Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/6/26: WH Meeting On Russian Plague, Iran Lights Up Hormuz, GOP Panic Over Kansas

Transcript

10/6/26: WH Meeting On Russian Plague, Iran Lights Up Hormuz, GOP Panic Over Kansas · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: can up our game for this critical election.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: for everybody today. It's good to see you. Emily, do
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: we do a pound? What do we do?
• 0:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, sure.
• 0:32
  Speaker 5: We still haven't locked down the fascist points.
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like a little bit of... I've been listening
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: to this. Arcs go out to you.
• 0:41
  Speaker 5: Sagar was sending his heart to everyone.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just sending my heart out to everyone. So,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: what do we have here on the show today? We're
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: going to start off with a lab leak update. Annie
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Jacobson joined us yesterday. Expert commentary, considering her New book,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: which details a lot of the scenario, sort of dig
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: into more of the details, multiple border shutdowns around some
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: of the surrounding areas from Irkutsk, so Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: other countries, either closing or monitoring travelers of a complete
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: information shutdown coming inside of Russia. They are denying officially plague, quote, rumors,
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: which many people joked is absolutely confirmation that all of
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: it is true. and the Secretary of State and other
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: high-level U.S. officials, kind of sounding not officially the alarm,
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: but calling out Russia, considering and pressing for more information.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: So obviously, if we've lived through COVID, we're going to
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: monitor these signals very, very closely, and we'll give you
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: all of the information that we.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Have so far.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Next, we're going to talk about all the developments that
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: are currently happening in the Middle East. Specifically, though, we're
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: going to start with Yemen, where it appears overnight that
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: the Houthis did retake much of the territory. which was
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: taken from them from Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia's back forces.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: In the Yemeni government. Additionally, more signs that the U.S.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Government is heavily backing both intelligence and the military campaign
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: of Saudis against the Houthis, in addition to some increasing
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: crunch in the oil markets and some at least current
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: signs that the east-west pipeline from Saudi Arabia is has
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: been targeted, and the Saudi CEO Aramco coming out and
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: confirming an official number of barrels per day that's moving
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: through the pipeline, which is a little bit lower than
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: where things were previously, which could indicate at the very
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: least some damage that was done.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: This is just a teaser. You just did a full block. No,
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: this is what we do.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I guess, you know, I'm inexperienced, so I just throw
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: out as much information as possible. Crystal, you guys are
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: much better than I am.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: Logan Phillips is coming.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: He is going to stop by for our midterm check-in.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: We'll check in on his model, all of the latest
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: election developments.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Trump may or may not saying that it'd be fine
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: to nuke San Diego and Los Angeles, in addition to
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of other very inspiring pitches about why you
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: should vote for him for $ 5, 000, or pretend he's on
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: the ballot, and if Republicans win, you'll get your $ 5, 000 check.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Sam Altman, in a new interview, says that we just
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: have to accept, quote, what is it, some bad things.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: That happen for the benefits of this technology.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: Isn't that nice? And he's the one who gets to
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: decide what we accept. So yeah, we're going to go
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: through some updates in AI, but this particular Sam Altman
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: interview he gave to Politico yesterday, you're really going to
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: want to stay around and listen to it.
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: It's pretty crazy.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: And then absolute civil war breaking out in the NBA.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Wemby coming out and actually calling out many of his
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: own colleagues, saying that he would never do a deal
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: with sports betting company, while LeBron James is actually making
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: more from his partnership with Polymarket, and Kevin Durant is defending...
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: his partnership with FanDuel. This is some additional gambling news
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: that has come out just in the last several hours,
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: including the Democratic nominee for governor, Keisha Lance Bottom, saying
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: that she wants a statewide vote on casino gambling and
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: says legalization would be economic tool for struggling communities in Georgia.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that's really how you're going to pull yourself
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: up by your bootstraps is by putting it all on
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: red at the roulette table. Finally, Emily, you know more.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: about this independent Senate candidate, Todd Achilles. He will be
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: joining us. He was sent to us via our friend
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Andrew Yang for an interview. So he's going to stop by.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: You and I are going to talk to him. He's
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: running for Senate in Idaho as an independent.
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: And people may remember, we showed some of his ads.
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: They've been massively viral. But it's a race a lot
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: of people aren't paying attention to, except for when his
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: ads pop. He's been going after the Republican incumbent, Jim Risch,
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: just brutally stunting on him. So we're going to ask
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: him about some of those ads. And get a little
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: bit of insight into the state of the race that
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: is probably tighter than people realize. He's not exactly winning.
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: The polls are kind of all over the map.
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: Who's polling in Idaho?
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: You're doing midterm polling in Idaho, right. So that's why
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: it's good to sometimes talk to the candidates and get
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: a feel for what's really happening on the ground.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: There's a potential to be a shock. Nonetheless, it's interesting.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know a ton about Idaho.
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: Yeah, if the environment is really, really bad for Republicans,
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: which we're expecting it to be, you never know what
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: happens in these races.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: There you go. All right.
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: Thank you to everybody who's been signing up for the show, BreakingPoints.com.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: All right, so.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: Yesterday, Ryan's pitch was, you're probably going to die of
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: plague and be choking in your own blood in a month.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: So what does it even mean to.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Sign up and potentially forget to cancel and have $ 10
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: be charged to your credit card? Today, I have a
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: Ryan-specific pitch, which I always try to make it about Ryan.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: So yesterday, Ryan in the AMA is lamenting that there
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: is a specific fish show in Richmond, but he doesn't
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: know if he can make it work.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: So my pitch is... I will fill in.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: For Ryan and I will make sure, I will make
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: sure that Ryan gets to go to the fish show,
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: but 100 people have to sign up in the next
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: 48 hours.
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: Guarantee you will hit that mark.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: All right, so if 100 people want to sign up
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: and want me to have to work extra, and fill
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: in for my good friend Ryan Grimm so he can
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: go and enjoy his fish show.
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: His debauchery.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: That's up to you. That is up to you.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: Whether Ryan gets a drop acid and goes smoke marijuana
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: with a bunch of other degenerates at fish.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: His fate's in your hands. Otherwise, he's going to be
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: sitting here at the desk.
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: It's as close as you can get to getting Sager
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: to smoke weed.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: There you go.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: And, you know, I previously said Baklava, I'll buy his tickets.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: There you go. I'll buy his tickets. All right.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Now, babysitter, he'll have to figure that out.
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: I might sign up again. Yeah.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: Just so Ryan could go. So there's your pitch, everybody.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: If you're watching this on YouTube, hit subscribe to our channel.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Listen to the podcast, share an episode with a friend.
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: Longest intro literally ever. I apologize. Not that great at this.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Let's start off with what we know about this lab
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: leak situation. Let's put the first element up on the screen.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: currently breaking out of Russia. So right now, the Kremlin
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: is telling Russians to, quote, ignore rumors of a possible
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: plague outbreak in Siberia.
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: U.S.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: And EU officials all saying that they are monitoring the situation.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: So the Russian presidential spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said that the
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: lead agency in this area is their National Public Health
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: and Consumer Protection Agency's People should rely on its official
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: statements and, quote, disregard rumors, speculation, and so on. They
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: are highly qualified professionals that are in the field. Let's
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: put A1 up here on the screen and actually take
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: a listen to what Trump and Rubio are saying, both
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: being asked about it at the White House yesterday.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: I am.
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: I have not spoken to them about it, but I am.
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: The pneumonia.
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: What's your level of concern? Well, I hate to see
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: them having it.
• 7:32
  Speaker 7: We know what we know, obviously, about whatever the Russians
• 7:35
  Speaker 7: have provided, which is it seems that there was a
• 7:38
  Speaker 7: worker at the lab that was infected, and there's concern
• 7:41
  Speaker 7: that that, you know, could have spread, at least internally.
• 7:45
  Speaker 7: So you've seen them do quarantines of that nature. There's
• 7:49
  Speaker 7: very limited travel between the U.S. and Russia, obviously. But
• 7:52
  Speaker 7: like anything else, something.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: Like that gets out, it could quickly spread.
