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Big Names Stir Michigan Senate Race · Balance of Power

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Speaker 5: As we always save a seat for you here in
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Speaker 5: the studio and our eyes on Florida today. President's already
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Speaker 5: on his way. In fact, he'll be speaking about an
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Speaker 5: hour from now. At least that's the schedule in Fort Myers, Florida. Yes,
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Speaker 5: another red state on the Red State Roadshow. He's going
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Speaker 5: to stump for Byron Donalds, among other Republican candidates. Of course,
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Speaker 5: the congressman, a longtime ally of Donald Trump. He's running
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Speaker 5: for governor against David Jolion. It's close enough. The president
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Speaker 5: is getting on the plane to go down to Florida.
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Speaker 5: He'll be in Michigan this weekend as well. Coming off
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Speaker 5: his trip to Iowa, typically Trump country, knowing that farmers
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Speaker 5: coalesced around this president in the last election cycle. And
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Speaker 5: with diesel averaging six dollars and 30 cents right now
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Speaker 5: on top of the tariff impact.
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Speaker 6: Farmers have been hurting, and we saw polling.
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Speaker 5: Suggesting as much, which is why the president tried to
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Speaker 5: get right to the price of diesel when he spoke
1:27
Speaker 5: to Iowa farmers last evening, calling out Josh Turek for
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Speaker 5: abandoning the farming industry.
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Speaker 6: Let's listen.
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Speaker 7: We're taking care of our farmers and everybody else. I
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Speaker 7: announced the harvest fuel relief program, providing our farmers with
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Speaker 7: $ 8 billion to offset diesel costs in the harvest season.
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Speaker 7: He betrayed Iowa farmers by voting to help climate extremists
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Speaker 7: bankrupt your farms, and he campaigned with a radical left
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Speaker 7: group that wants to kill, absolutely kill, ethanol.
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Speaker 5: This on the heels of a farm journal survey. We
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Speaker 5: talked about it yesterday. This brings us all the way
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Speaker 5: back to April. Think of what's happened since then. 39%
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Speaker 5: of farmers considering voting for Democrats, they said only 6%
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Speaker 5: said they were typically those to vote Democratic.
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Speaker 6: So those are the stakes.
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Speaker 5: It's going to be a very different crowd today in Florida,
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Speaker 5: of course, but we're going to talk more about that.
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Speaker 5: the stakes in Iowa and that crowd, the president was
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Speaker 5: speaking to an awfully important contingency for the Trump campaign.
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Speaker 5: When we spent some time with David Kochel of red
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Speaker 5: wave communications, longtime Iowa Republican strategist, a sage in Iowa politics.
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Speaker 5: I'm looking forward to this conversation. Not unlike our white
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Speaker 5: house sage, Jeff Mason. He joins us right now, live
2:47
Speaker 5: in studio here in Washington, following the president's travels, our
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Speaker 5: white house correspondent, Jeff, it's interesting to see him get
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Speaker 5: back to Florida, Of course, he's no stranger.
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Speaker 6: That's home for him. But to be stumping.
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Speaker 5: For a candidate like Byron Donalds, who was supposed to
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Speaker 5: run home, we were told this race would be decided
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Speaker 5: in the primary.
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Speaker 6: For sure. What happened?
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Speaker 8: I mean, well, what happened there is what's happening all
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Speaker 8: across the country, which is the president's unpopularity is hurting
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Speaker 8: the rest of the party. And he is unpopular. There's
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Speaker 8: no doubt that the polls are showing that his Ratings
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Speaker 8: are low. And that translates very directly when it comes
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Speaker 8: to election time. And you've seen that in multiple other
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Speaker 8: elections with multiple other presidents. And it's happening now to him,
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Speaker 8: which is the reason why he's having to campaign in
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Speaker 8: these states that normally should have been totally wrapped up.
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Speaker 5: It was a big story a couple of weeks back
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Speaker 5: when Byron Donalds scrubbed his website of Trump references. This
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Speaker 5: is someone who's dyed in the wool, MAGA. Is it
3:43
Speaker 5: too late for that? He's going to be sharing a
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Speaker 5: stage with the man. He's got to say something nice.
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Speaker 6: About him tonight.
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Speaker 8: Well, I think the fact that he's sharing a stage
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Speaker 8: at all suggests that. He's trying to sort of play
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Speaker 8: it both ways or walk the wire, the line, whatever
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Speaker 8: the right analogy is in this case. He wants to
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Speaker 8: show maybe a little bit of distance for those voters
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Speaker 8: to whom that will appeal. But also, especially in Florida, again,
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Speaker 8: as we talked the last hour, there's this Republican base,
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Speaker 8: there's this MAGA base that he needs to show up
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Speaker 8: for him in the same way that they showed up
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Speaker 8: for President Trump in the last election.
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Speaker 5: He announced this $ 8 billion initiative in the hopes of
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Speaker 5: lowering taxes.
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Speaker 6: Fuel prices. It's not the only thing he's doing.
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Speaker 5: As I pull up Truth Social here, the president invoking
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Speaker 5: the Defense Production Act, not the first time he's done this,
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Speaker 5: to boost production and refining.
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Speaker 6: Will this actually make a difference? We've got 13 days. Okay.
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Speaker 8: Much like the others. Yeah. And also, I mean, the
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Speaker 8: Russian deal that the president talked about with regard to diesel,
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Speaker 8: that is more of a long-term thing that he's looking
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Speaker 8: for a short-term fix from. And the short-term fix so
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Speaker 8: far is not materializing. And it's that that he wanted, A,
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Speaker 8: at least to show that he was doing something. But
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Speaker 8: more specifically, I think he wanted to see those prices
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Speaker 8: just come down to a more palatable level. And they haven't.
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Speaker 5: Well, we're still at $ 6. 30 here. I'm just looking at
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Speaker 5: the AAA national average. A week ago, we were at $ 6.
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Speaker 6: 32.
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Speaker 5: To your point, that's the impact that the red diesel
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Speaker 5: and all the rest has had. A month ago, we
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Speaker 5: were at $ 6.
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Speaker 9: 52.
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Speaker 5: Maybe there's something to speak of here, but anything over
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Speaker 5: $ 6 is a budget buster for a farmer.
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Speaker 8: I'm paid to be skeptical, Joe, and I'm skeptical that
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Speaker 8: a little bit of a drop-down... Yeah. In diesel is
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Speaker 8: is going to make a big difference in voters minds
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Speaker 8: in the same way I was asked earlier today about
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Speaker 8: mortgage rates dipping down. Well, they're still over seven percent.
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Speaker 6: That's high.
