall numbers this year
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: three point ho six CRA, one point zero five WIT.
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: But people were talking about this guy maybe being a
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: cy young candidate. I would say not so fast man.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: His first three outings were at home against Colorado, the
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: White Sox at Cincinnati, and those we know, those are
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: not particularly good offenses, and some of them not particularly
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: good when they're on the road. Then he had to
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: face Detroit on the road. He got absolutely lit up
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: in that game. He faced Milwaukee in his last outing
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: and he walked six guys Milwaukee.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: That's really really bad.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I dude, Al Condrum, I'm not ready to
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: say that he's back, dude, unfortunately, because he was a
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: cy young level pitcher in the past, but he had injuries.
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: Tommy John whatever, He's getting a little bit up there
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: in age at thirty now he just hasn't been able
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: to bounce back.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: Dude.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: He showed some signs of it late last year. He
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: looked pretty good through three starts this year, but he's
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 2: in bad for him right now. I'm not ready to
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: trust him right now. Maybe they've overworked him too, because
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: he's been throwing a full starter's workload here, including a
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: complete game against the White Sox. He's got twenty three strikeouts,
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: which is way low for thirty five and a third
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: innings man. So he used to be a pretty intense
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher, and his strikeouts have gone down. That meets
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: his stuff is not as good and means his fastball
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: probably the taking off of it. Twelve walks that's not good,
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: although I know six of.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: Them were in one game.
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: Four home runs allowed in his last two starts, that
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: doesn't look good. Only twenty five hits allowed over his
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: entire season so far, though, so that's a good number.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm not sure he's totally trustworthy right now.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: He does get an easy lineup to face here San Francisco,
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: and he is doing it on the road in a
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park. They only have five hitters who faced
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: him twenty four at bats against him, seven to one
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 2: strike out walker, he shows good. Two ninety two average
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: is not that good though, six poin fifty three ohps
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: is fine. Only one extra base hit a double from Chapman.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: You know, overall, I don't know if I fully trust
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: all contrary here right now, though overall he is the
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: better pitcher I would say over Adrian Houser. Howser not
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: having a good season here. Five point four ERA, one
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: point five to seven whip. Houser did actually pitch decently
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: last year though, even though he moved around and a
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: couple of different teams got rid of him last year.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: This year, though, it's not going too well.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: From eleven to seven strikeout walk ratio on twenty seven
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: hits allout in twenty one to third innings, none of
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: these numbers are good.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: So I don't know.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think he's very trustworthy here going
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: up against who are we talking about?
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: The Marlins the Malins.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: He only has eleven at bats against them, or they
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: only have eleven against him. They only have five hitters
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: have faced him. This is including al Kantra, who obviously
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: is not going to be in the lineup now. That
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: everybody has the DH. I think the nationally didn't go
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: back to pitchers hitting right. I'm pretty sure they didn't
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: because they think go tany dhs two strikeouts, no walks,
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: two seventy three average will have five forty five ohps.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: So he does have a good history in a very
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 2: limited sample, though against these guys against Miami.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know what we want
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: to do with this game. This game, I can't figure out.
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: The money is sort of back in Miami after they
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: dropped for minus one thirty five to minus one, tow
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: eight fifty eight percent of tickets six one percent of
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: the cash on them.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: I could see the.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: Argument for it because San Francisco is coming up a
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: big series against the Dodgers, could be a hangover here.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: Miami has a day of rest here. You know, they
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: might have the better starting pitcher here. They do have
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: the better offense, and the bullpens are fairly comparable, so
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: that those you know, Miami checks more of the boxes
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: in this game, let's say.
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: But I don't think it's enough.
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: And the money is somewhat coming in on the over
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: as well, even though it's a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: Seven and a half. Pretty low total.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 2: Kind of indicates it should be more of a pitching
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: game here, and the bullpens should be game for it.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: But I don't know if the starters are going to
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: be up to the task. Seventy percent tickets, eighty three
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over, I don't want
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: to do anything with the game, so I give up
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: one MLB play today.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: Don't love the board hockey, I'm skipping.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: I'm being selective, man, even though I'm going full bore.