• 7:55
  Speaker 7: So we're watching and monitoring it closely. I don't think
• 7:58
  Speaker 7: it's cause for alarm, but it is cause for focus
• 8:00
  Speaker 7: and a cause to just keep an eye on it.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: And we're doing that.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: So that is the current line from Secretary Rubio. He
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: also appeared this morning in a press conference where he
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: said that Russia needs to be more transparent about it.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: What we do know, Emily, with some of these signs.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Let's put A2 up here on the screen from on
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: the ground. This is from a Guardian reporter, Peter Sauer.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: He says, a woman who went to an Irkutsk maternity
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: hospital for a routine visit today told him that staff
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: checked her for symptoms of plague and asked her to
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: fill in a form. Experts currently stressing the disease is
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: easily treatable with antibiotics. So one of the things that
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: really struck me in our interview with Annie Jacobson yesterday
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: was was basically that if you contract the bacteria, you
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: have a 100% casualty rate. If you get the antibiotics
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: within a 24-hour period, and this was apparently based on
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: a broad-based European study of the bacteria, if you take
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: the correct antibiotics, then it falls to 17%.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: And so obviously it's highly deadly.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: In some cases, that would actually mean that the level
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: of how much it will decimate your immune system And
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: how sick you are actually means you're very less likely,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: like with COVID, to go out and spread it as much.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: So there's some optimism in terms of being able to
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: contain everything. But for what we know right now is
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: that the Russian story makes literally no sense, right, with
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: the lab leak. And so that is, I think, the
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: scary part.
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: And obviously they're checking people in hospitals. Well, yeah, it's horrifying.
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: So Secretary Rubio was pretty careful there. I mean— Remember
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: when John Ratcliffe went to Moscow? There's something obviously strange.
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: It's not entirely surprising. Do we know how it manifests?
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: Like Annie Jacobson was saying, you can have it and
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: you will likely know. You are symptomatic. Do we know
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: what the asymptomatic occurrence of it is? If anything.
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: I was looking.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: A little bit this morning, there was some like PubMed
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: stuff that was posted. So basically here's, here's like what
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: we know right now, but this is more quarantine related.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: I'm going to read again from some information that was
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: put out by Annie. The current quarantine that they have
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: going on in our coots is, quote, inconsistent with plague
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: unless it has been engineered to be pan-resistant. And I
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: think that's why the bigger question around this, is this
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: a naturally occurring pneumonic plague or is it a lab-resistant
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: or genetically engineered bioweapon leak? So they say that the
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: good news is that even with a pan-resistant strain, it
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: could still likely be controlled due to a relatively low
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: R0 of 1.4 To 2.4, quote, evolution selects directly for replication.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: It is hard to increase a baseline pathogen transmissibility. Vaccine evasion,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: treatment resistance, or enhanced virulence are much more likely. So
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: it should be possible to contain the Akut's pathogen if
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: it is plagued. If we are lucky, then the Russians
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: are overreacting. It's not something that can spread. It could
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: perhaps even be an information hoax or anything. So I'm
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: just putting out all of the information that we have
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: now currently. The thing that, I mean, one of the
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: reasons why I still take it a little bit seriously,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: let's put A3 up here on the screen, was these
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: border controls that have now been put in place. So
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: from the Caspian Post, this is all these Central Asian
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: news outlets, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have tightened their border controls
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: over disease concerns and health alerts in Irkutsk. Uzbekistan apparently
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: tightened sanitary control after this report of a possible plague
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: case in Russia.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: There is a circulating daily mail.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: Report is happening right now as we're on the air
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: that a second victim had died now to be clear
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: that is from the daily mail on an anonymous source
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: that they apparently have has not been confirmed by russian
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: authorities the problem is the initial death obviously was confirmed
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: by russian authorities but then they're like oh it's not
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: a plague don't worry about it this is a rumor
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: so you know just like with covid and much more
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: all of these things are now beginning to like There's
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: suspicion from many different information outlets. Obviously, you should be
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: suspicious of the Russian government. You should be suspicious of
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: our government. I do, generally, you have to look at
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: the actions. So Secretary Rubio, Trump, they're being asked about
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: it because of media reports.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: Now, let's put A4 on the screen. And this is
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: the one where I was like, oh, this is actually serious.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: Is that Annie Jacobson yesterday, and by the way, it's
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: all now been confirmed by other news outlets, is that
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: there was a principals meeting at the White House yesterday
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: morning to discuss the plague accident at the BSL-3 lab
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: in Siberia. Now, the reason why I think that's important is, remember,
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: these are the people who have the most information, the
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: highest level of intelligence, CIA, satellite, all of that, etc. Principals'
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: meetings are not easy to put together. What it means
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: is it means, usually, is the way that it works out,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: is you bring the vice president, the secretary of the treasury,
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: the secretary of state, all of the core principles, the
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: heads of the departments together to coordinate a response or
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: do some sort of an intelligence review. And so I
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: think when you can look at the Kremlin denying the reports,
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: the fact that the current way they're handling things is
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: not consistent with a naturally occurring lab leak. The fact
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: that the lab worker apparently died and then came into
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: contact with some 200 other people as Annie had put
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: it yesterday, if that had happened and she had known
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: that she had been exposed in that way, she would
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: have pulled the alarm. She never would have been allowed
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: to leave. They're locking down much of the information that's
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: coming out of the region, Irkutsk. I mean, Ryan did
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: check yesterday. There are still flights that are coming in
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: and out of the city, I think, even including international
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: flights like Beijing and probably Ulaanbaatar as well. And other
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: countries have not yet shut down travel.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: But we're trying to stay on top of this situation.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Just because, as we all saw with COVID, you know,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: one can become 50 all very quickly. And, you know,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: there were a lot of signs in the initial days,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: like with COVID, which, again, I understood totally for virus,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: you know, much less lethal and all that, et cetera.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: But the consequences here being so high in the Russian
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: government's actions right now, not exactly, you know, inspiring a
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: lot of confidence.
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: Well, unlike COVID, we're also in a hot proxy war
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: with Russia right now. So they're engaged in like a
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: massive battlefield hot war. And that's a totally, also, by
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: the way, you'll know this better than I do, but
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: I assume our intelligence in Russia is very good. So
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: I will assume that they have a better handle of
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: what's happening than they're publicly intimating. But I also expect
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: because they're meeting in the White House, we will know
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: more about tomorrow. There will be leaks.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: The way it was put to me is our intelligence
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: is very good at certain things. So for example, like, Okay,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: let's say even with Lab League, they didn't have that.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: CIA and all that, they assessed it later, but they
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: didn't have that insight. I'm not entirely convinced of that.
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, maybe they knew the whole time. But let's
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: say with Russia, what are they good at?
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Well, the CIA, since 1950, has had a mandate to
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: analyze military buildups, operations, and assess Kremlin decision-making. So you'll recall,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: I was very skeptical Russia was going to invade Ukraine,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: and part of it was all these warnings from the CIA.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: And I'm like, what do these people know? I'm like,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: these people have missed like Afghanistan, you know, they missed
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: all these things. Well, it's like, okay, they actually do
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: have a certain skill set on their military, or let's
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: say on Kremlin decision making, or at the very least,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: like trying to see what they decided to tell the
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: military to do. But even then, I wouldn't say that
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: they're exactly like phenomenal at it.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: Well, this is a little bit different.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: This is the 25th largest city in Russia, but it
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: is in Siberia, you know, it's very far away from
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: the capital. And Russia is very able to shut down
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: a lot of the information. From what I understand, I
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: was reading a little bit more yesterday from infectious disease experts,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: a significant part of the movement between cities from Siberia
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: to the rest of Russia is by the train system.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: And so they're like, if this is going to spread,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: it's going to be from a train. It's very difficult.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: You're going to be so sick with this plague that
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: you wouldn't even be able to get up, go to the.
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: Airport and like get on a flight.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Whereas a train, you know, you could contract it by
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: that time you get sick and then you could be
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: in touch with more people. So if we do see
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: the Russian train system begin to shut down, that's going
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: to be another indication now currently.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: Let's put, what is.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: It, A6, please?
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: Did Annie also weigh in on the incubation period?
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so what she was talking about here was the outbreak.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: It's difficult to say because she's assessing off of the
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: naturally occurring one, whereas opposed to this could be either lab-resistant, genetically-engineered,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: some sort of bioweapon.
