Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / 🚨SILVER Stackers!🚨 ALERT - THIS is Next to Happen

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🚨SILVER Stackers!🚨 ALERT - THIS is Next to Happen · SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics

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Silver and gold investors have much to be excited about when it
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comes to the future. There's big reasons why we can
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have big optimism as we head into 2025, but there's also some
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warnings. Today we have a special guest,
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Oren from The Silver Hermit, and he's going to talk to us about
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2025 that we feel right now. Maybe we're in like a honeymoon
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period with Donald Trump, but 2025 could bring in some
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economic challenges to the United States.
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But that could also mean supportive factors coming into
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play for the silver and gold market.
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Oren, let's pull you up on the screen.
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Welcome to Ron's basement. Hello, thanks.
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Thanks for having me. Well, you've, you've, you've
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been on the show. We just realized that your one
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year anniversary, if we look back to one year ago, Oren, and
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I guess if if we were properly prepared, we'd have this data,
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but I think it's safe to say that one year ago the silver and
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gold price were significantly lower than where they are today.
1:02
Exactly. Yeah.
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And we were and we were on that live stream telling people, hey,
1:06
we think silver and gold are going to go higher.
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Do you think is a year from now we'll see higher silver and gold
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prices? I, I'm quite positive, yes, I.
1:17
Yeah, yeah. Well, hey, let's let's dig in.
1:20
I want to talk about some big news that's coming out about
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China. There's reports coming out that
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we have the Chinese central bank buying gold.
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Again, I just want to touch on this, and then we're going to
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get in to Oren's analysis of what we can see in 2025 from an
1:38
economic perspective. But Eric Young put out this
1:41
tweet. The Chinese central bank just
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secretly bought 60 tons of gold. And we've got another piece of
1:50
information here from Jan Newenhaus saying that the
1:53
Chinese central bank secretly bought 60 tons of gold.
1:55
The P Bock is covertly buying very large amounts of gold,
2:00
adding upward pressure to a tense gold market.
2:03
An explosive cocktail of Western institutional investors and
2:07
central banks in the East buying gold this year is making the
2:11
gold price rise sharply. Interest rate cuts and
2:15
geopolitical strain will sustain this bull market.
2:18
This was originally reported on an article on Money Metals and I
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saw this morning that Vince Lancy at Arcadia was talking
2:28
about this as well. Apparently the Chinese central
2:31
bank is back in the game buying gold, which can only be good for
2:34
the gold price. Any thoughts on when you hear
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news like that? Oren well. 1st, it's not
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surprising. We were kind of expecting the
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PBOC to take advantage of every pullback, and we see them do
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that as a good stacker should do.
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They're being very rational about it.
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And also I want to point out that we don't exactly know what
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is going inside China. They probably have multiple
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channels of acquiring gold and perhaps silver as well.
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And and I don't think they're letting us know exactly what
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what they're doing. They're being very secretive
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about it. Interesting.
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Interesting. Yeah, it'll be, it'll be fun to
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see how this plays out as we go into 2025.
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I mean, look, I always like to say the world central banks are
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buying gold. These are the most in the know.
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These are the insiders. These are the most sophisticated
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people in the financial world. So the fact that they're buying
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gold and now we know that Russia is possibly even going to start
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tipping their toe into the silver pool as well, can only be
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a good thing for the silver and gold price.
3:49
What about I want to shift gears to Bitcoin now because there's
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some people on the gold. And silver.
3:59
We're going to go into the paint there.
4:00
I will go into the paint there's there's a wide variety of
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opinions regarding Bitcoin. Obviously, Bitcoin has been on
4:06
this crazy price tear ever since Donald Trump was elected
4:10
president. A lot of people in the gold and
4:12
silver community don't like Bitcoin.
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Some people that are in the gold and silver community also own
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crypto. I do want to point out that I
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firmly believe that there's a lot of shared beliefs between
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the crypto community and the gold and silver community.
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But Ronnie Stofferly put out a tweet that I thought was
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something I'd never thought of when it comes to Bitcoin that's
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actually good for the gold and silver market.
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And I want to get your comments on this also Oren, this is from
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in gold we trust and just want to read this about Bitcoin said.
4:48
However, the fact that gold has gained new competition in the
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universe, in the universe of non inflationary assets need not be
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detrimental to gold. In line with the motto
5:01
competition is good for business.
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It is quite conceivable that a critical examination of the
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unsustainability of the current monetary system could lead more
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and more investors to realize that from a portfolio
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perspective, a combined investment in gold and Bitcoin
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is superior to the respective individual investments on a risk
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adjusted basis basis. For years our credo has been
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gold for stability, Bitcoin for convexity.
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And as I read that, what I'm, what I'm hearing him say is that
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the fact that we have competition within the
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alternative asset. I'm really, I hesitate to call
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gold or silver an alternative asset, but that we have that
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competition is actually good because it's it is waking up
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more people to the idea that you may want to invest in non
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inflationary type assets. Well, I don't buy that.
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I'm, I'm very sorry, but you know, I, I always had the, a
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negative opinion of Bitcoin. I, I always thought that that it
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is a competition to sound money and that it is not truly sound
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money and that it's sort of a gateway drug towards, you know,
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CBDC's and other things that we wouldn't like to see.
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And I think that there is something very dark behind
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Bitcoin now for those who invested in Bitcoin and like and
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made like bandits and, and you know, made a lot of money and
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well, congratulations to them. I just hope that they're doing
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the right thing and selling some of it and realizing some of
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their profit and converting them to real assets, to tangible
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assets such as gold, such as silver, but also real estate,
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etcetera. And I think that was that's the
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best thing to do. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
6:55
Well, and Speaking of real assets and people who are fans
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of real assets, I think this next story is the biggest story
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of the week for the precious metal sector.
7:06
And it's getting some coverage, but I don't think enough
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coverage. And that has to do with the
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nominee, nominee that Donald Trump has put in place to become
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the next Treasury Secretary of the United States.
7:19
His name is Scott Ascent, and what?
7:22
And he would be the fifth person in line of secession to the
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president. But that's not the important
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thing. The important thing to me is
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that this man has #1 he's a billionaire and #2 just a few
7:35
weeks ago he was on a podcast and he mentioned that gold was
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his biggest position in that he follows gold very closely.
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I want to reiterate that this is the next Treasury Secretary of
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the United States. Have you heard the story, Oren,
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and do you have any thoughts on on how that is developing and
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what that might mean for the gold and silver market?
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Well, first of all, yes, I've heard and, and again, I'm, I'm
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not so enthusiastic because we see this tendency of people once
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they, you know, they enter the federal government, they, they,
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they change their mind. They tend to change their mind
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as soon as they, they see how matters are going from within.
8:19
And they realized, for instance, that for the United States to go
8:23
on a gold standard, that would be extremely painful.
8:26
It would be extremely deflationary and it would really
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tie the hands of the federal government.
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They will no longer be able to print the US dollar.
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It will, and they will have to balance the budget.
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And there are lots of of consequences to going on a gold
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standard which the current even the Trump administration will
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will not be enthusiastic of adopting.
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So much like Alan Greenspan, who you know, who used to be a
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libertarian, who used to be to, you know, to follow Iran and and
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he became fed chair and he abandoned all his beliefs
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because he was within the system.
