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Kentucky Derby Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Oh I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Action Network. This weekend, first Saturday in May, a tradition
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: that has gone on for one hundred and fifty years,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: this is the one hundred and fiftieth running of the
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, the Greatest two minutes in Sports on NBC.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I think it'll happen at six fifty seven pm after
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: eight hours of pregaming. To celebrate this gambling right of spring,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: we are going to be joined by Action Network horse
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: racing and baseball expert Sean Zarillo to discuss all his
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: wagers in the Run for the Roses, his favorite contenders, longshot,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: how he'll be building his exotics. This guy is honestly,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: I know for a fact.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: This guy is.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: My co host, my companion, mikem padre my BFF professional better,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter's favorite off season guest, and osry Man.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: I love Sean.
• 1:21
  Speaker 4: All he does is win us money. So as much
• 1:23
  Speaker 4: as I'm gonna miss just Bullshit and Johnny Manzel, it's
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: a nice replacement having Sean in here today.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Sean is replacing Johnny Manziel in our guest spot this week.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: He's also the host of Action Networks Baseball betting podcast
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Payoff Pitch. For anybody looking at bet on Baseball, be
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: sure to check that out as well. Simon's right, Zarillo
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: makes us money every year on baseball. It will be
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: the last week of the season, and whoever Sean said
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: is going to be leading the league in strike ads
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: or leading the league in home runs who you had
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: not considered, will in fact be in that position.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: So listen up, folks.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by bet
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• 2:50
  Speaker 2: All right, mister Zurilla, great to see your brother. I'm
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: so glad you're here.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby. Exciting two minutes in sports for people who
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: only think about the Derby over the next forty eight hours,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: and we'll forget everything they know about the Derby for
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the next three hundred and sixty two days. Remind people
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: what makes betting the Derby unique. There are a variety
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: of factors that make this different than every other horse race.
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: Well, you called it the fastest too, or the most
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: exciting two minute in sports. Our co host on the
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: Action Network podcast yesterday, Brettan Gleshen, accidentally called it the
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: fastest two minutes in sports. But I don't think that's
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: wrong because in the first fifteen seconds, in the first
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: ten seconds at the break, five horses three horses whoever
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: real chance to win this race are probably going to
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: be ellimited just by breaking bat off the break and
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: being in a twenty horse field, one's not going to
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: break at all. The gat'll open wal to stand there,
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: one is going to get bumped, one will probably stumble,
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: and a few others will crash into each other. And
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: a horse like Fierceness, who will talk about a lot
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: who needs the lead. If he breaks well, he'll have
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: a very strong chance of winning the race. If he
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: doesn't break well, his race is probably over inside of
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: ten seconds. There's other horses who want to be sitting
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: a little bit further back, like Sierra Leone and the
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: other closers who don't need his break as well and
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: can just kind of, you know, work out their trip,
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: get out of the gate and then find their spot.
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: So the break is extremely important, but even more important
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: in the twenty horse field. Now with the twenty horse field.
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: A few years ago in twenty twenty, they changed the
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: gate the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Specifically,
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: there used to be a fifteen horse starting gate and
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: then a little gap and then a five horse auxiliary gate,
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: and what that did because the auxiliary gate was angled
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: in it forced those five horses to all crush over,
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: and the sixteen and the fifteen and the seventeen would
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: all end up angled that one another and crashing into
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: each other. So they changed it a few years ago
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: in twenty twenty. It's a bit more fair of his
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: starting gate. Now it goes flat across the entire course.
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: And even though the seventeen horses over forty four in
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: the derby, other horses from the outside of one have
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: had more success in recent years since they changed the gate,
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: so I think the gate is playing a little bit
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: more fair. But in a twenty horse field, there's just
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: absolute chaos at the start. Getting through traffic for horses
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: at the end could be extremely difficult. It's really difficult
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: for a lot of these horses to work out trips.
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: And then also for the derby, you know, because it
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: is such a big race. A lot of owners are
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: entering just to say that they're in the derby. But
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: with a fifty to one shot that should probably be
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: really ninety nine to one if you're handicapping it correctly,
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: they don't actually have a realistic chance of winning, so
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: what they'll do is just send their horse from the
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: start of the race, tell them to run as fast
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: as possible, and then just pray they can carry it
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: all the way around the tracks. So the Derby pace
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: in the past couple of years has been a little
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: bit suicidal, just relative to other fractions in other Derbies
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: where we've seen it run more like a normal race.
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: I think every year in the Derby now going forward,
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: you're just going to get a couple owners who tell
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: their horses to send, and it's not so much the
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: pace that they're carving out as much as where that
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: next flight of horses is sitting behind them. That's going
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: to determine where the race plays out, because if they
• 5:59
  Speaker 5: do send and go as hard as they can, they're
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: eventually going to fall off. But how much can they
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: lure out the other contenders to follow them and maybe
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: get out of their preferred running style and change the
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: dynamics of the race. So yeah, the chaotic pace and
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: also the chaotic traffic that this race has caused with
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: twenty horses, just makes it such an interesting betting race
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: to handicap, but also makes it play out in a
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: fascinating way. But yeah, don't be surprised that the horse
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: that you pick is basically done with intent in side
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: of ten seconds on Saturday. I've been in that position
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: before and just kind of walk around the house with
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: my head in my hand and build the race is over.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Well, Simon, can you imagine that? Like we've obviously bet
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: a lot of football more than anything. Can you imagine
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: first ten seconds your bet is done? I mean the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: circumstances for that to happen in the NFL, you basically
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: have to lose your quarterback like the kick return. You know,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: that's got to be the most frustrating.