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Put the A6, please, on the screen.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: So currently, the CDC, the State Department, and the Administration
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: for Strategic Preparedness and Response have all tried to learn
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: more about the death of this lab worker. And apparently,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: they basically don't know anything. All they really know, which
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: is the same thing that we do, is that this
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: lab worker works at the Institute of Plague, dies of plague,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: quarantines are now on several hospitals in Siberia, and that's
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: about it. Quote, the situation has been complicated by Russian officials'
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: hesitation to share information, as well as reports that Russian
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: intelligence officers have been involved. We don't have a lot
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: of intel. It's in Siberia. Quote, unless someone gets on
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: a plane and gets to the U.S., it is low risk.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: We should be alert but not panicked. All of this
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: fits now currently kind of with what we know. And
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: there was, they confirm, like I said earlier, a senior
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: health and national security officials all met at the White
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: House today. yesterday to discuss what was known about the case,
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: possible next steps. Currently, the public health agency in Russia
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: is only saying it has undertaken a set of anti-epidemic
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: measures in the Irkutsk region after the death of this
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: 28-year-old woman who worked at.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: The Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: But one thing I do think is important is that
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: Annie flagged to us yesterday, this lab is known to
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: have been a part of the Soviet bioweapons program. So
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: to say it's just some, oh, it's like anti-plague institute.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: I'm like, well, as we all learned through gain of function,
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: anti-plague can sometimes mean, let's genetically engineer plague to be
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: more virulent, and then we'll develop a vaccine to stop
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: the more virulent.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: They're like, well, why don't you just not do it
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: in the first place?
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: It almost always means that.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's like, you know, all the scientists are
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: out here saying, they're like, look, you know, we have
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: pretty good treatment options for naturally occurring plague.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: It should be fine.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: You take some Cipro within 24 hours, at least in
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: the developed world, you know, the ability to contain All
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: of this. But I think what's really raising everybody's alarm
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: is obviously plague. The word itself is scary. But is
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: the notion that the current actions of the Russian government
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: and the way that this leaked out of that lab
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: and came into contact, shutting down hospitals, quarantine, the maternity ward.
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: I mean, that doesn't just happen.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: You don't just get a screener for plague whenever you
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: happen to go into the hospital for some routine sort
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: of checkup. None of that is consistent with the natural
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: strain of what we see.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: Now currently.
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: Well, and it's not fair to say that almost all
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: research in this space is dual use, but a huge,
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: huge chunk of it is dual use. Meaning, yeah, meaning
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: that it's also, you get the funding in order to,
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: obviously I have no idea how this works in Russia,
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: but you get the funding in order to also develop
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: dual use strategies or research into how it can potentially
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: be used in a military situation or even defensively, but
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: it's often involves the military and intelligence.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, what I'm looking at right now, and
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: we talked a little bit yesterday, like for example, there
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: was this report that came out about this death of
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: this woman. And then there previously, kind of like with COVID,
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: is that literally just weeks ago, August 24th and 27th,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: the director of the Anti-Plague Institute attended a Chinese conference-
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: like in August 24th and August 27th of the Fuyang
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: government release, where they were, you know, doing like a plague.
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: What is it?
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: It's like they were doing like a research exercise into
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: what would happen if there was an outbreak of plague.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: And he was in attendance.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: He was on the release list from China.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: So, you know, there is there is still a lot
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: of questions, I think.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: That kind of surround Fuyang. this entire thing literally five
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: weeks ago.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: The guy is there.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: And it was a scenario involving plague arriving from abroad,
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: a hypothetical emerging tick-borne disease, Chinese and Russian experts rehearsing
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: outbreak notifications, joint risk assessment, and coordinated control measure. 19
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: emergency teams were in 300 personnel in over 40 emergency vehicles. Now,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: to be fair, apparently this stuff is routine within the
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: public health community. And, you know, it would make sense
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: for a plague outbreak to get the plague guy over there.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: But you do have this incident breaking out literally just
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: weeks later. So, you know, you're hoping that it's not
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: some grand conspiracy or maybe that they knew that something
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: had already leaked and then they just happened to have
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: now announced it. But all of it, you know, I
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: just I want to keep people updated generally. And we're
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: trying to be responsible here. We're not saying, oh, it's
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: spreading everywhere. People are dying, etc. There's no indication of that.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: But reminder, this is in Siberia. I did make a
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: mistake yesterday. I confused the city of Irkutsk with Yakutsk,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: and I apologize for that. I got my Siberian geography
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: all messed up.
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: Actually, speaking of Irkutsk, this is for the Moscow Times,
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: so take it for what it's worth, but Irkutsk is
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: the highest-paying Russian region for foreign enlistment incentives, and so
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: that was also, they had a four-fold increase in the
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: bonus for every foreign citizen that recruiters sign up in Irkutsk.
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: So playing a non... insignificant role right now in recruiting
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: people to go serve in the war against Ukraine.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: It's a side tangent. It's actually very sad.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Apparently, the way that it works is that they just
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: shower the poorest regions of Russia.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: It's kind of like ours.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: You go to the poorest counties in America and you're like, hey,
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: you want to serve in the military?
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: You get $ 50, 000.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: They're like, hey, that's going to change my whole life.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: I get free healthcare. It's very much like that. And pensions,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: like pensions for dead Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: now account for a significant portion of cash transfer payments
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: and GDP in some of the poorest areas, apparently, in Russia.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: Tragic. Kind of the same story in every war. You know,
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: you have the poorest people.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: So, look, that's the full picture of what we know.
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: Russia's denying it. They say it's all rumors.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: We know currently that the lockdown and the quarantine stuff
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: is happening in Ukraine. Irkutsk and many of these hospitals.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: We know that many of these countries have shut down
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: the border or have increased border security with Russia and
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: are screening for sanitary measures for the people who are
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: coming in and out. And that the White House has
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: convened a principals meeting with senior health and senior national
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: security officials with a public pressure for transparency from Trump
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: and Marco Rubio on the Russian government.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: That's what we got now.
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: Well, and we are trying to be responsible. We would
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: be remiss if we didn't mention one.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: You did flag this one. One dot. I was going
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: to let you set it up.
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: In this kind of matrix. So if we put A7
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: up on the screen, like I said, we are trying
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: to be responsible here. We'll read it for the people
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: who are listening. But Taylor Swift did release the single
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: Patient Zero as same lettuce on X points out. Taylor
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: Swift released the single Patients' Era on September 25th, 2026.
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: That same day, a 28-year-old technician at the anti-flag research
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: institute reportedly broke a test tube containing live plague bacteria.
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: She was hospitalized days later with severe pneumonia and died
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: October 2nd, 2026. The same day, Patients' Era reached number
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: one on the UK official singles chart. We're not drawing
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: any conclusions. We are only giving you the information you need.
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: Is it a good song?
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: It is a good song. I'm not even like a
• 24:04
  Speaker 5: certified Swifty these days, but it's a pretty good one.
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: And the video is with Dakota Johnson. They debuted at
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: the VMAs. It's a pretty good video, too. I will
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: give it that.
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: I haven't listened yet. I haven't had as much time
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: of mine. but maybe I'll get around to it. Maybe
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: I'll listen to it a little bit later.
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: You just went and saw the Primetime movie last night.
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: You've got time to listen to Taylor on the way.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: There's a trade-off. You've only got a certain amount of time. Well,
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: we're not drawing any conclusions. You've got to go see,
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: by the way, Primetime, 10 out of 10. Loved it.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: And I'm not critical of TCAP or any of that either.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: As a movie, I thought it was great. All right,
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: let's get to Middle East. Turning now to the situation
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: in the Middle East, let's put B-0 up here on
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: the screen. So this is from Dropsite. Ansar Allah, a.k.a.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: the Houthis, appears to have reversed the Saudi-backed advance on
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Yemen's Red Sea coast within 24 hours. Its fighters have
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: posted videos from Dubab, a town in Taiz province, between
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the port of Mocha, which
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Ansar Allah took in mid-September. Pro-Saudi mercenary accounts said that
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: they had seized once again by the internationally recognized mercenaries
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: on Monday. Current research they cite notes this morning that
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: the coastal strip is flat open desert with heavy air cover.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Light armored vehicles can advance quickly, but the ground is
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: hard to hold. Mountains are just inland and overlook the plain.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Unless government forces push up into the mountains, Houthis, whose
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: strength has always been mountain warfare, can come down and
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: swiftly push them back out. Important to note that as
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: the U.S. government really is throwing everything but direct intervention
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: behind the Saudi government-backed takeover in Yemen.
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to Secretary Rubio.
• 25:46
  Speaker 7: Obviously, the Saudis have come under Houthi attack and see
• 25:51
  Speaker 7: the threat that that poses, and they have a right
• 25:52
  Speaker 7: to defend themselves. And obviously, the Yemeni forces are going
• 25:56
  Speaker 7: to try to retake territory that they were ousted from.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: So that's what's happening right now with Yemen. Meanwhile, though,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia and the U.S. embassy is preparing everybody for
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: a serious confrontation about what is to come. Let's put
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: B3 For example, we have not seen a warning like
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: this from the U.S. Embassy in quite some time. So
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: this is the official USTravel.gov warning. Saudi Arabia, due to
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: the ongoing security situation in Saudi and the potential for
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: aerial drone or missiles attacks, the United States mission strongly
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: encourages all citizens to remain vigilant and follow the guidance
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: of national alerts released by Saudi Arabia's civil defense. So
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: what they're warning there of aerial drone and missile attacks,
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: almost certainly on critical government infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. And
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: that includes the Saudi East-West pipeline, the Aramco facility where
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: they pump oil. And then they also include the Saudi
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: airport and obviously U.S.
