Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / We're Going To See An Implosion In High-End Condos: Guterman

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We're Going To See An Implosion In High-End Condos: Guterman · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa A. Brahmowitz. Each day
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: It is my pleasure to introduce Gerald Government. He is
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the senior principal partner and chief Investment Officer of Government Partners.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: He joins us here as an expert in all things
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: real estate and Gerald Government. I wonder if you could
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: just describe a little bit for people that may not
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: be familiar with your history and your company, what achievements
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: and accomplishments, because they are many, What you can just
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: describe to give people a little idea of your background. Sure,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: we're in business now a little over forty nine years.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Our year will be in a few months as a
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: matter of fact, that we have the same partners we
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: started in nineteen nine. Next year we're going to celebrate
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: the fiftieth year. We're actually going to sign our agreement.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: We never got around to signing it. Because we simply
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: couldn't afford the legal fee for an attorney to do it.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: But we are all each other's lifetime friends, and I'm
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: very lucky to have this kind of relationship with five
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other guys. UM to know what we do, we are
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: in the real estate business. Obviously, we are developers, builders,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: owner operators. On the development side, my company was the
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: original owners and developers of the residential portion of Roosevelt
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Dialect called Island House, and we owned it, we operated it. Uh.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: We owned the Glen Oaks Village, which was three thousand
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: apartments and queens. We owned a number of properties around Manhattan,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the Park Vendome to seven Street, fifty Sutton Place South
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: for twift Street. UM and the numbers. He's got a list,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: and it adds up to condiment apartments and rental and
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: rental apartments owned and managed. The largest condo owner and
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: operator at least in New York, if not in the
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: in the country. We finished now sixteen thousand and eight
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: departments through last year, which they tell me is about
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  Speaker 1: three and a half times the next largest in the
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  Speaker 1: New York area. So let's talk about the New York
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: area because we've seen cranes still up and bringing up
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: more buildings and more buildings. Uh. We were just talking
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: ahead of time about how the biggest problem for local
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: or residential real estate markets is overbuilding. Are we overbuilt
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  Speaker 1: in New York? And what is the consequence if we are,
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  Speaker 1: we're overbuilt to the price level that we're trying to
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  Speaker 1: sell or rent to. Uh. New York now has a
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: reputation that's shared by Miami and Houston, Texas. The reputation is,
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  Speaker 1: if you give a builder in New York a mortgage,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: you will build in the desert. There's just no limit
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: to the amount that will be built as long as
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: they can borrow the money. You know, it's a funny
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: thing about borrowing money. It's tax free, and a lot
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: of the building that goes on throughout the country has
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: to do with something called the first draw. The first
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: draw is exactly what it seems to be. It is
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the first amount you get from a lender. It is
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: tax free because it's alone, but it's also unaccountable. Because
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: it's unaccountable. Can you imagine all of the things you
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: can cover, all of the mistakes you can cover. And consequently,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: the first draw forces builders to build more because they
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: can't cover the course of what they built previously. So
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: are we heading toward the crash here with respect to
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  Speaker 1: the high ends, the mid to high ends condominium markets
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: or or or. I am convinced that UM, and a
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: reason that I've brought my people back to New York
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: because we work in a number of other states, UM,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: is that we are going to see an implosion of
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: these ridiculously high priced condominiums that have no reason to
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: have been built in the first place. They weren't based on,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: in my humble opinion, sound and reasonable thought. They were
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: based on hopes and dreams of being able to attract
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: folks from other countries who either had flight capital or
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: were simply trying to establish something for ego in the
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: United States. And I think you couldn't see from some
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  Speaker 1: of the prices that have been paid fifty million, seventy
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  Speaker 1: five hundred million dollars, what does that have to do
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  Speaker 1: with the time of day? That's simply an outsized ego
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: trying to be self satisfied. You have written about something
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: described as sleight of hand and magic, and it's not
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: about Whodini tell us how slight of hand and magic
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: factor into real estate investment. Oh yes, it's some of
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: my favorite things. What I have found over the years
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: is that when I noticed funds buying portfolios of properties,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: they were buying them for different reasons than what I
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: originally thought. I thought they were properly investing the money
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: and looking for a return. What I found was they
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  Speaker 1: were looking for magic. What they would do is they
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  Speaker 1: would buy a portfolio of maybe three, four, or five
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: or more properties, and the seller would agree to take
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  Speaker 1: the funds in total as one number, without apportioning the
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  Speaker 1: sale price to each property. So what was happening is
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: the buyer was now deciding on what the pro rata
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: share of purchase price would be of this total each
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: one of the properties. And when he did that, if
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: you think of it this way, it's really what happened.
