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NFL + MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Best Bets 9/11/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
0:08
Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
0:12
Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
0:15
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
0:18
Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
0:20
Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
0:26
Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
0:30
Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends slump that
0:34
Speaker 1: I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
0:40
Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I don't
0:42
Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. March eighte
0:46
Speaker 1: is that what it is? I don't even know it's
0:48
Speaker 1: March ninth? I think who even knows? Man, I don't
0:51
Speaker 1: know what day is anymore. I don't even know what
0:54
Speaker 1: data is anymore. Man, back with you after the worst
0:58
Speaker 1: day that I could possibly have, Back with few as
1:00
Speaker 1: I always am until I die, at least oh and two.
1:05
Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
1:07
Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
1:11
Speaker 1: my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't know what to
1:14
Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the Slump series,
1:17
Speaker 1: the Slump discontinuous, The Slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:23
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
1:25
Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
1:33
Speaker 1: It's towed back with you better off dead. This is Thursday,
1:38
Speaker 1: September eleventh. Oh boy, ah, yeah, yesterday not a great day.
1:44
Speaker 1: I mean for a whole host of reasons. Uh, the
1:47
Speaker 1: least of which was the fact that I was one
1:49
Speaker 1: and one on the show, so it was a slight loss.
1:52
Speaker 1: But I don't want to get into politics, man. I
1:54
Speaker 1: don't want to get into all the bad shit that's
1:55
Speaker 1: going on here. Scott. What's up man? Thanks for hanging out.
1:59
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna have best bets today either, which I
2:01
Speaker 1: know some people will not be happy about that. Probably.
2:04
Speaker 1: I just don't see it, man. I mean, we have
2:06
Speaker 1: nine baseball games today. I will break them down. I
2:09
Speaker 1: just don't really see an angle that I love. Necessarily.
2:12
Speaker 1: I thought I might have something there or maybe something
2:14
Speaker 1: in WNBA because there are five WNBA games. Not really
2:19
Speaker 1: seeing it though, man, But I will break everything down.
2:21
Speaker 1: We have one college football game, and of course the
2:23
Speaker 1: Thursday night NFL game, which is probably a decent matchup tonight.
2:27
Speaker 1: So I will talk about those, I'll talk about everything, man,
2:30
Speaker 1: so we can get into that in one second. But
2:33
Speaker 1: yesterday one and one on the show again, slight loss
2:36
Speaker 1: Milwaukee Texas. I mean, our starting pitching just didn't do
2:40
Speaker 1: well enough, man, especially Freddie Peralta. He was really really
2:43
Speaker 1: hot coming into that game too. I'm pretty shocked that
2:46
Speaker 1: he gave up that amount of runs to a bad
2:48
Speaker 1: offense like Texas. What can you do? Man? So that
2:51
Speaker 1: set us, that put us in a bad spot right away,
2:54
Speaker 1: and then again it almost wound up still covering and
2:58
Speaker 1: wound up going over the seven and a half. Six to
3:00
Speaker 1: three is the final. But we were hanging in there
3:03
Speaker 1: for a while with the game was sitting like right
3:05
Speaker 1: at seven I think for a while, so it was
3:08
Speaker 1: we were in it for longer than we probably should
3:10
Speaker 1: have been. It almost happened. And then easy winner on
3:13
Speaker 1: the under in Pittsburgh Baltimore, which I was just hoping
3:17
Speaker 1: we wouldn't get completely screwed on that because that was
3:19
Speaker 1: a one nothing game in either the eighth or the
3:22
Speaker 1: ninth inning, and then Baltimore I believe, tied the game
3:25
Speaker 1: late in the game, either in the bottom of the
3:27
Speaker 1: eighth or the bottom and then so it went into
3:28
Speaker 1: extra innings. You know what, the ghost runner, which they
3:31
Speaker 1: need to get rid of that man, the runner run
3:34
Speaker 1: second rule. Anything can happen. Man, you get a situation
3:37
Speaker 1: where you could wind up with, oh, now it's a
3:39
Speaker 1: two to two tie, and we have another inning. Now
3:41
Speaker 1: it's three to three. Now you're really just up against
3:44
Speaker 1: him and just like hoping that's not gonna happen, and
3:47
Speaker 1: usually it doesn't, but that is always a risk. I mean,
3:50
Speaker 1: unders go into extra innings to die. But luckily that
3:53
Speaker 1: game was so far under the offenses were so bad
3:56
Speaker 1: in the game that it didn't even matter. The bullpens
3:58
Speaker 1: helped us out too, as Paul Schemes only went five
4:01
Speaker 1: innings in that one. In Pittsburgh's bullpen, even though they
4:04
Speaker 1: blew a one nothing lead, they were good enough to
4:06
Speaker 1: hold on to that under for us. In Baltimore's bullpen
4:09
Speaker 1: didn't give up any runs, I don't think, so that
4:11
Speaker 1: worked out well as well. We're yeah, wells and they
4:15
Speaker 1: give up the only run to Pittsburgh earlier in the game,
4:18
Speaker 1: and then Baltimore wound up winning. I believe Baltimore won
4:21
Speaker 1: two to one late in the game. So that was that.
4:24
Speaker 1: Let's move on today, man, we got WNBA. It is
4:28
Speaker 1: the last day of the WNBA regular season, so you
4:31
Speaker 1: do have to pay attention to what are the playoff
4:34
Speaker 1: standings and which teams have anything to play for here,
4:38
Speaker 1: so it gets a little bit interesting. The first game
4:40
Speaker 1: up is New York at Chicago, and on the surface,
4:43
Speaker 1: you might think that maybe New York has something to
4:45
Speaker 1: play for it because they are still I believe in
4:48
Speaker 1: the standings are very close to where Phoenix is, and
4:50
Speaker 1: they can still tie Phoenix. I think they're one game
4:53
Speaker 1: behind Phoenix, So if New York wins today and Phoenix loses,
4:57
Speaker 1: New York would wind up in a tie with them.
4:59
Speaker 1: But I believe Phoenix has the tiebreaker, which I believe
5:01
Speaker 1: is the head to head matchups in Phoenix. I believe
5:04
Speaker 1: it's three and one against New York this year, so
5:07
Speaker 1: New York cannot overtake Phoenix. So I believe they are
5:10
Speaker 1: locked into their seed the Liberty and they're the four
5:13
Speaker 1: and five seeds now, so it does matter as far
5:16
Speaker 1: as you want to get the four seed because that
5:18
Speaker 1: means you're gonna host that series, and New York I
5:21
Speaker 1: think especially, is way better at home than on the road.
5:23
Speaker 1: But unfortunately for them, even though they won the championship
5:26
Speaker 1: last year and I think they're a lot better than
5:28
Speaker 1: they look right now, they're gonna wind up as the
5:30
Speaker 1: five seed here and have to play at Phoenix in
5:33
Speaker 1: the first series of the playoffs, I believe is how
5:35
Speaker 1: it's gonna work out. So the Liberty actually don't really
5:37
Speaker 1: have anything to play for here. They're playing at Chicago. Chicago,
5:41
Speaker 1: at the very least, this is their last game, man,
5:43
Speaker 1: because they're not going to the playoffs. So it is
5:45
Speaker 1: a situation where maybe they'll go all out. I mean,
5:47
Speaker 1: they've lost three games in a row. They did get
5:50
Speaker 1: absolutely annihilated in their last game against Vegas and they
5:53
Speaker 1: could not even perform well in the zig zag spot.
5:57
Speaker 1: They actually lost even worse a second game in a
5:59
Speaker 1: row against Vegas. They are turning over from a road trip,
6:02
Speaker 1: and I talk about how difficult that is. When you're
6:03
Speaker 1: turnover from a road trip, sometimes you just totally lack focus.
6:08
Speaker 1: You have to get back to home life. The question
6:10
Speaker 1: is will Chicago show up, because it is their last game,
6:12
Speaker 1: it's against a good team. Well, they want to play
6:15
Speaker 1: well and have a nice like last hurrah here. I mean,
6:18
Speaker 1: my guess is yes, I think they will. But I mean,
6:21
Speaker 1: you are talking about a bad Chicago team and maybe
6:23
Speaker 1: they'll just be looking forward to the offseason at this
6:25
Speaker 1: point and not even care. New York is actually up
6:28
Speaker 1: from nine to twelve and a half with juice here,
6:30
Speaker 1: which actually leads me to believe that maybe there are
6:32
Speaker 1: some injuries going on here. Let me see here. Well,
6:36
Speaker 1: I mean, we know Vander Salute is out already, but
6:38
Speaker 1: it looks like Angel Reese is out for Chicago. Looks
6:40
Speaker 1: like everybody for the Liberty are actually gonna play here,
6:43
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure the game does not matter for them,
6:46
Speaker 1: so you might see some of their players not play
6:48
Speaker 1: that much because you don't want to get players hurt
6:50
Speaker 1: going into the playoffs. Man, it looks like Chicago does
6:53
Speaker 1: have a very shortened roster here as well, which is
6:57
Speaker 1: why the line is up to twelve and a half.
6:59
Speaker 1: It's probably too many points though in a situation like this,
7:02
Speaker 1: so I would lean to taking the points to Chicago,
7:04
Speaker 1: but of course they are a terrible team. Phoenix at Dallas.
7:08
Speaker 1: Phoenix I believe is locked into their seat as well.
7:10
Speaker 1: They've lost the last two games. Actually, they're going out
7:14
Speaker 1: to Dallas for a final game. Of course, the Phoenix
7:16
Speaker 1: will be in the playoffs, Dallas not going to be
7:19
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. At Dallas has lost, however, many games
7:22
Speaker 1: in a row. This is a lot. They've lost nine,
7:25
Speaker 1: ten games in a row, whatever that is. And they
7:27
Speaker 1: are returning home from a road trip as well, which
7:29
Speaker 1: again difficult spot returning home from a road trip when
7:32
Speaker 1: you've been away for a while, you got to get
7:33
Speaker 1: back to home life. But again, it's just like with Chicago.
7:36
Speaker 1: It is their last game of the season, so I
7:39
Speaker 1: somewhat expect Dallas to show up and at least try
7:42
Speaker 1: to perform here. And this line is a bit different.
7:44
Speaker 1: This is only up from four and a half to
7:45
Speaker 1: five with Juice, so it almost looks too easy to
7:49
Speaker 1: lay the points with Phoenix, who everybody knows is the
7:51
Speaker 1: better team. I would probably lean towards Dallas in this game. Again,
7:55
Speaker 1: this is a situation where Phoenix, I mean, they don't
7:57
Speaker 1: need the game. I think they might potentially like start
8:00
Speaker 1: arresting some of the players. It looks like Bonner is
8:02
Speaker 1: not playing in this game for Phoenix, but Dowanna bonn
8:06
Speaker 1: or do you want to bone her? Is what I
8:08
Speaker 1: call her, which I don't think you're gonna get by
8:11
Speaker 1: looking at her, by the way, no offense, Actually I
8:14
Speaker 1: forget what she looks like. Yeah, I stand by that
8:19
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get in this channel nukes Man. Dallas has
8:22
Speaker 1: some injuries as well, but I think those are already
8:25
Speaker 1: known injuries. And Becker's, their star rookies, is still playing
8:31
Speaker 1: in that game. I would lean to Dallas in that game.
8:33
Speaker 1: I thinking they might show up to play in their
8:35
Speaker 1: final game. Golden State at Minnesota. Minnesota has been locked
8:39
Speaker 1: into the one seed for a while. They don't have
8:40
Speaker 1: anything to play for, and the returning over from a
8:43
Speaker 1: road trip, so you know, I always talk about it.
8:46
Speaker 1: I just talked about it a few seconds ago. Returning
8:48
Speaker 1: over from a road trip, you can be a bit distracted.
8:51
Speaker 1: They don't have anything to play for, man and I
8:53
Speaker 1: believe their potential MV peak candidate. Collier is not gonna
8:58
Speaker 1: play in this game because I think want her to
9:00
Speaker 1: be healthy for the playoffs obviously, so they are not
9:03
Speaker 1: playing her in this game. Ne Fesa Collier ne FISA.
9:07
Speaker 1: I don't know if you pronounce her name, that terrible name.
9:10
Speaker 1: And then, of course Golden State has moved without one
9:12
Speaker 1: of their best players, Caleb Thornton, for a while, but
9:14
Speaker 1: they're used to playing without her now, Golden State they're
9:17
Speaker 1: gonna be in the playoffs that they actually I think
9:20
Speaker 1: they can shift seeding around here, as they're sitting in
9:22
Speaker 1: one of the bottom three seeds, and they could advance
9:25
Speaker 1: their seeding potentially, So they might want to do that
9:28
Speaker 1: because they think right now they could potentially wind up
9:30
Speaker 1: having to play Minnesota in the first round, which I'm
9:33
Speaker 1: sure they don't want, so they could potentially try to
9:36
Speaker 1: avoid that. So Golden State is the only one of
9:39
Speaker 1: these teams really with anything to play for here. The
9:41
Speaker 1: money seems to have come in that way in Minnesota,
9:43
Speaker 1: down from nine to seven of though part of that
9:46
Speaker 1: line movement might be because of the decision the Collier
9:50
Speaker 1: is not going to play, which I think we already
9:51
Speaker 1: kind of knew that, but that could still when there's
9:54
Speaker 1: uncertainty there, the line could come out at a certain
9:57
Speaker 1: price and then it could drop anyway later. Eighty percent
10:00
Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety eight percent of cash on Golden State.
10:02
Speaker 1: I would lean that way. Golden State's been pretty decent
10:05
Speaker 1: as an underdog this year too. I would lean to
10:07
Speaker 1: taking the points of Golden State there, especially if you
10:09
Speaker 1: can get that key number seven. That might be actually
10:12
Speaker 1: the best playout of any of these today. And then
10:15
Speaker 1: Vegas at LA. I know this is going to be
10:18
Speaker 1: the last game for LA because they're not going to
10:20
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, but they're in kind of a dream
10:22
Speaker 1: crusher type of scenario, which I talk about with college
10:26
Speaker 1: football and stuff like that, when a team gets eliminated
10:29
Speaker 1: that first game after they get eliminated, they could tend
10:32
Speaker 1: to be in a little bit of a negative mindset
10:36
Speaker 1: and you know, not really care about the game and
10:37
Speaker 1: not show up, and that could be what we get
10:39
Speaker 1: from LA. Even though this is going to be their
10:40
Speaker 1: last game. They pretty much went all out and pulled
10:43
Speaker 1: off an upset against Phoenix in their last game and
10:45
Speaker 1: there was nothing they could do because Seattle won. So
10:48
Speaker 1: Seattle was able to get that last playoff spot. LA
10:51
Speaker 1: is eliminated. I know this is a final home game
10:54
Speaker 1: and it is against the team that's going to be
10:55
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, Vegas Vegas, and they still has a
10:59
Speaker 1: little bit to play for here. I think Vegas can
11:01
Speaker 1: still advance their seed, and if I'm not mistaken, let
11:03
Speaker 1: me see what their standings are real quick. I think
11:06
Speaker 1: they're in a battle with Atlanta and Vegas, I believe
11:08
Speaker 1: has the tiebreaker against Atlanta. Yeah, so Vegas is a
11:12
Speaker 1: half game behind Atlanta. Atlanta doesn't have any games left,
11:15
Speaker 1: so Vegas, if they win, they will actually take the
11:18
Speaker 1: two seed away from Atlanta, I'm pretty sure, which you'd
11:20
Speaker 1: be crazy because Vegas was on the verge of potentially
11:23
Speaker 1: not even making the playoffs not that long agoing now
11:25
Speaker 1: they've won i don't know, double digit games in a
11:29
Speaker 1: row and they're looking at maybe getting the two seed
11:31
Speaker 1: here and I believe if they win they will because
11:34
Speaker 1: I think they're two to zero this year against Atlanta,
11:36
Speaker 1: so Vegas has the tiebreaker. So I think Vegas is
11:39
Speaker 1: the right side in this one. I like this one,
11:42
Speaker 1: and I like the Golden State one as well. Man,
11:44
Speaker 1: it's not quite going to be a play for me
11:46
Speaker 1: because I don't love I'm not gonna lay double digits
11:49
Speaker 1: on the road, man, I mean that's just I just
11:51
Speaker 1: can't really do it. But I think that is the
11:53
Speaker 1: right side in this game. They're up from ten and
11:55
Speaker 1: a half to eleven. Here, I think you might see
11:57
Speaker 1: a defeated LA team, although there is the chance that
12:01
Speaker 1: they show up because it is their last game and
12:02
Speaker 1: they're playing a team they know what's gonna make the playoffs.
12:05
Speaker 1: They do have the chance to make sure the Vegas
12:08
Speaker 1: doesn't get the two seed, but I don't know how
12:09
Speaker 1: much that's really worth to them mentally. So Vegas is
12:13
Speaker 1: the team with more to play for there the in Vegas.
