Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Dividend Restrictions, New Tariffs (July 20, 2026)

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Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Dividend Restrictions, New Tariffs (July 20, 2026) · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is your weekly
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  Speaker 1: Washington Policy Pulse the Balance of Power Podcasts. I'm Joe Matthew.
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  Speaker 1: Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior policy analyst and friend of
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  Speaker 1: the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming
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  Speaker 1: catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent
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  Speaker 1: and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Intelligence.
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  Speaker 1: Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 3: I'm a senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence here in
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  Speaker 3: the Washington, DC Bureau. I want to say welcome to
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  Speaker 3: the Washington Policy Pulse. Thank you very much for joining,
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  Speaker 3: and also thank you for those of you who are
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  Speaker 3: listening to us via the Balance of Power podcast. We
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  Speaker 3: always appreciate you listening. Today's July twentieth. It is tenh
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  Speaker 3: two a m. Eastern time, and what we want to
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  Speaker 3: talk about is the House's last week in Washington before
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  Speaker 3: the August recess. This is the last week that the
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  Speaker 3: House and the Senate will be here together pretty much
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  Speaker 3: for the rest of the month of July, all of August,
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  Speaker 3: and for a little bit of September, and the House
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  Speaker 3: actually has quite a bit of things that it wants
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  Speaker 3: to do this week, and I would first want to
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  Speaker 3: start with the National Defense Authorization Act, also known as
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  Speaker 3: the NDAA. Now, even though the House is the one
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  Speaker 3: that's currently teed up to vote on the NDAA, I
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  Speaker 3: want to talk about the Senate side first. So the
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  Speaker 3: Senate has its own version of the NDA, and there
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  Speaker 3: is a section in here, this is section eight fifteen.
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  Speaker 3: The reason why I bring it up is because, largely speaking,
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  Speaker 3: this provision would ban any contractor with the Department of
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  Speaker 3: Defense from offering stock buybacks in or dividends.
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  Speaker 2: And the way that it reads, it's fairly broad.
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  Speaker 3: And this would actually probably encompass just about any company
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  Speaker 3: that's working with the Department of Defense, whether you're a
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  Speaker 3: bank that you're offering an ATM, or if you're offering
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  Speaker 3: food services or anything like that. Essentially it says any
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  Speaker 3: goods or services. That's a fairly broad provision. So something
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  Speaker 3: to put on your radar.
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  Speaker 1: Now.
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  Speaker 3: The reason why I'm bringing it up is because the
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  Speaker 3: House is voting on their NDA at this point, and
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  Speaker 3: then if it passes, we'll go to the Senate and
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  Speaker 3: the Senate's going to say thank you very much.
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  Speaker 2: They're going to throw it over the shoulder, and they're
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  Speaker 2: going to continue to work on the Senate version.
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  Speaker 3: Now, we have plenty of time to work through this provision,
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  Speaker 3: so there's nothing you really need to do in the
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  Speaker 3: way yet. I'm going to do a little bit of
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  Speaker 3: homework and come back on the terminal with a little
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  Speaker 3: bit more in depth piece of where the Senate is
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  Speaker 3: going to go. Senate's not expected to address this before
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  Speaker 3: they go on August recess, so I think this is
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  Speaker 3: more of a September issue. But as a reminder, September
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  Speaker 3: thirtieth is the date in which a lot of these
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  Speaker 3: bills have to be passed by, including a government funding
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  Speaker 3: bill or a continuing resolution that we keep the government open.
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  Speaker 3: Now you started to hear chatter about shutdowns. In fact,
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  Speaker 3: the Senate or so the House this week is one
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  Speaker 3: of their three things they're doing. Three major things they're
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  Speaker 3: doing is they're going to vote on a short continuing
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  Speaker 3: resolution that would keep the government foot of from September
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  Speaker 3: thirtieth through December one, so essentially kick the candonate after
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  Speaker 3: the midterm elections, get this into the lame duck cycle,
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  Speaker 3: and during the lame duck it's very unlikely you're going to.
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  Speaker 2: Have a shutdown. There is a shutdown threat out there now.
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  Speaker 3: I said last week that I didn't think there would
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  Speaker 3: be one, and it's look, I still don't think there's
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  Speaker 3: going to be a shutdown. I'm going to have my
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  Speaker 3: more in depth odds out on the terminal this week.
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  Speaker 3: But there is a threat out there because the last
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  Speaker 3: shutdown that happened the Democrats, I think largely can be
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  Speaker 3: argued the Democrats were the one that rejected the clean
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  Speaker 3: cr and decided to go into the shutdown. They didn't
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  Speaker 3: really pay much of a political price. And when you
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  Speaker 3: don't pay much of a political price for causing a shutdown,
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  Speaker 3: then the question has to be asked, are we going
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  Speaker 3: to have another shutdown?
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  Speaker 2: Again?
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  Speaker 3: Shutdowns right before the elections aren't really good business, really
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  Speaker 3: good political strategies. So again that's why I don't think
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  Speaker 3: we're gonna have one, but again, more in depth discussions.
