Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 8: Talking Tennessee, with Jacob Rubashkin from Inside Elections

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Episode 8: Talking Tennessee, with Jacob Rubashkin from Inside Elections · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: From a raw number perspective,
• 0:01
  we essentially saw midterm level turnout in a special election the Tuesday
• 0:07
  after
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_02: Thanksgiving.
• 0:08
  The average swing here is 19 points to the left across six House special
• 0:11
  elections.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_02: This one saw the smallest swing to the left of any of them,
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_02: but in some ways it may have been the most washed.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: Everything is pointing in the same direction,
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: and that direction is voters aren't happy with Republicans right now.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: Suddenly,
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: not every Republican candidate is running every ad saying,
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: hey,
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: I'm with Donald Trump in a way that we haven't seen in recent times.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_02: Hey there, welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_02: I'm your host, Geoffrey Skelley, Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_02: It's officially Tennessee Week in the political world.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_02: On Tuesday,
• 0:53
  a special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District drew the
• 0:57
  attentionof
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_02: election watchers everywhere.
• 0:59
  And while it's a seat that President Donald Trump carried by about 22
• 1:03
  percentage
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: points in 2024,
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: 60 percent to 38 percent,
• 1:07
  the special election race between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat
• 1:10
  AftynBehn
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: looked to be close coming into Tuesday's special election.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_02: In the end,
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_02: Van Epps,
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: the Republican,
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: won 54 percent to 45 percent to keep the seat in Republican hands.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_02: However,
• 1:22
  thatstillrepresenteda13pointswingtotheleftinmarginfromthe2024
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: presidential election.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: even as the race had fairly high turnout for,
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: in fact,
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: very high turnout for a special election.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_02: And so with the calendar about to turn to 2026,
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  it's easy to wonder what this election can and can't tell us about the
• 1:42
  upcoming
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_02: midterm elections,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_02: especially in the U.S.
• 1:44
  House of Representatives,
• 1:46
  what Republicans hold will be protecting a very narrow majority.
• 1:50
  If you eliminate all the vacancies and give them to the party that held them,
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: it's 220 to 215 in favor of the GOP.
• 1:57
  So Republicans can't lose more than two seats net or they'll lose the
• 2:02
  majority.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_02: But of course, one special election, it's special.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_02: It can't tell us entirely how the 2026 midterms will go.
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  But the result is another clue to understanding the electoral environment
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  aswe
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: enter the new year.
• 2:14
  To help me unpack what happened in Tennessee and what it says or doesn't say
• 2:18
  about
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_02: the larger political situation,
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_02: I'm very excited to welcome in Jacob Rubashkin,
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: the deputy editor of Inside Elections.
• 2:25
  Jacob knows all the ins and outs,
• 2:27
  especially about stuff that's happening in the U.S.
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  SPEAKER_02: House.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_02: And he is also the co-host of Inside Election's own podcast.
• 2:34
  So he really is the ideal person to talk to about Tennessee and 2026 on this
• 2:39
  fine December day.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: So, Jacob, welcome to the show.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much, Geoffrey.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I grew up a Volunteers fan.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, wow.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: There you go.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there's your orange.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: Good point.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: No,
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: I had an overzealous math teacher in high school who inoculated,
• 2:57
  inculcated all of us for the three years we took his class in Tennessee
• 3:03
  Volunteers
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  SPEAKER_01: fandom.
• 3:04
  So as everyone else was discovering just this week how two-faced that Lane
• 3:09
  Kiffin
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: was,
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: those of us who remember our history...
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: were well aware of what that man was capable of.
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  So a little Tennessee history,
• 3:20
  a little Tennessee present,
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  and happy to be here.
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  SPEAKER_02: Awesome.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Rocky Top, right?
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, Rocky Top.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_02: Cool.
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  SPEAKER_02: Well,
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  SPEAKER_02: hey,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: to start out with,
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  SPEAKER_02: I thought we'd talk a little bit about the Tennessee outcome.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: And I was definitely wanting to get your thoughts on,
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know,
• 3:41
  what were some of the interesting takeaways for you from a much-watched
• 3:45
  special
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_02: election result?
• 3:45
  I think sort of the most-watched one we've had so far in the 2025 calendar.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
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  I would say it's been a pretty weak slate of special elections relative to
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  someof
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: those races.
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  SPEAKER_01: If you recall back in 2017,
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: for instance,
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  SPEAKER_01: the Georgia Six special with Jon Ossoff,
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  SPEAKER_01: the Montana One special with Ryan Zinke and Rob Quist,
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  SPEAKER_01: the Pennsylvania special with Conor Lamb,
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  SPEAKER_01: of course,
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  SPEAKER_01: those were really big ticket items.
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  And none of the specials thus far have generated that level of coverage or
• 4:18
  interest.
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  SPEAKER_01: But I agree this one.
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  SPEAKER_01: was the closest thing we got to it so far.
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  SPEAKER_01: And this was a district that Trump won by 22 points.
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  SPEAKER_01: Just from a top line perspective here,
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  the takeaway is things are not great for Republicans when it costs several
• 4:33
  million
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  dollars for them to come in and keep a Trump plus 22 district in their column
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  and
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  SPEAKER_01: only by single digits.
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  SPEAKER_01: So am I surprised at the result?
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: No,
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  SPEAKER_01: I think heading into last Tuesday night,
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  my expectation was somewhere in the vicinity of a Van Epps plus six or seven
• 4:52
  win.
