Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Special Edition: Nvidia Forecast Misses Loftiest AI Estimates
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- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news third.
- 0:07Speaker 2: Quarter adjusted earnings per share coming in above estimates at
- 0:09Speaker 2: eighty one cents. Estimate was for seventy four cents. Third
- 0:12Speaker 2: quarter at revenue coming in at thirty five point one
- 0:15Speaker 2: billion dollars. Estimates were for thirty three point twenty five
- 0:17Speaker 2: billion dollars third quarter data center revenue. This is what
- 0:20Speaker 2: everybody wants to see that coming in above estimates thirty
- 0:23Speaker 2: point eight billion dollars. The estimate was for twenty nine
- 0:25Speaker 2: point one four billion dollars. Carrol Nvidiac's fourth quarter revenue
- 0:30Speaker 2: at thirty seven point five billion plus or minus two percent.
- 0:33Speaker 2: The estimate was for thirty seven point one billion dollars.
- 0:35Speaker 3: Gotta say, initial reaction, folks, not an upbeat one. Kunjan
- 0:39Speaker 3: Zabani of our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior semi conductor team, he's
- 0:42Speaker 3: an analyst. And then we're going to want to bring
- 0:44Speaker 3: in another guest to kind of give us some more
- 0:46Speaker 3: thoughts about what we got from video today.
- 0:48Speaker 2: Yeah, Caroline Hyde, who hosts Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg TV,
- 0:52Speaker 2: is joining us now. She's got our eyes closely watching
- 0:55Speaker 2: everything happening over ed in video that forecasts failing to
- 0:57Speaker 2: meet the loftiest estimates for the company cheers in the
- 1:00Speaker 2: after hours right now down about four percent, so they're
- 1:03Speaker 2: off of those lows, Caroline, But is this just about
- 1:05Speaker 2: high expectations, very high expectations and in Nvidia coming out
- 1:09Speaker 2: and saying Okay, we're almost going to meet them, but
- 1:11Speaker 2: not quite.
- 1:12Speaker 4: And a very high market valuation that is the most
- 1:15Speaker 4: valuable in the world, that has seen a run up
- 1:17Speaker 4: of almost two hundred percent so far in the years.
- 1:20Speaker 4: So maybe some profit taking when you are seeing, Yes,
- 1:23Speaker 4: Luke Capital, if you dig into the analysts expectations for
- 1:26Speaker 4: the fiscal fourth quarter or twenty twenty five, Luke Capital
- 1:29Speaker 4: had it at about forty four billion dollars as the
- 1:32Speaker 4: highest realm.
- 1:32Speaker 5: Then you had few one and securities at about forty one.
- 1:34Speaker 4: Billion, and then you get into the thirty seven billion
- 1:37Speaker 4: dollar range with the likes of Craig Hullum and Da
- 1:40Speaker 4: Davidson was a little bit above that. So compared to
- 1:43Speaker 4: perhaps some of the highest levels out there, they're coming
- 1:46Speaker 4: in below and there's a plus or minus two percent
- 1:49Speaker 4: there to be built in as well. So I think
- 1:51Speaker 4: there is some digesting that this isn't beaten raised and
- 1:54Speaker 4: blown out of every single analysts expectations.
- 1:58Speaker 5: Still, these are incredibly strong numbers.
- 2:00Speaker 4: This is a guide to the fact that we're getting
- 2:03Speaker 4: Blackwell on stream. That supply side will be ironed out,
- 2:06Speaker 4: and I think we'll have far more from Gensen hung
- 2:08Speaker 4: on that particular perspective, and that demand is still incredible.
- 2:11Speaker 4: So I think there's just a little bit of profit
- 2:13Speaker 4: taking coming on. When we've seen that the rapid rise
- 2:16Speaker 4: has been two hundred percent over the year, maybe four
- 2:18Speaker 4: or five percent sell down isn't the most remarkable.