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: On the NBA today.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: But it's because I really like the NBA situational setups today.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: Don't really love it in hockey. The first game up
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: in hockey is Tampa Bay in Montreal. They split in
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: the first two games in Tampa and now they're having
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: to go to Montreal. Montreal has been pretty good at
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: home twenty four to fifteen to two, but Tampa Bay twenty.
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: Four to twelve and five on the road.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: That's not a bad road record at all, so Tampa
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: could certainly compete on the road here. Tampa has I
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: think been the better team in the series slightly.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: Both games were one goal games.
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 2: If you kind of dive into the box score, Tampa
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: was kind of the better team. They had more shots,
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: more face off wins. Montreal was the more physical team.
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: This is in Game two, the overtime game where we
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: pushed our bet because I put part of it on
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: the puck line. There was basically a minus one puck
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: line there. All these games are on T and T, TBS,
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: True TV, HBO Max, some combination of those. I have
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: no good feel for this game, man, I really don't.
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: I know, I have Tampa as my champion in my bracket,
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: but the money is coming in on Montreal. Tampa dropped
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: for minus thirty to minus one, seventeen seventy two percent
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: of tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on Montreal.
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: Here Montreal looks a little bit public though, but you know,
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: I mean the public. I don't know if they're really
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: gonna be playing hockey too much here. They might be
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: more focused on NBA playoffs, but I don't know, this
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: is playoffs. We'll see what the market does. I want
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: to see where this market moves. I mean, I don't know.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: I kind of like Tampa Bay a little bit because
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna win the series, and you know,
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: I think there they've been the slightly better team in
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 2: the series, but going up to Montreal not gonna be
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 2: that easy. But again, I think Tampa Bay has the
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: better goaltender and more experience, so they definitely have more experience.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: So I think that kind of wins out in these series.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: We will see.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: Maybe you could say the same for Vegas here at Utah,
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 2: but this money looks like it's all over Utah. Vegas
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: is getting the public action, seventy percent of tickets on them,
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of the cash on Utah, so the
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: money is supporting Utah, even though I have Vegas the
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: conference in my bracket, had to go with you know,
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: you know how I do it, man, I look at
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: who's picking whom, and then I go with the odds
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: where I think a team is being underpicked. Vegas had
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: the second best odds to win the West, so that's
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: what I did. You know, John Tortorella kind of gave
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: him a spark there. He's an experienced coach. Vegas I
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: think has the more experienced team, even though they're using
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: heart in that and he's not that experience. Utah just
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: they don't have that much playoff experience, man, Although the
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: money is heavily indicating on Utah here, so I just
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: I can't really disagree with Utah and this one based
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: on that market read. Unfortunately, Vegas did lose the second
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 2: game after the team split the two games in Vegas,
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: and Utah was actually the better team in that game.
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 2: Utah had more shots, face offfs were even Utah was
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: more physical in the game, So that might be a problem.
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: And it's gonna be in elevation here, even though it's
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: not a far travel spot. I don't know if Vegas
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 2: is gonna hold up in elevation. Vegas was also not
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 2: good on the road nineteen fourteen and eight.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: That's not good.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: Utah was decent at home twenty two, sixteen and three,
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: not dominant.
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: But pretty good.
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 2: Vegas's road record is more of the concern here that
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: they just weren't that good on the road. So yeah,
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: those are definitely concerns here, man, although you know Vegas
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 2: with heart and that heart hasn't exactly been that bad
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: though for them so far, so maybe they have found
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: their guy and they do have that stability there that's really.