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  Speaker 3: But the House should pass that one will then go
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  Speaker 3: to the Senate's not anticipated to look at it until September.
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  Speaker 3: And then we also have the budget resolution. Now this
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  Speaker 3: was this is reconciliation three point zero. Now this is
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  Speaker 3: as remember Reconciliation one point zero was the one big
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  Speaker 3: beautiful bill. Reconciliation two point zero was the package that
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  Speaker 3: passed earlier this year, and then Reconciliation three point zero.
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  Speaker 3: Is this another additional package which is going to be
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  Speaker 3: up to ninety five billion dollars.
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  Speaker 2: This is what the instruction has. This is up to
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  Speaker 2: ninety five billion dollars.
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  Speaker 3: Sixty billion of it would be up for Department Defence
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  Speaker 3: tied to the conflict with Iran. Surger're looking at this
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  Speaker 3: from an investing standpoint. Look for those companies like RTX
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  Speaker 3: and North of Grumman that are actually exposed to anti
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  Speaker 3: missile technology, additional drone technology, you know, think of the
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  Speaker 3: munition side of defense. It would have eleven billion dollars
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  Speaker 3: worth for farmers. This would also have ten billion dollars
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  Speaker 3: in savings or ten billion dollars in grants tied to
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  Speaker 3: the Save America Act. Now save a ninety five billion
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  Speaker 3: dollar package.
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  Speaker 2: It's going to come.
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  Speaker 3: Up for a vote this week. Now, this is the
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  Speaker 3: first of many votes. So this is not a passing
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  Speaker 3: vote because what happens here is you first have to
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  Speaker 3: unlock the instructions, which is what we're going through right now,
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  Speaker 3: and then you can write the legislation. So the instructions
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  Speaker 3: and sexually say okay, Congress, we are going to allow you,
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  Speaker 3: mainly Republicans on the committee side here, We're going to
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  Speaker 3: allow you House Republicans to then write legislation authorizing up
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  Speaker 3: to ninety five billion dollars and expenditures. Now, the concern
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  Speaker 3: here from the Republican side is this is that a
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  Speaker 3: it forces a vote on Iran. The Iran conflict not
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  Speaker 3: very popular with Americans at the moment, especially write in
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  Speaker 3: advance of midterm election. Also, there's no offsets in here. Normally,
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  Speaker 3: when you have a budget reconciliation bill, if you spend
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  Speaker 3: one hundred billion dollars, you've got to cut one hundred
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  Speaker 3: billion dollars or have economic growth measures, but you have
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  Speaker 3: to have offsets. This bill doesn't include offsets. So if
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  Speaker 3: I'm a fiscal hawk Republican, I don't like this because
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  Speaker 3: you're just adding straight to the deficit here.
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  Speaker 2: So that's another issue.
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  Speaker 3: The third issue is is that the Save America Act
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  Speaker 3: is not in this as President Trump desires it to be. Now,
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  Speaker 3: remember the Save America Act, this is the one that
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  Speaker 3: has to do with identification for voting, etc. The reason
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  Speaker 3: why it's not included here is because a the Senate
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  Speaker 3: will most likely strip it out anyway. Senator Murkowski came
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  Speaker 3: within an op ed over the weekend how she's not
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  Speaker 3: going to vote for this ever, And secondly, it's not
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  Speaker 3: going to fly the Senate parliamentarian. As a reminder, when
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  Speaker 3: you get into reconciliation bill, everything you do has to
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  Speaker 3: go to the Centate parliamentarian, and the Cenate Parliamentarian has
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  Speaker 3: to say does this actually meet the spirit of what's
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  Speaker 3: called the bird rule, aka does this have a vedgetary impact?
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  Speaker 3: And if you're putting new new restrictions or new requirements
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  Speaker 3: on voting, the Southern Parliamentarian most likely is going to
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  Speaker 3: come back and say, now you can't do it now.
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  Speaker 3: For what it's worth, some of the Republicans out there
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  Speaker 3: say that this could fly with the Senate parliamentarian. Republicans
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  Speaker 3: can always say, look, we're just going to get rid
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  Speaker 3: of the Cenate parliamentarian and get a new center parliamentarian,
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  Speaker 3: but you need fifty votes for that. And Senator Majority
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  Speaker 3: Majority leader Senator John Thune has not made any insuation
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  Speaker 3: that he has any interest in replacing this from parliamentarian
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  Speaker 3: because if you do so, you're essentially saying, look, I'm
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  Speaker 3: gonna essentially just get rid of the filibuster.
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  Speaker 2: For what it's worth.
