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Is now a good time to buy a house? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
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Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike and not Tucker with you. And as we
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Speaker 2: continue to look at this market, not much movement today.
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Speaker 2: You've got the Dow off one hundred and forty points,
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Speaker 2: which is a third of a percent. The S ANDP
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Speaker 2: is down four, so less than a tenth of a percent.
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Speaker 2: The Nasdaq is up eleven, so about a twentieth of
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Speaker 2: a percent. So overall, just not much movement in the
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Speaker 2: aggregate for US equities. Under the hood, you got some
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Speaker 2: some big names moving. Tessels up almost four percent today,
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Speaker 2: AMD's up almost two point seven percent. On the downside,
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Speaker 2: he got FedEx down a couple percent, Lenar down one
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Speaker 2: point five percent. But on the whole, just not too
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Speaker 2: much movement overall, and a pretty quiet day. As we
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Speaker 2: await the consumer pricing next day of the CPI tomorrow,
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Speaker 2: We're gonna get that at eight thirty am, and expectations
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Speaker 2: for that are that the headline number comes in somewhere
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Speaker 2: between point two and point three percent for the month,
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Speaker 2: which would bump the year over year inflation rate up modestly,
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Speaker 2: potentially to two point eight percent. The core inflation rate
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Speaker 2: expected to come in at point three percent for the month,
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Speaker 2: and that would bump core inflation up from two point
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Speaker 2: nine to three percent. There's a range of projections, obviously,
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Speaker 2: but that's you know, what we're seeing in general. Ten
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Speaker 2: year treasury today is not really doing too much. It's
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Speaker 2: down one point two basis points to four point two
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Speaker 2: seven to one percent. Mortgage News Daily right now has
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Speaker 2: the national average for the thirty year fixed rate mortgage
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Speaker 2: up two basis points to six point five seven percent,
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Speaker 2: so a little bit lower than it's been. You know,
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Speaker 2: we've kind of been that six six to six eight range,
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Speaker 2: but still not conclusively moving lower in any way, shape
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Speaker 2: or form. And we've got oil today down eight cents
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Speaker 2: of barrel to sixty three eighty on West Texas Intermediate.
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Speaker 2: The only big move for the day is gold, which
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Speaker 2: is down eighty eight dollars and ten cents to thirty
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Speaker 2: four oh three and twenty cents. But here's the thing
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Speaker 2: about gold, it's basically just been stuck in a trading
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Speaker 2: range over the last four months now. And hey, it
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Speaker 2: was close to the top end of that trading range
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Speaker 2: on Friday. Now it's you know, kind of backed down
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Speaker 2: a little bit, but it's pretty much been between about
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Speaker 2: thirty two fifty and thirty five hundred in that time,
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Speaker 2: and no conclusive move in either direction to this point.
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Speaker 2: Top story for this hour. Why it's actually a good
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Speaker 2: time to buy a house according to a Zillo economist.
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Speaker 3: So a bit of self interest here. Let's be clear.
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Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing. I don't mean to pick on
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Speaker 2: Zillo economists, but I kind of do. And the reason
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Speaker 2: why it's not because of any personal feelings toward them.
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Speaker 2: I don't know any of them. I'm sure they're all
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Speaker 2: smart guys and girls and they're doing their thing working
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Speaker 2: for Zillo. But Zillo arguably has more information on housing
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Speaker 2: than anyone else in the world. Is that a fair
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Speaker 2: statement to say on us housing up there?
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Speaker 3: I mean, it's tough for me to come up with.
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Speaker 3: Would MLS have more or not? Doesn't matter.
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Speaker 2: There are talks to people who should be most qualified
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Speaker 2: to speak on housing, and yet during a time when
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Speaker 2: housing was absolutely booming, Zillo, through its business of buying
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Speaker 2: and trying to flip homes, lost a billion dollars on
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Speaker 2: housing in twenty twenty one. In early twenty.
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Speaker 3: Two, gotta spend money to make money.
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Speaker 2: Despite having more information on housing than anyone else So
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Speaker 2: forgive me if I hear, Hey, Zillo thinks housing's gonna
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Speaker 2: this is a good time to buy, and I say, em,
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Speaker 2: I'm just not sure that that's how I would go
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Speaker 2: about it right now, because your track record wasn't great
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Speaker 2: in arguably the best you know flipping market ever, quite honestly.
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Speaker 3: So let's lay out the arguments for and against.
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Speaker 2: Here's what they say in terms of here's why this
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Speaker 2: is a good opportunity to buy. Home price is projected
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Speaker 2: to fall a little bit by the end of the
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Speaker 2: year on a nationwide basis. Obviously all real estate is local.
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Speaker 2: But saying, okay, things might be getting a little bit cheaper.
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Speaker 3: There, and so if the prices are in the midst
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Speaker 3: of falling, you might be able to drive a harder bargain.
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Speaker 2: Hey, if interest rate cuts end up coming and push
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Speaker 2: rates down, maybe that lack of competition for buying goes
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Speaker 2: away and prices start to move back up. Okay, like
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Speaker 2: kind of reasonable. I could understand that. And by the way,
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Speaker 2: inventories they mentioned are starting to level off a little bit.
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Speaker 2: Here's now the counter to all this. Inventories are leveling
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Speaker 2: off because they always level off this time of year.
