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ASEAN Navigating US-China Rivalry · Diplomacy and International Relations

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  Welcome to Diplomacy and International Relations by
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  Bastian Freiburg. Today, we're diving deep into,
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  well, one of the most complex geopolitical balancing acts
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  playing out right now, Southeast Asia.
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  Just picture this region, right? It's sort of positioned directly
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  between the world's major powers, and it's navigating this
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  incredibly tangled web of rivalries and partnerships, all
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  while trying to carve out its own path.
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  It's definitely high stakes, and we want to unpack the strategies
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  and maybe some surprising factors shaping its future.
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  So our mission today is really to get a handle on the latest
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  within ASEAN. That's the Association of
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  Southeast Asian Nations. We'll be looking closely at its
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  role, especially with the US China competition heating up and
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  also at its own efforts that, you know, internally to get more
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  unified and influential. And to do that, we get quite a
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  range of sources, everything from op eds by retired
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  diplomats, people who've been in the trenches, so to speak, to
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  official statements from recent summits.
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  It gives us a pretty wide view of the challenges, but also the
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  opportunities facing ASEAN. Oh, and just a quick note before
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  we really get started. If you find these deep dives
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  valuable and maybe you'd like access to some extra episodes,
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  we do. You can subscribe on Spotify.
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  There's a small fee and the link for that is right there in the
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  description. OK, let's get into it.
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  When we talk about ASEAN, in this multipolar world we're in,
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  it really does feel like these country were under immense
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  pressure, A geopolitical pressure cooker, you could say.
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  the US, China, strategic competition.
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  It's not just background noise anymore, is it?
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  It feels quite intense, especially around places like
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  the South China Sea. So what does that actually mean
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  for the countries caught in the middle?
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  Well, it means they're constantly walking a tightrope,
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  you know, trying to find these really nuanced positions.
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  Some of the analysis we looked at, like Southeast Asia in a
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  multi polar world really highlight this.
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  You got countries, say the Philippines, maybe leaning a bit
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  more towards the US for security reasons, but then others like
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  Cambodia or Laos, they might find themselves drawn more
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  towards China, often because of all significant economic ties
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  and investments. And that divergent naturally
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  puts a strain on ASEAN's ability to act as one.
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  Right. So it's not just about picking a
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  side. We're also seeing these big
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  powers sometimes kind of going around as in setting up their
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  own deals, bilateral or the smaller multilateral groups.
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  Does that risk making ASEAN, you know, less central or does it
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  just force them to change tactics?
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  How does that actually work on the ground?
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  Oh it absolutely forces them to adapt.
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  I mean, look at the US Indo Pacific Economic Framework IPA
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  from 20/22. It includes some ASEAN members
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  but not all, alongside countries like Japan and Australia and
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  then China. It pushes its own groupings
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  through things like RCAP, the Regional Comprehensive Economic
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  Partnership. That's a huge trade deal, but
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  significantly the US isn't part of it.
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  These kinds of moves, they can definitely chip away at ASEAN's
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  role as the main convener in the region, its power to set the
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  agenda and create those region wide frameworks.
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  It kind of feels like chess pieces are being moved around
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  ASEAN rather than through it sometimes.
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  And the economic numbers, wow, they really paint a picture.
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  You mentioned the 2024 figures, Chinese foreign direct
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  investment in ASEAN at 32 billion U.S. dollars, USFDI at
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  28 billion. It's not a massive gap on paper,
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  but you add in China's Belden Rd. initiative.
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  That's real leverage, isn't it? It creates uneven dependencies.
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  Absolutely. The Belt and Rd. initiative
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  pumps huge amounts of money into infrastructure across Southeast
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  Asia. For countries like Laos or
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  Myanmar, China is often their number one economic partner.
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  I think I saw a figure that China holds about half of Laos's
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  external debt, something like $10.5 billion as of 2024.
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  That kind of economic weight, well, it inevitably influences
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  policy choices. It can pull members in different
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  directions away from a unified ASEAN stance.
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  OK, so given this incredibly complex environment, all these
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  pressures, what is ASEAN actually trying to do?
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  What's their fundamental goal in all this?
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  Deep down, I think ASEAN really wants to be that essential
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  bridge, that mediator between the US and China.
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  The idea is to use their collective economic weight,
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  their established institutions, to protect Southeast Asia's
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  sovereignty, keep the peace, and ensure prosperity.
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  All this focus on unity, on expanding dialogue, on
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  integrating their economies more deeply.
