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The Favorites - NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday NFL wild Card Weekend episode. We're going to
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: break down the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. We
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: will discuss our exec decision and our Simon says and
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: do not fret. On Thursday, we will have the usual menu,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. The number of
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: games slims down, but our enthusiasm for the playoffs has
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: never been bigger. Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my bff, my cost my companion,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Mike combiede Er Professional Better, Simon Hunter l Simon.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chat. I feel bad I'll saying I hadn't ask
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: you about who the hell you want to be the
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: new Bear's new head coach.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Well, I've got so many good choices now between potentially
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy or Thomas Brown or Ben Johnson, who, if
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: he's smart, is going to run as fast as he
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: can from this glorious opportunity. This morning I woke up
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, I love Mike McCarthy. I think he'd
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: be great. Like, my expectations are so low right now
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: for who will be the head coach? What this organization
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: can pull in based on its history, based on its
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: executive structure, based on how much it might be willing
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: to pay versus other teams, Like can we get Mike
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: dickaback like Mike dick a circa nineteen eighty three, who
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: is essentially Dan Campbell?
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: True?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Is there a Dan Campbell motivator out
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: there who can overcome literally generations of ineptitude and ownership
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: that is legacy focused and driven and has not been
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: able to transform into a modern organization. Give me that guy.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: I'll say. I've learned as an Eagles fan that you
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: don't want the guy you want, you usually don't want
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: to get, right. I remember I wanted Ben Nacadoo and
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, and we got Doug Peterson, some nobody QB
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: coach from Kansas City War still wore visors and I
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: was like, oh my god, this guy is not filly
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: at all. Probably my only ring so shows how stupid
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Ust fans can be. So yeah, I just want to
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: get your level of it because I'm I'm reading, I'm
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: with you, I'm reading the news and everything like that,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: and it's like, man, this is gonna be really interesting
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: to see who ends up with the Bears because you
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: do have, you know, the top talent at quarterback position,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: and there's a lot to work with it with his team.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: So it's to me, it's fun like when you're trying
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: to figure out the future when you're a team like
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: you have, it's it's exciting to because either going to
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: absolutely love it or you were going to hate whoever
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: they bring.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: In, doesn't matter. It's not going to end well and
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: it'll be the wrong person. It's so funny that you
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: mentioned Doug Peterson because I wrote a little soliloquy about
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Doug into the script today because he means a lot
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: to both of us and he's an integral part of
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: both of our lives. You just mentioned he led your
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: favorite team to its only super Bowl win in twenty eighteen,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: which happened to be played a little Action Network history here.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Weeks after we launched Action and we did a massive
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: radio and TV blitz, like in the two weeks before
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl to get Action all over local radio,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: doing these radio two tours, thirty forty fifty spots, whatever,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: and we were all over you know, the airwaves, predicting
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: that the Eagles would cover as underdogs in that game
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: against the Pats. Obviously they did more than that, and
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: it kicked off a beautiful beginning to our business. As
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: you know, I just said it, like I almost feel
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: like Doug Peterson is a little bit of the precursor
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: to Dan Campbell because the most famous play from that game,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: of course, is Philly Special, Philly, Philly. They go forward
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: on fourth and one at the end of the first half.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: It turns from a fifteen to twelve leave into a
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: twenty two to twelve lead. They scored a touchdown on
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the play. It was that you know, option to Nick Foles,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: who was who caught the ball in the end zone.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: But here's the real reason why, Well do you agree
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: with me? By the way, like I think he was
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: at the leading edge of going forward and fourth down.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: He was more aggressive as the Eagles coach than any
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: other coach in the NFL was at the time, and
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: it sort of gave birth to what a life lot
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: of coaches do today, especially Dan Campbell.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: Shockingly, I can't be I'm gonna do it because he
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: was not this way at the end of his career.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: But Riverboat Ron Ron Rivera that team, that run, he
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: was the most go for Cam Newton fourth and two,
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: fourth and three, ultimate trust in his quarterback. So I'll
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: give him the crib, But I think Doug definitely was
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: the guy that was the first to have a ton
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: of success with it, right, like that that run, you
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: know that was all about it, right He even that
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl He had those big, big moments like that,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: like you just talked to the Philly specials on a
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: fourth and one, like, you know he misses that play.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Talk about an idiot, right if like you're going for
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: in that in that position. So yeah, Doug. Doug Peterson
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: definitely at the top of that list.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: We also love him because his team's covered this season.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: This Like we talked about this when he came back, like.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: We was good to us as a dog.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I loved betting Doug Peterson when he came back to
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the Jags. Uh. He finished his career over five hundred
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: over fifty three as an underdog, so he was covering
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: and making us money this season. This is a great
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: stat I looked this up on Action network you can
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: see against the spread records. This season, the Jags were
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: ten and seven against the spread, tied with four other
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: teams for eleventh best. However, they were only They were
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the only team of the top thirteen teams to finish
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: with double digit losses and only one of three teams
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: to not make the playoffs. The others were the nine
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: win Bengals and the eight win Cardinals. Late in the year,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: he provided one of the few bright spots we had
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: this season. We just had a beat on Doug Peterson
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: and Mac Jones and his team. So let's give it
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: up for Doug. Ep Thank you Doug, Thank you Doug.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
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• 6:59
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• 7:02
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• 7:25
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply right One last quick announcement before it gets
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: to a wildcard weekend. Our favorite one hundred thousand dollars
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Them contest has crowned its winners. Paperwork
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: is being filled out, piles of cash or being dolled out.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: On Thursday morning, Simon and I expect to be chatting
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: with are extremely excited forty thousand dollars first place winner.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I look forward to sharing that with listeners. The dude
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: was on fire all season long. We're gonna try to
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: convince to put all of it on Wildcard weekend with
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: us A very quick congrats two week eighteen winner, Promo
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Master went five and zero within one yard of the tiebreaker.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Promo Master takes home the final weekly one thousand dollars prize. Simon,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: we love the playoffs we're starting a new it's a
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: challenging regular season. I feel locked in. I feel good
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: about where we're headed. I feel like I have clarity.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Are you ready to roll with your brother?
