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Episode 446 - 2/3/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  54321 All systems go with Josh Appelbaum starts now Hello and
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  welcome to episode 446 of the all systems go sports betting
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  podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host.
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  Josh. Appelbaum, what's going on
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  everyone? Happy Tuesday, another day here
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  in the arena guys. And now as we can continue the
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  countdown, we are only 5 days away from the Super Bowl
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  Patriots, Seahawks, biggest sporting event of the year,
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  biggest sporting event of any sport across the board.
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  I cannot wait to sweat this game with you guys and I'm still
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  again, my goal is to you know, give you updates throughout the
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  day or throughout the week. I.
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  Should say what has. Changed because you really want
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  to be laser focused on this line.
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  Of course, the spread and the total the.
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  The money line if you're. Interested in that but also
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  looking at juice and seeing which direction the wind is
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  blowing. So the only update I have for
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  you today, guys, is really that we don't have an update.
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  We're still sitting Seattle -4 1/2.
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  Now there are a couple shops -4 1/2 -, 115 towards Seattle.
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  One thing that I've noticed is, you know, some books are evening
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  out a bit -4 1/2 -, 110 And Seattle continues to be a huge
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  public play here, 65. Percent of spread bets at
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  DraftKings. But my angle here is, you've
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  heard me say it before, I'll beat the drum now and obviously
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  until until the kickoff on Sunday, or at least our last pot
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  on Friday is that I'm looking at the Patriots plus 4 1/2
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  contrarian opportunity. We've gone over this quite a
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  bit, only 31%. Of spread bets, but.
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  Actually 44%. Of spread dollars at Circa.
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  And again, Circa caters to. Sharper, better.
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  So that's. Exciting to me.
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  Also, you look at the fact that we have a lot of system matches
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  here. Playoff dogs who missed the
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  playoffs the previous season. 4 and one ATS this year. 70% ATS
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  since 2020 Super Bowl dogs 68% ATS since 2004.
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  Super Bowl dogs getting three or more 70. 3%.
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  ATS since 2004, so. Still looking at New England?
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  I am going to try to get greedy and see if we can get a 5, but
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  here's the thing, I want to get a. 5 because it's a better.
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  Price than a 4 1/2, but I also kind of don't want it to go to 5
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  because if it does go to five across the board, obviously that
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  would indicate more money coming in here on Seattle.
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  So maybe we can find an outlier book that's at 5:00.
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  If not, you know, 4 1/2 is available to us.
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  But as we're talking here on a Tuesday, 5 days away, really not
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  much has changed. I did kind of see a little bit
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  of under money continue to to roll here because you did open
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  46 and after 45 1/2 and you are looking at public play here, of
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  course, to the over because public wants to root for points
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  more than half the tickets. But yet the sign has fallen.
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  No real historical edge, though, I would say like, you know, you
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  look at these dogs over the last 20 years or so, they're covering
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  2/3 of the time last 20 years of the Super Bowl.
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  We're looking at Super Bowl over unders 5050.
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  So there's really no edge either way.
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  But again, respect to this line did dip a bit.
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  Now looking toward today guys, I want to talk more college
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  basketball because I got 3 college basketball plays for you
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  all three short money line favorites here and also want to
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  hit on a prop bet that I would call the.
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  Prop. Bet to.
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  Avoid because it's. One of the most popular.
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  Ones this is the prop bet usually that you know you're you
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  know your aunt or your uncle or your colleague or Co worker.
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  The person doesn't really know football or bet on sports.
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  They all get excited to bet. I'm going to tell you why you
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  should avoid it. But before you dive into today's
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  sweats for today guys, we got to bust out the brooms cuz we had a
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  nice three and O sweep last night 3 and O. +2. .41 units had
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  a nice start to the night with Alabama State money line.
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  Remember we had that. Really sharp move in favor of
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  Alabama State, who had the worst record yet we saw that line
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  continue to tick up in favor of Alabama State -2 all the way up
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  to 2 1/2, three, even 3 1/2. They're actually down by 6.
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  At half time and they. Outscored their.
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  Opponent Florida A&M. 50 to 30. One in the second-half, so it
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  was awesome to see. Alabama State just absolutely
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  put the pedal to the metal in the second-half, so that was a
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  nice hit. Nichols State We.