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  It's all aimed at managing those great power tensions right in
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  their own neighborhood. It's about asserting their own
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  agency, not just reacting. And for you listening to this,
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  why should you care about this balancing act happening maybe
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  thousands of miles away? Because the stability or
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  instability of Southeast Asia has huge knock on effects
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  globally. We're talking major shipping
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  lanes that the South China Sea, critical supply chains for
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  electronics, energy, all sorts of goods pass through there.
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  Any disruption ripples outwards. It impacts economies, global
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  security. What happens in ASEAN can quite
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  literally affect the price of things you buy or the
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  geopolitical climate we all live in.
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  It's a real bellwether. So with all that external
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  pressure, it makes sense that strengthening from within is
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  like priority number one for ASEAN.
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  The sources we read really hammered this home, the need for
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  more unity, faster decision making.
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  What are the concrete steps being talked about?
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  What can they actually do? Well, there are several key
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  things on the table. First, there's a big push to
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  speed up the Austrian Economic Community, the AEC blueprint.
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  This isn't just about trade deals on paper.
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  It's about real practical economic integration, trying to
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  reverse the recent trend where trade within ASEAN is actually
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  declined. The goal is to make the block
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  more self reliant, less vulnerable to external economic
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  winds. You know, OK.
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  Economics can definitely help bind countries together, but
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  Southeast Asia is so diverse, right?
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  Different political systems, different national interests.
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  Is just integrating economies enough?
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  Especially when political disagreements run deep.
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  What else are they considering? That's a really good point.
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  Economics isn't a magic bullet, so another proposal is this idea
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  of a crisis troika system. Basically, it would involve
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  rotating chair positions, the current, previous and next
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  chairs working together to develop specific protocols for
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  mediation. The aim is to have a faster,
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  more unified response ready to go when a security crisis hits,
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  rather than getting bogged down and trying to reach consensus
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  from scratch every time. It's about being more agile.
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  And what about talking to the big powers?
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  How does ASEAN make sure it's voice is actually heard by the
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  US and China? Empowering their existing
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  dialogue platforms is key. One idea is setting up specific
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  working groups that actually include US and Chinese special
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  envoys and their job to negotiate practical things like
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  crisis communication hotlines, confidence building measures.
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  Small steps maybe, but crucial for preventing misunderstandings
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  from escalating direct, consistent channels.
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  And then there's the idea of partnering more with the
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  so-called middle powers, think Japan, the European Union,
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  Australia. The strategy here is to bolster
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  Asians neutrality. If you have more security
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  options, more diverse investment sources, you're less dependent
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  on any single great power. It gives ASEAN more breathing
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  room, more diplomatic flexibility.
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  It is good to see some positive economic signs though.
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  ASEAN, hitting 4.8% growth in 2024, projected 4.7% for 2025,
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  driven by manufacturing, public spending that helps and the
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  ASEAN Geo Economics Task Force pushing for deeper integration,
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  fully implementing RCAP. Exactly.
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  And what's really interesting, I think, is that ASEAN isn't just
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  passively reacting. It's actively trying to build
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  its own resilience, pushing the AEC, the crisis troika idea.
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  They're trying to rewire their own systems, you know, to make
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  sure collective action can actually hold up under pressure.
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  The aha moment maybe, is realizing this isn't just
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  diplomatic movering. It's about whether a collective
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  like ASEAN can maintain influence when big power
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  competition is so strong. OK, so with these internal
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  strategies shaping up, let's look ahead.
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  Malaysia takes over the ASEAN chairmanship in 2025 and people
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  are already calling it a pivotal moment.
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  Why? Because tensions are high.
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  The Myanmar crisis is still unresolved.
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  South China Sea progress is slow.
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  What's Malaysia's approach going to be?
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  Malaysia's chosen theme is inclusivity and sustainability.
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  This comes directly from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Madani
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  philosophy. It's the concept focused on good
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  governance, compassion, sustainability, prosperity,
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  innovation, trust, a kind of holistic, values driven approach
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  to national development which they want to bring to their
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  ASEAN leadership. And Prime Minister Anwar
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  Ibrahim, he's been pretty direct, hasn't he?
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  Especially about ASEAN's traditional principle of non
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  interference. How does his philosophy square
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  with that, particularly on tough issues like Myanmar?
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  Yeah, he has definitely put a different spin on it.