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 1: What they need.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 2: I don't you know, I don't want any part of
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: any of these games, though, and the last game is
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: Edmonton and Anaheim. Anaheim somehow won in Edmonton in game two.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's gonna happen now, man. I
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: know Anaheim has been better at home than on the road,
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: and they're gonna be at home here. Kind of an
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar travel spot for Edmonton to have to go down there.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: But that was a big win for Anaheim. And they
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: were not the better team in this game. Looking at
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: the stats, Edmonton outshot them, Edmonton out hit them, fase
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 2: saw are very close. It was a close game throughout
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 2: the game, so I saw like one team was getting
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: desperate or anything. Well, I mean Edmonton was down two goals,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: so I guess. But look at what Anaheim did, man.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: They scored two hour play goals. They had a shorthanded
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 2: goal which was more of a fluke power plays, you know,
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: you get aided by the penalties, and then they scored
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 2: an empty net at the end. The game was four
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: to four tie late in the game, and then some
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 2: idiot in Edmonton threw a rotisserie chicken onto the ice
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: if you didn't see that, which I think was supposed
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 2: to be a duck, like, oh, let's beat the birds
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: or whatever. I have no idea, dude, no idea. Now,
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 2: if it was up to me, I'd be rooting for
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: Anaheim here because for rooting interests, I like.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: Chris Cryder. They still got him right. I have a
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: Crider jersey, which.
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: You guys might have seen. I've worn it on a
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: couple of shows, I think. But Cryder is a hometown guy, man,
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 2: He's from the Boston area.
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: My co worker, I had a coworker.
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: At my first company whose son went to high school
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 2: with them, and you know, they're like best friends or whatever.
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: They played hockey together actually, so there you go. We
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 2: have a lot of hockey ties in New England and
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 2: I just don't like Edmonton, dude, So I would love
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 2: to see them lose. But I really don't think it's
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: gonna happen in this game. I think I think Edmonton
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: is gonna bounce back here. But Anaheim is still good
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: at home twenty four to thirteen and four at home.
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: Edmonton was not good on the.
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 2: Road nineteen six and nineteen sixteen and six on the road,
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the home road splits do actually favor Anaheim
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 2: here a decent amount. So Anaheim does have that in
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 2: their back pocket, but they're the less experienced team. Edmonton's
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: been here and done this before, and in a tie game,
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: tight series like this, coming off a game where Edmonton
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 2: probably should have won, I'm gonna lean Edmonton there a
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty two.
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: I think this is probably the strongest out of the three. Here.
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 1: Anaheim has sixty one percent of.
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: The tickets, which shocks me that the public would want
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 2: Anaheim here makes no sense. Seventy six percent of the
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 2: actual cash on Edmonton.
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with that market.
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: And I don't really have a good gauge on the totals,
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 2: although these Edmonton Anaheim games have been insanely high totals.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, this total is at seven here. Usually don't
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 2: see that in hockey. So books had juiced the six
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: and a half at minus one fifty five, trying to
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 2: not go to the seven because it is kind of
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: a key number because you've got to break the tie
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 2: at some point it's playoffs. Well actually even when it's
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 2: not playoffs, you have to break a tie now. So yeah, whatever, anyway, Yeah,
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: I don't think I have much else to say about this,
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean these have been over games for sure.
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: I mean these teams don't have trustworthy goaltending in my opinion,
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 2: or defenses. The other two games are both reasonably priced
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: totals at six money, really hitting the under in that
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: Tampa Montreal game and actually in Vegas, Utah, and kind
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 2: of going over in Edmonton Anaheim. So do with that
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 2: information what you want. Not really a hockey totals guy
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: the all the way delved into it a little bit
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: last year and only played in very specific spots, and
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 2: I think I won more than I lost, but it
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 2: wasn't great.
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the NBA.
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: I like all three NBA games today, and we're gonna
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 2: have two plays in the NBA here, starting with the
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: first one up. This is just so obvious, dude, Celtics, Philadelphia.
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 2: All these games are on Amazon Prime. This is the
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 2: first best bet. This is like, yeah, I mean, this
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 2: is my most confident bet in quite a while. So
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 2: obviously you know this is gonna lose, but we're gonna
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 2: go with the Celtics minus seven here. This is just
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: such a typical spot for the Celtics, dude, it really is.