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  Had to sweat that one. I was feeling good about, you
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  know, that one going in because, you know, we were looking at
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  that line mostly minus ones. Pick a -1 lot of books got up to
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  1 1/2 or 2. Nichols State had a huge lead at
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  half. They coughed it up and they
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  barely hung on. Then up, winning by three
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  points. But there was a foul call late
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  which ended up covering the 1 1/2 or even if you got a 2 but.
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  If they don't, call that. You know that's one of those
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  games where again because the guy got foul with like .5
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  seconds left, he made both free throws.
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  If not, that would would have been a one point win and that's
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  what we always talk about, you know, money lining short.
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  Favorites because if. You win by 1, you want to win
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  your bet. But then late night this was
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  awesome to sweat. If you guys like me pay for ESPN
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  Plus, you can watch all these games, these tiny little games.
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  But Sacramento State, unbelievable.
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  They shot 61% from the field. They shot 63% from three.
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  It was a one O 4 to 90 game. Incredibly high scoring.
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  Obviously Sacramento State came through for us, which was great,
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  but that was an example of late movement and really just kind of
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  getting closing line value because Weber State in this
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  game. Open as one point.
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  Favorite at the time, right before you know, when I wrote
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  the article for recent.com, it flipped to -1 1/2 Sacramento
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  State. But then as I'm getting ready to
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  record the pod yesterday. It flipped.
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  Back to Weber State -1 -, 1 1/2 And then guess what, after the
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  pod, it flipped back towards Sacramento state -1 1/2.
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  So just the fact that that late move was in favor of us was
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  Sacramento State, just of course some validation there that that
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  late movement went our way. So Sacramento State, Nichols,
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  Alabama State, all three tiny little games, two of which were
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  added extra games, all came through for the team.
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  So bust out the broom, Little Fred Astaire dance.
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  And it's nice to see a little sweep there.
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  So we're going to see if we can continue today with three more
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  short money line plays. Now before we get into college
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  hoops, I just wanted to mention this because this is a bet.
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  That is very, very popular. If you follow my buddy John
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  Ewing, who is the top PR guy, data analyst for Bet MGM, he'll
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  always tweet out the most popular props, and one of the
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  most popular ones is the coin tosss.
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  So I think theoretically, just in a vacuum, the coin toss is a
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  fun, harmless little bet. It's the bet that again, your
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  grandma makes or. You know someone who?
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  Doesn't really know sports or bet on sports and they don't
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  really care about the outcome of the game.
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  But hey, I want a little action. I'll bet the coin toss.
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  And the reason why people like the.
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  Coin toss #1. Is it can only be one of two
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  things. So you feel like you have a 5050
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  shot. It's either going.
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  To be heads or tails, right? I actually had someone years ago
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  who reached out to me who said that technically it lands on
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  heads more because something about.
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  The weight of the tails. Is .001g more of aluminum or
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  whatever it is copper again, that kind of, I don't even know
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  if that's true. It's probably BS, but I just, I
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  remember saying that. It's funny I'd mention that and
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  Brent Musburger. Who again?
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  Is one of the founders of V sin and I'm a V sin analyst.
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  He gave me a shout out and he actually mentioned, oh, we have
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  an analyst this. Josh Applebaum was like my.
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  First year of V sin who who did all this research and the weight
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  of the coins. I was like Oh my God.
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  And I end up being wrong. I think I highlighted that it
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  should have been had and it was tails, so I kind of felt like an
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  idiot. But just goes to show you that
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  the the coin. Toss is a very popular harmless
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  bet with the public right. Again, it can only be heads or
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  tails. The other angle is.
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  Hey, you're going to pay it out very, very quickly.
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  So there's an appeal here of let's bet the coin toss.
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  You know, tails never fails. Or bet.
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  Heads, you get it, right? You get your money before the
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  game even. Starts so.
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  You can then sit back and say wow, we haven't even had a
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  single snap and I already got a winner there and I got couple
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  coins in my pocket. Here's why I'm going to tell
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  you. To avoid the coin toss with one
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  specific stipulation. Now this gets a little wonky,
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  but I think it's just important because it illustrates the value
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  of trying to find an edge, and if you can't find an edge, you
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  should lay off. So if I were to ask you heads or
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  tails, what are the 2? Options, of course.
