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Defiance ETFs CIO: Great Day to Buy the Dip · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Markets selling off today,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: A lot of filters are asking themselves this morning. Is
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  Speaker 1: this a you know, a healthy pullback and otherwise upward
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  Speaker 1: biased market or is this something different? Let's check in
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  Speaker 1: with Sylvia Jablonsky, chief investment officer for Defiance et S. So, Sylvia,
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  Speaker 1: when you see action like this today, what do you
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: make of it? We haven't seen it too often, these
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  Speaker 1: types of pullbacks in this recent bull market. What do
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: you make of it? Good morning? UM. You know, I
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  Speaker 1: think today is partially a result of what we're hearing
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: in China. You know, Hong Kong aquity saw a big
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  Speaker 1: sell off during the Asia trading session. UM. Europe followed
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: to you have the ever Grand group issue that I
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: think bought some some fear and volatility to the market.
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  Speaker 1: But you know, there are a couple of other things
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  Speaker 1: going on. You still have COVID cases, You still have
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: you know, the idea that September is the worst track
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: record for for any month historically, and the second half
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: of it tends to be, you know, worse than the
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  Speaker 1: first and certainly the worst training period of the year.
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  Speaker 1: And then there's the concern about d C and and
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  Speaker 1: raising the depth ceiling and you know, sort of corporate
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  Speaker 1: tax fears and things like that. So, you know, long
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  Speaker 1: stories short, I think that there are a lot of
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  Speaker 1: reasons why there's solatility in the market. But you know,
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  Speaker 1: I remain very bullish on the market in the year.
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  Speaker 1: The fundamentals are good. We're in economic recovery, and I
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  Speaker 1: think days like today, you know, if you can sort
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  Speaker 1: of grin and bear it, I think it's a great
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  Speaker 1: day to buy on the dips, particularly in the in
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: the top quality name. So, um, you know, I don't
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  Speaker 1: think that this is the beginning of sort of the end.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, the biggest pullback we've seen in the last
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  Speaker 1: couple of years is is, you know, four percent. The
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: average pullback of the SMP by hundred is about fourteen
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  Speaker 1: fift over time, so it's really not that bad. It's
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit of altility in the market for various reasons.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Are you still bullish when you look at um the
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  Speaker 1: progress or lack thereof on the infrastructure bill? I mean,
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  Speaker 1: the idea that fiscal spending from this government has added three,
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  Speaker 1: four or five six percentage points per quarter for the
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  Speaker 1: last you know, four five quarters, and that now that
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  Speaker 1: fiscal um kind of punch bowl maybe empty. Isn't that
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  Speaker 1: a worry for markets? You know? I think just a
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  Speaker 1: lot a lot of the corporations within the in the
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  Speaker 1: market that are essentially leading the market, UM, are are
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  Speaker 1: just just cash heavy. You know, they have incredibly strong
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  Speaker 1: balance sheets. Um I think that you know, they're they're
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  Speaker 1: sort of well positioned. So even if that spending isn't
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  Speaker 1: coming into the market to the level was before, I
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  Speaker 1: do expect them to have you know, perhaps they won't
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  Speaker 1: have sixty year over year revenue growth, but I still
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  Speaker 1: expect them to be in the green for for the
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  Speaker 1: coming years. And you know, rates remain very low. I
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: think that even if we get to a point where
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  Speaker 1: we start getting announcements about tapering, don't forget that rates
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  Speaker 1: remain very low. So if you have this combination of
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  Speaker 1: strong balance sheets and low rates and you know, continue
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  Speaker 1: demand strong consumer I mean, the retail numbers were phenomenal there,
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  Speaker 1: their UM temper cent higher than than the pre COVID periods.
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  Speaker 1: We've got this consumer spending out there. I think it's
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  Speaker 1: still a fairly rosy picture. You know. What could set
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  Speaker 1: it back though, I think will be uh any kind
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  Speaker 1: of you know, corporate taxation that that is that is
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  Speaker 1: really negative towards the bottom line. UM. I think, you know,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: depending on what long term and short term type of
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  Speaker 1: gain taxes look like for individuals, that might impact the market.
