Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Parlays, Incentives & Resolutions | NFL Week 18
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
- 0:13Speaker 1: is yours. Happy Friday, Happy twenty twenty six. NFL Week
- 0:18Speaker 1: eighteen is upon us. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my
- 0:21Speaker 1: two faves and your two faves, the Prime Minister of
- 0:24Speaker 1: Degenerate Nation Stuckey, and the Queen of the Pod, Miss
- 0:28Speaker 1: Kendra Middleton. You guys look as young as you did
- 0:32Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. On today's episode, we're going to
- 0:35Speaker 1: submit our official plays for the week. We've got our
- 0:37Speaker 1: stat of the Day courtesy of Evan Abrams coming up
- 0:40Speaker 1: in a moment, two Kings and a Queen parlay. We've
- 0:42Speaker 1: got some Sling TV nominations to get to as well.
- 0:46Speaker 1: Three games that Kendra has excluded from the Rundown Chiefs, Raiders, Cowboys, Giants, Vikings, Packers. Sayonara, Kendra,
- 0:57Speaker 1: are we sticking with that these games not.
- 0:59Speaker 2: To be discussed?
- 1:01Speaker 3: Dead to me? He who shall not.
- 1:03Speaker 2: Be named, Yeah, I'm good with that.
- 1:05Speaker 1: Let's kick things off with Evans shrimply unbelievable stat of
- 1:09Speaker 1: the week straight from the primer, the thirteen and three
- 1:12Speaker 1: Seahawks and the twelve and four San Francisco forty nine Ers.
- 1:16Speaker 1: They play Saturday night for the NFC West Crown since
- 1:20Speaker 1: nineteen ninety. This is just the second Week seventeen or
- 1:23Speaker 1: Week eighteen divisional matchup in which both teams have a
- 1:26Speaker 1: seventy five percent win percentage. The other was last year
- 1:30Speaker 1: the Vikings and the Lions Week eighteen game, also featuring
- 1:35Speaker 1: Sam Darnald in a game that was won by the
- 1:38Speaker 1: Detroit Lions. Donald's stat line in that game eighteen of
- 1:42Speaker 1: forty one, one hundred and sixty six yards with a
- 1:45Speaker 1: QB rating of fifty five stucky. Should we be concerned
- 1:50Speaker 1: about a Sam Darnald pressure spot meltdown type of game.
- 1:56Speaker 4: No, I wouldn't say meltdown. I mean in that game
- 2:01Speaker 4: he was under a ton of pressure. But the forty
- 2:05Speaker 4: nine ers are incapable of generating any pressure. So I
- 2:08Speaker 4: think a lot of clean pockets stop right in and when
- 2:11Speaker 4: you can get pressure on Donald, that's when he really
- 2:13Speaker 4: starts to falter. But I will say I don't that
- 2:16Speaker 4: this Seattle offense is trending in the wrong direction. I mean,
- 2:22Speaker 4: if you look at it's basically in the tail of
- 2:24Speaker 4: two seasons. First nine weeks of the year, they were
- 2:29Speaker 4: second in drop back EPA per play, Donald had sixteen touchdowns,
- 2:33Speaker 4: five interceptions, twenty one to four big time throw to
- 2:37Speaker 4: turnover worthy play rate elite numbers. However, since Week ten,
- 2:42Speaker 4: they've fallen all the way to twenty third in the league,
- 2:45Speaker 4: and drop back EPA per play Donald has the same
- 2:47Speaker 4: number of touchdowns and interceptions, so he went from twenty
- 2:50Speaker 4: one to four ratio to nine to nine, eight big
- 2:54Speaker 4: time throws, fourteen turnover worthy plays. I think this offense
- 2:58Speaker 4: has been figured out a bit. They use a lot
- 3:01Speaker 4: of heavy personnel, they're very reliant on play action. Teams
- 3:04Speaker 4: are just saying, hey, you can run the ball if
- 3:06Speaker 4: you want. We're gonna take away the explosive passing play.
- 3:09Speaker 4: We're gonna bracket JSN make sure he doesn't beat us.
- 3:12Speaker 4: And that's really put this Seattle offense in a bit
- 3:16Speaker 4: of a blender, you know, And it really started in
- 3:19Speaker 4: Week ten. They got away with it for a couple
- 3:21Speaker 4: of weeks. You wouldn't be able to tell by their
- 3:23Speaker 4: scorers because they were scoring on defense and special teams.
- 3:27Speaker 4: But this offense is not operating anywhere close to the
- 3:32Speaker 4: same level that it was in the first half of
- 3:34Speaker 4: the year. And that's what you can expect from the
- 3:36Speaker 4: forty nine Ers year. It is a bad defense, especially
- 3:40Speaker 4: since losing Warner and Bosa. I think they haven't had
- 3:43Speaker 4: either since Week seven, and over that time frame they
- 3:46Speaker 4: rank thirtieth in success rate, ahead of only the Cardinals
- 3:50Speaker 4: and Commanders. So it's a bad defense. They can't get pressure.
- 3:53Speaker 4: So you know what Sale is gonna do here is
- 3:55Speaker 4: he's going to play a lot of deep zone. He's
- 3:57Speaker 4: going to force Seattle to methodically drive the field without
- 4:01Speaker 4: you know, Darnald making a mistake, which he's always prone toing. Hope,
- 4:04Speaker 4: hopefully they can find a way to get a pressure
- 4:07Speaker 4: or two on Keith third down to force a stop.
- 4:09Speaker 4: So I don't think this has a Darnald disaster game
- 4:12Speaker 4: written all over just because of the quality of the
- 4:15Speaker 4: San Francisco defense, but it's definitely a concern come playoff time.
- 4:20Speaker 4: And you do have to keep in mind that Seattle
- 4:23Speaker 4: is most likely without their left tackle again and that's
- 4:25Speaker 4: been an issue as well.
- 4:27Speaker 1: Yeah, we have both tackles that are questionable in this game,
- 4:31Speaker 1: so perhaps evening out between Trent Williams and Charles cross.
- 4:36Speaker 4: Kittle two is questionable, which is just massive, Like you
- 4:38Speaker 4: can get away with that against I mean the forty
- 4:41Speaker 4: nine ers. Their offense has been on fire, but I
- 4:43Speaker 4: mean they have played some horrendous defenses over the past
- 4:48Speaker 4: six weeks. I mean they've played the Titans, the Panthers,
- 4:55Speaker 4: the Bears. Who else I'm trying to think of. Who
- 5:02Speaker 4: am I forgetting? Oh, the Cardinals and the Colts. The
- 5:06Speaker 4: Colts had no corners. The Cardinals entire defense was hurt.
- 5:09Speaker 4: Tennis these defense was hurt as well. Chicago's dealing with injuries.
- 5:13Speaker 4: So you know, you'd take those four teams who are
- 5:15Speaker 4: really bad defenses and at injuries. They averaged forty two
- 5:18Speaker 4: points per game, But if you look at the other
- 5:20Speaker 4: two games Cleveland, they only averaged three point nine yards
- 5:25Speaker 4: per play. They got a bunch of short fields, some
- 5:27Speaker 4: fluky stuff. And then against the against Carolina, it was
- 5:30Speaker 4: also a below average defense, not terrible, but not a
- 5:33Speaker 4: good defense. Party through three interceptions. So there's a little
- 5:37Speaker 4: bit of fools gold in this forty nine Ers offense
- 5:39Speaker 4: because of the level of competition they face. No doubt,
- 5:42Speaker 4: party's on fire and the offense is rolling, but they
- 5:45Speaker 4: definitely face a pretty easy schedule of late you can
- 5:49Speaker 4: get away without Kittle without having Kittle in those games,
- 5:52Speaker 4: but against Seattle its number two in EPA per play
- 5:55Speaker 4: on defense. I think you need him. Not only do
- 5:57Speaker 4: you need his playmaking, but you need his blocking in
- 5:59Speaker 4: the run game, especially if Williams can't go. So that's
- 6:02Speaker 4: a big one to.
- 6:03Speaker 2: Watch, Kendra.
- 6:04Speaker 1: How about this As far as Brock Purty goes, the
- 6:06Speaker 1: forty nine ers are seven to one outright, six and
- 6:09Speaker 1: two against the spread when Brock Party starts a game
- 6:12Speaker 1: this year, So not only on fire statistically, but on
- 6:15Speaker 1: fire in terms of those that have been backing San Francisco.
- 6:20Speaker 5: Let me ask you guys this, because this is what
- 6:23Speaker 5: I'm looking at in this game. The Coach of the
- 6:25Speaker 5: Year race is probably the closest in all of the awards.
- 6:30Speaker 3: In my opinion.
- 6:30Speaker 5: You gotta think Ben Johnson, you gotta think Liam Cohen,
- 6:32Speaker 5: and you got to think these two guys. Does the
- 6:35Speaker 5: winner of this game kind of maybe become our Coach
- 6:39Speaker 5: of the Year.