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  Speaker 1: He could take his best property he was buying and
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  Speaker 1: put the lowest basis, and he could take the worst
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  Speaker 1: property he was buying an increase that basis out of
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: all reasonable thought. And consequently, when he went to sell first,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: his return on the on the best property became astronomical.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: When he went to sell, he was selling at a
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  Speaker 1: full spasis. Yeah, well, there are a lot of people
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: who are looking for magic, they might get something else.
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  Speaker 1: Gerald Gotterman, thank you so much. That was fantastic. Gerald
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  Speaker 1: Gotterman a senior principal partner at Government Partners, overseeing thousands
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  Speaker 1: and thousands of apartments. We get to speak to one
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: of the fifty most powerful women in New York. She
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: is sitting with us, Leslie Himmel. She is co managing
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  Speaker 1: partner of Himmel and Marrying Off Partners, private investor, private
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  Speaker 1: ut landlord in in New York City and with more
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: than thirty years of experience. Leslie, thank you so much
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: for being with us. Where are we right now with
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the New York commercial real estate market? We've heard a
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: lot about cooling off and pricing. How far is this
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: going to go? First of all, thank you for having
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: me on your show. Just to Contexas UM. Steve Marongolf
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: and I have been investors in Manhattan secondary office buildings
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: for the last thirty four years. We've been through many cycles.
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  Speaker 1: We feel like we've been at a tipping point for
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: actually a few years, waiting for interest rates to start
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: to rise. I was just on a panel where there
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: was a reference on oak Tree saying that there's a
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: correlation to cap rates of about point eight to one.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: As interest rates go up, so as interest rates rise,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: pricing should come down. There's been way too much money
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: chasing goods here. Cap rates were at three and four
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: for a few years, three three and four percent, maybe
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: even negative yields. And you've seen the bid ask spread
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: changing a lot. So it feels like there's going to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: be repricing. Although New York City is still the best
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: capital in the world and lots of international capital is
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: still coming here. I wonder if you could just take
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: a step back and tell us about Bernard Mendick and
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: what influence Bernie Mendick had on your career. Well, that's
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: a question I didn't expect. Bernie Mendick was the chair
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: of Redney and I knew him in my first real
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: estate board in New York. Yeah, yes, the real real
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Estate Board of New York. And UM, I had been
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: integrated resources in my start after Harvard Business School, and
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: he told me I was going to be nothing unless
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I started my own business. And and um that was
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: pretty brave. That was thirty five years ago for a
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: woman to try to start our own business as an
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: owner and developer, and um I did it. Was the
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: right advice. It was a great advice, and I've picked
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: a great partner. We've been partners thirty four years. He
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: made fun of me in a way because that was
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Bernie's style, and um, he was a great influence and
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I'm very grateful he passed away many years ago. But
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: he was a real entrepreneur and I've been able to
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: follow a little bit in his footsteps. You know. I
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: want to pick up on a point that you were
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: talking about with respect to foreign money coming into New York.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Have you seen that slow with possible capital restrictions from
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: China or just the slowing of the economy there. Canada
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: has increased they're investing in New York particularly was my
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: sub market that I focus on. Um, there's definitely been
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: a slowing down in Asian money, but there's still enormous
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: amount of capital coming here. UM also from Europe at
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: this point. So it's really just an interest rate story
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: from your perspective. The cooling it's there was interest rate
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: and also alternative investments as one can invest again in bonds.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: You see, even like Black Rocky had three three billion
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: dollars go out from their stocks in the last quarter,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: so you're seeing money flow from stocks into investing in
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: bond investments again, and and therefore, you know, real estate
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: we should catch up eventually with inflation. I think you
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: you'll still have a steady flow. We're not going We're
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: not going off a cliff this time. You've been quoted
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: as saying that Midtown Manhattan will look really different, but
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: it will take five years most likely ten. Tell us
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: how it will look different. Okay, but Lisa and I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: were talking before the show about our strategy for thirty
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: or four years has been buying in emerging neighborhoods. We
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: bought in Harlem, we butt in uh Soho, we bought