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  Speaker 1: But overall, I expect to see at the market end
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  Speaker 1: up and continue to move in a robust way. So
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  Speaker 1: so you were suggesting, you know, and sell offs like
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing this morning, to buy on that weakness. What
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  Speaker 1: sectors would you be buying here on this type of weakness? Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: so you know, so that this morning I looked at UM.
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  Speaker 1: I looked at the five five G trade, which which
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  Speaker 1: I love. You know, I think five g's the future.
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  Speaker 1: You've got these you have these companies which are spanned
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  Speaker 1: from telecom um to radio technology to semiconductors. So UM,
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  Speaker 1: you have the five G E T s, you have
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  Speaker 1: everything from like the naivideo's UM, the A m d s,
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  Speaker 1: the stocks like Nokia, UM, you know, an American tower.
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  Speaker 1: I think that five gs the future, augmented reality, AI,
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  Speaker 1: dated processing, all of all of this relies on five G.
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  Speaker 1: I also think that it's a good time to look
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  Speaker 1: at crypto. I think that you know, it's it's suspiciously
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  Speaker 1: um getting sort of a hammer today and in regards
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  Speaker 1: to what we saw coming out of China. And you know,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I'm very bullish on the long term price of bitcoin
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  Speaker 1: and the ethereum. UM. You know, I think n f
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  Speaker 1: t s are going to propel all of this forward too.
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  Speaker 1: So I think particularly for investors that have some risk
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  Speaker 1: tolerance and they're excited about the crypto space. You know,
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  Speaker 1: when you see these pullbacks, UM, they're they're certainly good
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  Speaker 1: up change to get in if you haven't had the
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: opportunity to do so. UM. What do you think about
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  Speaker 1: the housing market right now? Does that worry you, Sylvia?
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  Speaker 1: Because UM, it's not just the case in the US
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  Speaker 1: that prices have soared, I mean thirty percent. There's a
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  Speaker 1: story on the Bloomberg today talking about, UM, the housing
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  Speaker 1: prices in the US up thirty percent since the mid
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  Speaker 1: two thousands, when you know, Michael Bury was sitting in
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  Speaker 1: front of his computer listening to Metallica placing short bets
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  Speaker 1: on um the market. Should we be worried that this
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  Speaker 1: housing market has gone too far, too fast in New York, London, Paris, Berlin.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's you know, I think it's something that
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  Speaker 1: we should sort of sit back and think on in
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  Speaker 1: terms of, like, if you're a buyer in the market
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  Speaker 1: now looking to buy a home, I mean, chances are
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  Speaker 1: that you're going to overpay for it. You've seen you know,
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  Speaker 1: people all over the world sort of sitting on our
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  Speaker 1: hands in terms of buying a home, you know. And
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  Speaker 1: I think it depends on where right, Like I mean
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  Speaker 1: I live in New York City. I actually think you
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  Speaker 1: do have deals in the city, but you definitely don't
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  Speaker 1: have guilt in like Westchester when people are trying to flee,
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  Speaker 1: So it's sit on your hand and wait until it
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  Speaker 1: falls a little bit. I do think they're a little
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  Speaker 1: bit inflated. Hey, Sylvia, thanks so much for joining us.
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  Speaker 1: Really appreciate it. Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer for Defiance
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  Speaker 1: E t F. She's out with the call this morning.
