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Felix Prehn - The $65 Billion BUY Warning! + Stock Market News 17 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, welcome to this pre-market stream, and we've got a ton of stuff to go through today.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: That is incredibly important to understand, and I'll explain to you why.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: I'm very, very bullish on the market right now, but I don't want to take my word for it.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I wanted to actually have the facts at hand.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Plus, I also have something very exciting to share with you, which is going to come out just in a couple of days.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you a sneak preview here, so stick around, smash the you know what and let's dive straight into it.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: The only thing that matters is you?
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Well, not quite.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: What is the only thing that matters in the stock market?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Any guesses, any guesses?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Yes, of course, it is profits.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: In the long run, it's certainly profits, and these are the profits of, basically, us listed companies, the S&P.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: And what do you see?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: What do you see?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Well, they're going through the freaking roof, aren't they?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: And that explains why the market's going up, and I think they're going to continue to do that.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Why AI, of course, is the answer to it More efficiency, less people doing more, or maybe more people doing a lot more.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Probably the prior rather than the latter.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: So this chart, very important to watch.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I'll keep popping that up for you over the next couple of weeks.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: And we also have hedge funds who've been very cautious.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: They came back from their boats in the Mediterranean you know, off the can and they thought we were still feeling very, very cautious.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: They came back from their boats in the Mediterranean you know, off the can and they thought we were still feeling very, very cautious, and they've been selling tech stocks at an insane rate here this year.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: But what's the beautiful thing with that?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Well, their exposure to tech stocks is actually very low.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: If you just look at the right chart here this one we are sort of at July 2020 levels, which means they could buy about 50% more tech stocks if they wanted to.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Which means what?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: There is a big, beautiful bouncy possibility of a big tech rally, and you might feel like we've just had one.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Well, we could have another one.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: This is from Morgan Stanley, by the way.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: We're in the first percentile, as in like, we're at the lowest level we've been for a year.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: And it isn't just hedge funds, it's also the normal fund managers that just get paid a lot less and they're probably not on the yachts.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Very terrible people, terrible, terrible.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: The inequality on Wall Street, I think is something that both presidential candidates really need to address that there are hedge funds managers who make hundreds of millions and then mere bankers and fund managers who might not even break a million a year.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, how are they meant to live?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Not the biggest problem in the world, is it really?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: But the same story here.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Global funds have this exposure right now.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: At one point they were up here in January 2021.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: So they could go easily 30% more into tech if they wanted to, into stocks generally.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So that's a good thing Right Now.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: What's also a very good thing is wouldn't it be nice if this was your stock chart and you bought down here at about $4 and right now it's trading at $12?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be nice if that happened to you sometimes Not every day, but maybe once a week or once a month or once a quarter?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't that be nice?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: It is actually possible, and it isn't rocket science and it isn't luck.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: It is just knowing what defines that breakout Volume, breaking through certain levels, that sort of thing.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: And for that I've made for you a masterclass.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: It's 35 minutes long.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: You can get it at felixfrenzorggetfree and you can watch it and you can learn exactly how to spot those breakouts.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: And it's helped me tremendously to beat the market again and again, and again, and again and again.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: And people always say, oh, you can't beat the market.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Well, did you just see the earnings results from the big banks like Goldman Sachs and those guys?