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 2: This is what I've been doing the last two or
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 2: three years in the Joe Missoula era. Just bet this
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 2: spot every fucking time. You're gonna win almost every one
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 2: of the bets. The Celtics. It's ridiculous how predictable they are.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 2: The Celtics in Game two, they tend to have a
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 2: huge letdown because this is what happens. The Celtics are
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: like always the better team. They're always a huge favorite
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: at home. They blow the opponent out in game one
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 2: and lucky for me, I usually go to Game one.
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 2: Not this year though, because I'm trying to save money.
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 2: Then is what happens. The Celtics get super complacent and
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 2: they just totally sleep.
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: Walk in Game two.
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 2: Think it's gonna be easy, overlook the opponent, and what
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: happens they lose. And that's what happened again here Philadelphia
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 2: beat them by fourteen points. Clearly, the Celtics are the
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: better team here. Clearly they just completely overlooked them. The
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 2: Celtics could have won that game. It was close. Late
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 2: in the game, it looked like the Celicers were gonna
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: come back and win the game. And then I don't
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 2: know what they did at the end of that game.
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 2: But what happens though, after that happens. Yeah, the Celtics
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: refocus after that, and they go in and they're always
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 2: like fuck that, and they just go in and just
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 2: annihilate that team and just stomp on their throat and
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 2: win the series. And that's what's happened with the Celtics
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 2: when they've been healthy and whatever. Of course, I mean
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 2: it didn't play out in the Knicks series last year,
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 2: but they lost Game one, so that threw off the
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: whole series, and Tatum got hurt obviously that's what really
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 2: threw off the series. Celtics should have won game one
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 2: and two in that series, but whatever. Anyway, Yeah, this
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: is just a typical spot. Philadelphia is still without embiid.
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: Celtics are obviously the better team than the deeper team.
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: They're coming off a bad performance. The Celtics are getting
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: a lot of the money here. You might have to
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: lay seven and a half on this. Seven is preferable.
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 2: And I found it right at minus one ten, dude,
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: I found it. I already bet this. I found it
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 2: at the book that starts with a Sea, I believe
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: was where I found this one, which actually I thought
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: they didn't even carry Celtic games because the Celtics have
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: ownership with them, Like I tried to bet the Celtics
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 2: when I was in.
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: Vegas at CEP. Oh God, CEP. That sounds really bad.
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: At the place of the of the Roman Emperor that
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 1: starts of the sea. You know what I'm talking about.
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 2: I think I can I I could say Caesar's Palace.
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 2: It's a Vegas casino, you know what I'm talking about.
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 2: But I tried to go there and bet on the
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 2: Celtics when I was there, and they didn't let They
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 2: didn't have it available because of the ownership conflict. I
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 2: don't know whatever. I tried to bet against the Celtics.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 2: Actually I ran to the Mirage, which took a half
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: hour just to get to the next casino over, just
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 2: to play as the bet. That wound up losing in
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 2: a close call. But at least the Celtics I think
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 2: won that game. It was a playoff game, but Celtics.
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 2: That was That was a long time ago. The Celtics
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 2: did not win the championship that year anyway. Yeah, seventy
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets ninety two percent of the cash
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: on the Celtics minus seven is preferable here because it's
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: the key number in basketball. Team stop intentionally following at seven.
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: I would try to find the seven. I'd probably still
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 2: lay it at seven and a half.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're looking at.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 2: The Celtics were like a fourteen point favorite in Game two.
