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Natty Or Bust? Ohio State's Possible Path To A Title · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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Welcome to Buckeyes Tomorrow morning for Wednesday, July third. I'm your host,
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Tom Moore. The Acron game in fifty nine days, the game against Michigan
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in one hundred and fifty days. All right, We're going to revisit a
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show that we did a couple weeks ago, taking one of the preview magazines
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and projecting what that would mean for the college football Playoff this year, because,
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frankly, I think there's a lot about this year's college football Playoff that
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is going to be so new and so different that it's worth kind of going
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through a couple of different scenarios to sort of get a look at how things
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could play out, because I think there's a lot of factors that people are
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not thinking about right now. The last time we did Phil Steele and ended
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up with a potential Ohio State versus Michigan Rose Bowl. How fun would that
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be? This time, we're going to take the projections from Lindy's, and
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Lindy's actually projected all the games, the results of all the college football playoff
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games, so we're just going to use their numbers, use their projections.
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We're doing that with our buddy Tony Gerdaman a fuck huddle dot com Tony.
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The first time I went through this, I think my big takeaway was whole
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crap. Georgia could have the easiest geographic path through a you know, three
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to four game playoff that I think is possible, playing two games in Atlanta
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and then one down in South Florida. And I'm just gonna go ahead and
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put a spoiler a lot on this one. That's gonna happen for the Bulldogs
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Again. It sure seems like this year is shaping up for it to be
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a really long, stroke, you know, arduous playoff run for everyone,
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and then the Bulldogs get to play a couple home games and then one not
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very far from home. Yeah, and it will still be a very difficult
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series of games, but not a series of places to play as It's kind
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of like when you're a kid and you have to be home by dark.
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That's George is gonna get be able to be home by dark like for all
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of these games. They'll be home way before anybody else. But you know,
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I think we've come to experience expect that with Georgia and many of the
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SEC teams. But this is really very in your face. This year for
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what could happen for Georgia. Yeah, and one of the things that factors
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into that is the fact that the National championship Game is being played in Atlanta
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this year, so that will not be in every year thing, but it
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is a this year thing. So we're again we could be using the numbers
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from Lindy's and here's how they have this playing out in terms of just the
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rankings, how the twelve teams will slot into the bracket. Number one Georgia,
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Number two Ohio State, no surprises there. Then remember the number three
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and number four teams are the other two highest ranked conference champions. So they've
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got number three Florida State, Number four Oklahoma State. Not expecting with Oklahoma
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State to be the fourth best team in the country, but they would get
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the fourth seed if that plays out that way. So those are the four
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teams that will get first round bys. After that you get number five Texas,
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number six Oregon, number seven, Ole, miss number eight Michigan,
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number nine Alabama, number ten Notre Dame, number eleven Missouri, and number
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twelve Liberty. That twelfth seed is going to be the fifth conference champion,
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whoever that is. That could be the highest ranked non Power five team essentially,
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so it could be Liberty. I've seen Boise State talked about in some
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places, utsa someone like that, but that team is going to be the
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twelfth seed more than likely this year, so Tony. That would set up
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our first round games. There's one on Friday, December twentieth in the evening,
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and then three games in early afternoon, in a late afternoon, and
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an evening game on Saturday, December twenty first number twelve, Liberty at number
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five, Texas number eleven, Missouri at number six, Oregon number ten,
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Notre Dame at number seven, ole Miss number nine, Alabama at number eight,
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Michigan. This is last time we ended up with the Phil Steel one.
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We ended up with a bunch of rematches. This one feels like this
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is much more likely to be what this kind of looks like this year.
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Other than the fact that Michigan and Alabama played this past year, and other
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than the fact that Liberty, we saw what happened to Liberty when they played
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Oregon last season, so that's probably not going to go great for them.
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Other than that, this one feels like okay, Missouri, Notre Dame at
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ole Miss, like Alabama at Michigan. These are good helmet games. These
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are good you know, matchups that we haven't really seen a ton before.