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: Oh it isn't chat, We survived it. Aaron Rodgers went
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: down to something we survived with Zach Wilson.
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: Brother, dude, I agree.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, I totally forgot about that.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but we have survived the more circumstances you can
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: have and we came out on the other side.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: You and Sean though, gave me a great debate for Saturday.
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: What is the best two minutes in sports? Is it
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: the two minute Drill or is it the Kentucky Derby?
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: So I do appreciate that chat. It's gonna be a
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: lot of fun. Bar banter on Saturday.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: For me with that question, I.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Love that, So Sean, that's incredibly frustrating to think about.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: All right, you're ten.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Seconds in and as you're thinking about this, twenty horses
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: in the race, positioning has a huge factor in it.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: How do you think about handicapping? Are you tossing horses
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: from the very beginning? What's your concept here?
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: Yes, in order to play Derby Exotics, I basically want
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: to eliminate half of the field that a minimum nine
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: to eleven horses, I would say, and then I only
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: want to be using it most nine or ten horses
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: on my exotic ticket. So I'll run down the field
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: here and talk about which horses I'm using, and then
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: talk about which horses I think drew well based on
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: the draw that they had earlier this year than usual,
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: which is great because it's just given us more time
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: to handicap, but as Mike Conti pointed out yesterday, potentially
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: more time to overthink things and maybe take out horses
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: that you normally would have had in. But the number
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: one door knock to me is going to be a rabbit.
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: I'll run himself out of the race eventually. The number
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: five catalytic does not fit on figures. The number nine
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: and Sino scratch outs will not be in the race.
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: The number ten too, Password is coming over from Japan.
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: Didn't love his works around Churchill downs. The number twelve
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: track Fantom also going to read a rabbit, but adding blinkers,
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: so he's actually going to be way out in front
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: of the field properly in the likely paysetter. I would
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: imagine the number thirteen West Saratoga doesn't fit for me either.
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: The number fourteen, endlessly is a bit of a wildcard
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: here because he raced on synthetic tracks. Sometimes horses coming
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: over from synthetic have more success on dirt. Usually they
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: have more success on turf. So I'm tossing the number
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: fourteen endlessly, but a bit tepid. I could absolutely see
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: that horse running in the money. The number sixteen Grandmo,
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: the first, the number twenty Society Man, those are my
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: final tosses of regardless how you're playing the race.
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: In terms of how I'm playing the race, I'm mostly
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: against the number two Sierra Leone because even though I
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: said I expect a fast pace, Sierra Leone is also
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: going to be stuck in the back of this twenty
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: horse field, and there's other closers that are going to
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: have better position than him in order to get first
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: jump on the run if there is a fast pace.
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: So the number seven on he Marie, the number three,
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: Mystic Dan, they're horses who may be a flight in
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: front of Sierra Leone, who I think could get the
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: best of him. So we'll talk about those horses a
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: bit later when it comes to long shots, but just
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: in terms of the draw and who drew perfectly for
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: their racing style, Fierceness absolutely wanted to be on the outside.
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: But not only that. All of the other horses who
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: are likely to be the speed horses, as I mentioned, Phantom,
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: the twelve, the eight, just to touch the one door knock,
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: they're all to his inside. So while all those horses
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: are gunning for the league, gunning to get around the
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: first turn and run the shortest distance around the racetrack,
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: Fierceness is just going to come out of his gate,
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: run the speed that he's accustomed to running, get about
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: two wide or three wide at that first turn, and
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: then be looking the top contender in the eye as
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: they go along the backstretch, coasting along and then hopefully
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: press on the gas as they run the final turn.
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: So if Fierceness was on the inside and the speed
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: were to his outside, he would be forced to go.
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: Because he's on the outside and all of it's to
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: his inside, he can kind of sit a more comfortable trip,
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: make sure he gets the position he needs to and
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: then coast around the track. So it alleviates a lot
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: of the concerns that have regarding Fierceness, just in terms
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: of the traffic trouble he may face in this race.
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: But at the same time, getting out of the gate
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: is as important as ever, and it will be important
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: for all of these horses, and he has had trouble
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: getting out of the gate in the past, So it
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: is a concern regarding Fierceness as favoritism. But in terms
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: of the gate draw, you could ask for anything better
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: than him to be on the outside. I think I
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: mentioned it before over forty four the seventeen saddlecloth number,
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: but he's not going to be running out of the
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: seventeen post. We already had one scratch, so he shifts
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: over to the sixteen. I've actually heard some rumors that
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: Dorkno might scratch as well, so that would move him
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: another post over into the fifteen and allow the twenty
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: two Mugatu to draw into the field. I should mention
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: when I was talking about the horses and going to
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: toss the number twenty one, Epic Ride drew into the
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: field because of the number nine scratch, I'm tossing the
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: number twenty one as well.
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: Sean, do you have any you know, terms of our
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: idea of what we should expect you about the weather
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: and track conditions coming up this weekend where you know
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: that's a big deal in racing and we've had some
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: shockers win because of those things. So as we get culcher,
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: do you have any idea about that?
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah, So it seems like it might rain on Oaks
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: Day on Friday, which would obviously not only impact those races,
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: but it may move some of the turfters, some of
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: the turf races back to the dirt, which changes which
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: horses you may end up selecting in that race, because
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: there's a huge difference between form on turf versus dirt,
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: and sometimes when there's expected to be rain in the forecast,
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: there's trainers who will enter horses hoping that it will rain,
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: and if it doesn't they'll scratch them out if it does.