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Speaker 8: And the president has tried to bring those down to
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Speaker 8: in part by pressuring the Fed to bring down interest rates, which,
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Speaker 8: of course, are connected to mortgage rates. But it's just
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Speaker 8: it's not happening quickly enough.
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Speaker 5: So is the message in Florida then tonight? Don't vote
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Speaker 5: for Democrats because prices will be even higher.
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Speaker 8: Yes, in that the president still, almost two years into
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Speaker 8: his second term, likes to blame Democrats and Joe Biden
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Speaker 8: for the fact that inflation is where it's at. But
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Speaker 8: the very truth is this is his economy. And the
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Speaker 8: Iran war and his tariffs and his policies broadly, economists
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Speaker 8: will tell you, have contributed to the rise in prices
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Speaker 8: and the high price of goods and fuel.
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Speaker 5: It's going to be fantastic.
6:19
Speaker 6: Up against Barack Obama this weekend.
6:21
Speaker 8: Isn't that an interesting pairing? Back to the future? Yeah,
6:24
Speaker 8: it is back to the future. I mean, both of
6:26
Speaker 8: them are the dominant figures still in their parties, but
6:31
Speaker 8: both of them in some ways are on their way out.
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Speaker 8: I mean, President Trump, either way, regardless of what happens
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Speaker 8: on November 3rd, this is his swan song as president.
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Speaker 8: He can't run for a He seems like he's even
6:43
Speaker 8: given that up. I mean, that's something he flirted with
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Speaker 8: despite the fact that it's not constitutional.
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Speaker 6: He dropped that idea last night.
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Speaker 1: Did he? I didn't even hear that last night.
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Speaker 6: He said, yeah, I might just run another time.
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Speaker 8: Well, so stand by if he tries to go back
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Speaker 8: to that. But I think it's become clear to him
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Speaker 8: that that's not something that he has a constitutional option
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Speaker 8: to do, which he doesn't. And so I've heard him
7:07
Speaker 8: at one of the rallies that I was at just
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Speaker 8: start sounding a little bit wistful because at some point
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Speaker 8: he will, at least the party will want him to
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Speaker 8: hand the baton. He may be reluctant to do that,
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Speaker 8: but this is about his legacy, this election now and
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Speaker 8: the next one that comes in two years, which I'm
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Speaker 8: sorry to tell you, Joe is going to start like
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Speaker 8: Within days of November 3rd is the next piece of his.
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Speaker 9: Legacy as well.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, we're booking you.
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Speaker 5: Producer James is booking you for November 4th for the
7:34
Speaker 5: beginning of the 2028 campaign cycle.
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Speaker 8: That sounds good.
7:36
Speaker 5: You think I'm kidding. Jeff Mason, Bloomberg White House correspondent,
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Speaker 5: knows I'm not kidding. Great work, as always. Thank you
7:41
Speaker 5: for being with us in studio. And thank you for
7:44
Speaker 5: being with us on the Friday edition. You know, with
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Speaker 5: Iowa in mind, we actually spent some time yesterday with
7:49
Speaker 5: somebody on the ground. Before we talk to David, maybe
7:52
Speaker 5: they know each other. Aaron Lehman is president of the
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Speaker 5: Iowa Farmers Union. He joined us with a quilt as
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Speaker 5: a backdrop and talked about the wish that farmers had
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Speaker 5: that their political leaders would stand up to ideas like tariffs,
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Speaker 5: like going to war with Iran and watching diesel prices follow.
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Speaker 6: Here's what he said.
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Speaker 10: There's a lot of relief needed. Temporary situations, though, don't really.
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Speaker 10: Address what has caused the problem.
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Speaker 6: Our Iowa farmers really.
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Speaker 10: Want a strong Iowa voice. We want our concerns, our
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Speaker 10: farmer concerns, our rural community concerns brought forward and be
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Speaker 10: a loud counterbalance to what the administration's policies have been.
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Speaker 10: We just have not seen that reaction from our Iowa folks.
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Speaker 6: Very real take on things.
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Speaker 5: We met David Kochel when we went to Iowa for
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Speaker 5: the caucuses a couple of years ago, the owner of
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Speaker 5: Red Wave Communications, a longtime Iowa strategist. When we asked,
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Speaker 5: who do you talk to? Who's the sage of Republican
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Speaker 5: politics in Iowa? They said, well, have you met David?
9:06
Speaker 5: former resident fellow at the Institute of Politics at Harvard's
9:09
Speaker 5: Kennedy School of Government. And we'll note he's currently a
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Speaker 5: vendor to Ashley Hinson's PAC, the Fight On PAC, because
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Speaker 5: he is steeped in Iowa politics and he's doing some
9:17
Speaker 5: outside advising to Zach Nunn as well. David, welcome back
9:21
Speaker 5: to Bloomberg TV and radio. It's great to see you
9:23
Speaker 5: and I appreciate your giving us some time today. Does
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Speaker 5: the mainstream media, does this conversation that we're having today
9:29
Speaker 5: ring true? Because a lot of folks think that these
9:32
Speaker 5: polls are not indicating what's actually happening on the ground
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Speaker 5: and that States like Iowa are not about to abandon Republicans.
9:39
Speaker 6: How about you?
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Speaker 12: Well, we're in a tough environment right now for Republicans, obviously.
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Speaker 12: Donald Trump is upside down by 10 or 12 points
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Speaker 12: in Iowa, which is not the normal case. And, you know,
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Speaker 12: it is due to the war, due to the high
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Speaker 12: cost of diesel. Iowa is an ag state and agriculture
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Speaker 12: is a particularly energy-dependent industry. And so, yeah, it's tough
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Speaker 12: times in Iowa right now economically because of that. You've
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Speaker 12: also got the tariffs. We've got you know, the beef
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Speaker 12: imports and things like that. There's plenty for Iowa farmers
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Speaker 12: right now to be kind of complaining about. And that's
10:17
Speaker 12: why you've seen, even in the last couple of weeks,
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Speaker 12: Ashley Hinson step out and criticize the war, telling the
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Speaker 12: president that we need to successfully conclude this war so
10:28
Speaker 12: that we can get these prices back down and get
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Speaker 12: our economy moving again.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's interesting.
10:33
Speaker 5: I don't know if you suggested that she make that move,
10:36
Speaker 5: but Ashley Henson has had to be very deliberate, along
10:38
Speaker 5: with folks like Mike Rogers in Michigan, even though she
10:42
Speaker 5: was standing in the Oval Office just a couple of
10:44
Speaker 5: weeks ago with the president, and he joined her on
10:46
Speaker 5: stage at a rally just last evening. How do you
10:51
Speaker 5: walk that line? And do Iowa voters see that as
10:55
Speaker 5: being enough?