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Speaker 2: They don't continue building into your end normally. This is
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Speaker 2: a standard seasonal thing and has nothing to do with
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Speaker 2: whether home prices are going to go up, down, or
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Speaker 2: sideways in the next decade. Second piece is one of
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Speaker 2: the things that cited by this economist is the reason
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Speaker 2: why some of the deals might be better now is
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Speaker 2: because in places like Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, home insurance
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Speaker 2: premiums have been going up and may continue to go up,
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Speaker 2: which to me says, hey, maybe you're not actually getting
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Speaker 2: that good of a deal because those costs could continue to.
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Speaker 3: Go up and the economy stays bring that up. Like
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Speaker 3: you know, a huge part of whether or not this
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Speaker 3: is a good deal is depending on how much more
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Speaker 3: of these insurance premiums need to increase over the next
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Speaker 3: five years, which is scary. That's a scary premise. I
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Speaker 3: guess here's the other piece.
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Speaker 2: That I just always come back to, and this is
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Speaker 2: very much how This very much informs how I think
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Speaker 2: about housing, like for your for your primary residence, if
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Speaker 2: you're buying, you know, rentals, I'll be one hundred percent honest,
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Speaker 2: I don't have a clue. Like, you're better off listening
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Speaker 2: to anyone else but me on your primary residence. I
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Speaker 2: think I have a pretty good opinion, which is, if
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Speaker 2: you find the house that you like, in the location
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Speaker 2: that you like, at the price that you can afford,
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Speaker 2: don't worry about whether you're getting a good deal or not.
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Speaker 2: Try to get the best deal that you can for
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Speaker 2: that property, but ultimately buy the house fit fits all
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Speaker 2: those criteria.
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Speaker 3: Because here's another thing that I don't think this is
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Speaker 3: what's going to come to pass. But I was listening
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Speaker 3: to an economist that was getting interviewed this morning, and
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Speaker 3: her outlook was, I think, different than the overall narrative
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Speaker 3: on the state of the economy. Her outlook was, yeah,
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Speaker 3: in the short term, the Fed may cut rates, but
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Speaker 3: their general outlook was five years from now, interest rates
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Speaker 3: are going to be higher than where they are right now,
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Speaker 3: which I don't think is the craziest thing that I've heard,
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Speaker 3: but it's definitely not mainstream. And so I would put
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Speaker 3: myself into that buyer that you were just referring to,
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Speaker 3: which is, Hey, I can afford the home, I can
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Speaker 3: afford the payments even out of seven percent or whatever
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Speaker 3: it is mortgage area I like, and it's the right
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Speaker 3: home for me. But imagine imagine waiting that out for
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Speaker 3: a moment and saying, hey, I'm waiting for the buyer's market,
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Speaker 3: and I know a year from now more homes are
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Speaker 3: going to come because prices are moving so quickly. And
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Speaker 3: you end up getting a five percent price decline on
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Speaker 3: that you know, similar home that you like a year
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Speaker 3: from now, but mortgage rates go up by two percent. Right,
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Speaker 3: These are all possible outcomes that people need to think about.
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Speaker 3: And that's the nice thing about a mortgage is it
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Speaker 3: has optionality to the downside, only your costs.
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Speaker 2: As long as you're getting a fixed rate mortgage. Your
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Speaker 2: top line cost on that mortgage piece is fixed. It
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Speaker 2: can't go higher. Now, your insurance premiums and things like
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Speaker 2: that can move up, so you do have to be
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Speaker 2: cognitive of that. But if rates move lower, great, you
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Speaker 2: can always refinances.
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Speaker 3: Why Warren Buffett calls the thirty year mortgage the best
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Speaker 3: deal in I don't know what he calls it, Like,
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Speaker 3: the best deal in the United States is the thirty
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Speaker 3: year mortgage. I thought that would be two diet cokes
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Speaker 3: for a dollar. Yeah, Like, he's kind of right. There's
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Speaker 3: nothing that compares to it, and it's partly because it's subsidized,
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Speaker 3: largely because it's subsidized by the United States government. But
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Speaker 3: I think it's important to do that thought exercise every
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Speaker 3: once in a while, which is, everybody knows that interest
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Speaker 3: rates are coming down, that's being telegraphed everywhere. You've got
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Speaker 3: fed economists talking about you've got the president talking about it.
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Speaker 3: What if the exact opposite happens, How does that change
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Speaker 3: your life?
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Speaker 2: Well?
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Speaker 3: And you have to plan for both of those scenarios,
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Speaker 3: you do.
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Speaker 2: And the other thing, just on the mortgage, the one
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Speaker 2: that I always like to come back to that always
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Speaker 2: really gets everyone all upset when I say this, but
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Speaker 2: it's it's true. And I say this as someone who
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Speaker 2: has a mortgage. If you've got a fixed rate mortgage,
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Speaker 2: it's rent control for you. Now again, I think we
9:34
Speaker 2: can look at it and be like, hey, we don't
9:35
Speaker 2: want rent control because of reasons X, Y, and Z,
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Speaker 2: And here's why generally you don't want that.
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Speaker 3: And by the way, before you say, oh, no, it's
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Speaker 3: private businesses you know, decided to do this. No, the
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Speaker 3: United States government forces those companies or incentivizes those banks
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Speaker 3: to issue thirty year fixed rate mortgages. If the US
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Speaker 3: government was not buying them off their books, it would
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Speaker 3: not issue them.
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Speaker 2: Now, there wouldn't be a set price for every house,
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Speaker 2: So it's not rent control in the aggregate. But when
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Speaker 2: you have a fixed rate mortgage, it is rent control.