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I am. I just want to pick it back off
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: what you just said though, how much we do love
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: our fans and you know me chat, we don't know
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: the future with what our contest says next or anything
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: like that, but to have two seasons in a row
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: giving away over one hundred k cash, it's pretty cool,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: man Like, it's it's so rich getting in this unique
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: position to do it. And thank you to all the
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: fans that played in the contest and obviously the fans
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: that came to our live show the past two years
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: and just talked about the contest and how much fun
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: it is. And you know a couple of people I've
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: met like that thousand dollars, right, that's huge that week, Right,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: it goes towards your rent or maybe in a vacation
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: you're you're planning with a special friends. So yeah, I'm
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: happy it's over for us personally, but I'm sad it's
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: over for the fans and end the season just because
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: it is so much fun. Just giving away free money every.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Week Simon another great example of how you feel more deeply.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: N are a significantly kinder person than I am.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: If you catch me at the right moment.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well it's early in the week. Right.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: There you go.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Chargers first playoff game, Saturday afternoon, visiting
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the Houston Texans.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: This game has been bouncing around three two and a half,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: three two and a half. I did bet at at
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I bet the Chargers. It's at
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: three at bet three six five. There's one or two
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: books where you can get two and a half. We
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: like the Chargers on Sunday night. Nothing has changed mind,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: thirty six hours of research since the game's locked on
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Sunday night, digging in yesterday, so many thoughts on this.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: But before I dig in, sort of from my point
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: of view, has anything changed for you since we first
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: started talking about it on Sunday?
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: No.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: I think our gut instinct of taking the minus two
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: and a half for the Chargers or take the minus
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: three was right. We both thought that this would go up.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: The most shocking part is it did touch three and
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: a half for a second, and then some really smart
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: money clearly came in. A couple of those books moved
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: all the way two and a half. That's how much
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: they respect the money they did come in on Houston.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: So it's it's gonna be an interesting game because I'm
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: not really seeing it from the Houston side. And like,
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: my perspective is, Okay, Houston's defense is better than people
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: give them credit for. Right, they have outperformed in a
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: lot of ways this season, but we've seen like Herbert
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: and this team against good defenses had played really well,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Like anytime they faced a good defense, they played sound football.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: And especially Herbert, I mean, you know, obviously it's NonStop
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: us giving him flowers, but he deserves it this season,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: Like the him being smarter with the ball is the
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: key to the success of this team this season. And
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you only had four turnovers or
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: five interceptions, whatever it was, it's it's incredibly low for
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: someone like him that loves to push the ball downfield.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: So looking at this matchup on paper, it's like, Okay,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: we already love the Chargers matchup wise, like their defense
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: going against this really bad I don't say really bad
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: because they've had so many injuries to their offense in Houston,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: but they are struggled, strug Yeah, struggling. And you know
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: the fact that we also have a short week here,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: like that's not being talked enough to me, is that
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: this is a short week and it is a spot
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: where hardball, you know, he's three and oh straight up
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: and against the spread this season as on a short week.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: On the flip side, we've seen Houston, they've struggled on
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: short weeks, right, They've not been the same team on
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: short weeks with less preparation. And the only hesitation for
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: me is that this will be the Chargers third strade
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: road game, Like that's not a great spot. They are
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: a road favorite in this spot, which is.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Stort straight as a road favorite, right.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: So, like there's a lot of trends at point to
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: back in Houston, which is to me why smart money
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: here is coming in on Houston where it's like mathematically yes,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: like Houston probably is the right side long term. But
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: me and chat always talk about there is that thirty
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: percent that's what we're betting on here. We're betting on
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: the other side of that where it's like this to
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: me is the right spot, the right side, and this
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: is the perfect team matchup wise against this this team
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: in Houston, Like, I just think that they could have
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: caught some other teams and maybe you could see a
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: way for Houston to win or cover. I'm just not
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: finding one in your chat, so, like it's shocking how
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: much I am supporting you here because this does feel
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: insanely chalky to me, like very very public. But to me,
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: the number is right, the value is on the number,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: and I'm just I just think this should be three
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: and a half. We're getting three minus two and a half.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: I'll take that value every time.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Smart money may be coming on Houston, but this is
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: the executive decision.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: have your honors text acute number executive decision.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: It's partially the exact decision because a lot of the
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: other numbers have moved just much more aggressively from when
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: we first started talking about these. So I still like
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the two and a half three for the Chargers. But
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: everything you said I can back up with even more
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: detail and more data. We have avoided betting the Texans,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: right like CJ has not played well. He has not
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: played well because of constant injuries to his receiving corps.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: The offensive line has truly been terrible. They cannot get
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: off the line of scrimmage and win one on one
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: matchups right now. Defenses have played him differently this year.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: The last eight games of the year, they ranked twenty
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: eighth in EPA per play. You know, that's behind Chicago Bears,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, why
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: have we loved the Chargers? You just mentioned it. They
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: do not turn the ball over only nine all season,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: second fewest behind Buffalo. And I'm gonna keep saying it.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I feel like this year and we'll get We're gonna
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: do like a big sort of study over the offseason
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: on the impact of getting the ball to thirty and
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: then being able to be within field goal range within
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: a play or two. How that impacts coaching decisions, clock management,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: fourth down decisions when you are deciding to go for
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: the extra four points, if you're on the other side
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: of the field and you know you have a field
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: goal in your pocket, Archers just don't make egregiously bad
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: coaching decisions. And that's been an imperative this year when
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: it comes to clock management, when it comes to going
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: forward and fourth down. So you and I are aligned.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: I like the coaching matchup, not saying I don't like
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Dmiko Ryans, but I just love Harbaugh and I like
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: what Herbert can do. I don't like how CJ. Stroud
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: has played. I think this will be the last game
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: to a tough year in which everything that the Texans
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: had had a hard time overcoming will come to fruition
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: in this game. They aren't going to all of a
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: sudden be great. They don't have the personnel that they
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: thought they were going to have.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: And the basically the basics is that when you're going
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: through all these playoff games, you really have to believe
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: in the quarterback right when you're playing these numbers, because
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: that's that's what it all comes down to, and it's
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: the legacy play off. You know, we both remember obviously
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: what happened last time Herbert was in the playoffs. That
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: was an historical meltdown. But when you go back and
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: you think about it, it's like, if you had the
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: right coaching, that just wouldn't have happened against that Jaguars team.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: His first time around the playoffs, So I'm not taking
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: too much away from it. I am taken away from
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: it that he came out in the playoffs this first
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: time around. He lit it up offensively. He was moving
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: the ball downfield. So I think Herbert is ready for
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: this moment. And I mean it's all sudden up chat
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: they if they if they steal this game here and
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: they do go to play Kansas City. We've seen how
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: tough they played Kansas City or can they be the kryptonite?