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  SPEAKER_01: He ultimately won by nine.
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  SPEAKER_01: So,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: roughly in line with expectation,
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  but that expectation baked in the fact that the national environment is
• 5:03
  pretty
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  SPEAKER_01: bleak for Republicans at this moment.
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  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
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  Andoneofthethingsthatbeforewegotonthatweweretalkingaboutand
• 5:11
  something I think is kind of telling about this is that if you're talking
• 5:13
  abouta
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_02: 13 point swing,
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: yes,
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  SPEAKER_02: Democrats have been outperforming their 2024 numbers across the board.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_02: In fact, I can even bring that up for you.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_02: for our viewers at home.
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  SPEAKER_02: Essentially,
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  SPEAKER_02: so far,
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  SPEAKER_02: on average,
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  SPEAKER_02: and the Texas special election here is a little different,
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_02: but just for the sake of numbers,
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  the average swing here is 19 points to the left across six House special
• 5:40
  elections.
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  SPEAKER_02: This one saw the smallest swing to the left of any of them,
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  but in some ways it may have been the most washed and it may have been the one
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  that
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  sort of came closest to replicating at least somewhat a November general
• 5:54
  election
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  SPEAKER_02: turnout situation,
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  at least if we consider what what turnout in Tennessee has looked like in
• 6:01
  recent
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  SPEAKER_02: midterm elections.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: So this was of all of the things that surprised me last night.
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  SPEAKER_01: This was the thing that surprised me the most,
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: that level of turnout that we saw in Tennessee seven,
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: We at last count, it's roughly 180,000 ballots were cast in this race.
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  And that's basically equivalent to the number of ballots that were cast in
• 6:26
  this
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  SPEAKER_01: district in the 2022 midterms in Tennessee.
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  So from a raw number perspective,
• 6:36
  we essentially saw midterm level turnout.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: in special election the Tuesday after Thanksgiving.
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  And that distinguishes this race from all of those other races that we're
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  looking
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  SPEAKER_01: at here,
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  SPEAKER_01: which were much more low key.
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  SPEAKER_01: There was basically no outcome in doubt
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  SPEAKER_01: in the Texas 18, Arizona 7, and Virginia 11 specials.
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  And arguably the Florida specials at the beginning of the year were also
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  outsideof
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  SPEAKER_01: one or two narratives that got rolling close to election day.
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  SPEAKER_01: We're never going to be particularly competitive either.
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  SPEAKER_01: This one...
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  SPEAKER_01: This one sits in a different place when it comes to turnout.
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  SPEAKER_01: And to me,
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  that's just another reason for the Republicans to be a little bit
• 7:27
  apprehensive
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  SPEAKER_01: about this result,
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  because they can't just chalk it up to Democratic enthusiasm being off the
• 7:34
  charts
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  and Republicans being depressed because it's the Tuesday after
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  Thanksgiving,
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  SPEAKER_01: because a lot of Republicans showed up to vote.
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  SPEAKER_01: This this,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  there was a lot of Republican engagement in this election and Republicans
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  spenta
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  SPEAKER_01: lot of money turning out their voters.
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  SPEAKER_01: And it was enough to win,
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  but it was not enough to get anywhere close to the margins that they were
• 8:00
  hitting
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  SPEAKER_01: earlier,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: in in in the decade,
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  SPEAKER_01: essentially in 2024.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
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  SPEAKER_02: for for people watching or listening,
• 8:12
  justsotheyknowweIhaveatableupthererightnowonscreenthatlaysouta
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  SPEAKER_02: comparison of special election,
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  SPEAKER_02: the total votes in special elections this year.
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  And the total vote in the 2022 midterms in each of those districts as a
• 8:29
  comparison point.
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  SPEAKER_02: This is not a perfect comparison by any means,
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  SPEAKER_02: especially Tennessee had one of the lowest turnouts,
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  SPEAKER_02: actually,
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  SPEAKER_02: in the 2022 midterm elections of any state.
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  SPEAKER_02: So in that sense,
• 8:40
  itwasmaybealittleeasierforitforaspecialelectiontohitthetotalthat
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: that total.
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  SPEAKER_02: But essentially, they're equivalent about 180,000.
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  voted in the special election and a little over 180,000 voted in the 2022
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  midterms
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  SPEAKER_02: in the House race in Tennessee's 7th congressional district.
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  SPEAKER_02: And by comparison,
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  SPEAKER_02: the next highest,
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  SPEAKER_02: you saw the Florida 6th congressional district back in April,
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  SPEAKER_02: a special election,
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  SPEAKER_02: 65% of the 2022 turnout in that special election.
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  SPEAKER_02: So definitely different.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I wonder,
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  SPEAKER_01: I would imagine that Florida Six,
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  SPEAKER_01: from a population growth perspective,
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  SPEAKER_01: that may have something to do with it.
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  SPEAKER_01: That region of Florida is rapidly growing.
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  Andsoit'snotsurprisingtomethatwesawthatonekindofcomeclosestto
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: matching the 2022 turnout,
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: because I would wager the population is actually significantly increased,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: especially relative to some of these other places.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, exactly.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_02: Again,
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_02: it's an imperfect comparison point,
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: but it is striking to see a special election,
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  SPEAKER_02: again,
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  SPEAKER_02: right after Thanksgiving,
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  SPEAKER_02: essentially equal a November general election turnout.
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  And where this was a,
• 9:53
  you know,
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  in the comparison point here,
• 9:55
  there was a Democrat running.
• 9:57
  The Republican,
• 9:58
  Mark Green,
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  who resigned this seat,
• 10:00
  actually,
• 10:01
  easily won in 2022.
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  And in 2024 in this seat,
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  he resigned,
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  created the vacancy that prompted this special election.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_02: But it was not like it was a competitive race by any means.
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  SPEAKER_02: But here you are with a lot of people showing up.
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  SPEAKER_02: And so that actually,
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
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  SPEAKER_02: raises a point where in the end,
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_02: Van Epps won by about nine percentage points.
• 10:22
  And that was a little more than I think it sounds like maybe slightly more than
• 10:26
  you anticipated.
• 10:26
  It was slightly more than I expected,
• 10:28
  though Van Epps was definitely favored to win.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_02: I thought it was pretty incredible from a just like...
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: Really?
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 10:36
  Perspective if Behn had actually pulled off an upset here,
• 10:41
  given how red the district is.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless,
• 10:44
  thefactitispossiblethatthefactyouhadturnoutlookmorelikeaNovember
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_02: general election in Tennessee.
• 10:51
  That actually was one of the reasons Van Epps won by nine instead of like six.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_02: or five was because you got a few more Republicans.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_02: There wasn't as much sort of differential turnout.
• 11:01
  The average Democrat wasn't that much more likely to turn out than the
• 11:04
  average
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_02: Republican,
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_02: which is a thing that we've definitely seen in special elections,
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_02: especially this year.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_02: And also thinking about sort of the makeup of the two parties right now,
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_02: the voters in the Democratic Party's coalition,
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_02: there tends to be,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_02: on average,
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_02: college-educated voters are somewhat more Democratic-leaning.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_02: and they are somewhat more likely to turn out.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_02: Some lower propensity voters,
• 11:29
  we saw Donald Trump do better with them in the 2024 presidential election.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: They're less likely to turn out in the special election.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_02: So there are reasons why Democrats would be expected to overperform,
• 11:38
  including the fact that what's very important right now is that Donald
• 11:41
  Trump's
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_02: approval ratings in the low 40s,
• 11:43
  and there's obviously a bit of a pro-democratic political environment when
• 11:48
  itcomes
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_02: to elections.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless,
• 11:52
  the fact that you actually had a little higher turnout maybe than we would
• 11:54
  have
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_02: expected in a special election here,
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_02: I think probably is the reason Van Epps won by nine instead of like six,
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_02: because you got some Republicans to actually show up.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, I think that's absolutely right.
• 12:07
  AndifyoulookatthesplitbetweentheearlyvotewhereBehndidwellandthe
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: election day vote where Van Epps beat her,
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: that
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: tells the whole story.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: The Republican money came in in the last two weeks of the race.
• 12:26
  After early voting had started,
• 12:27
  you saw Trump start posting about it on Truth Social.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: You saw the Speaker of the House get involved.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: You saw JD
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: Vance go down to Fort Campbell right outside the district.
• 12:38
  There was a tremendous amount of attention paid at the end of the race here to
• 12:44
  boost Van Epps.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: And again, it got him to 9%.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Which is.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: Not what we would expect from this district simply on on paper.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, special elections are special, but.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_01: When you put it in the context of all these other races,
• 13:03
  all the state legislative races that we've seen take place over the last
• 13:07
  year,
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: and then the regularly scheduled races that we saw in Virginia,
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: New Jersey,
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: California,
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: and all other places around the country,
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: everything is pointing in the same direction,
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: You can nitpick the individual outcomes of any individual race,
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: but when you take it in sum,
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: everything is pointing in the same direction.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: And that direction is voters aren't happy with Republicans right now.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_02: So that maybe that's a good place.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_02: look,
• 13:38
  we could probably talk to or blow in the face about about the the particulars
• 13:42
  of
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: this election.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_02: But I think for for viewers and listeners,
• 13:45
  what's more interesting is sort of what can this potentially tell us or not
• 13:50
  tellus
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_02: about the midterms next year?
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously,
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_02: as you said,
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_02: it's sort of a situation where,
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 13:58
  you mentioned that even state legislative special elections have been
• 14:01
  favorableto
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_02: Democrats.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_02: And then obviously the elections in November,
• 14:04
  I know the down ballot keeps track of an average of swing in presidential vote
• 14:09
  from
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_02: 2024 to what the outcomes have been in a number of elections for U.S.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_02: Congress, state legislature.
• 14:17
  And I forget exactly what the total is,
• 14:19
  like 50 or something elections at this point.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_02: The average swing has been about 13 points in the Democrats favor,
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: which,
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: oh,
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: by the way,
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_02: was the swing in Tennessee's seventh.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_02: So very fitting, perhaps to sort of finish off the year, more or less.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_02: With a special that matched the average.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: and,
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: this was the most...
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously,
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: it's not identical to an actual midterm,
• 14:44
  but if you're devising a test case for a special that looks like a midterm,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: you have a couple of things going for you.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: You've got, obviously, the turnout level, right?
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: We had midterm level turnout in this race.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: We had midterm level engagement outside money.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: You're reading my mind here.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Both parties engaged in this race.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: You had Republicans outside group spending,
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: a constellation of groups,
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: including a Trump super PAC,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: the Club for Growth,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: some other GOP groups.
• 15:19
  You had Democrats main super PAC,
• 15:21
  House Majority PAC get involved as well.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: You had some Democratic
• 15:25
  C4 groups,
• 15:25
  otherwise known as dark money groups,
• 15:28
  get involved earlier on in the process.
• 15:30
  So you had both sides engagement and you had two candidates that
• 15:34
  realistically
• 15:35
  could be nominated by their parties for competitive elections in any
• 15:40
  different
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_01: corner of the country.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: Matt Van Epps was a former official in the Bill Lee administration.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: He is a former army helicopter pilot, West Point grad.
• 15:51
  Like you look at him and you say,
• 15:52
  that guy looks like a Republican member of Congress,
• 15:55
  right?
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, Aftyn Behn won a competitive democratic primary.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_01: She's a sitting state legislator.
• 16:01
  She is more progressive than I think some Democrats wanted to run in this
• 16:06
  district,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: but very much of the moment in democratic politics in,
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: in,
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: in a pretty clear way.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, she's young, she has an organizing background.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: She really hit the ground game hard.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, uh,
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: Both of these candidates were real people with real operations,
• 16:24
  which is different than any other special election that we've had so far this
• 16:27
  year
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: on the House side,
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: The guy running in Florida against Randy Fine was not a real,
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: he had a bazillion dollars,
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: but he was not a real candidate.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 16:38
  I don't even know who ran against James Walkinshaw in Virginia 11 off the top
• 16:43
  ofmy
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: head.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Daniel Butierez in Arizona 7.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: So this is the best case that we've had in terms of,
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:53
  can you model what a House election looks like outside of the special
• 17:00
  election
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: universe?
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:03
  trying to remove as many of the special election considerations as you can
• 17:07
  from
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: these quirky races.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's why, you know, we get the average.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: It hit exactly the average at 13.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:16
  that doesn't mean the Democrats are going to do 13 points better next year
• 17:19
  than
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: they did in 2024.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: But it pretty clearly suggests they're going to do something better.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: And they don't have to do much better to pick up the three seats.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_02: Exactly.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_02: And for for people listening,
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_02: the I've I've put up a table chart on screen here that Jacob,
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_02: referred to briefly,
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_02: which basically I took the FEC and the independent expenditure numbers in
• 17:46
  congressional races from the Federal Election Commission and calculated
• 17:50
  out
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_02: basically the total spent.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_02: After the primary or nominating process in each of these,
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_02: each of the specials that we've had this year,
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_02: excluding Texas,
• 18:00
  whichwasanallpartyelectionthatiskindofweirdandnotreallyhelpfulin
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_02: this situation.
• 18:06
  But the point is about five and a half million dollars from from outside
• 18:10
  groups
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_02: were was spent in the Tennessee Seventh.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_02: election.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_02: And so that's not including candidate spending.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_02: And by comparison,
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_02: the next closest was one of the Florida races in April,
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_02: Florida's sixth congressional district,
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_02: the one that Mike Waltz was leaving behind,
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_02: the Republican there.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_02: There was $3.8 million in outside spending,
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_02: and then none of the other districts has had over a million.
• 18:33
  In fact,
• 18:34
  the two safe Democratic seats,
• 18:36
  Virginia's 11th and Arizona's 7th,
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_02: There was basically no spending,
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_02: minimal outside spending,
• 18:43
  so much that it doesn't even show up on the chart because it was so small.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_02: So this, to your point, Jacob, I think absolutely...
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_02: came closer to replicating general election conditions.
• 18:57
  Obviously,
• 18:57
  it doesn't entirely,
• 18:59
  but it is certainly closer in those respects.
• 19:04
  And I guess so thinking about that with the 2026 midterms,
• 19:09
  Iwascuriousifbasedonsortof
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_02: Your takeaways from the current political environment,
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_02: what just happened in November,
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: what we just saw in Tennessee.
• 19:22
  What do you think at this point is a safe early thought about what's happening
• 19:29
  in
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_02: the 2026 midterms?
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_02: With obvious caveats that we've got a long time to go,
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_02: but I figured there's a lot that we could talk about here.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_02: So I was curious what came to mind for you.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I don't know if it's safe to have any thoughts this far out.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: So I'll caveat everything I say afterward with this.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_01: I saw a tweet the other day,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: just this past week,
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: that said,
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: on this day six years ago,
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_01: man reports to hospital in Wuhan,
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: China,
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: with cold-like symptoms.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: And that really took me back.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: You're talking November 2019.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: How did we all see the world, let alone the elections?
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: And how did we see things over the next year?
• 20:18
  I try and approach this kind of time frame at whenever I get to the end of the
• 20:23
  year.
• 20:23
  IthinkbacktothosemomentsthatItrytoapproachthistimeframewiththe
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: utmost humility,
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: because I think it's good to keep our eyes open to to the prospect of of
• 20:35
  major events that can shift politics and everything else along with it so
• 20:40
  i'llget
• 20:40
  all those caveats out of the way first here um clearly democrats are on
• 20:46
  offenseand
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_01: they have the wind at their backs right again uh
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: almost all the data that we have available to us,
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_01: whether it is special election results,
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: the regular election results from this past November,
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: the president's approval rating,
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: which is somewhere between,
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: depending on the average you look at,
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: probably minus 12 and minus 16 or 17,
• 21:11
  the generic ballot polling that we have where Democrats have a small but
• 21:15
  clearedge
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: of,
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: about four or five points,
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: All of that points to Democratic overperformance relative to last year.
• 21:28
  The thing that makes it complicated is that we still have probably 100
• 21:33
  districts,
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: if not more,
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: where we don't know what the lines will look like.
• 21:38
  And that makes people like you and me,
• 21:40
  our jobs,
• 21:41
  almost impossible because.
• 21:45
  There are seats hanging in the balance that we simply cannot assess because
• 21:49
  we
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: don't know what they're going to look like.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: There are things that I'm happy to speculate on.
• 21:53
  What the Supreme Court will decide in the Texas decision is not one of them.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: And that holds a half dozen seats in the balance there.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: What goes on in Missouri?
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: What happens in Virginia?
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: What happens in Florida?
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: What happens in Indiana and the state Senate next week?
• 22:12
  There are all of these fundamental questions that taken together probably
• 22:19
  affect
• 22:20
  You know,
• 22:20
  100 seats overall and on the battleground,
• 22:20
  20 seats,
• 22:23
  you know,
• 22:20
  15 to 20 seats.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: And that's that's a big swing.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, sure.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: If the map were taking place under the 2024 map,
• 22:33
  I think it's very easy to find the three seats Democrats need to flip back
• 22:37
  control.
• 22:37
  And it's very easy to find a bunch more that they could pick up to pad their
• 22:43
  majority in.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: That's not going to be the map that we are dealing with.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: And so you have to incorporate that kind of uncertainty.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: And that's before you get to looking at the Senate.
• 22:56
  And that's a whole other beast that is still tough sledding for Democrats.
• 23:01
  But again,
• 23:03
  when you're looking at the big picture,
• 23:04
  it's all about momentum.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_01: It's all about directionality.
• 23:09
  And things seem to be good and getting better for Democrats on a lot of these
• 23:14
  metrics.
• 23:15
  And so if your ultimate goal is to draw the inside straight of flipping Maine,
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_01: North Carolina,
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: and then two of Ohio,
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa,
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: Texas,
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_01: Alaska,
• 23:28
  you'remuchhappierwheneverything'sgoingrightthanyouareiftherewere
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: flashing warning signs along the way.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_02: No, absolutely.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_02: And yeah,
• 23:38
  obviously the Senate is is much tougher for Democrats because they have to
• 23:44
  winsome
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_02: seats that are more clearly right leaning.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_02: In fact,
• 23:47
  theyhavetowinsomeseatsthataresortofinthatrangeofifyouthinkabouta
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_02: 13 point swing.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_02: in the Tennessee race.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_02: And if we were just to go off of that and look at the House,
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_02: currently,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_02: and again,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_02: to your point,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_02: the lines are going to shift some,
• 24:03
  but there's like 40 some odd Republican seats that are to the left of R plus 13
• 24:09
  on
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_02: the 2024 presidential number.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_02: So held by Republicans.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_02: Again, things are going to shift some because of redistricting.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_02: Things will change further.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_02: What have you.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_02: But that's a large group.
• 24:22
  So if Democrats can find themselves in a position where they're making a play
• 24:26
  forlike
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_02: Montana's first district or something in the western part of the state,
• 24:31
  whichisaseatthatDonaldTrumpcarriedbyalittlelessthan12percentage
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_02: points in 2024,
• 24:37
  asjustanexampleoflikesortofanedgecaseseatthatDemocratsmighthave
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_02: hopes of chasing.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_02: You know, they'd be underdogs.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_02: But if we're sort of thinking about the possibilities here for them,
• 24:46
  that'saseatthatthey'regoingtowanttotargetandhopethatawavecatches
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_02: enough that they can flip it.
• 24:54
  TheproblemisforDemocratsisthatalotofthestatesthattheyneedtowinin
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_02: the Senate,
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_02: of course,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_02: are are much like that Montana seat,
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_02: a seat that I don't know what Trump won Ohio by what around 10.
• 25:07
  I mean,
• 25:08
  it's these these are the kinds of seats in Iowa,
• 25:11
  like these low double digit seats.
• 25:14
  uh so you're talking about the inside straight draw it's like they they have
• 25:17
  an
• 25:18
  open-ended straight draw for the house and very much an inside straight draw
• 25:23
  for
• 25:24
  for uh the senate uh but nonetheless they they do have opportunities and you
• 25:29
  know
• 25:29
  againwedon'tknowwheretheenvironmentwillgofromherebutithoughtthat
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_02: might be helpful
• 25:34
  It's just for people understanding if Democrats only need three seats and
• 25:36
  theyhave
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of seats potentially to target,
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans will have some to look at.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks to redistricting in part.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_02: But the Senate is is definitely a much higher hurdle.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: But if you're Democrats,
• 25:51
  you look at that 13 point on average shift and you look at some of the things
• 25:56
  that
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: are going right for you in some of these states.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_01: Again,
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think we've had a day since November,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: since the first Tuesday in November,
• 26:08
  where Democrats have gone to bed less confident than they were when they woke
• 26:13
  up.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, that makes perfect sense.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 26:21
  the thing that I constantly and I think this is probably a good time to bring
• 26:24
  this
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_02: up.
• 26:24
  I had this this chart ready just from like thinking about things generally
• 26:30
  again,
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_02: because we don't know.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_02: And every election is different.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_02: And the universe of seats that could be competitive in the House is.
• 26:37
  is smaller perhaps now than it has been in the past because things are more
• 26:42
  polarized.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_02: Also with the redistricting stuff going on,
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_02: more seats that are supposed to be sort of safe for one party.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_02: You're getting some competitive seats taken out.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_02: in that process.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_02: I talked about that recently on the podcast with Nathaniel Rakich.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless,
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_02: if President Trump's approval rating is in the low 40s,
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_02: I made this actually back,
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_02: this chart that's on screen right now,
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_02: back in August,
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_02: or July.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_02: It's been a while.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_02: And at the time, Trump's approval was around 45%.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_02: Now it's closer to like 42.