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: They wanted the race to be on the dirt and
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: that's why they entered them in there. So there's actually
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: a strategic thing with owners and selecting the races on
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: potential days where there may be rain. But by Saturday,
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: to my knowledge, it should clear out. If it doesn't,
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: if the track is still a little bit wet, if
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: it's still a little bit of soft, the number three
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: Misstic Dan would certainly move up for me. So speed
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: figures are very important how I handicap races. Fierceness has
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: the top two speed figures in this field. He ran
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: a one to ten and a one oh five Buyer
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: speed figures. Usually coming into the derby there's at least
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: four or five horses that have run like low one
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: hundreds one one to one four one o five. The
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: only other horse besides Fierceness who's surpassed one hundred in
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: this field is missic Dan. He ran a one oh
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: one over a muddy track, so definitely is proven that
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: not only is he going to run better on a
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: muddy track, but he also ran his best race on
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: a muddy track, and he's been training really well leading
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: up to this race too, So I'd really like the
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: number three Mystic Dan if it rained. Fierceness, you know,
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: has a loss over a muddy track, and he's run
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: two poor races in his career. One of them you
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: can make more excuses for, just because it was his
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: first start off of a layoff. He didn't have the
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: fully stretched out distance that you would expect, and then
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: in his next race ran a career best race, but
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: he also lost in the mud and he didn't have
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: a great trip there, but it was just a sloppy
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: track and he ran kind of a clunker. So yeah,
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: I would absolutely downgrade Fierceness if it is going to rain.
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: I think his maiden might have come on a bit
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: of a softer track, but just didn't like the way
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: that he ran in that Champagne, and I think it
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: would certainly downgrade him relative to his favoritism status if
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: it rains on Friday into Saturday, or particularly if it's
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: raining on Saturday.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: The Derby has some of my favorite gambling phrases. You know,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: you think about the wall of sound, which I've heard
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: experts who handicapped the Derby. I've heard jockeys, trainers sort
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: of when you're coming around the turn and the horses
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: are facing that grandstand for the first time with one
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand people cheering, and you are going into this
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: wall of sound, a tunnel of sound. That's number one.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Number two Whisper Wednesday. Whisper Wednesday is one of my
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: favorite phrases in all of gambling. So for people who
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: will be watching the Derby for the first time and
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: listening to this podcast or betting it for the first time,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: explain what Whisper Wednesday is and its impact, and explain
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: what the wall of sound is and its impact.
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: So I feel like Whisper Wednesday has almost been extended
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: out over the course of the entire two weeks of
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: Churchill Downs. But basically by the time Wednesday rolls around,
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: you know who the buzz horses are around Churchill Downs.
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: You've had the clockers watching their workouts all week leading
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: up to the race, and people like Mike Walsh for
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: the daily racing for him do a phenomenal job.
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: I've learned so much watching his videos on YouTube.
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: He always does clocker reports every single day for the
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: two weeks leading up to the race, and Mike has
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: put me on some bigger horse big prices on horses,
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: Mandaloon was his favorite horse. The year he ended up
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: running finished second is my worst beat ever considering he's
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: now the official winner of the race since Medina Spirit
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: has been disqualified, and had he won the race that day,
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: I would have won about eighteen thousand dollars. So not
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: bitter about it at all. But what I'm saying is
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: we have speed scores right Normally I'm handicapping races based
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: upon speed scores, but for the Derby, there's so many
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: clockers at the track, and there's so much information regarding
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: which horses look good right now, and the horse that
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: looks the best right now is Fierceness, who's the morning
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: line favorite, And that is not always the case. Oftentimes
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to pick against the favorites because they don't
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: necessarily look the best training that week, and there's a
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: horse at longer odds who looks great training that week.
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: But Fierceness has gotten all of the buzz from workouts
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: this week and has become the buzz horse on top
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: of the fact that he's already the favorite, and I
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: think that's led to people saying if he runs his
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: best race, he wins because they see that he's not
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: only in top form from his last race, but probably
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: potentially progressing and improving off of that race, which doesn't
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: seem possible considering he already has such a big speed
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: score advantage over the entire field. Now the horse at
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: a price well, I think is the other buzz horse
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: who have seen leave a lot of people's mouths this
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: week is the number seven Honor Marie ben Curtis, the
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: jockey not as well known for the Derby, but really
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: good local rider where he's from. And this horse is
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: going to come with a late run I said, it'll
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: be in front of Sierra Leone and is arguably training
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: better this week sier Leone actually getting out worked by
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: a stablemate, the number fifteen domestic product in their works
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: around Churchill Downs this week. So whisper Wednesday? I think
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: originated as like by the time Wednesday comes around, everybody knows,
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: you know who the buzz horses are. But these are
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: horses that have been talked about now for about ten days.
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: They had their bigger workouts over the weekend last weekend,
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: the week before the race, seven days out from the race.
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: You know most of these horses as are getting their
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: final big works in over the weekend before. So yeah,
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: at this point kind of wrapping things up. You know,
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: the post positions are drawn, we know who's worked well.
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: They're just running their gallopouts and you know, light workouts
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: around the track to stay informed. But yeah, we pretty
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: much have the buzz horses solidified at this point. And
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: I'd say it's the number seventeen fierceness and the number
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: seven on a marine. And I've also heard good things
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: about the fore catching Freedom, the nineteen Resilience and the
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: three mystic. Dan fired a bull out work bullet work
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: last week as well, which means he was the fastest
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: of all of the horses to work that day. So
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: I said he did run well over a muddy track
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: that is his career best race. But it seems like
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: he's working pretty well at Churchill leading up to this
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: race too.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: I hate to say this, Sean.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: You mentioned missing out on an eighteen thousand dollars payday.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Can you relive that experience for our listeners go into
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a little more detail about what happened there.
