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Saturday BEST BETS | Oversimplify | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason | 8/15/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: The black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mist three teen Parlette turned
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name, steal me
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: load up and me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now what's up? Bird, buddy? It's towed back with you.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: Toad's still sports. Saturday, August fifteenth, We're still treading water.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: It was a one one in one day on the
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: show yesterday, probably should have been two and one. We
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: did get an easy win with the under in Miami
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: and Cincinnati and baseball first five under. I think it
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: was no score at the end of five. It was
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: an extremely low scoring game. Both pitchers are good. Full
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: game was an under as well. Obviously. I think it
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: was a one nothing Miami win, so both pitchers pitch
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: really deep into that game. I'm pretty sure. So that
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: went well. Kansas City looked like it was gonna be
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: a winner, and they won the full game and they
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: pushed the first five. It is so frustrating, dude, Like,
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: you can't bank on their bullpens. You can't go full
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: game with Kansas City. Anaheims bullpen is also bad. And
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: that's how it worked out. Kansas City wound up winning
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: a close game, but end of five it was five
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: to five. Kansas City blew a three nothing lead, and
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: the third inning in that game it looked like it
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: was gonna be good. I'm like, all right, as long
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: as Lugo can hold a three run lead here for
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: two more innings against a bad offense, and no, he
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: can't even do that. He actually gave up four runs
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: in the bottom of the third, so Kansas City was
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: actually losing. After they were winning three nothing, they're down
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: four to three, and then they scored two runs, so
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: then they're up five to four, which I think they
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: were up five to four in the bottom of the
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: fifth too, and I'm like, okay, just hold you're up
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: five to four bottom of the fifth and they give
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: up one, so they blew it again. Yeah great, and
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: then yeah, I don't know what to say about WNBA
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: were losing on the season of the WNBA, and I'm
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: not gonna have a winning season in every sport in
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: every season. That is the goal, and I'm gonna do
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: it in the majority of sports. It's bad, dude. Like,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: I don't think it was the wrong play to make.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Like I know there were professionals that were strongly agreeing
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: with that one. The line went up to like three
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: to three and a half, but Seattle was way behind,
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: and then they made a huge comeback. They got really
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: close to possibly being able to win that game. It
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: didn't happen. They lost I think by four maybe, but
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: that was because they intentionally fouled again at the end.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: They were within one point late, so the hope at
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: that point was sending it into overtime. That's like your
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: only hope at that point. If you look at what happened,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Seattle just shot terribly. Like they wound up with more
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: field goal attempts in the games, so it's not like
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: they didn't have Like based on this statistics, it looks
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: like they could have won that game. I'm not saying
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: they should have, you know, I don't think it was
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: like a misleading result really or anything. I think it
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: was a pretty close game, and the final score was close,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: not enough to cover as a favorite, of course, but
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Seattle shot horribly in that game. They did have more
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: field goal attempts. So I don't know what else to say.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Let's get into this crap here. Whatever to one Kansas City? Well,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: did you want Seth Lugo to stay out there? I mean,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know whoever they brought in give up one run,
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: but Lugo might have given up more than that. I
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: have no idea. I don't trust any of Kansas City's pitchers.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: I just trusted Lugo more than whatever the hell of
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Anaheim was doing in that game. Grayson Rodriguez, I guess
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: I think Rodriguez didn't. I mean, I think Rodriguez lasted
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: longer than Lugo. He's younger man, he's got more stamina.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: All right, baseball, we have some afternoon baseball. I'm gonna
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: have a play right away. I have two plays today.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: They're both baseball sides. And I'm just I'm simplifying this.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: I'm just looking at the pitching matchups. I'm going with
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: what I think with the pitching matchups here, and the
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: money doesn't agree with me on either one. Great, let's
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: have an zero to two day. Then the professionals don't
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: agree with me. Okay, fine, I haven't put the banners
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: in yet, so hang on. First game up is going
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: to be. You could probably tell already if you'll see
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup. We're gonna take the Detroit Tigers on
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: the money line minus one thirty four. You might have
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: to pay a little bit more. I think I got
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: it around my Let me actually let me double check.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: Let me see what I got the number at here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: I think it's somewhere in this range. Yeah, that's exactly
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: what it is, all right, Yeah, let me actually let
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: me put the other banner in now so I don't
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: forget later. I have one other play. It's one of
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: the later games. Let me see. Yes, But I like
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Detroit here. I mean, maybe it seems obvious based on
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching, but I think we're taking a pitcher
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: that I think is under the radar, that people still
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: don't really know who he is, against a pitcher that
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: looks better than he really is. So that's what we're
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: gonna do here. Detroit's also in a bounced back spot.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: They lost yesterday to the White Sox. Here we're fading
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: the White Sox here, Detroit staying at home for this.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Detroit's been pretty hot since the trade deadline. Even though
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: they got rid of School Bowl and whatever, they're still
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: trying to get into the playoffs. I think they might
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: actually be in the last wildcard spot right now. I'm
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: not sure, even though they're below five hundred. As I
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: pointed out, Detroit has the best run different or at
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: least they did, in the entire American League. And if
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: they don't have it right now, they're really close. White
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Sox have a decent one as well, but Detroit one
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: of the best in the American League. So Detroit I
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: think is better than the record looks. White Sox I
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: think are worse than the record looks. And I think
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get motivation out of Detroit here because they're
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: three and a half games behind the Chicago I still
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: think Detroit has a decent chance to take this division.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: They're good at home, and this looks like the spot
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: to do it. Man bullpen, you suggested it was pretty similar,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: but I think Detroit might have a slight bullpen advantage here.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: White Sox use four guys out of the bullpen Detroit
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: used three, but basically long relief guys, so they're better.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: Relief pitchers are all available here. I'm fine with going
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: full game on this. Well, we'll go with the starting
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: pitching and the bullpen's here Detroit's fourteenth, White Sox fifteenth.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: But I think it is a slight advantage for Detroit there,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: although if you wanted to take Detroit in the first
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: five you could do that as well. I think you'll
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: be focusing on the starting pitching advantage they have if
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: you do that. I think that's fine as well, which
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: might be the biggest advantage they have here, but you'll
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: have to probably pay a little bit more for it.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: So I'm fine with doing it this way. I think
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: they will be motivated to get the win here. The
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: offenses are pretty closely ranked here, White Sox fifteenth, Detroit fourteenth.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: Oh wait, I'm looking at bullpens again. What am I saying?
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: I think the offenses are close to that though, tenth
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: and eleventh, White Sox tenth, Detroit eleventh. So I'm arranging
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: that by ops, I'm arranging bullpen by whip. Of course,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: we're gonna fade Anthony K here. Every kiss does not
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: begin with K. In this case, he's got a three
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: point nine to six ERA, but a one point three
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: four whip indicates that his ERA should be higher than
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: it is. He's also not as good on the road
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: four point eighty eight road ra. You'll get his overall
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: stats here. I mean, first of all, he's a journeyman
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: pitcher who just hasn't really done anything that's that spectacular
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: in Major League Baseball. And in fact, he only had
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: one season where his RAY was below five, and that
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: was because he only made one appearance in twenty twenty two.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: So when he makes multiple appearance as his ZRA is
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: above five every single time except for this year. Somehow,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: after two years not even in the sport at all,
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: or at least not in Major League Baseball, I should say, yeah,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: so I'm not liking what we're seeing here. Strikeout walk
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: ratio is still not good. It's below three. Strike out
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: rate is okay. But other than that, yeah, I'm not
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: really a fan of K. Here. He is okay, and
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: the hit department doesn't allow that many hits. His walk
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: rates a little bit high. His strikeout rate, like I
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: alluded to, his low, he doesn't strike anybody out and
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: against Detroit. His numbers are not particularly good, although they
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: don't have that many at bats against him. They only
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: have five hitters have faced him fourteen at bats, but
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: those guys have have been able to hit him for
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: a three point fifty seven average eight twenty nine ops
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: zero one strike out walk ratio. I know it's not
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: a big sample, but Kay is no mystery. You know,
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: he did have one start against Detroit earlier this year
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: and it was a mediocre start. And we're gonna back
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Troy Melton here, who is I think clearly the better
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: starter here, the younger guy with way more upside. He's
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: looked good since he's been in the majors. He's looked
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: really good this year. One point four to sixty r RA,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: point nine WHIP And while I don't think those numbers
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: are sustainable based on the fact that he's not like
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: a huge strikeout pitcher or anything like that, we don't
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: need him to be that good to win this game,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Just be better than Anthony
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: Ka pretty much. He's slightly worse at home with a
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: two point one homey RA, which is still fine. He's
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: still pitching well right now. Detroit, by the way, has
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: won his last seven starts, so that's a good sign.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: They've won ten of his last eleven as well, so yeah,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: they're winning almost all his starts. He's got an extremely
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, doesn't really walk anybody. Oh though, like
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: I said, he's not a huge strike up pitcher either,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: so his strikeout walk ratio is slightly below that threshold
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: I look for with three. But the rest of these
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: numbers look quite good to me. Strike ups per nine,
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: you know whatever, close to eight. That's not really that bad.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: And he's been good against the White Sox. They have
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: fifty one at bats against him, a one to fifty
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: seven average, five sixty five ops, ten to eight strikeout
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: walk ratio worris me a little bit. Everything else looks
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: really good here, though, I say, let's do it Detroit.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: I think they might be the better team here. People
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: won't think that because the record isn't as good. I
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: have no idea why the money is coming in against this, Like,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: is the public really playing Detroit here when they have
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: the lesser record? I mean maybe, I guess with Melton
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: versus k But kay, his numbers make him look better
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: than he actually is. So sixty three percent of the
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: tickets fifty two percent of the cash on Detroit. So
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: I'm going against the market. Read here, Detroit open minus
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: won sixty something. It dropped all the way into the
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: minus one thirties. Okay, if you're gonna give me the team,
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: and I think might be the better team with the
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: better starting pitcher in a bounce back spot at this price. Okay, fine,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: let's take Detroit on the money line, all right. Saint
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Louis and Chicago Cubs. Cubs won yesterday despite being in
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: a return home spot. They won three to nothing. And
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: who started that game for the Cubs. I can't it
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: was Clay Holmes, right, So I guess Holmes doing pretty well. Still,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: I guess over there this matchup looks like on the
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: surface it could be a lower scoring game, but I'm
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: not quite so sure that I would actually agree with that.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Cubs use three relief pitchers, yes, today they have the
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage here against the Cardinals will only use two.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: But the Cubs are the better bullpen. They're ranked eleventh.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Cardinals are where are they? Twenty first? Cubs are the
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: better offense by far, they're number three. Saint Louis is
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: twenty six, So the Cubs have a big advantage there.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Cubs are the better team, but you're gonna have to
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: pay a price for the Cubs if you want them.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is going with Michael McGreevy here, and Saint
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Louis is still gonna show up, you know, even though
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: the Cubs are fighting for playoff positioning whatever, Saint Louis
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: will at least try to play spoiler here even though
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: they are highly unlikely to make the playoffs. McGreevy has
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: been one of their more well I would say, I
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: don't know if I would say consistent, but he's I guess,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: one of their better pitchers, if you want to say that,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: although the advanced analytics guys can't stand him because he
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: keeps pitching pretty effectively, but he doesn't strike anybody out.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: Had a three point six four ERA one point two
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: to whip. Not bad. He's a little bit worse on
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: the road in some ways three point nine roady RA,
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: but not significantly worse. He's had a couple of outings
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: recently where he didn't go deep into the game or
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: he got bombed in one of those, and the one
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: that he got bombed, by the way was against the
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Cubs at home in Saint Louis, which is a more
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park, so that's probably not a good sign.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Although he pitched fairly well last time out against Colorado,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: but and his team has won his last two games
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: of four of his last six. But that start against
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: the Cubs was really bad in there. McGreevy might not
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: hold up against the Cubs this time either. He's got
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: a reasonably low hit rate here, it's not too bad.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really walk anybody. His strikeout rate is low,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: which is why advanced analytics guys hate him, but his
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio isn't too bad because he doesn't really
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: walk anybody either. Strike out per nine obviously is not
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: a high number, though his numbers against the Cubs are
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: very bad. Though it wasn't just that last start. The
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: cub have pretty much smashed this guy in sixty eight
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: at bats three eighty two average, one thousand and six
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: oh ps, seven to six strikeout walk ratio. I'm not
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: going to back McGreevy here. I can't do it. I mean,
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: I know the advanced analytics guys don't like him, and
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: I I hold back on that a little bit because
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: I look at his overall numbers and say, well, yeah,
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: he's not that bad, but the matchup looks pretty bad
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: for him. Here, Matthew Boyd is pitching for the Cubs.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: I think he is the better starter here. Three point
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: five ERA, one point two to two whip. He's been
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: bad at home, well, not bad, but he's been worse
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: at home four point five to four home ye RA,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: so he's a little bit more questionable at home. Looked
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: pretty good in his last couple of starts. I think
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: he wasn't really striking anybody out, which may be a
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: little bit of a concern. He's not really lying that
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: many runs for the most part here, but not really
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: striking anybody out. He's got a reasonably low hit rate here.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not too bad. Strikeout rate is kind
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: of low though. Like I said, he's missed a lot
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: of time with injuries this year, had a pretty good
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: season last year. The last two years he was good
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: with Cleveland and then with the Cubs last year. Overall,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: his strikeout, strike out walk ratio is still close to three,
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: which isn't too bad. Strike up per nine it's a
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: little bit lower than it has been in the past.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: It's in the sevens now, but I mean, I'm not
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: gonna say that's horrible. His numbers against Saint Louis. He's
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: going up against a weak line up here, and he
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: does do well against him in fifty two at bats
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: two thirty one average, six fifty six ohps. So the
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Cubs should have the edge throughout this game. I think
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: probably the Cubs are the right way to look here,
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: But the problem is the price, right Like you're looking
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: at a minus one seventy here or something on them.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: The price dropped a little bit from the opener. Eighty
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: two percent of the tickets, eighty nine percent of the
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: cash on the Cubs. Looks like they might be a
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: public side, but also with maybe professional agreement on their
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: side as well. I don't know, but I think if
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: you have if you play the Cubs, you basically are
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: gonna have to do minus one run line situations something
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: like that. Or I guess you could just take Boyd
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: out of the equation, because I'm not I'm not gonna
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: guarantee he's gonna pitch well here, you know what I mean.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: I think he should pitch okay, but he's not as
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: good at home, and if you want to take that
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: out of the equation. I think the more predictable thing
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: here is to just take the Cubs over their team total.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on the over. The Cubs crush
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: McGreevy usually, so they should have their way with every
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: pitcher they're gonna face from Saint Louis here. I would
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: think totals at nine and a half. If you want
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: the Cubs over their team total, they're gonna probably need
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: to get to six in this game, but they're certainly
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: capable of doing that, so that might be a way
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: to look at that game as well. Yankees in Toronto.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: I first looked at this and I'm like, yeah, this
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: is a complete mismatch in favor of the Yankees here
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: with one of their best pitchers or probably their best
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: pitcher on the mound against a bullpen game for Toronto,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: because Toronto's got all these injuries. Man, it was supposed
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: to be Jameson tie On coming up after the Red
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Sox couldn't hit his ass at all. Tyron's hurt, so
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: he's not pitching. Toronto's going with a full bullpen game here.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: And Toronto actually won the game yesterday three to one,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: and Y Savage has also heard. I think he's shut down,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: possibly for the season as well. So things are not
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: good for Toronto here. The Yankees should win this game,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: but the problem is the price is kind of insane.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: But they are in a bounce back spot with their
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: best pitcher on the mound here. Although there might be
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: some concerns with Schlitzler, which I'll talk about in a minute,
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: the Yankees do have a good bullpen. They used two
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday Toronto used three. Their
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen is okay. Yankees are number four here, but I
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: think they're the second best bullpen behind the Red Sox.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox have had issues recently, and I
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: guess I'll talk about that when I get to the
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. Toronto is a decent bullpen at seventeenth, but
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: not as good as the Yankees. Yankees are better offensively too,
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: even though they've been kind of bad without Aaron Judge
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: in the lineup. The rank fifteenth right now on the
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: course of the season, Toronto's still way worse at thirtieth.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Schlitler pitching for the Yankees. He's had a good season obviously.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Two point two to one e Ra point nine to
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: three whip. I think he's still the front runner for
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: the al side. Young He's been really good on the
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: road one point one Roady Ra was really good in
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: his last start at home, just shredded Atlanta with eleven
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: strikeouts in seven innings. Although the Yankees, believing or out,
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: have lost his last three starts, and only one of
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: them he was bad in, which was against Saint Louis.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: The other two it was not his fault at all.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: For Schlitler, though, the one problem is innings pitched here.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: He's a young guy, and I talk about this. When
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: you get around one hundred and fifty innings and he's
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: close to it, He's gonna reach that today most likely.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: You gotta start to worry a little bit that this
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: a pitcher that's not used to that might run out
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: of steam a little bit. But the fact that he
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: blew away eleven hitters last time out, it doesn't look
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: like he's fading yet. To me. He's got a low
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. We all
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: know all this strike out for nine or a strike
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: out walk racier are both really good. Nothing to really
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: dive into there. Numbers against Toronto are not actually good,
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: believe it or not, even this is not a good
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Toronto lineup, Like, I don't really see Schlitler doing that
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: badly here, but he has eighty one at bats against him,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: so they have a large sample size and they hit
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: three h nine off of him. Seven twenty nine oh
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: ps is a little low, so they haven't really hit
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: him for power, but they've hit him for contact sixteen
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: to eight strike out walk ratio as well. Yeah, I mean,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: oddly enough, it might be one of the more questionable
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: matchups for him. And then Bradon Fisher is listed as
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: a starter for Toronto, but he's only going to be
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: an opener, so I don't think I really have to
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: go into that. It's a bullpen game for Toronto here,
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: which I don't like. Obviously, the total is pretty low
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: here at seven and a half. I think you might
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: be able to play the over in this game. I mean,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It sounds kind of ridiculous though, because
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: neither offense has really been performing well. Fifty nine percent
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: of tickets seventy four percent of the cash on the under,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: so the money is coming in in the under. But
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: Schlitler doesn't have good matchup numbers here. I don't trust
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: the Toronto bullpen game. Not a lot of leeway here
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: with seven and a half teetering on seven. Although you know,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: I always talk about the oddsmakers when they've put a
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: low total out that they're telling you they think it's
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: gonna be a low scoring game. Obviously, so I don't
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: usually like to go over, but I would. I wouldn't
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: want to be on an under in this game. I
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: think it might wind up going over. And the Yankees
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: look like they're not getting the actual money here seventy
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: eight percent of tickets, only seventy percent of the cash
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: on them. They drop from like a minus one to
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: eighty opener down into the minus one seventy range here
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: or minus one sixties, so there looks like there's some
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: real money coming out of Toronto. I wouldn't do that.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's all about the price. I think the
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Yankees are still the way to probably look in this game.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how I would do it, though,
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: because you have to like make your own minus one
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: run line or something like that. With the Yankees, I
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: don't know if I love that idea though. They will
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: bat in all nine innings guaranteed because they're on the road.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: You could go Yankees over their team total, maybe take
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: the Yankees to score off of Toronto's bullpen game. But
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: it is possible Toronto's bullpen game doesn't do that bad
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: because their bullpen is at least okay, so maybe they'll
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: get some okay pitching out of that against the Yankees
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: lineup that has been struggling. So I don't I struggle
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: with this game. I don't think there's a great way
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: to attack it. Really. Obviously, it's not making my card,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you that. And I don't know my reaction
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: when I dug into it was still like, maybe an
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: over makes the most sense in that game, but I'm
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: really not gonna do it, obviously. Uh. Colorado at San Francisco.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: Colorado won again yesterday five to two. So Colorado I
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: think has won a few games here. I mean, these
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: are two teams that are going nowhere. They're playing out
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: the stretch here. It is a divisional matchup. Though Colorado
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: only used one relief pitcher yesterday, but their bullpen is
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: still ass San Francisco used four. I don't like their
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: bullpen either. Colorado twenty seven San Francisco twenty fifth. I
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: would avoid both bullpens in this game unless you're fading them,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: but fading them is avoiding them. Really, Colorado is the
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're fifth, the Giants are down in nineteenth.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Like I keep saying, the Giants are not actually a
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: legit offense, and they did trade some guys at the
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: trade deadline. On the surface, this looks like a major
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: pitching mismatch in favor of the Giants, but I actually
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: don't think it is. Believe it or not, Michael lorenz
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: And is pitching for Colorado. He's not good six point
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: eighty three ERA one point eight to eight whip really bad. However,
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: he's at least more serviceable on the road five point
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: zero nine Rodeo ra So he's a lot worse in
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: course field, which you can understand why he's been bad recently.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: Though he hasn't had a good start since the middle
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: of July. However, that start was against the Giants, and
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: it was in this stadium in San Francisco, so this
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: might be an okay matchup for him here, one of
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: the better matchups he could draw, though he still walked
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: too many guys in that one and that's been a
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: problem for him. He's got a lot of problems.