10:57
Speaker 12: Well, it's a tricky line to walk. It takes courage
11:01
Speaker 12: to disagree with the president of your own party. So
11:04
Speaker 12: I give her credit for that. But I will say this. Look,
11:08
Speaker 12: Democrats are already fired up. I mean, they're going to vote.
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Speaker 12: They're at 11 right now out of 10. And for
11:16
Speaker 12: him to come in and hit Western Iowa like he
11:18
Speaker 12: did yesterday, Sioux City, which is kind of the heart
11:21
Speaker 12: of Republican territory in Iowa, is gonna motivate some people
11:26
Speaker 12: in his base that may not be that excited about
11:28
Speaker 12: the election. So Ned, I think it's probably good that
11:31
Speaker 12: he came to Iowa. It was right for Ashley to
11:33
Speaker 12: stand next to him. I'm sure that she was able
11:35
Speaker 12: to have a conversation with him backstage and make her
11:39
Speaker 12: views known. And I think the president, because he's announced
11:42
Speaker 12: this $ 8 billion relief program, he knows that he's got
11:47
Speaker 12: work to do here to try to bring people back
11:49
Speaker 12: into the fold. He'll be back in Iowa, it sounds like,
11:53
Speaker 12: in a few more days. And he's going to, I think,
11:55
Speaker 12: hit southwest Iowa, Council Bluffs. So he's going to the
11:59
Speaker 12: right places where we really need Republican enthusiasm to kick
12:03
Speaker 12: in here in the final 11 or so days of
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Speaker 12: this election.
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Speaker 9: Sure.
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Speaker 5: When you hear the case made there by Aaron Lehman
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Speaker 5: from the Iowa Farmers Union, you do start to wonder
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Speaker 5: if the president loses the farmers, does he lose Iowa
12:18
Speaker 5: or is it more nuanced than that?
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Speaker 12: I don't know that he's going to necessarily– look, the
12:23
Speaker 12: only thing less popular than this war and these high
12:27
Speaker 12: diesel prices is the National Democratic Party. So I don't
12:31
Speaker 12: think that farmers are going to abandon– they're not going
12:33
Speaker 12: to abandon the Republican Party. They're certainly– we certainly need
12:37
Speaker 12: them to be coming out in bigger numbers than what
12:40
Speaker 12: the polls.
12:41
Speaker 6: Are showing right now. Do they stay home though, David?
12:42
Speaker 5: You're exactly right. You need them to come out. You
12:44
Speaker 5: know they're not going to probably vote Democratic, but do
12:46
Speaker 5: they just stay home?
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Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, that's the trouble here. Iowa is one
12:51
Speaker 12: of those states that continues to swing pretty hard. I
12:55
Speaker 12: know it's become a more red state, but if you
12:57
Speaker 12: look in 2018 in Trump's first term, Governor Reynolds won
13:01
Speaker 12: her race by only three points. Four years later, when
13:04
Speaker 12: Biden was president, she wins it by basically 20 points.
13:07
Speaker 12: So that's a pretty big swing. from administration to administration.
13:11
Speaker 12: So we've got these historic headwinds that happen anytime you've
13:15
Speaker 12: got a party in power holding, in fact, the House,
13:19
Speaker 12: the Senate, and the White House. I mean, this is
13:22
Speaker 12: going to be a tough election either way. And you
13:24
Speaker 12: add to that these other factors that are really affecting
13:27
Speaker 12: the Iowa economy, and it makes it a heavier lift.
13:30
Speaker 12: And so for Ashley, in her particular case, the polls
13:33
Speaker 12: have them, basically the aggregated polls have them in a
13:38
Speaker 12: dead heat. I mean, it's basically 46-46. So, you know, look,
13:42
Speaker 12: I mean, she's going to have to defy gravity to
13:45
Speaker 12: win this election. Fortunately, she is one of the best
13:47
Speaker 12: candidates that we've seen around the country. She might be running.
13:51
Speaker 12: She probably is the star of this field in 2026.
13:55
Speaker 12: She might be the best candidate running nationally. And so
13:58
Speaker 12: she's doing better than other Republicans and I were doing.
14:01
Speaker 12: The candidate for governor, Zach Lane, is down outside the
14:04
Speaker 12: margin of error. We could have our first Democratic governor for,
14:08
Speaker 12: you know, a couple decades.
14:10
Speaker 8: Wow.
14:11
Speaker 6: Isn't that something?
14:12
Speaker 5: So, you know, we're 11 days out here, David, on
14:15
Speaker 5: November 4th, the beginning of the 2028 campaign. The RNC
14:19
Speaker 5: says Iowa stays first. I know the Democrats have a
14:22
Speaker 5: different take on the sequencing of primaries and caucuses. You're
14:25
Speaker 5: already getting phone calls about 2028, the real cycle?
14:30
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, it's coming. You have quiet conversations now.
14:34
Speaker 12: Nobody really wants to be talking about 2028 yet. In fact,
14:37
Speaker 12: when these candidates come into Iowa, the stump for Ashley
14:40
Speaker 12: and for our Republican congressional candidates, they're not talking about 2028.
14:44
Speaker 12: They're there to do the work for 2026 and try
14:47
Speaker 12: to get through this one. But it's not too far
14:51
Speaker 12: in the back of mind. And I imagine you might
14:53
Speaker 12: be calling me back on the 4th or 5th to
14:55
Speaker 12: come on and talk about how things are starting to heat.
14:57
Speaker 11: Up in Iowa.
14:58
Speaker 12: Yeah.
14:59
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, we missed the Tom Harkin steak fry. I mean,
15:02
Speaker 5: some things need to stay normal around here. But how
15:05
Speaker 5: quickly will these candidates emerge once we do get through
15:08
Speaker 5: the midterm elections? A lot of Democrats have been raising
15:11
Speaker 5: their hands. I mean, Mayor Pete's in a different swing
15:14
Speaker 5: state every day, it seems like.
15:15
Speaker 6: How about Republicans?
15:17
Speaker 12: I think it'll be a little bit slower. It'll be
15:20
Speaker 12: like ducks on the water. There might be a lot
15:22
Speaker 12: of stuff moving under the water you don't see. But
15:26
Speaker 12: I think Donald Trump is going to be particularly reluctant
15:29
Speaker 12: to turn over the lectern here. Obviously, you've got Vice
15:34
Speaker 12: President Vance, who was in Iowa a week and a
15:36
Speaker 12: half or so ago. Ted Cruz has been in Iowa.