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  Speaker 3: The last time the Centate parliamentarian, I don't know why
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  Speaker 3: I can't speak today. The last time the Senate parliamentarian
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  Speaker 3: got was fired was actually under Senator or former Senator
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  Speaker 3: Trent Locke back in two thousand and one. That was
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  Speaker 3: a different type of situation, so it wasn't really exactly
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  Speaker 3: the same apples to apples. But because of all these
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  Speaker 3: reasons I laid out, plus the fact that has no
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  Speaker 3: tax cuts, I mean, senator, you know, the Chairman of
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  Speaker 3: the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith, has already said, look,
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  Speaker 3: if you're going to play in this, I want to
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  Speaker 3: be in here in terms of tax but he wasn't
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  Speaker 3: giving any instructions to do so. All that reasons is
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  Speaker 3: why I put on the terminal last week. I think
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  Speaker 3: it's thirty percent chance of that this package actually goes through. Now,
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  Speaker 3: if it does go through, it's going to be very small,
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  Speaker 3: very curtailed.
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  Speaker 2: It will go through in.
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  Speaker 3: September, so you don't really have to worry about this
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  Speaker 3: right now from a operations or July point of view,
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  Speaker 3: If the House passes its vote this week, and I don't,
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  Speaker 3: I think there's a chance to get pass. So if
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  Speaker 3: the House passes his votes this week, all it does
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  Speaker 3: is it allows them to write legislation and then they'll
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  Speaker 3: come back in September and they'll try and get it
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  Speaker 3: done then. So that is what's going on with Budget
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  Speaker 3: reconciliation three point zero really a couple of other things.
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  Speaker 3: Last thing to keep in mind really is tariffs. So
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  Speaker 3: the deadline for Section one twenty two tariffs. If you remember,
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  Speaker 3: President Trump lost it with the ie BA case and
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  Speaker 3: as a result, he threw down ten percent tariffs on
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  Speaker 3: almost everybody, and they called them Section one twenty two
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  Speaker 3: tariffs that only had one hundred and fifty day window.
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  Speaker 3: That window ends Thursday night at midnight Eastern. So anticipate
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  Speaker 3: the US Trade Representative later this week announcing essentially one
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  Speaker 3: of two things. One the more likely scenario is he's
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  Speaker 3: going to say, Okay, we've conducted all these Section three
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  Speaker 3: oh one investigation into forced labor, so now we're going
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  Speaker 3: to take these one twenty two tariffs and we're going
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  Speaker 3: to transfer them to a Section three oh one tariff. Now,
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  Speaker 3: will it remain at the ten percent that we're currently at.
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  Speaker 3: Probably it will either be ten maybe twelve point five percent,
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  Speaker 3: But I don't think you're going to see anything going
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  Speaker 3: back to like twenty five percent or forty percent or
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  Speaker 3: President Trump's fifty percent. So again keep in mind that's
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  Speaker 3: going to come later this week. Now, if they don't
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  Speaker 3: decide to announce section three oh one tariff, it could
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  Speaker 3: be positentially that they decide to re up another round
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  Speaker 3: of one twenty two tariffs. If that happens, Paul Holly
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  Speaker 3: from our litigation analyst, because most likely that's going to
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  Speaker 3: get hit with a lawsuit. And in fact, Holly put
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  Speaker 3: on a note later earlier this morning detailing all of
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  Speaker 3: this in greater detail. So if you do want a
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  Speaker 3: copy of that, send me or Alli are Holly an
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  Speaker 3: ib and we'll get a copy of that to you. Now,
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  Speaker 3: the last thing I want to say is is that
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  Speaker 3: as we get into the August recess, the regulatory side
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  Speaker 3: of business will continue. So even though Congress is largely
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  Speaker 3: going to disappear, and for what it's worth, the Senate
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  Speaker 3: is still here for two more weeks, they don't leave
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  Speaker 3: until early August. So the Senate we still have clarity.
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  Speaker 3: We still have other things that we have to track
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  Speaker 3: in the Senate, which is why we'll we will be
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  Speaker 3: having a call in two weeks. We will not have
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  Speaker 3: be having a call next week. I will be out
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  Speaker 3: of town, so we will not be doing that. But
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  Speaker 3: the Senate is still here for a couple more weeks.
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  Speaker 3: But the regulatory side continues, and so the one thing
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  Speaker 3: that we're looking for right now is the liquidity coverage
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  Speaker 3: ratio proposal from the Federal Reserve. We're also looking for
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  Speaker 3: additional movement on the CFTC's AMPR on prediction markets. The
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  Speaker 3: comment period for that is ending fairly quickly, and we
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  Speaker 3: have also seen a couple more comment periods and as well.
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  Speaker 3: So look for maybe on the regulatory maybe we'll get
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  Speaker 3: some nuggets over the August recess of.
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  Speaker 2: What's happening on the regulatory side.
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  Speaker 3: So I'm going to stop there. I'm going to say
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  Speaker 3: thank you very much for attending. We really appreciate and
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  Speaker 3: if we can ever be of service, please don't hesitate
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  Speaker 3: to reach out.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: Our thanks to Nathan Dean Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analysts
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  Speaker 1: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.
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  Speaker 1: For more from Bi, or to join this call live
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  Speaker 1: each week, you can email Nathan at ndan at bloomberg
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: dot net. That's n D e A n at Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: dot net and come back to the podcast later today
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  Speaker 1: for the latest edition of Balance of Power.