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: Or I guess U.S. not currently under.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Attack, but the Saudi airport and all other critical infrastructure
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: within specifically for the oil industry inside of the country
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: after they really have unleashed air bombing campaign, refueling and
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: have been paying and really orchestrating a lot of this
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: retakeover of a lot of this territory inside Yemen.
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: How much longer do you expect the Trump administration and
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: Trump himself to resist intervention?
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: So if I had to bet, I don't think they're
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: going to do it. And I think the reason why
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: is that because this is from what I understand in
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: terms of what took place, because I asked around a
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: little bit, yesterday.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: I go, why did he call it off?
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: And what he couldn't get away from was that this
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: would distract from the Strait of Hormuz, is that because
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: of the finite amount of military resources, like we said yesterday,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: there's a third carrier on its way to the Middle East,
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: which is in addition to, I think, 3,000 to 10,000,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: something like that, more troops that are currently on their
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: way as well. Everything is in support of the Hormuz mission,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: which has been relatively successful. And what I mean by
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: that is oil is coming out. Now it's coming out
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: of $ 30 a day premium. And literally while we're doing
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: the show, 13th vessel was just struck in the last
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: eight days. And most damage that has been done in
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: addition to another tanker that was flagged by the IRGC
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: and told, if.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: You don't turn around right now, we are going to
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: sink you. And they did.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: They did turn around the second ship in the last
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: 48 hours. So When I say relatively successful, you've got
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: about 14, 15 million barrels a day that are moving
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: through in a $ 30 premium with the full force of
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: the U.S.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: Navy.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: Okay, so that's the Strait of Hormuz mission, which is
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: draining the U.S. Navy, costing literally hundreds of millions of dollars.
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: U.S.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Marines are on board ships. This is everything laser-focused. Everybody's
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: sent comm. Everybody's working around the clock. All right, so Trump,
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: on top of that, wants to add direct bombing intervention
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: into Yemen. Well, it's not just one bombing run, like
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: with Iran. Because what's going to happen? The Houthis are
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: going to shoot back. And they're going to say, all right,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: now the entire Red.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: Sea is closed. We've been there with the Houthis recently.
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: We've been there, right? And we lost. We had to
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: sign a ceasefire with them. Trump even said he's a
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: tough guy.
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: And that was before Iran, before our missile supply was depleted.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: So that's what I'm saying.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, I don't think that
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: he eventually will do a full-on, like I think they're
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: going to try and play it cute. where yesterday the
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: report was you got 200 American intel analysts who are
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: basically running this whole anti-Houthi campaign.
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: It's like with Ukraine.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: We give them the targeting data, we sell them the weapons,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: we give them the fuel, we give them the Humvees,
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: but we don't do it ourselves. That's as far, I think,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: as it'll now currently go. Not because he doesn't want to.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: He's humiliated by this entire thing. And MBS is lighting
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: him up every day, being like, I need your help,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: I need your help, I need your help. But the
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the other military planners
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: are basically like, sir, If you do this, it's going
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: to take away a lot from the Strait of Hormuz mission.
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: And MBS has Jared leveraged.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: Exactly. He's got Jared leveraged.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: But I just think the main reason why, and I
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: could be totally wrong, is at the very least, the
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: reason why he pulled back on that attack is because
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: it started to hit home of, now I'm going to
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: have to disperse parts of the Navy. They're going to
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: have to focus on the Red Sea again. I have
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: a nice little ceasefire that's working out, which he's praised previously.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: And it will draw down even more military interceptors, open
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: up a new front of the war, and we will
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: actually get less total oil out of the Middle East,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: and it will send.
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: The price of oil skyrocketing.
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: And then it's a midterm.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: And then it's a midterm problem. So that's how currently... Now,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: can I rule out that he will do it after
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: the midterms?
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: No, I can't.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Because this is intolerable for them to have so much
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: humiliation in not just Hormuz, but I mean, you have
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: your entire allied mission.
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: And, you know, the whole reason that the Saudis.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Spend all this money here and buy all of our
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: weapons and put all their money with Jared Kushner is
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: so they don't end up like this. And now, you know,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: this is existential for them in a lot of ways.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: Ryan was talking about that yesterday with MBS.
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: Well, MBS could have, I suppose, considered that when he
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: encouraged Trump, according to the Washington Post report, to go
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: to war with Iran.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Exactly. I mean, it's a complete strategic disaster, but The
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: problem is that Yemen in particular apparently has been like
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: his project from day one. It's one of the ways
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: that he was able to kind of assume so much
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: of his power in the security establishment and more. And
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: I do think that he will take the entire country
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: down with him rather than give up power, considering how
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: much he's internally maneuvered inside the country. Let's put B6
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: up here on the screen. It makes a lot of
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: these same points, but I actually thought it was a
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: really good story. They say, why Saudi Arabia's last war
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: in Yemen... turned into a quagmire. And so what they
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: point out, and as we've said here now, Saudi Arabia
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: has been.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: Bombing Yemen for 11 years. It started in March of 2015.
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: They launched the air campaign. They led, you know, the
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: UAE and all these other countries.
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: They're bombing them.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: Quote, the stated goal was to restore the Yemeni government
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: and drive the Houthis out of the capital. Quote, despite
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: years of fighting that didn't happen and a brutal war
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: caused a deep humanitarian crisis. And in 2022, a fragile
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: truce was agreed and most of the fighting stopped. But
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: then it all unravels in July of this year after
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing the airport in Sana'a,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: and the truce collapsed last month with a sweeping Houthi
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: military offensive that took over the entire Red Sea coast.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: And so they actually detail how Saudi Arabia, they thought
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: they were hot, you know, they bring together this 10-country coalition,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: they have the bombers, they have the Emiratis, and year
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: over year, they just keep getting drawn more and more
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: and more into this thing until it causes such a disaster.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: Hundreds of thousands of people die from famine, disease. The U.S.,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think it was like Matt Gaetz and
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Ro Khanna and Chris Murphy, all these guys come together,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: I think 2019, like, hey, we've got to stop funding
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: this entire thing.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, ALC.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: They're like, this is a humanitarian disaster. Dave Smith, this
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: is one of his real areas of expertise where he's
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: gone off. so well, I think, in terms of what
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: the United States, Saudi Arabia, and all that enabled in Yemen.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: And all of this, by the way, it all backfired
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: on America because, of course, this entire time there's Al-Qaeda.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: We're in this whole period where launching Navy SEAL operations,
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: guys are getting killed, drone strikes, and all of this.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: So the entire country, it's been decimated by this U.S.-backed offensive.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: And the quagmire and the conditions for why we're right
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: back to basically where we started, frankly, they're stronger than
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: with their strategic leverage and their military campaign has all
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: been enabled now by over a decade of U.S.
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: Policy.
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: Both Trump, Obama even, you know, Obama, Trump, Biden, everybody
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: kind of has some of this on their back.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: There's no question about that. It is just the last
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: 10 years of policy here, just a resounding disaster playing
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: out every single day. And Interestingly enough, that's why I
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: think this question about whether or not Trump resists the
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: pressure that he's certainly getting from MBS and MBS allies
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: right now, that is legitimately a big question because everything
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: you laid out makes sense on paper. Trump doesn't always
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: make sense off paper, especially when he's being pressured by
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: people like MBS with whom he's friendly. And I think
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: it makes complete and entire sense to say Jared Kushner
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: right now, who is negotiating in the Middle East on
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: our behalf and is leveraged over there makes decisions that
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: don't always make sense either.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think what it will, I think what you
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: will really see currently with Saudi, it's like I was saying,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: is they have to go all in. So they're at
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: this point, it's been 11 years, they thought it was done.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: Houthis have embarrassed them now repeatedly. They actually control more
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: of the country. Now they have leverage not just over
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, they have leverage over the entire global economy
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: in conjunction obviously with their alliance with Iran. Let's put
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: B7 up here just to show the position that the
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Saudis are now currently in. The CEO of Aramco yesterday
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: said that a global oil supply safety cushion is, quote,
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: alarmingly low.