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Right, they brought in billions more money than anybody thought.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Because they're beating the market and you think it's rocket science.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Therefore you can't do it.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Well, that's mindset.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I used to be in that place.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I was lucky.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I happened to find a job that taught me.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So just watch it for like 30 minutes.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I know most of you won't and that's okay.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I'll keep nudging you two, but I can't help you if you don't want to learn.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I can really only help you if you're willing to learn.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: So check it out.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Felixfrenzorg slash, get free.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: And here we come to the headline of today's video computers.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: The beloved fluffy computers under your desks will start to buy stocks, pretty much no matter what happens.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Well, they're projected to buy somewhere between 65 billion and 156 billion over the next three months.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: So they're going to buy quite a lot and it's just an automated thing.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Very little you need to do about it and it'll just happen.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: And people don't really realize that, and, of course, one of the reasons is that they also realize it's November and December coming up and there are glorious months in the market and therefore they're going to buy.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: So something to realize.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Now, this is a chart that will piss off half the audience, but there we have it.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: The market would love a Trump win.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Yes, I said, it Doesn't matter whether you're a Tramponian or a Kamala Lallost.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Either way, she is very good at evading questions.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: I give her that Great politician.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: From that perspective, the greatest politicians are usually the ones who say nothing at all.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not talking about people doing something in the real world.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about the skill of politicking, as in getting around the potholes, donald Trump the odds right now of him winning are higher than they were in 2020 and in 2016.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: This was 2020.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: This was 2016.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: And it's one of the reasons the market's going to be doing so well, because the market would like the lower taxes, they would like the low regulation, and you might think it's all going to go belly up and all that.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: It's highly possible, but I'm just telling you what the market's saying right now.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: So the market would like a trumpet we also had after the disaster of asml.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: A few days ago, tsmc just reported taiwan semiconductors, who basically are the in-house manufacturers for nvidia, and they reported a 54 increase in profits for the quarter and strong, very, very strong demand.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So it seems AMSML's problems isn't the end of the AI rally quite yet, and it is therefore very good news for chip stocks, nvidia and so on.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: I think ASML, by the way, is probably a combination of export restrictions and therefore orders having been pulled forward, and then also Intel not building factories.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: That will have hurt them quite badly, so that's a good story.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Um, now here's something I'm incredibly excited about.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you use trade vision, which is a platform that we've been building for the last I don't know almost two years now, I think.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Me and a former student of mine who's brilliant and um, we uh wanted to basically make wall street level data available to you in a way that makes sense, that's affordable and that makes helps to make you better traders, better investors.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Same thing, really, and one of the big things has been support and resistance.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So this is coming up to your Trade Vision account in the next couple of days If you want to get yourself a free trial for the week, then check it out, sign up.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: We hopefully put this out by Monday or so, but no firm deadline on it.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: But I'm playing with it as you speak and basically we'll have a support line here that one and we'll have a resistance line here, and these are based on actual trade positions placed by market makers, so they're based on really what's happening out there in the market life essentially, and it'll update every couple of minutes.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So it will give you a real insight initially into the big indices SPY and things like that, and QQQ and stuff like that, the big stocks and then we'll see if we roll it out to more stocks.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: It has most impact for the most traded stocks, so your apples and so on and your S&P.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: But it's incredibly useful because look at that here, look at what the resistance is and look what happened the last two days here.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: It's almost exactly the high, and why?
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Because resistance means selling happens from the market makers.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So it's very, very, very useful to understand where these lines sit and that'll be part of trade vision very, very shortly.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So I want to announce that to you.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: It looks very cool already.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: I very shortly, so I'm going to announce that to you.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: It looks very cool already.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I'm excited to.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Here is it here?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: This is it?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: No, I'm not logged into the.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Oh, here it is.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: There we go, so you'll be able to see exactly where the resistance line sits, as it shifts during the day and so on.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So super useful for people who want to get in at the right position and not where they're about to hit their head right.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, check it out.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Tradevisionio.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: And, speaking of that, let's look at some actual charts here.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Let's look at some of our favorites.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: So S&P still on a tear, but a little bit of a lid there, as we saw from the resistance line.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Just NVIDIA has rebounded quite nicely from the ASML scare and that's good news and that takes us to the very top of here and there.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: So we're kind of in breakout territory again, I would argue.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Our buy signal kicked in on October 8th.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: That's still valid.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: We're still $4 above that, despite the little dip there.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: We never got out.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: It wasn't that serious.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So that's quite nice.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, we do actually, with our little indicator here, manage to beat buy and hold on Trade Vision, which is extraordinary because very hard to beat something that's gone up 256%.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: We've done 274, which is, you know, little helps.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Tesla has actually had a horrible time since beginning of 2022, right Down 44%.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Here we're up 81% with our little indicator.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: So buy and hold is everything yeah, right?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Well, not really.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: The problem with buy and hold is if you're buying something that's a falling knife, like Tesla has been, and you hold it forever, okay, forever you might be okay, but in the short term, you're just not using your capital, you're not using your money very efficiently.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I like to use my money quite efficiently.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: So what do we see here?