12:15
Speaker 1: Of course, if you want to fade them, you're kind
12:17
Speaker 1: of running into a train here. Like I said, they've
12:19
Speaker 1: won so many games in a row, it's crazy. I
12:21
Speaker 1: don't even know how many games in a row that
12:23
Speaker 1: is at this point. But they also they don't need
12:27
Speaker 1: to win by margin here, right, They need to just
12:29
Speaker 1: kind of get in, win the game, get out. There
12:31
Speaker 1: comes a point where they just want to make sure
12:33
Speaker 1: they don't injure their players too, So they're not really
12:35
Speaker 1: going to be trying to cover a double digit spread.
12:37
Speaker 1: They're just gonna be trying to win the game. So
12:40
Speaker 1: there is that aspect of it too that might be
12:42
Speaker 1: a little bit difficult to play Vegas in that game.
12:45
Speaker 1: So Golden State probably is still the best play out
12:48
Speaker 1: of any of these. And by the way, it does
12:49
Speaker 1: look like the money's now coming in on Chicago as well,
12:52
Speaker 1: which I mentioned. I leaned that way as well. Let's
12:55
Speaker 1: go to Major League Baseball, Pittsburgh and Baltimore finishing their
12:58
Speaker 1: series today. I believe Baltimore on the version of a sweep,
13:01
Speaker 1: winning both games in low scoring fashion by one run.
13:04
Speaker 1: We got the under yesterday. I leaned it to the
13:06
Speaker 1: under in the prior game too. Baltimore does have a
13:09
Speaker 1: big series up next against Toronto. I mean, Baltimore. Neither
13:12
Speaker 1: of these teams really have anything left to play for,
13:14
Speaker 1: but it is possible that Baltimore overlooks pittsburghen they're on
13:18
Speaker 1: the version of sweeping them, and they do have a
13:19
Speaker 1: divisional series next against Toronto, who I believe are still
13:23
Speaker 1: the division leaders here, so possible look ahead spot for
13:27
Speaker 1: Baltimore here. Neither team has a great bullpenal though Pittsburgh's
13:31
Speaker 1: bullpen is the better of the two. As far as
13:34
Speaker 1: the rest situation, similar usage, kind of moderate usage from
13:37
Speaker 1: the two teams yesterday and in recent days started pitching.
13:43
Speaker 1: Very difficult egauge to starting pitching in this one man
13:45
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh as Johanna Ouviado listed as a starter here. He
13:50
Speaker 1: does have good numbers two point seventy R one point
13:53
Speaker 1: one whip slightly worse than the road three run the road,
13:57
Speaker 1: but it's a very small sample size from him. He's
13:59
Speaker 1: made five appearances, one of them was a one inning outing,
14:03
Speaker 1: and then I think he joined the starting rotation. I
14:05
Speaker 1: guess he's gone pretty much a starter's workload in those
14:09
Speaker 1: last four outings, and he did face some pretty good
14:11
Speaker 1: offenses Toronto, Boston, Milwaukee, and he hasn't allowed a lot
14:15
Speaker 1: of runs, and those outings, he's allowed two or fewer
14:17
Speaker 1: on runs in every single one. I think his walk
14:21
Speaker 1: numbers are a concern on them, man. I mean he's
14:22
Speaker 1: gone twenty innings, hasn't a lot a lot of hits,
14:24
Speaker 1: eleven hits, twenty four strikeouts, high strikeout rate for him too,
14:28
Speaker 1: but eleven walks. So he's been wild. If you look
14:31
Speaker 1: at his career numbers, he's been around for a while
14:33
Speaker 1: and his numbers have never really been that good. So
14:36
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that he really is that good. And
14:38
Speaker 1: he seems to be on a bit of a pitch count.
14:39
Speaker 1: They don't let him. They've been cutting him off before.
14:43
Speaker 1: He makes the eighty pitch mark in every one of
14:45
Speaker 1: his outings, so you know you're gonna get some Pittsburgh
14:48
Speaker 1: bullpen in this game. Baltimore only his thirteen at bats
14:51
Speaker 1: against him. Four batters have faced him before, and they
14:54
Speaker 1: haven't done well. Three strikeouts, one walk, one fifty four average,
14:57
Speaker 1: five seventy four oh ps sov eight on might du
15:01
Speaker 1: well while he's in there. He's going up against cade Povich,
15:04
Speaker 1: who has the worst numbers this year out of the
15:06
Speaker 1: two of them. Has been struggling for Baltimore, although I
15:10
Speaker 1: think he does have some decent stuff. Man, I keep
15:12
Speaker 1: waiting for him to start pitching better and hasn't really happened.
15:15
Speaker 1: He's still pretty young, but he's got a five point
15:18
Speaker 1: one six ERA one point four to six whip that's
15:20
Speaker 1: not good. He's been worse at home five point nine
15:23
Speaker 1: six ERA at home. His last outing not great against
15:28
Speaker 1: San Diego. Five innings, four and runs allowed, three walks,
15:31
Speaker 1: three strikeouts. That's kind of a concern. He was decent
15:34
Speaker 1: in the prior month. Even though Baltimore lost all five
15:36
Speaker 1: to his outings. He faced pretty talented offenses for the
15:40
Speaker 1: entire month of August and still had a thirty two
15:42
Speaker 1: to nine strike a walk ratio, so his command was
15:45
Speaker 1: pretty on point in that month. But he's still had
15:47
Speaker 1: a four point seven to eight ERA. He never got
15:50
Speaker 1: really bombed in any of those outings, but he just
15:52
Speaker 1: gave up a moderate amount of runs in most of
15:55
Speaker 1: the starts, so mediocre stuff from him. He is facing
15:59
Speaker 1: a very weak pitch for offense. Pittsburgh is the worst
16:02
Speaker 1: of the two offenses here, and only Horowitz has ever
16:05
Speaker 1: faced him before. He's zero for three. Uh so, uh Horrwitz.
16:10
Speaker 1: By the way, that's when the that's when the prostitute
16:13
Speaker 1: starts making jokes when you're with her. That's the Horowitz. Yeah,
16:18
Speaker 1: o kay, my jokes are so bad anyway. Yeah, I
16:23
Speaker 1: mean I would slightly, I guess lean to Pittsburgh in
16:26
Speaker 1: this game. I think they do have the pitching edge,
16:28
Speaker 1: I guess throughout the game. It's really weird to say that,
16:31
Speaker 1: but they have fifty four percent of tickets fifty nine
16:33
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, and Baltimore dropped for
16:35
Speaker 1: minus one thirty to minus one twenty two, so the
16:37
Speaker 1: money line did drop on them. Looks like the money
16:39
Speaker 1: is kind of coming in on Pittsburgh Baltimore. Like I said,
16:42
Speaker 1: they do have potentially a look ahead spot here and
16:45
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh trying to avoid a sweep at the very least.
16:47
Speaker 1: So then we know Pittsburgh is significantly better at home
16:50
Speaker 1: than they are on the road. And they're on the
16:52
Speaker 1: road here but slightly into Pittsburgh for me in that game,
16:57
Speaker 1: and it looks like, uh, some of the money came
16:59
Speaker 1: in on the old. I don't really agree with that necessarily.
17:01
Speaker 1: The total dropped a little bit less juice on the
17:04
Speaker 1: eight and a half over sixty eight percent take us
17:06
Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of the catch on the over. I mean,
17:09
Speaker 1: both offenses aren't that good, so I could still see
17:12
Speaker 1: it being another low scoring game here, although I would
17:13
Speaker 1: worry about the bullpens. I might only go with the
17:15
Speaker 1: first five inning under if I was gonna look that way.
17:19
Speaker 1: But I think I prefer the Pittsburgh side. Tampa Bay
17:22
Speaker 1: at the White Sox again, two teams that are playing
17:26
Speaker 1: out the stretch here the White Sox. I think the
17:28
Speaker 1: White Sox are at least a little bit better than
17:30
Speaker 1: the record looks. They're not historically bad like last year.
17:33
Speaker 1: At the very least, these teams have split the first
17:36
Speaker 1: two games of the series, each team winning by one
17:38
Speaker 1: run Tampa, but they know they're out of it too.
17:41
Speaker 1: Although Tampa is generally the better team, they have the
17:43
Speaker 1: better offense, they have the better bullpen. Do they have
17:46
Speaker 1: the better starting pitcher here? Though? I don't know? And
17:48
Speaker 1: what's the bullpen usage look like? The White Sox use
17:50
Speaker 1: a lot of relief pitchers yesterday, even though I don't
17:52
Speaker 1: even think it was an extra inning game. They used
17:55
Speaker 1: seven guys out of their bullpens. That's not a great
17:57
Speaker 1: sign for a White Sox bullpen. That's not good. And anyway,
18:00
Speaker 1: Tampa had pretty heavy usage to them. They had six
18:03
Speaker 1: relief pitchers come out yesterday, though Baker only through one pitch,
18:07
Speaker 1: so he'd probably be available again today if they need him,
18:10
Speaker 1: although they pitched Tuesday as well, so both bullpen's fairly
18:14
Speaker 1: used up, though, so I don't know if i'd want
18:16
Speaker 1: to like bank on either bullpen to do anything good
18:19
Speaker 1: in this game. Starting pitching Ian Seymour's pitching for Tampa
18:23
Speaker 1: good numbers on the season two point eight to ninety RA,
18:26
Speaker 1: one point one WHIP. He's been better on the road
18:29
Speaker 1: to one point eight two roady RA, but he hasn't
18:32
Speaker 1: pitched that much, so you have to gauge, and by
18:35
Speaker 1: looking at a fairly small sample, SiZ I believe he
18:37
Speaker 1: was in the bullpen for a while. He's only been
18:40
Speaker 1: on the rosters. He made one appearance in July, and
18:43
Speaker 1: then he was on the roster again. Excuse me, one
18:46
Speaker 1: appearance in June, and then he's been on the roster
18:48
Speaker 1: again since mid July onward. He's really only gotten completely
18:53
Speaker 1: bombed in one outing against the Yankees, but his last
18:57
Speaker 1: two outies are kind of weird man, because he allowed
18:59
Speaker 1: nine uns across those two outings, but only two of
19:01
Speaker 1: them were earned, so his fielding really really lapsed behind him.
19:05
Speaker 1: He had a thirteen to three strike a walk ratio.
19:07
Speaker 1: That was a start at Washington and a start at
19:10
Speaker 1: home against Cleveland, and we know Tampa's stadium, playing in
19:14
Speaker 1: Steinburner Field, the Yankee spring training stadium is very hit
19:17
Speaker 1: her friendly. But he didn't do as bad as his
19:20
Speaker 1: numbers would really suggest in those two outings, as the
19:22
Speaker 1: fielding really just failed behind him. So he might be
19:25
Speaker 1: a little bit better than those appearances make him look,
19:28
Speaker 1: although we just love to worry about how good is
19:30
Speaker 1: he going to be? As a starter. He did do
19:31
Speaker 1: well against Cleveland in the start before that one, hitting
19:34
Speaker 1: them through five innings, had a high strike out rate
19:37
Speaker 1: there too, So he's showing glimpses of being fairly good.
19:41
Speaker 1: And he is ramping up his pitch count to where
19:43
Speaker 1: he's throwing about between eighty and ninety pitches now in
19:46
Speaker 1: these last couple of starts, so he's kind of going
19:48
Speaker 1: to starter's workload now. He hasn't faced very good offenses
19:50
Speaker 1: this whole time, but of course the White Sox offense
19:53
Speaker 1: is also not good. But in five at bats, the
19:56
Speaker 1: White Sox do have a four hundred average off in
19:58
Speaker 1: eight hundred oh ps, they don't have any strikeouts or
20:00
Speaker 1: walks or extra base hits. Such a small sample size,
20:04
Speaker 1: like it's difficult to really take anything away from that.
20:07
Speaker 1: You could argue that Seymour will actually pitch well. Here.
20:10
Speaker 1: The White Sox have Shane Smith pitching, who is a rookie.
20:13
Speaker 1: He's had a pretty good season three point nine to
20:16
Speaker 1: five yar ray, one point two whip. He was really
20:18
Speaker 1: good at the beginning of the season. Middle of the
20:21
Speaker 1: season he wasn't as good and he was struggling, and
20:24
Speaker 1: then he I think he either got hurt or I
20:25
Speaker 1: don't think they send him to the miners, because I
20:27
Speaker 1: think they he's the guy they want in their starting
20:29
Speaker 1: rotation moving forward. But I think he must have been
20:31
Speaker 1: hurt or something. He came back and he started pitching
20:34
Speaker 1: better again. He's been better at home three point twenty
20:37
Speaker 1: six home y ray, so I believe both of these
20:39
Speaker 1: pitchers have the advantage of the home road splits here.
20:44
Speaker 1: Smith has been decent, like I said, since coming back
20:47
Speaker 1: in the month of August. He had a two point
20:49
Speaker 1: six seventy ra thirty one to thirteen strike a walk
20:52
Speaker 1: ratio was decent, a few too many walks, and he
20:56
Speaker 1: allowed too many home runs six home runs over that span.
20:58
Speaker 1: He did allow another home run last time out against
21:01
Speaker 1: Detroit on the road, but that's a difficult to sign.
21:03
Speaker 1: And he did okay in the game. He picked up
21:05
Speaker 1: a win because he got run support, went five innings
21:09
Speaker 1: a lot four and runs, six strikeouts, two walks, So
21:12
Speaker 1: I mean he's still continuing to be in decent form
21:15
Speaker 1: in my opinion, and Tampa has never faced Smith before,
21:18
Speaker 1: so my opinion in this game is under in the
21:21
Speaker 1: first five innings would be my opinion as slightly into
21:25
Speaker 1: the White Sox as well, and the market seems to
21:28
Speaker 1: agree with both of those. But I think the under
21:30
Speaker 1: first five innings is the better way. I don't want
21:32
Speaker 1: anything to do with the bullpens, but sixty five five
21:34
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, eighty nine percent of
21:36
Speaker 1: the cash on the under, and the total has dropped
21:38
Speaker 1: for mayite and a half to eight. Again, I think
21:41
Speaker 1: first five innings you probably find it at about four
21:43
Speaker 1: out there, and that's the way that I would go,
21:44
Speaker 1: because I actually think both starting pitchers may do fairly
21:48
Speaker 1: well in this game. Don't trust the bullpens. I do
21:51
Speaker 1: think Smith is the more trustworthy over Seymour, though, because
21:54
Speaker 1: he's just a bit more proven than Seymour is and
21:57
Speaker 1: he's completely unknown to Seymour. You know good. I mean
22:01
Speaker 1: he's been fairly good, but he is a converter reliever.
22:04
Speaker 1: The public will be on Tampa, I mean six hund
22:06
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on, six hund percent of the cash
22:08
Speaker 1: on them as well, but the money line has dropped
22:10
Speaker 1: for minus one thirty eight to minus one twenty eight.
22:12
Speaker 1: The professionals have usually been on Tampa coming down the
22:16
Speaker 1: stretch here because they are a team that is better
22:18
Speaker 1: than the record looks, but in this game, I'm not
22:21
Speaker 1: so sure about that, although I would still probably limit
22:23
Speaker 1: that to the first five innings too. If you wanted
22:25
Speaker 1: the White Sox grab them money line, underdog first five
22:29
Speaker 1: innings would be my opinion, so you don't have to
22:30
Speaker 1: deal with their bullpen, which is really not good and
22:34
Speaker 1: not rested either. But I still think under first five
22:37
Speaker 1: innings is actually my preference in that game. Houston at Toronto,
22:41
Speaker 1: this is a big series. These teams are both I believe,
22:44
Speaker 1: still hanging on to their slim division leads here. These
22:49
Speaker 1: teams have split the first two games of the series,
22:51
Speaker 1: with each team winning by one run. It's been a
22:54
Speaker 1: pretty hard fought series. Both games are pretty low scoring.
22:58
Speaker 1: Bullpen wise, Houston the better bullpend, but they've had more
23:01
Speaker 1: bullpen usage recently, although yesterday they only used three relievers.
23:05
Speaker 1: And remember Houston does have some bullpen injuries they're dealing
23:08
Speaker 1: with right now, including their clothes or Hater who is
23:11
Speaker 1: still not back. They're gonna need him back for the playoffs.
23:14
Speaker 1: Man could be difficult for Houston once the playoffs starting. Toronto,
23:17
Speaker 1: their bullpen has proven to be pretty untrustworth. Their usage
23:21
Speaker 1: right now is basically moderate bullpen usage. Some of their
23:25
Speaker 1: better relievers I think are still available today. But I
23:29
Speaker 1: don't trust Toronto's bullpen really, they've been tailing off. They've
23:32
Speaker 1: been pretty bad recently, so somebody to keep in mind
23:35
Speaker 1: Toronto has the better offense. Their offense has been quite good.
23:38
Speaker 1: Toronto also particularly good at home, I believe, Yeah, with
23:42
Speaker 1: a record that's well above five hundred, not even close.
23:44
Speaker 1: Houston actually above five hundred on the road. There are
23:47
Speaker 1: very few teams that are even above five hundred on
23:49
Speaker 1: the road, I think, and the Brewers are far and
23:52
Speaker 1: away the best road team, although Houston is a decent
23:55
Speaker 1: road team at the very least started pitching. Though Christian
23:59
Speaker 1: Hobvier has pitch for Houston. He came back not too
24:01
Speaker 1: long ago, coming back from injury. He missed most of
24:05
Speaker 1: the season, but he's been mediocre since coming back, which
24:08
Speaker 1: I think that's basically what he's been throughout his career.