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 2: I think like thirteen in Game one. Teams don't get
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: this much home court. I mean, you get a little
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: bit more in the playoffs. But I mean, come on,
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: you're gonna drop the number six seven points here. I
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 2: mean this has been the case, like it's been an
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 2: overreaction kind of in all of these games that have
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: swung to the other venue here. So yeah, we're gonna
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: go with the Celtics here, obviously. And if we look
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 2: at what happened in the game, the Celtics had a
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 2: very off shooting game as well. I think we're gonna
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 2: see some positive regression here. Celtics only were twenty six
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: percent from three point range. Dude, uh, Sixers were almost
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: fifty percent. So we're gonna see some regression here. Sixers
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: are probably gonna regress in the wrong direction. They're not
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 2: gonna shoot fifty percent from three again. Celtics are probably
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 2: not gonna miss that many threes again. I know they
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 2: live and die by the three, the Celtics do, but
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 2: that was an off performance from the Celtics dominated the
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: rebounds basically, they had fifty to forty two rebound rebound
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 2: edge there. Celtics got to the free throw line a
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 2: bit more too, So they're better in the paint. That's
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 2: a good indicator. They're the better team we all know
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 2: they are anyway. And the Celtics lost the turnover battle,
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 2: which that might not happen again here or either they
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 2: clean that shit up again. To finish my thought, the
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 2: Celtics in game twos in the Missoula era, the Celtics
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 2: are four and five straight up in game twos in
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 2: the Missoula era, and in all other games in the
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 2: playoffs they're like twenty and five straight up. So this
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: is a thing that happens over and over again, and
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 2: it's the zigzag. The Celtics are the ultimate zigzag team.
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 2: We're gonna do it again. Every time this shows up,
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 2: we do it, and we're doing it again. Like as
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 2: soon as the Celtics lost that game, I was like,
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 2: the good thing is we're gonna get a good play
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 2: on them in the next game here, so let's do it.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: Celtics lay the points and it's one that the you.
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: Know, the The square betters are not gonna hate that
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: play either, probably so maybe they will actually, because they're
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 2: so Recncy biased, maybe they'll they'll think that they don't
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 2: want to, you know, they'll not want to lay.
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 1: The points like that. I don't know. Total is dropping
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit, by the way.
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 2: Although the money's come in on the over seventy tickets
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of the cash on the over, the
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 2: totals down to two fifteen. I don't have a good
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: gauge on the total. The Celtics usually play half court
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 2: like slow basketball, though, even though they hit a ton
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 2: of threes, you know, they usually tend to play somewhat
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 2: lower scoring games. All right, Lakers Rockets, This is a
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 2: ridiculously low total at two point seven the Lakers based
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 2: on this number, with the Rockets being an eight and
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 2: a half point favorite, I think we're not gonna get
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 2: Luca here. We're not gonna get Reeves here. The Rockets
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 2: have to win this game, dude. I mean, this is
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 2: the one game that I'm not actually gonna give out
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 2: a play on. But the money is all over the Rockets,
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 2: and I.
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: Agree with that.
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 2: Sixty six percent of tickets on the Lakers eighty three
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Rockets.
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: The Rockets were like a.
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 2: Five point favorite if Durant is gonna play. We have
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 2: to see if Durant is gonna play. But the Rockets
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 2: were like a five to five and a half point
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 2: road favorite, and now they're only eight and a half
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: at home. That actually seems like value on the Rockets here.
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 2: It's just so difficult to actually want to lay points
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 2: with the Rockets here, du because they look so discombobulated,
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 2: like durant Is is their point guard because Van Vliet
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: has never come back, so Rockets are without a point guard.
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 1: Dude. I'm no longer gonna say that.
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: I'm mad that the Celtics got rid of Oudoka, the
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 2: Rockets coach here, because he had indiscretions that was sleeping
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 2: with somebody on the staff, some woman whatever. Missoula is
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 2: a great coach, dude, So I'm I'm past that at
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 2: this point. And Rockets look like they're just yeah, they
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 2: have some locker room issues, man, because I don't know
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 2: what's going on here, but I still like they should
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 2: win and cover this game. It's one of the situations
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 2: where a team is coming back home down two, and
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 2: the Raptors were in a spot like that yesterday and
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 2: they won outright against Cleveland.
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 1: I did lean too the Raptors yesterday.