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: He said as crude oil shipments through.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: The straight rebound, Persian oil producers are vying for market share.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: Aramco has raised its November crude prices for European customers,
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: while the discount on its Asian bound cargoes has widened
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: to the largest in the last six years. According to
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: the price schedule, the company has set the official selling
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: price for its crude oil destined for Asian buyers at
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: a $ 5 barrel below.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: The Dubai and Oman benchmark.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: Apparently the reason why this matters is that they are
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: seeking to expand its crude oil sales back to Asian
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: markets where all of these oil producers are kind of
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: in a race because that was such a major customer
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: base for them going into the Iran war. What they're
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: trying to do by discounting it is encouraging them to
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: buy because apparently right now, especially with refined products, is
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: that the Asians are all buying from the United States
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: and or elsewhere. Obviously, they're also drawing down the Strategic
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: Petroleum Reserve. But the Aramco CEO said that you have
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: an alarmingly low stockpile in the actual global supply. At
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: the same time, they have market problems, so they have
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: to take more of a bath. What they're basically in
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: a position now is they can't have the current situation,
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: which we have literally right now, where, as you can see,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: you have the Houthi campaign, you have the retaking of territory,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: they're now in a military quagmire, and like I said,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: as we're speaking.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: Maybe we can even add some of this later on, but.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: While we were doing this show, you were having reports
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: right now that are coming out of these 13 vessels
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: struck by Iran in the last eight days, which is
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: the voluntary reporting, which means that there are a lot
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: more attacks that may have actually come through. And not
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: only have they been struck, but you've even seen the
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: additional tanker come out and say that, yeah, we came
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: out in the last 48 hours because of the oncoming fire,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: have basically said, nope, we're not going to deal with this.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: So you're going to have actually less oil from the
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Iranian side that's pressure along with the Houthis that are
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: pressuring them. And so I think those two things together
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: that really puts them in a bad situation, in a
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: bind where they're just going to have to go even
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: more all in.
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: That's the dangerous part.
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: Well, that also makes the politics interesting for Trump, too,
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: ahead of the midterms. If he's being squeezed in both directions,
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: what does he do?
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Well, the price of oil, something I mentioned yesterday is
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: that if you take a look at the price of
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: bread crude today, it's actually down to $ 98 a barrel. Now,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: you would say, oh, well, that means that we're winning
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: in Iran. Well, actually, it's because of the global strategic
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: petroleum reserve release that was approved by the G7. And
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: so that was done strategically by the Trump administration because
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: the Trump administration told them, hey, diesel export ban or
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: you guys release your SPR. So the Europeans, the Japanese,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: everybody had to release all this oil, which they didn't
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: want to because they're all heading into winter on when
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: they might need their supply. But eventually he basically bent
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: them over and he's like, you're going to have to
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: do it.
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: You don't have a choice.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: So they released without, now they have very little slack.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: in their own system if this situation continues, which we
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: all know that it will. But that actually puts... Basically,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: he's just kicking the can down the road. You have
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: cheaper oil right now. You keep gas around $ 4. 20 a
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: gallon and diesel around like $ 6. 20, something like that, going
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: into the election. And then after that, you know, it's colder.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: If Europeans don't have heating, like, not his problem.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: Or they have to pay.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: $ 200, $ 300, or something like that insane per barrel before
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: we even get to refined products.
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: But overall, that's what the picture looks like. right now.
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: Extremely precarious.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Not good.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: So speaking of all those midterms, let's get to Logan Phillips.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: Joining us now is our great friend Logan Phillips of
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: Race to the White House. He's joining us for his
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: weekly segment and our midterm breakdown. It's good to see you, Logan.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: How are you, man?
• 39:04
  Speaker 6: I'm doing great. Great to see you, Sagar. And Emily, too.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: Always good to see you, my friend.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: So we're going to start off with some of the
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: recent Trump comments. Here he was yesterday. You can decide
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: for yourself. He is saying that high gas prices are
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: a small price to play. You can also look at
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: it as him saying Iran nuking San Diego and Los
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: Angeles would be a small price to play.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: You decide. Let's take a listen.
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: And again, remember, with the word just artificial, it's a
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: little bit high. It's a small price to pay for
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: keeping the world safe, keeping our country safe. They could
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: take out a city. Let them take out Los Angeles.
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: Let them take out San Diego. It's essentially almost over
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: with and they might keep going a little long. You know,
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: they always say they have a big threshold for pain.
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: They need it. Let me tell you, they need it,
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: but it's going to end very soon and it'll end
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: one way or the other. And your gas and your
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: gasoline and all of the things.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: So Logan, I can't decide what's actually worse electorally, uh,
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: whether LA or San Diego is a fine to give
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: up in a small price or saying, high gas prices
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: or a small price to pay.
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: Both seem quite bad whenever.
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: I take a look at it.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: You tell me.
• 40:23
  Speaker 6: Well, we do have an us versus them moment in
• 40:25
  Speaker 6: our politics, but I don't think it goes so far
• 40:27
  Speaker 6: that different parts of the country are rooting for each
• 40:29
  Speaker 6: other to get newt.
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: Right, right.
• 40:31
  Speaker 6: I can't imagine that Kevin Kiley, Republican turned independent, is
• 40:34
  Speaker 6: delighted by those comments running out in the ad starts
• 40:36
  Speaker 6: because San Diego.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and apparently, yeah, I think the mayor of San
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: Diego spoke out already against it. You've got Gavin Newsom
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: and others, you know, who are posting this clip. But
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: I just couldn't, what I couldn't get away from was
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: either interpretation. I mean, to say small price to pay
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: for $ 4 gasoline for over six months just appears to
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: be so remotely out of touch with a war that
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: the vast majority of the people don't support.
• 41:04
  Speaker 6: Yeah, well, this is the biggest problem for Donald Trump, right?
• 41:06
  Speaker 6: To some degree, the armor is off for the first
• 41:08
  Speaker 6: time in his political career. Voters have always given Donald
• 41:11
  Speaker 6: Trump the benefit of the doubt, the people that like him.
• 41:13
  Speaker 6: And now they don't think a lot of them, not
• 41:15
  Speaker 6: all of them, not even most of them, but a
• 41:17
  Speaker 6: significant minority think that he no longer cares about them
• 41:19
  Speaker 6: or is fighting for them. And it's stuff like this.
• 41:22
  Speaker 6: And it's the focus on the ballroom and all these
• 41:24
  Speaker 6: other stuff that they can not only are they upset
• 41:28
  Speaker 6: about the high gas prices, but they can tie it
• 41:29
  Speaker 6: directly to his actions. And he consistently doesn't seem to care.
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: See, this is an interesting tension in Trump's own approach here,
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: because we're going to roll this next clip. He understands
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: that there's a transactionality when people say, I'm going to
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: go vote for someone to make my life better. Here's
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: what he said once again about $ 5, 000 payments, C1.
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: Our country is doing so well under Republican leadership that
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: only I can make you this promise. If Republicans win
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: the House of Representatives and the Senate. I'm going to
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: give all adult citizens in the United States of America $ 5, 000.
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: And Republicans can do it and Democrats can't because we're
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: taking in massive amounts of money through tariffs and record-setting
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: economic success.
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: We haven't talked to you about this yet.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: What do you think?
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: How will this work?
• 42:24
  Speaker 6: I don't think voters are going to buy it. And,
• 42:26
  Speaker 6: you know, I listen to a lot of focus groups, right?
• 42:28
  Speaker 6: And I heard this one voter say, who was a
• 42:31
  Speaker 6: Trump Republican or a Trump voter, I should say, that
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: it sounded a little bit like when you're watching the
• 42:37
  Speaker 6: elementary school elections and people are promising that if they win,
• 42:41
  Speaker 6: they'll give you a free slide, free candy every day.
• 42:44
  Speaker 6: People just don't buy it. And if, you know, he
• 42:46
  Speaker 6: would do it now if that's really what he wanted
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: to do. And I think it also goes back to
• 42:50
  Speaker 6: the caring questions of this was to help the American people.
• 42:53
  Speaker 6: It doesn't have to be tied to an electoral outcome.
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: Right, right. That's actually a very good point.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: There is obviously, I mean, it's obviously true, which is like, look,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: you control Congress and the Senate. You can literally do
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: it right now if you want. He's like, oh, well,
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: we'll do it after the election. I mean, it's just
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: so naked in the way that it is coming out.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: Let's put C2 up here on the screen. You very
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: rarely see this of Trump admitting defeat.
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: And I will say, I mean, it's been shocking, actually,
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: to see, to watch it on the NFL.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: And then this random Trump ad comes up. You're like,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: how is this possible? Because it says paid for by U.S.