24:11
Speaker 1: Though he's kind of a mediocre pitcher. He usually his
24:15
Speaker 1: problem is he walks too many guys. He's got a
24:18
Speaker 1: four point four to three ERA one point three to
24:20
Speaker 1: three whip. He is way worse on the road, a
24:22
Speaker 1: thirteen point five road era. That's not a good sign,
24:25
Speaker 1: a though it was only in one start. Four of
24:27
Speaker 1: his five starts have been at home this year. His
24:30
Speaker 1: one road start was bad, and it was against a
24:32
Speaker 1: Baltimore team that doesn't really hit very well, though Baltimore
24:35
Speaker 1: had just seen him in the prior outing. But he
24:37
Speaker 1: didn't go deep in either one of those outings. I
24:39
Speaker 1: don't know why he didn't last longer in the first
24:41
Speaker 1: of the two because he wasn't pitching badly. I don't
24:44
Speaker 1: know what happened there if he got it, maybe injured
24:46
Speaker 1: again and they had to take him out. I'm not
24:48
Speaker 1: really sure. The second out of he walked four guys,
24:50
Speaker 1: and since then, his last three outings he's walked three
24:53
Speaker 1: or more guys, and all of them, even though one
24:55
Speaker 1: of them was a no hit bid through six innings
24:58
Speaker 1: against Anaheim. Last time out, he got smoked by the Yankees,
25:01
Speaker 1: given up six hits, four and runs, and four to
25:03
Speaker 1: third innings, again with three walks four strikeouts. I don't
25:07
Speaker 1: trust Hovier and man, his walk rate is just way
25:09
Speaker 1: too high right now, hasn't a lot of that many hits.
25:12
Speaker 1: Strikeout rates fine, but he's not that great. Although he
25:15
Speaker 1: is actually good against Toronto though in sixty seven at bats,
25:18
Speaker 1: they only have nine hits off him seventeen to eight
25:20
Speaker 1: strike up walk ratios, so again the walk strikeout walk
25:23
Speaker 1: ratio not very good. Too many walks, but he's held
25:26
Speaker 1: him to one thirty four batting average of four to
25:28
Speaker 1: fifty one oh ps. So he actually has done well
25:31
Speaker 1: against the Toronto offense. But I still don't really trust him, man,
25:35
Speaker 1: because his recent form is just bad. He's going up
25:38
Speaker 1: against Kevin Gussman, who is the pitcher who's been in
25:41
Speaker 1: the better for him, and he has been a pitcher
25:44
Speaker 1: who's pitched the entire season. But he's such a veteran man,
25:47
Speaker 1: I mean, he's used to this. I don't think he's
25:48
Speaker 1: wearing down or anything like that. This reason starts have
25:51
Speaker 1: been good too. He's got a three point six to
25:54
Speaker 1: three ERA, one point zero three whip three point eight
25:58
Speaker 1: four ERA at home, so he's slightly worse at home,
26:00
Speaker 1: but not by much. His ERA was actually higher for
26:04
Speaker 1: a bit, and he's been good again for really a
26:06
Speaker 1: few months now, like over two months now. In August,
26:09
Speaker 1: he had a three point five to five VRA thirty
26:11
Speaker 1: five to six strike a walk ratio that was solid.
26:14
Speaker 1: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but
26:16
Speaker 1: one outing, going all the way back to his first
26:18
Speaker 1: outing of August, which was his last six outings, including
26:23
Speaker 1: most recently, he gave up one hit in seven innings
26:25
Speaker 1: against Milwaukee and then one hit in eight or excuse
26:28
Speaker 1: one run in seven innings against Milwaukee in one and
26:31
Speaker 1: run in eight innings at the Yankees at the Bronx.
26:35
Speaker 1: Not easy to do, and he had a thirteen to
26:36
Speaker 1: one strike a walk ratio over that span. He's in
26:40
Speaker 1: good form right now. Man. The only question is he's
26:43
Speaker 1: gonna suffer any sort of like letdown coming off a
26:45
Speaker 1: big win against the Yankees or he picked up a
26:48
Speaker 1: win there. I don't think so, because this is still
26:51
Speaker 1: a big series against Houston. His numbers are good against
26:53
Speaker 1: Houston two one hundred and seven at bats, fifty to
26:56
Speaker 1: eleven strike a walk ratio that is good one sixty
26:59
Speaker 1: eight adding averaging five thirty five ops. So I do
27:02
Speaker 1: think Goussman is the more trustworthy of these two pitchers,
27:06
Speaker 1: and the money is coming in towards Toronto. Though if
27:08
Speaker 1: I were to do Toronto here, I still don't trust
27:11
Speaker 1: their bullpen though, man, So I think I would limit
27:13
Speaker 1: it to the first five innings and go maybe Toronto
27:16
Speaker 1: minus a half run line in the first five innings
27:18
Speaker 1: and just get them to be ahead at the end
27:20
Speaker 1: of five. Although Javier I know his numbers are good
27:23
Speaker 1: against Toronto, but I think goussman Ken pitch well enough
27:27
Speaker 1: of Toronto's offense is good enough to give them the
27:29
Speaker 1: lead after five. But we will say Toronto up for
27:31
Speaker 1: minus one forty three to minus one fifty two seventy
27:34
Speaker 1: one per tickets, seventy six percent of the cash on Toronto,
27:37
Speaker 1: so the money is coming in on Toronto. I agree
27:41
Speaker 1: with it in the first five innings. I think that
27:42
Speaker 1: is the best way to go in this game. Money
27:46
Speaker 1: coming in in the under as well, down from eight
27:47
Speaker 1: and a half to eight and a half juice to
27:49
Speaker 1: the under sixty two percent of tickets on the over
27:51
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the cash on the under. I
27:54
Speaker 1: don't really disagree with that either, although I still don't
27:57
Speaker 1: trust the bullpens, especially Toronto. So I could see Hobvier
28:01
Speaker 1: still pitching well because he does match up well against Toronto.
28:04
Speaker 1: As we saw, these matchup numbers indicate that you might
28:06
Speaker 1: get good starts from both of these starters, so I
28:09
Speaker 1: wouldn't disagree with an under in the first five innings
28:11
Speaker 1: in that game either. So that's the way I look
28:14
Speaker 1: at that one. Washington at Miami, yet another one of
28:17
Speaker 1: these games went over in the series. Yesterday, Miami finally
28:20
Speaker 1: got a win. I leaned over in all three games,
28:23
Speaker 1: and I gave out the overs a play I think
28:25
Speaker 1: in the second of the two games, second of the three.
28:28
Speaker 1: I mean, so this has been an over series, man.
28:30
Speaker 1: I mean, we have two teams that don't have good pitching.
28:34
Speaker 1: Miami finally got a win yesterday. I believe they had
28:36
Speaker 1: ur A Perez on the mound yesterday, if I'm not mistaken.
28:38
Speaker 1: So at least it's a good because I like him.
28:40
Speaker 1: It's a good thing to see that they finally they
28:42
Speaker 1: won with him on the mound yesterday. I think it
28:44
Speaker 1: was Perez right, let me make sure, let me see
28:47
Speaker 1: I was so. I think he finally gave them a
28:50
Speaker 1: decent start again. So good to see. An Irvin actually
28:54
Speaker 1: wasn't even that bad for Washington. But it looks like
28:56
Speaker 1: Miami scored a lot later in the game against Washington's bullpen.
29:01
Speaker 1: Miami finally got a win after they lost the first
29:03
Speaker 1: two games in the series, so somebody keep in mind there.
29:06
Speaker 1: And sometimes when a team loses a win streak, sometimes
29:09
Speaker 1: they get hung over, So something to keep in mind
29:11
Speaker 1: with Washington, they'd won four games in a row. Now
29:14
Speaker 1: that they lost, they might get hung over a little
29:16
Speaker 1: bit coming into this game. Both bullpens are bad, although
29:20
Speaker 1: Washington's is the worst of the two. Washington used five
29:24
Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday. Miami, let me see use four, So
29:30
Speaker 1: Miami actually has a somewhat more rested bullpen as well.
29:33
Speaker 1: So I think you gotta give the bullpen edge to
29:35
Speaker 1: Miami here. Miami has the better offense too, so that
29:38
Speaker 1: some of the advantages from Miami here. I think the
29:40
Speaker 1: situation is better for Miami too. I mean, both these
29:42
Speaker 1: teams are playing out the stretch with not a lot
29:44
Speaker 1: to play for. Again, Washington could be hung over a
29:47
Speaker 1: little bit from losing their win streak. I know it
29:50
Speaker 1: is a divisional matchups, so both teams might show up
29:54
Speaker 1: just for that reason, but teams are playing out the
29:56
Speaker 1: stretch here. Mackenzie Gore is pitching for Washington. He is
30:00
Speaker 1: a guy that has really good strikeout stuff, but he's
30:02
Speaker 1: just way too wild man. He's actually coming off the
30:05
Speaker 1: injured list. Now he's had a shoulder injury. He's got
30:08
Speaker 1: a four point one to five ERA one point three
30:11
Speaker 1: to four whips. His whip is too high. He is
30:13
Speaker 1: better on the road though, three point seven road ERA.
30:16
Speaker 1: He's been out for a couple of weeks, so basically
30:20
Speaker 1: he was on the injury list for about the minimum
30:22
Speaker 1: amount of time that you can be so he last
30:25
Speaker 1: pitched at the end of August. He wasn't good in August.
30:28
Speaker 1: He had a five point nine two ERA twenty five
30:30
Speaker 1: to ten strike a walk ratio, so that was pretty ugly.
30:33
Speaker 1: Although he faced the A's Philly, the Mets, and then
30:35
Speaker 1: the Yankees on the road, his only good start was
30:38
Speaker 1: against San Francisco, weak lineup on the road and their
30:40
Speaker 1: pitcher friendly ballpark. So you could argue Gores better than
30:44
Speaker 1: he looked that month because the rest of his outings
30:46
Speaker 1: were against difficult lineups and he's not facing as difficult
30:51
Speaker 1: to line up here against Miami. He does have pretty
30:54
Speaker 1: good numbers against Miami, and forty three at bats eleven
30:57
Speaker 1: to four strike a walk ratio is not that impressive,
30:59
Speaker 1: but already three batting average allowed, five point fifty four ohps,
31:03
Speaker 1: so generally he's done pretty well against him. He's only
31:05
Speaker 1: allowed one extra base hit, a double from Waghman, So Gore,
31:10
Speaker 1: I mean you could argue he will do well here.
31:12
Speaker 1: Sometimes I say, when a pitcher comes back off the
31:14
Speaker 1: injured list, they get excited to just get back out
31:17
Speaker 1: there and they pitch a little bit better. Maybe that
31:19
Speaker 1: will be the case with him, even though he's not
31:21
Speaker 1: really a veteran picture I wouldn't say, but he's been around.
31:24
Speaker 1: I mean, he's been around long enough that maybe you
31:26
Speaker 1: could argue he's getting into that territory because he's been
31:28
Speaker 1: in the league since twenty twenty two and this is
31:31
Speaker 1: his third basically full season. Here. He's going up against
31:35
Speaker 1: Ryan Weathers, who is also coming back from the injured list.
31:38
Speaker 1: He's been injured for I think a majority of the
31:40
Speaker 1: season at this point, and he was pitching pretty well. Man.
31:43
Speaker 1: He's a young pitcher who I used to make fun
31:45
Speaker 1: of on this show, but his numbers got way way better.
31:48
Speaker 1: I think he does have some talent here. Man. His
31:50
Speaker 1: numbers are better than Gores this year, though it's a
31:52
Speaker 1: limited sample size for him. Three point two to EIGHTRA,
31:56
Speaker 1: one point zero five whip for him He's been worse
31:59
Speaker 1: at home though point ninety, so Gore does have the
32:02
Speaker 1: advantage of the splits here. Weathers only made five starts
32:06
Speaker 1: this season before he got hurt. Last time he pitched
32:08
Speaker 1: was at Tampa Bay, very difficult park to pitch in.
32:12
Speaker 1: At the end of her excuse me. The beginning of June,
32:16
Speaker 1: he's allowed four or fewer earned runs and all five
32:18
Speaker 1: to his outings. His first three outings he allowed one
32:20
Speaker 1: or fewer. He only went upwards of five and two
32:23
Speaker 1: thirds innings, and all of them but two of them
32:25
Speaker 1: were against the Cubs and he shut the Cubs down.
32:27
Speaker 1: So decent sign here. He had a twenty three to
32:30
Speaker 1: eight strike a walk ratio before going down, which is
32:33
Speaker 1: not great, but it's not terrible. It didn't allow that
32:36
Speaker 1: many hits, allowed too many home runs though, four home
32:39
Speaker 1: runs over the five starts. But Weathers was actually still
32:43
Speaker 1: pitching pretty well. Now he's coming back, so again he
32:47
Speaker 1: might be pumped, but he's less of a veteran man,
32:49
Speaker 1: so I don't know about him being able to return
32:51
Speaker 1: from a long stint on the injury list like this
32:53
Speaker 1: and be ready to just get back out there. Washington
32:57
Speaker 1: only is seventeen at bats against him, but he's held
32:59
Speaker 1: them down for the most part five to two strike
33:01
Speaker 1: a walk ratios, whatever, but one seventy six batting average
33:04
Speaker 1: allowed six point fifty three ohps slightly high because he
33:07
Speaker 1: has a lot of three doubles all three hits or doubles,
33:10
Speaker 1: But even so, I think Weathers could potentially pitch well
33:14
Speaker 1: in this game. The money is coming in on Miami,
33:16
Speaker 1: even though the money line dropped for minus one thirty
33:19
Speaker 1: to minus one thirteen, which I think that probably must
33:23
Speaker 1: have been because maybe Washington was late to announce that
33:26
Speaker 1: Gore was gonna come back and pitch this game, because
33:28
Speaker 1: I think that's the only reason that I could see
33:30
Speaker 1: this line moving like that when you see that fifty
33:32
Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets in ninety five percent of the
33:34
Speaker 1: cash room on Miami, so the money's coming in on Miami. Uh.
33:39
Speaker 1: The only reason I can see for the line moving
33:40
Speaker 1: against where we see the money coming in even that
33:43
Speaker 1: significantly would have been that Washington probably had some other
33:46
Speaker 1: starter listed or were undecided, and then they announced that
33:50
Speaker 1: Gore was gonna come back and pitch in this game,
33:52
Speaker 1: so that would be that would move the line towards
33:54
Speaker 1: Washington because Gore is still better than some unnamed pitcher. Basically,
34:01
Speaker 1: I actually think the under might actually be the better
34:03
Speaker 1: way to look in this game though, first five innings.
34:05
Speaker 1: Though I know I've said over in every game this series.
34:08
Speaker 1: I hate the bullpens, especially Washington. They're the bullpen that
34:11
Speaker 1: I really hate. But I think the starters are actually
34:13
Speaker 1: fairly good. So I think you could go under in
34:17
Speaker 1: this game. In the first five innings, man seventy five
34:19
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, fifty eight percent of
34:21
Speaker 1: cash on the under. I mean, I don't know if
34:23
Speaker 1: i'd say that they're both good in general, but I
34:26
Speaker 1: think in this matchup they could be, and the offenses
34:29
Speaker 1: are fairly weak. It's just gonna be a matter of
34:31
Speaker 1: can both pitchers come back and pitch well coming off
34:34
Speaker 1: of the injured list here? I think they can. I mean,
34:37
Speaker 1: you know, these guys have had rehab starts, so they're
34:39
Speaker 1: not coming in completely cold. Gore is a bit more
34:41
Speaker 1: of a veteran at this point, although still young. They're
34:44
Speaker 1: both young, so we will see. I mean, I'm staying
34:48
Speaker 1: away from it, but I do agree with the money
34:50
Speaker 1: being on Miami. I lean to Miami, and if you
34:52
Speaker 1: do that, I would probably go full game because their
34:54
Speaker 1: bullpen is the better of the two and their offenses,
34:57
Speaker 1: and I think Weathers might actually be the better way
34:59
Speaker 1: to go over Gore. And then I also do agree
35:01
Speaker 1: with the first five inning under in that game. Detroit
35:04
Speaker 1: at New York the Yankees. I'm not crying about this,
35:08
Speaker 1: but this is crazy. The first two games of the
35:10
Speaker 1: series have been close through the first five innings, and
35:13
Speaker 1: then the Yankees bullpen has been atrocious in the two games,
35:17
Speaker 1: and the Yankees have now lost both games by ten
35:21
Speaker 1: runs each, which I think is the first time in
35:24
Speaker 1: I don't know if it was the first time ever
35:25
Speaker 1: in Yankee history, but it's a pretty historical thing to
35:29
Speaker 1: happen with the Yankees losing two games in a row
35:32
Speaker 1: at home by ten or more runs. I think the
35:35
Speaker 1: last time it happened was either never or it was
35:38
Speaker 1: like a long long time ago. I mean, that's crazy.