- 6:43Speaker 1: Let's see where the odds are right now, because I'm
- 6:46Speaker 1: with you as far as the trying to figure out
- 6:50Speaker 1: who to give this award to is a total crapshoot
- 6:53Speaker 1: because there's so many coaches that deserve this, and Mike
- 6:55Speaker 1: Rabel is a big part of that with the turnaround.
- 6:58Speaker 3: Yeah him two.
- 6:59Speaker 5: I just think the correct I was gonna say, I
- 7:02Speaker 5: think the current discourse surrounding the Patriots, like regardless if
- 7:06Speaker 5: if it like right now, they're just allegations and there's
- 7:09Speaker 5: no way to have an opinion about allegations. But I
- 7:11Speaker 5: think some of that noise surrounding the Patriots right now
- 7:15Speaker 5: is silently going to hurt him.
- 7:17Speaker 2: So Rabel is the odds on favorite. He's minus. He's
- 7:19Speaker 2: the only one with minus odds. He's at minus.
- 7:22Speaker 3: That's kind of crazy to me.
- 7:24Speaker 1: And Shanahan is right behind him, and to me, that's
- 7:26Speaker 1: I've been on the the forty nine ers are underrated
- 7:30Speaker 1: train here. But even that, I think Liam Cohen maybe
- 7:34Speaker 1: it's the state of Florida.
- 7:35Speaker 3: Johnson though, like.
- 7:37Speaker 1: Ben Johnson's thirty five to one and Sean Payton, it
- 7:40Speaker 1: should also be mentioned. I mean, I just don't even
- 7:42Speaker 1: know where to go with this. To me, it's not
- 7:45Speaker 1: like a betable angle to this, because I have no idea.
- 7:48Speaker 1: You just flip several coins here.
- 7:50Speaker 4: I think that if the San Francisco wins, it's Shanahan
- 7:54Speaker 4: gets it. If they lose, it's rabel because if Shannan
- 7:58Speaker 4: gets this team to the one seed, right like without
- 8:03Speaker 4: with all the injuries that they've had on defense. I
- 8:05Speaker 4: mean everyone including me was basically writing them off.
- 8:08Speaker 2: And half the season with the backup quarterback too.
- 8:10Speaker 4: Backup quarterback. You know, they've had injuries on an offense
- 8:13Speaker 4: too that they've had to deal with, you know, Brandon
- 8:15Speaker 4: Ayuk like there, Pierce, Yeah, yeah, I think that that's
- 8:23Speaker 4: that's how it's going to go. But I don't know.
- 8:25Speaker 4: I'm not an award expert, but I think if the
- 8:27Speaker 4: forty nine ers win, small underdogs, then you got to
- 8:31Speaker 4: give it to Shanahan. If not, I think you give
- 8:33Speaker 4: it to Raybels. Assuming that they win. I think that's
- 8:36Speaker 4: how it's going to go. But if you're looking for
- 8:40Speaker 4: an actionable award, bet I look at Dee and an
- 8:47Speaker 4: ap NFL Defensive Player of the Year Miles Garrett minus
- 8:53Speaker 4: twenty thousand. So if you want to bet one hundred
- 8:55Speaker 4: dollars to win fifty cents, that's a that's a winner
- 8:58Speaker 4: right there. I'm kidding, but I don't know. I think
- 9:01Speaker 4: that that's how it's gonna get up. But we'll be hussy.
- 9:03Speaker 1: By the way, as we're talking about this on Draft Kings,
- 9:06Speaker 1: Ben Johnson went from thirty five to one to thirty
- 9:08Speaker 1: to one.
- 9:09Speaker 3: So, Kendrick, I think that that's so crazy.
- 9:12Speaker 2: What are you doing right? Moving lines? Oh?
- 9:15Speaker 3: Baby?
- 9:16Speaker 5: Maybe who's to say, I've only been talking about it
- 9:19Speaker 5: at work all week?
- 9:20Speaker 1: Okay, well there's something to that. Then back to football
- 9:22Speaker 1: in a moment. Time to do this for the first
- 9:24Speaker 1: time in twenty twenty six, Let's delve into the weird,
- 9:27Speaker 1: the bizarre, the random as we kick it over to
- 9:29Speaker 1: Stucky for a random Question of the week.
- 9:31Speaker 3: Hey, this is a dumb question.
- 9:34Speaker 2: Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?
- 9:37Speaker 4: Is that is question if you could only choose two
- 9:43Speaker 4: sports to watch and beat to all other sports, and
- 9:48Speaker 4: like college football is separate from NFL, Like, so you
- 9:52Speaker 4: think about like a betting menu on DraftKings, like you
- 9:55Speaker 4: can only choose two and those are the only ones
- 9:56Speaker 4: you can watch too, so you got to take I have.
- 9:58Speaker 5: A question, So what like the would I have to
- 10:01Speaker 5: choose between like the Premier League, the World Cup and
- 10:04Speaker 5: the Olympics or what could I just say soccer?
- 10:07Speaker 2: Now you can just say soccer so much ground.
- 10:11Speaker 4: So now, but yeah, let's make it. Let's just make
- 10:15Speaker 4: it American sports. So just American sports. So you could say,
- 10:19Speaker 4: like I mean, if you wanted to say MLS, but
- 10:21Speaker 4: no one's going to say that, So just Americans sports.
- 10:23Speaker 4: So it's like NBA, NHL, NFL, college football, college basketball.
- 10:30Speaker 4: You could say like F one, Kendra, or NASCAR or anything,
- 10:35Speaker 4: but you can only choose to The rest are completely dead.
- 10:38Speaker 4: You don't even know scores, you can't bet it, you
- 10:40Speaker 4: can't watch it. It's blacked out on your phone and
- 10:43Speaker 4: your TV.
- 10:44Speaker 1: Oh god, this is so ridiculously easy for me. I'm
- 10:46Speaker 1: just going to answer and then like Kendra hem and
- 10:48Speaker 1: hall over her response, NFL NBA, next question, I would
- 10:54Speaker 1: miss betting on Major League Baseball, but there's no way
- 10:57Speaker 1: I'd give up the NFL or the NBA from a
- 11:00Speaker 1: viewing or from a gambling perspective.
- 11:02Speaker 2: So that, to me, this is so easy one.
- 11:04Speaker 4: The tough thing about the NFL, though, is I mean,
- 11:08Speaker 4: now they're taking over like every day of the year,
- 11:11Speaker 4: but like it's only the majority of it is like
- 11:15Speaker 4: eighteen regular season days, right, So like when it comes
- 11:21Speaker 4: to like betting and watching, like the consider the good
- 11:24Speaker 4: the consideration with NBA, NHL, MLB is you have games
- 11:29Speaker 4: like every day for months and months and months and months.
- 11:34Speaker 4: So that's the only tough that's the tough thing about
- 11:37Speaker 4: the NFL. So I think, as this is really tough
- 11:40Speaker 4: for me, Kendro, I'll let you go first.
- 11:42Speaker 1: It would be really tough to not bet on March
- 11:44Speaker 1: Madness as well.
- 11:46Speaker 3: You can't even watch it. I have to.
- 11:49Speaker 5: I have to say, if we're just doing American sports,
- 11:52Speaker 5: I'm gonna say NFL and college football because those are
- 11:55Speaker 5: like my two favorites, and I'm fine with it just
- 11:59Speaker 5: being like a grind for like twenty five weeks a
- 12:01Speaker 5: year and then living your life the rest of the time,
- 12:03Speaker 5: especially when the weather's nice. But if we weren't just
- 12:05Speaker 5: doing it's it's close with half one for me, but
- 12:09Speaker 5: football forever and always. But if we were allowed to
- 12:11Speaker 5: do international sports, I would say the NFL and soccer.
- 12:17Speaker 2: I would not be able to drop soccer from my list.
- 12:19Speaker 3: Fast enough, uncultured swine.
- 12:23Speaker 1: That sport is I've tried in culture. You have a
- 12:26Speaker 1: team in my backyard in Orlando.
- 12:28Speaker 2: I can't. I just can't do it.
- 12:30Speaker 3: Because you're watching the MLS.
- 12:32Speaker 2: Well even internationally.
- 12:34Speaker 1: I understand, like I get into the World Cup to
- 12:36Speaker 1: a degree, But if I was told tomorrow soccer has
- 12:40Speaker 1: been canceled across the globe, I would have zero reaction
- 12:44Speaker 1: to it.
- 12:45Speaker 3: Uncultured boo the sport.
- 12:48Speaker 4: That's if I could never choose NBA as one of
- 12:52Speaker 4: my two sports. Imagine I'd have to care about the
- 12:54Speaker 4: NBA regular season and watch it.
