Latest / Best of the NFL Podcast Network / Week 15 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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Week 15 Picks with Cynthia Frelund · Best of the NFL Podcast Network

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where sometimes our computer model breaks
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: our heart. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westling
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freelan.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Do you get what I'm getting at here?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Yes, I know exactly what you're getting Right off the bat,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I've looked at your computer model for the week. Yeah,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: this is the show every week where we make three
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: picks against the spread. I hope it's not one of
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: your three picks against the spread, but you do pick
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: every game. The model picks every game against the spread.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: And I saw that your model not only takes the
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills to cover against your Detroit Lions, you have
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: the Bills winning out right in the game of the year.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I don't really have a lot to say about
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: that other than I hate it. I hate myself. It
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: makes me crazy. I mean, I guess on some level
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: then I don't lose in this game, but I also
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: don't win. You know what I'm saying.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: No, you win if the Lions win. I think lose
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: if the Lions lose. Knowing you, you don't really care
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: that your model gets no wrong.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: To be fair, when I look at the like, I
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: pick it and it's based on a whole bunch of stats,
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: and sometimes I'm like, what on earth is so.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: This is happens?
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: This is kind of the nightmare with AI. The the
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: computers have taken over like they are sentient, the fact
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: that they're picking the Bills over the lines. Actually, what
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: are the kind of the underlying reasons, because I am
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: quite surprised by that that on the road, your model,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: looking at all the numbers, has the Bills as a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: better team, because by a lot of numbers, the Lions
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: are one of the best teams we've ever seen. So
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: this is not going to be either one of our
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: three picks, but it is such a fascinating game. I
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: am curious, like, are there any specific underlying reasons why
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: you have the Bills winning well?
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: Number one, and first and foremost, the injury report for
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: the Lions defense. I mean, when you have the twenty
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: nineteen Pro Bowl team playing linebacker, things get a little
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: dicey when you're facing Josh Allen. Uh. Yeah, that's the
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: first reason. And even if they get some of the
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: defensive lineman back, that's still a bad part of the
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: defense to be banged up in and those are guys,
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: I mean Alex Angeloni is not coming through that door.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: He's linebackers will not be healthy this week.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: So that's no, we know that, and I don't know
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: about as we sit here right now, we don't have
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: a confirmation that other guys like Zach Pascal, who else
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: we're talking about, Aleeen McNeil, We don't know. Maybe they're
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: I think we don't think he's on Zerike is playing right?
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: And then is Taylor Decker.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Going to be bad? Looks like it full practice.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: Yes, as a Lions fan, all the crosses.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Okay, so the linebacker position, yeah, is a.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: Big But the reality is is the things that the
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: Lions like to do. Josh Allen is really great at
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: the Lion's paill out of man. Guess what Josh Allen
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: does to me? Eighteen touchdowns, three interceptions. The Lions don't
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: get a lot of pressure. Well, you could argue that
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: the Bills could be tired based on the track meet
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: they played with the Rams last week. They were in
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: hurry up basically all of the second half. That's a
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: lot of snaps. I mean they did only play fifty
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: four total snaps. That's about normal for them, but they
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: were all hurry up snaps. That's wild. However, the lines
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: aren't bringing a lot of pressure. They're still having their
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: leading sack guy be Aiden Hutchinson, who hasn't played in
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: like a bajillion week. So the fact is is that's
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: the areas where things kind of deplete. If you're talking
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: about fatigue. I don't know that's where that's where the model.
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: Ok okay, that's where the model stands. Bill's sneaking out.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: That gonna pressure in the quarnerback either, which would worry
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: me for a Bills fan heading into this game. I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: like offense, I like a lot of points. I like
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: agreed the over. I don't have a hot, you know,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: strong feeling. But I am just not going to pick
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: against the Lions this year. Certain I don't want to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: pick again. I want to pick, I'm not, but that
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: is not one of my three picks now this week.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: This week, let's look at the standings from last week.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: We got back on the winning track. Both you and
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I went to and one. All right, you're two games
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: back on the season, but we're we're both clear over
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: five hundred yep, and we're feeling good. Let's go to
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: our picks this week. I have to admit, and I
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: don't know why this happened. For the first time all season,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: I struggled to get to three games.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: I just didn't.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Usually I have ones just screaming at him. I gotta
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: take them, love them, and then I have extras and
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I you know, I just I have so many. This
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: one I struggled to get past like one or two.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna have you start.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: Okay, well, I'm gonna go ahead and take Denver. And
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: I think, Denver, what are you looking at me? Because no, no,
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: that was that one of yours?
