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Best Bets Today | LeBron Is Helicoptering to Home Games?! NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Tuesday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Well, I wound up having a 13-1 NFL pick-em week
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: this week. Gave you guys all that info on the show. And,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: of course, the only loser, as I ranted about yesterday,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: was the Dallas Cowboys, which was my favorite play of
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the week and one of my three actual plays. It's
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: just the way it goes, man. I ranted about it already.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I don't want to rant about it any further. But
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: a bunch of you guys in the comments hating on
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: my Washington defense spread lean in the game last night.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: All right. None of those people are going to come
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: back and apologize or admit that I was right.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Go ahead.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to, you want to go
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: against me, I'm right more often than I'm wrong. So
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: got that one. Correct. Washington had a chance to win
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: the game last night too. And I know people are
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: bashing Dan Quinn for not going for the field goal
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: near the end. I mean, I kind of agree. Like
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: when they had the fourth and eight, And they had
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: their timeouts left at that point. I think they had
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: two timeouts plus the two-minute warning still. At that point,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: fourth and eight is such a low percentage shot to
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: convert that. I think that, yeah, they probably should have
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: kicked the field goal there and then played to get
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: the ball back. They did wind up getting the ball
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: back again. Although, I mean, in a way, it does
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: make sense. I'm trying to, like, I'd have to look
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: and see what the math looks like on that because, again, like,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: they got the ball back and they still had another chance.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: And either way, they They needed to score. They either
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: were going to need to score twice just to tie
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the game, or one score would win them the game, basically,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: with the touchdown, assuming they get the extra points. So,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: in a way, maybe the math still does work out
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: in favor of Dan Quinn there. And they almost had
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: it at the end with that Hail Mary, basically, that
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: was nearly caught in the end zone. That would have
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: been crazy, but whatever. We got the cover right. Today's
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: NBA opening day. My team is playing. I'm going to
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: discuss that game. I'm going to give out a play
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: in the NBA. We have LeBron, being LeBron, I guess,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: some weird travel circumstances around his situation. He's playing today
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: as well. And it's, yeah, all three NBA games are big.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about them. We got an NHL slate to
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: break down. I have one pick over there, too. One
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: play and one There's some kind of ugly college football tonight.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: That's what we're going to talk about today, coming up
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: after the intro. You got a.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: Slip in your palm and a hole in your chest
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head Now
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: you stare at the chips like they made you this
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: mad But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: the floor Your name still means something to somebody for
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: sure Put the glass down, baby look at me now
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: hold on.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Uh i don't know what that that was weird uh
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: all right the intro apparently didn't work i'm dealing with
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: some new interest it looks like it's the right yeah
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: i don't know what that was it looks like it's
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the right uh length i apologize for that but all
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: right um Welcome back, everybody. What do I usually say
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: at the beginning? That completely threw me off. What's up, everybody?
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, whatever day it is. Tuesday,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: October 10th. 20th, excuse me. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. I'm all over the place today. I
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: think I got nothing else. We can just start breaking
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: this thing down. Let's get into this. We have hockey,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of hockey, because it's Tuesday.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: San Jose-Montreal is the first game up. San Jose is
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: on a back-to-back. They lost yesterday at Toronto. That was
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: a correct lean for me on the show yesterday. I
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: figured San Jose on the back-to-back, I thought they put
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: more weight into this game against Montreal than they would
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: against Toronto. There was a reason why Toronto was actually
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: favored in that game, despite having the lesser record. But
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: now San Jose has got to turn around and play
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: another day in a row here against a Montreal team
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: that has more rest here. Montreal is coming off beating
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Buffalo again. So Buffalo has not been able to get
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: their playoff revenge for Montreal eliminating them from the playoffs
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: last year. They played two of the last three games
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: and Montreal won both games four to three in overtime
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: and or shootout. Kind of a big win for Montreal,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: but still they've rested for a couple of days here.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to necessarily say that I think they're
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot here. San Jose on the back
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: to back, but you know that the team on the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: back to back It gets a little bit overrated, I think,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: in the market, even though I don't really love playing
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: on teams that are on the back-to-back. But you can
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: see Montreal, they're really jacked up on the price here,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: up to like minus 200, minus 205. So you pretty
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: much know some of that has to do with the
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: rest edge, even though, yeah, Montreal, they are the better team.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. But this price is heavier
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: because of the rest that they have here. 87% of
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on them and 80% of the money.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: So Montreal's a public side. with less of the money
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: on them. The market read is saying to lean towards
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: San Jose here. I mean, the over might be an
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: option here. The total looks like the over is getting
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of money here, actually, and it's a high total,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: six and a half. That's usually how I lean when
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are kind of in bad spots.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Like San Jose might be tired off of yesterday's game.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: That can lead to worse defense, typically, so that lends
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: itself towards an over. Montreal, though, with a couple days off,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: their defense might be more ready to go here, but
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: it was another kind of big win for them. So
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: they could be a little bit unfocused potentially. And that
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: also tends to lead to worse deep. And so I
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: think maybe the over makes more sense than anything else there.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: The money is saying to take San Jose, probably, I
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: guess I'm like a puck line around plus one and
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: a half. I would not want to, uh, do that though. Um,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: you're heading to Idaho, Idaho falls, the spud Kings.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: What happened to spud, uh, Former Tower Game fan, Spud Ruckus.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Where's she at, man? Hope she's doing all right. Haven't
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: seen her around in a while. Oh, that's a minor league.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I thought you were saying minor league baseball, minor league hockey.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: All right. Yeah, minor league baseball is probably over for
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the season. Calvin, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Next
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: game is Colorado at New Jersey. You might think Colorado
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: should be in a bounce back because they just lost
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: to the Philadelphia Flyers. That's a pretty ugly loss. The
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Flyers lost. Actually winning some games now. I think they've
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: won two games in a row. That was yesterday. Colorado
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: now on a back-to-back. But they had a couple days
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: off before that, so I don't think the back-to-back is
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: necessarily that bad. What might be bad, though, is Colorado's
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: next game is back home against Tampa Bay. There is
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: a potential look ahead there because Tampa Bay is hot
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: to start the season. So they might be a team
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: that attracts more attention. However, I still don't think Colorado
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: is going to be that unfocused here. They don't want
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: to go 0-2 on this quick road trip here. It's
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: a short travel leg, at least, between yesterday and today
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: for Philly and New Jersey. They'll switch to Wedgwood in
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: net here, which I don't think is that much of
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: a downgrade, really, even though they're only 1-1 with him
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: in net right now. Well, 1-0-1. The loss was to
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: a good Dallas team, though. So I'm not going to
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: count out Colorado here, but they will be a big favorite,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I think. Actually, they're not that big of a favorite
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: on the road here against New Jersey. New Jersey's coming
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: off a game against the Capitals. That's kind of a
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: big game too, although I believe New Jersey was down
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: 4-1 in that game late, so it wasn't really like
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: they had a chance to win. But they actually kind
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: of outplayed Washington in this game. So statistically, this game
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: was not what it looked like on the scoreboard. New
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Jersey won the face-offs. They had more shots in the game.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Part of that was because they were losing, though. Like
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: the entire third period, they were down 4-1. So that's
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why they had so many shots
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: in the game. Like you just start getting desperate eventually.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Washington is a good team, though. Still kind of a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: big game for New Jersey. What do we do off
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: of that? New Jersey did not have to play yesterday, though.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: They're returning home, but only from a single-game road trip,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: so I don't consider that to be a road trip
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: return where the typical distractions would come into play or whatever.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: They're not going to overlook Colorado here, but Colorado looks
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: like they are getting the money, and it's kind of
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: a toss-up line here. It's like a pick-em price, which
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: is kind of insane, but that's because of the rest
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: of Again, the lack of rest is getting factored into
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: the line maybe a little bit too much because Colorado
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: would be a bigger favorite if they were not on
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back, and it looks like they're actually getting the money.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: 75% of tickets, 95% of the cash on them. I
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: think I would lean New Jersey here. I mean, maybe
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: that's just the way that I look at things. I'm
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: always being contrarian, but I'm looking at this line. It
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: looks so easy to take Colorado. I'd pick the winner price.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Who's not going to take Colorado with that type of price?