- 12:55Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's my daily life. So funny.
- 12:59Speaker 4: So I'm crossing off. And then yeah, I mean the
- 13:05Speaker 4: way that I look at it, my grind now, I
- 13:06Speaker 4: mean I used to bet MLB every day. I don't
- 13:08Speaker 4: really have an edge anymore, and I kind of have
- 13:11Speaker 4: just dabble now. So I'm taking my summer and my
- 13:17Speaker 4: spring just to do football and maybe college basketball prep
- 13:22Speaker 4: and travel and relax. So I got to cover like
- 13:26Speaker 4: August two, the end of March. My first love is
- 13:31Speaker 4: college basketball, and that is like every day games every
- 13:35Speaker 4: day from you know, November through March madness. So that's one,
- 13:40Speaker 4: and then it comes down to NFL or college football.
- 13:43Speaker 4: I mean, there's more games in college football, so I
- 13:47Speaker 4: got to go college football. So I'm going to go
- 13:48Speaker 4: all college I guess I'm wearing BBOC. It would sough
- 13:51Speaker 4: to give up the NFL. But that's why this is
- 13:53Speaker 4: a tough question, Evan, What do you got.
- 13:56Speaker 6: My order of just events of things like this would
- 13:59Speaker 6: be NFL, March bad in this, World Cup, college football,
- 14:01Speaker 6: and then NHL, NBA.
- 14:03Speaker 7: And MLB playoffs.
- 14:07Speaker 2: Ten sports.
- 14:08Speaker 6: So NFL and March Madness, I guess would be the
- 14:10Speaker 6: answers if it's college basketball.
- 14:11Speaker 7: But I probably go NFL and World Cup.
- 14:16Speaker 4: You have to choose. You have to choose one. You
- 14:19Speaker 4: can only bet this this sport. You can't bet any
- 14:22Speaker 4: other sport. Do you only get you too?
- 14:24Speaker 6: Then I'd probably go NFL and college football if it's
- 14:28Speaker 6: just like a whole sport that I have to bet on.
- 14:31Speaker 4: Unless so, yeah, I'm going I'm going all college for
- 14:35Speaker 4: the volume. But yeah, dropping NFL would I have to
- 14:39Speaker 4: really think about it.
- 14:40Speaker 1: I would save me so much money if I dropped
- 14:42Speaker 1: the NFL. It is the hard I find the NFL
- 14:45Speaker 1: to be the toughest. It's the most fun sport to bet,
- 14:48Speaker 1: but also the most aggravating.
- 14:50Speaker 4: I make super the most efficient of any of the
- 14:54Speaker 4: major sports out there by.
- 14:55Speaker 1: Far, and you just get so emotionally invested. It's just
- 14:59Speaker 1: such a uh you wait all week for it, and.
- 15:03Speaker 3: The one because there's only twenty drive Well, now there's
- 15:06Speaker 3: twenty two drives.
- 15:06Speaker 4: One that is I think I would drop that fast.
- 15:09Speaker 4: Thann NBA be.
- 15:11Speaker 7: Fair crap, but you don't really wait all week for
- 15:12Speaker 7: the NFL anymore.
- 15:13Speaker 3: So yes, yeah, fair, we're roasted.
- 15:18Speaker 1: We're a full slate. But yes, uh you know what,
- 15:22Speaker 1: give me Tuesday games? Okay, Tyger waiting as it is,
- 15:24Speaker 1: Let's get the action or distraction.
- 15:26Speaker 4: This is distracted, distracted.
- 15:28Speaker 3: I'm not stacked.
- 15:29Speaker 4: I want it on the action.
- 15:34Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson says that he is playing on Sunday night
- 15:36Speaker 1: against the Steelers. He says that he will be out
- 15:40Speaker 1: there one hundred percent. The line is not budged. So
- 15:43Speaker 1: I guess everybody just assumed that this would be the case.
- 15:46Speaker 2: Action or distraction.
- 15:48Speaker 1: Kendra on Lamar's health heading into this game, is that
- 15:52Speaker 1: enough to make you want in or out of either side?
- 15:57Speaker 5: I I hate to use the word lean, but I
- 16:00Speaker 5: lean Ravens anyway, especially because we all knew that this
- 16:02Speaker 5: was the direction it.
- 16:03Speaker 3: Was gonna go.
- 16:05Speaker 5: My apprehension to get into this game is just because
- 16:10Speaker 5: I think that people, everyone is an idiot. I'm scared
- 16:14Speaker 5: they're not going to play Derek Henry. I'm scared Lamar
- 16:16Speaker 5: is gonna get hurt again. I am scared of this situation.
- 16:20Speaker 5: And it's insane that this unhinged asshole Lions fan is
- 16:25Speaker 5: probably going to dictate the AFC North and I am
- 16:28Speaker 5: not happy about it because if DK's in this game,
- 16:31Speaker 5: he's good for a point and a half. This is
- 16:34Speaker 5: a lot different, Like, this is a lot different. We're
- 16:36Speaker 5: having a very different discussion here, and I just hate
- 16:40Speaker 5: that this is how we are going to get this
- 16:43Speaker 5: game now, so too many question marks. Like I said, Lean, Ravens,
- 16:47Speaker 5: we all knew this was going to happen. If you
- 16:49Speaker 5: love the Ravens, I'm sure this makes you feel better.
- 16:51Speaker 1: I think lean hate of quick sidebar has gone too far.
- 16:55Speaker 1: If you're in the sports betting content industry, you can't
- 17:00Speaker 1: shouldn't bet on everything, but you should probably have an
- 17:03Speaker 1: opinion on everything. And I hear that far too often
- 17:06Speaker 1: and people are like, Ah, this person said Lean, that's
- 17:09Speaker 1: so lame.
- 17:10Speaker 2: What do you want? Do you want?
- 17:11Speaker 3: People have a synonym?
- 17:13Speaker 1: Had a Yeah, let's come up with a different word
- 17:15Speaker 1: for it, because it's probably overused. But I just offer
- 17:18Speaker 1: you some reprieve. I think lean hate has gone too far.
- 17:21Speaker 1: What about you, Stuckey? Where are you at on this
- 17:23Speaker 1: on this game? I'm on the sidelines as it stands
- 17:26Speaker 1: right now.
- 17:28Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, I don't know that's I think the
- 17:32Speaker 4: right answer, because we just don't know what Lamar is
- 17:37Speaker 4: going to look like and is he really one hundred percent?
- 17:41Speaker 4: And if not, is he ninety? Is he eighty? Is
- 17:43Speaker 4: he seventy? He's had so many injuries all year, and
- 17:46Speaker 4: we really we've seen just like a couple of flashes
- 17:50Speaker 4: here and there, but we haven't really seen the full Lamar.
- 17:55Speaker 4: I think that's a stretch to expect him to be
- 17:58Speaker 4: fully offy with the same and then that impacts And
- 18:02Speaker 4: by the way, the Steelers have done as good of
- 18:04Speaker 4: a job against Lamar with their defense as any team
- 18:09Speaker 4: in the league. But if he just doesn't have that
- 18:11Speaker 4: same burst and you know, mobility, that impacts the entire
- 18:16Speaker 4: rushing game.
- 18:18Speaker 3: He was allegedly going to play this weekend.
- 18:20Speaker 2: That's big.
- 18:22Speaker 4: Who's that?
- 18:23Speaker 2: T J?
- 18:24Speaker 4: Yeah, and the Steelers defense should be healthier this week.
- 18:29Speaker 4: For what it's worth, This is I always bring the
- 18:31Speaker 4: stat up because it's pretty crazy when these two teams
- 18:34Speaker 4: have played since Harball and Tomlin have been there any
- 18:40Speaker 4: whenever the underdog of three or more points is twenty three.
- 18:45Speaker 4: So twenty wins, three losses, and three pushes twenty and
- 18:51Speaker 4: three against the spread. That's insane. The underdog catching three
- 18:56Speaker 4: or more in this matchup. They're usually close, they're usually
- 18:59Speaker 4: low scoring. I do think, I mean you said Mecha
- 19:02Speaker 4: might be worth one and a half points. It might
- 19:03Speaker 4: be more than that, honestly, because yeah.
- 19:06Speaker 3: I think that that's what books would give him. But
- 19:07Speaker 3: I agree with you, it's more.
- 19:08Speaker 4: And like it's because they just don't have anyone else
- 19:12Speaker 4: who can get open, and you don't have to just
- 19:15Speaker 4: the gravity of Metcalf when he's out there, and they
- 19:18Speaker 4: haven't hit explosive plays all year except for that game
- 19:20Speaker 4: against Baltimore earlier this season, but a lot of that
- 19:23Speaker 4: was Metcalf, and you just don't have to you don't
- 19:25Speaker 4: have to respect any of the other receivers, so that
- 19:27Speaker 4: enables you to defend the run and dedicate more resources
- 19:31Speaker 4: to the box. Now, the one thing is the Ravens
- 19:32Speaker 4: don't get much pressure, so maybe Rogers will be more
- 19:34Speaker 4: comfortable than he was last week. Against Cleveland, which can
- 19:37Speaker 4: get pressured in the league level. But you just don't know.