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: So it is lined up perfectly. And you know, as
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: someone that has money invested in the Chiefs, yes, it
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: would be very nice for me if Houston would win
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: this game because that would be an absolute lay up
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: for this Chiefs team. So yeah, it's it's lined up
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: for this Chargers team to make a run with Harball.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: My takeaway from that Jaguars Chargers playoff game, Doug ep
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: can bring you back and we need some money because
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: we were on the Jags in that game. I don't
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: know if you remember it. I remember that was a
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: stressful game right there.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: I think you were in New York. We were watching
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: with everyone and I was like we were at a
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: party with all of our coworkers, and I was like,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: I got to get out of here at halftime. I
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: just couldn't couldn't do it anymore. And yeah, that was
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: as a legendary comeback.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: If you're interested in tailing my executive decision on the Chargers,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: here's what you should do. Go to the app. Use
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: BET's bet three six five's quick slip link. You can
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: see it in this episode description. You're just going to
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: click on it. It's going to take you right to
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: the bet that you want. It's going to open up
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: a slip you can just put in how much you
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: want to bet you're on the Chargers. I used quick
• 17:29
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• 17:33
  Speaker 1: this next game. It is one click from your mobile device.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: The Chargers bet slip will just pop up in your
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: bet three six y five app. You'll be ready to bet.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: It is automagical Pittsburgh out Baltimore. It's the second game
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: on Saturday.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: It's Baltimore. Gentlemen, the Gods will not save you.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is a ten point favorite. This one's going for
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: a ride. Brother. It'll at eight and a half on
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. It's only gone up it seems like the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: ceiling is ten. When it hit ten, there was by back.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: It came down to nine and a half, then it
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: went back back up to ten, and it's kind of
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: just been sitting there, which is a little surprising to me,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: and that it hasn't come back down. I don't know
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: why this happened. Okay, I'm gonna tell you a story.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I woke up this morning at like four o'clock and
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: I had to pee. I tossed and turned for like
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: two hours trying to go back to bed, and I
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: couldn't This happens every single night, by the way, it's
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: freaking brutal. At around six fifteen, it's still pitch blackout
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: and this pops into my head. I don't know why.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Isn't it crazy that the Steelers are ten point underdogs.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: It's like, isn't this the ultimate overreaction? I rolled over,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: opened up the action app. I used quick slip, by
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: the way, and I bet the Steelers a plus ten.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: That's a bad moment right here for your youngsters. Let's live.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: It's not the shocking though, because we basically broke it
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: down to the net. We knew this was gonna be
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: one of the heavier teased moneyline parlay teams, Like the
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: books basically are just protecting against that chat. That's what
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: to me the movement's based off, because I told you
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: they know they're gonna get Pittsburgh professional money, Like it's
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: just a fact that it's going to come in the
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: amount of money though from Joe public right now just
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: shows how heavy it is on the moneyline parlays and
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: everything like that with this Ravens team, which to me
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: makes sense. This is a Pittsburgh team that they're on
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: what a four game losing streak. I think Evan put
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: in his article they haven't scored more than seventeen points
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: in those games, Like Russ has just fallen off an
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: absolute cliff. To this point, me and you are simply
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: betting on this basically this matchup because we have historically
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: always just taken the dog and we've just been making
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: crazy money doing it, and the fact that these are
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: divisional rivals and that these games are always just weird. Now,
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: the first time they played, I believe was eighteen sixteen
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: win by this Pittsburgh team. Second time they played, I
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: believe that I got blown out thirty four to seventeen
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: four seventeen, But when you go back and you look,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: it's like there were basically in that game until Joey
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: Porter Junior went out. Once he went out, Lamar just
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: totally took advantage of that. Now his back, JJ Watt
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: put up a legit, I think his first his career
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: at last week.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: TJ Watt, Yeah, JJ, every single same.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: You know why, It's because I've been I've been watching
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: a lot of JJ Watt stuff because he owns my
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: soccer club, Burnley. So I've just been locked in on
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: JJ Watt. I know it's brutal, I keep doing it.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: But TJ basically had his first, I feel like of
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: his career shutout last week against Cincinnati, Like literally didn't
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: have a tackle, didn't have a sack at zero pressures
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: was He even said it was one of the worst
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: games he's ever played. Okay, so we have Joey Porter
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Junior back for this defense, we have an insanely motivated
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: TJ Watt defensively, and they might be without their number
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: one were and Zay Flowers, which to me, that's an underline,
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: like that's a very very something that's not being talked
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: about enough right now. That's a huge deal for this
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: team losing him coming in because he is the deep threat,
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: like he's the reason they have to keep a safety
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: back and that Derek Henrick can have these type of runs.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: Same with Lamar. But now that he's out, why would
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: they not come down and stack the box. So yeah,
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: we like we didn't dive into the trends. I kind
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: of want to save that for Evan Thursday, but I
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: love it like this. I can't help it. When it
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: went to ten, I remember thinking to myself, oh my god,
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: I am either just the sucker right now, just like
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: last week with that Chief's number, or this is like
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: you just said, this is an insane amount of disrespecting
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: movement against this Pittsburgh team and we are getting I mean,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: what feels like two to three free points to work
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: with here, like something that's very unique to playoff football
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: where books have to protect against these big favorites. So
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: we know the data right ten point favorites, they're seventeen
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: and one straight up. That one loss was Lamar against
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: that Tennessee team twenty twenty, I believe. So there's just
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: there's a lot, like I know we we I get crown.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Chad does is lamar hater. It's
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: just in the playoffs, Like, what do you guys want
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: me to do? We have the data, Like last year
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: we talked about that was the perfect team for him,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: and he couldn't do anything against that Chiefs team. So
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: we've seen him struggle against good defenses in the playoffs.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: I think this Pittsburgh team, I know they haven't shown