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Even if it is a
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: little bit discounted correctly because of the rest disadvantage they're
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: in here. Yeah, I don't know. I'd kind of lean
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: New Jersey there, but I don't love that. I don't
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: love the hockey board today at all. I do have
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: one play, though, in the later games. Anaheim at the Islanders.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is already in New York. They played the Rangers.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I think that was yesterday. too, wasn't it? It was.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: The Rangers back on the winning side with another win,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: 5-2 yesterday over Anaheim. Anaheim's lost three in a row.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Anaheim on a back-to-back. They had a couple days off
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: before that, but they did have to travel across the country.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Now they're staying in New York, though, so the back-to-back
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: isn't maybe as bad as you would think. They're going
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: to switch back to their primary goalie for this one,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Dostal Huso, played yesterday. So probably it will help them
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: that Dostal will be back in net here. He's the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: better goalie. So that's something to consider here. The Islanders,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: and it could be a bounce back for Anaheim after
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: another ugly loss. The Islanders are coming off a win
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: over the Maple Leafs. They've had a day or two off,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I think, and they're returning home from a road trip.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: But it's a short road trip. They went to Ottawa,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Toronto Thursday and Saturday. They're coming back home from that.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: They've had two days off here. I still don't really
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: like the return home spot because you're away for a while.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: You come back home. You have stuff to get done
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: at home. It's possible maybe you don't pay full attention
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: to your opponent depending on who it is. Yeah, this one,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: to me, this one, I kind of like Anaheim in
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: this one. Let me see. Even though they're on the back-to-back,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: you'll be getting a little bit of a shorter price
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: on them 69% of the tickets are on the Islanders
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: and 63% of the money. Anaheim's about a minus 150,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: or excuse me, the Islanders are about a minus 150
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: favorite here. That line, though, that would tell you that
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: if Anaheim was not on a back-to-back, the Islanders would
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: still be, what, like minus 130 in this game? I mean,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the price seems kind of high. The Islanders seem like
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: they're getting more respect than I would think because I
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: still think Anaheim's the better of these two teams here.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: But again, the price is a little bit higher because
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's at a rest disadvantage. But still, I don't know.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Something weird about that price. It almost seems like the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are kind of hinting about something here by having
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the Islanders be that heavy of a favorite. They're almost
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: telling you, well, maybe the Islanders aren't necessarily the worst
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: of these two teams. I still think they are, though.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: And even though Anaheim's on the back-to-back, I think it's
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: about as good as a back-to-back can be because they're
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: staying in the same city. And coming off a really
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: ugly loss and switching back to their better goalie here.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to lean Anaheim in that one at
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the bigger underdog price than what you would normally get
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: out of them. This one you're not going to like
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: my opinion. The Kings at Washington. Kings are the only
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: team left with no wins, although they've played fewer games
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: than I think every other team in the league. Kings
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: have also faced a difficult schedule. I mean, look at
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: their schedule so far. Colorado, San Jose, both of those
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: on the road. Florida at home, Vegas on the road, Edmonton,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: and then Boston, who's 7-2 right now. Yeah, the Kings
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: have not had an easy schedule. Have a couple days
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: off now, go out on the road. That might help them, man.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: This Kings team is not as bad as their record
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: would make them look. Difficult schedule so far. I realize
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: they don't have a win yet, but starting a road
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: trip might help them, even though they're going cross-country. When
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: you're losing at home and losing bad, one of the
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: best things for you is to just get out of there.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Don't listen to the media. Forget about all that. Just
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: start focusing on hockey. Just play a game. You know
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: what I mean? And they're not going to overlook Washington.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Washington's a solid team. So I like the setup for
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: the Kings here. I think it's a focused spot for them.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I think for... washington maybe not quite as much i
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: mean they're coming off of two nice wins over the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: canadians and the devils those are both decent teams in
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: their same conference uh they have buffalo on deck buffalo
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: a playoff team last year as well so washington may
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: overlook a winless out of conference opponent here you know
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: and washington having the same amount of days off yes
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: they are staying at home but they might be just
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: sitting at home kind of basking in these wins they've
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: had over the last couple days. And like I said,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: they didn't necessarily outplay New Jersey by much statistically in
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: that game, if at all. Even though I like Washington
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: as a team, I think they're better than people think.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't love the city or their sports,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I think they're better than people think. However,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: in this spot, I would lean towards L.A. in this one.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: You're going to get them at a decent underdog price here.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Washington is a public side for sure. Washington opened minus 170,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: and the money came in and hit L.A. because it
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: dropped the number all the way down to minus 155.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: So I think there's been some real money coming in
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: on LA, and you can kind of tell because the
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: line reverse moved. The line moved against where the public is.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: 78% of the tickets on Washington, 82% of the cash
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: on them, but I'm not sure that that's totally accurate.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: I think based on the way the line moved, that
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: tells you that some real money came in on LA
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: against where the public is, and I agree with it.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: I would lean LA in that one. You'd be able
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: to get them probably a plus 130 money line. I
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: think that would be the move in that game, just
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Ball out on it. Just take LA on the money line, man.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: I know, yeah, they're a winless team. I get it.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: On the road against a good team. I just think
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: that's what the situation and the market read are telling
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: me there. It's the way it is. Toronto is at Columbus.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Toronto played yesterday. They got a decent win yesterday over
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: San Jose. That was good. Now they've got to swing
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: out to Columbus on a back-to-back, kind of a weird spot.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: It's not the start of a road trip either. It's
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: only a single game on the road, and sometimes that's
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: a really tricky spot because it entirely depends on how
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: much attention you're going to pay to this one opponent. Toronto,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I believe, will have Stolarz back in net for this one.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I believe they've been using Bobrovsky as kind of their
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: primary goalie, if I'm not mistaken. Feels weird for him
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: to be on Toronto, but yeah, he's played three games
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: in a row, including yesterday, so back-to-back. It'll be Stolarz
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and Nett this time. They're 2-1 with him and Nett,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: which isn't too bad. He's not a bad goalie, really,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: but Bobrovsky is their better goalie, so Toronto will be
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: downgrading to their lesser goalie here in this game. Kind
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: of a weird spot, having that single game on the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: road at Columbus with no time off. Columbus is coming
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: off a big game, too, though. They had yesterday off,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: but they were coming off of A pretty close game
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: against the Minnesota Wild. One of the better teams in
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: the league, and that was only two days ago. So
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Columbus is playing a third game in four days and
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: traveling between every game. That's not necessarily a great scheduling
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: setup here. They do have Vegas on deck. It's possible
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: maybe that's a look ahead, although they're out of conference.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Vegas has been very good to start the season. This
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: is a tough, tough game to figure out, man. I
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: think maybe this game... Maybe an over makes more sense
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: than anything else in this game. Again, with both teams
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: being not in good spots, which is kind of what
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I look for as far as my leans on the
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: totals here. This money is indicating towards the under here, though.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: It's a 6.5 total. The money is also indicating towards Toronto.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: 61% of the tickets on Columbus, 55% of the money
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: on Toronto. Columbus about a minus 160% Favorite here at
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: some of these books. Kind of a big price, but again,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: it's because it's factoring in the rest disadvantaged Toronto's in here.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: So sometimes fading the market sometimes works out there because
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: the market sometimes will overreact. to that rest disadvantage. But
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: in this case, it seems like it's a pretty tricky
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: spot for Toronto. So I would not want to deal
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: with that. I think I'd lean over in that game.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think you're going to get supreme
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: goaltending from either team there. So I don't know. To me,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: it seems more like an over than anything else. The
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: money is saying Toronto, do what you want with that.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: But I don't have a great opinion on that game.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg at St. Louis in a divisional clash here. Winnipeg's
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: coming up a huge game against Carolina, even though that's
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: an out-of-conference game. Carolina, their returning champs, huge game. Winnipeg
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: was coming off a loss to Chicago, which I think
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: was a win for us on the show. You know,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: overtime after Chicago blew a multiple-goal lead in that game twice.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg played really well against Carolina. They fell just short 3-2.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: I do not think this is a good spot for Winnipeg.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: This is a sandwich spot, even though it's a divisional matchup.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: St.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Louis is a team that you could still overlook. coming
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: off a big performance a couple days ago against the
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: returning champ Carolina Hurricanes. And on deck, you want to
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: talk about a divisional matchup. Winnipeg's got Dallas next. That
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: is a huge game. So this setup does not look
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: good to me at all for Winnipeg. It's a sandwich spot.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: So I was thinking, okay, we're going to play St.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Louis here. But no, because St. Louis is returning from
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: a road trip. So I don't really want them either here.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: As I talk about, when a team has a prolonged
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: road trip and they've been away for a week St.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Louis went all the way up to Ottawa, then Minnesota,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: then Nashville. Now they're coming back from that. A couple
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: days off, but still. Road trip return, basically it's always
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: a negative. It's just can you overcome that negative, you
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Will you be focused enough on
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: a team in your division that is ahead of you, Winnipeg,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: to overcome this travel spot here? I don't know, man.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: When you're away for that long, stuff piles up at
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: home that you have to do. You get back home.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: It becomes a distraction. You got to get stuff done
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: at home. You got to try to focus on the
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: game as well. They do a Vegas on deck as well,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: then Carolina. So, you know, the teams that were in
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: the finals last year are St. Louis' two next opponents.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: It's a bad spot, dude, for both teams. So I
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: can't come in on the side in this one. The
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: money is indicated towards Winnipeg slightly, 54% of tickets, 59%
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I would not do that
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: with the scheduling spot there and the sandwich spot because, again,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: I think coming off a huge game with another huge
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: game next, that's a sandwich spot. For the uninitiated, I
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: think you have that down spot in the schedule. It
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: can mean a lapse of focus. So those are the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: types of spots I look for. But both these teams
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: are in a negative spot that I tend to try
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: to look for.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: St.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Louis is about minus 140-something on the money line here.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: The money coming in on Winnipeg, 54% of tickets, 59%
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. This game, I think, in
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: over definitely jumps out at me, and the money agrees
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: with that. 55% of the tickets on the under, 79%
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. Like I said, when
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: you see two teams that are in bad spots like this,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: the focus might lapse. Yeah, the over makes a lot
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: of sense in this one. The total is still around 5.5
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: on this one, which is pretty low for a hockey total,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: though usually it's low overall. Usually the low totals indicate
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: that the oddsmakers think the game's going to be lower scoring. Yeah,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I don't see it here, man. I don't think Hellebook
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: is back for Winnipeg or anything like that. Their goaltending
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: tandem is not good. I know St. Louis has Bennington,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: but is he really that good at this point? I
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: don't know, man. Both teams possibly in a lack of
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: focus spot here. Over makes a lot of sense here.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: As far as the totals, I think this is the
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: best one out of the hockey slate here. Over in Winnipeg-St. Louis,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: over the 5.5 makes a lot of sense in my opinion.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: The Boston Bruins, my Bruins, are at the Dallas Stars here.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: The Bruins off to a ridiculous start of 7-2. Not
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: what I expected. They've won every game on the road
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: trip so far. They're not going to be unfocused, I
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: would think, against Dallas, because Dallas is a good team,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: and there's still kind of that Tyler Sagan thing going around.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Former Bruin, who's been on Dallas for forever now. I
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: still think that's kind of a thing. Bruins have had
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: a couple of days off here, but a couple days
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: off might not be that helpful when you want to
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: continue your momentum, and they've been winning all these games.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: The Bruins have not had that difficult of a schedule