- 19:40Speaker 4: On Lamar, I think that it's smart to probably play him,
- 19:46Speaker 4: and he gives you the best chance to win a
- 19:48Speaker 4: super Bowl because part of me says, like, look, Huntley
- 19:51Speaker 4: would be fine to win this game. The running game
- 19:53Speaker 4: was cooking with him, but like, Huntley's not winning the
- 19:57Speaker 4: super Bowl. So you want to get Lamar back, see
- 19:59Speaker 4: if you can win this game, and then get them
- 20:02Speaker 4: back into like a flow of rhythm looking healthy going
- 20:05Speaker 4: into the playoffs, because honestly, if the Ravens get in,
- 20:08Speaker 4: they can they could go to the super Bowl. I mean,
- 20:12Speaker 4: you look at the a f C W who are
- 20:14Speaker 4: you really really scared of?
- 20:16Speaker 7: No one?
- 20:17Speaker 3: Anybody?
- 20:19Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what I mean.
- 20:19Speaker 1: So long for the Ravens to look like that team
- 20:22Speaker 1: and it hasn't happened yet.
- 20:24Speaker 4: So yeah, but I mean they still could even if
- 20:27Speaker 4: even the version that we've seen, they can still go
- 20:29Speaker 4: to the super Bowl. In the AFC, like, the FC
- 20:32Speaker 4: is that wide open. It's not even about the Ravens
- 20:34Speaker 4: being that much better than everyone, it's just that it's
- 20:36Speaker 4: wide open. I think, like like the Bills have major flaws.
- 20:39Speaker 4: The Jags are probably playing better than anyone. Those two
- 20:41Speaker 4: teams are gonna probably play each other in the first round.
- 20:45Speaker 4: So yeah, so like Texans won't be easy for they
- 20:51Speaker 4: gets too. They're probably going to play in the first round.
- 20:54Speaker 4: But they can make a run. But in order to
- 20:56Speaker 4: do that you need Lamar, you know, at eighty ninety percent. So,
- 20:59Speaker 4: but from a betting perspective, you're just guessing because his
- 21:04Speaker 4: accuracy has also been off since he came back from injury,
- 21:08Speaker 4: his on target rate, his catchull ball rate, and now
- 21:11Speaker 4: with a back injury, how does that impact it? I
- 21:13Speaker 4: don't think anyone can really say with much confidence. I
- 21:16Speaker 4: think the one bet worth making in this game at
- 21:18Speaker 4: forty one or better is the under. The Steelers offense
- 21:21Speaker 4: is just so limited without Metcalf, huge divisional game, a
- 21:25Speaker 4: lot on the line. I think you'll see both teams
- 21:28Speaker 4: play close to the best divisional matchups second time around
- 21:32Speaker 4: usually trend under in the NFL, so I think this
- 21:35Speaker 4: will be like a lower scoring game like twenty to
- 21:37Speaker 4: seventeen ish, So I would look at the under. I
- 21:41Speaker 4: just I don't know on the mar so I can't
- 21:43Speaker 4: really have much confidence in either side.
- 21:45Speaker 1: The Steelers are seven and two outright and against the
- 21:48Speaker 1: spread against the Ravens since twenty twenty one.
- 21:50Speaker 2: For what it's worth, the.
- 21:52Speaker 1: Packers are locked into the seventh seed in the NFC.
- 21:55Speaker 1: They'll open the playoffs of the wild card game on
- 21:58Speaker 1: the road against either the Bears or the Eagles. We
- 22:01Speaker 1: know that the Vikings have been eliminated from playoff contention,
- 22:05Speaker 1: and it looks like they're going with Brosma in this game.
- 22:07Speaker 1: But Stucky, action or distraction on this being a good
- 22:10Speaker 1: idea for the Packers to basically punt to the playoffs
- 22:14Speaker 1: given their lack of recent momentum.
- 22:16Speaker 2: They've lost three straight and they're.
- 22:19Speaker 1: Just gonna roll out with that same crew in the
- 22:22Speaker 1: playoffs as if they're able to fix all of it.
- 22:24Speaker 2: So is there action or distraction on that being a
- 22:26Speaker 2: good idea?
- 22:27Speaker 4: Wait? I thought it was. I thought McCarthy was in
- 22:29Speaker 4: line to start. Am I wrong on that?
- 22:31Speaker 6: Oh?
- 22:31Speaker 2: Let me double check that. But either way, on the
- 22:33Speaker 2: Green Bay side.
- 22:35Speaker 4: I think McCarthy. It hasn't been confirmed yet, but I.
- 22:37Speaker 2: Think he logged the full practice.
- 22:38Speaker 4: Yeah, I think he's going to start, and it's gonna
- 22:41Speaker 4: be McCarthy. Verus Clayton. Tune is what it looks like. No,
- 22:45Speaker 4: I think this is the right move. You're locked into
- 22:47Speaker 4: the seventh seed. Last year, you played in Week eighteen
- 22:51Speaker 4: and you suffered significant injuries. You have so many injuries
- 22:55Speaker 4: already this year you cannot afford anymore. I'm not a
- 22:58Speaker 4: huge believer in you know, momentum. McVeigh is always rested
- 23:02Speaker 4: as starters over seating, and this isn't even You're not
- 23:04Speaker 4: even going for any seating. You cannot afford any more injuries.
- 23:07Speaker 4: If you're the Packers, you just rest up. You spend
- 23:10Speaker 4: this week game planning for your potential opponent next week,
- 23:14Speaker 4: and that is all you worry about is next week.
- 23:18Speaker 4: You do not care about this game. You do not
- 23:20Speaker 4: You do not put anyone out there that even has
- 23:22Speaker 4: a bruise at a chipped fingernail. You know they bit
- 23:27Speaker 4: their tongue at dinner on Saturday night. You sit them
- 23:30Speaker 4: on Sunday like you don't do anything here. There's no upside.
- 23:35Speaker 4: So and like you mentioned momentum, like they don't have
- 23:37Speaker 4: any moment right now, and momentum is as good as
- 23:40Speaker 4: the last quarter that you played. I'm a believer in that.
- 23:42Speaker 4: So I I think that they're making the right movie
- 23:47Speaker 4: here they learned from last year. So yeah, you just
- 23:49Speaker 4: punk this game. And I like the Vikings in this game,
- 23:52Speaker 4: like the line is move. We talked about this on
- 23:54Speaker 4: the actual Emberk podcast. I that's some Vikings mind a six,
- 23:58Speaker 4: which was like scary, you know that you could be
- 24:00Speaker 4: betting Max Brosner mint of six. But like the Packers. Well,
- 24:04Speaker 4: first of all, Clayton tune against the Flora's defense, and
- 24:07Speaker 4: that defense is bawling out right now. They're playing as
- 24:09Speaker 4: well as any unit in the league. So Clayton tuned
- 24:12Speaker 4: against with with you know, probably missing a bunch of
- 24:15Speaker 4: offensive linemen weapons against the Vikings defense, that's not going
- 24:20Speaker 4: to end well. And like I mentioned, they're probably not
- 24:22Speaker 4: gain planning. There's not going to be like you're not
- 24:24Speaker 4: going to show anything here, Like they probably didn't spend
- 24:26Speaker 4: much time on this game plan. They're just throwing Clayton
- 24:28Speaker 4: tune into the Wolves. And then the Packers' defense, they're
- 24:31Speaker 4: going to be sitting all their guys that are important,
- 24:32Speaker 4: they've already had injuries, they've already been trending downward. I mean,
- 24:36Speaker 4: this is a Packers' defense that since Week eleven, they're
- 24:43Speaker 4: twenty six in EPA per play twenty six and success rate.
- 24:46Speaker 4: That's when they lost Wyatt and then you know they
- 24:48Speaker 4: lost Parsons, So I think they're making the right move.
- 24:52Speaker 4: I also think it lends itself to a Vikings bet.
- 24:54Speaker 4: Scary to lay this number with McCarthy maybe Brosmer. I
- 24:58Speaker 4: just like, how are the Packers scoring this game? The
- 25:00Speaker 4: Vikings defense might score more than the Packers offense. Maybe
- 25:03Speaker 4: there's Clayton tune to Matthew Golden that they played together
- 25:07Speaker 4: in college. Maybe Golden has a big day, can look
- 25:11Speaker 4: at like a Golden anytime touchdown. But yeah, I think
- 25:14Speaker 4: this is a Viking spot.