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: No Hoo, we bought a Longan City almost thirty years ago.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Midtown East is the new emerging market, and it's so
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: out right now. Tenants are paying more to be like
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Netflix paid hundred and twenty dollars a foot to be
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: on Little Broadway in eighteen Street. Nobody wants to be
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: in Midtown. The new zoning that we finally got after
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: eight years of fighting is going to help kickstart the
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: renovation and rebuilding of properties, and it's just going to reimagined.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: It's going to take at least five, maybe ten years
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: for it to come back. It's still an epicenter of
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: New York. Are you buying right now in Midtown East
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: or are you sitting on the sidelines for a while.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: We're waiting for pricing to get a little bit more realistic.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: But we have a word chest of a few hundred
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: million dollars ready to pounce with institutional partners to back
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: us up. How much do prices have to come down
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: to get in? They just have There has to be
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: more volume on the market and I think about ten
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: percent maybe fifteen rebuilding the rebuilding of Park Avenue. Do
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: you see that calculus changing at all? Well, I think
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Fisher Brothers had this fabulous contest where they had everything
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: being reimagined. Um, they're doing a great job in getting
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: creative and I think there'll be something happening in the
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: next five or ten years and it's necessary to make
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: it cool again. The recent announcement that JP Morgan is
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: going to tear down their building on Park Avenue build
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: a new bigger, better, brighter, taller, is that what's going
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: to happen. That's gonna be one example of many that
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: you're going to say they're the air rights transfer that
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: you can have from landmarks. That's happening in multiple buildings
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: right now. Is there any neighborhood in New York City
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: that you think could even see values appreciate going forward
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: in the next say two years, The boroughs really even
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: after Brooklyn already like well, the Opportunity Zone legislation is
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: going to bring a lot of money to the to
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: the Boroughs. All right, well done, Thank you very much
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: for being here and having us here at the Eisner
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Amper Global Leaders in Real Estate a Summit, and want
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: to thank you very much Leslie Himmel, co, Managing partner
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: at Himmel Marong Golf Properties, telling us all about New
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: York real estate. Well done at congratulations, Thank you so
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: much for having me right now. I want to introduce
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: a very special guest. We are privileged to be able
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: to speak with Don People's, the chairman and chief executive
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: of the People's Corporation, long time experience in the markets,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: a real good bird's eye view over what's going on.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So let's start there. We got more disappointing housing data today.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Where are we in the housing cycle? From your perspective, um,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I think that we are in a more in the
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: bottom half bottom of the cycle. Right now, I think
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: that the markets catching his breath. I mean everything's healthy.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I mean job growth, employment, everything's very healthy. I mean
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: cost have um had a big impact on affordability, and
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: so fewer people are able to buy right now because
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: not because of income issues, but because of the rising
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: and run up and cost and so the markets now
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: got to find its way back down. I mean developers,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you know, my company included, we were extremely optimistic that
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: this big run um of price increases would continue. And
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: it's it's not, and it shouldn't have. I mean what
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: happened is that we had the Great Recession. Development came
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: to a screeching halt up until say two thousand, late
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: two thousand, two thousand twelve, and there was huge pent
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: up demand. Well, the market has now satisfied that pent
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: up demand and now we're back on a more equilibrium level.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: So we can't have these big run ups on prices
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I mean cast of materials and cost of run up
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: significantly because of this big rush to develop. So now
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: things gonna settle down a little bit, and I think
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: we'll see a much more healthy market, barring some catastrophic event.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: The market is gonna level off. There'll be a normal
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: growth as opposed to this extreme volatility UM in the
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: in the real estate market. Just to step back for
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: a moment, Uh, you left Rutgers pre med to go
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: into real estate. Yeah, you did a major development in
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: d C that was successful. Then something happened. You decided
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: to go You want to go to Miami. Now you're
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: based in Coral Gables. You've got properties all over the
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: United States. But your tagline of the company is affirmative Development,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: and that's not by coincidence. Can you tell us about that? Well?