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And I'm afraid that this is what's what's going to happen
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again, once you're in the system and the system takes over you,
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it's it's almost inevitable. Yeah, yeah.
9:18
I did find it interesting though that he at one point is his was
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aligned with George Soros Here's ACNN article huge relief CEO's
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exile after Trump taps got the sent to lead the treasury.
9:33
But there was something here it is right here percent.
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He's 62 has worked with some of the most renowned investors in
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the world including Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos and Stanley
9:43
Druckenmiller. And when I look at that list and
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I think about gold and silver. I know Jim Rogers is a big big
9:51
proponent of gold and silver for that matter.
9:54
And I know that there's reports that Stanley Druckenmiller
9:57
recently has spoken also very positive about gold and silver
10:02
and if I remember correctly own some pretty big positions in
10:06
some of the big mining companies as well.
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So, you know, I, I do think that I, I understand what you're
10:13
saying, right? Like these people, they, they
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start out one way and then they get into the government.
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They kind of get sucked into the system.
10:20
But you know, Oren, I want to play this quote.
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I, I played it in video yesterday, but I'm going to play
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it for our live viewers today where we have Scott percent.
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OK, here he is the make sure I've got that on the screen
10:33
here, which I don't. Here's Scott percent in an
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interview from not three years ago, not three months ago, but
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literally 3 weeks ago. He was on this podcast called
10:46
the Macro maven. And I want to play a little 15
10:50
second clip here where he refers to gold.
10:53
He's talking about China and then he quickly shifts into
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speaking about gold and and to me, you know, this guy's a
11:00
billionaire. He's got a lot of money
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invested, but he specifically says that gold is his biggest
11:06
position. I'm going to play say that for
11:07
us right now, capitalism with Chinese characteristics, for
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communism with capitalist characteristics.
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He's a Leninist, so he's not going to allow me to clear any
11:17
function in the market that would allow for a sustainable
11:22
Chinese economy. Then I think we are in a long
11:26
term bull market in gold. I think we're seeing reserve
11:30
accumulation by central banks. I follow it closely.
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It's my biggest position. And even I was surprised the
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other day when the Central Bank of Poland came out and said that
11:41
they want to take their gold reserves 20%.
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And yet, OK, so, so he, he just said that he follows gold very
11:50
closely. It's his biggest position.
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He said something else as well. He talked about the Central Bank
11:56
of Poland. This is our next Treasury
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Secretary, you know, and he's a billionaire.
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So I don't know. You know, I know there's
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different opinions about how this could all play out.
12:07
And then I thought it was interesting that when Donald
12:09
Trump announced him, he said that he would and I'm and I'm
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reading way too much into this, but Donald Trump said that that
12:15
Scott percent would usher in a new golden age for the United
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States, which is just a a term of speech.
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But you never know, Oren, right? I mean, it beats having an
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incoming Treasury Secretary that doesn't like gold.
12:27
I think the fact that this guy is is is invested in gold as of
12:33
three weeks ago is his largest position is a is A, to me a very
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optimistic sign. Yeah, it sounds good, but
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there's a huge difference between what you do on your
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personal portfolio and, you know, the policy that you adopt
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for the for the United States, because it's it's simply not the
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same thing for the United States.
12:54
For the federal government to adopt gold would mean that it
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would need to tie its own hands willingly.
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And this is something I, you know, just not long ago, Donald
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Trump said that he will not give up the dollar's position as the
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global reserve currency. You will even force countries to
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use the dollar by hook or by crook.
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And, and this is not the the policy of someone who is, you
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know, in favor of sound money When when your currency is tied
13:32
to gold, when you are on a gold standard, you don't need to
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force people to use it. They use it because it's good
13:38
money. It preserves its purchasing
13:40
power. Yeah, what about what about this
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idea? What about meeting halfway?
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Because I keep hearing you say, well, going to a gold gold
13:49
standard and I and I don't think that we're going to go to the,
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you know, traditional gold standard in our country.
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But what about somewhere in the middle?
13:56
Because are you familiar with Judy Shelton and, and she was a
14:00
trumpet tried to get her on under the Fed Reserve during
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this last term as president. She's a huge gold proponent and
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she's talking about this idea of gold backed treasury bonds.
14:13
Is there a hybrid in the middle where we could see some form of
14:17
a backing of the US dollar? Maybe not this full blown gold
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standard, which I think you know, most people think is is a
14:26
is a rather far fetched idea, but is there somewhere,
14:28
somewhere in the middle that that could happen?
14:30
Well, first of all I need to read the full, you know, the
14:33
details of this proposal. I tried to look it up today and
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I couldn't find the exact details.
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I need to give it some more thought to to to figure out what
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kind of impact it will have on the market as a whole.
14:48
But look on, on the face of it, like if you ask me what I would
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rather have a, a gold bullion or a a convertible bond, I would
15:00
rather have the the real thing rather than the bond.
15:03
Because perhaps the United States is going to, you know,
15:05
meet its obligations, including converting it to gold and
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perhaps it's going to renege on its obligations.
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We don't know for sure. The only thing which is certain
15:16
if if the gold which you have in your hand is, is real gold, it's
15:22
genuine, then and if you, you know, take the the correct
15:27
actions to protect it, then you know you're, you have a level of
15:31
security which is unparalleled. Yeah.
15:34
So, so next I want to get into with you your thoughts on what
15:39
we could see coming in the next year that you have some strong
15:42
you you've been reading newspapers, I understand Oren
15:45
from six months in the future. So you you're going to be able
15:48
to predict for us what what we can expect in six months and
15:51
maybe how that relates to gold and silver.
15:54
But I want to get your opinion on one more thing and that is
15:58
what I'll call asset backed digital currencies.
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I, I reported yesterday about Wisdom Tree, which is a moderate
16:05
large size financial institution here in the United States and,
16:09
and they have a, like a new program where you can, you, you
16:14
can digital gold basically, but it's back to 100% buy gold in
16:18
vaults again. You're not holding it in your
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hand, but it is back to 100%. It's in vaults.
16:24
You can use a Visa debit card to spend gold and silver.
16:27
What are your thoughts on that on those types of arrangements?
16:31
Well, I'm open to such suggestions and I'm open to such
16:35
programs because what they do they, they make gold and silver
16:41
more easily, you know, transferable and you can, you
16:46
can conduct commerce more easily.
16:49
So perhaps it's, it's a good thing.
16:51
Like I wouldn't take all my gold and silver and put it into such
16:55
a token, but perhaps a small part of your allocation.
17:03
You can use such a program because it allows you to.
17:07
Pay your bills. Yeah.
17:09
Yeah, and. It, it's, it's a, it's a
17:12
positive development in my eyes, but still telling people keep
17:18
most of your position in, in physical gold, you know, in your
17:22
grubby hands. Right because you you know when
17:26
you when you come over later today, we can't take this in my
17:30
neighborhood and go buy lunch. It's going to be very difficult.
17:32
We'll have to go to a coin shop, convert it by.
17:35
So if these electronic solutions work.
17:39
But I think there's a couple critical key things that need to
17:41
be in place #1 the metal has to actually be there, right?
17:45
It has to be audited. It has to be regulated to a
17:49
certain degree. We want to make sure that that
17:52
metal is actually in the vault. It it also won't prohibit.
17:56
And I love the way you say that. I appreciate you saying it
17:58
won't. It won't prohibit you or me from
18:01
continuing to stack physical metal, right?