- 25:16Speaker 1: Wow, Kendra, I know that we said we weren't going
- 25:19Speaker 1: to talk about this game, but this definitely just got
- 25:22Speaker 1: added to my teaser portfolio for the week. I will
- 25:25Speaker 1: be on the Vikings, but yeah, that seven and a
- 25:28Speaker 1: half is a little too heavy for me, So I'm
- 25:30Speaker 1: going to bet that down. We'll find a partner with
- 25:32Speaker 1: that one. By the way, Justin Jefferson fifty three yards
- 25:35Speaker 1: away from reaching a thousand on the season. His prop
- 25:38Speaker 1: has been around that number, so over on Justin Jefferson
- 25:44Speaker 1: might not be a bad idea. You know that hitting
- 25:46Speaker 1: that one thousand mark is going to be really important
- 25:48Speaker 1: to him. Now for the four hundredth year in a row,
- 25:52Speaker 1: Exercising more is the leading New Year's resolution for people
- 25:55Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. Kendra, action or distraction on that
- 25:59Speaker 1: being easily the most lame resolution imaginable.
- 26:03Speaker 3: I don't think it's the lamest imaginable.
- 26:06Speaker 5: I think it's always a good idea to better yourself,
- 26:08Speaker 5: especially after the holidays.
- 26:09Speaker 3: We've all been sitting around it's cold outside.
- 26:11Speaker 5: I think moving and trying to do something for you
- 26:14Speaker 5: get hell here always the ply.
- 26:17Speaker 2: Like, can't you get creative with it?
- 26:20Speaker 3: What do you want people to say, I'm gonna I want?
- 26:22Speaker 2: Well, did you come up with the least?
- 26:23Speaker 1: Come up with a target weight, come up with uh,
- 26:27Speaker 1: some sort of game plan when someone needs.
- 26:31Speaker 3: That's not your new Year's resolution?
- 26:34Speaker 4: Yeah, what is your news resolution?
- 26:36Speaker 1: Mine is to is to stop I want to stop
- 26:40Speaker 1: cold turkey complaining.
- 26:42Speaker 2: I'm not the biggest whiner.
- 26:43Speaker 4: As you complain about people's news. Resolution to get.
- 26:45Speaker 2: That's a good play?
- 26:48Speaker 3: Is getting owned today?
- 26:49Speaker 2: Stucky?
- 26:50Speaker 3: Is they too?
- 26:51Speaker 2: Okay?
- 26:51Speaker 1: I got time to work on this. That that says
- 26:55Speaker 1: exercise more doesn't have a six pack by the end
- 26:57Speaker 1: of the first week of the year.
- 26:58Speaker 4: You know, it's I think it's a good rest. I mean,
- 27:01Speaker 4: that's like the number one thing you can do to
- 27:02Speaker 4: improve your your life is to work out, eat better. Now,
- 27:06Speaker 4: most people aren't going to follow it, but why not.
- 27:07Speaker 1: Have that problem with it? Isn't the exercise part. Yes,
- 27:11Speaker 1: that's important, But it's.
- 27:13Speaker 3: The part that I hate is that the more partly?
- 27:15Speaker 2: What does that even mean? I want to exercise more?
- 27:17Speaker 2: Do you have to come up with something more specific
- 27:19Speaker 2: than that.
- 27:20Speaker 5: The only crappy part about this is that I can't
- 27:22Speaker 5: get into a reformer class and everyone's filling up my gym.
- 27:25Speaker 2: What does that mean?
- 27:27Speaker 5: It means that, like everyone because of their New Year's
- 27:28Speaker 5: resolution in January. Yeah, they're taking up my class spots,
- 27:33Speaker 5: and they're taking up my smith machine and they're only
- 27:35Speaker 5: going to be here for three weeks. That's the shitty
- 27:37Speaker 5: part about it.
- 27:38Speaker 2: That's right.
- 27:38Speaker 1: You know what, Join me on the complaint train. We'll
- 27:41Speaker 1: hop off in a couple of days. Still to come.
- 27:43Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly parlay.
- 27:46Speaker 1: But first, a word about Draft Kings from the first Lady.
- 27:50Speaker 5: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with Draft Kings sports book,
- 27:53Speaker 5: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
- 27:56Speaker 5: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.
- 27:59Speaker 3: Stay in on the I and use your bonus bets.
- 28:01Speaker 5: On DraftKings same game parlays for a shot at even
- 28:05Speaker 5: bigger payout to get started to use promo code favorites
- 28:08Speaker 5: when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use code favorites when
- 28:11Speaker 5: signing up and bet five bucks to get two hundred
- 28:14Speaker 5: back end bonus bets.
- 28:15Speaker 3: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
- 28:18Speaker 1: So I actually have two New Year's resolutions. One is
- 28:21Speaker 1: to grow out my hair. The other is to never
- 28:24Speaker 1: miss a big game because I don't have access to
- 28:27Speaker 1: live TV. I don't have a plan for the former
- 28:30Speaker 1: just yet, but Sling TV is my solution to the latter.
- 28:34Speaker 1: With SlingTV, you can take full control with flexible package
- 28:38Speaker 1: options one, three, and seven day passes for access to
- 28:41Speaker 1: thirty plus live channels, which includes ESPN and TNT, so
- 28:46Speaker 1: that covers you for both huge NFL games tomorrow and
- 28:49Speaker 1: all of the remaining college football playoff games, which by
- 28:52Speaker 1: the way, have been great. Sling TV will also be
- 28:55Speaker 1: coming in clutch for some NFL playoff games as well.
- 28:59Speaker 1: So let's talk Panthers, Bucks, Seahawks, Niners and we'll slam
- 29:05Speaker 1: together some plays here. Kendra get Us started Panthers Buccaneers.
- 29:10Speaker 2: What do you like?
- 29:12Speaker 3: I need Panthers to lose on Sunday.
- 29:14Speaker 5: Because you guys know that I have a future for
- 29:16Speaker 5: them to come in second in the division. But Rico Daddle,
- 29:20Speaker 5: I'm gonna go over sixty rushing yards for him plus
- 29:23Speaker 5: one twenty one. He needs seven yards for incentives, but
- 29:27Speaker 5: they need a big day from him regardless, So I'm
- 29:30Speaker 5: going to go after Rigo Daddle.
- 29:33Speaker 2: Daddall's got those incentives. I like that idea. Stuck you,
- 29:36Speaker 2: what about you?
- 29:37Speaker 4: I'm going with the Bucks. We can throw money line
- 29:40Speaker 4: in here. But I hate the Bucks. I've been the
- 29:44Speaker 4: head of the Bucks stink train, been driving that train
- 29:49Speaker 4: for two months. They haven't covered in two months. They're
- 29:50Speaker 4: owing to eight against the spread. I just think this
- 29:52Speaker 4: is the bottom and the Panthers on the road don't
- 29:56Speaker 4: give me any confidence. But this is mainly a numbers play.
- 30:01Speaker 4: The Bucks were laying three in Carolina two weeks ago.
- 30:03Speaker 4: Now they're laying two expensive two and a half three
- 30:06Speaker 4: at home. I think this is the bottom. I'm buying
- 30:09Speaker 4: low in the Bucks.
- 30:10Speaker 1: Okay, well, I need to change my answer then, because
- 30:14Speaker 1: I was gonna take the sad Cats. But since we
- 30:17Speaker 1: are looking at incentives, what about Ameca Agbuka who is
- 30:24Speaker 1: closing in on a thousand yards receiving So let's see
- 30:27Speaker 1: exactly where that that's.
- 30:29Speaker 3: Insane considering how much he sat out.
- 30:32Speaker 2: Yeah, well, he was so good at the start of
- 30:33Speaker 2: the year.
- 30:34Speaker 1: He needs seventy receiving yards to get to a thousand
- 30:37Speaker 1: on the season, so his number is not going to
- 30:39Speaker 1: be quite that high with Evans back in the fold.
- 30:43Speaker 1: So let's see what we got on a Buka as
- 30:48Speaker 1: receiving yards twenty five plus.
- 30:50Speaker 4: I mean, he's like the fifth option.
- 30:52Speaker 1: Now, it's fine, we're going to take that, all right.
- 30:55Speaker 1: We're adding if you get the Bucks, we got to
- 30:57Speaker 1: get there somehow. So let's go Mecca Buka at twenty
- 31:01Speaker 1: five plus and that'll do it for our Bucks, Panthers, Leans, Well, Seahawks,
- 31:08Speaker 1: forty nine ers. I'm I'm gonna take San Francisco here,
- 31:12Speaker 1: plus the one and a half the forty nine ers
- 31:16Speaker 1: have been scorching hot. I do think that they match
- 31:19Speaker 1: up well with their counterpart in Seattle. We've seen the
- 31:25Speaker 1: offense for the Seahawks start to dip in productivity as
- 31:28Speaker 1: of late, and brock Party has just been an ATM
- 31:33Speaker 1: for people that have backed him. Six and two against This.
