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Did the AI Bubble Just Burst?! What’s Next for Bitcoin? | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Oh, what the hell is happening? Coins crashing, AI is melting
• 0:05
  down, soft banks bleeding out, and the Cosby just hit the
• 0:09
  circuit breaker. What the hell is this, 2008?
• 0:12
  Need Skynet or what Trump just posted.
• 0:15
  And so it begins. Well, guess what?
• 0:18
  It has begun, and I'm not sure anyone's ready for what's
• 0:22
  coming. Well, the fear and greed meter
• 0:30
  just snapped off the hinges. Markets are bleeding, memes are
• 0:33
  screaming, SoftBank is down 12% must be halted, and Oracle looks
• 0:39
  like a debt ridden casino with a fancy logo.
• 0:42
  Ladies and gentlemen, remember, remember the 5th of November?
• 0:46
  And can someone tell me how long I have to trust the plan?
• 0:50
  Is the plan in the room with us right now?
• 0:53
  Because the plan right now looks like this Open AI has apparently
• 0:57
  committed to buying $1.25 trillion worth of compute.
• 1:01
  That's not a number. It's like a bond villain budget
• 1:04
  Oracle's debt to equity ratio 500% and their net debt to EBI
• 1:10
  TDA 400%. You could almost run a central
• 1:13
  bank with those numbers. And Japan SoftBank down nearly
• 1:17
  13% overnight after Scam Altman gave an interview bragging about
• 1:22
  infinite compute. Japan watched it and was like,
• 1:25
  yeah, no thanks. They're not confessing, they're
• 1:28
  bragging. How you know, how can the
• 1:30
  company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of
• 1:35
  spend commitments? You know, and, and, and you've
• 1:38
  heard the criticism. Saying we're doing well more
• 1:40
  revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want
• 1:43
  to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer.
• 1:46
  I just enough like, you know, people are I think there's a lot
• 1:50
  of people who would love to buy open air shares.
• 1:52
  I don't. I don't think you.
• 1:53
  Including myself. Including myself.
• 1:57
  Who talk? With a lot of like breathless
• 1:59
  concern about our compute stuff or whatever that would be
• 2:01
  thrilled to buy shares. So I think we we could sell, you
• 2:04
  know, your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who
• 2:06
  are making the most noise on Twitter whatever about this very
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  quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow
• 2:11
  steeply. Revenue is growing steeply.
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  We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to go
• 2:16
  grow and that not only will charter BT keep growing, but we
• 2:20
  will be able to become one of the important AI clouds that our
• 2:24
  consumer device business will be a significant and important
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  thing that AI that can automate science will create huge value.
• 2:32
  So, you know, there are not many times that I want to be a public
• 2:37
  company, but one of the rare what times it's appealing is
• 2:40
  when those people are writing these ridiculous open AI is
• 2:42
  about to go out of business and you know, whatever.
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  I would love to tell them they could just short the stock and I
• 2:47
  would love to see them get burned on that.
• 2:49
  But you know, I we carefully plan, we understand where the
• 2:55
  technology, where the capabilities going to grow go
• 2:59
  and, and how the products we can build around that and the
• 3:01
  revenue we can generate. We might screw it up.
• 3:03
  Like this is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk
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  along with that. A certain risk is if we don't
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  have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or
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  make the models of these at this kind of scale.
• 3:14
  Exactly. And let me.
• 3:15
  Just say one thing, Brad, as both a partner and an investor,
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  there is not been a single business plan that I've seen
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  from Open AI that they're put in and not beaten it.
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  So in some sense, this is the one place where, you know, in
• 3:33
  terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been
• 3:37
  unbelievable execution quite frankly.
• 3:39
  I mean, obviously Open AI, everyone talks about all the
• 3:41
  success in the usage and what have you, but even I would say
• 3:45
  all up the business execution has been just pretty
• 3:48
  unbelievable. And there's Michael Bury, the
• 3:50
  guy from the Big Short loading up 80% of his $1.3 billion fund
• 3:56
  on NVIDIA and Palantir puts he's literally shorting the AI
• 4:00
  revolution. And the CEO of Palantir is not
• 4:04
  happy and just lost all muscle control on live TV.