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: so far, though, so that's skewing their record a little
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: bit here. Dallas is.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Probably going to be the best team to face so far.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Dallas is very good. And you'll notice when we look
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: at the market here, Dallas is a big favorite. They're
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: a big favorite for a reason, man. Even though they're
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: 4-3-1 and Bruins are 7-2, Dallas is the better team.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: The Osmakers are telling you that. Dallas has already played
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Colorado twice, so that bumped up their strength of schedule
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. Dallas is returning home from the road, though.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: They were on the road Wednesday, Saturday. at Colorado, and
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: then at Chicago, they did not suffer a letdown at Chicago,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: and they smoked Chicago with Ottinger back in net, Dallas'
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: number one goalie. I'm assuming he'll be in net again
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: here today. Probably both teams with their starting goalies in
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: this one, I would assume Swayman and Ottinger here. Both
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: teams with a couple of days off here. I don't
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: like the return home spot for Dallas. You know, they've
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: been away for almost a week. It could be a
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: little bit of a distraction coming back home. They do
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: have a divisional game next against Winnipeg, but Boston's off
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: to such a good start that I don't know if
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: you really overlook them at this point. And Dallas, again,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: they're minus 170 on the money line. So the oddsmakers
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: are telling you something. I think the public, if they
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: look at this game, and this is going to be
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: one of the games that gets more public attention, at
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: least on the hockey slate today, because these are two
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: bigger-name hockey teams here. They're going to look at this
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: and want to take the Bruins. How am I getting
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the Bruins, who are 7-2, at this huge underdog price
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: against Dallas, who's 4-3-1? The oddsmakers are telling you what
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: you need to know. They're telling you Dallas is the
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: better team. And yeah, I don't have any question that
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: that is true. So I have to lean Dallas here
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: in some capacity. Bruins are getting the public action, 69%
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, 76% of the cash on Dallas.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: The price really just kind of tells you everything here,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: but you'd have to knock that price down, in my opinion.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I think the way to play this is either take
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Dallas to win in regulation, which with Dallas, that's a
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: little bit riskier, I think, because they play more lower
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: scoring games. So you might wind up with an overtime
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: game with Dallas. The other option is to make it
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: a minus-one puck line scenario where you take part of
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: the money, put it on the minus-one-and-a-half puck line, and
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: put the other part of it on the money line
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: on Dallas. Because you get the one-and-a-half plus money, so
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: you'd split it such that it works out so that
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: you push your bet, basically, if it lands on exactly
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: one for Dallas, if that makes sense. Or some books
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: will just offer... the puck line at that like minus
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: one but you might you'll probably get a better price
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: if you have a bunch of books available and you
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: can make one bet at one book and the other
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: bet at another book if they're both offering better prices
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: in those different markets if that makes a lot of
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: sense maybe i should do some more uh betting 101
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: videos here if people have no idea what i'm talking
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: about but yeah i think dallas is the right side
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: either take them to win in regulation or Minus one
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: puck line that thing to get the price down. I mean,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: you could play the money line if you wanted to,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: but it is a little bit juicy. Minnesota at Edmonton
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: is the next game. This is a big game. This
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: is one of the best games, maybe the best game
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: on the board. This game and then the other ESPN game.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: are the best games here. The first ESPN game is Boston-Dallas,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: by the way. I forgot to mention that. That's at
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: 8 p.m. Eastern. So that's going to make it get
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: more betting action, by the way, because the public likes
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: to bet games that they're watching. So the ESPN games
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: are going to get more betting volume. So Boston-Dallas will
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: have more betting on it for that reason, too. All
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the more reason to lean towards Dallas, to be honest.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: You want to fade the public in these TV games
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: more often than not. Really just in general more often
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: than not, but it's more significant in the games that
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: have higher betting volume. Edmonton is coming up with a
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: nice bounce-back win, zigzag win over Utah after they lost
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: to Utah the first game. They smoked them in Utah
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: in their last game. Big win for Edmonton. They do
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: have Carolina on deck too, which is another big game, obviously,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: against the returning champs, but I don't really think Edmonton's
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: going to overlook Minnesota either, because Minnesota is also good. So,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: you know, the Oilers are just playing some big games
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: in quick succession here, so I think it's going to
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: be more of a matter of how tired do they
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: get by the end of this whole thing Minnesota's coming
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: off a win over Columbus it was not very impressive
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: so I think Minnesota does set up better in this
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: game they're starting a road trip which is usually a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: focus spot you want to get the road trip off
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: on the right foot they're not going to overlook Edmonton
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: anyway Minnesota I mean they have a good record and
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: they face a fairly difficult schedule so far so um
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: reasonably difficult I would say although so I mean Edmonton
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: I think is actually facing easier schedule Edmonton you know
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: started off with a couple games against Vancouver and whatever
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Edmonton's getting the money here although they are the public
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: side too 68% of tickets 91% of the cash on
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: them around minus 130 on them here although it looks
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: like the price might be dropping a little bit on
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: them I would lean against the public in this one
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: though I would lean more towards Minnesota here that's a
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: game that might get more public attention as well because
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: it is two of the better teams in the league.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: But I would lean towards Minnesota. I mean, they're a
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: little bit of an underdog. I think the scheduling setup
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: is a little bit better for them. And I think
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: they're the better defense. I know you guys are coming
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: at me in the comments, well, Edmonton's defense has improved.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Maybe it is. You know, I'm not sure how much
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: it could really... Maybe there's a lot of variance, though,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: in defense, but with Edmonton, there really hasn't been. The
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: last few years, it's just been the same thing over
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: and over again. This team scores a ton, and they
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: don't really play great defense, don't have great goaltending. Maybe
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong, and maybe they're better in that department this
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: year than they have been the last few years. I
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: think that remains to be seen. The next game up
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: is my play because you know I'm going to one
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: of these ugly games here. That's where I'm going to
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: find value. Detroit at Seattle. Yeah, this is where I'm
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: going with this one, man. And I think I'm trying
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: to redeem myself because I think I did I lose
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: with Detroit against Seattle before? No, I think it was
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia with Seattle, right? Oh, well, whatever. This is the
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: best bet. You want to know what I'm betting? Yeah,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: we're going to take the Red Wings in this one
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: on the money line. Nobody's going to want this, but
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Seattle's an overrated team, man. They're 5-3-1 right now. I've
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: been telling you they're not that good, and they've lost
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: two games in a row now, so that hot start
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: seems to be fizzling out. But you might think, well,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: they're going to bounce back. They just got smoked by
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: a pretty good Florida team. Yeah, I know. They just
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: lost to Tampa Bay in overtime. Pretty good result for
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Seattle against a good Tampa team on the road. Then
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: they swung around and just didn't really have much left
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: and lost to Florida badly, 8-3. And normally I want
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: to take a team to bounce back after they lose
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: badly like that. In a spot like this, there is
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: no way that I want to do that. With, again, Seattle,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: I think, being overrated in the market. They have five
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: wins so far. And look at their wins, dude. Two
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: of them are against Calgary. One is against this Detroit
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: team on the road, which I'll talk about further in
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: a minute. One is against Philadelphia and barely won that game. Yes,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: we took a loser on the show with that one
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: in overtime. I'm not happy about it. The only good
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: win Seattle has is a road win against Washington. Other
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: than that, they've been completely unimpressive, but you know why
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: I'm fading them here. They've been on the road since Friday,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: October 9th. This is an extremely long road trip to
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: have to return back from, and it's I believe this
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: is one of the longest possible travel legs you can
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: have going from Florida, which is in southeast Florida. Florida
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: basically plays in the middle of the Everglades, pretty much.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: They're outside of Miami. Seattle has to go from there
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: all the way back up to the Pacific Northwest for this.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: The only longer travel leg in this league is Florida
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to Vancouver. I'm pretty sure maybe Edmonton just... because it's
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: further north. But whatever. This is a crazy travel leg here.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: And you know, in general, I do not like teams
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: having to go from the East Coast all the way
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: back to the West Coast like this. You have to
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: readjust to the time zone to play a late night game.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: It can mess with your biological clock. So I think
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: that's bad for Seattle. Plus, again, it's a return home
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: spot on top of all of that, which I think
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: that's a really bad situation as well. When you return
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: home from the road, I don't think it's an immediate
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot. I think you fall into these distractions.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: You have to get back to home life. There's a
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: bunch of stuff you have to get done. At home,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: you might not be able to focus totally on the game.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: And how much focus is Seattle really going to have
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: on Detroit, who is an Eastern Conference team now? A
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: team that they already beat, by the way, to start
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: that road trip. That's how they started it. They actually
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: won the road trip, believe it or not. They won
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: three out of the five games. They started it by
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: smoking Detroit in Detroit 6-3. Do you really think they're
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: going to be that focused on Detroit after beating them
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: to start that road trip on the road? I don't
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: think so. And for Detroit... You know, Detroit's going to
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: be focused because they know they just lost at home
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: to the Seattle team. So Detroit's going to be in
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: one of those quick road reversal revenge angles that I
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: look for. Not necessarily revenge. It's not like Detroit's going
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: to be, oh, we're angry at Seattle now. We need
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: to win. No, it's more like Seattle is going to
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: have more of a tendency to overlook a team that
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: they already beat easily over in their place. They're going
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: to think, well, it's probably going to be easy if
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: we beat them over there. We should be able to
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: beat them here. So that team tends to get a
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: little bit complacent. And they have nothing to change off
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: of that win because everything worked. Whereas for Detroit, they
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: can change a bunch of things because they lost the game.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: But it gets a little bit better than that because
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: if you dig into this, this was not a legitimate
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: win for Seattle. Detroit outshot Seattle 40-24 in this game.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Detroit also won the hit battle, and they did lose
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: the face-off battle by a little bit. But statistically, this
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: game was not what it looked like on the scoreboard whatsoever.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: This was not a dominant win by Seattle by any means.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: They got a bunch of goals in a quick... period
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: of time here like a short period of time they
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: had a barrage of goals like i don't know what
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: you call that in hockey i forget but they had
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: three goals in like a three minute period in the
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: second period and that was what's completely swung the game
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: detroit was winning at that point and then all of
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: a sudden they were down two goals and yes i
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: agree that detroit did fire off a bunch of shots
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: later in the game because they were losing by three
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: goals for quite a while here. So yes, that did
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: increase the amount of shots for Detroit. Cause they got
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit desperate, but even so this was not
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: what it looked like on the scoreboard. So that helps
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the cause of Detroit here as well. It gets even
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: worse for Seattle, by the way, because, um, They play
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: a Western Conference team next that's off to a really
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: good start, which is the Utah Mammoth. So I think
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: they might be looking ahead to that Utah game. So
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: that basically turns this into like a sandwich spot. The
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: return home spot, I think it's going to be really
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: easy to overlook this Detroit team they already beat. Utah
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: is a big game on deck. That's going to be
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: a Hulu Disney Plus game as well. So I think
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Seattle may be looking ahead to that. I think Utah's like,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: what are they right now, 6-2 or something like that? Yeah,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Utah's off to a good start. I think Seattle might
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: look ahead to that. Detroit not looking good right now
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: at 3-3-2. Detroit is having to travel to the Pacific
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Coast as well. I get it. That's not great, but
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: they're going from the central time zone, I believe. Is
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Detroit in the central? I think they are, right?