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: Yeah, So I usually leave myself to three horses in
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: the Derby across bolt E race tickets, and if you're
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: not familiar with multi race tickets, it's my favorite way
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: to bet on horse racing. Essentially, it's a parlay across
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: multiple races, but you can select as many or as
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: few horses you like, and each had a race. So
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: the best way to play them typically is pick five's,
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: which you're betting on the outcomes of five consecutive races.
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: And you could either single, which means you're picking one
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: horse in that race, or you could pick an all,
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: which means you're getting every horse in that race, or
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: you could choose as many or as a few horses.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: As you like.
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: As I said, so typically in those sequences, you want
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: to have at least one single, if not two singles,
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: where it's one race where you just only have one
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: horse to win, because it just cheapens the price of
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: all of your tickets. I usually leave myself two or
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: three horses for the Derby. I believe that year I
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: left myself with three two of the shorter price favorites,
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: and then Mandaloon, who in future as I had at
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: twenty five to one or twenty seven to one, I
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: believe at post time he was closer to fifteen to
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: one and was in perfect position all the way around
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: the trip. And I've watched thousands of horse races in
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: my lifetime, and I've watched thousands of baseball games in
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: my lifetime. You know, there's a there's a great chapter
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: story in the book Blink by Malcolm Gladwell where he
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: talks about sitting with somebody who's a tennis expert, and
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: he's calling double faults before they happen, just by the
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: body language of the way the ball is being thrown up. Right,
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: if you watch enough sports, if you watch enough of
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: a particular sport, I feel like you have this unconscious
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: ability to identify when things are about to happen. And
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: I've watched enough horse races to know when a horse
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: looked like Mandaloon looked in the stretch running down on
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: his main contender, he's always going to pass them, or
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: at least pas him ninety nine percent of the time.
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: And he didn't, And I went, what the hell was that?
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: And then a couple days later it comes out the
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: median's spirit tested positive for steroids, and You're like, Oh,
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: he didn't pass him because that.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: Horse was used up.
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: Now, there's a lot of problems in the sport and
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: a lot of horses that are on drugs. We don't
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: have to go into all that, but I've just watched
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: should off horse racing to know that one he should
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: have passed them if Medina Spirit wasn't g stup, and
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: two Medina Spirit has been since been disqualified. It is
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: now mandalun is the official winner of the race. His
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: name hangs at Churchill Downs. He's the official winner in
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: Derby history. But very much like UFC bets where when
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: one fighter is cheating, but it doesn't come out for
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: a few days later, bets are graded based on the
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: result that happened on the field to play, so it
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: doesn't matter the news that comes out later. You don't
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: get your tickets cashed because it comes out later that
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: Mandaluon's the official winner. He putn't announce it as the
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: official winner for a full year. But even after Medina's
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: Spirit was disqualified. It's not like those tickets get paid out.
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: It's not like the people who bet on Medina Spirit
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: have to pay the money back. So felt like he
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: was the best horse that day but for the cheating,
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: and also feel like considering he's the hindsight winner it's
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: just like a double knife in the heart.
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I had all my.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: Pick five, Pick four tickets, Pick six tickets connected to
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: Mandalun at the end, I had my exotics running through
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: him as well.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: I had futures on him.
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: So all told, it was between fifty to twenty thousand,
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: I believe I settled on eighteen thousand. And then on
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: top of that, all the people who telled my tickets
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: that day through Action Network, through Twitter. Yeah, I mean
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: it was probably hundreds of thousands of dollars lost in
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: potential earnings just as a result of that beat. So
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: something that will stick with me for a very long time.
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: And I'm still waiting on my payback for a Derby
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: superfecta to get me even from that.
• 21:23
  Speaker 6: Well closing on the outside. But four of them come
• 21:27
  Speaker 6: into the final prolong Mandalone fighting for the front, Blandina
• 21:31
  Speaker 6: Spiruit medals off coming to the finish, and the Kentucky
• 21:34
  Speaker 6: Derby here's the wire Madina spirit best what The Kentucky
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: Derby mandlone was second run, Meddle was third, two and
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: one oh too. The final Ton mot Beffort stands alone
• 21:47
  Speaker 6: with seven Derby wins.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: Y're owed.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, bedding gods owe you, and if there's any justice,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: we're all gonna tail you this year and we will
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: all benefit from your wisdom and needs you to define
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: the impact of the wall of sound on these horses.
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's not even just as they're rounding the
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: first turn, but as they're getting into the starting gate.
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: You know, it's a lot some of these horses are
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: coming from smaller tracks where there were not as many
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: fans in the stands, and it's going to be much
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: louder at Churchill Downs. Even sier Leone got really worked
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: up in the gate before his last start. And also
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: the way they load these horses, you know, they alternate sides,
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: and some horses are sitting in that starting gate for
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: like three minutes while the final ones are loading, and
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: they're getting a little bit nervous, and then you see
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: sometimes they have to back one out and then put
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: them back in because he was standing in the gate
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: too long and starting to get you know, a little
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: nervous and trying to throw the rider off. So it's
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: not even just as they round the first turn and
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: the effects that the crowd might have and sometimes horses
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: tend to drift out towards the sound too, Like they
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: they may be running in the center of the track
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: and they'll change leads and start to drift towards the
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: outside rider who's basically guarding the guardrail for these horses,
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: and that gets a little nervy too, because you don't
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: want one of them jumping the fence.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it's a distraction.