15:40
Speaker 12: You'll see some others coming through. But my guess is
15:43
Speaker 12: the Republican contest is going to ramp up a little
15:45
Speaker 12: bit slower than the Democrats.
15:47
Speaker 5: Yeah, makes a lot of good sense, of course. David Kochel,
15:50
Speaker 5: it's great to see you. Thanks for spending some time
15:52
Speaker 5: with us, as always. Red Wave Communications and a real
15:57
Speaker 5: on-the-ground account in Iowa. Forget the polls and pundits for now.
16:01
Speaker 5: This is the man who's in the center of the activity.
16:04
Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Our panel's up next. Stay
16:07
Speaker 5: with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more
16:09
Speaker 5: coming up after this.
16:14
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16:31
Speaker 5: The second to last weekend on the trail. That's why
16:35
Speaker 5: you're going to see President Trump and Barack Obama on
16:37
Speaker 5: a stage, not together, albeit in Michigan. The president today
16:42
Speaker 5: in Florida. Bloomberg is on the ground at the moment
16:46
Speaker 5: in Kansas. This is a state we did not think
16:49
Speaker 5: would be part of the midterm conversation. But of course,
16:52
Speaker 5: we've spent many days talking about this and even saw
16:55
Speaker 5: the debate two nights ago between Senator Roger Marshall, Pastor Hamilton,
16:59
Speaker 5: a race that many believe is too close to call
17:02
Speaker 5: to the point where Republicans are surging cash from states
17:06
Speaker 5: like North Carolina into Kansas, which incidentally is also home
17:11
Speaker 5: to to the Agriculture Commodity Futures Conference, AgCon 2026. Underway
17:19
Speaker 5: in Overland Park, Kansas, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall there to talk
17:23
Speaker 5: to the CFTC chair, among others, and take part in
17:27
Speaker 5: this important conversation. This is a perilous time for the
17:30
Speaker 5: agricultural industry, as we just discussed with David Kochel. And
17:34
Speaker 5: so leave it to Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, normally on the
17:37
Speaker 5: North Lawn of the White House building, to find us
17:40
Speaker 5: somewhere in the middle of a cornfield, clearly outside Overland Park.
17:46
Speaker 6: Tyler, it's great to see you.
17:48
Speaker 5: You've managed to go to ground in what many consider
17:51
Speaker 5: to be the center of the political universe, or at
17:53
Speaker 5: least metaphorically speaking here in this midterm cycle. Give us
17:57
Speaker 5: a sense of, before we get into the Senate race there,
18:01
Speaker 5: the conversation at the Commodity Futures Conference and the concerns
18:05
Speaker 5: that some might have about diesel prices, tariffs, and the rest.
18:11
Speaker 9: Well, Joe, that definitely was a main subject and focus
18:15
Speaker 9: of the conference as we do look toward how farmers
18:19
Speaker 9: are using some interesting financial products to try to hedge
18:23
Speaker 9: their costs amid, as you're outlining, some headwinds in the industry. Now,
18:28
Speaker 9: I had the chance to sit down with the CFTC chair,
18:30
Speaker 9: Michael Selig. I spoke to him about a range of
18:33
Speaker 9: issues that have come under his jurisdiction, including his battle
18:36
Speaker 9: against to have sold jurisdiction over prediction markets in particular.
18:40
Speaker 9: And I was asking him about the idea that if
18:43
Speaker 9: we believe what prediction markets are saying, it looks like
18:45
Speaker 9: Democrats have an edge as we get closer to November?
18:49
Speaker 9: And what would that look like working with a democratically
18:52
Speaker 9: controlled Congress as a administrator in this Trump administration, including
18:57
Speaker 9: when it comes to crypto? Because, Joe, as you well know,
19:00
Speaker 9: we just saw the Senate a few weeks ago fail
19:02
Speaker 9: to pass that landmark digital asset market structure bill. And
19:06
Speaker 9: here's what he told me about what to expect next.
19:09
Speaker 11: Well, I'm very disappointed that Congress failed to send the
19:12
Speaker 11: Clarity Act to the president's desk. That legislation would have
19:15
Speaker 11: guaranteed to the American people that we have customer protections
19:19
Speaker 11: when it comes to crypto asset trading and would have
19:21
Speaker 11: mandated that these exchanges register with the CFTC.
19:28
Speaker 9: Joe, the chairman went on to tell me that he's
19:30
Speaker 9: working as quickly as he can to get some rules
19:33
Speaker 9: finalized into place to secure his regulatory authority over the market,
19:37
Speaker 9: though we'll have to wait and see how this ends up,
19:39
Speaker 9: considering that we know that there have been some concerns
19:43
Speaker 9: from some in Congress, mainly Democratic lawmakers, when it comes
19:46
Speaker 9: to the future of oversight in the industry.
19:49
Speaker 5: You've had quite a diverse day, Tyler, from that interview
19:53
Speaker 5: to a cornfield now. What are you hearing about politics?
19:57
Speaker 5: The president was there just a couple of nights ago.
19:59
Speaker 5: We had, of course, a huge debate there, as I mentioned,
20:01
Speaker 5: Hamilton versus Rogers. Is this being seen as too close
20:05
Speaker 5: to call on the ground, the way the national media
20:08
Speaker 5: has portrayed it?
20:11
Speaker 9: It depends on who you talk to. We have spoken
20:14
Speaker 9: to people on both sides of the aisle about this
20:17
Speaker 9: race in particular. As you mentioned, fuel costs are definitely
20:21
Speaker 9: coming into the discourse when it comes to this contest,
20:24
Speaker 9: a contest that hasn't seen a Democrat win a Senate
20:26
Speaker 9: seat in Kansas since 1990. But look at the national
20:29
Speaker 9: average for diesel today, $ 6.
20:30
Speaker 1: 32.
20:31
Speaker 9: In Kansas, it's around $ 6.
20:33
Speaker 13: 07.
20:33
Speaker 9: Of course, lower than the national average, but significantly higher
20:38
Speaker 9: than pre-war levels. And as you mentioned, I'm standing right
20:41
Speaker 9: now in the middle of a cornfield in the middle.
20:43
Speaker 3: Of harvest season.
20:44
Speaker 9: And I actually just caught up with a farmer who
20:45
Speaker 9: told me that higher fuel costs are adding about $ 2
20:47
Speaker 9: per acre. to his overall cost, which he says doesn't
20:52
Speaker 9: sound like a lot, but that it adds up very
20:54
Speaker 9: quickly when you're talking about the hundreds of acres that
20:56
Speaker 9: they are planting. He did say, though, that he understands
20:59
Speaker 9: the idea of short-term pain for long-term gain in terms
21:03
Speaker 9: of President Trump's objectives when it comes to the conflict
21:05
Speaker 9: in Iran, though he added he would like to see
21:07
Speaker 9: that conflict wrapped up as quickly as possible as possible.