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Like this is kind of the intriguing type of first round that I think everyone
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is sort of hoping. Yeah, but my first thought is Liberty better be
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the Friday night game. That's that's my first thought on that one. And
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then you've got this tripleheader of really cool stuff and I think the biggest game
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in Old Miss. It would be the biggest game at Old Miss in the
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modern era. Having a playoff game against Notre Dame there, I think would
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be fantastic. Alabama we're always talking about with these home playoff games, and
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let's see the SEC come up, you know, to the Midwest, come
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up to the North and play in December. While you've got Alabama at Michigan
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there and Missouri Oregon, you know, take the over, I guess at
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that point with those two offenses. But you look at this and I would
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say put Alabama at Michigan at night, But you know, does that mean
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Notre Dame Ole mess would be your early game and then Missouri at Oregon at
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three thirty for a kind of two new local kicks. Yeah, that's that's
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an interesting question, and they did not project the kickoff times. You would,
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well, I can't imagine. Okay, first of all, let's let's
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run through the TV schedule for this and remember the two earlier games. Those
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are the ones that are going to be going up against the NFL games.
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Those are the ones that ESPN has outsourced TNT. So those are those are
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going to be you know, ESPN is going to almost certainly gets its pick
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of which game it wants. I cannot imagine ESPN not picking Alabama and Michigan
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as its primetime game. So that would be, you know, assuming that's
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all, Assuming that is all how that plays out, and ESPN does get
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a say, yeah, Alabama at Michigan primetime, and then yeah, and
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then you know you're going to have Notre Dame Ole miss in the early afternoon
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in Missouri, Oregon in the late afternoon, I would guess. But yeah,
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point Alabama going to Michigan in December. Who knows what the weather's like.
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I mean, sometimes we have been in Michigan on days when it has
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been in the fifties in late November. We have been at Michigan in days
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when it has been snowing sideways in in late November, and this is three
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weeks after that, so that could be really interesting to see in Alabama team
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have to go play in the elements, one of many things I think I'm
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looking forward to about this. So all right, so that's the first round.
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Now onto the quarterfinals, and the quarterfinals are being going to be played
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in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve and then on January first, twenty
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twenty five. You got the Peach Bowl in the early afternoon, the Rose
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Bowl in its traditional late afternoon kickoff, and then the Sugar Bowl at night
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in its traditional spot. The Lindy's magazine has the New Year's Eve Fiesta Bowl
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projected as number four Oklahoma State versus number five Texas, then the Peach Bowl
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number one Georgia versus number eight Michigan, Rose Bowl, number two Ohio State
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versus number seven Ole Miss, and then the Sugar Bowl number three Florida State
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versus number six Oregon. You know, other than Oklahoma State, Texas,
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you know these this feels like games that you would you know, again,
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the caliber of teams, the caliber of games you're kind of would if it
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would be expecting for this, you know this this round of the playoffs,
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and I think the number four Oklahoma State is just going to be one of
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those things that people are still going to be going, wait, what,
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how how are they number four? We can talk about this as much as
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we want, I think people are still going to be baffled that that team
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like Oklahoma State could be the number four seed. Well, and it's similar.
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It's what we talked about the last time we did a show like this
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with the Phil Steel Magazine, that number five seed is maybe the way to
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go for for a number of reasons. You get the twelve team, which
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is Liberty, you'll get them at home, and then you get the four
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seed, which could be it's it's going to be the second worst of the
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conference champions and that five seed is probably it's going to be the second best
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of one of the major conferences. So I'm I'm guessing that five seed is
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going to be a favorite over the four seed almost every single year, and
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maybe a considerable favorite. And this is kind of like a Big twelve championship
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game, old big Big twelve championship game played in the Fiesta Bowl, all
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missed in the Rose Bowl. Just seems very very odd. To me,
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that's one where I can I see it. But until I'm seeing it,
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it's gonna be hard to imagine Florida State at Oregon in the in the Sugar
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Bowl seems legitimate to me. I mean, we're used to seeing Florida State
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there and we're used to seeing Oregon kind of everywhere now. Or Michigan having
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to go play you know, see how they like it? I guess is
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what I would say. Go go play Georgia and the Peach Bowl, enjoy
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your visit to the College Football Hall of Fame, and then just enjoy being
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surrounded by a bunch of Georgia fans who have this feeling of ownership over something
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that you took from them last year or so. Good luck with that one,
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I guess. Yeah. Where did they play a couple of years ago
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in the playoff? Was that down in the Orange Bowl? I think where
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you know that one? That was one of the Michigan players came in with
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they run the damn ball T shirts on, and then they proceeded to not
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run the damn ball at all or not pass the ball very much. Either.