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  Speaker 1: By this dip Jose Herrera. He is one of the
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  Speaker 1: founders and the CEO of Horatio, which is a company
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  Speaker 1: that helps um improve the customer experience of startups and
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  Speaker 1: small businesses which maybe had been having problems. And it's
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  Speaker 1: interesting especially now, I think because of not the supply
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: chain shortage so much as the labor shortage and the
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  Speaker 1: changes that we've seen during the pandemic. Jose, UM, talk
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  Speaker 1: to us first about your business and how it's developed
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  Speaker 1: throughout throughout this this difficult period. Thank you for helping
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: me today and it's a pleasure to talk to you
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  Speaker 1: both today. UM. Yeah. So, Horrisio is a company that
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  Speaker 1: works with fast growing e commerce brands to enhance their
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  Speaker 1: customer experience and provide a dedicated team of associates that
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  Speaker 1: are proud to represent their brand values and voice, and
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  Speaker 1: ultimately mitigate any customer frustrations that may arise as part
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: of the shopping process. And so, as you mentioned, we
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  Speaker 1: are having significant issues with global ports shutting down across
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  Speaker 1: the world, and now with the holiday season, we are
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  Speaker 1: also expecting a lot of issues when it comes to
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: significant shipping delays from FedEx and other delivery partners, and
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  Speaker 1: so We are working with all these fast growing e
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  Speaker 1: commerce brands to prepare themselves for the busy holiday period
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  Speaker 1: that's coming in a couple of weeks. So Jose does
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  Speaker 1: the customer experience. It's become more and more automated. It's
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  Speaker 1: almost impossible to reach a human these days, and I
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  Speaker 1: gotta think that results and if I'm just representative of
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  Speaker 1: the general consumer tremendous frustration. What are some of the
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  Speaker 1: solutions you guys are thinking about. Yeah, and I think
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  Speaker 1: that's exactly the reason why Horatio exists. We are the
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  Speaker 1: perfect balance between leveraging AI and also the human touch.
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  Speaker 1: So we provide dedicated teams and of humans that are
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  Speaker 1: proud to represent these companies brand values and voice. So
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  Speaker 1: we provide first time personalized omni channel customer support so
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  Speaker 1: that the customers can reach out through whatever channel they want,
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  Speaker 1: whether it's chat, email, SMS, which nowadays more more than
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  Speaker 1: seventy percent of consumers want to ask questions through text,
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  Speaker 1: and so we allow these uh consumers to reach out
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  Speaker 1: through the preferred method of their choice, but leveraging both
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  Speaker 1: AI and the human touch to provide an amazing customer experience.
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  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if it's because I'm old,
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  Speaker 1: but I'm guessing Paul is going to agree with me.
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  Speaker 1: I want to call a place and talk to humans
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  Speaker 1: straight away. I don't want to be uh doing some
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  Speaker 1: chat bought action where the thing has no idea what
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  Speaker 1: I need or can't meet my demands. I don't want
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  Speaker 1: to be sending an email where I know I'm not
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  Speaker 1: going to get a response back. Um, but isn't it
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  Speaker 1: difficult to get a call center up and running? I mean,
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  Speaker 1: how do you get some one who knows about the
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  Speaker 1: product and um, you know, can speak not just English
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  Speaker 1: but whatever language customers are calling in, and and can
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  Speaker 1: and can deal with the customer intelligently. Definitely, it's extremely
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  Speaker 1: important to two number one as a brand be very
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  Speaker 1: proactive with your customers so that you mitigate the risk
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  Speaker 1: of of of needing a huge call center operation. And
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  Speaker 1: that's why we leverage the other channels that I mentioned
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: which are easier to manage in scale, like SMS, social
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  Speaker 1: media emails. So you have to anticipate any challenges that
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  Speaker 1: your consumers may expect from you, and then also have,
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  Speaker 1: like you mentioned, availability through phone if needed. UM. So
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  Speaker 1: with a lot of the brands that we work with
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: we provide a concierge level approach to phone, so if
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: we are not able to fix your issue over the
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  Speaker 1: other channels, we allow you to schedule a call for
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: fifteen minutes so that you know that we are going
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: to be calling you at a specific time so you
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  Speaker 1: don't have to wait in line. Particularly now day when
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  Speaker 1: we are seeing unprecedented num revers of customer inquiries and
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  Speaker 1: now with the holiday period coming, what's the what's the
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: size of your customer base? I mean, how quickly could
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: you scale up? Would it be possible for you to help?
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: For example, the airlines, your lens is A is A
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: is a huge challenge nowadays. I think that you know,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: because of the way that they are structured, it will
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: take months for them to to to really fix those issues.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: And I think that um, you know, we are better
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: set up for e commerce direct to consumer brands. I
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: think that airlines are have to fix a lot of
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: issues and incorporate more AI and analytics to fix their
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: underlying historical issues that they faced in the past. All right,
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  Speaker 1: so Jose, just in thirty seconds, how has the pandemic
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: kind of changed your business and customer service in general?