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, again, it depends on the average
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_02: But,
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 27:18
  thatwasatthetimewashistoricallyinlinewithabouta30seatlossinthe
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_02: House.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_02: And now that number bounces around a lot.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: You're fitting a small number of points to get to that result.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_02: But it does,
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 27:31
  shine a light on seeing the November election results and the swing that
• 27:37
  Democrats
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_02: enjoyed,
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_02: even though it was some blue states.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_02: you can't discount that Democrats were kind of winning across the board,
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_02: including in a lot of 50-50 places.
• 27:48
  And knowing that and then applying that and knowing that Donald Trump's
• 27:52
  approval
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_02: rating is in the low 40s.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_02: who knows what's going to happen in the next,
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_02: well,
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_02: 12 months,
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_02: 11 months.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless,
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_02: based on his first term,
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not I don't know if there's a great chance of it improving markedly.
• 28:09
  from where it's been,
• 28:10
  because he obviously is a very divisive picture,
• 28:14
  polarizing figure.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_02: People have very strong opinions about him one way or the other.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_02: It seems to me that that's kind of a fundamental problem here.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_02: And I actually wanted,
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_02: this was all kind of leading up to a question for you,
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_02: so I apologize for the long lead up.
• 28:31
  Thinking about Donald Trump and thinking about approval rating and
• 28:34
  thinkingabout
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_02: sort of the president's party,
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_02: One thing that I've been wondering about,
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_02: and I think the Tennessee election really raises this question,
• 28:42
  because we saw Republicans run a lot of ads without mentioning Donald Trump.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_02: So they're trying to sort of separate themselves.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_02: I was curious for your thoughts about Trump as,
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_02: if not lame duck,
• 28:53
  someone that suddenly not every Republican candidate is running every ad
• 28:57
  saying,
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_02: hey,
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_02: I'm with Donald Trump in a way that we haven't seen in recent times.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Geoff, this is a great chart.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: This is a wonderful graph that immediately catches my eye.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: I understood, but didn't really see it.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: Seeing it on paper is affecting how much of an outlier Obama in 2010 was.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: That
• 29:24
  Forty five percent approval and yet losing more seats than any other
• 29:28
  presidenthad
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: a lot to do with Democrats holding a lot of Republican leaning seats.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: Came back to bite them very hard.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_01: What a what a striking outlier there.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: But to to your your larger point.
• 29:45
  ItabsolutelyisunfamiliarterritoryforRepublicanstohavetodealwitha
• 29:53
  president that is so wounded politically as Trump is at this point in his
• 30:01
  political
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: career.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously,
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_01: they dealt with this a little bit in 2018,
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: but honestly,
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: in 2018,
• 30:10
  I think that they had more license to break from him than they did now because
• 30:14
  he
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_01: was still
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty fresh on the scene.
• 30:17
  He did not have the ironclad control over both the party apparatus and the
• 30:22
  voter
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_01: base that he has enjoyed since 2020,
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: arguably.
• 30:29
  I did think it was incredibly notable that Van Epps was not running ads with
• 30:34
  him
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: shaking hands with Trump all day,
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: every day,
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: that the Republican ads were not focused on Trump.
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_01: They weren't focused on the big,
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_01: beautiful bill,
• 30:44
  which is something that we hear Republican strategists talk about all the
• 30:47
  time,
• 30:48
  how the way they're going to keep the house is by running ads about the big,
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_01: beautiful bill and how popular its elements are,
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: like no tax on tips and
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_01: the no tax on Social Security and things like that.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_01: There was none of that in Matt Van Epps' advertising either.
• 31:04
  So,
• 31:05
  yeah,
• 31:06
  I think Republicans are going to have to kind of chart a new path here.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_01: And nobody really knows what that's going to look like,
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_01: especially because while Trump is diminished,
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_01: he certainly hasn't left the scene.
• 31:18
  We've seen that he has still tremendous political capital,
• 31:22
  financial capital at his disposal.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: He's laying a lot of that to bear on the Indiana Republicans right now.
• 31:30
  And those state senators are dealing with the pressures that come with
• 31:36
  separating
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_01: from Trump on even one kind of esoteric
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_01: issue, which is mid-decade redistricting.
• 31:45
  This is not something that is like the hottest button issue of the last 20
• 31:49
  years or something.
• 31:50
  This is a process question that has become a catalyst for nationwide
• 31:55
  campaigning,
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_01: death threats,
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_01: constant attention,
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: primary threats looking to 2026 and 2028.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: So there's still a lot of juice left in Trump's tank, even if it is
• 32:07
  pretty depleted relative to where he was,
• 32:10
  for instance,
• 32:11
  you know,
• 32:11
  a year ago or in 2020.
• 32:14
  So I don't know how Republicans are going to handle it because his
• 32:18
  endorsementis
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: still golden in a primary.
• 32:22
  His his sway is such that someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene lasted all of a
• 32:27
  week
• 32:28
  breaking from the president publicly on on an issue where she had
• 32:33
  overwhelming
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: support from the base.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: It's not as if the Republican base.
• 32:40
  liked how Trump was handling the Epstein files,
• 32:43
  approved of keeping them under wraps.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think voters by and large were on her side.