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Things did not go well that that game. I would not expect things
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to go particularly well for Michigan against Georgia this year, either that moves us
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onto the semi finals. Thursday, January ninth is the Orange Bowl. Friday,
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January tenth is the Cotton Bowl, And according to the Lindy's projections,
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the Orange Bowl would be number one Georgia versus number five Texas. You'd have
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an all SEC semi final, and then the Cotton Bowl would be number two
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Ohio State versus number six Oregon and all Big Ten semi final. Tony,
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this could be the third time Ohio State and Oregon play in the season.
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If they meet, you know, they will match up in early October in
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Eugene, and they will potentially match up again in Indianapolis in the Big Ten
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championship game. I know they say it's hard to beat a team twice in
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a year, Tony. I don't know that there's a college football saying about
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how hard it is to beat a team three times in a season, But
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it is entirely possible. We will find out whether it is easy or hard
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to do that this year. Well, and if somebody does it, does
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that mean it's easy? And then we can just create coin the phrase right
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then, like everybody knows how easy it is to be a team three times
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in the same season, because we've seen it. It's never every time the
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opportunity has presented itself, it's been completed. But this we've talked before about
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setting the over under our number of times Ohio State and Oregon will play,
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and I think we both took the over at one and a half. I
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think most people probably would. I think it is also interesting that I believe
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both of these would just be rematches of the conference title games the SEC in
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the Big Ten title game, and I still am interested to see what happens
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when you have a conference title game loser, like in Texas or an Oregon
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in these situations, will they get passed by the number three team in the
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conference because maybe now Oregon or Georgia or Oregon or Texas has like one more
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loss than the number three team or something of that nature, and you've created
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some sort of a punishment for making the conference championship. I think there needs
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to be an understanding that making the conference championship is a good thing and you
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shouldn't be penalized for it, whether you win or lose, and go from
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there. But I'll take it Cotton Bowl against Oregon. You know, at
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at some point, can can Oregon come to Ohio Stadium in the playoffs at
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some point? Maybe? I mean Indianapol is pretty close. That's that's that's
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as closed as as they will get, and they were. Oregon was of
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course at Ohio State in twenty twenty one. That did not go great for
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Ohio State. Worth mentioning here. Georgia and Texas also have a regular season
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game scheduled that is kind of late mid to late October down in dk R,
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so they could also play three times this year. One thing that we
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don't know yet is will the committee shuffle teams around a little bit to try
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and avoid maybe a three, you know, a third rematch before a national
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championship game. You could very easily flip Texas and Oregon here and then you
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end up with Georgia Oregon in the Orange Bowl and Ohio State Texas in the
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Cotton Bowl. That's the one that came up when we did the field Phil
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Steel one where the Buck guys could end up having to play Texas in Texas
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in the semi final and then Georgia in Georgia for the for the final.