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: Government.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: And by the way, in the ad, he says, I'm
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: going to stop warmongers. Anyway, yesterday, he goes, the radical
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: left is upset with the fact that I am taking ads,
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: which I consider to be positive promotion for a great
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: USA and paying for them with USA money.
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: This is a rather standard thing to do.
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: But rather than doing that, although nothing will make them happy,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: I have decided to do the patriotic ads and pay
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: for them myself with money that I have raised for
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: MAGA Inc. Apparently, it's cost some $ 5. 6 million so far,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: which came somehow from the Customs and Border Patrol budget. Logan,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: you never see Trump actually come out and be like, OK, fine,
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: you know, trying to spin defeat. But I mean, that's
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: a pretty that's a pretty big pullback for him to
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: stop using taxpayer funded ads.
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: What do you make of that?
• 44:09
  Speaker 6: I think it's one of two things. Usually the thing
• 44:11
  Speaker 6: that slows Trump down is when Republicans enlarge in the
• 44:15
  Speaker 6: Senate or House, usually privately these days, push back against him.
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: So it's either that or maybe it's that in conjunction
• 44:21
  Speaker 6: with the fact that I think these ads were working
• 44:23
  Speaker 6: against him specifically because of what it said at the bottom.
• 44:26
  Speaker 6: It's an extremely jarring thing to say. It's not something
• 44:28
  Speaker 6: we're at all used to, so it obviously stands out.
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: But also, I think the content, too, might be working
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: against him because he's saying a lot of things that
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: people are specifically mad at him for not doing.
• 44:37
  Speaker 6: Yes, that's a very good point.
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: It calls attention to a lot of his electoral flaws
• 44:41
  Speaker 5: right now.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: He's like, I'm going to drive the warmongers out of Washington.
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: You're like, what?
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: We're literally in the middle of Iran war, man. You're
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: going to drive yourself out of Washington? How's that going
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: to work?
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: It calls attention to what's obviously a vulnerability.
• 44:52
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think so, too. But I just have to
• 44:56
  Speaker 6: imagine that Trump could still run those ads separately. I
• 45:01
  Speaker 6: think his abandonment on this is it's just something that
• 45:05
  Speaker 6: people do not want their tax dollars to be used for.
• 45:08
  Speaker 6: I think if you're talking to genuinely over 90 percent
• 45:10
  Speaker 6: of Americans, no matter how dyed in the wool of
• 45:14
  Speaker 6: a Democrat or Republican you are. You don't want your
• 45:17
  Speaker 6: tax dollars going to pay for their ads.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: Yes, I think that's a very, very good point.
• 45:20
  Speaker 5: And this is basically what Kirsten Solstice Anderson, and I'm
• 45:23
  Speaker 5: curious to ask you this, said she was picking up
• 45:25
  Speaker 5: on in the New York Times. She's right of center
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: pollster and said one of the things she's been picking
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: up on in focus groups and polling is basically that
• 45:31
  Speaker 5: when people started to get pissed about the ballroom and
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: about corruption and meme coins... So when the economy got
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: bad and so Trump corruption that was kind of naked
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: and a cheeky joke that he would make sometimes himself
• 45:44
  Speaker 5: was tolerable to people until they started to feel like
• 45:48
  Speaker 5: the economy was steadily getting worse. Gas prices were like
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: you can't take these stupid meme coins when gas is
• 45:53
  Speaker 5: over four dollars a gallon.
• 45:54
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's very true. That's something that the
• 45:55
  Speaker 6: Obama administration had so much. focus on. They didn't even
• 45:59
  Speaker 6: redecorate the Oval Office when he first took over because
• 46:01
  Speaker 6: they were worried that it would seem as excessive.
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: After the recession.
• 46:04
  Speaker 6: But I also think that the other part here, and
• 46:06
  Speaker 6: sorry if this is a little repetitive, but it's that
• 46:08
  Speaker 6: they don't think he cares. And if they, Republicans, and
• 46:13
  Speaker 6: I think to some degree voters in 2020, very close election,
• 46:16
  Speaker 6: they gave Trump some room because it wasn't his fault.
• 46:21
  Speaker 6: And This time, the price is bigger than normal, honestly,
• 46:25
  Speaker 6: I think, for a president, which is the opposite of
• 46:26
  Speaker 6: how everything works for Donald Trump normally. Normally, the price
• 46:29
  Speaker 6: is so much smaller for the same thing because they
• 46:32
  Speaker 6: think he directly caused it.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: Yes. I mean, he did literally directly cause it.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: He did. Let's get to some of the state-by-state stuff,
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: and we can check it against your model. Let's put
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: C3 up here, up on the screen. I was kind of,
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: kind of came out of nowhere, but actually now fits
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: with some more recent actions by the GOP. So yesterday,
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: Trump released this long screed against Annie Andrews, who is
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: running against Darlene Graham in South Carolina. He says, Annie
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: Tranny Andrews is running against our wonderful friend Darlene Graham.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: For years, my dear friend Lindsey would say, Darlene is
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: the finest, most reliable, and one of the smartest people
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: I've ever known. He would then always add, also the
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: most loyal.
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: Oftentimes, I would be upset with Lindsey.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: In any event, Darlene is a high-quality person, maybe the highest,
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: and Annie Tranny is not. in particular as it pertains
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: to representing the values of the great people of South Carolina.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: She is in favor of transgender for everyone, open borders,
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: defund the police, high taxes. In other words, is against
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: our great Second Amendment. So what's crazy about this is
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: that it's South Carolina. Lindsey Graham won it by 17 points,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: something like that. And I will say, you know, we
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: were bombarded with a lot of similar stuff at that time. oh,
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: Jamie Harrison, he's got a shot. He raises $ 100 million.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: He gets blown out in the exact same margin.
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: Trump won by 18%. Oh, sorry. Trump won by 18%.
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: No, no, no.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: You said it right. Okay.
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: So Trump won the state by 18%. But Logan, I mean,
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: his actions here, in addition to some new reporting actually
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: that just came out, they're reporting the Senate GOP is
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: actually sending $ 5 million to shore up Darlene Graham in
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: South Carolina. So if I put those two things together,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: she made a phone call and she said, I'm in
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: serious trouble here.
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: So what does that tell you?
• 48:19
  Speaker 6: It tells us that this is a very different election
• 48:21
  Speaker 6: than 2018, which was one of Democrats' best years in
• 48:24
  Speaker 6: the last 40 years. But they'd lost a seat in
• 48:27
  Speaker 6: the Senate. And that was because it didn't carry over
• 48:31
  Speaker 6: to red states. It was disproportionately voters in a lot
• 48:35
  Speaker 6: of swing states and blue states. Pennsylvania. Exactly. All these
• 48:38
  Speaker 6: gains in the suburbs, especially with white college-educated voters. Georgia.
• 48:41
  Speaker 6: Now you've got two types, right, that they're making the
• 48:42
  Speaker 6: biggest gains with. It's Latinos in terms of geography where
• 48:45
  Speaker 6: voters are concentrated. And then the second is they're getting
• 48:48
  Speaker 6: a lot in these rural areas with white voters without
• 48:51
  Speaker 6: a college degree that Republicans would just completely feast on
• 48:54
  Speaker 6: in terms of their margins. Those margins are getting a
• 48:56
  Speaker 6: lot smaller. And so that's why we're talking about states
• 48:59
  Speaker 6: like South Carolina and Kansas and Nebraska, which we normally– well,
• 49:03
  Speaker 6: Nebraska seems to be a Dan Osborne thing, but those
• 49:05
  Speaker 6: other ones– He's still probably going to win that race,
• 49:10
  Speaker 6: or Republicans are probably still going to win that race,
• 49:12
  Speaker 6: but there's a chance they don't.
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: It's part of a trend, and let me get your
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: take on this, Logan. So we have this new let's
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: put C7 up on the screen. So this is Senate
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: Leadership Fund saying they're going to dump a bunch of money,
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: $ 14 million in Kansas, in Arizona. Kansas. Let me repeat that,
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: in Kansas. And we also have indications, C5, we can
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: also put up on the screen here. This is Republicans
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: pull the plug on two swing states as GOP's midterm
• 49:39
  Speaker 5: prospects become increasingly grim. It's the Daily Caller report that
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: Republicans are not going to spend in North Carolina and Georgia.
• 49:47
  Speaker 5: Let's listen here to C4. This is the chairman of
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: the RNC being asked about North Carolina and Michael Whatley,
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: whether or not they're just giving up on Whatley again
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: in North Carolina. Let's roll the clip.