- 2:20Speaker 3: Shift, Caroline Great point, right, it's not Reay yet. Well,
- 2:24Speaker 3: you know, listen, this is her world that she's talking
- 2:26Speaker 3: to these you know, tech companies, following them inside and outside,
- 2:29Speaker 3: and this idea that there's still supply, that there's demand,
- 2:32Speaker 3: it's just the supply constraints. It's not like people are
- 2:34Speaker 3: running away from the products. Having said that, I want
- 2:36Speaker 3: to tap into your knowledge of this industry and that
- 2:39Speaker 3: you do have companies that come out and it's gangbusters,
- 2:42Speaker 3: and then maybe they have some issues with supply constraints
- 2:45Speaker 3: and so on and so forth. This is kind of
- 2:46Speaker 3: part of the process. Is that fair?
- 2:48Speaker 4: I think that's fair when it comes to in Video
- 2:49Speaker 4: as well, and the rapid rate of innovation. I mean,
- 2:51Speaker 4: they've almost become an Apple in every single year they're
- 2:54Speaker 4: bringing out their latest neww chip set and design, and
- 2:56Speaker 4: we go from Hopper swiftly on to Blackwell, and people
- 2:59Speaker 4: have got to keep up with that innovation.
- 3:01Speaker 5: Just the way in which you store your.
- 3:04Speaker 4: Chips and the infrastructure within your data centers means that
- 3:08Speaker 4: if they're vertically stored, well, that's going to lead to
- 3:11Speaker 4: more heating issues. Then if you're doing it more broadly
- 3:13Speaker 4: on a horizontal perspective. There is a lot of innovation
- 3:16Speaker 4: that has to come along with in Video's own GPU
- 3:19Speaker 4: CPUs and overall chipsets. So I think that they have
- 3:23Speaker 4: said and guided to the market that yes, you're getting
- 3:25Speaker 4: this reporting of overheating, Yes you're getting these reports of
- 3:28Speaker 4: snags and design. This is entirely normal, and we're working
- 3:32Speaker 4: very closely with our hyperscale sub clients to fix this,
- 3:36Speaker 4: to innovate with them and ensure that we can get
- 3:38Speaker 4: them out there as swiftly as possible. I think there
- 3:41Speaker 4: has been also just trying to spreading out of AI demand.
- 3:45Speaker 4: What's been interesting hearing from Jensen Wong of late has
- 3:48Speaker 4: been the scaling laws. Basically, the theory goes is that
- 3:51Speaker 4: the more data you fire, the more compute power you bring,
- 3:54Speaker 4: the faster and more sophisticated.
- 3:56Speaker 5: These large language models become.
- 3:58Speaker 4: But actually we started to hear from the anthrop from
- 4:00Speaker 4: the great reporting coming out of San Francisco with the
- 4:03Speaker 4: Bloomberg team that Rachel Mets is saying maybe open aiyes
- 4:06Speaker 4: had to slow down a little bit in terms of
- 4:08Speaker 4: the developments of their own large language models because they're
- 4:10Speaker 4: not getting as sophisticated as it happen in the Leaps
- 4:12Speaker 4: and Bounds. Jensen still saying, Look, in the next decade,
- 4:15Speaker 4: you're going to see a million times increase in compute.
- 4:19Speaker 4: But we've just got to get there in terms of
- 4:21Speaker 4: actually making it happen.
- 4:23Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, hard to even imagine, hard to even
- 4:25Speaker 2: imagine that kind of increase in compute at this point,
- 4:28Speaker 2: Kun john'subney, I want to bring you back in here
- 4:30Speaker 2: over a senior intell senior analysts over at Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 4:34Speaker 2: We're seeing shares down about two percent in the after hours.
- 4:36Speaker 2: A couple headlines the company sees fourth quarter revenue coming
- 4:39Speaker 2: in at thirty seven point five billion dollars plus or
- 4:42Speaker 2: minus two percent. That's pretty much in line with estimates
- 4:45Speaker 2: at thirty seven point one billion dollars. Third quarter Data
- 4:47Speaker 2: center revenue blowing past expectations at thirty point eight billion
- 4:50Speaker 2: dollars estimates report twenty nine point one billion dollars Coon, John,
- 4:54Speaker 2: what's the question you'd ask, Jensen Wong?
- 4:56Speaker 6: I mean, my questions really would focus on trying to
- 4:58Speaker 6: figure out the physical twenty six calendar twenty twenty five
- 5:01Speaker 6: black Well revenue ramp magnitudes and around gross margins. I mean, look,
- 5:05Speaker 6: we have seen in the past when vidias come out
- 5:08Speaker 6: and beat way more than what they did right now,
- 5:10Speaker 6: and the stock has still plummeted double digits. You also
- 5:14Speaker 6: have to keep in mind this end of the year.
- 5:16Speaker 6: The stock has tripled this year, right, so there is
- 5:19Speaker 6: some incentive for profit locking and taking the gains away
- 5:22Speaker 6: from the table as well.
- 5:24Speaker 3: You know, I also do think about how do you feel, Kunjon,
- 5:27Speaker 3: that they are giving numbers for fiscal year twenty twenty
- 5:30Speaker 3: six good sign? Do you trust that visibility? Like, how
- 5:34Speaker 3: do you think about their ability to put out a
- 5:37Speaker 3: number and maybe that number might change based on if
- 5:43Speaker 3: they figure out the supply issues.
- 5:46Speaker 6: I mean, I see that as a very strong sign
- 5:48Speaker 6: I mean, look at this earning season across the semi
- 5:50Speaker 6: sector right nobody is giving out numbers that far out.
- 5:54Speaker 6: Even in Vida's competitors who are trying to address the
- 5:57Speaker 6: same opportunity and are sing the same strong demand signals,
- 6:01Speaker 6: are not giving out numbers, strong confident numbers that in
- 6:06Speaker 6: year out. So that really speaks to the strength and
- 6:09Speaker 6: the confidence that they have that they'll be able to
- 6:12Speaker 6: support this demand and the demand is there, and you guys, it'd.
- 6:15Speaker 3: Be tech talk to him a lot, like I'm just
- 6:16Speaker 3: curious with the top of mind, if you were sitting
- 6:18Speaker 3: down with him right now, like top two.
- 6:20Speaker 4: Questions, and if Ed Ludlow was but he's out in
- 6:22Speaker 4: fraternity leaves and congratulations.
- 6:23Speaker 5: To on Ed Ludler becoming a father.
- 6:25Speaker 4: But I think first and foremost we'd be asking exactly
- 6:28Speaker 4: as Kuan Jhn has been saying, as you all have
- 6:30Speaker 4: been saying, it's got to be about supply coming on
- 6:32Speaker 4: tap and just talking a little bit more around Blackwell
- 6:35Speaker 4: and the incredible demand, What exactly does that really mean?
- 6:39Speaker 5: Who are the key clients?
- 6:40Speaker 4: How are we seeing that diversify out of the main
- 6:42Speaker 4: hyper scalers, if.
- 6:42Speaker 5: At all, and then I think sort of trying.
- 6:45Speaker 4: To articulate that, look, yes, maybe we haven't blown past
- 6:49Speaker 4: the highest analyst expectations, but thirty seven and a half
- 6:53Speaker 4: billion dollar guide that's still seventy percent ramp up in revenue.
- 6:57Speaker 4: That's following a ninety percent ramp up in revenue of
- 7:00Speaker 4: the fiscal quarter just reported their fiscal third quarter. I
- 7:04Speaker 4: think he's just going to have to sort of remind
- 7:06Speaker 4: the market how far they've come, how far they've still
- 7:09Speaker 4: to go, and maybe just take a bit of a
- 7:11Speaker 4: reality check here that you know, at the moment, the
- 7:13Speaker 4: numbers will go up, but maybe not at the two
- 7:16Speaker 4: hundred percent that we were hoping to see well, that
- 7:18Speaker 4: we did see in the first quarter of twenty twenty
- 7:21Speaker 4: five for their fiscal year reporting.