35:41
Speaker 1: I mean, the Yankees are still probably the best team
35:43
Speaker 1: in the AL, but their bullpen is definitely a problem
35:46
Speaker 1: and it has been showing in this series. Is Detroit
35:49
Speaker 1: just massacred them in both games by a combined whatever
35:54
Speaker 1: that is now twenty three to three win margin there
36:00
Speaker 1: to two and eleven to one in the two games,
36:02
Speaker 1: I believe is what that was. So Yankees they're gonna
36:05
Speaker 1: be pissed though, and they're gonna try to bounce back here. Man.
36:07
Speaker 1: I think it might be a spot where the Yankees
36:09
Speaker 1: are going to play better here. I mean, how could
36:11
Speaker 1: they really be worse? Of course, you do still have
36:13
Speaker 1: to worry about the Yankees bullpen. I don't really think
36:15
Speaker 1: I would trust them. Their bullpen used to just kind
36:18
Speaker 1: of moderate to somewhat heavy over the last couple of days.
36:22
Speaker 1: Don't really trust those pitchers. Detroit does have the better bullpen.
36:26
Speaker 1: Detroit also the more rested bullpen. Then it uses many
36:30
Speaker 1: But that's gonna need to be the case today because
36:32
Speaker 1: Detroit actually is going with a bullpend game in this game.
36:35
Speaker 1: So that kind of negates their bullpen advantage a little
36:37
Speaker 1: bit because the bullpen's gonna be in there for the
36:39
Speaker 1: whole game. But Detroit, they're the masters of the bullpen game,
36:44
Speaker 1: and that is what they do. Aj Hinch has been
36:46
Speaker 1: like the guy that's done at the most over the
36:48
Speaker 1: last few years, so he knows how to mix and
36:50
Speaker 1: match his pitchers. But will it work well against this
36:53
Speaker 1: Yankees offense? I don't know, because the Yankees still have
36:55
Speaker 1: the better offense here. Both these teams have solid offenses.
36:58
Speaker 1: Yankees' offense is the way better to though, And I
37:01
Speaker 1: did lead to the over in the game yesterday, and
37:04
Speaker 1: it got there only because the bullpen's because the Yankees
37:08
Speaker 1: bullpen specifically is terrible. That's the only reason it got there.
37:11
Speaker 1: But I mean that was that was part of the handicap.
37:13
Speaker 1: At the very least. Detroit is Tyler Holton listened as
37:16
Speaker 1: a starter here. He's an opener. Like I said, it's
37:19
Speaker 1: gonna be a bullpen game. He's used to doing this though.
37:22
Speaker 1: I mean, he's kind of their main opener. When they
37:24
Speaker 1: go with a bullpen game, it tends to be him
37:26
Speaker 1: pitching the first inning. He's got a three point eighty
37:29
Speaker 1: RA one point one two whip so decent numbers on
37:33
Speaker 1: the season, better on the road as well, three point
37:35
Speaker 1: three to one ERA. But again, he goes one inning
37:37
Speaker 1: basically and then they turn it over to the rest
37:39
Speaker 1: of the bullpens. That's probably what you're gonna get here,
37:41
Speaker 1: depending on what the specific matchups are against specific batters.
37:45
Speaker 1: Sometimes he leave him in for like one and a third.
37:49
Speaker 1: He is a lefty so we'll see what happens. So
37:50
Speaker 1: the Yankees are probably gonna stack a lot of right
37:52
Speaker 1: handed bats at the top of their lineup to face
37:56
Speaker 1: him on the first inning. But we'll see. I mean, Holden, yeah,
38:01
Speaker 1: I mean, he's been DC. He did just face the
38:03
Speaker 1: Yankees his last time out to he faced him yesterday.
38:05
Speaker 1: He went one inning yesterday, so pretty obvious he's only
38:09
Speaker 1: gonna go about one inning this time out. But we'll see.
38:11
Speaker 1: He only threw fourteen pitches yesterday. I mean again, he's
38:16
Speaker 1: a guy that could potentially pitch a couple of innings
38:18
Speaker 1: if he wasn't pitching like multiple days in a row.
38:20
Speaker 1: So we'll see. But I don't want to overanalyze because
38:23
Speaker 1: he's only gonna go about one inning here. His numbers
38:25
Speaker 1: are all right against the Yankees as well. In thirty
38:27
Speaker 1: nine at bats, nine strikeouts, no walks, that solid two
38:31
Speaker 1: fifty six batting averaged six to ninety two. Oh ps
38:34
Speaker 1: someone on the higher side because he's allowed two of
38:36
Speaker 1: them runs to Goldschmidt and Rice, But we'll see. I
38:42
Speaker 1: think the Yankees do have the starting pitching edge here
38:44
Speaker 1: because they have an actual starter pitching, which is the
38:47
Speaker 1: young talent here. Cam Schlittler one of the most fun
38:53
Speaker 1: names to say in Major League Baseball, though I have
38:56
Speaker 1: to not like him because again, he's from Massachusetts and
38:58
Speaker 1: he's pitching for the Yankee Come on man, three point
39:02
Speaker 1: two to four ERA for him one point three to
39:04
Speaker 1: four whips. His whip is a little bit high. I mean,
39:06
Speaker 1: I think he's had a little bit of wildness and
39:09
Speaker 1: he hasn't been as good at home four point two
39:11
Speaker 1: eight home he ra, so that is a little bit
39:12
Speaker 1: of a concern. Last time out in this stadium he
39:15
Speaker 1: had his worst outings so far. He only lasted one
39:18
Speaker 1: to two thirds, had to throw sixty six pitches, and
39:21
Speaker 1: he gave up five hits, two walks, four and runs
39:24
Speaker 1: against Toronto and only struck out two. Toronto's a good offense.
39:27
Speaker 1: Detroit's not as good as Toronto, but Detroit is still
39:29
Speaker 1: a pretty good offense. Although Schlitzler, other than that, he's
39:32
Speaker 1: been pretty good. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs
39:35
Speaker 1: in all of his other outings, and since the beginning
39:37
Speaker 1: of August, he hadn't a lot more than two earned
39:40
Speaker 1: runs in any of his outings until that point, so
39:42
Speaker 1: he was fitching pretty well. Although granted he faced some
39:45
Speaker 1: kind of weak offenses in there, so Toronto was a
39:48
Speaker 1: step up for him, and Toronto was seeing him for
39:51
Speaker 1: the second time. Though that's another thing to keep in mind,
39:53
Speaker 1: that Toronto was more familiar with him because they were
39:56
Speaker 1: seeing him a second time. He did better against them
39:59
Speaker 1: the first time, although he was mediocre in that one
40:02
Speaker 1: with three walks and five innings, and that one, which
40:04
Speaker 1: wasn't that great, Tampa actually did worse against him the
40:07
Speaker 1: second time they saw him, So take from that what
40:09
Speaker 1: you will. Detroit has never seen him before, so I
40:12
Speaker 1: do think Schlitzler does have an extra edge there because
40:15
Speaker 1: Detroit hasn't seen him before. I think he would. I'm
40:18
Speaker 1: not gonna say he's in bad for him because of
40:19
Speaker 1: one really bad outing. I think he can bounce back
40:22
Speaker 1: from that, and you know, he'll probably be pissed about it.
40:26
Speaker 1: And he had to throw fewer pitches than he usually
40:28
Speaker 1: throws in a start in that one, so have a
40:30
Speaker 1: little bit of extra rest for that reason as well.
40:33
Speaker 1: So I think Yankees' first five innings is probably the
40:35
Speaker 1: way to look in this game. I think they have
40:37
Speaker 1: the starting pitching edge here against Detroit's bullpen game. But
40:40
Speaker 1: then the money is disagreeing with me, at least on
40:43
Speaker 1: the full game. The Yankees are down for minus one
40:45
Speaker 1: sixty five to minus one forty three, eighty four percent
40:47
Speaker 1: of the tickets, only seventy four percent of the cash,
40:50
Speaker 1: so the public is basically thinking there's no way the
40:52
Speaker 1: Yankees can lose three games in a row. Here like this,
40:56
Speaker 1: I mean, I want to be so short, and of
40:58
Speaker 1: course the full game handicapped, of course involves the fact
41:01
Speaker 1: that the Yankees bullpen is bad, and it is the
41:03
Speaker 1: worst of the two bullpens. So obviously I'm saying if
41:06
Speaker 1: you go with the Yankees, it has to be a
41:08
Speaker 1: first five inning play. But I do think that you
41:10
Speaker 1: have the they have the edge and the starting pitching here.
41:12
Speaker 1: The money's also coming in in the under, which I
41:16
Speaker 1: can kind of see that because the two results in
41:18
Speaker 1: the series so far, we're both kind of misleading, as
41:21
Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen just got absolutely annihilated in both games
41:24
Speaker 1: and all the runs came home late in both games,
41:27
Speaker 1: so the games were both low scoring early. But again,
41:30
Speaker 1: if you want to go under, I would still probably
41:32
Speaker 1: recommend going under in the first five innings because then
41:34
Speaker 1: you get Schlitler for pretty much all that, all of
41:37
Speaker 1: that span, and you don't have to worry about the
41:39
Speaker 1: Yankees bullpen killing your bet, and then you get the
41:42
Speaker 1: Detroit bullpend game is a bit of a mystery, but
41:45
Speaker 1: they're at least used to doing that. So if you're
41:47
Speaker 1: gonna go under, which is where the money's coming in,
41:49
Speaker 1: fifty percent of tickets on the over, ninety six percent
41:52
Speaker 1: of the cash on the under, and the total has
41:54
Speaker 1: flipped from eight and a half juice to the over
41:56
Speaker 1: to eight and a half juice to the under, I
41:58
Speaker 1: would limit it to the first five innings in that case, too, man.
42:01
Speaker 1: So that's how I look at that game. Stacks. What's
42:03
Speaker 1: up man, Thanks for hanging out, Pete. What's up man?
42:09
Speaker 1: What bet did you take? You just took a bet
42:12
Speaker 1: that I was talking about at the same time, just independently.
42:15
Speaker 1: You agreed with me. Tell me what bet you made, man,
42:19
Speaker 1: I'm interested to know. Kansas City at Cleveland. Cleveland just
42:25
Speaker 1: lost a win streak in this series. So this is
42:27
Speaker 1: a four game series. Cleveland won the first two in
42:31
Speaker 1: this series and then lost to win streak. They had
42:33
Speaker 1: a five game win streak. So again I point out
42:35
Speaker 1: that when a team loses a win streak like that,
42:37
Speaker 1: it might hang them over into the next game. So
42:39
Speaker 1: it makes a little bit of a worse spot for
42:41
Speaker 1: Cleveland here. Neither of these teams that I think, really
42:45
Speaker 1: have much to play for at this point. I mean,
42:46
Speaker 1: I know they're not technically eliminated, but I think both
42:49
Speaker 1: these teams kind of know they're not making the playoffs here,
42:52
Speaker 1: so they're kind of about to be playing out the
42:54
Speaker 1: stretch here in the final month. Here, it's still a
42:57
Speaker 1: divisional matchup, and the teams are closely a lot in
43:00
Speaker 1: the standings here, with Cleveland actually having a half game
43:04
Speaker 1: lead above Kansas City. Kansas City might have something to
43:07
Speaker 1: say about that, because Kansas City, in my opinion, actually
43:09
Speaker 1: is the better of these two teams. They have the
43:10
Speaker 1: better run differential. Cleveland has a slightly better bullpend despite
43:15
Speaker 1: losing their closer to being suspended for gambling on his
43:18
Speaker 1: own games cluss a, but Cleveland's bullpen has actually been
43:22
Speaker 1: solid anyway for whatever reason. Kansas City's is a decent
43:25
Speaker 1: bullpend as well, but not as good as Cleveland's on
43:28
Speaker 1: the season. Believe it or not, Kansas City has the
43:30
Speaker 1: better offense of the two. Both offenses are pretty bad,
43:33
Speaker 1: but Cleveland's is really bad. So all things to keep
43:37
Speaker 1: in mind. You played at minus one ten on Draft
43:40
Speaker 1: Kings Yankees first five. Wait, you got a minus one
43:43
Speaker 1: ten money line on that. No way, there's no way
43:46
Speaker 1: it was that cheap, right, There's no way the Yankees
43:49
Speaker 1: are a heavier favorite in the full game than you must.
43:53
Speaker 1: It must have been a minus a half run you're
43:55
Speaker 1: talking about, right, that must be what it was, right,
43:57
Speaker 1: that would probably be. That makes sense that would be
43:59
Speaker 1: priced minus one ten, because that would be the way
44:01
Speaker 1: that I would do it. I think it would have
44:03
Speaker 1: to be that, because I'm yeah, yeah, the half run. Yeah,
44:06
Speaker 1: because you know that if the Yankees are minus one
44:08
Speaker 1: forty whatever in the full game, everybody knows their bullpen
44:12
Speaker 1: is bad, so everybody knows the Yankees should be a
44:14
Speaker 1: heavier favorite in the first five. So I assume that
44:17
Speaker 1: the money line of the first five is probably like
44:18
Speaker 1: minus one sixty or something. But yeah, if you can
44:21
Speaker 1: get the minus half run at minus one ten, I
44:23
Speaker 1: do like that. Not giving it out as a play, though,
44:26
Speaker 1: but I do like that. Unfortunately, I'm not giving out
44:29
Speaker 1: any place today. Maybe fortunately I don't know. I mean,
44:31
Speaker 1: I just don't feel strongly enough about any of this,
44:34
Speaker 1: but Kansas City at Cleveland here. Bullpen usage wise, Kansas
44:38
Speaker 1: City had a ton of bullpen usage yesterday, a very
44:41
Speaker 1: heavy bullpen usage over the last three days, really mostly yesterday,
44:45
Speaker 1: so that is something to definitely keep in mind. Kansas
44:47
Speaker 1: City could be a concern. Cleveland did use five of
44:50
Speaker 1: their relievers, but their bullpen usage has been a bit
44:53
Speaker 1: lighter because they didn't use many of the relievers at
44:55
Speaker 1: all the prior to days. So Cleveland does have the
44:58
Speaker 1: bullpen advantage in this game. In my opinion. They have
45:01
Speaker 1: the better bullpen and slightly more rested bullpen. Kansas City
45:04
Speaker 1: does have the better offense, and Kansas City's offense is
45:07
Speaker 1: better on the road than at home. At home, they're
45:09
Speaker 1: very bad. It's a pitcher friendly park too, but they're
45:12
Speaker 1: a bit better at hitting on the road. Stephen Coleck
45:16
Speaker 1: is pitching for Kansas City. They got him, i believe,
45:19
Speaker 1: right before the trade deadline from San Diego. San Diego
45:22
Speaker 1: actually unloaded two of their starting pitchers to Kansas City,
45:26
Speaker 1: even though San Diego is gonna make the playoffs and
45:28
Speaker 1: Kansas City isn't. Most likely, Coleck has been okay this season.
45:32
Speaker 1: Three point eight to eighty IRA one point two to
45:35
Speaker 1: four WHIP. He's been better on the road as well,
45:37
Speaker 1: two point four to one ERA, so go figure his
45:40
Speaker 1: home road splits are even more extreme with San Diego.
45:43
Speaker 1: I can't figure that out because San Diego and Kansas
45:46
Speaker 1: City both pitch, and they both play in pitcher friendly park.
45:49
Speaker 1: So I don't understand why it's roady Ira is so
45:51
Speaker 1: much better, but it is, and he is on the
45:54
Speaker 1: road here. He's only made two starts with Kansas City
45:57
Speaker 1: and they're both pretty good. I yelled Detroit to one
45:59
Speaker 1: and run six innings against That was at home against Detroit.
46:03
Speaker 1: Both of these were at home, so he actually all
46:05
Speaker 1: of a sudden he started pitching better at home with
46:07
Speaker 1: Kansas City too. And his last time he was against Minnesota.
46:10
Speaker 1: I mean, that's less impressive because Minnesota is not good offensively,
46:13
Speaker 1: but he held them to tour and runs and seven innings.
46:16
Speaker 1: Over those two starts. He had seven strikeouts in one walk.
46:19
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not really a strikeout guy, but his
46:20
Speaker 1: command was good in those starts. So he's been good
46:24
Speaker 1: in those two outings for the Royals. Does show that
46:26
Speaker 1: he's in good form. His numbers against Cleveland. Cleveland only
46:30
Speaker 1: has five hitters I've ever seen him before. They each
46:32
Speaker 1: have won it bad against him, and they're four for
46:34
Speaker 1: five off him, with four singles, no walks, and no strikeouts.
46:37
Speaker 1: Very strange numbers there, but it is a very small
46:40
Speaker 1: sample size, so I'm not ready to say that Colok
46:43
Speaker 1: is going to do poorly against this lineup. And it's
46:45
Speaker 1: not a good Cleveland lineup, so I don't think there's
46:48
Speaker 1: a whole lot to draw from that small sample size.
46:50
Speaker 1: Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland on He's been okay
46:55
Speaker 1: for them, and he's shown glimpses of being really good,
46:57
Speaker 1: and then other times he just walks way too many guys.
47:00
Speaker 1: Even I think in his no hit bit he walked
47:02
Speaker 1: too many guys. He's got a three point one seventy RA,
47:05
Speaker 1: which is obviously good, but at one point two to
47:07
Speaker 1: nine whip getting to be a bit on the higher side.
47:10
Speaker 1: He is a little bit better at home three era
47:12
Speaker 1: at home good in his last two outings, give up
47:16
Speaker 1: one earned run a piece against Seattle and then at Tampa,
47:18
Speaker 1: which is a difficult part to pitch in. Like I said,
47:21
Speaker 1: it's a very hitter friendly park. It's the Yankees Spring
47:25
Speaker 1: Training Stadium. Over those two outings, he had an eleven
47:29
Speaker 1: to four strikeout walk ratio. It's still too many walks though, Man.
47:34
Speaker 1: Two of his last three outings he's had three or
47:36
Speaker 1: more walks, So that is the concern with Williams usually
47:39
Speaker 1: is that he just has too many walks. He hasn't
47:41
Speaker 1: allowed a lot of runs. He's allowed three or few
47:43
Speaker 1: earned runs at all but one start, going all the
47:45
Speaker 1: way back to his first start in July, which was
47:48
Speaker 1: at the Cubs, which is not an easy task. So
47:52
Speaker 1: he is generally pitching pretty well. His numbers are good
47:54
Speaker 1: against Kansas City as well. I mean they're not very intimidating.
47:57
Speaker 1: Lineup ninety one at bats against him, eighteen to eight
48:00
Speaker 1: eight strike a walk ratio is still a bad ratio. Again,
48:03
Speaker 1: Williams walking too many guys compared to how many strikeouts
48:07
Speaker 1: he gets two on nine batting average allowed on six
48:09
Speaker 1: thirty five ops. So Williams, He's not bad against Kansas City. Man.
48:14
Speaker 1: So this does seem to have some of the makings
48:17
Speaker 1: of an under here, And if I was gonna do that,
48:18
Speaker 1: I would probably not want to include the bullpens, especially
48:21
Speaker 1: because Kansas City's bullpen is so overworked right now, the
48:25
Speaker 1: totals at seven and a half with some juice on
48:27
Speaker 1: the over, it's got down a little bit. I don't
48:30
Speaker 1: know if you'd still be able to get a first
48:32
Speaker 1: five inning under four, because that's where I kind of
48:34
Speaker 1: like it. I mean, you might have to go under
48:35
Speaker 1: three and a half. I could still see it happening.
48:39
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna recommend it as a play,
48:40
Speaker 1: but I think that is the way that I would
48:42
Speaker 1: lean in this game would be to the first five
48:44
Speaker 1: inning under here. If the bullpens were not as taxed,
48:48
Speaker 1: especially Kansas City's, I would be saying you should go
48:50
Speaker 1: full game on that. Sixty eight percent of tickets only
48:53
Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the cash on the over, So
48:55
Speaker 1: the money seems to be agreeing with the under a
48:56
Speaker 1: bit money coming in on Cleveland a little bit too,
48:59
Speaker 1: sitting at minus one thirty five, sixty six percent tickets,
49:02
Speaker 1: seventy six percent of cash coming in on them. I mean,
49:04
Speaker 1: I think Williams is the more predictable pitcher because there's
49:08
Speaker 1: more of a sample size to work with, so you
49:10
Speaker 1: kind of know what he's gonna do, and he has
49:12
Speaker 1: the better matchup numbers Colek definitely more of a question mark,
49:16
Speaker 1: so there is a I mean not all factors into that.
49:20
Speaker 1: I handicapped there. And if you wanted to go Cleveland
49:22
Speaker 1: money line, I think you would have to do a
49:23
Speaker 1: full game because you want to get their bullpen advantage
49:25
Speaker 1: that I think they have here as well. But I
49:28
Speaker 1: don't like the situation for Cleveland being potentially hung over
49:31
Speaker 1: after losing that win streak. The Mets at Philadelphia. This
49:36
Speaker 1: game is gonna be on Fox, and so is Kansas
49:38
Speaker 1: City and Cleveland at the same time, but obviously Mets
49:42
Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. This is one of the two really big
49:44
Speaker 1: games todaying Houston and Toronto is the other one. Oh, Detroit,
49:47
Speaker 1: New York is pretty big too, but it's not naturally
49:49
Speaker 1: all advised for whatever reason. But of course Detroit and
49:51
Speaker 1: New York they're both playing for playoff seeding. Of course,
49:54
Speaker 1: with the Yankees, by the way, have more to play for,
49:56
Speaker 1: which helps that Yankee first five inning bet. I think
49:59
Speaker 1: the motivation and the Yankees are still trying to make
50:01
Speaker 1: sure they make a playoffs man and try to battle
50:03
Speaker 1: in their division. Detroit has huge padding in their division,
50:07
Speaker 1: so they could start to be on cruise control. A
50:09
Speaker 1: little bit, although you know Detroit will show up off
50:11
Speaker 1: for a series against the Yankees regardless Mets Philly, Philly
50:15
Speaker 1: could start going on cruise control potentially. Man, they have
50:18
Speaker 1: a ten game lead over the Mets. Now, the Mets
50:20
Speaker 1: are in danger again in the wildcard race, I think,
50:23
Speaker 1: even though they do have a lead there because Cincinnati
50:24
Speaker 1: hasn't been playing that well either. But the Mets have
50:28
Speaker 1: more to worry about here, so the Mets I think
50:30
Speaker 1: have more motivation here. Philly is on the verge of
50:34
Speaker 1: a sweep as well, so they might maybe take the
50:36
Speaker 1: Mets a little bit lightly after blasting them in the
50:39
Speaker 1: last two games. But i combined twenty to six score,
50:42
Speaker 1: Philly has had the upper hand in the series, so
50:44
Speaker 1: I think there are some motivational aspects of this that
50:47
Speaker 1: lean towards the Mets here. I do think the Mets
50:49
Speaker 1: have the better bullpen, and up until this series they
50:52
Speaker 1: actually had the better offense, And they actually are tied
50:55
Speaker 1: with Philadelphia now in ops on the season, which is crazy.
50:58
Speaker 1: So those teams have been shifting around as far as
51:01
Speaker 1: their offenses. That's wild, man, So they're both really good offenses.
51:06
Speaker 1: Philly not as much bullpen usage, so even though Phillies
51:09
Speaker 1: bullpen is not the better of the two, they're the
51:11
Speaker 1: less uh worked bullpen. Here's the Mets used more of
51:14
Speaker 1: their bullpen the last couple of days ago. The red
51:18
Speaker 1: over here on this site here in Roda Wire makes
51:20
Speaker 1: it look a little bit worse. They used three relief
51:22
Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, so it's not as bad as it looks,
51:25
Speaker 1: and one long relief man the day before that. I'd
51:28
Speaker 1: still probably give the bullpen edge to the Mets slightly here.
51:32
Speaker 1: Don't know if they have the starting pitching edge though,
51:33
Speaker 1: because they have David Peterson pitching and I'm not really
51:36
Speaker 1: a huge fan of his. He, you know, has been
51:39
Speaker 1: one of the guys that have said is a regression candidate,
51:42
Speaker 1: where I don't think he's as good as the ray looks,
51:44
Speaker 1: and he is starting to pitch worse. He doesn't He
51:47
Speaker 1: has a three point seven to two ERA in the season.
51:49
Speaker 1: One point three to two whip is definitely too high,
51:51
Speaker 1: though he's been a little bit better on the road
51:53
Speaker 1: three point six to six roadyra but he's been bad
51:57
Speaker 1: over the past like month Man in August, he really
52:00
Speaker 1: started to struggle six point six eighty IRA in August
52:03
Speaker 1: thirty seven thirty five to seventeen strike a walk ratio,
52:06
Speaker 1: So his strikeout rate actually went up, but his walk
52:09
Speaker 1: rate was terrible. His walk walk rate went way up.
52:12
Speaker 1: That's not a good sign. His last outing wasn't as
52:15
Speaker 1: bad as far as the command. Four strikeouts, one walk,
52:18
Speaker 1: and five and a third innings. Did you give up
52:20
Speaker 1: seven hits and fourign runs? Though at Cincinnati. I know
52:23
Speaker 1: it's a difficult place to pitch. It's a pitcher hitter
52:26
Speaker 1: at friendly ballpark there, but he gave up four and runs.
52:29
Speaker 1: Peterson is not a very good form right now man,
52:32
Speaker 1: and his numbers against Philly don't make it any better
52:34
Speaker 1: for him in one hundred and fifteen at bats, so
52:36
Speaker 1: they're definitely familiar with him. Thirty one to twelve strike
52:39
Speaker 1: a walk ratio is not that great, three h four
52:41
Speaker 1: batting average allowed eight forty ops, allowed four different batters
52:44
Speaker 1: of hit home runs off him. So his numbers against
52:49
Speaker 1: the Phillies leaves something to be desired. So, even though
52:52
Speaker 1: I think the Mets do have a potential bullpen edge
52:55
Speaker 1: here and a motivation edge here, I worry about this man.
52:57
Speaker 1: The starting pitching is a bit of a concern. He's
53:01
Speaker 1: going up against Jesus Lozardo, who's been really up and
53:03
Speaker 1: down this season. Overall numbers of decent four point oh
53:07
Speaker 1: one ERA one point two nine whip again is still
53:10
Speaker 1: a bit too high. I mean, I like something to
53:11
Speaker 1: be one point two or lower. Basically, he's been worse
53:15
Speaker 1: at home four point five ERA. At home, he was
53:19
Speaker 1: really good or early in the season, then he was
53:20
Speaker 1: bad in the middle of the season, and there were
53:23
Speaker 1: reports that he was tipping his pitches, so meaning that
53:26
Speaker 1: there was something in his delivery where hitters were able
53:28
Speaker 1: to figure out what pitch he was gonna throw. He
53:31
Speaker 1: started getting better again, then he had a couple more
53:33
Speaker 1: bad starts. He's been better again for over a month,
53:36
Speaker 1: though he was good in August with a three point
53:38
Speaker 1: one two ERA forty two to eight strikeout walk ratio.
53:41
Speaker 1: His walk rate still may be a bit of a
53:43
Speaker 1: concern though, because over the last three outings he's had
53:46
Speaker 1: eight walks. A lot of strikeouts too, though twenty strikeouts,
53:51
Speaker 1: but still eight walks is ridiculous, so I do worry
53:54
Speaker 1: about that. Did go six plus innings in the last
53:57
Speaker 1: two outings long tour and runs total there but against
54:00
Speaker 1: Atlanta and Miami and those are not offenses that are
54:03
Speaker 1: as good as the Mets. Last time he faced the
54:05
Speaker 1: Mets was the start before that, so the Mets just
54:07
Speaker 1: saw him and they did well against him. They got
54:09
Speaker 1: four runs against him in four innings, five hits allowed,
54:13
Speaker 1: five strike ups, three walks. I believe that was the
54:15
Speaker 1: outing where he loaded the bases in the fifth inning
54:18
Speaker 1: and then got thrown out of the game for arguing
54:20
Speaker 1: with the umpire. So he was getting in his own
54:24
Speaker 1: head in that start. Definitely don't wasn't good in the start.
54:28
Speaker 1: He threw too many pitches, put too many guys on base. Again,
54:32
Speaker 1: pitch well after that, but against the Mets, maybe a
54:34
Speaker 1: little bit of a different story. His numbers overall, they're
54:36
Speaker 1: actually okay against the Mets and one hundred and fifty
54:39
Speaker 1: one at bats forty one to fifteen strike a walk
54:41
Speaker 1: ratio two to fifty two batting I was allowed in
54:43
Speaker 1: six sixty four ohps and that's including not doing well
54:46
Speaker 1: last time out, which I think going into that game,
54:49
Speaker 1: I think I actually liked the Phillies in the first
54:53
Speaker 1: five innings in that game because Luzardo did a matchup
54:57
Speaker 1: edge of my opinion in that game, I don't know
54:59
Speaker 1: if it was a It's Peterson or not. But uh,
55:03
Speaker 1: for the same reason though. We're at home now though,
55:05
Speaker 1: But I think Lozardo may still have an edge in
55:07
Speaker 1: this game, man, so I really wouldn't want to go
55:10
Speaker 1: with the Mets here. The money line did drop on
55:12
Speaker 1: Philly for minus one forty minus won twenty two sixty
55:15
Speaker 1: six percent tickets eighty three percent of the cash coming
55:17
Speaker 1: in on Philly, So even though it might look almost
55:19
Speaker 1: too easy to take Philly here, it seems like the
55:21
Speaker 1: cash is coming in on that side, even though the
55:24
Speaker 1: money line dropped a bit, so it is a cheap
55:25
Speaker 1: price on Philly, although i'd probably do it first five innings,
55:29
Speaker 1: so it won't be as cheap if you do it
55:30
Speaker 1: first five innings. I wouldn't have Maagic, as we all
55:32
Speaker 1: know their bullpen isn't that good. But I think the
55:35
Speaker 1: biggest edge they have, I think is actually in the
55:37
Speaker 1: started pitching, so that's probably where I would go with
55:40
Speaker 1: that one. Anaheim at Seattle. This is a new series, actually,
55:45
Speaker 1: I think this is the only series that is beginning today,
55:48
Speaker 1: so weird to have a series beginning on a Thursday,
55:51
Speaker 1: and then I think it's gonna go through Sunday. Seattle's
55:54
Speaker 1: won five games in a row, Seattle within one game
55:57
Speaker 1: of the AL West lead. Now Seattle, I mean, obviously
56:00
Speaker 1: have something to play for. They're battling for wild card positioning.
56:03
Speaker 1: The're battling to potentially win their division five games in
56:07
Speaker 1: a row. They're coming off a sweep of Saint Louis.
56:09
Speaker 1: Here they're playing Anaheim, and I've been talking about how
56:12
Speaker 1: bad Anaheim really is, even though the record doesn't look
56:15
Speaker 1: that bad. Anaheim has the worst run differential in the
56:18
Speaker 1: American League, meaning runs scored versus runs allowed. They've been terrible.
56:25
Speaker 1: Anaeim's bullpen is terrible, so Seattle has a better bullpend.
56:28
Speaker 1: Seattle has a better offense too. Anaheim is kind of
56:30
Speaker 1: a moderate, like a mediocre offense. Seattle's is a bit
56:34
Speaker 1: better than that. Anaheim's dealing with some injuries as well
56:38
Speaker 1: a couple of other guys. I know Adele has been
56:41
Speaker 1: out with vertigo, so I don't know if he's vomiting
56:43
Speaker 1: out there like Hunter Green style, I have no idea.
56:45
Speaker 1: And then o'hapa has been injured as well, and I
56:49
Speaker 1: think one of the other hitters has been hurt too,
56:51
Speaker 1: So something to keep an eye on there as far
56:53
Speaker 1: as which guys are gonna be in the line at potential,
56:55
Speaker 1: though maybe it won't matter too much as far as
56:57
Speaker 1: the handicap is concerned, and ESPN does at least show
56:59
Speaker 1: you when you look at the batter versus pitcher stats.
57:02
Speaker 1: ESPN does only show you the active hitters at least,
57:07
Speaker 1: but it doesn't necessarily mean that those hitters are gonna
57:09
Speaker 1: actually be able to play tonight though, So like some
57:12
Speaker 1: of these guys I think are still on the active
57:13
Speaker 1: roster even though they might not play. As far as
57:17
Speaker 1: the bullpen usage, So Seattle, you know, is one a
57:21
Speaker 1: bunch of games in a row. They're coming up that
57:22
Speaker 1: series against Well, I was gonna talk about the bullpen usage,
57:26
Speaker 1: and I got to talk about what the teams did
57:27
Speaker 1: in their last series as well. Seattle is staying at home,
57:30
Speaker 1: coming up that series against Saint Louis, so they're not traveling.
57:33
Speaker 1: Anaheim is staying on the Pacific coast. They're starting road
57:35
Speaker 1: trip with momentum though, coming up beating Minnesota two out
57:39
Speaker 1: of three the last two games. So teams starting roa
57:42
Speaker 1: trip with momentum sometimes they do do well. And Anaheim
57:45
Speaker 1: may be motivated just because they want to kind of
57:47
Speaker 1: potentially spoil Seattle season here. So maybe a little bit
57:50
Speaker 1: of motivation for that reason, because it is a divisional
57:53
Speaker 1: matchup and they're used to traveling up to Seattle, So
57:56
Speaker 1: I don't think there's really much of a concern with that.
57:58
Speaker 1: Jose Soriano. Uh oh no, wait, bullpen usage my mistake.
58:02
Speaker 1: Seattle used a lot of their bullpen yesterday. They used
58:05
Speaker 1: six relief pitchers, yes, say so that is a concern.
58:08
Speaker 1: Anaheim used six as well, although Stevenson only pitched through
58:13
Speaker 1: three pitches so he's probably available again. But both bullpens
58:16
Speaker 1: not great as far as the rest is concerned right now.
58:18
Speaker 1: But Anaheim does have the worst of the two bullpens.
58:21
Speaker 1: Jose Soriano was pitching for Anaheim. Mediocre numbers for him
58:26
Speaker 1: four point oh seventy RA one point three to seven
58:28
Speaker 1: whip is definitely too high for whatever reason. He is
58:31
Speaker 1: way better on the road though, two point four to
58:33
Speaker 1: seventy RA. And this is a pitcher friendly ballpark in
58:36
Speaker 1: Seattle here. He got obsolutely torched last time out by
58:39
Speaker 1: the A's. I think he was supposed to pitch a
58:41
Speaker 1: couple of days ago because I remember handicapping him, and
58:43
Speaker 1: I guess he didn't pitch, so I don't know if
58:45
Speaker 1: there's an injury with Soriana, if he got pushed back
58:47
Speaker 1: or whatever. But he looks like he's pitching on normal
58:49
Speaker 1: rest here though, because he last pitched on the fifth,
58:52
Speaker 1: so I don't know. Maybe it's Mendella effect in my mind.
58:54
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on. But he was bad
58:56
Speaker 1: against the A's last time. I'll give him eight ron runs,
58:59
Speaker 1: five walks, two and a third innings pitch terrible outing,
59:02
Speaker 1: but he wasn't home. The A's definitely hit pretty well
59:05
Speaker 1: his prior to outings vaulting on the road, he had shutouts,
59:09
Speaker 1: so he's a bit difficult to gauge man, but he
59:12
Speaker 1: is way better on the road he was. He was
59:14
Speaker 1: pretty good for the month of August, generally three point
59:16
Speaker 1: eight one ERA, twenty nine to eight strike a walk ratio.
59:21
Speaker 1: Potentially he will do well in this outing here against
59:23
Speaker 1: Seattle's numbers are pretty good in ninety six at best,
59:26
Speaker 1: twenty four to eight strike a walk ratio not horrible,
59:29
Speaker 1: two nineteen batting average six twenty nine ohps. Has allowed
59:33
Speaker 1: three on runs, but two of them are Rodriguez so
59:35
Speaker 1: besides Rodriguez, the rest of the lineup doesn't do that
59:39
Speaker 1: well against him. Crawford does okay, but other than that,
59:43
Speaker 1: not a whole lot there. So Siriana might actually pitch well.
59:46
Speaker 1: It sets up for him to pitch fairly well in
59:48
Speaker 1: this one. Seattle has Bryce Miller pitching, and Miller has
59:52
Speaker 1: not returned to for him yet. Man, he's got really
59:54
Speaker 1: bad numbers this season, but his career numbers are a
59:57
Speaker 1: lot better than that. Like, he's a guy that is
59:59
Speaker 1: a talented pitcher, and he's usually like all Seattle's pitchers,
1:00:01
Speaker 1: he's better at home usually, but it's usually it's sad man,
1:00:05
Speaker 1: when a pitcher's really good, and especially if they're still
1:00:07
Speaker 1: fairly young, like this twenty seven, and they wind up
1:00:10
Speaker 1: I think he had Tommy John surgery or something. They
1:00:12
Speaker 1: wind up having a like a serious injury, they miss time,
1:00:14
Speaker 1: and then they come back and they're just not themselves anymore.
1:00:17
Speaker 1: That sucks, man, because his career stats are good, but
1:00:20
Speaker 1: this year has been bad. Five point five three ERA
1:00:23
Speaker 1: one point four whip Uh. He's been better at home,
1:00:27
Speaker 1: but still not good five point four six ERA. Maybe
1:00:31
Speaker 1: bitching a little bit better. His last couple outings, allowing
1:00:34
Speaker 1: tour in runs apiece against Cleveland and Atlanta, going at
1:00:37
Speaker 1: least five and a third in each of those outings.
1:00:39
Speaker 1: Strike Out Ray wasn't really there though. Six strikeouts, three walks.
1:00:42
Speaker 1: That's not great, so he's still struggling a bit, although
1:00:45
Speaker 1: maybe he's slightly improving over his last couple of outings
1:00:49
Speaker 1: against Anaheim. He's been fairly decent generally in fifty two
1:00:54
Speaker 1: at bats sixteen to five strike out walk ratio not horrible,
1:00:58
Speaker 1: two thirty one batting seven to fourteen ohbs a little
1:01:02
Speaker 1: bit high because five walks is still a bit much
1:01:04
Speaker 1: in that amount of it bats. Two of them runs
1:01:06
Speaker 1: allowed to Ward and Darna, So not the guys that
1:01:09
Speaker 1: have been dealing with injuries and whatever. O'hapa is not
1:01:13
Speaker 1: listed here, so he's probably out. He is not on
1:01:16
Speaker 1: the active roster right now, so he's taking into account there.
1:01:19
Speaker 1: So what are we gonna get in this game? It's
1:01:21
Speaker 1: very difficult to gauge man because you can potentially see
1:01:24
Speaker 1: both pitchers pitch well here. You can potentially see both
1:01:27
Speaker 1: pitchers not pitching well here. Seattle is public sixty eight
1:01:31
Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only sixty six percent of the cash.
1:01:33
Speaker 1: Everybody knows Seattle is a team that has something to
1:01:35
Speaker 1: play for here, so they're gonna be the public side,
1:01:39
Speaker 1: and they have the more impressive offense Seattle, and the
1:01:41
Speaker 1: public likes that Seattle off minus one forty one forty eight.
1:01:44
Speaker 1: Of course, everybody knows Raleigh especially, so the money line
1:01:49
Speaker 1: did move up on Seattle, but it looks like the
1:01:50
Speaker 1: cash is kind of fading them a bit, and it
1:01:53
Speaker 1: looks like a very public over. Ninety one percent of
1:01:56
Speaker 1: tickets on the over only eighty two percent of the
1:01:57
Speaker 1: cash on the over, because, of course we know Anaheim
1:02:00
Speaker 1: plays a lot of high scoring games. Their bullpend is atrocious.
1:02:04
Speaker 1: They allow it a lot of runs. But I think
1:02:08
Speaker 1: an under might actually be a better look here, and
1:02:11
Speaker 1: I would not do the full game. I would do
1:02:12
Speaker 1: first five innings. I mean, you got Seattle's bullpen is
1:02:15
Speaker 1: way to tax and Anaheim's bullpen is bad, obviously the
1:02:18
Speaker 1: way worse of the two bullpens, so I would keep
1:02:20
Speaker 1: it first five innings. Still a risk though, because I
1:02:23
Speaker 1: think both starting pitchers are real question marks here. But
1:02:26
Speaker 1: nine percent of cash on the over only eighty two.
1:02:29
Speaker 1: Nine percent of tickets on the over only eighty two
1:02:31
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over again, I guess
1:02:34
Speaker 1: do with all that information what you will. I'm just
1:02:37
Speaker 1: I'm giving you information, giving you my thoughts on it, man,
1:02:39
Speaker 1: and then to finish it off. Actually, we do have
1:02:41
Speaker 1: one other game that is a new series beginning, which
1:02:44
Speaker 1: is Colorado at San Diego. San Diego is still fighting, man.
1:02:48
Speaker 1: They're trying to potentially win their division, trying to at
1:02:51
Speaker 1: least make a wildcard here. They lost the last two
1:02:53
Speaker 1: games against Cincinnati in close games, so Cincinnati battling for
1:02:57
Speaker 1: wildcard potential as well. There. San Diego is staying at
1:03:01
Speaker 1: home while Colorado is having a travel in but Colorado's
1:03:04
Speaker 1: only traveling from La so not huge amount of traveling.
1:03:08
Speaker 1: It is a little bit of revenge for Colorado's They
1:03:10
Speaker 1: lost the last two games at home when they just
1:03:12
Speaker 1: faced San Diego two series ago. So there's a little
1:03:15
Speaker 1: bit of quick road revenge here for Colorado, which is
1:03:18
Speaker 1: a bit of a thing. It's a divisional matchup. I
1:03:20
Speaker 1: do think Colorado will be motivated for that reason, even
1:03:24
Speaker 1: though they're just playing out the stretch here, you know.
1:03:27
Speaker 1: I mean, it's been an embarrassing season for them, so
1:03:29
Speaker 1: they want to play for at least some semihace of pride,
1:03:31
Speaker 1: but they do want to potentially try to stick it
1:03:33
Speaker 1: to one of their division foes that just beat them
1:03:37
Speaker 1: in their own place and maybe spoil their season. They're
1:03:40
Speaker 1: also coming off getting swept by the Dodgers. I mean
1:03:43
Speaker 1: not really shame in that. I mean, obviously the Dodgers
1:03:45
Speaker 1: are the better team. Dodgers maybe starting to actually play
1:03:47
Speaker 1: better now. Colorado coming in off of that, and they
1:03:51
Speaker 1: got shut out in the last game. So some motivational
1:03:53
Speaker 1: aspects pointing towards Colorado here, but they of course do
1:03:56
Speaker 1: not have the matchup advantage in like any aspect of this.
1:04:00
Speaker 1: San Diego has the better bullpen, They are more rested here.
1:04:03
Speaker 1: San Diego has one of the best bullpens in baseball.
1:04:06
Speaker 1: Colorado's is one of the worst. Colorado bullpen usage not
1:04:10
Speaker 1: a lot of the last couple of days for them,
1:04:12
Speaker 1: but other bullpen is still really bad, So I don't
1:04:15
Speaker 1: think you can trust them. Second worst in baseball the
1:04:17
Speaker 1: ra West, and this is a significant gap with Colorado
1:04:20
Speaker 1: and washing It both at the very bottom there and
1:04:24
Speaker 1: San Diego by the way, and there's a huge bullpen discrepancy.
1:04:26
Speaker 1: San Diego at the very top in Bullpenny Ray. As
1:04:31
Speaker 1: far as the starting pitching, San Diego does have the
1:04:33
Speaker 1: better offense to Colorado's offense. Not very good, especially on
1:04:36
Speaker 1: the road, although this is a pitcher friendly park and
1:04:38
Speaker 1: San Diego doesn't hit particularly well at home either. Starting
1:04:42
Speaker 1: pitching mckaid Brown is pitching for Colorado. Young guy. I
1:04:45
Speaker 1: think this is his rookie season. Yeah, he's only made
1:04:47
Speaker 1: three starts in his career, but it hasn't been good.
1:04:50
Speaker 1: Twelve point five to four y ray, two point three
1:04:53
Speaker 1: six whips. He's been really bad. Hasn't made it past
1:04:55
Speaker 1: four innings. In any of them, He's allowed at least
1:04:57
Speaker 1: three ear in runs, and any of them has more
1:04:59
Speaker 1: walks and strikeouts. Really really bad. The only really really
1:05:05
Speaker 1: potent offense that he faces the Cobs, and the Cubs
1:05:07
Speaker 1: have actually been struggling offensively recently too, so that's not
1:05:10
Speaker 1: a good sign. He got blown up by Pittsburgh. Not good.
1:05:14
Speaker 1: Last time out he faced San Diego and San Diego
1:05:17
Speaker 1: drilled him for six earned runs and one to two thirds.
1:05:20
Speaker 1: Also bad. And the fact that now san Diego. San
1:05:22
Speaker 1: Diego went into that game never having faced him before,
1:05:25
Speaker 1: so if he was gonna have an advantage just should
1:05:27
Speaker 1: have been in that game where he was unfamiliar to them,
1:05:30
Speaker 1: didn't do well there. Now San Diego is familiar with him,
1:05:32
Speaker 1: so that's not good for Brown. So I don't really
1:05:35
Speaker 1: want any part of him in this game. Randy Vazquez's
1:05:38
Speaker 1: picture for San Diego, I don't like him either. I
1:05:41
Speaker 1: don't want any part of this guy either. Man, his
1:05:42
Speaker 1: numbers are not good. Three point nine one, he ra's fine,
1:05:46
Speaker 1: but one point three to eight whip bad. I mean,
1:05:49
Speaker 1: he's a guy he somehow gets away with a lot
1:05:51
Speaker 1: of stuff and don't doesn't allow that many runs, but
1:05:54
Speaker 1: he puts a ton of guys on base, especially via
1:05:56
Speaker 1: the walk, so he's pretty untrustworthy. He is a little
1:05:59
Speaker 1: bit better at home three point seventy seven ERA. At home,
1:06:04
Speaker 1: he missed almost a month and then he came back
1:06:07
Speaker 1: and he pitched against this Colorado team. So Colorado did
1:06:09
Speaker 1: just face him to although they're more familiar with him
1:06:11
Speaker 1: because he's been around forever. That was at Colorado. He
1:06:14
Speaker 1: went six innings in a in courtsefield. I mean, it's
1:06:17
Speaker 1: not that easy to pitch there. He only allowed two
1:06:19
Speaker 1: earned runs, three strikeouts, no walk, so he actually pitched
1:06:22
Speaker 1: pretty well in that game, numbers against Colorado and sixty
1:06:26
Speaker 1: five at bats are pretty good twelve to four strike
1:06:28
Speaker 1: a walk ratio two to thirty one batting averaged six
1:06:30
Speaker 1: to forty five ohps. So I mean San Diego does
1:06:33
Speaker 1: have all the advantages in this game. They should be
1:06:35
Speaker 1: able to win the game, but you got to pay
1:06:37
Speaker 1: a lot for them. They're up for minus two to
1:06:38
Speaker 1: fifty or down for minus two fifty or minus two forty.
1:06:41
Speaker 1: They're gonna be the public side. I mean, these numbers
1:06:43
Speaker 1: haven't really fleshed out yet, so we'll see what really
1:06:47
Speaker 1: happens with that. And then I wouldn't disagree with an
1:06:49
Speaker 1: over here, even though I know San Diego's bullpen isn't
1:06:52
Speaker 1: that bad, but Colorado's is really bad. Uh. And of
1:06:56
Speaker 1: course if the starting pitching exits the game earlier, you're
1:06:58
Speaker 1: gonna get more bullpend used to kind of dominoes into
1:07:01
Speaker 1: the rest of the game. Total did go up to
1:07:04
Speaker 1: eight and a half juice to the over from the
1:07:06
Speaker 1: eight and a half, but eighty two percent of tickets
1:07:08
Speaker 1: on the over, fifty one percent of catch with the
1:07:10
Speaker 1: under some money soon as you coming coming in on
1:07:13
Speaker 1: the under. I don't really agree with that, in my opinion,
1:07:15
Speaker 1: would be over in that game. Don't like the starting
1:07:18
Speaker 1: pitching matchup whatsoever. Really, even though I know Vaskaz a
1:07:22
Speaker 1: little bit better. What's up on Nate, thanks for hanging out.
1:07:25
Speaker 1: Vasquez certainly is the pitcher with the better numbers though,
1:07:29
Speaker 1: of the two and decent matchup members, at least against
1:07:32
Speaker 1: that bad Colorado team. Let's go to college football. We
1:07:35
Speaker 1: have one game, an ACC matchup tonight, NC State at
1:07:39
Speaker 1: Wake Forest. Money has come in on NC State and
1:07:42
Speaker 1: it's gone from the six and a half up through seven.
1:07:45
Speaker 1: So a bit of a key move there. I mean
1:07:47
Speaker 1: seven we know is a key number in football because
1:07:49
Speaker 1: it's the exact touchdown. So a decent percentage of games
1:07:53
Speaker 1: land on seven. So you want to get the best
1:07:55
Speaker 1: the best side of seven if you can. Fifty percent
1:07:57
Speaker 1: of tickets, sixty six percent of the cash coming in
1:07:59
Speaker 1: an NC State, so the money is coming in on
1:08:02
Speaker 1: the NC State side. It looks like not sure I
1:08:04
Speaker 1: necessarily agree with it. Total drop from fifty five and
1:08:08
Speaker 1: a half all the way down to fifty two. I
1:08:10
Speaker 1: think if you want the under, it's still maybe decent
1:08:13
Speaker 1: to take a shot on the under here and fifty
1:08:15
Speaker 1: one is a key number, and you're getting under better
1:08:18
Speaker 1: than fifty one and a half there, so maybe worth
1:08:21
Speaker 1: considering if you're looking at this game. I mean, it's
1:08:22
Speaker 1: not gonna be a game that I'm gonna recommend to
1:08:24
Speaker 1: play on, but seventy six percent of tickets, only seventy
1:08:27
Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the over, So the public,
1:08:29
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, coming in on the over basically just
1:08:31
Speaker 1: because that's their default. I mean, I don't know what
1:08:34
Speaker 1: they see an NC State in Wake fours as far
1:08:36
Speaker 1: as an over. I mean, it's not like we're looking
1:08:37
Speaker 1: at serious offenses in this game, but I mean it
1:08:42
Speaker 1: looks like we have a I was gonna say we
1:08:43
Speaker 1: have a little bit more Friday night action than usual
1:08:46
Speaker 1: tomorrow too, so I will talk about that tomorrow. Some
1:08:49
Speaker 1: of those games are actually better for handicapping purposes. Maybe
1:08:52
Speaker 1: we actually only have three FBS versus FBS matchups tomorrow.
1:08:56
Speaker 1: Though you like NC State, it was a six and
1:09:01
Speaker 1: a half y, I know it's a significant move, but
1:09:04
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I agree with with that side. Actually,
1:09:06
Speaker 1: even though they're obviously the better team looking at the schedule,
1:09:10
Speaker 1: NC State, they played the more difficult schedule as well.
1:09:12
Speaker 1: They played East Carolina, who's not a terrible team and
1:09:15
Speaker 1: is their in state rival. That was my first loss
1:09:19
Speaker 1: of the college season. I was pissed because I gave
1:09:21
Speaker 1: out NC State minus the points and they did have
1:09:23
Speaker 1: the lead by March and I gave it out at
1:09:25
Speaker 1: minus fourteen I think, and they were winning by seventeen
1:09:28
Speaker 1: in that game, I think, and they blew it. It
1:09:31
Speaker 1: was a revenge angle because NC State actually lost their
1:09:33
Speaker 1: bowl game to East Carolina last year. NC State they
1:09:36
Speaker 1: did bring back their quarterback last year, Bailey, who was
1:09:39
Speaker 1: a pretty decent quarterback. They've had some other turnover and
1:09:43
Speaker 1: they did win in their last game against UVA Virginia,
1:09:47
Speaker 1: and NC State had to come back in this game.
1:09:49
Speaker 1: NC State didn't have a great game. They were losing
1:09:52
Speaker 1: the game in the third quarter. They were actually losing
1:09:56
Speaker 1: by ten I believe at halftime. Right, yeah, they were
1:10:00
Speaker 1: losing my ten at halftime, and then they were able
1:10:03
Speaker 1: to take the lead much much later in the game.
1:10:05
Speaker 1: They actually wound up winning in dramatic fashion with the
1:10:08
Speaker 1: actually know that was still the third quarter, right, there
1:10:10
Speaker 1: were no points scored in the fourth quarter. What am
1:10:12
Speaker 1: I looking at here? Very strange flow of that game. Actually,
1:10:15
Speaker 1: I think nobody scored in the fourth quarter, so they
1:10:18
Speaker 1: did win in the third quarter with Hollywood Smothers, the
1:10:23
Speaker 1: great name there. They're running back there had a game
1:10:26
Speaker 1: winning touchdown run for NC State. I mean, so they
1:10:29
Speaker 1: do some talent. Their Smothers is actually not that bad,
1:10:32
Speaker 1: although he didn't get a lot of actually know he did.
1:10:35
Speaker 1: He had seventeen carries. What am I saying? He did
1:10:37
Speaker 1: pretty well in that game? Anyway, NC State they are
1:10:40
Speaker 1: definitely the better team Wake I mean, they've been kind
1:10:42
Speaker 1: of a bottom tier team in the ACC for a while.
1:10:46
Speaker 1: I believe they're undefeated, but they've had a pretty easy
1:10:48
Speaker 1: schedule so far. So both teams are two and zero.
1:10:51
Speaker 1: They barely beat Kennesas State in their first game, which
1:10:53
Speaker 1: is not a good sign. But maybe they just were
1:10:57
Speaker 1: taking them very very lightly. It was the first game
1:10:59
Speaker 1: of the season. Maybe weren't ready for it. Wake Forest
1:11:02
Speaker 1: almost losing is a huge favor and a lot of
1:11:04
Speaker 1: times I say they're an eighteen and a half point favorite.
1:11:07
Speaker 1: There a lot of times when that happens, I say
1:11:09
Speaker 1: that team's gonna refocus after that, because when a big
1:11:12
Speaker 1: favorite almost loses a game, they really shouldn't lose, they
1:11:15
Speaker 1: get drilled during practice the next week, which I think
1:11:18
Speaker 1: is probably what happened. They had a really easy opponent
1:11:20
Speaker 1: in Western Carolina and they blew them out. But now
1:11:24
Speaker 1: they're playing another home game, so wake Forest is not
1:11:26
Speaker 1: traveling and this is their home ACC opener, so at
1:11:30
Speaker 1: the very least, I think it's gonna be a raucous
1:11:32
Speaker 1: environment here. I know it's not much travel for NCA State,
1:11:35
Speaker 1: it's a short week, but I don't think the travel
1:11:37
Speaker 1: really matters because of course NC State, they're just traveling
1:11:39
Speaker 1: within the state of North Carolina, so that doesn't really matter.
1:11:42
Speaker 1: But I think the game matters more to wake Forest
1:11:45
Speaker 1: because it is their home opener in the ACC and
1:11:49
Speaker 1: they're always the little brother right now man to all
1:11:51
Speaker 1: these other North Carolina schools, to NC State, Duke, UNC,
1:11:55
Speaker 1: wake Forest is playing like little brother to all of them, man,
1:11:58
Speaker 1: So I think that puts an extra chip on wake
1:12:01
Speaker 1: forest shoulder. The question just is do they have enough
1:12:04
Speaker 1: talent to be able to do this year? So I
1:12:06
Speaker 1: actually lean to wake Forest in this game slightly. And
1:12:09
Speaker 1: NC State has a bigger North Carolina matchup next. They
1:12:11
Speaker 1: have to go to Duke next Saturday, so that is
1:12:14
Speaker 1: a bigger game for them as well, So something to
1:12:17
Speaker 1: keep in mind there. My slang lean would be against
1:12:21
Speaker 1: what the market is saying. I do lean to the
1:12:23
Speaker 1: under in this game as well, and I think the
1:12:24
Speaker 1: under might help out the underdogs. Of course, if it's
1:12:28
Speaker 1: a lower scoring game, the points are worth more. I
1:12:30
Speaker 1: think wake Forest is going to want to get this
1:12:32
Speaker 1: into an uglier style of game here to try to
1:12:35
Speaker 1: keep the ball out of NC State's possession. So I
1:12:39
Speaker 1: think wake Forest is going to try to want to
1:12:41
Speaker 1: slow They're gonna want to try to slow this game down.
1:12:44
Speaker 1: They play more of an uglier style here. I honestly
1:12:47
Speaker 1: don't even know who wake Forest starters are here, man,
1:12:50
Speaker 1: I couldn't tell you their quarterback is Ashford. I honestly
1:12:54
Speaker 1: don't even know who he is. But we're three games
1:12:57
Speaker 1: into the season, now we got we're talking about guys
1:12:59
Speaker 1: at least have some experience lose. Like Ashford played a
1:13:02
Speaker 1: little bit in the SEC, although he wasn't that good,
1:13:04
Speaker 1: but he was facing SEC defenses, so face facing ACC
1:13:09
Speaker 1: defenses is a step down there. Uh So, if you're
1:13:12
Speaker 1: familiar with SEC defenses, you should have an easier time
1:13:15
Speaker 1: against ACC defenses. So slight lean for me to Wake
1:13:19
Speaker 1: Forest in that one man half hour drive an hour
1:13:24
Speaker 1: and a half drive. Yeah, yeah, so I mean yeah,
1:13:27
Speaker 1: I mean, of course that does also mean an NC state,
1:13:29
Speaker 1: they're gonna show up their fan base. They want a
1:13:32
Speaker 1: reason to get out and party. I mean the you
1:13:34
Speaker 1: know their fan base is gonna travel and show up
1:13:36
Speaker 1: for that game too. That is something to keep in
1:13:38
Speaker 1: mind there as well. But my slight lean would be
1:13:40
Speaker 1: to taking the points with Wake in that one. Robbie Ashford, yeah,
1:13:44
Speaker 1: he was on Auburn and South Carolina apparently very briefly.
1:13:48
Speaker 1: And then we have Thursday night football with Washington at
1:13:50
Speaker 1: Green Bay Thursday night. General things to keep in mind
1:13:54
Speaker 1: on Thursday night, the home team usually has an advantage
1:13:58
Speaker 1: because the road team is having to travel to that stadium,
1:14:01
Speaker 1: and it's more of an advantage if the home team
1:14:04
Speaker 1: is more unfamiliar to the opponent. So like the home team,
1:14:07
Speaker 1: Dons have the least advantage on Thursday night when they're
1:14:10
Speaker 1: playing a divisional team because the divisional team is used
1:14:13
Speaker 1: to playing there every year, so they're more used to
1:14:16
Speaker 1: making that travel, so the short week hampers them a
1:14:18
Speaker 1: little bit less. This, of course, Washington is less familiar
1:14:22
Speaker 1: with going to green Bay, so that does give green
1:14:26
Speaker 1: Bay a little bit of an edge with the short week.
1:14:27
Speaker 1: And green Bay is also not traveling at all, so
1:14:30
Speaker 1: there is a bit of an edge with the short
1:14:33
Speaker 1: week for green Bay in this game. So just something
1:14:35
Speaker 1: to keep in mind. And as far as the total,
1:14:37
Speaker 1: Thursday nights tend to be lower scoring generally, but the
1:14:40
Speaker 1: games that are the lowest scoring are also divisional matchups
1:14:43
Speaker 1: where the teams know each other's tendencies and they know
1:14:46
Speaker 1: how to defend against them. When the teams are less
1:14:49
Speaker 1: familiar familiar with each other, you can tend to see
1:14:52
Speaker 1: a little bit more scoring, and I think that might
1:14:54
Speaker 1: be actually the better way to look at this game
1:14:56
Speaker 1: rather than the side. I don't love trying to figure
1:14:59
Speaker 1: out the side this game. Man, Like I have to
1:15:01
Speaker 1: pick these and pick them at least it's not gonna
1:15:03
Speaker 1: be a play for me. It's not gonna be in
1:15:04
Speaker 1: my money pick them where you just have to make
1:15:06
Speaker 1: your best five picks. I don't love the side in
1:15:09
Speaker 1: this game, and I do think the over is worth
1:15:11
Speaker 1: a look. It's not from forty eight and a half
1:15:12
Speaker 1: to forty nine now juice to the over, So the
1:15:14
Speaker 1: line is going up. Although we see sixty eight percent
1:15:17
Speaker 1: of tickets on the over sixty six percent of the cash,
1:15:19
Speaker 1: so less of the cash. But I think you might
1:15:22
Speaker 1: see an over in this game, man, because the teams
1:15:24
Speaker 1: are a little bit less familiar with each other, so
1:15:26
Speaker 1: they don't know as much about how to defend each
1:15:28
Speaker 1: other's offenses. And we're talking about especially on the Washington side. Washington,
1:15:33
Speaker 1: they're basically all offense. Their defense is not that good,
1:15:36
Speaker 1: and their offense, we know, is pretty good, even though
1:15:38
Speaker 1: I do think their offense is gonna take a step
1:15:39
Speaker 1: back this year again because it's that I don't know,
1:15:42
Speaker 1: I don't know if we should call it the sophomore slump,
1:15:44
Speaker 1: but the same thing that we saw with CJ. Stroud
1:15:47
Speaker 1: last year. Sometimes what happens is a rookie quarterback overperforms
1:15:52
Speaker 1: a little bit because they take the league by storm,
1:15:54
Speaker 1: and the league doesn't know what that offense is gonna
1:15:56
Speaker 1: do yet, and now they have an entire year of
1:15:58
Speaker 1: game film and no what that offense is gonna do.
1:16:01
Speaker 1: Sometimes that offense will take a little bit of a
1:16:02
Speaker 1: step back as far as Washington is concerned. They just
1:16:07
Speaker 1: beat nobody's gonna really put much stock into their win,
1:16:10
Speaker 1: so there are some reasons to maybe look for the
1:16:12
Speaker 1: Giants here, by the way, or excuse to look for
1:16:15
Speaker 1: Washington in this game. There are some reasons why the
1:16:17
Speaker 1: situation might dictate taking the boys with Washington, which I'll
1:16:21
Speaker 1: talk about in a second, but I have some pushback
1:16:25
Speaker 1: against that as well. But anyway, Yeah, I think the
1:16:28
Speaker 1: over is something that I would argue less with, so
1:16:30
Speaker 1: I think it makes more sense to go over in
1:16:32
Speaker 1: this game. Again, I think you could see Washington give
1:16:35
Speaker 1: up some points here. Both offenses are pretty solid in
1:16:38
Speaker 1: my opinion. I think the Packers offense looked worse than
1:16:41
Speaker 1: it should have been last year because Jordan Love was
1:16:43
Speaker 1: just hampered with injuries last year and he's more healthy now.
1:16:47
Speaker 1: I think the Packers' offense actually gets overlooked man because
1:16:50
Speaker 1: it's like it's Love and nobody else basically. But I mean,
1:16:53
Speaker 1: they do have a decent surrounding cast there. They have
1:16:55
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs, they can run the football. They have pretty
1:16:58
Speaker 1: good wide receivers actually as well dependable wide receiver, so
1:17:02
Speaker 1: that offense is not bad and I think they could
1:17:04
Speaker 1: certainly score against the Washington defense that is still not
1:17:07
Speaker 1: very good. I know they looked good last time out.
1:17:09
Speaker 1: I know that was one of my losses in Week
1:17:11
Speaker 1: one against the Giants Washington. I mean, holding the Giants
1:17:16
Speaker 1: down isn't really that impressive. Man. Russell Wilson just stunk
1:17:20
Speaker 1: in that game. I don't know what else to tell you.
1:17:22
Speaker 1: The Giants, Yeah, they just suck offensively. Right now, They've
1:17:25
Speaker 1: got to go to Jackson dart Man. Russell Wilson is washed.
1:17:29
Speaker 1: I think he's done. There. You go with Brian Daball there.
1:17:31
Speaker 1: I call him dough ball. He's got to answer questions. Man,
1:17:35
Speaker 1: gotta go with Jackson Dart Russell Wilson, he's done. He sucked.
1:17:39
Speaker 1: He was absolutely abysmal in the game. And I don't
1:17:41
Speaker 1: really think it was Washington's defense that really did anything.
1:17:44
Speaker 1: Washington did have a really good rushing attack in the game,
1:17:47
Speaker 1: so that is something to worry about. They ran all
1:17:49
Speaker 1: over the place, but they might not be able to
1:17:51
Speaker 1: do that against this defense the Giants. By the way,
1:17:55
Speaker 1: I'm actually kind of surprised though, because I kind of
1:17:56
Speaker 1: like the Giants front seven. I think their front seven
1:17:59
Speaker 1: is more of a pass rushing front seven. But anyway, I
1:18:02
Speaker 1: don't know Washington. I think they're gonna be more up
1:18:05
Speaker 1: against it against green Bay than they were against the Giants.
1:18:09
Speaker 1: But again, also, the public won't put much stock into
1:18:11
Speaker 1: Washington beating Giants, right, so the public won't really think
1:18:16
Speaker 1: anything of Washington beating the Giants. The public will put
1:18:21
Speaker 1: much more weight on the fact that green Bay looked
1:18:24
Speaker 1: really good in the first week against Detroit, because everybody
1:18:27
Speaker 1: remembers how good Detroit was, right, and of course I
1:18:31
Speaker 1: think the public sentiment will be, well, if green Bay
1:18:33
Speaker 1: could beat Detroit. Well, actually, no, I guess what sentiment
1:18:37
Speaker 1: will they have because if green Bay beat Detroit, but
1:18:38
Speaker 1: Washington also beat Detroit last year of the playoffs, what
1:18:41
Speaker 1: am I thinking? So the public won't do that like
1:18:44
Speaker 1: transitive thing in this case. But anyway, I think the
1:18:46
Speaker 1: public's gonna put way more stock in the fact that
1:18:49
Speaker 1: green Bay beat Detroit. And we know Detroit was very
1:18:52
Speaker 1: prolific offensively last year, but Detroit looked like they were
1:18:55
Speaker 1: really hampered by the fact they lost Ben Johnson Man,
1:18:57
Speaker 1: their offensive coordinator from last year who's now the head
1:19:00
Speaker 1: coach of the Bears. Jared Goff looked lost without him,
1:19:04
Speaker 1: And I know I gave out green Bay as a
1:19:05
Speaker 1: lean on my show. In that game, I didn't give
1:19:07
Speaker 1: it out as a play. A couple of professionals that
1:19:10
Speaker 1: I follow actually did wind up having green Bay as
1:19:12
Speaker 1: one of the plays they gave out. But one stat
1:19:16
Speaker 1: that I was not aware of going into that game
1:19:18
Speaker 1: was Jared Goff is over nineteen now in games where
1:19:23
Speaker 1: he does not have either Sean McVay as his head
1:19:25
Speaker 1: coach or Ben Johnson as his offensive coordinator. So in
1:19:29
Speaker 1: games that he doesn't have either of those guys, like
1:19:32
Speaker 1: one or the other because he's never had both, I
1:19:34
Speaker 1: don't think. But when he hasn't had one or the other,
1:19:37
Speaker 1: he's oh to nineteen. That is insane, dude. So like,
1:19:40
Speaker 1: is Jared Goff? Is he actually not that good? And
1:19:43
Speaker 1: is he just a product of the coaches? I'm not
1:19:45
Speaker 1: ready to say that, but I don't know, man. I mean,
1:19:48
Speaker 1: they were released some definite growing pains there with Detroit
1:19:50
Speaker 1: having to deal with having new coordinators on both sides
1:19:53
Speaker 1: of the football, man, and they had a bad game.