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: It's like anything else, Like a college athlete going in
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: you're you know, you go from a high school game
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: and you're going to a big college football stadium for
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: the first time. That sound is going to hit you
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: and it's going to throw you off your game a
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: little bit. And I think the same thing happens with
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: these animals, and the same thing may even happen with
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: these rookie jockeys too. There's a nineteen year old jockey
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: in this oh well, and Sino ended up getting scratched,
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: but Axel Conceptsiom was supposed to ride him. He's a
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: nineteen year old jockey. You know, just imagine being in
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: that environment for the first time and you've never ridden
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: there and there's eighty thousand people, you know, screaming at
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: the top of their lungs like that would that would
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: absolutely throw anybody off, but especially I feel like if
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: you're a younger kid, not used to it. So yeah,
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: the horses, the jockeys can all be impacted by it.
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: But it's just it's such a loud environment and it
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: can cause people. It could cause horses to be off
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: their game. So definitely is an impact, and it's it's
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: kind of unpredictable or unquantifiable, you know how it might
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: impact these individual horses. But I think Sierra Leone like
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: worth keeping an eye on in the starter gate, considering
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: he did get a little worked up before his last start.
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: I would say, as most listeners of our show, as
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: an amateur better voices. My head's spinning with a lot
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: of this stuff. You said, right, it's hard to track
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: all of it. If you could just give me your
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: favorite win candidates, Like who if I came up to
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: you and I'm right right out to the window, just
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: give me the list of them right here, so I
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: know exactly which one's the bet? Which ones would they be?
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's two.
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: The seventeen fierceness of said, if he runs his best race,
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: he wins huge speed score advantage over this entire field
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: he ran, and this is like very interesting to think about.
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: He ran a ninety five Buyer speed figure as a maiden,
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: that's faster than seventy five percent of this field has
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: ever run. And he was two years old. It was
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: his first race. Came back, had that clunkers I talked
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: about in the mud. Then he ran a one five
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: Buyer speed figure in the Juvenile last year. That's the
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: fastest speed score in this race aside from mist the
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: dang who ran the one on one in the mud.
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: So he's already faster than everybody else. Came back as
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: a three year old, was short in the wholelley ball,
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: meaning it was his first star back off of a layoff.
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: He wasn't finally tuned, didn't have enough in the stretcher
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: on to get the distance. That happens sometimes when horses
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: are their first start off of a layoff, they're just
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: not as stretched out as they should be to meet
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: the distance. Second start back ran one hundred and ten
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: speed figure in the far To Derby. It's the highest
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: Derby Prep speed figure in the past decade plus. It's
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: the most impressive effort I've seen on tape in quite
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: some time from a Derby Prep race, so he has
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: the two fastest speed scores in the field. He's the
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: only horse to break one hundred on a dirt dry track,
• 25:32
  Speaker 5: so already way faster than everybody else, right, But he's
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: also the buzz horse this week and apparently his owner,
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: his trainer, all the clockers think he's going to take
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: a step forward.
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: So how does he lose? He needs to progress, and
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: the other horses in the field need to progress, they
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: need to run career best figures, while he runs a
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: figure that's worse than his last race. Also obviously starting
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: a trouble or just a ridiculous pace where his rider
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: doesn't correctly track two horses that fly out out in
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: front of the rest of the field and doesn't time
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: to ride well and closers end up passing him. So
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: that's how he loses.
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: I think he wins fifty to sixty percent of the
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: time realistically, and I think he's going to go off
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: at even money or four to five, which is in
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: line with a fifty to sixty percent prediction. If he's
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: five to two, you absolutely bet him to win, because
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: that is a plus two to fifty bet compared to
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: my projecting him. You know, even money or minus one fifty.
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: That would be a massive edge. If that was any
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: other sport, you'd be putting a max bet on it. Frankly,
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: even if he's three to two, that's still like a
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: ten percent edge at forty percent relative to saying he
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: wins fifty percent of the time, So anything three to
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: two are better. On fierceness, I think is Bettable the
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: horse that I like most. If something happens to fierceness,
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: if he doesn't run his race, he gets caught at
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: the starting gate, it's.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: A ridiculous pace.
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: The number eight, just to Touch I think runs extremely
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: well every time. He's going to be forward in a
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: pace that I don't think is going to be as
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: fast as it has been in the past couple of
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: years when we had a couple of long shots in
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: Rich Strike and Mage take down the field, you know,
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: coming from the back of the pack. So I think
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: we're going to get a slightly more moderate pace this year.
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: And Just the Touch showed in his last race where
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: he was defeated by Sierra Leone that he can stay
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: on the pace and then maintain that run even as
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: the other pace setters are falling off. And that's what
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: was most impressive to me. He finished second, in between
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: Sierra Leone and in between Epic Ride, who are both
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: in this field and both going to be coming from
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: the back of the pack, and they closed down on
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: the pace that day, but just a touch like the
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: other leaders in that race, didn't fall back. He stayed
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: in his position, and that's a really encouraging sign when
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: you're visually handicapping horse races. Horses who are either maintaining
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: their pace as the closers come in and they're the
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: only one who stayed up, or in a slow paced race,
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: when horses are the only one closing and nobody else
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: is either moving forward or back, they're the only one
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: moving up. Those are both visually strong signs from a
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: handicapping perspective. So Fierceness the likeliest win contender to me
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: just to touch my second favorite wing content. And if
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: you want to talk about top long shots, I don't
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: know if these horses necessarily are going to win the race,
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: but the number fifteen domestic product just what I talked
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: about moving up in a slow paced race the Tampa
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: Bay Derby, he was the only horse basically that advanced
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: position came from the back of the pack ended up
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: going from eight to first or fifth to first, and
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: everybody else basically stayed in the positions that they were.
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: So Domestic Product doesn't have the speed figures he has
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: like an eighty two high career high speed figure, but
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: he has a phenomenal trainer in Chad Brown, he has
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: an elite jockey in Irad Ortiz Junior. I don't know
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: if I've ever seen a Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: horse ever lined at thirty to one, and I think
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: he's underrated on the speed scores from that last race,
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: and also has been a very buzzy horse in terms
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: of training this week. Seems like he has a career
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: best effort in him. So the number fifteen Domestic Product
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: at thirty to one, I could say very similar things
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: for the number nineteen Resilience, who also is coming off
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: of a career best race where he added blinkers, meaning
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: his trainer wanted him to be more forward and not
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: focused on the horses around him. So sometimes they add
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: blinkers to get their horses more forward. So expect him
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: to be running a similar race to how he did
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: last time in the Wood Memorial. The one knock you
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: can make against that is the Wood Memorial has not
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: produced many Derby winners or successful Derby runners in recent years.
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: It's been one of the least predictive preps for the Derby,
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: whereas Fierceness won the Florida Derby, which is probably the
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: most predictive prep for Derby success.
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: So just another point in Fierceness's corner.
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: But yeah, the seventeen, Fierceness, the eight just to Touch
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: those are my two favorite win contenders, and then the
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: fifteen domestic product the nineteen Resilience my top two favorite
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: long shots. I don't know if I would give those
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: horses a real chance to win, but definitely think they
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: could run in the money.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: Feels a little chalky this year, more chalky than usual.
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I don't like picking favorites in the Derby.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: I really never do.
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: Now, if you're going to bet this from an exotic
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: perspective or what have you, or even multi race tickets,
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: I think you should try to beat one of the favorites.
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: I think you should try to beat Fierceness, or you
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: should try to beat Sierra Leone. And even though I'm
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: on Fierceness right in my opinion on the race's fierceness
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: against Sierra Leone. If you're playing Sierra Leone, you're betting
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: on there being a pace meltdown and Sierra Leon getting
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: the race that he needs to run, and that means
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: that the number four catching Freedom at eight to one
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: should also be in the mix because he's a horse
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: who wants to come from the back. The seven Honor Marie,
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: the three, Mystic Day and those horses should all be
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: able to have success in a race where there is
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: a pace meltdown. So, like I said, even though I
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: am a handicapping fierceness to win, I like the favorite here.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: If you like sier Leon, I see the argument for it.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: I just think you.
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: Should make a correlated play with the other closers who
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: are likely to have success if he does too. So
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: just think about that from a handicapping perspective too, Like
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: try to build a story or a narrative for how
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: you think the race could play out in different ways,
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: and then bet accordingly. If I think fearcens is going
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: to win, I think it's likely that Sierra Leon didn't
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: get the pace he needed to run into, so I'll
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: be using other horses.
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: Around him.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Simon, can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: the United States? Game On? That's right, it's game Time.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I love Game Time for two reasons. First, they still
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  Speaker 1: sponsor this show. Second, I use game Time all the time.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: They have amazing last minute deals, including pro and college sports.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I'm in our Action Network studios here in New York City.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I'm opening the game Time app right now, and what
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: do I see, Sorry, Sean Zillo, super Mets fan. I
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: see New York Yankee tickets available for less than forty dollars.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Get out have some fun this week.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: You deserve it.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the game Time
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: app and use code Favorites for twenty dollars off your
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: first purchase. Last minute tickets lost prices guaranteed before we
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: let you go. As I said at the top, you
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: know your host payoff pitch and we love when you
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: come on and give us some baseball insight, long term futures,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: baseball insight. What do Simon and I have to be
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: thinking about right now when it comes to betting baseball,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: And I should mention people should follow you in the
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Action Network app. You're on a fucking tear right now
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: betting baseball. So what are we looking for when it
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: comes to betting baseball right now?
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: So with the injuries that have increased concerning pitchers, or
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: just with the pitchclock and all of the new rules
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: that have introduced, baseball is like desperately scrambling to figure
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: out why pitchers are getting injured more frequently. And there's
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: a it's basically a systemic issue regarding pitchers chasing stuff
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: plus and chasing velocity. And you need to throw hard
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: to get a college scholarship, and then you need to
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: throw hard to get drafted, and then you need to
• 32:44
  Speaker 5: throw hard to make the big leagues. And then once
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: you're on a big league contract, doesn't matter because you
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: could just get Tommy John surgery, because then you're making
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: three d or K year to sit out for a
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: year to get Tommy John. So, considering the amount of
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: pitching injuries that are happening, actually bet fewer World I
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: have one World Series feature.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: It's on the Braves.
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: It's from before the season, before Spencer Strader got hurt
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: and I bet fewer World Series futures or pen and
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: futures this year than I ever had before because I
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: almost want to see who's healthy in October, and I
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: don't really care about the value I'm getting now if
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: a guy like Spencer Strader is going to go out
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: and then the Braves are without their best starting pitcher
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: for the playoffs. So I'm hesitant on World Series futures
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: this year. I've been betting many more divisional futures and
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: yes or no to make the playoff futures, et cetera.
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: I want to talk about baseball betting generally and how
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: edges diminish and how you can find new ones, and
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: in relation to all of this, like actual futures. So
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: something I noticed with the Rangers last season was played approach,
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: and I didn't know how to quantify it, but every
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: picture they faced, they were just grinding them down, taking
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: the pitches they were supposed to take, swinging pitches that
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: were actually in the zone, and people have started. There
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: was a stack called Seeger that Robert or Or quantified
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: over the offseason. You can go find it on Baseball Perspective.