18:04
I mean, we would want to still have our physical metal, but it
18:09
would also allow people to use silver and gold to protect their
18:14
cash that they would usually use for for their everyday
18:17
transactions to protect it from the ravages of inflation.
18:22
But I think the other thing that doesn't get enough, enough
18:26
attention on this whole subject matter is the fact that if, if
18:29
these solutions were were to gain popular adoption, it would
18:35
create a massive new demand source for silver and gold as
18:39
well. And again, it's not going to
18:41
prohibit Oren or Ron or or or our viewer who's with us today
18:45
from continuing to hold silver and gold in their possession.
18:48
Look, I've got to tell you a couple of years ago I did the
18:52
research because they are out there a gold backed or
18:56
supposedly gold backed cryptocurrencies.
19:01
And I started looking, you know, into the fine print and, and to
19:05
my horror, I discovered that most of them and there are
19:09
several are not really backed by physical gold in the sense that
19:15
the way they did it is that they leased gold from the LBMA
19:20
without actually holding it. They didn't have their own
19:24
vault. And when they said that it was
19:27
audited, they got, you know, a piece of paper from the LBMA
19:31
that it was audited. But no one has seen from, you
19:37
know, the, the issuer of the token, no one has seen the
19:40
physical gold with, with his own eyes.
19:43
So it seemed to be to me to be like a bit fraudulent.
19:49
I want to be careful. I don't want to, I don't want to
19:52
accuse anyone of a crime, but it didn't satisfy my standard for
19:57
true gold backing. Now, I'm not familiar with the
20:00
new program which you mentioned. And it could be, you know, like
20:06
the real deal, the the the real thing if they if it is really
20:10
backed by gold that they own, which is in their vault and they
20:15
have full control of it. But I wouldn't like to have.
20:20
A token which is backed by gold which is in the LBMA and perhaps
20:25
exists and perhaps doesn't exist.
20:27
It doesn't satisfy me. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
20:30
Nope. I know Little Red.
20:31
It seems like every time I've looked into these things, and I
20:33
would say thank you, Silver Surfer, for the Super chat.
20:36
Appreciate that every time I've looked into these tokenized I I
20:41
know what you're saying. I've I'll just put it this way.
20:44
I've yet to myself transfer any of my money into any of those
20:48
solutions because I'm just but when there is a point where a
20:52
guy like Oren and a guy like Ron, right and you know, we're
20:56
we're pretty skeptical. We're not just going to buy off
20:59
where we say, OK, I trust this, this works.
21:03
And it really then those one of those solutions, whatever it may
21:06
be, does gain popular adoption that it could be a very good
21:12
thing for the silver and gold market.
21:14
Now in the interim, Oren, we're going to talk about your view
21:17
into the future next. But I do want to say thank you
21:19
to channel sponsor pin backs. And when we're out here, I want
21:22
to do an update on the gold and silver price.
21:25
Let me make sure we've got us on the right screen.
21:28
I do. So I'm going to press the pin
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backs magic button. Looks like yesterday we had gold
21:33
at 2626 and today, hey, we're 2644.
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So we're up a little bit today. Warren Silver's taken a bit of a
21:41
of a hit on the chin, but the day is young.
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Now, Oren, 2025 is around the corner.
22:37
You put out a piece not too long ago that maybe we're living in a
22:40
little bit of a fantasy land right now.
22:43
This post Donald Trump election glow.
22:46
Some people have called it a honeymoon phase.
22:48
You want to share with us your thoughts on where we might be
22:50
heading as we go into 2025? Well, I will begin by saying
22:54
that I'm happy that Donald Trump got elected.
22:57
I think he has the potential to restore sanity to the world.
23:02
And in particular, I'm thinking about the escalation of the wars
23:08
both in Ukraine and here in the Middle East.
23:10
And I'm really, you know, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that
23:14
he will be able to restore peace.
23:17
However, I'm kind of concerned that his supporters are
23:21
currently in a bit of a state of euphoria.
23:24
They're, you know, they're overjoyed by his victory And I,
23:29
I don't think there is thinking straight right now when it comes
23:33
to, to the economy and, you know.
23:36
Or Bitcoin. Or Bitcoin, But I'm sorry I had
23:39
to throw that in, yeah. They think that they can just,
23:42
you know, make all the problems disappear.
23:45
Inflation will go away and growth will come back, just, you
23:49
know, just by entering the Oval Office.
23:51
And, and I'm afraid that that is simply not the case.
23:54
I mean, like, with all due respect to Donald Trump, he
23:57
doesn't have a magic wand and he can't make all the trouble just
24:02
disappear. We need to understand that
24:04
America's financial trouble are the result of decades of of bad
24:11
policy and mistakes that have been made, and they cannot be
24:16
undone overnight. Of course, you're showing us the
24:20
debt, the national debt, which is mounting.
24:24
And we also have the fact that, you know, inflation, although
24:29
inflation is supposedly down, but it has already erupted.
24:33
We've already had like, this first wave of inflation, which
24:38
means that if the Federal Reserve tries to cut rates again
24:43
and start QE again, it can easily erupt again.
24:48
That's at least that's my view. The Federal Reserve is under the
24:52
impression that they've already defeated the inflation, and I
24:56
don't think so because, you know, once you let the inflation
25:00
genie out of the bottle, it is very difficult to get back in,
25:05
as the saying goes. Well, you, you took the words
25:07
out of my mouth because I was going to ask you.
25:09
Do you mean the cat is out of the bag, right?
25:11
Like it's, it's the ship has already sailed.
25:15
You know that, right? The money has been spent and now
25:18
it's time to pay the piper. The hens are the hens are coming
25:21
home to roost. I'll I'll zip it now.
25:24
Yeah. Well, you know, there's this
25:27
talk of having a long mask as the head of a Department of
25:33
Government efficiency, which is a very nice idea.
25:36
And he's talking about coming and cutting, I don't know, $2
25:40
trillion and, and balancing the budget and, and, you know, it
25:44
sounds great and, and it's like the the, the correct thing or
25:48
the admirable thing to do. But the problem is that right
25:52
now, a government spending is such a huge part of the GDP that
25:57
if you try to balance the budget, that's extremely
26:00
deflationary. I mean that that on its own can
26:04
put the United States in a state of recession.
26:07
Or if we enter a recession in the coming months, as I argue,
26:13
it could exacerbate the inflation.
26:15
So I'm I'm not sure that it's really going to happen.
26:19
And I'm afraid that's that's more hype than than reality.
26:24
I mean, like we could balance the budget and perhaps that's
26:27
the right thing to do. But but then it there will be
26:31
pain. It will cause a lot of pain.
26:33
Like somebody is not going to get their transfer payments.
26:37
Somebody's not going to get their Social Security or
26:40
Medicare or Medicare. Somebody's going to suffer as a
26:43
result of that. And right now, the Trump
26:47
supporters are not willing to to endure any kind of pain.
26:51
On the contrary, they're expecting good times to come
26:53
back. And, and I need to, like, burst
26:56
their bubble and tell them, if you want to reform the American
26:59
economy, it involves pain. It involves giving up some
27:03
things. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
27:05
And, and on top of it all, the cherry on top is we've got a
27:08
stock market that is at all time highs and I would call it a
27:13
bubble bubble. Some people, I've heard this
27:16
people speculation, I guess I'll qualify it as that, that they're
27:21
kind of setting Trump up here in that, you know, with the stock
27:25
market in particular. I mean, it is just at by any
27:29
metric, any measurement at bubble territory that 2025 could
27:34
be a year of, you know, everybody thought 2024 was the
27:38
year of uncertainty and including me and I was wrong.