• 4:07
  The data center frenzy, mark my words, will be remembered as the
• 4:11
  largest waste of capital in human history.
• 4:14
  But hey, when the bubble burst, it just frees up liquidity to
• 4:17
  flow to the hardest asset on earth, Bitcoin.
• 4:20
  Korea just hit the circuit breaker.
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  Trading halted after a 6.4% plunge.
• 4:24
  Japan's 10 year yield is at its highest level since the global
• 4:28
  financial crisis. The Nikkei's bleeding.
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  The NASDAQ is getting buried. The AI trade was global and now
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  the dominoes are falling. And when Japan sneezes, the
• 4:39
  world gets leveraged Liquidation fever because their bond market
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  is the carry trade for everything.
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  This isn't just an AI bubble, it's a liquidity black hole.
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  Meanwhile, in America, the Treasury's draining a trillion
• 4:52
  dollars from the system like a vacuum cleaner on turbo mode.
• 4:55
  Here's the real story. Nobody on CNBC will say out loud
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  that money is sitting there doing nothing, which means it
• 5:01
  isn't in the market. When the Treasury hoards cash,
• 5:04
  liquidity dies, funding costs rise, and Bitcoin gets punched
• 5:08
  in the face. The Fed was just forced to
• 5:10
  restart repo operations for the first time since 2019, injecting
• 5:14
  30 billion to keep the system well from completely snapping.
• 5:19
  This is what a liquidity vacuum looks like, and when that vacuum
• 5:22
  breaks, the snapback rally is violent.
• 5:25
  Historically, when the Treasury hoards cash and the markets hit
• 5:28
  extreme, fear the reversal that follows.
• 5:31
  It's biblical. And the market for sort of
• 5:33
  crypto native retail is just more depressed than I've ever
• 5:37
  seen it. I think that market is close to
• 5:40
  a bottom. It's hard to find a crypto
• 5:41
  native investor who still has much enthusiasm for the market.
• 5:46
  I think the market is shifting into an institutionally driven
• 5:49
  market. And interestingly, that market
• 5:52
  is still bullish. When I go out and speak to
• 5:54
  institutions or financial advisors, they're still excited
• 5:58
  to allocate to an asset class that if you pan back and look
• 6:01
  over the course of a year is still delivering very strong
• 6:04
  returns. So my view of the market is we
• 6:07
  have to get through this retail flush out.
• 6:09
  We have to hit bottom from a sentiment perspective.
• 6:12
  I think we're very close to that.
• 6:14
  And then I'm optimistic that we rally into the end of the year
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  and into 2026 as the institutional investors who are
• 6:21
  more maybe even keeled about what's going on at a fundamental
• 6:25
  level in crypto start to drive the market forward.
• 6:28
  So I'm optimistic, but we do have to finish this washout of
• 6:32
  retail sentiment. And again, I think we're closer
• 6:35
  to the end of that than the beginning.
• 6:36
  But they're, you know, there always could be a little bit
• 6:38
  more downside. Institutions know it.
• 6:40
  They're already buying the fear the bottom is in when you feel
• 6:44
  like throwing up. Now the real question is
• 6:46
  $1,000,000 Bitcoin still on the table?
• 6:49
  Well, we have a clip from Giga Chad sounding off.
• 6:51
  We're about to bring it home, but before we do, look at our
• 6:54
  likes. 3. Four times maybe?
• 6:56
  I pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers in this
• 6:58
  racket. Let's take a quick second for
• 7:00
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• 7:03
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  first loan. Bitcoin just broke below 100K
• 7:49
  for the the first time since May Twitter panicked, CNBC
• 7:52
  celebrated. But the data tells a different
• 7:55
  story. This pullback follows the
• 7:57
  largest crypto liquidation in history.
• 7:59
  Over 20 billion wiped out in a day.
• 8:01
  Long term holders dumped 319,000 BTC back onto the market in
• 8:06
  October, and CME futures are at their lowest premium since the
• 8:10
  March 2023 banking crisis. And yet Bitcoin is still here.
• 8:15
  The charts look horrendous, I get it, but this setup is
• 8:19
  identical to every post liquidation consolidation phase
• 8:22
  we've ever seen. Slow, heavy, choppy, then boom.