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  Heads or tails? One of two. 50% right?
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  What is 50? Percent in terms of the odds in
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  terms. Of the odds 50.
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  Percent is plus 100 + 100 -, 100 either one.
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  That equates to a 50% implied probability.
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  Now, if you ever want to compare, you can plug in the
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  odds and will give you the implied probability one that I
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  really like. It's called Ace Odds Converter.
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  You can just, you know, search it and it's just a really good.
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  Bookmark you can go. Right there I think it's
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  aceodds.com/bet calculator, but you put in the odds.
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  And it'll it'll tell you what the implied probability is.
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  So the angle here is that if you.
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  Put in plus 100, the implied probability is exactly 50%.
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  So is that an edge? No, but it's a fair price on the
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  outcome of a coin flip, which is again either one, one of two
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  things. Here's why I think.
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  You should avoid the coin toss. The odds makers don't charge
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  plus 100 for the coin toss. I was noticing a bet MGM it's
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  minus one O 2. So if we plug in -1 O 2.
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  To the Ace. Odds converter that is an
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  implied. Probability of 50. .5% You can
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  even round it up to 51%. That means that if you are.
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  Playing the coin toss. Betting heads or tails at -1 O2
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  odds minus one O2 heads tails. They're usually the same thing.
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  You are paying for something that happens nearly 51% of the
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  time when it only happens 50% of the time.
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  So that's the whole point of, you know, not betting into a bad
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  number, not playing into the sports books hands because
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  basically you are paying for something that happens less
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  often than it actually does. Or you can flip the other way
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  and you know, at the price of the odds you would think happens
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  more often but actually doesn't. Then you look around and I've
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  seen some other books do minus one O 5 on both sides.
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  Minus one O 5 is an implied probability.
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  Boom, put that into the a sods converter of 51.2%.
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  So again, you are paying basically a more expensive price
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  for something that. Happens.
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  Should happen at a higher rate, but happens at a less higher or
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  a lower rate I guess you could say based on the price you are
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  paying. So the.
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  Long story short is. The math doesn't add up.
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  Now if you know this, if you know, hey, I'm paying minus one
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  O 2 -, 1 O 5, it's not a great. Value play.
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  In fact, it's. You know, minus EV, minus
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  expected value and you want to play it anyway and put 5 bucks
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  on it. All the power to you.
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  You have the, you have the. Power and freedom to do whatever
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  you want, you want to play it. Go for it, I hope.
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  That you win, but just know going into it you are paying a
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  more expensive price than you should.
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  Like if a pair of. You know, air.
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  Jordans cost 100 bucks. You're paying, you know, 110.
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  If you're OK with that, Hey, as long as you know, that's the
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  whole point. With that being said, if you do
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  want to bet the coin toss, you really want to shop around.
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  You want to find a book that ideally is giving you plus 100
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  odds. Again, not many will.
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  You might find an outlier there. But the whole point of this
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  exercise isn't for me to be this like, you know, geeky wonk who's
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  like, don't bet the coin toss. The whole point is just to get
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  people thinking about prices and whether or not they offer value.
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  So with the coin toss. If you're betting heads or tails
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  at -1 O 2 -, 1 O 3 - 1 O five, you are paying a more expensive
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  price than you should, which to me means layoff.
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  Don't do it. But again.
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  It's a super. Bowl, you're having drinks.
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  You know the drinks are flowing, you got the the food and the
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  nachos and you're having a good time and you want to do it.
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  Hey, I hope that you win, but today's lesson is just again,
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  comparing prices to probabilities and saying to
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  yourself, hey, this is not a good price, it's not a good
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  value. Therefore I'm going to lay off.
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  So that's your PSAI say don't bet the coin toss.
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  I should say don't bet the coin toss and then in in fine print
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  with an Asterix unless you can get a + 100.
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  I guess that's that's what I was aiming for.
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  But anyway, the more you know I. Guess is at least.
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  You know what you're getting into.
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  Well, that being said, I want to get right back to college
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  basketball because any time you coming off a you know, a three
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  and O sweep, you know you're feeling good and you want to get
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  right back to it. So that's exactly what we are
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  going to do. So all three games tonight are
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  late games 8:00 or later, and I want to start off with the first
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  late game on the board for me, a match up at 8:00 Eastern Time
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  between Indiana State and Evansville.