27:41
OK, a year ago right now, I was saying buckle up, buttercup,
27:44
2024 is going to be crazy. We've got the Middle East, you
27:48
know, all this stuff, the election and there, you know,
27:50
there's going to be fire and floods and everything else.
27:53
In 2024. There were some events that
27:56
occurred, but I don't think it it measured up to what a lot of
27:59
people had expected. Maybe 2025 is a year where we're
28:04
going to hit, hit some, you know, some rough patches.
28:07
Yes. And you know, I'm sure that your
28:10
listeners have heard plenty of pundits arguing, oh, we're going
28:14
to have a recession. They've heard that at least 100
28:17
times. And and so we were suffering
28:20
from what I call recession, recession fatigue perhaps.
28:24
And, and you know, I, I'm very sorry to to be in that position.
28:29
I I really hate to rain on everybody's parade, but right
28:35
now I'm afraid there are signs that again, very dire science
28:40
that we are closely getting close to a recession and I want
28:45
to say more or less in the next six months.
28:49
Well, and, and, and, and then I want to get your charts.
28:52
But let's be real here, Oren, we are living in a fantasy world
28:56
right now from an economic, from a monetary perspective, right?
29:00
We had the, the US debt clock pulled up earlier.
29:03
I mean, at the end of the day, I love the saying and I think it's
29:07
one that everybody needs to, to, to, to examine and, and
29:10
internalize that mathematics shows no forgiveness on the
29:14
altar of truth, right? The 2 + 2 is always equal to and
29:19
when you look at the amount of debt we have, when you look at
29:22
how the deficit is continuing to grow, when you look at the fact
29:26
that we are now spending $1 trillion a year, OK, over the
29:30
weekend, we broke on the US debt clock above 1 trillion a year in
29:34
interest payments alone. And then like you said, right,
29:38
like I look, look, I'm all in favor of I live my life.
29:42
I imagine you do too, with a balanced budget.
29:44
I bet our viewer lives with it. We're forced to live with a
29:47
balanced budget. I'm all in favor of the United
29:49
States living with a balanced budget.
29:51
But Donald Trump is not a magician, right?
29:55
Donald Trump, like you said, does not have this magical wand.
29:59
If we're going to balance the budget, well, yeah, Well, then
30:01
that's going to be a big decrease in government spending.
30:04
And, and we all know that we live in this environment now.
30:07
We're government spending supports a big segment of the
30:10
economy. There's going to be pain.
30:12
I mean, is that is that, is that what we're potentially headed
30:16
for? Yeah, and I think that Donald
30:18
Trump himself, he doesn't believe in pain.
30:20
He believes in growing the pie. He believes he he said on
30:24
several occasions that he likes that, of course, as a as a real
30:27
estate developer, that is that that was very good to him
30:32
because he. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, Oren, I
30:35
got to throw this in and then I promise I won't interrupt you
30:38
again for the rest of the show. But Donald Trump loves real
30:42
estate, right? Real estate is a real asset,
30:45
right? What else is a real asset?
30:47
How about this, right? Is this a real asset?
30:50
Yes. And you're absolutely right.
30:52
Donald Trump is the king of debt and he and he loves to spend
30:56
money. If you look at his personal
30:58
life, if you look at his business background, if you look
31:01
at the last time he was president, to suddenly think,
31:05
and maybe we're wrong, but to suddenly think that he's going
31:08
to stop spending money racking up debt, right?
31:11
Like you, like you very, he likes to grow the pie, right?
31:15
And that's not making a political statement.
31:17
But we're not paid to be political analysts.
31:20
We're paid to be analyst of gold and silver.
31:23
At least that's my niche. And I think your focus as well.
31:26
And when we look at that, we got to look objectively at what we
31:29
can see coming. And, and now the floor is yours.
31:32
I will not interrupt you again. I want to say, by the way, there
31:36
was a time in which growing the pie was was a good policy.
31:39
It was a good idea because if you could, you know, like borrow
31:44
money and invest it and, you know, start new products and,
31:50
and you know, create jobs and, and increase the GDP so you
31:55
could make, you know, the debt smaller in comparison to the, to
31:59
the GDP, you would have a, a lower debt to GDP ratio.
32:05
And that was like the philosophy to grow out of debt.
32:09
And the United States was able to do that several times.
32:12
I just don't think it's possible right now because now we have
32:16
inflation and there is a, a danger that if you print about
32:23
your money or if the, the federal government starts
32:26
spending again, then it's, it's only going to going to
32:31
exacerbate the inflation and it's going to get out of control
32:35
and, and eventually the dollar is going to collapse.
32:39
And, and one more thing I want to say, you know, when you're a
32:43
company, a private company or, or a listed company and you take
32:48
on debt and you and you can't and you and you default on your
32:53
debt, what's, what's the worst thing that will happen?
32:56
So the company will go bust and the bank will erase the debt,
33:01
but you personally, you won't lose your assets, as you know,
33:06
as the owner of the company. But on the other hand, the
33:10
federal government cannot default on its debt.
33:13
Well, it can, but there's going to be consequences to that.
33:18
It's not going to, it's not going to remain, the dollar is
33:20
not going to remain the global reserve currency while the
33:24
federal government defaults on its debt.
33:27
And, you know, there's this saying that economists,
33:31
mainstream economists, they say that the US cannot default on
33:35
it's debt because the Federal Reserve can always bail it out
33:39
and print dollars and you know, and, and, and buy all the
33:44
treasuries, which no one else wants to buy.
33:46
But the problem with that is that, as we said, if the Fed
33:50
goes back to printing that exacerbates the inflation again,
33:54
it we can dollar perhaps going to collapse the dollar.
33:57
So any way you try to, like, move this, you end up with more
34:03
inflation. Yeah.
34:06
And This is why you're the one who's keep saying the Fed is in
34:09
a box. Yeah, that's exactly the thing.
34:14
You agree with me. the Fed is in a box and you know what?
34:17
And you know what's in the box or right?
34:21
Yeah, the toilet paper. Right.
34:23
You know. And I would take someone else
34:27
and put him in the box. The federal government is also
34:29
in the box together with Jerome Powell.
34:32
It's a big box and they're all in it.
34:35
Yeah. And then let me ask, let me ask
34:36
you this question because I've said like inflation will rule
34:41
the day. Like we were in this little
34:42
fantasy world from a gold and silver perspective over the last
34:46
two or three years where I think the Fed still had some potency
34:50
left to it, right. And, and the Fed was fighting
34:53
inflation and raising interest rates and and that was bad.
34:57
We had high inflation, but a but a but a tough market for gold
35:00
and silver. I think the cat's out of the
35:03
bag. The ship has sailed.
35:04
Now we're in an environment where if we get higher
35:07
inflation, gold and silver are too smart.
35:10
They realize like the feds done, the feds in a box, they can't,
35:14
they can't, that they don't have the potency that they once had.
35:18
And in that now we're in kind of a new paradigm or not a new
35:23
paradigm, we're in really, what is the truth behind gold and
35:26
silver, which is gold and silver perform well in an inflationary
35:31
environment? Does that does that make sense?