• 8:27
  The macro tailwinds are too strong.
• 8:29
  Rate cuts incoming, 401K, access to Bitcoin approved, and tier
• 8:33
  one banks all getting exposure. People are panicking like we're
• 8:36
  going to zero. Stop being a panicking.
• 8:38
  News flash, we've been here before.
• 8:40
  Some of us wrote it from 17K to 3K then from 65K to 15K and
• 8:45
  bought more. You think we're scared of a dip
• 8:48
  to 80 K? What bears?
• 8:50
  Is that all you got? The prophecy has been fulfilled.
• 8:53
  One day people will panic when we crash to 100K today it's that
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  day. It's on days like this when the
• 9:01
  screens go red and retail runs for cover that institutions
• 9:04
  hunt. They feed on panic and buy your
• 9:07
  Bitcoin cheap. Even the orange man is out here
• 9:09
  saddened by the bearishness. Damn it, I gave them a dip.
• 9:13
  They should be thanking me. Kramer just said we're at a bear
• 9:16
  market. Hey, queue up that Lynn Alden
• 9:19
  train gift Choo Choo. The bitwise CIO says we rally by
• 9:24
  year end. Sailor says Bitcoin is still on
• 9:26
  track to hit a million. And I say Bitcoin will crash all
• 9:30
  the way up because this is how every cycle ends, in despair
• 9:34
  before lifting. You can imagine that the banks
• 9:36
  were afraid to get involved with crypto under the previous
• 9:39
  administration. You know, getting a supportive
• 9:42
  White House, a supportive cabinet, a supportive head of
• 9:45
  the Treasury, and then a law that says that it is legal for
• 9:49
  you to do this, I think was pretty important.
• 9:52
  Then that has resulted in an avalanche of institutional
• 9:57
  adoption. And now you have companies like
• 10:00
  JP Morgan, right, and Bank of America and Wells Fargo and B&Y
• 10:06
  Mellon and PNC Bank and City that are all announcing their
• 10:11
  support for this asset class. And if the trillion dollar banks
• 10:16
  are willing to custody and they're willing to extend credit
• 10:19
  and they're willing to handle the asset class and they're
• 10:21
  willing to bank the crypto industry, that's really the
• 10:24
  necessary condition to 10X from here.
• 10:28
  Like Bitcoin got to 100,000 without their help, but getting
• 10:31
  to 1,000,000 requires the banks to to bank the asset.
• 10:36
  And so the next four year period is really about banking Bitcoin
• 10:41
  and, and the support for digital assets in general by the major
• 10:45
  establishment of bankers in the United States and everybody else
• 10:49
  in the world, right? You can imagine the bankers in
• 10:51
  Australia, Canada, Singapore, the Middle East and Europe,
• 10:56
  Mexico, Southern, they all follow the US banking standard.
• 11:00
  And So what you have is an avalanche or a sea change here
• 11:05
  and the tail, the headwinds have become tailwinds.
• 11:07
  OK, so that's what got us here. Let's just talk about the short
• 11:10
  term 2025 year end. Where does it end up because
• 11:14
  I've heard everything from 100 to 200,000.
• 11:16
  Yeah. Well, the consensus of all the
• 11:18
  equity analysts and there's like a dozen of them that cover our
• 11:20
  stock is north of one 5100 and 50,000.
• 11:25
  Our our corporate guidance is targeted at $150,000 by the end
• 11:30
  of the year. Right.
• 11:32
  The AI bubble bursting may be the final warning shot the world
• 11:35
  just learned what happens when you bet on infinite promises
• 11:38
  instead of finite truth. Money flows the truth, and the
• 11:41
  truth lives on the Bitcoin network.
• 11:43
  So light one up, touch some grass, zoom out, and remember
• 11:47
  when they panic, you stick. Because well, every meltdown in
• 11:51
  Fiat land is another bullish signal for Bitcoin.
• 11:55
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• 12:19
  Hey hope you guys enjoyed this one smash the likes subscribe
• 12:22
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• 12:28
  daily. I love you guys.
• 12:29
  Catch you next time, Perch.