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Thank you, m'm and PIM. We like, you know, as
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: a company, we like geographic and product type diversification. So
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: I like to um do go into other markets, urban
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: gateway markets with big barriers to entry. UM. But you know,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I quit Rutgers to go work in real estate. And
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: I was exposed to real estate by my mother. UM.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: My mother raised me and my parents were divorced when
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: I was five, So she was a breadwinner in our household,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and she was knocking down you know, um and confronting
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: barriers throughout her career. Uh. And so I wanted to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: create an environment in my company that recognizes that we
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: need to make this a more level playing field. And
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: so how to do that is to make sure by
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: my company that we provide access to equal opportunities for
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: minority and women entrepreneurs. So as a whole, throughout our
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: company UM, we since the history of our company, twenty
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: five over of all of our contracts for our projects
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: have gone to minority and women owned businesses. I mean,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: so think about this New York City six or seven
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: percent minority and as we stand today and as fifty
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: three percent female, and if we stand today, the city
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: does less than three percent of its contract with minority
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: and women own businesses. So I'm very proud of that.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: And so that's a big part of what our company
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: UM does is we create environments of our opportunity. We
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: are a capitalistic democracy. A capitalistic democracy means that businesses lead,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: entrepreneurs innovate and lead. And so we cannot advocate this
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: responsibility of a of a of inclusiveness UM to the
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: public sector, and the private sector has a key role
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: to do that. Larry Thinks set that in his annual
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: letter to shareholders that UM, you know, black Rock has
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: to do more than just make profits, but invest UM
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: in an impact investing and I think big part of
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: that is that, you know, opportunities ought to be reflective
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: of the demographics of our society and they're not, and
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: especially in the business sector, and so businesses have to
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: accept that responsibility. And so that's what why we do
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: what we do. Businesses lead so to politicians, and the
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Washington Post reported that you're considering running for New York
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: City mayor. Is that still in the carts? Yeah, I mean, look,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I'm considering it, UM. I did before. UM. I don't
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: have a personal ambition UH to be in politics or
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: personal ambition to be a mayor of New York City.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: I never have had that kind of personal ambition, but
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: I do UM have a personal commitment to UM balancing
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: a system that you know makes our country great and
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: entrepreneurship and business is what makes America a great nation
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: amongst its people, and so we have a responsibility as
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: a business UM to do that. So I'm interested in
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: that regard. I'm curious as a business owner, do you
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: think that the policy is currently in place at a
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: national level are very supportive of business? Yes, but they
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: create UM unfortunately, how how they're being presented unfortunately, UM
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: are creating a great deal of divisiveness. And yeah, I
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: think less regulations good for entrepreneurship. I think, uh you know, um,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: more free flowing capital is good for entrepreneurship. I mean,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: but there are I mean, there's a there's an their
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: institutions also that are very important for our country as well,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: such as I mean the Federal Reserve. I mean that
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: should be immune from politics. UM. So so it's a
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: double edged store. Well, just to to amplify that, I mean,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: you are a congressional page, so you've seen it from
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: the inside, and now you see it from the other
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: side as well. Yes. In fact, I was a page
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: my last and an intern um my last few years
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: of high school. And so I have um watched UM
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: multiple presidents, every president since Carter. I've actually met them,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: and I've seen them in action. And I've been a
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: student of politics and and the ability to be transfer
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: of politics be transformative, and also how the nation has
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: changed and evolved. Civil rights movement happened in my lifetime, UM,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Women's rights, Um, you know, happened in my lifetime early
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: in my early in my adult life. UM. And so
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: I've seen a lot happen. So in twenty seconds, are
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: there any areas in the United States that you think
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: still could see price gains? You see US opportunities? Yes,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: I think Los Angeles is gonna see price gains. I
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: think uh, Charlotte UM is gonna see price games. Miami
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: and South Florida as a whole is gonna get another run,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: and Central Florida is gonna get another run. Those will
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: be in in Tennessee. UM. Those are where people are
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: moving to in businesses are moving to UM for different reasons,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: mainly for taxes, and so we'll see some more growth
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: in those markets. And of course you'll announce whether you're
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: gonna run from mayor with us, right, I mean, if
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: you decide to do that, if I decided to do that,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: I would certainly do that. All right, well done, Thanks
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: very much for being with us. Don Peebles he is
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the chairman and the chief executive of the People's Corporation.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: They are based in Coral Gables, Florida. Joining us now
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: that way, we have Jim Bianco. He is the president
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: and founder of Bianco Research. He is also a Bloomberg
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Opinion columnist. Jim Bianco, let's begin with President Donald Trump
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and his attack on j Pal chairman of the Federal Reserve.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Your reaction, I don't have a problem with it. I
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: know a lot of people do the Federal Reserve. I
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: kind of put in this kind of a parallel with
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. We always criticize the Supreme Court. Yes,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: the President could remove a Federal Reserve chairman for cause,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: but the hurdle is very, very high, and Trump has
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: said to the point so far that he doesn't want
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: to do that. But there's nothing wrong with the President
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: of the United Space expressing his opinion about monetary policy
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: in making the Federal Reserve explain themselves. If they believe
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: his criticism of monetary policy will affect it, then we
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: should frankly look for new Federal Reserve personnel that are
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: able to stomach somebody questioning what they're due. They are
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: not allowed to live in an ivy tower without criticism.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: And there's nothing wrong with what the President is doing. Now,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: maybe the words he's chosen, I would have chosen different words,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: but I don't have a problem with with what he's
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: attempting to do here. Do you think that he's right?