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  Speaker 1: It has definitely accelerated e commerce. UH five years right,
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  Speaker 1: I think that, UM, the pandemic really shifted. I think
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: that the number was some something along the lines of
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: sales happen online. And I think that before COVID we
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: were at a ten percent of silver happening online or
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: even less. And so it has definitely accelerated, UH, the
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  Speaker 1: need for customer support across all organizations. And I think
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  Speaker 1: that we are not going to see these stopping anytime soon.
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  Speaker 1: And I think that you know now that the holidays
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: are coming soon, we are expecting a few percent uptick
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: in customer service inquiries. More people are going to need
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to use your service. As Jose, thanks so much for
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: joining us, Jose Herrera. They're one of the founders and
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the CEO of Horatio, a company that helps e commerce
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: businesses tech businesses tailor their customer experience. And we're going
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: into a difficult period. They're gonna need it. The talk
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: has certainly escalated as it relates to taper, UH, the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: bond purchases funder Federal Reserve, maybe even raising some rates
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: some point in the foreseeable future. Yet I look at
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the ten year it stuck at one point three kind
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: of words, been for a long time. Let's check in
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: with one of the pros and the fixed income markets
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: to get a sense of what's going on. R J. Gallo,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Senior portfolio management head of the municipal bondup but federated Hermes.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: R J. The bond markets just like saying, ho hum,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: so what I mean, how concerned are you about that?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: You know, tapering these FED purchases and then ultimately raising rates. Well,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: good morning, Um, the taper discussion has gone on for
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: so long it's it's it's almost baked in, right, and
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: I think the set has been bailed out. The set
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: was very forward looking, and getting taper out there months
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: in advance world is different than when it just sort
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: of came up. Um, So that's you know, you got
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: to congratulate the set on that part. Introducing the market
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: to it over and over and over helps. But I
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: think the FA's also being helped by the simple fact
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: that on the fiscal policy side, the amount of debt
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: issuance in coming months is itself going to taper. So
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: although the demand will go down from the FED, that
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: will be partly offset by by lesser issuance from the U. S.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Treasury but you've also got some of the fiscal follies
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: going on in Washington. We don't have a budget for
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: next year. The death ceiling thing looms over our heads.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Everyone always thinks the death ceiling shouldn't matter. But how
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: often does the s a seated American president challenge the
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: validity of an election they lost. You know, weird things
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: can happen, And I think when weird things happen in Washington,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: and we are now facing another event risk in Washington,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: that might bring about some caution in the markets. Um,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: that might be another reason why bond yields really aren't
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: doing much. Not to mention the Chinese news that we're
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: all talking about this morning, well, and we just also
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: had a great conversation with Rich Miller about the fiscal cliff. Um,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: this is an economy that's been juiced by trillions and
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: trillions of dollars of fiscal spending that looks like it
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: may come to an end. How do you how do
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: you input that into your into your calculations? Um? I
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: noticed that that your federator, excuse me, Bloomberg this morning
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: ran an article about this very point and looked at
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the Hutchins Center, which is a group out of the
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Broken's Institution which tries to look at the cumulative impact
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: of government spending in tax decisions, not just the GDP impact.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: You know, in GDP accounting, if the government cuts a
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: check to you or me that doesn't directly add to GDP,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: it only has the GDP when we spend it. Right,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: So the GDP accounting for government spending will often under
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: state fiscal policies influence and to your point, at the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: amount of influence has been massive. Think of the p
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: p P loans which were really grants. Think of all
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the checks cut to household trillions of dollars. Right, So,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: clearly the government can't keep that spending pace up. It
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: has to diminish on a sequential basis, and it already
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: is expected to do so. The Hutchings Center does a
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: great job of trying to quantify the the you know,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: the impact on GDP of those changes, and they're clearly
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: below the line there in the red incoming quarters, including
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: the one we're in. So you have to wonder, can
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: the Biden program in Washington, namely the three and half
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: trillion dollar reconciation Reconciliation Bill as well as the Infrastructure
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: bill which is so far proceeding on a bipartisan basis.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: How much will it offset that headwind. It's not going
