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250: Why the Snow Isn’t Coming and What That Means Moving Forward with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are going over the
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  weather pattern and what is happening in the world of the
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  weather right now. We are talking winter storms,
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  we're talking droughts. We talked some summer heat waves
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  as well and some early predictors that we are seeing as
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  far as all of those things are concerned.
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  Before we hop into today's podcast episode with Gary, if
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  you are watching on YouTube, make sure you take a second to
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  hit subscribe to our channel and you like this episode.
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  If you're watching on any of our other podcast platforms, make
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  sure you are following the show and go right and review it as
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  well. Without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hear from Gary. Lisa, welcome to the Cattle USA
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  Daily podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock
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  markets, industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
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  today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, welcome back to the
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  podcast How is Life in Beautiful Colorado?
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  Well, it snowed last night, so we've had one inch of snow boy,
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  here in Golden, Co, the snow drought continues, but besides
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  that, we'll talk about that here in a minute.
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  I'm doing great. Everything's fantastic.
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  The Chase being out of the playoffs of the NFL picture was
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  probably good. So you don't we're not
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  devastated like some of these other teams are just absolutely
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  devastated. The Buffalo Bills are just
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  destroyed. Now the head coach gets fired.
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  And So what happens when you lose?
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  So the Chiefs lost a long time ago.
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  So maybe they're getting some perspective for next year.
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  But other than that, I'm doing great.
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  And the weather is fascinating. A lot to talk about today.
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  So exciting My husband and I were having the same
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  conversation. We were watching the Bills game
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  this weekend because we were both like, Dang, it's nice to
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  watch a football game and kind of like enjoy it and not be
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  stressed the whole time like we were, we're cheering for the
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  Bills. So it was, it was a rough game
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  in that aspect, but I was like, it's kind of nice to sit back
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  and not be so emotionally invested in the game.
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  So I I understand that for. Don't put money on the game I
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  put, whether it's $10.00 or $60.00 or more.
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  I never bet more than that. But but when, when, when I when
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  you put a put a wager on one of these games, you tend to watch
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  the entire game and you're like every single play matters.
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  Not that every single play didn't matter in some of these
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  games anyway, but you know, and then I lost every single bat,
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  every single one. But this, this weekend was like
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  every single one. I mean, and some of them should
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  not have been, I say should have done it.
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  They obviously should have happened because they did what
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  they did, but whatever, don't bet.
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  Yeah, don't do it. My husband and I were in
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  Deadwood this weekend with some family on a ski trip and they've
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  got casinos busting at the seams there.
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  And I was like, all right, here's $50.00 in cash.
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  Let's go. Let's go play a little bit less
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  than like I would say Gary, less than two minutes, all of it
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  gone. I was like, and I'm good for the
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  weekend. On to the next one.
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  Boys, girls. I've got a $200 limit for my
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  entire trip to Lake Tahoe and gambling and two minutes there.
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  You lost it all and that's it. Stick to your budget.
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  Yep, exactly. Exactly.
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  Oh boy, oh boy, how exciting. Well, what are what are we
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  seeing in the weather this week? Gary?
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  What are the updates that you got for us?
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  Everything's on schedule and sometimes with the LRC and if
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  you're new to the LRC, brief introduction.
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  The weather pattern is cycling regularly and we're able to
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  predict what's going to happen. We're able to predict how the
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  weather pattern is going to look in the River Vera above us.
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  That dictates what happens at the surface across the entire
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  northern hemisphere. So we put a lot of pressure on
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  us to get in 100% accurate and it's absolutely fascinating that
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  we have found the DNA of the atmosphere to make these
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  predictions, but we're not going to be 100% the River Vera.
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  They're cycling nearly perfectly by our predictions.
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  We'll have some successes and some some failures.
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  What is really good at is predicting these risk windows.
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  All right, so maybe that's a new term.
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  I probably have talked about it over the years, but there's a
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  risk window for California, for example.
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  They're going to get hit by a storm system, by a series of
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  storm systems most likely in the first half of February.
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  But that one's shaky. It always has been shaky.
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  The one that is for certain, which means an 80% probability,
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  is the risk of a major series of storms in the first half of
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  March. That's what I'm really
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  predicting. But it could happen as early as
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  the first half of February for various reasons.
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  So there's a risk window for California to get hit and
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  companies can prepare. There's a risk window for when
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  severe weather is going to strike for your location.
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  And could there be a winter storm this week?
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  There's going to be a major winter storm possibly in Texas.
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  It's being hyped up a lot. Freezing rain, sleet and some
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  snow that could impact parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.
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  Kansas City, Manhattan on the northern edge of this system.
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  So there may be a little bit of light snow, but it does look
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  like it's targeting areas farther to the South.
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  But there's a risk window for that.
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  So what does it mean for each location?
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  Texas is the center of where there could be some impacts this
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  week. And so that's what we do.
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  We predict when and where things are going to happen.
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  And right now in Colorado, it is a major snow drought.
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  If you're getting our weather Intelligence Report,
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  weather2020.substack.com, Lauren will tell you the links are
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  below and you can click on there and get get this for a low
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  discounted cost for the whole year.
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  You will learn about the LRCA lot.
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  But in that report last week, I did put in their whole showcase
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  of what's happening in Colorado. It is the lowest snow year ever
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  at this moment. There is never been a year with
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  less snow that's over the Rocky Mountains that has ever been
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  recorded. So as long as that's happened,
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  so that is not good news for fire season, for fire danger.
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  That is not good news for the ski resorts which are seeing a
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  25% the revenue decline this year, what with customers not
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  coming out there to ski because the snow is so low.