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: I always get that wrong. I always forget if they're
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: eastern or central. But either way, Seattle's having to travel
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: from southern Florida, so their travel spot is still going
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: to be worse. At the very worst for Detroit, both
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: teams have to adjust to the later time here, which again, yes,
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: it's bad for your biological clock. Both teams are going
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: to fall into that here, where they both have to
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: readjust and acclimate to this time zone. But both teams
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: have to do it here, and the spot is way
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: better for Detroit because they're starting a road trip. They
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: had a little bit of momentum at the end of
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: their homestand here. They snuck by San Jose. Now they're
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip. And usually you are focused to
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: start the road trip. You want to get the road
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: trip off on the right foot. So starting a road trip,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: usually a very focused spot. Returning home from a road trip,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: usually a very unfocused spot. So we have both of
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: those things in favor of Detroit here. And Detroit only
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: has Vancouver next and then Calgary. They're not going to
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead to those two games. They'll be trying
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: to win this game against a Seattle team with a
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: winning record who beat them in Detroit. And the public
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: is going to want nothing to do with Detroit if
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: they look at this game. Oh, Seattle has the better record.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Seattle's back at home, and Seattle already won in Detroit.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: This is easy, right? You play Seattle at basically a
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: pick-em price.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: Nope.
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: Nope.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Nope, not going to happen. We're going to take Detroit
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: in this one. It looks too easy to play Seattle.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Like I was saying, they're not that good of a team.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: It's around a pick and price, and it's that way
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: for a reason. The oddsmakers, I mean, yeah, they're probably
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: accounting for the return home spot a little bit here,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: but they're still kind of telling you that Detroit, believe
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: it or not, is actually the better of these two teams.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: And I think that might be true. I really don't
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: think Seattle is that good. I think they're like a
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: bottom several team in the league, unless we really start
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: seeing otherwise. I have not seen otherwise yet. Like I said,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: they only have one actual really good win so far.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: 71% of the tickets are on Seattle, 58% of the
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: cash on Detroit. Money agrees with me on this. We'll
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: take Detroit on the money line. That is my one
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: hockey play of the day. I think it's the best
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: play of the day. Nice. Yeah, I don't know exactly
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: what that's referring to. Detroit is the play. Carolina at
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Vancouver is the next game. Yeah, I mean, Carolina, they're
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: a minus 300 road favorite here. This is basically like
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: the best team in the league against the worst team
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: in the league. Minus 300 road favorite in hockey. Absolutely insane.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: There's no way you can lay a price like that.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I know that Carolina's coming off a loss. They lost
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: to Calgary. That's not a good loss, obviously. But Calgary's goaltender,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, he was standing on his head in that game, man.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: He had a really good interview at the end of
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: that game, too. Cooley, I think is his name. That
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: guy's hilarious, dude. I hope I got his name right.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know. But the goalie for Calgary, you can
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: find his interview. It was pretty strong. Now, normally I
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: would say, yeah, maybe this is a bounce-back spot for
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Carolina after a bad loss like that, but I don't
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: really think so here because they had seven wins in
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: a row prior to that loss. And you know I
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: talk about that. When you lose a win streak like that,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: even if you lose it to a team that's not
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: that good... that can hang you over into the next
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: game because it's like your momentum just completely stalls out
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: and you're not used to that. So that could hang
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: them over here. Carolina might look right past Vancouver and
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: think this is going to be easy because they already
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: smoked Vancouver in Carolina earlier this year, earlier this month,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: I should say, 7-2. Carolina might be thinking this is
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: going to be really easy. By the way, it was
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: bussy in net for that game against Calgary, so.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: All three of Carolina's losses have come with him in net.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: So Kochetkov is their better goalie, but it probably will
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: be him for them here. So I'm going to keep
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: in mind it will probably be their better goalie here.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: But Carolina might be looking ahead, dude. They got Edmonton
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: on deck. That's a much, much bigger game than this
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: game against Vancouver. So this spot still doesn't look very
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: good to me for Carolina. They're also playing three games
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: in four days, all in different cities, which I don't
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: think is that great of a spot either. A lot
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: of travel going on here. And for Vancouver, you know,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not playing well, okay? We know that.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: They're one of the worst teams in the league, if
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: not the worst. It's them and Calgary, basically. The problem
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: with Vancouver, if you really want Vancouver here, is they're
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: returning home from an even longer road trip than Seattle. As,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: you know, I just discussed Seattle's road trip. Well, look
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: at this road trip. Vancouver's been on the road since
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: October 8th, which started with them losing at Carolina hilariously.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Now they're returning home from all that, and they were
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: just in Florida as well. They're returning home from Tampa
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: Bay all the way to Vancouver, which is one of
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: the longest travel legs you can get. They lost every
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: game on the road trip, but still, I don't think
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: this necessarily becomes a bounce-back spot just because they're back home.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: To the contrary, I think this is a negative because
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: they're returning home from a long, long road trip. They
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: could fall into a distraction spot here, even though you're
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: not really going to overlook Carolina, though. That's the thing
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: that I would still be leaning towards Vancouver in this game,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, even though this is a horrible
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: return home spot. Carolina's just way too heavily priced, dude,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: and Vancouver already got killed by them once, so Carolina
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: might not pay any attention. You already heard what I said.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Carolina's also in a bad spot here, so you have
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: to weigh which one of these is worse. You have
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: to weigh the price on the game. But yeah, Vancouver...
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: They're not necessarily going to immediately bounce back after losing
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: every game on the road just because they're back at
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: home now. That's just not a thing. I think the
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: better way to play this game is to play it over. Again,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: both teams are in bad spots. 70% of the tickets,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: 75% of the cash on the over. The total is 6.5,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: so it is a high total here. I know Carolina
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: will have their better goalie back in net, but this
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: still could be a very unfocused spot for both teams,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: plus possible fatigue coming in here, especially for Vancouver with
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: all the travel. I think that's going to lend itself
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: to worse defense here. So if you're going to play
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: this game, the over would be my recommendation in this one.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I still do lean Vancouver, though, as well. You'd get
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Vancouver on a plus money. You'll get them on a
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: plus two up line probably at a decent price, which
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: is not typical of in a hockey game, but with
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Carolina being minus 300, you're probably going to get a
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: big puck line on Vancouver here. 88% of the tickets,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: 90% of the cash on Carolina, so they're a very
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: public side. We'd leave Vancouver on the side, but I
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: think the way better look in that game is an over.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: I know it's me with my hockey overs, but I
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: haven't given out any as a play, but maybe I should.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: I'm going to keep my eye on those. What was
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: the other one I said? Winnipeg, St. Louis? Yeah, Winnipeg, St. Louis,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: and Carolina, Vancouver. I think those are really, really good overlooks.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: don't overlook those. Although I'm not making them plays for me.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: I think I said Toronto Columbus was also an over lean,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: but that one is less good than the other two
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: in my opinion. Then we have the final game, which
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: is the final of the double header of the ESPN games.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at Vegas. Good game. One of the best
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: games on the board for sure. Both teams are good.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Both teams are off to a good start. Tampa Bay
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: disappointed me in the playoffs last year just because I
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: picked them to win the whole thing. I thought it
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: was the contrarian play that had the most leverage in
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: the bracket, and it was kind of between them and Carolina,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: and Carolina was just more like neutral leverage, and I
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: wanted more positive leverage, but the drop in the actual
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: odds to win the whole thing, it didn't work out,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: but whatever. I still think Tampa Bay definitely should not
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: have lost to Montreal, though, and that if they won
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: that series, they probably would have at least been in
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference Finals. Vegas is coming off three wins
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: in a row. They're staying at home. They just easily
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: beat Pittsburgh the other day. Obviously, they'll show up for
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: an ESPN game against Tampa Bay. This is a big game.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Vegas only plays St. Louis next. Not really that big
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: of a deal. Tampa Bay should be focused as well,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: but they are having to travel here. So Tampa Bay,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: they're off two wins in a row as well, but
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: those are at home against Seattle and Vancouver. Not very impressive.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Now they're starting a road trip. They play Colorado next,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: so they're not going to overlook Vegas here. Usually you're
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: focused to start the road trip. I think the one
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: issue for Tampa is the Pacific Coast time slot. You
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? They're going from the East Coast
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: all the way to the Pacific Coast time now, having
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: to adjust three hours different on their bio clocks. I
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: think that's a negative spot, you know? So I think
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for Tampa Bay. Just because
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: of the biological clock spot. I think both teams should
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: still be focused for this game. But the biggest negative
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: that I see is that Tampa is going to have
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: to be playing really late on their biological clock. So
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: that would have me slightly leaning towards Vegas here. But
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Vegas is a public side. They have the slightly better
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: record and the public is on them. And you know
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: the public is speaking louder on these ESPN games because
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: they want action on the games that they're watching. 71%
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: of tickets, 72% of the cash on Vegas. So Vegas
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: is a public side. That would have me hesitating to
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: really want to play them here. Vegas is only a
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: minus 115 favorite, so believe it or not, the odds
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: makers are telling you that the Lightning are actually the
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: better of these two teams, slightly, because Vegas is not
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: even getting full home ice built into the line here.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Do what you want with that info. I'd still be
