Latest / Minnows Football / Matchweek 11: West Ham vs everyone, plus Birmingham City, Norwich, lower leagues and more.
Transcript
- Sam: Welcome along to the Minnows Football Podcast. It is Thursday, October 22. My name is Sam Martin, your host here at Minnows Football. And it's going to be a lightning round two part of today. We're going to start with the championship and then go through three burning questions that I've got there at the top and the bottom of the table to try to answer. And then we're going to check in on other parts of the EFL Pyramid, the EPL, the lower leagues, and just check on how underdogs are performing in all of those different leagues. And how those leagues are starting to take shape here about 10 or 11 games into the season. Before we begin, check out the belief index on MinnowsFootball.com. Updated every Monday. Sign up for the Minnows Football Substack from there as well. get some pieces delivered to your inbox every week. And let's jump in. And starting with the top of the championship this week, and I have a two-part question to kind of kick us off up here. Firstly, is there really a gap between West Ham and The other sides at the top of the championship. This is something I've seen talked about. If you go and look at how pundits are talking about the championship after this last weekend, especially after I think it was a really kind of natural time to talk about it coming out of that West Ham Swansea game. But people are saying it's West Ham and the rest, and West Ham are are inevitable. And there's a gap between West Ham and these other clubs. So I was interested, first of all, is there a gap between West Ham and the other clubs? And secondly, how big is that gap if there is one? And who is this other group of clubs that we're talking about? And who should we put into that group? And so let's start with establishing the top of the table and how you might measure that gap. So if we look at a few different metrics of how West Ham's performing in this first part of the season, we do see there are a number of things where they are kind of far above in front their closest competitors. Goal scoring output, they've scored 30 goals across 11 games. That's crazy. That's averaging almost three goals a game. Their next closest team is Swansea. They've got 16. So they're almost doubling up in terms of goal scoring output. The goal difference is also doubled the next top. So they've got a plus eighteen goal difference, obviously tied to goals scored. next top is Birmingham with nine, Swansea at eight. And their XG is two point four three. So they've got Just crazy attacking power. Now, that's partly a little bit who they've played, but it's also that they've really blown out a lot of teams. And I think that's what you're feeling when you're hearing this kind of groundswell behind West Ham. You're, you're people are feeling the fact that this club looks and feels a lot better than the other clubs that they're taking on and the other clubs they see at the top of the table. That said, that battle against Swansea this week, that was a really well-fought game. And there were many moments, especially in the second half. When it felt like Swansea was going to come back and and equalize and maybe even win, they certainly had the chance to do that. The reason is that even as strong as they've been, and from attack an attacking perspective, West Ham, defensively they have been poor. And there's been a lot talked about with regards to this. And I think it comes back to the fact that, you know, Nuno Spirito Santo is trying to transition this team from where what they were last year in the Premier League to what they are in the championship and have to be in the championship. And those two types of teams are. kind of at polar opposites in terms of their the way they play the game and their strategic goals. In the Premier, Premier League, you know, West Ham was a low block team trying to eke out wins and draws and trying to survive, especially towards the the back half of the season. This year they have to be this kind of ball dominant championship team with a level of talent that far surpasses what every other club can really put together. And that's a massive shift strategically. And I think that's what you're seeing in some of the the problems they've had defensively. that they are they're struggling to have both these things in their mind at once. You really can't be both these things. They are a team that's pushing really well and being really direct and scoring lots of goals. But on the flip side, they're not defending super well. And it's not just that they're not defending well, it's that they are at times not showing the kind of urgency if they lose the ball in their back third, for example, to really come back and and Take over and try and win it again. and you saw that sort of in the West West Ham Swansea game this week, and you've seen in in other games where they've struggled a little bit. And so there's definitely there's definitely a gap there in terms of goal scored. There's definitely an opportunity for West Ham to get better at the back. I think the other critical thing that's going on right now, though, is that the gap in some ways can just be boiled down to the fact that they have Jared Bowen. He's clearly the best player in the championship. Right now. And if you think back into other years, he may be the best player that the championship has had over the last few