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Speaker 2: Your rent cannot go up. And so ultimately it's something
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Speaker 2: that benefits you tremendously if you can do that, all
10:12
Speaker 2: the other stuff about will the you know, will I
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Speaker 2: get a better deal down the road, or will home
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Speaker 2: prices go up? Quite honestly, who cares your your Your
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Speaker 2: home is meant to provide you with shelter, stability and
10:27
Speaker 2: a place that hopefully you'll like to be in. And
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Speaker 2: so again I come back to if you like the house,
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Speaker 2: if you can afford the house, and you say great,
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Speaker 2: like this is gonna work, Okay, Like, go for it.
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Speaker 2: Don't worry about trying to get the best deal on
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Speaker 2: a house. And by the way, I'll go even one
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Speaker 2: step further if like, just as an example, if you
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Speaker 2: if you walk away from a house over less than
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Speaker 2: two percent of the cost of the property, you're doing
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Speaker 2: it wrong. Okay. Average property in the United States right
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Speaker 2: now is four hundred thousand. Let's call it the median property.
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Speaker 2: Let's call it four hundred thousand. If I've got eight
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Speaker 2: thousand dollars and I'm saying, hey, I gotta get this
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Speaker 2: down by two thousand, you know, by eight thousand dollars
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Speaker 2: by two percent in order to make this work. Mortgage
11:23
Speaker 2: is just three hundred and sixty payments, even factoring an
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Speaker 2: interest you're talking like twenty five dollars twenty six dollars
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Speaker 2: a payment. If you're walking away from a place over
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Speaker 2: twenty five dollars per mortgage payment, stop going out to
11:38
Speaker 2: dinner one time a week, they're going out to lunch,
11:41
Speaker 2: because now that's like a Chipotle with a drink, you know,
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Speaker 2: if it's twenty five dollars and you can make everything
11:47
Speaker 2: else work. But you're just like, no, I got to
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Speaker 2: get the deal. What are we really doing here? Like,
11:55
Speaker 2: it's just you find another way to get the twenty
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Speaker 2: five dollars a month is kind of what I'm getting
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Speaker 2: at if everything else works. Now, if you can't afford
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Speaker 2: the place, and you're you know, making this argument, that's
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Speaker 2: obviously very different. But if you're just like, no, I.
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Speaker 3: Don't only afford this home. If interest rates come down
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Speaker 3: by two percent in five years and I can read it.
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Speaker 3: In that case, it's like, no, absolutely, don't go by
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Speaker 3: the house. But if it's well, I don't know if
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Speaker 3: I'm getting a good deal, and I really want to
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Speaker 3: push this.
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Speaker 2: Guys, don't haggle over twenty five dollars a month. Find
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Speaker 2: a way to you know, cut your budget elsewhere or something,
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Speaker 2: and get the house that you want. Take a quick
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Speaker 2: break here. When we return, we're going to do a
12:34
Speaker 2: little bit of trivia, and then we're gonna talk about
12:36
Speaker 2: whether this market is just like the dot com bubble.
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14:13
Speaker 2: Dot com parallel leads to fear of what's next for
14:16
Speaker 2: this record busting stock market. So look, Mike and I
14:21
Speaker 2: don't know what the market's gonna do this afternoon. We
14:25
Speaker 2: don't know what it's gonna do tomorrow. Or for the
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Speaker 2: next week or next month, or next year, next decade.
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Speaker 2: Fair right, we we don't. But what I do know is, look,
14:35
Speaker 2: when a market makes all time highs, if all you
14:37
Speaker 2: do is poop pooh and say, oh, this is only
14:40
Speaker 2: gonna end badly, it's it's not a great way to
14:43
Speaker 2: go through life. Quite honestly, Well, it's not a great
14:47
Speaker 2: way to make my life.
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Speaker 3: It's also not Yeah, I mean, you could say this
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Speaker 3: exact same thing four pretty much each of the last
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Speaker 3: three years. Like, you can't be in twenty twenty one.
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Speaker 3: You can four had the last five.
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Speaker 2: You can't be the bearish at the lows and at
15:01
Speaker 2: the highs. It's you kind of got to pick one.
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Speaker 3: But but let's acknowledge a few things. Forget about the
15:08
Speaker 3: concentration of well, I mean, we can mention it, but
15:10
Speaker 3: the ratio of the S and P five hundreds tech
15:12
Speaker 3: companies to the index, it's the highest since it's been
15:16
Speaker 3: since the dot com stage. Okay, I don't know if
15:19
Speaker 3: there's anything to that. I don't think that. I don't
15:21
Speaker 3: know if that matters.
15:22
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this because this is like a big
15:24
Speaker 2: argument that's in this piece. Is hey, right, now you've
15:28
Speaker 2: got you know, tech as you know, just like the
15:31
Speaker 2: tech sector. Sure is thirty four of the S and
15:34
Speaker 2: P five hundred, which, by the way it's.
15:36
Speaker 3: Ever been does not include Google. It does not include Facebook,
15:43
Speaker 3: I'm trying to think about others include Amazon, Amazon either,
15:46
Speaker 3: So those couples are now tech companies. Nor is Tesla.