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: leaning Vegas slightly just because of the bioclock issue, though.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: All right, NBA is going to be next. I will
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: take a quick break and then be right back, and
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: you'll see my new intermission video here. Dirty Sock, yes,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: with Cooley or whatever his name is, yes. I'll be
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: right back. I got a new hydration break video. It's
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: more boring, though, but I will be right back. I
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: got to get my ads going on YouTube. We need
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: to get to 1,000 subscribers, and then we'll put ads
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: during this break, too. How about that? I'll be right back,
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: and then we get to talk about what everybody really
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: wants to hear, the NBA tip-off. And then there is
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: college football as well, which does not interest me today,
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: but we'll talk about those games too. I'll be right back.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: So so.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: All right. Let me see here.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: All right. NBA. Let's do this. And this is going
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: to lead into what I'm talking. If you guys are
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: unaware of what I'm talking about in the title of
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: this show here today, I'll get to it when I
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: get to it. But the first game is in the afternoon,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, at 3.10 p.m. Eastern or 3
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: o'clock p.m. Eastern, I guess. All of these games are
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: on NBC. It's a triple header. My Boston Celtics at Detroit.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: This is an interesting one. This one I think is
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: the most difficult to figure out actually on the side here.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Now if you saw my NBA season preview, you know
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: that I think the Celtics are a little bit of
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: an undervalued commodity this season, coming into this season. We
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: know Detroit was the number one seed. in the East
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: last year. Celtics were the number two, and they both
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: wound up getting knocked out earlier than maybe people expected. Well,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: I was correct in my bracket. I had Cleveland knocking
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: out Detroit because that's what the odds suggested, that Cleveland
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: was actually the better team there. Obviously, I had Boston
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: going a lot further than that. Celtics never should have
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: blown that series against the 76ers. But now we have
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: this new Celtics lineup. Paul George instead of Jalen Brown
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: is basically the big change here. They do have Mitchell
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: Robinson as well. As I mentioned in my NBA preview, though,
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: what those guys bring to the table does get a
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: little bit overlooked. Paul George is a really good defender.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: That's where he actually is a little bit better than Brown.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Brown is a much better offensive player, but Paul George
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: is going to bring more defense, and Mitchell Robinson is
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: like an offensive rebound vacuum. I don't think he's going
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: to start. I think Robinson is going to be one
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: of the first guys off the bench for the Celtics.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: I think Keita is actually still going to start for them.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: I might consider starting both of them and just go big.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but the thing is, Detroit is like
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: the paint presence team of these two teams. Detroit, that's
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: what they do. They play on the interior. They play
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: good deep vents. The Celtics play good deep vents too,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: but the Celtics... Jack up threes, even though the Celtics
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: don't play at a fast pace. They play half-court offense,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: so they try to get as many possessions as possible.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: They try to take a lot of threes, and if
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: they have a three look, they'll take it early in
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: the possession anyway. You know what I mean? That's the
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: way that the Celtics play. Their goal this year is
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: to try to get even more possessions with George being
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: kind of a steel man and with steel man. We're
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: steel manning this argument rather than straw manning it. Mitchell
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Robinson getting all the offensive rebounds and kicking it back
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: out possibly for extra looks. I don't know what's going
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: to happen in this game, man. Detroit does have more
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: continuity because they basically have the same team as last year.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: The Celtics are incorporating these new pieces, mainly George because
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: he is going to be a starter. So that gives
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Detroit a little bit of an edge. But the odds
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: are telling you the Celtics are the better team. They're
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: actually favored. And this actually opened Detroit minus two, but
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: it looks like some real money came in on Boston
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: and flipped Boston to a minus one and a half
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: point favorite here. Celtics are very public, though. 86% of tickets,
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: 91% of the cash on the Celtics. Ah, man, this
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: is a tough call. Really, really tough call on this one.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: I might slightly lean Detroit in this one. I don't
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: really love it. I think maybe the continuity will kind
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: of be the thing that gets them through here. And
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: start of the season, you know, maybe... The shooting, like
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: a team that relies on threes, it's high variance. Maybe
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: they'll be a little bit off from that perspective. Although
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: the Celtics, I will say, they're the only team that
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: went undefeated in the preseason. They beat the Sixers twice
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: in the preseason. I don't know if that really matters,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: but the Celtics were the only 4-0 team in the preseason.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: But yeah, preseason doesn't matter a whole lot, but the
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: starters were definitely getting a decent amount of playing time
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: in some of those games. I think I'll still need
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: Detroit here, and the money is coming in towards the
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: over in this game. This game has the lowest total
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: out of the three. It's about 10 points lower than
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: the other two, and I think it's because it's the
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: best of the defensive matchups. Well, you'd think OKC and
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: San Antonio is a good defensive matchup too, though. But
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know. This game is just expected to be,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: I think, at a slower pace. With Boston and Detroit,
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: that's just kind of the way they play. and they
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: play good defense. What I would say is even though
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in on the over in this one,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: I would not play an over in any of these
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: games today, even though I think the under might be
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: a better look in the other two games over this one,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: even though this is the lowest total, and usually the
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: lowest totals do go under. But I would only be
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: looking at unders in game one for the same reason
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: I talked about with the under in the WNBA game
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: in game one. And by the way, I know I
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: was not correct about the over in WNBA game two.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: I liked that one, and there were a lot of
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: professional players bettors that seem to agree with me on
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: that when I listen to them throughout the day that
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: one didn't happen but the reason I like the under
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: in the first WNBA finals game was because of all
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: the time off and I know these guys did play
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: in preseason and whatever but when you have a bunch
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: of time off and you haven't gotten a game under
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: your belt yet usually that affects the offense like the
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: offensive timing the rhythm might not be there but the
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: defenses are just ready to go out of the gate
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean and if these teams have
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: different lineups potential chemistry things going on that need to
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: get fixed you that kind of takes effect more on
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: the offense than the defense as well. Like defense is
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: just what it is. It's easier to play, easier to learn.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: Like offense, you kind of have to learn, like how
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: does this team run their offense? Defense is usually fairly
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: similar regardless. So I think the defense has the upper
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: hand in all these opening games here. So I would
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: only be playing unders on these totals here if I
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: was going to play any of them. But what I
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: will say is the money is actually agreeing with the
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: under in the other two games, but not this game.
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: This is the hardest game to figure out, though. For me,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: at least. The next game is Philadelphia-New York. And I
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: think the thing that jumps out at you here for
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: Philly and New York is that the Knicks are a 4.5
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: point favorite. They actually dropped from a 5.5 point favorite
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: down to 4.5. But to me, you think that even
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: though the Knicks won the championship, Philadelphia is all the
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: hype right now. Because Philadelphia has LeBron and they have
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: Jalen Brown. Now, they lost Paul George, of course, but
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: They have a stacked lineup. They're like the new super team.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Those guys going along with,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: although I don't think LeBron's going to be in the
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: starting lineup, although I could be wrong, but he's old
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: at this point. So I don't think he's going to
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: actually play that much. So I think LeBron is a
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: little bit. of an overvalued commodity here. Although in a
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: game like this, he may play more minutes than he
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: will in some other games here. Uh, cause you know,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: they're going to be resting him in some games cause
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: he's way old. He's LeBron, but I don't think he's
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: going to be in their starting lineup, but they still
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: are going to have Embiid, Maxie, um, Edgecombe. I'm pretty
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: sure it's still there. He was a rookie last year.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: He was really good. Uh, along with Brown and, uh,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Who did I miss? Who else do they have again?
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Simons, I think, is going to be
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: their first guy off the bench. He's a shooter, like
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: a pure shooter. Celtics had him for a little while.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: Defensive liability, though, for sure. And then, oh, yeah. Yeah, no,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I think I pretty much covered what we got going
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: on with the Sixers there. But, yeah, they're the hype
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: team is what I was saying.
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: So, yeah.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: The public is going to have a tendency to look
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: at this line, I think, even though the Knicks won
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: the championship. Because of Philadelphia's offseason moves, I think the
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: public is going to look at this and think that
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: it's a bargain getting that many points with the Sixers.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to want to be leaning towards
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: the underdog here. It looks like that is the case.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: 71% of the tickets on them and only 52% of
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: the cash. So the Sixers do look like a dreaded
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: public underdog here. And I probably do agree with the
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: Knicks if I have to lean to a side in
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: this one. I don't like it enough to make it
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: a play or anything like that. I think it would
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: be my lean in this game, though, would be towards
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: the Knicks in this one. And the under. I still
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: like the under in this one, too. But what I
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: was going to be saying, because I've got to get
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: into it, because it's the most hilarious aspect of this,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: which is part of the title here. This is not
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: a home game for... Philadelphia but this is actually a
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: home game for LeBron James because even though he's on
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia 76ers he moved to New York he lives
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: in New York so LeBron is going to be playing
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: this season with the 76ers while living in New York
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: and he's going to be taking a helicopter to every
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: home game And, you know, I made a joke on Twitter.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get, you can go see what
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: my joke, I made a joke about NBA players and helicopters, okay?
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get this channel nuked, but basically
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: I say, that's something that's really, it has a good
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: track record, a good historical track record. This is just
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: one of the most insane things that I've ever heard.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: It's like, I don't know, man, maybe LeBron should just
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: retire at this point if that's what he's doing. Like,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: to me it seems like he's not, fully taking this
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: thing seriously. Like, okay, you're going to live in New York,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: and you're not going to be with the team, so
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: I think that might kind of disrupt team chemistry a
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: little bit. Like, if he's supposed to be one of
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: the leaders on the team, and he's not even in
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: the same city with his teammates, it seems very bizarre
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, he'll be taking a helicopter to the
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: home games in Philly, and for this game, he's living
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: in New York, so I don't know. He's just going
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: to take a limo from his... high priced apartment in
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: New York city or whatever, or wherever he lives, he's
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: just going to take, take a limo ride, uh, just
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: up to the venue here, up to Madison square garden.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: I guess that's what he's going to be doing. Yeah.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Roll out the red carpet, I guess for LeBron. I
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: have no idea, man. Um, I just think the whole
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: situation is hilarious. It's re it's so ridiculous. I've never
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: heard of anything like this. Um, yeah. The LeBron copter.
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Um, I suppose because he's living in New York. That's right. Well,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: that's what they call Madison Square Garden, right? It's the
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: synagogue of basketball. I'm pretty sure that's what they call it.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: The sin part of it is doing a lot of
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: work there. Dude, we can't get this channel nuked. We cannot.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: This is not Tower Gang. I do not want to
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: get this thing nuked. Anyway, as far as the side
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: is concerned... Philadelphia is a public underdog, so I'm going
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: to want to look to fade that. I don't like that. Plus,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is a team with less continuity here. They've got
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: to work these huge pieces into their rotation. Jalen Brown,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: LeBron probably will play more minutes in this game than
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: he will in other games. Yes, thank you. So I
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: think that the Knicks are basically just ready to go
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: because their only change is they lost Mitchell Robinson. And,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: you know, I like his offensive rebounding capabilities for sure,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: but there is one big negative with Mitchell Robinson is
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: he is an unbelievably bad free throw shooter. Like, he
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: makes Shaq look like an elite free throw shooter. Mitchell
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: Robinson is terrible at the free throw line. Some coaches
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: have to work with him and fix that, dude. I
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: don't know what to tell you. I think you could
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: fix your free throw shooting. He should go with the
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: granny shot like that kid on Wofford a couple years ago.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else to tell you. But, yeah,
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: for New York, they're going to be about the same team.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: So I like the fact that the Knicks are being–
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: they're an overlooked favorite here. They're a favorite that the
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: public doesn't even want– Go figure. The public doesn't even
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: want the returning champs in their home opener. The public
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: doesn't even want them. How insane is that? So I
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: think I have to lean to the Knicks here. But
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: I still don't like playing on teams in their home
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: opener when they're the champion, right? Because it's going to
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: be the banner-raising ceremony. So I don't like that. Plus,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: this is actually technically revenge for Philadelphia, I'm pretty sure, right?
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: Because the Knicks eliminated Philadelphia from the playoffs last year,
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. Like I mentioned in my preview, the Knicks...
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: Kind of got an easier path there. They got to
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: just avoid the Celtics and got an easier matchup with
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: the 76ers there. And the Sixers had nothing left after
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: beating the Celtics, if I remember correctly. But usually you're
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: focused for the team that eliminated you. So that's one
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: thing that points in the direction of Philadelphia here. So yeah,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a game that's hard to figure
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: out on the side for sure. The money's definitely coming
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: in towards the under in this one. The total's pretty
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: high here. the 230s but i like the under in
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: this one as well because this is going to be
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: the most hyped matchup dude i mean it's the new
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: philadelphia 76ers super team against the returning champ knicks so
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: you know the public's going to be all over this
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: and you know what they're going to do oh this
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: is brown and lebron james up against the knicks you
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: know with brunson etc like the team that won the
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: whole thing last year you know the public's going to
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: play the over here they're going to expect points here And,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: you know, Philly's defense may be in question. They're going
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: to be a really good scoring team. I think their
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: defense might be questionable for sure. But in an opening
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: game like this, like I said, where one team is, like,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: completely changing their lineup, really, like Philadelphia, that offense might
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: not be totally in rhythm right away. You know what
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: I mean? And I think the over is going to
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: be overvalued here. So I would be leaning under in
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: this game. But also what I will say is that– wait,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: where was I going with this again? Oh, yeah, but– Well,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: I would say the first half unders make a lot
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: of sense in these games too. I talked about the
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: unders in general, but for that same reason, the first
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: half unders make a lot of sense in these opening
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: games too because when teams might have to get their
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: offensive timing back and their rhythm and stuff, the most
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: impact of that situation happens early in the game. The
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: point in the game where the teams are going to
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: have the least rhythm is when they first start out.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: So first quarter, first half, unders, Make a lot of
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: sense in all these opening games too. So I'm just
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: throwing that out there. It's not really my style of handicapping,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: but that is something to be aware of there. Hindian,
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: what's up? Yes, thank you. I've been changing all the.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: All the visuals here. You think it looks better? Does
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: it look professional? I'm almost a professional now, man. Shout
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: out to Top Lobster. He designed the new logo, of course.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: The design guy extraordinaire, Top Lobster. He can do everything, man.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: He's the art guy. He gave me a few different options.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: I loved the neon one. I was like, we got
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: to go with that, man. So shout out to Top
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Lobster for that. Love that shit. All right. Next game,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: the final game, is Oklahoma City and San Antonio. And
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: I will... jump into this game with my first NBA play.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: And NBA is my best sport historically. It's, it's the
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: sport that I've had the best track record at throughout the,
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: you know, two decades that I've been doing this. NBA
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: has been the best for me. Not, you know, but
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: I don't want to jinx anything, but yes, we do
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: have a play on OKC and San Antonio.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: Um, If you want to know, yeah, we're going to
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: take the Oklahoma City Thunder, although it's down to one
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: and a half here. This opened at two and a half.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping that that two isn't going to come into
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: play here, although two is a somewhat key number in basketball.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: But with basketball, it's all kind of one point increments.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: Like the most key number is actually kind of seven
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: because that's basically when teams stop intentionally fouling. Although I've
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: kind of made the argument that it's eight because if
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: you foul down six, you might be giving up two
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: free throws there. But teams essentially stop intentionally fouling once
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: they fall down by at least seven because it's a
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: three possession game at that point so hopefully it's not
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: going to be a difference between two and a half
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: and one and a half really like you're kind of
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: just saying Oklahoma City is going to win the game
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: but we're going to take Oklahoma City here against San
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: Antonio and I think really what we're going to have
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: here is This is a revenge spot for Oklahoma City,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: and I think that's the main component of this. Oklahoma
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: City got knocked out in the conference finals at home
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: in Game 7 by San Antonio last year, and I
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: expected Oklahoma City to win that. I think I might
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: have lost one or two plays during that series trying
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: to play Oklahoma City. I'm going to come right back
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: and do it again here, though, man, because I think
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is still actually the better of these two
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: teams slightly, and if you saw my NBA preview, I
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: thought they were the value pick to win the Western
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Conference again and to actually win one of the value
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: picks to win the whole thing again here. I know
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: San Antonio's great. They're an up-and-coming team. They're very, very good.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: They're still young, though, and Oklahoma City is massively deep,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: and I know people are going to point out, well,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City did really bad against San Antonio during the
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: regular season last year, and that's true. San Antonio had
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: their number during the regular season. If you include the
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: NBA Cup final, which wasn't really an official regular season game,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: San Antonio went 4-1, I think, against Oklahoma City during
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: the regular season. But Oklahoma City proved they can beat
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: the San Antonio team in the playoff series. That was
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: a close series. Oklahoma City won three of the seven
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: games in that series, so it's not like they got
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: totally run out of the building in that series or
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: anything like that. San Antonio... only had the slight upper
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: hand in that series. And I think what it came
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: down to was Oklahoma City had major injuries. People don't
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: really weigh these injuries that big with Oklahoma City because
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: everybody just thinks, oh, Oklahoma City, it's SGA, and then
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: kind of everybody else. And I think they did lose
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: Dort coming off of the last couple of years, who
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: was one of their better defensive players. I think he
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: might be on a different team now. But this Oklahoma
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: City team is very deep, and I think one of
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: the main reasons they couldn't finish off that seven-game series
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: was two players Injuries that I thought were really crucial
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: that people don't really understand the value of. Jalen Williams
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: is hurt, the better of the two, because Oklahoma City
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: has two Jalen Williamses. The better Jalen Williams was out.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: And perhaps even more important, A.J. Mitchell was also out
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City at the end of that series. I
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: think they both missed the last couple games in that
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: series where they could have wound up winning that series otherwise. A.J.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Mitchell is a huge piece for Oklahoma City. He's not
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: a starter, but he's the guy who's going to get
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: their most bench minutes this year in pretty sure. He's
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: their number one guy off the bench, and he's going
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: to be in the running for the sixth man of
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: the year and stuff like that. This guy's good. People
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: don't really realize that. But Oklahoma City, they are a
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: completely different team with him versus without him. If you
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: look at what they did last year, I think they
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: were something like 50-7 with him healthy last year. And
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: in the games that he was hurt, they were like
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: 14-11 or something like that. And shout out to Steve Merrill.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Hopefully I got those stats right from Wager Talk. I
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: heard him give out those stats. But he's healthy right now, A.J. Mitchell.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: And Oklahoma City... had a way, way better, uh, win
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: record with him than without him last year. Like significantly,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: there were a better team with him. So yeah, all
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: that lines up. I think Oklahoma city is going to
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: get it, man. Um, You know, plus San Antonio, they
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: fall into that spot that I think is usually kind
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: of a hangover spot when a team gets that close
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: to winning a championship. And for these young guys, they
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: might not know how to handle it because they're all
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: still so young, right? I know it's Wemby. I know