- 7:23Speaker 2: Hey coon, John ian King on the live blog bringing
- 7:26Speaker 2: up a really interesting point, and it kind of gets
- 7:28Speaker 2: at the question that I was asking with regard to
- 7:30Speaker 2: super micro computer. Ian notes that cloud computing providers are
- 7:35Speaker 2: the biggest companies in technology, and they still dominate in
- 7:38Speaker 2: videous sources of revenue, making up fifty percent of sales
- 7:41Speaker 2: for its data center unit. So that's just a handful
- 7:44Speaker 2: of companies that are making up the majority of the
- 7:47Speaker 2: revenue for the data center in video watchers want that
- 7:51Speaker 2: number to go down. Three months ago that number was
- 7:53Speaker 2: forty five percent. Is that a concern to you.
- 7:57Speaker 6: I mean, I don't want to look at it from
- 7:59Speaker 6: quarter to because remember these large customers are lumpy in nature, right,
- 8:04Speaker 6: they have to also manage their capex and deployments. We
- 8:06Speaker 6: did see over the last two to three quarters, if
- 8:09Speaker 6: I'm not wrong, the number come down. It was about
- 8:12Speaker 6: close to fifty or even about fifty and it has
- 8:15Speaker 6: been coming down steadily. So that was a good sign
- 8:17Speaker 6: for us. I still have to go and digest the
- 8:19Speaker 6: numbers later on, but the fifty percent in the short
- 8:23Speaker 6: term might not be that great of a sign. But
- 8:25Speaker 6: I would not jump to conclusions just looking at one quarter.
- 8:28Speaker 6: It could be very well timing of you know, them
- 8:31Speaker 6: picking up a lot more Hopper supply supply right now
- 8:35Speaker 6: when they cannot get their hands on blackwell.
- 8:37Speaker 3: You know, I'm looking at the supply chain analysis on
- 8:39Speaker 3: the Bloomberg function. When it comes to Nvidia, Microsoft, about
- 8:42Speaker 3: nineteen percent of the revenue for Invidio, Meta, about ten percent,
- 8:45Speaker 3: super Micro nearly eight percent Alphabet about six percent, Amazon
- 8:50Speaker 3: more than five percent, Dell more than three percent. So
- 8:52Speaker 3: we talk about a handful of companies, these cluster of
- 8:55Speaker 3: companies that are so involved. You know, Caroline, I want
- 8:58Speaker 3: to bring you back in here. You know, Nvidia. This
- 9:00Speaker 3: has been such a focal point right the end of
- 9:02Speaker 3: the earning season, just thinking about it so much. You know,
- 9:06Speaker 3: how do you think about you know, Bloomberg Technology, you know,
- 9:09Speaker 3: into the Thursday edition, you guys when you're on air
- 9:13Speaker 3: and like, what's the tomorrow's story?
- 9:16Speaker 5: The tomorrow story.
- 9:17Speaker 4: I think we'll be trying to articulate where the growth
- 9:20Speaker 4: trajectory goes from here. I think we're gonna hear from
- 9:22Speaker 4: Jensen the next decade. You're gonna hear him talking about
- 9:26Speaker 4: humanoid robots. You're gonna hear him talking about drug discovery,
- 9:30Speaker 4: the capabilities of generative AI, the return on AI investment.
- 9:35Speaker 4: So I think we're gonna want to be talking to
- 9:37Speaker 4: the investors that back that vision. We're going to be
- 9:39Speaker 4: wanting to hear from the analysts out there that are
- 9:41Speaker 4: trying to square these numbers with where their own viewpoint
- 9:44Speaker 4: have been on the here and now at the fiscal
- 9:46Speaker 4: fourth quarter. But I think we're also going to we
- 9:47Speaker 4: want to think about who else is in the space
- 9:49Speaker 4: at the moment. It's answering some of the development issues,
- 9:52Speaker 4: some of the heating issues, some of the concerns around AI,
- 9:56Speaker 4: generative AI chip development and manufacturing. Who are the startups
- 9:59Speaker 4: in the space, wh the rivals in the space? What
- 10:01Speaker 4: are we seeing in terms of the hyper scalers building
- 10:02Speaker 4: their own chips. So I think there's so many directions
- 10:05Speaker 4: that we could go for, But for me, it's going
- 10:06Speaker 4: to be really interesting talking about where does AI infrastructure
- 10:09Speaker 4: go from here?
- 10:10Speaker 5: And where does in video's view on selver in AI?
- 10:13Speaker 5: Where does in video's view on China? Where does in videos.
- 10:15Speaker 4: View on the next repurposing of their chips not just
- 10:18Speaker 4: to keep hammering large language models, but the development of
- 10:21Speaker 4: generative AI in the real world.
- 10:23Speaker 2: So what are some of the names, Caroline, that our
- 10:25Speaker 2: investing audience has to have their eyes on. Is it
- 10:27Speaker 2: the sam Altman's of the world who are trying to
- 10:29Speaker 2: raise lots and lots of money to go after Invidia?
- 10:32Speaker 2: Is it the hyperscalers who are going to be doing
- 10:35Speaker 2: this in house? Who who holds a candle to them
- 10:38Speaker 2: or who could hold a candle.
- 10:39Speaker 4: To them in terms of siphoning off future demand or
- 10:43Speaker 4: in terms of just wanting to know who the name
- 10:45Speaker 4: key players are.
- 10:48Speaker 2: Off future demand because you know, Intel, Intel, Intel's in
- 10:52Speaker 2: a tough position right now, as you guys have reported
- 10:54Speaker 2: on a lot over the last year. Am D maybe,
- 10:57Speaker 2: but what about those upstarts.
- 10:59Speaker 4: Hmmm, I mean, and that's going to be interesting as
- 11:01Speaker 4: to whether or not we just get a future type
- 11:03Speaker 4: of chip development. You know, we've got the grocks for example,
- 11:06Speaker 4: that are backed by venture backing who have been looking
- 11:08Speaker 4: to ways in which we expand and have faster and
- 11:13Speaker 4: more efficient chips. You've also got you know, different players
- 11:17Speaker 4: out there thinking about not just the data that you
- 11:20Speaker 4: have to train, but then the inferencing that you do,
- 11:23Speaker 4: and that does that become a different type of conversation
- 11:25Speaker 4: around the technology and ultimately whether you need to have
- 11:28Speaker 4: more efficient chips within an energy source and an energy suck.
- 11:31Speaker 4: So I think so many people AMPI has been doing
- 11:33Speaker 4: things around that particular innovation of different types of chips. Eventually,
- 11:37Speaker 4: will people start to go to Galdhi and what Intel
- 11:40Speaker 4: has been providing. How much can AMD chip away in
- 11:44Speaker 4: terms of market share, in terms of the AI part
- 11:47Speaker 4: of the business as well. So there are so many
- 11:50Speaker 4: people and analysts and investors that are looking at distributing.
- 11:54Speaker 5: Some of their bets.
- 11:55Speaker 4: I'm sure, but for now in video has been the
- 11:57Speaker 4: only game in town and certainly the easiest one to
- 11:59Speaker 4: back in terms of up into the right Coon.
- 12:01Speaker 3: Jent, I want to bring you back in here looking
- 12:03Speaker 3: at our live blog. Ian King, who follows the semiconductor
- 12:06Speaker 3: space and video as well. He says, one question analyst
- 12:09Speaker 3: will have when the conference call begins, what's happening in
- 12:11Speaker 3: networking sales? And that business slid sequentially dropping by that
- 12:16Speaker 3: five hundred million dollars and videos acquired. Networking tech has
- 12:19Speaker 3: faced opposition from many rivals, some of which argue for
- 12:22Speaker 3: an industry standard approach rather than a reliance on and
- 12:24Speaker 3: vidious proprietary technology. Weigh in on that, yeah, I.
- 12:28Speaker 6: Mean, look, we have identified since last year that networking
- 12:32Speaker 6: in AI servers is going to be sort of the
- 12:34Speaker 6: next wave of growth, especially in terms of where the
- 12:37Speaker 6: dollars spend. The dollars go beyond just accelerators. So I mean,
- 12:42Speaker 6: until now in media, if you look at the market
- 12:45Speaker 6: for the first Hopper series, right, they had this advantage
- 12:48Speaker 6: of shipping their own proprietary networking gear, which customers had
- 12:51Speaker 6: no other option but to just buy that. So two things, right,
- 12:54Speaker 6: They got all the dollars, but they also got great
- 12:56Speaker 6: profit margins because they could really charge whatever they wanted. Now,
- 13:00Speaker 6: the competition there is increasing. Customers want to move to Ethernet,
- 13:05Speaker 6: which again Nvidia has started offering and starting from the
- 13:08Speaker 6: black Bell series. So we are going to see that
- 13:10Speaker 6: Ethernet revenue also increase for Nvidia, But when you compare
- 13:13Speaker 6: it from perchip dollar perspective, it's still less. We still
- 13:18Speaker 6: think positive for Nvidia's networking revenue share going forward, but
- 13:24Speaker 6: there will be a lot more competition there. It won't
- 13:26Speaker 6: be just one company taking everything in your area.
- 13:29Speaker 3: That's a really good point, right, And I do think about,
- 13:31Speaker 3: you know, and Videa's really had this world to its
- 13:32Speaker 3: own for a while, and you think about increasingly kind
- 13:36Speaker 3: of what's going on in the future as there's more competition.
- 13:39Speaker 3: YouTube Dynamic Duo, thank you so much. Your insight really
- 13:44Speaker 3: so important to breaking down these results from Nvidia. Bloomberg
- 13:47Speaker 3: Technology co host Caroline Hidketcher at eleven am Wall Street
- 13:50Speaker 3: Time on Bloomberg Television for Bloomberg Tech and of course
- 13:53Speaker 3: our thanks to ku Joan Sabani of our Bloomberg Intelligence team.
- 13:56Speaker 3: He's a senior semiconductor analyst. So again, some great insight
- 13:59Speaker 3: we'll watch for some of you research. Let's continue our conversations.
- 14:03Speaker 3: Bloomberg News Equities reporter at Ryan Lostelico with us. He
- 14:06Speaker 3: has been writing about it and kind of you know,
- 14:09Speaker 3: talking about markets bracing for what we might get from Nvidia.
- 14:12Speaker 3: He joins us from Chicago. Also with us is our
- 14:14Speaker 3: own Red Brown, who follows the earning season and sets
- 14:17Speaker 3: us up. Bloomberg News Earnings reporter. He's back in New
- 14:19Speaker 3: York City. Ryan, come on in on this your report.
- 14:22Speaker 3: Ahead of the release in Nvidia, traders bracing for a
- 14:25Speaker 3: potential three hundred billion dollar earnings move. It was down
- 14:29Speaker 3: more than four percent though initially.
- 14:30Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I don't think it would be all that
- 14:32Speaker 1: surprising to see the stock really take some swings from
- 14:34Speaker 1: where it's trading right now. I mean, this is not
- 14:37Speaker 1: a huge move, especially not for our company as viollatile
- 14:39Speaker 1: as Nvidia is. Just to put it in context. Palo
- 14:42Speaker 1: Alto also reported that stock is at about five percent
- 14:44Speaker 1: and after hours trading in video is obviously much bigger,
- 14:48Speaker 1: but you know, not a huge move by their standard.
- 14:50Speaker 2: I like that Ryan's out here talking about Pallelt the networks.
- 14:53Speaker 2: It's a good well there is Look, there are other
- 14:56Speaker 2: companies out.
- 14:56Speaker 3: There, no question, but listen, we're gonna get you in
- 15:00Speaker 3: just a moment. But Ryan, I mean, it's been so
- 15:03Speaker 3: important in terms of market momentum, right, Like, give us
- 15:05Speaker 3: some of that context. We talk about it all. We've
- 15:07Speaker 3: talked about the mag seven, but when it comes to
- 15:10Speaker 3: momentum that aid this is a big one.
- 15:12Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 15:12Speaker 1: Oh absolutely. The stock is almost tripled this year. It's
- 15:15Speaker 1: added more than two trillion in market capitalization. Like you mentioned,
- 15:18Speaker 1: it's the biggest stock in the world. You know, We've
- 15:20Speaker 1: had plenty of analysts come out and say this is
- 15:22Speaker 1: more important than the FED, this is more important than
- 15:24Speaker 1: inflation data. This is the key report for Wall Street
- 15:27Speaker 1: this week, if not this month. So it's obviously very significant.
- 15:30Speaker 1: I do think, you know, we just got the numbers.
- 15:32Speaker 1: People are still digesting the report. We are still waiting
- 15:34Speaker 1: on the conference call. It's likely we're going to get
- 15:36Speaker 1: a bigger move maybe, you know, once we get you know,
- 15:39Speaker 1: full details, once we hear from you know, the management
- 15:41Speaker 1: team once people get a little bit more context for this.
- 15:44Speaker 1: But this is certainly not, you know, a sky is
- 15:46Speaker 1: falling type report. It's falling short of some of the
- 15:48Speaker 1: most optimistic expectations. But you know, people just got very
- 15:51Speaker 1: used to forecasts that are just, you know, billions dollars
- 15:54Speaker 1: above the consensus.
- 15:55Speaker 3: Carmen Ryanick here, stocks reporter on our live blog, digging
- 15:58Speaker 3: into the plus or minus two percent on the revenue
- 16:00Speaker 3: outlook that we got from Video a little math, doing
- 16:03Speaker 3: some quick math, it means and Video expects fourth quarter
- 16:05Speaker 3: revenue between thirty six points seventy five billion and thirty
- 16:08Speaker 3: eight point twenty five billion. The average analyst estimate was
- 16:10Speaker 3: thirty seven point one billion. So if it's on the
- 16:13Speaker 3: minus two percent, it would fall short of expectations. And
- 16:16Speaker 3: I think that's why you are seeing investors, at least
- 16:18Speaker 3: in the aftermarket, wanting a little bit more color or
- 16:21Speaker 3: commentary around this.
- 16:23Speaker 2: Okay, so Red Brown, come on in here, because you've
- 16:24Speaker 2: got your eye on what's going on after hours and
- 16:27Speaker 2: Video shares down about two percent? Is that what it is?
- 16:30Speaker 2: Is that concern around that plus or minus two percent?
- 16:33Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it kind of has to be the
- 16:36Speaker 7: main focus for everybody right now, you know sound it
- 16:40Speaker 7: felt like analysts maybe weren't as kind of euphoric heading
- 16:43Speaker 7: into this report. Things definitely war more tempered, So I
- 16:45Speaker 7: guess it isn't that much of a surprise to see,
- 16:48Speaker 7: you know, stock kind of trading a little bit less
- 16:51Speaker 7: volatile than it has in recent quarters. I was also
- 16:53Speaker 7: just looking at some of the customers because we don't
- 16:56Speaker 7: read Ryan's point just how important this is for the
- 17:00Speaker 7: wider market. And you know, Microsoft and Meta, two of
- 17:03Speaker 7: their biggest customers, both not really reacting as well.