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: up late, but I still think they are an elite defense.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: And this is a nice spot to back this Pittsburgh team.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Simon says, give me Pittsburgh plus ten. Chad.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: When Simon says do it, we do what Sence, I
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: bet it too. I put it in the app it
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: said plus ten. I couldn't decide when I was ultimately
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: betting it. Is this a high confidence bet that we're
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: making or is it a we're backing the trends and
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: we're backing the overreaction at the ten, I don't know
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: that we have a team that is in a winnable game.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: I think we're just getting to your point, a team
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: that has lost four games in a row. You mentioned
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: that the seventeen points. They haven't scored more than seventeen
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: points in a game since beating the Browns twenty seven
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: to fourteen on December eighth, right, you know, while the
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Ravens they haven't scored fewer than thirty one points or
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: even lost since December first. So the reason this number
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: is so big right now, And I agree, let's save
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: some of the massive trends that back the Steelers for
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Thursday show. But if you've listened to this show all
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: season long, you know that, like this matchup between Harbaugh
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: and Tomlin favors the underdogs, and Mike Tomlin specifically, he
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: has historically dominated as the underdog in this matchup. So
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: like this is such a disparity in public perception more
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: than anything. That's why this number is so big. And
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: you're alluding to it with the sort of the teaser
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: protection and all that kind of stuff.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: And I've been someone that has just faded Pittsburgh in
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: the playoffs these last couple of years just because it's
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: been like a Duck Hodges or Kenny Pickett. It's never
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: been a quarterback I can believe, and I'm not saying
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying I believe in Russell Wilson. He's the guy.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: This is this is the type of moment, This is
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: the reason they brought him in. This is a veteran
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: quarterback in the playoffs who's had playoffs success. You expect
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: him to step up in this big moment. But to me,
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: you're you're saying, what's your confidence level? It's it's as
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: high as it could be on a team that's lost
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: four straight. It's it really is all about their matchup.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: Like if they're playing a legit good team like say
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: the Bills, it'd be different. This isn't that would be
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: outside their division. This is just the two teams are
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: familiar with each other where like we said, it's it
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: always leans towards the dogs when these two teams play.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: And then it gets magnified the fact that Lamar has
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: one team that he really struggles with in his career.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: It's Pittsburgh. Like that. We talk all the time about that.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: It's a huge deal. So so there's your certain teams
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: that match up all against you, that have your number,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: and I just believe in this Pittsburgh team. So yeah,
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: I'm obviously confident, and it's really all about the number.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: Like this, this reaching plus ten. I mean again, like
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I said, I just can't help myself. That's way too
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: many points and it just feels like it's an easy
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: one that's going to come down to a field goal,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: and we're getting a ton of value on this Pittsburgh team.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: So in that game on the twenty first, there's a
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: couple games in the playoffs that are rematches from earlier
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: in the season, the vikings in the Rams as well,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: and I think that bears looking at because in that
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: game on the twenty first, it was I think seventeen seventeen, right,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: it was close through it was close through three quarters,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: and then the Ravens went ahead in the last ninety
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: seconds of the third quarter. And that's around when Joey Porter,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: you know, he tried to play in the second half.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: He couldn't, right, Russell Wilson threw a pick six. Would
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: have felt like after that this team needed to be
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: perfect and they couldn't. Yeah, And also George Pickens did
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: not play in that game. And I know, like he
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: was shitty last week against the Bengals. I don't expect
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: him to be shitty every week, and I that was
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: like his first game back after several weeks out. You
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: gotta expect him to have some kind of impact here too.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, we get all the doubt on Pittsburgh. We
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: understand why money is coming in so heavy and Joe
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: Public is backing this Ravens team. It's just, you know,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: this is the type of swat we played, Chad, and
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: you know, I always bet. I would say I bet
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: playoffs a little differently. If this was a regular season
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: obviously we would be on this Pittsburgh side. But no,
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: it's just I just love this number so much for
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: One other thing I'll add before we get on to
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: the next game is the Ravens are snake pick when
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: it comes to procedure penalties, holding penalties, pre snap penalties,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: those things up when you're a ten point underdog. You know.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: That's like we saw it over the weekend. Like the
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Ravens weren't covered in that game until the very last
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: series when Derrick Henry you know, busted it open for
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: a long touchdown run. But they bite themselves in the
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: ass with really bad penalties that start them off behind
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the chains or kill drives or bring back big plays.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: So that could be something that comes into play if
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: you're interested in tailing this, Simon says, pick on the Steelers.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Check out the special bet three six ' five quick
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: slip link in this episode description. Just one click from
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: your mobile device and a Steelers bet slip pops up
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: and your bet three six y five app ready to bet.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Check it out. I love it. It's the best technology.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Really is Denver at Buffalo Sunday game Bufflow is eight
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Van Miller and the road
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: to the super Bowl goes through Orchard Park, New York,
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: and it is the Bills looking to trade the on
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: the snow much through New York for a trip.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: To the super Bowl. We discussed it eight and a half.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: We discussed life liking Buffalo. Mostly it was just the
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: first instinct. Matt Mitchell came on and said he does
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: not worry about the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard. I
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: don't worry about it either. I've bet the Bills at
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: eight and.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: A half, did you I've I'm on the other side.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: I know I've come around to them.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: I have.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: And it's really it really is about Teum Payton facing
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: this defense of Buffalo. I just I can't get on
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: my head how many points this is, and that historically
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: he has done well, and it's like, maybe maybe I
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: am thinking too much, read too much into the trends
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: here with this one. But I'm just going through the
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: matchup and it's like Josh Allen's going to get his
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: He's gonna put up points, and it's like, Okay, now
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: I'm banking on bone Nicks to drive the field multiple times,
