Latest / Financial Survival Network / Rebound or Recession? Market Warning Signs - Jim Welsh #6274

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Rebound or Recession? Market Warning Signs - Jim Welsh #6274 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
Speaker 1: So right now, the market I think is still of
0:02
Speaker 1: the mind that we don't have to worry about a recession.
0:05
Speaker 1: I mean, the risks are up a little bit, but
0:08
Speaker 1: you know, things are all going to work out, deals
0:10
Speaker 1: are going to be made, and everything's going to be
0:13
Speaker 1: co pro setic. I'm just not in that camp. I
0:16
Speaker 1: just think it's time to be a little bit more
0:18
Speaker 1: skeptical of let's buy every dip and it's going to
0:22
Speaker 1: be you know, Nirvana.
0:23
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0:51
Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
0:54
Speaker 3: Survival Network.
0:55
Speaker 1: I'm your os Kerrie Letz.
0:57
Speaker 3: Well, if you're surprised about what happened, what's happened to
1:01
Speaker 3: the market over the past couple of months, you shouldn't be,
1:03
Speaker 3: because you'd been watching this show. You would have heard
1:06
Speaker 3: Jim Welsh sounding the clarion call that trouble was ahead.
1:11
Speaker 3: For the market, and you would have at least been prepared.
1:14
Speaker 3: Probably wouldn't have done anything like I didn't, but nonetheless
1:19
Speaker 3: at least you would have known. So Jim like, what
1:22
Speaker 3: was the real tip off here back earlier in the
1:26
Speaker 3: year that made you realize that the markets were headed lower?
1:30
Speaker 1: Well, there was a combination of things. First was the perception.
1:34
Speaker 1: And it's always great to join you, Carrie, and you're
1:36
Speaker 1: going to be posting a piece on your website that
1:39
Speaker 1: kind of covers some of the stuff that we're going
1:42
Speaker 1: to talk about in greater details. I just wanted to
1:44
Speaker 1: put that out there at the beginning. But at the
1:46
Speaker 1: beginning of the years, you remember, everyone was pretty bold
1:49
Speaker 1: up that President Trump was going to come in and
1:52
Speaker 1: make a good economy even better, and most people thought
1:56
Speaker 1: that in regards to tariffs, he was using the tariffs
2:01
Speaker 1: as a negotiation ploy and that he would quickly roll
2:04
Speaker 1: back as soon as he got some concessions. And Treasury
2:09
Speaker 1: Secretary Bessen gave a speech in early February, and after
2:13
Speaker 1: reading his comments, Carrie I came to the conclusion they
2:17
Speaker 1: weren't going to be backing down. They were serious about
2:20
Speaker 1: what they were going to do with the tariffs, the
2:24
Speaker 1: trade negotiations, and that meant that the market wasn't prepared
2:30
Speaker 1: for that event. And then technically what I had been
2:34
Speaker 1: writing in January and February was as the SMP was
2:38
Speaker 1: making new hides, the advanced Decline line was making a
2:42
Speaker 1: lower peak. In fact, that peaked in November twenty ninth,
2:46
Speaker 1: and historically Carrie actually going all the way back to
2:49
Speaker 1: nineteen twenty eight. Divergence is between new highs and a
2:53
Speaker 1: major average like the SMP or the Dow, whereas the
2:57
Speaker 1: AD line making a lower high, that pretty much warned
3:01
Speaker 1: of corrections. Now, if the reason to sell is minor,
3:05
Speaker 1: then the correction is usually five to ten percent, but
3:08
Speaker 1: the reason is somewhat more significant, and terrors fell into
3:12
Speaker 1: that category. Declines of ten to twenty percent or even
3:16
Speaker 1: bear markets showed up if indeed the economy ultimately went
3:19
Speaker 1: into a recession. So though all those are all the reasons,
3:23
Speaker 1: plus sentiment was really high and bullish in terms of
3:28
Speaker 1: allocation to equities, and you know, when you add all
3:32
Speaker 1: that off, it was the perfect cocktail, if you will,
3:35
Speaker 1: for the market to be disappointed and then be vulnerable
3:39
Speaker 1: to selling pressure, which is what we obviously saw especially
3:43
Speaker 1: during the month of April.