- 17:05Speaker 3: So so what are you read watching out for? Listen,
- 17:09Speaker 3: you are with us throughout the whole earning season. It's
- 17:12Speaker 3: been it feels like a long one, you know. But
- 17:15Speaker 3: here we are with Nvidia, which is such a huge
- 17:17Speaker 3: one in terms of the reporting season, and you know
- 17:20Speaker 3: what we get from Nvideo. But you know, how are
- 17:22Speaker 3: you thinking about it as we were kind of reporting
- 17:24Speaker 3: into it and now we are on the other side,
- 17:26Speaker 3: and there's still some questions to be had that will
- 17:28Speaker 3: hopefully play it on the analyst call, but you know,
- 17:32Speaker 3: walk us through it in an earning season, you know
- 17:34Speaker 3: how this kind of fits in, especially against some of
- 17:37Speaker 3: those MAGS seven, those very important big tech names.
- 17:40Speaker 7: I think one thing that I'm looking at for and
- 17:43Speaker 7: Vidia specifically and kind of how it fits into the
- 17:45Speaker 7: wider landscape is actually the R and D spending. So
- 17:48Speaker 7: if we look and actually grow forty eight percent, if
- 17:50Speaker 7: you compare that to their peers, super Micro forty five
- 17:53Speaker 7: percent up this quarter, Broadcom jump seventy five percent. So
- 17:58Speaker 7: when we kind of start to dig in beyond on
- 18:00Speaker 7: just the top line numbers, I think a kind of
- 18:03Speaker 7: an interesting dynamic is playing out there in video is
- 18:05Speaker 7: kind of really expending hand over fist to keep up
- 18:08Speaker 7: or to kind of continue to have their their lead
- 18:11Speaker 7: in this race, And I think it really helps when
- 18:14Speaker 7: you can, you know, double your revenue every quarter as well.
- 18:16Speaker 7: That there's that spending three billion dollars on R and
- 18:19Speaker 7: D is a little bit easier than it is for
- 18:22Speaker 7: a company like Broadcom, which is actually you know, the
- 18:24Speaker 7: percentage wise, the margin that they're spending is actually much higher,
- 18:28Speaker 7: so that race they are kind of still a distant
- 18:32Speaker 7: second compared to in videos, so trying to can maintain
- 18:36Speaker 7: that lead that they have in the air space.
- 18:38Speaker 2: Hey, Ryan, what about when it comes to blackwell and
- 18:42Speaker 2: demand around Blackwell. To what extent is that? The question
- 18:45Speaker 2: on the call later it went from insane to incredible.
- 18:49Speaker 2: As Caroline Hyde pointed out to us, how are you
- 18:51Speaker 2: thinking about it?
- 18:52Speaker 7: Yeah?
- 18:52Speaker 1: Is that a deceleration to go from insane to incredible?
- 18:54Speaker 1: I mean I think, you know, in general demand, I
- 18:57Speaker 1: think it is.
- 18:58Speaker 3: You tell me, I think it is insane to incredible.
- 19:01Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a declation.
- 19:02Speaker 3: Yeah, we say incredible a lot. We throw that word around.
- 19:05Speaker 3: When you say insane, that's like a whole other level.
- 19:08Speaker 1: Yeah, fair enough. Obviously, you know, people continue to focus
- 19:11Speaker 1: on supply. There have been some you know, production hiccups here.
- 19:14Speaker 1: Like I said before, people are focused very much on
- 19:16Speaker 1: you know, pricing and margins for Blackwell. So all these
- 19:19Speaker 1: things together, you know, this remains like a point of
- 19:21Speaker 1: real focus for investors, even kind of beyond just sort
- 19:24Speaker 1: of the headline numbers of the forecast and so forth.
- 19:26Speaker 3: Guys, thank you so much. Busy afternoon, of course. Bloomberg
- 19:30Speaker 3: News Earnings reporter Red Brown out there in New York City.
- 19:32Speaker 3: Ryan Lostelica in Chicago. He's Bloomberg News Equities reporter