21:11
Speaker 9: local farmers continue to see these higher prices. And it's
21:14
Speaker 9: not just farm fuel costs, trucking costs. We should also
21:17
Speaker 9: think about fertilizer. There is a massive amount of fertilizer
21:20
Speaker 9: that has been used, and this is an area that
21:22
Speaker 9: uses a lot of it and continues to see supply
21:24
Speaker 9: disruptions because of.
21:25
Speaker 3: The Strait of Hormuz.
21:26
Speaker 9: Joe, I will quickly add our analysts at Bloomberg Economics
21:29
Speaker 9: say that the biggest shift in sentiment over the last
21:32
Speaker 9: two months has come from Midwestern states, and that is
21:35
Speaker 9: creating more headwinds for the GOP state.
21:37
Speaker 3: For the GOP.
21:38
Speaker 5: Just another reason for Tyler to be in Spring Hill, Kansas.
21:43
Speaker 5: Do they have red diesel on that truck behind you, Tyler?
21:45
Speaker 6: Maybe you can find out.
21:49
Speaker 1: That is such a good question.
21:50
Speaker 9: I actually asked a farmer that and he said that
21:52
Speaker 9: he welcomed that development from the Trump administration. But at
21:56
Speaker 9: the end of the day, it really hasn't made that
21:58
Speaker 9: big a dent when it comes to prices. He did
22:00
Speaker 9: also acknowledge that we saw an $ 8 billion package rolled
22:03
Speaker 9: out by the USDA, though still questions about when farmers
22:06
Speaker 9: are going to receive that assistance.
22:08
Speaker 6: Fantastic.
22:09
Speaker 5: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, long way from Washington right now. Can
22:14
Speaker 5: we get someone to pick her up in that cornfield?
22:16
Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew, and thank you for being with us
22:18
Speaker 5: here on the Friday edition of Balance of Power. Having
22:21
Speaker 5: heard all of that, let's assemble our political panel. We've
22:24
Speaker 5: got a good one today. Bloomberg politics contributor Jeannie Shanzano
22:26
Speaker 5: is with us, our Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow
22:29
Speaker 5: at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. She's joined by Republican
22:32
Speaker 5: strategist Lisa Camuso Miller, founder, Friday reporter, public affairs, former
22:37
Speaker 5: RNC communications director. Lisa, you just saw Tyler Kendall go
22:42
Speaker 5: all the way to Kansas to give us a report
22:44
Speaker 5: from the middle of a cornfield. This is arguably where
22:47
Speaker 5: the midterm elections will be decided. Can Donald Trump win
22:50
Speaker 5: the heartland?
22:52
Speaker 14: Yeah, I think it's still going to be if we
22:55
Speaker 14: lose Kansas, the night is over, Joe. I'm going to
22:57
Speaker 14: tell you that right now. I think the issue with
22:59
Speaker 14: it that Tyler brings up is a very good one.
23:01
Speaker 14: I think that it is absolutely critical that Republicans seize
23:06
Speaker 14: on the opportunity to talk about affordability, what plans are
23:10
Speaker 14: in place to make sure that we make it So
23:13
Speaker 14: that farmers aren't feeling this pinch that she talks so
23:16
Speaker 14: eloquently about. It is an important and a critical issue.
23:20
Speaker 14: But ultimately, it's not going to be, this is not
23:22
Speaker 14: going to be a state where we're going to see
23:24
Speaker 14: a tremendous amount of change as it relates to party control.
23:27
Speaker 14: It's going to be in other districts and other places
23:30
Speaker 14: that I think we're definitely going to see adjustments. But
23:32
Speaker 14: people are unhappy. And the one thing, Joe, I continue
23:35
Speaker 14: to say, and I'm a broken record until after November,
23:39
Speaker 14: but it's going to be about turnout. And so the
23:42
Speaker 14: more the candidates can talk about the issues. the more
23:45
Speaker 14: the parties can demonstrate what it is they're going to
23:47
Speaker 14: do to make changes to keep it from being, you know,
23:52
Speaker 14: to be an obstacle for their success in the businesses
23:55
Speaker 14: that they're running, that's absolutely going to be incumbent on
23:59
Speaker 14: whoever it is going to be victorious on Election Day.
24:02
Speaker 5: Well, I thought it was really interesting, Tyler, referring to
24:05
Speaker 5: this farmer she spoke with, who said he actually supports
24:08
Speaker 5: the war with Iran in principle. and thought that it
24:13
Speaker 5: was worth the longer-term tradeoff to have a denuclearized Iran.
24:18
Speaker 5: He just wants the war to stop because diesel is
24:20
Speaker 5: so expensive. Jeanne Shanzano, this weekend we're going to turn
24:23
Speaker 5: our attention to Michigan because Donald Trump and Barack Obama
24:27
Speaker 5: are going to be there.
24:28
Speaker 6: Trump, of course, stumping for Mike Rogers.
24:30
Speaker 5: Barack Obama will be stumping for Abdul El-Sayed, who the
24:33
Speaker 5: president likes to refer to as Muhammad. But he had
24:36
Speaker 5: a lot worse to say about the Democratic nominee than
24:39
Speaker 5: that before he left the White House today.
24:41
Speaker 9: Listen.
24:42
Speaker 13: He's a total phony. He's a little phony. And everything
24:46
Speaker 13: about him is fake. And he's a liar. And he
24:49
Speaker 13: talks about all these things like he's a moderate. He's
24:52
Speaker 13: not a moderate. He's a jihadist. He's a vicious, violent jihadist.
24:57
Speaker 13: And he has no place in our government.
25:00
Speaker 6: Who's the audience for that kind of language, Jeannie?
25:04
Speaker 1: It's the base.
25:05
Speaker 3: This is all about getting out the base. That's why
25:07
Speaker 3: both Barack Obama and Donald Trump are going to Michigan,
25:11
Speaker 3: because we have Michigan early voting. They're trying to get
25:14
Speaker 3: their respective bases out. The problem the president has is
25:19
Speaker 3: something that we talk about in polling, which is comparing
25:22
Speaker 3: the strongly agrees and strongly disagrees. And when you look
25:26
Speaker 3: at Donald Trump's approval rating in Michigan, his strongly approve
25:31
Speaker 3: or strongly agree that he's doing a good job is 15%.