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: to get me multiple backdoor touchdowns or whatever it's going
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: to be, because we already know the dealer, right, this
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: is going to be a January game in Buffalo. It's
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: going to be freezing cold. It's this kid's first playoff start. Historically,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: fade fade fade guys making their first starts, And I
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: did really want to be on Buffalo. This is a
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: team where you know, I will throw them in teasers.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna avoid the spread if I need be,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: because I'm just a little weary of this number being
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: so big. Smart guys I've talked to at this point
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: are just like, no, you have to take Denver, like
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: this is the exact spot, said Sean Payton, and Evan
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: wrote in his article it kind of backs it up right,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Sean Payton. He's on the press of Picton doing some
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: historical here. If he wins and covers this or if
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: he covers this game, I believe it. Evan, he'll be
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: five and oh is a road dog in the playoffs,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: which is rare air. So you know, obviously the other
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: times he did that, it was with Drew Brees, a
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Hall of Fame quarterback, but it's still it was Drew
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Brees as a dog in the playoffs, and Sean Payne
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: had him preparing up to that moment. I think the
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: same thing here where it's like, isn't this too many
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: points for a Bill's defense that we've seen since Week
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: nine have struggled like they're one of the bottom teams,
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: and they kind of got away with it at the
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: end there, right because they had a Patriot, then they
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: had the Jets, and then the Patriots again, Like not yeah,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: they didn't play anyone in the final week, but it's
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: like there was a reason they had kind of struggled
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: this season against winning teams. And I can't get over
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: at bo Nicks, man, it was historical. I think he
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: was twelve and five against the spread this season, one
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: of the best rookie seasons, We've seen him, and I
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: believe Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight had the
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: second best or maybe the best rookie season against the spread.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: So he plays up to the potential line sets by
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: the book makers. And in no world do I see
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: the Bills losing this. Like I said, happy to take
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: this down to two and a half, but covering this
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: number with that bad defense, I think it's going to
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: be a little more challenging than I perceived on Sunday night.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: I make this number seven and a half. It's eight
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: and a half. I'll take the value on this Denver team,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: but it's you can hear in my voice, not too
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: much confidence. Chet. I have heard so much about Buffalo.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: I can hardly wait to get there.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: I'm so surprised to hear this on Sunday night. We
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: felt so locked in on the Bills.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: I bet him seven and a half.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And like then, Brandon Anderson in the podcast that
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: he does, the action podcast that he does on Sunday
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Nights with Evan after the Sunday night football game, made
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: this his hot read. He made it their hot raed
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half. So Brandon Anderson made.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: I know he took Bills.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: He took the Bills itself OA, which is a couple
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: couple interesting stats from the show Seven Seeds. There have
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: been eight seven seeds in the four years since the
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: NFL expanded the playoffs. Five of those eight lost their
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: opener by at least twelve points wild card hosts that
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: may that made last year's postseason playing a team that
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: didn't twenty two to ten to one, almost seventy percent
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: over the past two seasons. So history tells us Denver's
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: experience inexperience will play a factor.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: At Bonnick's making his first start against a veteran like
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen Like, that's also a terrible trend. So I'm
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: with you. It's there's a lot to like about this
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: Bills team. That's why it's I'm not banging the table here.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: It's just I'm just weary of the.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Number against teams with the winning records. This year. Bo
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Nicks is one and seven with a minus thirty seven
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: point differential.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: Not great, Jim, that was good.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: That was really good. That was really good. Well, listen,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: I'm boomed that we're not together on it.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I might come around on Thursday. I just yeah, yeah,
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: I got bullied a little bit about like, there's not
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: too many games I had people talking shit to me
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: about that I respect, and this was one. They're just
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: like you and Chatt had sound way too confident on
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: this Bills team. And it's what you just read there.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: It's like, isn't this the game that Josh Allen just
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: fucking destroys this Broncos team that overachieved this year? But
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: no bone Knicks man covering machine.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: So the wise guys talked about me again when they
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: called you, they included me in the in the conversation.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: You didn't come up that I remember beyond.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Well no, no, but you just said you and Chad.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, I'm saying they didn't. They didn't call
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: up saying Chad's way off this week.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, that's okay. But the fact that they just
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: sort of include me. I like to be remembered, I
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: like to be acknowledged. The fact that they recognize me
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: as part of this is fantastic. That's really it. All right,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: This game Green Bay at Philadelphia, as my buddy Keith
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Jackson likes to say, is done.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: No, we can finally play the game.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: We love this game at three and a half on
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: Sunday night, and we assumed it would go up off
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: of either money or because Love news after we were
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: done with the show, it was pretty much it was
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: pretty clear Jordan Love was going to play. And this
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: line moved from three and a half to five and
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: a half between Sunday night and Monday morning. And I
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: can't think y're out why? Like that is the window
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: when it became clear Christian Watson was going to be
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: out and wasn't going to be playing this weekend, but
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: we knew Jordan Love was going to be playing. And
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know why it would get so high up
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: to five and a half, got back down to four
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Monday afternoon, popped back to four and a half this morning.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: What are you hearing? What are you seeing? What do
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: you know? It can't be, It can't be Jalen Hurts,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Like Schefter tweeted out yesterday that Jalen Hurts was still
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: in the protocol. But yeah, he's in the protocol because
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: he has to be in the protocol until he has
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: an opportunity to practice, and he hasn't had that opportunity yet,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: so we won't know his status until tomorrow. And or Thursday,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: because that's when he has the first chance to check
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: off that last thing you need to check off to
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: get out of the protocol, which is being on the
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: field for a practice. So why why did he move
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: up so much?