35:33
Just think about the progression of the narrative.
35:36
At first they said there's no inflation.
35:39
Then they said OK, inflation is transitory.
35:42
Then they said, OK, there's inflation, but we're going to
35:45
fight it. But now we're saying, OK,
35:48
there's inflation and we're not going to fight it.
35:51
They're not exactly saying that, but that's exactly what's
35:53
happening because inflation is still, although it has come
35:57
down, it's still above their target of 2% and they're
36:01
lowering rates again. OK.
36:04
They're cutting rates again. Because that's all they can do.
36:06
It's the only way the system survives right, is to have
36:09
negative real interest rates, to have inflation to inflate away
36:12
the debt. And the one and the one thing
36:15
Oren, I think, I think you and I can agree on this is amongst
36:18
other things, and I think our viewer would agree with us as
36:20
well, is the one thing we know for sure from the last 20 years
36:25
is don't listen to what the Fed says.
36:28
Because often what they say is either wrong or I might even say
36:34
they speculate. Could be a a stretch of the
36:36
truth, right? I mean, these guys aren't, these
36:39
guys don't really have a a track record of being accurate or
36:42
honest with the American public. Yeah, look at the price of gold
36:47
and it will tell you all you need to know about the Fed.
36:54
You want to look at some charts. All your listeners understand
36:57
this hint. I think, I think we just solved
37:00
the world's problems. Oren, do you want to look at
37:02
some charts? Oren, should we see?
37:04
All right, I'm going to pull up some.
37:05
Important for me, look, when I come and say such a thing as,
37:08
hey, I think we're, we're headed towards a recession and, and not
37:12
just, you know, sometimes in the distant future, but perhaps
37:17
quite in the near future. I'm not saying that just, you
37:21
know, I'm saying that based on on data, right?
37:24
So I need to show, although, you know, it looks kind of scary,
37:28
but I want to your listeners, they should know it's not as
37:32
scary or as complicated as it seems.
37:35
What we're seeing right now on the screen is simply the best,
37:40
the indicator that we have for a coming recession.
37:43
That's the only thing that they need to understand.
37:46
Now. I will, you know, explain it
37:48
just very briefly that this is called the yield curve.
37:52
And the yield curve simply is the difference between the
37:56
yields of two kinds of of Treasuries, Treasury bonds, the
38:01
difference between the long dated bond, the 10 year and
38:06
short term bonds, the the two year.
38:09
And normally this difference should be positive because if
38:15
you, if you're purchasing A10 year Treasury, you expect to
38:20
earn a higher yield because you have more risk more.
38:26
Duration Duration risk. Yeah, which is associated with
38:30
it. So you expect to earn more yield
38:32
on it. But as you can see every now and
38:37
then this different, it inverts, it becomes negative.
38:42
And historically such inversions, it's called a yield
38:47
curve. Inversion is associated with a
38:50
recession and almost without fail now the recession doesn't
38:57
arrive immediately after the yield curve inversion.
39:01
There's usually a time lag of up to two years.
39:04
And it's, you can see on the chart that I've highlighted in,
39:07
in, in pink, all the, all the inversions as, and as you can
39:12
see every like pink blip leads to this Gray line with the Gray
39:18
lines or the recessions, of course.
39:20
And you can see that after one comes the other.
39:25
And, and usually also notice that usually the recession comes
39:30
only after the inversion is over.
39:34
The yield curve returns to the positive region.
39:38
Now look what happened two years ago.
39:40
A couple of years ago, the yield curve again inverted.
39:43
It was a very deep and very long inversion, by the way.
39:47
And just this September it uninverted.
39:50
OK, so. Or can I, can I interrupt you
39:54
for a second? OK, I want to make sure I've got
39:57
this right. So this chart shows yield curve
39:59
inversion. It's the relationship.
40:02
Between A10 the interest rate on a 10 year bond and a two year
40:06
bond, which is what it says down here at the bottom.
40:09
Typically, if a if you're going to tie your money up for 10
40:12
years, you're going to get paid a higher interest rate, whether
40:15
you're doing a bond or ACD or whatever.
40:17
But when the yield and then as compared to a two year, you're
40:20
going to get a lower interest rate on A2 year.
40:23
When the interest rate when it, when the yield curve inverts,
40:26
that means that the interest rate that you get paid on a 10
40:29
year bond is less than what you're being paid on A2 year
40:33
bond, which doesn't make which doesn't make sense.
40:36
In the periods of time since 1980 that that happened, you
40:40
highlighted in pink here on this chart we go from 1980.
40:44
We can see that it in on the left here that the yield curve
40:48
has inverted -1% negative 2%. And every time that happened,
40:53
like you said, subsequent, just after it finished inverting, we
40:58
have these Gray sections which are our recessions.
41:02
And, and what you're saying now is on we go to the far right
41:05
side of this graph that, and I know that because right, like I
41:09
could go in a money market account, get 5% interest, you
41:14
know, for the last couple years, or go to my bank and get a one
41:17
year CD at 5%. But if you wanted to tie your
41:20
money up for 10 years, maybe you were only getting 4% or so that
41:25
you were getting paid more money for a shorter, for a shorter
41:29
duration, whether it be CD or, or treasury bond or whatever,
41:34
then you were getting on a long term.
41:36
And what you're saying is we're just now coming out of this
41:38
inversion. I wanted to make sure I had that
41:41
right and that our viewer was understanding this as well as I
41:44
think it can be a little people here yield curve inversion, and
41:47
they're like, oh, you know, it's like magic or something, but
41:50
it's really quite simple. Yeah, and, and people don't
41:54
really need to understand why it happens.
41:56
I'm not going to get into it. But The thing is, it's, it's
41:59
just very reliable. And, and this is where I, I
42:03
can't argue with this piece of data because it is so reliable.
42:07
So in two years ago, when I saw this inversion beginning, I, I,
42:13
I told my listeners, yeah, my readers, that hey, we're going
42:18
to have another recession. But two years have gone by and
42:21
that recession, that inversion, you know, kept going and you
42:27
know, no recession in in anywhere to to be seen.
42:31
So you know, it, it looked as though for for a while it looks
42:35
as though it it was meaningless or, or it missed this time.
42:39
But I think that now that we are uninverting and.
42:45
And that's when the recessions come, right?
42:47
Warren? Warren, Right.
42:49
If we look at this graph, the recessions come at some point
42:53
shortly. I mean, as I'm looking at all
42:54
these after the pink sections, that's when the recessions come.
42:58
But I think you're. Right.
43:00
I think we should take this very seriously.
43:02
Yeah. And but I do think if we look
43:04
back to the last recession, which was what, 2008, we've gone
43:08
a long time. You said it earlier, I think we
43:11
have recession fatigue here in the United States like
43:15
everybody's saying, but it just, it just seems to never happen.
43:20
But maybe, and I don't want to go too far down this path with
43:23
you, but maybe it's because we're in the final phases of
43:27
this period of time where the Fed is just doing everything and
43:31
anything they can, right? They, they did the, when we had
43:34
the banking crisis a year and a half ago, they did the BTFP
43:37
program. It's like, it's like they're,
43:40
it's like the car that has 400,000 miles on it and they're,
43:43
and they're throwing, you know, bubble gum and duct tape at this
43:46
thing just to keep the, the gas pedal down and keep it running.