- 31:37Speaker 3: Was great out of nowhere. I don't know why that
- 31:39Speaker 3: made me love. You really dropped the rock.
- 31:42Speaker 2: That's I think that's the wrestling fan in me. Though.
- 31:45Speaker 5: I didn't mean to cut you off, but the way
- 31:47Speaker 5: that you said that really just made me giggle.
- 31:51Speaker 1: I think this is h I think this number settles
- 31:54Speaker 1: where it's at. This is my plant the Flag Games.
- 31:56Speaker 1: So I won't get into it any further, but say,
- 31:59Speaker 1: I don't trust Sam Donald in these sorts of situations.
- 32:01Speaker 2: Happy to take San Francisco here? What about you, Kendra?
- 32:04Speaker 5: Well, now you're gonna have to trust Sam Donald because
- 32:06Speaker 5: I need him to throw over two touchdowns for him.
- 32:09Speaker 3: To hit his incentives.
- 32:10Speaker 5: I got in on this last week, probably gonna chase
- 32:12Speaker 5: it again this week. Needs to throw three, so I'm
- 32:15Speaker 5: going two plus minus one thirty six. So you better
- 32:17Speaker 5: get on the Sam Donald train, and you better get
- 32:19Speaker 5: on it right now.
- 32:21Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, I don't know how both of these.
- 32:23Speaker 1: I guess these both could get home. This is the
- 32:25Speaker 1: forty nine Ers are gonna have to outscore Seattle in
- 32:27Speaker 1: order for them to cover this number.
- 32:29Speaker 2: What about you, Stuckey, Well, it's as we're gonna have to.
- 32:32Speaker 4: Really, I don't know how we're gonna hit all these
- 32:35Speaker 4: but I like the under the game under, So this
- 32:40Speaker 4: is gonna have to be like twenty twenty four to
- 32:47Speaker 4: twenty Donald, Wait, you have the forty nine ers. Yeah,
- 32:51Speaker 4: twenty four twenty three realistic, But yeah, I like the
- 32:55Speaker 4: game under divisional game. I already talked about this. The
- 32:58Speaker 4: Seattle offense is trending. The forty nine ers offense has
- 33:01Speaker 4: benefited from playing a lot of bad defenses. You're not
- 33:03Speaker 4: going to potentially have both left tackles, maybe no kittle.
- 33:07Speaker 4: Seattle's defense is elite. I think the forty nine ers
- 33:10Speaker 4: defense can just keep everything in front of them. I
- 33:12Speaker 4: think so be a game with the clocks moving throughout.
- 33:15Speaker 4: So let's go with the under. This is this is
- 33:19Speaker 4: a special one game under Donald. Two plus touchdowns and
- 33:22Speaker 4: forty nine ers.
- 33:24Speaker 2: It's twelve to one.
- 33:25Speaker 4: By the way, appreciate get like one hundred to one
- 33:28Speaker 4: on that's a that's a fun one to slam together.
- 33:33Speaker 1: Good luck sweating that with so many great games in
- 33:35Speaker 1: the coming days. Sling tv is your solution to instant
- 33:38Speaker 1: access to live TV starting as low as forty ninety nine.
- 33:42Speaker 1: There's not a better time to acquaint yourself with one, three,
- 33:45Speaker 1: and seven day passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to
- 33:48Speaker 1: Orange one day pass restrictions apply. It is time for
- 33:53Speaker 1: the reason you all came here today. Are two Kings
- 33:55Speaker 1: and a Queen Parlay. Get nominated right now, Bendra, get
- 34:08Speaker 1: us started with your two nominations.
- 34:11Speaker 3: I hate this week.
- 34:12Speaker 5: You guys know I hate this week. I only have
- 34:15Speaker 5: one bet logged in the app, and we've already talked
- 34:17Speaker 5: about it, but I've had it for days now. So
- 34:20Speaker 5: your choices are going to be Bengals now seven and
- 34:23Speaker 5: a half or the Lions getting three points.
- 34:27Speaker 3: Pick your poison.
- 34:28Speaker 2: I like both of these.
- 34:30Speaker 1: I'm surprised that you were able to get to two
- 34:32Speaker 1: given your disdain for Week eighteen, but my vote would
- 34:36Speaker 1: be for the Lions. I doubt that anybody playing for
- 34:40Speaker 1: Dan Campbell isn't going to give it a full go,
- 34:42Speaker 1: and with the Bears having something to play for and
- 34:45Speaker 1: the Lions having nothing, but pride to play for This
- 34:48Speaker 1: feels like the kind of game where the tryhards in
- 34:51Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions take care of business.
- 34:53Speaker 3: This is a Lions w and.
- 34:55Speaker 1: The Bears defense has been brutal, so this is a
- 34:58Speaker 1: nice get right for the Lions off So I like
- 35:00Speaker 1: the Lions plus three that would be my vote on
- 35:02Speaker 1: this lucky I'm going.
- 35:05Speaker 4: With the Bengals probably my favorite side of the week,
- 35:08Speaker 4: even at seven, and that I played some seven would
- 35:11Speaker 4: play seven and a half. I don't think Fannon is
- 35:15Speaker 4: going to play for the Browns. He's like their entire offense.
- 35:18Speaker 4: Their offense is dreadful anyway, but like it's just without
- 35:22Speaker 4: Fan and how do they move the ball? And the
- 35:24Speaker 4: Sincy defense. I talked about this at length on our podcast,
- 35:30Speaker 4: The Action Nework Podcast is actually improving. The rookie linebackers
- 35:35Speaker 4: are playing better. They change their front so Slayton is
- 35:38Speaker 4: playing better against the run. They're getting something for Murphy.
- 35:40Speaker 4: I mean their corners right now on the outside, you
- 35:43Speaker 4: were able to they move Dax Hill up from the
- 35:45Speaker 4: outside Week ten. They're playing as well as anybody in
- 35:50Speaker 4: the league right now. And then you just have a
- 35:52Speaker 4: new coordinator. Alcoholen has figured some things out. Their defense
- 35:54Speaker 4: is legitimately playing much much better. So not a great defense,
- 35:58Speaker 4: but it's much better. And this Bengals offense is rolling,
- 36:01Speaker 4: the offensive line is playing better. I just don't think
- 36:04Speaker 4: the Browns can keep up. I think Bengals smash them.
- 36:07Speaker 4: And we know the Browns on the road, that's when
- 36:10Speaker 4: you fade them. I mean, there's six nineteen against the spread,
- 36:14Speaker 4: six and nineteen against the spread up for the past
- 36:15Speaker 4: three years. That's under twenty five percent. Failing to cover
- 36:19Speaker 4: by about six points per game at home is when
- 36:21Speaker 4: you bet them. That's because their defense just doesn't play
- 36:23Speaker 4: as well away from them. So I love the Bengals.
- 36:25Speaker 4: I think they win by double digits, so Heaven's got
- 36:29Speaker 4: to break the tie.
- 36:30Speaker 6: Yeah, nobody has the better home field advantage in the
- 36:33Speaker 6: NFL than the Cleveland Browns because they're so.
- 36:36Speaker 7: Bad on the road. I mean, preferably, I'd probably like
- 36:39Speaker 7: this at seven.
- 36:40Speaker 6: So at DraftKings six and a half, seven versus seven
- 36:42Speaker 6: and a half because Week eighteen is chaos and you
- 36:45Speaker 6: just don't know. But Bengals are the play here Detroit
- 36:48Speaker 6: and Chicago. Who the hell knows what's gonna happen in
- 36:50Speaker 6: that game, Detroit could literally lay down because it's probably
- 36:53Speaker 6: what they should based off of a bunch of different factors.
- 36:56Speaker 4: But yeah, get the fourth place schedule.
- 36:58Speaker 7: Yeah, but you have no idea what is gonna do.
- 37:00Speaker 6: So I'd rather go with Burrows to ending the season
- 37:04Speaker 6: so well and still missing the playoffs, which is the
- 37:06Speaker 6: storyline we'll probably head into.
- 37:07Speaker 7: The offseason with.
- 37:08Speaker 4: I mean, we can go six and a half goodbye.
- 37:14Speaker 2: Yeah, that'll be preferable.
- 37:15Speaker 1: The Bengals are five and one against the spread in
- 37:17Speaker 1: their last six games, four and one since Burrow came back,
- 37:20Speaker 1: so they have been a profitable side as of late
- 37:24Speaker 1: and all it's all directly correlated to the return of
- 37:27Speaker 1: their quarterback. And they're still they're still somewhat undervalued because
- 37:31Speaker 1: of how bad they were for the stretch without Joe Burrows.
- 37:35Speaker 2: I'm good with it.