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 2: I didn't really think they were gonna win in win,
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 2: you know, by margin like that, but they did. Uh,
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 2: this is a game where you're gonna need Houston to
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 2: win by margin, though, but there are some indicators that
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 2: they should. There's a reason why I gave you, guys,
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 2: Houston in game two, and that was because in the
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 2: first game, the Lakers shot sixty percent from the field,
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 2: they hit more than half of their threes. Houston couldn't
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 2: hit the broadside of a barn in the game. So
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 2: I was like, obviously there's gonna be some massive regression here.
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 2: And what happened. It didn't even happen. The Lakers did
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 2: it again in the second game. They hit almost half
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 2: of their threes. Again, Houston couldn't hit anything forty percent
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 2: from the field twenty four percent from three point range,
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 2: so they missed most of the threes. Just like the
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 2: first game, Houston won the rebound battle. Houston had way
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: more field goal attempts in the game again, by seventeen.
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 2: In that game and in the first game, it was
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 2: by twenty seven. Like you never see that in two
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 2: games in a row. You like, never see this where
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 2: a team dominates, uh, you know, the field goal.
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: Like possessions like that and they lose the game.
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 2: It makes no sense that the Lakers did go to
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 2: the line a lot in this game, so they did
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 2: have some helpful refing here, but Kannard hit a bunch
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 2: of his shots. Again, I just don't see it, dude,
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: I don't you know, Like I think there's actually line
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 2: value on Houston. You're given that they were five and
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 2: a half of the argue they shouldn't have been a
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 2: five and a half way favorite in this game, and
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 2: they were two and a half in game one because
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 2: Durant didn't play. But maybe now that Durant did play
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 2: and he's got a game under his belt, I believe
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 2: he's gonna play in this game. But though I think
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 2: he's a game time decision. Again, I don't know what's
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 2: going on with him, so that's something to keep an
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: eye on. I think he will play. I mean, this
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 2: is the fucking playoffs, so he's questionable. I think he's
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 2: gonna play, and I'm almost positive that these Lakers guys
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: are not coming back here. It looks like Luca's not
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 2: coming back in the series at all. That's crazy, dude, Houston.
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 2: They do not have an excuse for losing this series, dude,
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 2: if they're gonna be favored in every game and the
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 2: Lakers don't have Luca. I don't know if Reeves is
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 2: coming back in the series either. I don't believe he's
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 2: coming back in this game.
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 1: We can look.
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 2: I thought Luca was closer to coming back than Reeves.
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 2: Reeves is questionable, so it looks like he's actually closer
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 2: to coming back.
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: But yeah, still no really here.
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 2: And by the way, Houston is better at home thirty
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 2: and eleven at home, so they are definitely better at
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 2: home than on the road here. I like Houston. I
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 2: would lay it with Houston in this game, dude, That's
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 2: what I would do. You're getting a little bit of
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 2: a better number on this now. Probably nine is probably
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 2: the predominant number out there right now. I almost want
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 2: to do it. I feel pretty strongly about it. I
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 2: like all three of these games, dude, do we do
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 2: it one more time? I mean, oh my god, it's
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 2: like so obvious that both of those first games are
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 2: such Outliers.
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 1: Dude.
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 2: Oh I I kind of want to do it, but
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 2: there are just so many there are so many question
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 2: marks in this game. You know we'll stay off of it.
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: But man, yeah, I just don't like the slight question
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 2: marks here. But I like Houston in that game. That's
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 2: almost a play for me, and the last game is
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 2: going to be a play. Yeah, this one I feel
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 2: more confident about it. I feel very confident about the
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 2: Cell Celtics. This one I think is good as well.
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 2: I think we're getting a nice number on this. We're
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 2: gonna lay the points with the Spurs as well, minus
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: two and a half.
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 1: Maybe it looks too easy.
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 2: Sixty one percent ticket, seventy one percent of the cash
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 2: on the Spurs.