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So you know, you're not going to make everyone happy there no matter what
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you do. You know, and we don't know yet if they're going to
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be shuffling things to try and avoid rematches as much as possible, or just
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straight seeding. That's all sort of still TBD. One more thing with this
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TBD. Who will play in the National Championship Game? That is Monday,
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January twenty, twenty forty five down in Atlanta. They have number one Georgia
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projected against number two Ohio State. They've got Georgia beating Ohio State twenty seven
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to seventeen. Feel like I'm probably taking the over on forty four points in
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the National Championship Game. But that's you know. I mean, if you
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get, if you get an Ohio State season that ends with a game against
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Michigan in Columbus, a Big Ten championship game against say Oregon, a quarterfinal
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game in the Rose Bowl against Ole Miss, a semi final game in the
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Cotton Bowl against Oregon, and then a National championship game against Georgia. I
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mean, just that run. The stuff that happens after Thanksgiving this year is
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probably the best series of five Ohio State football games you've ever seen. Just
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in terms of quality, excitement, drama, all of that stuff be very
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interesting if Ohio State goes three and zero against Oregon and Oregon's only losses are
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to Ohio State and have like Ohio State beating Oregon, knocking them out of
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the top ten when like only one team could beat them, and it's like,
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you've diminished the win over Oregon, the wins over Oregon by knocking them
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out of the top ten by beating them so many times. But this is
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going to be the most difficult National championship for anybody, regardless of the venues.
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It would just be easier for Georgia, but it's still going to be
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the most difficult run that they've ever had with the number of teams that you're
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gonna have to face. So yeah, those without saying that, we're very
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much looking forward to it. But again to reiterate, nobody is owed.
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This natty or bust is ridiculous when you consider what somebody is going to have
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to do to win this. And I'm talking to Ohio State fans who are
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like, if you don't win it this year, this is the end of
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the world. They're not even favored to win it. And then you consider
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what they would have to do to win it. Somebody's gonna win it,
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so why not Ohio State. That's what you know, a lot of people
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are gonna be saying. I'm just saying it's as much. This is much
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more difficult than anything Jim Trussell ever had to do, anything that Urban Meyer
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had to do, Certainly anything that Woody Hayes ever had to do. He
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had he won a national championship before bowl game for Kranda Allowed didn't have any
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conference championship games either. So this is the most difficult thing that any college
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football program is going to have to do. So falling short of that,
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you know, I don't think it's a Scarlett letter, so to speak.
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No, this is definitely a year where there are going to be a lot
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of very very very good teams that do not win the national championship this year,
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that have a chance to win the national championship, that have a chance
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to win the national championship as of mid December and don't win the don't get
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end up getting in there. You may note that we did not say the
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words En State in this show. You know, it could always be worse.
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You could miss the playoffs, entirely, But yeah, I do wonder,
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you know, I saw a rumor somewhere or the idea floated somewhere that
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Dan Lanning, the Oregon coach, you know, maybe Jerry Jones is interested
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in him. Wouldn't it be interesting if Dan Lanning's Series A season ended in
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Jerry world in the Cotton Bowl, and then Jerry say, hey, why
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don't come up to Moss Sweet we could talk about talk about football. It'd
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be that could be uh, you know, one more one more fascinating potential
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subplot for this what is shaping up to be a really really interesting season.
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I fear not. I have the Pick six previews preview already pre ordered.
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As soon as that comes in. I mean, it's a little bit of
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a different look than what we're what we've done in the previous two shows.
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We will probably take another more another run through this as well, because this
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is so fascinating to me, all the different possible matchups and the teams playing
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in places have never played, Whig State and Ole Miss having their first ever
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matchup in the Rose Bowl. That would be imagine telling yourself that ten years
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ago, fifteen years ago, o Hawistate and Ole Miss will play for the
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first time ever, and I'll be in the Rose Bowl that uh Blane Kiffin
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yet with land Lane Kiffin will be prominently involved. Yet. Speaking of coaches
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who might be headed out the door at the end of the season for somewhere
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else, well, well we'll see. Maybe maybe Ohio State just pass a
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bunch of coaches off into new jobs at the during the college football playoff run
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this year, we will see how that all goes. We will be we
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will be there for all of it. We were looking forward to all of
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it as well. At bucke huddle dot com that's where Tony, Kevin and
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I cover the team, Mark covers recruiting, or at our whole team of
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ex's and those guruz making you as Murder football fan all at buckehuddle dot com.
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That'll do it for today. Thank you guys all for joining us.
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Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow.