Latest / Toadstool Sports / MLB Playoffs + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Tuesday 9/30/25

Transcript

MLB Playoffs + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Tuesday 9/30/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Own four, I have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Man, with Wickens slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Reached a new pink.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: don't know what is going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: The worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you. This is better off dead
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: for Tuesday, September thirtieth. You guys might not be happy
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: with me, but I'm gonna have a second day in
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: a row where I'm not gonna give out any place.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I don't love the baseball slate today, don't love the
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: singular WNBA game.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about all of them, but.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to force anything really, so
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: not gonna do it. But we will talk about everything here.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So I think we just get right into it, man.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if we have anything to
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: really talk about as far as what else happened as
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: far as the weekend's latest concerned, although I did forget
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: to mention that in that Colts game, not only was
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: that holding call that took away that game probably what
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: should have been the game when he touchdown, the call
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: that took that away, that was on the wide receiver
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: who also lost the ball on what was going.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: To be a sure touchdown in the middle of the game.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: That was gonna give Indy I believe in the lead
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: back again in the middle of the game, he had
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. It was another great play that got erased
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: because he fumbled it into the end zone at like
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the one inch line, one inch away from it being
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. And then, of course what happens if you
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: fumble it through the end zone where by the way,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: if you fumble it to the left, you're gonna get
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: the ball at the one yard line, but if you
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: fumble it forwards, then you lose possession of the ball completely.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: The touchback rule is the worst rule in the NFL.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: There's no question about it. You can't be one inch
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: away from getting a touchdown, and just because of that,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: you don't even get possession anymore. Like, if you want
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: to make it a penalty, fine, set them back ten
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: yards whatever, make it like a touchback for that, like,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: make it like a reverse touchback, right, Like if that happens,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I think the team should maintain possession, but set them
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: back to the twenty or something like that.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Like that would be way more fair.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Giving the other team the ball based on like one
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: inch and kind of where the.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Ball goes is just so ridiculous. I hate it. So
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: that happened in that Colts game too, and then last night.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there's really a whole I don't
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: know if we have many takeaways from last night, although
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: my Leans were one and one in those games. The
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Dolphins won, although they lost Tyreek Hill. I assume for
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: the season, his career might be over. Man, this Dolphin offense,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: it's still not good. It's not going to be good.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: The Jets are also, I mean the Jets, they're bad.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: They're trying to adapt to a new coaching system. I
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: think they're probably still better than the Dolphins, but I
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: didn't like the spot really for the Jets there. And
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: then Cincinnati, I mean they are just without Joe Burrow,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: they look like a complete dormat. I mean, it's just
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: absolutely crazy how bad their offense is right now without
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. I mean, that is a huge drop off
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: to Browning. I don't know what else to say about it.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Like their defense isn't good either, although the game was
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: pretty low scoring last night. But I mean Denver is
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: not really a high powered offense. But Denver is a
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: good defense though, so they that is a defense that's
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: gonna make Cincinnati's offense look probably worse than it really is.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: But man, that Jake Browning offense, Man, that looked bad
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: two weeks in a row against two good defenses though,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and Denver.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: All right, WNBA.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Today we have Game five of Indiana at Las Vegas.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Vegas is an eight point favorite.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: They have fifty six percent to ticket sixty two percent
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I think, if you're gonna
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: play this game, you gotta lay the points with Vegas.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, they are three and one at home in
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. I know they didn't cover this number in
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: one of those wins. They did in the other two.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Of course, they lost the last game at Indiana Indiana
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: staying alive. But this Indiana team, man, I mean they're
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: less experienced than Vegas. They have a thinner roster as
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: we know they're I mean they're playing really well despite
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: being without Clark and Cunningham.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: It's crazy that they're doing this. But Vegas is the
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: better team, man.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I think it's just going to come to an end
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: here for Indiana I'm not saying they're gonna get annihilated
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: like they did in Game two, which by the way.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: Was a play I gave out on the show.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: I don't want to quite give it out here, although
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I think in Game two in the line was actually
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit higher. I believe I'm looking at the
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: wrong game here. I think Vegas was like eight and
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: a half nine Actually they were nine and a half
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: when the game went off at Game two. I think
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I gave it out at eight and a half. So
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: you are actually getting maybe a little bit of line
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: value on this if you do like Vegas on the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: line is a little bit lower than it was in
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: the other home games.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: It is a zigzag spot.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, they did lose at Indiana as a favorite
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: in the previous games, so that doesn't mean that you're
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: probably gonna get refocused from the better team. They're the
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: team that's gonna have the adjustments to make Indiana is
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: better at home than they are on the road. Vegas
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: not as good on the road, So you're getting Vegas
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: at home this timer. They were seventeen and five throughout
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: the regular season, so the home advantage is something. Indiana
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: was only eleven and eleven on the road, so it
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: does matter for sure this game, Indiana did have the
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: lead the whole game. The stats weren't really that misleading,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Like if this was a big time outlier against statistically,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I'd be looking at this and saying, yeah, like we
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: should lay the points to Vegas.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I still think that is the move, but it's not
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: strong enough to give out a play on it. But
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a decisive game, five man, it's
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: at home. Typically the better team is gonna be the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: winning team, and if they win, I think they're likely
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: to cover as well. It kind of goes the same
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: way in the NBA too, So that's yeah, those are
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: my thoughts on that.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: I think Vegas is the right side.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: And then we got Major League Baseball playoffs where you
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: have to take into aunt a few different things in
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the playoffs here, man, where I do like I talk
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: about this in any sports where the playoffs can kind
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: of be like a reset like you had yesterday off.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: The regular season's over now, so I kind of like
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: leaning towards teams that didn't finish the regular season on
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: like a hot note or anything, like they kind of
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: ended the regular season kind of poorly. Because now they're
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs and they can be like, Okay, this
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: is a new ballgame.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Basically we can just reset and play.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So I kind of like to lean towards those teams,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and you're gonna get a little bit of value, right
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: because the public is always kind of resets the oriented like.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: What have you done for me lately?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: And then the opposite side of things, teams have finished
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: the season looking really really hot. I tend to want
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: to kind of lean against those teams. So we're gonna
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: see what happens here. I don't love enough of these
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: to give out a play. We're gonna basically have matchups
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: of like ACE versus ACE, and a lot of these
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: games here in game one, Man, these teams are not
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: messing around here. Detroit at Cleveland is the first game
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: up at one pm Eastern.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a pitching to well.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, the total is so low that even though
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I looked at this and I was like, this looks
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: like it's gonna be an under, so I was thinking
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: about maybe giving out the under in this game. Sixty
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the tickets, it's seventy eight percent of
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: the catch on the over and though in the total
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: drop from six and a half to six. I mean,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: this is playoff baseball. That mean you're getting to weather
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit cooler, especially somewhere like Cleveland.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: It might not be that warm in this game. I
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: don't I don't know what.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: The temperature is gonna be. It's not really cool yet
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: here though, but we're.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Getting it to fall. I mean, I'm in Boston.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: But the playoffs just tend to be lower scoring anyway,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: because you get more focused pitching, focused fielding, Like teams
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: just have more focus. It's kind of a it's a
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: game of inches more so. So playoffs do tend to
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: be a little bit lower scoring. But this game, especially,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: it does look like a pitching due. But you know, me,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I can't go under a six. I mean, that is
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: a ridiculous number. It looks it's almost it's juice to
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: the under to at this point. So it's almost headed
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: to it's five and a half on the full game.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, Cleveland has a really good bullpen. They have
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a bad off Detroit as the better offense, Cleveland as
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Detroit's bullpen isn't too bad. And then
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: of course we do have Schooble on the.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Mound for Detroit.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So there are a lot of things that kind of
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: indicate undering this game, but that's why the oddsmakers have
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: put out this total that's so low that you can't
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: even really play the under Schooble had an excellent season obviously,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: two point two to one ERA point eight nine whip.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: He's only a little bit worse on the road two
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: point three ERA in the road, good final month of
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: the season, twenty five to six strike out walk ratio
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: two point four two ERA.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: He faced Cleveland twice to.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Finish the season, so this is also pretty odd that
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: he's facing Cleveland three starts in a row now, but
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: he had no problem with them and either of the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: other ones, except he did kind of walk too many guys.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: But he's still had a seventeen to five strike a.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Walk ratio over those two starts in twelve innings, allowed
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: only two earned runs combined.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: So he does handle Cleveland.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: It's just that Detroit lost both those games because they
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: couldn't score at all. His numbers are good against Cleveland
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty eight a BA. I mean, they've
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: experience against them, and they still can't hit him fifty
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts, nine walks, ridiculous strikeout walk ratio there, two
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: point fifteen average allowed, five eighty ops allowed.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, obviously he handles Cleveland.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: But Cleveland is gonna go with Gavin Williams instead of
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Tanner Byby here. I think they realize that Williams is
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: their best shot to basically dual Schoolble in this game.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: I would agree that they're right about that. I think
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: their management here their manager, I forget who their manager
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: even is, but it makes sense to actually use Williams
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: in this one. He's actually had the better season than
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Biby as well. The only thing is maybe he's a
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: little bit less experience, But I do think he was
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: in their playoff rotation last year too, So you're dealing
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: with a couple of starting pitchers here.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Both have some playoff experience at the very least.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Williams three point oh six ERA, one point twenty seven
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: whip on the season. The whip was a little bit
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: too high. He was a little bit better at home
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: with a three ERA. Finished the season strong one point
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: eight eight ERA over this month. Cleveland actually won five
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: starts in a row of his somewhat too many walks.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: Thirty strikeouts is really good.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: This month, but ten walks. But other than that, I
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: mean really good numbers overall. He's allowed two or fewer
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: earned runs in his last five starts. His last two
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: were both against Detroit, and he picked up wins in
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: both of them, and I think those might have both
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: been against Scooball as well. So this is gonna be
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the third game in a row that's Williams versus I
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: don't know it was Williams versus Flaherty and one of
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: those my mistake.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: So both starting pitchers are.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Facing the same offense for the third straight game, though,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: but I don't think they're facing each other the third
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: straight game. They did face each other in the last game, though,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: so it's a rematch of the last game. So it
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: is an interesting pitching matchup here for sure. Gavin Williams
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: actually does well against Detroit two one hundred and twenty
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: five career at bats fifty to thirteen strike a walk ratio.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: He holds Detroit to a one sixty eight average over
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: that huge sample five h two ops. So Williams does
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: pitch well against Detroit as well. So how do we
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: want to handle this one. Whoop, said Jeffrey, what's up?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Man clicked on the wrong I clicked on the stupid
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: default streamyard comment. There you have a series winner Parlay Detroit,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: San Diego, Boston and the Reds at twenty nine to one.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I hope that wins man.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Reds are obviously the least
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: likely of those two win. I just don't see the
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Reds winning. But they do have Terry francona man, I mean,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: very very good manager there. But I mean going up
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers, Dodgers have a really really good starting
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: pitching rotation. Cincinnati's is all right, though I don't know, though, Man,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Dodgers hit really well at home. Dodgers have a lot
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: more experience. I worry about that part of it. I
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: think the other ones are more likely to happen, of course.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I actually I agree with you on Detroit. I somewhat
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: agree with you on San Diego. I don't see the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Red Sox being able to win here. I mean, it's
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: kind of a young, inexperienced Red Sox team.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: I just don't love it.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: But I hope that wins Man's to pay out nicely
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: anyway Detroit to Cleveland, though, I would lean to Detroit
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: in this game. Overall, though, I just think Schooble obviously
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: gives them the best chance to win. I mean, he
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: he's probably gonna win the Cy young. He is probably
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: the best pitcher in baseball. I mean, this is what
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: they have him for a game like this.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: I think it will be close. I think it's gonna
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: be low scoring.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Detroit is up for minus one forty eight to minus
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: one fifty eight, though, and it's like, I know, you're
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: paying like a huge price just for Schooble on the mount.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: It's too much of a price to lay on Detroit. Man,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: That's what I would say, Even though I think they
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: will win this game. I was expecting a cheaper price
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: on Detroit. The money is coming in on Detroit though,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent tickets, eighty percent of the cash coming
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: in on Detroit. Some money is coming in on Detroit.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, I just don't see it at
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: this price. I think it's too much of a price
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: a road favorite like that against Williams, who's probably gonna.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Be able to pitch okay here, low scoring game.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think Detroit's offense is gonna wind up
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: being the difference here because Cleveland really can't hit that
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: and I think the hype is just all in Cleveland
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: right now. Everybody's talking about Cleveland, how they made this
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: huge run to make the playoffs, Detroit at this epic collapse,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: and the public is all recency biased for the most part,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: So they kind of like Cleveland in this game in
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: this series really more than they like Detroit, So that
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: has been kind of leaning to Detroit as well. Detroit,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: they have their chance right now, right like, what better
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: way to get revenge right against collapsing and losing the
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: division like Detroit did than to get to play the
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: team that overtook you in the first round of the
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: playoffs and just end their season. So I think Detroit
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: does actually have a little bit more motivation in this series,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: and they are the better team. I mean, they're not
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: as good as they looked, you know, in the middle
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: of the season, they looked like one of the best
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: teams in baseball. I don't think they're that good, but
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: I still think they're better than Cleveland. So again that
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: is also being factor into the line there. San Diego
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: at Chicago here this game, this is at Wrigley Field.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be in the afternoon, three pm Eastern ABC.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: As far as which of these teams ended the season hotter,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: I think San Diego kind of did, but Chicago did
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: end with a sweep of Saint Louis, so they kind
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: of ended on a hot note after they were basically
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: just not paying attention anymore. They faced some teams that
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: were really battling, like they had to face Cincinnati and
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the Mets, who were both battling.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: For the last wildcards.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: So the Cubs just didn't have as much motivation as
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: those teams did. But they did finish with a sweep
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: of Saint Louis and now they're kind of finishing on
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: a hot note again, which kind of makes me like
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the Cubs a little bit less. Here.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: San Diego finished hot as well, though with a sweep.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Over Arizona, who actually was still fighting to make the
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: playoffs and ended Arizona season. They did also play well
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: against Milwaukee coming in into the playoffs here San Diego,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, they think they have a little bit of
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: experience because they've been to the playoffs recently. I'm not
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: sure if the Cubs did make the playoffs last year.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Did they I don't remember if they did or if
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: they didn't. We're looking at a couple of pretty experienced
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: pitchers here, though, has a lot of playoff experience, and
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I think maybe that might be the difference in this game.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: San Diego does have the better bullpen as well.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: The hitting is better on the side of Chicago on
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, but I tend to like pitching over hitting,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: and that's what you might get. Like the bullpen for
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: San Diego might wind up being the difference here if
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: you're gonna if you're looking at what's maybe gonna be
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: a close game later into the game. Nick Pavetta good
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: season for him from San Diego, A two point eight
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: seven ERA, point nine to nine whip.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: He's definitely used to pitching in the playoffs. Man.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: He isn't as good on the road though, so that
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: is a concern a three point five to five road ERA.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: He finished the season strong, twenty three to eight strike
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio three point zero nine ERA. He did
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: walk five guys in his last outing though, against Milwaukee,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: so that is maybe a little bit concerning that he
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: lost control in that start, but his control has been
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: good otherwise, so I think that's more of just kind
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: of an outlier, like I don't really necessarily expect that
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: to be the case again here. But the other thing
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: you do have to worry about about Paveta is he's
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: not going to against the Cobs in one hundred and
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: six at bats thirty two to ten strike a walk
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: ratio three to oh two, average allowed eight fifty three ops.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: So Nick Pavetta, he is definitely a concern on the
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: road and against the Cubs. So I do worry about
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Pavetta in this one. Man, Jeffrey, thanks for hanging out,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Man Leans for tomorrow's games. Interesting, Tomorrow's still Tomorrow's basically
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: just all Major League baseball, I think, right, we got
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: to see what I gotta see what the games are
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: tomorrow because they're gonna be four more Wait, are their
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: former baseball games tomorrow or is this it? Actually it's
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: probably the games two of the series tomorrow, right because
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: we're in the Wildcard round right now, right, so the
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: other teams that aren't playing get buys. So I'll have
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: to look at what the matchups are for tomorrow. But yeah,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: there are some concerns with Pavetta, even though obviously San
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Diego has to use him in the series. I mean,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: he is one of their best pitchers, so they have
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: pretty much no choice but to use him. He's going
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: up against Matthew Boyd, who had a good season for
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the Cobs three point two to one ERA one point
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: zero nine one. He's really good at home two point
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: five one ERA, so Boyd does have the home road splits.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Cubs won his last three outings, but he wasn't exactly
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: great down the stretch here Man I talked about this.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: I thought he looked like he was wearing down.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: He gave up four.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Or more on runs in five of his last seven outings.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: He had a five point three to one ERA in
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: the last month of the season, twelve to five strike
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate was down.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: He was not pitching as effectively man, And he faced
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: some kind of weak offenses down over that stretch too.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: A couple of better ones too, but some of those
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: starts where he gave up some of those runs where
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: one was that course field. But still the Rockies offense
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: not good at San Francisco. That's not a good sign.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: He gainst Pittsburgh not a good sign, although those were
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: all on the road. But then he also did it
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: at home against Tampa Bay. Gave up four and runs
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: or more, and all of those outings not necessarily a
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: good sign. I talked about this man. I think Boyd,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: even though he does have some playoff experience, he threw
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy nine and two thirds in this year,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: and he has not thrown that many innings. Is twenty nineteen,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and he's much older now, so I definitely worry about
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: him wearing down more than I worry about Pavetta, because
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Paveta is more used to this grind Boyd up against
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: San Diego here he does have the better matchup numbers,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: but it's not by a whole lot. Sixty eight at
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: bats against them, thirteen to four, strike a walk, ratios
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: all right, two seventy nine, batting average allowed, seven to
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: forty one ohps. So he's okay against San Diego, but
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: not great. Yes, you gotta worry about the other numbers.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: With Paveta on.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Cubs up for
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: minus one fifteen and minus.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: One twenty two.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Fifty tickets, fifty four percent of the cash coming in
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: on the Cubs. Total drop from seven to seven juice
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: to the under, So I mean it might wind up
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: hitting six and a half. He has seventy five percent
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over seventy two percent of the
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: cash on the over, so the over is public less
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: of the money.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: On the over.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I would kind of lead to an over in this game, though, Man,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I think there are some concerns with both starting pitchers
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: coming into this one, so I would consider, Yeah, I
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: mean probably that would be the way that I would lean.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: In this game. Actually would be towards the over.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're not getting a whole lot of room
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: for error there if you try to play an under there,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: especially if this drops a six and a half, I
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: think it might be worth a shot on the over there.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: Seven is a key number because it breaks a three
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: three tigh. I mean I worry about the bullpens.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Obviously, you have two pretty solid bullpens here, especially San Diego,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: so you might see runs scored less in the later parts.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Of this game.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, I think it is kind of
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: a sneaky over with these two pitchers look like they
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: had really good seasons, but as I pointed out, there
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: are some issues potentially with both of those pitchers. In
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: this particular game, So yeah, I could definitely potentially see
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: an over I don't quite want to give that out
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: as a play though. Into the evening slate we have
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Red Sox Yankees. I mean, the rivalry has returned. The
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have done well against the Yanks over the
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: last couple of years. Man, even though the Yankees have
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: been the better overall team, the Red Sox seem to
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: always play them well. Red Sox were nine to four
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees this year. They did well against them.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Yankees finished the season really hot, so you do have
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: to worry about maybe there being some momentum disruption here
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: because they won their last eight.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: Games in a row.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: But all of those wins were against Baltimore and the
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: White Sox, so they did that against bad teams. The
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Yankees this year they really beat up on bad teams,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: and they actually didn't do as well against winning teams
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: this year. So that is a bit of a concern
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: with the Yankees here that they didn't play as well
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: against better teams. I think the Yankees pitching is not
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: as good as some of these other teams in the
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: playoffs here. The Red Sox pitching, I'm not really too
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: trustworthy of them either, though, like the starting rotation, Red
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: Sox do have a better bullpen here. The Yankees bullpen
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: has been a concern for pretty much all year. The
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Yankees offense is obviously really good. The Red Sox offense
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: is decent as well, but the Yankees offense is one
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: of the top in all baseball. So that is pretty
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: much what got them here. That plus a little bit
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: of their starting pitching. But obviously we're looking at the
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: matchup of the aces here. It's Garrett Crochet against Max Freed,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: which I believe is a lefty on lefty matchup as well.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: This is a good starting pitching matchup.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Man. As far as the market, the market read is
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: indicating on the Red Sox a little bit, with the
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: Yankees not a huge favorite at minus one thirty. I mean,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: everybody knows these are both good pitchers, but the Yankees.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: You're always gonna pretty much have to pay a bit
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: of a price on the Yankees, especially with Freed on
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: the mound sixty seven percent of tickets on them, only
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash, So the money seems
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: to be thinking the Red Sox can hang in this game.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: I kind of agree with it. I mean, I don't
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: want to be a homer here.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get my hopes up that the
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Red Sox might be able to win this series, although
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: if they're able to take game one, I mean, maybe
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: there's a decent shot at it. Man, if they're able
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: to cancel out Freed here in this one, which Crochet
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: definitely has the ability to match or even outpitch Freed,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is certainly a possibility that you can
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: do that if it's later into game.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Into the game.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox do have a bullpen edge, but the
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Yankees have the hitting edge. But I could see the
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: argument for the Red Sox here, and the Red Sox
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: didn't finish the season is hot.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: The Yankees with the longest win.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Streak, I think for any team at the end of
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: the season, not really the way you want to go
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs, to be honestly, I think they kind
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: of they probably should have taken a loss in there,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: but they were trying to win the division, which they
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: did not do. But yeah, I mean it could be
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a disruption having to come into
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. You get a day off playoffs kind of
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: like a reset. And you don't really want to go
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs on a huge win streak like that.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: This game on ESPN. By the way, the ESPN is
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a triple header, getting every game except San Diego and Chicago.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: But ABC is on the ESPN networks as well. Hey, finally,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: ESPN is giving you some baseball beside Sunday night, and
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: it's Baseball playoffs, so like, all right, let's televise baseball now.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: As far as what these pitchers have done, Garret Crochet,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, great season for him. He's in the Cy
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Young picture at least two point five NINETYRA, one point
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: zero three WHIP. He was actually better on the road
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: two point two five ROADRA finished the season pretty strong.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Three point five five VRA was a little bit higher
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: than you used to from him because he did give
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: up seven runs in one game against Cleveland inexplicably, but
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox did win his last seven outings. Other
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: than that seven run out perst he allowed three or
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: four earned runs in his last eight outings. He had
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: a forty one to four strike at walker RA. He
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: should have finished the season in the final month, including
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: facing the A's on the road. The Yankees Tampa on
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the road and Toronto on the road, so not an
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: easy sleight of offenses to face, really, or easy parks
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: to pitch in, and he did well anyway down the stretch.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: So I think the concerns that he might be wearing down,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: because this is by far the most innings that he's
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: ever thrown in his life, I think those concerns are
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: just kind of not there. I mean, he just he
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: seems like he's fine still. And he also did have
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: a ridiculou his five point five strike out walk ratio
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: over the course of the entire season, I mean, pretty
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: elite stuff from Crochet man. I know he's facing one
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: of the elite lineups here in the Yankees.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: I like good pitching over good hitting.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: He has done well against the Yankees in the past,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: including his most recent start against him was decent as well,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: and the Red Sox did win that game. One hundred
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: and eight at bats against them, forty five to four
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio is pretty insane two twenty two
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed six to sixty seven oh ps, so
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: crochet has done well against the Yankees. He gave up
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: three runs last time out against the Yankees at Fenway,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: but they didn't really do much off of him. They
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: had fewer hits in innings pitch twelve to one strike
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: at walk ratio. So I do think Crochet should be
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: pretty good coming into this one. He is going up
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: against Freed, though, Like I said, Freed good season for him.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: A bit of a rough stretch in the middle of
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: the season, but he bounced back towards the end of
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the season, so he's in good form as well right now.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: He had a two point eight sixty RA point one
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: whip on the season. Now, the one concern about Crochet,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: by the way, is he does not have a playoff experience.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: He was pitching for the White Sox.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: So he's not used to a big, you know, this
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: huge high pressure situation. But I don't know if that's
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: really gonna affect him. I mean, he's so good that
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not really too worried about that affecting him. Fred
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: has playoff experience, obviously because he was on the Braves,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: so he does have some playoff experience. He had a
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: good season two point three seven home yeah as well,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: so he was good at home, finished with a good
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: final month. The Yankees actually won his last six outings,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: including his start against the Red Sox, which wasn't that great,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: but the.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Yankees won it.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: He did give up nine hits him five and a
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: third innings in that one, held the Red Sox to
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: two earn runs, but kind of a concern that he
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: put eleven guys on base two walks in that outing
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: as well with six strikeouts, but he kind of got
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: away with putting a lot of guys on base in
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: that when Red Sox kind of failed with Rose's scoring
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: position I think in that game. But overall, Freed did
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: have a one point eight ninety or thirty five to
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: nine strike a walk retie over the final month of
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: though the good offense that the offenses that he faced
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: are really just Toronto Boston. I guess Houston you could
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: argue was in that mix too, and again the Boston
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: out he could have allowed more runs.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: His matchup stats are a little bit worse than Crochetes
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: are here.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox still haven't hit Freed that well though
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: in ninety three at bats thirty to twelve strike up
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: walk risham mean he doesn't dominate the Red Sox two
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: thirty seven batting average allot is low seven hundred ohps,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: though I mean they have some power off him. It's
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: mostly story though, with two of them runs off and
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Bregman has hit him well too though, five for thirteen
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: of the homer and.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: Three walks, so we will see.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: So I do think Crochet you could argue he does
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: have a somewhat of a matchup edge here against Freed.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean I could see the arguments for
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox there. I hope it happens, but I'm
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: not holding my breath. And then we finished with another
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: pretty good pitching matchup in It's Nattie and the Dodgers.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: There By the way, for the total on that Red
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Sox game, Red Sox Yankees game, sixty two tickets and
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: cash on the over, the total flip from seven juice