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: No?
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: Oh good, Well that's kind of good. They are four
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: point favorites at home. I like that number compared to
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: some of the other numbers this week. Of course, I'd
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: like a narrower gap. Three would be more fun, but
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: whatever four will will be fine in this matchup. I
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: think what I'm looking at from Indianapolis is a the
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: things that this Denver defense is absolutely exceptional at. They're
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: really really strong against on the defensive side. And even
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: if Riley Moss doesn't play, and he's a really big
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: fan like he's been in a really excellent part of
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: that secondary, it kind of doesn't matter because I'm not
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: so worried about what Anthony Richardson's going to do on
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: the types of passes that don't go to Patrick's ortan
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: or they can't figure out. Plus they've had a week
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: of rest. I think the middle of that defense is terrifying.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: That's where Anthony Richardson likes to run. I just don't
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: think this is a great matchup for what we've seen from.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Ar Okay, I like it. I gotta be better about
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: a poker face.
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: So yeah.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Colleen Wolfe has talked about this that it was an
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: adjustment period when she used to do the Around the
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: NFL podcast and then she realized that's just resting Greg face,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: got it. You know, it's just I struggled to hide
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: my emotion that look like a mat at the person
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: or something. In this particular case. The reason why I
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: maybe made a face, it's not you know, you never
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: know what it is, right, It's not about you or
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: your pick. It actually is because I'm like, I agree
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: with you. I have the Broncos covering. They're not one
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: of my three. It's more that I've made the Broncos
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: fan base so angry this week by not having bow
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Nicks in my top five Offensive Rookie of the Year.
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: I did see it.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: It's just it's just going, It just keeps going. I
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: don't have my mentions on on Twitter anyways. I'm not
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: really checking in too often. They're more of a blue
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Sky guy these days. But there is a human part
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: of me that would like to see them lose this game.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: Yes, got it? Well that yeah, as long as it's
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: not As long as that look isn't directed at me
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: or my math, we're good.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: And yeah, we do a show together that everyone can
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: check out on YouTube as well, where it'll say Week
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: fifteen picks from the NFL, but it's on NFL Network
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: NFL Game Debut, and I have the Broncos covering as well,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: because I just think they're a better team on both
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: sides of the ball. If you tell me that your
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: team is going to protect your quarterback better and it's
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: going to get more pass rush than the other team
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: on a like on an every week basis, and almost
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: certainly in this matchup, then like I'm just going to
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: take you to win probably, And they're they're better coach,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I believe overall.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: John Payton versus Gus Bradley not that even.
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but Also, I thought it was very smart they
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: resigned Garatt Bulls right now. Just so everyone's clear, I've
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: already started some draft prep. This is not a good
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: offensive line draft class. There are like two that are
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: Day one starters after that, Slim Pickens and Good. No,
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: that is a smart thing for them to lock down
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: right now so they have flexibility come draft time. They
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: don't need to reach to try to because there's a
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: ton of teams that need offensive line help.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes, New England Patriots.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: A lot of teams, a lot of teams.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: They signed Quinn Minors their guard before the start of
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the season. That's what Sean Payton tell me, Tom, Tom,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: spend big look at Cynthia.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: She's such a helpful pro.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: She's putting some news into the program that would no
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: longer that would not have been there. Yes, Garrett Bull's
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: getting a nice new deal from the Broncos. Okay, so
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: the one pick that I did like right away was
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Viking's minus six point five.