• 32:49
  AndyetthemereactofbreakingwithTrumponthatandonsomeoftheseother
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_01: issues surrounding the shutdown was enough to push her out of Congress.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's going to be a really delicate dance for Republicans.
• 33:04
  And I think that if the president is still at 42 percent approval or even
• 33:10
  lower,
• 33:10
  there was a Gallup poll out the other day that had him as low as 36 percent.
• 33:16
  They're going to have to get real creative and they're going to have to hope
• 33:19
  that
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: that happens before the primaries instead of after,
• 33:22
  becausethewaytogetthroughtheseprimariesisstilltobetheTrumpiest
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_01: candidate.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_02: and,
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 33:29
  this is where exactly what the actual House battlefield looks like is going
• 33:33
  tobe
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_02: important,
• 33:34
  because if we're talking about this being more of a thing in a Republican
• 33:37
  primary,
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_02: in a seat that has been drawn to be heavily Republican in,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_02: say,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_02: Indiana,
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_02: where the...
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_02: the nine seats there.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_02: Currently, Republicans hold seven of nine.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_02: But they are the map,
• 33:51
  ifitweretopassthattheythattheyarelookingatandtheycouldalsochange
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_02: that map.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_02: But currently,
• 33:56
  the proposal that has been making the rounds would essentially make the
• 34:00
  first
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_02: district,
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_02: which is held by Frank Mrvan,
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_02: a I think it was Trump plus 12 district.
• 34:06
  And then the the rest of the map goes about carving up Indianapolis and the
• 34:11
  seventh
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_02: district currently held by Democrat André Carson.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_02: into,
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_02: like I could think across four districts,
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_02: and all of them are basically like Trump plus 18 or better in 2024.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_02: So very, very hard for a Democrat to actually win those seats.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, so, uh,
• 34:29
  If it's a Republican primary,
• 34:32
  obviously Donald Trump's position and who he's endorsing is big.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_02: he endorsed Van Epps in the Republican primary for this special election,
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_02: for instance,
• 34:39
  and Van Epps went on to win with a little bit more than 50% in the GOP primary.
• 34:44
  But in some of these seats that are a little more competitive or even
• 34:48
  potentiallya
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_02: little bit more competitive,
• 34:51
  it does raise some interesting prospects about how Republicans may want to
• 34:56
  goabout
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_02: campaigning.
• 34:57
  Something that did cross our mind as we were talking about this is that – and
• 35:02
  maybe
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_02: it's a little tangential,
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_02: but I think it could be a little telling,
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_02: which is –
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_02: Elise Stefanik, who is obviously a very notable member of the U.S.
• 35:11
  House of Representatives and is running for governor of New York and is
• 35:16
  probably
• 35:16
  SPEAKER_02: going to be the Republican nominee for governor.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_02: We'll see that there's good reason to think that she she will be.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously, New York is not an easy state to win as a Republican.
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_02: But I did think it was really interesting that she has sort of declared,
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 35:30
  war on Speaker Mike Johnson in the last day or two in a really public way.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_02: And so I was like,
• 35:37
  when I was thinking about how you try to differentiate yourself is by trying
• 35:43
  to
• 35:43
  attack Republican leadership in the House as a way of avoiding attacking
• 35:46
  Trump,
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_02: because Stefanik is never going to separate herself from Trump.
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_02: She has very much committed herself to being close to Donald Trump.
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_02: So I didn't know if you had any thoughts about that.
• 35:56
  It struck me as an interesting development in sort of internal Republican
• 36:01
  politics.
• 36:02
  Yeah,
• 36:03
  I'm not quite sure why she made the decision to go after Johnson in such a
• 36:09
  public manner.
• 36:11
  I'm not convinced necessarily that this is a triangulation on her part ahead
• 36:16
  ofthe
• 36:16
  SPEAKER_01: governor's race.
• 36:17
  I'm not sure that it matters to New York voters whether she likes or dislikes
• 36:23
  Mike Johnson.
• 36:24
  I'm not sure how many voters in New York state could pick Mike Johnson out of a
• 36:28
  lineup.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_01: So I
• 36:30
  I don't know why she has chosen the path that she has over the last couple days,
• 36:36
  but I guess I'm not yet convinced that that is a play to make herself look a
• 36:42
  little
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_01: more moderate or get around having to
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_01: in keeping Republican incumbents in tough districts in place.
• 37:09
  SPEAKER_01: And with only three exceptions,
• 37:11
  theyhavemanagedtokeepalloftheirbattlegroundincumbentsrunningfor
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_01: reelection.
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_01: Now, they weren't able to stop Don Bacon from retiring.
• 37:21
  And Bacon is probably at this point the most vocal critic of Trump from kind of
• 37:27
  the
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_01: middle in the Republican caucus,
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_01: setting aside Thomas Massie,
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_01: Rand Paul.
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_01: John James, who I think they did try and stop from running statewide.
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_01: And from what I understand,
• 37:41
  thereasonwhyJohnJamesislaunchforgovernorwassorushedwasbecausehe
• 37:47
  wanted to get ahead of whatever the White House was planning to keep him
• 37:51
  running
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: for the House.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_01: Beat the pressure campaign.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_01: Get out of it.
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_01: Literally.