15:49
Speaker 2: So it talks about that. It also talks about, you know,
15:51
Speaker 2: like the concentration amongst like the top ten companies is
15:54
Speaker 2: really high. Sure, there's a whole bunch in here. And
15:58
Speaker 2: here's the point that I'll make because I I don't know. Look,
16:02
Speaker 2: what if the outlier period is actually the periods where
16:05
Speaker 2: there's less concentration, you know, why do we think that
16:10
Speaker 2: those other periods are the norm? You know, quite honestly,
16:14
Speaker 2: if you move towards an economy that is more winner
16:20
Speaker 2: take all in a number of businesses with less anti
16:24
Speaker 2: trust oversight, which is generally kind of where we've been going,
16:28
Speaker 2: why wouldn't you expect big companies to become a larger
16:31
Speaker 2: piece of the market.
16:33
Speaker 3: I will say the pieces that seem scarier and more
16:35
Speaker 3: relevant to me is that just the price you're paying
16:37
Speaker 3: for stocks generally, which can be problematic, you know, you
16:41
Speaker 3: look back at other times when we have seen valuations
16:44
Speaker 3: as high as they are now, and the only thing
16:46
Speaker 3: I'll say about it is that it's generally led to
16:49
Speaker 3: poor long term, intermediate to long term results after that
16:54
Speaker 3: point in time. But you could have said that in
16:57
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three, and we've had a couple of pretty
17:01
Speaker 3: darn good years in stock market performance here, and so
17:05
Speaker 3: it is an interesting question of how you approach a
17:07
Speaker 3: market like this that is at all time highs or
17:09
Speaker 3: near them, and is close to all time highs in
17:12
Speaker 3: terms of valuations. And I think generally my answer would
17:15
Speaker 3: be you should factor that in for what you assume
17:19
Speaker 3: markets will do over the long term. But the other people,
17:22
Speaker 3: there are plenty of people who would say, Mike, you're wrong,
17:24
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter. The market has changed. We're on the
17:27
Speaker 3: cusp of a revolution, and when it comes to artificial intelligence,
17:30
Speaker 3: it's going to make everybody more productive, companies more profitable,
17:33
Speaker 3: and so the valuations are justified. And I don't know
17:38
Speaker 3: that could be. I think the point would just be
17:42
Speaker 3: you need to approach any stock market with a set
17:47
Speaker 3: thesis and plan for how you're going to invest into
17:50
Speaker 3: it and what it's going to mean for you long
17:51
Speaker 3: term and if you're struggling to adjust that, adjust to that,
17:55
Speaker 3: especially with markets at all time highs, and how to
17:58
Speaker 3: invest into one like it. Give the folks at Armstrong
18:01
Speaker 3: Advisory Group a call so we can work it through
18:03
Speaker 3: with your personal strategy, because it does need to be
18:06
Speaker 3: customized to each individual. The numbers eight hundred three to
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Speaker 3: nine three four zero zero one. Again, that's the number
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Speaker 3: four the Armstrong Advisory Group eight hundred three nine three
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Speaker 3: four zero zero one.
18:17
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18:33
Speaker 2: Take it a look at markets as we head towards
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Speaker 2: the bottom of the hour. Quite honestly, not too much
18:38
Speaker 2: worth taking a look at. The Dow is still off
18:40
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty three points, the SMP is down
18:43
Speaker 2: a quarter of a point, not a quarter percent, but
18:45
Speaker 2: a quarter of a point, which means it's effectively flat,
18:48
Speaker 2: and the Nasdaq is up thirty two points or less
18:52
Speaker 2: than two tenths of a percent, so just not a
18:55
Speaker 2: whole lot of movement. Are the Russell two thousand just
18:57
Speaker 2: to get in on the action open the day up
18:59
Speaker 2: half But like the Russell two thousand has done so
19:01
Speaker 2: many times this year, is now down a tenth of
19:04
Speaker 2: a percent because no one loves small caps anymore. Yeahoo,
19:09
Speaker 2: it's just kind of it's just the trend that we
19:13
Speaker 2: keep on seeing. Overall breadth in the market today not
19:17
Speaker 2: particularly strong. One hundred and forty one more companies in
19:19
Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred down than up as
19:22
Speaker 2: of this very moment in time. So even though the
19:24
Speaker 2: index is flat, more components down than up at the moment.
19:28
Speaker 2: Quick break here. When we come back, we get the
19:30
Speaker 2: trivia answer and Wall Street.
19:32
Speaker 1: Watch, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio
19:43
Speaker 1: every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
19:47
Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete
19:53
Speaker 1: look at what's moving markets so far today right here
19:56
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:00
Speaker 4: We aren't moving a whole lot here at eleven thirty,
20:02
Speaker 4: the Dow Jones is down three tenths of a percent,
20:05
Speaker 4: or one hundred and forty nine points. The SP five
20:07
Speaker 4: hundred is down point zero one points, or just incredibly flat.
20:12
Speaker 4: The Nasdaq is down just under forty points, just under
20:15
Speaker 4: two tenths of percent. Intel shares are trading five percent
20:19
Speaker 4: higher ahead of Intel Chief executive Lip Bouton's visit to
20:22
Speaker 4: the White House today. This comes just days after US
20:25
Speaker 4: President Donald Trump called for his immediate resignation over ties
20:28
Speaker 4: to Chinese businesses. Stocks tied to cryptocurrencies roses. The price
20:33
Speaker 4: of bitcoin neared its all time high. Shares of Coinbase
20:36
Speaker 4: and micro Strategy each rows six percent and four percent,
20:39
Speaker 4: while Robinhood shares are up two percent. Crypto prices have
20:42
Speaker 4: risen since Trump signed an executive order on Thursday that
20:45
Speaker 4: lays the groundwork to open four oh one K retirement
20:48
Speaker 4: plans to alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and real estate.