3:44
Speaker 3: All right, so we had the selling pressure, we had
3:47
Speaker 3: a pullback, wasn't it was dramatic, but it really wasn't
3:51
Speaker 3: that severe in terms of pullbacks, was it.
3:55
Speaker 1: Well, twenty percent is pretty meaningful, and in terms of
3:59
Speaker 1: the time impression, you know, that makes it even more meaningful.
4:03
Speaker 1: At the same time the SMP then you know, off
4:06
Speaker 1: that wall, I was expecting a rally and a couple
4:10
Speaker 1: of weeks ago targeted fifty seven hundred to fifty seven
4:13
Speaker 1: fifty for this rally, So you know the impact carry
4:17
Speaker 1: when you have a sharp decline that is then reversed
4:21
Speaker 1: relatively quickly. You know, the damage psychologically is obviously lessened.
4:27
Speaker 1: But i've you and I have talked about this. The
4:30
Speaker 1: bifurcation in the US economy is pretty extreme in the
4:33
Speaker 1: sense the bottom fifty percent of people have been under
4:37
Speaker 1: the gun from higher prices, higher cost of living, wages
4:41
Speaker 1: not keeping up. And that's the part why President Trump
4:45
Speaker 1: was elected. A lot of people who had never voted
4:48
Speaker 1: for a Republican decided to do so because they remembered
4:51
Speaker 1: back in twenty eighteen the economy was in better shape.
4:55
Speaker 1: They were in better shape. The top ten percent now
4:59
Speaker 1: account for fifty percent of consumer spending, so that has
5:04
Speaker 1: been buttressed by the stock market doing well. Housing prices
5:08
Speaker 1: gained fifty percent over the last four or five years.
5:12
Speaker 1: So when we see acid prices start to falter, I
5:16
Speaker 1: think that again is a warning that those at the
5:20
Speaker 1: top who have been really carrying the spending load will
5:24
Speaker 1: at some point in time start to become more cautious
5:27
Speaker 1: and pull back. So, you know, I believe that we're
5:30
Speaker 1: in a bear market and that the odds are we're
5:33
Speaker 1: going to see the S and P go back down
5:36
Speaker 1: to the loads that we saw on April seventh at
5:38
Speaker 1: forty eight thirty five. And you know, I just think
5:43
Speaker 1: that the repercussion from the terrafor the FED not doing anything,
5:48
Speaker 1: the economy's going to slow. We're going to see unemployments
5:51
Speaker 1: start to pick up. And you know, when you add
5:54
Speaker 1: all that up together, it's the stock market priced for
5:57
Speaker 1: all that. I don't think so.
6:01
Speaker 3: So you don't think the tariff war is ending quickly,
6:05
Speaker 3: I don't think so.
6:06
Speaker 1: Again, Normally it takes eighteen months to come up with
6:09
Speaker 1: a trade negotiated deal because they're an enormous amount of detail.
6:15
Speaker 1: So what that suggests is what's going to happen in
6:17
Speaker 1: the next few weeks is the administration will announce agreements
6:23
Speaker 1: and principle well which we've agreed to a trade deal,
6:26
Speaker 1: but now we're going to work out the details. And
6:28
Speaker 1: as we all know, in any legal document which a
6:31
Speaker 1: trade deal certainly qualifies, the devil is always in the details.
6:36
Speaker 1: So I just think that, you know what that means
6:38
Speaker 1: is down the road, there's hiccups that are going to happen.
6:42
Speaker 1: So I just don't think that unless the tariffs. Right
6:47
Speaker 1: now we're at a ten percent flat with obviously very
6:50
Speaker 1: high tariffs against China, right ten percent tariff is up
6:53
Speaker 1: from two percent. So if we even with the trade deals,
6:57
Speaker 1: if we stay at ten percent, that is a significant
7:00
Speaker 1: increase and the net result then I've written about this
7:03
Speaker 1: a lot over the last year. You know, in nineteen
7:06
Speaker 1: thirty Smooth Holly was passed and world trade dropped by
7:13
Speaker 1: sixty five percent because everybody else, you know, started to
7:17
Speaker 1: do the same thing. And we actually have seen carry
7:21
Speaker 1: over the last five years more and more trade barriers
7:24
Speaker 1: regulations being raised, not by just the US but globally.