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: He allows way too many hits. His walk rate's not
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: very good. His strike up rate is not very good either.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: There's not a lot to like here except that this
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: might be an okay matchup for him. He's got a
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: really low strikeout walk ratio. None of this is good.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, we know this. His strike ups for nine
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: is pretty low. I mean it's one of the lowest
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: that he's posted. However, the Giants don't hit him that well.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: Twenty nine at bats two forty one average, six to
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: sixty eight ops, three to four strike out walk raceio.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: That's a bad ratio. But the rest of these numbers
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: are good. So Lorenzo might actually do okay here because
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: this matchup I think seems kind of like retrofitted for him,
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: almost where it's a more pitcher friendly park, week offense
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: and offense that doesn't do well against him, and he
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: was able to pitch well against them last time, so
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: he might be able to do that again. Logan Webb
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Giants, He's obviously the better pitcher overall.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: Like it's not even close. Three point five to ninety
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: r one point. Oh wait, whip Web is usually better
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: at home. This year, it's only been slight, like his
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: splits are just not significant this year. But he's been
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: good overall, and he is pitching well recently. He's allowed
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: very few runs recently. After he had a stretcher, he
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: wasn't good. And one of those starts where he wasn't
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: good was early July in course Field. He got massacred
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: in that game. He's actually not good against Colorado, which
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna show those numbers in a minute, So this
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: matchup might not be the best for him.
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: Even though he does pitch better at home throughout his career,
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: he's been pitching better recently, so I don't necessarily want
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: to fade him here. He's got a low hit rate,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: doesn't really walk many guys, doesn't really strike many guys
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: out either, though that's just been his thing for forever.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: But he walks relatively few people, so his strikeout walk
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: ratio is still all right. His strikeout rate has kind
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: of gone down over the years, which is maybe a
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: little bit concerning. What's most concerning to me, though, is
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: that Colorado hits him well. They have one hundred and
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: twelve at bats against some three point thirty nine average,
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: eight fifty ops, twenty four to five strike out walk ratio.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: That's a good ratio. But everything else here looks bad
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: and Jake McCarthy absolutely destroys him. So if you want
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: a player prop, you could be looking at that. Maybe
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: hits plus runs plus RBIs over is what I look
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: for when you find a batter that has a big
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: sample size. But like a lot of these guys hit
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: him well. Goodman McCarthy, Moniac Tovar, they all hit him well.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is not a good matchup for Logan Web.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: So yeah, believe it or not, I think the way
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: to play this game is to take Colorado in the
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: first five. I mean, I know it sounds insane. San
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: Francisco is a big favorite, and they kind of have
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: to be, because Colorado is not a good team. San
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Francisco as the better starter here on paper, and it's
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: really not even that close. Minus one seventy is about
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: the price here on San Francisco. They dropped a little
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: bit for minus one to eighty. They look public. Eighty
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: three percent of the tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: cash on them. Total is at seven and a half
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: total is low, but the money is coming in on
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: the over. I could see the argument for the over
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: because Web doesn't do well against Colorado. Lorenzen is really
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: somebody you can't bank on. But if you're gonna get
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: Colorado with this specific matchup as an underdog like this
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: in the first five, you could take Colorado like plus
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: the half run in the first five on the run line.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: Obviously avoid Colorado's bullpen even though their bullpen is rested.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: There's no way I could trust their bullpen. But yeah,
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: I think you might be able to get there with
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Colorado in the first five based on the specific matchups.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: Only here. I still don't want to do it because
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: I just I'm like, oh my god, I'm really gonna
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: back like the way, way way worst pitcher. But the
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers. Maybe I'm weighing the match number two heavily
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: with that lean. I mean, it's not a play for me,
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: but I think that's how I would do it. Is
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: Colorado in the first five on the run line. All right,
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Washington and the Mets. This is a Fox Sports one game.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: This is the last of the afternoon games here. Mets
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: won yesterday four to one. Mets have been playing okay
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: baseball since the All Star break, or I mean, actually yeah,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: kind of since the but since the kind of since
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: the All Star break, but since the trade deadline. Mets
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: they do have the better bullpen here. These four guys
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday. Washington on needs two. But
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: I'll give the Mets the bullpen edge here. They're ranked
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: ninth in bullpen. Washington is not good at twenty six,
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: so they Mets have the edge there. Washington has the
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're tied for the number one offense with
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers right now. The Mets are number twenty five,
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: so that's what you get. Washington good hitting, bad pitching,
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Mets generally kind of bad hitting. It would ish pitching
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: this game, though, I mean, I don't really trust the
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: pitching at all in this game. But it's my enemy
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: Brad Lord on the mound for Washington. It's like every
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: time I try to fade this guy, he does well,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: even though he's only gonna be an opener here. And
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: by the way, I should have mentioned as far as
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: these openers like Toronto, if you're gonna play the Yankees
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: and Blue Jay's game, I would pick Schlittler must start
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: when you pick your when you play the game here.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: But I would not pick a Toronto starter because it's
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: not guaranteed it'll be Fisher, but it's you know it's
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: gonna be a Toronto bullpen game. So that's the way
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: I would play that one. This one, I would say
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: the same thing with Washington. Actually, I would just play
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: action on this one, because you don't really know. Washington
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: is likely to have Lord open and then they're gonna
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: go with the bullpen game here. I'm almost positive about
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: that because they traded Zach Lateel away and they designated
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: a Micholas for assignments. They don't have either of those
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: guys anymore, so I think it is a bullpen game
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: for Washington. The Mets have put an opener in front
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: of Sean Mania multi times, so they might do that again.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: So although he's been starting recently, so I think he
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: will start. But if you want to play this game
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: and make sure that your bet counts and the pitching matchup,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: you pretty much know what it's gonna be, except that
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: there might just be guys coming in in front of
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: these guys or whatever. Action is probably how you should
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: play this game. But Brad Lord, man, I can't figure
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: him out because I don't think he's good. But his
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: numbers look all right this year three point seven to
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: nine are ra one point one eight win. But he's
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: only going to be an opener here. He is way
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: better on the road, which is interesting. He went to
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: almost three innings last time out, and that was a
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: game where I had the over and it didn't get there.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: And it was because Lord pitched pretty well against Cincinnati.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: He might pitch well here. I mean he pitched well,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: but then Washington's bullpen actually was really good behind him.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know how that happened. Like do you really
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: think do you expect Washington's bullpen to have a clean
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: game through like six and third innings? I mean, come on, man,
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: and all we needed was one more run in that
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: game aim to get it to go over. It's I
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: think it's ridiculous. Lord has been mediocre against the Mets,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: but I just don't think it matters that much. I
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: just think when you handicap this, I think you're basically
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: you're saying we're gonna get washing Its bullpen for a
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: huge chunk of this game. So that's really the handicap
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: here and then Sean Mania pitching for the Mets. He
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: is probably gonna go start his workload here. He's had
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: a mediocre season four point one to three RA, one
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: point three to two whip. Some of this was coming
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen. His home road splits are very insignificant.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: He's not really better or worse either way. He was
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: really good last time out at Pittsburgh, which is really
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: impressive because they're a really good home offense and he
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: destroyed them. He went seven innings, allowed one run on
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: a solo home run. He had eleven strikeouts and no walks.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: That's crazy, dude. It's like Manaia all of a sudden
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: was ten years younger. Is he gonna be able to
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: do that again? Probably not. But he's pitched pretty well recently.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Other than he's had some command issues a little bit,
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: which has been concern with him throughout his entire career.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: But he's pitching better right now. His team is one
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: of his last three outings. He's pitching pretty well against
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: some good offenses in here, Dodgers, Atlanta, Pittsburgh. Like I said, so,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: Mania is kind of in good form right now. Those
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: hit rate is almost one per inning, which is very mediocre.
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: Walk rate is okay, so usually his walk rate is higher.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: He's kind of fixed his command, but he's become a
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: little bit more hittable instead. His strikeout rate is actually good.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: It's above above one per inning, above nine per nine.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: He's only right at three for his strikeout walk ratio though,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: but that's right on that threshold, and then he's right
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: at nine per nine for strikeouts, so he's he's not
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: that bad. However, he's not good against Washington. In sixty
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: at bats three seventeen average eight forty five ops, fifteen
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: to five strike out walk ratio. You might be able
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: to tell where I'm going with this. I think over
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: is probably the way to play this game. I don't
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: really want to do it because Lord seems to always
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: beat me when I try to fade, and Manaia is
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: in really good form right now. But maybe coming up
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: that good performance, maybe you should worry about Mania a
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: little bit coming into this Sothough he's a veteran, so
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna matter that much, but his
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: numbers are not good against Washington. Yeah, I think there
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: are more things that point towards an over than an
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: under here, and I think that is the I don't
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: really have a good opinion on the side, so I
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: think that is how I would look. Here is over.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: We got fifty six percent of tickets on the under,
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: fifty eight percent of the cash on the over. The
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: total is at eight, so it's a pretty reasonable total. Here.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: It's kind of on the lower side, which bories me
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: a little bit about the over. But when it's in
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: eight eight and a half range, I think playing an
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: over or an under is viable, you know what I mean.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: It all depends on how you handicap the matchup and
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: whatever as well. The money is back in Washington here
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: as well. Sixty four percent of tickets on the Mets,
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: seventy seven percent of the cash on Washington. I don't
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: see it, but I think if you're gonna do it,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: I think you should probably back Washington in the first
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: five only because I would try to back them early
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: and avoid as much of their pullpen as possible. You
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: might be able to do something like some books offer,
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: like a first three inning type of thing or something
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: like that. I don't know. I mean, I don't do
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: that shit. I don't get that granular with it. Because
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: it's just I don't know. I think it's just stupid,
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: because it's you're giving yourself too small of a sample
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: size for your handicapped to really play out, which is
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: why I also don't like the run in the first
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: inning or no run in the first inning? The what
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: is it eurofie and neurfy I don't do that shit
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: because it's just you're gambling on a fluke basically, So yeah,
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: I don't get it anyway. Over would be min lean
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: in that game, and the Mets are favored at about
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: minus one minus one forty or so, which seems kind
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: of crazy, right, I'm it seems kind of crazy to
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: me that Washington's getting the actual professional money, Like why
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: would the Mets be favored? You would think that the
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: public would play Washington here, right, because doesn't Washington have
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: the better record and they certainly have the better offense
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: and that's what the public looks for. So why would
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: the public not want to take Washington as an underdog here?
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Like, it almost looks too
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: easy to take Washington as an underdog. It looks like
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: one of those misleading lines from the books that's kind
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: of signaling to you they think the Mets are gonna
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: win this game, and you know, I mean Mania has
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: bad numbers against Washington though, so that that would be
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: my concern. That again, I like the over. I think
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: I'm just talking about this game too much. But I
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: don't know. I can't figure out the side money is
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: saying Washington. But I don't know, man. I mean maybe
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: I even preferm an eye over a bullpen game. But
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: I mean maybe that's my old school nature just hating
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: the bullpen games. Mister Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: out all right, Baltimore. Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay lost yesterday
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: and we didn't really know who the starters were going
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: to be in that game. But I did say you
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: could just kind of take a blind shot on the Orioles.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: That was my That was my lean in that game.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: And it was entirely because Tampa Bay was returning home
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: from a road trip and they got caught. They were
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: traveling across country. It was a bad spot for them
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: returning home, distracted spot. They lost. The Orioles got up
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: for the game. I think because it's a division rival,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: you know you're gonna get up for it. Now. Normally
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: I would say it's a bounced back spot for Tampa
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Bay because when you have a bad game, when you
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: return home like that, a lot of times you're now
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: adjustin in the next game, you're focused, you get ready
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: to go, you play better in the next game. My
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: problem with that is Tampa Bay lost a nine game
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: win streak with that loss. And one of the other
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: things I say is that when a team loses a
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: long wind streak, a lot of times they'll lose the
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: same game twice effectively, and they'll they'll be hung over
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: coming into the next game because it's like that momentum
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: just completely stops and then you get you know, it's
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: like you slam on your brakes basically and you get
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: ejected through your windshield, you know what I mean? These
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: these Tampa Bay guys, maybe maybe they're not wearing seat belts.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know, so I would say that. So there
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: are some indicators towards Tampa that you but there's some
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: other indicators against them. Situationally, Tampa has the higher ranked bullpenal.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: I think the bullpen's are somewhat close. Tampa did use
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys yesterday. They used six guys out
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday. Baltimore used a bunch of I
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: think it was an extra it was it an extra
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: inning game? I don't know. Baltimore looks like they used five.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Let me see, No, the only extra inning game was
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Houston Seattle. I don't know, but a lot of bullpen
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: usage in that Baltimore Tampa game yesterday. Anyway, I think
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: maybe at least one of the teams was kind of
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: going with a bullpen game. I think maybe they both did.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay number two in bullpenal. I don't think they're
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: that good, but they're probably they're I would say they're
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: in the top half of bullpen's. Baltimore, where are they
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: at their thirteenth? Yeah, I think they're about a mediocre bullpen.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: Tampa's better, but only slightly. Tampa is the better offense
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: the rank sixth Baltimore is. Where are they? I don't
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: even see them? What the hell? Seventeenth? All right? All right?
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Kyle Bradish just pitching for Baltimore. I don't think he's
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: that bad three point six to ninety array, although his
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: whip isn't really that good one point three four. He's
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: been worse on the road three point nine to nine
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Roadie Ray, But what's more concerning is the two ninety
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: two opponent batting average on the road, So I don't
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: really know if I necessarily want to back him on
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: the road. He's he was good in his last start
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: against Texas. He was kind of struggling a couple starts
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: before that. He was good for a few starts in
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: July before that, though, so he's been kind of off
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: and on, So you got to kind of figure out
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: is he informed right now or not. Maybe he is
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: because his last start against Texas was good. He's got
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: a reasonably low hit rate here. His walks are the
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: main issue. The walks are way too high. Strike out
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: rate is okay, so overall, I think he's a guy
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: that's got some talent. But his strike out walk ratio
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: is way down this year because his walks have been awful.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: So he's he's got to figure that out. His strike
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: out rates decent, although that's gone down a little bit
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: as well. Actually from some of what he's done in
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: the past, he's been decent against Tampa Bay and seventy
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: five at bats two forty average, seven to thirteen ops,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: eighteen to eight strike a walk ratio that's not too bad.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: Ian Seymour is listed for Tampa Bay. But I will say,
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: if you're gonna play this game Tampa Bay, they might
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: put an opener in front of Seymour. They've done it
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: multiple times, so I would say you picked Bradish must start.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: Don't pick a starter for Tampa Bay because I think
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: you know Seymour is gonna be in the game. It's
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: just a matter of whether or not he's going to
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: pitch the first inning as well or not. Seymour has
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: been alright. A four point oh eighty RA one point
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: one to three whip is pretty good. He's been good
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: at home for the most part. Three point fifty or
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: three point five era at home, I should say one
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: eighty four upon a batting average at home is really good.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: He's been good recently. A lot of strikeouts here, not
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: along a lot of runs, so he's back in form
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: right now. It seems he's got a low hit rate
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: on the season, although remember a lot of this was
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: him pitching out of the bullpen early in the season.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: And he might have some opener appearances too. I'm not sure.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: I think they've kind of used them in a bunch
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: of different ways. He doesn't really walk that many guys,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: which is good, and his strike up rate is actually
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: pretty high, so his numbers are actually pretty good here
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: across the board, strike out walk ratio looks pretty good.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: It's above three. He's got to strike out for nine
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: above ten, which is pretty good. And his numbers against
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: Baltimore are good in twenty seven of bats one to
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: eighty five, average allowed, five thirty eight ohps, seven to
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: two strike out walk ratio. I think first five under
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: probably is the way that I would do this. I
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: don't I mean, normally I would say full game under.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: The problem is the because I don't think these bullpens
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: are that bad, but the problem is the bullpen usage
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: yesterday was pretty bad. So I think I would go
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: first five under. Here the total is low with seven
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: and a half, and that's maybe kind of a problem
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: because it means if you're gonna go first five and
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: exclude exclude the bullpens, you're gonna be looking at like
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: a three and a half, which you know, I mean
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: that that's really on the razor's edge there, and I
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: don't really love it, but I think that is how
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: I would play this. Probably money is backing the over, though,
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of tickets on the over, sixty four
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over. But yeah, I
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: probably prefer the under. Like I said in the first five,
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: if you wanted to go full game, I guess you
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: could do that and you get under that hook of
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. You just got to worry about
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: the bullpens being a little bit overworked, which is maybe
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: kind of an issue here, although Tampa's is the better
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: bullpen and they're the one that Seymour work, so I
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: don't know if that is more of a positive or
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: a negative. Really. Tampa is also the public side here,
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of the tickets, seventy six percent of the
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: cash on them. Looks like they're kind of dropping from
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: minus one to fifty down into the minus one forty
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: range here. I could see the argument for Baltimore, but
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: it would be mostly situational, right. It would basically be
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: you're playing against Tampa losing their winning streak, you know
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: what I mean. That would be the main reason to
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: play Baltimore here. I don't think i'd want to go
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: against Seymour though not Seymour skinner, uh, but yeah, you know,
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: I'm I mean, I don't think I have anything else
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: to say about it, but yeah, I mean, Seymour has
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: the better matchup numbers here, and I think he is
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: actually probably the better pitcher as well. And he's still
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: fairly young too, so he might wind up just being
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: a starter at some point, or maybe maybe that's already happening.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe he will just start this game. Whatever, But I
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: think I would go, yeah, first five under, and I
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: would take Bradish must start. But don't pick a Tampa
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: Bay starter because it will be Seymour in the game.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: It's just he'll either start the game or he'll come
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: in the second inning basically, and then go from there.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: And if he comes into the second inning, you'll still
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: get him for the remainder of those first five innings.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Most likely Miami had Cincinnati. I think I said Miami
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: won the first game. I misspoke. Cincinnati won yesterday even
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: though they were in a return home spot. We got
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: the first five undercorrect in that game very easily. The
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: starting pitching was awesome in that game yesterday, Cincinnati with
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: a one nothing win in a return home spot, which
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: is kind of crazy this pitching match period. Yeah, I'm
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: not gonna go under in this game. I'll tell you that,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: and perhaps, uh the opposite might be my lean in
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: this game. Cincinnati used two relief pitchers yesterday. I do
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: not like their bullpen, as you know, Miami only used one,
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: so the bullpen's arrested. Miami's an okay bullpen the rank six,
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: which I think is overrating them, but they're not bad.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati is not very good. They're twenty fourth, so I
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: would avoid at least Cincinnati's bullpen here. Miami is twelfth
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: in offense. They're better than Cincinnati, who was twenty fourth,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: which is not good. Obviously. Ryan Gusto, however, is getting
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: the start from Miami, and I think if we're gonna
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: play this game, you should probably pick Singer. Must start
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: on the side of Cincinnati. Don't pick a starter from
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: Miami because they might put an opener in front of Gusto,
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: but it'll be him with the majority of the work
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: for the first half of this game or so. He's
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: not great four point seven eighty Ra one point three
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: to three Whip. He's not good on the road five
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: point oh one Rody Ra. His opponent batting average is
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: much worse on the road as well. He didn't pitch
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: that well last time out at home against Anaheim like
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: he just had a shortened start there. I guess he
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: was good enough that his team still won the game,
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. It was against a bad offense.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: And at Homer he's better, although on the road last
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: time he was actually good against Atlanta, but prior to
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: that he was not pitching well. I don't think he's
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: a good pitcher, so I would not trust him here.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate. Walk rate is okay,
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: strike got rate is actually okay, but he's very hittable man.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: Strike out walk ratio isn't too bad, as I just
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: alluded to. Strike out rate not horrible, but still he's
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: just he's hittable man. He's not good enough in my opinion.
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: And Brady Singer on the other side of Cincinnati, he
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: hasn't been great. Four point sixty six R, one point
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: four to three whip is quite bad. Indicates that his
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: R should be higher than it is, although he is
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: better at home three point five to three homey ra.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: Even though this is a hitter front the ballpark, he's
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: definitely pitched better in this stadium this year, and he's
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: been in better form for the most part. Recently, since
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: the beginning of July, he's had basically like one bad
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: start in here, and the rest of his starts have
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: been pretty much all quality, So that's not too bad,
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: although it's kind of bad that his one bad start
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: was at home against Cleveland. I don't know what that
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: was about. Not a good offense. But he's been decent
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: in his last couple starts. His hit rate is way
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: too high though, he's been way too hit but he's
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of a lot of home runs. That's a
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: huge problem. His walk rate is okay, a strike out
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: rate is mediocre, but still the walks are actually kind
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: of high, and it's gonna lead to him not having
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: a great strike out walk ratio here it's below three,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: which is the cutoff that I kind of look for. Here,
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: I haven't been showing these numbers on the show, and
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of doing it now, though it takes forever,
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: so maybe I should stop doing it. His strikeout walk
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: rate or his strikeouts for nine, I mean, have gone
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: down a little bit this year too. And then of course, well, actually, dude,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: I keep forgetting We got to look at these pictures.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: Matchup numbers here Gusto against the Reds. We have seven
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: at bats against him, four hitters of face and two
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: eighty six average, one thousand ops. Blide has a home
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: run against them, they have two strikeouts, no walks, So
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: it's not a huge sample. But Gusto in that small
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: sample has not been very effective against those Reds hitters,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: and I don't expect him to be good here. Brady Singer,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: as far as him against Miami not good. In thirty
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: four at bats, three fifty three average, eight eighty two ops.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: Not good. The only thing that is good is the
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: six to zero strikeout walk ratio. But you get where
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: I'm going with this. I think over is the right
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: way to play this game, you know. I mean, you
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: get two pitchers that I don't trust, even though Singer
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: is better at home, and I don't like one of
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: the bullpens Cincinnati, so over makes the most sense to me.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: The total is pretty high. It's at nine to nine
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: and a half. It's that way for a reason. If
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: you can find a nine somewhere and you're getting you
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: look like you can get it at you know, the
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: Lion Book with the M in the Roman Emperor's Book
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: with the C those those books look like they're both
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: at nine. Juice to the over right now, So if
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play it, that's how I would play it,
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: is nine over minus one twenty, you know, instead of
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: having to lay the hook at the nine and a half.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: Nine is a key number because he's got to break
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: a four to four tie in baseball. Money's back in
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: the under here. I don't really get that sixty five
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets seventy eight percent of the cash on
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: the under. Yeah. No, I don't like the pitching here.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's too simple, but I think the over is
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: the right way to play that. Cincinnati is also getting
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: the money fifty three percent of tickets, eighty three percent
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them and minus one a weight
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: or so basically a pick the price. I mean, if
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play Cincinnati, I would limit it to the
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: first five, though you have to pay a bigger price
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: for it. But I think the biggest edge you'll get
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: with Cincinnati a singer over Gusto. But how big of
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: an edge is that? Really? Just because he's better at
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: home maybe and he's the legitimate starter. Yeah, I'm I
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: would not try to play the side here. I would
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: play the over. That's what I would do in that game,
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: and I would take it as singer must start, but
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: no selected starter from Miami. All right, San Diego Cleveland,
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: This game was way higher scoring than I thought it
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: would be yesterday. I was right about San Diego winning
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: because Cleveland was returning on from the road trip. King
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: I think had the better matchup members over Gavin Williams.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: But I still thought it was gonna be a good
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: pitching performance and it was not. Yeah, and neither bulpen
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: is that bad either, But that was a high scoring
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. Now Cleveland might be in a bounced back
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: spot here because they lost in the return home spot yesterday.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: A lot of times teams will bounce back from that. Cleveland,
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: they're in desperation mode. Man. The question you have to
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: kind of figure out is is Cleveland like starting to
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: pack it in for the season because they've been playing
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: bad recently. They've lost whatever, this is eight of their
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: last ten. That's bad. So maybe they're starting to kind
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: of be in dream crusher mode and realize they're not
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: going to make the playoffs, or you could argue, but
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: they're not eliminated, right, Like, there are only a few
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: games out of the last wildcard spot. I'm pretty sure
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: that's how bad the AL is, so you could argue
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: they're still fighting for it, and you know they've been
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: losing all these games. I think it is a bounce
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: back spot. I think Cleveland is probably the way to
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: look in this game, man, And as you'll see with
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup, I like better for Cleveland as well.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: I don't love the bullpen though. Cleveland used five relief
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday, and San Diego is the better bullpen anyway.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: They used three, so I would not want to factor
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: in Cleveland's bullpen into this unless I was going against them.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: San Diego seventh in bullpen. I think they're probably a
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: little bit better than that. Cleveland is twenty at the
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: I think they're better than that too. They're the only
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: team ranked in this range with an ERA lower than four,
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: so I think they're a little bit better than that.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: Neither offense has been very impressive. San Diego better recently,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: at least at twenty third. Cleveland's still massively struggling twenty eighth,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: tied with the Seattle. San Diego looked like they were
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: gonna go with Randy Vazquez here, but now they're undecided,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: so I don't know what they're doing, but if it
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: is Randy Vasquez, I don't trust him obviously. Four point
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: one six y RRA, one point three to seven whip
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: is not very good. He's better on the road, kind
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: of which is strange. Three point five to four road ray.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: You think he'd pitch better in San Diego, a pitcher
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: friendly parker, though Cleveland'savalpark is somewhat pitcher friendly as well.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: I think it kind of has to do with Cleveland
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: not having a good offense and having better pitching than offense.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: That's leading to them having a lot of low scoring
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: games as well. Vazquez, though, for whatever reason, he is
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: a little bit better on the road. He's been not
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: allowing that many runs recently, but I still don't trust
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: him right Like, he doesn't strike anybody out. He's gotten
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: his walks kind of down though, like usually his problem
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: is walks and that hasn't been the issue recently. But
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: I still don't trust this guy, and the advanced analytics
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: guys definitely will not either. He's still got a high
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: hit rate, he doesn't strike anybody out, very low strikeout rate.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is lower than it usually is. But
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: it's still not that good, leading to a pretty bad
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, still mostly because he's not striking anybody. Yeah,
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: his strikeout per nine is really low. None of that
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: is really good. Cleveland doesn't have much experience against him.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: Only three at bats two hitters have faced him. The
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: only hit is a single from Adell, who they got
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: at the trade deadline. One walk from Hoskins in here
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: three thirty three average eight thirty three ohps. But if
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: it is Vazquez, I would be fine fading him. I
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: don't trust him. Joey Cantillo is listed as the starter
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: for Cleveland. I think he's good. I think he has
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: some talent and he's still young. His issue is he's
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: way too wild, Like, he strikes out guys at a
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: good rate, so he obviously has talent here, it's just that, Yeah,
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: he's just all over the place and can't find the
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: zone enough. He's got a three point nine to one
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: ERA one point four to eight whip is pretty bad though,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: again because of the wildness. He is good at home though,
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: three point seventy nine Homie Ray, so he's in the
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: better of his home road splits. Here, he only went
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: one inning last time out against the White Sox. I'm
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: not really sure what happened to that. I think there
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: was a rain delay in that game. It was something weird.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: I think it was Can't against who wasn't for the
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: White Sox. I forget it was Davis Martin, I think maybe,
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: And I think they both only pitch one inning or something.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: O Katia was really bad in that one inning, but
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: still I think they both had a shortened start there
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: because of a rain situation. So I don't think there's
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: any injury or anything like that here. But Kntio, I mean,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: he's been all right again. The problem is the walks
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: are a huge concern. The hits are actually kind of
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: a concern too, a little bit high there on the hits.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: The walks are way too high though, and obviously the
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: biggest concern. But he does strike a lot of guys out,
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: so he's got some talent here, but because of the
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: number of walks, his strikeout walk ratios not high enough.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: His strikeouts for nine look pretty good, basically around ten,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: which has been the case for his whole career, and
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: he's been good against San Diego. They have eleven at
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: bats against them, most of their lineup has faced him,
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: and they have an own ninety one average against him.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: The only hit is a single from chronam Worth, and
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: they have two walks and two strikeouts whatever three twos.
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: So I think Cantio does actually match up well here
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: and I prefer him over whatever the hell San Diego
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: is doing. Although this one, I don't know if I'd
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: I lean Cleveland here, but I don't know if i'd
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: really want to do it, you know, without seeing who
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: San Diego is actually gonna play, actually gonna start here,
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: like if it's gonna be Vazquez or like a full
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: bullpend game for San Diego, I would say, yeah, I
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: would you know, Cleveland would be on my list, Like
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: Cleveland almost made the cut for me as a play.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: I like Cleveland in this game, but again, you gotta
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: worry about their mental state. Are they actually gonna continue
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: trying to win? But I think Cantillo is going to
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: be the better starter here against whoever for San Diego.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: So you could do it and just not pick a
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: start for San Diego if you want to take the risk.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: I think the situation is better for Cleveland, but I
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: would only do it in the first five Money is
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: coming in on San Diego, which I don't get fifty
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on them.
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: San Diego has been hot, dude. And that's the thing.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: The public is not going to play Cleveland, and Cleveland
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: is favored, so that the oddsmakers are telling you something.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: When San Diego's like really really hot right now and
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: winning every game including yesterday, and Cleveland is playing really
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: badly right now, why would Cleveland be favored? You know
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: what I mean? The oddsmakers are telling you Cleveland has
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: the slight edge in this game. They dropped a little
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: bit from minus one twenty down minus one twenty seven
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: down to the minus twenty eighteen range year. But yeah,
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: I would. I would play Cleveland in the first five.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: It'll be a higher price though, because you know that
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be at a disadvantage in the bullpen. I
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: would not want to try to play their bullpen, which
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: is less rested and also not the better bullpen anyway.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: Against San Diego. I would only play Cleveland first five.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: Money line is still probably gonna be an okay price
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: on that, probably like minus one thirty. But that's the
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: way I would play that game, all right, uh, Philadelphia, Minnesota.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: They were off yesterday because they played the Field of
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Dreams game the other day, which I don't know why
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: the MLB is continuing doing this, and it's gonna be
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: Red Sox Royals next year in the Field of Dreams game.
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: Give me a break, man, it's so fucking stupid. So
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: these teams didn't play yesterday after they played the Field
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: of Dreams on Thursday or whatever. Philadelphia won the game easily,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: seven to one. Aaron Nola I think looking like he's
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: doing what he did last year and actually possibly having
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: a good end to the season, which that'll help Philly
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: going into the playoffs if they're gonna have him as
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: the fourth man in their starting rotation. I don't know, man, Minnesota,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean they think they could still make
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: the I mean, they can still make the playoffs. I
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna happen, but they're still playing like that,
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: and maybe they will show up after that kind of
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: embarrassing loss on Netflix in the Field of Dreams game there.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: Maybe Minnesota will turn it around here after that loss.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: But first of all, I would not back Minnesota's bullpen.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: They're bad. Although both these Bullpens are rested after yesterday,
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: But I don't like these bullpens. Philadelphia's eighteenth. Minnesota is
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: twenty eighth, not good. I would avoid the bullpens. Minnesota
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: has been the better offense. They're thirteenth. The Phillies are twentieth.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Phillies have struggled offensively, especially on the road this year. However,
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: you know who's not struggled on the road is Philadelphia's
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher in this game. Heyesus Lozardo, who's been very
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: good on the road this year, and he's turned his
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: home stuff around too, So his numbers overall this year
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: are pretty good. Three point three two ERA, one point
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: one four. Whip Philly. As you know Philly, they basically
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: they rely, like pretty much entirely on their top three starters.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: That's how they win games. And Lozardo is one of them.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: So they have a really good record with one of
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: their top three starters on the mound, which is Wheeler, Lozardo,
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: and Sanchez. They win games with those three guys on
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: the mount, and Lozardo is there today. Lozardo has been
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: really good on the road two point zero one road ERA,
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: really good. In his last start against Toronto twelve strikeouts.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: He's yeah. I mean he's in good form right now.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: After he had kind of a bad start against Miami,
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: He's returned to form with two really good starts after
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: that one against Washington, so he faced a good offense
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: in here two, not just Toronto, and he was good
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees before that bad starting against Miami. I'm
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: not concerned really with Lozardo other than he does have
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: these kind of weird, unpredictable bad starts. Maybe some of
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: them are predictable, though, like I think he had actually no,
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to I thought he had a bad one
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: where I predicted it because he had bad matchup numbers.
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: I forget what it was though, But Luzardo, yeah, he's
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: not that easy to hit. His hit rates fairly. Low
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: walks have been an issue for him, I think in
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: the past, but he's gotten the walk rate down. It's
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: not bad. Strike out rate is quite nice. It's high,
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: so that looks pretty good. His strike out walk ratio
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: is good at four, so that's yes, better than it
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: usually is for him. And he's got his strikeouts for
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: nine up actually to eleven, which is the highest that
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: he's ever had except for when he was on the
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: A's back when they were in Oakland, and that was
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: a very small sample size in his first season with them.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: Luzardo against Minnesota, they haven't really seen much of him.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: They have twenty five at bats against them. Half of
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: them are from Josh Bell because Bell used to be
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: in this division with Lozardo. He was on Washington two
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: forty average from Minnesota against him, but a seven to
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: seventy six ops because Bell does have some extra base
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: hits here, including a home run, but other than Bell,
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: not a lot of damage going on here from this offense.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: Nine strikeouts, two walks, So I think Lozardo should pitch
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: well here. Connor pre Lip is pitching for Minnesota here.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: He's had an interesting season. I think he's a rookie
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: this season. He's got a four point seven to ninety RA,
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: one point three to two whips, some mediocre numbers here,
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: but he's been way better at home three point eight
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: six home he RA. And of course we are at
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: home here. No more field of dreams. We're in Minnesota
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: Stadium in this one. If people were unaware of that,
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: that's why they had the day off to travel from
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: the middle of nowhere Cornfields of Iowa. Back to Minneapolis
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: for this, but yeah, pre Lip isn't way better at home.
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: Two six upon a batting at home as well. He's
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: pitching a little bit better again recently, although he's not
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: going too deep into some of these outings here. I
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: think they're kind of limiting his pitch count because they
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: don't want to overwork him. But he's at least keeping
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: them in games. He's not pitching that poorly here. He's
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: got a reasonably low hit rate here. His walks are
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: too high though, so he's a little bit wild, but
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: his strike out rate is decent, so he does look
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: like he has some strikeout stuff, which is a good sign.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Strike strike out walk rasio is almost three, which isn't bad,
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: and strike outs for nine is above nine, so that's good,
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: and that means he does have talent and he can
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: strike guys out of the major league level. Only Derek
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: Hill has faced him before on Philly. He's ozer for
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: four against him with two strikeouts. So Prelip might be
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: able to ride the unfamiliarity here when you're when you
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: have a pitcher that's decent that's unfamiliar with the opposing offense.
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: That offense a lot of times will struggle to figure
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: him out. And Philly hasn't been that good of an
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: offense on the road. Like I said, so, I think
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: the way to play this game is the first five
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: under the money. He seems to not agree with me.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: What else is new? A lot of disagreement with me
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: in the market today. Sixty seven percent of tickets on
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: the under, eighty one percent of the cash on the over,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: the totals right at eight. I don't like the bullpens,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: even though they're rested. I can't back the bullpens, especially
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: in Minnesota. But you're gonna get a first five, probably
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: at like four four and a half. I think under
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: first five makes sense. Man. I think both starting pitchers
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: might hold up for the first five here, and Luzardo
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: will probably have to be the one that carries most
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: of the weight, and I think he could do that.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Even though I said that about Wheeler or not long ago,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: and that blew up in the bottom of the fifth.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: That should have been a win that Wheeler won against
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis. I don't know what the hell happened to
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: him there. Wheeler is gonna have to get fixed, man,
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: I thought it was just that he was sick in
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: one of those prior starts. But something's going on with
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: Wheeler where he's not pitching well right now. So Philly's
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: gonna have to figure that out if they're gonna make
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: a run in the playoffs here, because if they have
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: these three starting pitchers here and you'd go with the
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: four men rotation in the playoffs, Philly's gonna be hard
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: to get out of there in the playoffs. Even though
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: their offense isn't good, their bullpen isn't good, but those
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: three starters can carry you quite a bit. I mean,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: I don't even think Philly is that good. I think
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: they're overrated because their run differential is still not good. Philly,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: by the way, is a public side here. Ninety one
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets and only eighty two percent of
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: the cash, so the money's coming in against them. They're
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: like minus one forty down for minus one fifty five,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: So it looks like real money has come in against
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: Minnesota here. If you're gonna play Minnesota at all, I
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: would only play them in the first five, and that
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: would only be just you're kind of going in line
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: with that. Under that, I just talked about where you're
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: just saying, well, we think this is gonna be a
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: low scoring game and hopefully it stays close through the
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: first five. But there's no way that I would back
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: from Minnesota's bullpen. I don't even I don't want to
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: back Minnesota at all. So yeah, even though it might
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: be a bounce back for them, whatever, But yeah, I'm
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: not gonna be fading Lozardo in that game. But I
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: think under first five makes the most sense, correct. Yeah,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: the Field of dreams, it's a money making thing. It's bullshit. Yeah,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: but the team's complained about it. That's why they haven't
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: done it recently, Like they did it twice in the past,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: but I think they haven't done it for like a
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: few years now, and it was because teams didn't like
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: it because they have to go to the middle of
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: nowhere and then there's like no crowd there for it
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: and whatever. It's stupid. It's very very weird, and yeah,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think they should continue doing it. What game
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: is next here, Seattle Houston. Yeah, things are not going
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: well for Seattle. Man. I thought they had a pretty
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: good chance to win yesterday, even though Houston had the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: rest advantage yesterday, but Houston was returning home from the road,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: so I thought Seattle had a decent shot, and they did.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: It went into extra innings, but Seattle lost again, Houston
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: winning the AL West right now, Seattle. Big problems here
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: for Seattle. There's six games back. There's still a chance
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: that a wildcard spot depending on how everything shakes out.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: But seems like the wildcards like it looks like it's
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: gonna be Yankees Red Sox. I better be the Red
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: Sox at this point. And then the wildcard spot right now,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: to me, it looks like it's going to the White
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: Sox or Detroit, whichever one of those teams doesn't win
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: that division. So if you're in the AL West, you
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: gotta win your division. Man. I do think Texas is
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: probably fucked. If de Gram is missing any serious time here,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: I think Texas is done. I don't think Seattle is,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: but I don't know what the hell is going on
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: with their offense. They need to fix something here now.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: Seattle should be showing up for these games because they're
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: behind Houston here. They should be the more motivated team
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: in desperation mode here. Seattle used four relief pitchers in
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: that game yesterday, but extra inning game, a lot of
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: bullpen arms came in for both sides. Houston used five.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: Houston's ranked higher in the bullpen in Seattle is the
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: ranked where are they tenth? Seattle's sixteenth. But I think
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: it's pretty close between the two bullpens. I think you
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: can make the argument Seattle's is better. You can't make
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: the argument Seattle's offense is better. Houston is ranked seventh,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: tied with the Braves, Seattle twenty eighth, tie with Cleveland. Yeah,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: things are not going well though. Some of that you
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: can blame the stadium, but you can only blame their
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: stadium to such a you know, so you can only
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: blame their stadium to a certain extent. And they're playing
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: in Houston here, so can't use that as an excuse. Here.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: Emerson Hancock is pitching for Seattle, and I think you
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: can make the argument he's the better of the two
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: starters here. He's the more established starter at this one.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: He's had a good season three point three to five RA,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: one point one two whip. He's not as good on
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: the road, but I mean that's kind of expected with
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: Seattle's pitchers. Their home ballpark is very pitcher from the
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: three point six to three ROADI ray is still not bad.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: Wasn't good last time out against Tampa Bay, though he
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: allowed way too many hits. He's been a bit too
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: hit able recently and his team has not been winning
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: his games. They've lost four in a row, although some
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: of that's not his fault entirely. Some of that has
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: to do with the fact that his hitting. The hitting
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: behind him is non existent basically, so it's not all
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: his fault here. He's got a pretty low hit rate here,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: pretty low walk rate as well. Strike got rate is decent,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: and so his overall numbers look good. Straightout walk ratio
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: is not bad here. It's the best that it's been
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: in his career so far, close to four straightouts per nine.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: Also the best that he's posted so far in the eights.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: That's not bad. Numbers against Houston, I don't know. They're
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit on the bad side. And forty one
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: at bets two ninety three average is high. Seven forty
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: oh ps isn't too high. They haven't hinted for that
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: much power. But I still don't know if I trust
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: Handcock here entirely. Nine strikeouts, two walks. Yeah, I don't know, man,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: I mean I think generally, I think that he should
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: pitch okay here, though I remember a lot of those
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: numbers came in the past when he wasn't as good
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: as he is now, so you get a better version
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: of Hancock here, So I think he might do all right.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: I hate him wiz Nesky, his pitcher for Houston. He's
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: had like an injury played career. I think, man, he's
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: been a relief pitcher a lot of the time. He's
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: had okay numbers throughout his career, though, I still don't
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: really know what he is, to be honest, but he's
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: been pretty good at home this year three ERA at
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: home overall, pretty good numbers here, three point eight six ERA,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: one point one eight win. But he's only made three
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: starts so far. However, Houston's won all of them, or
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: three appearances. I think one of them was a bullpen.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: Oh no, yeah, no, they were all starts. Yeah, so
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: they were all starts. Houston won every single one of them.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer and runs in all of them.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: He's gone at least five to two thirds innings in
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: all of them. But he faced Anaheim Toronto and San Francisco.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: Those are bad offenses. However, guess who else is a
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: bad offense. Oh yeah, that would be Seattle, who he's
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: pitching against today, So I think he might be able
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: to handle Seattle as well. His hit rate is decent enough,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: it's below one per inning. He doesn't really walk many guys,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike guys out though, so that's I guess kind
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: of the concern with him. The strike out rate is
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: kind of low. It's been higher than that for him
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: in the past though, so based on this small sample size,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: I think you could actually look at his numbers like
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: last year and whatever and kind of gauge more from
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: that where his strike out rate was better than that.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: So I think he's he's actually a little bit better
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: than his underlying numbers actually show right now. And he's
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: been good against Seattle. They have twenty nine at bats
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: against him two forty one average six to forty six. Ohps,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: that's not bad. So I actually think first five under
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: in this game. Maybe, Yeah, I think that's probably the
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: way I would go. I mean, normally I would say
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: full game under because the bullpens are not that bad,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: but they had an extra inning game yesterday. The bullpens
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: are kind of burned out, so I don't want to
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: factor in the bullpens into that. Totals at eight and
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: a half, but I think both starters might do well. Again,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: the market doesn't agree seventy three percent of the tickets
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: on the under seventy three percent of the cash on
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: the over. You're probably gonna look at at least a
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: four and a half though, in the first five, and
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: I think both starters might be able to pitch well here.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: So that is what I would lean towards is the
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: first five under eighty percent of tickets ninety one percent
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Houston, although they dropped from out
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: his one twenty nine down of the minus one sixteen
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: range or so, wes Nesky has the better matchup numbers here.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: It's a tough read, man, it really is. I think
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: Seattle's gonna be, like I said, the more desperate team.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: You could argue maybe they have the better bullpen here.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: You can make the argument Handcock is better than wes
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: Nesky here with the way he's been pitching this season,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: and had he's more established this season, I'd slightly lean
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: Seattle as an underdog for that reason, but I think
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: that the way better play is some sort of under here,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: a first five under, but I'm not gonna do it.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: I do have one more playing here, which is another
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: one that the market doesn't like. I'll be right back.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: I'll take a quick break here, Potp Man, You're really
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: not in the podcast arena, right, Potp is part of
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: the problem with Dave Smith and Robbie The fire Bernstein
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: one of the best political podcast that's out there, although
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: I admittedly I have not watched in quite a while.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: I used to watch it very regularly for years, but
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: I just don't watch podcasts regularly anymore. So It's it's
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: nothing personal against part of the problem or whatever. I
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: love Dave and Robbie, you know. But yeah, so I'm
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: definitely gonna support Robbie actually gave me the hat. I
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: don't know if I'm allowed to say that, but one
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: of the times I saw one of the like eight
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: or nine times I've seen them do comedy live, Robbie
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: gave me the hat. I talked to him a little
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: bit after the show. I'll be right back, yep. Inside,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We were on own seven
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: anything like this, Man, the slump can you? And two
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: straight losses not a good day at all? Own four
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: with the bruins Archa is that what it is? I
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: don't even know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: know what datas anymore. Man, back with you after the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: worst day that I could possibly have, Back with you
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: as I always am until I die, at least oh
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: and two yesterday and yesterday it did not go well
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: for me. Own five, the worst month that I've ever
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't know
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: what to even tell you about this anymore. To the slump,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: I I don't even know what I should do at
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: this point other than potentially end it all. All right, well,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: yeah you should. I would recommend watching it, even though
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: I've kind of stopped doing it. But that was like
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: the go to podcast for political news sort of, I
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: would say for me. Plus there's a mix of comedy
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: in there, because they're both comics obviously. So all right,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about these three Fox games here that are
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: all simultaneously on Fox. Yeah, guess which one of these
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: is gonna get the most eyes on it? Between Arizona, Atlanta, Boston,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and Milwaukee and LA. I wonder which one of
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: these people are gonna actually watch. Maybe it's the one
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: between the top two teams of the National League. Might
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: be that one. I don't know, Arizona and Atlanta. Atlanta
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: lost to it or up thing yesterday, so they might
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: be in kind of a bounce back spot here. A
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: lot of times you want to back a team that
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: just got shut out at home in their next game,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: because a lot of times they'll come out with more intensity.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: That was Brandon fought Man still pitching really well since
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: coming back from the miners. I guess was able to
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: somehow outdual Chris Sale in that game. Atlanta used three
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. They're the better bullpen here, Arizona used two.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's ranked third, which I think is accurate for them.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: Arizona's ranked fifth, which I don't think is accurate. I
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: think that's overrating them. I don't think they're that good.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: Braves had the better bullpen here. Braves have the better
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: offense as well. They ranked seventh time with Houston. Arizona's
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: been better though since the trade, Since the All Star Break,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: really they've actually been one of the better offenses. They
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: moved all the way up to eighteenth. So yeah, I mean,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: I would say there at least a mediocre offense, but
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's is probably still better. Arizona's going with Eduardo Rodriguez
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: here is continuing to defy the Advance analytics for the
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: most part, and he's had a good season two point
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: seven ERA one point two to three whip though does
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: indicate his RA should probably be a little bit higher
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: than that. He's been pretty good on the road two
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: point four nine ROADYRRA, so he's been not really significantly
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: worse homer away here. He was good against the Dodgers
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: last time out, really good actually, after he had kind
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: of a bad start against San Diego. Go figure. He
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: pitched bad against a bad offense in San Diego and
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: then pitch way better against any elite offense the Dodgers. Okay,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: and he pitched really well against another good offense prior
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: to that, Pittsburgh, So yeah, go figure. But he's he's
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: been mostly good. He's got a pretty low hit rate here.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not too bad. Strike out rate is low, though,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: and that's why the advanced analytics guys don't like him.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: That's basically nuke to his strikeout walk ratio, it's pretty bad.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: It's two point one. That's not good. So that does
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: kind of indicate there should be some regression here, but
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: it hasn't really happened. His strikeout nine rate is way
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: down in the sixes here, and it's been in the
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: eighth for the past few years. I don't know when
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: he was really good it was higher than that. But
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: of course he's gone through some injuries and surgeries. He's
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: getting a little bit older. He's still you know, he's
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: the way that he's pitched. Though, as far as like
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: how like what the results, I would say I guess
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: results wise, this has been one of his better seasons though,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: so go figure numbers against Atlanta are also not bad.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: In fifty six at bats, two fifty average, six sixty
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: nine ohps, seventeen to five strike out walk ratio. None
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: of those numbers are bad. You might have to worry
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: about his pitch count because he did throw one hundred
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: and fifteen pitches in that game against the Dodgers, So
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: Arizona's just letting him go. They're unleashing him, and that
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: was the most pitches he's thrown this year. Maybe that's
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: a concern, but he's also a veteran, so he's kind
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: of used to having some high pitch counts here, So
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's really gonna kill him here.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: I think I lean more towards him pitching well. Grant
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: Holmes is pitching for the Braves, and I think he
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: is the less sort of these two pitchers here. He's
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: kind of hard to figure out. Three point four to
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: seven e RA, one point three to two whip. You
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: know that whip indicates his the RA should be higher
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: than it is. He's been a little bit worse at home,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: believe it or not, even though he was better at
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: home last year three point eight to four home ra
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: and his opponent batting average is also worse at home.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: Braves have been really good with him pitching recently, though
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: they've won his last seven starts. He hasn't allowed to
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: run this month against Miami and the Yankees here, going
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: twelve shutout innings. Not really striking many guys out here though,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: But yeah, he's he's been decent, but prior to this
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: month he was kind of going with some shorter outings
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: and keeping his team in the games. They were definitely
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: winning the games, so he wasn't killing them. His hit
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: rate is okay, his walk rate is too high. His
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is not that good, so his the
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys won't like him either. The strikeout walk
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: ratio is not that good. It's at two strikeout per nine.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: Is also at the lowest that it's been throughout his
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: career in the seven so that's not exactly great as
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: long as it gets. Arizona are good though, in forty
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: five at bats one thirty three average four to thirty
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: three ops. The only bad number here is the strikeout
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: walk Ratio're really just the walk number ten to nine
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio. Yeah, I mean to me, it
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: still looks like probably an under, even though you got
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: two pictures that the Evans analytics guys are just saying
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: they're not as good as their numbers look, and I
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: agree with that, but they're still bitching well. Their matchup
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: numbers look good enough here. The bullpens are okay enough.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: I think this game is an under seventy one percent
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: of tickets ninety five percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: The total is high at nine, but it does look
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: like the money agrees with me. But with a high
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: total like that, the oddsmakers are kind of telling you
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: that they think the starting pitching won't actually be that good. Yeah,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: So that throws me off a little bit that the
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: total is that high. But I think it's an under,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: uh seventy four percent of tickets ninety three percent of
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: the cash on Atlanta maybe, I mean they're at minus
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: one thirty something they initially dropped for minus one fifty.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: I mean it could be a bounce back for Atlanta here,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: but I think erod is a little bit better than Holmes,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: So the Holmes has the somewhat better matchup numbers here,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: but just as a whole Erod I think is the
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: better of the two pitchers here. So I don't know.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: If you're gonna go Atlanta, I would go full game
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: with it because I think they do have the bullpen advantage,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. I would kind of lean Arizona
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: first five, but I think the under is the way
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: better opinion for me on that game. Boston and Pittsburgh
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: and what the fuck are dude the Red Sox. This
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: team sucks. Like, outside of Peyton Totley, you cannot trust
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: any Red Sox starting pitcher. I'm telling you that right now.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: Peyton Toley is their only trustworthy pitcher. Yeah, that's just
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: the way that it is. Sonny Gray, he's looked good
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: this year. Sure, I don't trust him. I'm sorry, he's older,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: he's in a lot of cases, he's too hittable. I
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: don't know what to tell you, man, This Red Sox
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: pitching staff, it's looking like a disaster. Benett wasn't good
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: again yesterday. This team is fucked. Bennett doesn't strike enough
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: guys out. The Red Sox offense is again not doing well.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: The bullpen is starting to totally implode. This is bad,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: really fucking bad. Yeah, this Red Sox team is ass
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: I don't care that they just had like an amazing
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: month or whatever they've now they've followed that up with
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: an absolutely disastrous weak plus, so they're basically erasing everything
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: that they did. They also have a whitlock is on
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: the DL, so that doesn't help with their bullpen here,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: and it's an elbow issue, which is like the worst
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: thing that you could have, a throwing elbow, I think.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: So this gamboa guy is up right now. Yeah, fuck that.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: This is bad, really really bad. Red Sox used two
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. There's still the better bullpen against Pittsburgh,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh did use five relief pitchers yesterday, so the
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: Red Sox should have the bullpen edge. There's still the
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: number one bullpen in both ERA and Whip. Pittsburgh is
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: nowhere near that good. At where are they at twenty
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: third hitting wise? Yeah, Pittsburgh is the better offense their fourth.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have been better recently in that department at
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: least fourteenth, but that was mostly during their hot stretch.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: They started hitting better recently, very recently them been bad
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: again offensively, but yeah, Pittsburgh is the better offense, especially
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: at home. Sonny Gray is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: He should be able to get them a win here.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: I mean he I think he is the better of
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: the two pitchers here. Two point seven to ninety Arra
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: one point one five whip. He's been a little bit
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: worse on the road though, three point one to three
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: Roadie Ray. And this is not an offense that's to
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: be trifled with, you know, this is a good offense
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: he's going up against here. Gray has been good recently,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: though he had a couple of bad starts in here.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: He righted the ship and his last two starts are
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: both good against the White Sox, but then against Toronto,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: I mean they suck, although Toronto actually was able to
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: get to him in the previous start in one bad inning.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: A low hit rate on the season, low enough, he
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: doesn't really walk anybody. Strike out rate is okay, so
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: looking at his overall numbers, yeah, I mean his strikeout
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, it's gone down from what he was doing
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: with Saint Louis, but it is kind of in the
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: range that it's been for most of his career. As
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: far as the strikeout per nine, it is way down though,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: so his strikeouts per nine have been way better in
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: the past, so that isn't a great sign to me.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: He is good against Pittsburgh generally, though, even though they've
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: seen some of them, because he was not Saint Louis
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: not that long ago. Seventy three at bats two zhot
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: five average, allowed six to sixty one oh ps, twenty
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: three to three strike out walk ratio, So he's been
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: pretty good against Pittsburgh for the most part. He should
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: have the upper hand. Garman and the Red Sox is
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: still fighting for a wildcard spot. Pittsburgh might be done,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: Like I think you could, I guess argue they're still
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: kind of fighting for a wildcard spot. But this Pittsburgh team,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: after that recent run they went on where they were
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: not playing well, well, they might kind of be a
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: dead team. Man. I don't know. Pittsburgh's going with Jared Jones,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: and I like Jones. I think he's got the higher
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: ceiling probably out of these two pitchers here. He's way younger.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: He's like ten years younger than Sonny Gray. More than that,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: He's got a five point zero three r here, which
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: doesn't look that good, but his one point two whip
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: is not that bad, so I think he's better than
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: his numbers. Look, however, five point eight to two home r race,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: so he's had some issues at home, although his opponent
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: batting average at home is way better at two oh six, So, like,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: how do you even figure out a guy that has
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: stats like this? I mean, I think Jones is good.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: He missed all of last year, and his first season
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: in the majors in twenty twenty four was pretty good.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: He had a good strikeout rate whatever, and he still
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: does this year, so coming back from injury, he's still
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: able to strike guys out. His walk rate is okay,
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: his hit rate is okay, so yeah, his overall number
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: is definitely not bad. Strikeout walk rato is exactly the
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: same actually as it was in twenty twenty four right now,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: and his strikeouts for nine is also almost exactly the same,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: so that's consistency. Red Sox haven't really seen him. They
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: have two guys who have faced him to fifty average
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: six fifty ops one to one strike a walk razers,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox are not familiar with Jones. However,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: Jones has been bad recently. That's the one thing that's
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: a negative for him here is recent form not good.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: He got absolutely wrecked by the Mets in his last start,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: which is not a good sign because the Mets are
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: not a good team, not a good offense. Milwaukee kind
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: of beat him up the game before that. That's more
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: understandable because they're a good offense. Mets are not. So
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: Jones is not a good form right now, so Sunny
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: Gray is in better form. I think both pitchers are
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: pretty good overall, though, and they both look like they
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: match up okay here, so I do think this is
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: kind of an under type of game here. The money
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: is kind of coming in towards the over though, the
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: total seven and a half, so the oddsbeakers have put
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: that number out there telling you they think it's gonna
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: be a low scoring game. I think if I was
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: gonna go under, I could only do it in the
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: first five because I don't want to deal with Pittsburgh's bullpen.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: Sixty six percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, I would lean first five under.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: I'd probably slightly lean Red Sox eighty six percent of tickets,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: ninety four percent of the cash on them. They're favored
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: at about minus one twenty. I mean, the Red Sox
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: have cooled off, so maybe the public sentiment is a
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: little bit cooler on the Red Sox now, though Pittsburgh
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that good recently either, but the public does
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: like offense, and that is Pittsburgh here. However, they're probably
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: gonna like Gray over Jones, like his era is way better,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: and that's misleading, Like Gray is not that much better
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: than Jones, you know what I mean. So the eras
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: are misleading there. But Gray is obviously the more established pitcher.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: He's had a much longer career. Maybe he can get
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: it done here. Again, I don't know, man, It's yeah,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: it's bad. Things are not going well for the Red
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: Sox totally. He looks like Reid Coverdale, which I just
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: told Reid that the other day. Actually I was texting
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: with It was very very gay, dirty sock. What's up?
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out? All right? The next game is
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: my last play that I have here. I'm keeping it
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: selected and selective, and I'm going with the starting pitching
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: matchups that I like the most. Here that I think
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: are somewhat mismatches here, and I think the bullpens have
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: the advantage in both of my plays as well, which
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: is why I'm going full game on them. But the
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: market doesn't agree with either of them. We're gonna take
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: the Brewers minus won twenty three here against LA the Dodgers.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: I know the Dodgers are an underdog here, and the
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: professionals might say, well, whenever you get the Dodgers as
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: an underdog, you should do it because they're like the
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: best team in baseball and you basically never get them
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: as an underdog. But look at the starting pitching matchup here.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: There's a reason why they're an underdog here. They're facing
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: the best pitcher in baseball. They're going with a pitcher
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: who I think is pretty overrated. So yeah, that's what
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: we got going on here. Milwaukee. By the way, if
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: he didn't know, they did lose yesterday to the Dodgers.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers won three to one behind Yamamoto, but Yamamoto
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: is not pitching in this game. And before that, Milwaukee
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: did win the first game of the series. Milwaukee, I
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: think it won six games in a row in LA
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: or something like that before yesterday. So Milwaukee has won
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: most of their recent games in LA, believe it or not.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: So they do well in LA, and I think they're
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: gonna do it here too. I like their bullpen better.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers' bullpen has been struggling a bit. Milwaukee on
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: these two guys yesterday out of the bullpen because it
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: was in a loss, whereas the Dodgers had to bring
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: out their better relief pitchers to finish the game off
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: in a save situation, they use three guys yesterday. Brewers
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: are the eighth rank bullpen, but again I think they're
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: like a top five bullpen. Probably they're good, and the
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: rest scenario is a little bit better here as well.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: Dodgers in ranked twelve for their areas four, which is
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: pretty mediocre, so I think we get the better bullpen here.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: Dodg have the better offense. Obviously, they're tied him first
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: with Washington. They're not quite as good at home, but
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: their offense is probably not going to be at an
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: elite level against Jacob Mazerowski. Okay, Milwaukee is number nine offensively,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: so they could definitely compete offensively, but also obviously we're
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: backing Mizerowski the best pitcher in baseball. He's been elite
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: one point seven to six ERA zero point seven four WHIP,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: and I think we won't need him to be totally
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: elite in this game to get this thing to come home. Man,
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: we need some runs from Milwaukee, but Mizierowski just needs
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: to be good enough to do it, and for the
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: most part he has been. His strike out walk ratio
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: is insanely high. Strike out per nine is insanely high.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: You know, we know, like he strikes out a ton
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: of guys. He doesn't seem to be faltering in that
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: department really and they're kind of limiting his pitches too,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: which is interesting, so they're trying to not overwork him.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: He's at one hundred and thirty three innings, so he's
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: still not at that like one point fifty where I
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: kind of look at like the cutoff, especially for guys
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: that are total flame throwers like him. But he doesn't
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: seem to be slowing down. He's still striking out a
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: ton of guys, so it looks like he's still pitching
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: really well. Here. He's basically unhittable. His hit rate is
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: one of the lowest in baseball. His walk rate is
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: good enough. His strike out rate is very high, so
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: we know all that. And against La he's been good.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: Thirty three at bats against him, he's held him to
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: a one fifty two average, four ninety five ohps fourteen
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: to three strike out walk ratio. So yeah, we get
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: definitely back this. He's been able to hold down the
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: best offense in baseball. Meanwhile, Justin Robleski, who has been
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: a guy the advanced analytics guys hate, and they've been
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: saying he's gonna fall off a cliff, and I think
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: that is starting to happen, even though he's had a
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: good season. But his era's gone up to three point
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: four to four, his whip has gone up to one
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: point one point one. I realize that's not bad. And
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: he is good at home two point nine to one
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: homie one p eighty one upon a batting average that's
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: all good. Recently not good. His last three starts have
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: all been bad, and the first one was at home
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: against the who's not a good offense. Then he went
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: into the Cubs and Arizona. He got obliterated in those
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: two starts. He's in really bad form. He walked three
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: guys a piece in those He's allowed nine home runs
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: over that stretch as well, in whatever this is, thirteen
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: to thirteen to two thirds innings I think is what
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: that is. Yeah, he's not pitching well right now, so
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: he's completely fallen off, and maybe pitching in the All
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: Star Game throw him off. He had one good start
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: after that against Philly, and since then he's been bad
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: in every start. He does have a low hit rate,
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: he does have a low walk rate. He doesn't really
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: strike guys out, So the advanced analytics guys come in
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: and they poke at that. Although his walk rate is
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: so low that his strikeout walk ratio is actually good,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: so I don't consider him to be a bad pitcher.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: But he's in very bad form right now. His strikeout
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is not really that good. So again the
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys will point at that, but what I'm
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: looking at is bad form. Plus Milwaukee has handled them
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: in twenty six at bats. Milwaukee has a three forty
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: six average against him ony twenty nine ops four to
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: three strikeout walk ratio, So he does not have good
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers. So let's do it. You know, you could argue, well,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get one of the cheapest prices you'll ever
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: get on the Dodgers, and the money is coming in
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: that way, which I don't like. Fifty five percent of
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: the tickets on Milwaukee, seventy six percent of the cash
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: on the Dodgers price has been driven down from minus
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: one forty three down into the mice one twenties on Milwaukee.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: But on the other hand, couldn't you also argue this
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: is one of the cheapest prices you'll get on Jacob
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: Mizerowski And doesn't that matter more? Like, Yeah, you're getting
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: this Dodgers team at one of the cheapest prices you'll
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: get them at. But why is that the case? Right? Like,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: I think it matters more that you're getting the better,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: the best starter in baseball at one of the cheapest
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: prices you'll be able to get him. So I say,
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: let's do that. And again, Milwaukee has had the upper
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: hand against the Dodgers in LA recently by quite a bit.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: Rableski's not as good as his numbers look. The money's
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: also coming on in the under in this game. The
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: total seven and a half, I understand, and I mean
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: both pictures have had a good season. It probably does
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: look like more of an under than an over. I'll
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: tell you that, like both pictures have been all right,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: and I mean Missierowski obviously is completely elite, but Robleski's
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: been all right. And then for the most part good,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: I would say, And then the bullpens all right. Milwaukee's
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: is good, LA's is alright. So that's what I will say.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: So I think you have good slash elite pitching across
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: the board from Milwaukee, and you have okay pitching maybe
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: from the Dodgers here. That's how I see it. Maybe
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: that translates to an under but yeah, what I'm saying
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: is Milwaukee is the play in that game. That's the
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: side there Brew is having under contract. Fuck the Dodgers,
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, even the Dodgers. I don't think we would
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: have enough money to do that, although the Dodgers already
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: currently if you look at I forget what stat it was.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it was pitchers like wins Over replaced,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: I don't I forget exactly what it was. It was
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: some stat for starting pitchers over the last three years.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: The starting pitchers that are the top five in that stat,
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: four of them are on the Dodgers. It's completely ridiculous.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: One of them is Schoolball obviously, but it's Scoobo Yamamoto,
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: Snell and who was the other one? Then it was
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: a Glasnow. I don't know because Snell and Glassner are
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: both basically hurt, but they'll probably be there for the playoffs,
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: just like last year. Wasn't Glasnow or was it someone?