43:51
Do you think that the longer it goes, the harder we fall, if
43:57
that makes sense? Possibly.
44:00
The length? Are we talking about the length
44:02
of the inversion? Yeah.
44:03
Well, I mean, the potential for a recession or even a depression
44:10
potentially. I mean, do you think that the
44:11
longer we stretch this out, we've avoided this, this
44:15
recession for so long that if we do get to a point where we do
44:18
have some type of economic turmoil that it could be more
44:22
severe because we've we've prolonged it?
44:25
I'd say it's more linked with the severity of the mistakes
44:29
that have been made during this past decade.
44:33
The fact that interest rates were so low that people took on
44:37
so much debt and, and you know, is some of it was taken in order
44:42
to for projects which are completely unprofitable.
44:46
So mistakes were made. And as you said earlier, we need
44:50
to pay the pipers sometime and I think we're close to that point.
44:55
Yes. So I went and started looking
44:58
for, you know, other evidence because I, I don't want to rely
45:02
on only on one indicator. I want other corroborating
45:06
indicators telling me. So I looked at the unemployment
45:10
rate and, you know, during times of growth, as you can see,
45:16
unemployment tends to gradually fall, and it hardly ever grows
45:24
on a sustained fashion except right before a recession.
45:29
And I mark those periods in, you know, those little pink arrows
45:33
that show you, shows you just how, you know, the unemployment,
45:39
the unemployment rate starts inching up.
45:42
Now we need to remember that unemployment is a lagging
45:47
indicator. And that's because corporations
45:51
are not eager to let go of their employees, which they've, you
45:56
know, they've spent time and money training them And they
46:00
only, you only see mass layoffs once a recession is officially
46:05
declared. So it's a lagging indicator.
46:08
But as you can see, in the beginning of 2023, the
46:14
unemployment rate bottomed and it has been inching upward ever
46:19
since. And it's kind of rounding up
46:23
right now. And I'm, I'm kind of concerned
46:28
that this is, you know, much like we've seen prior to
46:32
previous recessions. Yeah.
46:34
So, so let me, let me ask you a question.
46:37
The blue line on this graph is the unemployment rate.
46:41
So over here on the left, we see starts at zero, goes up to let's
46:44
say 7 1/2 percent. What you're, what we're seeing
46:48
in the unemployment rate throughout history is that just
46:52
before recessions, which are the Gray shaded areas, we tend to
46:57
have a bottoming in unemployment.
47:00
And then it just looks like there's a little period of time.
47:03
And I think you described this as you spoke where, where, where
47:06
unemployment kind of the rate kind of stagnates for a year,
47:11
year and a half, whatever. And then and then what we see is
47:16
this move up or a slow move up. And then boy, it just looks like
47:21
to me that like pretty much right after it starts to move up
47:25
is when we get hit with these big Gray sections, the nasty
47:29
recessions. And again, when I look at this
47:31
graph, I see that there's been a long period of time since we had
47:38
a recession that that it's just, you know, if you look back since
47:41
1950, like it looks like we're overdue for a recession.
47:47
Yes. Now we had a short and brief
47:50
recession in 2020, but in hindsight, you know, it wasn't
47:53
the big financial crisis that we were always warning about
47:56
because it was, you know, kind of man made.
47:59
It was artificial. So we had this, you know, spike
48:02
in the unemployment, but just as as rapidly as it went up, it, it
48:06
rapidly went back down when, you know, we started going back to
48:11
work. And but now you see how it is,
48:16
you know, it's not rapidly going up, it's just inching, inching
48:20
up. And, you know, I interpret this
48:23
as, you know, the companies who have to let go of employees
48:27
because things are not going well and they're doing it
48:30
reluctantly. But once an official recession
48:34
is declared, then you're going to see mass layoffs and, and
48:37
then only then the the rate of unemployment spikes really
48:42
shoots up and. That's what I that's what I was
48:46
gonna say. When I look at this graph, it's
48:48
like it starts to barely go up, but it doesn't shoot up until
48:51
you're actually in the recession.
48:53
Yeah, and if you're managing money, you can't wait until the
48:56
rate of unemployment shoots up. It's too late to do anything
48:59
about it. You're in the midst of a
49:01
recession. Yes, yes, interesting.
49:04
I'm gonna go back to, is this the next slide here?
49:08
OK, here we go. The final indicator I want to
49:11
show it's the Fed's funds rate, very simply the Fed's funds
49:15
rate. And we see that the Fed has a
49:18
very specific mode of operation in recent decades in which, you
49:26
know, during recessions they slash interest rates very
49:30
rapidly. And they in recent years they
49:32
kept it down for, for a long while.
49:36
And when they feel confident enough that things have
49:39
stabilized, they, they start, you know, increasing their,
49:43
their rate very gradually, quarter of a percent every time,
49:51
every meeting, for instance. And then you see that, you know,
49:55
at a certain point it plateaus. It remains constant for about a
50:00
year or two. But you see that every time that
50:03
the Fed starts cutting rates again, it usually happen,
50:08
happens right before a recession.
50:11
And as we all know, recently the Fed started cutting rates at
50:17
least at, at first by 50 basis points and, and this month by
50:22
another 25 basis points. And I'm, I'm thinking they're,
50:26
that they're seeing something that they're not telling us,
50:29
they're seeing something on the horizon.
50:33
Perhaps they have their indications that the economy is,
50:36
is getting weaker. And as far as I'm concerned,
50:39
this is another piece of evidence as we're probably
50:43
getting close to a recession. Yeah.
50:46
Well, I like to say, Oren, that the Fed is not going to come out
50:50
and say, hey, guys, we think we're heading into a recession,
50:53
right? It's a kind of like when I go to
50:55
my local bank, I'm not going to walk in the door and they're not
50:58
going to greet me and say, hey, you know, our portfolio of
51:02
treasuries and commercial real estate that is, is grossly
51:06
underwater. You might want to take your
51:07
money out of our bank, right? Like the feds going to say
51:10
everything's great, everything. And I mean, they're like they're
51:12
going to spend the most positive perspective on things, when in
51:17
reality, what we have to look at is what they're doing, which
51:22
over the last few meetings has been they're cutting rates,
51:25
which means, you know, and like you said earlier, they're
51:28
cutting rates in an inflationary environment and an environment
51:32
where they haven't won that the, the, the, you know, the war on
51:36
inflation. So I think it, you know, how do
51:40
you think this bodes for the silver price and the gold price
51:43
as we look out, let's say in the next year or two?
51:46
You know, there are analysts who argue that that gold has this
51:50
ability to, you know, foretell the future into the future and,
51:56
and the gold has done tremendously well in 2024.
52:02
It's gone up about 30%, perhaps a little less now that we've had
52:07
a correction. That's that's great performance
52:11
for an asset, which is, you know, basically there's very
52:15
little risk associated with it. And this could be like another
52:21
indication that, you know, gold sees the future inflation.
52:26
Yeah, it will come after we get into another recession and then
52:31
perhaps the Fed is going to try and inflate the bubble once
52:34
more. Perhaps gold is is predicting
52:37
that? Yeah, and, and, and and let's
52:40
me, you know, look in one hand. Oh, hold on.
52:44
In one hand, we can hold things like silver and gold, right,
52:47
Real assets. In the other hand, we can hold
52:50
things like this. And to me it's a, it's a, it's a
52:53
system of weights and measures, right?