7:30
Speaker 1: So the ground is set, unfortunately to almost repeat some
7:34
Speaker 1: of the experience of the nineteen thirties. Did you know
7:37
Speaker 1: tariff's calls the Great Depression? Know, but they made the
7:41
Speaker 1: global economy weaker than it otherwise would have been. And
7:45
Speaker 1: I think they made that weakness be deeper and last longer.
7:49
Speaker 1: So I'm not a big fan of terras. The longer
7:52
Speaker 1: they persist, I think that is problematic for the economy. Yeah.
7:56
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I'm a free trader myself, but when China,
8:05
Speaker 3: you know, basically weaponizes free trade, yep, then you got
8:10
Speaker 3: to do something that maybe isn't for the short term
8:13
Speaker 3: good of the country or the world, but it has
8:17
Speaker 3: to stop. And you know, I've been reading about this
8:20
Speaker 3: for decades already. They just ignore the wto, they ignore
8:25
Speaker 3: all the rules. So it's got to be done. And
8:29
Speaker 3: it's a big excrement sandwich. But we all got to
8:32
Speaker 3: think a bite.
8:33
Speaker 1: I've ever heard that expression? Yeah, well, I agree with you.
8:37
Speaker 1: To me, it all comes down to the manner in
8:40
Speaker 1: which it's being done, you know, basically starting with a
8:44
Speaker 1: punch to the jaw as opposed to you got thirty
8:47
Speaker 1: days to come to the table and come up with
8:50
Speaker 1: an agreement in principle to work out our trade difficence
8:53
Speaker 1: and if you don't, this is what we're going to do.
8:57
Speaker 1: So I agree entirely that since joining the World Trade
9:01
Speaker 1: Organization since two thousand and one, and we urged that
9:04
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton was very much in favor, both Democrats and
9:08
Speaker 1: Republicans voted for that to take place. But China has
9:13
Speaker 1: obviously capitalized on that and to the detriment and not
9:18
Speaker 1: just US, but other training partners around the world.
9:21
Speaker 3: Everyone nobody is happy with him, and especially after COVID,
9:25
Speaker 3: now that we have pretty good evidence that it came
9:29
Speaker 3: from a lab league there, even though the United States
9:32
Speaker 3: self funded, which is a story for another's dillionary.
9:37
Speaker 1: But you know, enough is.
9:40
Speaker 3: Enough already, Yeah, and you know it had to end,
9:44
Speaker 3: and yeah, maybe there is a better way to do it.
9:47
Speaker 3: But the difference is that you know, Trump knows g
9:54
Speaker 3: and he worked on this before. And we're not even
9:58
Speaker 3: mentioning the fentanyl, which for China is revenge for the
10:02
Speaker 3: opium wars, you know.
10:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, well no, again, all this is warranted. It
10:08
Speaker 1: just comes down to the manner which they're doing it.
10:11
Speaker 1: At the same time, I think President Trump and his
10:13
Speaker 1: administration to understand the clock is ticking. The midterm elections
10:18
Speaker 1: are what eighteen twenty months away or something, you know,
10:21
Speaker 1: not that far off, So they need to accomplish an
10:24
Speaker 1: awful lot very very quickly, so that whatever fallout and
10:28
Speaker 1: damage does happen, there's still a window of time where
10:32
Speaker 1: the economy can recover and show improvement going into the
10:37
Speaker 1: midterm elections.