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Do you think that the Federal Reserve is raising rates
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: too quickly. I do think he's right, and I do
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: think the Federal Reserve is raising races too quickly. But
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I also would have said, even if I didn't believe
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: that it was okay for him to uh to do this.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: And I do think that the Federal Reserve should be asked,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: as J. Paul was in the first question of his
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: press conference in September two, only six the history of
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is you raise rates too much, something breaks,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: and then it's too late, we have a recession. There
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: is the leading cause of recessions over the last time
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: of years. Hold on a second, Jim, there is a
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: whole school of thought that at a certain point keeping
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: rates too low is harmful for the economy. That if
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: you raise rates and actually people can earn some money
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: on their cash, they can actually use it to go
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: out and spend and it actually boosts growth. What do
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: you say to that. I absolutely agree with that that
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: monetary policy in the extreme either way creates dislocations in
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: the economy. Too low can create problems, too high can
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: create problems. The question is whether or not they're going
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: too high. One of the leading indicators that says the
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: FETs move too much is an inverted deal curve. We
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: don't have that now, but we are on our way
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: towards one. Especially if the FETE intends on raising rates
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: four more times between now in the end of next year,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: we could very well be at an inverted deal curve.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: And when the FETE is asked about this, they dismissed
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: the yel curve. We've done that every cycle. They dismissed it,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: and it always turns out to be a good indicator.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: And um, when asked, yeah, just back to my thing.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: When I asked that, the first question of the presser
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: in September, uh, are you gonna go till something breaks?
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: How uncharacteristically did not have any answer for that. He
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: just basically said, you know, we're smart people and hopefully
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: we'll figure it out before we get there. They don't
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: know where the breaking point is. So that's why I
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: think it's fair to ask those questions. This is dangerous stuff.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: When you raise rates eight times, planner raising rates four
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: more times. History has shown you cause problems when you
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: do this. That's your history, and there's got to be
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: a better answer than hopefully we won't create another problem
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: again this time we'll see. That seems to be what
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: they said. They're saying right now, Jim Bianco. If you
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: happen to be an investor that is long stocks, what's
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: the best hedge against the market sell off? If you
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: don't want to sell them. Um, that's a good question
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: because what's happening in the marketplace now, excuse me, is
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: that the relationships between stocks and bonds and all the
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: other assets is becoming very correlated, meaning they all move
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: up and down together. Meaning if you want to look,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: what do I do with my money if the stock
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: market is not working, the answer is there's not much
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: you can do except for cash. If you want to
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: move to cash, that's always a safe instrument to put
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: your money in your you you earn two percent because
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: that's about where cash is, but you don't take any
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: downside risk. If the question then is why anything but cash,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the answer is there is no option. That has been
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: the biggest problem with the market this year is the
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: recorrelation of all of these markets together. Your cover story
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: in Bloomberg magazine about what's happening at a q R
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: and the problems they're having is a direct result of this.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Is that all of these markets are becoming very correlated,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: and it's been a very difficult problem a lot of people.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Jim Bianco, we love having you on. Thank you so
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: much for being with us. Jim Bianco is president and
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: founder of Bianco Research Research, as well as a Bloomberg
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: opinion columnist. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio