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NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Playoffs Best Bets Saturday 1/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: slump continuing.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Man with Wickens, the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: my Bruins hat man. I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins. March eight, Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what datas anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Men, Back with you after the worst thing that I
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you with toad Stool Sports. It
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: is Saturday, January tenth. Thanks to everybody who hung out
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: for the grueling edition of the College Basketball Show last night.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: I gave out nine college basketball.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Plays for today. It's a huge board.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I was not as selective as I thought I was
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: gonna be, but I don't know.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: We'll see how it works out.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: I know it's high volume, so there is some risk
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: if it goes really hay why, which has happened before,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: but hopefully we get it done. I'm gonna add two
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: more plays on this show. I'm skipping NBA. I have
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: one hockey play, even though it's a big hockey board,
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: I don't love it, and I have well, I have
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: a couple other opinions in hockey that I'll mention, and
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: then I do have an.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: NFL play as well.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: My favorite play of the NFL Wildcard Round is today,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: So that's gonna be a play as well. You probably
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: already know what it is knowing me, so that's what
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: we're gonna do. Mister Penzy, what's up. Thanks for hanging
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: out the toad toad I like it all right. There
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: we go, toad toadstool Charles.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: What's up?
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. We had a winning day on
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: the show yesterday three and one. It probably should have
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: been four and o. Mount Saint Mary's got the job done.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: It was a close game in the Mount Saint Mary's one.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: But whether you went money line pick them whatever, or
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: you laid a small favorite price with them, they won
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: in every way. I think they won by about seven,
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: but whatever, it was a close game down the stretch man.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: I think they probably got some intentional fouls at the
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: end that pushed.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: The lead a little bit, but they got the job done.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: USC was basically I think it was a wire to
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: wire cover for USC, if I'm not mistaken. I was
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: complaining about it because it went into overtime and USC
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: was obviously the right side. They were winning the game
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: outright for a lot of the game, including the stretch run.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: They had the lead really late in the game, and
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: then in the final minute or so, I think they
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: were down by one point, I'm like, oh God, here
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: we go. It winds up going into overtime, which is
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: where underdogs and unders go to die, and I'm.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Like, oh God, this is bad.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: But I believe they still won the game outright, So
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: we got the win with USC anyway still outright win
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: as well. Again, I always recommend when you have an underdog,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: sprinkle on the money line, man, especially a dog of
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: four points that's a close line, and especially that game,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: because I thought the line was just off, Like I thought,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: there was definitely value on USC decent chance from the
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: win out right, there better team that one. Yeah, you
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: definitely should be putting like ten percent of that one
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: on the money line. And then we did win on
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: the Atlanta Hawks as well. They had a good late
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: portion of the game and they pulled away in that game.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: That was an easy win as well.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: And then the.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Houston Rockets were the assholes of the night, the night's
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: biggest losers, as they took a while to get it going,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: but then they had a huge lead in the fourth quarter.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: I think they were up thirteen in the middle of
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, so they have no excuse for not
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: putting that game away. I don't know what they did
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: in that game. They actually wound up losing the game,
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure outright, I don't know what the fuck
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: is going on with the Houston Rockets, but whatever, we'll
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: move on today. College of Basketball Analysis was all in
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: that huge show from last night. I'm getting it up
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: on my Instagram right now as well. I think I've
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: done all the videos for the Instagram, but I got
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: to put out the last like four of them. But
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: that's like the seven PM Slate games onwards, so I
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: wasn't as worried about getting those out right away. I'll
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: rehash all of those, I'll I'll just tell you what
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: those plays are again at the end of the show
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: like I usually do, and might do a final.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Market read there. Hopefully this show won't be too long here,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: what do you mean? Wait? What do you mean?
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Eleven points eight minutes into the fourth what that's wait?
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: What what are we talking about? That's how much they
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: scored in the fourth quarter up to that point.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: What are we talking about?
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the Rockets had the big lead. I know
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: they had a big lead in the middle of the
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter, man, So I don't know. I think I
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: probably had the right side in that one. I've not
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: looked at the box score yet. I usually don't look
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: at the box score until the next game, and then
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: college basketball a lot of times I'm not even looking
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: at the box score. I'm just looking at situations or whatever.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: But I did dig into those box scores and saw
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: some things, and that led to me adding cal State
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: north Ridge, even though I knew the situation.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: But that box score kind of put me over the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: edge on that one. Yeah.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: So right in the first eight minutes of the fourth quarter,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: they had eleven points in the fourth quarter.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: That's ridiculous, all right.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: NHL is the big is gonna be the biggest portion
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: of the show today. There's a huge en of NHL
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: board today. Three teams that played yesterday are playing today
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: as well, so I think every team might be playing.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Is it a Super Hockey Day? I don't know.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: No, I don't think it is. They are fourteen games though,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: so I think most teams are playing. ABC has this
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Original six matchup between the New York Rangers and my
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Boston Bruins in Boston at one pm Eastern, So this
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: is the afternoon hockey game here.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: The Rangers are coming into.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: This off of five to two loss at home against Buffalo. Oh,
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: the Rangers lost at home again, what else is new? Now?
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: They're going out on the road, where we know the
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Rangers are better as a road team. Coming off of
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: five to two loss, probably a positive spot here, so
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: I think they will show up. Unfortunately, the Bruins probably
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: will show up as well. The Bruins are coming off
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: of win though over Calgary, but I don't know if
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: that's gonna like, I don't think that win puts you
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: in like let down territory or anything like that. Like,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna overlook the Rangers here. There
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: is still kind of a rivalry here Boston, New York
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: the Bruins.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: That was interestingly in a return home spot.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: They did get the win, which usually I think that's
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: a distracted spot. And interestingly, yeah, they got the win,
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: which is a little bit of quick revenge against Calgary
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: as well. I would slightly lean into the Rangers in
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: this one just because of their ability to win on
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: the road and they're coming off an ugly loss versus
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the Bruins coming off a win at the very least
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: the money seems to basically agree with that. The Bruins
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: have dropped from minus one thirty to minus one twenty five,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the tickets and seventy six percent of
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: the cash on the Rangers. Rangers might wind up being
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: kind of a public underdog side as well, though, but
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: that would be my slight opinion in that one. Calgary
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: is at Pittsburg. I lean to Calgary in this one.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: I'm still of the opinion that Pittsburgh is not as
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: good as they look on this recent run. Again, I
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: think there's a lot of recency bias year. We have
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: a lot of teams that are on losing streaks playing today,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: though Calgary is one of them. They've lost four games
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: in a row and they've lost the last three games
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: by a combined.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Score of thirteen to three.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: So they are not playing well right now, but they
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: might bounce back. Finally, I mean, they're gonna try to
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: get a win on this road trip because they don't
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: have one yet. Getting embarrassed three games in a row
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: probably something that's gonna motivate you a little bit. So
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna show up for this game against Pittsburgh.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: The wait is a third game in four days, all
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: in different cities. Fourth game in six days as well,
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: all in different cities, so a little bit of a
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: concern with a tightly packed schedule there. Pittsburgh is the
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: more rested team because they did have three days off
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: before the New Jersey game, which I thought that was
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: gonna break their momentum and it didn't. They beat New Jersey,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: but they do play Boston tomorrow. I don't know, maybe
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: that's gonna attract more of their attention than Calgary will,
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: just because it's an Eastern Conference team. Tampa is their
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: next opponent after that. I could see Pittsburgh overlooking Calgary
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: here on New Jersey. You know, I don't know if
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: beating New Jersey puts you in a letdown spot at
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: this point because they haven't been playing well, But I think.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I lean to Calgary in this one.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: It's it's the two streaks going in opposite directions here,
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: and I think it might be a streak end or
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: for both teams in this one. The money seems to
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: agree with that. Pittsburgh ninety four percent of the tickets
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: and only sixty percent of the cash, so they are.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Public with a lot less than money on them.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: They initially went up on the money line from minus
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: one forty to minus one fifty three. So you're getting
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: a decent money line price as the dog out on
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Calgary there, and you could do like a split bet,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: which my one play today is going to be a
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: split bet, partially on the puck line, partially on the
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: money line.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Columbus is at Colorado. Wait what? Oh shit?
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Oh sorry, man, I apologize. I apologize all right, hopefully
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: that that wasn't too bad there. But there are those
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: market reads that I was talking about. Easier to visualize it.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: There you can see the cash percentage on the Rangers.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: There's the Pittsburgh one that I just talked about. Man,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: I'm so out of it this morning. No sleep at all.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: All right, Columbus is at Colorado. Here, Columbus is coming
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: off a loss to Vegas. I mean that's still a
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: pretty big game. I don't know how close this game
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: really was, so maybe something to look into. Yeah, I
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: mean they were down by one goal late in the game,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: so that was a close game for Columbus there. Now
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: they're having to go to Colorado. Maybe not the easiest
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: spot for them. Here they are, Yeah, they have to
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: play Uta tomorrow. But I mean this is a big
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: game obviously, so the question is how tired it is
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: Columbus gonna be after that game against Vegas. They have
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: to go into elevation and play the best team in hockey.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Colorado is coming off an eight to two beat down
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: of Ottawa, though, so they're probably feeling pretty good after that.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: That did break a losing streak for them, so they
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: might be back to their winning ways. But then again,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know do they really show up for a
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: game against Columbus.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: The money line has dropped a little bit on Colorado,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: down for minus two eighty five to minus two to
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: seventy five.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they're a huge favorite.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: We don't really see any percentages yet that are really
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: valuable for this one, So I don't have much of
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: an opinion on this one. To be honest, I think
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: the spot is actually a little bit better for Colorado though.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: But if you like Colorado, I mean, how do you
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: even want to play that game?
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Like you really want to lay like.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: A puck line and demand that they win by multiple
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: goals against an opponent that they still might not really
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: show up against.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to do that.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe Colorado over their team total might make sense.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: With Columbus being tired, that could affect their deepense a
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: little bit.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: The total is going up.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: It's almost at seven the total in that game, so
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Colorado over a team total might actually make sense in
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: that one, although you're probably gonna be asking him to score.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Like five goals, probably close to in that game, which
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: seems like a really, really huge ask.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Dallas is also going to be a pretty big favorite
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: here at San Joseo, though they're not. I thought Dallas
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: is going to be minus two hundred in this game,
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: but they're not. Dallas did just break a losing streak,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: so they had lost six games in a row and
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: they finally won at Washington. Washington's a pretty good team, though,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: so will that newfound momentum carry through to this game.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Because Dallas is now going to the
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: The good thing for them is that going for East
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Coast to West coast here, they're not having to play
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: a late night game here. This is still an afternoon game.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: All the games I've talked about are in the afternoon.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: They will have atten gerback and net as well, because
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: the smith played in the last game, assuming there's no
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: injury or anything like that. I don't think so, because
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: that was a back to back, so I think their
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: better goalie will be back in net for Dallas. So
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: some positives here for Dallas. They have broken their laws streak,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: but it is possible that beating Washington is a big
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: deal and they might overlook San Jose a little bit
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: of the Los Angeles the Kings.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: They're a next opponent, maybe not.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: Really a look ahead spot there because the Kings just
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: haven't been doing that well San Jose. I mean, you
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: know you're gonna get an effort out of them, at
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: least because they're hosting Dallas. They are coming up an
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: overtime win against Los Angeles.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: San Jose's staying.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: In the Pacific time zone, and they've had multiple days
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: off as well. I don't know if you have to
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: worry about that breaking their momentum. They've won two games
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: in a row. But I think you know they're gonna
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: show up for a game against Dallas. So I think
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: the spot is a little bit better for San Jose.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: The travel spot is better for them, so I probably
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: lean that way.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it agrees with that.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: Dallas down for minus one seventy seven to minus one sixty.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: Now on the money line, sixty one percent of the
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: tickets are on Dallas, sixty three percent of the cash
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: on San Jose, so it looks like it might be
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: a pros versus Joe's situation there with the actual money
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: on the Sharks. I don't disagree with it, So not
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: a strong opinion though. Anaheim at Buffalo. If I was
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: gonna add another play to my card, I think it
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: would be this game, and it would be Anaheim to
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: break their long losing streak here.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: They've lost eight games in a row.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: Now, Normally when you look at this, you see, oh,
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: they just played Carol lyon and they played Dallas next,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be thinking this is a sandwich spot. But
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I don't think it is. Because Buffalo has been playing
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: really well. Anaheim needs to win desperately here, so I
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: think you know you're gonna get an effort out of them.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: They're gonna have to crack down defensively. I don't know
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: what's going on with the Anaheim right now.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: They've allowed five.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Or more goals in all but one of the recent
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: games going all the way back through Saturday de Summer
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: twenty seventh, and then the other one.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: They gave up four goals.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Somebod's got to give here, man. They got to start
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: playing better defensively. I think they're gonna show up for
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: the game. Buffalo is coming off a win over the Rangers,
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: which is a pretty solid win at the Rangers. I
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: think Buffalo still might consider themselves to be like a
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: little brother in the state of New York to the Rangers,
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: even though the Rangers aren't exactly great right now. Buffalo
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: got that win, and they have Florida next in two days,
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: so that might be a look ahead spot to the
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: returning champs, who are also in their conference.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: So I could see Buffalo overlooking.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: This struggling Anaheim team here. Buffalo's hot, Anaheim is not,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: So it's one of those situations where probably you're getting
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: some live value fading the recency bias. Buffalo is up
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: from minus one forty five to minus one fifty five
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: on the money line, they have eighty six percent of
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: the tickets on them, but the cash is on Anaheim
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: sixty nine percent of the money on Anaheim. I agree.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: If I was going to add another hockey play, it
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: would probably be this one Anaheim. Maybe a split bet
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: on that one too, plus partially on the plus one
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: and have puck line and partially on the money line.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: If you want to go straight up money line, you
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: could do that as well, but I think Anheim is
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: the side to look at in that game. Next up
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: is the actual game that I'm playing, which I think
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: is a bigger sandwich spot because with the Buffalo one,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: I could still see maybe some arguments that beating the
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Rangers isn't that huge of a deal right now because
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: the Rangers don't have a great record and they're not
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: good at home. This game I like a little bit more,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: and it is the Vancouver Cannucts, partially on the plus
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: one and a half puck line at minus one seventy
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: and partially excuse a plus one forty eight on the
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: money line. If you want to just go all money line,
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: that's fine as well, put a little bit less money
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: at risk. But this is how I calculated it with
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: the run line calculator here from Johnny Ma the baseball guy.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know who he is, but he must do
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: baseball stuff.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: But you can use it for hockey as well to
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: figure out how you want to split the bet up
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: to make your own minus one or plus one puck line.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: It comes out to a minus one oh nine price
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: on this, which is good. And that's also because if
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: you have a bunch of books available to you can
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: find the best number on each price potentially different books.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Right, So that's what I did here. It's gonna be
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: a split bet.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: So obviously, if Vancouver loses by exactly one, the bet
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: will push, So it's a little bit more risk averse here.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Hopefully we can get the scoop though, and that they win.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: They're another team that's on a losing street. Vancouver's lost
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: five in a row. They just lost five to one
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: at Detroit. Man, I think they're gonna bounce back from that.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: I mean that's an ugly loss. No team wants to
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: lose five to one. Man, they were pretty competitive in
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: the games prior to that, so that game looks like
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit more of an outlier to me there.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: I didn't really dive into the box score on that
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: to see was this game really that lopsided. It kind
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: of looks like it wasn't. I mean, the shot disparity
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: was just Detroit plus one. Vancouver was the way more
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: physical team and Vancouver had more face offs one so
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: and they gave up an empty net goal near the
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: end and everything was just kind of out of reach.
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this game was closer than it looked on
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: the score. So I like that Vancouver looked worse than
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: they actually were in that game. We're fading Toronto here
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: in Toronto. They're playing a bit better recently, but I
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: think this is a bad spot for them. Man, they
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: beat the returning champs Florida and they did not have
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: a letdown after that. They went to Philadelphia beat them
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: in overtime, and that's another pretty big win because Philadelphia
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: has been good and Philly is in the Eastern Conference
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: with them. Now they play this Western Conference team that's
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: not playing well. I just think they might overlook Vancouver. Man,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: and Toronto has to start a road trip on Monday
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: and go to Colorado, so I think that is a
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: bigger deal. So I think this is a sandwich spot.
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take Vancouver in the bounce back spot there,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: So I like both sides of that.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I like how it sets up for both teams there.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Vancouver is my only Hockey Play of the day as
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: a split bet there, Tyson, what's up man, thanks for
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: hanging out.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: The Cult is back. Maybe the cult members are back?
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: All right?
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: We have a Detroit at Montreal. This is an interesting one.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, these are both original six teams as well.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know how big of a deal that is,
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: but I feel like I always.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Point that out.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: Detroit was on the winning end of that Vancouver game,
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: but again it was a little bit of a misleading result.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: They won five to one.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: They're going to Montreal here, Montreal just I believe.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they had.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: To win as well. I was gonna say they beat
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: floridaa six to two. So both teams are off pretty
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: good looking wins here, but I think Montreal's was more
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: significant beating Florida six to two. Beating Vancouver nobody gives
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: a shit about that, so I think Montreal was more
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: prone to maybe being in a little bit of a
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: let down here. Although I think both teams will show up,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: but I would slightly lead to Detroit in this one.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: And I know the money disagrees with me on this one.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: Detroit is public eighty three percent of the tickets and
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: cash on them, and Montreal has kind of reverse line
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: moved against that up from minus one thirty to minus
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: one forty three, so the market read the same Montreal,
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: but I don't quite understand it other than the fact
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: that I said Detroit looked better.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Than they actually were in that Vancouver game.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: So there is maybe that angle to consider as far
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: as Montreal, but I think Montreal is off the more
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: significant win though. Florida at Ottawa. Florida is coming off
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: that lost to Montreal. They've lost two games in a
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: row now by combined ten to three score so that's
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: not great for Florida. They're probably gonna be looking to
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: bounce back again. Anytime a team loses by a large
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: margin like that, I think you do want to look
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: for that team to bounce back more than you want
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: to look against them.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Ottawa is returning from a road trible though was a
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: short road trip.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Only Wednesday Thursday the back to back elevation games Utah
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: and Colorado, and Ottawa got absolutely destroyed in the second
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: game of the back to back. I think they just
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: had nothing left at that point in Colorado beat them
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: eight to two. That's embarrassing as well, so I think
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Ottawa should be in a bounced back spot here. It's
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: not one of those return home spots where I'm saying
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be destroyed after a long time away from home.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: Now they're only away Wednesday Thursday. I think they're gonna
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: show up for this game. It's against Florida, the returning
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: champs we know, so this game, it's like which team
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: is in the greater bounceback spot is really the question here?
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: And the money is coming in on Autawa for what
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: it's worth. They dropped from minus one to fifteen to
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: minus one to twelve on the money line, but we
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: have eighty seven percent of the money on them, and
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: the tickets fifty to fifty evenly split.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: So I won't disagree with the market in that one.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: I think Ottawa was off the more embarrassing performance, So
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: I think Ottawa might be an okay side to look
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: at in that one, but I don't have a strong
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: opinion there.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is at Philadelphia.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia, Tampa Bay is coming off a huge win against Colorado.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Man Tampa Bay is on fire right now. They've won
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: eight games in a row, huge win against Colorado, and
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: now they've had three days off, and that might be
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: a problem because I always talk about this. When you
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: have a long win streak like this, the last thing
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: you want to do is stop playing for an extended
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: period of time because it can hurt your momentum. Now
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: they are starting a road trip, and usually your focus
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: to start a road trip, and I don't really see
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: them being unfocused against a Philly team that's playing pretty well.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: But that was a monumental win against Colorado man and
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: that break could still disrupt Tampa's momentum. Here, Philadelphia is
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: coming in off a loss at home to Toronto, which
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: is a pretty ugly loss, and they're staying at home.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: So I like Philadelphia in this one. I think the
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: game sets up better for the Flyers here. This one
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: is one of the ones I like better as well.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: So obviously Vancouver is my favorite of the day. I
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: think next I would do Anaheim, and then this one
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: is up.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: There as well.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: I would say I like Philadelphia here, whereas I looking, Yeah,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay has gone up on the money line though,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: from minus one forty to minus one fifty two, fifty
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets fifty two percent of the cash on them.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: I don't really know how to read that market. Right now,
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: it looks like some initial money on Tampa Bay. But
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: again I would fade that, maybe even take a split
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: bet approach on Philadelphia partially on the puck line, partially
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: on the money line, or just going money line on it.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: But yes, I like Philadelphia in that one stacks. What's up, man,
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Seattle is at Carolina. Carolina is gonna be a huge
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: favorite here.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: We have a few really big moneyline favorites today, three
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: of them minus two hundred or greater.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: This is obviously one of them.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: Seattle made a nice run and then they lost to
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: Minnesota in their last game, tough game, losing to Minnesota
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: in overtime, man, and it broke a four game win
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: streak for Seattle, which I think was a little bit misleading.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: I don't think Seattle is this good at all, and
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: the odds bikers are telling you they're not.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: So now they're winning. Momentum is over. They had a
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: tough game.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: I know this is the start of a road trip,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: and I know it's against Carolina, so starting a road
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: trip usually our focus. You should be focused for a
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: game against Carolina. But I just don't really love how
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: the sets up for Seattle. Otherwise, with their win streak
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: being snapped and coming off another big game, Carolina is
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: just staying at home. I think the spot sets up
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: better for Carolina here easy win over Anaheim in their
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: last game, they didn't suffer the letdown off of the
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: win over Dallas.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I guess you could maybe make the argument the look
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: ahead to Detroit because Detroit's been playing well.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Maybe Carolina just won't have a full effort because they
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: don't care about Seattle. That's like the one thing that
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: I could see maybe helping Seattle in this one. The
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: margarited is saying Seattle, though Carolina's the minus two seventy
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: favorite ninety of the tickets on them and only eighty
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: seven percent of the cash. So the marger reed is
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: saying Seattle. And I guess if you do want to
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: do that, it would be a puck line approach there
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: for sure, But I still don't really want to do it.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: I actually I think Carolina should win the game, and
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: I kind of slightly lean towards Carolina in whatever capacity,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: but that's definitely not a game I want to get
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: involved in. We have a Chicago at Nashville. Chicago let
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: me see, Chicago played yesterday against Washington and that snapped
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: a wind streak for them.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: They lost five to one.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: It's an ugly loss though, and now they're going to
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Nashville on the back to back, third game in four days.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: I think they will show up though, because these two
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: teams don't like each other. I know Chicago plays Edmonton next,
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: but I think this is a big game against Nashville.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: And they did lose to Nashville back on November twenty eighth,
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: They lost at home four to three to them, So
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: last time they played I think that was the last
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: time they played them, they lost, so maybe something to
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: consider it.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Quick revenge angle, or a quick adjustment angle, if you
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: want to call it that. So there are some positive
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: some negatives that I see for Chicago here for Nashville,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: the Nashville sex offenders. They're coming into this game with
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: a big win over the Islanders, and I thought that
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: was a bad spot for Nashville.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: They were returning home from a road trip.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: They got the win in a shootout against the Islanders
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: two days ago. Now they are staying at home, but
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: they might have more of a tendency to actually overlook Chicago.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: I know part of my handicap is that they might
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: look ahead to Chicago there because it is a rivalry.
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, Man, They have Washington and Edmonton, Colorado,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: and Vegas all up next in their next four games.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: You could make the argument this is a sandwich spot here,
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: so overall in this game, I slightly leaned towards Chicago.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree. Minus two hundred National is
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: actually up to minus two to four now on the
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: money line, fifty percent of the tickets in ninety percent
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Chicago.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: I agree with that one. I think that would be
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: a puck line approach in that one. If you wanted
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: to do it that way, that would probably be the
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: way that I would go.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: In that one.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: I was thinking there was a game, Oh yes, Columbus Colorado.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: By the way, I had some thought about that.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: Game that an over kind of made in that game too.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: I don't remember why I was thinking that though, because
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: I was thinking, oh, this game might be an over,
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. I think it's maybe I was
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: just thinking about why, like that total is just so high, man,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm getting sidetracked here, all right, But yes,
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: in that game of Chicago, puck line is probably my
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: lean in that one, Islanders are at Minnesota. The Islanders
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: just took that loss and shootout to Nashville, not a
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: great game for the Islanders, so they might bounce back.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Maybe they were even looking ahead to Minnesota because Minnesota
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: is a good team, so I think you might see
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: the Islanders show up here. Minnesota's coming out of an
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: easy game, well, an easy opponent to face against Seattle,
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: but Seattle took them into overtime, so Minnesota might be
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: in better form here. However, they're returning over from a
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: road trip, so I don't like that. Minnesota has been
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: on the road for a long time since December twenty seventh,
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: so this is the longest road trip return that we
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: have today.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: And you know me, I don't like these long road trips.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: I think you either have to fade the team it's
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: returning home, or you've got to pass on the game.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, on the side, because these road trips
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: can really really hurt you. Man. You can when you
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: have to get back to home life, it could be
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: a major distraction and you might overlook the game, so
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: I think that might be a little bit of a
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: problem for Minnesota here. I don't think they are necessarily
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: going to overlook the Islanders, though they have New Jersey
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: up next to Jersey has not been playing well, so
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: the Islanders are an opponent that will drama or you're
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: focus right now, and that's the issue that I have
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: with this game. I still like the Islanders, though I
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: think it sets up better for the Islanders in this one.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: It's still you're fading.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: The team are turning over from a road trip, which
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: I would never, never, really disagree with doing that.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: The money agrees on this one.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: Minnesota down for minus one seventy five to minus one
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: seventy sixty two percent of the tickets on them and
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of the money on the Islanders. So
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: there's a pros versus Joe split in this one. It
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: looks like I agree with it. I would lean to
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: the Islanders as well in that one.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: This one I.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Would probably put like maybe fourth in my rankings out
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: of all these NHL games here. I like it, but
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: I don't like it as much as some of the
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: other ones that I talked about. Kings and Edmonton Kings
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: just lost to Winnipeg five to one, although that was yesterday,
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: so the Kings aren't a back to back and they're
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: playing a third game at four and as all in
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: different cities. But anytime you lose five to one, I
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: think you're gonna try to bounce back from that, man,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: So I think the spot might be okay for the
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: Kings here. And by the way, this is a common
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: opponent game where Edmonton just played the same opponent the
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: day before that, Winnipeg, and they beat.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: Them four to three.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: So everybody's gonna be on Edmonton in this game, man,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: seeing Oh yeah, Edmonton just beat Winnipeg. Winnipeg just destroyed
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: the Kings. Edmonton's the better team. It looks so easy
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: to play Edmonton.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: Edmonton is coming back from Winnipeg. It was only a
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: single game road trip, but now they have this game
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: and then they go back out on the road. Now
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: we know the Kings are better on the road, by
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: the way, eleven six and five on the road not horrible.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Edmonton is good at home though, eleven five and three.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: But if I was gonna play this game, I would
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: be on the La Kings here, man, Although I know
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: Edmonton's next opponent is not really that much cause for
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: look ahead here, Who's wait, who are they playing next?
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: I forget?
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: I just saw it too. Oh yes, Chicago. I don't
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: think that's really a look ahead there. But all that
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: being said, yeah, I think I would lean to the
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: Kings in this one. The money agrees on this one too.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: It looks like a strong market read on this one too,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: pros versus Joe's potentially Edmonton up to minus one seventy
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: five on the money line, fifty seven percent of the
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: tickets on them and eighty five percent of the cash
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: on the Kings. So that's a big split there in
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: that one, as well as far as we see on
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: the the percentages there by the way, I know I
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: didn't talk about the percentages of the Vancouver game that
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I'm on, although we see them now, by the way,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: So Toronto dropped from minus one seventy to minus one
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: fifty three on the money line in that one nine
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: percent of the it's an only sixty two percent of
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: the cash. So the money does look like it's agreeing
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: with me on Vancouver.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: In that one.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: And then we finish it off with another huge Favorite's
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis at Vegas. Vegas might be an even bigger
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: favorite here because Saint Louis played yesterday, so they are
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: the other team that's on a back to back, the last.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Of the three.
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: They're playing a third game in four days, all in
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: different cities. Not easy to do coming down out of elevation.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: They lost at Utah yesterday four to two. Ideally, Saint
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: Louis is going to try to show up man and
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: try to salvage a game on this road trip and
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: not go own three on the road trip.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: They should show up at least mentally for a game
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: against Vegas.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: But it's a tough travel spot for Saint Louis man
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: and tough lack of rest spot there. Vegas has won
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: two in a row at home. They just beat Columbus.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Who cares they got momentum just sitting at home. They
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: do have to go on the road to face San
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: Jose next tomorrow, although I'm not really sure that's that
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: much of a look ahead, and Vegas to just oh
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: was on January second at Saint Louis. So Vegas might
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: actually show up for this game to try to get
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: back at Saint Louis, and they might have the adjustments
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: made after that loss at Saint Louis.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: So I think of this game, it's either.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: Vegas or pass the money's disagreeing on that. Vegas did
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: go up to minus two fifty six on the money line,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: but ninety one percent of the tickets on them in
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: eighty three percent of the cash on Saint Louis.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: So that looks like a pros versus Joe's split.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Where the market reda saying the Blues. But I actually disagree.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: With that one.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: I would probably it would probably be a puck line
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: play for me on the uh Golden Knights, if I
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: was gonna do anything with that.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: All Right, we have NBA.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: We have one afternoon game in the NBA and then
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: five evening games, five night games. Minnesota at Cleveland Round
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: two or Minnesota Cleveland Round two, because the first one
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: of these games is at Minnesota. So this is maybe
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: a zig zag scenario here. Minnesota just beat Cleveland in
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: Minnesota by nine. I thought Cleveland was the right side
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: in that game. I was not correct. Now Minnesota's won
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: four games in a row, but now they play Cleveland again.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Weird single game road trip. And then Minnesota does have
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: San Antonio next, so after they already beat Cleveland once,
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: Minnesota might look ahead to San Antonio. Man, And I
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: can tell you right now, Minnesota does seem to be
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: not throwing their full effort at this game because Anthony
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: Edwards is being rested in this.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Game, so he's not playing in this game.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: And I know there were injury questions around him in
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: the last game, although he did play even though he
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: wasn't their high score. He played in the game against
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Cleveland in the last game, so a lot of things
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: to consider him.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: And Cleveland is of course coming off of that loss,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: so I expect Cleveland to be focused in the zig
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: zag scenario. So it should be Cleveland that should be
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: the team that will make adjustments here against Minnesota. But
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: the problem is, because Anthony Edwards is now not playing,
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: the line.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Has moved up on Cleveland. Because you remember, Minnesota is about.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: A two point favorite in the home game, which would
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: basically indicate that the Cavs should probably be about.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: A two point favorite here.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: I would say something along those lines, I think, but
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: they're up from three and a half to five here,
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: so I just don't really think there's much line value
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: on the Calves man. Even though I think the Calves
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: probably will win the game, I think they will make
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: the adjustments to get the win here. But the there
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: is a chance they play a little bit harder because
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: they know Edwards isn't playing. But again, the fact that
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: they're wrestling and makes it seem like they're like, all right,
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: we got our job done. We beat the Calves once,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: let's focus on San Antonio next year. We will see
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: the money is coming in on the Calves, seventy nine
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: on them. If you forced me to give you a
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: lean on that one, I would still lean to Cleveland.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: But I think there's pretty much no line value there.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: And I'm not playing any of these NBA games today.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: Miami is at Indiana. Miami has had an extra break
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: because if you guys were talking about this when I
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: was doing my show with Clint, what the hell happened
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: in this game? Miami at Chicago, they couldn't play because
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: the ice hockey rink like leaked onto the court, Like,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: what the hell happened in that game?
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: I have no idea, but it's been postpones.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Now Miami has to play that extra game against Chicago
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: sometime in the future. So Miami now hasn't played since Tuesday,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: and that was a horrendous loss to Minnesota. I think
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: we lost on that game on the show. Actually, if
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: I remember correctly, I don't know what That was horrible
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: game from Miami, and I don't necessarily know that Miami
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: bounces back. I mean, I know, usually it's a good
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: thing when you have extra time off to fix what
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: went wrong and that loss. Like if you went into
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: that extended break on a losing note, you do want
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: to fix that stuff. But the problem is they play
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma City tomorrow, man, and they just beat this Indiana
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: team on December twenty seventh by whatever, that is, twenty
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: six points to one sixteen. So they housed Indiana in Miami,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: so it's still possible they just look right past Indiana here.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: So I actually still lean to Indiana in this game.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Despite Miami having that extra rest to try to fix
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: some things, Indiana should show up. And they did just
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: get a win at Charlotte, which broke a long losing streak, man,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: So I think that's good.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: Indiana hadn't won a games. It's December eighth.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: They hadn't won for literally a month, and I think
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: when that happens, you finally get a win. I think
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: it's like you get some relief, the monkeys off your back.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: You can play looser.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: I think they will show up, even though they do
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: play Boston next, but I don't think they're gonna overlook
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: that Miami team that just blew them out last time
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: they played.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: The Miami is not a bad team.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: So I would take the points of the Pacers in
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: this one if I was gonna play it. The Heat
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: are an eight point favorite, sixty seven percent of the
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: tickets on them, fifty one percent of the cash on
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: the Pacers, though, so it does look like kind of
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: a pros versus Joe's market reading that one as well,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: indicating on the Indiana side.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: So I agree with that the Clippers are at Detroit.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: The Clippers did get.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: A win at Brooklyn, even though I thought that was
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: kind of a weird spot with the Clippers that just
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: played the nick and they had Detroit, and that was
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: yesterday that they beat Brooklyn. So they're on a back
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: to back, third game in four days, not necessarily really
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: a different cities, but at least in different arenas. Because
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: the first two games are both in New York City,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Clippers should show up for a game against Detroit. But
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: the Clippers did just kind of embarrass Detroit in LA
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: back on December twenty seventh, beating them one twelve to
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: ninety nine. That coupled with the fact that it is
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: still a back to back for them, I don't know, man,
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: I think maybe Detroit might be the side to look
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: at here. Detroit did just beat Chicago, but Chicago just
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: hasn't been playing well man.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: And now, yeah, Detroit sticking around at home.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if that extra rest is
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: gonna hurt their momentum a little bit.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: They won three games in a row.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: I think because they had such a bad game at
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: the Clippers last time they played them, I think Detroit
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: might show up in this one. Detroit is really good
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: at home fourteen and three at home. Clippers have been
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: atrocious on the road five and fourteen, So I think
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: I do lean to Detroit in this one slightly. But
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: the money is completely disagreeing with it. Pistons dropped from
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: six and a half to five and a half here,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: fifty six percent of the tickets on them ninety three
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Clippers.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: So the money's coming in on the Clippers.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: It's a really strong market read on the Clippers, and
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: it's not something I don't really want to fade a
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: market read that's that strong, but I do kind of
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: disagree with it. San Antonio is at my Boston Celtics.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: This is a big game, and unfortunately the odds makers
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: are telling you the Spurs are quite a good team.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: Because the odds makers like the Celtics. They basically think
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: the Celtics are one of the top teams in the East,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: but the West is just so much better. Man, they
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: got the Spurs not only is the better team but
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: as the favorite here in Boston. But the Spurs are
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: traveling across country. And the Spurs did just beat the Lakers,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: which is a very satisfying win for the Spurs. Man,
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: anytime you beat the Lakers a big game in the
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: Western Conference like that. They beat them by sixteen, the
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: game was closer earlier in the game.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: That is a huge win. And now they're traveling. Now.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to overlook the Celtics, but
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: they do have travel.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: It could be in a bit of a letdown. Spot.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: I think the spot might set up slightly better for
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: the Celtics here, except the fact that the Celtics played yesterday,
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: although they're staying at home, so the travel spot is better.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: But the Celtics played yesterday, and of course San Antonio
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: is not played since Wednesday, while the Celtics did have
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: to play that game in between the two. But the
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: Celtics had a nice bounce back win against Toronto. They're
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: not going to overlook the Spurs. It's just how unrested
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: are the Celtics gonna be. Although seeing that Pritchard was
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: their primary score in the last game might indicate that
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: maybe the Celtics did actually not play their starters for
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: their full workloads here. Let me see, No, they basically did.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Brown played thirty seven minutes, White played thirty eight. So yeah,
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: I'm wrong about that. So the Celtics did play their
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: main guys for the majority of the game, so they
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: did not rest them there.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: So the back to back might hurt them a little bit.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Celtics have a decent amount of day though, so I
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: don't know. We'll see, but I know that the money's
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: coming in on San Antonio in this one. Seventy percent
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Spurs fifty nine percent of
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: the tickets on the Celtics.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Celtics being public.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: Looks weird to me because the Spurs do have the
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: better record, so at the pick the winner price, I
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: would expect the public to actually lean with the Spurs,
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: but it looks like they're kind of not so. The
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: market REDA is leading towards the Spurs is a one
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: point favorite here. I'm not gonna I don't have much
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: of a reason to disagree with it really though, So unfortunately,
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: I probably have to go with the market in that
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: one because I just don't have a strong opinion on it,
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: and the Celtics are still on the back to back.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Dallas is at Chicago.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: Of course, Chicago is gonna have extra rest because of
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: that postponed game. Dallas is coming off that loss at Utah.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: Not a good game for Dallas. We lost on that one.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: Dallas never really in position to cover in that one. Unfortunately,
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: now Dallas is coming out of that game going to Chicago.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know how Dallas is gonna respond. Man, I
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: should bounce back from that ugly game against Utah.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: They're probably gonna try to.
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Go too, and one on the road trip and not
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: lose the road trips, So I guess that might have
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: them focus the fact that they're one and one on
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: the three game road trip right now. Chicago, though, I
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: think that extra rest might help them because they went
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: into that postponed game on a three game losing streak,
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: so that might help them kind of break that losing momentum.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: So they might show up for this game against Dallas
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: so that they do go out and play Houston on
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: the road next. But to me, I think the spot
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: does look a little bit better for Chicago here.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what does the market red look
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: like here? It slightly agree with the Bulls, but the Bulls.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of stuff going on in this game,
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: and the Bulls have dropped from five to two and
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: a half here, eighty three percent of tickets, eighty four
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Bulls.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: They're public, looks like maybe more of the money on them.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: But I can't figure out why the line dropped unless
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: the Bulls maybe thought that Giddy was coming back or
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: something like that, but he is not.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: The Bulls might have some additional.
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: Injuries here, but the big injury in this game is
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: actually on the Mavericks side, of course, it's Anthony Davis.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: He got hurt in the last game.
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: He has a torn ligament in his hand or something,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: so he's gonna be out for I don't know how long.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: So it is actually an injured player spot for Dallas here,
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: So that actually for me might actually tilt the scales
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: towards Dallas here, even though otherwise I might lean to
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: the Bulls. But I think the fact that it's an
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: injured player spot for the MAVs and they know they
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: have to play hard now without Ad that first game again,
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: when you lose a guy, I mean, the MAVs are
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: used to playing without him because he's missed plenty of
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: time with them, and now that he's been in the
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: lineup for a while, it's the injured player theory again
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: that first game without him, the MAVs might actually show
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: up and play well. So I actually probably go all
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: the way around there, and I actually probably due lean
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: to Dallas just because of that. But I don't like
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: the game, and I don't like the last game either.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: Charlotte at Utah. Let's see, Charlotte is coming off a loss.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: As I said, at home to Indiana, that's not a
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: good loss, so going out of the road probably a positive,
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: although it's a third game in four days, actually, a
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: fourth game in five days, and a sixth game in
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: nine days, which is not great for them, and a
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: lot of them in different cities, so Charlotte doesn't have
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: a whole lot of rest here. But after a bad
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: home loss, it might be good to just leave, go
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: out on the road, focus on basketball. So I don't
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: see it as really a negative spot for Charlotte here.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Utah did just beat Dallas.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: At home as an underdog, so I think the spot
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: might actually be worse for Utah because they did not
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: suffer the hangover after that huge ot game against Oklahoma
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: City where they took them.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: To overtime and loss.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: That was why we faded Utah in the next game
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: in a back to back. Utah still somehow got that
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: win against Dallas. Now they're on a third game in
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: four days. They do have Cleveland next, so it could
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: be a bit of a little bit, maybe even a
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: sandwich here for Utah, So I think I would lean
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: it Charlotte generally here.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: However, Charlotte has gone.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: From a pick them to a five point favorite now,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: so Why is that the case?
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Why did they move up that much if it was
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: a pick them.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the Hornets I think would be the right side
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: to look at sixty three percent of ticket, sixty six
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Jazz, maybe some money
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: coming into the Jazz.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Thinking this line has overreacted a little bit.
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: The reason for the line move is that Markanen, who
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: is basically the best player on the Jazz, he's not
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: playing either, giving him a rest day here. So it
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: seems like the Jazz again because it's not an injury
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: because it is rest. I could see it going both ways, right,
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: Like the team knows their best player is out, so
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: for that reason they might actually show up and play hard.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: But then the problem with it is because it's a
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: scheduled rest game for them, that kind of indicates to
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: the players, hey, we're not going to pay that much
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: attention to this game, So that might be a problem
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: for them.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I think Charlotte probably does win the game, but I
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: don't really want to lay the five with them. A
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Utah does also have some other injuries. Who's Ace Bailey's
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: going to be out?
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: He's been a decent role player for them, and we
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: don't know if Nurkic is going to be in there,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: they're going to kind of need him to be there
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: in the middle of there man as a big man there, he's.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: A game time decision.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't like this NBA board at all obviously,
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: so we are staying away.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: And then, of course we have playoffs. Don't talk about
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, you kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: can win a game another game.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: We have the NFL Playoffs, beginning with two games today
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: of course, starting at four to thirty pm Eastern, both NFC.
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: Both games are NFC today. The first game is the
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Rams at the Panthers, and needless to say, this is
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: not the game that I have a play on. If
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: you watch my show with Clint where we broke down everything,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: I give out some interesting stats.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I did in my bracket special
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: or not, but I will give out some wild stats
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: on many of the games in the playoffs. The Rams
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: are ten and a half point favorite here, but it
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: looks like the money is actually coming in on them.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: It's ten or ten and a half.
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: Of course, if you do like the Rams, and I
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: actually do in this game, you want to try to
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: find the ten rather than the ten and a half here,
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: seventy one percent of the tickets seventy six percent of
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: the cash on the Rams here. Now, there are some
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: issues with laying the price with the Rams, one being
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: that the total is not really that high at forty
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: five and a half. But the Panthers are really just
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: They're really just not that good on either side of
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: the ball man, So I could see it being a
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: scenario where the game isn't particularly high scoring, but the
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Rams still win by double digits. The money is slightly
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: coming on the over for what it's worth seventy five
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets seventy eight percent of the cash on
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: the over, but the total did drop from forty six
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: and a half to forty five and a half, and
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: mostly it seems like kind of public money on the over,
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, I mean, the money for me,
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: the market read almost looks a little bit under ish,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: but I don't have a good feel for the total
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: except for the fact that the previous time the Rams
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: played at the Panthers, which was not that long ago,
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: so we do have We do have a data point
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: here where this is a rematch of a game that
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: happened not that long ago in the same location, and
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: in that game, the game went over. I believe the
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: Panthers won that game thirty one to twenty eight or
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: thirty one to twenty seven, something like that.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: So that game had a it was a highest scoring final.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: So if people are gonna look at that, they're gonna think,
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: oh my god, forty five is so low, like let's
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: go over, right, But I would lean against that sentiment,
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: like people looking at that previous game might draw the
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: wrong conclusions.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: I think the Rams.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: Defense is gonna be better in this game. I do
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: not think the Panthers are gonna be top thirty in
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: this one man. So another way to look at this game,
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: you could actually go Panthers under their team total, which
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: looks insane because they scored thirty whatever against the Rams
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: the last time here. But the Panthers team total in
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: this game, I think it's like seventeen if you can
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: get it an under seventeen or seventeen and a half.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Of course, seventeen is a key number.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: I could see the Panthers getting shut down offensively in
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: this game. They're just not good really on either side
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: of the ball. Now, I think the Rams will make
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: the adjustments, by the way to that game that they
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: lost at Carolina. Yeah, it was a thirty one to
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: twenty eight final, but if you look at what happened in.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: This game, it was pretty misleading. Man.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: The Rams are actually the better team in this game,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: and they had a horrible turnover deficit in the game
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: and they still almost won the game. The Rams were
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: minus three in turnovers and they still only lost by three.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: The Rams had more yardage only by twenty one, but
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: the Rams did have more total yards, they had five
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: more first downs, and Carolina did win the time of
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: possession battle, though by a pretty significant amount by over
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: ten minutes. But still the Rams were somewhat still the
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: better team in the game, so it was still a
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: bit of a misleading result. The turnovers really hurt the Rams.
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: I think there was a defensive touchdown if I'm not mistaken,
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: in the game for Carolina. Yet they had a pick
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: six here that really kind of changed the momentum of
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: the game. It put like La was driving and it
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: put Carolina up seven instead of the Rams potentially scoring
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: to take the lead. So that really threw the game off.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: So it was a bit of a misleading result. I
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: think the Rams are definitely gonna show up focus. I mean,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: obviously both teams will show up focused. I think the
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: Rams are gonna be the team that has the bigger
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: adjustments to make here. So it's kind of a zigzag
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: spot because that last result was such an outlier. So
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: I would actually lay the points with the Rams if
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: I was gonna play it.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: But there are some concerns here.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: First of all, this is the largest road favorite in
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: NFL playoff history, so I don't know if that's necessarily
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: something I want to buck. But you could make the
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: argument that, well, the line is that way for a reason,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: because this is like a historical mismatch. You could make
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: that argument that that's the reason why the line is
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: like this. But home underdogs usually do pretty well in
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, so I don't really want to fade a
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: home dog of this magnitude. Carolina. Now it is interesting, Caroline.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: It was really awful this season, Like, they're clearly the
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: worst team in the playoff field. They were minus sixty
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: seven point differential, which is atrocious, So that means teams
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: scored sixty seven more points against them than they scored
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: against their opponents.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: That is awful. It is, as I talked.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: About this with Clint, it is the third worst point
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: differential for a playoff team in NFL history. The only
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: two that were worse were the twenty ten Seattle Seahawks,
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: where they were a team that got into the playoffs
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: because they won their awful division and they were below
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: five hundred and everybody was making fun of them, and
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: their point differential that year was like minus eighty something.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: And then the other one I think was in the
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: minus seventies and it was the Tim Tebow Denver Broncos,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: and both those teams were big underdogs at home. However,
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: both of those teams won their playoff games. So there's
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: it's some weird history, man, where these teams that have
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: had the worst point differentiels going into the playoffs, it's
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: like they get extra motivated, right, So that's the thing,
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Like Carolina kind of is that team where I use
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: this as as an angle a lot and play in
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: the playoffs.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: I always look at that.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Team, Like the first thing that I do when the
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: playoff field comes out is who is that team that
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: won that worst division in football that everybody's saying shouldn't
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: even be in the playoffs, and that everybody said, like, oh,
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: the every team wants to play them, right, Like everybody
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: was probably saying, oh, La wants to get the five steed,
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: right because that means they get to play Caroline, Like
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: everybody was saying, Yeah, everybody wants the five seed so
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: that they can play Carolina and get an easy win.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Right. So you do hear that all all the time.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: So that does motivate that home team, and I think
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: that's part of the reason why those other two teams
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: that I just mentioned did win with the Marshawn Lynch
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: beast quake run in the Seattle game, which I believe
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: was against the New.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: Orleans Saints if I remember correctly.
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: And then the Tim Tebow one was of course against Pittsburgh,
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: and that was that ridiculous game where I remember Tim
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: tebowa just had some crazy pass over the middle and
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: then they wound up winning an overtime or something like that.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: I don't remember if that was the Tim Tebow three
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: sixteen game two or not. That would be crazy of
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: all of that coincided. But yes, there are reasons why
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: Carolina might be playing with a chip on their shoulder.
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: So that is my concern because so I see angles
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: for both sides here, man, So I don't want to
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: play the game, but if you force me to give
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: you a lean, I lean to the Rams. I think
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: the Rams obviously should get out of this with a win.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: The Rams are possibly the best team in the NFL,
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: so I don't see them losing the game. The cover
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a different story. I still
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: kind of lean towards them covering and winning by that margin,
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: but there's no way that I could do that. I
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: can't really recommend either side here, man, Like I think
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: actually playing like the under in the game, or well
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: actually not really the under, but playing the Carolina team
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: total under I think might actually even be like the
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: preferred way to play this game. So those are my
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: thoughts on that game. Yes, playoffs, all right, And then
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: the next game is of course the game that I
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: actually do have a playout, And we are fading a
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: home favorite in this one, but it's not really or excuse,
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: you're fading a home under dog iscus me in this game,
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: which again, usually don't want to fade home dogs in
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: the playoffs as a general rule, but of course in
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: this case, it's basically a pick the winner price. So
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: it's not like you're really fading a big home dog
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: or anything like that.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: You know what we're doing.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: We're going right back to the well. We're taking green
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: Bay here. And I believe I did not have green
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: Bay as a play in either of the first two
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: games against Chicago, but I had them as leans, and
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: I use them as picks I think in my pick'ems
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: and whatever. I don't know if I use them in
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: my I don't think I use either of them in
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: my pick fives, but my contests. But I like green
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: Bay here, man. I mean, this is basically where the
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: rubber meets the road here.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: The Bears.
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: You know, I've been talking about their fraud and talking
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: about that all season, and now here's where it comes
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: down to it, man. Where you have the better, more
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: experienced team with the better defense in the Packers, going
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: up against this fraudulent Bears team who might be out
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: of their element here because they haven't played in a
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: situation like this for a while. I think most things
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: for me line up on the Packers here.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: The Bears are also a public home underdog here, and
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: you know I warn you about public dogs, but public
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: sides in general. But a public home underdog is rare, dude,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: because that means you're getting the better team and fading
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: the public by playing the better team, and in this case,
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: it just to pick the winner price. So that looks
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: really great to me for the market. Read this is
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: the night game, by the way, and it's actually an
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: Amazon Prime sixty five percent of the ticket, sixty percent
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Bears.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: The public, they just like the Bears. Man.
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: The Bears have been playing better football down the stretch,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: or well it looks like they have because they've won
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: more games down the stretch. But the Bears, we don't
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: have a good defense. Man, As I keep pointing out,
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: the defense gives up points, the defense gives up.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: Long drives.
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: That defense isn't great. They're in like the bottom seven
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: or so in the NFL. The offense is pretty mediocre.
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: And even though yes, I think the Bears probably do
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: have the slightly better offense here, I think it's only
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: a slight offensive advantage for the Bears. And I think
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: there's a huge defensive advantage for the Packers. Or I
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: think the Packers are top ten defense even without Micah
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: Parsons here. That's another thing everybody's saying about Micah Parsons
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: this whatever he's gone, green Bay has been way worse
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: without him. Yeah, but that's kind of the narrative here,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: is that, look how bad green Bay is coming into
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: the playoffs here. Yeah, but look at these games here.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: They lost at Denver, which is a tough place to play,
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: and you remember, green Bay was winning that game.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: They were winning the game, I think.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: Twenty four to thirteen or something like that, and then
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I think there was a turnover that happened, and then
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: it completely swung the game in the other directions. So
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: green Bay definitely could have and maybe should have won
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: that game. Then they had the infamous game at Chicago
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: where I keep talking about this. Green Bay lost Jordan
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: Love and I'm pretty sure they lost Malik Willis in
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: the game as well, so they were down to a
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: third string quarterback in the game. Green Bay was still
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: winning the game sixteen to six with a couple of
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: minutes left in the game, and Chicago had to score
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: recover an onside kick score Again, green Bay had to
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: stall out an offense because they had of course, Jordan
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Love was out of the game, et cetera. Then green
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Bay was driving an overtime in Chicago's territory after all that,
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: after Chicago had basically fluked their way to its eye
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: by recovering an on side kick, green Bay was in
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: Chicago territory about to take the lead to begin overtime,
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: and they fumbled the ball over with a combination of
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: a backup center and a backup QB. Like green Bay
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: absolutely had that game in hand, man, green Bay was
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: the better team in the game. They were the favorite
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: in the game. The game was pretty much over. Green
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: Bay's deepfense totally stifled Chicago in that game, and green
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: Bay did beat Chicago at home as well, though I
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: know the Bears were driving to try to tie the
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: game late in the game. They threw an interception in
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: the end zone right at the end of the game. Whatever,
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: But green Bay was a six and a half point
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: favorite in that game. There were only about a I
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: think they were about a one point favorite in the
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: game against Chicago. So they're pretty much the same line here.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: So the line is basically what it was in the
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: other game at Chicago. But I told you at the
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: time when that game happened, I thought the line was short.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: I think Green Bay should actually realistically be a favor
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: by about a field goal in this game.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: That's what the power ratings say.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: But back to what I'm talking about here, Green Bay
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: could have won the game at Denver, they should have
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: won the game at Chicago, but they lost their quarterbacks whatever,
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: so you can explain those losses. Then of course, the
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: next game we had Baltimore in the game was Baltimore
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: absolutely needed the game to stay alive in the playoff hunt,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: and that was of course Green Bay with a backup
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: quarterback the leak will was so that was technically the
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: injured player theory spot, but it was also the injured
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: player theory spot for Baltimore in the game with Tyler
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Huntley coming in there, and I think he did a
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: better job than Lamar Jackson did down the stretch to
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: that evened out. And yeah, Green Bay was just caught
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: in a bad position, man, because they had a backup
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: QB going and then he went out of the game too,
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: so they had to use Clayton tune again. And then
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: why would anybody care that Green Bay lost their last
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: game at Minnesota. Green Bay rested everybody in the game
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota, so people were like, oh, green Bay lost
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: four games in a row. Well, I just told you
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: they probably should have won the first two of them.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: They lost two quarterbacks, and then I explained why they
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: lost the last two. You know, one of them was
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: without their quarterback, and then the other one was the
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: game where they rested everybody. So how much weight are
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: you supposed to put into those losses? I just explained
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: why you shouldn't put that much weight into them. So
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: I like all this for green Bay.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Man. The one concern that I see with Green Bay
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: here is the Jordan Love hasn't played for a while.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: He hasn't played since that Chicago game, so he hasn't
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: played since December twentieth. That is a little bit of
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: a concern that Love might come into this game rusty.
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: So you might worry that maybe Chicago will will look
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: like good like early on in the game. But that's
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: why we're gonna go a full game here as well,
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: because I think once Jordan Love gets back out there
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: and he's playing, you know, I think it's gonna be
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: better for him. Once he gets going, he'll be he'll
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: be he'll be back into the swing of things, man like.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: It might take like a quarter, but I expect Green
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: Bay to overcome that and win the game when it
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: all comes down to it. I believe it is gonna
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: be a cold game. It's gonna be at night. It
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: is I think potentially gonna be snow. Yeah, thirty five
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: degrees though, so it's not actually freezing, but it looks
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: like it might be snowing, but the snow might not
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: stick when.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: It's thirty five. Of course, it's Green Bay in Chicago.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: Both teams are kind of used to it, but Jordan
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: Love has got to be the quarterback who's more used
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: to it, right, because Caleb Williams hasn't played in a
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: playoff game, and and he's mister USC, So how experienced
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: is he playing in gold weather conditions like this? He's
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: not that experienced with it, man. Jordan Love is the
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: more experienced quarterback with both playing in elements like this
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: and in playing in the playoffs.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: And that's a huge deal. So this is one of
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: the games.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: Where we have a and I should have mentioned this
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: in the other game too, because it applies to both games.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: When you have a quarterback who's playing in his first
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: playoff game, which is the case with both Bryce Young
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: today and Caleb Williams, and they're playing up against a guy,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: an experienced quarterback who's played in the playoffs before. And
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know if this becomes more extreme if the
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: quarterback is multiple playoffs starts, because obviously that is the
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: case with both Stafford and Love, they've made multiple playoff
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: starts in their careers. Stafford obviously has a Super Bowl win,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: and so does McVeigh of course for La there, but
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: with either case, there is like like these first I
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: think just generally quarterbacks in their first playoff game that
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: don't do well, they're like twenty and forty straight up
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: or something like that in the last sixty games. And
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: I think it gets a little bit worse against when
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: it's against the spread, although of course Chicago's a slight
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: underdog here, but I think against the spread, it's like,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know, like they they're only like thirty five
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: percent I think against the spread. But it's also worse
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: when it's a first time QB against I think a
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: quarterback that's had multiple multiple playoff games. I think the
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: experienced quarterback in those cases have won like fourteen out
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: of the last fifteen games or something like that, so
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: experience does definitely matter in the playoffs, man, And this
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: is I think the most lopsided.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't know if it's the most lopsided of
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: the experience battles.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: Of course, Stafford as a shit ton, so this one
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: is probably more lopsided. Really, But this one because the
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: weather might be in effect as well, and I think
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: Chicago might I mean, you know, Williams might be adversely
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: affected by the weather in this one.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: I think that might add to that problem.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: Whereas, by the way, the Carol Lining game I don't
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: think is gonna be much of a weather concern here.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be seventy two degrees, although it looks like
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: there might be lightning during the game. There might be
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: a little bit of rain. Rain I don't think is
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: a big deal. By the way, even though rain is
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: gonna knock the total down a little bit. So sometimes
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: when there's rain, the total over adjustment. In that Carol
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: Lining game, I don't think it really over adjusted rain.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: Like I said, the offenses usually do fine in rain. Still,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: it's actually wind that you need to be worried about.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: That affects offenses.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: Wind and heavy snow affect offenses, but light snow and rain,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: not really it Actually those actually cause the defense to
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: kind of slip on the surface where the offense they
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: know what route they're running, you know what I mean.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: So it actually helps the offense. And this applies to
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: the light snow that might happen in this game. The
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: offense might have a little bit of an advantage because
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: of it, where the defense doesn't know what the route
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: is gonna be, so they might slip more often because
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: they don't know how to react to it. But you know,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: I guess we're talking total now, so I guess I'll
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: mention the total fifty three percent of the ticket, sixty
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: seven percent of the cash on the over. In this one,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: the total did drop from forty six and a half
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: to forty four and a half. And I think maybe
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: some of that money coming in on the over is
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: because they think that over adjusted because of the snow,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: and I wouldn't disagree. I think the total may be
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: over adjusted a little bit just because of the snow.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be light snow.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: I don't really think it's gonna affect the offense as
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: much in this game, so I would agree with that.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: But I think if you like the Packers you probably
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: like the under as well, though, So it's those things
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: kind of conflict with each other because obviously, if you,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: I think, if you like the Packers because they're the
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: better deepfense, I think the under makes more sense, whereas
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: Bears is kind of coral.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: Bears are kind of correlated to an over here.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: So just some thoughts on the total there, which are
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: conflicting thoughts here. But obviously I like the side. We're
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: gonna go with Green Bay here. Let's it's Jordan Love
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: time baby, and Jordan Love. He's not gonna be intimidated, man.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, we saw what he did. I think in
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: his first playoff game he won in an upset at Dallas,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: so he is playoff road tested. And then remember they
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: almost beat San Francisco on the road in a game
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: which I think was against San Francisco is like the
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: best team in the NFC that year. So Jordan Love
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: is road tested in the playoffs, man, So let's get it.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Let's get Jordan Love playoff Jordan Love. Man.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: Maybe he's like Eli Manning where he just doesn't look
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: good in the in the regular season, but then he
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: just comes out and plays really well.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: In the playoffs.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: Even though I know they didn't win the Super Bowl
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: or anything like that, but let's get it, man, I
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: think green Bay gets the game. They're the better team.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: Everything else is just noise whatever. We're fading the public
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: with it as well. Green Bay is the play and
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do it.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: Once again, all my players. Today we had a ton
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: of college basketball. We're laying the points of the NC
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: State and by the way I looked this morning, and
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: actually let's do the final market read on this.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Most of these games didn't move, by the way.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: So from what I saw to see NC State, this
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: did move a little bit, by the way. But the
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: money looks like it kind of is coming back on
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: NC State now, even though they kind of look like
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: a public side. So we're laying it with NC State.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: We're taking the points with LSU. That looks good as well.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: The public is fading Vandy and this week you get
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a better line on this one. Now,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: by the way, the public, excuse me, the public is
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: on Vandy and less of the money is on them,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: so the market read lines up with my thoughts on
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: that game. We're on Xavier plus the one and I
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: have looks like, you can get a better number on
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: that too. The money's coming in on Providence in that one,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: which I don't get at all. I think the spot
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: is abysmal for Providence in that game, So I have
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: no clue why the market is going against us there.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: But you can get a better number on Providence there.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: I excuse me.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: On Xavier there, I like Xavier in that one. Georgetown
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: plus the Points is another play that we have money
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: is coming in a Georgetown. It looks like the market
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: does agree with me on that one, So I like
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: seeing the market agreement with me. Man, And that line
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: is about the same as where it was last night.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: Houston Christian plus the points. Don't really see a market
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: read on this yetle though the line did go down slightly,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: so percentages are not showing yet. Colorado plus the Points,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: we don't really see the percentages on this yet. The
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: line did drop slightly. Cal State Northridge plus the one.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: Some of these late games might not really have the
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: market fully fleshed out here.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: Actually, Fullerton is.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: Up to almost a three point favorite now, so you
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: can get a better number on Northridge now, So I
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: might track it at that, man, Because sometimes a lot
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: of times the way that I play it. Because you're
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: fading the public, you might want to wait. But the
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: thing is, like some of these smaller games, you don't
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: necessarily want to wait because the professional money comes in
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: and hammers it, and then it's tough to gauge which
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: way the line is gonna go. Like the professional money
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: that comes in might disagree with me. The professional money
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: might come in and actually be a setup going, you know,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: against where my play is. So it's very hard to
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: predict where some of these lines are gonna go, even
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: though I know that's part of the job, but I'm
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: not that good at a San Jose State is absolutely
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: getting the money in this one against Grand Canyon.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: You can get a better number on that too. Wyoming.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: Plus the points that one the market read is against
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: me with the cash percentage on Nevada, I don't get it.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know why. And that's gonna do it, man.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: So those are all the basketball plays.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: Then once again we have the Vancouver Cannuck split pet
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: partially on the puck line, partially on the money line,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: and we have the Green Bay Packers minus one and
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: a half in the NFL playoffs. That's gonna do it. Kyle,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: what's up? Yes, thank you, sir, Sierra, Yes, thank you, guys.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna update some of these numbers here because you
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: can get the better numbers now, so maybe we'll track
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: them that way. Because those overnight shows, it kind of
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: just makes sense to not lock the bets in yet overnight.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: I would say, I usually like to do it in
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: the morning. It's just I do the show overnight just
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: because there's just too much to do. So that's gonna
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: do it. I appreciate it. Enjoy all the games today, guys.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: Indiana looked really good last night, but maybe too good.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: So we'll talk about that on Monday when the championship
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: game comes up. So yeah, I know, I already posted
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: the first five of them. I have the next four
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: ready to go, and then I only have to record.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: I'm doing it.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: They're short today though, I only have to record the
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: two that I gave out here, the NHL and the
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: NFL ones I haven't recorded yet. That's gonna do it,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: peace everybody. Oh and right, learn it tone on Instagram,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: learned toe on Twitter? Of course, you know, give me
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: a follow, subscribe et cetera. Like, subscribe to the channel here,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: give me good replies. We're on an audio give me
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: a good review.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Over there on Apple and Spotify and listen over there.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: That helps as well. Covered in you because my yuke
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: channel on YouTube. You can check that out Patreon, dot com,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: slash and learn to Toe if you want to throw
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: me some support and get some bonus yuke content. I know, Charles,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: I know you have a couple other ones I'm gonna do.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: Probably I'll do a Toad the Wet Sprocket song.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: I just have to.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know them that well, even though I grew
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: up while they were a thing. I'll figure out what
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: some song or theirs to do for you. But I
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: got to do a song for one of the other
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: guys first, so I'm gonna probably have to do that
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: one first. I gotta get that stuff done, I know.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: And then Loser Cast of course go check that out
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: the comedy podcast that I'm on, and that will do it.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: Peace until tomorrow, and.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, finally we don't But finally we don't have an
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: NFL show on Saturday night, so finally I don't have
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: to do anything on Saturday night. There we go because
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: we only have to talk about three playoff games tomorrow,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: so I can do it in the morning. Yes, that's it,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: all right, Peace everybody,