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: I'm on that with you, all over that with you.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: When I look at division games, especially when they're playing
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: twice in a short period.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: Maybe this is.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Stupid, but there's probably no scientific backing to that this
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: at all, but I really feel it in my bones,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and the two teams are not even, and we can say,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: just look at the records, they're not even in one
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: of those two games. In a division matchup, especially when
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: they're playing close, usually the bad team is gonna it's
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: gonna cover, It might win the game outright, and it
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: evens out and then then the other one what you
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: expect is gonna happen, is gonna happen. So I always
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: picked games off of that. It was why partly I
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: had the Steelers covering last week. I felt great about
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: that number against the Browns. I was like, they just
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: lost to the Browns. Good coaching staff. Now they're going
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: back home. Are not gonna lose two straight to the Browns.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I actually think they'll They'll play a very solid game,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: win comfortably. That was one of my two two wins
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: last week. Very similar situation. The Vikings and the Bears
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: just played. It was a three point game, it was
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: in Chicago. It was probably Campball Williams's best games of
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: the season. Then you look at the defense for the Bears,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: which has been getting worse and worse and worse all year,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: and then you take matt Abrafleus out of the picture.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying last week they looked as bad as
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: they have ever looked, and frankly, they weren't that good before.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: They're not getting a consistent pass rush, just personnel wise
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: up front, and I think the Vikings will be able
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: to protect Sam Darnold. And yes, I actually think they
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: missed matt Abraflus on the defensive side, because now you
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: got Thomas Brown's been promoted so many times, you're running
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: out a you know, offensive guys to run everything, and
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: now on the defensive side, he took out ebra Flus.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: You've been picking up these guys for Eberflus's defense for years.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I just think the Vikings are humming right now, and
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I would put their over under on their points at
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: about thirty one, and I just don't think the Bears
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: can keep up in a shootout like that.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: I'm with you. You need to teach Thomas Brown about
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: the poker face, because I watch his pressers and he's
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: just mad, really big mad in them, and I'm like,
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to tell you. What did you
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: think we're getting into? Plus DeAndre Swift has been on
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: the injury report. It's not like they're getting could push
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: from their run game anyways. So, yikes, this is a
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: team that has allowed so like tons of sacks all
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: of the unblocked pressures, and the Vikings bring the heat.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: And they did a pretty good job against a couple
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago.
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: But that is I think fifty fourths. I know it's
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: the most sacks, but I think it's fifty four.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: That's That's a bigger reason why I like the Vikings
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: better because this coaching staff, who has all the stability
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: in the world. Okay, what did they do to us
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: last time? Let's fix it. They will fix it, all right.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: What's your second pick?
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: I know you're on the other side of this one.
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: Let's be spicy Tampa Bay. Okay, let's do it Tampa now.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Not them.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Only am I on the other side in terms of
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I just disagree. We're going to go head to head four,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: we're man versus model. This is going to be one
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: of my picks.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: Wow, Okay, so it's three points, Yes, that's what I'm seeing.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: Is that what you're seeing anyways? Two and a half okay,
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: two and a half, three whatever, that's it's okay.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: I like it.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: Both. When I'm looking at the opportunity here, I'm very
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: worried about the injury report for the Chargers. I'm not
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: sure if Lad McConkie is good to go.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: JK.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: Dobbins is justin Herbert Okay. I mean he maybe didn't
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: go off in an air cast like other people, but
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: he does not look like he was completely healthy. That
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: scares me. That scares me in large part because when
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at Baker Mayfield's ability to withstand pressure, his
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: O line has really been helping him out past couple
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: of weeks. He's been like not even hit at a
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: high rate at all, and that's been very helpful. Plus,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: they are trying to get Mike Evans that one thousand
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: yard mark for the eleventh straight season. He's four hundred
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: and ten yards away. Just needs a measly one oh
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: two point five per game. Okay, But ultimately I think
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: that is where one of the mismatches lies. And I'm
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: worried about the running backs. But they still have Rashad
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: White even if Bucky Irving isn't good to go, and
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: they've been getting a lot of good push on the inside,
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: where recently has been a vulnerable spot. Of the Chargers defense.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, those are all good arguments.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: The Chargers offensive line a little weak on the inside too,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: and you could see Vita Vea and Klasure Canty having
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: They have some.