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: It's a great article, but it's basically trying to quantify
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: plate discipline and hitters who make good swing decisions and
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: hitters who make bad swing decisions. And we can also
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: kind of turn that around and quantify pitchers who make
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: good pitch selections and pitchers who make bad pitch selections
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: right for particular accounts, but we're starting to get to
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: a point where we can now pinpoint data for players
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: and pinpoint data for teams based on the decisions that
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: they're making their process for actually deciding which balls to
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: select at. And there's a way different skill right deciding
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: whether to swing at a pitch and actually making contact
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: with that pitch and driving it hard. Those are all
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: completely different skill sets. So with that said, this is
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: something that I really feel like I noticed with the
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: Rangers last year but couldn't find a way to quantify it.
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: And the reason the stats called seegers because Corey Seeker
• 34:58
  Speaker 5: is better at this than anybody else. And we're about
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: to get to a point where these numbers are going
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: to start coming out publicly, and when they do, I
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: think using it is going to give you an advantage
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: over the betting market because I think swing decisions can
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: be very predictive for team's success, and we have all
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: of this data data points to quantify pitchers and pitcher
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: effectiveness and picture quality and pitcher stuff. But the stats
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: that we have, the advanced stats that we have for
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: hitters are still kind of batted ball data that's like
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: base how hard are you hitting the ball? How much
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: are you taking pitches? But we don't have process oriented stuff.
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: So that said, I think by the end of the
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: year this stuff is going to start coming out publicly
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: and we'll know which teams are better, which teams are
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: worse at this on top of which teams are actually
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: healthy come playoff time. So I don't have any actual
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: takes right now. But also I said before the season,
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: the Rangers are going to be getting to Gram and
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: Scherzer and Tyler Mahley and a bunch of arms back
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: for the second half of this season for the.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: All Star break.
• 35:58
  Speaker 5: They're struggling right now, they're playing around five hundred baseball.
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: But I think this team is going to be much
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: better in the second half of the season than they
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: were in the first half of the season. And I
• 36:05
  Speaker 5: think they're continuing to take really good played approaches too,
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: even with their rookies. So I like Texas potentially as
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: a bet, as a future's bet around the All Star break.
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: I want that price to float up a little bit
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: closer though, to twenty to one. You can get as
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: high as fifteen to one right now. I think twenty
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: to one would probably be an entry point for me
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: on the Rangers. They're going to be a way better
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: team in the second half and they were in the
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: first half. And I really want to see those swing
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: decision numbers come out because I think it's really going
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: to show that they excel at that relative to the
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: rest of the league. The Braves are very good at it. Two,
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: you know, and another point, another big picture point. Last
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: year I said, with all these picture injuries, I want
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: the teams that are offensive oriented come playoff time. Well,
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: the Rangers made the World Series and the Diamondbacks, who
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: put the ball in play more than any other team
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: made the World Series. And that's another very important factor
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: come playoff time. Two teams who make contact tend to
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: have a little bit more success. As we move towards,
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: you know, a power driven sport and a strikeout driven sport,
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: power on.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Both sides of the ball.
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: Putting the ball in play actually has a ton of
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: value some playoff time when you're facing better pitching, you
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: just need to be able to put contact and get
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: runners around the bases and win lower scoring games. So yeah,
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: I think teams like the Guardians could be annoying come
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: playoff time because they make a lot of contact. The
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: d Backs could be annoying because of the contact they make.
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: But the Rangers I think have a great played approach.
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: And one other team too I want to mention is
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: just started out slow, a bit of a long shot,
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: but they're pitching is tremendous and I would not want
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: to face the San Francisco Giants in the playoffs. Obviously,
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: logan black bantlcion contender. They signed Blake Snell, who's the
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: nlcion from last year. He's struggling through it a bit
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: right now. I think he'll eventually find his way into form.
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: But they have a couple other young guys too, keat
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: and Win and Kyle Harrison who's starting today for them,
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: who look phenomenal. Jordan Wicks that converted from a reliever.
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: He looks great. So if the Giants get some more
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: offensive production and make the playoffs, they're a team I
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: would not want to see just because they're starting pitching
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: is going to be tremendous of an advantage over a
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: lot of teams.
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: So before we let you go, I gotta do a
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: buy and a cell. I mean, you didn't even mention
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: them the best team in baseball the twenty one wins
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia Phillies.
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: Is this real?
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: I have two guys hitting over three to thirty on
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: the Phillies right now, Like, I can't believe I have
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: just two stud batters. And Zach Wheeler is he a
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: real candidate for Cy Young? And then what the fuck
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: is going on with Houston? Like, if you haven't paid
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: attention to baseball people, the Houston Astro suck now.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: It's crazy.
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: They're terrible.
• 38:35
  Speaker 5: Is this?
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: Are they a good by lower? Am I just living
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: in the past. It's Houston. The Astro is just bad now.
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: No, I think the Astros era might be over, and
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: I know they still have the names on the roster,
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: But this is a team who moved aggressively away from
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: analytics and back towards scouting and letting their owner make
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: decisions in the past couple of years. You know, they
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: lost Jeff Lunau during the entire conspiracy theory regarding the
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: buzzers and the technology and the dugout in the garbage cans. Right,
• 39:03
  Speaker 5: So their GM, Jeff Blueow was fired somehow, Alex Korra
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: has gotten a job twice since then, and Carlos Beltrand
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: remains unable to get a managerial job. I don't really
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: know what's going on there. But then they had James Click.