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: You know, I'd just say from the top, like sources
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: I have in that building that I know for a
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: fact they are just locked in. They're in the room
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: like they're everything they say it's ninety percent accurate. In
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: the other ten percent they're giving me is just to
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: throw me off the scent of some other bs. And
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: basically it's a given that Hurts is all good, he'll
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: be back. He could have played last week apparently, and
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: this is kind of Nixierranni playing mind games right now
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: with green Bay, and I guess books me too. I
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: honestly was a little scared because I did see that
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Chefter tweet and then we just said just came back
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: and out of like, oh well, they're not even scheduled
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: to practice till Wednesday.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so he can't be a bit of a red
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: herring of a tweet like it was. It was ever
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: by Chefty to get some engagement and make a little noise,
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: but it doesn't really mean anything.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: No, and like this is the time of year where
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: I have to have his you know, alerts turned on
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: because it's such a small amount of games that any
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: little detail like that it's a huge deal. It swings
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: lines like you just said. One of the more respective
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: books all out on Vegas. They were one of the
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: first to go to five and a half, which means
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: they took legit smart professional money, heavy on the Eagles,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: to go from four up to five and a half.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Books are gonna follow, Like right now, we talk all
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: the time books they can kind of do their own
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: thing in the regular season. In the playoffs, you basically
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: need to follow everyone else. Like you can maybe be
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: different by half a point, you can't be off by
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: the books by a full point. Like there is none
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: of that at this point. Like all the books are
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: gonna keep it really tight and a little bit of
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: follow the leader, right, A lot of these re public
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: books that don't take professional money, they're gonna follow the
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: books that do take the professional money. Those are the
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: people said in the line. So our initial reaction of
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: that three and a half terrible line, Like it's crazy
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: looking back on that. They opened at a three minus
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: three and a half. You know, as good as that
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Green Bay team was heading into that playoff series last
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: year against that Dallas team, it feels like it's the
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: opposite this year. Like they just have so many injuries
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: to key guys. I mean even talking about Jordan Love,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: like he's not fully healthy, he's banged up. Now he's
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: playing a team that you know, Eagles are in a
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: very unique situation here. They're one of the few teams
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: I believe they have all twenty two starters from Week
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: one still healthy, still playing in this matchup now, and
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: this this late of the season, coming off a rest week.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Jalen hurts. He's rested someone who needed desperately. Apparently he
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: was really banged up lower body. He needed two to
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: three weeks off. Like that was kind of a gift
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: for them to be able to be in that position. So,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: if you want to bet on a slow start, why
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: not take green Bay first quarter. Egos have struggled all
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: year in the first quarter. Green Bay has been pretty
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: decent coming out of the gates early on in game.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: So if you're looking for an angle for some reason,
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: take green Bay. That to me is the angle, Like
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: take them first quarter, maybe first half. This Eagles team
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: all season, they are who they are. They've just been
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: absolute juggering on in the second half because of sae
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Quon Barkley, and we've seen it now. This Green Bay team,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: they struggle against the run. They're just not good at
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: stopping the run. And now they're playing against one of
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: the best run running teams in all of football. So
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: to me, this number should probably GetUp to six. I
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: remember we talked something night. I was like, okay, if
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: this number is four, four and a half, that feels right.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: I go back frum the numbers, It's like, okay, this
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: number should be six. So the books to me, initial
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: move to five and a half. That to me feels right,
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: that feels warranted. There is still a book out there
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: that you can get a four right now on this
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: Eagles team. If you want to go grab that, I would.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: I would do it. If you want to back this
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: Eagle side, if you're someone like that just wants to
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: be patient and wait and take take Green Bay because historically,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: I guess this is a pretty good spot at back
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: green Bay. Right this is gonna be a little bit
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: of an inflated number, you know. Lafleur As a dog,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: especially in the playoffs, has been pretty profitable. Wait, just wait,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: I believe this will not get below four. This will
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: keep going up. I think it could touch six by kickoff.
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: So uh yeah, I'm pretty dug dug in here on
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: this Eagles team, especially at this number. But you know,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: if you come in here on Thursday Chat and this
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: is six and you're like, hey, I'm actually really fun
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: of love with this six, I could, I could, I
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: could be supportive of you take on the show, but
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: I think right now, the best value for your bang
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: for your buck right now is taking this Eagles team
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: either minus four minus four and a half while you
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: still can.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually was this was gonna be my other
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: call for exac decision, And actually I actually thought you
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: were going to do it for Simon says and take
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: the Eagles.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Now, I gotta go the gross way. I gotta take
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: that dog.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: But you mentioned I'm glad you talked about the Packers
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: rush defense, because we talked a lot on Sunday Night
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: about liking the Eagles. For as much as we like Saquon,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: we talked about their defense like their defense is so
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: legit number one across the board in so many different categories,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: but like top five in every single defensive category for
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: stopping the run. And we've seen how are the Packers
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: going to win games? They want to get the ball
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: to Josh Jacobs early. We see it in every single game.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: The graphic you could if you could bet on the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: graphic about Josh Jacobs running in twenty twenty four, when
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: it's going to appear over under two and a half
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: plays into the Packers first offensive series, like they they
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: want to run the ball, and then they get to
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: the second half and all of a sudden, like the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: running game slows down and they stop scoring right, And
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: so the Eagles there their line, their defensive line is
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: so physical and they need so little help stopping the
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: run from linebackers. It's just it's it's phenomenal to watch,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: and it's scary if you're an opponent. Meanwhile, their rush
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: offense is ridiculous, and the Packers rush defenses middle, middle
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: of the middle of the pack. So yeah, I'm surprised
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: to hear you say like at six, like now I
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: want to go rush and find that four and hit
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: it again, even though I already got it at three
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: I have like when that when that news came out yesterday,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: that Chefter a tweet, that's why Again I it's part
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: of the job, but I immediately was like calling runners,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: get in my car driving to Philly again. Got got
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: more Pittsburgh down at Pittsburgh plus ten, got more Philly
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: down a minus four, and even a couple books where
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: like I'll give you minus one twenty if you want
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: the three and a half, and it's like, yeah, I'll
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: fucking take that, give it to me. So it's it's
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: an interesting spot where that I think even the books
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: were like reacting to Schefter's news of oh, Jaleen Hurts
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: might be out and he might not play this game.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: Now we've come in today and it's like every book
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: is basically back up to four and a half. I
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: think they realize that that was just bad information. That
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: he's clearly going to practice either Wednesday or Thursday and
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: he'll be cleared from percussion protocols.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: So now that information, it was completely accurate information, just