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: Of the best names, like Vita Vea Klaijah Canty. There's fun.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: You do make me a little worried about the Herbert
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: factor now, obviously, if Herbert's status is at all in question,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I'm flying away from this picking.
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: I thought you were going to say something very non
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: PG there for a second half. I'm flying away.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I'm getting out of here, and I have to come
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: up with a backup pick. But I assume he finished
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: that game out. He's justin Herbert. I assume he's gonna.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: I assume he's gonna play. But does that mean he's okay?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: That is a worry. He has an ankle injury. He
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: played through it well in Kansas City. Won't be as
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: cold in this situation.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: He will be in the.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: Maybe so, but maybe the coldness was like ice, you know,
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: kept it the swelling under control.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: I just think the Chargers are a better team overall.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: I think they're better coached. Sorry, Todd Bowles.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I think their quarterback is such a difference maker compared
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: to Baker. I feel like Baker has been getting away
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: with it. Of course he had last month of the season.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: He can't keep getting away with it, bad decisions, interceptions, fumbles.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Everyone had this idea because you look at the total
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: yards and touchdowns for the season, that he's having this
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: great season. He's having now about the season that you
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: would expect. But if you look at just the last month,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: which has been against bad defenses for the most part,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: he's not seeing the field well, He's not making good decisions.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: And so that alone against this Chargers defense coming off
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: a loss, and there is something just emotionally. When I
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: saw Jim Harbaugh on the podium after that game and
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: he was so mad and so miserable, and it was
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: just talking about how he can't wait for them to respond,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I was like, Oh, they're gonna win next week.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: So that's also part of it. I'm stupid.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: And see the reports are that there's a good chance
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: lad Mconkee comes back. It sounds like he's going to
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: be practicing. He is integral to what they are trying
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: to do. But I do like how they were able
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: to run the ball late against Kansas City, so Ultimately,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: I'm just doing it on recent form. Even though I've
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: been on the Bucks all year. I picked them to
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: win the NFC, so still think they still will. Of course,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: I actually think they're playing worriesome football on the offensive
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: side lately. So I like the Chargers in this game
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: just on recent form. Okay, we're up against each other.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we've done that all year because
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: we've been trying to give.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: Our Yeah, but I feel like next week you're gonna
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: be like, yeah, but he was hurt, Like I mean,
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: That's like I'm know. I just just making this decision.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Minus two and a half is what I see. I'm
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: making it no matter what happens. Now, if he misses
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: the game entirely, I'm giving a backup pick. But perfect
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: right now, Okay, I like it. I'm going Washington, as
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: my dad says, touchdown. Yeah, I like that, wash over
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: New Orleans. Yeah, that's pretty good. I have a ten
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: point win for them.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: What I like. My models don't love double digits. It's
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: just very hard to do in terms of how models work.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: And so when you get I have two double digit
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: wins this week by two different teams, which is that's wild.