10:38
Speaker 3: I totlly agree with you, Well, what about DOGE Now
10:42
Speaker 3: that initially has a deflationary effect because all this money,
10:47
Speaker 3: all the grifters aren't getting paid now, right, so they're
10:52
Speaker 3: in a recession. And then the federal employees, who you know,
10:58
Speaker 3: basically I always say a federal worker government worker is
11:03
Speaker 3: a bit of an oxy moron. But you know, there's
11:08
Speaker 3: a lot of them that are hitting the bricks, and
11:12
Speaker 3: you know, in the long run that is the best thing,
11:14
Speaker 3: because they're total parasites and unproductive and destructive, going against
11:21
Speaker 3: the country's best interest.
11:23
Speaker 1: Right, yeah again. A year ago, in April last year,
11:27
Speaker 1: the General Accountability Office, which was started in nineteen twenty
11:31
Speaker 1: one nonpartisan entity, came out with report carry and said
11:36
Speaker 1: somewhere between two hundred and thirty billion, hundred and five
11:40
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty billion of waste and fraud is happening
11:43
Speaker 1: every single year. President Biden did not do anything. And
11:48
Speaker 1: the fact that Elon Musk Indulge are going after a
11:52
Speaker 1: problem that was identified by a non partisan entity, to me,
11:58
Speaker 1: should tell anyone who's objective everything we need to know.
12:03
Speaker 1: There is a lot of waste in fraud. And so
12:06
Speaker 1: I commend that because when you start saying, okay, oh,
12:09
Speaker 1: maybe they only found one hundred and fifty billion, I
12:11
Speaker 1: suspect it's going to war. But you multiplied that about
12:14
Speaker 1: ten years. Yeah, so far you know, one and a
12:17
Speaker 1: half trillion dollars. So it's very meaningful, and it does
12:22
Speaker 1: to send a message to government workers and maybe to
12:27
Speaker 1: politicians who supported some of this stuff and continue to
12:31
Speaker 1: support some of.
12:31
Speaker 3: The both sides of the aisle.
12:34
Speaker 1: Are police trouble here, right, no question, no question. So
12:40
Speaker 1: I you know, I support what Musk is doing. And
12:45
Speaker 1: you know, sometimes the louder people squeal at something tells
12:48
Speaker 1: you something about those people.
12:50
Speaker 3: Pigs always squeal, Jim, you know, when they're being led
12:54
Speaker 3: off the slaughter. And how could any thinking politician, any
13:01
Speaker 3: any citizen of the country have any issue with what's
13:04
Speaker 3: being done there. They're finding, you know, billions and billions
13:09
Speaker 3: and they haven't even hit their strudge yet. I mean
13:12
Speaker 3: only get that he's only been there one hundred days,
13:15
Speaker 3: so that maybe will be his greatest contribution this time
13:19
Speaker 3: around that he put an end to it and said
13:22
Speaker 3: no mos right.
13:23
Speaker 1: Right right, And you know what I mean. Last time
13:25
Speaker 1: we've spoken before that you know, Besson has said the
13:29
Speaker 1: goal is to get the deficit from over six percent
13:31
Speaker 1: of GDP, which it was last year and the year before.
13:35
Speaker 1: Has never happened in the history of our country where
13:39
Speaker 1: you had a six percent plus on deficit during a
13:43
Speaker 1: time when the economy's gone to and a half percent
13:45
Speaker 1: and peace and peace piece at least. Yeah, not so.
13:49
Speaker 1: But when you go from three six percent to three,
13:52
Speaker 1: that's shaving a trillion dollars worth of government spending. So
13:54
Speaker 1: as you said at the very beginning, was well, when
13:58
Speaker 1: you cut back on spending, it does have deflationary effects
14:02
Speaker 1: because the economy is going to grow more slowly when
14:06
Speaker 1: you eliminate that kind of spending. So you know, again,
14:11
Speaker 1: I think the economy is going to slow more than
14:14
Speaker 1: maybe people expect. The other issue regarding everything that's going
14:18
Speaker 1: on is uncertainty. So there was a survey of CEOs
14:21
Speaker 1: over the last few months and in January carry sixty percent.