- 37:36Speaker 4: And it's also their defense. I think that's why they're
- 37:38Speaker 4: undervalued right now, their defense, and they played good. I
- 37:42Speaker 4: think they're like top five in rush success rates since
- 37:44Speaker 4: Week ten. They've played good rushing teams. I mean they
- 37:47Speaker 4: played the Ravens twice, the Bills, the Pats, the Dolphins,
- 37:51Speaker 4: I mean, even the Cardinals offense. They completely shut them down.
- 37:53Speaker 4: The Cardinals offense can do some things like, but that's
- 37:56Speaker 4: the worst team that they played, and I mean their
- 37:58Speaker 4: offense is mean defense is legitimately playing much better. I mean,
- 38:03Speaker 4: DJ Turner is probably the most underrated corner in the
- 38:06Speaker 4: league right now. Jalen Davis being able to play in
- 38:08Speaker 4: the slot has just enabled them to do so much.
- 38:10Speaker 4: And those rookie linebackers are playing better. So I think
- 38:12Speaker 4: that's why they're under value. We know about the offense,
- 38:14Speaker 4: but the defense has actually come along a bit tender.
- 38:17Speaker 2: Are you good with us buying the point here?
- 38:19Speaker 7: Yeah?
- 38:20Speaker 4: No, wind.
- 38:21Speaker 3: Also, yeah, it's a parlay.
- 38:23Speaker 5: I feel like whenever you have a parlay, you have
- 38:24Speaker 5: a little bit of lenience and what you can buy
- 38:26Speaker 5: or what you're willing to give up.
- 38:28Speaker 2: So yeah, down, all right.
- 38:31Speaker 1: My nominations are Washington plus four against the Eagles, who
- 38:36Speaker 1: are benching everybody, and the Saints plus three and a half.
- 38:41Speaker 1: And I do have a middle opportunity here was My
- 38:44Speaker 1: biggest preseason bet was on the Saints team total under
- 38:47Speaker 1: at six and a half. I bet at the day
- 38:49Speaker 1: that Derek Carr announced his retirement, it was very clear
- 38:52Speaker 1: with direction they were going to go in. What I
- 38:54Speaker 1: didn't expect is how good this team would be down
- 38:57Speaker 1: the stretch of the back end of the season.
- 38:59Speaker 2: They have.
- 39:00Speaker 1: They really found something in their quarterback, and the most
- 39:03Speaker 1: impressive part of their team has been their defense. Over
- 39:05Speaker 1: a four game winning streak, they've held opponents to seventeen
- 39:07Speaker 1: points per game.
- 39:08Speaker 2: Since their blowout loss in Week nine.
- 39:10Speaker 1: They actually have the number one total defense and number
- 39:12Speaker 1: two scoring defense in the NFL. And this is just
- 39:15Speaker 1: a natural letdown spot for Atlanta. Any other week in
- 39:19Speaker 1: the season, we'd be targeting this big win as an
- 39:22Speaker 1: underdog on Monday Night football, turn around play a divisional
- 39:26Speaker 1: opponent as a favorite. I like the Saints a lot.
- 39:29Speaker 1: And then the Commanders is really just I mean, this
- 39:31Speaker 1: is kind of a trend play that teams that are
- 39:34Speaker 1: resting their starters against opponents that have six or less
- 39:38Speaker 1: wins over the last seventeen seasons forty two against the spread.
- 39:43Speaker 1: That makes it a Commander's side to me. So those
- 39:46Speaker 1: are my two nominations. Stucky you're vote.
- 39:50Speaker 4: I hate both of these. I bet the Falcons are
- 39:53Speaker 4: this week. I mean, the Falcons are a good team,
- 39:56Speaker 4: They're just poorly coach bad special teams but I mean
- 39:59Speaker 4: the Saints look Shuck look good. I don't get the
- 40:01Speaker 4: offensive Rookie of the Year stuff. They've played the Tanking
- 40:04Speaker 4: Bucks their four game win streak, the Tanking Bucks, the Panthers,
- 40:08Speaker 4: the Jets, and the Titans, and before that they got
- 40:11Speaker 4: blown out by the Falcons and lost to the Dolphins.
- 40:14Speaker 4: Like they their schedule over the last month has been
- 40:16Speaker 4: an absolute joke. So yeah, I mean, I think the
- 40:21Speaker 4: Falcons are a good team that's just been unlucky, and
- 40:23Speaker 4: they're poorly coach with bad special teams, and there's no
- 40:25Speaker 4: Chris lave So and Shuck. Shuck can't deal with pressure
- 40:28Speaker 4: and a lot of these teams that he's playing can't
- 40:30Speaker 4: get any pressure. The Falcons can generate pressure, but no
- 40:32Speaker 4: Chris olave Who's he throwing to in this game? It's
- 40:36Speaker 4: like Kevin. They're starting receivers, I mean, Mason Tifton might
- 40:40Speaker 4: not even play. They're starting receivers in this game. Are
- 40:41Speaker 4: gonna be and they can't run the ball. Are gonna
- 40:43Speaker 4: be like Kevin Austin and Dante Pettis. That's their receiving corps. No,
- 40:49Speaker 4: but then the commanders like Josh Johnson, the Eagles offense
- 40:53Speaker 4: might be better with Tanner McKee. They might actually open
- 40:56Speaker 4: it up.
- 40:59Speaker 2: Hearts is not gonna be the only guys sitting on
- 41:01Speaker 2: the pint.
- 41:01Speaker 4: I guess if I had to take, I'll take the
- 41:04Speaker 4: hook with I mean, I guess I take the command.
- 41:07Speaker 4: I don't know.
- 41:08Speaker 1: I well, that's the thing with the Laves. This number
- 41:10Speaker 1: was parked at three. A lave's ruled out, it goes
- 41:14Speaker 1: up to three and a half. So, I mean, all
- 41:16Speaker 1: this stuff is you know, as you well know, it's
- 41:18Speaker 1: baked into the line.
- 41:20Speaker 2: That's part of the price. Kendra, where do you vote?
- 41:23Speaker 4: Wait, I guess I'm voting. I'm voting. I guess I'm voting.
- 41:28Speaker 2: You're voting the Saints, even though you already bet the Falcon.
- 41:30Speaker 4: No, I'm betting the command I'm voting. As you know,
- 41:33Speaker 4: I hate it. I just hate it less.
- 41:35Speaker 5: I was going to say the Saints, because we know
- 41:38Speaker 5: this Falcons team is going to lose to a bad
- 41:41Speaker 5: team and beat an absolute jugger or not.
- 41:44Speaker 3: That's the way that this Falcons team has existed this season.
- 41:48Speaker 5: It has to be the Saints for me, and the
- 41:50Speaker 5: fact that I was on the Saints last week, that
- 41:53Speaker 5: was one of the sweatiest bets I'd had all season long.
- 41:55Speaker 3: This defense cares.
- 41:56Speaker 5: I think some of these guys are probably going to
- 41:58Speaker 5: retire after this season. They obviously we have the quarterback
- 42:00Speaker 5: Kellen Moore is not backing down. I was gonna go
- 42:02Speaker 5: with the Saints, So Evan, welcome back to the show.
- 42:06Speaker 7: Yeah. I kind of hate both these as well. I'm
- 42:09Speaker 7: kind of in my breath every week of it.
- 42:10Speaker 1: This is a perfect in the season perfect I would
- 42:14Speaker 1: not have had it any other way.
- 42:15Speaker 2: Guys.
- 42:15Speaker 6: Honestly, I would consider like a team total over on
- 42:19Speaker 6: New Orleans or Washington before I considered trying either of
- 42:22Speaker 6: these teams to cover the game, Like, if you like
- 42:24Speaker 6: the situation, you would like them to score some points,
- 42:28Speaker 6: especially with the Washington game because a low total.
- 42:31Speaker 1: So I guess say, but a bigger part of my
- 42:34Speaker 1: bet on New Orleans is the way their defense has
- 42:36Speaker 1: been playing.
- 42:37Speaker 6: Yeah, so maybe Washington, if you're gonna make me choose.
- 42:40Speaker 1: Okay, all right, a very a very excited Washington commander's
- 42:47Speaker 1: bet has been forced into this up to four and
- 42:51Speaker 1: a half, by the way, so you get to throw
- 42:52Speaker 1: that in over there.
- 42:53Speaker 2: You're gonna need every quarter point in this game.
- 42:55Speaker 4: So take it.
- 42:57Speaker 1: Okay, So we got the Bengals minus six and a
- 42:59Speaker 1: half and the Commanders plus four and a half. I
- 43:01Speaker 1: did not try and force speed the Dolphins plus ten
- 43:04Speaker 1: and a half in there, but I definitely thought about it.
- 43:06Speaker 3: I honestly would like that better. Can we go the Dolphins.