52:55
You can hold dollars, you can hold EUR, you can hold, you can
52:59
put bit on my opinion, you can put cryptos in that pile as
53:02
well, right? But this we know is just going
53:05
to continually be rented, deflated, whatever, however you
53:12
want to say it. There's just no way around it.
53:14
And sure, you know, a little more silver, a little more gold
53:17
is going to be mined every year. A lot of silver is going to be
53:21
absorbed by industry. That's a whole different
53:23
subject. But at the end of the day, it
53:26
we're just in the system where when if you compare those two,
53:29
those two things, all this paper make believe that right crypto
53:35
to real money. I don't know.
53:37
To me, it's just, it's a, it's a no brainer.
53:39
But you know, I've been wrong in the past.
53:42
You know, it's a, it's a good opportunity to say, to give a
53:45
word of warning because, you know, in past recessions, not
53:50
always, but in some of them, we initially see a decline in the
53:56
price of gold and silver as everything else is falling as
54:00
well as, as, as the stock market is melting down.
54:03
And, you know, and, and as people are running with their
54:07
hair on fire, then the price of gold and silver tends to fall as
54:11
well. And the explanation for it, at
54:13
least the official explanation is that that there is a decline
54:17
in industrial demand. It's usually short lived because
54:23
usually after that decline, the Fed again starts cutting
54:28
interest rates, resumes QE, prints a bunch of money.
54:33
And you know, in the next recession they could print, you
54:36
know, the last recession they printed 5 trillion.
54:39
This time perhaps they'll, they'll print 10 trillion, who
54:41
knows? And and then investment demand
54:47
picks up and just like we've seen in 2020, the, the, the
54:52
initial decline was, was very short lived.
54:54
It was, it was like AVV shape and, and, and by summer, if I
55:01
recall correctly, gold was setting new highs, new all time
55:04
highs. And I will there be a decline in
55:09
the price of precious metals in the next recession?
55:12
I don't know because perhaps, well, I expect that there will
55:16
come a point in which the public will begin to pricing the future
55:21
inflation, will start to anticipate the moves of the Fed
55:26
and will, will perhaps even you know, buy gold and silver to
55:29
such an extent that we won't even get that initial drop.
55:33
I don't know. I have.
55:35
That's too much for me. I can't.
55:37
Well, right, but but I but I more.
55:38
Than my crystal ball can see. But but The thing is our
55:43
listeners, you know, they should be very careful.
55:46
I mean like there could be an initial decline.
55:50
They shouldn't be afraid of it. If anything they should look at
55:55
it as a a buying opportunity. Perhaps they can stack a little
55:59
more if they have some cash left, then perhaps it's, it's
56:04
actually a good idea to keep a little bit of cash just in case
56:08
you, you get that initial decline and you'll have you'll,
56:12
you'll have a buying opportunity and perhaps you'll be able to
56:15
stack some more for cheap. Because I haven't been able to
56:20
stack for cheap lately. Just yesterday, I, just, just
56:23
yesterday I participated in another auction and I bought me
56:27
some more silver, a bit more silver.
56:29
And you just don't want to know how much it cost me.
56:32
I had to pay 36 1/2 dollars per oz.
56:36
Wow, That was the cheapest silver I was able to get here in
56:40
Israel. And, and by the way, I, I, I, I,
56:43
I was, I tried to get another item and I offered $3636 per oz
56:53
for it. And someone came along and
56:56
outbid me and bought it for $38 per oz.
57:01
OK. So that's the effective price of
57:04
silver in Israel right now, probably because people are
57:07
paying it. That's what you're paying,
57:09
right? That's the price.
57:10
I would say that's the price. What's the price of silver in
57:12
China, right? If you go to the Shanghai Gold
57:15
Exchange, probably, probably 3334 and that's a physical
57:19
market. I want to circle back to
57:21
something you said and, and, and, and give my thoughts
57:25
because I agree with you. This whole notion that if we do
57:30
hit a recession that all the gold price is going to go down
57:32
to 1400 or 1800, whatever the case may be.
57:36
I, I, I think that we could very well be in a different
57:41
environment. And, and you alluded to this
57:44
when you were talking as well, that during the, I guess it was
57:48
the C19 situation. Yeah, Silver like like nose took
57:52
a nose dive, but then came straight back up.
57:56
And then I think the next example that we might want to
57:59
look at is what happened during the the little banking crisis
58:03
that occurred a year and a half ago with them in March of 2023.
58:07
We had an almost immediate response in the silver and gold
58:11
market. I mean, I don't know if you
58:12
remember, but silver was like almost impossible to get there
58:16
for a couple weeks and premiums on these, on American Silver
58:20
Eagles, people were paying $50. The spot price was 25 and people
58:26
were paying $4550 for American Silver Eagles.
58:29
So it almost feels like, again, not to over use the phrase, but
58:34
like the cat's out of the bag now, right?
58:36
Like in 2008, you know, it was a different situation back then
58:41
people, I think we're more the Fed and the, the, the fiscal
58:46
situation, the monetary situation was the US debt
58:50
situation was not good, but nowhere near as bad as it is
58:54
now. And it feels like there's so
58:56
many more people now that are aware of what's going on with
59:01
the, with the monetary and fiscal situation.
59:04
And on top of that, we've got just the whole world
59:07
geopolitical situation, which has shifted the whole notion
59:12
that central banks are buying gold that it feels like, you
59:17
know, and I could be dead wrong, right?
59:19
But it feels like we really are like the trend indicates and the
59:23
current evidence indicates that we we kind of are in a different
59:26
environment now when we're just, you know, honed in on the silver
59:31
price and gold price and the prospect of, I mean, at some
59:34
point it all blows, right? I mean, at some point, Oren,
59:37
would you say like the whole thing blows, You know, like the
59:40
dollar, Like it's, it's that wake up because it's all based
59:44
on confidence, right? This this, this Oren right was a
59:49
silver certificate right back in the day.
59:51
You can see at the top right, this is a Federal Reserve note,
59:55
as you know, and it's all based on confidence.
59:58
And at the point when you know a growing number of people to to
1:00:04
A, to A, to A, to A to a greater extent start to realize like,
1:00:09
oh. You know, like my mom and dad or
1:00:12
my neighbors who think I'm crazy because I like silver, gold, But
1:00:16
when they're like, oh, now it makes sense, right?
1:00:19
These dollars, you know, things, groceries are, you know, that
1:00:22
that we could get to this, this point where there could be a
1:00:26
major sea change. And I don't know, I just when I,
1:00:30
when I look out into the next year, five years, I'm, I'm
1:00:34
wildly optimistic. I don't say optimistic, but I am
1:00:38
wildly a wildly optimistic but very comfortable with with
1:00:44
silver and gold's ability to protect mine and other people's
1:00:48
safety, wealth, ability to eat, pay electric bills, all that
1:00:53
good stuff. Look, I would say that
1:00:55
perception is, is changing, but very, very gradually, very
1:01:00
slowly. But there will come a point in
1:01:02
which it will suddenly, you know, start moving very rapidly.
1:01:05
And, you know, there will come a point in which everyone will
1:01:08
suddenly get it. And you don't want to start
1:01:11
buying at that point because at that point you're going to have
1:01:15
lines. You want to be done.