20:52
Speaker 4: Television broadcasts are Next Stars in advanced talks to acquire
20:56
Speaker 4: media rival Tegna. Shares of Nextar, the largest local televis
21:00
Speaker 4: broadcaster in the US, are up six percent on the news,
21:02
Speaker 4: while Techna shares jumped over thirty percent. Shares of Rumble,
21:06
Speaker 4: a video sharing platform and cloud service provider, up nine
21:09
Speaker 4: percent as the company considers making an all stock bid
21:12
Speaker 4: worth nearly one point two billion dollars for German AI
21:16
Speaker 4: cloud computing group Northern Data. The announcement made by the
21:19
Speaker 4: companies on Sunday led Northern Data shares to tumble and finally,
21:23
Speaker 4: Tesla shares are up four percent after the ev company
21:25
Speaker 4: formally submitted its request for an electricity license to the
21:29
Speaker 4: British Energy regulator off GEM. If approved, the license will
21:33
Speaker 4: allow Tesla to supply electricity to British households and businesses
21:37
Speaker 4: and compete in the UK energy market. I am Ben
21:41
Speaker 4: Kitchen and that was Wall Street Watch. Today's trivia question
21:45
Speaker 4: was what was the name of the nineties sitcom that
21:47
Speaker 4: starred Joe Rogan as a conspiracy theorist maintenance man. That'd
21:51
Speaker 4: be news Radio. Our winner today is Adam from dennis Port.
21:56
Speaker 4: He is taking home a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
21:59
Speaker 4: We played trivia every day here on the Financial Exchange.
22:01
Speaker 4: See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
22:05
Speaker 2: Piece in the Wall Street Journal that has the first
22:08
Speaker 2: ever instance of the word schmoogle being used in a
22:12
Speaker 2: headline that I was able to find the headline. Might
22:16
Speaker 2: you ask Google smoogle when to ditch web search for
22:22
Speaker 2: deep research and basically, what it's talking about is, hey,
22:27
Speaker 2: when do you When do you have a question that's
22:31
Speaker 2: so complex that you should be only focusing on using
22:37
Speaker 2: artificial intelligence to try to answer it rather than using
22:42
Speaker 2: traditional search. And I think, quite honestly, and maybe this
22:47
Speaker 2: is just how my last couple weeks have gone, but
22:51
Speaker 2: I got to the point where I was just getting
22:52
Speaker 2: really frustrated with search engines for not providing me relevant details,
22:57
Speaker 2: the relevant information that I was looking for. And it
23:02
Speaker 2: got to a point where I just started saying, Okay,
23:04
Speaker 2: I just need to ask, like chat GPT this just
23:06
Speaker 2: to see what answer it gives. And more often than not,
23:10
Speaker 2: it was starting to give me better answers than search was.
23:13
Speaker 2: And so I've, quite honestly, in the last couple of weeks,
23:15
Speaker 2: stopped using search engines. Now I'm not using them, I'm
23:19
Speaker 2: not I'm not using chat GPT for this deep research idea,
23:23
Speaker 2: which is, you know, hey, asking a complex questions with
23:26
Speaker 2: long prompts. And I've seen some you know, really long
23:30
Speaker 2: prompts that are like, you know, paragraphs long that you
23:32
Speaker 2: can basically standardize and tweak a couple words here and
23:35
Speaker 2: there for what you're looking for and get what you want,
23:37
Speaker 2: and it might take chat, GPT or claude, you know,
23:41
Speaker 2: five or ten minutes to get you that answer that
23:43
Speaker 2: you're looking for there. But quite honestly, even for like
23:47
Speaker 2: small little things, I've kind of moved away from search
23:51
Speaker 2: engines because I think they've gotten worse.
23:53
Speaker 3: Here's my concern. And I don't know if they've gotten
23:56
Speaker 3: worse or if they just seem worse in comparison to
23:58
Speaker 3: what we now expect from the likes of chat gipezza. No,
24:01
Speaker 3: they but in either case, my concern about this transition,
24:06
Speaker 3: and the author Nicole seems as though she has worked
24:13
Speaker 3: on this, trained herself on AI, and gotten used to it.
24:16
Speaker 3: It's pretty easy to detect chuck when you do a
24:19
Speaker 3: search and you get crap results. Yes, it is a
24:23
Speaker 3: lot more difficult to detect that with artificial intelligence. And
24:27
Speaker 3: what I worry about, and this was I think a
24:30
Speaker 3: story we might not have had time to get to
24:32
Speaker 3: last week. What I worry about is untrained users on
24:38
Speaker 3: artificial intelligence platforms who don't know how to check the
24:44
Speaker 3: reality of some of this stuff, falling into a further
24:47
Speaker 3: echo chamber that is even more amplified than social media,
24:51
Speaker 3: for example. So there was An example given of a
24:54
Speaker 3: gas station attendant querying a whole bunch of scientific related
24:58
Speaker 3: stuff and an artificial intelligence basically claiming that he and
25:03
Speaker 3: the AI had it invented a new form of mathematics
25:06
Speaker 3: and you know, proved alien life and things like that,
25:09
Speaker 3: and you know, which is great, I mean, funny stuff.