• 49:58
  Speaker 8: Real quick, I do want to get your take on
• 50:01
  Speaker 8: this reporting about the fact that the money has been
• 50:03
  Speaker 8: shifting away from North Carolina. This specifically seems to be
• 50:06
  Speaker 8: the Michael Watley race and going over to Kansas.
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: Your take on that?
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, we love Senator Ricketts and I love my predecessor,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Michael Wiley. He still has a path. We're helping him
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: in other ways. But listen, at the end of the day,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: we have 29 days to go as a party. And,
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: you know, as the collective, we have to make decisions.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: And where where can we cobble together the seats that
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: we need while he's still in the mix? But at
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, we have to maintain the majority,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: because if we don't, the Democrats are going to fundamentally
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: change this country. We have to win. We have no
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: other option. We're going to make sure we make the
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: best spending decisions. And at the end of the day,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: we have the candidates that we asked for, that we recruited.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: We have the resources we need. We're pounding away in
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: all these districts. And then we have our secret weapon
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: of President Trump.
• 50:52
  Speaker 5: Okay, so in case everybody missed it, what he said
• 50:53
  Speaker 5: is Michael Watley, quote, still has a path. We are
• 50:56
  Speaker 5: talking about North Carolina. You have the chairman of the
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: RNC saying the Republican candidate, quote, still has a path there. Logan,
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: are Republicans here accurately reading the tea leaves that they
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: should be reallocating resources because some of these races are
• 51:08
  Speaker 5: basically over?
• 51:09
  Speaker 6: They should have done this yesterday and honestly far beyond yesterday.
• 51:11
  Speaker 6: This was a race that I don't think they were
• 51:13
  Speaker 6: going to win even in right down.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: The middle here.
• 51:15
  Speaker 6: I don't think they're going to win it. I think
• 51:16
  Speaker 6: in a red wave, this would be a tough race
• 51:18
  Speaker 6: to win specifically North Carolina because Cooper is... the best
• 51:23
  Speaker 6: Democrat since this millennium has started. He has won every
• 51:27
  Speaker 6: single presidential year from 2000 to 2020 because he's always
• 51:33
  Speaker 6: running on the same ticket in the presidential year, unlike
• 51:36
  Speaker 6: most states when they have the governor race. And so
• 51:38
  Speaker 6: he's won so many times when it's really tough. Same
• 51:40
  Speaker 6: thing as Attorney General, by the way. That's why I'm
• 51:42
  Speaker 6: going back that far. So he's running against a guy
• 51:45
  Speaker 6: that's a first-time candidate in Michael Wiley, who is the
• 51:48
  Speaker 6: former chair of the RNC. And That is not exactly
• 51:52
  Speaker 6: the same type of position in terms of what you
• 51:55
  Speaker 6: say and how you conduct yourself as running for the Senate,
• 51:57
  Speaker 6: because you're the cheerleader of the Republican Party. You have
• 52:00
  Speaker 6: so many things tying you to the president on positions
• 52:04
  Speaker 6: that you normally wouldn't defend. And he didn't make that adjustment.
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 52:07
  Speaker 6: I think the job you hold before you run for
• 52:09
  Speaker 6: office can mean a lot. I saw that with Nikki
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: Haley that she sounded a little too much like a U.N.
• 52:13
  Speaker 6: ambassador early on. And so like. He kept offending Trump
• 52:17
  Speaker 6: on things that he really shouldn't be saying, like saying
• 52:20
  Speaker 6: the moment inflation was now lower than Biden in December,
• 52:24
  Speaker 6: where it had a moment in the sun, he was
• 52:26
  Speaker 6: talking about how prices have actually dropped dramatically. And nobody's, well,
• 52:30
  Speaker 6: I don't remember, he didn't say nobody's worried about gas prices,
• 52:32
  Speaker 6: but he said something like that. That is featured in
• 52:33
  Speaker 6: every single Cooper attack ad since then. And so this
• 52:37
  Speaker 6: has really set him up for failure. So I think
• 52:39
  Speaker 6: the contrast here is so big that Cooper himself has
• 52:41
  Speaker 6: won this race. Candidate quality still matters so much at
• 52:44
  Speaker 6: a time when people don't like both parties. We're seeing
• 52:46
  Speaker 6: that in Maine. Maybe a little in Texas. We're seeing
• 52:51
  Speaker 6: that in Texas.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Let's put, because I want to get your take on
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: these latest New York Times polls. C6, we can put
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: it up here on the screen. Here you have Alaska.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: They have it at Peltola, which is crazy. I mean,
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: a total flip there.
• 53:04
  Speaker 5: She got that bump.
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: Alaska.
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: She got that leak bump.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: Texas, Tallarico at plus five. Ohio, Brown, plus three. Michigan,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: El Sayed, five. Kansas tied. Iowa, Hinson won. Maine, Collins 3.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: To me, the shocking ones in there is Collins plus
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: 3 and Peltola plus 7. Everything else seems kind of
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: within what we had learned. I guess Kansas as well
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: remains shocking. Give us your take here in terms of
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: what you see. I know there's some numerous ones this
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: morning which actually show Troy Jackson winning.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: What do you think about these various?
• 53:39
  Speaker 6: I think Susan Collins has run a really impressive race.
• 53:41
  Speaker 6: This was a toss-up race when the cycle was about
• 53:44
  Speaker 6: three or four points more Republican-friendly than it is right now,
• 53:47
  Speaker 6: and her position has strengthened, I would argue, slightly.
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: Interesting.
• 53:50
  Speaker 6: So I think she's an underdog, but absolutely she can win.
• 53:53
  Speaker 6: And the thing that she's doing, and Ashley Henson is doing,
• 53:55
  Speaker 6: who seems to be doing a little better in the
• 53:56
  Speaker 6: last few weeks, maybe, it's only a small change in
• 53:59
  Speaker 6: the polls, is they're not, they haven't been saying this
• 54:03
  Speaker 6: entire cycle that they're with Trump all the way, and
• 54:05
  Speaker 6: been focused on all these transgender-related attacks, which if your
• 54:08
  Speaker 6: gas prices are high, who really cares? I think that's
• 54:10
  Speaker 6: why something candidates are starting to pull back because it's
• 54:13
  Speaker 6: just not relevant to people's day-to-day life. And so she,
• 54:17
  Speaker 6: you know, Henson actually has a pretty conservative voting record,
• 54:20
  Speaker 6: but she's kind of running on a Susan Collins-type campaign
• 54:23
  Speaker 6: except being more pro-Trump and talking all the time about
• 54:26
  Speaker 6: how she's going to work with Democrats and talking about
• 54:29
  Speaker 6: people's actually day-to-day concerns. That's what Catherine Cortez Masto did
• 54:32
  Speaker 6: in Nevada.
• 54:33
  Speaker 5: Michelle Tafoya as well doing that in Minnesota.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: Exactly.
• 54:35
  Speaker 6: And she's running much more competitively. Very much so. Now,
• 54:38
  Speaker 6: I have to imagine the weight of Minnesota will win
• 54:40
  Speaker 6: out there, but We don't have that much high-quality polling,
• 54:42
  Speaker 6: but all of it's showing it close. All of it's
• 54:44
  Speaker 6: showing it close.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: It's really crazy. I mean, the regional dynamics here are fascinating. So,
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: for example, how is it that Sherrod Brown can be
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: up by three, but Tallarico up by five? I mean, Ohio,
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: 10 times more of a competitive state, in my view.
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: And even if you were to say candidate.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Quality, I would put Brown way ahead of Tallarico.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: But in Ohio specifically, I do want to ask you
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: here about the gubernatorial race. There was a report yesterday,
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: let's put C8 up here, on the screen that Vivek
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: Ramaswamy has now loaned another $ 5 million to his bid
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: for governor, and he has now loaned his campaign over
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: $ 36 million in this campaign against Amy Acton, which I
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: believe the Times called the single most nasty election at
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: the statewide level. Amy Acton is having a field day
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: with Vivek's December 2024 screed about how white people don't
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: work hard enough.
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: Or something like that.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: But what have you seen when it comes to Ohio?
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: Because plus three for Brown, that's a lot lower than I.
• 55:47
  Speaker 6: Would have expected. Well, on average, he does have a
• 55:49
  Speaker 6: little bit of a bigger lead than Tallarico. Tallarico's leading
• 55:52
  Speaker 6: by like four, Brown's leading by like five. But I
• 55:54
  Speaker 6: think the big difference is John Husted, his voting record
• 55:57
  Speaker 6: has been with Trump all the time, and that's hurting
• 55:59
  Speaker 6: him on the Medicaid cuts, which Brown is using against him.