- 43:10Speaker 4: I'm just worried about the Dolphins are gonna play like
- 43:11Speaker 4: they might sit everybody like Wattle, a Chaine, none of
- 43:16Speaker 4: these guys practice yesterday like they're most of their good
- 43:19Speaker 4: players on defense. Uh, they might might be.
- 43:24Speaker 3: This happened to the divisional game, stucky, And I'm just.
- 43:27Speaker 4: Saying the Dolphins, like, can you look at their practice
- 43:29Speaker 4: for yesterday? It's bad. I got I think there's a
- 43:32Speaker 4: good chance that a Chane doesn't play, Wattle doesn't play.
- 43:36Speaker 3: The Patriots are in bud jail anyway.
- 43:39Speaker 4: I Meantriot Stills are literally in jail. Waller Brewer their
- 43:44Speaker 4: best offensive lineman. I don't think Chop Robinson's playing. Jordan Phillips,
- 43:48Speaker 4: Jordan Brooks didn't practice. Minka like this is their entire
- 43:52Speaker 4: team might be out.
- 43:53Speaker 3: Dolphins somehow win this game. Holy crap.
- 43:57Speaker 2: Well, and this game is in in Miami. This is
- 43:59Speaker 2: in I don't know how Hold it is up there,
- 44:01Speaker 2: you know.
- 44:02Speaker 3: Hold, yeah, there you go eight degrees this morning.
- 44:05Speaker 2: I know it's not Tua anymore, but it's Texas. Quinn
- 44:08Speaker 2: yours exactly, and Drake May covers.
- 44:11Speaker 1: This is from Evans Primer. Drake May, when he is
- 44:14Speaker 1: listed as a favorite of three or more, he's nine
- 44:16Speaker 1: to oh straight up, seven and two against the spread
- 44:19Speaker 1: is a double digit favorite. He's two and oh. Ats
- 44:22Speaker 1: So this is just what always Poland does.
- 44:25Speaker 5: Like to point out that Hunter Henry has passed incentives.
- 44:29Speaker 5: He needs five catches to get two hundred and fifty
- 44:31Speaker 5: thousand dollars on Sunday.
- 44:33Speaker 1: Yeah, I worry about a lot of productivity from New England,
- 44:37Speaker 1: but all right, stucky what you got?
- 44:39Speaker 4: Yeah, Patriots keep him on if if they do, they
- 44:44Speaker 4: still do have incentive because if the Jags win, they
- 44:46Speaker 4: you know, and they lose, they would drop down. So
- 44:48Speaker 4: even though the one seed isn't likely, and you might
- 44:51Speaker 4: be like, well if the Broncos are rolling, they might
- 44:52Speaker 4: bench starters, they still do have in centive.
- 44:54Speaker 5: If I have to watch the Patriots play in Jacksonville,
- 44:57Speaker 5: I will be I don't want to watch these two
- 44:59Speaker 5: play each other until a championship scenario that's literally my nightmare.
- 45:04Speaker 4: They would likely play as of right now, looks like
- 45:07Speaker 4: they would play. Now I'm saying if they with the
- 45:10Speaker 4: Jags win and the past, oh y y yeah, they
- 45:12Speaker 4: would play each other. All right, I'm gonna go with
- 45:16Speaker 4: the first choice. We would have been the Bengals, but
- 45:18Speaker 4: we already have the Bengals, so I'm gonna go with
- 45:20Speaker 4: the Vikings. I don't care seven and a half lay.
- 45:23Speaker 4: This is just one team not trying versus one team trying.
- 45:26Speaker 4: Flores versus Clayton tune, then the Packers sitting, everyone not caring,
- 45:31Speaker 4: not game planning for this game. This is just a
- 45:34Speaker 4: walk through for them. Vikings care, they're playing better. McCarthy,
- 45:37Speaker 4: who I think is gonna start been playing better? I
- 45:40Speaker 4: think the Vikings role this is like they'll win, Like
- 45:44Speaker 4: I don't know, this will be like twenty three to three,
- 45:49Speaker 4: So Vikings and then the other one Son'll be Card
- 45:54Speaker 4: the Raiders plus five and a half. I know no
- 45:56Speaker 4: one's gonna vote for that, but that line is ridiculous,
- 45:58Speaker 4: Like a Ludicon was just thirteen and a half point
- 46:01Speaker 4: underdog at home against the Broncos. The Broncos by the way,
- 46:05Speaker 4: were seven and a half point favorites. At Vegas. They
- 46:09Speaker 4: were laying thirteen and a half out of Loudacon. Now
- 46:11Speaker 4: Ludicon's laying close to six. I know that there's no Bowers.
- 46:14Speaker 4: I know that there's no Crosby. They might sit other guys,
- 46:17Speaker 4: but so are the Chiefs. The chief don't go to
- 46:18Speaker 4: play run here. The Chiefs don't want to win. The
- 46:21Speaker 4: Chiefs don't want the Raiders to get the number one pick.
- 46:23Speaker 4: The Chiefs want a better draft selection. The Chiefs veterans
- 46:26Speaker 4: are probably going to rest. Did you see them in
- 46:29Speaker 4: Tennessee there? I don't think they care about this game.
- 46:31Speaker 3: So I need the Raiders to win.
- 46:33Speaker 5: I cannot have them have my sweet sweet summer child,
- 46:38Speaker 5: Fernando Mendoza. They cannot ruin him. Please to win this game, Well.
- 46:43Speaker 4: Bernana Mendoza in Las Vegas will be pretty funny. So
- 46:49Speaker 4: there is a decent chance that the Raiders already have
- 46:51Speaker 4: the one seed locked up them number one pick, I
- 46:54Speaker 4: mean locked up by the time this game kicks. So
- 46:58Speaker 4: if that's the case, maybe they make But the guys
- 47:00Speaker 4: on the field are going to try This line's crazy.
- 47:02Speaker 4: So those are my two uh two picks.
- 47:06Speaker 3: I have a Vikings.
- 47:07Speaker 4: Raiders plus five and a half, Vikings minus seven and
- 47:09Speaker 4: a half.
- 47:10Speaker 2: Yeah, easy vote for me Vikings. I want no part.
- 47:13Speaker 3: Of the Please Bana Mendoza no Vegas.
- 47:17Speaker 1: And that was also Chiefs. Raiders was on Kendra's No
- 47:21Speaker 1: No playlist.
- 47:22Speaker 4: So, Adam, who would you have voted for since we
- 47:24Speaker 4: asked you? Oh?
- 47:26Speaker 7: God, the Raiders so enjoy.
- 47:29Speaker 4: Okay, So we got Bengals Ny.
- 47:33Speaker 6: Henny Pickett Kenny Picket over Geno Smith a complete and
- 47:36Speaker 6: utter upgrade. Geno Smith gets sacked a million times a
- 47:38Speaker 6: game through his interceptions everywhere.
- 47:40Speaker 7: This would be Raiders and there's a six in the market.
- 47:42Speaker 7: So I like it.
- 47:43Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I haven't bet that yet, but I will
- 47:46Speaker 4: be on the Raiders. Sadly, Bengals minus six and a
- 47:49Speaker 4: half all Commanders plus four and a half gross and
- 47:53Speaker 4: Vikings minus seven and a half plus four eighty five
- 47:56Speaker 4: at DraftKings you.
- 47:57Speaker 6: Might as well disappoint Take the Vikings minus nineteen and
- 48:00Speaker 6: half and you know, really juice that up because they're
- 48:01Speaker 6: probably gonna blow them out.
- 48:03Speaker 7: So I like it.
- 48:05Speaker 4: All right, Let's say let's juice this up a little bit.
- 48:10Speaker 2: Maybe take it to ten.
- 48:14Speaker 6: I was worried because like eight is a key number,
- 48:16Speaker 6: so I don't know if I necessarily want to go
- 48:18Speaker 6: above that, So seven and a half might be right,
- 48:20Speaker 6: But I do think if twenty three to three is
- 48:22Speaker 6: like viable.
- 48:23Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll keep it out as plus forty five.
- 48:26Speaker 2: Or the uh go and find this over on Draft Kings.
- 48:29Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.
- 48:30Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
- 48:34Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, stat Sound and two Kings
- 48:38Speaker 1: and a Queen Parlay efficient that'd be Evan Abrams.
- 48:42Speaker 2: Of course.
- 48:43Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Sunday nights a week eighteen
- 48:47Speaker 1: plus a playoff preview type of episode. You can catch
- 48:49Speaker 1: it right here on Action Networks YouTube page. Thanks for
- 48:52Speaker 1: hanging out, We'll see you next time here on The
- 48:55Speaker 1: Favorites podcast presented by Draft Kings The Crown.
- 48:58Speaker 3: Your Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
- 49:13Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
- 49:16Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
- 49:19Speaker 2: hundred Gambler