25:12
Speaker 3: When I'm sitting here talking about it, they didn't actually,
25:15
Speaker 3: but I have some doubts that the gas station attended
25:17
Speaker 3: with artificial intelligence did manage to invent a new form
25:21
Speaker 3: of mathematics and discover aliens. Now take that with somebody
25:26
Speaker 3: who gets the majority of their news from social media
25:29
Speaker 3: and then turns to AI to verify that data, and
25:33
Speaker 3: I worry that we might have just a completely scary
25:37
Speaker 3: echo chamber, the likes of which were already somewhat used
25:41
Speaker 3: to but are probably getting further down the road. And
25:44
Speaker 3: I don't be surprised, Like this is going to be
25:47
Speaker 3: part of the nuance of using these types of tools,
25:49
Speaker 3: just like there were goods and bads of the Internet.
25:52
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get that with AI too.
25:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so here here's the thing. You get
26:00
Speaker 2: what you're saying, But that's kind of like, hey, I
26:01
Speaker 2: don't know if we should use power tools because if
26:03
Speaker 2: you use them wrong, you can really hurt yourself.
26:05
Speaker 3: Agreed, Like, I don't think that should prohibit us from
26:08
Speaker 3: using AI as a tool. I'm merely saying that buyer beware,
26:13
Speaker 3: because if you ask it to verify a bunch of stuff,
26:16
Speaker 3: what it's largely going to do is develop an opinion
26:18
Speaker 3: on something based on the resources that are available on.
26:21
Speaker 2: The way and what it thinks you want. Quite honestly, Yes,
26:23
Speaker 2: so I think look the guardrails that I kind of
26:26
Speaker 2: use for AI, I never ask it anything about myself.
26:31
Speaker 2: I never do. I never asked it to like comment
26:35
Speaker 2: on something like what decision should I make on this?
26:37
Speaker 2: Some people are trying to use as like third party
26:40
Speaker 2: like neutral arbiters of you know, decision making. Yeah, And
26:43
Speaker 2: I'm like, dude, like, that's that's not how life really works, man, Like,
26:48
Speaker 2: I'm I'm sorry, but it's just not.
26:51
Speaker 3: How soon before we have do you guys ever watched
26:53
Speaker 3: the movie? Yes?
26:54
Speaker 2: Man?
26:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean look Mike Harries, Yes, man, It's just
26:56
Speaker 3: like I'm gonna plan out my entire years worth of
26:59
Speaker 3: my life by asking AI what I should do.
27:01
Speaker 2: I mean, look, there's been a number of documented problems
27:05
Speaker 2: with you know, AI induced psychosis and stuff like that
27:08
Speaker 2: like that. Never ask anything about yourself. Never ask it
27:10
Speaker 2: anything about like trying to prove a belief system or
27:13
Speaker 2: trying to prove anything that hasn't been proven, because it
27:17
Speaker 2: can't do that. What I ask it for is, Hey,
27:20
Speaker 2: I tried to google how many you know, traffic fatalities
27:23
Speaker 2: there were last year? And I'm not getting the results
27:26
Speaker 2: I want. Great, let me put that in here and
27:28
Speaker 2: it'll and tell it to cite the source, and great.
27:31
Speaker 2: I can get to you know, the nitza site that
27:32
Speaker 2: actually has the information because Google won't put it on
27:35
Speaker 2: the first page for some stupid reason now, like it's
27:38
Speaker 2: not AI enough. Yeah, so I'm asking it for factual
27:42
Speaker 2: stuff with sites and I get to what I need
27:45
Speaker 2: from there. But asking it to you know, postulate about
27:49
Speaker 2: human existence or oh, do you think that if you
27:53
Speaker 2: know you could breathe, would your bubbles be green?
27:56
Speaker 1: Like?
27:58
Speaker 2: No, like it it's gonna tell you the bubble are blue,
28:00
Speaker 2: man like. Don't ask its stuff like that, and and
28:03
Speaker 2: don't ask it to analyze what you should do with
28:05
Speaker 2: your romantic partner, because it's a computer that's never had
28:08
Speaker 2: a romantic partner, Okay, So.
28:11
Speaker 3: Like, I wonder how it would do with helping me
28:13
Speaker 3: decide what car to buy next.
28:16
Speaker 2: Could probably do fine on something like that. Yeah, but
28:20
Speaker 2: even there, quite honestly, you don't need.
28:23
Speaker 1: It for that.
28:25
Speaker 3: I don't. I'm just curious.
28:26
Speaker 2: You could find the top ten vehicles of whatever classification
28:30
Speaker 2: you're looking for through Car and Driver, Road and Track
28:33
Speaker 2: or whatever and get your list from there, and you're fine. There, correct,
28:37
Speaker 2: there's already there's already plenty that's you know, going in
28:39
Speaker 2: that direction. So I look at some of the stuff
28:42
Speaker 2: in and I'm someone who's somewhat AI skeptical as well,
28:46
Speaker 2: Like if you've been listening to our show the last
28:48
Speaker 2: couple of years, you know, I'm not like all in
28:51
Speaker 2: on this, but I feel like we're starting to move
28:53
Speaker 2: a little too far in the other direction, which is
28:55
Speaker 2: like when open ai released chat GPT five last week
29:00
Speaker 2: and people were like, oh, it said there were too
29:02
Speaker 2: many bees and blueberries and so it's dumb. Well, yeah,
29:07
Speaker 2: like I get that if you ask it things that
29:10
Speaker 2: are you know, ask it things that you would never
29:14
Speaker 2: actually ask, you're going to get dumb answers.
29:17
Speaker 3: So your conclusion is that it's come a long way
29:20
Speaker 3: from instructing users to eat rocks.