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 2: Of course, the line is kind of indicating that wembin
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 2: Yama might not be playing in this game. But you
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 2: know what I always talk about injured player theory. When
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 2: your star player goes down that first game without him,
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 2: a lot of times the team will be undervalued and
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 2: they're gonna show up and play really hard without him.
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 1: So I like that.
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 2: The Spurs played the Trailblazers three times during the REGU
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 2: season and won two of those games. And wembin Yama
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 2: didn't play in any of them. So the Spurs are
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 2: able to beat the Blazers without Wemba.
• 2:03:44
  Speaker 1: They've done it before.
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 2: The Spurs are the more like they're the better I
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 2: don't want to say they're more experienced, but they're better.
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 1: I think they have the better coach. I think they
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 1: have the deeper roster, and.
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 2: They're coming up an ugly loss at home and it
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 2: was because wem ben Yama got hurt, which I think
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 2: threw off the game. And if you guys didn't see it,
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 2: he's not even really injured, so I think there was
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 2: a chance he might play here. But the thing is
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 2: he if you didn't see it early in the game,
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 2: it was the second quarter, I think he fell onto
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 2: his face on the court and he got put in
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: concussion protocol, which means that you can't.
• 2:04:16
  Speaker 1: Play for forty eight hours.
• 2:04:19
  Speaker 2: And now he is going to surpass the forty eight
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 2: hours here because they're changing they're switching venues here to Portland,
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 2: so they've had two days off.
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 1: But he's gonna have to get.
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 2: Cleared by medical staff, so he might actually even play
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 2: in this game. And if that's the case, this line
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 2: is going up because Portland was an eleven and a
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 2: half San Antonio was an eleven and a half point favorite.
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 2: In this game, they were winning a decent chunk of
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 2: this game. They won the rebound battles still even without Wemba,
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 2: they lost the turnover battle, which you know, you can
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 2: clean shit like that up. And yeah, I mean the game, yeah,
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 2: wound up just being kind of close. But Portland also
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 2: was a minus eighteen from three point range, which you know,
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 2: so were the Celtics, I believe, so that should kind
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 2: of have positive regression there too.
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 1: The fact that Portland shot twenty nine percent.
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 2: From three, They're probably gonna improve on that number there,
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 2: So I think there is positive regression there. So that
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 2: was part of the reason why the Blazers were able
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 2: to win this game. But just in general, when you
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 2: have a team that was a double digit favorite, they're
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 2: clearly the better team, and then they lose that game,
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: you know you're gonna get like a big, focused effort
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 2: out of them in the next game. I think that's
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 2: what we're gonna get out of the Spurs here. The
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 2: Spurs are pretty good on the road, twenty nine to twelve,
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 2: actually better than the Blazers' home record.
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 1: Even though the Blazers were better at home than.
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 2: On the road, twenty four to seventeen is still not
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 2: really a dominant home record.
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 1: I like this.
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna do it, Spurs, And this is a
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 2: very cheap price, especially given that the Spurs were eleven
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 2: and a half in that game. Now you've shaved nine
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 2: points off of the line because Wemba might not play well.
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 2: That dead is big, of course, but probably is worth
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 2: like four points. But still, even if you take four
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 2: points off, there's like, where the where do the other
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 2: five and a half points come from? I think that's
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 2: still an overreaction to all of this, you know what
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 2: I mean. Blazers don't really have that much of a
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 2: home advantage. I don't think so. I still think it's
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 2: probably maybe two points at most in the NBA here,
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 2: even in the playoffs. And there's a chance that Wemba plays.
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 2: Like I said, so if you get this low number here,
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 2: that number is gonna go up. Let's just take a
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 2: look here. He's questionable, so he might play. But even
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 2: if he doesn't, like I said, I like, I like
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 2: the value in this number. It'll be the injured player
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 2: spot if he doesn't play, So we're playing the Spurs.
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Man.
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 2: I like all three favorites, And when when do I
• 2:06:46
  Speaker 2: ever say that? I like all three favorites in the
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 2: NBA today, and those will be our two plays.
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 1: On the road favorites. There you go.