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: Who else? Do they have? I forget? They must have somebody?
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: Oh no, no, it was Otani. It was Otani. Yeah, but
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: Otani hasn't really been pitching that much recently. But yeah,
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: Otani was one of them. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, how
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: can we forget about him? Yeah? Totally ridiculous? All right?
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: Kansas City and Anaheim. This is ugly, man. Although when
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: I first looked at this, I'm like, Anaheim definitely has
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: a better starter here, like debt Meer's over Dabknack, Like
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: I don't care what Dabnak has looked like so far.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: Detmes is the guy that has the way better stuff here.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: So that looks like Anaheim is worth a look here,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: but you have to pay a price for it. Anaheim
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: did lose yesterday, and it was in the full game
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: and not in the first five, which I'm still pissed
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: about because that should have been a win for us
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: with Royals first five. They're up three runs in the
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: middle of the third inning and they blew the whole thing.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: Wound up with a push on that one at least,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: But it would have been a win if we played
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: full game. But who's gonna do that with the Royals bullpen?
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: No anyway, Anaheim could, I guess, being kind of a
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: bounce back mode after that. Neither team is going anywhere,
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: So like, how much motivation do you get out of
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: these two teams here? Well, I don't like the bullpens,
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: so I would avoid the bullpens here. Kansas City used
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: five guys as well. They're not good. Not allowed to
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: say five anymore. Jayden Daniels will come sue this show.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: Anaheim used four. I would avoid both bullpens. They both suck.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: Anaheim twenty second, Kansas City dead last thirtieth. However, I
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: think the A's are worse. But whatever, Offensively, neither team
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: is that good. Kansas City is the better of the two,
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: but they're twenty second and Anaheim is twenty seventh. And
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is not good at home either, So maybe dobb
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: Knock will pitch well again here, he's been better than expected,
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: at least for Kansas City. He's got a two ERA,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: but it is misleading, and I think his ERA was
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: zero pretty recently, but it's misleading. His whip is one
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: point three to three. More damning is that his strikeout
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is nineteen to fourteen, and that is not good.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really strike anybody out. This guy's been kind
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: of a journeyman pitcher. Well not really that, because he
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: was mostly just on Minnesota, but he's like barely pitched
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: in Major League Baseball. He's been kind of a guy
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: that's been in and out of the league, hasn't really
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: stuck in the league. He's in his thirties. He's not good,
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: and his last start was pretty bad against the Cubs,
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: so he started to not pitch well. I'm not even
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: sure he was pitching well anyway before that, although he
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: had a couple of good starts in there that were
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: actually good. But I don't think he's that good. His
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: hit rate is okay, but his walk rate's kind of high.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really strike anybody out. He's not trustworthy, although
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: Anaheim hasn't really seen him, and they're not a good offense.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: Mike Trout has the only hit against him, a single.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: He and Frasier combined for a one for four off him.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: With those strikeouts, no walks, not much to take away
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: from that, But I still don't think he's good, So
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: I think that the edge still just goes to Anaheim
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: here with re debt mers on the mound. You know,
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: I like him. I think he is good. I think
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: he's better than his four ERA makes him look. One
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: point one whip is not bad. He's a guy that
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: has good strikeout stuff. He's been good at home three
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: point eighty six home ERA. He's been pitching fairly well recently,
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: although he walked too many guys last time out against
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: Texas and didn't make it that deep into the start
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore before that. But his command numbers have mostly
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: been pretty on point here. So I think he's getting
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit unlucky. He's not allowing that many hits.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, walk rate is not
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: too bad. His strikeout rate is quite high, so these
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: numbers look pretty good. Strikeout walk ratio not too bad.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: In the high threes, that's not bad. Strekeout's per nine
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: pretty good. It's been pretty good throughout his career, so yeah,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: I think Debtmer's still is like an under the radar pitcher.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Kissas City are I would say more good
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: than bad. In forty at bats, ten strikeouts, three walks,
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: two twenty five average seven to twenty nine ohps, that's
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: not bad. I think the way to play this game
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: is Anaheim in the first five. And again the market
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't agree. Sixty eight percent of the tickets fifty six
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them, so the money's coming
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: in against them. They drop for minus one fifty seven
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: down to minus one forty something. I think if you're
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: gonna play them in the first five, you're gonna have
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: to lay the half run with them, though I think
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: they could get it done, like Detmer should be able
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: to outpitch dab Knock. I mean, I think this is
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: a pretty big mismatch for Anaheim. I wouldn't want to
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: deal with the bullpens, even though you could argue what
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's is the better bullpen, and I think you'd be
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: right in saying that. But I CA can't trust either
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: bullpen here, So Anaheim first five would be the way
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: I'd play it. I think it is a big mismatch
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: Detver's over Daub. Now I get to lay the half run.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: It is worrisome a little bit because Anaheim can't fucking hit.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: So we'll see. But that is the way I would
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: play that game. And then we have Texas and the
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: A's the later game slightly like two minutes later than
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: the other game ESPN Unlimited. A's won yesterday eight to
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: three Texas. You know, I don't know what's going on
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: with Texas here. A's had a rest advantage yesterday, so
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: I did say that, and it looks like gage Jump
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: might have pitched okay. In that game yesterday, the A's
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: used four relief pitchers. I would not trust their bullpen, however,
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: I don't think Texas is very trustworthy at this point.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: They used four guys as well. Texas is the better bullpen,
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: but I don't like either bullpen. At this point. Texas
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: is nineteenth of their eras like in the mid fours,
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: long long way away from how good they were last year.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: Out of the bullpen, the A's are twenty ninth though,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: and like I said, I think they're the absolute worst bullpen.
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: So Texas is still the better bullpen, but I don't
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: like either of them. The A's are sixteenth in offense,
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: Texas is twentieth time at the Phillies. Neither offense really
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: that good at this point of The A's have dealt
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: with a lot of injuries on I think their offense
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: is better than Texas, but we are looking at a
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly park here and maybe the hits will come
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: in this one. Mackenzie Gore is pitching for Texas, and
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: I think he's not a bad pitcher, but this might
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: not be the greatest matchup for him here or stadium
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: for him. Four point four to three ERA, one point
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: two to four whip not horrible, mediocre stuff, but he's
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: not good on the road five point four to eight
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: road ray, so he has some issues on the road.
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: He pitches better in Texas' pitcher friendly stadium. He's got
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: some walk issues. For the most part. Texas has won
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: a lot of his games recently, though they won five
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: of his six starts five of his last six starts.
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: He doesn't allow that many hits. He's a good strikeoup pitcher,
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: but he allows a decent amount of home runs. He's
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: kind of a fly ball pitcher. Well more than kind of.
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: He is a flyball picture, so that doesn't play well
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: probably in the A's stadium, So he's probably too home
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: run conducive to trust him really in this stadium. The
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: walks are the main concern with him, though, looking at
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: his other stuff here. Strike out walk ratios right at three.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: That's because he strikes out enough guys, that is the case.
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: Strike out per nine, pretty high number there. I don't
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: know why I'm hearing stuff outside right now. Hold on,
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: because I gotta check my cameras here. What is going
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: on here? Man? I don't think I see anything outside,
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: but I don't know what is going on here. I apologize.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It sounds maybe it was just a
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: loud vehicle or something. I don't know. Too close to
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: the street, you know. Hold on, Yeah, I don't know.
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: I don't really see anything. I don't know what's going
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: on anyway, all right? What was I talking about, Mackenzie Gore? Oh? Yeah, O, yeah,
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: I shouldn't have closed that, all right? Gore against the
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: A's though not good numbers here in forty one at
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: bats ten to seven, strike out walk racio three to
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: ninety batting average nine eighteen ops. These are bad numbers
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: here from Gore against the A's, So I think the
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: Gore doesn't set up that well in this game. To
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: be honest, he's bad on the road. He's kind of
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: a fly he is definitely a fly ball pitcher, and
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: he has bad numbers against the A's. What do you mean,
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: I mean you're not gonna be able to hear what's
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: outside because this mic is pretty directional here, unless you
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: mean if you can't hear the show that's not on me.
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: I could see my mic working, So I don't know
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: what the fuck. Somebody else, if you're in the chat,
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: you can tell me if you can hear the audio
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: on this or I guess I could. I could check
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: real quick. Unless you're talking about not hearing anything outside,
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: which only I'm gonna hear that. Hold on, let me say,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: oh my fucking god, dude, Oh you mean the outside
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: noise are good? Anyway? Okay, what else am I looking
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: at here? Oh? Right? J T gin is pitching for
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: the Ask, Dude. This is just I gotta find a
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: way to get baseball done faster. This is just so bad.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: And I'm talking about NFL preseason here. This is awful.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: JT ginn He's been alright this year, three point four
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: to one era, one point two to one whip. He's
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: not actually as good at home, even though he's a
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: three point three to one home e R two forty
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: upon a batting average is worse than it is on
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: the road. But he's still not bad at home, and
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: that's because he's not a fly ball pitcher. He induces
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: a decent amount of ground balls. He has a pretty
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: low hit rate. His walks are a huge problem, though
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: he does walk a lot of guys. I'm hearing more
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: shit outside right now, Like, can we just stop with this?
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: Like I don't know, man, it might be like somebody
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: blasting their car radio. I'm not even really sure. Gin
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: Uh doesn't really strike that many guys out, but his
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is okay. Strike out op ratio not
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: good this year, though it's gone down this year because
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: his walk rate's been too bad, even though his whip
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: is better. So he's become less hittable, but he's kind
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: of sacrificing it with some wildness year stregouts per nine.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: Like I said, they're all right, but he pitches okay
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: here at home. His numbers against the Rangers are mediocre
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: in forty nine at bats to sixty five average seven
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: to ninety seven ops is a little bit high, So
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: I don't like that seven to three strike out walk ratio,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: you know. I I think the A's first five might
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: be the way to look in this game again here though,
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: Like I don't think Gore sets up that well. It
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: looks like the money agrees with that one. Go figure
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of the tickets on Texas seventy percent
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the A's. Obviously, I would not
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: back the A's bullpen, but I think you might be
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 2: able to get there with the first five with Gin
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: sneakily over a Gore here. Gore I think is the
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 2: more talented pitcher, though, but I don't think the matchup
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: is good for him, so I would lean that way
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: you'll get them as an underdog. Texas is minus one
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: forty in the full game. Everybody kind of knows Texas
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: is trying to make the playoffs, so you're gonna have
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: to pay more of a price for Texas for that reason.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: So I think that's part of the reason why the
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on the A's totals in nine and
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: a half, the money's coming in on the under, I'm
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: not sure about that. I kind of lean over here.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: I don't like either bullpen. Gore doesn't have the good
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers, isn't good on the road. Gain has some
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: issues as well, and his matchup numbers aren't exactly great.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: So I think there's more There are more indicators towards
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: an over than an under in that one, although I
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: think maybe a's first five maybe the better way to
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: play that. But over, I think it's another option in
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: that one. All right, and I've already given all my
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: plays here, but let's go to a WNBA. I'm not
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: gonna get into the WNBA today. I don't like these games.
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: There's an afternoon game New York at Connecticut. The East
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: Coast rivals here or whatever Connecticut I mean. I think
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: they're moving to Boston or something. I don't know. This
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: has been a bad season for them. They just got
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: absolutely smoked by Atlanta in the last game. But they're
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: staying at home. And when a team gets blown out
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: that embarrassingly a lot of times they will show up
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: and play better in the next game. So I expect
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: a better effort, at least out of Connecticut. Here. New
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: York is obviously the way better team, but New York
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: might overlook them just because Connecticut is a terrible team.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: So I don't think New York is really gonna have
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: that much focus here, although they're coming off a game
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: where they didn't win by much against LA, where I
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: think I forget what the game flow looked like here. Yeah,
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: actually this is a huge comeback for LA, which is
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about that because in a little
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: while as well, because LA is also playing today. But
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: LA was losing this game by a ton, dude. They
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: were losing this game by almost thirty, by twenty seven
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter, by the way, and they came
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: all the way back and cut it to one. That's insane.
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: So the Liberty got a little bit of a scare there.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: So the Liberty might still be focused for that reason.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: But I think it's going to affect LA more so
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: I will talk about that aspect of it. I don't
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: have a good read on this particular game at all,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, you're probably not gonna get any
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: value laying the points with the New York here. Money
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: looks like it is kind of on that side though.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: Eighty five percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: cash laying the eight and a half. I don't know.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: I mean the totals in the low one seventies, kind
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: of a mid range total there the money hitting the under.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 2: It could be one of those get in, get out
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: games for New York, even though because I think they
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: have a bigger game next, Actually do they? They must?
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's nothing, there's nothing that wouldn't be bigger
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: than a game against Connecticut. Probably who are they playing next, Chicago?
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: Actually it's not a big game. I thought it was Indiana,
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: but that's after that. Yeah, I don't really see a
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: great in the I don't have anything on this game. Really.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: Maybe you could slightly lean towards taking the points with Connecticut,
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. I mean, just because they're coming
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: off that embarrassing loss, that might be the way to
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: go with it. I have no idea. Not a good game. Yeah,
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: the WA they have not made a decision on what
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: a woman is. Even though they're the women's basketball league,
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: they have not been able to determine what qualifies you
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: to even be in their league. Like literally the one
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: thing that determines what their entire league is they can't
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: decide what that is. It is just a fucking joke.
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: It is so fucking This league is a fucking joke.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: It should just be disbanded. But if we can make
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: money off of it, that's what we're going to try
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: to do. And of course they're also they're trying to
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: come up with a definition that's a fundamental definition in
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: not only the world of English or really in any language,
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: but in human history and biology. It's it's like one
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: of the most objective definitions out there of any word.
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: What is a woman? It's so obvious. Somebody with female
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: sex chromosomes, that's what it is. That's easy. It's completely ridiculous.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: It is so ridiculous like this, it's I mean, the
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: way that they're handling this, it is such a mockery,
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: all right, not a Colin mockery, who, by the way,
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: I think has like trans kids or something. So even
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: the funny guys from whose line is in any way
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: can't be cool. He's Canadian, So yeah, that probably should
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: have indicated something. Anyway, Washington is probably not really in
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 2: the greatest spot here because they're coming off two big
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: games in Vegas or they played fairly well against Vegas
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: both times, and they failed to cover for US on
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: Thursday by a half point in a game where they
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: played good. They played well enough to cover that, and
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 2: they didn't do it. Now they're returning home. It wasn't
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: a long road trip. They were in Vegas for two games.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: That was the whole road trip. But they're coming back
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: home all the way across the country, which is not
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: that good. So I don't think it's a great spot
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: for them. Well, they overlook LA. I mean, maybe LA
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: is not a good team, but they don't have a
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: big game up next. It's only against Toronto. And you know,
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: I can't play LA because you saw what they just did.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: They're already they're already on the East coast, so that
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 2: will help them. So the travel spot is better for LA.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: They're already adjusted to the time zone. But it's not
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: one of those going west where you have to adjust
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: to the later time zone. Adjusting to an earlier time
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: zone is easier. But LA is already out there. They
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: just played the Liberty. The problem is, you saw what
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: I just showed you. They had a monster comeback in
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: that game. They erased like a twenty seven point deficit
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: all in the fourth quarter and almost won the game
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: and almost pulled off what would have been like an
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: eight or nine point up set. Yeah, I don't think
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: LA is gonna have that much in the tank after that.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: So there's no way that I could play LA here either.
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 2: And I think that is the way the professional money
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 2: is coming is it's coming in on LA. Eighty two
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, seventy six percent of the cash on
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: Washington's Washington's public And I was correct, The money is
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 2: playing LA. The money's hitting the under. I don't really
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 2: care about that. Totals also in the low and seventies.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't really do totals except for baseball,
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: you know. I mean, I'd probably slightly lean LA, just
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: because it is kind of a weird travel spot for Washington.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: Both teams are still coming off big games. Can't do
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: it with LA after that monster performance though. But Washington
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: they're not good as a favorite, you know, They're more
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: of a defensive team, and laying six and a half
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 2: with them probably not something you really want to do.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: So maybe LA might be the right side, an over
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: might be the right side, or that we have ninety
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: two might be the right way to play this, you
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: have ninety two percent of tickets on the under, ninety
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on the under. But when
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: you have two teams in bad spots a lot of
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: times it means the deepfense will be a lackluster and
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 2: maybe the over hits in this one. I don't really
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: want to do that though, because Washington's a good deepfense.
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: LA is not a good defense, but Washington is, so
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: you do at least have one good deepfense here. And
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: then what else? Oh, and then the other thing is, yeah,
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: but the travel that LA is doing that might hurt
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: their offense actually, like you know, having to readjust to
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 2: the new Times on that could slow your offense down
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit. So yeah, definitely leaving that game alone.
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: And then the big game is the CBS Paramount plot,
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: this primetime game between Minnesota and Vegas, which are probably
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 2: the two best teams in the league, Minnesota being the
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: best by quite a big margin. But Vegas has a
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: chance here. I mean this is they're at home and
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 2: this is probably like a one point spread or something.
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 2: Vegas is staying at home off of those wins over
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: Washington that weren't really anything too impressive. The Washington is
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: a decent team. They have a good defense at least.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: Vegas did play Minnesota in Minnesota not too long ago,
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: back on the eighth and they lost. But that was
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: a bad spot for Vegas. Even though it was a
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 2: big game against Minnesota, Vegas had to come into that
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: game with not a lot of rest and they'd played
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: overtime against Indiana prior to that, so the schedule makers
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: kind of helped Minnesota in that game. Minnesota had a
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: much better spot. Vegas lost the game by eleven, so
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: this could be kind of a bounce back. Like you know,
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 2: I don't want to call it revenge. Both teams will
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 2: show up for this, but Vegas might be the team
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: that makes the adjustments, you know what I mean, Now
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: that they're at home, they might be the team with
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit more intensity here as well to try
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: to get this game. Minnesota. I mean, they're really hard
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 2: to beat, There's no doubt about that. In Vegas's defense
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: has kind of faltered this year, so Minnesota actually has
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 2: had the better deep Minnesota is one of the best defenses.
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've had the better defense over Vegas this year.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Vegas might be the better offense out of the too.
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: Well.
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: The Minnesota is a very balanced team anyway. Minnesota, though,
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're in a particularly bad spot because
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: they're already on the Pacific coast. They just played Portland
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 2: and that was that game where they blew that thirty
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 2: point lead or whatever it was. That's why I faded
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 2: Portland last night because Portland had that massive comeback, almost
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: won that game. But it would have been a monster upset,
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: like a twelve thirteen point upset. But on the other
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 2: side of that, you know that should scare Minnesota, like
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: Minnesota was in a bad spot. I pointed that out.
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: I should have given up Portland as a play. But
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: you know it's in hindsight. But Minnesota had played Vegas
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: and Dallas in the two games prior to that and
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: beat them both. They had this big Vegas game up
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: next to so it was a sandwich spot. They played poorly,
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 2: especially in the second half in that game against Portland.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 2: Maybe that will have them focus bouncing back here in
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 2: this game. So it's not a spot where I really
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: want to fade Minnesota either. It's a bad I think
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: it's it's a it's a focused spot for both teams.
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, So I don't know what to do
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: with it other than maybe you could. That means you
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 2: could look towards an under because when you have team
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: a game where both teams are gonna be focused, the
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: total is pretty high at one eighty two and a half.
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: Vegas does play some faster games and they're not really
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: that good on defense, but I think defense will be
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 2: a focus in this game because it's a huge game,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: so the under might make sense. You're getting a high total.
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 2: Like I said, money is coming in towards the under.
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: That might be the better way to look in this game.
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is also really public ninety one percent of tickets,
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the cash, and then they're minus
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: one and a half point favorite here. I'd probably lead
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 2: to Vegas slightly as far as the side is concerned,
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: but I got like pretty much nothing on it. Uh,
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 2: so that's gonna do it. Yeah, no WNBA for me today,
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: and then we do have some NFL here things are
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: not going well. And Atlanta, I'll tell you that I
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: thought Atlanta was one of the better sides to look
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: at yesterday in these games, and they completely shit the
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: bed two to zero was awful. I don't know what
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: else to tell you, man, Atlanta. Yeah, I mean they
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: might be better than people are saying they will be
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: right now, but I don't like it. I don't like Stefanski.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else to say about it. The
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: other games were kind of went more like I kind
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: of thought they would sort of. I thought the Jets
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 2: would win at least though, which did not happen. Anyway,
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: we have a lot of preseason games here, seven games.
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna give out any preseason plays just because
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: it's too chaotic, but I guess we'll run through them quick.
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: Carolina at Buffalo. Buffalo is Saint Josh Allen is going
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: to play in this game, and sometimes that does happen
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 2: now that we have three preseason games instead of four.
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: But if he is, he's only going to play one series,
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 2: and then, yeah, you don't want to get him hurt.
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: So that might skew the line a little bit here
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: in this one. Buffalo is only a three point favorite
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: here though, so it's not really skewing the line that much.
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 2: And they are getting the money. He's seventy one percent
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on them.
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure, though, because Josh Allen will only
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: be in there a very little bit at most, and
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 2: then it's gonna be Kyle Allen and then Shane Buckley.
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: How do you pronounce his name? I forget bou Kelly.
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: I forget how he pronounced that guy boosh Lee. I
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 2: don't know. I forget how he pronounced his name Bouchelle.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: I should know because he was on Hard Knocks when
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: Hard Knocks did Buffalo. They're doing Seattle this year. By
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 2: the way, the first episode was decent anyway. These two
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 2: guys at least do have some experience in the NFL, though,
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: so they are experienced quarterbacks. I don't know how good
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 2: they are, though, And you know that in preseason the
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 2: quarterback rotation is one of the most important things to
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 2: try to kind of figure out what's gonna happen in
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 2: this game, although you don't really know how the quarterbacks
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 2: are gonna be used. But I like Carolina in this game,
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 2: and part of it is that Carolina already has a
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 2: game under their belt. They played in the Hall of
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 2: Fame game, and while they looked good and they won
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: the game, but I think having that game already under
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: your belt going to help you because they already kind
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 2: of know what they're running. It will give Buffalo some
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: film to look at. But Carolina, you know, I think
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 2: they have the same coach as last year, right, So
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're really changing a whole lot that
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: they did last year. Buffalo, correct me if I'm wrong.
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 2: But Buffalo has a new coach, right, I think they
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 2: fired McDermott. If I'm not mistaken, I'll have to look
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 2: that up. But I'm saying that because teams with new
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 2: coaches do usually play with more effort in the first
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 2: preseason game because they want to they take it more seriously,
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: you know, and they want to get their offense running
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 2: and stuff like that, get their new schemes running. And
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of times the opposing team won't know what
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 2: to expect from that new coaching staff that's going on there,
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 2: which so that might be a little bit of an
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 2: edge to Buffalo here. But I think I like Carolina.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 2: I think their quarterback rotation is actually better. I don't
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 2: know if Bryce Young is going to be in this
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: game or not. Kenny Pickett I don't think he's good,
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: but he's at least experienced. And then Haines King looked
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: pretty good in the Hall of Fame game, and he's
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 2: a dual threat quarterback, so that can kind of throw
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: off defenses when they have to deal with that and
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 2: stuff like that. King might get a decent amount of
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 2: playing time here man, because he might be a guy
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: they're considering as a future quarterback here, and then Trask
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: is their fourth quarterback. I don't know if that really matters.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: I kinda like Carolina here though, just a very slight
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 2: opinion for me. Cleveland and Chicago. I mean, nobody's gonna
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: want Cleveland, I'll tell you that. Chicago. I mean, of course,
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: we know they have Caleb Williams. I don't know if
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: he's gonna play at all in this game. They're not
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 2: gonna play much. But I actually like Tyson Beagen a
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: lot like I think Beigen is good, and I'm gonna
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: be honest, I think he's better than Caleb Williams. You know,
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 2: I'm not a Caleb Williams fan. I think he's massively overrated.
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 2: You know. I gave out the Bears under their season
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 2: win totals one of my best season win total plays,
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 2: possibly the best, and I got some agreement from a
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: Vegas runner on a wager talk watching some of their
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 2: NFL stuff. He has come out and agreed with that place.
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 2: So I'm like, hell yeah, I think I'm thinking about
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: things right here. But Beigen will be in this game.
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 2: He's good. And then they have case Key in him,
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: who's a very experienced quarterback as well, and then Miller Moss.
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to think of him. I mean,
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: he's pretty young, he came out of USC. I think
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 2: this might be his second year in the NFL. But
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: I like this bears quarterback rotation at least in this game.
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 2: Beijen is awesome, dude, and his his father is a
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: professional arm wrestler, I believe as well. Pretty awesome stuff. Yeah, dude, Beijing,
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 2: I think he should be a starter somewhere in the NFL,
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 2: perhaps Cleveland. I think he's better than all of Cleveland starters.
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 2: Man Cleveland, we know what their quarterback room looks like.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: It's complete ass. Deshaun Watson is going to be their starter,
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 2: and I think he should be rightfully so. I mean,
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 2: he's got experience in the NFL and he just his
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 2: career got derailed because you know, he was getting hand
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: jobs at massage Parlors and whatever. He's going to be
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 2: their starter at least to start the season. I honestly,
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 2: I hope he does well for Cleveland's sake at least,
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 2: because you know what I think. I don't think Shuldar
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 2: Sanders is any good at all. I don't think Dylan
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 2: Gabriel is any good at all. Taylor Green, who knows.
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: He's a rookie. They drafted him out of Arkansas. He's
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: got some talent, but I don't know. I don't know
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: what to expect out him. He did face sec defenses
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 2: at the very least. But yeah, this is an ass
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: quarterback room though. Man to me, so I like the
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 2: Bears in this game. I think their quarterback rotation is
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 2: way better. And the money's completely disagreeing with me. Seventy
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 2: two percent of tickets on Chicago, eighty percent of the
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 2: cash on Cleveland. But of course, you know, the public
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 2: is definitely not gonna play Cleveland, There's no way. But
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's a three and a half boy favorite, and you
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 2: know that should tell me not to play Chicago, right,
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 2: because why the hell would Cleveland be a three and
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 2: a half boy favorite. Some of it is that Chicago
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 2: must not be playing any of their starters, you know,
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 2: but even if they're not, like I showed you who
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 2: they're quarterbacks are, I think that's a lot better than
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 2: what Cleveland has going on. So I would lean towards Chicago,
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: like I yeah, I mean yeah, the market Reid says Cleveland.
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 2: It looks way too easy to play Chicago, so I
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 2: certainly wouldn't recommend it as a play. But to me,
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 2: I think their quarterback rotation is way better. Cleveland does
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 2: have a new coach, though, so don't forget that. So again,
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: they might play a little bit harder with the new
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 2: coaching scheme, coaching schemes and stuff there. Cleveland is still
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 2: a pretty good defense, So there is that we forget
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 2: about that. But throughout this whole time where Cleveland's been
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 2: a bad team, their defense has been pretty solid. Minnesota
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 2: at the Giants, let's go. I haven't talked to Ben
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 2: about the the g Spot podcast. So though it is
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 2: only preseason, you know who has a new coach, the Giants, Harbaugh.
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 2: And if you remember, Harbaugh's thing was he wanted to
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 2: win every preseason game when he was you remember he
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 2: had that run on the Ravens where he's I think
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 2: he set a record for the longest win streak as
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 2: a head coach in the preseason, and then when he
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 2: finally lost, did he kind of stop caring. But I
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna care so Harball. I think he's gonna
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 2: care about this and be ready for this, you know,
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: so he usually coaches to win in the preseason. I
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 2: don't think we're gonna see Dart, probably because he will
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 2: be the starter of the Giants, but you'll probably see
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 2: a decent amount of Jameis Winston. I like Winston, dude.
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's got a lot of experience. He's a
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 2: I think he's got a really good arm. Like his
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 2: problem has always been he just makes bad decisions and
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 2: throws interceptions. I think Winston should be a starter somewhere,
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 2: to be honest, But I do like him as a
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 2: mentor to the Jackson Dart too. Winston's also really fun,
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 2: Like he's just hilarious. So I don't mind this Giants
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: quarterback situation. You're Brandon Allen, I don't know. I mean,
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 2: he's he's got experience at least, but yeah, if Winston's
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 2: gonna be out there, I don't mind that. Minnesota. They've
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 2: decided that Kyler Murray is going to be their starter,
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 2: but of course that might make JJ McCarthy more motivated.
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 2: And Minnesota. Their quarterback situation is not exactly bad here.
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: It's not in although I don't think McCarthy's good, but
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 2: he'll be motivated at the very least because Kyler Murray
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: has won the starting job. So you're gonna see a
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: lot of McCarthy here trying to make his coach maybe second,
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 2: maybe maybe well, what's the word I'm looking for, trying
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 2: to you know, make his coach second? Guess that decision.
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 2: Carson Wentz is also still on the roster, even though
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 2: he got hurt last year, and he's kind of an
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 2: older dude now, but he's also he's a very experienced
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 2: quarterback though. And then they have Max Brosmer. I don't
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 2: know what to expect out of him. He's played in
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 2: the NFL, but it hasn't gone. Well, what do we
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 2: do with this game? I don't fucking know, dude. The
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 2: Giants are getting the money. Minnesota is a one and
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 2: a half point favorite. Public will probably kind of lean
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: towards Minnesota because they've been the way better team than
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: the Giants. Recently, and the public probably is gonna be
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 2: on the Kyler Murray hype train a little bit here,
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent of tickets, seventy six percent of the
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 2: cash on the Giants, though, I'll probably lean Giants just
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 2: because new coach Harbaugh plays to win usually. I don't
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 2: really like Brandon Allen though, and Minnesota does have kind
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 2: of a deeper quarterback rotation, So I don't know. Anna
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 2: not Anna Anaheim. I'm I'm in baseball mode all the time.
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: And La Rams at Kansas City. Kansas City Mahomes will
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 2: be back from his injury, but I don't think he's
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 2: playing in preseason. Why would they play him. They don't
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: want to get him injured again, and obviously he has
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 2: so much experience they won't use him. But they have
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 2: justin fields who does have experience, so he'll be in
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 2: the game here probably. I don't think he's good, but
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 2: he has NFL experience a lot of it. And they
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 2: drafted Garrett Nussmeier out of LSU, and Nussmeyer interesting, I
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 2: think because he was pretty good at LSU, and then
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 2: the reason why he was such ass last year I
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 2: think was because he wasn't healthy. Like if you saw
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 2: his Gruden quarterback camp. He talked about that and how
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 2: he had injuries throughout that entire season and tried to
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 2: play through the whole thing. And then they have oladop
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 2: un Altakon however he pronounce his name. He played a
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 2: little bit last year after Mahomes went down. I don't know,
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 2: but this it's decent quarterback experience. I would say decent
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 2: depth here for Kansas City. Of course, they don't have
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 2: a coaching change or anything like that, and neither do
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 2: the Rams. But we know, you know, these are top
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 2: tiers starting quarterbacks here that are likely not in this game.