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a recovery here, which is nice.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: We're 221.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: We want to be above 220.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: That's quite important, but we're edging our way back up to the uptrend.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Let me open a more detailed chart.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: In the top right here you can click on the more advanced chart and that will give you a little bit more information if you are interested in that sort of thing.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: And one of the things it gives us is the resistance here in green, and we will ultimately make that lines for all charts.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: And right now that sits at 225, supports it at 200.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: So 225 is kind of the nut that we need to crack.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Watch out for volume.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: It's been very low here the last couple of days.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: In a way, a good thing if the stock isn't really going anywhere.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: But you want to get a bit of oomph back in that as we rally up.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: That's really what you want.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, we're just going to peter sideways for a while, which is not the end of the world, but it's also not particularly brilliant.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Sofi, it's above $10.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: That's really all I ask.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: All I ask is to stay above $10 for a little while.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: We'll be here for a little while.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Why will we be here for a little while?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: So we're up here at $10.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: And can you see where the biggest green candle is here?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: It's there $10.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: $10 is the resistance.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Then it moves a little up to sort of 10, 50, 11, but 10 is the big one For next week.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: It moves up a bit towards 11.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So I think next week 10, 50 is on the cards.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: 11 would be the limit of the party.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: If I go out into November, we're still at $9 and $10.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So we need to see these trades move up.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: We need to see these positions move up in the market.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So the market really underwrites a $10 plus so far and it's not quite there yet.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Palantir is still doing very nicely.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Look at that run right.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: It started here at $26.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Actually it really started here at $22.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: And we're now at 41.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: So very, very sweet run up here and at 41.93.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Do I have a problem with that?
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: No, very happy Again, I think.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Just hold the $40 plus.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Have a look also at the resistance here.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: It was moving up to what's a 50, which is extraordinary.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: So for this week it still sits here at 45.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: See that there.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: But people are building positions up at 50.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Go into next week 45 decreases it's still there 44 and 45 resistance and then we go up into 50.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: So there is a lot of bullishness behind Palantir.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't bet against it at this point.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a dip here, but nothing particularly bad.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: We just want to make sure we don't get lower lows.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: You see this low and that low were lower than the previous day.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Kind of want to make sure that doesn't get any more extreme.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Anything else I forgot PayPal is doing quite nicely as well.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I just nibbled on some more PayPal and it's trading at $80, sort of holding the line, and again, that's likely to do that for a little bit and then it's going to move towards the 100, at least in my humble opinion.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: No crystal balls involved, but yeah, we're just going to take out here that's sort of the big one here $100.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: A little bit below that it'll get a bit dicey, but once you're there you're clear to head back to 120.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So I'm very excited about this run up here, earnings coming up shortly as well, of course.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: So watch out for that.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Hopefully they're going to deliver, as they have done in the last couple of earnings, and tell us something exciting.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Are there any exciting buys in here?
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: You know we get an email every day from Trade Vision.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: That's what it looks like.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: This was the midday buys.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: We also send an end day buy and it just gives you the big movers up and down which can be very, very useful.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, you can double check the chart.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: You just click on it and it'll take you there.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: So I highly recommend you check that out.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: It's the risk-free endeavor you can check out at Trade Vision and really just learn how to spot those stock breakouts.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Life's a lot more fun when you do a lot less trading and a lot less investing and you just buy the stuff that's about to explode and every single breakout is predictable and every single crash is predictable.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: And, um, if that was true, why isn't everybody doing it?
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Well, probably 0.1 percent of the people watching this video are going to watch my masterclass, and that tells you why.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Because 99% of people just don't take any action.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: They just think that if they do the same thing again and they work a little bit harder and they maybe get a raise, they're going to be fine, and I very much hope you will be.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: But it's the people who actually go out there and learn something new every day, and I aim to do that every day.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I aim to learn something new every day, and whether that's listening to a podcast or watching something or reading something and just challenging myself a little bit to just get that little bit better every day, and you know what it actually is.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: What keeps life fun, it's what makes us, challenges us.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: So challenge yourself just a little bit.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I hope I broke it down in a pretty easy way.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Beginners can definitely learn this.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: You don't need to be a uh, have any particular experience or skills, and just head over to felixfranzorg, get free, watch the video.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you make of it, any questions you have be super happy to answer, and I wish you a beautiful, staggeringly wonderful day of growing and learning and becoming more and more wealthy, and I hope to see you on the next one.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: All the best.