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City didn't really know how to defend against him.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: I think they know how to defend against him. You
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: can't put Holmgren on him. That's all you got to do.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: You cannot put Holmgren on him. That's what you got
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: to do, man. You got to put Hartenstein on him,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: which I think Oklahoma City still has him. So I
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: think they know that. But San Antonio being this really
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: young team that got that close to winning the championship.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: And they had a couple of games against the Knicks
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: in that series, man. San Antonio, they had that one
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: game where they blew a massive lead. They had another
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: game where they lost right at the end after leading
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: pretty much the whole game. San Antonio had a couple
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: of games where they were like over 90% to win
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: the game, the entire game pretty much, and still lost.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: It's because they're a young team still figuring it out, man.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: And after that, they might be in a little bit
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: of a, like a, long-lasting hangover spot. So I do
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: like to fade the team that lost the championship a
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: lot of times in their first game. So I think
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: this is a spot to come in and do it,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: especially given that Oklahoma City wants this revenge against the
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: team that ended their season. Oklahoma City wants to prove
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: they're still here. They're still actually the best team in
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: the West. These are the top two teams in the West, though.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to question that. They're both really good.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: But the fact that San Antonio... Open two and a half,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: and some money has kind of driven this line down
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: towards the one and a half. That tells me that
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: it seems like the professional money does actually like Oklahoma
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: City here. The line is now kind of below where
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: that home court advantage number would be, so the line's
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: almost kind of telling you Oklahoma City is kind of
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: the better team here. The fact that they're this small
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: of an underdog on the road, so I like that too.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: And yeah, again, I think San Antonio, the hangover effect
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: might be real. Plus, San Antonio had to play that extra.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: After they played that grueling series against Oklahoma City, they
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: then had to play an extra series after that against
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: the Knicks. So Oklahoma City will have more rest, even
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: though I know both teams haven't played for a while now.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: But still, that wasn't that long ago, and Oklahoma City
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: did have a little bit more rest there because their
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: season ended a bit earlier than San Antonio's did. Yeah,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: we're going to take OKC. I think they're the deeper team.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: They're the more experienced team. They're in a revenge spot.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: That's what we're going to do here, although San Antonio
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: is getting some of the money based on the percentages here.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: 53% of tickets, 62% of the cash on them. I'm
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: still disagreeing with that. I'm going to agree with this
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: initial spread move here that dropped the line down. I
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: don't think you're going to get a better number than
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: this at this point, but We'll see. We'll take OKC
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: at whatever the better numbers he can get there. I mean,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: you could take the money line, I guess, on it
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: too if you really wanted to as an underdog there.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: And like I said, the money's also playing the under
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: in this game. The total's in the low 230s. I
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: agree with that for all the reasons I already said,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: plus the fact that these are good defensive teams. And
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City may still be the best defensive team in
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: the league. So that's what we're looking at here. Yes,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: thank you, sir. Yes, shout out to Topp. Um, well, um,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: as far as that being on a hat, I don't
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: know if I'm allowed to say anything, but there, that
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: may be happening. Let's just put it that way. Um, Okay,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: now we have college football. I know maybe I should
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: have saved NBA for last, but I always do football last.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: It's just the way that I am. I think people
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: are just most into football as far as betting. Maybe
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: not a Tuesday college football slate, though. I'm not interested
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: in any of these games either, but we got some
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: ugly games here. It's Conference USA and Sunbelt in action here.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: First game is on CBS Sports. All these games are
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: at 7 or 7.30 p.m., Eastern Middle Tennessee at Florida
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Internationals the first game up. This is by far the
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: ugliest of these games. This is probably going to be
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: the lowest scoring of these games. We're looking at two
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: pretty bad offenses here in this game between Middle Tennessee
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: and FIU. Really the only good unit on the field
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: here is the FIU defense. Their defense is legit. Everything
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: else about this game is real bad, so maybe that
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: means this is going to be a really ugly, low-scoring game,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: and the total is kind of indicating that. 45.5, that's low.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: The money's all coming in on the under. A total
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: that low with this setup, I wouldn't really disagree with
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: an under in this game. The thing you need the
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: answer to in this game is, is FIU's offense going
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: to be able to exploit Middle Tennessee's lack of defense. Like,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: which one is worse is the question. Middle Tennessee's defense
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: or Florida International's offense. That's what you kind of have
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: to figure out here, and that would also give you
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: the key to unlocking who's going to cover this game here.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: FIU's a 10-point favorite here. They are getting the money.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: 66% of tickets, 95% of the cash on FIU. They're
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: at 10, 10.5 now, but I don't really agree with
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: laying the points here. I mean, it's such a low total.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: You know that... I don't really love laying double digit
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: point spreads with a low total like this. I tend
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: to be leaning more towards the underdog, but of course,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: middle Tennessee might just get totally blanked in this game.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Their offense is putrid and
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: FIU's defense is very good. So there is the possibility
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: of the middle Tennessee really, really doesn't score in this game.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: And that would be what you need. If FIU is
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: going to cover this game, um, As far as the
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: situational setup, both teams played in the middle of last week,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: so the rest edge is not really a factor here.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee had a crazy kind of barn burner where
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: they pulled off what I think was a mild home
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: upset against Delaware last Tuesday. Delaware was without their starting quarterback,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: and for them tonight, we have to see if he's
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: actually back or not, which I'll talk about in a minute.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: So Middle Tennessee beat Delaware with Delaware's backup quarterback in there. Still,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was a decent win for Middle Tennessee.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: Delaware's an all-right team, better than Middle Tennessee is. But
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: you remember, I actually leaned Middle Tennessee in that game
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: because of what the situational setup looked like. Middle Tennessee
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: got the job done there. Now they're going to go
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: on the road, though, and play in Southern Florida, which
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: I think FIU is in the Miami area.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: FIU....
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: They're coming off kind of a big game last week
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville State. That was a big game, and they
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: fell just short and lost by three. That was a
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: big game. Jacksonville State's been a good team, man, in
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: this conference. And you know who else has been a
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: good team in this conference? Oh, yeah, that would be Liberty,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: probably the best team in the conference. That's who FIU
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: plays next. So I think you could argue this is
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot in between the two top teams in
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: this conference. Jacksonville State who Florida International just played to
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: within three points and Liberty up next although it's not
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: for 11 days but still that's the biggest factor I
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: think as far as the scheduling dynamics here is this
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: is a sandwich spot in my opinion for FIU where
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: they might be a little bit hung over from coming
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: off that big game they might have one eye looking
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: ahead to this big game against Liberty so I would
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: lean Middle Tennessee plus the points in this game that
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: kind of puts me over the top as far as
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: that side. It's not going to make my card, though.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: I really don't want to do it. And one thing
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: that I always point out with these midweek college football
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: games is the home team usually has a little bit
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: of an extra edge because it's like an isolated game,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: so the crowd tends to get more excited for it.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: So I think more fans tend to show up for
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: games like this. Oh, yeah, we get to be on
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: this bigger sports network, and they use it as kind
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: of like a showcase. So the home team.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: The home team, they're less likely to overlook these games.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Let's just put it that way. Whereas I'm talking about how, yeah,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: I think this is a sandwich spot for FIU. I
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: do think that's the case, but they might still show
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: up for a game like this just because it is
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: a big home TV game and one of the spotlight
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: games of the night, right? They kind of get showcased.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: So that kind of, you know, I won't say it
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: fully negates it, but it kind of cuts into how
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: bad the sandwich spot is a little bit. Let's just
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: put it that way. So I kind of have to
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: use like feel for kind of figuring that out, but
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: all the money's coming in on FIU in that game
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: and disagreeing with me. So do with that what you want. Uh,
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: ESPNU has Missouri state and Delaware. These two teams both
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: played in the middle of the week last week as well.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: We got a win with Missouri state last week on
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: the show. Uh, I thought they caught Kennesaw in basically
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: the same sandwich spot. I think, I think Kennesaw played
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: that game. I believe in between Jacksonville state and Liberty
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: as well, if I'm not mistaken. Um, So I think
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: that was the case there. Missouri State was able to
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: catch them and get the win as a home underdog.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: Now they're on a little bit of a short week
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: because they played on Wednesday. Now having to go on
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: the road to Delaware. Maybe a little bit of a
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: difficult spot for Missouri State, although Kennesaw hasn't been that
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: good this year. But that was a nice win for
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: Missouri State. Although the positive for Missouri State is it
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: ended a losing streak. And sometimes when you end a
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: losing streak, sometimes that will give you momentum moving forward.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: But for Delaware, they've lost three in a row, but
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: it's not as bad as maybe it looks because they
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: lost to Virginia and Liberty for two of those three games.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: And those teams are obviously... Those are better teams than
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: Missouri State, obviously.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: So.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: This is going to be a step down in class
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: for Delaware as far as that's concerned. However, they did
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: lose to a worse team than all three of those
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: teams last week, Middle Tennessee. But now Delaware's coming off
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: that kind of ugly loss. Could be a little bit
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: of a bounce back spot for them maybe here coming
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: into this game. They're hosting it here. The last time
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: they hosted a midweek game, it was a Friday game
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: actually against Liberty. They were not able to get the
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: job done. Like I said, Liberty's a strong team in
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: this conference, man, for sure. So maybe Delaware, they'll show
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: up because they're at home. They get another chance to
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: showcase themselves and finally actually get a win in one
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: of these showcase games. I'm not sure if their Coastal
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: Carolina game was or not. I don't think it was.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: I think that was a Saturday game because I think
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: I had that in my contest entry and it was
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: some bullshit failure to cover by Coastal. Anyway, Delaware, the
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: one thing you really have to kind of figure out here, though,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: for Delaware is... Our favorite guy, Minacucci, is he going
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: to be back here? Nick Minacucci is their quarterback. He's
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: been out for the last three games with an injury.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: He might be back. There was a chance he was