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: Minnesota is the other one, just so you know. But
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at the opportunity for Washington against New Orleans
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: with who's playing let's make a list. I mean, that's
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: probably easier. There's just a lot of a lot of
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: missing pieces on this New Orleans offense and defense. So
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: Marshaun Lattimore revenge just kidding, Yeah, No, that's a good one,
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: Like he's probably gonna play, which increases the opportunity to
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: stop the pass. The guy leads the league and passes
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: defense since he became an NFL pro twenty seventeen, So
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: that's great. But you know, I also think that you know,
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: Jaden Daniels now has a moment to regroup after the
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: start of the season. You know, they had their buy
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: their fift Kingsbury people are like, oh, does this numbers
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: all go down? Well, this is a defense where it
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: doesn't matter if Cliff Kingsbury's tendencies are that he kind
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: of shows everyone everything too early. I don't think this
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: defense has enough juice to kind of stop the multiple
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: threats that are Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, who presumably fully
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: healthy now, so you know those are the two.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: I like that.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on that one. I do think
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: that's a Latimer revenge game. It's kind of funny though,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: like who does even cover on on the Saints, like
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Kevin Austen, Like it's crazy how deep into their depth
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: chart there are Marcus Valdez scanting certainly, although that might
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: not be the best, you know, just a pure burner
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: against a guy coming off a hamstring injury. But they're
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: coming off to buy, they're rested, they're more talented, and
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the most important thing is yeah, it's either Jay Hayne
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: or or Spencer Rattler at quarterback. They're competing supposedly at practice,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: which is never a great sign before a regular season game,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: So that one makes all the sense in the world
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: to me.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: In fact, that'll be my backup pick. So if you
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: actually care about.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: These things, and since we do keep track of the records,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: if Justin Herbert does not play, I'll go just go
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: with you on Washington minus seven. My final pick, which
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: I'm guessing is your third double digit score of the week,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: is I went through all the games. I just didn't
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: have a lot of hot like picks against the spread,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: like Bengals okay in Tennessee. I like the Ravens minus
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: sixteen and a half wherever they're at, Like, I kind
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: of love it. It's against Tommy DeVito, who was the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: quarterback the last time there was a spread this high
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. On game deyview I with a straight face,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: I was like, how is this game gonna go? I
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: put Ravens forty four Giants six. So that's the type
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: of game I think it is. I think the Ravens
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: needed that buy worse than any team in the entire NFL.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: They were just tired. They've been in big game after
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: big game after big game after big game. Why are
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: you laughing? Forty four to six? Yes, I mean it
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: is silly to take up minus sixteen and a half,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: but that's that's why they made the numbers so high.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: The reason I really want to take it, though, is
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: I really think their defense was coming around before before
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: the bye. So you got an improved pass rush and
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: an improved secondary against Tommy DeVito and there's no one
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: healthy on this offensive line. Their backups as backups as
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: backups are hurt. Let's go Ravens forty four to six.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: They cover sixty and a half easy.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: If it's either total here as forty three, right, sure,
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: I love the over for that, love the over, love it.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: The Ravens are one of the best offenses I've ever seen,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: and it's against This isn't one of the worst defenses
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: I've ever seen. It's not even a bottom five defense
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: this year. It's probably like twenty third. So it's one
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: of the best offenses against a bad defense and what
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I would say is the worst offense in the league
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: right now against an improving defense. And it's a team
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: that's rested and what needs to win wants to win.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: The atmosphere is going to be terrible in the metalwlands
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: like that. It's going to be Ravens fans and booing
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Giants fans. So I take it back. Forget about not
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: liking picks this week, but I just talked myself into this.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: This was the one I had to search for. But
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: now I like it a lot. It's actually it's actually
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: the Chargers you made me worried about. But I feel
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: great about Ravens and Vikings.
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm with you that. I mean I have
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: a thirteen point win for the Ravens.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: I get it. Though your model it's model.
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: The problem. The problem when you model things is that
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: it's very rare for a projection pre game to be
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: that it just doesn't happen very often because you know,
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: teams will rest, teams will like maybe Derek Henery isn't
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: playing in the second half. Like there's just some things
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: that happen when when teams get up big this late
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: in the season that are at they throw a little
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: monkey wrench in there.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: They're gonna want to get the MVP for Lamar Jackson.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not like Rashota, and yet it happens all the time.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: For instance, like I'm just looking at last week. No, no,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not looking at the results.
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at the like you remember ahead of the games, right,
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: Like it's it's rare to have. It's rare for me
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: to have a thirteen point win projective for anyone.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: My point is like there are a couple of big
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: time blowouts every week.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: For forty nine Ers Bears.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Was one last week in the end, Vikings would have
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: covered a sixteen point spread against the Falcons, you know
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago it was harder to find.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: But like Commander's Titans, that's a big time blowout like
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: sure Bill's forty nine ers. These things happen, and I
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: think this is where it's gonna happen. They go this
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: week like a THEA.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: You've done it again.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: You know it's it's all you? You you are my friend.
