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Bristol 1 Preview: Does Ty Gibbs Finally Win His 1st Race? · Racers Odds

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Racer's Dodds.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_01: I'm David Stiles and I am joined by Andrew Curland.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_01: We're getting ready to head to the last great Coliseum and to Eastern Tennessee to Bristol Motor Speedway after the Cup Series took a break for Easter.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: We had a lot of action at Rockingham and Andrew, we didn't we didn't do very well on our picks.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: We had a couple of guys to win down there at the Rock.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: It didn't pay off.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: I did some pushes for the uh championship and some futures, and so we didn't bring in any money last week.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't a great week for us here on the show.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: The dollar on Ryan C it it was it felt right.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: It fell right in the heart.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't work out the way we wanted it to, but um I think I think luck is gonna turn around for us at Bristol.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think so.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: What can we expect?
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: We've got 750 horsepower package, we've got a new tire in the cup series, Chevy still with that new body, but it's not gonna matter because there's no arrow at this place.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: We'll have 16-second laps.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna run about 266 miles.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: This is gonna be an awesome, awesome preview for what this short track package is.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: What are you most looking forward to as we get ready to go to Bristol?
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'm most looking forward to about 20 laps into the cup race because that's when I truly think we're gonna know what the tires are gonna do.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: If history tells us anything, um, it's that expect the unexpected.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's kind of the mentality and the storyline.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Talking to drivers about what are we gonna see going into Bristol?
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: If I had to lean one way or another, I think we're gonna get the more normal Bristol.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think it's gonna be as much of a tire fiasco, tire chaos.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think uh the high on Sundays, right around 76 degrees.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: It takes 75 degrees track temp for tires to start taking rubber.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's with the old tire.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and so that's we're gonna be well above that if the air temperature is already above 75 degrees, and then on top of that, the tire um is made for more uh adverse weather conditions.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: It rubbers up even when the track is cold, and that was kind of the main reason why we saw the tire fiasco in the first place.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: So um I think we're gonna get normal Bristol, and that's kind of what I'm basing these bets around, but who knows?
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it'll be a crapshoot because we just don't know what this tire will do.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: Like you said, it's made for a little bit of a cooler temperature, but we'll be at a temperature where the track actually takes rubber, and if that's true, then we will see them actually move up as the race gets further on and start using that high line.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: But they'll use the bottom to start out and then it'll move up as as the race goes.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: So let's just go ahead and dive into it.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: There's a few guys that are red hot entering Bristol, and there are a few guys who are ice cold.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: I want to get your perspective first.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: Who are you really looking at to put money on this week?
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, there's there's a few guys, and I I guess I might as well jump right into it.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um there's one driver in particular who has great odds to win this race, plus 750 to win.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: He's a sleeper.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's never won a cup series race before.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: I think Ty Gibbs gets his first win this weekend.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: He has had the speed all season long.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: He's good at Bristol, he's been good at Bristol over the years, uh, finished top 10 in the last five races of 2026, so he's got momentum on his side.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um I really like what I see out of Ty Gibbs, and I think I think we're gonna see him win the race.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Now, there's some obvious, you know, dangling uh drivers to watch.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: The ones that are right in front of you, Kyle Larson uh dominated the last two normal Bristol races, leading 400 plus laps in both of those races, but he's on a winless streak.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's the most concerning thing uh for Kyle Larson right now is he hasn't won in 31 races.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: And it's almost a calendar year, right?
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's almost a calendar year.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's almost, you know, 30 the number's 38, right?
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: That's a full season worth of not winning.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Um he won the championship, of course, but this is gonna be more so his biggest test because the expectations are really high for Larson to win and to win in a big fashion.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: And if he doesn't do that this weekend, I think it's time to sound the alarm bells for the number five team.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we talked about it a little bit last week where Hendrick was underperforming a little bit, and I was saying Spire had overperformed, even though Chase Elliott pulled off a victory in Martinsville.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think you're right.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think Larson needs to come out and prove that he's still one of the most dominant cars on the track.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: And right now, he is the favorite across a lot of books to win, and that's going to be one of my bets this week.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think that they will find their momentum and their mojo going into this weekend at plus three twenty five.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: I don't mind putting a few dollars down on him.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: He is the favorite to win.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: I know that it's kind of a cop out, but he's still plus odds to win it.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think putting just a few units on Larson at plus three twenty five is actually a good bet.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: And to kind of hedge off of your Ty Gibbs, I think a top five bet on Ty Gibbs at plus one twenty is actually a pretty good bet.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: Listen to these finishes that he's had since Coda.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: Fourth, fourth, yeah, fifth at Vegas, sixth at Darlington, fourth at Martinsville.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: A top five on Ty Gibbs, I think, plus one twenty.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's worth putting a few units on that as well.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: I love that.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: Uh let's go, let's let's just keep going crazier.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um, let's let's just take another step into madness here.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: Hear me out.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: To all finish top ten, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Carson Hosevar, plus 329 parlay.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think of that?