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: going to come back last week, and it didn't happen.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: I call him the tight pussy, mini coochie. Is Nick
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: tight pussy going to come back in this game? I
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: don't know. That's one of the things you have to
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: figure out here. And you know that I actually don't
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: like teams when their starting quarterback comes back as much
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: because I think he has to kind of work his
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: way back. I think there's maybe a little period of
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: time where he's not really totally in sync with his offense.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: He's got to work his way back from that injury,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: and that team tends to get a little bit overvalued
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: in the market. But I think it's more... impactful in
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: the NFL than it is in college. I think I
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: would just still lean to Delaware either way here, though.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: I don't really... Yeah, whether he's back or not, I
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: don't know. I think Delaware might decide to lean here anyway.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: 75% of the tickets, 95% of the cash on them,
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: so the money seems like it agrees with it. Totals
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: at 2.5. Basically 3, really, though, because of the juice.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: So the line hasn't really moved much, although it looks
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: like it did kind of move down a tick towards
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: Missouri State, but yeah, I would lean slightly towards Delaware.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: It looks like a public over, but the money's also
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: hitting the over 52.5 in that one. It's a mid-range
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: total there. I don't have a great feel for the
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: total in that game either, so I don't know. That
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: game's tough to figure out. And then the final game,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: which if you want scoring, it's probably going to be
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: this game that you want to watch. South Alabama and
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: Marshall is the last game on the board here, although
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: they're all kind of overlapping with each other. It's a 7.30 p.m.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: Eastern game on ESPN2. South Alabama, I mean, this is
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: a team with a really good offense and a really
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: bad defense. So they're a very over team, let's say.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: And the total obviously reflects this as you're looking at
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: a real high total here. It's gone all the way
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: up from 62.5 to 65.5. So I think if you
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: want the over, the real money is definitely backing the
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: over here. But you've lost a little bit of value
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: on the number. Although with a number kind of in
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: this range, this high range, The key numbers aren't really
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: that key anymore in this range, so I'd probably still
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: lean towards the over at this number, but obviously it's
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: less appealing at 65, 65 and a half than it
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: was at 62. Money slammed the over in this one.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: 55% of tickets on the under, 78% of the cash
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: on the over. So the money's definitely backing the over.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: That might still be the better way to play this
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: game just because of the style of play here. And
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: Marshall also is not good on defense either. So I
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: think there's going to be a lot of scoring in
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: this game both ways. As far as the side is concerned,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: South Alabama is a road favorite here. They are the
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: better team. They're coming off looking really good, and they've
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: had maybe too much time off. I know that sounds weird,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: but this team is rested. Well, they last played on
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: Thursday the 8th, so they had a bye week in here,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: and they had this really high-scoring win against Arkansas State,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: a 56-49 result. against Arkansas State, and that's what everybody
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: saw last. So people are going to like that. They
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: think that looks like a good win, a high-scoring win
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: for South Alabama. That was on the road. But given
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: that they won their last two games, and given the
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: fact that they gave up 35 points to UL Monroe
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: and 49 to Arkansas State, those are not very good teams, dude.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: And giving up that many points to those two teams,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: that's not good. Like I said, South Alabama's defense is
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: still not good. So again, that... Again, that's basically what
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: I already talked about with the over there. The over
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: definitely makes sense in this game. But... South Alabama having
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: extra time off might hurt them because I talk about
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: when you have a bye week coming into play when
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: you're on a win streak, that actually could disrupt your momentum.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: So I think that's a negative. So I think that's
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: bad for South Alabama coming into this one. Whereas for Marshall,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: they have a similar amount of time off, but they
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: went into it on multiple losses, if I remember correctly.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: So I think Marshall actually is going to be helped
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: more by the bye. Yeah, they have a little bit
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: less time off. They last played on the 10th. So
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: both teams have extra rest here, but I think it'll
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: help Marshall more. marshall has a little bit less rest
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: which south alabama might be getting into territory where they
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: have too much rest to be honest marshall with two
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: fewer days rest but they still have nine days off
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: here last they played they lost at home to coastal
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: carolina coastal not a good team man uh but yeah
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: marshall that's not a great loss obviously but their other
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: loss was against james madison on the road you can
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: obviously you know that's james madison's a very strong team
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: so That's not a bad loss. One of Marshall's other losses,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: their only other loss was at Penn State. You don't
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: expect them to win at Penn State either. So this
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: Marshall team, maybe not that bad, but their wins are
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: not impressive either, though. Their best win was at Missouri State.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: but the other thing about Marshall is we don't know
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: what they're going to be doing with their quarterback here
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: because Del Rio Wilson I don't know if they switched
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: away from him or if he got hurt I honestly
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: don't even know it looks like maybe they switched away
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: from him and then Zion not Zion Williamson Zion Turner
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: wound up getting most of the action for Marshall. Wilson
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: had three interceptions in six pass attempts in that game
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: against Coastal. So you've got to think they probably just
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: benched him. Del Rio Wilson, he was doing awful in
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: that game. So they switched to Turner, and Turner was
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: actually the better QB in that game by far. So
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: they're probably going to be rolling with Turner here, but
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's a bad thing for Marshall. It
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: looks like he might actually be an upgrade in their
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: quarterback situation there. And the fact that Marshall's coming up
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: that gross loss at home to Coastal, where I assume
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: Marshall was favored. Yeah, they were four and a half
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: point favor. Coastal's not that good. So I think as
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: far as the side, I think I would lean Marshall
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: in this one. I think the buy setup works better
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: for them. It's a more helpful buy setup to them,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: given that they went in on a really bad note.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: South Alabama went in on a good note. Marshall getting three,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: three and a half points at home here. South Alabama's
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: the public side, 84% of tickets. 70% of the cash
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: on them so the market is fading a public South
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: Alabama team here South Alabama doesn't really have a big
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: game on deck well actually you know what that is
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: kind of a bigger game La Tech I didn't realize
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: La Tech is actually the only other undefeated team in
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: the Sunbelt West with South Alabama they're actually tied South
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: Alabama and La Tech so that actually is kind of
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: a big game for South Alabama to look ahead to
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: with La Tech on deck so Possible look ahead there
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: as well. So, yeah, that bolsters the case for Marshall
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit more there. So, yeah, those would be
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: my leans here. And Marshall might be the best of
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: the three sides here, really, to be honest, even though
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: I kind of like the over in this game more.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: But Marshall might be the best of the three sides here,
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: even though I know I don't love underdogs with a
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: high total like that. But, I don't know, the spot
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: seems to indicate it in the– the market read seems
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: to indicate, even though I think FIU's sandwich spot looks
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse to me though. So yeah, those
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on all the college football. That's it.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: WNBA is off today and no MLB either because the
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: ALCS finished yesterday with the Rays winning that series. So Friday,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: the world series will begin with Tampa at Milwaukee. And
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: I might wind up having a play on that game.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: Got to figure it out. I think it, we probably
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: kind of know what the pitching matchup is going to
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: be there. It'll be probably both teams. Number one's going
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: at it in that one, but there might be a,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: you know, there's a scenario that I like to look
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: for with the rest versus rust type of scenario there.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: And which team might be a little bit overvalued. I
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: got a lot of flack for it already in one
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: of my other clips that I put out talking about
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: how I think the American league team might be a
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: little bit undervalued in that world series. Cause the public
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: likes to jump on what they saw last. I'll talk
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: about it on Friday show, but, Yeah, there may be
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: an angle there to look towards the Rays in game one.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: We'll see. That is kind of what I'm looking at
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: right now, whether or not I want to make a
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: play on the Rays. I will not be playing Milwaukee
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: in game one. I can tell you that already. That
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean that I don't think Milwaukee is still going
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: to win the series. They're probably a pretty hefty favorite,
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: so I'm not going to say I don't think they're
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: going to win the series. I just think there are
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: spots where you can get value by fading them in
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: that series, and game one might be a prime spot
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: to do that. Anyway, that's going to do it, because
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: they're off that huge sweep of the, or not sweep,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: was it a sweep? Maybe, no, they won all but
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: one game, I think is what it was against the Dodgers,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: or did they sweep? Maybe they did sweep. I don't remember,
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: but whatever. Beating the Dodgers handle, it just looks way
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: too good, and having too much time off might hurt
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: milwaukee in that early you know early on in that
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: series so that's what i'll say um that's gonna do
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: it though uh the two plays we have today i
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: like the hockey one the most though detroit red wings
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: our hockey's been pretty good so far and it typically
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: is i think hockey is i think hockey is overtaking
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: baseball is my second best sport so there's that and
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: then we're gonna be on the thunder plus the points
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: there as well in NBA to kick off the NBA season.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we kick it off right. That's going to tip
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: it off, whatever. That's going to do it. Learn to
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: tell it on Twitter. Learn to tell it on Instagram.
• 1:23:14
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• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: channel here. You'll get notified when I go live. I'm
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: trying to schedule these things a little bit early so
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: you kind of know what's upcoming. You'll get notified for
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: my night shows as well. listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: We're all there as well. I have uke, ukulele cover stuff.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: It covered in uke, patreon.com slash learn to toad, where
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to get that feed updated. There's a Spotify
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: ukulele feed over there, or if you just want to
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: support me and, you know, occasionally I'm going to do requests, um,
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: which I am trying to get done, but some of them,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: my voice just doesn't hold up. And, you know, this
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: show is definitely keeping me busy recently and trying to
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: overhaul this whole thing has been keeping me busy. So, um,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: All that going on. Hopefully people like the new look here.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: We have Losercast, a new episode tonight as well. And
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: I think that's it. Yeah, I appreciate it, everybody. Thanks
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: for hanging out this morning. Let's get it going. Let's
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: get some wins today. I'll be back tomorrow. Peace for now.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 4: Let somebody know you do not have.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: To lose this round alone.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 4: Let me.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: Pull you out That bad luck bites hard But it
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown Hold on.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: Hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 3: You're still here now.