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  And it's not good news for the reservoirs of where the water
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  will go flow into, from melting snow, the spring and summer into
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  the Colorado River basin, etcetera.
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  So we know that's part of the pattern.
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  Why? Why, Lauren, is it so dry in
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  Colorado? One of the core principles of
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  the LRC is this Anchorage that forms from Texas up into
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  Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, southern Montana.
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  There's this Anchorage that weakens storm systems.
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  Storm systems are weaker all they still get hit by a few, but
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  they're weaker and less frequent usually.
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  And that's the cause of the LRC is actually the main reason why
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  it's the lowest year ever. It's pretty interesting.
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  Wow, that's fascinating. What are we seeing as far as
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  winter storm systems as we go into the rest of January, into
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  February, into March? What are kind of your
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  predictions and thoughts specifically for the Midwest and
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  just any other major ones that we're thinking that we're going
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  to see as we kind of move forward and can prep for that?
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  In a few weeks, we're going to put our severe weather outlook
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  out. I haven't done a complete
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  analysis of that. One thing that is clear, just so
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  everyone understands the same pattern we have been in will
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  continue. The weak La Ninia conditions,
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  which is cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely going
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  to switch to neutral. There's sunny neutral or or or a
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  little positive heading towards El Nino possibly for next winter
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  conditions. Some out there think the pattern
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  is going to change and also there's been major storms in
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  Colorado. No, because the pattern is
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  cycling. The LRC is a centerpiece, the
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  big atmospheric puzzles. The the point is that's not
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  going to change. So we're going to, we, we got
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  our forecast out and there's concern areas.
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  The big window of concern is for a major heat wave this summer
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  for corn prices for corn yield production and, and how, how,
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  how your yields will be this year that will be dependent on
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  whether the corn is made or not. So mid-May to late May, the heat
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  wave part of the pattern I'll call the heat wave segment of
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  the LRC will cycle through. And when that happens, will it
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  Omega block develop over the middle part of the country and
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  stop storm systems and all of a sudden it's drying out.
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  That could compound on the what's heading towards us this
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  summer or could that set up into zones where there's heavy
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  thunderstorms and eliminating that possibility and increasing
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  corn yields? Just a lot to think about.
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  I, I'm, I'm leaning in the direction of some drought
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  developing Nebraska area and we'll be expanding to other
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  areas we'll see or could be isolated to Nebraska.
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  I'm not sure yet, but that's something in the next 3 or 4
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  weeks right here on this podcast, we will discuss and as
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  soon as I put my finger on it, we're going to put the forecast
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  out weeks and months before planting even begins.
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  Very exciting. And then as far as droughts and
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  expanding or shrinking or things like that, we've talked about it
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  before, but you have any updated thoughts or anything as we kind
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  of look out for the next few months?
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  Yeah, right now the the drought areas have not been expanding
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  yet, OK. In Colorado they have.
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  That's where the snow drought is, is like AD 4 drought right
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  over the ski areas. That's what the next few weeks
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  will be. We got to monitor that.
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  And if you do look at that or if you just read the reports that I
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  write, we will show whether it's expanding or shrinking.
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  If it starts expanding in February into March as
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  temperatures start to warm up, that's going to become a big red
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  flag. The next few weeks are going to
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  define this. And for your farm, for your,
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  your in the Cali, USA region, you know, how will this impact
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  you? You know, if you, if you do, if
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  you are a member, throw me a question and I'll try to answer
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  it for you. But the answers are going to
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  gradually come way in advance of planting, growing and harvest.
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  We will have that forecast out here in the next few weeks.
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  Yes, so exciting. Well, Gary, is there anything
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  else that we didn't hit on today as far as the weather is
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  concerned that we need to touch on before we wrap it up?
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  No, the justice this pattern is amazing.
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  And you know, I, I think you know, as we talked about
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  earlier, I put a lot of pressure on myself and it's fascinating
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  what we're bringing to you this technology we're bringing and
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  you know, I want to showcase these risk windows.
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  So then you are prepared for the decisions you'll be making out
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  in the fields. So that's our goal is to provide
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  insight, information and data to have you make profitable
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  decisions. And yes, I can get a little
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  wishy washy here, but as soon as we know like for example, this
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  is not wishy washy, August 1st is going to be a major heat
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  wave. That's our prediction
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  probability that happening very high 80%, I'd say 20% chance it
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  doesn't quite materialize or it's weak.
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  I think it's going to be strong. And the question is what was
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  five days lowering the impact or could it be 15 days and could
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  have add on to what already started in May.
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  That's what we're trying to figure out right now and I think
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  we'll have our our finger on it. But the chance of a heat wave at
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  the hottest time of the year is very high.
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  We're not just saying, hey, it's going to be hot at the end of
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  July. That we know, but an impacting
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  heat wave is what we are now predicting.
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  Wonderful. Well, we will definitely as we
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  go forward in the next few weeks, be staying plugged in to
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  everything that is happening as it continues to develop, as we
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  continue to see more signs for our winter forecast and as we go
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  into spring, summer, what we need to be preparing for there.
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  Gary, thank you for your time as always to all of our listeners.
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  Gary said it earlier in the podcast.
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  Make sure you check out the show notes down below.
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  If you want to check out anything, whether it be Gary,
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  Sub Stack, Weather 2020, their product, anything like that.
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  It is all down in the show notes for you there.
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  Gary. Thank you every time to all of
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  your listeners out there. We will see you all next time on
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  another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
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  Have a good one y'all.