1:01:16
You want to be done. The coin shop, no, you want to
1:01:19
be before, before that phase. Look, we don't exactly know
1:01:24
what's going to happen in the next recession and perhaps the
1:01:28
price is going to drop. Perhaps you you will be able to
1:01:31
buy some silver, you know, cheaper for a cheaper price, but
1:01:36
perhaps there are going to be availability problems.
1:01:40
Perhaps the official price will fall, but you won't be able to
1:01:43
get any. So what I'm?
1:01:45
Telling wait. Don't wait till the next
1:01:48
recession to buy some silver. Do it now.
1:01:51
But still, if you get the chance to buy it cheaper during the
1:01:56
next recession, you can take advantage of that opportunity as
1:02:00
well. I mean like one should not
1:02:02
negate the other. But Oren, look, look what
1:02:05
happened during the little banking crisis, right?
1:02:07
These were 20 these, there was a $20 premium on these because you
1:02:11
couldn't get them. Look, look, here's the reality,
1:02:14
Oren, think about this. You talk about lines at a coin
1:02:17
shop. Who cares about coin shops?
1:02:20
Coin shops don't matter anymore, right?
1:02:21
You talk to somebody from the 1980s, but when silver went to
1:02:25
$50.00 in the United States and you know, you talk to these,
1:02:28
these old guys that worked at coin shops and say, oh, there
1:02:31
were lines of 200 people out the door at the coin shop when we
1:02:35
got there in the morning. And we would have to go out and
1:02:38
you know, tell the give people the 1st 100 people numbers and
1:02:42
tickets and then tell the other people that we weren't going to
1:02:45
be able to help them today because we just didn't, you
1:02:48
know, that was that. That's history.
1:02:50
Now we have this thing called the Internet where people can go
1:02:53
and buy guy can go to pin backs, can go to any other host of big
1:02:58
online bullion dealers and they can wipe it out in the matter of
1:03:02
hours, hours, right, hours, right.
1:03:07
And information. And on top of that, just like
1:03:09
the information used to be people go to work and they'd be
1:03:12
at the water cooler and their, their buddy say I'm going to buy
1:03:15
some silver because I heard it's going crazy.
1:03:17
And then that guy would go home and get, you know, drive to the
1:03:19
coin shop now, right? It's it's all instant.
1:03:23
I mean, like the, the, the silver, the silver and gold, but
1:03:28
let's just say silver could be gone quickly, like really
1:03:32
quickly. Not, not not days.
1:03:35
I mean, and we saw that we've, we've kind of experienced that
1:03:38
during C19. You know, I bought some silver
1:03:42
over the weekend during the C19 crisis was the one great
1:03:45
purchase I ever bought when silver was like 14 bucks an
1:03:48
ounce and it took six weeks to get to my house, right.
1:03:52
And then all the big online. So like this is real in the, in
1:03:55
the amount. You know, I talked with the guys
1:03:57
that work at the big bullion dealers and you know, the amount
1:04:01
of, of physical silver out there just because it's been so
1:04:05
readily available for the last year and a half, right?
1:04:08
It's, it's still just a small segment.
1:04:11
I mean, it really doesn't. It just it doesn't take a big
1:04:16
increase in awareness or interest for it to get wiped out
1:04:20
really quickly. Yes.
1:04:21
And as you say, you know, retail inventories are very small and
1:04:29
they can be wiped out in the matter of hours.
1:04:32
If there's really a panic, if there's truly some surge in in
1:04:37
public demand, we can see coin bullion dealers online bullion
1:04:43
dealers just, you know, getting 1000 of hours.
1:04:46
Yeah. Yeah, Yeah.
1:04:47
And you said this earlier like you don't want to be like when,
1:04:49
when, when the price does go up or, you know, when the new
1:04:54
neither of us have a crystal ball or in.
1:04:56
And I are not giving financial advice.
1:04:58
But if we do get to a point where there's a huge surge in
1:05:02
demand for silver, you said you don't want to be buying, then
1:05:05
it's not that you don't want to be buying then it's like you,
1:05:07
you, you won't be able to buy that right or unless you want to
1:05:11
get raked over the coals with the buying.
1:05:15
So Oren, thank you, thank you for being here.
1:05:17
I do. I do want to say before we sign
1:05:20
off, I need to say thank you to my other channel sponsors First
1:05:23
Mining Gold, Canadian gold developer with two multi million
1:05:26
ounce projects in Canada and Fortuna Mining and active mining
1:05:31
company with gold and silver mining operations in Latin
1:05:35
America in an expanding gold operations in West Africa.
1:05:39
Let's get back to our friend Oren.
1:05:41
Oren, go ahead. Yeah, final words.
1:05:44
Yeah, well, you know, we didn't get the chance to go into depth
1:05:48
as to why the next recession. If I'm right about that, why the
1:05:52
next recession could be, you know, worse than anything we've
1:05:56
seen, worse than 2008 worsethanthe.com bubble bust.
1:06:02
And I'll just send your viewers to check out my video, which is
1:06:06
called Brace for Impact, where I go into detail as to why I
1:06:12
believe this recession will be the big one.
1:06:16
Yeah, Hold on a second here, Silver.
1:06:21
Hold on. Bear with me.
1:06:23
There we go, guys. I want to bring you out and show
1:06:27
you hold on here Oren, and this should work.
1:06:37
Can you see your channel up there right now, Oren?
1:06:40
I I can see it. OK, here we go guys.
1:06:43
This is. Discussing, but it's the, it's
1:06:45
yes, it's my channel, yes. Here we go.
1:06:47
Hold on. So over hermit, there it is.
1:06:51
We are late through dangerous times, gross mismanagement.
1:06:56
OK, here we go. This is Oren's YouTube channel,
1:07:00
The Silver Hermit and the video. Which one were you talking were
1:07:04
you just referring to? Well, it's not here.
1:07:07
Check out the videos the the video tabs.
1:07:10
Yeah, here we go. Videos so it's it's not the last
1:07:14
one. It's the it's the the one before
1:07:17
it's called brace for impact. Brace for impact.
1:07:20
Nice asteroid falling on the Earth.
1:07:25
And A and a container of food, which we're all going to need.
1:07:27
So guys, I would highly recommend.
1:07:29
I love watching Oren's content again.
1:07:33
Here's this channel. Just going to go into the search
1:07:35
bar type silver hermit or the silver hermit and it'll come up.
1:07:40
Don't forget to check out Mountain Bullion as well, Sir, a
1:07:44
mutual friend of of Oren and I and Oren, on behalf of myself
1:07:49
and our viewer who's joined us today, thank you.
1:07:52
All right, you've really kind of drove home for me as I looked at
1:07:57
those charts in particular, like, wow, the charts indicate
1:08:00
that we're headed for a recession.
1:08:03
All of this while we have a stock market in bubble
1:08:05
territory, a new president coming in, brace for 2025.
1:08:11
But you know, like I said before, I was wrong about 2024.
1:08:15
But it sure feels like we could we could be in for some
1:08:19
uncertain times heading in 2025. Yeah, so thank you for having
1:08:24
me. Please check me out on on X as
1:08:27
well and check out Mountain Bullion 2 because you know, we
1:08:32
do a live shows together. We do videos together every
1:08:36
couple of weeks. So check out his his YouTube
1:08:40
channel as well. Sounds good More.
1:08:43
Will come. More will come.
1:08:45
All right. Thanks, Oren.
1:08:46
We'll we'll see you soon.