29:22
Speaker 2: It still does some dumb stuff and you still need
29:25
Speaker 2: to use it with supervision because it will lie to
29:28
Speaker 2: you on a regular basis.
29:30
Speaker 3: What was the other one? I saw somebody get hospitalized
29:32
Speaker 3: for following a diet that chat GPT came up with it.
29:36
Speaker 2: Oh, I saw that one last week. Also, I can't
29:38
Speaker 2: remember what it was. Yeah, it wasn't good though. No,
29:42
Speaker 2: So again, I use it for give me facts and
29:46
Speaker 2: cite the location that you got the facts, and you're
29:49
Speaker 2: generally going to get to a pretty good spot if
29:52
Speaker 2: you're trying to trick it or trying to get it
29:55
Speaker 2: to give you advice, or trying to get it to
29:57
Speaker 2: think about the universe, don't.
30:01
Speaker 3: A man consulted chat GPT prior to changing his diet.
30:04
Speaker 3: Three months later, after consistently sticking with the dietary change,
30:07
Speaker 3: he ended up in the emergency prom.
30:09
Speaker 2: Galway bromide instead of assault right for.
30:11
Speaker 3: Concerning new psychiatric symptoms, including paranoia and hallucinations. It turned
30:16
Speaker 3: out the sixty year old had bromism, a syndrome brought
30:18
Speaker 3: out by chronic overexposure to the chemical compound bromide.
30:22
Speaker 2: Oh, I thought that's what you get from hanging out
30:24
Speaker 2: into fraternity too much. You got bromism, man, Yeah.
30:27
Speaker 3: Somewhat more concerning.
30:29
Speaker 2: In fact, let's take a quick break. When we come back,
30:32
Speaker 2: We've got stack Roulette right after this.
30:37
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31:37
Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for stack roulet?
31:39
Speaker 3: I would like to talk about Target. They seem to
31:42
Speaker 3: be failing at every step of the way in kind
31:45
Speaker 3: of spectacular fashion, and so I think it's worth discussing.
31:48
Speaker 3: I have to believe that it all stems from Amazon
31:53
Speaker 3: eating their lunch for the better part of a decade
31:55
Speaker 3: and Target not responding to it. But that's all on
32:00
Speaker 3: my theory. The latest news to come out is in
32:02
Speaker 3: early June, a company wise survey showed that roughly half
32:06
Speaker 3: of Target's employees didn't think the company was making the
32:08
Speaker 3: changes necessary to compete.
32:10
Speaker 2: What did they think the changes should be.
32:11
Speaker 3: I don't know that they actually gave the specific other
32:15
Speaker 3: items that they should change, but just general dissatisfaction with
32:18
Speaker 3: the direction. About forty percent of the two hundred sixty
32:21
Speaker 3: thousand staffers who replied. Again, you did a survey, and
32:24
Speaker 3: more than a quarter million of your staff responded to it.
32:27
Speaker 3: That that speaks to engagement at least, but I don't
32:29
Speaker 3: think it's the right kind. They said they didn't have
32:33
Speaker 3: confidence in the company's future. Forty percent of your two
32:36
Speaker 3: hundred and sixty thousand people that responded said I don't
32:38
Speaker 3: have confidence in their future. I think where it stems
32:40
Speaker 3: from is you've got Amazon obviously eating their lunch, Walmart
32:45
Speaker 3: becoming more competitive in a lot of places that Target
32:48
Speaker 3: steps in. You have to compete, so you have to
32:51
Speaker 3: cut costs in some way, shape or form while also
32:53
Speaker 3: trying to deliver a better product. And I think what's
32:56
Speaker 3: resulted is a store that's not as enjoyable to shop
33:01
Speaker 3: in as it used to be, with less friendly, underpaid
33:04
Speaker 3: staff than they used to have, and a brand that
33:08
Speaker 3: just doesn't really know where it lives anymore. So again,
33:13
Speaker 3: at least that's what I hear from dedicated Target shoppers
33:16
Speaker 3: who used to love the place, and I think they've
33:19
Speaker 3: really very much lost their way, and I just I
33:22
Speaker 3: don't think that they are the best at anything now.
33:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I look, I think about this in
33:29
Speaker 2: the context of I think of like my favorite stores
33:33
Speaker 2: to go to, and it's kind of like a tough
33:36
Speaker 2: thing for me because I really don't enjoy shopping in general.
33:41
Speaker 2: It's not something that I enjoy. It's kind of a
33:43
Speaker 2: necessary evil, sure, but it's something where I still say, hey,
33:47
Speaker 2: this is a great experience. And generally, when I think
33:50
Speaker 2: of the stores that I really enjoy, they have one
33:52
Speaker 2: of three or four things. They either have great prices yep,
33:57
Speaker 2: great selection, or really knowledge people that can help me
34:01
Speaker 2: with something I need help on.
34:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think of something like my favorite places to go.
34:05
Speaker 3: Costco is one of them, right, Like, I'm not a costcomember,
34:08
Speaker 3: I'm a BJ's member.
34:09
Speaker 2: Same thing. It's like, I know, I can find lots
34:13
Speaker 2: of stuff there at cheap prices and big sizes, so
34:17
Speaker 2: I can get like plenty for you know, a family
34:20
Speaker 2: that eats, you know, pint of blueberry as a meal.