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  Now let's set the stage. Talk splits, talk system matches
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  and I'll give him my play for this one.
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  So Indiana State comes in nine and 14 on the year.
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  Remember Indiana State where? The great Larry Bird played.
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  They have lost, however, five in a row and just came up short
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  against Valpo 76 to 72 and overtime losing outright as a 2
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  1/2 point home favorite. Meanwhile, Evansville 5 and 17
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  on the year, even worse record, they've lost four straight.
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  Just lost to Northern Iowa 71 to 55.
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  Did not cover as an 11 1/2 point Rd. dog.
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  So what we seen across the market here, this game open with
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  Indiana State listed as a one point Rd. favorite.
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  Very, very short number here again, it's kind of like a pick
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  em, you know, you open with such a short number or the oddsmaker.
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  Say, do they say hey? It should be a pick em so they
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  play the dog do. They say hey, that.
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  Favorite should be -2 -, 3 so they.
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  Late with a favorite. I'm always interested pick EM or
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  A1. Either way, where does it move
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  from there? Well, looks pretty clear that
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  pros have jumped on the sycamores, the Indiana State
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  sycamores. Because Indiana State has gone
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  from -1 up to -1 1/2 and now you're seeing quite a few shops
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  at -2 and I even see one shop at -2 1/2.
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  So it's very clear that all movement liability has been 1
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  sided in favor of Indiana State. Now this is a pretty low bet
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  game and if you look. At the bet splits they.
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  Scream Indiana State at DraftKings 75% of spread bets,
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  but over 80% of spread dollars are going with Indiana State.
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  So heavy split but. Because it's a low bet game.
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  It's not an added extra game, it's just a low bet regular
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  game. Because again, who woke up on
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  the Tuesday before the Super Bowl and said I got to bet
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  Indiana State, Evansville. But that being said, even though
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  it's 75% tickets and more money, it's probably more likely coming
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  from sharps who have targeted the game, who care about this
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  little match up than the public who's largely overlooking it.
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  Now, our buddy Ken Palm has Indiana State only winning by
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  172 to 71. He does, however, have the
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  Sycamores ranked higher, 210 in the country versus 287 for
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  Evansville. But because Ken Palm's got a 1
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  and I want to make sure that we can cash a ticket by winning by
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  1. Which again got.
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  Very close in that Nichols game. If not for that, you know, foul
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  call. Late, but this is a money line
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  play for me. So I got Indiana State money
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  line at -132 at Bally bet. Looks like your best price now
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  is -140 at FanDuel, but shop around because a bunch of other
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  books are as high as -145 even -150.
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  Now the splits on the money line look pretty good. 79% of money
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  line bets 93% of money line dollars.
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  So good low bets, higher dollar heavy split there one way in
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  favor of the Sycamores winning the game straight up.
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  Bunch of. Stat advantages for Indiana
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  State Better offensive efficiency, 200 and 38th in the
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  country versus 300, and 19th. For Evansville, better defensive
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  efficiency, 175th versus 220. 3rd better effective field goal.
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  Percentage 143rd versus 300 and 1st.
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  And they limit their opponents to a better effective field goal
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  percentage to make it harder for them on defense. 111th versus
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  278th. Lastly, Evansville.
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  Only three and seven at home this year.
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  That is the worst home record in the Missouri Valley Conference.
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  So open Indiana State -1 but it's all been one way movement
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  in favor of the Sycamores. Lastly, I did pop open Juice
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  Reel and notice a 42%. Pretty big 42.
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  Percent sharp mush edge in favor of Indiana State.
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  So wise guys and wise gals like you out there listening who have
• 16:13
  downloaded Juice Reel and synced up your sports books.
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  Also going with the Sycamores. So first play of the night for
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  me, 8:00, Let's go Indiana State on the money line.
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  Next one up, let's talk NC State and SMU, one of the more heavily
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  backed games of the night, 9:00 PM Eastern Time.
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  It's a couple good teams going at it as well.
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  NC State 16 and six on the year. They've won four in a row, just
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  crushed Wake Forest 96 to 78. Easily covered as a. 5 1/2 point
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  Rd. favorite. On the other hand, SMU 15 and 6
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  they just saw their two game win streak however come to an end.