25:36
Speaker 3: The strongly disagree or disapprove is 52%. That means, you know.
25:42
Speaker 3: Three times as many Michiganders disapprove of the job he
25:48
Speaker 3: is doing. That reflects what we are likely to see
25:51
Speaker 3: as turnout and enthusiasm to turn out in the polls.
25:55
Speaker 3: And that's why they're both out there and drumming this up.
25:57
Speaker 3: And that's quite frankly why the president is resorting, as
26:00
Speaker 3: he likes to do, to this deplorable, divisive, othering language.
26:05
Speaker 3: But none of that matters when you look at the
26:08
Speaker 3: price of gas in Michigan. You were just talking about
26:10
Speaker 3: it in Kansas with Tyler. You look at it in Michigan.
26:13
Speaker 3: It's up something like 32 percent in the last two days.
26:17
Speaker 3: So he can say whatever he wants about Abdul Al-Sayed.
26:21
Speaker 3: Unfortunately for the president, this is not about Al-Sayed. It
26:24
Speaker 3: is a referendum on him, his administration, the many promises
26:28
Speaker 3: he made and the very many promises he broke. No
26:32
Speaker 3: endless wars, addressing costs, being a solid steward of the economy.
26:37
Speaker 3: All of those broken promises. He starts the week cozying
26:40
Speaker 3: up to Putin, ends it defending a woman whose husband
26:44
Speaker 3: is accused of sexually abusing her child. That's where the
26:48
Speaker 3: president is. And of course, in between using foul language
26:51
Speaker 3: about the Democratic candidate for Michigan.
26:55
Speaker 6: We talked about that ad.
26:56
Speaker 5: Jeannie refers to the Vivek Ramaswamy ad against Amy Acton
27:00
Speaker 5: earlier this Lisa, when you hear language like the president
27:04
Speaker 5: used today in our remaining 30 seconds as a professional communicator,
27:08
Speaker 5: what's the impact on voters? Is there a corrosive impact?
27:11
Speaker 5: Or in 2026, it just goes in one ear and
27:13
Speaker 5: out the other.
27:15
Speaker 14: I think it's a little bit of both, Joe. I
27:17
Speaker 14: think Jeannie makes a really good point. The president is
27:20
Speaker 14: underwater in Michigan, and so he's going to be as
27:22
Speaker 14: sensational as possible to try to draw out that base
27:26
Speaker 14: and get people excited about voting. But ultimately, this negativity
27:30
Speaker 14: is exactly what's going to keep people from coming out
27:33
Speaker 14: and voting. And that's concerning for for either party. And
27:37
Speaker 14: so we've got to see what will happen here. But ultimately,
27:39
Speaker 14: I think it has a negative effect overall.
27:42
Speaker 5: Well, if turnout is what matters, then we have a problem, Houston.
27:45
Speaker 5: Jeanne Shanzano and Lisa Camuso-Miller, thank you both so much
27:50
Speaker 5: for your insights today.
27:51
Speaker 6: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
27:53
Speaker 6: more coming up after this.
27:58
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
28:01
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28:04
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28:12
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
28:15
Speaker 5: It's going to be an interesting weekend on the campaign trail.
28:19
Speaker 5: As we've been telling you, Donald Trump and Barack Obama
28:21
Speaker 5: will both be in Michigan. And by the time we
28:24
Speaker 5: are back together next week, it will be the last
28:27
Speaker 5: big push.
28:28
Speaker 6: One week until the midterms.
28:31
Speaker 5: A lot of folks have been saying, and we talked
28:33
Speaker 5: to David Kochel about this a little bit earlier in
28:36
Speaker 5: the hour, the week after that will be the beginning
28:39
Speaker 5: of the 2028 election cycle.
28:41
Speaker 6: You better believe it.
28:42
Speaker 5: While we're digging through results on November 4th, there are
28:45
Speaker 5: going to be infant presidential campaigns emerging around the country.
28:54
Speaker 5: By November 5th, it appears ground will be broken on
28:59
Speaker 5: an arch here in Washington.
29:00
Speaker 6: Have you seen this today?
29:01
Speaker 5: The Washington Post reporting the administration is poised to swiftly
29:05
Speaker 5: begin construction of the triumphal arch, the Parisian-style arch that
29:10
Speaker 5: the president wants to have over in Arlington on the
29:12
Speaker 5: other side of the river. We're going to start this
29:15
Speaker 5: in early November, November 5th. That is the day that
29:19
Speaker 5: the National Capital Planning Commission will meet. which is, of course,
29:23
Speaker 5: a board full of the president's hand-picked talent here to
29:29
Speaker 5: approve this 250-foot-tall arch. The Department of Justice says in
29:34
Speaker 5: a court filing that construction will begin that same day,
29:38
Speaker 5: November 5th. if the Interior Department and National Park Service
29:41
Speaker 5: also provide same-day authorization, and that shouldn't be too much
29:45
Speaker 5: of a problem. It looks like they're going to call
29:48
Speaker 5: this the Independence Arch, according to the Post. 250 feet
29:53
Speaker 5: tall will be topped with a 60-foot winged statue and
29:58
Speaker 5: an eternal flame. which is going to be quite a
30:01
Speaker 5: sight for the aircraft on final approach to Reagan National Airport.
30:05
Speaker 5: The bottom of the channel they fly in is at
30:09
Speaker 5: 300 feet on final approach. There is no word, by
30:13
Speaker 5: the way, in this most recent filing and no belief
30:16
Speaker 5: that when they start construction that this will be a
30:18
Speaker 5: sniper's nest or ammo depot or drone port, as the
30:21
Speaker 5: president had suggested. This will simply be a triumphal arch.
30:27
Speaker 5: You know, we talk about the midterm so much about
30:30
Speaker 5: being the Senate and the House. If you're lucky, you
30:33
Speaker 5: get a little bit of analysis on governors' races. But
30:38
Speaker 5: state legislatures are something that we all need to be
30:41
Speaker 5: watching next week. And it's why the States Project is
30:45
Speaker 5: so important. We have news about the TSP announcing it
30:49
Speaker 5: raised $ 100 million to support state legislative efforts in this cycle,
30:53
Speaker 5: which is the largest ever ever. Single cycle investment focused
30:58
Speaker 5: on state legislatures, state lawmakers, your state rep, your state senator,
31:03
Speaker 5: blowing away the groups, as I read, previous record investment
31:06
Speaker 5: in the 2024 cycle. And we want to get into
31:09
Speaker 5: this with Daniel Squadron, co-founder of the States Project, author
31:13
Speaker 5: of the book, The Fourth Branch, How State Government Can
31:16
Speaker 5: Save Our Union. And we should note, former New York
31:18
Speaker 5: state senator. He represented parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan. from
31:22
Speaker 5: 2009 to 2017. Daniel Squadron, welcome back to Bloomberg TV
31:26
Speaker 5: and Radio. What do you do with $ 100 million when
31:28
Speaker 5: you have an entire nation to invest in?