34:22
Speaker 3: I'm sure there are a bunch of people who love
34:24
Speaker 3: the family run liquor store. But I'll say that Total
34:26
Speaker 3: Wine and More is another one of those stores for me,
34:28
Speaker 3: where amazing prices, knowledgeable staff, good app, you know, good
34:32
Speaker 3: app on your phone, like great experiences, and I just
34:36
Speaker 3: Target doesn't deliver any of that for me, right. Walmart
34:39
Speaker 3: does deliver some of it, I mean, not helpful staff
34:41
Speaker 3: generally in my experience, but you know you're getting rock
34:44
Speaker 3: bottom prices and a huge selection. TJX is another one where,
34:51
Speaker 3: again I don't go there because I'm looking for a
34:53
Speaker 3: personal shopping experience in the same way I would from
34:56
Speaker 3: Total Wine, but it's a scavenger hunt type experience. And again,
35:04
Speaker 3: I just don't think Target's generating that type of excitement
35:07
Speaker 3: and is just continuously falling behind their main competitors Walmart
35:11
Speaker 3: and Amazon.
35:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just what's the thing that's going to get
35:15
Speaker 2: you out of your seat to go to Target or
35:18
Speaker 2: even to buy it on Target dot Com instead of
35:20
Speaker 2: on Amazon. Yeah, it's it's kind of a tough one,
35:24
Speaker 2: you know, to get there. I want to talk about
35:27
Speaker 2: this piece on pocket pancakes.
35:30
Speaker 3: What is a What is a pocket pancake?
35:32
Speaker 2: I'm glad you asked so. I'm not really a baseball
35:34
Speaker 2: watcher these days. It's just I just don't have enough
35:37
Speaker 2: time in the day to watch one hundred and sixty
35:39
Speaker 2: two games. And honestly, if you're not watching most of
35:41
Speaker 2: the games, you're kind of missing the game within the game.
35:44
Speaker 2: There's a deep one for you. The Milwaukee Brewers, apparently
35:48
Speaker 2: their manager Pat Murphy, was captured in an interview pulling
35:53
Speaker 2: a pancake out of a uniform pocket and then eating
35:56
Speaker 2: it and trying to share it with the reporter. A pancake, okay,
36:03
Speaker 2: and pretty much. He was talking about, how look, I
36:06
Speaker 2: you know, in the middle of a game, I have to,
36:08
Speaker 2: you know, find ways to get food onto the field.
36:10
Speaker 2: I don't just want to, you know, eat peanuts and
36:12
Speaker 2: cracker jacks. So I smuggled this pancake in my little
36:16
Speaker 2: uniform pocket.
36:19
Speaker 3: Like it is what it is. You know, it's not
36:21
Speaker 3: the snack that I would have chosen. It seems like
36:24
Speaker 3: it might absorb too much of the other stuff going
36:26
Speaker 3: on with my body. I might heard something with a wrapper.
36:29
Speaker 2: Well, the other species that you have.
36:30
Speaker 3: Look, did you put syrup on that pancake before you
36:32
Speaker 3: put it in your pocket and then dry it out
36:34
Speaker 3: in some meaningful way?
36:35
Speaker 2: Did the pocket do the drying?
36:36
Speaker 3: My wife did just come home from Costco with a
36:39
Speaker 3: bunch of prepackaged mini pancakes, So that does exist. Maybe
36:43
Speaker 3: that's what we are going on.
36:44
Speaker 2: Maybe.
36:45
Speaker 3: So in any case, cooked the pancake though, and stuck
36:48
Speaker 3: it in his pocket.
36:49
Speaker 2: Well, I don't think he cooked anything. I think this
36:51
Speaker 2: was at the stadium and it was probably part of
36:53
Speaker 2: the pregame spread. Okay, it's kind of the sense. I
36:57
Speaker 2: don't really think the manager's cooking before the game. But
36:59
Speaker 2: that's just me. Your mileage may vary in any case. Uh.
37:02
Speaker 2: The Brewers have announced that Murphy's Pocket pancakes will be
37:06
Speaker 2: sold at American Family Field during Sunday games for the
37:10
Speaker 2: rest of the season. And so they're gonna go with
37:14
Speaker 2: it and roll with it. Now I do like it.
37:17
Speaker 3: The question is, how do you turn this play? Hopefully
37:19
Speaker 3: he doesn't get caught at a cold Play concert.
37:21
Speaker 2: How do you turn this into something like during the
37:23
Speaker 2: game though, where hey, at this point in time, everyone
37:26
Speaker 2: reachs into their pocket and pulls out the pancake and
37:28
Speaker 2: like waves it at the battery or something.
37:30
Speaker 4: Seventh inning stretch.
37:31
Speaker 2: Ye, the seventh inning pancake, you know, and then you've
37:35
Speaker 2: got the eighth inning waffle. And if you win the game,
37:40
Speaker 2: French toast ecks forever French Toast baby, It says here
37:43
Speaker 2: he also does pizza pizza in the pocket, cold pizza.
37:47
Speaker 4: He folds it in half like a sandwich and puts it.
37:49
Speaker 3: In again, like does the zone. There's so many better
37:53
Speaker 3: options for if you're trying to eat pizza on the fly.
37:55
Speaker 2: You could actually have a pizza pocket, you know, like
38:00
Speaker 2: just thinking out loud here, glad we went here. But uh,
38:04
Speaker 2: in any case, if you have any foods that you'd
38:06
Speaker 2: like to stick in your pocket while you're watching sports
38:11
Speaker 2: Texas at six point seven three six two thirteen eighty five,
38:14
Speaker 2: we're gonna take a quick break for the rest of
38:16
Speaker 2: the day. We'll see you tomorrow. On the Financial Exchange