years. He's had 11 appearances so far. So he's been in every game, six goals, five assists. So he's averaging either creating a goal or scoring a goal in every single game that he's played so far. He's near the top of the championship assist leaderboard. He's created 21 total chances. He's in the 99th percentile for XG. In championship midfielders and wingers. And so all of his advanced stats stack up, but he's also just this incredible culture setter. He's pure class, but he also has humility. He's a hard worker. He's a true leader in the best way that you could hope to have a leader in the championship. He's really kind of pushing and willing his side along and getting them to results. So I think there is a gap between West Ham and that group just right behind them. Now, that doesn't mean that that's necessarily going to They're gonna run away with it, although that's kind of what it it's starting to look a little bit like. there's potential injuries, there's the potential that some of these other squads will really strengthen themselves in the January window and be able to get up a little bit closer in terms of of skill to that West Ham level. But if this was the the kind of squads that we had going forward, you would have to say that West Ham is the best club in the championship and not breaking any news saying that, but that's what it feels like, and it feels like there is. This gap there. So in this the second part to that question, who is in the group that can challenge West Ham? And if not that, challenge for that second automatic promotion spot. And so I think there's a number of clubs there that make logical sense. You know, you've got clubs like Swansea, who are still top of the table. tr more traditional challenges over the last couple of years, clubs like Middlesbrough, Southampton. and then you have this crop probably Wolverhampton you'd put in that group as well, obviously as a recently relegated club and playing well. But then you've got this group of of other clubs that are really threatening in different ways, in the same way that kind of Wrexham, Derby, Millwall threatened last year. You've got clubs like West Brom, Stoke, QPR, and Birmingham City that are really pushing to ta to be in a position. To go for that second spot. And if you remember last year, that second spot in terms of automatic promotion, you had Coventry really run away with the championship last year, over the last couple of months. It was kind of a fate accompli that they would get that top spot. But the second spot wasn't really taken care of until the last couple of weeks. And so who's in that group that could really push for the second spot and also push West Ham? If you look at those clubs, I think the one that's most interesting and the people who have been calling out. Because of their win on the weekend is Birmingham City. And for me, the Birmingham City victory, th three-nothing over QPR on the weekend, it was a real statement win from that club. If you remember coming into the season, how we thought about Birmingham City, it was a real make or break season. and they had to figure out how they were going to win and play at a high level at this level again, and not just feel like they deserved. To win and deserve to be at this level, if that makes sense. And the success that they're starting to build as a club is really starting to feel sustainable. You know, they've got people like Liam Miller who scored a couple of goals on the weekend on the wing. They're playing this really high-press game and direct style of football, creating lots of turnovers. They created two turnovers for the first two goals against QPR on the weekend. And they play fast when they get the ball. And they've got guys that can do that. They've also got really strong. Tall center backs who can come forward and score from set pieces. They don't have this over reliance on one player or one style of playing that they used to have when they really relied on Jay Stansfield almost too much as that kind of talisman goal scorer in League One to get them back up and promoted. And so they're in a really interesting position now. you've also got someone like James Beadle, who they went out and got and is now looking like he's coming of age. He's playing in a decisive way. and so there's just there's a lot of really good. good momentum coming for them. And I thought that game against QPR was a real, a real tone setter in terms of those were two clubs who could be part of this group. you know, when you think about the Middlesbrough, Swanseas, Southamptons pushing for that second spot. Birmingham and QPR were both positioned from a, you know, in terms of the table to be one of those clubs that was also pushing, pushing for automatic promotion. Birmingham City showed they were a class above QPR. You know, QPR d were sloppy at points, just didn't feel like they had the same sense of of identity and and really not quite the full real deal yet is how they came out of that game against Birmingham City. Birmingham City looks really good. So I think you've got to put them in that group. who else is in that group? You know, we talked previous weeks about West Brom and how well they're doing. I think West Brom and Stoke, if you look at those guys, they they could push, but they've got much thinner squads. and You know, so so they they could be part of this this group looking at automatic promo as well. But Birmingham City is definitely solidifying itself in there as as one of these key challenges. So further down the table, could anyone else make it into that that group? You know, you've got Millwall and Wrexham in terms of the squads they've created and pedigree. If things start to turn right for them, they could go up and and join part of that. If you look at the table, clubs like Blackburn and Sheffield United should be in there, maybe and mentioned. Portsmouth are middle of the table right now and kind of on a bit of a run. so there's there's still obviously a lot to to happen there, but there is this gap, I think, between West Ham and the rest of the clubs. There is a clear kind of second tier here in the second tier starting to form. And and there's lots of clubs vying to to get in there. But Birmingham City is starting to separate itself out and and positioning itself as one of those kind of second tier clubs. Okay, so let's switch to the bottom of the table now. And I the burning question here for me, at when you look at the bottom of the table and you look at those go and look at the belief index on MinosFootball.com and see who the kind of rise and fall of the belief in these different clubs across the season. And there's one that's in this kind of precipitous decline over the last four or five weeks, and that's Norwich City. And the question around Norwich is are they in a funk? Or are they just proving who they truly are? And if it's the latter, that's gonna be absolutely devastating to ownership, who came out at the beginning of the season and said that they should be a top two side. But it might not be quite as surprising to some of the fans. I'm gonna dig into that in a second. But just to kind of zoom back a little bit, there are four clubs right now who are below minus twenty on the belief index in the championship. And I'm taking I'm being generous. I'm taking Sheffield United's right at Minus twenty. So I'm taking them out, but there's four clubs below it. And those four clubs are Burnley, who are minus twenty eight, Preston, negative thirty-one, Norwich, negative thirty-six, down thirteen points this week, and Watford at negative forty. Now, Burnley we talked about extensively last week. Preston, we've covered in previous weeks as well. They're kind of in this reclamation state right now. New manager, but we knew going into the season that this was going to be tough. Lots of issues there. relegation looking, if not inevitable, you know, definitely a a strong possibility right now. And Watford, we know, is in a crisis. We're gonna talk more about them in the coming weeks, about why exactly the off the field situation for Watford is so distressing. But we knew going into the season that fans were already done with Gino Pozzo and didn't believe in the direction of the club. So it's not surprising to see them this low. but Norwich is is really interesting in This bottom group of clubs. You know, they started the season much closer to parity in the belief index, slightly underneath zero, but with plenty of promise in how they'd finished the prior the prior season. And they had a lot of that promise in the first four or five weeks of the season as well. You know, I went back this week and I read my preseason prediction post for them. I was quite bullish on Norwich. I had them finishing in seventh, which is the same place as Bookmakers had them finishing. And their ownership story is a really interesting one to. to dig into as well, with some familiar elements, but also some kind of unique elements around it, and sort of similar to Burnley in some ways. It's again this story of like, I don't think this is necessarily, it's definitely not bad ownership that's happening at Norwich since the takeover in 2024. But I do think one th piece that American owners generally is underesti are are underestimating when they take over these teams is the difficulty of both promotion and staying up. And I don't think that fans I know that fans are not taking those things for granted. And if you look right now between what fans are saying and what ownership expectations were set at at the start of the season, you know, again, ownership saying that Norwich should be a top two side in the championship. When you go and look at what fans are saying about Norwich's most recent performances, very few of them are surprised. And very few of them are saying this is a kind of the sky is falling. They're saying they've got to stick with Clement, a lot of them, and they're saying that This is something they expected. They expected that this was going to be a rocky season. And we're at the stage right now where you've got people like Clement saying we've got to just keep going and kind of gotta keep push pushing through this. You know, they lost one nil to Portsmouth at home on the weekend. The goal was a penalty. You know, they had so many chances to score in that game that you have to look at the way they're playing and saying they are being a little bit unlucky. But, you know, Philip Clement came out and said that they're playing hard on the pitch still. I don't know that that's completely true. And a lot of fans and analysts are disagreeing with that. I think what's happened is that that this is a club that has been built on this strategy by Clement of playing this really attractive and aggressive brand of football. And when you do that, you're going to be on a high wire and your highs are going to be high and your lows are going to be low. And a few weeks ago, they lost their, or maybe almost a month ago now, just before the international break, they lost their goal scorer. motore and they're now left in a position where they're trying to kind of cobble together that front line. And when the goals aren't coming, they don't have a system which is, you know, really geared around turning losses into draws and draws into wins. And that's what I think we saw in the Portsmouth game was that that was a game they should have won. and I think that the Norwich fans would feel like they should have won. And they don't have a system and a structure that's able to do that. So that brings us to Clement and you know, some people calling for his his head, although fewer people calling for his head that you might find than you might find at a different club. A lot of people are saying they've got to stay the course with him. I think that's because fans have seen what the good really looks like with Philip Clement, that he's got this attractive brand of football. You know, one of the comments that I saw this week that was really interesting was someone suggesting that he should go and and be the general manager, the sporting director of the club. And they should bring in a manager who can get wins. I think that's a really revealing statement and and, you know, a really interesting statement. What's really being said there is that fans appreciate the idealistic nature of Clement and that this this attractive way that he wants to play the game, but they want a manager who can look at that pragmatically and say, okay, this is the way we want to play the game, but these are the people we have, and this is how we're gonna get draws and wins. And Norwich is at this really Interesting point in their season right now where they have to start turning some of these things into wins. They do not want to dig this hole too deep. If you think about how many games are still to be played, you know, 30 odd games, 30 or more games, there's still a lot of football to be played, and you wouldn't expect Norwich to be in this relegation zone. But they're at a point here where the the plan they started with, with both Clermont and and the sporting director, Ben Nappa. Their plan of having young players, fit players who can play this high risk, hard, fast way of football, it's not turning into wins for them. And so how are they going to do that? And, you know, if you're going to play this high flying way of football, but you're not going to win, then you're going to dig a hole that's eventually going to end in the manager being fired and potentially the club being relegated. And that's something that ownership, you know, when ownership comes out at the start of the season and says we expect to be top two, how much appetite are they going to be having to being this far down in the in the standings? And so this is a a a club that has, you know, to my reckoning of it, a real split in their belief between that fan base and ownership and what happens in the middle there is going to be really interesting to see what happens. but they need to find a way to to move past that and, you know, see how this group of players who is I don't think you could look at this group of players and say this is the third worst squad that's out there. And I don't think you can look at Clement saying this guy isn't is not a capable manager. So, how do they turn that into, you know, results that actually mirror that on the pitch? The group that's above this group in terms of belief are clubs like Sheffield United, who I spoke about, Derby County, Charlton, Bristol City. in terms of the t the table, you've got Derby, Cardiff City, Lincoln City, and then Bolton, Wrexham, Portsmouth, kind of above those, those clubs. So it's an interesting group that's kind of jostling. I don't think there's a lot for us to pull out and say these are the the clubs that definitely look like they're gonna get relegated right now. But I think when you look at that group and you look at the belief index, you see that Norwich City is at this kind of pivot point and we have to see where they go from here. Okay, let's check in on lower leagues and outside the championship and and what's happening down there. I took some time this week to go and watch some highlights and and catch a couple of games from League One and League Two and see what's going on. So in League One, you've got Stockport, who is top of the table, and are kind of making that move that they'd wanted to make a couple of years ago, or at least that narratives would tell you they wanted to make a couple of years ago when they got promotion to League One. When they were kind of on that Wrexham track and this the media kind of set up this this position the two clubs next to each other because they played each other and and were kind of promoted along the same track. Stockport, you know, quote unquote stalled out in League One. Still a enormo enormous success they've had over the past five years. And they're doing it in this in this way that is perhaps, you know, more resilient and and more sustainable over time. And so They're making a great move right now on top of the table in League One. Leicester City are officially up for sale, but the big news there is that Russell Martin's finally put Harry Souter, also known as Australia's Minister of Defense, back in the side. They've won back to back games. You know, if you're a betting person, you probably wouldn't be putting your money on Leicester getting immediate promotion back to the championship this season. But they are still one of the most fascinating stories. In League One, because of a combination of, you know, Russell Martin and his kind of outspoken nature and and who he is as a manager. You've got ownership and, you know, all of the money that's been invested into the training facility and Leicester City as a club, their heritage, you know, all these different pieces. And then you've got the results that are kind of middling at the moment, I would say, is how Leicester fans would describe it on the pitch. So a lot happening around Leicester, a lot of noise. You know, Oxford relegated last year and Sheffield Wednesday. They're both sitting seventh and sixth in the table, respectively, and positioned to potentially make a run. So a lot happening there in league one. In league two, Barnett are in second spot after promo after their promotion from the National League last year. You know, Barnett are just such an awesome story. They're one of the smallest clubs in the EFL by far, you know, almost as as small as Accrington Stanley. They had two near misses and they finally got promoted last season as champions of the National League into League Two. And then in the summer, they just completely revitalized their squad, which had to happen from a financial perspective. They're looking to raise money off these, these players who'd gotten that promotion. Brought in some smart signings. You got guys like Kabongo Shimonga, who's this lower league journeyman. He scored coming and scored eight goals so far this season. They're kind of sailing along right now in second spot. They lost yesterday to Swindon Town, but before that, they had not lost since March. And Dean Brennan, their manager, who's just this kind of incredible character, as there are so many of these kind of guys in and across the EFL and National League pyramid, but he came out and said yesterday, after they'd lost for the first time since March, I think the players let themselves down and they let me down. I love that. So phenomenal. So so many so many interesting things happening there at Barnett. I went down a bit of a Barnett rabbit hole yesterday, dug into the bees, the hive stadium, in edge where sixty five hundred people, three sided ground. anyway, lots to lots to to learn about there. I'm gonna du dig a little bit more into Barnett football. Just find it more and more captivating. York City, who got promoted last year as well, they're near the top of the table too, after that crazy finish to the season last year. And then Top of League Two is Salford City, which of course is is famous for being owned by the guys from Manchester United. and maybe infamously when they came in, Paul Scholes, Gary Neville, Nikki Butt changed the club colors to be more like Manchester United. And then this offseason switched them back, rebranded back to their old colors, and then all of a sudden this squad is top of the table. And have won their last five games. I think actually six games they've won. I don't think it's that. I mean, Salford City's been building for a long time. And of course, I forgot about Bex, of course, who's involved. but they've been building sustainably for a long time and have seemingly a good operation there and were near the top of the table last year. So, you know, really good stuff coming there, good stuff coming from these lower leagues, and as the season progresses here on Minnows. We're gonna look more and more into those lower leagues, into the FA Cup, the big upsets, and start to track some of these, some of these bigger movements. So we look down, let's now look up at the Premier League. And I'm interested here in seeing how are Minnows and Underdogs performing in the Premier League? And that starts with a a really fundamental question, which I think is hard to answer, which is: how many clubs at the Premier League level can we still call Minnows? So if you look at it at a from a financial perspective, you know, if you lay out just the club value based on if you go to transfer market and you look at club value, which is basically the roster value, how many clubs can of those can you say that they are true minnow clubs and underdog clubs? Well, you know, if you compare them to clubs in League One and League Two, none of them, but you can definitely say from just a pure financial perspective that The clubs that were promoted last year, for example, are still Minnows up against the Manchester Cities, although let's let's put maybe put their finances to the side, but up against the Liverpool's, you know, Man United to the world. So you've got Coventry City, Ipswich Town, definitely Hull. You know, Hull was such an unexpected promotion last year. We can definitely say they're underdogs. Then you've got all the other kind of criteria that you have when you when I build out the Minnows Belief Index, for example. You've got a financial back, you know, criteria function of that, but you've also got their heritage, their history, the socioeconomic info of their surrounding area and their fan base. But I think you can easily say that, you know, in a in addition to those three clubs, Hull, Coventry City, Ipswich Town, clubs like Fulham, Everton, Leeds, Sunderland, maybe Nottingham Forest. Probably not Crystal Palace, probably not Bournemouth. You know, you probably stop there around Nottingham Forest from a pure financial perspective are still minnows. And it probably deserves me running like a full belief index over the whole thing to pull out the detail. But I did pull one table this week week, which was I'm gonna dig into this in my Substack post today, but it's the Premier League value versus their standings. So it's just looking at what is the performance of the club versus the assets they have to work with. And if you run a table over that, the top of the table is Hull, who is ninth in the table right now, stunningly ninth. and but has a squad value at in the very bottom of 20th of 295 million pounds. For context, the squad value of you know Manchester City is 1.5 billion, the squad value of Arsenal is 1.4 billion, Chelsea 1.15 billion. So this is a By a factor of of six or so, or five. This is the significantly more less valued club. The other interesting clubs that are in there are Brighton, Hove Albion, which, you know, is is half the value of a Manchester City, but we're not going to call them a minnow. But, you know, clubs like Everton, Leeds, Ipswich Town, they're all overperforming and being incredibly efficient with the way that they are, that their value that they've put into their clubs is performing this year. You know, the story of this EPL so far from a Minnow's perspective has to be this kind of overf over performance of clubs like Hull sitting in ninth, Ipswich sitting in tenth, and even Coventry, who have had two wins recently that's kind of stopped their tough slide to start the season. And then the renewed struggles of clubs like Fulham and Sunderland. You Sunderland at the bottom of the table, Fulham really struggling, and you know All of those pieces, when you then combine it with the impending potential relegation of Manchester City and what that would do for lower leagues, makes for a really interesting story around the Premier League so far this year. You know, so often you see those three promoted clubs just going straight up into the Premier League and occupying those bottom three spaces kind of from the beginning and then just trying to get out of it. That's not the story that we have so far in the Premier League right now. You've got clubs like Hull and Ipswich Town who are really sort of, you know, holding their own so far. in the Premier League season. So exciting to see what's happening there and we'll have more on that in coming weeks. So let's look ahead then to this weekend. And we've got some great fixtures on the horizon. Some ones that really stand out to me. Portsmouth takes on Millwall. You know, the Portsmouth story's so interesting. John Masinho almost got in a fight on the sidelines after their one-one draw with Wolves on Tuesday night, making that makeup game they had. Portsmouth have are finding ways to win and draw, you know, doing that thing that I was talking about that Norwich is not doing right now. And they're kind of They've got a lot of momentum going into this game. Millwall is almost the opposite. You know, we think about it, it's becoming further and further into our memory, this start that Millwall had when they really looked unbeatable over those first three or four weeks. They keep saying, you know, it's injuries, it's these challenges, et cetera. Well, it is continuing to be a problem for them where they're really having trouble keeping up with that sort of second tier of teams that I was talking about at the top of the podcast. So Portsmouth versus Millwall. At Portsmouth is a great game. West Ham takes on Southampton. That'll be a fantastic battle of potentially the two most talented squads in the championship. We talked about West Ham a lot, but Southampton is obviously a club that's that's packed, a squad that's packed with talent. And so that's going to be a great top of the table battle. Southampton's still feeling the effects of those four points in the fact that they're further down the table than they'd like to be. Lincoln City takes on Burnley. You Lincoln City's on a bit of a slide here. And in order for them to stay above that relegation zone and stay into safety, they need three points home to Burnley. And they've also struggled at home this year. So this is kind of a a get right opportunity for them. Whereas Burnley coming into this has had a slightly mixed, better than than they did for the first eight weeks, but a slightly mixed return from the international break. And they would have circled this this fixture as one that they must win. So that's a great game. Blackburn Rovers goes to sorry, their home at Ewood Park to Wrexham. Wrexham won 4-1 on the weekend, but it was still kind of a slightly sloppy showing. And so can Wrexham pull it all together, go away and win at Blackburn, which I'm gonna have more on Blackburn Rovers in the next couple of weeks. Their start to this season has been potentially one of the most surprising stories in the championship. So that's a great game. Stoke City takes on Bristol City in a battle to see if Stoke can kind of keep that momentum going, see if Bristol City can maybe build some momentum they don't have. And Norwich is a way to Charlton. And that's two clubs that desperately also need that win as well. You know, Charlton had such a fantastic first four weeks and have really stalled out. Norwich City City, as we talked about earlier, on a massive slide. So lots of great fixtures this weekend. Check out minnowsfootball.com. We'll be back next week with more podcasts and more content. And for now, thanks for listening.