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford for the Rams. Obviously, the Rams drafted Tys Simpson,
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 2: so I think you're gonna see a lot of him
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: in this game. They're gonna want to see what they
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 2: have with him. Although he's listed behind Stetson Bennett the fourth,
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 2: Who the fuck is that? I do? I seriously have
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 2: no I have no clue, no clue he's I have
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 2: no idea. I guess he's played in the NFL a
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 2: little bit. Maybe I don't remember it. I don't recognize
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 2: the name. It looks like he's twenty eight and he
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 2: went to Georgia got drafted into twenty twenty three by
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 2: the Rams. That's news to me. But he's gonna be
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 2: in the mix, I guess. And then they have Matthew
• 2:01:57
  Speaker 2: called Well, who I don't remember. I don't remember much
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 2: about him. Yeah, he's a really young guy. Looks like
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 2: he was at Texas, but he must have been a
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 2: backup at Texas. I don't know much about him. But Simpson,
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 2: I think is gonna get a lot of the playing
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 2: time here because he's the guy they drafted like possibly
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 2: to be the next guy after Matthew Stafford. You know,
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 2: he only played one year in college, so we'll see.
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 2: He was at Alabama, I believe, right, Yeah, I think
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 2: he might be good. Like I don't know, man, I
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 2: watched his Gruden quarterback camp. I try to gauge what
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 2: I think these quarterbacks are gonna be in the NFVEL,
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 2: and I think sometimes I get it right. You know,
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 2: I think I was right about saying that Jackson Dart
• 2:02:38
  Speaker 2: would be good. I think Carson Beck is gonna be good.
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 2: So we'll see if that happens. Simpson. Maybe we'll see
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 2: what he can do here. But I don't mind that
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 2: in this game. I don't know, man. I mean, I
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 2: probably still kind of in Kansas City though, and the
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 2: money is agreeing with that. Kansas City is a slight favorite.
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 2: You know, the public wants nothing to do with Kansas
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 2: City because the way they finished last year was awful,
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 2: and of course Mahomes is not going to play in
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 2: this game. I would imagine seventy six percent of the
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 2: tickets are on the Rams, sixty five percent of the
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: cash on Kansas City. But you know, the public is
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 2: still they want to go with what they saw last
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 2: and the Rams looked good. And the Rams, of course,
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 2: there's all this hype around them now because you know,
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 2: they had a good offseason and the Rams are now
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 2: the favorite to win the Super Bowl. The odds on favorite,
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 2: I mean there's still like five to one probably, but
• 2:03:25
  Speaker 2: the Rams have the best odds to win the Super Bowl,
• 2:03:28
  Speaker 2: so the public is on the hype train. I think
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's under the radar, man. As I mentioned with
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 2: my NFL Futures show that I did, it wasn't one
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 2: of my plays, but one of the first one that
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 2: I left off my card, I think was Kansas City
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 2: to go over their season win total. Like I don't
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 2: really hate that. Like, as long as Mahomes doesn't get
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 2: hurt again, I think Kansas City should be in contention
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 2: this year again, all right, Jacksonville and New Orleans. Probably
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville's going to get the public action here because they
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 2: looked good last year and they made the playoffs and whatever.
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 2: But you're gonna be watching, you know. Again, It's mostly
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 2: gonna be backup quarterbacks here. So for New Orleans, Tyler
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 2: Shuck is their quarterback here and he looks like he
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: might be good dude, so it'll be interesting to see
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 2: what he can do this year. I'm a little bit
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 2: high on him, to be honest, and kind of high
• 2:04:19
  Speaker 2: on New Orleans this year just for that reason. I
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 2: think they have a shot to win this shitty division
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 2: they're in. But today it's gonna be Spencer Ratler, Zach Wilson,
• 2:04:27
  Speaker 2: and then whoever the hell Hunter Deckers is. But Rattler
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 2: and Wilson both have experience. Wilson has an experience banging
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 2: other dudes moms, so we know that. So I do
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 2: like that. Rattler has never really been good, but he
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 2: does have experience at least, so it's an experienced quarterback
• 2:04:44
  Speaker 2: room there at least Jacksonville. Both teams I don't think
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 2: are changing coaches as far as I know. Jacksonville definitely won't.
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 2: After Liam Cohen had a great first season for Jacksonville.
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence is obviously their starter. He's probably not playing here.
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 2: Then I don't really know the last two guys here.
• 2:05:01
  Speaker 2: I do know who Nick Mullins is, very funny comedian.
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 2: Oh wait, no, Nick Mullins. He's got some NFL experience.
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 2: He was on Minnesota for a while. He's played, so
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 2: he'll probably get a lot of the action here for Jacksonville.
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 2: Then I have no idea who Carter Bradley and Joey
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 2: Agyar are. So aguilar, I have no clue. I kind
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 2: of like New Orleans in this one. They're favored, and
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: again the public, like I said, they're on Jacksonville because
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 2: the public is just looking at which team was better
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 2: last year? Oh, yeah, which is Jacksonville. Which team is
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be better this year? Yeah, that's probably Jacksonville.
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 2: But this is preseason, man, and you look at those
• 2:05:40
  Speaker 2: quarterback rotations, you gotta think New Orleans has the better one.
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 2: Seventy percent of the tickets are on Jacksonville. Sixty percent
• 2:05:46
  Speaker 2: of the cash on New Orleans. New Orleans is also favored,
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 2: so that kind of tells you something. The public's gonna think, Well,
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 2: I'm getting the better team. The Jags is the underdog here,
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 2: so that's what they're gonna do. Yeah, I mean no,
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 2: I like the same there, and I think the Saints
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 2: might surprise people as well this year. Like I said,
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 2: so over the top, I don't think I know what
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 2: that movie is. No, I have not seen that. I
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 2: don't think Philadelphia Baltimore this will be an interesting one.
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams are supposed to be good this year.
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 2: Baltimore has a new coach, so that might motivate them
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 2: in this game. Of course, you know the again, it's
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 2: a good angle first preseason game. Look for the new
• 2:06:27
  Speaker 2: coach to pull out some new things and whatever. I
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 2: don't think Lamar Jackson will play here, but we do
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 2: have Tyler Huntley here. He's got a lot of experience
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 2: in the NFL and he knows Baltimore's system well though
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a new system this year, but Huntley
• 2:06:44
  Speaker 2: has been Lamar Jackson's backup for a huge amount of
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 2: his career. Then they have Joey Fanano. Fagnano, No Fognano,
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 2: mister Italian. I don't even know who Wait, I do
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: know who he is. He went to Yukon. Yeah, that's right.
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 2: He was pretty good in college at Yukon. So we
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 2: will see what Finano. I should know, I should know
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 2: how to pronounce it because I am Italian. Fognano whatever. Yeah, him.
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 2: And then they have Austin Reed, who I think it's
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 2: played a little bit in he was on the Bears
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 2: for a while. He's out of Western Kentucky. I think
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 2: he's played a little bit. Yeah, I know who he is.
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 2: He's played a little bit in the NFL as well,
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: at least in pre season. Not a horrible rotation for
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 2: the for the Ravens here, I would say Philadelphia, we
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 2: know Jalen Hurts is their starter. We know they have
• 2:07:32
  Speaker 2: not changed their coaching or anything like that. They have
• 2:07:35
  Speaker 2: Andy Dalton, they have the the Red Rocket or whatever
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 2: you call him. He's got a lot of experience, so
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 2: he'll probably be in the game. Tanner McKee will probably
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 2: be in the mix too, because he's younger and he's
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 2: been in this Eagles system since they drafted him a
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 2: couple of years ago probably, so maybe some okay experience here.
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 2: Plus McKee knows the system. He'll be out there, you know,
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 2: trying to do well because he might be considered to
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 2: be the guy in line for Philadelphia and then Cole Payton.
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 2: I have no idea who that is. But yeah, I mean,
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 2: the quarterback rotation's decent for both teams. I'm gonna lean
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 2: to the Ravens though public looks like they're on the
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 2: Ravens though sixty six percent of tickets on them. I
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 2: didn't expect that because Baltimore didn't look good at the
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 2: end of last year and then they wound up missing
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, you know what I mean. But a lot
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 2: of it was because Lamar Jackson was hurt, but then
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 2: he looked like he just didn't want to play, and
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 2: that's a problem. So I think there was a problem
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 2: between him and Harbass. So Baltimore, a lot of what
• 2:08:32
  Speaker 2: they do this year is gonna depend on will Lamar
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 2: Jackson mesh with the new quarterback, with the new coach.
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 2: Excuse me, we will see. But ninety three percent of
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 2: the cash on Philadelphia here, I don't really agree with that.
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 2: Like I actually thought the pubblic would be on the
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 2: Eagles because they had the better season last year. Everybody
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 2: pretty much knows they're a contender pretty much every year.
• 2:08:49
  Speaker 2: I think Baltimore should be a contender again this year,
• 2:08:52
  Speaker 2: but we will say they definitely do have some question
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 2: marks though. But I like Baltimore in this game. I
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 2: think the starting I think the quarterback rotation is a
• 2:08:59
  Speaker 2: little bit better, and I like the new coach trying
• 2:09:02
  Speaker 2: to win the game. I think there's more motivation there.
• 2:09:05
  Speaker 2: Then we have Dallas and Seattle, and neither of these
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: teams changed their coach after last year. Dallas is trying
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 2: to get things going under what is it Brian Schottenheimer there.
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 2: Seattle with Mike McDonald obviously did a really good job
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 2: with them last year. Sam Donald, I assume will not
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 2: play here. They have Drew Lock, who does have a
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 2: lot of experience, not necessarily a great quarterback, but he's
• 2:09:28
  Speaker 2: been in the NFL for quite a while. And then
• 2:09:30
  Speaker 2: they have Jalen Milrow out of Alabama, who I don't
• 2:09:33
  Speaker 2: think has played very much in the NFL and he's
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 2: still pretty young. So we'll see what that quarterback duo
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 2: can do in this game against the Dallas Cowboys, who
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 2: obviously their starter as Dak Prescott. He probably won't play
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 2: in this game. But they have Joe Milton the third,
• 2:09:48
  Speaker 2: who actually doesn't look that bad to me, like he
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 2: was on the Patriots for a little while, played a
• 2:09:53
  Speaker 2: little bit, I don't know, a couple of years ago.
• 2:09:56
  Speaker 2: And then they have Sam Howell, who does have experience.
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 2: I think I think he's been around for a while, right,
• 2:10:02
  Speaker 2: Actually not as long as I thought, a couple of years.
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know if I really love
• 2:10:07
  Speaker 2: this rotation here though, for the Cowboys. But you know,
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 2: the public's gonna play Seattle here, right, Well, let's say
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: fifty nine percent of the tickets are on Dallas, but
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 2: more of the money's on Dallas. Eighty percent of the
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 2: cash on Dallas. To me, it seems like the public
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 2: will come in on Seattle, right because they're the Super
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 2: Bowl winner. That's what people are gonna do. They're gonna
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 2: overlook Dallas because Dallas has been kind of a laughing
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 2: stock the last few years. I think maybe Dallas is
• 2:10:32
  Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit of an under the radar
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 2: team here. I'd probably mean Dallas here, but I don't
• 2:10:37
  Speaker 2: really think they have the better quarterback ten. I mean,
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It's close. Like I don't love either
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 2: quarterback tandem here that's gonna be involved in this game,
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. And then the other thing I
• 2:10:46
  Speaker 2: will point out with all these games is the totals
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 2: are low in these first preseason games, though they've gone
• 2:10:52
  Speaker 2: up in recent years, Like the totals have been getting
• 2:10:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit higher in recent years because these games
• 2:10:57
  Speaker 2: tend to be lower scoring because the offense sometimes take
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 2: a little while to get going. But what I've been
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 2: saying is that when you have young quarterbacks that you
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 2: think are gonna be like showcased, because like Ty Simpson
• 2:11:09
  Speaker 2: for example, I think those games might have more of
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 2: a tendency to go over the total, even though that
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 2: particular game whereas at LA, yeah, that game does have
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 2: money coming in on the over by the way rams
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 2: in Kansas City. I think it's because of things like that,
• 2:11:23
  Speaker 2: like those quarterbacks you know, might go out and actually
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 2: play hard and like, you know, actually show something, you
• 2:11:31
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. So that's kind of the new
• 2:11:33
  Speaker 2: way that the NFL operates. But I think the lower
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 2: scoring games tend to be the ones where you have
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 2: the experienced quarterbacks that just don't really have anything to show,
• 2:11:41
  Speaker 2: and they're just think those teams kind of tend to
• 2:11:43
  Speaker 2: go more vanilla on offense, you know what I mean,
• 2:11:46
  Speaker 2: Then you just don't want to really show anything and
• 2:11:48
  Speaker 2: show what they plan to do. But of course, if
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 2: the team is showcasing one of their quarterbacks, that's not
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 2: gonna be the starter to start the season. I think
• 2:11:55
  Speaker 2: they're they're more likely to just unleash stuff with that
• 2:11:58
  Speaker 2: quarterback because it might not be plays that they're actually
• 2:12:00
  Speaker 2: gonna run with their actual starting quarterback either. So there
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 2: you go. What Finano, I mean, he's a that's a
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 2: you know, it's it's it's he's a DEI higher he's
• 2:12:15
  Speaker 2: he's a gay NFL player. No, I don't think he is.
• 2:12:18
  Speaker 2: All Right, that's gonna do it really long show here
• 2:12:21
  Speaker 2: at the end. I was thinking of doing the NFL
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 2: preseason stuff last night, but I don't know. I mean,
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 2: I don't give out any plays on it. I just
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 2: did the show a little bit earlier today to get
• 2:12:29
  Speaker 2: it done, and I'm gonna leave soon. The only plays
• 2:12:32
  Speaker 2: I got today are in baseball run the Detroit Tiger's
• 2:12:35
  Speaker 2: money line and Milwaukee Brewer's money line. The market doesn't
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 2: agree with either of them. I agree with myself though,
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 2: and I think we have the best starting pitching matchups
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 2: to go within those two. So let's do it. Learn
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 2: it tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram. I
• 2:12:50
  Speaker 2: don't know if I'm able to say these platform names.
• 2:12:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Uh, you can go to patreon dot
• 2:12:55
  Speaker 2: com and subscribe, subscribe to me there and not throwing
• 2:12:58
  Speaker 2: some support that way, like subscribe to all the things
• 2:13:01
  Speaker 2: on the channel here, give me good replies, boost this channel.
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 2: That will help. Obviously, we're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 2: listening over there, housing out as well, covered in you
• 2:13:10
  Speaker 2: because my ukule lely channel on YouTube. You can check
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 2: that out as well. Loser Cast every Tuesday. We have
• 2:13:16
  Speaker 2: a couple of obvious losers for this week already, and
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna take one of the two probably
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 2: and then what else? Oh yeah, the g spot podcast,
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 2: I mean football starting, So I got to talk to Ben.
• 2:13:29
  Speaker 2: He's been busy as a husband and father, but I
• 2:13:32
  Speaker 2: don't know, Well, I'll talk to him and try to
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 2: figure something out there with that, and maybe Adam Nutterer
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 2: will actually do the show with us as well. I
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 2: don't know. We'll see. That's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody,
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 2: thanks for hanging out, Bald. We will see. Clint is
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 2: gonna be over here on Friday, briefly before he leaves
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 2: for the tom Cruise, the Tom Woods Cruise. I don't know.
• 2:13:58
  Speaker 2: I don't think we could do it live because I
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 2: don't have a multi mike set up here though, because
• 2:14:01
  Speaker 2: I was thinking that would be cool if we did
• 2:14:03
  Speaker 2: like a live show here. Maybe we can find a
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 2: way of doing it. But I don't know because I
• 2:14:07
  Speaker 2: only have a one mic set up here and my
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 2: device only allows for one mic, so I don't know
• 2:14:15
  Speaker 2: unless we could share the mic and be really gay,
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 2: do like the Beatles thing? Yeah, no, I don't know.
• 2:14:19
  Speaker 2: It sounds very gay. I'll talk to Clint. Maybe maybe
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 2: he'll come on the show and we'll do like a
• 2:14:24
  Speaker 2: normal episode of it. I don't know, we'll see. That's
• 2:14:27
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. Peace On. Because you mentioned Ball that
• 2:14:32
  Speaker 2: will also be doing preview shows again. I'll probably do
• 2:14:35
  Speaker 2: another NFL previews show right before the season starts. I'm
• 2:14:38
  Speaker 2: gonna do a college one at some point before college starts,
• 2:14:41
  Speaker 2: within the next like week and a half. Or so
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 2: so preview in college football. I did a little bit
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 2: of research at least, so I know a little bit
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 2: about what's going on in the college landscape now. So
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 2: at least I think I could talk about it a
• 2:14:53
  Speaker 2: little bit. That's gonna do it. Peace.
• 2:14:59
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone, let
• 2:15:03
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, Let somebody know.
• 2:15:07
  Speaker 4: You do not have to lose this round longe. Hold on,
• 2:15:18
  Speaker 4: hold on, nothing nice, not now. Hold on. Hold on.
• 2:15:28
  Speaker 4: Let me pull you out that bad luck by time,
• 2:15:37
  Speaker 4: but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on,
• 2:15:45
  Speaker 4: stay with me, nine, hold on, hold on, You're still here.