14:26
Speaker 1: We're expecting to increase investment capital spending, We're expected to
14:33
Speaker 1: add more hires and bring more people on work. In
14:37
Speaker 1: March or part of the April survey, those were cut
14:40
Speaker 1: in half. Like now it's thirty percent. So you have
14:43
Speaker 1: a lot of people sitting on their hands, which again
14:45
Speaker 1: isn't great for economic growth. And potentially, you know, if
14:49
Speaker 1: everything gets resolved quickly, then some of that will come
14:52
Speaker 1: on board. But those are all the reasons why again
14:56
Speaker 1: I think the economy is going to slow. And the
14:57
Speaker 1: one thing I want to touch on real quick. You know,
15:00
Speaker 1: the employment report came out and everybody, well, look at
15:02
Speaker 1: that one hundred and seventy seven thousand jobs rush. It
15:05
Speaker 1: was a decent number, Okay, they actually there was I
15:08
Speaker 1: think a reduction of seven thousand government workers. So as
15:12
Speaker 1: opposed the last twenty months or so, were they all go,
15:15
Speaker 1: I don't know, they're walking the brick somewhere. But my
15:18
Speaker 1: point is underneath the surface, if you look at the
15:21
Speaker 1: weekly claims report, the length of time that people are
15:26
Speaker 1: on employment has continued to increase. So what does that
15:29
Speaker 1: tell us is that companies aren't laying people off, but
15:33
Speaker 1: they have in fact, as that CEO service yes all right,
15:38
Speaker 1: and also continuing claims is up over one point nine million,
15:45
Speaker 1: So it's just validating. What we're seeing is that slowly
15:49
Speaker 1: but surely the labor market is weakening, and if the
15:52
Speaker 1: economy slows, the next shooter drop will be companies laying
15:55
Speaker 1: off workers. Unfortunately, the unemployment rate is a lagging in
16:00
Speaker 1: the care and the FED is kind of like stuck. Well,
16:04
Speaker 1: we're going to probably see higher prices at least for
16:06
Speaker 1: some period of time from the tariffs, but we're waiting
16:09
Speaker 1: on the unemployment rate to tick up, which I think
16:12
Speaker 1: it will, and they said in the March Summary of
16:17
Speaker 1: Economic Projections that they think the unemployment rate will get
16:21
Speaker 1: up to four to four by the end of this year.
16:23
Speaker 1: In April was four to two. So the point I've
16:26
Speaker 1: been making is, yes, the FED is going to be
16:27
Speaker 1: paying attention to inflation, they're going to pay more attention
16:30
Speaker 1: to the unemployment rate, and if it gets above four
16:33
Speaker 1: to four, then I think the FED will feel much
16:37
Speaker 1: more comfortable in moving to cut rates because it'll be
16:42
Speaker 1: clear that it's warranted. And not because President Trump criticized Paul,
16:48
Speaker 1: but that economic data has shown them that Yep, it's
16:52
Speaker 1: time to cut. So I think that's what's coming. It's
16:55
Speaker 1: just a question of how soon is it going to arrive.
16:58
Speaker 3: Well, my guess is when you're dealing with Jerome Powell,
17:03
Speaker 3: he's always late to the party, right.
17:06
Speaker 1: Well, that historically has been not just Powell, but almost
17:08
Speaker 1: every FED president because they do wait for the unemployment
17:11
Speaker 1: rate to tick higher and again by the time companies
17:14
Speaker 1: are laying workers off, because that's the other reason, you know,
17:17
Speaker 1: already too late. It's already too late. I mean, employers
17:20
Speaker 1: will resist laying people off, the cut hours to do
17:23
Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff because they don't want to let
17:26
Speaker 1: an experienced workers leave and go especially So yeah, so
17:30
Speaker 1: by the time it's like, I don't know the choice,
17:32
Speaker 1: I got to let some people go. The economy obviously
17:35
Speaker 1: already is weakening, their sales are dropping. They have to
17:39
Speaker 1: do it. So, by its nature, monetary policy is conducted
17:43
Speaker 1: by looking through the rear view mirror of our car.
17:46
Speaker 1: And by the time the cars over the cliff, the
17:49
Speaker 1: Feds say, oh my god, we're over the cliff. We
17:51
Speaker 1: better cut rights. So they're always late.