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  They lost to Louisville 88 to 74 did not cover as a 9 1/2 point
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  Rd. dog. So what are you sitting across
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  the market here? Well, this game open with NC
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  State listed as a one or 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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  So another short opening number here and the public.
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  Says OK. Both.
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  Teams are really good. Good.
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  Records NC State 16 and six SMU 15 and 6.
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  Maybe NC State is a smidge better, but SMU is also a dog at
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  home getting points. So let's take SMU.
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  That's what the public saying. So right now you are getting
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  across the market nearly 60% of spread bets taking that SMU home
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  dog. However, even though SMU is
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  getting majority tickets, this line has shown.
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  Liability toward the NC State. Side now NC State open -1 -, 1
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  1/2 This line got up to NC State -2 1/2 earlier today.
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  It has since come back down to -1 -, 1 1/2.
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  But the important thing for me is it's never gotten down to a
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  pick. It's never hopped the fence and
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  went to SMU -1 even though SMU is getting a majority of.
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  Tickets. So I would classify this as a
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  fade. The trendy dog play again line
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  is either stayed the same or showing liability and risen
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  toward NC State. NC State is a money line play
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  for me. I got kind of a bad number here
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  because I money line them when they're around -2 1/2 before
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  they fell down to -1 -, 1 1/2. So I got -135 with NC State, you
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  can get as low as -115 -, 120 now if you want to ride the Wolf
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  Pack with me. I don't like that it's falling
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  down, but at least it's kind of only gotten down to the back
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  where it was at the open. But I still like that.
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  NC State is the contrarian side. Like even though the line has
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  come back down toward SMU, you're still in a fade, the
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  trendy dog spot. Because NC State is still the
• 18:29
  chalk contrarian favorite. You know, the fade, the trendy
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  dog play. A couple things to bank on here.
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  NC State, the better offensive efficiency, 19th in the country
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  versus 21st for SMU. So a little bit better, but
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  they're both relatively equal, their offensive efficiency.
• 18:44
  But there is a big edge. Defensive efficiency because
• 18:48
  defensive efficiency. 39th for NC State, 74th for SMU, Better
• 18:54
  effective field goal percentage, 17th for NC State, 38th for SMU,
• 18:59
  and big one here. 3 point shooting.
• 19:01
  NC State is 7th best in in free throw shooting versus 55th for
• 19:06
  SMU. Wolfpack also do a better job of
• 19:09
  not turning it over on offense. They ranked 13th versus 127th
• 19:13
  for SMU. They turn it over quite a bit
• 19:15
  more and then also they turn their opponents more on defense.
• 19:18
  51st versus 122nd NC State, by the way, good Rd. team.
• 19:23
  They are five and one on the road.
• 19:25
  That's the third best Rd. record in the ACC so.
• 19:29
  It it ticked up to. 2 1/2 earlier today, NC State and has
• 19:32
  since gone back down to -1 -. 1 1/2.
• 19:35
  Maybe there was some +2 and half with SMU that came through, but
• 19:38
  this still remains A fade. The trendy dog money line play
• 19:41
  for me, so I'm going NC State money line again.
• 19:45
  I got a bad -135 you can get as low as -115 - 120, but we do
• 19:50
  have a 9%. Not quite as big as your Indiana
• 19:54
  State 42% but a 9% sharp mush edge in favor of NC State at
• 19:59
  juice rail. So some sharper betters also
• 20:02
  going NC State, so I'm on NC State.
• 20:03
  Wolfpack. Let's go, Wolfpack.
• 20:06
  On the money line, last bit of the night.
• 20:08
  Got to stay up late, yeah. Put on.
• 20:10
  Put on a pot of. Coffee because we got Fresno
• 20:12
  State and UNLV late night out West now 11:00 PM tip you have
• 20:18
  UNLV coming in 10 and 11 on the year.
• 20:20
  They've dropped three straight, just fell to Nevada 89 to 76,
• 20:24
  did not cover as an 8 point Rd. dog.
• 20:26
  Meanwhile, Fresno also 10 and 11 on the year.
• 20:29
  They just snapped A2 game losing skid with a 79 to 62 win over
• 20:33
  Air Force. Easily covered as a 9 1/2 point
• 20:36
  Rd. favorite. So what are you seeing across
• 20:38
  the market here? This game opened as low as a
• 20:40
  pick or just Fresno State -1 so basically a coin flip game,
• 20:45
  maybe slightly Fresno State -1 and the public.