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to give us another CARES Act. Those bills are are
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: are both of them are over ten years. You know,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the Cares Act and the American Rescue Plan were over
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: a couple of quarters. So we are facing a fiscal
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: policy headwind no matter how you cut it. The question
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: is the degree in terms of how the Biden Plan
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: gets enacted or trimmed further in the coming months. So
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: r J your head of the Municial bond group at Federated,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: how are you guys positioning your municipal bond portfolios? Um,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: we believe well, First of all, munities have had a
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: very very strong year. We've talked about that in the past. Um,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: the simple fact that taxes were expected to rise, and
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: now we have real proposals out of Washington, their soldier
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: proposals that would raise marginal rates for for individuals, especially
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: high income individuals. Also higher capital gains rates and higher
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: corporate tax rates. Um. You know that's finally manifesting in
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the discussions in Washington. Munis I think expected that, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: that's why muni ratios are all very low, historically low
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the ratio of triple ammuni yield to a triple a
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: UH to a treasury yield. These days, if you look
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: at the Bloomberg series, you know, on the tenure part
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: of the curves around, that's unusually low, but that's pricing
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: in those tax increases. UM. We've been pretty positive on
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: munies all year, to include within munies taking more credit risks,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: so high yield munies have done extremely well. We've caught
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: a good bit of that in all of our different
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: strategies here at the company, at Federated hermes Um. At
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: this point, spreads are tight, like they are everywhere. There's
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: not a lot of cheap assets left in munis or
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: anywhere else for that matter, reflecting the FEDS highly accommodated
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: monetary policy. So we're getting a little bit more cautious,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: not in the sense that we're heading for some sort
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: of washout munities, but we think the prospects of incremental
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: out performance from here aren't so great. Tight ratios, tight spreads,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: you know, at this point you're sort of clipping coupon
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: and trying to make up some good idiots and cratic
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: calls on security selection to eke out performance. Are J
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: always great to talk to. You really appreciate you joining
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: us today as well. So, um, I mean it's interesting
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: what we see in markets markets today, but you don't.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I mean today is I think a little bit special
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: and we'll see tomorrow if it if it continues on.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean you had to, you know, sell off,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: but kind of a little bit of studying here here
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: in the mid day. Yes. And also I mean, as
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: I talked about the top, we sometimes exaggerate, exaggerate the
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: you know, the size of it's not even a two
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: percent drop. Ye. So at the worst point. R J.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Gallo as senior portfolio manager and head of the Muni
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Bond Group at Federated Hermes, they've got six forty six
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: billion dollars and assets under management, about a hundred and
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: change in equities under Management's are great to get his take,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Okay, Well, we've certainly heard about income inequality,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: wealth inequality. How about housing inequality? The big take story
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: today entitled Storing Housing inequality is now a global political
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: fault line. The dream of owning a home is increasingly
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: out of reach. Democratic and are authoritarian governments alike are
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: struggling with the consequences with the story. Here today is
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Alan Crawford, senior editor for International Government in Bloomberg News,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: running us on the phone from Burglin. That's where all
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: the smart, cool kids are. I guess Alan, thanks so
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: much for joining us here talk to us about housing inequality.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: What's really driving it out there? Well, I think it's
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: probably no surprise to to listeners to assure that house
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: prices are are hitting fresh records worldwide and as a
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: result of the pandemic. And that's that's due to issues
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: like all to low interest rates, the fact that very
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: few homes are actually being built and put on the market.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: But what is what is new is that this is
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: happening globally and it we're starting to see the political
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: impact of this because it's not just about the pure numbers.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: It's also a generational issue because statistically we know that
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Baby boomers are far more likely to own their own
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: home than Millennials and Generation Z, so these that latter
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: cohort of society risks getting completely left behind. Here. What
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: kind of problems does this mean? We've all seen staring
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: home prices and it's I have to say, Uh, sometimes
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: the numbers are pretty shocking increased in the US since
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the mid two thousands, which you know, uh and and
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: then you were telling me this morning about Boise, Idaho
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: saw an increase of in the first quarter of this