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: I like that.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: Hosevar, what, finished 11th here?
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: Um the races last year, I think.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: He had a top, yeah.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: He I had him on pit road actually for both races last year.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: He was in my section.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: And watching that team closely, they have all the tools and all the pieces in the puzzle to win at Bristol.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Circumstance just got out of their favor uh when it came to actually getting a solid finishing result.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: But having watched Carson race at Bristol a little closer than I think maybe the TV broadcasts uh laid eyes on him last year, he has he's got real wicked speed.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, he was running in the top ten, I think it was his first ever start.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: He was filling in uh at Legacy Motor Club in the 42, and I think he even led some laps at Bristol.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: So he's been good at Bristol since he started his cup series career.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, last year.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: I could even go as far as if he puts all the pieces together, he could win the thing.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: He could win it.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think I think that's not out of the realm of possibility this week.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: His spring start last year for this race at Bristol qualified ninth, finished 11th.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's pretty decent.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean pretty good for Carson.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: And honestly, Hosevar had the winning strategy uh in the tire fiasco race, and they just didn't catch catch the caution at the right time at the end of the race.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: They they could have very easily won that race, and Carson knows that.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um and so I wouldn't even really look at the finishing positions for Hosevar at Bristol because they don't tell the whole story.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: They have speed.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: And well, in the in the fall race, I was gonna put this on there too.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: I know it's a different time of year.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: Started 12th, finished seventh.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: He's he's good here.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think that that's a wise, wise decision to put some money on Carson Hosevar.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: The next one that I'm gonna do, I'm gonna give you another top 10.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think Keslowski, plus 120 to top 10.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's on a little bit of a tear.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: He's got some momentum coming off of Darlington, off of Martinsville.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: He's had some good finishes back to back.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think those RFK cars are very, very solid.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: And Keslowski's good at this racetrack.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's one of his better tracks, I think.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: So I think a top 10 on him at plus 120 is actually a pretty solid bet.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's still a kind of right around that 50, 60 percentile probability.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm looking at him to have another good run this weekend.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: I don't have him on my radar, but I can certainly see it.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, heck, he was he was leading at the end of the race late.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now I know it was a little bit of tire strategy, but um if he was leading then and he didn't have as good of a year last year, I could certainly make an argument for Brad Kozlowski having a strong run.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I could see it.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um I do want to mention a quick O'Reilly or a few a few lower tier series um bets because to win the O'Reilly race, Larson's plus 110, Augier's plus 600, Zilitz plus 850, Quaple plus 1,000, like the guy to beat obviously is going to be Kyle Larson.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: He absolutely annihilated the field um uh last year.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: But if there's a sleeper driver to bet for the win on, I really like Sam Mayer at plus 1600.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_01: That's he's better.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's a good bet, plus sixteen hundred.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: And and I'm excited about that because I'll be on Pit Road this weekend.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I've got Sam Mayer in my section of Pit Road.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, I'm not to be a little bit of a homer, but it would be cool to see Sam Mayer get a W.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_01: And I actually like that plus sixteen hundred.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm gonna give you another one that I think is it's the odds aren't super long, but it is for a race win, and I think this will be hard to come by, but this will be in the Craftsman Truck Series, and this is on Caesars.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: Corey Heim is going for a chance to win$500,000 in the truck race.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: I think he can he can taste the money.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_01: He can see it.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: He can almost put his hands on it.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: He's plus 350 to win that race, so I think maybe putting a few units on him to win the Craftsman Truck Series race at plus 350 is not a bad bet.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: And he's really, really good in a truck.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: He's a favorite over eight cup drivers in the truck race.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's insane.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: But you know what?
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: I could see it.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm kind of rooting for it because how awesome would it be that Corey Haim, who not that he's got a chip on his shoulder because he's a fantastic race car driver, but he's the points leader in the truck series, but is ineligible to win the championship.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: He's got eight cup guys who want to win this Bristol race.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: If I'm Corey Haim, I'm like, screw it.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna show I'm gonna give people something to talk about.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: You know?
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: If if I can't win this championship, I'm gonna damn sure try to win it unofficially, you know, and what better way to do that than to smoke the cup guys on Friday night in the trucks?
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, why not just try to win all the money?