• 20:48
  Doesn't know what to do. Both teams are 10 and 11.
• 20:50
  Both teams have kind of struggled here as of late.
• 20:53
  So the public is 5050. At DraftKings, don't know
• 20:56
  whether to take the point with UNLV or lay the point with
• 20:59
  Fresno State. What do we always talk about
• 21:01
  though? However, when it comes to a 5050
• 21:03
  ticket split, we always say, hey, you know, 5050.
• 21:06
  A line theoretically in a vacuum should not move at all.
• 21:09
  Odds makers have balanced action.
• 21:10
  No need to bring the number up or down.
• 21:13
  However, 5050 and you see a line move.
• 21:15
  That's important to me because that tells me that even though
• 21:18
  the public doesn't know what to do, sharp betters have taken a
• 21:20
  position 'cause that line move. Despite the 5050 ticket.
• 21:23
  Split It looks like they've leaned toward Fresno State.
• 21:26
  Because Fresno State. Opened at a pick or -1 and now
• 21:30
  they're up to -1 1/2 and a couple shops are juiced and I
• 21:33
  think one shop even touched 2 earlier today.
• 21:36
  Now Ken Palm has Fresno winning by three.
• 21:38
  So you might say, hey, lay the one 1 1/2.
• 21:41
  Now at this point that just makes me more excited to go
• 21:43
  money line because there's more cushion.
• 21:45
  So I got a money line play here on Fresno State at -115 some
• 21:50
  shops are now like -120 as high as -125 So as always shop
• 21:54
  around, try to find the best number.
• 21:56
  But I really like the money line split on Fresno State. 64% of
• 22:00
  money line bets, 85% of money line dollars.
• 22:04
  So it tells me the bigger sharper wagers to win the game
• 22:06
  straight up are also on Fresno State.
• 22:09
  Now Fresno State has the better defense.
• 22:10
  They only give up 70 points per game versus nearly 80 points a
• 22:14
  game given up by by UNLV. The Bulldogs have the better
• 22:20
  defensive efficiency, 69th in the country versus 166th for for
• 22:26
  UNLV. They hold their opponents.
• 22:28
  To a better effective field goal percentage, 126th versus 237th.
• 22:32
  They turn their opponents over more often, 43rd versus 99th and
• 22:36
  they have the better free throw shooting kind of a big advantage
• 22:38
  here, which could be big in a tight game. 63rd in the country
• 22:42
  versus 230 second, also kind of crazy here, but if you look at
• 22:47
  Mountain West play, home favorites in Mountain West play,
• 22:51
  you're not going to believe me because it's so lopsided.
• 22:53
  But I did. You know, I did the research and
• 22:54
  it's true straight up on the money line.
• 22:57
  Mountain West home favorites 25 and two in conference play, 93%.
• 23:03
  So it just tells you in conference play in the Mountain
• 23:05
  West, when two teams in the same Mountain West Conference play
• 23:09
  each other, the home favorite wins 93% of the time.
• 23:12
  So hopefully that's a good omen for us on Fresno.
• 23:15
  Lastly, a 25% sharp mush edge on Fresno State.
• 23:19
  So the sharper players who have again downloaded and and bet and
• 23:24
  synced up their apps at Juice Reel also going Fresno SO3 money
• 23:28
  line plays get here guys, varying prices based on if you
• 23:31
  bet it earlier in the day or right now.
• 23:33
  But Indiana State, NC State, Fresno State, So we can get two
• 23:36
  out of three and and turn turn a sweep last night into hopefully
• 23:40
  a 2 day winning streak. So that about does it guys.
• 23:43
  Episode 446 of the All Systems Go Sports.
• 23:46
  Betting pod is now wrapped. We're going to talk a few final
• 23:50
  thoughts. Because I.
• 23:51
  Always like to finish up the pod by you know, you hear me say all
• 23:53
  these things every single day, but the goal is to just give you
• 23:56
  resources when the pods over things to think about, you know,
• 23:58
  links and and different. Pieces of advice to take.