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: year alone. What does this mean in for politicians? Alan,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: What does this mean for elections around the world? What
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: does this mean for governments? Well, in the US, it
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: means that some of the traditional policies that are that
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: are you traditionally deployed to try and expand affordable homes,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: the risk backfiring, the risk just putting more more petrol
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: gasoline on the fire of the housing market. And but
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: so that that just exacerbates the existing gulf. But what
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: we're seeing is that there's also a parallel crisis in
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: terms of the rental market in many cities, not everywhere,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: but in many cities. And we see that here in Berlin.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: The city government is under pressure and in fact, just
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: last week it bought fifteen thousand departments to try and
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: the swage this public anger over the rent price increases.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: A couple of months ago, we saw the collapse of
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: the Swedies government for a variety of reasons, but at
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: its heart were proposed changes to two rental caps which
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: were completely out of favor with the coalition parties, and
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: the government collapse. So the point is there's no uniform
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: political impact here, but it's it's really stoking uncertainty and
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: in some cases instability. I'm kind of wondering what what's
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: kind of the source of this housing issue on a
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: global scale. It's it seems to me a supply and demand.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know what's changed here. Is there a
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: sudden surgeon people looking for residences or is there just
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: a supply has come out of the market. What's happened there?
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: There are different it depends on the market. But for
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: what the single unifying factor is the pandemic And and
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: and amid that, as I said, you've got these really
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: low interest rates which are fueling purchases, and you've got
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: this idea that the families are shifting their priorities or
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: have been over the past eighteen months in terms of spending,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: with fewer holidays, they're putting more money into really state
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: and fewer homes being built. That these factors all seem
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: to be coming together at once and and geographically spread
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: around the developed world, and that that's really what's new Well,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: you've got a lot more investment as well, right in housing,
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: as people see the prices go up and there's so
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: much um cash floating around the system. Um, they put
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: that money into housing, and that exacerbates the problem, whereas
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: we haven't been building enough new housing at least I
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: know that's the case in the US, and I know
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: that's the case here in Berlin as well. Um to
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: keep up with with that demand. I wonder what the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: answer is alan um. And I know that this has
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: historically been a real problem to deal with rising home prices,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: rising apartment rents. You haven't had, um, you haven't had
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: any sort of utopian um successes where a government stiggers
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: out a way to keep prices at bay and doesn't
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: you know, screw up the whole market, Not as far
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: as I'm aware, But there are interesting examples playing out
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: right now in Canada, where there's of course an election
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: today that Justin Trudeau called his snap election, thinking that
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: he would fight this on his handling of the pandemic,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: which was broadly congrats. He was congratulated for that. Instead,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: he's fighting on issues of affordability and principally of housing,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: and he has proposed. His proposed solutions include a two
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: year ban on foreign buyers, but in fact, interestingly his
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: conservative opponent has the same policy and the the New
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party, the third party polling they are proposing something
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: like a twenty percent tax on foreign buyers. UM. That
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: really these kind of like issues that these Um what
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to say is that these political parties are
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: broadly sharing the the the idea that there is some
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: kind of crisis in housing, but they really differ over
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: the proposed solutions. And at the moment there are I
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: am not yet aware of any sustainable things. You know.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: One of the issues has been, at least in the States,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: they're just not building entry level housing stock. They're building
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the big, big Mick mansions and things like that. Is
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: that a u an issue We're seeing in other countries
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: as well? Alan it is. And there's an interesting little
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: example which didn't make it into the final article from England,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the South of England, which traditionally it's strongly conservative territory.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: This is the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Now,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: whatever you think of his government, the pro breaks it stands,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: it's popular. I however, there was a special election by
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: election in a district which had been hailed by his
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: party since nine two. I'm being lost to the opposition
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Alan Crawford with our Big Take story. This is Bloomberg.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: at Matt Miller Vy three and on ball Sweeney I'm
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.