• 2:06:52
  Speaker 2: I mean these are just I mean, these are just
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 2: mismatched series, dude. I mean, come on, and you're getting
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 2: teams that are both off double digit, ridiculous losses.
• 2:07:03
  Speaker 1: Let's do it.
• 2:07:03
  Speaker 2: Let's get some wins today, man, that's gonna do it. Finally,
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 2: the plays today are under first five innings in Pirates Brewers.
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 2: That's the only baseball play, you know. I know it
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 2: seems obvious with schemes on the mound, but I think
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 2: Woodruff gets over looked a little bit. So we're gonna
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: do that. Celtics minus seven, try to find the seven
• 2:07:25
  Speaker 2: if you can. I'd still probably lay the seven and
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 2: a half, but I just obviously I saw the seven,
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 2: so I'm like, I'm gonna just grab that, you know,
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 2: just it's the better you're you're on the right side
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 2: of the key number there. But I'd still probably do
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 2: it at seven and a half and Hopefully it just
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 2: happens and you don't have to worry about it. And
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 2: San Antonio minus two and a half. That's gonna do it.
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 2: Learn a tone on Twitter, Subscribe to me there you
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 2: can help me out. Learn a tone on Instagram. I
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 2: put out the short form videos there obviously, like subscribe here.
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 2: We got to boost these numbers. Man, I'm dude, My
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 2: he's in record is good.
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 1: Let's go.
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 2: Let's get some more fucking viewers here. I know I'm
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 2: very long winded. I'm gonna give you more detail though
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 2: for free. I'm giving on more free betting info than
• 2:08:10
  Speaker 2: anybody on the planet.
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 1: Let's go, baby.
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 2: We're on audio as well with this thing. Apple Spotify
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 2: can give me good reviews over the listening helps out
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 2: as well because there are ads. I know that sucks,
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 2: but you know, you gotta monetize. Patreon, dot comversation learn
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 2: its own don't really do much with it. I apologize.
• 2:08:28
  Speaker 2: I gotta get some updates going on there covering you
• 2:08:31
  Speaker 2: because my yuke channel on YouTube.
• 2:08:32
  Speaker 1: You can check that out.
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: Loser casts every Tuesday, the Giants g Spot podcast, which
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 2: we should have done like a live draft reaction show
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 2: last night.
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 1: But I don't know why that.
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 2: Went over my head, but we did do a draft
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 2: preview and it's me and Ben Weir and sometimes Adam Nutter,
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 2: so we'll be covering the Giants, even though I'm that's
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 2: not my team, but you know, I love Jackson Darrk.
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: He's my man.
• 2:08:59
  Speaker 2: So I'm on that show. You can check that out
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 2: and I will be on Are you Smarter than a Politician?
• 2:09:05
  Speaker 2: Is that what it's called tonight? I've barely watched the show.
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: It's some sort of game show. Dude, tell everybody and
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 2: show up and give me votes or whatever.
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 2: It's based on how the audience likes your answers, and
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to give some wild answers on that show.
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 2: You know me, I can't do the typical thing I
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 2: think that show is. Typically they bring on all these
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 2: autistic libertarians and it's like, you know, shoot, the government
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 2: restrict gun access, so you know my answer, Like, and
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 2: everybody's gonna say no, obviously, not everybody should be given
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 2: a gun by the government, And I'm gonna take a
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 2: different Like, if I get a question like that, I'm
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 2: gonna take a different approach.
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to think quick though on my feet,
• 2:09:48
  Speaker 2: but I'm gonna give some answers. I'm gonna try to
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 2: give answers that are not like that, answers that are.
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 1: Off the wall, you know what I mean, but still
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 1: what I believe. It's still correct. So check that out tonight.
• 2:10:00
  Speaker 2: I don't even know when that show is, eight PM,
• 2:10:02
  Speaker 2: maybe Eastern, I don't know.
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 1: Whenever it is, I'll be on it. That's going to
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 1: do it. I appreciate everybody. Peace,