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: to the over to seven juice to the under. I
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: think if you wanted to go under in that game,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: it would have to be in the first five innings.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't trust the Yankees bullpen order the
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Red Sox bullpen, I guess is all right, But you're
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: also you're not gonna get a good number on the
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: first five innings. Probably you're gonna have to go under
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: three and a half at best. That's the way it
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: goes in the playoffs. Man, these games you look at
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: it and almost every one of them looks like you
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: kind of want to go under, except I recommended against
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: it in San Diego and Chicago. All of the other
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: ones I think do look like under games. But a
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: little bit of a concern with such low totals here
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati and the Dodgers. To finish this off, Dodgers have
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: a really good offense, one of the best offenses in baseball,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: the best home offense in baseball. They play well, they
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: hit really well at home. They didn't do enough to
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: get one of the buys. But the Dodgers, I actually
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna undervalue them a little bit.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: You saw my bracket special.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: I have the Dodgers making the World Series again here,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: which I think is a definite possibility.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Their starting rotation is good right now.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: They got a couple of their best pitchers back, one
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: of them pitching tonight, and that also means those pitchers
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: are fresh because they didn't pitch that much this season.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: So Dodgers very well might have the best starting pitching
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: rotation here in the playoffs. Cincinnati's I've talked about is
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: fairly good. Though, and deep Cincinnati doesn't have quite as
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: good of an offense so that they can hit a
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: little bit. Both of these bullpens are actually somewhat concerning.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I think Cincinnati's is a little bit worse than the
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Dodgers though, but something to keep in mind. The bullpens
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: are maybe a little bit of an issue here. Hunter
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Green is pitching for Cincinnati, it makes sense. They got
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: to do it at some point. He's got to get
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: get in the mix here.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: Green.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be a guy that doesn't have a whole
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: lot of experience though pitching in a massive pressure pressure
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: situation like this. But he's also really really good, so
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: he might be able to do this.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's very much a fastball pitcher though, So
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: he just comes in and he tries to let you up.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: He's gonna try to just blow fastballs by you. And
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: when guys make contact with him, they are able to
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: hit it fairly hard, but a lot of.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Times they don't. More often than not they don't, and
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: he whiffs a lot of guys. He's good man.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Two point seven to six ERA point nine to four
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: whip on the season. Hopefully the pressure doesn't cause him
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: to vomit on the mound. He is significantly worse on
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the road though, four point eight to one road ERA,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: so surprisingly, he was actually a lot better at home
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: in Cincinnati, even though it's a hitter friendly ballpark there.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Finished the season quite well with a two point six
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: four ERA in the last month this month thirty eight
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: to ten strike a walk ratio solid stuff. Man did
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: pitch against the Dodgers in this stadium back on August
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth, and he wasn't that good in that outing.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: He gave up three on runs and five innings in
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: that one. Six hits, two walks, three strikeouts, So he's
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: not totally dominant against the Dodgers, even though he is
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: really good in most cases. But he might not do
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: that well against the Dodgers. Against the Dodgers' lifetime ninety
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: eight at bats, he does have a really good twenty
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: six to five strike a walk ratio against them, but
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: they have a two seventy six average and eight hundred
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: oh ps. I mean, that's not awful, but the Dodgers
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: are able to hit him and make him human, and
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: he's not as good on the road too, So I
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: do worry about Green a bit in this game, he's
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: going up against Blake Snell, who's he is an experienced pitcher.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: He's been around for a long time now. Man, He's
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: used to the deal. He's one of those Dodgers pitchers.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Him and Glas though they're both hurt for a long
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: time this season, which means that they're fresh because neither
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: of them has thrown too many innings. But they also
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: were able to finish the season with the Dodgers in
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: the rotation get back.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: Into their rhythm.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Man, So I think they're both gonna be good coming
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs. Here, Snell wound up with a two
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: point three to five ERA one point twenty six whip
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the tails of his you know, career demise or whatever.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: I think we're very much overstated. I mean, he's not
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: that old. He's thirty two. His numbers are still good,
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: he's still pitching well.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: He was really good at home one point one seven
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: e RA thirty four to eight strike at walk Ratio.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: In the final month here two point two five ERA
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: did face Philadelphia and Arizona to finish it off, and
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: he gave up only one on run across his last
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: three starts, with two double digit strikeout counts.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: There.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thirty four to eight strike a walk ratio in
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: the last month, last couple of months, he's been pitching
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: really well.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Since he basically since he came back from injury, he's