17:53
Speaker 3: They're like Jimmy James Dean in Rebel without a Cause
17:58
Speaker 3: right where they're having that little game.
18:00
Speaker 1: Is to see who's caress.
18:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, who can jump out of the car foot first?
18:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, well the last guy to go win. Yeah, unforsutly
18:09
Speaker 1: that guy was the last guy, excepted it.
18:12
Speaker 3: Might be oriental, he wins.
18:16
Speaker 1: I think as it. Yeah, it's a great scene. It's
18:18
Speaker 1: really great scene.
18:19
Speaker 3: So that's like something the Federal Reserve. Well, we always
18:24
Speaker 3: date ourselves, you know that.
18:26
Speaker 1: People have to look at the screen.
18:28
Speaker 3: Experience is always about dating yourself. Yes, it's not our
18:32
Speaker 3: first rodeo here, Jim, right.
18:34
Speaker 1: No, it isn't. And we have the bumps and bruises
18:36
Speaker 1: to prove it.
18:38
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, and the uh and the higher insurance premiums
18:43
Speaker 3: as well.
18:44
Speaker 1: So I yes, yeah, so all right.
18:48
Speaker 3: So but the market, the market's going to take a hit,
18:51
Speaker 3: but then it's going to it's a leading indicator. It's
18:54
Speaker 3: going to see that uh, you know, it's going to
18:57
Speaker 3: look ahead eighteen months.
18:58
Speaker 1: Right. Well, here's the thing. People always say the market's
19:01
Speaker 1: a discounting mechanism, that it's looking ahead, and yes, it
19:05
Speaker 1: does do that, but the reality is it often at
19:08
Speaker 1: important junctures gets it wrong. I mean we just saw
19:11
Speaker 1: one in January. People were looking ahead. Trump is going
19:14
Speaker 1: to make the economy better. Oh yeah, tariffs are going
19:17
Speaker 1: to make the dollar go up. And what happened. The
19:20
Speaker 1: dollar dropped ten percent in a very quick period of time.
19:24
Speaker 1: The SMB dropped by twenty percent. So for me, carry
19:27
Speaker 1: the idea that markets somehow have more greater or greater
19:32
Speaker 1: vision in knowledge than we do, I think it's a joke,
19:37
Speaker 1: because that's why contrary opinion, my view is a much
19:42
Speaker 1: more powerful thing. So when everyone was bullisht a dollar
19:45
Speaker 1: in January, I'm looking at charts and just common sense saying, no,
19:49
Speaker 1: I think the dollar is ready to drop below one hundred.
19:52
Speaker 1: It was that one ten. Oh the market, Oh yeah,
19:54
Speaker 1: everybody's bulled up on the market. I think Trump is
19:58
Speaker 1: serious about the tariffs. They're not not expecting that that
20:01
Speaker 1: gives them more reason to sell. So right now, the
20:04
Speaker 1: market I think is still of the mind that we
20:06
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about a recession. I mean, the
20:09
Speaker 1: risks are up a little bit, but you know, things
20:11
Speaker 1: are all going to work out. Deals are going to
20:13
Speaker 1: be made, and everything's going to be copro setic. I'm
20:18
Speaker 1: just not in that camp. I just think it's time
20:20
Speaker 1: to be a little bit more skeptical of let's buy
20:23
Speaker 1: every dip and it's going to be you know, Nirvana.
20:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know the miracle is central planning.
20:30
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, miracle with a small M.
20:35
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, because we've been down this road before, we knew,
20:40
Speaker 3: we totally knew.
20:41
Speaker 1: Yep. Yeah. And so one thing you touch on and
20:44
Speaker 1: again you're going to be posting as peasy to sent you.
20:48
Speaker 1: But one of the talking about the last two three
20:51
Speaker 1: weeks is positioning in the Dollar index has gotten very extreme.