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: Just take all their money because you're gonna win the purse and then you get an extra$500,000 on top of it.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, go for it.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: Let it all hang out, Corey.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: I'm surprised.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's high time, baby.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'm surprised you even went for a prediction in the truck race because I I don't know what's gonna happen.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's it's it's a toss-up.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: Kyle Bush is in that race.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: He's fantastic in a truck, especially at Bristol.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: But then Front Row Motorsports is very good there with Lane Riggs uh and Chandler Smith.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: So, like, those are two good drivers.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: You also have Caden Honeycutt, who was knocking on the door of a win last year.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Christopher Bell is in the race, Carson Hosovar is in the race, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: I know any one of those guys can win.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: Any one of those guys can win, but I I I really think that he wants to go out there and prove that he's I could see it.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: He's the best.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: I can see it.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: Like the storyline before the cup guys so good.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: And it's Corey Heim ends up being the guy who smokes all the cub guys in his own race.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: I could see it.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: And and and we were talking earlier off camera, but I think the this is the second truck race that Kyle Bush has ran this year.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: He could very easily win at Bristol.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: He's got 23 wins at this track.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's arguably one of his better tracks.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: So uh I think that will be his biggest competition.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: Who else do you have on your on your card that you're going to put on your bet slip this week?
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um, the only other driver is, you know, he's got one Bristol top 10 finish in nine starts.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: Not a great stat, but I have to go with Tyler Reddick, one dollar to win the race.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: Win the race.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna do something a little bit similar.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm gonna, you know, I said Keslowski to top 10 at plus 120.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's a conservative route if you want to go conservatively.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not gonna put a whole lot of units on this, but Keslowski plus$2,200 to win.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: I think if he starts running up front, you play the cash out game with him and you know take your take your winnings.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_01: But if he does win and you say put$10 down on that, you're gonna get$220 back plus your$10 bet.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: So to me, I think that that's not a bad value bet, but that one's just for your extra coffee money.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: Like that, you know, if that one pays off, that one pays off well.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: The last one that I have, Blaney taking on Christopher Bell.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: Blaney's at minus 110, Christopher Bell at minus 120, so they're right around the same probability, and I think Bell has been off as of late.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: His consistency's a little not at Bristol, but just in general throughout the season.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: They have not been as good as I thought they would be at this point.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: I know that you have taken them to have over three and a half wins, and if they're gonna do that on the season, they're gonna have to start running up front a little bit better.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna take the underdog in this matchup, Blaney at minus 110.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_01: I think he has a little bit more momentum, and I like doing these driver matchups because they just have to beat one other guy.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's one of the reasons why I like that.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: And I've been riding the Blaney train all year.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: So um I'll I'll put a few units down on Blaney at minus 110 versus Christopher Bell.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's not bad.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: Not bad at all.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, that's all I've got.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: Should we get to that?
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: So let's uh yeah, I was gonna say we'll go straight into the pick 'em game.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: So we did a bonus round last week.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: I took Sammy Smith, you took Justin Algeyer, neither one of those guys won the race, so we didn't get any extra points.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: So it is still an Andrew lead of 104 to my 90 points.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: So you have a 14-point lead, and uh, I'll let you pick first this week.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: So I have been going back and forth in my head about this, but I'm just gonna stick with my gut.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not laying it up this week.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: Give me Kyle Larson.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, he's going for the big gun.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna actually take your advice and I'm gonna pick Ty Gibbs.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it was between him and Ty Gibbs.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think Gibbs, I don't again, I'm still playing the strategy of I'm trying to hold on.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: Great pick.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: Hold on to my guys as long as I can for the tail end of the year, and and Gibbs is really, really good here, and he's been really good as of late.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: So I think it's time to use one of those medium tier, you know, picks, and and then I'm gonna go with Gibbs.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I was actually hoping you wouldn't pick Gibbs because now I'm regretting it because I let you go first.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: I thought you were gonna pick Gibbs.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: I know, I know.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: Listen, I botched it, David.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: All right, I botched it.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you won't if Larson ends up winning the race, because then it'll you he can go out and walk the dog with a field and score like 75 points, and then I really will be in trouble.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: So you know, we're we're we're pretty close right now with about 14 points, but uh, you know, maybe maybe it'll work out.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I'll cut the lead a little bit more as we find out what happens this weekend and the mountains of eastern Tennessee.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: Anything else here before we close up?
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh oh man.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: No, I'm excited, David.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: You're making your pit road debut this weekend.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's very exciting.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: How are you feeling about it?
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: I'm excited.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: I I'm just happy to be part of the group.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: I'm looking forward to telling the story and just having a lot of fun.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I'll be it's triple header weekend, so I'll be on all three of the broadcasts.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: We'll do trucks and O'Reilly and Cups.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm I'm excited.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just glad to glad to be a part of it, and we'll have a lot of fun.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's what it's about, right?
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, me and you will be doing the truck broadcast.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: You'll be on the front stretch, I'll be on the back stretch.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll get to see if Corey Haim can actually win the five hundred thousand dollars to get together.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: That'll be pretty cool.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna find out, yeah.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't have to.