• 24:01
  Advantage of hopefully, but I always want to start first by
• 24:04
  saying thank you. Thank you for listening, Thank
• 24:06
  you for tuning in, Thank you for taking the time out of your day,
• 24:08
  out of your busy lives. I know we got a lot going on,
• 24:11
  but you devote 2025 minutes. Listen to the.
• 24:13
  ASG pod each day. Means a lot to me.
• 24:15
  So First off, thank you for that.
• 24:17
  If you do enjoy the pod, you want to help me grow the pod
• 24:20
  please could you give it a five star review on Spotify or
• 24:23
  iTunes? The rate and review button is
• 24:25
  pretty easy to to just tap boom, give it five stars.
• 24:29
  Just had our 345th 5 star review that came in last night so.
• 24:33
  Whoever you are out there. I appreciate you.
• 24:34
  Thank you very much. You can also click the follow
• 24:37
  button. That way you get alerted as soon
• 24:39
  as the. Pod gets released each day.
• 24:40
  You can also recommend the pod to a friend and you can also
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  retweet the pod from Twitter. Every time I put it out late
• 24:47
  afternoon. So if you want to do one or all
• 24:50
  those things, I just want to say thank you.
• 24:51
  I appreciate it. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 24:54
  betting breakdown data-driven sharp contrarian betting
• 24:57
  focusing on line movement, bet split system matches, taking a
• 25:00
  contrarian approach. If you want to learn more about
• 25:02
  data-driven betting or you have someone in your life who could
• 25:04
  use some data-driven tips, then you know what?
• 25:07
  I would love for. You to go to Amazon.com and type
• 25:10
  in the everything Guide to Sports Betting or the NFL Sharp
• 25:13
  Betting Playbook. Those are my two books that I've
• 25:15
  written. Very proud of both.
• 25:17
  The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook is the newest book and I'm also
• 25:20
  thinking about my next one. I'm thinking about writing a
• 25:21
  book on baseball. So who who knows, maybe you'll
• 25:24
  see it out a few years from now. But either way, if you want to
• 25:27
  pick up one or both of my books, give it a five star view on
• 25:30
  Amazon, bring them to the sports book.
• 25:32
  I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer.
• 25:33
  And for those of you who have already bought a copy, I
• 25:36
  appreciate you. Thank you very much.
• 25:38
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
• 25:41
  My two favorite sports betting apps.
• 25:42
  They help me win. They're going to help you win
• 25:45
  Rhythm great for their AI backed models and predictions for game
• 25:47
  bets and player props. We have a rhythm rundown coming
• 25:50
  up Thursday night, which will be our special Super Bowl edition.
• 25:52
  And then also Juice Reel. So many great features of Juice
• 25:55
  Reel. Number one, you can sport the
• 25:58
  pod and get the all systems go best bet picks as soon as I bet
• 26:01
  them you'll get them exclusively from the Juice Reel app.
• 26:04
  It cost you $4.99 a week, 5 bucks.
• 26:07
  Yeah, a cup of coffee. But maybe even, you know, less
• 26:10
  than that. If you're like my wife and you
• 26:11
  like the Starbucks coffee, the venti mocha double shot.
• 26:16
  I just, I just go to dunks and I say yeah, can I get a medium
• 26:19
  French vanilla iced coffee, skim milk and two Splenda?
• 26:22
  Boom, you're done. But and also the rewards.
• 26:24
  You got to have rewards because you get a free free doughnut,
• 26:27
  free coffee every now and again. But anyway, if you want to.
• 26:32
  Follow those plays for five. Bucks a week, you'll get them
• 26:34
  every single day and I. Consider it a tip.
• 26:35
  Jar you like. The pod, the pods free.
• 26:38
  Show your support by getting those ASG picks which you can
• 26:41
  get always with the the link inside the bio description of
• 26:44
  the podcast. You also get the Robo Jackson
• 26:47
  best bet picks the. Sharp mush indicators, the
• 26:49
  arbitrage plays the shop for the best line features all available
• 26:52
  when you download Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
• 26:55
  Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 26:58
  Next you have a live odds page. Well, if you don't, you need
• 27:01
  one. It's super important.
• 27:02
  You got to be able to track the market in real time.
• 27:05
  Figure out the lines. When they move, they get lit up
• 27:07
  in red. Of course, compare the opening
• 27:09
  number to the current price. See which direction the line is
• 27:12
  move, pull up the line history. You can do it all and of course
• 27:15
  get the best price by signing up for a odds Logic membership.