• 56:01
  Speaker 6: But Republicans in Ohio... traditionally win by a lot when
• 56:06
  Speaker 6: they run people that sound more moderate and normal. John Kasich,
• 56:14
  Speaker 6: Rob Portman. And then when you have someone that sounds
• 56:17
  Speaker 6: more like JD Vance or to a greater degree, Bernie Moreno,
• 56:22
  Speaker 6: then it's like a two or three point win. And that,
• 56:23
  Speaker 6: in a big enough cycle, can be a Dem win,
• 56:25
  Speaker 6: especially when you have Sherrod Brown. So I think that
• 56:28
  Speaker 6: is part of the reason why PACs, yeah, candidate quality matters,
• 56:31
  Speaker 6: and Brown's a great candidate, But Paxton is like uniquely
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: terrible and Republicans are doing uniquely badly with Latino voters.
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: And so that puts Texas in place where you can
• 56:42
  Speaker 6: win it, where Ohio, the coalitions aren't shifting as dramatically,
• 56:46
  Speaker 6: even if on paper this is an easier state. But
• 56:48
  Speaker 6: the gap between Texas and Ohio has shrunk a lot
• 56:51
  Speaker 6: in the last 20 years because they're both moving in
• 56:52
  Speaker 6: different directions.
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: And quickly, what is your take on the Kansas numbers?
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: We just put up that Senate Leadership Fund is pouring
• 56:59
  Speaker 5: $ 14 million into that. It's starting to get really close
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: in Kansas. Very uncomfortable for Roger Marshall.
• 57:06
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think this kind of doubles down on this
• 57:08
  Speaker 6: political article that came out recently that they were doing
• 57:11
  Speaker 6: this really deep study of tons of voters saying, like,
• 57:14
  Speaker 6: what type of traits in a candidate could make you
• 57:16
  Speaker 6: potentially vote for them if you only knew, like, a
• 57:17
  Speaker 6: handful of things? Religious Democrats do really well. We are
• 57:21
  Speaker 6: seeing that in Texas. And, you know, Adam Hamilton leads
• 57:25
  Speaker 6: the biggest Methodist church in the country. I think it's Methodist, right?
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: And he- I think it might be non-denominational, but I'll check.
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: He's a big church.
• 57:34
  Speaker 6: They've done tons of charity drives to help kids that
• 57:37
  Speaker 6: don't have beds or school books or anything along those lines.
• 57:41
  Speaker 5: Oh, you're at United Methodist.
• 57:42
  Speaker 6: Yeah, and so- there's something that I think that is
• 57:47
  Speaker 6: kind of missing from Christianity and politics in that the
• 57:50
  Speaker 6: whole empathy and help the poor part, which is like
• 57:52
  Speaker 6: a central part of the religion has been left out.
• 57:56
  Speaker 6: And it's a huge opportunity for Democrats who have shied
• 57:58
  Speaker 6: away from religion. But if they're choosing the right candidates,
• 58:02
  Speaker 6: like Hamilton, it's a.
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: Red state thing.
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: It's a red state thing that is, is just been
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: missing because red states just don't elect Democrats statewide level. But,
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: It's literally the only way you could ever get elected.
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: It is fascinating.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think Roger Marshall just pulled an ad
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: at the request of a church for something about there
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: was some scandal, like a sex abuse scandal, but it
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: featured some members of the church.
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: The members of the church were like, hey, you need
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: to pull this down. He did pull it down.
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, none of these are inspiring in terms of
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: their behavior. Last thing I did want to ask you
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: about this Marist poll came out this morning. They actually
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: have Brown by plus eight, Tallarico plus six. I keep
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: trying to steel man this. So yesterday we put up
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: a Gerduski analysis, which I thought was important, where he's like, look,
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying this is impossible, but to take a
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: state where a president win by double digits and to
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: flip has only happened eight times in the last 25 years.
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: It just doesn't happen that often.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: So to me, I think the big question is this
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: may be an accurate reflection of the race today. But
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: as we have seen in many races, Republicans, you know,
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: they may not be enthused to vote about Donald Trump,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: but that doesn't mean they're going to be willing to
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: just turn over Democratic control. They may just come out
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: to vote just to be like, look, we cannot let
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: this happen. Do you think there's some likelihood of that,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: like a Republican motivation to it? At the very least,
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: they look, I'm fed up with Trump, but we cannot
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: be having a statewide six-year senator, you know, to be
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: from the opposite party who we vehemently disagree with.
• 59:24
  Speaker 6: Well, lucky for me that you didn't ask me this
• 59:25
  Speaker 6: question on September 1st, because the answer would have been yes.
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 59:28
  Speaker 6: I'm not so sure now because it hasn't happened. I
• 59:30
  Speaker 6: thought that's what was going to happen in September in
• 59:31
  Speaker 6: places like Kansas.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: I really did.
• 59:33
  Speaker 6: I didn't necessarily think in Texas because Pakistan is kind
• 59:35
  Speaker 6: of different. But surprisingly, we're not seeing the evidence of that.
• 59:39
  Speaker 6: It's getting worse.
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 59:41
  Speaker 6: So that's what happened in 2018.
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: Yes, exactly. That's the migrant, the caravan situation and the Kavanaugh.
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: People were like, all right, look.
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: Maybe fed up with Trump, Charlottesville, I'm pissed off, pissed
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: off about the tax bill, but we can't let this
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: shit happen.
• 59:55
  Speaker 6: There's so many differences between those two years, and the
• 59:56
  Speaker 6: eight times in 25 years makes me think it's a
• 59:58
  Speaker 6: lot more likely, actually, than without that information, because Democrats'
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 6: lead in the national ballot would be the biggest win
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 6: they've had, and any party's had in a midterm since
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 6: 40 years ago, so in 1986. So, this would be
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 6: the year that those types of things happen. Now, do
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 6: I think those numbers you just gave me for Marist
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 6: that they're all going to be right?
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 5: No.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 6: But Marist is one of the best pollsters in the country.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 6: And I remember them showing Fetterman plus five or six
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 6: and everyone laughing them off. And they were right about
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 6: almost everything in 22. So they could be. That's like
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 6: the high end for Dems. That's not what I'd expect
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 6: given their outliers, but I'm not counting them out.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: That's a very good point actually on Marist.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: If we take some of their midterm stuff going back,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: it was one of the very few that actually called
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: it um all right logan anything else uh that you're
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: watching uh some bigger trends or i guess just generally
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: you seem to buy not just been polls but fundamentals
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: focus groups and everything you do think kansas these states
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: actually are in play iowa etc and i think that's
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: i mean again psychologically for me it's just very hard
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: to wrap my head around it would break the paradigm
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: of what i know but i guess it's all not
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: all that unique if you read a book.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: Just states can change quite a lot in just a 15,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: 20-year period.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 6: Well, I think there's a real possibility it's in play.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 6: I think it'll certainly be more competitive than normal. I
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 6: would say two things. One, Kansas has been moving like
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 6: this towards Democrats cycle after cycle at a consistent level.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 6: It is still clearly a red state, but this is
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 6: way more competitive than it used to be. So you
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 6: can talk about the stats about how Kansas is, has
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 6: an elected Democrat, what, since the 1930s? Yeah. But this
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 6: is not the same Kansas as much as it's not
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 6: the same Texas, nor is it the same Ohio that
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 6: it was in 2008. Good point.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: Demographic change and, you know, you've got the tariff situation,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: high concentration of a certain economy, diesel is destroying them,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: Nebraska and all.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: So it's like highly concentrated.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: Some of their policies like tariff and Iran seem like
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: uniquely designed to just destroy chances in the Midwest, but
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: then keep things, let's say maybe a lot more competitive
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: or less damaging in some of these other more economically
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: dynamic states.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 6: Like blue states where they're overperforming?
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, right. I mean, that's why it's fascinating.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 5: Kansas voted down that abortion referendum in 2020, remember?
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: I do remember that.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 6: Yeah, they elected a Democrat governor twice. Now I know
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 6: that's a different type of race.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 6: But the thing I did not see coming at all
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 6: on any planet was that the Senate race was going
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 6: to look way more competitive than the governor race. The
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 6: governor race isn't over. Democrats have a shot there, but
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 6: there's like a two or three point gap in the
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 6: polls there.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 5: Wow. That is interesting. All right.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: Keep us updated, man. See you next week. Thank you.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: All right, guys.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 6: Great to be on. Thank you.