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  He famously said that non interference is not a license
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  for indifference, especially when it comes to human rights
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  crises like the one in Myanmar. It suggests maybe a more
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  proactive stance, moving beyond strict non intervention to
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  acknowledging a regional responsibility, particularly on
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  humanitarian grounds. It could be a subtle but
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  important shift in how ASEAN operates.
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  Let's dig into those flashpoints then, starting with Myanmar.
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  It's really tested, as in, hasn't it?
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  Where do things stand with that five point consensus?
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  Progress has been very limited, unfortunately.
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  The five to C that was ASEAN's big plan from 2021, calling for
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  ending violence, dialogue, aid access.
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  But the military gent in Myanmar, they tend to view it
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  more as a constructive suggestion, not something
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  they're strictly bound by. Plus, they've often blocked
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  humanitarian aid, saying they're worried it'll reach opposition
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  groups. That really hampers any effort
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  to de escalate things. So how does Malaysia, with its
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  emphasis on humanitarian issues and maybe a bit more willingness
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  to engage, plan to approach this?
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  Well, the focus for Malaysia will likely be on the
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  humanitarian crisis itself, especially point for the five
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  PC, the aid delivery part. And crucially, they've signaled
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  openness to engaging with all relevant stakeholders, which
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  could include ethnic armed groups.
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  That's aiming for a more inclusive dialogue.
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  Laos, as the 2024 chair, did manage to reengage Myanmar to
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  some extent. So Malaysia has a chance to
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  build on that. But realistically, major
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  breakthroughs on the core political issues?
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  Probably unlikely in just one year.
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  It's a very long game. OK, turning to the South China
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  Sea, another major headache. It directly impacts global
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  trade. The code of conduct talks, they
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  were meant to be done by 2021. Now it seems unlikely even for
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  2025. What's the hold up?
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  Why is it so difficult? Yeah, the code of conduct or Coc
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  progress has been incredibly slow.
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  It's just tangled up in so many conflicting claims and deep
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  distrust. And we've seen some really
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  worrying incidents. China's Coast Guard using water
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  cannons, military grade lasers against Philippine ships last
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  year. That kind of thing just makes
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  trust harder to build. Fundamentally, though, the big
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  stumbling block is China's reluctance to agree to anything
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  that might undermine its Nine dash line claim.
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  It's sweeping assertion of sovereignty over most of the sea
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  that makes a truly meaningful binding code very, very hard to
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  achieve. But Malaysia has a specific role
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  here now, right? They're the ASEAN China Dialogue
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  coordinator until 2027. How might that influence their
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  approach? That's right, it puts them in a
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  unique position. Malaysia can try to leverage its
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  historically decent relationship with China.
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  They were the first ASEAN nation to normalize ties way back.
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  Their preferred style seems to be more of a discreet approach,
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  trying to manage tensions quietly behind the scenes to
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  prevent things from escalating, rather than pushing for big
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  public announcements that might just fall flat.
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  So the goal for 2025 might not be a final COC, but more about
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  managing the day-to-day friction, keeping channels open,
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  and stopping things from getting worse.
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  You know, it's worth remembering these aren't just abstract
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  disputes. The South China Sea that affects
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  shipping lanes, vital for global trade, freedom of navigation,
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  the stability of that whole region.
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  It really does matter for economies everywhere, for the
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  international rules we all rely on.
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  Beyond just managing crises, though, Malaysia's chairmanship
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  seems to have a broader vision. This idea of prompting ASEAN to
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  look W What's that about? Yeah, this look W idea is about
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  deepening ties with the global S countries in the Middle East,
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  Central Asia. We saw the first ASEAN summit
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  with the Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC back in October
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  2023. Malaysia is actually hosting the
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  second one in 2025. There was even talk of inviting
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  Chinese leaders for a potential three-way summit.
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  It's about broadening Asians diplomatic horizons, building
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  more diverse partnerships beyond the usual US, China, Japan
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  focus. And we're also seeing movement
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  with the BRICS group, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South
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  Africa and no others. That's right, Malaysia.
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  Along with Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, they're now designated
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  BRICS partner countries. The strategy seems pretty clear.
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  Deepen economic ties, get more involved in multilateral forums
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  outside the western LED ones, and crucially create
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  alternatives to just being caught in the US China squeeze.
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  It's a way to reinforce their non alignment, give themselves
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  more options, more strategic autonomy.
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  It's quite a statement really. And on the digital front, this
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  Digital Economy Framework agreement DAFA planned for
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  signing in 2025, that sounds like a big deal for the future.