• 37:57
  And even then,
• 37:57
  I'll note John James kept half a million dollars in his House campaign
• 38:01
  account.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_01: Just in case.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_01: And then,
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_01: David Schweikert,
• 38:07
  whoIthinkisisisrunningforgovernororisretiringbywayofrunningfor
• 38:14
  governorinaprimarythatheisalmostfortheothertwocandidatesorhave
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_01: Trump's endorsement.
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_01: And that can go either way.
• 38:22
  Either you look at it and you say Trump's already endorsed two candidates.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_01: He's not going to endorse anyone else.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: Or you can say normally he only endorses one.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_01: Now he's endorsed two.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe he'll endorse three.
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_01: Who's to say?
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_01: But other than that,
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_01: you take a guy like Zach Nunn in Iowa three,
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_01: the Des Moines district that is is on the battlefield.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_01: And this is a guy who wanted to run for governor, got shot down.
• 38:48
  wanted to run for Senate in the open seat after Joni Ernst announced she
• 38:52
  wouldn't
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: run for reelection,
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: got shot down,
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_01: floated another gubernatorial bid,
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: got shot down,
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_01: then floated moving districts to the fourth district,
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: which is open as a much more Republican district.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_01: That got shot down as well.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: You have Mike Lawler in New York 17, wanted to run for governor.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: He got shot down.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_01: Trump went with Stefanik instead.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 39:16
  And I think obviously incumbents are stronger generally and the White House
• 39:20
  wants
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_01: to keep Republican incumbents in those competitive races.
• 39:26
  ButIthinkabyproductofthatisit'seasierultimatelyforanincumbentto
• 39:31
  create a little bit of distance from Trump if they are reading the writing on
• 39:36
  the
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: wall than it is for primary candidates to do so.
• 39:41
  If you're locked in a Republican primary that isn't going to be resolved
• 39:46
  untila
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_01: couple months before Election Day,
• 39:48
  youcan'tcreateanydistancebetweenyourselfandTrumpuntilyougetthe
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_01: nomination.
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_01: And so,
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if that's why the White House,
• 39:58
  SPEAKER_01: part of the White House's calculation here,
• 40:00
  but I think it is beneficial for Republicans that in most of these
• 40:04
  competitive
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_01: districts,
• 40:06
  they don't have to worry about primaries dragging their candidates toward
• 40:11
  Trump.
• 40:11
  Now,
• 40:12
  all of their candidates,
• 40:12
  by virtue of being members of Congress,
• 40:14
  arealreadypretty
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_01: closely attached to the president,
• 40:17
  but they have a little bit more flexibility than if they were required every
• 40:21
  dayto
• 40:22
  prove for their political life that they were the Trumpiest candidate of the
• 40:25
  bunch.
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_02: And most of those incumbents will not have much primary competition.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_02: They won't have to be running ads,
• 40:34
  attaching themselves to the president constantly ahead of the election
• 40:38
  untilyou
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_02: get closer to the election.
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_02: And then they may try other forms of messaging.
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_02: And obviously,
• 40:42
  someonelikeMikeLawlerinaswingseatalreadyhasquiteabitofpracticeat
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_02: that.
• 40:49
  SoithasshownperhapsevidenceofbeingabletorunaheadoftheRepublican
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_02: ticket and sort of the Republican baseline in his.
• 40:59
  AndsoIdothinkanditactuallyremindsmealittlebitofsomeDemocratsin
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_02: 2024,
• 41:05
  thinking about the fact that Donald Trump won the national popular vote by
• 41:08
  abouta
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_02: point and a half.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans won a narrow 220 to 215 majority.
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_02: And I do think Democrats were aided in the House, the U.S.
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_02: House specifically.
• 41:19
  Democrats got close to having a shot at a majority in part because they held on
• 41:23
  to
• 41:23
  SPEAKER_02: a bunch of seats with narrow margins.
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_02: And this was also somewhat in 2022 as well.
• 41:28
  SPEAKER_02: And some of that was helped out by particular candidate strengths,
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_02: in some cases incumbents,
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_02: in some cases weaker opponents.
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_02: So if you keep more strong incumbents in place,
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_02: if you're the Republicans,
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_02: maybe you're giving yourself,
• 41:42
  you're improving your chances marginally enough in a lot of seats where it
• 41:45
  could
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_02: add up and get them closer to holding on to things.
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_02: Well,
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_02: hey,
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_02: Jacob,
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_02: we've been talking for a little bit here and I think this has been very
• 41:56
  illuminating on kind of trying to place the Tennessee election in context
• 42:00
  withthe
• 42:01
  SPEAKER_02: larger House pictures we look at to 2026.
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_02: Still a million unknowns, as we have, I think, hopefully made clear.
• 42:08
  SPEAKER_02: to people listening and watching at home.
• 42:11
  But I really appreciate you coming on the podcast and talking about all this
• 42:15
  with me.
• 42:16
  SPEAKER_02: Again, it's Jacob Rubashkin, the deputy editor at Inside Elections.
• 42:21
  SPEAKER_02: You can check out his work there.
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_02: Inside Elections does great work.
• 42:24
  SPEAKER_02: It's one of the sort of the premier ratings outlets.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_02: So if you're curious which way a race might be leaning or tilting,
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_02: you can go there and check it out.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_02: And I'm Geoffrey Skelley.
• 42:37
  SPEAKER_02: I'm the chief elections analyst here at Decision Desk.
• 42:39
  SPEAKER_02: And we will have plenty more where this came from in the months to come.
• 42:43
  SPEAKER_02: So again, Jacob, thanks for joining me.
• 42:46
  SPEAKER_02: Of course, this was fun.