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: totally selective and without context.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it just clicks like that's he got what he wanted.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Simon. One of the most important things in the NFL
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: playoffs is home field advantage. Because when we're home, we're
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• 42:48
  Speaker 1: As always wearing my tjs today put them on almost
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: like like I don't even think about it. If it's
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: a show day, they just automatically appear at the top
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: of the pile. It's like magic Washington at Tampa Bay.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's three point favorite at home Your first instinct
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: was playing this. You said you saw a couple two
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: and a half's on Sunday night. It did get up
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: to three. You played the Bucks. I have no read
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: on this one. It seems like two teams that have
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: qbs who can make the heart attack plays converting the
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: clutch too, defenses that are not very good, especially against
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: the strength of their opponent's offense. Seems like it's numbered
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: exactly right. You know, if home Field is three points,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: then basically they're getting the three points. I don't know
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: what to do with this one. In fact, if home
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Field is worth less these days, then the Bucks might
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: be the Mugs. The Bucks might be overvalued.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say if that, if you just going
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: lazy managers, go well, Homefield only two to two and
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: a half valuies on Commanders. I agree with that, but no,
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: it's to me this is just all about the Commanders
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: being overvalued. This line shoure probably be four four and
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: a half. The public just loves this Commander's team. They're
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: gonna bet it. I know some professionals who actually love
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: this Commanders team, and they're pointing to this the safety
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: position of the Bucks. They're like, dude, they're banged up,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: like they're gonna be able to push the ball downfield.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: And I I mean it goes back to what we
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: talk about Nicks. It's like we have a rookie Mick
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: in their first starting the playoffs, playing a veteran quarterback
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: with a veteran run offense like this, this is such
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: an amazing bounce back spot for this Buccaneers team, Like
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: this is kind of the dreams Innario. They just had
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: their worst game they could possibly have against a divisional
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: foe in a game which you know, I'm not saying
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: they should have lost it, but the Saints are such
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: a bad team. They did give it away. I think
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: they were up sixteen to three at one point and
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: they lost that game. So you know, that Bucks team,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: we've seen it when things are clicking, like they beat
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, they beat Detroit like they've beat I mean,
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: they dominated that Chargers team that we talked that we loved,
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: like they seem to step up on these big moments
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: against good competition, and they played back competition. They played
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: down to the level and they struggle. It's it's been
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: a very up and down team, and we know the deal.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: It's all about Baker. Chad. What what type of Baker
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: am I betting on here? And that's why, like I
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: looked at this to make Simon says, because I do
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: love this team. I love this number and I see
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: it going up. But it's the hesitation of Baker. It's like,
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy, but because he said such
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: a great year, but me and Chad to have experienced it,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: Like we've seen games where yes, he'll throw for five touchdowns,
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: he might throw for three or four picks, and it's
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: like he has to dig himselves out of these insane holes.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: This ain't the team to do that against, like Jane Daniels.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: You give him short fields, he's gonna kill you. Keep
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: giving them extra opportunities, he's gonna kill you. And the
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: biggest thing I'm betting on here is the trends in
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: the back in this veteran team. And you know the Bucks.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: They're at home against a rookie making his first playoff
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: start on the road. We know the deal. It's just
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: teams are tighter. And if this was what that Bonnett
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: sign is, which is like above a seven yeah, no doubt.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: I would like to play the Commanders like that would
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: be a nice back to option. It's not. It's sitting
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: on three right now and it's getting a ton of money,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: a ton of bets this Commander's team. So this feels
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: like the nice spot. There's a couple of spots here
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: you can fade the public, like if you want to
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: back Green Bay, that's a nice spot to fade the
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: Eagles in the public. But this one really jumps out
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: to me of rookie QB making first start on the road,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: rookie of the year, couldn't be any more hyped what
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: he is right now, and this Jade and Daniels kid
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: going against a Bucks team that after last week, it
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: feels like everyone's just off this team. Like again, I
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: was shocked to here professional as being the other side
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: where it just felt like such a layup bet to me.
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take the three and I pray, pray
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: that more money comes to the Commanders and I get
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: two and a half.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Look, you know what they say about Jaden Daniels, He
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: is the Bryce Young of the NFC East. The guy
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: can just flat out ball and he's not afraid. He's
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: not afraid to face down the rush.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: Now. I already can't wait to bet him to win
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: the nfcast next year because we know that deal right,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: It's whoever won this year is going through hell next year.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: So Eagles being third in the division, lock it up.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: Washington won the division next year doesn't get much easier.
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: But in this spot, n they're about to get humbled
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: this franchise.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: You're all in. I feel like this will end up
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: being like a must play for us. I have not
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: bet this game yet. I just can't get it. But
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: the way you feel about it, I'm obviously going to
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: want to be all in with you on this game.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: Last game on the board, Minnesota at the LA Rams
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: the Perfect. The Rams are one and a half point underdogs.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: This line has moved from two and a half down
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: to one and a half. Simon, can you name the
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: last team to beat the Vikings before they lost to
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: the Lions this past Sunday Night?
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: Was it that thirty twenty one Rams?
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: They lost on October twenty fourth, thirty to twenty. Then
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: they went on a nine game win streak.
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: Vikings lost.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: You mean the Vikings lost? Yeah, then they went on
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: a nine game win streak. The score was thirty to twenty.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: You're correct. I saw this funny TikTok meme the other day.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: It's like the Memory Championships or something, and it's a
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: dude who's married, and an off camera announcer says to him,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: can you name the score of the nineteen eighty two
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: mid season game between the Bengals and the Browns? And
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: he can, like name the game. He can name the score,
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: he can name the leading rusher, he can name you know,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: how many interceptions can you whatever? Right now, it's all
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: like a joke, right, It's like, can you name X,
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: Y and Z sports? Then it's like, okay, your wife
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: texted you this morning. She wants you at the grocery
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: store to pick up He cannot answer it. He's like,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: can you put it in a sentence? Can you give
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: me the context? He could not answer it. The fact
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: you can remember the score thirty to twenty from October
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: twenty fourth. So many things have happened those three months,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: and yet you can remember that exact store. Here's the
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: real question. What can we learn from that game? Like,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: other than the Bills game, it may have been the
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: Rams best performance of the season, right, Stafford went for
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: almost two eighty yards for a touchdown. They didn't give
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: it any sacks. Kyvin Williams ran for just under one
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: hundred yards. Vikings sacked three times, two for seven and
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: third down. Donald looked rattled, right, So is there like
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: a takeaway of that game? And on Sunday night against
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: the Lions, are we getting to Donald who winning a
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: nine game win streak but basically beat up on bad
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: teams and book ended it with losses to two playoff teams.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: So what's your take here?