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: The owner and James Click were not clicking, and he
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: ended up getting rid of James Click, who I believe
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: now works in Boston. And then they signed Jose A.
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: Braw which was apparently an ownership decision. They signed Josh Hater,
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: which was apparently an owner decision. They have Jeff Bagwall
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: as like their chief advisor. Now he's never worked in
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: any sort of front office role aside from just being
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: friends with the owner. So the astros were just trending
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: in a direction from the top down where it's like,
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: what's going on with their management? Their owners making decisions.
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: They're not making decisions based off of analytics anymore. Signing
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: Jose Abreu is not something the previous iteration of these
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: general managers ever would have done. In an old first baseman
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: whose age is actually somewhat unknown, who's showing declining metrics
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: like that's just not something the Ashers would have done
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: in your past. But Alex Bregman has a swing change
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: this year. He's really struggling going through it. Their entire
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: rotation has been on the il at some point and
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: may get banged up again. So yeah, I could see
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: the Ashers making the playoffs. I could see them rallying,
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: but I would bet against it at this point and
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't take any of their futures or by low
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: on them at this point. I think Seattle and Texas
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: with the teams who coming out of that division, and
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: I think the Central Division is stronger this year and
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: potentially could get two teams the al least you know,
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: his five teams above five hundred, or at least did
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: at one point. So yeah, it's going to be difficult
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: for the West to get three teams. And starting this poorly,
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: they've really put themselves behind it. In terms of the Phillies, JT.
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: Real Muto is showing signs at the cline he was
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: last year as well, and Nick Castellanos is continuing to
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: chase it pitches outside of his zone and looks like
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: he's going to age poorly. So the Phillies lineup has
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: been rough this year. They're really struggling to score runs.
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: Unders have been hitting a lot in these Phillies games.
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: Their bullpen is tremendous and their starting rotation is as
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: deep as it's ever been. Ranger Suarez looks as healthy
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: as he's looked in the past few years, pitching tremendously.
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: Christopher Sanchez has been one of our Action Network's favorite
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: arms to bet on for the past couple years. He's
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: got a great change up. He's a really underrated lefty
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: and Zach Willers you brought up Simon. I think he
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: is a legitimate sy On candidate. His strikeout rate is
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: up five percent this year and it says there's a
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: result of a new pitch mix he's I believe he
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: introduced a splitter which is going to like twelve or
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: fourteen percent of the time this year, and a strikeout
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: rate has increased. And strikeout rate is one of those
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: stats that stabilizes a lot more quickly than other data points,
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: especially for pitchers. When you see an increase in strikeout
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: rate and it carries across five to seven starts, it's
• 41:44
  Speaker 5: usually going to stabilize there, So, yeah, I think Zach
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: Willer may finally capture his cy Young Award this year
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: if he stays healthy. He was banged up last year.
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: He's he actually has some like more injury history concerns
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: than you would think.
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: But he also he played for the Mets. That's true.
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: It's very true.
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: The Mets doctor is of a history of like, yeah,
• 42:02
  Speaker 5: amazing everybody who came through. But yeah, I think Zach Wheler,
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: if he continues pitching like this, he may finally capture
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: his first cy Young Award. And he also seems like
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: one of these guys who, like when Verlander was younger
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: in his career, he would throw like ninety two ninety
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: three at the beginning of starts and then he was
• 42:18
  Speaker 5: throwing like ninety seventy to one hundred by the end
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: of them. He knows how to pitch, right. He doesn't
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: just know how to throw the ball. He knows how
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: to adam, subtract and like save his best for when
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: he needs it. Willer's velocity was down it a little
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: bit at the start of the year and actually had
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: some concerns, But I think he's just saving bolts. I
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: think this is a guy who knows how to work
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: his way through a season and be healthy for October.
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: So health concerns based off of previous injuries, but in
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: terms of like intelligence or knowing how to pitch and
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: knowing how to keep his body healthy, I mean, Zack
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: Whiler's top of the top.
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think the Phillies.
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: Pitching is better than it has been in the past
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: couple of years, and I think their offense is worse,
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: So I don't actually view them as a better team.
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: But I think even with the offensive declines, they're still
• 42:59
  Speaker 5: just as good and arguably deeper pitching staff. So you know,
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: if you like pitching more in October, it gives them
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: a better chance. But keeping the pitching healthy is what's
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: going to be difficult.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: I always forget what a big baseball fan Simon is
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: closet huge Phillies fan.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're so, he's so Philly.
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: Should say for the nleast with the pitching, right, the
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: fact that the Phillies are plus three twenty five and
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: they have deeper pitching than the Braves. Max Freed was
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: showing little concerns earlier in the year, but obviously Spencer
• 43:28
  Speaker 5: Schroder getting hurt is a huge injury. I wouldn't argue
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: against taking three to one three and a half to
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: one on the Phillies to win the nlleast at this point.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't.
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: They're gonna get good starts every game, and they have
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: a really good bullpen, and you know, if Ronald Caccuna
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: gets hurt for the Braves, he was dealing with injuries
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: in the spring, like absolutely, you know have a chance
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: to win the division. So not something I've bet yet,
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: but something I've thought about in the past couple days
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: is the Phillies potentially being wive to win their division.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: It's everything Simon wanted to hear. As a reminder, the
• 43:54
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• 44:34
  Speaker 2: Simon and I back.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Next week we'll start digging deep into NFL futures, win totals,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: all post draft grading and responses for every NFL team.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of the Favorites
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