1:19:56
Speaker 1: So I do think the public will put more stock
1:19:57
Speaker 1: into that game for gen. But green Bay doesn't have
1:20:01
Speaker 1: anything up next really, they just play Cleveland next, So
1:20:03
Speaker 1: I do think both teams are still gonna show up
1:20:05
Speaker 1: focused here. So even though the public is sort of
1:20:08
Speaker 1: on green Bay only fifty five percent, but we see
1:20:11
Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the ticket see fifty five percent
1:20:13
Speaker 1: of the cash, and fifty six percent of the tickets
1:20:15
Speaker 1: are on the green Bay side, and they're up from
1:20:18
Speaker 1: two and a half to three with juice, So it
1:20:20
Speaker 1: looks like the money is actually coming in on the
1:20:21
Speaker 1: Packers slightly at least. So I know, obviously, if you
1:20:26
Speaker 1: like Washington, you could probably take three. You could probably
1:20:28
Speaker 1: get a three and a half on Washington. There were
1:20:30
Speaker 1: three and a half's out there for a while. And
1:20:31
Speaker 1: if the public comes in later tonight and they do
1:20:34
Speaker 1: play the Packers, I think you'll definitely be able to
1:20:36
Speaker 1: get a three and a half. If you like the Packers,
1:20:39
Speaker 1: I mean, you should lay three or maybe play the
1:20:42
Speaker 1: money line. I mean, I don't think you're gonna get
1:20:45
Speaker 1: like a straight three though, probably so you might have
1:20:46
Speaker 1: to go money line on the Packers maybe, or maybe
1:20:50
Speaker 1: you like them, you just suck it up and you
1:20:51
Speaker 1: do just lay the worst of the number. But I
1:20:54
Speaker 1: don't know, man, And maybe you still find a three
1:20:57
Speaker 1: out there, maybe a three with reduced with juice. That's
1:20:59
Speaker 1: not won twenty maybe on the three. I mean, I'm
1:21:04
Speaker 1: torn on this game, man, because coming into the season,
1:21:07
Speaker 1: if you listen to my season preview, I was all
1:21:10
Speaker 1: about Washington's gonna take a step back this year because
1:21:13
Speaker 1: I don't think their offense could be as good as
1:21:15
Speaker 1: it was last year, and they just took everybody by surprise.
1:21:17
Speaker 1: And I thought green Bay was gonna be better this
1:21:19
Speaker 1: year that people think because Love was just hampered with
1:21:21
Speaker 1: injuries last year. And if you saw my show with Clint,
1:21:25
Speaker 1: I actually said green Bay would win the NFC. And
1:21:29
Speaker 1: now green Bay doesn't have Michael Parsons, although I know
1:21:31
Speaker 1: he has to get like an epidural before every game,
1:21:33
Speaker 1: but he was decent in that first game. I mean,
1:21:35
Speaker 1: he definitely was a positive contributor in that first game.
1:21:39
Speaker 1: So that's not a bad thing for green Bay either.
1:21:41
Speaker 1: I actually think green Bay's defense is not that bad.
1:21:44
Speaker 1: I actually think their defense is the better of the
1:21:46
Speaker 1: two defense this year. So I'm very torn on this
1:21:49
Speaker 1: game because situations you'd think, well, the Packers should be
1:21:52
Speaker 1: in a little bit of a letdown spot, right, because
1:21:53
Speaker 1: that was a monumental win basically over Detroit. After the
1:21:57
Speaker 1: Packers couldn't beat Detroit last year. They finally kind of
1:22:00
Speaker 1: got over the hump that way, they beat the team
1:22:02
Speaker 1: that's won the division in the last year or maybe
1:22:05
Speaker 1: even two years. That was a huge win for the Packers.
1:22:08
Speaker 1: So I understand that it's a letdown spot, but the
1:22:11
Speaker 1: fact that I think the Packers are still actually the
1:22:13
Speaker 1: better team over Washington here and you're basically only getting
1:22:16
Speaker 1: home field advantage on the line here, like the Packers
1:22:19
Speaker 1: probably about a three point home advantage here in Lambeau,
1:22:22
Speaker 1: even though I know it's not cold weather yet, so
1:22:24
Speaker 1: Jaydon Daniels, the LSU guy, won't be out of his
1:22:28
Speaker 1: element here yet because it's not gonna be that cold
1:22:30
Speaker 1: for this game. It'll probably be cool at night, but
1:22:33
Speaker 1: not cold. So yeah, all that to consider there. But again,
1:22:39
Speaker 1: I think the Packers are actually potentially even being short
1:22:42
Speaker 1: changed on this line. Man. I know that it opened
1:22:44
Speaker 1: lower than this at two and a half, and I
1:22:46
Speaker 1: know that when you get into weeks two and beyond,
1:22:49
Speaker 1: you want to look at the look aheadlines, right, because
1:22:50
Speaker 1: the look ahead lines, you want to see what was
1:22:52
Speaker 1: the line before, what was the line for this week
1:22:56
Speaker 1: before last week's results happened, Right, So I actually I
1:22:59
Speaker 1: tracked that. I can bring it up right now. I'll
1:23:01
Speaker 1: bring it up just for myself here because I have
1:23:03
Speaker 1: it in a document. I have the documents. Let me
1:23:07
Speaker 1: see where do I have it? Yeah? Here it is.
1:23:10
Speaker 1: This line was actually three, so it didn't actually move much.
1:23:13
Speaker 1: So the line before last week's games were played had
1:23:16
Speaker 1: Green Bay minus three here. So that is something to
1:23:18
Speaker 1: look at because that's how you kind of gauge overreactions,
1:23:21
Speaker 1: especially week two. We know it is overreaction week. So
1:23:24
Speaker 1: week two, everybody's gonna overreact to what happened in week one, right,
1:23:27
Speaker 1: I mean, it's one game. Everybody puts too much stock
1:23:30
Speaker 1: into one game. So yes, if you go with the
1:23:32
Speaker 1: overreaction theory, probably people should be overreacting more to the
1:23:36
Speaker 1: Packers win because nobody really gives a shit that Washington
1:23:39
Speaker 1: be a Giants team that's not expected to be any good.
1:23:42
Speaker 1: So yes, I mean, I know if you fade the overreaction,
1:23:45
Speaker 1: you'd be thinking, yeah, you'd take the points with Washington.
1:23:47
Speaker 1: But again, the line was basically it hasn't really changed
1:23:51
Speaker 1: from what the look ahead was, so there wasn't really
1:23:52
Speaker 1: an overreaction in the line to what happened. Last week
1:23:55
Speaker 1: it's still at three. So before last week's games were played,
1:23:58
Speaker 1: it was at three. Now it's with three again. Yeah,
1:24:03
Speaker 1: just something to keep in mind there as far as
1:24:04
Speaker 1: the line is concerned. And because the Packers are not
1:24:08
Speaker 1: traveling and it's a bit unfamiliar for Washington, they do
1:24:10
Speaker 1: have to go on the short week here. Yeah, I
1:24:13
Speaker 1: mean I might slightly disagree with Washington here, man, I
1:24:15
Speaker 1: might slightly lean to the Packers here, but I think
1:24:18
Speaker 1: the over is the better way to look at that game.
1:24:20
Speaker 1: And that's gonna do it. Man. That's the breakdown for today.
1:24:23
Speaker 1: I mean I was able to get through through all
1:24:26
Speaker 1: of it here. Curtis, you like Washington by field goal?
1:24:29
Speaker 1: I mean certainly that could definitely happen. I could certainly
1:24:32
Speaker 1: be a I could certainly see it being a close game,
1:24:36
Speaker 1: which in that case you probably do want to look
1:24:37
Speaker 1: for it's taking the points. But something tells me, man,
1:24:41
Speaker 1: I'm kind of just going with my feelings coming into
1:24:43
Speaker 1: the season that has been leaning Green Bay just very
1:24:47
Speaker 1: very slightly here. Jameis Winston, Yeah, I like Jamis. Jamis
1:24:52
Speaker 1: is hilarious. I like him. I think he's a talented quarterback.
1:24:55
Speaker 1: He just gets shafted because he throws too many picks. Man,
1:24:59
Speaker 1: He's way better than Russell Wilson. But I want Jackson
1:25:01
Speaker 1: Dart Man. They got to get him the experience. Nobody's
1:25:04
Speaker 1: expecting the Giants to be good this year anyway, So
1:25:06
Speaker 1: what do you have to lose? You already lost Week
1:25:08
Speaker 1: one horribly. Russell Wilson is obviously not the guy. I
1:25:13
Speaker 1: think the Giants should trade Jamis man. I want to
1:25:15
Speaker 1: see Jamis starting. I think Jamis should go back to
1:25:17
Speaker 1: New Orleans. New Orleans Quarterbacks sock, So I think you
1:25:21
Speaker 1: should go back there and get a chance to starting
1:25:23
Speaker 1: in there. That would be my opinion. I think that
1:25:26
Speaker 1: it's Jackson dart time, man, that this is why you
1:25:28
Speaker 1: drafted him. You're not gonna do anything this season, man, probably,
1:25:33
Speaker 1: so why not just put Dart out there and see
1:25:34
Speaker 1: what happens. He's such a wildcard that who knows. Like,
1:25:38
Speaker 1: I think that the ceiling is way way higher with
1:25:40
Speaker 1: Jackson Dart for the Giants, right like with Russell Wilson,
1:25:44
Speaker 1: you pretty much know you're just gonna be stuck in
1:25:46
Speaker 1: this like mediocrity at best, and you're not gonna go anywhere.
1:25:50
Speaker 1: With Jackson Dart you might actually even have a ceiling
1:25:52
Speaker 1: of maybe you're even like potentially vibe for maybe getting
1:25:56
Speaker 1: into the playoffs or something like. Who even knows. I
1:25:58
Speaker 1: think that ceiling is just way high with Dart out there,
1:26:01
Speaker 1: So that's what I think they should do. Thank you, sir,
1:26:05
Speaker 1: and yes I agree, Jamis is also better than Russell Wilson.
1:26:07
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson is old and washed. Thank you guys for
1:26:11
Speaker 1: hanging out. I don't have any place today, I apologize,
1:26:13
Speaker 1: but hopefully that info is good and hopefully it helps
1:26:15
Speaker 1: you out with your bets and your pick'ems and whatever
1:26:17
Speaker 1: else you guys are doing today. That's gonna do it
1:26:20
Speaker 1: for me. Learn to tone on Twitter, learn to tone
1:26:21
Speaker 1: on Instagram. Better off dead of course, Like subscribe to
1:26:25
Speaker 1: the channel Let's get me monetized, baby, and then review
1:26:29
Speaker 1: and listen on the audio platforms. That helps me out
1:26:31
Speaker 1: as well, because it's monetize over there, because I have ads. Yep.
1:26:35
Speaker 1: Rip to Charlie. Didn't agree with him on everything, but
1:26:38
Speaker 1: it looks like he might have not been as pro
1:26:40
Speaker 1: Israel as people might actually think on the surface. Man,
1:26:44
Speaker 1: I don't know what actually happened there, but there might
1:26:46
Speaker 1: be something going on that's more than what people think,
1:26:49
Speaker 1: and they're not telling us any information, which always is sketchy. Dude,
1:26:53
Speaker 1: I feel really bad for his family. I mean, very
1:26:56
Speaker 1: very sad. I'm still shaken by it again, even if
1:26:58
Speaker 1: you don't agree with them on every everything. By all accounts,
1:27:03
Speaker 1: people that met him, knew him, said he was a
1:27:05
Speaker 1: good dude. He's a father of young children, he's a husband.
1:27:08
Speaker 1: Fuck man, don't don't make me tear up again, man.
1:27:11
Speaker 1: And people that knew him, like in the sphere said
1:27:13
Speaker 1: that he was nice to them when you know, being
1:27:15
Speaker 1: on panels with them and you know, going to debate
1:27:17
Speaker 1: them and whatever, and he never you know, got you know,
1:27:21
Speaker 1: he never like debated in like an underhanded way or
1:27:24
Speaker 1: anything like that, resorted to you know, name calling or
1:27:27
Speaker 1: anything like that, even though I'm certainly not above that myself.
1:27:30
Speaker 1: But I mean he made I mean, he made his
1:27:32
Speaker 1: bones defeating a bunch of college leftists basically who just
1:27:35
Speaker 1: don't know what the fuck they're talking about. Of course,
1:27:37
Speaker 1: so he was obviously going to destroy them in debates,
1:27:39
Speaker 1: but he did it, you know, in a he he
1:27:43
Speaker 1: did it in in you know, a uh, what's the
1:27:45
Speaker 1: word I'm looking for in a respectful way, you know
1:27:47
Speaker 1: what I mean? So that was that was always his thing. Man,
1:27:51
Speaker 1: uh yeah, obviously did not deserve that at all. I
1:27:55
Speaker 1: mean fuck man, Yes, thank you, sir eh Man. Anyway,
1:27:59
Speaker 1: what was I oh yeah, better off dead. You can
1:28:02
Speaker 1: listen on the audio. That helps me out just by
1:28:04
Speaker 1: listening on the audio. So you can do that Spotify,
1:28:06
Speaker 1: Apple and give me reviews. Let's pump this baby up,
1:28:09
Speaker 1: hopefully with football season. Hopefully we're gonna start turning it
1:28:12
Speaker 1: around again. We've been hitting We've hit another bit of
1:28:14
Speaker 1: a lull here. Football is off to an okay start
1:28:17
Speaker 1: because college football was good last week, so we're we're
1:28:20
Speaker 1: doing all right in football. I think we're right around
1:28:22
Speaker 1: five hundred though so far. So I want to do
1:28:24
Speaker 1: better obviously, because five hundred is not good enough to win.
1:28:27
Speaker 1: So we got to keep going. Let's turn the ship around,
1:28:30
Speaker 1: have a good last couple months of the year here
1:28:33
Speaker 1: before the BBB kicks in and then we can't make
1:28:36
Speaker 1: any money betting anymore. Curtis, you like the Niners. I
1:28:40
Speaker 1: still there's still my pick to win the division. I
1:28:42
Speaker 1: have a hard time at handicapping them right now, but
1:28:44
Speaker 1: we'll talk about that on my NFL show, So be
1:28:47
Speaker 1: aware of that. Remember Tomorrow night, I'm gonna have my
1:28:49
Speaker 1: Saturday college football show. Will be Tomorrow night while the
1:28:52
Speaker 1: Friday night games are going on still and then Saturday
1:28:55
Speaker 1: Night I do the NFL Show to talk about all
1:28:57
Speaker 1: the Sunday NFL games where we'll talk about the forty
1:29:00
Speaker 1: nine ers. I talk about the Monday night games in
1:29:02
Speaker 1: that show too. Uh so that's gonna do it. Yeah.
1:29:04
Speaker 1: They they fired or cut Moody or whatever they brought
1:29:09
Speaker 1: who's their kicker? They brought back a carrier. He's an
1:29:11
Speaker 1: experienced kicker, But I'm not sure he's that good man Eddie.
1:29:15
Speaker 1: What's his name? Not Pinero? What's his name? I forget,
1:29:18
Speaker 1: whatever his name is, I'm not I'm not sure that
1:29:19
Speaker 1: he's that good man. I don't. I don't know about
1:29:23
Speaker 1: that move, to be honest. And Brock Purdy is injured now,
1:29:26
Speaker 1: so somebody keep in mind coming into that game. Did
1:29:29
Speaker 1: I get it right, Pinero? I got it right? Oh yeah, Pinero.
1:29:35
Speaker 1: All I'm thinking of is Joel Pinero. If you guys
1:29:38
Speaker 1: are as old as I am, you remember him being
1:29:40
Speaker 1: a starting pitcher for like the Seattle Mariners and maybe
1:29:43
Speaker 1: some other teams way back in the day. I don't
1:29:45
Speaker 1: even remember if he was any good or not, but
1:29:46
Speaker 1: I remember his name anyway. Yeah, I'm talking too much here.
1:29:50
Speaker 1: Covered in you because my yuke channel on on ukuleles,
1:29:53
Speaker 1: so go uh check that out as well, and patreon
1:29:56
Speaker 1: dot com sash learned a tone. I gotta get the
1:29:58
Speaker 1: patroon fee going again. I know him way high on
1:30:00
Speaker 1: that with the stuff that I put on the on
1:30:02
Speaker 1: the covered in yuke channel. Maybe I'll get that done today.
1:30:05
Speaker 1: Got some stuff to do with the I'm still trying
1:30:07
Speaker 1: to find work as well. So put it out there, man,
1:30:10
Speaker 1: maybe software engineering. If any right wing companies want somebody,
1:30:14
Speaker 1: let's go. I've been doing it for two decades, so
1:30:18
Speaker 1: we're more than that really, but two decades in the
1:30:20
Speaker 1: actual field. Let's do it. But everybody, have a good Thursday.
1:30:25
Speaker 1: Peace out for now, guys, and yeah, prayers for Charlie
1:30:28
Speaker 1: Kirk's family as well, and peace out everybody.