• 27:20
  And if you go to the special link, oddslogic.com/josh 123,
• 27:25
  you're going to get a 7 day free trial.
• 27:26
  Make sure you like it. And if you let it renew, you're
• 27:29
  going to get 50% off the first month.
• 27:31
  Again, that's oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 27:35
  Then lastly, Novig. Novig is a sports betting
• 27:38
  exchange, not a sports book, so you're going to get better juice
• 27:40
  prices. So you're talking about the coin
• 27:42
  flip. You know, if you're getting plus
• 27:44
  100, OK, you know, let it RIP if you want, but minus one O 5 - 1
• 27:47
  O 2 not worth it. Well, guess what?
• 27:50
  When you are at Novig, you're getting minus one O 2 - 1 O 5 +
• 27:54
  1 O3. You're not laying -115 -, 120.
• 27:57
  Why? Because you're in an exchange
• 27:58
  against other betters. You're not betting against the
• 28:00
  house who forces you to pay that -115 -, 120.
• 28:03
  So if you want to get. Better juice prices.
• 28:06
  Which will make your make it easier for you to turn a profit,
• 28:09
  and if you're already turning a profit, make more of a profit.
• 28:11
  Which is always great, just. Download the Novig app NOVIG and
• 28:16
  when you fund your account, put in Josh 123 and the promo code.
• 28:20
  It'll tack on an extra 25 bucks for you.
• 28:22
  So how about does it guys? Tuesday's pod here in the books
• 28:25
  again 5. Days away from the big game As
• 28:28
  always, I'm leaving you two final thoughts one, whether I.
• 28:30
  See you at the Borgata. In Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 28:33
  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 28:35
  Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
• 28:37
  Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park casino MGM Springfield, the
• 28:40
  Nash. In my neck of the woods on the
• 28:42
  border of Massachusetts and Nashville, New Hampshire.
• 28:45
  Out in the desert where the true grinders get down or Billy
• 28:47
  Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice possible
• 28:50
  is found, the South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian
• 28:52
  plays. Jumping in the stadium swimming
• 28:54
  pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 28:56
  Circa, you're going to walk up to me in the book and we're
• 28:59
  going to knock on the janitor's closet and say, hey, can we
• 29:02
  borrow your broom? Boom, bust out the broom.
• 29:04
  Little Fred Astaire dance show me a Sacramento state ticket, a
• 29:08
  Nichols state ticket, an Alabama State ticket.
• 29:11
  Guess what first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 29:13
  We'll invest it back into into tonight and fingers crossed
• 29:17
  hopefully have another winning night.
• 29:18
  So as always, guys coming off a three and O or an O and 3A2 and
• 29:21
  one or A1 and 2A winning night, a losing night, a hot.
• 29:24
  Streak a cold streak. Whether up or down, that's life
• 29:28
  sometimes. You have good days.
• 29:29
  Sometimes you have bad days, sometimes you just have break
• 29:31
  even days, but the goal here is to never get too high or too
• 29:34
  low. When you're down, you know
• 29:36
  losing. Don't get down on yourself,
• 29:38
  don't get depressed. It's human nature to be annoyed.
• 29:40
  I certainly get annoyed when I have losing nights.
• 29:43
  But also don't get too high. Don't get cocky and arrogant
• 29:46
  when things are going great, celebrate your wins because if
• 29:48
  you don't, no one else will. But again, remember that you're
• 29:51
  never as good as you think when you're hot.
• 29:53
  You're never as bad as you think when you're cold.
• 29:54
  We just got to stick to the model and find those system
• 29:57
  matches games that are against the.
• 29:59
  Public with, the House with. The pros Flat bet avoid parlays
• 30:02
  and get that CLV if we can do that.
• 30:04
  We're going to be successful. Sports bettors, so have a great
• 30:07
  Tuesday night, everybody. Good luck on the hard court
• 30:10
  here. Let's get a couple winners.
• 30:11
  Try to go 2:00 and 1:00 and we right back at it tomorrow for a
• 30:14
  hump day edition. That'll be episode 447 of the
• 30:18
  All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 30:22
  Good luck everybody and have a great Tuesday night.