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely like we talked about the playoffs coming
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: down the quarterbacks, and this to me is another game
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: of that. It's I don't know what Stafford we're getting chat.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: I mean Stafford's last three games he put up twelve points,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: nineteen points, and thirteen points. That was against a forty
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: nine Ers team that basically quit on the season, a
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: Jets team that we know the deal, and then Arizona.
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: It's like, was he hurt? Did he need this bye?
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Because Jimmy Jimmy g came in and lit up that
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: Seahawks defense. Like you know, McVeigh is putting him in
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: position to succeed. He's just not doing it like it's
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: It's been a lot of questions about Stafford down the stretcher.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: Is he injured? Like are we not getting enough info?
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: And that's what I've been working here because automatically I
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: wanted to be on this Rams team, Like this is
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: a team that has playoffs, been in the playoffs in
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: these big moments with a veteran quarterback. And offensively, he
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: has all of his guys like he has Puka Cooper,
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: He's Williams in the backfield, like there's no excuse here.
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: And defensively, we know, we saw it the last time
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: they played. They kind of know how to attack, you
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: know this this offense in the vikings. But you know
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Sam Donald, not that he gave away that Lions game,
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: but we all saw the stat they kept putting up. Right,
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: this is a team that this season they scored touchdowns
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: sixty percent of the times they went to the red zone.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: And that game against the Lions, they were zero for
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: four at one point, and this is like, oh for four,
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: Like they're letting Sam Donald throw it every time, so
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: he might have been you know, one for I believe
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: it was twelve in the red zone at one point,
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: like completions, and the one completion was a little dump off,
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: like you know justin Jefferson. Sure he had to drop
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: in the back of the end zone, but we had
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: guys online breaking down the film of all these easy
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: plays that Kevin O'Connell basically drew up from where it's
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: like pick play Oprah receiver coming down the middle. He
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: wasn't seeing it. So are we are we going to
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: react to Sam Donald because that was, you know, a
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: playoff game. He knew the deal. That's the game where
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: he wins. He gets that one seed, he's either getting
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: French by the Vikings or he's getting a fifty million
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: dollar contract per year from somebody. Like that was the moment,
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: and he didn't live up to it. I feel bad
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: for him because you could see him wearing it in
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: that game, like he knew he was going through it
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: and still that line's game. It was ten to six,
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: he got the ball start the second half, and he
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: did nothing with it. So like that's the fear here
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: is Sam is kind of running to what his problem
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: was all along his career. It's the mental demon. It's
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: like he has their arms count.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: He's seeing ghosts.
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: Actually, I don't want to say it, but that's what
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: it felt like.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: That's what it felt like on Sunday, honest to God,
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: and that I'm rooting for the guy. I hope he
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: gets a big contract. I'm all for sort of those
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: kinds of stories. But it felt like he was seeing ghosts.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: Right, And then you break down the numbers and what's
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: going into this one, and it's like, there's a reason
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: this ramped him beat them the first time around. Like
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: Stafford against the Blitz, He's pretty good against it. These
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: type of unique cover schemes that Flores likes to run
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: against a veteran quarterback like this doesn't usually work. It
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: works on the young guys and inexperienced quarterbacks, but guys
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: like Stafford who have seen at all, it doesn't work.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: So you know, if this, if Stafford hadn't been playing
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: so bad head into this, Chad, this would be another
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: spot I'd be like hammering, like this is a great number.
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: I've thrown it a bunch of teasers. Like getting them
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: up to seven and a half right now against this
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Vikings team is such great value. And I get the
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: public perception. I see why in the action app right now,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: all the money, all the bets are coming on this
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: Vikings team because you know they they've dominated this outside
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: their division this year, right, but we've seen the one
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: kryptonite to this division has been this RAMS team. Like
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: they took them down, they took down the lines like
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: they do match up well against these teams. So yeah,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: interesting spot here for this, this this RAMS team. I
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: really want us to be heavy on it, but I
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: won more infos because long as I want to talk
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: to more pro see what they're seeing. But yeah, you
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: can see I'm I'm really excited about this RAMS team.
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: I think you're getting good value, especially at plus one
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: and a half. This this should be either minus one
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: RAMS or closer to a pick. You're still getting good
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: plus value on this number. So yeah, clearly the value
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: is on this RAMS team.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Well, look, you mentioned what a veteran quarterback who's seen
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: it all can do against the Brian Flores blitz. Just
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: look at what Jared Goff did every single time he blitzed.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff threw it to that exact open spot and
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: he knew he was going to get tagged. He did it.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: He made an accurate throw if it was three, four
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: or five yards and it just kept chunking up plays,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: kept chunking up yardage, and all of a sudden they're
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: up thirty one at night, right, Like just a couple
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: of those times it comes through and you get burned.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: And that was the difference in that game. By the way,
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: teaser rams from one and a half to seven and
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: a half, bills from bills eight and a half to
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: two and a half.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's that one that jumps out to me.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: And again we obviously believe in the Steelers here. If
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: you've already made ravens teasers got ahead of the number,
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: that's that was a good bet whenever you made it.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: But at this point, you know, are you really going
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: to do a seven point teaser? Get them down to
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: three and you're gonna lose when the land's on three.
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: So that to me, like mean, that's why we're not
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: even bring up the Ravens here for our teasers. To
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: me the bills rams here. That that's the value jumping
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: out to me on the board.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: All right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
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