31:33
Speaker 2: It's a reminder that while we're really proud of the
31:35
Speaker 2: grassroots givers that powered that, when you look at 50 states,
31:40
Speaker 2: 99 state legislative chambers, 50 governors, and the importance for
31:44
Speaker 2: the outcome of the country, it's actually a pittance compared
31:46
Speaker 2: to even one very competitive U.S.
31:48
Speaker 6: Senate race.
31:49
Speaker 2: But what you do is you try to make sure
31:52
Speaker 2: you just talked about the fact that the 2020 presidential
31:54
Speaker 2: election is going to start the day after Election Day.
31:57
Speaker 2: Whether states are controlled by people who want to have
32:00
Speaker 2: a free and fair election or not, will be a
32:02
Speaker 2: big part of what starts the day after Election Day.
32:05
Speaker 2: So in Arizona, in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Minnesota, in Pennsylvania,
32:09
Speaker 2: there's the possibility to have trifectas, the governor and both
32:13
Speaker 2: chambers of the legislature, controlled by folks who oppose Trump
32:17
Speaker 2: and Republicans' attempts to undermine the election. In places like
32:21
Speaker 2: Nebraska and other states around the country, either presidential electors
32:25
Speaker 2: or literal congressional seats are on the line because Donald
32:28
Speaker 2: Trump sent off a mid-decade election. arms race on redistricting.
32:32
Speaker 2: So we're happy to have it and really happy by
32:35
Speaker 2: the support that people have been giving to turn into states,
32:38
Speaker 2: but we still think it's a pittance of what it
32:40
Speaker 2: should be.
32:41
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, it is, relatively speaking.
32:43
Speaker 5: My goodness, you could spend $ 100 million on a House
32:45
Speaker 5: race in this country and hardly get arrested. Hundreds of
32:48
Speaker 5: millions are going into Senate races. So When you're dealing
32:52
Speaker 5: with state legislatures, are you buying TV time? Is this
32:56
Speaker 5: money for ground ops, door knocking? Is it phone calls, Daniel,
33:01
Speaker 5: or is it all of the above?
33:04
Speaker 2: You know, state legislative races are almost like campaigns as
33:08
Speaker 2: folks who sort of only look at the national level
33:10
Speaker 2: think of them, except with some kind of nice changes.
33:13
Speaker 2: One is When you knock on doors as the candidate
33:16
Speaker 2: in a state legislative race, you're much more likely to
33:18
Speaker 2: actually knock on that door that decides the race. Meet
33:21
Speaker 2: the voter who's going to be the decision maker because
33:24
Speaker 2: these are smaller districts. And so more sort of democracy,
33:27
Speaker 2: as I think we would all wish it was played,
33:29
Speaker 2: is happening. So we help candidates be able to get
33:33
Speaker 2: off the phones, not raising money from special interests, instead
33:35
Speaker 2: knocking on doors. There are TV ads. in state legislative
33:39
Speaker 2: races because you do need to get known, mailers, all
33:42
Speaker 2: of those other things. The difference is that the decisive
33:46
Speaker 2: races will probably come down to just a couple of
33:48
Speaker 2: dozen votes. So every vote, every minute that anyone is
33:52
Speaker 2: helping a state legislative race is vastly more likely to
33:56
Speaker 2: be the decisive minute.
33:58
Speaker 6: Okay, really interesting.
34:00
Speaker 5: You were chair of the New York State Senate Democratic
34:03
Speaker 5: Policy Group.
34:04
Speaker 6: You're coming at this as a Democrat.
34:06
Speaker 5: How many state houses hold Republican supermajorities, and do you
34:09
Speaker 5: target them first?
34:11
Speaker 2: Supermajorities, there are over a dozen. You know, it really depends.
34:18
Speaker 2: 99 legislative chambers, every state has its own sort of
34:21
Speaker 2: threshold for where power really matters. So in a place
34:25
Speaker 2: like Indiana or Missouri, breaking the supermajority threshold can really
34:29
Speaker 2: matter if Rob Sand is successful in Iowa making sure
34:33
Speaker 2: that he's able to govern with the mandate that people
34:35
Speaker 2: have given him. So there's not a supermajority blocking him
34:37
Speaker 2: will be really important. And then on the other side,
34:40
Speaker 2: it's also really important to get unified governing power so
34:43
Speaker 2: you can actually make the case to people that when
34:46
Speaker 2: it comes to affordability, when it comes to the things
34:48
Speaker 2: they're most worried about in their lives, you actually can,
34:50
Speaker 2: given the chance, deliver for them.
34:53
Speaker 6: Really interesting.
34:55
Speaker 5: A lot of folks have talked about the potential for
34:57
Speaker 5: litigation following the election on a federal level, if this
35:03
Speaker 5: doesn't go the way Donald Trump wants it to, if
35:06
Speaker 5: it doesn't go in line with what the administration is
35:10
Speaker 5: talking about, are the national elections this cycle going to
35:14
Speaker 5: be decided on the state level, at the statehouse level?
35:19
Speaker 6: Absolutely.
35:20
Speaker 2: You know, as you know, states administer our elections. They
35:24
Speaker 2: run them. They determine who can vote, how those votes
35:27
Speaker 2: are counted, whether they're certified. And we know this because
35:31
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is obsessed with undermining the independence of states.
35:35
Speaker 2: That was true of the SAVE Act, which hasn't passed.
35:37
Speaker 2: It's true of unlawful executive orders he's put out. It's
35:39
Speaker 2: true of a lawsuit he filed just recently. All of
35:43
Speaker 2: it is about trying to prevent states from exercising their
35:47
Speaker 2: constitutional authority to run elections in ways that can't be
35:52
Speaker 2: controlled by a control-obsessed president of a single party who
35:58
Speaker 2: doesn't care anything about the people's voices and the democracy.
36:01
Speaker 2: All of this question that folks have about the legitimacy
36:05
Speaker 2: of the election is all about whether states are given
36:08
Speaker 2: the ability to run their elections without interference from Donald
36:12
Speaker 2: Trump and folks who would rather voters didn't have a say.
36:18
Speaker 3: Interesting.