20:56
Speaker 1: In other words, it's just dropped ten percent and people
20:58
Speaker 1: are going short the dollar long other currencies, anticipation that
21:03
Speaker 1: is going to keep going, and the level of bearish
21:06
Speaker 1: positioning Carrie is more extreme now than it was in
21:11
Speaker 1: October of twenty twenty three, and any other intermediate bottom
21:16
Speaker 1: over the last year or so that the dollar has made. Plus,
21:22
Speaker 1: the chart pattern as I described in that piece suggests
21:26
Speaker 1: that after the dollar peaked at one fourteen seventy in
21:30
Speaker 1: October of twenty twenty two, it went through a big
21:34
Speaker 1: sideways type of correction down to one ten or one
21:37
Speaker 1: hundred part meeting ninety nine up to one oh seven
21:42
Speaker 1: down to ninety nine up to one ten. I think
21:44
Speaker 1: it's completed this correction from that high in October of
21:48
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. There may be one more dip below
21:52
Speaker 1: the low recently of ninety seven to ninety two, but
21:56
Speaker 1: beyond that, I think the dollar is going to surprise
21:58
Speaker 1: people carry in rap more.
22:01
Speaker 3: I agree with you one hundred percent. Uh, you know,
22:05
Speaker 3: I'm just expecting it because it's right now hitting resistance.
22:08
Speaker 3: That one hundred is yeah, massive resistance.
22:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was support so it makes sense that it's
22:15
Speaker 1: overhead resistance. And so again the chart pens suggests it
22:19
Speaker 1: could have one more drop because the RSI got extraordinarily
22:25
Speaker 1: over sold when it dropped to that ninety seven ninety
22:28
Speaker 1: two was down to like twenty one, So it wouldn't
22:31
Speaker 1: you know, that's another reason why you get a bounce
22:33
Speaker 1: to relieve how oversold it is, then go down, take
22:36
Speaker 1: a make a lower low, and then register a higher
22:40
Speaker 1: r side level, which then provides you know, a momentum
22:43
Speaker 1: non confirmation, which in this case is supportive of the bottom.
22:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, short short covering rally.
22:50
Speaker 1: And that's how it all readys starts. You know, when
22:52
Speaker 1: you have a lot of people betting against something and
22:54
Speaker 1: they're short. The initial rally is maybe it's not going
22:57
Speaker 1: to go down as much as we thought one hund percent?
23:00
Speaker 3: Right always, ohways the case?
23:03
Speaker 1: All right? Yeah? Yeah. Link.
23:05
Speaker 3: The link is in the show notes this interview on
23:08
Speaker 3: Financial Survival Network and in the show notes on the
23:11
Speaker 3: podcast everything else on YouTube. It'll be hooked into my dropbox.
23:17
Speaker 3: Just tell tell everyone out there, Jim, how you how
23:21
Speaker 3: you subscribe and what the deal is?
23:24
Speaker 1: Okay, okay? One of that's comment. If I'm right about
23:26
Speaker 1: the dollar of you two or write about the dollar,
23:28
Speaker 1: I don't think that's a positive for gold. So I
23:31
Speaker 1: think gold has a pullback at least to thirty one hundred.
23:35
Speaker 1: I think it possibly could get down towards twenty six hundred.
23:38
Speaker 1: So that's you know again, remember in September October of
23:42
Speaker 1: twenty two, gold bottom that sixteen hundred as the dollar
23:45
Speaker 1: was topping. So remember it's yan yang I think is important.
23:48
Speaker 1: All right, macrotides dot com. If you would like a
23:51
Speaker 1: recent publication, Jim Welsh macro at gmail, I'm happy to
23:56
Speaker 1: send out like the May issue of macro Tides or
24:01
Speaker 1: one of my recent which I publish every Monday, weekly
24:04
Speaker 1: technical reviews.
24:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, excellent. Hey you got a question for
24:09
Speaker 3: Jim or myself, shoot me an email kl at Carrie
24:12
Speaker 3: LUTs dot com. We answer everything. Jim, appreciate you coming on,
24:16
Speaker 3: been a while, and we'll talk to you again real soon.
24:18
Speaker 1: You got it, Thanks, Carrie, stay well.
24:20
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
24:24
Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
24:28
Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,