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: Wait before we leave here, Yeah, how do you feel
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: about your old coach going down to UNC? Are you
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: now tar Hill blue? Did you go buy some like
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: our guy? I'll tar Hio blue stuff? Are you like
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: a Michael Jordan lover? Now?
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I am excited about it, just as a football fan.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I wanted him out of the media and back on
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: the sideline as almost as badly as he did, because
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: I got the sense he wasn't really putting his all
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: into the media game, and I was a little disappointed
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: by that.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: But he's born to be a coach.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I actually had on my friend Ali Connelly on the
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Thursday night football recap show he talked about because he
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: had broken this Bellot story and so it talked a
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: lot about it there, and.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Uh, I think it'll be cool.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be weird, and I just hope he is,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: like imagine as enough good players that and as enough
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: good offensive coaches that he can out scheme the hell
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: out of like Dabo Sweeney and whoever the hell else
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: is in the a CC.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: It'll be great.
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: I think he'll be g Can you imagine Bill going
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: to like someone's house being like, hello, come play for
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: my team.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to do a lot of that.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: You know, Dion has set up this new model.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: I get it, but like Van doesn't.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Go to anyone's house either, They come to him. That's
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: what I would come to Diana.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: I would come to Bill too, But like, can you
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: even imagine if that were like a thing you like,
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: come to your house like thank you for having me?
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: Do you want to? Like? I can't imagine having an
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: energy of like a Dobbels means like we'll get you this,
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: we'll get you that, and blah blah blah.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Nope.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: I think Bill will be like do your job next,
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: man up.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Okay, So I heard a comparison of like there's multiple
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Bills though, right, there's the Bill that you see in
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: front of the podium. There's Bill as a coach, but
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: then there's Nantucket Bill. You know I've seen him and
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: maybe you have huh wow, Kyle, my fiance, his family,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: lives in Nantucket in the summer. That's a that's a
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: podcast for another time. I want to hear what Nantucket.
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: Bill is like, super nice, nicest person.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Maybe you get a little bit of both because it's
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: like it's college. It's not quite as hard, it's not
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: quite as stressful as the NFL. Maybe you get a
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: little chiller kind of it's wearing his color, wearing his polos.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: None of a good job, UNC. None of us would
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: have been talking about North Carolina football. But and now
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: it's all I can read. Arthur Smith, this, Ben Johnson
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: bull like does it? How does this tar? He'll feel?
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: How does that target? But like mate? Good for them.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Lawrence Taylor one of the greatest Bill Belichick players ever,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: probably the greatest.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: Yes, well, I guess there was one other guy.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: He went to quarterback, but that one went to Michigan,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: you know, and he he was on offense, and Bill
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: doesn't really care about offense. That's the one thing I'm
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: a little worried about is that he finds the right
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: Matt Patricia. Smart guys that are.
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: Sure Matt Patricia will come in there and do the
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: offense just like you did for the Patriots. For you
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: last year.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Huh, I really will be a unc fan. I want to.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: I wanted to if I wanted to go well too.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: I think this will be a happier kindler Bill and
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: anyone Donaldson Like.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: Are you freaking kidding me? Like I wouldn't wait waiting
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: my whole life for this, and now like, are you
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: freaking kidding me?
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: How about?
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: How about if you're the coach of duke? Who is
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: the coach of Duke? It's no longer David Cutliffe anymore. No,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know who I should know this.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: This is great.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: It's Manny dsh oh oh okay, oh, Mario Cristobal, He's
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: going to be like facing sometimes. This will be This
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: will be a lot of fun. Uh, It's always fun
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: with Cynthia. We will be back next week and we
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: will be back on Sunday. The recap show, No byes.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: It's a big fifties Dame recap show with Patrick, Kevin
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Patrick coming at Chuck coming onto this show as well,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: and of course Nick shook.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: Look when when Bill.
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: Belichick back in the saddle.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I already said that on Thursday. Look when we're going
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: up against each other because we want that title. Yea
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season. That's when you know
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: football is back. This Sunday