36:19
Speaker 6: We're down to 11 days here. How quickly do you
36:22
Speaker 6: need to deploy this money? You know.
36:26
Speaker 2: 10 days ago. Look, it's still helpful. A lot of
36:30
Speaker 2: people are still turning toward the election. I know if
36:32
Speaker 2: you're watching this show, you've been thinking about it for
36:34
Speaker 2: a while, but a lot of voters or potential voters
36:37
Speaker 2: are just now thinking, should I do it or not?
36:39
Speaker 2: So there's still opportunity to communicate with voters, to get
36:42
Speaker 2: folks known. And this is especially true on the state
36:44
Speaker 2: legislative level. If you're in Maine or Texas, then you
36:49
Speaker 2: almost certainly know the competitive congressional candidates and U.S. Senate
36:53
Speaker 2: and gubernatorial candidates. You may still not know the state
36:56
Speaker 2: legislative laws.
36:58
Speaker 6: Well, that's right, Daniel. Look, a lot of people learn
37:00
Speaker 6: in the voting booth, right?
37:02
Speaker 5: They take the ballot, they start at the top and
37:04
Speaker 5: start going down, and it gets to be a little
37:07
Speaker 5: bit abstract toward the bottom of the ballot. How important
37:10
Speaker 5: are coattails in these national races for state lawmakers?
37:16
Speaker 2: Like at any level of the ballot, if we're being
37:19
Speaker 2: truthful about politics in America, the vast majority of voters
37:21
Speaker 2: know everyone they're going to vote for before the season
37:24
Speaker 2: even starts based on the D or the R next
37:26
Speaker 2: to their name. But we also know that the decisive
37:29
Speaker 2: voters are winnable. they're much more winnable at the state
37:32
Speaker 2: legislative level. Research has shown 20% or more voters are
37:38
Speaker 2: willing to consider flipping parties when it comes to state
37:42
Speaker 2: legislature relative to the top.
37:44
Speaker 6: Of the ballot.
37:45
Speaker 2: This is a place where if you meet the candidate
37:48
Speaker 2: at Little League or in the supermarket, if you knew
37:50
Speaker 2: them because they were the high school principal or high
37:54
Speaker 2: school track star a couple of decades ago, you might
37:57
Speaker 2: actually be willing to think, you know, the other side
37:59
Speaker 2: isn't so terrible. Not everyone on the other side wants
38:02
Speaker 2: to destroy our country and our freedoms. And so it's
38:06
Speaker 2: a much more persuadable place to be doing politics. And
38:10
Speaker 2: between that and the fact that actually, literally the viewers
38:13
Speaker 2: right now could decide outcomes in some of these key
38:16
Speaker 2: states that will decide whether we have a free and
38:18
Speaker 2: fair presidential election, states are the place where all of
38:21
Speaker 2: the cynicism and sort of sense of powerlessness about politics
38:27
Speaker 2: melts away because there's no reason to be cynical when
38:30
Speaker 2: you have regular people just sort of working to do
38:33
Speaker 2: it as a side job and because you actually could
38:36
Speaker 2: be decisive.
38:38
Speaker 9: Right.
38:39
Speaker 6: Really interesting.
38:40
Speaker 5: I want to mention a breaking news story Daniel, the
38:43
Speaker 5: president is expected to remove some tariffs on Canada and
38:47
Speaker 5: a bid to help the Republican Senate incumbent in Maine,
38:51
Speaker 5: Susan Collins.
38:52
Speaker 6: This is the Wall Street Journal reporting this.
38:54
Speaker 5: Expected to remove 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian products,
38:57
Speaker 5: including certain agricultural and forestry products, and a bid to
39:01
Speaker 5: help the Collins campaign. The tariff reductions could be balanced
39:05
Speaker 5: out by hiking tariffs. on other Canadian goods. The scope
39:09
Speaker 5: and timing of the action could change. This is just
39:11
Speaker 5: breaking and you're going to see a red headline on
39:13
Speaker 5: your terminal likely before the program is done.
39:16
Speaker 6: Just like that, says producer James.
39:18
Speaker 5: Daniel, are issues like these playing into state level races
39:24
Speaker 5: or is it much more local? Do tariffs and the
39:27
Speaker 5: cost of diesel change voters' minds on the state level?
39:34
Speaker 12: Absolutely.
39:35
Speaker 2: And for good reason, because actually a lot of the
39:38
Speaker 2: factors that determine whether people can make ends meet from
39:41
Speaker 2: housing costs to actually what it takes to own a
39:44
Speaker 2: car and be able to commute to work where gasoline
39:46
Speaker 2: is only one of the costs to the price of
39:48
Speaker 2: groceries actually have a huge impact on states, as does
39:52
Speaker 2: how much you make for an hour's work. Since most
39:55
Speaker 2: states have minimum wage above the federal government, you know,
39:58
Speaker 2: it's pretty interesting because I know a lot of folks
40:01
Speaker 2: who are willing to stand up to Trump in Michigan
40:03
Speaker 2: and Maine on this tariff issue, because in both those states,
40:06
Speaker 2: the economy is so, so tied with cross-border work. And
40:10
Speaker 2: that's about local businesses. That's about service businesses, medical providers
40:15
Speaker 2: and others. And I think it's pretty telling that. that
40:18
Speaker 2: all of these folks who are Trump's allies have stayed
40:21
Speaker 2: totally silent on this until, what, 11 days before the election?
40:25
Speaker 2: Because we know that it's been very, very clear in
40:28
Speaker 2: these Canadian border states just how terrible this is for
40:31
Speaker 2: people trying to make a living.
40:34
Speaker 6: Really interesting.
40:35
Speaker 5: Just 30 seconds left, Daniel. Do lawn signs matter anymore?
40:38
Speaker 5: I don't see that many in my neighborhood this cycle.
40:42
Speaker 2: Well, the anymore is the question. Look, long signs, demonstrating
40:46
Speaker 2: your enthusiasm for people. It can be great. The single
40:49
Speaker 2: most effective thing you can do in politics is make
40:52
Speaker 2: a contribution to a state legislative candidate in a competitive
40:55
Speaker 2: chamber and ask three friends to do it. This is
40:58
Speaker 2: not what most people are doing. And this is the
41:00
Speaker 2: way you can have the biggest outsized impact.
41:03
Speaker 5: He's co-founder of the States Project. Daniel Squadron. Daniel, thank
41:07
Speaker 5: you for bringing us to ground. They say all news
41:11
Speaker 5: is local. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
41:18
Speaker 5: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify,
41:22
Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts.
41:24
Speaker 6: And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C.
41:26
Speaker 6: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg.com.