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: been right on point. He's allowed more than three on
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: runs only one time, which was kind of a weird
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: road start against Pittsburgh whatever, But other than that, he's
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: been dominant pretty much. He's had four shutouts over that
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: stretch too. Against the Cincinnati Reds. I looked at these
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: numbers earlier, but I always kind of forget he's actually
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: pretty much completely dominated them. In forty eight at bats,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: twelve strikeouts, five walks, one oh four batting average three
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: to fourteen ops allowed. He's, I mean, this is what
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Snell does. He kind of walks too many guys, but
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: he also is like just pretty much completely unhittable. So
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in against the Dodgers here, but the
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: money line did go way up on them for minus
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: one seventy two minus one ninety five, although that might
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: have been because we didn't know who the starting pitchers
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: are gonna be yet. When the Dodgers announced it was
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: gonna be Snell, because it looked like they might be
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: going with one of their lesser starters and bumping Snell
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: back to like third or fourth, but it's gonna be him,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: so I think when they announce, it would be him.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: I think that did move the line a little bit
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: in the favor of the Dodgers, because I don't think
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: it was actual money in the market because we see
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent of tickets, only eighty three percent of
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Dodgers, so the money is kind
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: of fading them. But based on those matchup number numbers
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: that I just showed you, I think you could really
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: only look.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: To the Dodgers in this game.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: To be honest, Yeah, you'd have to lay a run
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: line with them, and at least you do at least
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: get the Dodgers. You know, if you do the run line,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: you at least get the fact that the Dodgers can
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: hit at home. Maybe the better way to actually look
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: at this would be to go Dodgers over their team total. Actually,
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: but you're still doing with the hunter Green, so he
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: might be able to kind of keep that offense and
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: check a little bit. So I do I guess I
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: worry about that too. Maybe actually scratch all that, maybe
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: the best way to do this is I think about
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: this in my head, maybe Cincinnati under their team total
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: is the best way to look at this, although then
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: you have to worry about the Dodgers bulp and you
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: can see why I have. I had a hard time
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: handicapping these games, man, Like, I don't know what I
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: would even want to do in these games, to be honest,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I almost think that my favorite way to go here
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: is is Padres Cubs over the total. But looking at
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: that game, the other thing I was gonna say about
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: that game is in that game, the total also being
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: that low also probably is hitting into account the weather
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: and it either means that the wind is blowing in
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: in Chicago there, or it means that there's like kind
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: of like no wind, or aside to side win with
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: this pitching matchup, it might mean there's basically no wind,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: because if the wind was blowing out, I think.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: They'd have to increase the total just a little bit
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: at least in that game. But those are my thoughts
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: on it.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: I don't have any plays today, man, so I know
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I apologize for that two days in a row, lights,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna get back to the place football is
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: gonna be back, we'll see what we want to do
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: with the rest of baseball and NBA and w NBA playoffs.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Curtis, what's up man, Thanks for hanging out. Oh, that's
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. I forgot to do my plugs yesterday.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: But you know the drill.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Learn a tone on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: like subscribe to the channel here, better off Dead on YouTube.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: Everything helps me out, man.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: Give me a good review on iTunes and Spotify or
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Apple podcasts I guess and Spotify.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: That all helps me out as well.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Covered in yuke my yuke channel on YouTube, so you
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: can check that out as well. And Patreon dot com
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: slash learn to toad you can help me, help support
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: me over there too, and there's some bonus uke content there.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for now. Man, we'll be back
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: again tomorrow. Gonna be another short video light slate here.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: I think maybe next baseball season I shouldn't handicap literally
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: every single baseball game on the show. I mean, that
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: just takes so much time. I've never done that before.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it with NBA NHL. So usually,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: like if you've watched my show, what I'm gonna do is.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out my plays that I have for
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: NBA NHL. I'm gonna talk about the other games that
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: kind of interested me that I kind of had some
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: opinions on stronger opinions, but not every single game unless
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: somebody calls out a game they want me to talk about.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: So it's probably how I'm gonna do things moving forward here.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should have some Patreon betting content too. I
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, We'll see, but that's gonna do it
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: for now. And maybe I should actually maybe I should
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: be Boston owed, try to get more like views on Instagram.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Maybe repost like post those videos on Twitter too. We'll see, man.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Once I have another play, which is maybe not until Thursday,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: We'll have to see what happens.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: I know tomorrow we're gonna have baseball games as well,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: but we might be able to find some more value
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: in game two with some maybe zig zag scenarios setting up.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: We'll see, but peace out for now, guys,