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  It really is. DAFA is meant to boost digital
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  trade with NSEN, create common rules, ensure AC for online
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  space, very important for future growth and it fits right into
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  the bigger picture. The ASEAN Economic Community's
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  Strategic Plan for 20/26/2030 The ambition there is huge for
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  ASEAN to become the world's fourth largest economy.
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  They see innovation, digitalization and
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  sustainability as the key drivers for that.
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  These aren't just buzzwords, they're core pillars of their
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  long term strategy. There's also this dynamic of new
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  leadership across ASEAN, lots of changes in the last few years.
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  What does that mean for actually getting things done for that
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  consensus ASEAN relies on? It means things might take a bit
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  more time. While you have leaders like
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  Anwar actively building relationships.
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  Forging that strong collective consensus across the board isn't
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  instant. Many leaders are still
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  relatively new in their roles and often, understandably,
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  domestic issues demand their immediate attention, sometimes
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  more than regional ones, especially sensitive ones like
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  the South China Sea. Personal relationships have
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  always been really important in ASEAN diplomacy, so rebuilding
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  that deep level of trust and understanding among leaders,
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  it's a gradual process. It's fascinating though, isn't
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  it? ASEAN isn't just playing the
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  game set by others, they're actively trying to reshape the
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  board. This look W the bricks
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  engagement, it feels like a real effort to avoid being defined
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  solely by the US. China rivalry almost A model for
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  other regions, perhaps? I think so.
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  It's about creating options, building multiple layers of
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  engagement, so if one relationship gets strained, they
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  have others to lean on. That's what strategic resilience
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  looks like in practice. It's definitely an example of
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  how diversification can empower a region.
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  OK, let's bring it down to specifics from recent summits.
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  The 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, May 2025, chaired by
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  Malaysia. That seemed to set some major
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  long term goals. What were the key takeaways?
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  That summit really laid down a marker for the future.
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  They endorsed ASEAN 2045, our shared future.
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  It's essentially their long term road map focused on
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  strengthening the political and security community, emphasizing
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  self-reliance. It guides their trajectory for
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  the next couple of decades. And significantly, the summit
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  also voiced serious concern about the war in Gaza, calling
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  for civilian protection. A2 state solution that shows
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  ASEAN stepping up maybe more than before, on global
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  humanitarian issues, not just regional ones.
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  How does taking a stance like that on Gaza fit into their
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  overall diplomacy, balancing global issues with their own
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  regional focus? It's a careful balancing act.
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  By speaking out on Gaza, ASEAN projects a certain moral
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  standing, aligns itself with concerns shared across the
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  global South and reinforces that non aligned position.
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  It's a way to show commitment to international norms and
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  principles even while jubbling all the complex regional stuff.
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  It signals they're not just navel gazing.
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  And looking back slightly earlier, the foreign ministers
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  meeting in July 2024, what stood out from that gathering?
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  That meeting really reinforced their strategy for engaging with
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  the outside world. Strong reaffirmation of the AGIN
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  outlook on the Indo Pacific, the AOIP.
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  That's their framework for dealing with external partners,
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  focusing on things like maritime cooperation, connectivity.
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  It's AGIN trying to define his own terms for Indo Pacific
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  engagement. They also flagged concerns about
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  rising nuclear risks, the potential downsides of
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  autonomous weapons and double down on tackling cybercrime.
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  Online scams, things like the Vientian Declaration aim at
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  practical cooperation there. So putting it all together,
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  these summits show as in trying to be really proactive, right?
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  Working on internal cohesion and managing external relationships
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  simultaneously. Quite the juggling act.
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  Exactly. It's a complex web, but the
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  clear intention is to shape their own destiny, build
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  resilience, and maintain their relevance in a world that's
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  frankly pretty turbulent. They're trying to write their
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  own future, not just have it dictated to them.
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  So as we we finish up this deep dive, it really leaves us with a
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  big question, doesn't it? With all these immense pressures
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  from outside and these ambitious plans for internal reform, can
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  ASEAN actually pull off its Community Vision 2045?
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  Can it become this resilient, sustainable, outward looking
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  force? Or will the sheer diversity of
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  interests among its members, that constant need for
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  consensus, ultimately hold it back?
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  What role do you, listening now, think a truly cohesive ASEAN
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  could play in making the world a bit more stable?
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  Something to think about. Thank you so much for joining us
• 17:14
  for this exploration of ASEAN's evolving role.
• 17:16
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  the links in the description. We'll be back soon with another
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  deep dive.